Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The bullpen, gang. The bullpen.


Which originally featured:

Sergio Santos (I've already given him an INC)
Casey Janssen
Darren Oliver
Francisco Cordero
Luis Perez
Carlos Villanueva
Jason Frasor

As always, I grade on the following curve:

A - Outstanding (You could be an MVP, and ought to be an All-Star)
B - Good (You too could be an All-Star)
C - Average (You're getting by, there are probably bigger problems)
D - Below Average (You passed. Big deal.)

E - Fail. (You don't belong at this level. Not at this moment anyway - not yet or not anymore)
F - Epic Fail (You need to look for a new line of work.)
Blue Jays Report Card: Sixth Preliminary! | 54 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
CeeBee - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#263386) #
Santos : I Hope he's healthy next year
Janssen : A
Oliver : A-
Cordero : F
Perez : C
Vilanueva : C+
Frasor : C+
China fan - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#263387) #
This is a little silly. The bullpen for 2013 has virtually no resemblance to the bullpen that began the 2012 season. Why bother ranking the old irrelevant one? Janssen might be the only holdover.
Dave Till - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#263389) #
Sergio Santos: Incomplete
He's found out that pitching doesn't just consist of throwing it in there and racking up lovely numbers - he's just discovered that pitching is about pain, and lots of it. Pitching is an unnatural act. He might be able to figure out how to do it regularly without re-injuring himself, but maybe not. Oh well - Nestor Molina wasn't much of a prospect.

Casey Janssen: A
Makes it seem easy - he throws strikes, and mostly they don't hit them too hard. Maybe more pitchers should try the drop-and-drive motion.

Darren Oliver: A
Professional left-hander, going for the Full Orosco. He could retire, find a contender to pitch for, or come back to Toronto. It's really his choice - he'll find work somewhere if he wants it.

Francisco Cordero: E or maybe F or perhaps G, H or Z
The fun part was when Houston signed him to be their closer. How long did that last? Four days? He used to have it, and he doesn't any more. It happens to everybody eventually. So it goes.

Luis Perez: C
He pitched okay for a bit. Then his arm fell off. So it goes.

Carlos Villanueva: B+
Well, I dunno either. If you sign him for what he will command on the market, you risk his burning out at the 150 inning mark, at which point you are throwing Canadian dollars into the toilet. If you don't sign him, you risk his going to the Yankees and owning you for three years. I'm glad I'm not a GM. My guess is that it's goodbye, Carlos. So it goes.

Jason Frasor: B
Showed signs of mortality this summer - for a bit there, I thought he was going to throw 50+ innings of sorta okay middle relief forever, defying time and allowing our children and grandchildren to share the joy of a Frasor outing (94 mph fastballs produced after some hesitation). So it (eventually) goes.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#263391) #
Casey Janssen- B+
Darren Oliver- B+
Francisco Cordero- F
Luis Perez- C
Carlos Villanueva- B
Jason Frasor- C+

The standards for relievers are higher than for starters. 
fozzy - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#263393) #
I'll agree with everything Mr. Till said, except that Oliver has a team option attached, so it's here or into the sunset next year (I have a hard time believing the Jays will pay 500K to buy him out to pitch for someone else).

Cordero deserves a grade worse than letters can describe. Pretty close to the worst ever. Worse than Jeff Tam. Worse than Doug Creek (there is no way on earth he had a 3.29 ERA in Toronto). That he cost the team Darin Mastroianni, while Ben Fransisco had to be traded for (then to just get to sit there and eat Spitz) just makes it that much more irritating. Better than Kerry Lightenberg though, so there's that...

Has the Box ever done a feature on worst Jays relievers ever?

Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#263394) #

Sergio Santos has a delivery problem (he takes the ball out of his glove much too late in his follow-through).  His effectiveness will be limited until he improves his delivery.  That being said, he's still cheap, and still good at his job.

Casey Janssen has shown he's a consistent reliever, much likelier to repeat, than to fail.  He's also shown he's dominant in late innings, while others failed.

Darren Oliver is a pleasure to watch, an old fart still dominant, well worth bringing back.  It's possible he's retiring, if not playing his option year.  Chances are he gets offered an Organization job if he doesn't play.

