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The hot stove will warm up some this week.  Both the team owners and general managers hold meetings this week in Milwaukee, I am sure the trade talk will heat up.  I assume major media will be in attendance giving us updates on the latest rumours.

In addition award season starts today with the AL and NL rookies of the year.  JP Arencibia is not expected to win the AL rookie of the year but he might get some votes.

We do also have some Blue Jay news, through Bob Elliott.

The major item on the agenda for the owners and GM meetings is an update on the status of the negotiations with the players on a new agreement.  MLB and the union have been meeting but the updates back to the teams have been limited.  With the owners and GM's getting briefed tomorrow, expect a lot of leaked information over the next few days.  The major items under discussion include:

- Free agent compensation.  Will teams still get draft picks to compensate them for losing type A and B free agents?  The union is opposed to the type A category as it lowers the value of those type A free agents who are not in the top tier.  Based on information leaking out, it appears that teams will no longer lose a pick for signing a type A player.  Also the compensation for these losses might be pushed back in the draft from the first round.   This might change how the Blue Jays approach signing players in the off-season.  Alex A has targetted players who could turn into type A or B free agents.

- Realignment.  The new owner of the Houston Astros could get approved in the owners meetings.  Media stories suggest that a condition of his acceptance as an owner is that MLB can move the Astros to the AL.  This would allow MLB to have 15 teams in both the AL and NL.  If the Astros moved into the AL West, each division would have 5 teams.  Also it would lead to year-round inter-league play.  The players have a veto over realignment and there had been stories that they wanted two 15 team leagues with no divisions.  However talk of that option has died down recently.

- Playoffs.  Tied into the realignement discussion is an expansion of the playoffs.   An extra wild card in each league appears to be the most likely and the debate is whether the wild card playoff is one or three games.

- Draft.  MLB wants to restrict the amount teams spend on the draft.  Draft slotting hasn't worked so the latest leaks suggest teams will get a budget for the draft, or for the first 10 rounds.  Consider it a draft salary cap.  Teams that exceed the cap will pay a penalty either in cash or in the loss of a future draft pick.   Depending on the specifics this could limit the Jays who have been big spenders on the draft in recent years.  However the cost to sign a pick is heavily skewed to the top of the draft, hopefully the Jays will not be picking there for a while.



The AL rookie of the year is a wide open race.  Jeremy Hellickson is favoured by some; Michael Pineda by others.  Eric Hosmer arrived late but impressed, as did Dustin AckleyMark Trumbo got in the news with his 29 home runs and Ivan Nova had an impressive season with the Yankees.  The Jays JP Arencibia won't win but he could be in the conversation.

In the NL Craig Kimbrel is the hot favourite.  His teammate Freddie Freeman should be his closest challenger.

The CY Young winners will be announced Tuesday and Thursday with the managers of the year stuck in between.  Roy Halladay could get the nod in the NL, Clayton Kershaw is his major challenger.  Justin Verlander could be a unanimous choice in the AL.  Kirk Gibson and Joe Maddon are favoured for managers of the year.


Blue Jays

Bob Elliott talked with AA in advance of the GM meetings and came away with a few nuggets.

First, the price for closers is very high, high enough to drop the Jays out of contention for the premium guys.  Elliott suggests the Jays will trade for a closer.  When he asked AA what the Jays have to trade, the answer was prospects. 

AA acknowledged that he isn't a fan of long term deals for closers:

As an assistant GM when the Jays were chasing free-agent B.J. Ryan, Anthopoulos researched free-agent closers who signed five-year deals. The only two he found were Jason Isringhausen, who signed a $33.5-million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, and Trevor Hoffman, signing a $32-million contract extension with the San Diego Padres.

Both spent at least a year on the disabled list.

“So basically if you were giving out a five-year deal you were only going to get a player for four seasons,” Anthopoulos said. 

I know some readers here would like the Jays to sign a big name closer but it seems as though the jays will not be doing that.


Secondly, the Jays will not trade Arencibia and will not rush d'Arnaud or Hechavarria.

Catcher J.P. Arencibia is not on the market as we suggested at the end of the season, since Travis d’Arnaud was player of the year at double-A New Hampshire and the Jays would be dealing from strength.

“Travis had a big year, like J.P. did when people were discussing if he was ready for us the next year,” Anthopoulos said.

“J.P. didn’t have success until his second year at Las Vegas. We’re a minimum of a year away from discussing d’Arnaud in the majors. He’s not on the radar for next season.”

Same with shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.

This makes sense, at least until August.   If d'Arnaud is raking then bring him up and if Arencibia plays better on his second trip through the league then his value would increase.


AA says he is happy with Rasmus in centre, I am sure he is but there is a lot of hope that he plays better in that happiness.


Finally, the Jays have a shopping list for trades, Alex might have a sore throat by the time Thursday comes around.

“I don’t get to see the Colorado Rockies or the San Diego Padres that often,” he said. “Everyone knows our holes. We discussed other teams, how many years of control does a player have, what a team will do if a free agent leaves, what are a team’s needs. We’re got a lot of balls in the air.”


Aaron Hill will not be back with the Jays anytime soon.  He has re-upped with the D'Backs.  Who will play second base?


Mike Matheny is the new manager of the Cardinals.  It looks like Terry Francona will have a year off.

What else is going on?

Hot Stove - Meetings and Awards | 116 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
85bluejay - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 11:52 AM EST (#246664) #
I think that B compensation should remain the same - Regarding A type compensation, having a team not lose a pick for signing a FA should satisfy the union concern about that causing a lesser market, a good solution would be the team losing the A type FA get a pick immediately after the signing teams' pick ( if Boston signs a type A FA and picks 21st, then the team losing the FA gets a pick between 21 & 22) plus the supp. pick   - However, I'm hearing that type A loss will be reduced to 2 supp. pick - at least, this means that if a team signs more than 1 type A FA, the team that loses the lesser type A guy doesn't get screwed with a lower rd. pick & also if your Type A gets signed by a bottom 15 team, you don't get screwed - I like this system better. 
Gerry - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:01 PM EST (#246665) #
If there is a draft salary cap then the two sides have to understand how draft compensation works.  In recent years the Jays have had a lot of extra picks as compensation for losing free agents.  If there is no cap relief then it limits who the Jays can target with those extra picks.
85bluejay - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:17 PM EST (#246666) #
If the Jays in their meeting are leaning towards 2012 as another "Building" year, then I hope they are open to listening to offers on Jose Bautista - if Atlanta offered Heyward,Teheran and Jurrjens - I would take that and try to spin Jurrjens in maybe a 3 team deal to get Chase Headley from SD to play LF - I think his offensive #'s will go way up away from that park - Anyways, I hope there are no untouchables and I'm happy to hear that AA is willing to move prospects.     
Mike Green - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:18 PM EST (#246667) #
Well, we do know that AA bats right-handed now.  Fortuitously, the club does not have need of a RH bat particularly. As for the rest of the news, do I believe him when he says JPA is not on the table?  Not exactly.  "On the table" is roughly the equivalent of "estate sale" in real estate.  The club has an alternative who is at least as good (and probably better) right now.  But, JPA is worth something significant. 

