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The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on.
 - Bill James, 1988 Baseball Abstract

While there's only one leadoff hitter in the starting lineup, in the course of the game lots of players get a chance. Here's how the Jays' hitters have done (through Saturday's games) when leading off the inning:


Inning         G    PA    AB     R    H   2B   3B   HR  RBI   SB   CS   BB   SO    BAVG   OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                                   
Thames    30    39    37    11   16    4    1    2    2    0    0    2    5    .432   .462   .757   1.218
Bautista    60    81    65    19   21    1    1    8    8    0    0   15   12    .323   .457   .738   1.195
Encarnacion   62    92    84    21   33    8    0    4    4    0    0    8    8    .393   .446   .631   1.077
Molina    28    42    37    10   12    2    0    2    2    0    0    4    6    .324   .405   .541    .945
Patterson    54    84    81    17   28    5    1    2    2    0    0    2    9    .346   .369   .506    .875
Lawrie    4     6     6    1    1    0    0    1    1    0    0    0    2    .167   .167   .667    .833
Arencibia    55    79    77    13   16    2    0    9    9    0    0    2   24    .208   .228   .584    .812
Escobar    108   188   169    33   50    7    1    4    4    0    0   18   16    .296   .367   .420    .787
Rasmus    14    17    16    1    4    0    0    1    1    0    0    1    4    .250   .294   .438    .732
McCoy    21    31    26    3    5    1    0    1    1    0    0    5    7    .192   .323   .346    .669
Lind    68    95    94    16   24    2    0    4    4    0    0    1   15    .255   .263   .404    .667
Davis     57    85    81    17   18    4    2    0    0    0    0    3   18    .222   .259   .321    .580
Rivera    37    58    56    6   14    3    0    0    0    0    0    1    8    .250   .263   .304    .567
Hill     71   111   106    13   20    3    0    2    2    0    0    4   13    .189   .225   .274    .499
Snider     30    40    36    5    7    1    0    0    0    0    0    3   14    .194   .275   .222    .497
Cooper     8    13    12    2    1    0    0    1    1    0    0    1    1    .083   .154   .333    .487
McDonald    33    50    49    6    9    2    0    0    0    0    0    0    4    .184   .200   .224    .424
Nix     23    31    29    3    3    0    0    0    0    0    0    2   10    .103   .161   .103    .265
Teahen     3    3     3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    .000   .000   .000    .000

Their usual spot in the batting order guarantees that Eric Thames and Jose Bautista will not be leading off an inning in their first at bat of the game. They do seem to like being the first guy to bat, though. And while he doesn't do much else, It's strange that J.P. Arencibia leads the team in homers leading off an inning. He's coming off the field, peeling off the shin pads and the chest protector, finding his batting gloves... and wham!

Yunel Escobar has usually been the man to lead off the ballgame, and in the first inning he's been especially good:
                                                                    
Game    G    PA    AB    R    H  2B   3B   HR  RBI   SB   CS   BB   SO    BAVG    OBP     SLG    OPS
                                                                   
Escobar    95    95    84   17   29    4    1    1    1    0    0   10    8    .345    .421    .452    .873
Davis    23    23    22    6    6    1    1    0    0    0    0    1    4    .273    .304    .409    .713
McCoy    5     5     5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    2    .000    .000    .000    .000
Hill     2    2     2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    .000    .000    .000    .000
Patterson    2     2     2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    .000    .000    .000    .000

Leadoff Hitters | 73 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#241769) #
As a whole, the club has hit .265/.317/.436 while leading off as compared with .253/.318/.417 generally.  Batters generally hit for a higher slugging percentage leading off and a lower OBP (there are no intentional walks, official or otherwise, to leadoff hitters among several other factors).  The club has overall been pretty fair in this department, thanks to Yunel.
BlueJayWay - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#241773) #
This makes me think of OBP generally, and what I see as the biggest overall weakness of the offense.

The Jays have a ..318 team obp right now.  That's 7th in the AL and below the AL average of .322.  You are not going to compete in this division without a solidly above average obp, imo.  TBay won the division last year with a .333, and I believe that's the lowest mark for a AL East winning or wildcard winning team in a long time.  Going up against Boston and NYY, you pretty much have to shoot for a .340+ mark.  In order to do this you want as many of your regulars posting a .350+ obp as possible (assuming your bench guys are lower which drags the overall team stat down). 

I know AA is aware of this, as he said after the Rasmus trade that he's looking for guys that can take a walk.

Looking ahead at the 2012 Blue Jays, I see two hitters you can definitely expect to post a .350 obp; Jose Bautista (who should at least be in the high .300s and maybe over .400 again), and Yunel who seems like he's returned to being that steady .360-.370 guy.  In the "Possibles" category we have Lawrie and Rasmus, who I think both have the ability to post a .350, but we don't really know yet.  Further down we have guys like Lind and Encarnacion, who *might* be able to, but their history suggests probably not.  Edwin's posting a .339 this year, and .337 career, .320 as a Blue Jay.  He did have a couple of seasons in the .350s back when he was with the Reds.  Lind has only done it once, posting a .370 back in his big 2009 season.  Lind is a career .320 obp hitter, so it's not likely we can count on him doing it consistently at this point, or maybe even ever again.