Francisco Cordero was a high risk signing???????  If he had anything left, he was a good choice, if too pricey.  As it turns out, he had nothing left.  Fortunately, A.A. was able to move him out, rather than release him.

Luis Perez was a surprise, effective enough until injured.  How the injury happened was a surprise.

Carlos Villanueva is a star as a Long Relief / Spot Starter / #6 or7 Starter.  Is he running out of gas as the season concludes?  You either pay him Starter monies and continue as Long Relief / Spot Starter / #6 or7 Starter, or you let him walk.  I don't see him as anything other than another inning-limited Starter and we've had too many of those.

Jason Frasor is under-appreciated, taken for granted and consistently effective.  I'm just worried he's reached his "best-before date" injury-wise.  I'd let him leave this offseason, only considering re-signing if he's unsigned late this offseason.

Hodgie - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#263395) #
You know it has been a long season when people are pining for Darin Mastroianni in multiple threads.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#263396) #
going for the Full Orosco

Jamie Moyer pitched until he was 49, but his clothes stayed on the whole time. How did he manage that?

Nice turn of phrase, Dave. 
greenfrog - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#263397) #
You know it has been a long season when people are pining for Darin Mastroianni in multiple threads.

Totally. But to give the man his due, he currently has a better OBP than everyone in the Jays' lineup last night, other than EE (significantly better in most cases). He also has 19 SB in 70 games, can play defence, and costs next to nothing.
Parker - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#263398) #
Sergio Santos has a delivery problem (he takes the ball out of his glove much too late in his follow-through).

That certainly WOULD be a delivery problem, since "follow-through" is the part of the pitching motion after the ball has left the pitcher's throwing hand.
fozzy - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#263399) #
I'm not pining, the whole thing just seemed like a strange exercise in circular logic, especially given the talent and money changing hands.

It all worked out okay, as AA made up for it by turning two floating pieces and prospects into a couple of useful guys to play out the season with, but the whole thing just encapsulates the Jays 2011 off-season; lots of moves that in the end amounted to very little gain.

Hodgie - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#263400) #
My apologies for the off-topic post but I would like to make an observation regarding the BattersBox Twitter account. I may be wrong, but in my experience there are many baseball fans that have deep interests in multiple sports, hockey being one of those. Insulting those of us that love hockey (every bit as much as baseball I might add) by generalizing us as pinheads is disappointing and not what I would expect from someone representing the Box in an "official" capacity. Unless of course that is the unwritten 13th Ground Rule here in which case I will simply bid adieu.
Paul D - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#263401) #
Sergio Santos INC
Casey Janssen A
Darren Oliver A
Francisco Cordero D
Luis Perez B
Carlos Villanueva B
Jason Frasor C+
John Northey - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#263402) #
Sergio Santos Incomplete, F for what he actually did (boy did he stink pre injury)

Casey Janssen A: sweet, more than I hoped for

Darren Oliver A: sweet, more than I hoped for

Francisco Cordero F-: his 75 ERA+ seems generous

Luis Perez B-: very solid but was limited to clean up roles, still don't understand Farrell's thinking there.

Carlos Villanueva C as reliever, B as a starter

Jason Frasor C: solid, good #3/4 guy in the pen

I figure in 2013 we'll see Janssen, Oliver, Frasor (resigned as free agent) plus Santos at some point. Perez is gone for 2013 most likely (Tommy John), Villanueva - if here - will be starting. Loup, Delabar, Lincoln, Carpenter and others will fight it out for slots and they might resign Lyon although I figure someone else will offer him a closing job but given a choice I'd pick Lyon over Frasor for 2013 or just sign both if possible (solid front 4, just need 3 relievers from the rest).
jerjapan - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#263403) #
I simply don't understand the love for Maestro.  For two years I quixotically talked about him being a solid candidate for a 4th/5th OF and was met with radio silence.  Now that he's had a good year for Minnie, suddenly everyone's a fan?  Frankly, it doesn't matter one bit whether or not we'd kept him - I just irrationally liked the guy, and he represents the fungible nature of end of the benchers.  Pining away for a guy who any GM out there could have had for nothing just seems pointless - quite clearly, he outperformed reasonable expectations. 
Alex Obal - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#263404) #
The International Brotherhood of Soft-Tossing Righthanders precinct hereby awards Carlos Villanueva the grade of A-.
Oceanbound - Thursday, September 13 2012 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#263408) #
Cordero can be accused of a lot of things, in a lot of variously unpleasant words, but one thing he can't be blamed for is the loss of Mastroianni. He was obviously not well regarded enough to remain on the 40 man, with or without Cordero.

