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And now we look at the Replacements, the men who were summoned to join the team in mid-season.




There were so many that we're going to do need at least two parts to cover them all. First, the position players:

Yan Gomes
David Cooper
Anthony Gose
Moises Sierra
Adeiny Hechevarria
Mike McCoy

We're giving an INC because of sample size issues to Travis Snider and Yorvit Torrealba.

As always, I grade on the following curve:

A - Outstanding (You could be an MVP, and ought to be an All-Star)
B - Good (You too could be an All-Star)
C - Average (You're getting by, there are probably bigger problems)
D - Below Average (You passed. Big deal.)

E - Fail. (You don't belong at this level. Not at this moment anyway - not yet or not anymore)
F - Epic Fail (You need to look for a new line of work.)
Blue Jays Report Card: Seventh Preliminary! | 34 comments | Create New Account
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John Northey - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#263431) #
Yan Gomes: E-: tempted to give an F sadly enough but his CA/3B skills keep him barely over the line - cheered him on at first but his OPS+ is down to 44 now

David Cooper: C+: 110 OPS+ on this team is very good, but for a 1B/DH is just acceptable. Still, nice to see.

Anthony Gose: D: His speed and defense keep him from a much lower grade with his 68 OPS+. Since coming back Sept 1st he has hit 381/435/667 over 23 PA - if that has any reality to it then the promotion/demotion and loss of an option year was well worth it.

Moises Sierra: D-: was hitting up a storm then cooled down so his OPS+ is down to 81 - still might be useful in 2013 and beyond.

Adeiny Hechevarria: E+: his 56 OPS+ and 3-25 BB-SO ratio is scary bad but his D is very nice

Mike McCoy: F: his 38 OPS+ is very poor but just 53 PA however his lifetime mark is 45 so I think wysiwyg

Cooper and Gose should have roles in 2013 if Gose's drastic improvement in September is for real in the slightest. Hechevarria might but geez he needs to learn where the strike zone is. Sierra will probably be on the AAA/ML shuttle with Gomes & McCoy (think McCoy is out of options but who'd claim him). Cooper might take over the DH role if Lind is released and d'Arnaud needs time in AAA.
Mike Green - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#263432) #
Yan Gomes- D-
David Cooper- D+
Anthony Gose- C-
Moises Sierra- D+
Adeiny Hechevarria- D-
Mike McCoy- E

How can you rate Gose ahead of Cooper when Cooper hit so much better?  The reason is that Gose does everything else so much better that he added more value in 2012 than Cooper.  You could actually give Gose a C. 
whiterasta80 - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#263436) #

Yan Gomes: D-

See Vizquel, Omar- versatility only means something if you provide value when you are on the field. 


David Cooper: C+

No he isn't the second coming of Carlos Delgado, but we are a much better team when he is on the field and Adam Lind isn't. Still being better than Adam Lind shouldn't be the bar we are setting for talent.


Anthony Gose: C-

He's shown flashes which are encouraging, but he's not ready and I'm not sure he will be this time next year either.


Moises Sierra: C

He isn't horrible, but that shouldn't be the bar we are setting either. I don't see him being a significant contributor going forward.

Adeiny Hechevarria: C

He'd have a D but his defense is just so damn good.  Part of me wants to just give him the job at SS right now and let his bat sink or swim.  He only needs to OPS about .650 to have value to this team.


Mike McCoy: D+

Not worth discussing really.

Dave Till - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#263439) #
Yan Gomes: E, sadly
His swing has a lot of moving parts, and he just didn't hit enough. The Jays preferred Jeff Mathis's bat over his, and signed Yorvit Torrealba to replace him. Enough said.

David Cooper: C
Cooper shows exactly how valuable a .300 average is when you don't bring anything else to the table. He'll catch on somewhere if the Jays jettison him, I suspect - there's lots of left-handed hitters out there who can't even do that.

Anthony Gose: Under construction
I realized something the other day - when Gose reaches base, I stop what I am doing to pay close attention. Rajai Davis is fast, but this guy is disruptive. I'd have to give him a D+ or something on actual performance, but he's starting to figure it out. He might become great, or he might not, but I look forward to finding out. As Joe Strummer once said, "The future is unwritten."

Moises Sierra: Too early to tell
I suspect he's going to be Eric Thames with a better throwing arm.

Adeiny Hechevarria: D+
He's starting to get a bit better too. There's no way I'd let this guy go. His defense is just too good.

Mike McCoy: D-
He cut down on his frequent flier miles this year. But that's because the remnants of what used to be Omar Vizquel blocked his path. If you can't beat out Zombie Omar for a job, you're kinda doomed. You have to give him credit for playing when, where, and at what position he's asked to play. It beats working in a call centre, for sure.
Mike Green - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#263440) #
David Cooper is slower than molasses, and fields first base about as well as Adam Lind.  That is from observation, reputation and from the numbers.   The result is that when he hits .300/.324/.464, he ends up with 0 fangraphs WAR and .1 BBRef WAR in 115 PAs.  He would have made a good bench player for Earl Weaver or one of those old Yankee clubs. 
hypobole - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#263441) #
Gomes D- Not bad considering where he was a year ago. If he can continue to progress, he could be valuable, especially if we see another (god forbid) 3 man bench.

Cooper D+ His woeful defense keeps his score being any higher. I must admit I enjoy watching his PA's though. If only a few more of our hitters could have his discipline.

Gose C- His arm is less than I expected, but otherwise his D is excellent. Doesn't have to hit, just get on base. Seems to be improving; reality or SSS?

Sierra E+ Needs more time in the minors, but does have some tools.

Hech D+ Defense as advertised. Odd splits thus far; in the minors hit much better vs LHP than RHP.

McCoy E- Don't think you'll see much more of Mike, unless you subscribe to MiLB TV.