The rest of the team looks like no chance.  Arencibia, Hill, Snider, Thames. 

IMO we need another couple of big on base guys in this lineup.  This is where a Pujols or Fielder or Votto or someone like that would help sooo much.

Ryan Day - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#241774) #
Perhaps the Jays need to make sure Arencibia has no time to think about anything before he goes up to the plate. Get him a Playstation or something to distract him in the dugout.
Mike Green - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#241776) #
Nah.  Arencibia's line leading-off is about what you would expect.  More homers and fewer walks than usual.  His K rate is pretty terrible. 

Several people have posted here that Arencibia's OPS+ is about league average for a catcher.  That may be true, but misrepresents where he has been overall offensively this year.  wOBA tells a truer tale.

greenfrog - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#241782) #
I don't know all the math, but isn't one weakness of OPS that it effectively undervalues OBP and overvalues SLG (for example, because a 350/450 OBP/SLG hitter creates more runs than a 300/500 hitter, despite the fact that both have an 800 OPS)? As a 213/277/435 hitter, Arencibia would seem to be less valuable than his 712 catcher OPS might suggest at first blush.
bpoz - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#241786) #
I like JPA's Rbi numbers. I don't know all the flaws in that evaluation.
92-93 - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#241791) #
That's exactly it, greenfrog. Arencibia's inability to get on base and overall poor defense keep him ranked near the bottom of catchers in terms of overall value, HR/RBI totals be damned. We all knew following Arencibia's ascent that his lack of plate discipline would be a problem, and it's showing.
BlueJayWay - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#241793) #
I don't know if it's a lack of plate discipline so much.  His walk rate is 7.4%, which is not hideously low.  According to bbref he's seeing 3.91 pitches/pa, which is a goodly number and actually above the major league average. 

It's just that it's hard to have a good obp when you're hitting .213

christaylor - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#241801) #
JPA BABIP is also a little telling -- he's getting a tad unlucky.

He is what most of us thought he would be, John Buck without the price-tag. As a rookie, I'll take that. I think he's shown enough to give us hope that he'll improve and be at least a league average (let's say by WAR) catcher in the coming years. If not, recall that the 92-93 Jays didn't exactly have Mike Piazza behind the plate or failing that remember the D'Arnaud isn't that far away.
bpoz - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#241805) #
I like JPA's rookie season, I even thought he may get a few votes for ROY.
uglyone - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#241809) #
Some nice timing on this post.....i.e. right after we just played a game with AARON HILL batting leadoff. ugh.

Our OBP for the season is still low, but the recent upgrades make it look much better going forward, I think.

Career OBP:

3B Lawrie .383 (MILB - .360)
SS Escobar .365
RF Bautista .360
DH Encarnacion .337
CF Rasmus .329 (MILB - .366)
1B Lind .320
2B Hill .318
LF Thames .316 (MILB - .385) / Snider .308 (MILB - .379)
C Arencibia .269 (MILB - .319)

The kids in LF should be able to post a decent OBP going forward, though JP never will....though that's not a huge issue compared to other catchers.

Again it keeps coming back to Lind and Hill not being up to par. Particularly in a division where their direct competition is Pedroia/Cano/Zobrist and Teixeira/AGone (and sadly Kotchman too).


uglyone - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#241816) #
Arencibia's inability to get on base and overall poor defense keep him ranked near the bottom of catchers in terms of overall value, HR/RBI totals be damned

Actually, he isn't near the bottom of any overall rankings, he's a little below average.

35 catchers have received 200pa or more this year. Here's how JP ranks amongst them (with 17th-18th being the median catcher):

  • OPS: .712 (21st)
  • wOBA: .308 (23rd)
  • WAR: 1.1 (22nd)
  • Mike Green - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#241823) #
    I used 300 PAs because 200 PA captures a lot of very part-time catchers.  The idea was that Arencibia would be where John Buck was in a good year.  This year, Arencibia has been a smidge behind the Buck of 2011 rather than the Buck of 2010.  Arencibia has had a lesser season than the catcher on every other contending team in the AL.  On the other hand, he has been hurt a lot (and this happened throughout his minor league career).  One gets the feeling that when healthy, he can be a quite a bit better than this. 
    Spookie Wookie - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#241834) #
    Arencibia seems to be having at least as good a season as either of the AL West contenders' catchers (Mathis and Torrealba) and better than Shoppach or Jaso on the Rays also.
    Mike Green - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#241837) #
    True enough, although those clubs have basically split the catching role down the middle (unsuccessfully).  Arencibia's 2011 season is at about the level of Aaron Hill's 2010.  You still can have hope that he will be healthier and hit better than he has.
    Mick Doherty - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#241838) #

    he may get a few votes for ROY.

    Well, I assume you mean third-place votes .... a rookie SP winning 16 or so games in New York City is gonna sweep to the actual award, I think.