Moreover, it's not like Mastroianni is a great or even good bet to replicate his current level of performance going forward.
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#263409) #
Villanueva is making a lot of noise about wanting to Start (or be paid better?), talking to several Reporters.  (Teams are shy about unneccessary attention.)  Villanueva talks with Reporters about his meeting with A.A.  (That's not their business.)  I now think any chances he had of returning to Toronto has now become remote.
AWeb - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#263410) #
Sergio Santos - INC
Casey Janssen - B+ - this is as good an Janssen can be, a solid top 2/3 BP guy.

Darren Oliver - A. Could anything more be asked. One of the few guys that actually seems to throw pitches to all corners on purpose. Reminds me of good BJ Ryan with a few less mph - no idea why guys can't hit him harder, but it seems to work. As an aside, he's the last active player who pitched in MLB during the 1993 season (i.e., the last time the Jays won). Miguel Batista (yes, him) pitched in 1992 but didn't make it back until 1996.

Francisco Cordero - F. I expect him to find other leagues to pitch in until his arm actually falls off, but I think his MLB days are done.

Luis Perez - B - had to look him up to see his numbers were actually pretty good.

Carlos Villanueva - B+.  Not as good in the BP as the rotation this year, at least relatively. Keep this guy, spend the damn money that is piling up in a money bin somewhere. I'm tired of the "efficiency" arguments over payroll, just offer the arbitration and see if his arm explodes next year (seriously, why not?). This grade, from me, is for a bullpen guy who has been forced into the rotation. i.e, he hasn't been an B+ starter (more like a B-?), but he's been an A for a long man converted to the rotation, so I split the difference.

Jason Frasor - C-.  So boring, so consistent year after year (for ~60 IP/year, his ERA+ has remained very steady), so prone to ill-timed HRs. Good filler, not a good enough guy for a top 3-4 spot anymore, I don't think.
rpriske - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#263415) #

Based on this from MLB Trade Rumors, even saying remote is an overstatement. He's not coming back.

 

  • Last night, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters that he isn't sure if impending free agent Carlos Villanueva could last as a starter across the course of an entire season.  Villanueva, who has a 3.58 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 13 starts this year, told reporters that he isn't happy with the lack of public support, according to Tony Ambrogio of Sportsnet (via Twitter).  The right-hander is looking to be a full-time starter going forward, which would call for a more lucrative contract.  Here's more from the Eastern divisions..

    • Villanueva told reporters, including MLB.com's Chris Toman, that he took some time to speak with Anthopoulos following his comments to the media.  "It's OK for him to have that doubt. It's OK for him to have his own opinion, because there are 29 other teams that might have a different opinion -- that's why we battle to get to free agency, so we can see what else is out there," Villanueva said.
    • Villanueva told reporters, including MLB.com's Chris Toman, that he took some time to speak with Anthopoulos following his comments to the media.  "It's OK for him to have that doubt. It's OK for him to have his own opinion, because there are 29 other teams that might have a different opinion -- that's why we battle to get to free agency, so we can see what else is out there," Villanueva said.
    whiterasta80 - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#263417) #

    Sergio Santos

    Not going to grade him.


    Casey Janssen- A-

    Definitely a good bullpen arm.  I'd love it if he and Oliver were the setup men next year.


    Darren Oliver- A-

    Again a very good piece for a team.  I doubt he'll be as valuable next season so if someone wants to pay for his 2012 performance I'd let him go and look at bringing someone else in.

    Francisco Cordero- 7

    For this grade I went through the entire alphabet, then had to start assigning numbers sequentially. I still think I was generous.  I was supportive of taking a chance on him in the offseason but man that was an unmitigated disaster!

    Luis Perez- C+ (pre-injury)

    He has a place in a MLB bullpen, just not a place at the back.

