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A quick two game set in Oakland, and it should be a good one, featuring each organization's top two pitchers (except now Brandon McCarthy is injured and my clever thematic theme is undid). And it's in O.co/Network Associates/McAfee/Overstock.com Coliseum, so we may not see many runs. Pitchin' and defense in the golden state, and I'll be rockin' my Advance Scout all the way to the golden gate.


Tuesday: Ricky Romero vs. Jarrod Parker

Jarrod Parker was the centrepiece of the Trevor Cahill trade, netting Oakland the 23 year-old top prospect plus Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook (they also gave up Craig Breslow). Parker has been nothing short of scintillating in his two big league starts (plus one last season), allowing a run apiece in each while striking out 9 and walking 3 in 13, against the White Sox and at Fenway. To achieve these results Parker has been relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, which he runs between 91 and 95, averaging about 92 MPH so far. He also throws a slider and a change-up that both come in around 82. He does apparently throw a curveball, although according to Brook's PitchFX he's thrown one so far, in his first start. Parker's had a bit of a varied path to the bigs - he was a position player until his freshman year of high school, and he underwent TJ surgery in 2009. His older brother was also drafted by the Diamondbacks in the 6th round, but has since retired from baseball. Parker was originally supposed to start Wednesday's game, with Brandon McCarthy going tonight; the A's didn't announce the reason for the fliperoo.

Wednesday: Brandon Morrow vs. Tyson Ross

Well the reason for the switch between Parker and McCarthy is becoming evident, as McCarthy has been scratched tommorrow basically while I was writing this. Tyson Ross, a big righty from Berkeley, will take his place. Berkeley is right next to San Francisco, and living at home can be such a drag, what with Mom's and all. Ross was drafted in the second round of the 2008 draft, and before 2010 the 6th rated prospect in Oakland's system. Ross' performance so far is somewhat in line with his relatively modest plaudits - he was effective in 2011 as a swing guy, starting six games while getting into three as a reliever. He posted a 3.14 FIP and was effective in keeping the ball on the ground. In 2012 Ross's FIP has also been good, at a tick under 4. His era of 8.55, not so much. His first two starts went well, but he's since been roughed up to the tune of 9 and 7 runs against Baltimore and Tampa. Like Parker, Ross works fastball-slider-change up, relying heavily on the fastball, which sits around 92 on average. Also like Parker he doesn't get much differential on his slider and change up, both are around 86, though his slider is the better of the two - in fact, he's barely thrown his change up so far this year.

Lineup (Tuesday's anyway)


Jemile Weeks 2B
Cliff Pennington SS
Josh Reddick RF
Yoenis Cespedes CF
Johnny Gomes DH
Brandon Inge 3B
Kurt Suzuki C
Daric Barton 1B
Michael Taylor LF



Erstwhile Jay Michael Taylor was essentially an emergency call up for Coco Crisp who was expected to go right back down to AAA when Crisp return. Coco's got an ear infection and is on the DL though, so Taylor remains... Brandon Inge is an A now, with the Tigers on the hook for the majority of his contract. Inge was released because he isn't very good at hitting baseball's anymore (not that he was ever any great shakes). He's hitting 6th for Oakland, which goes a way to explain why Oakland is not good at scoring runs...Manny Ramirez's steroid suspension ends on May 30th, which is incidentally his 40th birthday. The A's have a glut of outfielders, so I'm not sure how much Ramirez will help them. Evidently he's not willing to hang them up until he's got more hits than Sadaharu Oh... ESPN has a feature on Yoenis Cespedes, in his first season in the U.S... Only Minnesota stands between the A's and the fewest runs scored in the AL - the A's have two more but with an extra game. They've scored 41 fewer runs than the Jays, for example. Johnny Gomes is the only A with a wOBA above .340. They're doing it like this, they're doing it like that, but there basically doing it with a whiffleball bat... Jemile Weeks has been out a couple games with groin tightness but is leading off tonight... Billy Beane is still inspiring people to get down with the computer action.

The Sounds of Science: RIP MCA.