85bluejay - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:21 PM EST (#246668) #
Gerry, I think what MLB may do is tax teams that go above the slot recommendations or the budgets would have to vary depending on how many early picks a team has - I can't imagine a flat budget for each team.
sweat - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:43 PM EST (#246669) #
Does anyone else think that the Jays should make EE a utility guy who gets some time at 1st, 3b, LF and DH (mostly at 1b and LF)?  This would free the Jays up to go after a guy like Ortiz who is seriously undervalued compared to guys like Pujols and Fielder. as a full time DH.
Depth has been an issue for the Jays and it would be nice to have a major league talent that could fill in at a few spots in case of a longer term injury.
Ken - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:52 PM EST (#246670) #
Does anyone know how likely playoff expansion really is?
For me, this is the number one issue this offseason. The playoffs may actually become a possibility if there is a decision to add an extra wildcard. The fate of the team in the next five years is largely dependent on this decision.....

Ducey - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 12:54 PM EST (#246671) #

Based on information leaking out, it appears that teams will no longer lose a pick for signing a type A player.  Also the compensation for these losses might be pushed back in the draft from the first round.   This might change how the Blue Jays approach signing players in the off-season.  Alex A has targetted players who could turn into type A or B free agents.

The Jays have not actually received another first round pick since 2007 (I think) so the fact that they might just get supplemental picks may not change their approach much.

Gerry - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 01:05 PM EST (#246672) #
We are speculating about rumours at the moment.  The proof will be in the details and I am sure the Jays will pore over the final wording to see exactly what the rules are.
James W - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 01:27 PM EST (#246673) #
I read this article ( just before visiting the site.  Hopefully that provides accurate information.
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 01:47 PM EST (#246674) #
A lot of factors floating around right now.

At 2B the Jays B choices have all vanished (Carroll, Hill, McDonald) while many feel option A will go elsewhere (Johnson). Trade Rumours/Elliot list Brandon Phillips as an alternative ($12 mil in 2012 for Cincinnati then free agent - 2 GG's in a row, 100+ OPS+ 3 years running).

At 1B/DH/LF there is a royal mess - Lind, EE, Snider, Thames - none of which have shown enough (consistently) for a hitting only position.

The pen has lots of moving parts. I doubt any major signings will happen but a trade for a top setup man who looks like a closer in waiting is likely (should be cheaper than a 30 save guy but just as effective).

The rotation will be in flux until we know what is happening with Japanese pitchers I suspect.

So, with prospects to trade who do they chase? If the Reds are in a rebuild mode the Jays could give them tons of salary relief and talent for Phillips/Votto and they also have Aroldis Chapman who the Jays wanted badly but I doubt the Reds are ready to give up on him yet.

Teams likely to be cutting budgets due to ownership headaches (Dodgers & Mets) could be tempting targets. Sadly nothing the Mets have is attractive. The Dodgers have killer talent in Kemp (1 year to FA, arbitration, CF) and Clayton Kershaw (first year arbitration - seriously doubt available for less than a kings ransom), solid in Ethier (last year of arbitration pre FA - 120-130 OPS+ 4 years running in RF) and Hiroki Kuroda (121 ERA+ in 2011,106+ all 4 ML seasons in arbitration).

The collective agreement will affect a lot though. If free agency is changed from 6 years to 5 (for example) it would be a sea change for guys like AA. If compensation is adjusted it would be significant. If draft rules are change it would also be significant. Should non-US/Canadians be mixed into the draft then any extra picks jump in value. If the draft is reduced to, say, 5 rounds then things get even crazier. Most of these things haven't been talked about in the media, but who knows right?

Also, I'd love it if the players win out and we get one giant division with the top 4 teams per league going to the playoffs or the top 7 with a first round wild-card knock down (ie: team winning league gets couple days off, next 6 have 1 or 3 game series to determine who goes against #1). Lots of potential fun there with the Jays odds of making the playoffs skyrocketing and strong incentive to be the league leader or at least in the top few so you get home field in the knock down round.
92-93 - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 02:42 PM EST (#246676) #
David Wright is pretty attractive John, both figuratively and literally. I've probably said this many times but I still don't understand how he got through waivers in August. Do MLB front offices know something we don't? And if Johan is healthy, why wouldn't the Jays target him? With 2 years, 55 million left on his contract the Mets are probably willing to give him away for salary relief.

I like that everything has been quiet on the Joey Votto front. It makes me think something might be brewing.
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 02:54 PM EST (#246677) #
David Wright is a solid guy, but a lot of his value is in his being a third baseman and right now we've got a kid there who is pretty good.

Lawrie might be OK in LF and still be highly valuable, but I'd hate to move him away from 3B at this point. Wright makes $15/$16 mil the next two years. Getting him would make things very interesting but a lot of thoughts would be needed.
Jonny German - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 02:57 PM EST (#246679) #
"Do MLB front offices know something we don't?"

It's a mystery to me why you place so much credence on that rumour. It doesn't make any sense that no team would claim Wright, therefore it is likely untrue.

I checked Rotoworld's history to remind myself where that came from, but all I found was a contradicting rumour:
James W - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 02:57 PM EST (#246680) #
Kemp is on the verge of signing an 8-year, $160M extension.
92-93 - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 03:09 PM EST (#246682) #
David Wright is not a good 3B by any measure so it's weird that you'd say his value is in being a 3B. The Jays need a DH right now and Wright on a one year, 15m deal with a 1m buyout for 2013 looks pretty attractive to me. Acquiring Wright shouldn't necessitate moving Lawrie off 3B. David Wright was not claimed on waivers.
Jonny German - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 03:17 PM EST (#246683) #
"David Wright was not claimed on waivers." So says Jon Heyman. Good for him.
Mike Green - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 03:26 PM EST (#246684) #
And we think that David Wright would be a better hitter than David Ortiz in 2012 because...he was a better hitter in 2008-09?  he's younger? 

I don't know about you, but given the choice between Ortiz and Wright (and giving up a Bourjos+ equivalent), I would take my chances with Ortiz.

92-93 - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 03:37 PM EST (#246685) #
Ortiz costs a first round draft pick and is going to require a 2 year deal, if not more. People are worried about giving a contract to Prince Fielder because of how it will look on the back end, but you're advocating bringing in a 36 year old DH who can't run or field and might rely on some form of performance enhancing drugs to hit at an elite level? I put more stock into Ortiz's 2008-2010 than his 2011 season and would MUCH rather be committed to one year of a 29 year old David Wright than 2-3 years of a 36-38 year old David Ortiz.
Mike Green - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 03:47 PM EST (#246686) #
So you figure Ortiz was using PEDs in 2010-11?  I suppose he might have been. As might Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Curtis Granderson and Nick Freaking Swisher.

The consensus is that Ortiz will be going for $10-$12 million for 2 years, and a first round pick is worth a lot less than whatever you will have to give up to get Wright  (Bourjos is not chopped liver).  As far as I am concerned, the only reason to prefer David Wright is for his (theoretical) ability to play first base. 

greenfrog - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 05:22 PM EST (#246688) #
Is anyone else feeling a bit of a pang now that Hill has re-upped with the D-Backs? It seems like a good move for him, and hopefully he will have continued success in Arizona. I'm going to miss him, despite his struggles in 2010 and 2011.
ogator - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 06:03 PM EST (#246689) #
  Aaron Hill seems like a very nice man and he always seemed to play hard but if I may paraphrase Earl Weaver talking about a completely different player, "that guy had more second chances than my ex-wife."
bpoz - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 06:54 PM EST (#246690) #
I hope we don't have to wait long to see what really happens. I love these discussions.

Time for a good luck drink.
bball12 - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 07:43 PM EST (#246691) #
I would trade anyone to get Jair Jurrjens - just for the name.

