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A lot of young men are going to be made awfully rich today. The Jays have yet to come to terms with 24 of their 55 June draft picks. Obviously a number of the later round picks will not sign but the Jays have a number of big fish left in the pond. Let's take a look.



 Round 1- Tyler Beede RHP - Unsigned
1S- Kevin Comer RHP - SIGNED $1.65 mil
2- Daniel Norris LHP -  SIGNED $2.0 mil

5- Andrew Chin LHP - Unsigned
7- Christian Lopes SS - SIGNED $800 K (per Callis)
9- Andrew Suarez LHP
10- Aaron Garza RHP
12- John Norwood OF
13- Matt Dean 3B- SIGNED $737,500 (per Callis; h/t D. King)
14- Cole Wiper RHP
15- Cody Glenn LHP
16- Richard Prigatano 1B
19- Luke Weaver RHP
20- Joel Seddon RHP
22- Aaron Nola RHP
23- K'Shawn Smith SS
31- Austin Nola SS
35- Jerrick Suiter RHP
39- Chris Cox RHP
43- Jake Eliopoulos LHP
45- Johnny Coy 3B
47- Austin Davis 3B
48- Jake Wakamatsu OF
49- Charlie LaMar LHP

Please feel free to use this thread to post updates on Jays signings, rumours, or anything else of note on this frantic Monday.

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Forkball - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#240929) #
So basically if they don't get Beede and Norris it's a disappointment, if they get one of the two it's solid, and if they get both it's great?  My guess is those odds are 10%, 60% and 30% respectively.

Are there others on the list that are top 50 talents that have a chance (even if slim) of signing?

jester00 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#240930) #
I thought Dean had signed?  Is that just unconfirmed?
Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#240931) #

Dean's twitter suggested he had signed but there has been no announcement.

Jim Callis was on the BA podcast on Friday and he suggested the Jays could spend a record amount on this season's draft.  He started with Beede, Norris and Comer who could cost $8m and then added a lot of the later picks who all want close to $1m.  He thought the Jays could get up close to $18m if they sign a lot of their guys.

sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#240932) #
From AA's comments the other day it really seems like AA is debating the long-term consequences of offering Beede $3 million+. It seems like this is the major deterring factor.

I guess we can also conclude that AA isn't entirely convinced hard slotting will be coming into effect. I tend to agree with this. I can see some ceiling on contracts or something of the sort, but a hard slot seems to be unlikely.

I know baseball now has for years had to compete with other professional sports for athletes. It's something that is never lost in the Commissioner's Office. One advantage it has over the other sports is the ability to offer huge bonuses and dollar figures to teenagers. Not to say anything about the greater potential for future earnings that baseball offers over the other North American sports. Baseball, however, has a greater "flame-out" rating than the other sports. So, I think baseball will try to find that balance between keeping bonuses high, yet within the realm of reasonable.

So, in three years time, if Tyler Beede so chooses to turn down the Blue Jays offer and attend Vanderbilt University, he may be in line for the $3+ million he wants. He will, however, have to be selected in the top fifteen picks of the draft, something that is far from guaranteed.

Beede looks to be an exceptional pitcher, with all reports indicating that he possesses all the attributes and tools to succeed at whatever level he chooses to pitch at. I do hope the Jays and Beede come to a compromise, but from the sounds of it both sides will have to adjust their price.
sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#240933) #
Re: Gerry

It will be interesting to follow today's happenings. I'm sure all franchises will be keeping one eye on the Jays' doings. I think there is a lot at stake here for the Jays. On the one hand they could have an epic day as Callis has noted. Sign everyone and break records. However, come next year, if they employ a similar drafting strategy, a lot of prospects will be looking for similar deals and the Jays could be breaking there own (and the league's) spending record year after year. That's a slippery slope that I'm sure lots here (including myself) would love to see, but is unreasonable.

On the other hand, the Jays could really play hardball with some of their picks, signing some, but not all. If that's the case, this draft and the strategy behind it will likely have to re-evaluated. Any draft in which a team fails to sign several of their top picks must be deemed a failure.

Either way, the Jays 2011 Draft will be interesting for all. My two cents. The Jays sign the vast majority of their prospects, just eclipsing the signings record. However, they fail to sign two or three of their top ten round picks.
braden - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#240934) #
Perfect Game is reporting that Aaron Garza likely won't sign and will go to U of Houston.
Paul D - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#240935) #
I hope they sign Eliopoulos.   In fact, I can't belive he hasn't signed yet.
damos - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#240937) #
Still hours away & there's certainly lots that can change with one phone call but Beede's father makes it sound like Vandy is the choice.

http://twitter.com/#!/baseballifer11

Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#240938) #
Until midnight tonight I am assuming that all twitters from draftees or their family are composed and issued by their agents/advisors.
Ducey - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#240940) #

Hasn't Eliopoulos struggled? This is from BA last April after he left his college team:

 Nothing clicked for Eliopoulos at Chipola, on or off the field. He went just 1-2, 8.44, though he did have 24 strikeouts in 21 innings. He also walked 21, and one opposing coach who saw Eliopoulos this season told BA today that while Elipoulos "kept us off-balance, he didn't look like a second-round arm. I heard he threw 92 (mph) in high school, but he didn't do that against us."

hypobole - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#240942) #
The Jays knew Beede's asking price when they drafted him. They knew he had a Vandy commitment. If they didn't want to pay his asking price, or close to it, there were plenty of Panik's and Gilmartin's who would sign for slot or close to it. The Jays also knew this was a strong and deep draft that happens rarely. Drafting players and then not signing them would yield a lower, and unprotected, draft choice in a weaker draft. So where is the logic in drafting tough signs only to draw lines in the sand with them? I have to believe AA and the Jays know what they're doing and will get their top picks signed.
Moe - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#240943) #
There was an article in which Beede said he was flipping back and forth all summer.  It could be that the Jays loose out because he changed his mind. 

Now with Norris, it was probably more a crap-shot the Jays felt they could afford in the 2nd round.  And there have been much fewer stories about him. 


 
D. King - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#240944) #
Callis just tweeted that Dean is official, but no dollar amount released yet.
smcs - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#240945) #
Law says Dean signed for $737,000.
D. King - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#240946) #
Dean's bonus is $737,500.
PeteMoss - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#240947) #
Not being in these guys shoes... I just can't believe anyone would turn down a contract that guarantees you millions when it comes right down to it. If you go to college... who knows what happens. Just seems crazy that someone would turn down a ton of cash to roll the dice on their next two years, particularly pitchers who have a very high injury risk.
Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#240948) #

Here is what is happening today ..... Beede says he wants $3m.  The Jays have offered something less, lets say $2m.  The Jays think that Beede can't turn down the big bucks, going to college is too risky.  The Beede camp think the Jays don't want to not sign their first pick and have to wait until next year for a replacement.  So each side thinks the other should blink.  The pressure on each side has been ramping up and unless there is a deal it will ramp up until 11:30 tonight.  The Jays think Beede must be getting nervous, they are waiting for him to call and say I will take $2.8m.  Beede's side think the Jays should be getting nervous and to ramp up the pressure they fire off a few tweets about Vanderbilt. 

Who will call first?  Who will change their offer?  It might not happen until late tonight.  Today both sides are waiting for the other to blink first or to see if there is an acceptable middle ground.  For all we know there are no ongoing conversations.  I recall a case in the last year or two where the negotations started about 9pm or 10pm on the evening of the deadline day.

So without a listening devide in AA's office I have to assume that both sides want a deal, both sides know the approx. dollars required to sign Beede, and the deal will get done tonight.