Said, doc what's the condition: Brett Anderson (SP) is recovering from TJ surgery, he's possibly back in August. Dallas Braden (SP) is also on the 60-day DL with a strained shoulder, he might be back in July. Joey Devine (RP) is also on the TJ, he's out for the year. Coco Crisp (OF) has an ear infection and is on the DL as of last week, he'll hopefully be back before long. Scott Sizemore (2B) has a torn ACL and is done for the year.  Brandon McCarthy is either day-to-day or to the DL with shoulder tightness, depending on what you read.

Chart: Fangraphs for data, thanks guys.



Advance Scout: A's, May 8-9 | 72 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
James W - Tuesday, May 08 2012 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#256015) #
The theme was still quite evident.  I probably only got half the references.  Kudos, Anders!
Jimbag - Tuesday, May 08 2012 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#256016) #
At this point Lind is lucky he isn't being charged with an error every time he finds himself at the plate.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 08 2012 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#256017) #
All the Jays players who aren't free agents after this season (except Lawrie) have horrid offensive numbers so far. It's early, but this does not seem to be a good sign.
Nolan - Tuesday, May 08 2012 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#256021) #
To my eyes, it seems like the Jays have been really unlucky so far in this game. There have been 5 or 6 hard hit drives by the Jays that have been right at fielders; with normal luck I think we have four more hits, some for extra bases.
sam - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#256024) #
Got to love Arencibia's mini hissy fit after being pinch hit there.

I know Farrell's in-game decision making has been (rightly) questioned this year. I've been a fan of what he's done recently. The managing of the bullpen has been better and the late game hitting decisions. He seems to be more willing to micro-manage the late game bullpen a bit more recently.
Mike D - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#256025) #
Cordero is an automatic blown save right now. It is well beyond reasonable to pitch him in any high-leverage situation. He can't even pitch a clean low-leverage inning.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#256026) #
They can't use him as a closer again can they?? He's AWFUL.
dan gordon - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#256027) #
Well, if you're going to blow one, might as well go big.  5 runs in 1/3 of an inning.  This team is going nowhere if they can't stop blowing leads.
fozzy - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#256028) #
I have no problem with Cordero staying in Oakland after tomorrow's game. If he wants to pitch for another team, all the better for the Jays. Absolutely brutal. Nothing but 87 mph junk in the dirt. 1 clean appearance so far this year?
Mike D - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#256029) #
Never mind clean. He's only had four scoreless innings out of 12.
Mike D - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#256030) #
I know he was brought in as a LOOGY, but I'd like to see Darren Oliver in the interim role. He's at least pitched with excellent control.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#256031) #
Batting Lind cleanup night after night and repeatedly using Cordero in save situations...brutal. Coco seems to have little left - all he can do is try to throw his 86-87 MPH fastball on the outer half and hope for the best. But I guess he's a "proven closer"...sigh.

That was a difficult game to watch. The Jays seem to lose an awful lot of games they probably should have won.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#256032) #
I walked away from the TV as soon as Cordero came into the game. Is Farrell actually trying to win ballgames? .Is there one person besides Farrell who believes Lind should continue holding down the 4 spot in the order? Maybe tonights game will be a wakeup call for Farrell.  Sadly, I doubt it.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:46 AM EDT (#256033) #
Y'all have heard me whine about this before, but here goes - I think it's ridiculous to remove relievers that have thrown scoreless innings using 8 and 13 pitches. John Farrell shouldn't be surprised that "the three outs in the ninth are pretty tough for us right now"; that's what happens when you're a slave to these rigid rules on how to run a bullpen.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#256034) #
No!!! sleep!!! 'til Fremont!!! Yeah!!!!!!

That was pretty disappointing.
smcs - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#256035) #
I'm not one for post-game irrationality, but Francisco Cordero should be released and a copy of his contract should be burned at home plate before tomorrow's game, while the real one will be burned in the bullpen before the 9th inning of the Jays next home game. He threw 8 strikes in 21 pitches. 2 were fouled off, 1 was sac bunted, 1 was a swinging strike, 1 was a called strike and the other 3 were a double, a single and a home run. I really enjoyed the 9 straight balls that led up to the grand slam. That was a real nice touch. I mean, I don't know about you people, but I just wanted him to throw something over the plate at that point.
markham_jay - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#256036) #
Farrel must be out of his mind.  Surely some blame must fall on him.

I'm sick of ragging on Lind and the Anointed Closer of the month -- if the guys can't perform and the manager keeps pushing them out there then maybe the manager is the problem. 

