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The Jays affiliates combined for a 2-1 record on the night, while one club got the night off thanks to Mother Nature.


Las Vegas 0 Colorado Springs 0 (Canceled)

The 51 pitching staff managed to avoid allowing 10+ runs in a game... all it took was rain-out.

New Britain 3 New Hampshire 0

Entering the season, it was clear that the Fisher Cats roster was not exactly overflowing with offensive prospects and the club has definitely struggled to score runs. The team managed just three hits on the night. John Tolisano, back from a minor injury, had two hits and a walk at the top of the order. Michael McDade had the other base knock. All three hits were singles. Justin Jackson, the club's hottest hitter, and Brian Jeroloman both got on base via the free pass. On the bump, Drew Hutchison had a solid game by allowing just two runs in 5.2 innings of work. He allowed five hits, one walk and struck out six. Danny Farquhar pitched two innings and struck out four batters. The only base runner he allowed came on a walk.

Dunedin 2 Daytona 1 (12 innings)

Clearly in an effort to make up for the lost game with Las Vegas in AAA, the baby Jays played an extra three innings. Casey Lawrence had yet another solid pitching performance. He went 6.0 innings, allowing seven hits and just one walk. He struck out one batter but induced 10 outs via the ground ball (and just two in the air). The bullpen was outstanding and did not allow a run in six combined innings of work. Scott Gracey and Shawn Griffith, just activated to the roster, each pitched at least two innings. Boomer Potts continues to throw well after missing all of 2011 after having surgery. At the plate, Jake Marisnick and Marcus Knecht each had two hits. Marisnick also walked twice and stole a base, while Knecht walked once and drove in both runs for Dunedin. The underrated Kevin Nolan was 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base.

Lansing 5 West Michigan 4

Starter Jesse Hernandez was not as sharp as he was in his first game but he still kept the club in the game with 6.0 innings of three-run ball. He allowed eight hits but did not walk a batter - or strike out anyone. He induced nine ground-ball outs. Blake McFarland worked the final three innings and gave up just one run (although it led to a blown save for the right-hander). He ended up recording the win. Infielder Jonathon Berti paced the offense with three hits and the top of the order and he also drove in two runs. Every other hitter, save for Kenny Wilson, had one hit. Markus Brisker went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk at the bottom of the order, while also scoring two runs and stealing his eighth base in nine games (He has yet to be caught). Carlos Perez drove in two runs but also made a throwing error on a pick-off attempt.

Three Stars:
3. John Tolisano, two hits and a walk
2. Jonathon Berti, three hits, two RBI
1. The Dunedin bullpen, six scoreless innings


The Bullpen Comes up Big for Dunedin | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Kelekin - Monday, April 16 2012 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#254597) #
Tonight was one heck of a show in Lansing (with Archie Bradley pitching and dominating for the opposing team).

Syndergaard 3 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 6 K (4:0 GO:FO)
Desclafani 3 IP 2 H 0 ER 0 BB 3 K (5:0 GO:FO)
Avendano 2 IP 0 H 0 ER 0 BB 6 K (Will be quite an interesting Rule 5 pick to watch)

And in Dunedin:

Knecht 3/4, 1 R, 2 Doubles, 1 RBI

Ryan Day - Monday, April 16 2012 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#254598) #
Syndergaard for fifth starter!

Kidding, of course. But he looks like he'll be ticketed for Dunedin as soon as he can make it to 6-7 innings a start. The mere mortals of the Midwest can't handle him.
Lugnut Fan - Monday, April 16 2012 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#254602) #
I don't know that any of the young Lansing arms are going to make it to 6 or 7 at any point this season Ryan. The piggyback rotation isn't going away anytime soon. I think Nicholino will be the first of the youth movement to leave but they are being extremely cautious and maybe overly cautious with all of these guys.
Sano - Monday, April 16 2012 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#254603) #
Is Desclafani (sp?) starting to emerge as a prospect as well now?
TamRa - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 03:50 AM EDT (#254608) #
I think once they get to the point where they need the young guys to go to 5 IP or more - which I'm pretty sure WILL happen at some point in the season - then you will see some guys start to move up to make that happen.