Say it fast 3 times - Jair Jurrjens Jair Jurrjens Jair Jurrjens.

I just dribbled all over myself.

Mylegacy - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 08:00 PM EST (#246692) #

Dear Alex

How's tricks?

I hear you're a bit concerned about the cost of closers...heck I know how you feel...have you seen the cost of a good 18 year old single malt! Jeeze! But, Alex - the cost of closers is - (as the cost of 18 year single malt is) the cost of closers.

So now you're lookin' to trade "prospects" for a closer. OK. AND - you're lookin' to trade "prospects" for a 2nd baseman. OK. AND - you're lookin' to trade "prospects" for a top of the rotation stater. OK. But AA - if you trade three "prospects" for each that is 9 good prospects gone.

AND - among our many very fine "prospects" there is NO clear - kick ass BAT (power and OBP) - so now - or soon - you're going to need another Pujols/Fielder type of bat and we've none of that in house.

May I suggest - since you find the cost too high to pay the going rate for closers - that you sign Fielder for 6 years (he and Bautista will form a killer back to back heart of the lineup for half a decade), let McCoy play 2nd until Hechy is ready, and let Hutch or Molina FORCE their way into the top(ish) of the rotation and wait ONE MORE YEAR watching the "prospects" so you are POSITIVE who the keepers are. I really think we don't know enough yet about how the kiddy corp is going to develop to RISK getting rid of so many of them at this point.

You're faithful and obedient supplicant.


sam - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 08:01 PM EST (#246693) #
Is a situation in which the Mariners eat upwards to $15 million of the remaining $17 million on Chone Figgins contract attractive to the Jays? If he could find some semblance of the player he was two years ago, that would look very good at the top of our line-up. Even if he didn't, he would be an extremely useful utility player. I mean he plays multiple positions, did at least at one point get on base at an extremely high clip, and stole bases. Then again he would have to refrain from such incidents like this with Don Wakamatsu:

Also, I didn't know Tony Lovullo had a stint at 3B coach with the Red Sox.
greenfrog - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 09:07 PM EST (#246694) #
Not really hot stove related but John Sickels just posted his D-Backs Top 20 Prospects (Jays Top 20 isn't far off). Their top four prospects are potential pitching studs: Trevor Bauer (Grade A), Jarrod Parker (A-), Tyler Skaggs (A-), Archie Bradley (A-). Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
John Northey - Monday, November 14 2011 @ 09:35 PM EST (#246695) #
Seattle is an interesting one. They catch me as a potential payroll cutter with their 95 losses, LAA/Texas big spenders in their division, 100+ losses 2 of the past 4 seasons. Time to cut bait and rebuild.

So who do they have?
Ichiro: $17 mil then free agent, coming off his worst (by a mile) season at age 37.

Felix Hernandez: $18.5-$20 mil each of the next 3 years coming off a poor ERA+ year (by his standards, 111) yet his BB/9, K/9, HR/9 were all better than his career average. Just entering his age 26 season.

Brandon League: 37 saves, but just a 6.6 K/9 but just 1.5 BB/9 (where was that when he was here). Arbitration then free agency so could be available.

Chone Figgins: 2B/3B with a 93 lifetime OPS+ but just 39 last year (ouch). Solid baserunner (40+ steals 5 of past 7 seasons) who can bunt. Owed $17 mil over next 2 years and potentially another $9 in 2014 if he plays everyday in 2013.

So, what could be possible if the Jays would eat some salary? One wonders. Figgins could take over the backup infield role although no SS time since 2006. Ichiro would be sweet in RF with Bautista moving to LF - boy would that up the outfield defense. And Hernandez...sigh... if the Jays were willing to make life easy for the Mariners after 2012 (no need to insult Ichiro by not offering arbitration, getting rid of nearly $45 million of payroll in 2012) they might be able to make a miracle happen.

Of course, if Ichiro is washed up, if Figgins is allowed to play everyday at 2B, and Hernandez gets hurt then that is a lot of cash lost, but mostly for one year (assuming you'd get at least a few good years from Hernandez) and won't block guys for long at 2B/OF.

Seriously doubt it will happen, but fun to think about.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 10:20 AM EST (#246700) #
The contenders are moving fast, Phillies (Papelbon), D Backs (Hill) and NYY (CC). I suppose they cannot take any chance of missing out.

IMO if AA trades prospects a lot depends on who he gets & who he gives up. 2 SPs like Romero in the rotation for 2012 or 2013 will be huge when playoffs expand.
A proven Ace type like Felix Hernandez is worth high ceiling prospects, but it is not easy to get them.
Power arm prospects like Drabek, Alvarez & Syndergaard OR incredible results SP prospects like Molina, Hutch & Nicolino could be that guy. Morrow & McGowan are also in the mix. That is quantity & quality.
My thinking is that if any ML SP but Romero struggles and someone in AA is working on a 30-50 IP scoreless streak he needs to come up and get his feet wet.
McGowan had an incredible amount to prove in his Sept appearances. I take positives in that he threw about 75 pitches in all 5 games and in his last 3 games he controlled the walks very well. Also he never weakened in each successive start.
With over 60 ML starts both Morrow & Cecil IMO now have to take the next step or risk losing their spot in the rotation.

3+ studs in the rotation should help us make the expanded playoffs and in a short series I will take my chances against an offensive powerhouse like NYY.
ramone - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 10:36 AM EST (#246701) #
According to a tweet from Joel Sherman from the NY Post this morning, all type B compensation could be a eliminated this offseason and as he puts it "a few Type-As who really shouldn't be categorized that way like Saito, Kelly Johnson, etc".

The Jays seem to get somewhat screwed in that arrangement.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 10:44 AM EST (#246702) #
Can't imagine they'd change the compensation for this winter as teams have already made plans around it and have worked with it so far. Biggest change I could imagine being put in place for this winter is to remove the arbitration requirement or, maybe, to make type A's into two 'sandwich' picks rather than a lost draft pick for the signing team.

I suspect what Sherman is talking about is that is an option that was discussed but if put into place I can see AA (and a few other GM's) pulling their hair out. It also would put a feeding frenzy onto any type A's who are removed from compensation.
ramone - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 11:40 AM EST (#246703) #
Sherman seems pretty confident that at least the type B will be eliminated:

"Two officials briefed on the talks said there might be some tinkering done to help create a market for players at the bottom of the Type-A designation such as, say, Dotel. What could be done, for example, is that the signing team does not lose a draft pick, but the club that loses the player is awarded at least a sandwich pick.
However, both officials said they expect compensation for Type-B free agents will be eliminated this offseason. That compensation has been a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, but no lost pick for the signing team. Players who fall into the Type-B category this offseason include Aramis Ramirez, Jason Kubel and Frank Francisco, another reliever for whom the Mets have interest."

Read more:
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 11:41 AM EST (#246704) #

You're faithful and obedient supplicant.