I wonder if the Red Sox sticking with David Ortiz during his 2009 slump had any bearing on his decision to keep showing faith in his own players... and if so how the heck do one confuse Ortiz with Lind???

King Ryan - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 02:36 AM EDT (#256038) #
This really is something else. Not since Kerry Ligtenberg has seeing a pitcher warm up in the pen caused me to shake with rage. With every player save EE and Johnson hitting like utter crap and the worst bullpen in recent memory, I have no idea how this team is anywhere near .500.

Ahhh!
katman - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#256039) #
Gameday consistently has Cordero's fastball at 93 or so, sliders around 87-89. So saying that he's just throwing 87 mph junk is wrong. But I've no argument with the fact that he's a huge problem, with a 1.91 WHIP BEFORE this disaster.

I don't know why he's getting his bell rung so bad - maybe a Bauxite can show a pitch location distribution and clarify? But he is. Agree that using him in late inning situations is insanity at this point.

Ditto batting Lind in the cleanup spot. 100 AB is approaching fast, and if the manager won't step in after that, the GM should. I'd rather have Cooper batting 8th, even knowing he's Overbay Lite, than Lind batting 4th. I'd prefer to see EE at 1st, Thames as DH, and Travis in LF... but Snider has to heal and get rehab at-bats first.
Original Ryan - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#256041) #
But, but... relievers pitch better with defined roles and Cordero is a proven closer! I don't know how this could possibly have happened.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#256042) #
I left the game after Kelly Johnson's go-ahead single, thinking that maybe Escobar would reach base and Bautista would hit a grand slam so that it would not be a "Cordero situation".  I slept well, as ignorance is bliss.
To all those who were watching, I am so sorry.

I don't think Cordero is as bad as he currently appears, but I also don't think that he is likely to be as effective in the "closer" role as three or four pitchers in lower leverage roles.

greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#256044) #
When the camera showed Cordero warming in the ninth during the Jays rally, I thought, I wonder how much of a lead in this game would make me feel secure with Coco coming in. I actually thought, "maybe 8-2?" I kid you not.
John Northey - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#256045) #
Checked b-r ...
Cordero: 2.3 WHIP 3.2 hr/9
Yikes!

Now, I'm sure he isn't going to be that bad all year but he clearly is the 7th best out of 7 reliever here right now and probably worse than many in AAA.

Between him and Lind the management has a lot to explain. Both have hit the point where bench time is required.
fozzy - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#256046) #
Gameday consistently has Cordero's fastball at 93 or so, sliders around 87-89. So saying that he's just throwing 87 mph junk is wrong.

Unfortunately, according to GameDay, out of 21 pitches he only threw 4 fastballs, 3 of which were 92 or so. 2 of those were balls, and one was a run scoring hit; the other was the sac bunt. Everything else was 87mph junk. Or 83 mph junk.

Six straight sliders to Michael Taylor!
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#256047) #
The only consolation I can think of is that the Jays were unsuccessful in their supposed bid for Heath Bell (ERA+ 35, ERA 11.42, 10.4 BB/9 IP, signed to a 3/$27M contract).
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#256051) #
At this point I would DL Cordero with a fake injury (or just release him altogether, though I doubt the Jays do that), bring up another guy from the minors eg Chad Beck, and then go with a closer by committee till Santos returns.  Oh, and drop Lind way down in the lineup.  Zzzzzzzzzzz
sam - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#256053) #
On DL: in watching Lind at first base these past couple games, I think it's more than clear that something is wrong with his back. He can't really move and he's not bending with his knees much to make plays. I think a trip to the DL to "rest" his back would probably be in the interests of both player and club at the moment.
Paul D - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#256055) #
It's time to try to get Youkilis from the Sox to play first.
King Ryan - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#256056) #
Ditto batting Lind in the cleanup spot. 100 AB is approaching fast, and if the manager won't step in after that, the GM should.
By citing 100 AB you are understating this case. Adam Lind is now hitting .239/.290/.421 over his last 1,264 PA. That is one THOUSAND two hundred and sixty-four plate appearances where he's hit like Jeff Francoeur. As a 1B/DH I'm not even convinced he belongs in the majors at this point.
smcs - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#256060) #
I don't know why he's getting his bell rung so bad - maybe a Bauxite can show a pitch location distribution and clarify?