 

sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#240949) #
Love it Gerry!
Marc Hulet - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#240950) #
Here is some info to help put Toronto's draft in perspective... According to Baseball America and *entering* the 2011 high school and college seasons, here are rankings from the Top 100 lists for both college and high school prospects:

College 100:
9. John Stilson (actually selected 108th overall by Toronto)
69. Austin Nolan (949th)
74. Andy Burns (349th)
78. Anthony DeSclafani (199th)
82. Johnny Coy (1,369th)

High School 100:
2. Daniel Norris (74th)
19. Tyler Beede (21st)
30. Dwight Smith Jr. (53rd)
35. Kevin Comer (57th)
38. Andrew Suarez (289th)
43. Christian Lopes (229th)
60. Matt Dean (409th)
64. Jerrick Suiter (1,069th)
69. Cody Glenn (469th)
70. Jacob Anderson (35th)
72. Thomas Robson (139th)
75. Cole Wiper (439th)
91. John Norwood (379th)
92. Aaron Nola (679th)

When people say that Toronto went aggressively after talent like no other organization, they're not kidding. In most of the cases, the players slid in the draft because other teams knew they would be very tough ($$$) signs. There are some incredible value picks in this draft. Toronto selected 14% of the available Top 100 prep talent (according to the pre-season ranking by BA).
Smaj - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#240951) #
It would be foolish not to be able to sign your top picks from this alleged deep & talented draft class. From a signing bonus standpoint, $18-$20M is the price for one top free agent's annual salary thus dispersing the salary over a slew of draft picks seems like a wise investment for a team whose stated goal is to develop young controllable superstars (or trade for them). In regards to setting draft signing bonus records, I hope AA does what is required today to sign all key draft picks. From a precedence standpoint, unlikely the Jays will have this esteemed class or number of picks in the near future to be overly concerned with precedence. I really find it irrational for AA to have any concerns with MLB draft slotting given the nature of spending in the AL East. It would be extremely disappointing to see these top picks go unsigned based on finances alone. I'm hoping this draft strategy is followed to its completion with ample signing announcements of this premium talent by the end of day!
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#240953) #
For the player (any first round high school pitcher), it's really an insurance problem.  I imagine, but do not know, that the player cannot get adequate insurance against the risk of injury.  I wonder if (down the road) the players' association could offer insurance on a non-profit basis, at least for slot.  It would be a good way for the union to promote itself with influential new members.  Maybe such a thing already exists.
eldarion - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#240954) #
I tend to agree with Gerry's reasoning that a deal will get done. I can't help but think AA's in a tough position; his strategy for developing the Jays into a perennial contender is open and transparent. He's building through the draft and IFA signings to acquire enough top flight to either trade for established star-level talent or develop in-house stars. That costs money. If I'm an agent, I'm going to squeeze AA for every penny - and more. I suppose it's not surprising these negotiations are going down to the wire.
Kelekin - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#240955) #
If the Jays signed Comer, Norris, and Beede, and then called it a day I'd be more than satisfied.  I do like Suarez and Lopes as well though, but it certainly sounds like Suarez is going to university.

If we can't sign one or two of Comer, Norris, and Beede, I wonder who the Jays would take a run at.  Wiper? That'd be interesting.  I imagine Suiter is a no go at this point.
Kelekin - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#240957) #
From the always excellent Metafour, over at RealGM:

"BHallESPN Brendan Hall
Blue Jays 5th round pick LHP Andrew Chin of Newton will not be signing, and will enroll at BC
2 minutes ago

DidierMorais Didier Morais
Blue Jays' 10th round pick and UH commit Aaron Garza says he's now "most likely to attend UH" #txhsbase

Chin was apparently offered $275k."
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#240958) #
One possible negotiating advantage for the Jays is the sheer number of high picks they had this year. You could argue that there is no "must-sign" player among their picks, because even if you scratch a player like Beede, they should still end up with a lot of talent (they've already inked some high-risk, high-reward, tough-sign players).

That said, it would be great to see the Jays sign all of their top picks, including Beede, Comer and Norris. I expect the front office to go after them aggressively.

Interesting tweet from Daniel Norris an hour ago. Sounds as though signing with the Jays is at least a possibility:

"Lord, today rests in your hands. No matter what. Your Will be done. #totalfaith"
Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#240959) #
Does anybody here have a "God" twitter handle?  You could send a message to Norris.  That includes the real God, if he is reading this, or even if he just gets it because he doesn't need to read things to understand them...you get the idea.
Kelekin - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#240960) #
God loves twitter hashtags. #truestory

Lylemcr - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#240961) #
According to Marc's list, Norris is ranked higher than Beede.  Why isn't he signing?  And what is the likelyhood?
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#240962) #
Per Jon Heyman:

"#bluejays said to be "millions apart'' w/ vandy recruits tyler beede, hs rhp (No. 21 overall), and kevin comer, hs rhp (57)"

http://mobile.twitter.com//SI_Jonheyman
Ryan Day - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#240963) #
Norris apparently priced himself at about $3.9 million, which scared a lot of teams off.
damos - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#240964) #
Heyman is pretty funny / awful when it comes to his Blue Jays information. 
Didn't he have Bautista going to the Giants late last year for a couple of middling infield prospects?
MatO - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#240965) #
Norris apparently priced himself at about $3.9 million, which scared a lot of teams off.
Obviously it was GOD that gave him that price.
Ron - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#240966) #
I almost wanted to puke the other day when Zaun got on his soapbox and said the drafted players were lucky he wasn't in the Players Union anymore because he would be pushing the leadership to put in hard slotting for the draft. He said these players haven't proved anything at the big league level therefore they don't deserve big bonuses. Something tells me Zaun didn't have a problem with no hard slotting when he was drafted.

You know a draft system is flawed when over half of the first round picks won't sign until the day of the deadline. I hope the signing deadline gets pushed up to the end of June in the next CBA. The teams, fans, and players lose under the current system.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#240967) #
Janis Joplin only asked for a Mercedes Benz.  I'd rather listen to her sing the national anthem than to watch these fine young men pitch for the Jays in 2016. No offence, I hope.

Confidential to the young men:  in Canada, invoking the Lord in the midst of high-stakes monetary negotiations is generally seen as unseemly.  It's a little different north of the border, and that is one of the ways. 

China fan - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#240968) #
Sounds like the Norris family motto is:  Praise the Lord and Pass the Loot.
sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#240969) #
The Andrew Chin pick was always an interesting one. Chin was reported to have average stuff with many projecting him to have room to grow. While he would have to really "grow" to get into the first round three years from now, he could feasibly be a third or fourth round pick to a team drafting college players. Even under that scenario he wouldn't be making that much more than now. Even further, Chin is/has just recently had Tommy John Surgery, thus Chin will lose a crucial year of development. So I don't know.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#240970) #
To be fair to Norris, he's a HS grad about to make a life-changing decision. He seems to be expressing his faith in the ultimate outcome either way, not asking for God's help in securing a big contract.
Moe - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#240971) #
I don't know Chin.  But turning down 275k to get a (free) education is much more defensible than 2.75m.  BC is a great school and I have to agree that risking 275k and going to a good university is not a bad choice.


hypobole - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#240972) #
Although I'm an atheist, I have a much less cynical view of Norris. Yes. there is a lot of money involved, but this is a life changing day for these kids, and the pressures on many, especially those with college commitments, are enormous. If they find comfort in their faith, so be it, I'm not going to mock them. As for his asking price, it's more than fair, given the huge profits MLB makes off successful young players, and he certainly has the talent to be a very successful one.
TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#240973) #
I thought someone had said it was a standard provision of pro-contracts that you could get your college paid for regardless? (i.e. the team matches the lost scholarship)
Is this false?
Forkball - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#240974) #
Something tells me Zaun didn't have a problem with no hard slotting when he was drafted.

Being drafted in the 17th round like Zaun isn't terribly lucrative.  He's probably bitter he got next to nothing and players now are getting 6 and 7 figures.
TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#240976) #
On the "God" subject - as one who lives deep in the heart of the Bible belt, i think a lot of you guys are just having a bit of a culture clash and frankly, in a few cases, you come off looking like the lesser person for condescending on the subject.