    Jonny German - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#241839) #
    New York city is so awesome.
    christaylor - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#241841) #
    Like Felix over CC, I hope the ROY voters see the difference between Pineda and Nova.
    Alex Obal - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#241842) #
    Pineda pitches in an easy park and Nova pitches in an impossible park? Seattle's defense is great and New York's is okay? I guess both of these are mitigated somewhat by the fact Pineda never faces the M's and Nova never faces the Yanks. Still, if it's down to those two Nova gets my vote.
    hypobole - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#241843) #
    Alexi Ogando for ROY?  His traditional numbers are on par or better than either Nova or Pineda, and sabermetrics better than Nova and on par with Pineda. He also pitches in a homer friendly park with suspect defense behind him. 
    Alex Obal - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#241845) #
    If he qualifies, it's got to be him. I suppose Hellickson has a plausible case as well.
    Magpie - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#241848) #
    Hellickson has an excellent case - maybe the best case, in fact - but if Trumbo makes it to 30 homers... I think we have a winner.
    Magpie - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#241849) #
    Ogando is definitely not a rookie, he worked in 44 games in 2010.
    christaylor - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#241852) #
    Not that it is the be-all and end-all, but Pineda is a full win higher than Nova on WAR.

    That being said, if I had a vote, I'd always vote position player over pitcher for ROY. Like MVP/CY the two ought to be separated out.
    Alex Obal - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#241853) #
    I stand corrected.
    Alex Obal - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#241855) #
    In related news, Gio Gonzalez is having a slightly better year than Ricky Romero, 2.8 to 2.7 on the WAR count (and in 20 fewer innings no less). This is an AL East team's ace we're talking about. I'm glad we have WAR to expose that division for the empty hype it is.

    I have an image of what would've happened to Pineda's 34.6% GB rate if he'd played half his games in a bandbox. On the other hand, WAR...
    christaylor - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#241856) #
    Yay! Cherry picking stats -- that's a fun game!

    Pineda's xFIP is a full half-run lower than Nova's.
    Jonny German - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#241857) #
    In related news, Gio Gonzalez is having a slightly better year than Ricky Romero, 2.8 to 2.7 on the WAR count (and in 20 fewer innings no less). This is an AL East team's ace we're talking about. I'm glad we have WAR to expose that division for the empty hype it is.

    Is this a joke? I don't mean to be insulting, but I really don't know. It doesn't sound like a joke, but it's absolutely incredible to me that you could feel that WAR is anywhere near reliable enough to take 2.8 to 2.7 as a clear indication that Gonzalez has been better than Romero.
    Jonny German - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#241858) #
    On a related note, it's not the least bit surprising that when it comes to BB-Ref WAR, the one based on what actually happened on the field (you know, where the games are played), Romero is far ahead of Gonzalez at 5.1 to 3.4.
    Alex Obal - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#241859) #
    xFIP doesn't eliminate the fielding advantage. Its denominator is outs. FIP and xFIP are in fact not fielding-independent... 

    The idea in awards voting is to reward performance. The pitcher's job is to throw innings and keep runs off the board. Pitching with every conceivable advantage - park, defense, schedule, low pressure - Pineda was barely any better at that than Nova. Which doesn't change the fact that Pineda is younger and likely more talented. He'll probably be the better player going forward. But if we're playing the 2011 season over again, given the choice between a guy who put up Nova's peripherals for the Yankees and a guy who put up Pineda's for the Mariners, I will take the Nova guy on the Blue Jays 10 times out of 10.
    Alex Obal - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#241861) #
    Jonny, that was my poker-faced attempt to be so wrong on every conceivable level that nobody knows where to start ripping me apart. I am blatantly ignoring strength of schedule (not to mention park factors) to make a statement about strength of schedule.
    Jonny German - Monday, August 22 2011 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#241862) #
    Thanks for clarifying Alex. The more I thought about it the more I figured you must have been joking.
    Paul D - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#241866) #
    I think it's Hellickson, not Pineda, who should beat Nova.
    uglyone - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#241869) #
    Not an impressive ROY class...if walden gets close to 35svs and keeps his era under 3.00 i think he gets it.
    Glevin - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#241873) #
    Absolutely Hellickson is ROY right now. He's 8th in the league in ERA pitching in the AL East. I agree Trumbo might get it though because voters do love those HRs. I don't see JP as a long-term problem. His production for catcher is fine even if he barely improves offensively and I agree with Uglyone- the problem is really Hill and Lind.

    In fact, Lind has now become a big issue. We all thought he was the long-term answer at 1B and in the middle of the order. Now, I'm not so sure. His 2009 looks like an aberration and he certainly doesn't look like a middle of the order hitter. The Jays do have options I suppose. The could trade Lind, put Encarnacion at first, DH Thames, and put Snider in LF. They could see what David Cooper could do although I don't see it likely he hits well enough to be a major league 1Bman. Not sure, but if the Jays aim to compete, 1B seems like an area they could upgrade.
    Mike Green - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#241887) #
    Who ought to be RoY?  By the end of the year, Dustin Ackley might have 375 at-bats at a very high level.  There is no one obvious standout, and so I will wait and see.
    Jonny German - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#241889) #
    One thing to keep in mind with Lind is that he's currently in the middle of a brutal month-long slump. On July 20th his OPS was 100 points higher than it is today. So yeah he looks bad, but it's very unlikely that he's genuinely as bad as he looks right now. He will no doubt look better at the end of the season than he does today.