That wonderful and all-too-common homonym error makes that phrase mean exactly the opposite of what I think you intended. HE's a supplicant?  :-)

we now return to our regularly schedule Bauxery.

greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 12:16 PM EST (#246706) #
This could be a depressing off-season for the Jays if the new draft compensation rules aren't grandfathered in. Not only might AA lose several early-round picks in 2012, but he might also be subject to a draft spending cap - which might make him regret not spending an extra $500K or $1M to land Tyler Beede in 2011 (ie, when he still had an unlimited ceiling).
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 12:23 PM EST (#246707) #
It would also turn the Napoli-Francisco trade from a neutral-to-moderately-bad one into a horrendous one, because the Jays would receive no draft compensation for FF in the end (presumably a prime reason AA made that deal). It probably also makes it more likely that the Jays exercise Francisco's option.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 12:40 PM EST (#246709) #
I just find it hard to imagine that mid-stream in the offseason they'd pull the carpet out from under the GM's. For next offseason, sure as everyone would have time to adapt. But to do it now would be like waiting until mid-season then announcing (after the trade deadline) that 8 teams per league make the playoffs instead of 4. Completely changes the mind set and forces teams to make panic moves.

Still, this is the league that cancelled a World Series. Better than the NHL who cancelled a full season + (and probably the NBA too) but hardly a group known for forward thinking.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 12:53 PM EST (#246710) #
John: I agree. I guess the countervailing argument is that the GMs have known for a long time that a new CBA would be negotiated this off-season, and that there might be new rules around draft compensation. In other words, there were no guarantees that the Type A/B system would remain in place in 2012. I don't think this is a particularly strong argument, though.
Beyonder - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 01:17 PM EST (#246711) #
Greenfrog.  It is not altogether clear to me how imposing a cap next year makes the Beede situation worse in retrospect.  There was no cap in place this year, and AA figured Beede wasn't worth the money he was asking for.  Next year, with a cap, there will be downward pressure on signing bonuses, but it will apply with equal force to all teams.  If anything, a cap might mean that you can acquire a player of Beede's talent for less money in next year's draft. 
John Northey - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 01:40 PM EST (#246712) #
Reading a few things I noticed that San Diego might be trying to dump Hudson as he is under contract for $5.5 mil next year with a $2 mil buyout for 2013 or $8 mil in salary.

Hudson is now entering his age 34 season and hit 246/329/352 for a 94 OPS+ last year. His lifetime OPS+ is now 99. He was also 19-3 for stolen bases-caught stealing. FanGraphs sees him as a $8 mil player last year and over $10 mil per the 2 years prior. His UZR/150 moved to the negative last year (-3.5) but was at +12 the year before.

An interesting option if Johnson goes elsewhere eh?
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 01:41 PM EST (#246713) #
Beyonder, it depends on the nature of the new draft spending cap (assuming one is created). If, as has been rumoured, the cap limits, say, the overall amount a team can spend on its first ten picks, then the Jays' strategy of outspending its rivals via by accruing extra picks and spending above slot (on higher-upside or college-bound players like Norris, Anderson, Dean, Lopes, et al.) will be constrained.

The immediate effect would be that, despite having a number of extra high picks in 2012, the Jays would be subject to aggregate spending constraints. This might result in more "safe" picks instead of the high-upside (and costlier) amateur players AA really wants.

Of course, all this is speculative and is based on one CBA scenario only. I have no idea what the new arrangement will actually look like.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 01:46 PM EST (#246714) #
So to conclude: the upshot could be that spending more on Beede in 2011 would have made sense, because the sky was the limit in the last draft. The first-round pick that the Jays received for losing Beede might be less valuable in 2012, not only because the draft class looks to be weaker, but also because of the potential spending constraints.
sam - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 02:12 PM EST (#246715) #
I really don't know about this cap. I wonder if the two-sport contract bonus will still work? I mean part of the beauty of the current bonus system is baseball gets a lot of guys who would be playing college football right now.

I also wonder how a spending cap will affect Latin America. If teams are capped in North America, and the cap is somewhere in the neighbourhood of $10-12 million dollars, I'd imagine some teams are going to go wild in Latin America.

Also this cap is probably going to push a lot of players to college and hence the lower minor leagues might slowly become redundant and obsolete.

There are repercussions here that I hope the baseball is looking at.

I still can't wrap my head around Sherman's report. Changing the rules half way through an offseason just seems unfair.
Beyonder - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 02:25 PM EST (#246717) #

Thanks Greenfrog.  I can see how the "last chance to overspend" argument applies to the draft overall, but not how it applies to the Jays' specific selection of Beede.  If he had slipped in the draft (say, he would've been drafted top ten overall but fell to 21 due to his contract demands) then yes, I guess this phenomonon won't be as pronounced next year under a cap -- but I have never heard from anyone that Beede fell because of signability issues.  I understood the jays felt he was simply the best player on the board at the time, and that most teams had him as a fringe first rounder.

Whatever the mechanics of the cap, I would expect any wage compression to happen at the top end of the range to the big ticket guys rather than at the lower end.   This would make guys like Beede cheaper to sign next year.

92-93 - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 02:48 PM EST (#246718) #
Sam, I'm with you on the international market exploding as a result of some sort of a draft cap. It would explain Toronto's interest in Omar Minaya.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 03:23 PM EST (#246719) #
It'll be interesting if teams have a total cap in the draft. I suspect we'll see a lot more guys unsigned - teams following what the Jays have been said to do in the past, namely the first guy to accept a deal of $x million will get it, the rest won't. Puts a ton more pressure on players to sign and to sign quickly.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 06:17 PM EST (#246720) #
With the cap the only way a HS player is gonna make a killing (because they are so much projection) is to go to college and as he grows into his skills his price will go up.

As to Beede - IF everyone had known that 2011 was going to be the last year of supplemental picks then all those guys would have held out for MORE 'cause they'd have had the teams between a rock and a hard place.

wacker - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 07:32 PM EST (#246721) #
Can anyone fill me in on the process of the trading of minor league prospects? For instance, do they go into these meetings with a list of players they are willing to trade and if so, do they get their ducks in a row by having these players get physicals, drug screens, etc. or is it all done on the fly?
SJE - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 08:02 PM EST (#246722) #
AA is always looking aquire high upside talent in the amateur draft and thus has assembled probably the best amatuer scouting staffs.If a draft cap is instituted then while other are balancing their spending over the whole draft why not target 5 players the top your draft board and very aggressively pursue them. The rest of the draft is for drafting friends,relatives, and fillers.Overall I defintitely not a fan of the  draft cap.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 10:12 PM EST (#246723) #

In general they are willing to trade every prospect. The Jays place a value on each player so they can assess a trade. There are no pre-meeting medicals as the Jays have no idea who might be traded. There is a general assumption of health for 90% of the players and medical files can be exchanged for more questionable players, usually pitchers.
jerjapan - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 10:15 PM EST (#246724) #
Interesting poll over at minor league ball ... when asked who's farm systems you'd like if you could start an organization with the farm system of one major league team, over 1000 readers posted the following results ...

Which farm system would you want to start a new team with? 13% Arizona Diamondbacks 144 votes
11% Atlanta Braves 120 votes
19% Tampa Bay Rays 207 votes
43% Toronto Blue Jays 472 votes
13% Texas Rangers 145 votes

wacker - Tuesday, November 15 2011 @ 11:40 PM EST (#246725) #
Thank you Gerry
Gerry - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 09:25 AM EST (#246727) #

Shi Davidi has a report from the GM meetings in Milwaukee where he talked with AA.

There is not much that is noteworthy in the story.  AA doesn't want to spend a lot on a closer, AA appears comfortable that the A and B compensations will stay in place for this off-season, nothing is happening on a second baseman until the deadline to offer arbitration to Kelly Johnson passes, musings about Darvish and Cespedes, etc.

Gerry - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 09:28 AM EST (#246728) #
Ken Rosenthal and JP Morosi report that the Jays have inquired about Huston Street.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 10:36 AM EST (#246729) #
Thanks Gerry.