If you follow all the Jays minor leaguers and draftees on twitter, you will notice that quite a few of them speak in religious terms pretty regularly. I recognize that religion - particularly "worn on sleeve" religion is not fashionable once you get north of - say - the Ohio River, and at times it annoys the crap out of me too (for obvious reasons) but to young men from the Southern U.S. particularly, it's as much a part of their culture as hockey is to a Canadian. Saying things like "it's in God's hands" s as natural to many of them as saying "how ya doing?" for a greeting.

Don't read too much into it. And remind yourself that if you have a guy who's a true-believer, at least you have a guy who's less likely to drink or drug or fight his way out of a career.

(All that said - some tweets I've seen imply that Norris is maybe considering the ministry? it's very fuzzy but I think I've seen some signs. if so that might be a pretty big drag in the other direction unless he realizes that a bit of celebrity ultimately gives him a bigger platform)


Moe - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#240978) #
I thought someone had said it was a standard provision of pro-contracts that you could get your college paid for regardless? (i.e. the team matches the lost scholarship)
Is this false?


I have read that as well.  But the sums you then read about are not the equivalent of a full ride to a top school (I have seen 50-70k).  So the exact wording would be interesting.  It might be that the team has to pay for education but not the full scholarship.  For many picks that's more than the bonus.  In the case of BC, Vanderbilt or Stanford, we are talking $250k for tuition, room and board, books etc for 4 years.


subculture - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#240979) #
It's all fine and in many ways commendable to communicate with your God on a personal level... but to TWEET that on a day where you can sign a multi-millon dollar contract for playing baseball reflects very poorly on him.  He might as well tell AA that you have a choice to be God's tool and give me $4M, or offer any less and be an agent of Satan.

There are millions in the world RIGHT now (think Somalia, and other war-torn or developing countries) that are praying for food and safety to live another day...  this guy has the arrogance (disguised as humility) to TWEET that God has ANYTHING to do with him accepting a multi-million dollar baseball contract!!

Hey Norris, God just posted on your Facebook wall: "Take the 2M that the Jays are offering to you, buy your parents a nicer home and yourself a nice car, and give the rest to Save The Children.  My will be done."
MatO - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#240980) #
I could care less what Norris believes in.  That's his business.  Like Mike Green said it's the mixture of religion and a boatload of cash that makes me queasy.
smcs - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#240981) #
Speaking of top draft picks, the Tigers just acquired Delmon Young.
TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#240982) #
but to TWEET that on a day where you can sign a multi-millon dollar contract for playing baseball reflects very poorly on him.

But that's not at all a fair viewpoint. to begin with, here's the remark in question:

Lord, today rests in your hands. No matter what. Your Will be done. #totalfaith

Only the most hard-core cynical person would read that as an effort to invoke God on his side in these negotiations. I live in that culture too and i assure you that Evangelical Christians say things like that ALL the time. I wouldn't be shocked if I heard it said about whether or not a duded decides to shave his beard today. It is not REMOTELY what you imply it is.

Furthermore, it's far from his first religious tweet. Look at his log:

http://twitter.com/#!/DanielNorris18

DanielNorris18 Daniel Norris
I stand by my position - if you look at his comment as "God will get me the money" or any such thing it is YOU who are being crass and cynical, not him. With all due respect.

I'm not trying to be abrasive I'm just saying - I was raised in this culture, i know how these people think, and I'm trying to give you the voice of experience here. You may find it off-putting, but the kid doesn't mean by it what you are reading into it.

dan gordon - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#240983) #
When AA was interviewed about the signing of Deck McGuire last year, he said that it came right down to the last 5 minutes or so before the deadline, and he really didn't know if McGuire would sign or not, right up until he said yes.  Bit of a poker game.  I imagine it will be the same with Beede tonight.  You make your best offer and hope for the best.  Given the dollar numbers being mentioned, I think it's unlikely they sign all 3 of Beede, Comer and Norris. 
Sano - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#240984) #

Speaking as an evangelical Christian, I certainly understand TamRa's arguments. However, I do think that Norris' tweet can be construed to lessen his responsibility/actions in this whole scenario.  The logic goes like this.  1) The Jays don't offer $3.9 million. 2) Norris takes that to mean that God's telling him he shouldn't be signing for Toronto.  The problem is that interpretation doesn't allow for the possibility that God's telling him to take less money!

 

I agree with you TamRa that his tweet doesn't mean he's invoking God's support for him gaining millions of dollars.  But if he and his advisors are not going to budge from their asking price, then in my mind it implies that Norris' believes God wants him to take $3.9 million and nothing less. 

baagcur - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#240985) #
Ministry & mission work. No matter where I go or what I do I will always serve Drop him like a hot brick. lots of guys wouldn't want to be in the same clubhouse as a passionate evangelical
Sano - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#240986) #

^^^^ That is a ridiculous comment.  1) How do you know? 2) The Jays already have plenty of passionate evangelicals and I've never read anything bad about their clubhouse dynamics (Rajai Davis, Aaron Hill are both evangelical Christians I believe).

Ron - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#240987) #
Being drafted in the 17th round like Zaun isn't terribly lucrative.  He's probably bitter he got next to nothing and players now are getting 6 and 7 figures.

He has taken a very hard line stance for bonuses for drafted players. I just want to know why he wasn't this publicly vocal when he was actually in the Union? Well I guess I will answer my own question and the answer is because he is a hypocrite.


eldarion - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#240988) #
I get that there are a lot of lawyers on this site and that lawyers can be argumentative by nature...but perhaps it would be best to stick to baseball chatter and avoid the religious discourse. :) I get that we're on edge about the signings...but let's not inadvertently get drawn into an off-topic conversation. I realize that I'm only an occasional poster...but my two cents.
sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#240989) #
There's always been something about athletes and their religion that has always bothered me. Take Mariano Rivera. After the crash of Flight AA 587 in 2001 and the revelation that team-mate Enrique Wilson might have been on that flight should events in the World Series had turned out differently, Rivera remarked in the press something to the effect that god was responsible for the world series loss and savings Enrique Wilson. I don't know, I mean, what about those other 200 or so people who died? Those things really bother me.

I have no problem with athletes who invoke their religion or believe that their devotion is in some part a factor in their personal success. It's the constant in your face stuff that is sometimes difficult to bare.

Daniel Norris seems to be deeply religious. Good for him and hopefully if he signs he uses some of the money he earns towards the very good work religious institutions partake in. But yes, I'd agree that it's a little out there to ask his deity for help in getting a higher bonus. (I think that's what he is getting at in his tweets, no?)
Krylian19 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#240990) #

Good lord!!!!

I wish this could be a god-free zone.

All I care about is if these guys sign today...and if god or satan help the negotiations, so be it.  Just sign!

jester00 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#240991) #
Amen!!!!!
TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#240992) #
The logic goes like this.  1) The Jays don't offer $3.9 million. 2) Norris takes that to mean that God's telling him he shouldn't be signing for Toronto.  The problem is that interpretation doesn't allow for the possibility that God's telling him to take less money!

 

I agree with you TamRa that his tweet doesn't mean he's invoking God's support for him gaining millions of dollars.  But if he and his advisors are not going to budge from their asking price, then in my mind it implies that Norris' believes God wants him to take $3.9 million and nothing less. 


THIS i do not disagree with.

greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#240993) #
Callis's latest tweet:

"More details on the #BlueJays signing 13th-rder Matt Dean for $737.5k: http://ht.ly/63HjT Jays have much more in store. #mlbdraft"

This is encouraging, I think. Callis is a reputable source and seems to have the inside track on a lot of Jays info. My guess is that he knows of some pending signings but has agreed not to disclose for the time being.
subculture - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#240994) #
Tamra, I appreciate your feedback and the context you place it in.