    Carlos Villanueva- B

    I agree with AA that he probably doesn't hold up to a whole MLB season in the rotation, but for him to come out and say publicly he has to have seen an MRI. Still, both this season and last he has been extremely valuable in the swingman role.  Good MLB teams have a guy like that and he'll be tough to replace if he walks

    Jason Frasor- C+

    Not his best season with us, but still valuable.

    John Northey - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#263418) #
    Could just be pre-contract battles or could be a permanent rift. I'd like Villanueva back, but as I said before I suspect (as he does) that someone out there who is desperate will go into 'stupid money' to get him.

    If I was AA I'd say 'if you can get it, go for it' and stick to a reasonable risk level (2-3 years, max of $10 per year although I think that might be too much for a guy who never has had that much success before). If I was Villanueva I'd be trying for the silly money this winter and see if someone would give 3-5 years at $10+ mil a year. Can't blame either side here as both are just being smart for themselves although it would've been better if AA hadn't gone public imo.
    Dave Till - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#263421) #
    It's worth mentioning somewhere: at least part of pitching is defense. I was thinking of this when watching the highlights of last night's game (thank you, MLB At Bat). Brett Lawrie made a play that has to be seen to be believed - he travelled about eight running steps to his right, scooped up the ball, and flung it to first. It required a great play by Lind at the other end to grab the throw, but Lawrie didn't have time to set himself and throw properly. If he keeps doing this, Lawrie's going to get a Gold Glove very soon.

    I mention this because this great play is one less hit for the fortunate pitcher on the mound (Alvarez, in this case). If your third baseman can save you a hit a game, or even close, that makes a huge difference in pitcher statistics. I'd be curious to see the Jays' team ERA with Lawrie at third versus the ERA with someone else at third.

    MatO - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#263422) #

    I was watching last nights highlights as well and few questions popped into my head.  If someone wants to use them as future topics then be my guest.

    1. Is Rajai Davis the worst baserunner in Blue Jay history?
    2. Notwithstanding the highlight reel catch of a few weeks ago.  Is Rajai Davis possibly a worse outfielder than Eric Thames?
    3. How many gold gloves will Brett Lawrie win? (You beat me to it Dave)
    Hodgie - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#263425) #
    I can't comment on Davis' standing in the annals of Blue Jay base runners but I do think that he must rate highly in terms of pure entertainment value. Good or bad, it seems that he is responsible for at least one spectacular play a game. It's the pretty girl and the car wreck syndrome, can't help but be interested in both.
    Chuck - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#263427) #

    When the famously tight-lipped Anthopoulos says anything, anything at all, you can't help but feel that it is entirely calculated (unlike when his predecessor spoke, for instance). It would seem that he believes (and probably rightfully so) that somebody will roll the dice any pay to see if Villaneuva has the capacity to morph into a fulltime starter, a rare but not impossible transition. And AA is hereby telegraphing to Blue Jays Nation that the Jays won't be that team. The presumption is that this forewarning will serve to preempt the grief that will ensue when Villaneuva inevitably signs elsewhere causing the fanbase to moan about the dreaded payroll parameters. It's not the money, AA will be able to later say, it's because of concerns that I articulated in September.

    I have no idea if Villaneuva is worth taking a chance on, and I have no idea what that even means. 2/15? 3/25?

    I know that I do find this type of gamesmanship unsavoury. It's no surprise that Villeneuva would react as he has. AA says very little and seemingly never disparages anyone, and he has a long list of suspects he could pillory if he were so inclined. To call out one of the team's few bright spots for imagined (if even reasonably assumed) shortcomings just doesn't leave a good taste.

    Mike Green - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#263428) #
    I wouldn't exactly describe it as 'calling out'.  It is more like negotiation through the media.  Either way, it's not a good idea. 

    Brett Lawrie has now had almost a full season of PAs.  If you use UZR as a measure of his defensive ability, he has generated 5.2 WAR (fangraphs).  If you use DRS as a a measure of his defensive ability, he has generated 7.1 WAR (BBRef).  Helluva player.



    TamRa - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#263434) #
    regarding Villianueva, AA said about 2B - in so many words - that he valued keeping his options open because you never knew who might become available.

    i think that's probably what he's doing with Carlos.