Injuries will begin to create openings and possibly attrition in some of the more fringy guys (who, at the moment, are pitching too well to just be casually kicked to the curb - thinking of Tepera, Lawrence and Smith mostly)

But i assume none of that movement will happen until McGowan (assuming he has no setbacks) moves through the rehab process. So mid-May at least, quite possibly late May/early June which seems to me an appropriate schedule in terms of building them up and keeping plenty in the tank for potential post-season work.
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 06:05 AM EDT (#254609) #
You are right Tamra, it's going to happen at some point, but I think they are still a couple weeks away from that happening. There is seemingly no time table set on that at this time. The pitchers get to throw three innings or hit a pitch count that appears to be around fifty from what I have seen so far.
hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#254613) #
What a difference between college and pros. Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez are on 50 pitch counts. Mark Appel, in the mix for pick 1-1 in this years draft and only 5 months older than Nicolino, threw 149 pitches for Stanford on Friday.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#254615) #
You definitely can see a difference between the Jays and the collegiate system in development of 18-21 year old pitchers.  Pitch counts are one thing.  The other is the Jays' greater emphasis on (or preference for) developing the change as the first off-speed pitch.

Travis Snider has obviously taken his return to Las Vegas as a challenge rather than an insult- 45 PAs, 8 extra base hits, 4 walks and 6 strikeouts.  He is basically hitting there in the same way as he did in 2009; if he keeps this up, he will force the organization to think about roles for Thames, Encarnacion and Lind. 

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#254618) #
Not too much thinking - Thames has been almost as cold as Snider has been hot. If one of them doesn't change course, we'll probably see them trade places within a month.

On the other hand, I wonder what the tolerance is for Lind, who already appears to be in a platoon.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#254619) #
Nah. Thames has been doing what you really worry about with him.  He has been controlling the strike zone well.  The power will return.  I think that he's a better hitter than Lind right now. 

There is room for both Snider and Thames in the starting lineup, if Snider shows that he is ready.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#254621) #
The Jays arms are working on 4 days rest, whereas Appel and college arms are working on 6-7 days rest. And there's no evidence that higher pitch counts are bad for an arm. The more we baby these arms, the more injuries we're seeing.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#254623) #
It seems Snider is following the Lawrie path - IE: take a demotion you didn't feel you deserved and use it as incentive to out-perform in the minors and force the situation. A very, very good sign as I hate seeing prospects go back to AAA and flop around in a funk for months.
sam - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#254624) #
92-93, have we seen injuries though? I can't think of the last pitching prospect the Jays have had that needed major arm surgery. I guess Dustin Antolin and Alan Farina, but both of those guys were relievers. (knock on wood) But then you look at Dyson, Stilson, both college pitchers would pitched extensively in college, some might say too much, and they've both had serious arm injuries?

A lot of these kids are still growing and developing and there's really no point in having a nineteen or twenty year old throw 100 plus innings.

The lower pitch counts and innings per start are also a psychological and mechanical thing too. The pitchers are aware that they will be pitching for a set time and the idea is to really make each pitch count.

Because the Lugnuts just played the Diamondbacks affiliate, take a look at how they're approaching the development of Archie Bradley. A top prospect no doubt. But they've sent him right away to the Midwest league and he'll probably pitch 120+ innings at that level and maybe higher. The last big-time high school arm they had was Jarrod Parker who they did the same with and by the time he was 20 he had thrown over 200 professional innings and needed TJ surgery.

I think the point here, is the prospect dictates the innings total. Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Nicolino were all considered underdeveloped both mechanically and physically coming out of high school. They've all seemed to be putting on weight and developing increased velocity. There's no point to suddenly burden their arms with significant inning totals just when they're now realizing their potential.