    I fully expect Lind to be the opening day first baseman in 2012. I also expect EE to be on the roster, and if Lind struggles I expect him to start losing playing time to EE while Snider/Thames/Davis pick up DH at bats.
    Mike Green - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#241891) #
    Lind has hit .263/.308/.460 for the year.  His career line is .270/.321/.470. Bearing in mind the decline in offence throughout the league, his 2011 line is entirely consistent with his career.  At this point, he's a below average player, as are Hill and Arencibia.  These are the upgrade opportunities for the club on offence.
    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#241893) #

    The problem with Lind, and a few other Jays hitters, is that they might not "struggle" next year but they might be average.  Yes, we know what these guys are capable of, at their peak. Some of them are probably at their peak now.  But they're more likely to be around average in 2012.  And that won't be good enough for a contending team.  That's why, in my view, Anthopoulos needs to keep trying to upgrade the team.  And yes, I know there's a debate about what "average" means, and there's a debate about how many "average" players can be carried on a contending team, but my point is that there's a definite risk that the Jays will have too many decent-but-not-great hitters next year.

    In statistical terms, right now we're getting (in my view) close to peak production from Bautista, Escobar, Thames, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Arencibia and Molina.   Compare their current numbers to their career numbers and they're as good as we could hope for.  Yes, there's a chance that they could improve, but I see that as less likely than a slight or moderate decline. The veterans could decline from their peaks, and the rookies could decline as the league adjusts to them.  I don't know if AA should accept the risk of just sitting back and hoping that they continue at their current levels.

    I admit there's a chance that the hitting could improve, by itself, without any adjustments.  Yes, maybe Lind and Rasmus and Thames and JPA will all improve, and maybe Snider will make the long-awaited breakthrough.  It could happen.  Even if 3 of those guys improve and 2 stay the same, the hitting could improve overall.  But I really hope that AA is looking for ways to keep improving the lineup.

    BumWino - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#241895) #

    I did an old-fashioned re-eleration of some of Lind's traditional stats the other day.  I have a lot of time on my hands, so I did this to amuse myself.  You know, anticipating the hilarious reaction of the advanced-stats nerds to my majorly, majorly comprehensive baseball research project.

    Lind's missed a couple of dozen games or so this year, so I had to take that into consideration.  His results to date were extended to 160 games (I slam-dunked the other two scheduled games on a whim).

    Age: 28     Salary:  $5.15 million

    Runs: 78    BA: .263    HR: 35    RBI: 115    OPS: .768

    Then I did the same for The Prince.  His OPS is .976, but if some of his other numbers extend out consistent to current results, based on 160 games played, he will hit 35 HR's and 123 RBI this year.

    Prince earns $15.5 million and that's going to go up, up. up. 

    Okay, sabermetrics nerds, go for it.  More crapping on Adam Lind will yield even more laughter at this end.   Hint:  If you got nothing, just tell me that I'm cherry-pickin'. 

    Seriously, there is one thing I was hoping you advanced-stats nerds could tell me.  Last game, Perez and Janssen combined for a one-hit shutout.  I have to admit that I didn't see the advanced stats for the game. 

    Please let me know about the advanced stats at your earliest.   Because there is no way I can tell whether or not Perez and Janssen pitched well without seeing the advanced stats. 

     

     

    Mike Green - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#241896) #
    Lind is not average.  His below average ability to reach base, to field first base and to run the bases outweighs his slugging ability.  He'd make a fine platoon player with Encarnacion. 
    Mike Green - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#241897) #
    Bum Wino, look at it this way.  If you put John Lowenstein behind Babe Ruth in the batting order and gave him a full-time job, he would probably drive in 115 runs.  Notwithstanding this, Earl Weaver was smart enough to platoon him with Gary Roenicke.
    BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#241898) #
    Lind has hit .263/.308/.460 for the year.  His career line is .270/.321/.470. Bearing in mind the decline in offence throughout the league, his 2011 line is entirely consistent with his career.  At this point, he's a below average player, as are Hill and Arencibia.  These are the upgrade opportunities for the club on offence.

    I agree.  This is what I said upthread - Lind is part of the problem with this offense.  He is not someone you can count on for a .350 obp.  He's 28 now, has more than 2400 PAs under his belt, he pretty much is what he is.  He's only had one truly good year for a first baseman.  He could pull a Bautistian turn around and become a superstar, but that's extremely unlikely.  He could have a few more good/solid seasons ahead.  This is likely, but probably not good enough in this division.  He's capable of getting hot for a few weeks or maybe a month at a time and looking like the best hitter in the league, but overall, for a six month season, year in and year out, he's not good. 