Long story short, his slider isn't moving as much as it has in the past, his fastball is 93 instead of 95, and he is leaving everything in the zone up and over the middle of the plate instead of down and away, which is what he is trying to do. The pitch he threw to Inge is being classified as a slider, but it was nearly as straight as an arrow.

Overall, he's gone from someone who gets a lot of swinging strikes to someone who doesn't. He doesn't throw his slider to lefties, just like he doesn't throw his change-up to righties, but he is still terrified of throwing inside on anybody.

Most of these changes can, I think, be attributed to age, and even Cordero recognizes some of this, because he was strictly a fastball-slider pitcher until last year when he started throwing the change-up. I think his way forward is to make sure he gets that first pitch strike and then throw fastballs inside more often than "never." Realistically, this would require Cordero to develop from a flamethrower into someone with much better command. If he had the command to begin with, he would be a starter, not a proven closer.
robertdudek - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#256061) #
Unfortunately, according to GameDay, out of 21 pitches he only threw 4 fastballs, 3 of which were 92 or so. 2 of those were balls, and one was a run scoring hit; the other was the sac bunt. Everything else was 87mph junk. Or 83 mph junk.

Pitch calling courtesy of Jeff Mathis. Hell of a defensive inning he put up there!
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#256062) #
So we're well into May now and our manager seems dedicated to keeping our worst hitter in the cleanup spot, and our worst reliever as our closer. And it seems like the worse they do, the more dedicated he beceoms to keeping them in those roles without question.

Who knew that we could replace Cito Gaston with a manager who's even MORE stubborn in keeping his vets in "roles"? I don't think anyone expected that....or even thought it was possible.

At least when Cito kept Hill/Lind in the meat of the order for the first couple of months of 2010 he had the excuse of them being fresh off of Silver Slugger seasons.....but Farrell is being just as stubborn with Lind even though he hasn't hit for 3 years now. It's really pretty crazy, and inexplicable.

Sticking Cordero in the closer role is more understandable, but the manager has to be aware that despite his save totals from last year, his precipitous drop in strikeouts last year was a warning sign, and that he can't just be trusted with a key role this year without earning it. To let him continually get the closing role when he hasn't had a clean inning all season so far is really...well...dumb. We have plenty of good relievers, no reason to show "faith" in cordero as the "closer".....especially when even in the best case scenario he's just the interim closer anyways. Why show so much faith in a guy in that kind of role when he's just an injury fill-in anyways? And why show so much faith that you don't dare yank him for another reliever even when he gives up a double, single, 2 walks, and the only out he's recorded is a sac bunt?

I like plenty of what Farrell has done this year, but IMO he really is sabotaging our season by putting our worst hitter as our permanent cleanup hitter and our worst reliever as our closer.

And I don't even want to comment on him pinch-hitting for the hot-hitting Arencibia (1.221ops in May, .901ops over his last 15gms) with one of the worst hitters in MLB. That is just insanity. Very lucky that KJ bailed him out, but he probably cost us insurance runs by giving them a free out in Vizquel.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#256067) #
... but IMO he really is sabotaging our season by putting our worst hitter as our permanent cleanup hitter..

I'm not sure that's true, given the limited options. Only Johnson & Encarnacion are having strong offensive seasons, with Lawrie and Thames being kinda okay. I don't know how much you could improve by shuffling the order when Lind, Escobar, Bautista, Rasmus, and Arencibia have all been so awful.

In theory, you might go Lawrie-Johnson-Encarnacion-Thames, but then you still have a half-lineup of suck after that.

Farrell might not be making the best choices, but Bautista hitting 187 is a far greater act of sabotage than anything the manager could do.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#256071) #
I agree, but I would at least ensure that the best hitters get the most ABs. This isn't perfect, but maybe something like:

KJ
Escobar
Bautista
EE
Thames
Lawrie
Lind
Arencibia
Rasmus
John Northey - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#256076) #
As Bill James said many decades ago - it isn't the lineup order but who is in that lineup that matters most.

Lind clearly does not belong in an everyday role - a platoon is the best option (with Francisco) for now with a potential release/call up Cooper or Snider or Sierra or whoever.