On the flip side, look at what the Jays are doing with Jenkins, MacGuire, Dyson, and Stilson. They've all pretty much peaked physically and they're pitching more innings.

So I don't know what's to gripe about here. Those Lansing guys are two-three years at the very least away from the Big Leagues and that's plenty of time to safely get a 150 inning season in.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#254626) #
If you took my comment as griping about how the Jays are handling their arms you completely misinterpreted what I said.

The Lansing arms are throwing the same # of innings that they would've had they gone to college, like the foursome you mentioned.

My point was that not all pitch counts are created equally; that's it wrong to assume that a higher pitch count is putting more stress on an arm than a lower one.
hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#254627) #
And there's no evidence that higher pitch counts are bad for an arm.The more we baby these arms, the more injuries we're seeing.

And where is your evidence?
Gerry - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#254628) #

The more we baby these arms, the more injuries we're seeing.

I was under the impression that one of the reasons for the lower offensive output in the major leagues was the excellent infusion of young pitchers.  And that excellent infusion was due, in part, to greater care taken with their arms when they were in the minor leagues.  I have absolutely no evidence to back up this impression.

The people with the most to win or lose in this issue are the teams who pay out big dollars for these players.  They are deciding to be cautious with innings pitched and I assume that is because the best advice that they can get is telling them to take it slowly with young pitchers.  If the evidence is contrary to that then why would they do it?  The quicker these guys get to the big leagues the better for the GM.

Going back to the quote at the top, the follow-up is that teams are misguided or misinformed.

92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#254629) #
Numerous articles have been written about the increase of injuries across MLB. Here's one example : Major League Baseball injuries increasing
hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#254630) #
"Twenty years ago, nearly 90 percent of all GMs had played in the major leagues. Now there are three out of 30: Philadelphia's Ruben Amaro Jr., the White Sox's Kenny Williams and Billy Beane of the A's. This decade has brought a new breed of GM, one who is highly educated, can run a spreadsheet and has mountains of data to support his theories.
"We have a new wave of general managers who are deeply into mathematics, analysis, metrics -- I'm not saying it's wrong -- because that's what they charted in the minor leagues," said Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey. "I don't know the numbers, but the new wave of GMs are the ones who have charted that the chance of injury is, say, greater at 85 pitches than it is at 75. And with every five-pitch increment, there's a 22.8 percent more likely chance that someone gets hurt. With each 10 extra pitches, it goes up by five percent."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=4359938

Maybe Anthopoulos knows a lot more on this subject than you or I?
92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#254631) #
I try and stay away from evaluating league wide offense trends - I think we attribute way too much of it to things like steroids and improved pitching when in reality it could be something as simple Selig changing the stitching on the ball.

"They are deciding to be cautious with innings pitched and I assume that is because the best advice that they can get is telling them to take it slowly with young pitchers. If the evidence is contrary to that then why would they do it?"

Because no one wants to step forward and be different - that's when your job is on the line. If Straburg needs TJ and you babied him, well, you did everything you could and what standard MLB protocol is so you're in the clear. If Straburg needs TJ and you were treating him like a seasoned veteran, heads would've rolled.

Upper management doing something is not evidence it's correct. I could use the same language Gerry just used to propose that managers are right with holding back their closers on the road until the 16th inning for a save opportunity, or with being rigid in their defined bullpen roles. Many around here think they're not.
92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#254632) #
They needed to chart the numbers to know that a pitcher is more likely to be tired at 85 pitches than 75, thus increasing the risk of injury? Sheesh.
Paul D - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#254633) #
The fact that major league injuries are on the rise doesn't mean that protecting minor leaguers leads to more pitcher injuries.
Beyonder - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#254634) #

"And there's no evidence that higher pitch counts are bad for an arm. The more we baby these arms, the more injuries we're seeing."  I don't see how this has been misinterpreted.   You are suggesting that Syndergaard et al. are being babied by the coaching staff through low pitch counts, creating a greater risk of injury.  If you had a different thought, you haven't expressed it. 