    Simply put, Lind makes too many outs.  This is why I'm on the Pujols or Fielder bandwagon, or trying to find a way to pry Votto out of Cincinnati. 
    BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#241900) #
    Okay, sabermetrics nerds, go for it.  More crapping on Adam Lind will yield even more laughter at this end.   Hint:  If you got nothing, just tell me that I'm cherry-pickin'.

    BumWino, I'm not sure if this kind of ignorant snark is helpful or called for.
    Jonny German - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#241902) #
    I admit there's a chance that the hitting could improve, by itself, without any adjustments.

    Nix -> Lawrie
    Patterson -> Thames/Snider
    Davis -> Rasmus
    Hill -> Anyone (including Mike McCoy or Aaron Hill himself)


    There's 4 major adjustments for you right there over an offence that's currently 4th best in the league.
    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#241903) #

    ....Lind is not average....

    Not sure who you're disagreeing with.  I've just reviewed the thread, and I don't see anyone who is arguing that Lind is currently an average hitter!  (My own point was that he might be average next year, rather than "struggling", and even an average hitter isn't something for the Jays to be content with.)

    You listed Lind, Hill and Arencibia as the possible "upgrade" positions.  I agree with that, but I would add DH and LF because there's such a high risk of decline by Encarnacion and Thames next season.  I mean, I love what these guys are doing now, but I just don't see much assurance that it will continue.  There's only four hitters (Bautista, Rasmus, Lawrie and Escobar) with whom I'd feel content with in 2012.  The rest are, quite frankly, a bit of a gamble. 

    Mike Green - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#241905) #
    That is very true.  I have this dream though of an offence that batters opponents into submission.  The basic ingredients for that are present.
    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#241906) #

    ....There's 4 major adjustments for you right there over an offence that's currently 4th best in the league....

    But those adjustments aren't good enough.  Over the past 19 games, the Jays have averaged 4.5 runs per game.  The Yankees are averaging 5.4 runs per game this season, and the Red Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game.  And, as I said before, the current Jays offence is benefiting from peak-level performances from several hitters which won't likely be sustained next season.

    Yes, the Jays have faced some tough pitching this month, but they've also faced Seattle and Baltimore.  And yes, a 19-game sample isn't enough to make definitive judgments about the Jays, but it's enough to suggest that they shouldn't be complacent.

     

    Spifficus - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#241907) #
    It's not just 'not definitive', it's misleading. In that time, they played 3 vs TB, SEA and LAA, and 7 vs OAK. Only 3 games have been vs a team that isn't a pitching-and-defense team (3 vs BAL). This is why drawing conclusions from 19 games really isn't the best way to go.
    Jonny German - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#241908) #
    Over the past 19 games, the Jays have averaged 4.5 runs per game.

    And for the 19 game stretch ending July 24th they averaged 6.00 runs per game. Let's see if we can trade this Rasmus bum back to St. Louis for Corey Patterson. The sky is surely falling.
    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#241910) #

    I'm not suggesting that the sky is falling.  Far from it.  Please quote me accurately.  I only said that the improvements aren't sufficient.

    You argued that the Jays have made a big upgrade on offence -- improving one-third of their lineup.  I'm just asking:  where are the results?  In the season as a whole, the Jays are averaging 4.7 runs a game.  In August, they're averaging 4.5 runs a game.  I'm not arguing that they are worse than they were before -- I'm saying that the improvement isn't enough. 

    Spifficus - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#241912) #
    Ummm... I think you're confusing me for someone else. I'm just pointing out the folly of trying to divine from the tea leaves of a 19 game sample sizes when there are obvious reasons (one of many is the schedule). You can still think what you want about the offense (I happen to mostly-disagree with it, except "they shouldn't be complacent" because, well, being complacent is just bad policy), but looking at a 19 game sample is rarely informative.
    Jonny German - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#241913) #
    And I'm saying your 19 game sample is not even worth talking about. Over the 19 games ending May 18 the Yankees averaged 4.16 runs per game. Why didn't they start the fire sale right then and there?
    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#241914) #

    Spifficus, just FYI, my comments were not in response to your comment, they were in response to Jonny's comments.

    Anyway, you and Jonny are perfectly free to dismiss the past 19 games as irrelevant if you wish.  But you're missing my larger point:  Lawrie and Rasmus aren't going to transform this team into contenders next year.  It will take more than two very young players who are still vulnerable to adjustment issues. 

    Rather than arguing about sample-size questions, let's hear what you and Jonny actually believe -- do the Jays have a good enough lineup now?  I'm saying no.  Are you saying that the lineup is fine now?  Or, if 2B is upgraded, is that enough? 

    John Northey - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#241915) #
    Lind is what we see this year.
    Career OPS+ of 108
    Seasons with over 70 PA, all listed actually had 300+
    In order: 77-100-141-90-106
    From high to low: 141-106-100-90-77

    Ouch. I have trouble seeing that 141 as anything but a career year at this point, after 2424 PA. I hoped earlier this year that his 106 so far would've stayed up in the 120-140 range but it hasn't. He just isn't that good a hitter. In many respects he is another Josh Phelps - someone who can hit, but is streaky and not good defensively. As a first baseman he is not league average. His split OPS+ (OPS+ while playing position vs league average at that position) is just 92 while DH is at 98.