I don't know how much of S Davidi's article is his opinion and how much is AA's thinking.

I think Davidi is clear on AA's guideline of not making a move if the $ amount & # years involved in any contract does not fit into his calculation.

I also feel that Davidi explained the Jay's 2B position quite well. He broke down the possibilities very well IMO.
K Johnson being Jay's property means that they could offer him Arb or even a contract they will announce that decision when they know what they are doing regarding KJ.

Davidi also got from AA's that will try to add a pitcher who consistently has an Era under 4.00 and over 200IP ie front of the rotation pitcher. Or else a mid rotation pitcher 200IP with an Era under 4.00 at least once and done recently.

Nice interview.
smcs - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 12:31 PM EST (#246730) #
Ken Rosenthal and JP Morosi report that the Jays have inquired about Huston Street.

Right. This isn't news. Let's all just assume that the Jays have talked to everybody about everything. And, again, what is the last move that we actually saw coming?
sam - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 02:21 PM EST (#246737) #
I really wonder where Prince Fielder is going to end up. It seems like a lot of teams rumored to be interested in signing him are ruling themselves out. I just don't see where he thinks he's going to get 200 million
rpriske - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 03:10 PM EST (#246741) #
Blue Jays-Official BlueJays Blue Jays-Official The .@BlueJays have claimed RHP COLE KIMBALL off waivers from the Washington @Nationals @MLB @JaysCare
China fan - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 03:16 PM EST (#246742) #

The Jays have claimed RHP Cole Kimball on waivers from the Nationals.  He's a 26-year-old relief pitcher who hasn't started a game since the age of 22 at Hagerstown.  Had pretty good numbers in AA at the age of 24, and pitched 14 innings in the majors for Washington last year with a nice 1.93 ERA but a horrendous 7.1 BB/9.   On closer examination, he also had a 5.2 BB/9 in 2010 at the AA level, so I can see why the Nationals let him go.

China fan - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 03:19 PM EST (#246743) #
Although the 12.3 K/9 in 2010 might indicate why the Jays are interested in checking him out.
Gerry - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 03:40 PM EST (#246744) #

Kimball last pitched June 9th.  He had rotator cuff surgery in June and it is uncertain when he will be ready to pitch.  That is why the Nationals thought he would get through waivers.


China fan - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 03:47 PM EST (#246745) #
I see a few Nationals fans on MLBTR are bemoaning the loss of Kimball. They're saying it was a mistake for the Nationals to try to slip him through waivers. But the reality is that Kimball's injury was serious enough that his future is very difficult to project. He is unlikely to be challenging for a Jays spot in spring training because he'll still be building up shoulder strength. But by the middle of the season there's a chance that he could be ready for the majors again. I still think his BB/9 is a concern, unless I'm missing something that's not visible from his 2010 and 2011 numbers.
TamRa - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 03:55 PM EST (#246746) #
I wonder if Kimball won't be one of those situations where you claim him and then later try to slip him through yourself and get away with what the original team didn't.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 16 2011 @ 04:24 PM EST (#246748) #
Plus, his name sounds a lot like Kimbrel, who just won the NL ROY award. That's gotta be worth something.

Glad to hear AA will get to hang on to his Type B compensation, but it still seems a bit unfair that he might lose his Type A compensation for KJ. After all, part of the upside of that trade was the potential that Johnson would eke his way into Type A territory, which is exactly what happened. I'm not crazy about the idea of changing the rules in midstream.
TamRa - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 01:17 AM EST (#246764) #
I have a hunch that the minute KJ is officially not a type A Alex will move swiftly to try to re-sign him.
Beyonder - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 09:36 AM EST (#246766) #
That's probably right, but with an emphasis on "try".  I think the minute Kelly Johnson in no longer a type "A" free agent he prices himself out of our range. 
greenfrog - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 09:46 AM EST (#246768) #
I was just reading the BA writeup on the Reds' top 10 prospects, and Alonso sounds like an intriguing option at 1B - I'm guessing he's on AA's radar (especially since the asking price for Votto is likely to be very high). I wonder if the Jays could obtain him for a couple of young pitchers. Here's a question: would you trade Alvarez for Alonso, straight up?
John Northey - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 09:49 AM EST (#246769) #
I still find it hard to imagine that the new agreement will change things already in progress this offseason - that everything will change for the winter of 2012-2013 instead (and for the 2012 season of course). Too many decisions have been made around the current agreement. They might look at a compromise where bottom 1/2 type A's give 2 sandwich picks or a sandwich pick plus a pick just before the signing teams first round pick. Still, it will be hard to decide which A's are not 'real' A's - especially if one of them signs a 3+ year deal worth $5-10 mil+ a year (entirely possible for Johnson).

Guess we'll see soon enough.
bpoz - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 09:51 AM EST (#246770) #
No, I would not trade Alvarez for Alonso.
John Northey - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 09:57 AM EST (#246772) #
Alonso is a guy I've had an eye on this season. He hit 299/354/479 for a 124 OPS+ so far in the majors over 2 seasons and 127 PA - a 154 OPS+ in 88 PA this season. He has been tried at 1B/LF/3B but is viewed much like Cecil Fielder was here when he was blocked at 1B by Willie Upshaw then Fred McGriff - namely they keep putting him out of position in a desperate attempt to find him a position other than 1B as 1B is occupied.

Last year in AAA he hit 296/374/486 in 91 games (International League) and has been a top 100 prospect 3 years running via Baseball America. He is entering his age 25 season so he is at the fish or cut bait stage - ie: either he gets a full time job in the majors or should be traded before the AAAA label is applied and his value plummets.

Ryan Howard was in a similar situation with the Phillies back when he came up. At 24 he hit for a 122 OPS+ but was blocked by Jim Thome. He spent 1/2 a season in AAA at 25 before coming up and pounding the NL and winning the ROY award followed by an MVP season the next year. Now, he hit a lot better in the minors, but the point is the same - either you call up these kids and find a slot or you risk wasting them in the minors.

Lets hope AA has a trick up his sleeve.
greenfrog - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 09:59 AM EST (#246773) #
I think Alvarez is a probably a better prospect, but here's the thing: the Jays have tons of young pitching, and some good positional prospects (especially at C and in the OF) on the way. However, they really have no one in the pipeline at 1B. Assuming the Jays are going to contend over the next few years, who is going to play first? It might not be the worst thing to overpay slightly and secure a decent young cost-controlled 1B.

Of course, I would prefer to send them McGuire and Jenkins, or something similar, instead of Alvarez.
Beyonder - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 10:25 AM EST (#246777) #

[E]ither you call up these kids and find a slot or you risk wasting them in the minors

Could not agree more.  The most precious/scarce commodity the Jays have right now is not prospects, but rather windows of at bats/pitching opportunities at the major league level.  We are a year away from an inexorable parade of prospects (mainly pitchers and outfielders) making their way to the major league club.  If we are going to make the most of this talent, each will need a patient and sustained audition on the big league club.  Jays will need to be much more careful about how they dole out these auditions going forward. 

The team's mishandling of Snider is a cautionary tale of what happens when you promote too soon, and then don't find a window of at bats for a top prospect.   

bpoz - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 11:00 AM EST (#246781) #
Extremely well said Beyonder. You put into words my thinking.