Anyway, there is lots of literature about pitch counts and injury, but most of it (like the link you circulated) pertains to fully-developed major league players.  It does not apply in the case of 19-20 year olds who are still growing into their bodies. 

"Because no one wants to step forward and be different"  I don't think it's fair to say that is a failing of this administration.  They routinely employ strategies that other teams have missed or overlooked, both in the draft and in their acquisitions.  They are not risk averse so long as the risk is worth taking.  If they thought there was an advantage to higher pitch counts that wasn't outweighed by the risk of injury they would employ them.

Dr B - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#254635) #
Exactly, Paul D., and in fact there's nothing in the article quoted to suggest there's any correlation between babying arms and major league injury (let alone causality).

However, 92-93's speculation or causaility could have a plausible explanation. If you baby your pitcher's arms, they are more likely to reach the majors in the first place. Those who's arms are prone to blowing out, no longer blow out in the minors and are added to the major league casualty statistics. I actually think the suggestions proposed in the article are more likely, but we don't know without more complete statistics.





92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#254636) #
Beyonder, would it have helped if I put a paragraph break in between the two sentences?

Point 1: The Jays arms are working on 4 days rest, whereas Appel and college arms are working on 6-7 days rest. (So don't glean too much from their respective pitch counts.)

Point 2: And there's no evidence that higher pitch counts are bad for an arm. The more we baby these arms, the more injuries we're seeing.

I certainly was not suggesting that the Jays are CREATING a greater risk of injury by limiting Syndergaard's innings early on. I was commenting that despite all the efforts in preserving young arms for the last 10 years, injuries are on the rise.

I have no problem with the way the Jays are handling the Lansing pitchers. The plan Gerry laid out makes a ton of sense. What I do have a problem with is suggestions that certain innings totals/pitch counts are dangerous for an arm. People treat these situations like they are straight-forward and cut and dry, whereas I'd advocate a very fluid situation where you react to each athlete's individual needs.
Gerry - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#254638) #

The report cited by 92-93 relates to all players in baseball.  In this case we are talking about injuries for teenage and early twenty pitchers.

Here is one study from Athletic Training and Sports Healthcare with an excerpt from the study of High School pitchers:

Olsen et al found associations with surgical-related injury and pitching more months per year, more innings per game, more pitches per game, more pitches per year, and more warm-up pitches per game in adolescent pitchers

And another story from the NY Times:

One aspect of the curveball debate, and the studies it has spawned, that everyone agrees on is that throwing too many pitches of any type is the biggest danger.  As surprised as Mihalik might have been about her study’s findings on curveballs, what alarmed her most was the number of pitches thrown.   “So many were playing for three teams at once,” she said. “And the data was extremely clear that overuse led to injury more than any other factor.”   That, too, is consistent with the findings of more than 15 years of research at the American Sports Medicine Institute, and similar studies around the country.

Most evidence suggests that overuse is bad for pitchers.  92-93 states that this does not apply to all pitchers, the Jays should develop individual pitching plans.  None of these studies have identified which pitchers get injured and which don't.  In the old days some pitchers would get injured and retire and some of the survivors would get to play in the major leagues. 

The answer at some point in the future is probably genetic to a large degree.  Until teams can come up with a method of differentiating between injury-prone and injury-free pitchers they will likely err on the side of caution.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#254641) #
With the increasing prevalence (and success) of arm surgery as a way of treating arm injuries, DL time is not the best marker of incidence of injury over time.  I would look at cohorts of pitchers age 23-27and a minimum of 350 innings pitched in the previous 2 seasons (with at least average range of performance ERA+ over 95), and see how many innings they pitched over the following two years.  You could use 1959, 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999 and 2009 as your base years. Jim Bunning and Tom Brewer would have been such pitchers in 1959; Dave McNally and Tom Phoebus  in 1969; Dennis Martinez and Mike Flanagan in 1979; Saberhagen and Gubicza in 1989; Pettitte and Pedro in 1999; Lester and Shields in 2009. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#254642) #
And what Gerry said.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#254643) #
One big element that is missing is the ability to measure how well the pitcher is doing at keeping their arm slot consistent. IE: when they throw a fastball in the 1st inning that they throw it the same way in the 9th. I've read/heard that it makes a major difference in injury risk and logically it makes sense. The challenge is how to measure that a guy is slightly off and moving away from the right slot for each type of pitch. With the various pitch fx and fielding fx and hitting fx machines out there now (only the ones measuring pitch location are public with results afaik) one has to figure the smarter organizations would invest in one for pitchers arm motion.