My point was not that Norris is hypocritical, money-grubbing, or a crass negotiator.  I don't know if he is any of these things, and from your description it appears more likely that he's a good kid who appreciates what has been given to him in life.

Perhaps he just needs to understand how his tweets might be received by people that are not from the same background or culture...  many inflammatory, racist, and sexist statements have been made with harmless intentions by naive and innocent folks.  But that doesn't mean the people being offended by those statements are necessarily oversensitive... they have their own background, culture and context too.  As he matures and is exposed to other perspectives, hopefully he's open-minded enough to value and learn from those before pushing his own. 

Eldarion, you're right and this will be my last post about this...

Ryan Day - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#240995) #
I just want to know why he wasn't this publicly vocal when he was actually in the Union?

He wasn't a broadcaster when he was in the union. There aren't usually a lot of reporters asking backup catchers for their opinion on the draft.
TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#240996) #
Drop him like a hot brick. lots of guys wouldn't want to be in the same clubhouse as a passionate evangelical

Yeah. Cause we all know everyone hates Tony Fernandez
stevieboy22 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#240997) #

This religion talk is painful...

Let's go back to debating about the rankings of prospects we have never seen before!

Matthew E - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#240998) #
Given the dollar numbers being mentioned, I think it's unlikely they sign all 3 of Beede, Comer and Norris.

The way the Jays seem to be doing business these days, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they do sign all of them.
eldarion - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#240999) #

Tweet by Daniel Norris around 20 minutes ago: "Going on a hike to get my mind of things!"

Sounds like a young man with a big decision to make...or waiting to hear back given his last counter-offer.

Ron - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#241000) #
He wasn't a broadcaster when he was in the union. There aren't usually a lot of reporters asking backup catchers for their opinion on the draft.

As a player, he was in a position to come out and say there needs to be hard slotting to reduce bonuses which should be redistributed to veterans. He doesn't need a reporter to ask him this question to address the issue.
MatO - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#241001) #

THIS i do not disagree with.

I think we're all on the same page.  I have no trouble with Norris extracting money from Rogers and even using some of it for a good cause if he so wishes.

Moe - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#241002) #
Since the issue came up: It's up to the player and the team to decide how much scholarship they get
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/scholarship.jsp?content=guide_post_20041003

Kevin Ahrens got $60k, which given today's tuition rates would be enough to cover 3 years of tuition at Texas A&M (where he had a scholarship) but not the 4th year or room and board.  In other words, if you have a top school offer (eg. BC like Chin) and are not offered 1m, it makes sense to go to school.  Worst case, you get a 250k education for playing baseball. 

Also, remember that graduate from those types of schools also get lucrative jobs if they have the "right" major.  So 4-5 years that you spend in the minors cause plenty of foregone earnings. 


sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#241003) #
I hope someone in the Jays front office has taken note of Batter's Box in the last hour and realized we need a signing announcement.
Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#241004) #
I am sure that they are on it.  "Tony, Batters Box has degenerated into conversations about politics, religion and sex.  We better sign Joe Bloggs to a major league contract, stat." (Joe Bloggs is no relation to Wade Boggs). 
smcs - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#241005) #
Keep waiting. The big signings won't come until after the 4th inning of tonight's game in Seattle.
MatO - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#241006) #
Baseball is the only sport that hasn't eaten their young yet.  I suspect the players will fall for the argument that if we didn't have to pay all these unproven players all this money then there will be more left for you.  Baseball draftees are certainly the farthest from and least likely to become union members.
MatO - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#241007) #
This site had a song of the day and cuttlefish prizes at one time.
92-93 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#241008) #
I still don't understand not drafting Josh Bell. The worst thing that can happen is you don't sign him and you get that pick back next year. He could have been selected with the Musgrove pick.
Lylemcr - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#241010) #

There are enough places on the internet to talk about religion.  I did not come to this site to hear about it.  If "God" gives Norris a 90+ fastball, pray away IMO.  Just sign!

metafour - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#241011) #
I still don't understand not drafting Josh Bell. The worst thing that can happen is you don't sign him and you get that pick back next year. He could have been selected with the Musgrove pick.


There is like a 3% chance he signs...you're basically throwing a pick away.  Yeah, you get it back next year, but next year its unprotected.  There is no point in drafting someone who you almost surely wont sign with a high pick.
Ryan Day - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#241012) #
As a player, he was in a position to come out and say there needs to be hard slotting to reduce bonuses which should be redistributed to veterans.

As a player, it was his job to squat in the dirt and catch. As far as I'm aware, he wasn't outspoken about anything - I never heard him criticize other players or managers when he was playing, something he does regularly now that he's paid to sit in front of the camera and offer his opinions on baseball issues.
Matthew E - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#241013) #
As far as I'm aware, he wasn't outspoken about anything - I never heard him criticize other players or managers when he was playing

I think he was mixed up in the whole Shea Hillenbrand thing, if you want to count that.
earlweaverfan - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#241014) #
As someone with strong faith, but who sees this as preferably very personal, I have often wondered about the behaviour of some Christian athletes when they have made a big hit, pointing up to the sky in deference to God.  Initially, I thought that this signal was pretty arrogant.  It seemed to be saying that God was with me, which is why I hit that home run.  Was God not with the pitcher, too?

But then, I realized that it might just mean, whatever I achieve, I owe my success and my skills to my Creator.  This would be the opposite of arrogance, but rather could be the deepest form of humility.

Then again, I thought of the fact that Christian athletes seem to make that sign only after a great offensive achievement and almost never a defensive one.  Does that mean God is responsible for offensive skills, but not for defensive skills?  Or that defence is the purview of a lesser God?

Finally, I thought it interesting that these athletes always point to the sky, as if that was where God most predictably might be found.  Yet in other contexts, evangelicals often speak of the need to accept God in your heart.  Why wouldn't they point to their hearts as being the ideal place to locate God?

Ah well, I most appreciate the point SANO made about responsibility.  In the end, Norris and the others will be making their own choices and should not pass the accountability off to God.  There is a well-known phrase from St. Teresa of Avila (1515-1582):  "Christ has no other hands and feet but yours". 

God is not intervening in contract signings, in some people boarding airplanes and others not, nor even in giving the World Series to the Yankees so often.  (That is actually the best evidence that God is inactive in that sphere.)


ayjackson - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#241015) #

The worst thing that can happen is you don't sign him and you get that pick back next year. He could have been selected with the Musgrove pick.

97% chance you end up with Joe Musgrove's equivalent next year.  Is that 3% worth a year?

Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#241016) #
MatO, isn't Janis Joplin's "Mercedes Benz" good enough?
dan gordon - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#241017) #
Speaking of players not signing with Toronto, I see that Canadian James Paxton is ripping it up in AA ball, with an ERA under 2.00.  Sickels has an interesting little article on him today, saying he's one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, can be a #2 guy in Seattle's rotation, and could be there next year.  Seattle signed him for about $925,000, about $75,000 more than the Jays offered him. 
92-93 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#241018) #
Joe Musgrove was a nobody heading into the draft. So yes, that 3% is worth getting a Musgrove/Syndergaard type pitcher into your system one year later, IMO.
MatO - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#241019) #
You're right Mike.  I must make amends.
ZekeBella - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#241020) #

 "This site had a song of the day and cuttlefish prizes at one time"

 I don't have prizes and I don't know what a cuttlefish is but for a song of the day, here's a few: Tom Petty's "The Waiting (is the hardest part)" or the classic In the Midnight Hour.The effort  to sign Beede alone could be themed by the Kinks "All Day and All of the Night". Maybe Beede is singing "If I Had 3 Million Dollars".