    After all, he must know that CV pitched over 180 innings (between the minors and majors) in '06 at the age of 22 with appraently no lingering aftereffects.  I'm okay with keeping his options open if that means he's goingto trade for this year's Gio or whatever. but I'll be unhappy if he gambles and CV signs elsewhere and we end up having to plug this year's JoJo into the rotation for lack of a better option.

    Looking at the list of free agent possibilities for SP - I might very will put CV in the top 10 of my prefered options overall, and certainly very high in terms of cost/benefit.

    (Speaking of 2B, am I the only one that's paying a lot of attention to Jeff keppinger lately?)

    TamRa - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#263435) #
    I agree with AA that he probably doesn't hold up to a whole MLB season in the rotation

    2005 (all minors, A+ and AA)

    21 years old, 3.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.3 SO/9, 25 appearances, all starts, 133 IP

    2006 (AA-AAA)

    22 years old, 3.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8. 4 SO/9, 22 appearances 19 starts, 22 appearances, 19 starts - 128.2 IP

    2006 majors
    3.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.5 SO/9, 10 appearances 6 starts, 53.2 IP

    Total for 2006 - 32 appearances, 25 starts, 182.1 IP

    No sign over the next couple of years that he suffered any health issues from that workload.

    I suggest the question of whether he can handle it HAS been addressed. At least on a year to year basis. whether he could handle it over a stretch of, say, 3-4 years might still be in doubt. but how many pitchers go four straight years without some injury issues?


    hypobole - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#263448) #
    Is Rajai Davis the worst baserunner in Blue Jay history?

    I don't know about history, but he isn't even the worst in the past 2 years, or have we forgotten The Adventures of Corey Patterson.
    China fan - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 06:31 AM EDT (#263452) #
    TamRa, the issue about Villanueva is not health. It's the fact that his results seem to deteriorate in the 6th and 7th innings, and his results also seem to deteriorate as he goes deeper into the season (as a starter). You can't have a starter in your rotation who will require the bullpen for 3 or 4 innings on every start -- it exhausts the bullpen. And you can't have a starter who gets predictably worse as the season goes on. This year, for example, his ERA was 3.02 in his first 9 starts, and it ballooned to 4.81 in last four starts. The opposition has a .843 OPS against him in his last four starts. It suggests that he is getting tired and the league is adjusting to him, and this is what Anthopoulos is concerned about -- since it also happened last season. The logical conclusion is that Villanueva is a great guy to have on your team, as a long reliever and spot starter, but you shouldn't put him into your rotation for a full season. So the Jays want him in the bullpen, as a reliever and back-up starter, not in the rotation. And that's the guideline for the money that they are offering him.

    My guess is that AA and Villanueva (or his agent) have already held multiple conversations this year, in the hopes of getting a deal, and they have a sense of each other's positions already. The likelihood is that AA wants to sign Villanueva, but wants to give him "swing man" money. His public statements are simply a reflection of that. He is saying, publicly, the same thing that he is saying privately. This is a strategic mistake if it alienates Villanueva -- but it's not a strategic mistake if Villanueva has already heard the same thing privately from AA and refuses to accept it. In other words, if Villanueva thinks he is a starter and is willing to go elsewhere to prove it, then there is little chance of a deal with the Jays, and it doesn't matter at all what Anthopoulos says publicly.

    My guess is that AA is hoping to make it clear to Villanueva (publicly) that his only hope of a multi-year contract is to abandon his demand for starter-type money. He's probably said it privately to Villanueva's agent many times, without effect, and so now he's trying it publicly. Villanueva doesn't like it, understandably, but it is realpolitik. It's not a strategic mistake if it's the only way to persuade Villanueva to back down from his demand for starter-type money.
    scottt - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#263453) #
    I don't see how an extra inning every 5 days can be an issue.

    Over his last 10 starts, Romero has pitch 7 innings only 3 times.
    Morrow only twice, going the distance both times, but not getting out of the first inning the next time.
    Alvarez, has only 3 starts of 7 innings in his last 10.
    Villanueva has only 1 7 inning start in his last 10.

    There are usually guys in the pen whose job is to pitch the 7th.