Imagine being able to measure it within fractions of an inch instantly. Suddenly the team knows that their pitcher on the mound is losing it early or holding onto it late so they either pull early or pull late depending. So if a pitcher is a freak (ala Nolan Ryan) who can go up to 200 pitches (which he did often in the 1970's) without going out of slot then you could (potentially) let him do so while others who lose it at 80 pitches would be identified and pulled out accordingly (maybe changed to relievers earlier in their careers). Might help identify if a reliever is really ready in the pen too if you put the machine there (ie: his arm is going all over the place so don't bring him in, get someone else ready instead).
Beyonder - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#254645) #

This has nothing to do with pitch counts, but here is a link to a piece from ESPN on the use of biomechanical analysis to identify and eliminate injury risk.  It singles our Stephen Strasburg as having a particularly unsound delivery. 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7712916/tommy-john-surgery-keeps-pitchers-game-address-underlying-biomechanical-flaw-espn-magazine

 

 

 

92-93 - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#254647) #

"Most evidence suggests that overuse is bad for pitchers.  92-93 states that this does not apply to all pitchers." (emphasis is mine)

And this will be my last comment on this matter, because it's clear no matter what I say it will now be twisted and turned to make your own point. I said nothing of the sort.

Overuse is certainly bad for pitchers. All pitchers. Where that boundary resides is a mystery to everyone involved. It's quite possible that Appel wasn't being overused in his start of 149 pitches. It's quite possible that Wojciechowski's arm was abused at The Citadel (he had numerous pitch counts in the 130-150 range) and led to an injury, but it's also possible that his mechanics were going to lead to an injury no matter what limits you placed on his arm.

Ricky Romero, FWIW, made 22 starts as a 19 year old sophomore, totalling 155 IP, and then even more in his draft year. And yes, I realize some of you will point to his 2007 arm problems and say they were a result of his college workload.

hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2012 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#254651) #
It's one thing for us to argue a managers decision, and yeah, sometimes they haven't thought it out well, but at the end of the day, that decision might cost a run or even cost a game.

However, that's not the case with young pitchers arms. The Jays have multi-millions of dollars invested in these kids. Should we really think they haven't researched this as thoroughly as possible and have available myriads of statistics, studies and other info on which to base on their approach? Do you really believe they would be using some misguided gut feeling or simplistic assumptions on how best to develop their young pitchers arms ?
92-93 - Wednesday, April 18 2012 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#254677) #
Well, one last word. I recommend ESPN's Baseball Today from yesterday. Keith Law talks a bit about this very subject.
Jonny German - Wednesday, April 18 2012 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#254681) #
I can't believe that 92-93 would state that Keith Law is an authority on pitch counts!
bpoz - Wednesday, April 18 2012 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#254684) #
IMO there are risks that should not be taken with pitchers.

Billy Martin may have over used his Oakland Starters. They ended up getting injuries. Brad Arnsberg also had a fair number of pitchers get injuries.

D Gooden & B Saberhagen pitched in the Majors at very young ages. They had good careers, but that risk probably should not have been taken.
David Wells had injuries as a Jay's prospect and had a long career. Cris Carpenter is another who survived injuries in his 20's.
I just keep my fingers crossed, I cannot figure any of this out.
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