    Checking this year (they don't have sOPS+ for career)...
    1st half: 141 sOPS+
    2nd half: 56 sOPS+

    April: 108 sOPS+
    May: 296 sOPS+
    June: 186 sOPS+
    July: 62 sOPS+
    August: 45 sOPS+

    This is actually a point for hope. Hope that he is injured and just not telling anyone. Otherwise he is that 100 OPS+ hitter who isn't worth it at 1B/DH.

    Lind at $5 mil a year for the next 2 years plus $3.5 in buyouts ($6.75 mil a year basically) is not a killer on the budget if he keeps at 100 for OPS and if he can still go to LF when needed (becomes pinch hitter, plays vs RHP fairly often). If he stays at this horrid level (John McDonald level offense) then he has to be released. If he recovers to 1st half he is a bargain at twice the price and those $7-8 million option years (2014-2016) could be picked up.

    I suspect how Lind and EE perform in September will help decide how aggressive the Jays are in free agency. If both slump in September and suggest neither can hit for a 110+ OPS+ in 2012 then the Jays have to chase either Fielder or Pujols or some other big bat for 1B/DH. If both hit well then the pressure is reduced and they can make loose inquiries but not feel the need to risk $25 mil+ a year over 5+ years. If one hits and the other doesn't then AA has to decide how much money it is worth to have a killer bat to go with EE/Lind platooning in the other slot.

    Btw, EE's splits...
    1st half: 92 sOPS+
    2nd half: 175 sOPS+ (Bautista level)

    April: 82 sOPS+
    May: 66 sOPS+
    June: 135 sOPS+
    July: 151 sOPS+
    August: 165 sOPS+

    So maybe we 'platoon' by having Lind play in April/May while EE is DL'ed, June both play, July/August Lind goes on the DL. :)
    Spifficus - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#241916) #

    Spifficus, just FYI, my comments were not in response to your comment, they were in response to Jonny's comments.

    Yeah. Kept getting distracted while writing the post and didn't realize until after a few minutes.

    As for the offense, the team is 6th in the majors in runs and 8th in wRC+. It's also now a younger and better team than what was on the field for most of the year. I don't see why this team can't be projected to be at least the same next year, and that should be enough to be the core of a contending team. Now, that said, Lind and Hill have made themselves easy targets for replacement (except for the part of, well, you know, actually finding the replacements). If the opportunity's there and doesn't have a negative impact elsewhere, I have no problems with upgrading either.

    The real issue next year is pitching. The Jays are 22nd in ERA and FIP, and 19th in xFIP. This is the area they have to dramatically improve upon for next year; the starting rotation in particular, though I suppose now they also need to reconstitute their bullpen.

    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#241917) #
    Spifficus, I basically agree with all of those points.  It's just a question of where the emphasis is placed.   Some people seem to think that the Jays need to add a veteran starter and a closer, and voila, playoffs.  I think it's going to be a lot more challenging than that.
    Mike Green - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#241918) #
    My point is that there are several ways to win.  One way is to have above-average pitching, above-average defence and above-average hitting.    Another way is to batter the opponents into submission with a league best offence while having average defence and average pitching.  Depending on how one allocates resources, this club could attempt to compete in either fashion.
    greenfrog - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#241920) #
    Some interesting internal options for the rotation could emerge before too long. If Alvarez can refine his delivery and breaking ball by opening day 2012, the front four could be set: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez. It might not be long before one of the more advanced prospects emerges as an additional option (eg, McGuire, Jenkins, Molina, Hutchison). Perez could also be a 5th starter to start 2012. Syndergaard, Nicolino or Sanchez are obviously promising, but are probably at least two years away and there is always a high attrition rate among prospects.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see AA add one solid mid-rotation starter from outside the organization sometime over the next year. No doubt he'll take his time and target the player he and his scouts feel is the best fit.
    Spifficus - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#241922) #
    I'm one of those people, though I'd add a few qualifiers. First, the starter needs to be a #2 / strong #3 type (I continue to be intrigued by Billingsley), a swing-and-miss closer (more for my own sanity than any belief in the absolute supremacy of closers) and someone who can be a good lefty setup guy (so Perez can take the role of #2 lefty). Adding in a star replacement for Hill or Lind would also help, but to me, those pitching components (as well as better fortune with either Cecil or whoever tries to break into the #5 slot) are the key components.
    Jonny German - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#241923) #
    >do the Jays have a good enough lineup now?

    They have a lineup that can reasonably be expected to score as many runs as many playoff teams.

    >Are you saying that the lineup is fine now?

    Doing nothing to improve the second base situation would qualify as gross incompetence. Thankfully all evidence suggests that AA is not grossly incompetent. 1st base also has the potential to be improved, but I would wait until the end of the season to really assess it and it is very unlikely that I would rank it higher than #4 on the list of things to be addressed. I would not specifically look to upgrade the DH spot, I am very confident that some combination of EE / Thames / Snider / Lind / Davis will give good production there.