Pinch hitting with Mathis or Vizquel should be grounds for immediate dismissal unless an injury occurred or a blowout is occurring.

Putting Cordero in anything resembling a close game at this point is giving up. He needs to be moved to low stress innings until he starts to a) find the strike zone and b) stops giving up home runs every 3rd inning. Frasor (wild but no HR), Oliver, Perez or Janssen (despite his HR issues, he at least doesn't walk people) should be used instead. In Vegas you have Ryota Igarashi and Jesse Chavez pitching extremely well so bring up one of them for the pen if needed.

As I say, who plays (and when for PH or relievers) is most important. Get those choices right and then worry about more minor things like batting order and the like.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#256078) #
I don't think there's much argument that Lind is the worst hitter in our lineup. He's been one of the worst in each of the last 3 seasons, and the only guy he's been able to outhit over the last 3 seasons is our catcher in the first 600pa of his career....and he's barely been able to outhit him.

2010

1) RF Bautista: 683pa, .995ops, .422woba, 166wRC+
2) CF Rasmus: 534pa, .859ops, .366woba, 129wRC+
3) 2B Johnson: 671pa, .864ops, .377woba, 128wRC+
4) DH En'cion: 367pa, .787ops, .339woba, 110wRC+
5) 1B A.Lind: 613pa, .712ops, .309woba, 89wRC+
6) SS Escobar: 567pa, .655ops, .301woba, 84wRC+
7) C Arencibia: 37pa, .532ops, .232woba, 36wRC+
3B Lawrie: ----
LF Thames: ----

2011

1) RF Bautista: 655pa, 1.055ops, .441woba, 181wRC+
2) 3B Lawrie: 171pa, .953ops, .414woba, 163wRC+
3) SS Escobar: 590pa, .782ops, .345woba, 116wRC+
4) DH En'cion: 530pa, .787ops, .344woba, 115wRC+
5) LF Thames: 394pa, .769ops, .333woba, 108wRC+
6) 1B A.Lind: 542pa, .724ops, .315woba, 95wRC+
7) 2B Johnson: 613pa, .717ops, .316woba, 93wRC+
8) C Arencibia: 486pa, .720ops, .309woba, 92wRC+
9) CF Rasmus: 526pa, .689ops, .302woba, 90wRC+

2012

1) DH E.En'cion: 129pa, .900ops, .379woba, 142wRC+
2) 2B Johnson: 128pa, .855ops, .379woba, 142wRC+
3) LF Thames: 97pa, .724ops, .312woba, 96wRC+
4) 3B Lawrie: 126pa, .722ops, .312woba, 96wRC+
5) RF Bautista: 132pa, .673ops, .301woba, 89wRC+
6) C Arencibia: 87pa, .654ops, .289woba, 81wRC+
7) SS Escobar: 136pa, .624ops, .277woba, 72wRC+
8) CF Rasmus: 114pa, .637ops, .268woba, 65wRC+
9) 1B Lind: 109pa, .584ops, .261woba, 61wRC+

2010-12

1) RF Bautista: 1470pa, .993ops, .420woba, 166wRC+
2) 3B Lawrie: 297pa, .853ops, .370woba, 135wRC+
3) DH En'cion: 1026pa, .801ops, .347woba, 117wRC+
4) 2B Johnson: 1412pa, .799ops, .351woba, 114wRC+
5) LF Thames: 491pa, .760ops, .329woba, 105wRC+
6) CF Rasmus: 1174pa, .760ops, .328woba, 105wRC+
7) SS Escobar: 1293pa, .709ops, .319woba, 97wRC+
8) 1B A.Lind: 1264pa, .711ops, .307woba, 89wRC+
9) C Arencibia: 610pa, .699ops, .302woba, 87wRC+


Lind honestly doesn't deserve to be anywhere other than 8th or 9th in the lineup, and really that performance with no defensive value makes him a guy who should be fighting for his MLB career as a bench bat.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#256082) #
well, Lind's been moved down to the 8 spot today.

johnson
escobar
bautista
encarnacion
thames
lawrie
rasmus
lind
arencibia

which make sense....except farrell apparently feels the need to "address the media" before the game on this "big" move, which I think is the entire problem.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#256083) #
"it isn't the lineup order but who is in that lineup that matters most"