Ron - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#241021) #
I think he was mixed up in the whole Shea Hillenbrand thing, if you want to count that.

Yep. Zaun ripped into Hillenbrand on the Fan 590 after the whole Gibby/Hillenbrand story came out.

He was also very outspoken when he tried he explain how his name got into the Mitchell Report. Even to this day I still get a chuckle out of his excuse. His story was the equivalent of a teenager telling his teacher his dog ate his homework project. He should look at the mirrow before ripping into drafted players and how they don't deserve big bonuses. Did Zaun deserve his pay after cheating?
metafour - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#241022) #
Joe Musgrove was a nobody heading into the draft

You cant be serious.
Spifficus - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#241023) #
It says something to me that the team renowned as having the most aggressive draft ("If the Blue Jays were any more aggressive in the draft they'd be punching someone with every pick" - Kevin Goldstein... I love that line) didn't take a chance on Bell. What good is that 3% if it's 3% to pay $8M for what you perceive to be a $3M talent? That's the draft equivalent to the Worth deal; good-not-great talent signed to a great contract.
sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#241024) #
Joe Musgrove was a nobody heading into the draft. Easy there trooper. He certainly was someone and he plays for the good guys.
Spifficus - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#241025) #

Bah! Werth!

Anyway, the Jays have good odds of setting the record for draft spending this year. The only question people are wondering is by how much (some estimates are that if they get most guys signed it'll be around $18M, if I remember right). I'd say they've done more than enough without taking the minuscule chance on Bell.

Mike Green - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#241026) #
As for the cuttlefish, how about this one?


92-93 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#241027) #
I think it's pretty obvious what I mean when I say "nobody" in this context. Musgrove was an overdraft, as evidenced by his under slot, immediate signing. The team would have lost nothing by selecting Bell with that pick and seeing if he would sign on terms they are comfortable with.

And yes, I'm serious metafour. About as serious as you were when you told us Daniel Norris and Anthony Ranaudo would not make it to the Blue Jays 2nd pick.
92-93 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#241028) #

Anyway, the Jays have good odds of setting the record for draft spending this year.

Just like they were going to spend 16m last year, or like how they were going to take a step back in 2010 to move forward in 2011. I'll believe these things when they happen, and until then it's just front office speak.

Spifficus - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#241029) #
Well, they're at around $5M now with 7 picks unsigned in the first 10 rounds, including Beede, Norris and Comer, as well as a host of high upside guys they can throw money at later in the draft. It's not guaranteed (that's why I said "good odds"), but they did also beat the previous record last year ($11.5M).
metafour - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#241030) #
Except that we came about $300K away from setting the record last year; which makes breaking said record a completely realistic scenario this year.
metafour - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#241031) #
Musgrove was an overdraft, as evidenced by his under slot, immediate signing

Noah Syndergaard was an under-slot, reach, immediate signing....he also looks like one of the best players drafted from that draft.

Fact A) There is no way in hell we could afford a draft of Beede/Bell/Norris/Dean/etc/etc/etc.  Why draft a guy who you cant even afford?
Fact B) Wasting a supplemental first on a kid that isn't going to sign is a stupid strategy.
smcs - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#241032) #
I think it's pretty obvious what I mean when I say "nobody" in this context. Musgrove was an overdraft, as evidenced by his under slot, immediate signing. The team would have lost nothing by selecting Bell with that pick and seeing if he would sign on terms they are comfortable with.


And you're saying that you wouldn't have been apoplectic if the Jays had drafted him, knowing that they couldn't sign him, let him go unsigned, then stated that "he wanted more money than we were willing to spend?" I have a feeling that you would have thought that to be "front office speak" and used it as evidence that AA is being disingenuous about Rogers' willingness to spend money.
hypobole - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#241033) #
re Musgrove: Noah Syndergaard was a nobody heading into last years draft.
finch - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#241034) #
With the investment in scouts the Jays have, I have full confidence in their ability to find diamonds in the rough. Musgrove might be that guy, like Syndergaard is.
Kelekin - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#241035) #
We have already spent almost 6 mil in confirmed bonuses, the total figure somewhere between 6-7M, before Comer, Norris, and Beede negotiations.

To sign all three, you likely are looking at another 8M+.

BlueJayWay - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#241036) #

Here is what is happening today ..... Beede says he wants $3m.  The Jays have offered something less, lets say $2m.  The Jays think that Beede can't turn down the big bucks, going to college is too risky.  The Beede camp think the Jays don't want to not sign their first pick and have to wait until next year for a replacement.  So each side thinks the other should blink.  The pressure on each side has been ramping up and unless there is a deal it will ramp up until 11:30 tonight.  The Jays think Beede must be getting nervous, they are waiting for him to call and say I will take $2.8m.  Beede's side think the Jays should be getting nervous and to ramp up the pressure they fire off a few tweets about Vanderbilt. 

Who will call first?  Who will change their offer?  It might not happen until late tonight.  Today both sides are waiting for the other to blink first or to see if there is an acceptable middle ground.  For all we know there are no ongoing conversations.  I recall a case in the last year or two where the negotations started about 9pm or 10pm on the evening of the deadline day.

So without a listening devide in AA's office I have to assume that both sides want a deal, both sides know the approx. dollars required to sign Beede, and the deal will get done tonight.

I believe this as well.  These signings will go down to the wire and we'll only hear about them late, possibly after midnight.

hypobole - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#241038) #
To help assuage concerns of those wondering if Beede will sign, here's something from Goldstein at BP. Beede is not on the list of 1st rounders least likely to sign and most insiders believe all 33 1st rounders will be inked by midnight.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/minorleagueupdate/
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#241039) #
I wonder who the Jays were going to choose at #74 before they took a time out and came back with the Norris selection. Was it Alex Santana, the Dodgers' pick at #73? Or did AA just need to do the math on the total bonus amount Norris and others would require?
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#241041) #
Chances are looking very good that Beede, Comer, Norris and Chin will not sign because they won't be offered enough money. With this possibly the last time A.A. may have this bounty, I can't see being "millions" apart as being the reason for failure.
metafour - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#241042) #
You seriously think "chances are good" that we wont sign any of the three? Get real; some of you really dont understand how this works.
Spifficus - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#241043) #

Ah, the darkness before the dawn. It sometimes feels like the sun won't rise, doesn't it?

Not that it's guaranteed that they will sign any of them, but the likelihood would have to be up there with an extinction-level event before midnight.

raptorsaddict - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#241044) #
God, I hope you don't let MLB do away with the yearly Overslot Showdown - the emotional roller coaster around these parts is fantastic. To both theists and atheists, I say to you all: continue to worship at the altar of AA, until given reason not to! Thanks for the lulz!

All jokes aside, tonight will be a good test of AA. Thus far, he has been all about "undersell/overdeliver" - never hear about a deal until it's over, keep expectations low, etc. Contrast that with the draft, where he has clearly telegraphed his hand, to the point that its almost been a BB fantasy up until this point. Why would he get our hopes up, then dash our baseball-geek dreams? This draft is his big offseason signing from last year, in my very humble opinion (which has also been expressed by others on this board).  I hope my soul doesn't get crushed shortly after midnight!
Original Ryan - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#241045) #
We'll know for certain in just a few hours. With the deadline being so close, I don't see much point in speculating on who will/will not sign.
Spifficus - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#241046) #
Double-bah! Too distracted today. That should be "the likelihood they don't (sign any of them)..."
Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#241048) #
According to Bob Elliott the Jays have a $1.3m offer out to Comer. He wants $2m.

I am not sure if the Jays have the budget to sign all of their picks but they are probably telling the agents they don't. They have probably told all their top picks that they have only say $5m to spend on Beede, Comer and Norris and the first two who say yes get the dollars and the other one can go to college.
John Northey - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#241049) #
I figure they'll shift it to a mid-July signing deadline, up a month from now. That way top prospects have a month in the minors and teams can quickly refocus on the trade deadline afterwards.