    >Or, if 2B is upgraded, is that enough?

    That is probably enough, yes. It is the only position that I feel AA absolutely needs to focus a lot of attention on in the offseason (unless you also want to count the fact that he should be actively looking to unload whatever he can of Teahen's $7M). Obviously AA should continue to be oportunistic about situations that arise, that goes without saying. That's how he got Escobar and Rasmus and said goodbye to Wells. If Fielder decides it's a weak market and he'd like to take a 1-year deal and try again next year, by all means, sign him up.

    Evidently I have a much more optimistic outlook than you on all of Arencibia, Lind, Rasmus, Snider, and Thames. I find it particularly bizarre when you refer to players that are 25 years and younger, who are not lighting it up and who have solid histories, as currently "playing at their peaks".
    Spifficus - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#241924) #
    Right, greenfrog. That young on-the-cusp pitching depth should help put the team in a better position to be 'lucky' in the back end of the rotation. It doesn't always work out, but it's better to have fallbacks as opposed to not.
    hypobole - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#241927) #

    There are quite a few opinions being expressed about what AA should or should not do to upgrade the Jays offense with Fielder or Pujols. But what WILL AA do? 

    Yes,1st base/DH has a  huge opportunity to be upgraded with Fielder/Pujols. But the Jays have Edwin at an extremely affordable $3.5 million option. He seems to be thriving in the DH role, which cannot be said of many players who have been placed in that position. Barring some catastrophic end of the season collapse, he's a slam dunk for the DH job next year. Adam Lind, as has been pointed out, is what he is, a slightly (or more than slightly) below average 1st baseman. However, he's also signed for 2 more years at an affordable $5 million per. Unless AA can find a taker in a trade, or unless he declines dramatically, he'll hang around for the 2 years. Finally there is  David Cooper, Still only 24, he has shown he can hit home runs in AA, and then trade off some of that HR power for doubles, average and a K rate well under 10% in the PCL.  In all probability, he's not a future star, but he is an asset  with 6 years of team control and a fallback should either EE or Lind fall off a cliff.

    Putting all this together, odds seem very slim AA will spend money like he never has before to upgrade a position that can be servicably filled with inhouse options. AA may surprise and prove me wrong, but I very much doubt it.

    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#241930) #

    ....I find it particularly bizarre when you refer to players that are 25 years and younger, who are not lighting it up and who have solid histories, as currently "playing at their peaks"....

    Once again, you're grossly misquoting me.  Apparently you don't bother to read my comments before you begin to twist them around.

    The phrase that you quoted -- out of context -- was followed by this sentence:  "The veterans could decline from their peaks, and the rookies could decline as the league adjusts to them."   So clearly the "peaks" reference was to the veterans, not the rookies.

    You'll find that comments are less "bizarre" if you actually take the trouble to read them.

     

    BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#241932) #
    Putting all this together, odds seem very slim AA will spend money like he never has before to upgrade a position that can be servicably filled with inhouse options. AA may surprise and prove me wrong, but I very much doubt it.

    Sure, a lot of things can be filled serviceably with in house options.  But we need as much star talent on this team as possible (AA has said as much so I know he agrees).  Too many "serviceable" parts doesn't get as anywhere.  At some point this team has to sign or develop or trade for more all-star level talent.
    ayjackson - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#241933) #
    I'd like to see AA flip Cecil and a couple of prospects into a topof the rotation starter (eg. Grienke, Kershaw, Garza, Annibal Sanchez, Felix).  Obviously Felix would be difficult to pry free, but I wonder what the Dodgers' situation will be in the offseason and whether Kershaw could be had.
    John Northey - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#241935) #
    Now there is a big question. What will AA do?

    Weaknesses:
    #1) 2B #2) Starting pitching #3) Bullpen #4) 1B/DH

    Solutions:
    #1) Replace Hill, but with who? No one in system ready. McDonald/McCoy not realistic. Hechavarria is probably a year away and requires either him or Escobar to switch to 2B. No one else in the system stands out. Free agents at 2B/SS include Alex Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer could play 2B (17 games) but is a RF/1B, Rafael Furcal (ss) has alternated great offense with poor years (last 6 are 107-78-166-91-126-59) but often is injured too and is entering his age 34 season, Kelly Johnson has this year and 2009 in the 80's while 2010 was a 127 and 07-08 were over 100 as well, Jimmy Rollins won't move from SS I'd bet and going into age 33 would be more expensive (97 OPS+ lifetime, 103 this year after 2 in the 80's), Jose Reyes would be interesting but boy will he be expensive and again won't move from SS (105 lifetime OPS+ but 143 this year with 30+ steals.

    #2) Rotation of Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Alvarez/Perez is where we are right now. Anyone new added would have to be a front of rotation level (#1/#2 - ie: 120 ERA+) and those are expensive. C.J. Wilson is a potential free agent (122 ERA+ lifetime, 130+ each of last 3 years), Chris Carpenter would be interesting but risky (37 next year). Few free agents jump out though so odds are a trade and that could mean anyone.