    I don't see a problem there.
    It's the guys who fold in the first 3 innings who kill the pen.
    China fan - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#263454) #
    You're absolutely right that the Jays starters have had problems this year, and too many of them have exited early from their games. Which helps to explain a bunch of things: 1) why the Jays bullpen performed so badly for the first two-thirds of the season; 2) why the Jays have gone with 8 relievers for most of the season; 3) why AA decided to acquire more relievers by trade; 4) why AA keeps talking about the need to bolster his rotation with better starters next year; 5) why AA might not be keen to give starter-type money to a pitcher like Villanueva who tends to fade after 5 or 6 innings, and after 8 or 9 starts.
    Original Ryan - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#263455) #
    It's the fact that his results seem to deteriorate in the 6th and 7th innings

    For what it's worth, the same thing was said about Woody Williams when he was in Toronto.

    John Northey - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#263456) #
    Well, rather than compare the Jays current staff to Villanueva, lets look at the last strong rotation, 2008. That year 4 guys had 25+ starts, a 5th had 19 and just 8 starters were used. Of those 8, all but one had an ERA+ of 97 or better (a 77 from David Purcey over 12 starts).

    56% of starts were quality starts - this year its at 48%.
    Per start: 6.3 IP vs this years 5.7 - Halladay over 7, Burnett/Litsch/Marcum over 6, McGowan at 5.9 all over the league average. This year Alvarez & Villanueva are tops at 6.0 then Morrow at 5.9 - by luck the league average is the same as in 2008, 5.9.

    That helps explain a bit but also confuses. Villanueva has been as durable as anyone for IP per start this year, but the pen is killed because of that since Villanueva at #1 is barely over league average and that is with him having his best year ever by a landslide. It is perfectly understandable (to me) that AA is hesitant due to Villanueva pitching his best is still a guy you can only count on for 6 innings a game. This team desperately needs someone to do a Halladay, or at least the levels Burnett did of 6 1/2 IP per start to give the pen a bit of a break once ever 5 days.

    Each extra out you need out of the pen reduces the effectiveness of the pen. Relievers are shown to be best when they face as few hitters as possible (can throw the crap out of the ball for one or two, then start slowing down or losing control).
    Magpie - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#263457) #
    Villanueva must be thinking "If he gave Dustin McGowan a contract..."
    greenfrog - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#263458) #
    Hey, if Villanueva wants to sign for 3/$4.1M with an a fourth year club option for $4M, I'm sure AA would be all ears.
    Thomas - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#263460) #
    This team desperately needs someone to do a Halladay, or at least the levels Burnett did of 6 1/2 IP per start to give the pen a bit of a break once ever 5 days.

    And signing Villanueva in no way precludes them from acquiring that sort of starter (or should in no way preclude them with a reasonable payroll). The team's bullpen isn't going to go to shambles because Villanueva doesn't usually get into the 7th inning.

    greenfrog - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#263461) #
    I think the Jays are looking a gift horse in the mouth with this whole Villanueva thing. The Toronto Cheap Jays. It's getting old.
    Mike Green - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#263464) #
    The organization has emphasized the importance of starting pitchers pitching into the 7th inning.  In my view, the goal may be worthy but it is better to work organically with what a pitcher actually has.  Some pitchers are horses- Ricky Romero in a typical year can regularly throw 7 innings.  Some are very efficient, like Halladay (who is also a horse).  But others simply don't have either of these qualities, and it is a serious mistake to not properly value their contributions or to try to make them into something they are not. 

    It is a bit strange to have this emphasis while running out 8 man pens.  I


    scottt - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#263467) #
    Happ has never shown much endurance either.

    They certainly could use another top pitcher along with Romero and Morrow, that's not the role Villanueva could play. He would provide depth so that Alvarez can start the year in the minors. Without Villanueva we will see the replacement pitchers stacked in Vegas, maybe as early as April.
    John Northey - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#263468) #
    Y'know, thinking it through what ranges do the guys we have got who are likely for 2013?
    2013...
    1) Morrow 5.7 IP/start lifetime, 5.1 to 6.0
    2) Romero 6.4 IP/start lifetime, 5.8 to 7.0
    3) Happ 5.8 IP/start lifetime, 5.5 to 6.3
    4) Alvarez 6.0 and 6.4 IP/start his 2 seasons
    5) new guy or Villanueva (5.7 - from 4.8 to 6.1) or Laffey (5.6 - 5.0 to 5.9) or Cecil (5.9 - 5.5 to 6.2) or minor leaguer

    Only Romero, out of that group, has ever gone more than 6 1/2 IP per start over a season. Lifetime none but Romero and Alvarez reach 6.0.