I more or less agree but wouldn't it make sense to have your best four hitters (say) in the aggregate hitting 1-4? Over the course of a season, they would accumulate a modestly greater # of PAs than the five weaker hitters - might this not translate into an extra win or so? I would be interested in reading something authoritative on this.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#256084) #
Glad to see that Farrell at least agrees with my lineup 1-6 :)
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#256085) #
I think the other question that has to be asked is: is Murphy still the right hitting coach for this team? I have no idea - he's had a couple of nice successes (Bautista, EE), but there have been others who have been quite poor on his watch (Lind and Hill are probably the two most egregious). The team also seems to have a reputation as free-swinging with big power ("let 'er rip" as guiding philosophy) but somehow not quite as legit/productive as the better offenses in NY, Boston, Texas, etc.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#256089) #
In other wish-fulfillment news, Cordero is out as closer. Janssen is in.
sam - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#256090) #
Well someone reads da box
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#256091) #
Lind batting 8th against a RHP is a good first step to a platoon.  Janssen as interim closer is a good choice.  At 30 games in, it is not too late to make a change.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#256093) #
Somehow Oakland has a good record to date, 16-14.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#256095) #
Best #8 hitter ever.
China fan - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#256096) #
Adam Lind now has a higher OPS than Colby Rasmus! Time to move him up to a higher spot in the lineup!
John Northey - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#256097) #
Watching the game on MLB GameDay one cannot help but wonder how different the game would be if the computer called balls & strikes based on the real zone vs the ump's personal one.

Morrow had the final out of the 5th but the ump called it a ball and the next pitch went for a single to drive in a run. The fact Morrow is wild today probably contributed as the pitch was near the borderline but was a strike. Similar things happened for the other team as well so this isn't just a Jays thing but a baseball thing.

I say go with 5 umps, one upstairs doing the setting of the strike zone for the computer who also reviews plays for error calls and for reviews in general - you know an ump wouldn't overrule another ump unless it was clearly a missed call. Then we'd have replay, it'd be faster (umps know the plays inside out) and the umps would be more in favour as it would mean a lot more jobs for them (15 active plus backups for those 15).
sam - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#256098) #
I really don't know what JP Arencibia is talking about in his comments this morning on being pinch hit. I understand his frustration with being pinch hit especially after getting into the batter's box. That's embarrassing and not something you want to subject a player to. However, Arencibia's comments that he has always produced in those situations in his career is perhaps a tad bit of an embellishment.

With RISP and two outs, he hits .171 at the ML level. "Late&Close" he hits .153. Tie game .192. Behind .190. I wonder if anyone pointed these stats out to him.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#256099) #
The goal for the Jays this year, I feel is uncertain. I expect 85-91 wins. I picked 83 wins in the survey as a strategy of being slightly pessimistic rather than my usual overly optimistic.
Based on the off season, I expected NYY, Boston, TB, Texas & LAA to win 4 of the available playoff spots with Detroit winning the Central. Sure any of the other teams can win but IMO they are long shots.

So with my low expectations for the Jays I consider this another development year. Still if opportunity is staring us in the face for a playoff spot because those favorites I mentioned suck, then I would reevaluate.

My personal evaluation would be as follows:-
I would have a plan A & B.
Plan A, if I am comfortably ahead of my competition. For me that is a solid 2nd place in the hunt for the 4 available playoffs spots. I would consider paying a bit steeply to improve the club. No half way and it may hurt.

Plan B for not being solidly in 2nd. Do what you have to to improve the future. If elite talent can be HAD for our ML players that are doing well like regulars KJ & EE or the future Bullpen FAs then I trade them.

I am quite sure that my Plan B will be unpopular, but I still do it for elite talent. Another Lawrie is most welcome.

JB21 - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#256100) #
A reliever throwing strikes in the 9th! The starting pitching continues to impress.

I can't help but think we've wasted a fairly easy schedule to start the year with some soft hitting and the constant imploding of our bullpen. 4 big games coming up against a bad team. We need to take care of business before a tough run in the schedule.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#256101) #
With 9 spots in the batting order, there is no need for Lind to be forced into hitting 4th.

I know that he said that he has always hit badly his whole life in the 4th spot. I believe Cito wanted to bat him 4th.

