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With all the attention focused on the draft recently, it occurred to me recently to go back to Michael Lewis's famous baseball book, Moneyball, and look at the chapters on that year's draft (2002). Lewis dissects the draft, highlighting the players Oakland was interested in and the others who figured in to their picks. You could put together a pretty interesting all-star team from the players mentioned by name in that part of the book, and here they are:


C Jeremy Brown (Oak) ("If you put him in corduroys, he'd start a fire.")
C John Baker (Oak) (Fla)
1B Prince Fielder (Mil) ("Prince Fielder just saved our paint.")
2B Mark Kiger (Oak) ("Too small to play pro ball--or so they said.")
SS Khalil Greene (SD) ("Kevin Towers, the GM of the San Diego Padres, would take Greene.")
3B Mark Teahen (Oak) (Tor) ("I hate to process on the campfire, but I haven't heard Teahen's name once all year.")
OF Nick Swisher (Oak) (NYY) ("Oh, he's noticeable. From the moment he gets off the bus he doesn't shut up.")
OF Denard Span (Min) ("Span frolicked us. His agent just asked for $2.6 million and frolicking Colorado can't get a deal done.")
OF B.J. Upton (TB) ("Tampa Bay takes a high school shortstop named Melvin Upton.")
Bench Russ Adams (Tor) ("J.P. is going to take Adams, and once Adams is gone, we're frolicked.")
Bench/Bullpen Adam Loewen (Bal) (Tor) ("Baltimore follows suit with a high school pitcher named Adam Loewen.")

P Joe Blanton (Oak) (Phi) ("You were going to get Blanton," he says. "But you ain't getting him now.")
P Jeff Francis (Col) (KC) ("Frolicking Colorado's taking Francis.")
P Zack Greinke (KC) (Mil) ("No. We're not all right. Greinke, Gruler, and Everts aren't going to be there.")
P Jeremy Guthrie (Cle) (Bal) ("Whichever team drafted Jeremy Guthrie was going to cough up a package worth $20 million--or Guthrie would return to Stanford for his senior year.")
P Scott Kazmir (NYM) (LAA) ("Well, that's a frolicking light at the end of the frolicking tunnel.")
RP Roger Ring (CWS) (NYY) (""You frolicking got to be kidding me!" hollers Billy, overjoyed.")
RP Bill Murphy (Oak) (Tor)
RP Bryan Bullington (Pit) (KC) ("Redraft number 0090.")

(I had to substitute some words for other words in some of those quotes.)

I hadn't realized that so many of these guys played for Toronto. Never mind Russ Adams, but also Teahen, Loewen, Bullington... I had forgotten that Bill Murphy even existed. Brant Colamarino belonged to them for a while.

Now, there were some future major-league players drafted that year who never got mentioned in Lewis's book, and who therefore aren't on this team. Guys like Cole Hamels, Joe Saunders, Jeff Francoeur, James Loney, Matt Cain, Jeremy Hermida, and Sergio Santos. I don't have the complete draft listings in front of me, but I wonder if the guys Lewis didn't mention could beat the ones he did mention.

Still, this isn't a baseball list. It's a literary list. Players from the Seattle Pilots and Houston Astros are remembered today by many mostly because they appeared, because they were mentioned, in Bouton's Ball Four. Jeremy Brown and Mark Kiger and Bill Murphy didn't have great major-league careers, but as long as people still read about baseball, they'll be remembered as part of the Moneyball draft.
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Magpie - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#241502) #
Ah, the famous Moneyball draft. Beane had compensation picks for losing Damon (16th) and Giambi (24th), his own pick (26th), a compensation pick for losing Isringhausen (30th), and three supplemental picks for losing those three free agents (35th, 37th, 39th.) The immortal Brian Bullington went first overall.

Beane started out by getting Nick Swisher with the 16th pick - a good player, who he eventually traded for Gio Gonzalez. He got Joe Blanton with the 24th pick - Blanton has won 73 games in the majors, and no other pitcher taken in the first two rounds has won more (although Hamels and Greinke, among others, will soon pass him by.)

And then... oops. John McCurdy, Ben Fritz, Jeremy Brown, Steve Obenchain, and Mark Teahen. Teahen had a decent year or two, but Brown played just 5 games in the majors. Of course, that was five more than McCurdy, Fritz, and Obenchain combined to play.

We say "oops" with vigour because of what went on in the second round, after Beane had made his seven picks. Cincinnati, Boston, and Atlanta scooped up Joey Votto, Jon Lester, and Brian McCann.
Dave Till - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#241506) #
Would any of those second round choices have commanded more in bonus money than the players that the A's picked? Some of Beane's choices weren't really first-round talents - they were players that the A's knew that they could sign relatively cheaply. Still, oops indeed.