    Now, the Jays are committed to Romero & Morrow in 2013. That leaves 3 slots. Happ and Alvarez are fighting (and favourites) for 2 slots but no guarantees.

    No matter how I cut it though, resigning Villy, if you feel he is for real, makes sense if it is sub-$10 mil a year over sub-3 years unless you are super-excited.

    #1 priority is to find a horse. Someone who can be a 100 ERA+ or better guy who goes 6 1/2 or more per start.
    Magpie - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#263469) #
    #1 priority is to find a horse. Someone who can be a 100 ERA+ or better guy who goes 6 1/2 or more per start.

    I suspect there's a redundancy there - in the modern game, any pitcher who averages 6.5 IP per start is certain to have a 100+ ERA; he wouldn't be allowed to pitch that much otherwise. You can't be an inning-eater unless you're good. But what I was really curious about was: exactly how many of these pitchers are out there? Enough to go around?

    Nope. In the majors this season, there are 22 such starters (15 start minimum). I believe the worst ERA+ is Roy Halladay, who's at 100 on the nose. Here they are:

    
    
    J.Verlander	DET	30	7.24	
    Felix Hernandez	SEA	30	7.07	
    CC Sabathia	NYY	25	7.04	
    Cole Hamels	PHI	28	7.04	
    R.A. Dickey	NYM	29	7.03	
    Cliff Lee	PHI	26	7.00	
    C. Kershaw	LAD	30	6.87	
    Matt Cain	SF	29	6.87	
    Jake Peavy	CHW	28	6.86	
    James Shields	TB	29	6.86	
    Clayton Richard	SD	30	6.73	
    Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	29	6.73	
    Chris Sale	CHW	26	6.69	
    Clay Buchholz	BOS	25	6.69	
    David Price	TB	28	6.69	
    Johnny Cueto	CIN	29	6.63	
    M. Bumgarner	SF	29	6.63	
    Jason Vargas	SEA	30	6.61	
    Matt Harrison	TEX	28	6.58	
    Colby Lewis	TEX	16	6.56	
    Yu Darvish	TEX	27	6.53	
    Roy Halladay	PHI	22	6.51	


    Last year there were 28 such starters; I believe the only one who had a sub 100 ERA+ was Carl Pavano. Those fellows were:

    
    
    James Shields	TB	33	7.55
    J. Verlander	DET	34	7.38
    Roy Halladay	PHI	32	7.29
    Cliff Lee	PHI	32	7.26
    CC Sabathia	NYY	33	7.18
    Jered Weaver	LAA	33	7.13
    Felix Hernandez	SEA	33	7.07
    Clayton Kershaw	LAD	33	7.06
    Ricky Romero	TOR	32	7.03
    Chris Carpenter	STL	34	6.97
    Dan Haren	LAA	34	6.97
    Ervin Santana	LAA	33	6.92
    Doug Fister	DT/SE	31	6.87
    Cole Hamels	PHI	31	6.87
    B. McCarthy	OAK	25	6.81
    Carl Pavano	MIN	33	6.73
    Ian Kennedy	ARI	33	6.73
    Daniel Hudson	ARI	33	6.73
    Matt Cain	SF	33	6.70
    Mark Buehrle	CHW	31	6.62
    Jair Jurrjens	ATL	23	6.61
    David Price	TB	34	6.59
    Tim Lincecum	SF	33	6.58
    C.J. Wilson	TEX	34	6.56
    J. Hellickson	TB	29	6.52
    Tim Hudson	ATL	33	6.52
    J. Masterson	CLE	33	6.52
    Johnny Cueto	CIN	24	6.50
    Come back, Ricky!
    Magpie - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#263470) #
    That's a very tough standard to meet, and I believe there are just 11 pitchers who have met John's criteria over both of the last two seasons: Verlander, Hernandez, Sabathia, Hamels, Lee, Kershaw, Cain, Shields, Price, Cueto, and Halladay. These guys simply aren't easy to get. You might notice that Edwin Jackson, who many of you wanted the team to go after last winter and who certainly would have helped the 2012 Jays a great deal, didn't clear this bar in either season (6.39 and 6.23 IP per start, which is pretty darn good.)
    Richard S.S. - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#263473) #
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters will determine what you need in Top Starters.