I hope Lind thrives in his new spot in the batting order. Today EE is doing well at 4th.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#256103) #

Watching the game on MLB GameDay one cannot help but wonder how different the game would be if the computer called balls & strikes based on the real zone vs the ump's personal one.

Watching much of the game on TV today, Morrow was actually a frequent benefactor of getaway day umpiring, where strike zones are bigger than usual.

There were two other getaway day games today. Chicago beat Atlanta 1-0, with 4 combined walks. Cincinnati beat Milwaukee 2-1, with 3 combined walks. Had the umps in Oakland not had a flight to catch, Morrow would have probably walked more than 4.

 

bpoz - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#256104) #
I have a question about LOB in the boxscore. Today Oakland had 7 hits & 5BBs (12 men on base?) and 20 LOB.
My answer for an example is if the bases are loaded with none out then 3 men are on base, if 3 batters get to the plate and do not score anyone then those 3 batters count as 9 LOB.

I never realized that.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#256105) #

My answer for an example is if the bases are loaded with none out then 3 men are on base, if 3 batters get to the plate and do not score anyone then those 3 batters count as 9 LOB.

No. That's 3 LOB. If you add up each individual player's LOB, then you'd get 9. But that involves a ton of double- and triple-counting. And nobody would ever intentionally cite the sum of each player's individual LOB. Presumably you were looking at a boxscore which totalled the player-level LOB column.

AWeb - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#256106) #
There seems to be a distinction between team left on base (the traditonal one that is typically between 5-10 a game), and player-specific left on base. I'm not sure exactly how it works for individuals - does a bases-loaded single that scores 1 run count as left on base in some way, and does it depend on what the next batters do?

Had no idea this game was on early today - glad to see a "routine" looking win, and a save from Janssen. Just get the next few, please, so we can all forget how terrible the last few were. And as a long-time "get rid of Lind"-er, I'm glad he was at least put down in the order. Note to Farrell: one game performance does not merit a promotion back to the 4-spot.

dan gordon - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#256107) #
Amazingly enough, that's the first time this season that the Blue Jays have had a 3-up, 3-down 9th inning in a save situation.
Thomas - Wednesday, May 09 2012 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#256111) #
It's a former Blue Jays party in Minnesota as the Twins have purchased the contracts of PJ Walters and Darin Mastroianni tonight.
katman - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 03:37 AM EDT (#256113) #
Good for Mastro. I wish him well.

Surprised at PJ. Man, the Twins are in worse trouble than I thought.

John Northey - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#256115) #
The Twins are interesting...
Josh Willingham: 187 OPS+ wow
Justin Morneau: 113 OPS+, 230/313/459 - better than Lind.
Joe Mauer: 111 OPS+, nice recovery

Regulars listed at 1B/2B/3B/SS/RF: OPS+ between 36 and 64. Ouch.

Rotation ERA+: by number of starts: 80-43-59-75-45-70 and Diamond with 1 7 inning start not allowing a run. Talk about a diamond in the rough (OK, really bad joke).

Their one plus has been the pen: top 4 relievers (in appearances) have ERA+'s over 130, closer at 101.
Ryan Day - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#256116) #
I understand, intellectually, that most competent relievers should be able to protect a 3-run lead, but it was still a thrill to see Janssen come in, throw strikes, and get 3 outs. A flamethrower like Santos can be fun to watch, but it's not always as satisfying as a guy who can hit the strikezone regularly like Janssen.
92-93 - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#256117) #
"I really don't know what JP Arencibia is talking about in his comments this morning on being pinch hit. I understand his frustration with being pinch hit especially after getting into the batter's box. That's embarrassing and not something you want to subject a player to. However, Arencibia's comments that he has always produced in those situations in his career is perhaps a tad bit of an embellishment."

While I thought it was a ridiculously inconsistent move by Farrell in a developmental season (especially since a few days earlier he had sent Drabek back out for the 6th with a fully rested bullpen even though he had been bad all day), let's be fair to Arencibia. The career he's referring to didn't start when he was 24 in the major leagues; he's thought of himself as a run producer his entire life.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#256118) #
I thought Farrell's decision was defensible. This is a developmental year, but the Jays are also trying to win, and making the playoffs in 2012 is not out of the realm of possibility.
robertdudek - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#256119) #
I thought Farrell's decision was defensible. This is a developmental year, but the Jays are also trying to win, and making the playoffs in 2012 is not out of the realm of possibility.