I too see that flood of good prospects coming and somehow blocking each other.
Take catching as a fairly clear example. For the 2012 Rule 5 protection JPA, d'Arnaud, Jimenez & Perez all have to be on the 40 man. So in 2013 JPA & d'Arnaud may be with the ML club, Jimenez AAA & Perez AA and maybe Gomes. How do Jimenez & Perez get ABs going forward, especially if we are in a pennant race.

Also how many ABs & IPs is a legitimate opportunity.

John Northey - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 11:48 AM EST (#246784) #
The challenge is coming, but it is a nice one to have. I'd rather have too many guys per position (ala the Jays in the mid-80's with Fielder/Upshaw/McGriff and the early 90's with McGriff/Olerud and the mid-90's with Delgado/Olerud) than the current situation where you have to leave Lind/EE as the 1B/DH combo.

Now, would I trade a guy who has shown he can pitch as a starter in the majors in his early 20's for a guy in his mid-20's who sorta showed he can hit in the majors (100 PA not enough to say for sure)? No. But I would trade a guy who hasn't shown it if I felt confident about the hitter.

The Reds and Jays match up well for trades as the Reds seem to be on the downside of the success cycle while the Jays are on the upside. The Reds have depth at 1B/2B and the Jays do not. The Jays have pitching prospects up the wazoo and a team that is rebuilding should want those. The Reds owe $10+ mil to Bronson Arroyo (mediocre starter who eats innings 199+ IP each of the last 7 years, 104 ERA+ over that stretch but just 77 ERA+ last year due to a doubling of his HR/9 rate), Brandon Phillips (solid 2B), and over $9 mil to Votto. Rolen is next in payroll (not coming here), then Cueto at $5.4 (again, not being traded).

The Reds are projected with a $90 mil one next year which I'm sure is higher than they want. I'm sure the Jays would love to take Votto & Phillips off their hands, but might have to take Arroyo as well in any deal (low K/9 too so might be toast in the AL East) who AA'd flip to someone else while eating salary I suspect.

Btw, I doubt Votto is available but one never knows and I'm sure AA is doing due diligence on it.
92-93 - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 11:49 AM EST (#246786) #
You don't overpay for a 1B. It's the easiest position to fill, and there's available FAs every single offseason. This year's include Pujols, Fielder, Pena, and Lee, and there's also the option of signing Ortiz and leaving a Lind/Encarnacion platoon to handle 1B. If the Jays are willing to make someone other than Mark Teahen the 2nd highest paid player on the team they solve the 1B/DH hole without giving up their 2nd best starter from 2011 who happens to be 21.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 01:46 PM EST (#246800) #
I agree with 92-93. The Red Sea will be parting shortly.
TamRa - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 02:49 PM EST (#246810) #
Alverez for Alonso?

Not remotely.

McGuire is about as high as I'd go.
92-93 - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 03:30 PM EST (#246816) #
The Red Sea will be parting shortly? Datzeil mir nisht kein booba meises, Mike.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 07:02 PM EST (#246835) #

You don't overpay for a 1B. It's the easiest position to fill, and there's available FAs every single offseason.

Really!   Then we're keeping Adam Lind - why?   And tell me exactly who at First Base is being blocked.  Cooper (AAA/MLB), McDade (AA), Ochinko (A+), Hobson (A), Patterson (A-), Charles (RK) will not be blocked.   IMO, they have a long way to go to just equal Lind, let alone be better.  Who on this huge list of yours?

This year's include Pujols, Fielder, Pena, and Lee...

Lee - too old.  Pena - average sucks worse than Hill`s.  Pujols - 5 years and $135.0 MM, and no longer contract than 5 years.  Fielder (27) - 4-5 Years at $22.5-$25.0 MM per years - to - 10 years at $200.0 MM, I`m willing to pay more if shorter term.   Any other real gems on the list?

Votto, Alonso - why not, they are a lot better than anyone we have.   Our best assets is very young pitching.   At OF, other than Gose, 2-3 years away.  At SS, other than Hechavarria, 3-4 years away.  At 2B, no one.  At 3B, 5+ years away.  At C, other than d`Arnaud, Gomes? - maybe 1-2 years, otherwise 2-3 years away for the others.  At SP, Cecil (MLB); Drabek (AAA/MLB); Alvarez (MLB); Hutchison, Molina, McGuire, Jenkins (all at AA) just to name a few.   This minor system needs to be better - sooner, so either trade Bautista and Romero, or go for it.

sam - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 07:21 PM EST (#246839) #
Richard you've got to be smoking something serious if you think either of the free agents you mentioned will settle for a five year contract. Here Richard, if either free agent does sign for five years or less, I will fully admit that I was wrong, but if neither do I will expect at least some sort of confession of the drugs that are currently in your system.
Gerry - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 07:42 PM EST (#246842) #
Latest rumour is that Jose Molina is about to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays.

What will Brandon Morrow do?
92-93 - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 07:46 PM EST (#246843) #
Maybe he'll pitch somewhere close to what his peripherals would suggest?
Alex Obal - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 07:55 PM EST (#246846) #
Blue Jays sign Brad Ausmus to two-year deal, $4.8 million?
Shaker - Thursday, November 17 2011 @ 08:26 PM EST (#246850) #
"The Jays and Reds match up well for trades..."

They sure do, especially since one team is long an extra 1B and short a LF, while the other team is long an extra LF and would love a young 1B.

I have no idea if Snider for Alonso is fair, but I'm sure the 2 GMs could easily even that out.

bpoz - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 09:24 AM EST (#246864) #
AA just spoke to Jeff Blair. He has his philosophies on trades.

More trades would happen in July than in the off season because you do not have FAs available as a choice. The FA pool will increase with Arb not being offered to various players. He definitely has struck in July.

AA plays it close to the vest, as we know. He stated his general rule to J Blair of constantly adding to his high level talent pool. He said that is what should lead to success and that is what he will attempt to do.

With the GM meetings now over, IMO the generalities of who is thinking what can be addressed more specifically.
Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 09:34 AM EST (#246866) #

Snider for Alonso?  If we just step into Cincy's shoes for a moment, would you think Snider (a 2006 first rounder) is a fair swap for your 2008 first round pick (7th overall), who has done nothing but rake throughout his minor league career, and just hit .330 with power for the big club in just under 100 at bats?  Snider, who was handed the starting job and then sent down to AAA on account of massive swing deficiencies?  Snider, who was sent down again because he couldn't beat out Eric Thames for at bats?

To even out that trade, the sweetener would have to be a better player than Snider.

Shaker - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 10:48 AM EST (#246869) #
Well Beyonder, as I said I'm not sure what it would take to even out that trade, but I think you are ignoring Snider's option value (or upside).

Firstly, Snider is one year younger than Alonso and made the bigs 3 years younger than Alonso did.  Alonso is also from Cuba and may (may) be older than his published age.

On to the stats...
Snider's minor league composite slash line: .306/.379/.522
Alonso's milb slash line: .293/.370/.466

Note the SLG spread.  Alonso has never SLG'd >.500, Snider has rarely SLG'd < .500.

Obviously I'm not trying to denigrate Alonso (I'm pushing to acquire him!) but I'm not sure Alonso's (small sample) 100 ABs in the bigs are that telling.  There's a good chance they are the same as Snider's first 100 mlb ABs.

Last point, Alonso plays 1B only, whereas Snider can play either corner OF position.

Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 11:23 AM EST (#246871) #

Shaker.  I don't post that often, but 50% of the posts I do put up are about Travis Snider.  I'm as optimistic as anyone about him, but we are talking about his trade value here.  I see all the things that you do, but I can also see (as can  you), is that for the past three years, the majority of Snider's at bats came at the big league level. His numbers for the big club are far less impressive (248, .307,.423) than the minor league stats you cite, and are obviously far more representive of what he can accomplish at the major league level going forward.   Also, a demotion that was publicly declared to be due to broken swing mechanics has also got to be an enormous red flag. 

It's only if you are willing to ignore all of these things that this trade seems remotely even.  I think Alonso would be a great fit for many of the reasons you mention, but an offer of a straight swap would get you laughed out of the room.




92-93 - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 11:38 AM EST (#246874) #
Sorry, but Snider's MLB numbers are not more representative of what he can accomplish going forward than his minor league ones. That's completely wrong. You are severely discounting the fact that he was 20-23 years old accumulating those stats, years that guys like Eric Thames & Yonder Alonso spent in college. A limited understanding of the importance of age relative to level is what throws people for a loop time and time again. I guess Alex Gordon's 7 WAR 2011 has taught people nothing when it comes to being patient with guys perceived to have gigantic ceilings. A Snider for Alonso swap would be the exact opposite of the type of trade AA made when he traded Wallace for Gose, so thankfully the Jays front office recognizes the massive upside of some players relative to the limited ones of others, and that's what Alonso has - a limited upside. It's extremely hard to be valuable at 1B if you can't run or field and don't hit like an absolute Ripper. And from what I remember, there were legitimate concerns that Alonso can't even hit LHP.
Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 11:57 AM EST (#246877) #

Let me get this straight.  Snider's major league stats accumulated over the last three years are less representative of what he can do at the major league level going forward, than minor league stats that were largely accumulated between 2006 and 2008?  

As far as Alex Gordon is concerned, I'm not sure what principle you think I should adopt on the basis of a single counterexample.  Is it that some players recover from slow starts to their major league careers?  I'm already with you there, and obviously there are much better examples close to home of that phenomona.  Bautista  and Gordon though, are exceptions that prove the rule.  Let's hope Travis is another.

And again, I'm not talking about whether we should be patient with Travis.  I absolutely think we should.  I just think some of us have very biased views of how other teams see our prospects, and what we might trade them for. 



John Northey - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 12:30 PM EST (#246882) #
Snider for Alonso is a good starting point. I'd suggest both add in someone else - a decent pitching prospect from here and a mediocre hitting one from Cincinnati (minor leaguers yet to reach majors) ideally a middle infielder.

Everyone knows Cincinnati has to clear out one of Votto or Alonso as neither can play anything but 1B/DH. That cuts his trade value somewhat. Also he is at the end of his prospect years and moving into 'AAAA' status if he doesn't get playing time. His manager left him on the bench to play Dave Sappelt (65 OPS+) instead in August/September. Not a vote of confidence.
92-93 - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 02:13 PM EST (#246899) #
Yes Beyonder, that's precisely what I am saying. If Snider doesn't skip Dunedin he could have spent all of 2008 in A+ instead of being called up to the major leagues. Think about that for a second. A 20 year old with ZERO experience at High-A prior to that season found himself in the big leagues later that year. Had Snider spent a full year at each level he would have likely destroyed A+ in 2008, AA in 2009 at 21, and AAA in 2010 at 22 to a far greater extent than Alonso did.

The principle you should adopt is this - if a 20 year old is among the top 10 prospects in baseball, his upside doesn't change because of 200 mediocre PA as a 23 year old in the bigs. Snider's .249/.315/.443 in 600 MLB PA as a 21-22 year old in 2009-2010 tells you much more than Alonso's 100 PA as a 24 year old being fueled by an unsustainable .387 BABIP. If Alonso had been in the majors long enough to give teams a second look at him to exploit the holes in his swing you'd likely have seen the regression that is typical in most young players who start off with a bang.
Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 02:19 PM EST (#246901) #

Everyone knows Cincinnati has to clear out one of Votto or Alonso as neither can play anything but 1B/DH.

The plan is for Alonso to play left field everyday. 

Gerry - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 02:48 PM EST (#246906) #
It looks like Ryan Doumit is going to sign with the Twins.  Doumit can hit but his defense is sub-par.
Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 02:58 PM EST (#246907) #

I like Snider too, but to support your theory you've seized on one part of his resume (top ten as a 20 year-old), constructed an alternate reality about what he would have done had a number of different things happened, and ignored what he has done the last three years.  Quite apart from that, you ignore the qualitative reason for his being sent down -- a completely broken swing.

What I'm saying is based on what I think are some pretty noncontroversial principles.  One, that as an indicator of future performance, it is better to look at what a player has done recently, as opposed to what he did four to six years ago.  Second, that if what you are trying to assess is performance in the major leagues, it is preferable to look at a past record of major league performance rather than minor league performance. 

Now, there are other principles, like the one you have correctly pointed out - that a lot more credit should be given for success at a younger age.  But at the end of the day Yonder has raked at every level.   Snider has been mediocre for the past three years.  His most recent performance at the major league level was abysmal, even if it was over only 200 PAs.   He is one bad season away from being somebody else's reclamation project.


John Northey - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 03:18 PM EST (#246909) #
Yeah, Alonso in LF much like the Jays did Delgado (58 games) and Olerud (just in talks and maybe spring) in LF everyday or the nightmare of Cecil Fielder at 3B/2B...entertaining but not in a good way.

The fact Cincinnati kept playing a guy much inferior to Alonso in LF last year tells me they don't really think he can do it. I read a few interviews where the manager was pretty much indicating he was putting Alonso everywhere to try to figure out how to play him and Votto at the same time but had 0 confidence in Alonso's defense.

If Cincinnati is following the 80's Jays method then Votto will go (trade more expensive guy and keep cheap one). Very effective here as the Jays upgraded from Mayberry to Upshaw to McGriff to Olerud to Delgado with Fielder being squeezed out during the crossover from the Upshaw to McGriff era. It is a smart way to go as it allows you to avoid overpaying for post-peak years (although they kept Upshaw about 2 years too long).
92-93 - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 03:20 PM EST (#246911) #
I'm not ignoring what he's done the last 3 years at all. I'm telling you it's been more valuable than what Alonso has done in predicting future peformance. Snider's 2010 wasn't poor at all, nor was it 4-6 years ago. It was LAST season.

And I'm sorry, but Yonder Alonso has not raked at ANY level when you consider the relevant factors. His numbers the last 2 years in AAA are unacceptable for a MLB 1B who can't run or field. Compare Alonso's work in the International League as a 23-24 year old to Adam Lind's and you might be surprised.

Let's be clear - I'm not against trading Snider at all. But if they do it better be for either someone with proven MLB talent or a guy with upside similar to Snider's, 2 qualifications that Alonso lacks. Gordon Beckham, on the other hand...
Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 03:39 PM EST (#246916) #
So you wouldn't even do the Snider for Alonso deal?  That's something else altogether.   AA does that deal in a hummingbird's heartbeat. 
Shaker - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:11 PM EST (#246921) #

Alonso 2010 (29 PA):  .207/.207/.276
Alonso Aug '11 (39 PA): .344/.462/.688
Alonso Sep '11 (55 PA):  .288/.327/.423

Which is the real Alonso?

Just for the record, I think there are plenty of better options than Alonso for that elusive "cleanup hitter", including LoMo, Kendrys, Papi, Votto and even on a (Mark Teahen) salary dump trade Morneau, Dunn or Hafner.  I was just riffing on Northey's Cinci-Jay trade synchronicity.