Speaking of the draft: I wonder if Mr. Beede will go through his college career known as The Guy Who Turned Down Two And A Half Mill. It might be the right decision for him, but whoa. That's more than many Americans (and North Americans) make in their entire lifetimes. (But what a tool for Vanderbilt to recruit with! "We have a player here who turned down $2.5 million to pitch with us!")

mathesond - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#241514) #
I suspect in 6 months most baseball fans (bitter/disbelieving Jays fans and Anthopoulos detractors excepted) will have forgotten Beede turned down money to go to school. He wasn't the first to do so, won't be the last, and in this day and age, a new story comes along every 15 minutes and pushes the old ones out of the public consciousness (kind of like when Homer took that home wine-making course)
dawgatc - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#241533) #
random thoughts on beede non signing - disappointed that the jays didn't get it done - they knew what money he wanted when they took him - Beede says that the jays were not in touch all day til about a half an hour to go -that seems strange - better to make your last offer then give Beede some time to think on it - on the other hand i think Beede is nuts not to take the money -2.5 mill can pay for a lot of school if thaTS WHAT YOU LIKE - THE VALUE OF A UNIVERSITY EDUCATION (EVEN vANDERBILT) IS NEGLIGIBLE IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE A PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL PLAYER FOR MUCH OF YOUR ADULT LIFE - BY THE TIME YOU'RE DONE YOUR DEGREE IS JUST SOMETHING TO PUT ON YOUR WALL- anyway jays get the pick back next year so we'll see how that plays out
92-93 - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#241550) #
Yankees fans didn't forget Gerritt Cole turning down the 3m they would have given him. He ended up getting 8m.
Moe - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#241556) #
Yankees fans didn't forget Gerritt Cole turning down the 3m they would have given him. He ended up getting 8m.

They would have if Cole had not preformed.  Cole is the ceiling for Beede, the floor is blowing out his arm and getting maybe 50k.  Both are equally unlikely but possible.  Most likely, he'll have a solid college career and gets drafted around the same spot with the same money.  Maybe even less, considering how college juniors have been squeezed. 

Anyways, I agree, it's time to move on.  Most people agree that drawing the line at 2.5m was acceptable.  You can keep saying they should have given him 3.5m and if he turns out to be a stud, you can all remind us that you would have signed him.  I personally would have maybe gone a little higher, just so the gap is not a full 1m -- maybe 2.8m.  It probably still would have not been enough, but who knows.  It's over and the Jays got plenty of good players.  If anything, I wish they had spent some more on some lower drafted players but maybe they tried. 

 
92-93 - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#241561) #
I never said they should have given him 3.5m. What they should have done was sign their first round draft pick.

Your floor is highly unrealistic. Paxton didn't pitch for an entire year and still got more than the Jays offered him. Matt Purke's shoulder is believed by many to be fried and he got 4.4m. Heck, the Jays gave 500k to a guy with a torn labrum (Stilson).
Moe - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#241566) #
I never said they should have given him 3.5m. What they should have done was sign their first round draft pick.

He said he wouldn't go below 3.5m.  If this is true, they would have had to give him 3.5m to sign him.  And I'm fine with them not doing that.  I think they could have tried 2.8m but that's about it.


Your floor is highly unrealistic. Paxton didn't pitch for an entire year and still got more than the Jays offered him. Matt Purke's shoulder is believed by many to be fried and he got 4.4m. Heck, the Jays gave 500k to a guy with a torn labrum (Stilson).


Paxton wasn't insured.  Stilson is not a college kid and Purke was thought to have a shot at the first overall.  There are plenty of kids who blow their arms and never come back.  He could also just not live up to the high competition and have a less than inspiring college career.  Not saying that's likely, but neither is 8m.

92-93 - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#241568) #
You know there were a plethora of other good players with more reasonable price tags they could have selected, right? It wasn't Beede or go home. Everyone can spin it however they want, but there's failure on some level when the Jays are the only team to not sign their first round draft pick.

Not sure what Paxton's insurance policy has to do with anything. Stilson went to Texas A&M. There are probably very few examples of guys who were offered 2.5m and then couldn't get more than 50k 3 years later. If you have any examples, please share them.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#241570) #
To me, it's about risk/reward, and it's not all financial.

Vanderbilt = excellent education, good track record of developing pitchers, chance to compete for the college WS, possibility of a higher bonus in 2014, unlikely to significantly impair his path to the majors (reward); chance of injury, chance of declining performance, chance of lower bonus (risk)

Jays = $2.4M guaranteed, respected organization, good track record of developing pitchers, fast track to the majors, can always go to college later (reward); no education to fall back on, missing out on college experience in late teens/early 20s, Jays possibly not preferred team to play for (risk)

Players will assign different weights to each of these variables. For Beede, the money wasn't enough to tilt him towards signing. I respect the value he placed on a college education - that will stand him in good stead in the long run. Money is very useful, but it isn't everything in life.
Moe - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#241576) #
You know there were a plethora of other good players with more reasonable price tags they could have selected, right? It wasn't Beede or go home. Everyone can spin it however they want, but there's failure on some level when the Jays are the only team to not sign their first round draft pick.