I think you are being far too pessimistic. I officially anoint the Jays solid contenders for a playoff spot. With the Red Sox continuing to struggle and the Angels not hitting, the Jays have a fighting chance to at least finish third in this division.

The weakest parts of the team (1b and bullpen) are theoretically the easiest to fix.
92-93 - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#256120) #
Which decision are you talking about, sending Drabek out for the 6th despite being terrible all day or PHing Vizquel for Arencibia? I'm just asking for some consistency from the manager - if it's a developmental year you send Drabek back out and you let Arencibia bat. If wins and losses matter there may be justification for using Vizquel there, but sending Drabek back out with a bullpen that had thrown 1 inning in 3 days was indefensible.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#256121) #
"the Jays have a fighting chance"

Robert: I would agree with that assessment.

92-93: I was talking about the Visquel move. I can see the arguments for leaving JP in (hot bat w/ power) and for pinch-hitting Omar (better bat control, switch-hitter, probably less likely to get doubled up, good defensive C on the bench). Of course, it all went to hell in a handbasket in the bottom of the 9th. Developmental goals and the imperative to win may clash at times, but the Visquel PH situation didn't strike me as one of them. JP is going to get tons of ABs in all kinds of situations in the future. Precluding him from hitting in that situation wasn't going to set him back in any way (and may have taught him a thing or two about self-control).
Mike Green - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#256122) #
I agree.  I thought that this club was a playoff contender at the start of the season, and nothing that has happened since has made me change my mind.  My concerns were first base and the depth in the rotation.  I still have those concerns, but the rotation is in better shape that I expected at this point of the season despite the (expected) injury to McGowan, the (not hugely surprising) struggles of Cecil, and the (not really expected) injury to Litsch.  If a couple of young pitchers take a step forward (as Morrow and Drabek appear to be doing), this is very good news.
John Northey - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#256125) #
Except I'd say that letting Vizquel hit in any meaningful situation is giving up - the guy really wasn't that much of a hitter at any point in his career, let alone at age 45. 24 seasons with just 2 over 100 for OPS+ 2006 was the last time he was over 90. Last year he was at 61 (John McDonald level) and this year he is negative.

As I've said before, pinch hitting with Vizquel should be grounds for letting Farrell go. The only reason I can see for doing that is to light a fire under JPA for disciplinary reasons (ie: you refuse to do what I say then I'll bench you for the worst hitter I can find).
perlhack - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#256126) #
Pat Hentgen may find this potential rule change somewhat disappointing.
Ryan Day - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#256130) #
Well, Vizquel wasn't there to hit, but to bunt. And we can certainly debate the usefulness of a bunt, but once you've made the decision to bunt, Vizquel is certainly the better choice to do it.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#256131) #
I don't think Farrell was necessarily looking to have Vizquel flex his OPS in that AB. The point was to get Rajai Davis home from 3rd with one out in a 2-2 game (or to draw a walk, which would have brought the hot-hitting KJ to the plate with the bases loaded). For whatever reason, Farrell thought that the LHB Vizquel was more likely to get the job done (and there were lots of ways to get the speedy Davis home, including a bunt, hit-and-run, fielder's choice, base hit past a drawn-in infield, etc).

I'm not saying it was clearly the right choice, but it was not obviously the wrong one IMO.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#256133) #
I think Farrell probably thought that in that situation there was a relatively high chance of Arencibia (a) striking out or (b) grounding into a DP. Note that this year JP has a 0:15 BB:K ratio (with 2 GIDP and only one SF) in 68 PA against RHP.
bpoz - Thursday, May 10 2012 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#256143) #
I am surprised & delighted that a few more Bauxites than I thought consider the Jays contenders.

I felt that NYY, Boston, TB, Texas & LAA were 92+ win teams quite easily. Especially the Texas & LAA easier schedule being a huge advantage. I did not see the Jays at that level because of their youth. That was without Drabek & Hutchison included.
My modest hope is for them to grow into a young strong team this year and then be an annual contender from 2013 onward.
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