92-93 - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:14 PM EST (#246923) #
His history of trading suggests the exact opposite. In the Wallace-Gose, League-Morrow, and Marcum-Lawrie swaps he traded the more "proven" commodity for the upside the other guy provided. How can you be so certain what AA thinks of Alonso & Snider?

I will say that I found it telling that Snider wasn't invited to today's festivities. Colby should've been too.
Shaker - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:22 PM EST (#246926) #
AA inherited a bare cupboard.  That cupboard is now full, while the big league team treaded water.  Fairly impressive.

AA's track record of trading style should bare no resemblance to his future trading style, as we now (hopefully) migrate to a contender.

Gerry - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:27 PM EST (#246929) #

It depends what you mean by full.   The Jays have a lot of prospects but as a system they are strongest at the AA level.  The best value you have in a prospect is a player who is major league ready so the acquiring team can slot them onto their roster.   I think the Jays are a half season away from a full cupboard, their AA talent needs to graduate to AAA, or for the pitchers, play a full season at AA.

This might inhibit AA's ability to trade this winter, the Jays may put more value on their AA prospects while other teams might discount them as being still not major league ready. 

Mike Green - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:31 PM EST (#246930) #
Alonso's 2011 major league line tells you very, very little.  The Reds basically platooned him and he killed right-handers (for 85 PAs) and didn't hit lefties.  There is no reason to believe that he will be a complete monster against RHP from his minor league record.  He is probably a noticeably better defensive first baseman than Adam Lind, but there is little reason to believe that the difference on offence would be much. 
Beyonder - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:44 PM EST (#246932) #

I will say that I found it telling that Snider wasn't invited to today's festivities. Colby should've been too.

The franchise invited its centrepieces to this event.  That you are surprised Snider wasn't there should tell you that you see him very differently from management.  You still see his potential.  The rest of us can see it too, but we have to squint a little.

John Northey - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 04:47 PM EST (#246934) #
Well, maybe trade Lind (who technically has shown he can play LF) for Alonso :)

In truth, Alonso might be a dud. AA tends to go for guys who are athletic and able to play everywhere it seems thus Alonso isn't his type of guy. He just seemed like a masher which I'd love to see added here.
bpoz - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 06:39 PM EST (#246944) #
Beyonder, I am guilty of over valuing our own prospects.

It is too late now, but I wonder if Snider could have put up reasonably close numbers to Trout & Lawrie in AA with a full season there before coming to the Majors.

I cannot back it up but I think Snider hurt his wrist or something in the off season and this led him to slap the ball around rather than take hard swings.
uglyone - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 06:54 PM EST (#246946) #
1B Y.Alonso: 25yrs, #7 '08
1B D.Cooper: 25yrs, #17 '08


1B Y.Alonso: 127pa, 7.9bb%, 24.4k%, .299avg (.371babip), .354obp (.055isobp), .479slg (.178isop), .833ops
1B D.Cooper: 81pa, 8.6bb%, 17.3k%, .211avg (.228babip), .284obp (.073isobp), .394slg (.183isop), .678ops


1B Y.Alonso: 854pa, 9.7bb%, 15.9k%, .296avg (.333babip), .364obp (.068isobp), .478slg (.182isop), .842ops
1B D.Cooper: 545pa, 12.3bb%, 7.9k%, .364avg (.380babip), .439obp (.075isobp), .535slg (.171isop), .974ops


1B Y.Alonso: 242pa, 13.6bb%, 12.8k%, .282avg (.308babip), .380obp (.098isobp), .432slg (.150isop), .812ops
1B D.Cooper: 1091pa, 10.2bb%, 15.2k%, .257avg (.282babip), .334obp (.077isobp), .416slg (.159isop), .750ops

bpoz - Friday, November 18 2011 @ 07:17 PM EST (#246950) #
Uglyone, I keep wondering about d Cooper's future. He is getting pretty polished.

Looking at V Martinez & L Overbay's careers, neither came close to 30Hr per year and Cooper looks like the same. Overbay's walks seem impressive & Martinez's Rbi impress me. Cooper could be some kind of mixture of them.

I am most impressed by V Mart's Rbi numbers.
Beyonder - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 01:14 PM EST (#247200) #

From Bowden's Nov. 23 column on ESPN:

"The Reds inquired about Bailey, and the A's responded with interest in Yonder Alonso, which didn’t interest the Reds"

Still think we'd get Alonso for Snider?

92-93 - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 01:31 PM EST (#247201) #
Yes. I'd be livid if the Jays traded Snider for Bailey. Not sure what you're trying to prove.
Beyonder - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 01:38 PM EST (#247202) #

Yes you are.  It's that regardless of the idiosyncratic valuations of Snider's worth on this site, the Reds (rightly or wrongly) ain't trading Alonso for him.  

92-93 - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 01:57 PM EST (#247203) #
There's nothing that suggests that to be the case.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 03:28 PM EST (#247210) #
Apples and oranges with Bailey vs Alonso vs Snider.
  • Bailey is a closer who has yet to get 30 saves who is entering his age 28 season and has had injury issues (sub 50 IP each of the past 2 seasons).
  • Snider is entering his age 24 season with a 93 OPS+ lifetime over 877 PA's and can (sort of) play CF along with LF/RF.
  • Alonso is entering his age 25 season with a lifetime OPS+ of 124 over 127 PA and can really only play 1B.
IMO the order for those 3 should be Alonso/Snider/Bailey in terms of desirability. Unless you think Bailey can be lights out and healthy while you think one of Alonso or Snider will never move past the 110 OPS+ mark in full-time play.
Beyonder - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 03:50 PM EST (#247213) #

There was slight step back last year, but Bailey has been pretty much lights out his entire career.  The only question is whether he can be healthy.  He has realised on more of his potential than Snider and Alonso combined, many times over, and is entering his prime years.  In his three years in the league he has been a two time all star and rookie of the year, has an era just over 2, and (although I know it's frowned upon to even mention this stat) saved 75 games.    

You can rank them however you like based on your view of Snider's ceiling (which I share btw), but in terms of the way the market would rank them, I don't think there's any question that Bailey is a much more sought after commodity than Snider. 

92-93 - Wednesday, November 23 2011 @ 08:24 PM EST (#247228) #
You can keep saying the same thing, but you're basing it on opinion and not fact. The only things we know about Andrew Bailey's trade value are

1. that the Reds think giving up Alonso for Bailey is way too much and

2. that the Rangers offered the same package they paid for Mike Adams (Robbie Erlin + Joe Weiland) plus SS prospect Leury Garcia to the Athletics for Bailey.

From neither of those points can one draw the conclusion that Snider is less valuable than Alonso or Bailey.
Mick Doherty - Thursday, November 24 2011 @ 02:28 AM EST (#247234) #
2. that the Rangers offered the same package they paid for Mike Adams (Robbie Erlin + Joe Weiland) plus SS prospect Leury Garcia to the Athletics for Bailey.

I never heard that down here and would find it marginally difficulut to beleive.
92-93 - Thursday, November 24 2011 @ 09:45 AM EST (#247242) #
"Of course, clubs value players differently; beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The Rangers, according to one source, offered Beane a strong package for closer Andrew Bailey, one believed to include Double-A lefty Robbie Erlin, Double-A righty Joe Weiland and Single-A shortstop Leury Garcia."

Ken Rosenthal,
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