Of course, you want to make things really interesting, have a second draft of guys who didn't sign a month later (the current signing deadline) with the cavet that if you draft someone the others couldn't sign you lose your first round pick in the following season. Add in a control that teams in the upper 10% of payroll (top 3) can't participate (some control to keep Yankees from just blowing people out of the water).
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#241050) #
It seems awfully complicated to play poker with three top talents simultaneously, especially when the talks traditionally go down to the wire. I expect AA will sign two of the three (most likely Beede and Comer), and the majority of the remaining picks. The question is, does he have the resources, intel and negotiating savvy to snaffle Beede, Comer and Norris (plus the majority of their remaining picks)?
soupman - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#241051) #
It's all games until the deadline.

Personally, I'd sign if I were in their shoes - but when I was in HS, I don't know that I would have. This is the benefit of hindsight and experience...and one of the big reasons that all the theology/philosophy stuff probably irks people. Yet, at the same time, it is important to remember that they are just kids, just like we all were/are. They have so much time to learn, grow, and encounter different ways of being and doing, and they will regardless of what path they choose. As a Jays fan, it would be nice if they signed, but either way it isn't my business to hold their choice (or their hopes, etc) against them.

Dave Rutt - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#241052) #
It seems awfully complicated to play poker with three top talents simultaneously, especially when the talks traditionally go down to the wire.

As others have alluded to, it may be a negotiating strategy. "We don't have time to talk to you all night, so take it or leave it." Probably not the primary motivation behind drafting a lot of tough signs, but I wouldn't say it's necessarily a hindrance either.
damos - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#241053) #
KLaw via twitter:

"This may mean little or nothing, but I'm told the gap between the Jays and Beede right now is over seven figures."
Krylian19 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#241054) #

So the Jays are offering $2.5M...Beede wants $3.5M.  Split the difference...$3M.  Bob's your uncle.

 

Next!!!

Hodgie - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#241055) #
Have to figure if the difference is that big that Beede's father, er Tyler has changed the asking price significantly since the draft
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#241056) #
What I want to know is, when are we going to find out what happened with all these picks? I need to get some sleep tonight! I should probably just go to bed and look online tomorrow morning...
Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#241057) #
You will find out between 11:30pm and 12:30am.

Until then it will be fairly quiet.
damos - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#241058) #
From Jonathan Mayo:

"I'm hearing that #Vandy recruit, and #bluejays supplemental 1st-rounder Kevin Comer will be joining Tyler Beede at Vanderbilt, not Toronto"
sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#241059) #
Frig off Johnathan Mayo
Krylian19 - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#241061) #

Still 2 hours to go though.

I'm betting the real negotiations don't start for another hour and a half.

TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#241062) #
"is over seven figures."

OVER seven? There better be a decimal in there somewhere...


(I assume what he means is "over 1 million" but "over seven figures" is technically eight figures)
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#241063) #
Norris just tweeted that he has no news to report yet: "I wish I had an answer."
TamRa - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#241065) #
My guess: Jays either get Beede/Comer as a set (both Vandy recruits) or get neither but do get Norris


Law tweets:

keithlaw Becoming skeptical. That has become a much bigger soap opera than i ever realized. RT @Arock1234: @keithlaw still think beede will sign?

and...

I believed that too, but I was wrong. RT @darth_federer: @keithlaw rumor before draft that they had agreement with beede already

So! The double-switch act worked! now....let's get it done, mmm?

also of note: Beede says a lot about wanting to win a championship at Vandy - but another highly regarded Vandy recruit, Grayson Garvin, has signed with the Rays...i wonder if the signing of a fellow recruit lessens the chance of winning that championship in Beede's mind?
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#241066) #
I think Beede has thoroughly discussed the decision with his family and agent/advisor. They probably have a number, whether it's $3M, $3.5M, $4M or more. Either the Jays get close enough or he's college-bound. Who knows, with such a high-profile pick, Beede may already have decided to go to college, but feels he needs to "negotiate" until the deadline.

What I find annoying is commentators like Law and Goldstein stoking the rumours of a pre-draft deal for days, implying some rock-solid intel about the whole thing, then basically saying "oops, sorry, got it wrong" an hour before the deadline. Law just tweeted that the Beede negotiations had become "a much bigger soap opera that I ever realized" but neglected to point out that he contributed to it becoming a soap opera in the first place.
Kelekin - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#241067) #
Beede could very easily have had a pre-draft deal in place regardless of what you, or anyone else thinks.  It doesn't mean it can't fall apart.
Gerry - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#241068) #
Elliott says the Jays have offered $2m to Beede.
soupman - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#241069) #
law was also big on the #spydome rumour-mongering. his reputation is overblown imo.
John Northey - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#241070) #
One thing worth noting is the 2 open slots on the 40 man roster right now. Could be the Jays are making sure to keep a couple open as negotiating points. It is rare to give a draft pick a 40 man slot as you get their options used up quickly but if you feel a guy is only 2 or 3 years from the majors then it could be worth it.
greenfrog - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#241071) #
A signing!

#BlueJays sign 7th-rder Christian Lopes for $800k. #mlbdraft

http://twitter.com/#!/jimcallisBA
Anders - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#241072) #
Jays sign Christian Lopes per Jim Callis:

http://twitter.com/#!/jimcallisBA/status/103311044193157120
sam - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#241073) #
Here they come...
BlueJayWay - Monday, August 15 2011 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#241074) #
$2m to Beede seems low.  I'd thought they'd offer 3 or more.
Paul D - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#241075) #
It's alive!

Too bad taht Beede didn't sign, but overall I think you still have to be happy with this draft.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#241076) #
Now that the site is back up...my two cents.  I have no idea whether Beede, Norris or Comer are worth what they wanted, and the latter two got.  I am pleased that the organization signed Dean and Lopes. 

The bigger deal is what the organization does in the off-season.  This club is now ready to compete.

Paul D - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#241077) #
<i>
The bigger deal is what the organization does in the off-season.  This club is now ready to compete.</i>

Good point.  The club needs to turn its talent and money into a 2b, SP, and two relievers.
aaforpm - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#241078) #
Extremely disappointed that we didn't sign Beede.  Based on his deliver, frame, and great looking mechanics I'm willing to bet he turns out to be a way more successful pro than Norris or Comer (both of whom have rough looking mechanics.  Hate to see the Jays not spend on Beede when the Red Sox sign all of their top picks
John Northey - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#241079) #
Agreed that it is great that the Hays signed a lot of their tough signs. Beede being offered a mil over slot but wanting a million more suggests the Jays did try but it wasn't going to happen.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#241080) #
There are lots of ways for the club to improve.  Maybe they will go hard after Albert Pujols.
China fan - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#241081) #
Is there an explanation for why the BB site crashed?  Too much traffic at the midnight deadline?
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#241082) #
Disappointed that Beede didn't get done as well. Given that they got Comer and Norris done, overall I'd say I'm only a bit disappointed, though, and that's only because of what could have been. It was still a good haul, but could have been that much better with Beede as the headliner. I guess even AA doesn't come through every time.
sam - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#241083) #
I still think they're a bit further away from competing than most people seem to think. They're incredibly bare when it comes to pitching, in comparison to competing teams in baseball. IMO, I don't see their pitching staff being in the top ten in baseball. People may disagree but consider this: How would you rank these pitching staffs?

San Francisco, Philadephia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Boston, Tampa Bay, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Texas, LA Angels, Oakland, Arizona, St. Louis, Toronto.

I mean, I think Toronto might have a better pitching staff (rotation and bullpen) than maybe two of those teams. I mean, we only have one starting pitcher with an ERA under 4. CV is a spot starter whose arm is about to fall off. And we have absolutely nobody with lights out or dominating stuff in the bullpen. Apologies to Casey Janssen who is having an excellent season.