    The ability to go long into games is very important. Every Pitchers have 'dogs' wheRre they pitch less than 6.0 innings. Most pitchers have games where everything works letting them pitch more than 7.0 innings. The 'meat and potatoes' of a starters work occurs between 6.0 IP and 7.0 IP. How good a pitcher is occurs after the 7th Inning (basically the 4th time through the lineup). That how you pick who to acquire.

    John Northey - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#263478) #
    Yeah, 100 ERA+ was a bit much, debated a 95 as the standard since, for a starter that is pretty much a 100 (relievers have lower ERA's). Price of being a big fan in the 80's - I got used to guys doing stuff like that. For example, in the headache year (86) the Jays had 3 starters go 6 1/2 per start all with 95+ ERA+'s. In 1985 two were over 7, in 1993 with a weak staff they had 2 over 6 1/2 (Hentgen, Guzman). The league average in 1993 though was just 6.1 vs this years 5.9 - not as drastic a shift as one would expect (less than 1 out).
    ayjackson - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#263479) #
    No, John. You are right. Weneed one of thos guys off Magpie's list. Except Vargas. We don't need him.
    TamRa - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#263488) #
    Dan Haren, if they don't pick up his Option, might be a nice target - particularly if he would like a one year value-building opportunity.
    greenfrog - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#263491) #
    I've always liked Haren but I'm a bit concerned that he's starting to fade with all of his high-innings seasons. Given his track record, though (age 31 with a lifetime 116 ERA+), I have a hard time seeing him settle for a poochy one-year contract.
    greenfrog - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#263493) #
    I guess the hope would be that Haren rebounds the way Shields did after his one down year (albeit at a younger age). They've been pretty similar pitchers to date. I would rather have Shields at this stage, though.
    panz04er - Wednesday, September 19 2012 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#263599) #
    Francisco Cordero actually pitched even worse once he got to Houston.  He only pitched in 6 games and was 0-3 with 3 blown saves, not to mention the 19.80 ERA (5IP/11ER).
    panz04er - Wednesday, September 19 2012 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#263601) #
    Of the relievers who started the year in bullpen, I only see Janssen, Santos and Oliver coming back next year.  Jays hold option on Oliver, so unless he retires, he's probably not going anywhere.  At this point, bullpen I see for 2013 (using current roster) is Janssen, Santos, Oliver, Delabar, Lincoln, Loup (pitching better than ERA shows) and a battle between Litsch, Jenkins, Carreno, Laffey and Cecil for last 1-2 spots.
    bpoz - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#263668) #
    I agree with your analysis panz04er. I would like further discussion on the 2013 pen construction.
    First off, to me Janssen as the closer because he has had success. Oliver as a 7/8 inning option, also successful.

    After those 2 there has been some inconsistency from the available returning players. I would like 2 more pitchers for the 7-9 th innings. Lincoln & Santos are reasonable possibilities. Loup makes the team as the 5th arm due to success as Zep did last year.

    I really do not care/think who is in the 6/7 position. I expect Cecil as 1 because he is out of options.
    bpoz - Friday, September 21 2012 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#263669) #
    I agree with your analysis panz04er. I would like further discussion on the 2013 pen construction.
    First off, to me Janssen as the closer because he has had success. Oliver as a 7/8 inning option, also successful.

    After those 2 there has been some inconsistency from the available returning players. I would like 2 more pitchers for the 7-9 th innings. Lincoln & Santos are reasonable possibilities. Loup makes the team as the 5th arm due to success as Zep did last year.

    I really do not care/think who is in the 6/7 position. I expect Cecil as 1 because he is out of options.
    Blue Jays Report Card: Sixth Preliminary! | 54 comments | Create New Account
    The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.