Yes, there were other players but it was a reasonable assumption that they could sign him for around 2.5m.  Norrie gave in, Bell gave in.  It was tough but it happens.  If they had signed Beede and not Norris, you wouldn't be complaining nearly as much.  But everyone says that Norris is actually the better player, so as I see it, they got their 1st rounder and lost out on a supplemental round pick.


Not sure what Paxton's insurance policy has to do with anything. Stilson went to Texas A&M. There are probably very few examples of guys who were offered 2.5m and then couldn't get more than 50k 3 years later. If you have any examples, please share them.

Sorry, there were 2 typos: Paxton wasn't injured (not insured), his problem was that he lost his fellowship.  And I confused Stilson with Chin.  Stilson is the same as Purke, a top 10 talent who got injured going into the draft.  In terms of regret, Eliopoulos immediately comes to mind.  Another famous story I read was Matt Harrington.  Obviously 50k is very unlikely but so is 8m.

MatO - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#241577) #
If Beede was rated in the top 10 then I can at least understand the logic in drafting him just as they did with Norris.  However, AA himself said that Beede hadn't dropped in the draft because of his demands. He went just about where he was projected.  In fact, most pre-draft reports had him rated much lower.  So your picking a hard to sign guy who's not rated much better than the next guy.  That's my problem with it.  In any case, they get the pick next year and the draft is such a crap-shoot anyway.
92-93 - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#241579) #
And if they hadn't signed Norris would people still be content with them not signing Beede? The two aren't mutually exclusive.

The problem with saying they get the pick next year is that the Jays have shown for 2 drafts under AA that they use the unprotected picks very carefully, drafting guys they can give underslot deals to and send them straight into pro ball. It's not ideal to be forced to take lesser talents because you are worried about your negotiating leverage.
greenfrog - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#241581) #
I wonder if the possibility of an MLB investigation (hyped by Law and Goldstein) spooked Beede and his family a bit, tilting them towards Vanderbilt. The whole Beede/Jays thing was such a media circus.
Timbuck2 - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#241588) #
Indeed I think that could be the case greenfrog - especially after the whole mess with Paxton.

However that being said I believe that there were only three possible outcomes that the Beede family would accept regardless of the media circus:

1)  Go to Vanderbuilt (which he now is) and try and be the next David Price (who I suspect is his favorite pitcher)
2)  Get picked by the team(s) he really want to play with and negotiate a contract
3)  If not drafted by prefered team then hold out for LOTS of money and if that didn't appear then pursue option number 1

And for the record I've felt this was the case since the day they drafted him....

85bluejay - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#241590) #

Agreed with 92-93 - there was other excellent talent available that weren't as tough to sign - I liked guys like Guerrieri & Swihart better than Beede & it stings that Tampa & Boston got those guys on reasonable deals - If the Jays had drafted Breede in say the 5th rd. and failed to sign him, that's a reasonable gamble.

Also, some posters seem to take the George Bush approach to AA - either you totally support everything he does or you're against him - I a big fan of AA, but this failure is on the FO and perhaps the scout who recommended that Beede was signable for less than he said.

I have no problems with Beede's decision (from his point of view) and am disappointed to see Jays posters on many forums attacking the young man and his family as a way of defending the jays - he's greedy/He made the biggest mistake of his life/hope he doesn't get anywhere that money when he turns pro etc. - Relax - look at the Paxton case - He's happy in Seattle and the Jays are happy with their replacement pick.   

smcs - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#241596) #
There are probably very few examples of guys who were offered 2.5m and then couldn't get more than 50k 3 years later. If you have any examples, please share them.