We have a solid core of hitters, however there remain questions about most of them. Who is Adam Lind, the 2009 or 2010 version. I think he's somewhere in between, like this season, in which case I think the Jays will always be looking for something more. Will Colby Rasmus take the next big step? What happens when Brett Lawrie starts facing teams for the second time? Is Aaron Hill done? Has Yunel Escobar returned to 2009 form? (I think he has.) What about LF? Snider or Thames? Either one, there will be questions lingering for at least a couple seasons. Will JP Arencibia improve or will he stagnate as a sub-par defensive catcher who hits for power with poor obp skills?

Jose Bautista is a stud. No questions there.

I just don't see the "OK next year is our year!"-type thing. I hope it is, and maybe call me a pessimistic, but this team and its players need a bit more of a track record before we start planning for October and $100 million contracts.

On the draft:

Satisfied with the draft. A little disappointed with Beede. Any time your no. 1 pick doesn't sign questions need to be asked. I gather Norris came down a lot in his asking price but Beede didn't. Seems like the Jays lost one game of chicken and won the other. Wish Beede the best, but really hoped he'd signed so I could've said "suck it" to John Mayo.

Has the Roberto Osuna signing been confirmed?
Ducey - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#241086) #

Here is the problem I have.

The Pirates spend $8 million on their first and $5 million on their second (Bell).  Other teams spent more than $3.5 M to get their first rounders.  As much as the league would like teams to stick to slot, it seems like a joke.

So why didn't the Jays just pay what Beede wanted?  Its a million dollars which is 8 or 9 % of their budget.  I have not seen any explanation of why they did not just pay it.

It seems there needs to be a huge overhaul of the whole process of player recruitment.  If you are a 16 year old in Canada you need to wait until the draft when you are 18.  If you live in Mexico you can get a $1 million signing bonus at 16.  They need to follow hockey.  Everyone gets drafted at 18.  Then you are property of the team who can let you go to college or bring you into their minor league team. 

Nick Holmes - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#241087) #
I don't think missing out on Beede is the worst result for this draft. If I understand the draft right if the Jays had whiffed on Comer or Norris the compensation pick would have been in the supplemental round, as it is the Jays get another first-round pick next year. It's not as deep a draft as this year, so a supplemental pick is probably going to be much less valuable. Norris in particular was drafted lower because of "signability issues," not ability.

I was interested to hear on one of the Baseball America Draft Preview podcasts that they thought that Beede might have had an agreement with one or more non-Jays teams before the draft, which I guess could have led some writers to think that the agreement was with the Jays.
Even though the draft is over, I'd still recommend giving the podcasts a listen - the overall analysis at the beginning of the National League one is pretty insightful. The BA podcasts are available on their site & on iTunes, and though I don't subscribe I do selectively download. I wish I had the time to follow college baseball closely enough to appreciate all of them.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#241088) #
They're incredibly bare when it comes to pitching, in comparison to competing teams in baseball.

I don't think they look all that bare pitchingwise in comparison to NYY, BOS, and TEX.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#241089) #
I agree with what a lot of sam said, but I'd disagree on one thing. That is the bullpen. It is definitely possible to turn that around in under a year with just a few wise FA signings. And without giving up picks either. Look at Arizona last year compared to this. They had one of the worst bullpens if not the worst last year and went to pretty good this year. That's also part of the reason why one never invests in bullpens with big signings or overly worry on drafting bullpen arms.

I think the biggest issue with this team going forward is starting pitching. Morrow needs to harness his incredible stuff and stop giving up more ER than hits in his starts. Cecil needs to keep being consistent, and Romero needs to stop being a wallflower when he pitches against the Sox. The success of our starting pitching will determine how we do next year.
dan gordon - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#241090) #

I think the Jays can contend next year if there is an extra wild card added - heck they'd be in the running for that one this year.  If it's status quo, I don't think they're a contender yet.  The pitching staff needs a lot of help if they're going to overhaul the Yankees or Red Sox.  Speaking of which, Trevor Miller is now being used in a 5-4 game in the 8th inning??

Given how aggressive the team was in drafting tough to sign players, I think the overall draft result is quite good.  From what I've read, Norris is a better prospect than Beede, he ended up costing less than what they offered Beede, let alone what Beede was asking for, and they get the 22nd pick next year.  If it was Norris who didn't sign, as most expected, and Beede who did sign, they would  have ended up with the lesser prospect, and had the 74th pick in next year's draft, so they got the better prospect and the better draft pick next year. 

They signed 8 of their 9 picks in the 4th round or higher, and added some high upside guys later, like Dean, Biggs and Lopes.  Last year they signed 21 of their top 26 picks, and this year they only signed 16 of their top 26 picks, but I think they picked even more tough signs than last year.  Would have been nice to get a few more of the picks like Suarez, Garza, Wiper, Glenn, Norwood, etc, but overall, I think they have a very good group under contract.  Some of the guys who signed early have gotten off to very good starts, too - Berti, Vega, Rollins and Arce in particular.

Is Eliopoulos ever going to sign with somebody?

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#241091) #

uglyone, TEX, really????

The Rangers are the only team in baseball with five starting pitchers already in double-digit wins  and the revamped (Uehura-Adams-Feliz) bullpen is shutdown awesome, or has been so far anyway. The rotation lacks a Cliff-Lee-ace, but is the depeest 1-5 in the game, no question.

Seriously, for the first time in the history of the franchise, the pitching  in Texas arguably outshines the offense.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#241095) #
TEX is a very interesting comparison, IMO.

They didn't go out and sign any big pitching UFAs last offseason - in fact they lost Cliff Lee - and they just went with the young talent they had, even though they weren't all that good last year. Here's what their current starters did last year:

2010

Wilson (29): 33gs, 204.0ip, 1.25whip, 3.35era
Lewis (31): 32gs, 201.0ip, 1.19whip, 3.72era
Holland (23): 10gs, 46.2ip, 1.41whip, 4.44era
Harrison (24): 6gs, 34.0ip, 1.44whip, 5.29era
Ogando (26): 0gs, 41.2ip, 1.13whip, 1.30era

So they trade away Cliff Lee, go with two kids Holland and Harrison who were ok but not great last year split between the rotation and the 'pen, dropped Feldman, added in Oganda who was purely a reliever last year, and ended up trading away Hunter midway through this season.

If we were to follow the Texas blueprint, wouldn't that mean we would just go with the young talent next year that did this this year?

Romero (26): 24gs, 166.0ip, 1.14whip, 2.87era
Cecil (24): 13gs, 84.1ip, 1.26whip, 4.38era
Morrow (26): 21gs, 126.2ip, 1.26whip, 4.55era
Drabek (23): 14gs, 72.2ip, 1.79whip, 5.70era
Alvarez (21): 2gs, 10.2ip, 1.50whip, 5.91era

* + Litsch (26)/Villy (27)/McGowan (29)/McGuire (22)

One legit frontline starter would definitely make that group look better (and one more starter isn't all that "far away" imo), but that's not the blueprint Texas used last offseason to improve their starting pitching.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#241097) #
I have 2 big questions regarding the Jays draft

First: Why draft Beede, if they weren't prepared to meet his asking price? There was plenty of talent that would have fit the Jays budget available @21, and much of it better than what they will eventually get with an unprotected pick in a weaker draft. Jays seemed to have gambled on Beede caving and lost.

Second: What was the thinking behind drafting 10 upside HS arms between the 5th and 22nd rounds and then only bothering to sign 1 (Biggs)?

To an untrained eye, it looks like the draft was conducted with one budget and the signings with a different, much reduced, budget.