    #3) Papelbon is there, as are others. I don't see AA going for a $10+ million closer though. Odds are we'll see 2 or 3 former closer who might still have it fight it out again.

    #4) If AA goes nuts with the budget, Fielder or Pujols. If not Lind/EE with AA looking for a bargain power hitter somewhere via a trade (guy blocked most likely).

    I'd say 2B has to be top priority, but a big upgrade is possible at 1B/DH if he goes all-in. Unless 1st half Lind and 2nd half EE are the real deals of course.

    I'm expecting more relievers ala this spring, a trade for a 2B, and lots of rumours all winter about power hitters and power pitchers coming here.
    92-93 - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#241936) #

    They have a lineup that can reasonably be expected to score as many runs as many playoff teams. 

    And when the Jays move out of the AL East, Jonny German, this may become relevant. Until then their offense is not good enough to compete with NYY & BOS, teams in their division that are thoroughly outscoring them. Being as good on paper as DET or LAA does TOR very little.

    I must say I enjoy China Fan complaining about other people taking his quotes out of context and twisting his words.

    John Northey - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#241938) #
    Kershaw? I can't imagine the Dodgers are nuts enough to trade a pitcher going into his age 24 season (first year of arbitration) who has a lifetime 129 ERA+, who leads the league in strikeouts and wins with a 143 ERA+ this year and just 2.3 BB/9 (his lowest yet). He is a dream player at this point. Cheap, all-star level, potential Cy Young level, controllable for years.

    The only way that happens is if the Jays would eat a ton of salary and send quality back. Guys making $10+ a year for 2012 and beyond are Ted Lilly ($24 over 2 years & no trade clause), Chad Billingsley ($35 over 3), with Juan Uribe also being expensive ($16 over 2). Lilly has an 81 ERA+ this year after an injury plagued 109 last year. Billingsley has been in the 90's 2 of the last 3 years with a 107 in the middle after his 2 great 130's seasons. Uribe at 3B has a 56 OPS+ this season (nuff said).

    So if the Jays could get Lilly to waive his no trade clause (probably only if they flip him elsewhere right away), and accept Uribe as well and send quality ML/ready for ML back and the bankruptcy forces them to keep dumping then maybe it could happen. Maybe.
    Jonny German - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#241942) #
    And when the Jays move out of the AL East, Jonny German, this may become relevant

    Agreed. I was answering China Fan's question politically. I did go into more detail further in the post.

    More likely than a move out of the AL East is a second wild card spot. That also would make it relevant.


    I must say I enjoy China Fan complaining about other people taking his quotes out of context and twisting his words.

    Yup, it's good for a chuckle. And I plead "not guilty". Here's the full quote where CF said that what you see is as about as good as you can expect from Thames and Arencibia (I don't disagree about the other players listed). I don't see how it can be interpreted as something other than CF saying that Arencibia is unlikely to substantially improve on 90 OPS+ with bad OBP, and likewise Thames on 108 OPS+:

    In statistical terms, right now we're getting (in my view) close to peak production from Bautista, Escobar, Thames, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Arencibia and Molina. Compare their current numbers to their career numbers and they're as good as we could hope for. Yes, there's a chance that they could improve, but I see that as less likely than a slight or moderate decline. The veterans could decline from their peaks, and the rookies could decline as the league adjusts to them. I don't know if AA should accept the risk of just sitting back and hoping that they continue at their current levels.
    China fan - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#241944) #

    Glad that you've posted the full quote, so that everyone can see that I made a clear distinction between the rookies and the veterans. 

    And please feel free to post any examples of me misquoting anyone else.  I always post verbatim excerpts from the posts of others, to ensure that I'm quoting accurately.  I'd be quite happy to defend any of them, if you can find any to quibble with.

    John Northey - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#241946) #
    The good thing is AA has clearly stated his goal is to reach the Red Sox / Yankee level via building stars up. Average just won't cut it in the AL East (see Gord Ash for the definition of an average team, JPR was on the right track but was very snakebit).

    Right now with little doubt potential star level players are Escobar and Bautista with Lawrie looking good. Guys who have been there but dropped off are Rasmus, Lind and Hill with Rasmus the most likely to return to form and Hill unlikely. Encarnacion is hinting at it at long last but few would bet on it. For pitchers we have Romero at it, Morrow hinting but yet to do it for more than a couple month stretch, Cecil suggesting it a few times but seems unlikely, then a batch of prospects who could be but who knows (TINSTAAPP).

    So we have 3 guys who are there, 1 new kid who is showing it, 3 who have been there but we can't say for certain will again, 1 who is painfully close (Morrow). More needed that is for certain, and I'm hoping AA keeps going for the Rasmus' and Escobar's of the world.

    Of course, going nuts and signing Fielder and that pitcher from Japan (Darvish) could add two more :)
    ayjackson - Tuesday, August 23 2011 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#241947) #

    Kershaw won't be cheap for the Dodgers.  He is arb eligible and should see sizeable award this year.

    And yes, they would have to be nuts.  And many teams are.

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