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Honestly, at a visceral level, I never would have thought this argument could be sensibly made. But today on the really fine MLB Dirt blog, Jonathan C. Mitchell posits a pretty convincing case (Historically Underrated: John Olerud) that ex-Jay John Olerud had a better, if not necessarily Hall-worthy career than feared slugger Jim Rice. Here's part of his conclusion:

"This post is not to say that John Olerud belongs in the Hall of Fame or to say Jim Rice does not belong but to point out that the career Olerud had, although slightly better than Hall-of-Famer Jim Rice’s ... is historically underrated for his on-field accomplishments."

Your thoughts, Bauxites?

John Olerud > Jim Rice? | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Thursday, December 29 2011 @ 02:23 PM EST (#249862) #

Rice: 9058 PA, 128 OPS+, 298/352/502
Olerud: 9063 PA, 128 OPS+, 295/398/465

They both played from ages 21 to 36. They logged almost exactly the same number of plate appearances. Their OPS+ is identical.

When Rice wasn't DHing (which was about a quarter of the time), he was playing an uninspired left field. Olerud (who DH'd about a fifth as often as Rice), played a very fine first base, easily giving him the defensive edge.

Players with an OBP-heavy OPS like Olerud's, are almost always valued less in the mainstream than players with an SLG-heavy OPS like Rice's. Typically concomitant with a high SLG are impressive HR and RBI tallies, or what Pat Tabler likes to insightfully refer to as "production". So Rice is "scarier" than Olerud, because his table-clearing skills are more valued than the overtly meek Olerud's table-setting skills. I think one would be hardpressed to find a sabermetrically inclined fan who'd opt for Rice's slash line over Olerud's, given that a point of OBP is more valuable than a point of SLG.

Interestingly, while they played in different run-scoring eras, Rice's disadvantage was offset by the advantage of playing in such a hugely favourable home park. This makes their raw numbers easier to compare because the translation required to normalize them is almost entirely unnecessary.

Mike Green - Thursday, December 29 2011 @ 02:38 PM EST (#249864) #
Plus Rice grounded into double plays much more often.  When you add it up, it isn't close on a career basis, and as for peak, Olerud's 1993 and 1998 were quite a bit better than Rice's best years in the late 70s. 
DiscoDave - Thursday, December 29 2011 @ 03:40 PM EST (#249868) #
Johnny's patience was at times infuriating, but the boy was a dream to watch swing the bat.
hypobole - Thursday, December 29 2011 @ 03:48 PM EST (#249869) #
However, in his entire career, Olerud failed to break one bat on a checked swing.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 29 2011 @ 08:01 PM EST (#249876) #

John Olerud has 2 World (1992, 1993) Series rings (.267/.343/.400 in 30 AB) in all his Postseason play (.278/.366/.435 in 237 AB).   He has a Batting Title (.363 in 1993), 3 Gold Gloves (2000, 2002, 2003) and 2 All Star appearances (1993, 1998).

Jim Rice has little Postseason experence (.225/.313/.366 in 71 AB) other than a World series loss (.333/.455/.444 in 27 AB) in 1986.   He has an MVP Title in 1978 and 8 All Star appearances (1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986).

If Jim Rice is in The Hall, then John Olerud must be there too.

uglyone - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 03:32 AM EST (#249885) #
JonnyO has the career peak numbers, the career total numbers, and the team achievments to fully deserve a hall spot.
ogator - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 11:17 AM EST (#249887) #
Johnny Olerud was a 1B/DH. Jim Rice was a LF/DH. I am not disputing your conclusion but you are not comparing like things. When John Olerud is put forward for HOF consideration, he is compared to 1B men not to outfielders. It is a very important distinction.
Magpie - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 03:09 PM EST (#249896) #
When John Olerud is put forward for HOF consideration, he is compared to 1B men not to outfielders.

Well, I would venture that Olerud probably stands higher in the ranks of All-Time Great first basemen than Rice does in left field. And anyway, you do mean first base or left field - you're not giving Rice the same general credit you'd give a centre fielder, I hope? As it happens, Olerud was a very, very good first baseman. Rice, when he was young, was an adequate left fielder. No question whatsoever who had more defensive value...

But still - arguing about these guys while Fred McGriff remains outside the Hall?
Paul D - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 03:16 PM EST (#249897) #
Magpie, are you saying that McGriff was better than Olerud?
Glevin - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 03:30 PM EST (#249900) #
"JonnyO has the career peak numbers, the career total numbers, and the team achievments to fully deserve a hall spot."

I disagree. He's not a HOFer, but he's still better than Jim Rice. This is the problem with letting all these players in (Rice, Dawson, Sutter) is that you lower the basic standards. There are probably dozens of players better than Rice not in the HOF. Olerud is not in near the top of that list IMO.

To me, the biggest recent voting shame might be the Sandberg/Whitaker difference. Same era, similar value (with Lou probably being a little better overall as well as having better team accomplishments) and Sandberg is in the HOF and Whitaker didn't even get 3% in his first year. I don't know if it's hype, playing in Chicago versus playing in Detroit, player personalities, racism, or what, but that is just baffling.
Chuck - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 03:41 PM EST (#249902) #
Not presuming to answer for Magpie, but adding McGriff to the conversation:

Rice: 9058 PA, 128 OPS+, 298/352/502
Olerud: 9063 PA, 128 OPS+, 295/398/465
McGriff: 10,174 PA, 134 OPS+, 284/377/509

One could argue that while Olerud's offense and defense combined would surpass McGriff's on a per PA basis, their overall values might be very close due to McGriff's extra 11% longevity.

For what it's worth BBRef has Olerud with 57 WAR, McGriff with 51 and RIce with 42. FanGraphs has Olerud and McGriff with 61 each, Rice with 56.
rpriske - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 04:45 PM EST (#249905) #
Olerud was a better player than Rice.

Neither belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Richard S.S. - Friday, December 30 2011 @ 05:24 PM EST (#249909) #

rpriske

Olerud was a better player than Rice.          Neither belongs in the Hall of Fame.   Too bad. Jim Rice was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2009.
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, January 04 2012 @ 10:53 AM EST (#250094) #
The comment was "doesn't belong". Which is different from "is not in".
John Olerud > Jim Rice? | 14 comments | Create New Account
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