Not a bad draft haul, beter than the Yankees, but our system seems to have lost ground to both the Rays and Red Sox when the clock hit midnight.
Rich - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#241102) #
Very disappointed not to have signed Beede.  It's a goofy strategy - why draft hard to sign players if you have no intention of coming close to what they say they want, especially if their college commitment seems legitimate (which Beede's always appeared to)?  If you think from the outset that a player has greatly overvalued himself then draft someone else.

At the end of the day for Rogers, the amounts they wouldn't pay Beede and Paxton are drops in the bucket.  The organization has tons of money and has been trapped in mediocrity for 18 years.  Roll the dice and pay for the players you want.  Not signing your top pick twice in three years is not the way to compete with the big boys.  Sure the team might get burned and overpay for a bust but it's a chance the Jays need to take if they ever want to see post-season baseball again.

Rationalizing the decision by saying, "well Norris is actually better so it doesn't matter we lost Beede" is simply that - a rationalization.  The club could have had BOTH and they screwed it up.

MatO - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#241103) #
Second: What was the thinking behind drafting 10 upside HS arms between the 5th and 22nd rounds and then only bothering to sign 1 (Biggs)?
Actually they also signed Dragmire at No. 17.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#241107) #
So why didn't the Jays just pay what Beede wanted?

Because they didn't think he was worth what he wanted. I don't know if they're right or wrong, but the Jays put a value on everyone they drafted, and weren't prepared to go above that amount. Per the Star:
“We could have signed both of them (Norris and Beede) but it had to be at our value,” said Anthopoulos. “We set values on players long ago.”
Granted, I think the "at our value" part is silly - I could afford a Mercedes, as long as it was at my value.

Aside from that, "pay him whatever he wants' isn't really a useful negotiating strategy. What happens next year when the first round pick wants $6 million?
sam - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#241108) #
I wouldn't say this is a black mark on the AA regime, but I'm disappointed in the Jays. The middle round drafting is suspect as well. Overall, it appears as though they didn't have much enthusiasm towards signing their picks. I just don't know.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#241114) #

What happens next year when the first round pick wants $6 million?


Either be prepared to pay up to $6 million or draft someone else who's going to meet your value.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#241115) #
Very disappointed not to have signed Beede.  It's a goofy strategy - why draft hard to sign players if you have no intention of coming close to what they say they want, especially if their college commitment seems legitimate (which Beede's always appeared to)?  If you think from the outset that a player has greatly overvalued himself then draft someone else.

Simple. they almost always blink. Read pretty much any commentary from a non-partisan source today and they will say Beede blew it, not the Jays.

consider - Norris fell to us because he was said to want FOUR million.

He signed for half that. And that's what almost always happens unless you are a top 10 talent. Beede is the exception. there's no shame in being a victim of the random chance that one guy is going to be an outlier, it happens.

People compare this to Paxton but that was different - they lost him over, what, $150k? THAT I object to. but not this.

I'lltake this opportunity to add - anyone who assumes they hit a budget ceiling and the only reason they lost him is that Beeston/rogers wouldn't cough up an extra $1 million is delusional. Disagree with the choice if you want but don't go THERE.

Second, I'm not sure what it is with Jays fans that we get no less than three first round talents in the draft and rather than doing the snoopy dance, they are busted up about the ONE who got away. Sure, I'm the unapologetic optimist in the crowd but damn if i can wrap my head around that.

"Playing with the big boys"? Take a look at our system. We are most assuradly playing with the big boys at this point in terms of player development.
TamRa - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#241119) #
First: Why draft Beede, if they weren't prepared to meet his asking price?

To repeat for emphesis - the VAST majority don't stick to "their price"

We got Norris for HALF of "his price" - that Beede stuck to his was an outlier. it happens. Tough break, move on.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#241121) #

I am happy.  The signing of Norris was big for me.  That is the one I was hoping for.  You can never have too many good left handed pitchers. 

Beede can watch the Blue Jays win the World Series in three years from his dorm room.  His loss.  The Jays get a compensation pick next year for him, so it is not the end of the world.  Maybe the Jays can get a player that actually want to play for them.

I don't understand Beede.  Two years from now, he could have Tommy Johns or a bad injury that wipes him out of baseball.    So many arms blow out every year.  He could drop way down in three years and they may cap the spending.  He could be 25-26 years old before he makes simular money.

My wife(who is american) thinks he just doesn't want to play in Canada.  I never thought about it, but that could be true too.

Just to put a thought out there....  I really wonder if there was tampering by other teams.  If he had a pre-draft agreement worked out with a team and it wasn't the Jays, I wonder what that means for his signability.

Anyway, it was a good draft, even without Beede.  Safe picks has got us Russ Adams and Aaron Hill in the past (Yawn...)   I would rather AA step up to the plate and swing for the fences.  He wiffed on a couple, but picks like Stilson and Norris could be huge.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#241128) #
I'm pretty happy with the draft, and think Beede was stupid not to take the money.

That being said, AA and the Jays definitely deserve criticism for picking one of the hardest signs in the draft with their first rounder, and then not getting it done.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#241131) #

To repeat for emphesis - the VAST majority don't stick to "their price"


The VAST majority don't send out letters to area scouts asking not to be contacted either.

Gerry - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#241140) #

I believe the Jays draft philosophy was as follows:

Sixth through fifteetenth round college player picks have very little value.

Sixth through fifteenth round hard to sign high school picks with first five round talent have value if they sign.

Getting two or three high school top five round talents in those 6th - 15th rounds is better than ten college players.  

dan gordon - Tuesday, August 16 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#241148) #

AA's general strategy seems to be to draft a lot of high upside guys who are available because other teams are taking guys who are more likely signable.  Offer good money, but not more than what you think is the player's value.  Hope a bunch of them sign, but if some don't, that's to be expected.  I think it makes a lot of sense, as long as you are signing a good majority of the high picks.  They got more talent than if they just went with easily signable guys and signed them all.  Norris is probably a top 15 guy based on talent, and they got him 74th.  Comer and Stilson were 1st rounders based on talent and they got them 57th and 108th.  Dean was taken in the 13th round, and he would be what, a 2nd rounder, based on talent.  Lopes was taken in the 7th round, and he would have been taken much higher based on talent.  This isn't like the NHL or NFL drafts.  Perceived signability is a major factor in where a guy is picked.  Sure, in an ideal world, they could draft all higher talent, difficult to sign guys that other teams are staying away from, and sign all of them, but it's not going to happen.  Guys like Dean, Norris, Wiper, Suarez, Lopes, Glenn, etc. are available later in the draft for a reason.

Perhaps they do need to tweek it a bit, given how little success they had with the high school pitchers taken from rounds 5 through 22 - only signing 2 of them out of what was it , 10?  I imagine they are talking about that.  I agree completely with the comment that they feel it is better to sign a few high upside high school kids in rounds 5-15 than 10 college guys.  Then they take their college guys late and sign some undrafted guys to fill out the short season clubs.

As for just offering Beede what he wanted, AA has stated that if he just gives in to what a player wants, then the next year, he is going to be "hearing about that" - in other words, players will be expecting the same thing and it will make it harder to sign guys for reasonable bonuses.  He'd lose leverage and the ability to negotiate effectively.

Of course, if mlb goes to some kind of mandatory slot bonus system, then all of this goes out the window, and you have a system similar to the NHL, where you just take the best available player with each pick.  In that kiind of setup, they might get Beede, but they wouldn't get Comer, Norris, Stilson, Robson. Lopes and Dean where they did because they'd be gone.  I think they do better under the current system.  Would love to see an earlier deadline, though, so these guys who sign late could play this summer. 

scottt - Wednesday, August 17 2011 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#241246) #
I think back about the Olivo move--paying half a million for a draft pick, and I conclude that the Jays are not afraid of losing value by using Beede's pick next year. It might leave the door open to signing a type A over the winter.

In the end, it does not look like a bad draft. Time will tell.
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