Matt Harrington was selected in five consecutive drafts. His offers went from $4.4M to $1.2M (the family brought in Scott Boras for this draft and he wanted twice what was offered) to no contract (the team who drafted him saw him pitch in the Indy Leagues and rescinded any offer on the table) to $5K-$200,000 (13th round money) to no contract. The existence of cases in either direction does not really add anything to the argument though, they just create a confirmation bias. Then again, continuously talking about where players were drafted and how much their bonus was creates a different type of bias. No matter what Beede does, he will always be at risk of blowing out his shoulder. Some colleges (from what I understand, Vanderbilt is not one of these), overuse the pitchers, partly because they do not need them for 10 years, but for 3 or 4. Beede is essentially wagering $2.5MM that he will not get significantly injured and that he will be better in 3 years than he is right now. The likelihood that he gets a bonus of $2.5MM or higher in the 2014 draft is, what, 50%? Higher? Lower? No matter what happens in the 2014 draft, I will still think he made the wrong decision in turning down $2.5MM. Of course this is a failure on the part of the front office, but it's not like he was demanding $3MM and the Jays wouldn't go above slot.
92-93 - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#241599) #
I don't think there are any posters here who are against AA. If you are referring to me, I try to be one of the lone voices who actually finds faults in some of the moves our GM makes and doesn't blindly accept everything he does as saving our franchise. There's a big difference there, and I love the majority of the early work AA has put into building the club. That doesn't mean I can't take issue with things like the Romero/Lind extensions, not signing Beede, or keeping JoJo Reyes in the rotation for WAY too long.
85bluejay - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#241605) #
92-93 - I think you misread my post - I saying that some of AA's supporters take offense if there is any criticism of him - I also am a big AA supporter but I will criticize moves that I unhappy about such as the Beede Fiasco  & I'm always weary of this AA is a genius mentality some poster have - constructive criticism is a must.
DaveB - Friday, August 19 2011 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#241617) #
There's a sidebar to the Beede story that involves Farrell and the family of Matt Holliday. Farrell was drafted out of a New Jersey HS in 1980 (9th round) by Oakland but chose to take a scholarship at Oklahoma State University, where the recruiting director and pitching coach was Tom Holliday, Matt's dad. Farrell stayed at OSU through his Senior year and was drafted in the second round of the '84 draft by Cleveland. After hanging up his spikes he returned to OSU, where Tom Holliday was then head coach, as the team's pitching coach and recruiting director. The OSU catcher at that time was Josh Holliday, Matt's brother. Josh Holliday is now an assistant coach and the recruiting coordinator at Vanderbilt.


Mick Doherty - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#241619) #

Back to Moneyball ... I enjoyed the book and will probably see the movie that is about to come out eventually, on Netflix or something, but ... but .... the Billy Beane role is being played by Brad fracking Pitt????

Really?

Magpie - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#241620) #
the Billy Beane role is being played by Brad fracking Pitt????

Well, they want people to actually go see the movie.
mathesond - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#241622) #
Something that just occurred to me - how many 2014 (or possibly 2105) dollars will $2.5 million 2011 dollars buy?
hypobole - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#241623) #

Yes, there were other players but it was a reasonable assumption that they could sign him for around 2.5m.  Norrie gave in, Bell gave in.

No, it was not a reasonable assumption. Bell and Beede were the 2 draftees who sent letters more or less saying "don't bother drafting me". Yeah, Bell did end up signing ...for $5 million. So if you want to put it that way Beede gave in also...for $3.5 million.

Also, one last thought on AA saying the fact the Jays didn't give in sends a message to agents in future negotiations. Didn't they send this message 2 years ago? 

dawgatc - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#241633) #
I never get the education first theory - who is stopping these kids from going to college and why do you have to do it when they're 19 ??- with 2.5 mill;I figure you could pay for yourself to go to Harvard when ever you want to - why does the money have to mean no university?? - I just think its stupid not to take the dough but it also calls into question how badly do they want to be a ballplayer
baagcur - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#241635) #
College Babes >> A- Groupies
lexomatic - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#241636) #
"College Babes >> A- Groupies"
Or if you're in Miami, hookers >>groupies
Going back to school with a bunch of 19-20 yr olds, the majority of whom just want to party, is a lot less fun than being one of those 20 yr olds wanting to party.
Thinking long-term at that age is just a rare attribute in a person.
hypobole - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#241652) #
Even though draftees who forego college will get $60K or so if they go to school after their carreers finish, I wonder how many actually take up the offer. I wuold think once a person has been out of school for 5+ years, going back is a lot tougher, and probably lower on the scale of priorities.  than going straight from high school. I would think even more so if the player is now married and starting a family.
hypobole - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#241655) #

I suspect in 6 months most baseball fans (bitter/disbelieving Jays fans and Anthopoulos detractors excepted) will have forgotten Beede turned down money to go to school.

I 100% disagree. Even though I think AA has done a great job and is one of the best GM's in baseball. I salso ee a bright furure for the Jays as long as he's at the helm. That's precisly why this puzzles me  and will not be forgotten,  Failure to sign top draft picks may seem commonplace to some but it's very rare outside Jayland and is a very big deal.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 20 2011 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#241690) #
My concern was not with the Beede misadventure, but more with the failure to sign any other LHPs than Norris.   Andrew Chin was hugely low-balled - he'd take $1.0 Million.   Andrew Suarez, Cody Glenn weren't offered much or they might have signed.
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