Yu Darvish and the Rangers agreed on a six-year, $60 million deal just before today's (Wednesday's) deadline. Story
Jon Daniels cuaght on camer, off the record, saying "I am intimately familiar with our budget and I'd say it's very unlikely."
Poor guy sounds like he's hamstrung by payroll parameters.
Parametric pressure may exist in both places, but the forecast seems a lot sunnier in Texas than Toronto, however.
So, 6 years-$111 million-$121 million. Actually glad the Jays didn't do this.I wouldn't like a 6 year contract for any pitcher and at a minimum of $18.5 million a year, there is very little room for any upside. Yet another talent going to a top team though. Almost all the good teams in baseball are now concentrated in the Easts and the top of the AL West.
Darvish wanted 5 years, it's the Rangers that insisted on 6.
The posting fee was $51.7m.
If Darvish signed a 5 year deal, the annual value of the posting fee would have been $10.3M.
With his six year deal the average value of the fee is $8.6M.
The extra year on the contract reduces the annual value by $1.7M, and makes Darvish a $18.6M per year pitcher instead of a $20.3M per year pitcher. The extra year on the contract does increase the clubs money at risk by $10M.
Sure. Longer amortization period for the posting fee. There are no guarantees in baseball, but if you ask me which of C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle and Yu Darvish is likely to be the best pitcher over the next 4 years, my money is on Darvish. Due to the risk of injury and uncertainty over Darvish's adaptation, the odds are something like Wilson (30%), Buehrle (25%), Darvish (45%). But, if we are talking about upside, the possibility that the pitcher is the best pitcher in the league, Darvish's chances are much better than the other two, in my view.
It's risky, especially given his heavy workload as a young pitcher, but this is an exciting deal for Texas fans. I think the cost is reasonable.
I wouldn't look at him as a 18.6 million per year pitcher.
1. To Yu, he only gets 8.6 per year
2. The way budgeting works is not as simple as dividing over the years. They might have one time money available. It does not go against the salary cap,etc etc.
It is going to be iteresting in the AL West next year. I pick the A's to win :)
The best 'under' bet in baseball this year, and maybe in living memory, is Yu Darvish. He's never faced teams of a AAA level, he's 25 and has never worked on 4 days rest, and he's about to face the best hitters in the world. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Darvish ends up in the minors this year.
If he turns out to do well, then he earns his salary but he's no bargain at all. He's being paid like Lincecum on a multi-year, which is a joke. Easily the stupidest move Toronto could have made this year was 'winning' the Yu Darvish bid. No upside at all at that cost. Lots of downside.
Darvish is the kind of guy that smarter Roto players love because someone is going to bid entirely based upon their fantasies and wildly overprice.
If he turns out to do well, then he earns his salary but he's no bargain at all. He's being paid like Lincecum on a multi-year, which is a joke. Easily the stupidest move Toronto could have made this year was 'winning' the Yu Darvish bid. No upside at all at that cost. Lots of downside.
Darvish is the kind of guy that smarter Roto players love because someone is going to bid entirely based upon their fantasies and wildly overprice.
"I wouldn't look at him as a 18.6 million per year pitcher.
1. To Yu, he only gets 8.6 per year
2. The way budgeting works is not as simple as dividing over the years. They might have one time money available. It does not go against the salary cap,etc etc."
But they are still spending at least $111 million. It's the cost to the team that is the risk, and the total risk averages out to $18.6 million per year over 6 years. AL West will be interesting. Angels and Rangers could be a great rivalry over the next few years. (And you can see why Beane just decided to blow the whole thing up. No chance of competing in the next few years anyway. Might as well start rebuilding again.)
"Due to the risk of injury and uncertainty over Darvish's adaptation, the odds are something like Wilson (30%), Buehrle (25%), Darvish (45%). But, if we are talking about upside, the possibility that the pitcher is the best pitcher in the league, Darvish's chances are much better than the other two, in my view."
I think Wilson is likely to be the best pitcher over the next two, maybe three years. He's been one of the better in baseball over the past couple of years. (7th and 3rd in the AL in ERA+ in his only two years starting). Buehrle's contract to me is the craziest. He's a middle of the rotation kind of guy on a contender with massive downside. (Compared his 117 ERA+ to Wilson's 152.) Also, his back-loaded contract means that he'll be making $37 million the last two years on his contract when he's 35 and 36.
1. To Yu, he only gets 8.6 per year
2. The way budgeting works is not as simple as dividing over the years. They might have one time money available. It does not go against the salary cap,etc etc."
But they are still spending at least $111 million. It's the cost to the team that is the risk, and the total risk averages out to $18.6 million per year over 6 years. AL West will be interesting. Angels and Rangers could be a great rivalry over the next few years. (And you can see why Beane just decided to blow the whole thing up. No chance of competing in the next few years anyway. Might as well start rebuilding again.)
"Due to the risk of injury and uncertainty over Darvish's adaptation, the odds are something like Wilson (30%), Buehrle (25%), Darvish (45%). But, if we are talking about upside, the possibility that the pitcher is the best pitcher in the league, Darvish's chances are much better than the other two, in my view."
I think Wilson is likely to be the best pitcher over the next two, maybe three years. He's been one of the better in baseball over the past couple of years. (7th and 3rd in the AL in ERA+ in his only two years starting). Buehrle's contract to me is the craziest. He's a middle of the rotation kind of guy on a contender with massive downside. (Compared his 117 ERA+ to Wilson's 152.) Also, his back-loaded contract means that he'll be making $37 million the last two years on his contract when he's 35 and 36.
The best 'under' bet in baseball this year, and maybe in living memory, is Yu Darvish. He's never faced teams of a AAA level, he's 25 and has never worked on 4 days rest, and he's about to face the best hitters in the world. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Darvish ends up in the minors this year.
I'll take this bet everyday of the week. He's not the first guy to come over here, we have some idea of how to translate the stats. He will not be in the minor leagues (injury rehab aside) in the next 6 years.
Why is Darvish a worse bet than Dice-K was when he arrived, CBDC? Everything about him that I have read and seen suggests that he is better. He has been a much better pitcher in Japan than Dice-K was. Dice K made 61 starts in his first 2 seasons and had an ERA+ of 126 before he was injured.
If you are saying that Darvish has a greater chance of injury than Buehrle (say), I'll buy that, but the whole business about facing lesser hitters doesn't work for me. He's obviously not going to post an ERA under 2 as he has done consistently in Japan, but the chance that he posts an ERA over 4 (absent injury) is small.
If you are saying that Darvish has a greater chance of injury than Buehrle (say), I'll buy that, but the whole business about facing lesser hitters doesn't work for me. He's obviously not going to post an ERA under 2 as he has done consistently in Japan, but the chance that he posts an ERA over 4 (absent injury) is small.
Mike, I think Matsuzaka may be a good comparable. Two seasons of good pitching before falling off the map would be a terrible return for 100-120 million got Toronto. Which is why I mentioned that he's been a once -a-week pitcher never having thrown on 4 days rest. I didn't say there was no chance that he would be a good pitcher, only that he'd be costing roughly what Hhalladay gets which is the cost of a known great pitcher.
More details about the pursuit of Yu from Evan Grant. Interesting quote:
When the group reconvened to finalize the bid on deadline day, Daniels’ scouts had not been able to ferret out any specific information about potential bid amounts by the Yankees or Toronto, expected to be the two top contenders.
“I told (Simpson and Davis) that I wish I had better intelligence,” Daniels said, “but I didn’t. I told them it could be anywhere from $30 million to $60 million. You are giving your bosses a $30 million range. That’s not really ideal.”