.
CeeBee - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#263442) #
Gomes : D
Cooper : C-
Gose : C
Sierra : C
Hechevarria : C-
McCoy : D
electric carrot - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#263443) #
am I the only one who thinks Cooper might improve his power, his average and his defense given a chance?

Mike Green - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#263444) #
Cooper might get better offensively.  The most likely areas of improvement are walk rate and (to a lesser degree) power.  He does hit line drives, and he doesn't strike out much, so he has a good base to work from.  He has to cut down on the pop-ups, which he may be able to do. 

The odds of defensive improvement are not great.  He was a first baseman in college, and he's now 25.  He is very slow, and now has had back problems. 

Parker - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#263445) #
You're not alone. I believe in David Cooper.
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 14 2012 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#263449) #
Yan Gomes can play 1B, 2B and C well enough. He started out hitting well. The Pitchers adjusted and it's Yan's turn. If he can hit well enough, he'll be very useful.

David Cooper plays a decent 1B and seems to hit well enough to stay. I just don't know if he'll ever hit for enough power to keep.

Anthony Gose will be in AAA most of next year (unless traded). This season he was to be only a September call-up. He is exactly as advertised, just needing to work on his hitting.

Moises Sierra will spend most of next year in AAA (unless traded). He too was only to be a September call-up. He's progressing defensively and learning to hit better.

Adeiny Hechavarria is a Star defensively and handles 3B and 2B quite well. His hitting however, is a work in progress. He will spend most of next year in AAA. He must hit better.

Mike McCoy place many positions adequately; he just doesn't hit much.

Travis Snider, in a very small sample, was just average - deserving of a fresh start.

Yorvit Torrealba was a very nice A.A. pickup and worth keeping if Arencibia get moved.

If Toronto's AAA Team moves to Buffalo as is tentatively projected, we get a truer read on our Pitchers and Hitters. No longer will Pitchers stagnate in AA.

hypobole - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#263450) #
A couple of days ago, Fangraphs asked "who gets the most production per swing?", using wOBA per swing as the measurement. The min 100 PA's Top 25 leaderboard contains a lot of expected names (Trout, Votto, Miggy, Ortiz), a couple of ex-Jays (Rios and Hill) and in the top 20 between Ryan Braun and David Wright sits the only current Jay - David Cooper.

Incidentally, there is a Bottom 25 board, min 300 PA's. The 9th least productive swinger, between Jeff Francouer and John Buck is Kelly Johnson.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/production-per-swing-in-2012/
China fan - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#263451) #
I believe Cooper has a good chance to become an OBP machine in the majors. His hitting is improving as he adjusts to the majors, and his walk rate will definitely improve -- it was much higher in the minors in the past two seasons. He's also got 20-HR power potential (he hit 14 in less than a full season at two levels this year) and he hits a ton of doubles. He's a useful guy to keep on the team, either on the bench or as DH and back-up 1B, depending on off-season acquisitions.
Dave Till - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#263459) #
David Cooper might become an OBP machine, but he has some work to do: in 145 major league plate appearances this year, he drew four walks.

His minor league numbers are fascinating, and tell a bit of a story: clearly, it looks like somebody in the Jays' class AA organization told him to work on swinging for the fences. His home runs went up, but his strikeouts went up and his average went down. Since then, he's decided not to do that any more.

The problem is that Las Vegas distorts hitting statistics so much that I haven't got a clue whether Cooper can actually consistently hit at the major league level. He's 25, so he's a couple of years short of the traditional peak age of 27; he might have a year or so where he puts it all together. Given Lind's unexceptional production, there's not a whole lot of difference between the two of them at present - the only reason to favour Lind is he had that one great season at the major league level. A season that is beginning to look like an ever more distant mirage.

Magpie - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#263462) #
I'm probably Cooper's biggest fan - which isn't exactly the highest bar to clear - but I don't think he's likely to be an OBP machine. I think his upside is .290 w/ 60 walks, 18-25 HRs. That's not a star, but after three years of Adam Lind I'd sure take it. I do think Cooper is the type of player who is more likely than many young players to actually reach his upside.

But what I really like about him is that swing. It's so simple and direct that it seems almost slump-proof. Well, no one is slump proof. But there's nothing even slightly complicated about his swing, no leg lifts, no opening up or closing down in mid-stride, no timing mechanisms. Nothing there to get messed up, nothing to get out of sync. So little that can go wrong. In the majors this year they've been working him outside, so he takes that outside pitch and hits it the other way. With authority. He makes hitting look simple.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#263465) #
Cooper has to hit quite a bit to make up for his other deficiencies.  Encarnacion has had a very good, but not great, in 2012, and he, at least, runs well.   Cooper will have to hit pretty close to how Encarnacion hit in 2012 to be a valuable contributor.  In other words, the standard is pretty much Lind 2009.  I don't think it is likely that Cooper can do that.  His realistic upside is that of an average player, and I agree with Magpie that he does have a better chance than most of reaching that upside. 
Richard S.S. - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#263471) #
No Blue Jay Report is complete without the Eighth Preliminary - the New Acquisitions.
J.A. Happ
Brandon Lyon
David Carpenter
Brad Lincoln
Steve Delabar

Magpie - Saturday, September 15 2012 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#263472) #
Stay tuned, then!
TamRa - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#263474) #
By the way, Lind has played in 42 games since his exile, and in that time he's hitting over .280 with an OPS over .800.

The problem with Lind, as with Rasmus this year, is not so much inconsistancy as it is that wen he gets cold, he's very very VERY cold - so the holes are that much harder to dig out of. If he turned out to be an .800-.820 1B/DH, that's not all star terrtory but it's not a liability.

I agree that we've been burned too much waiting on that to happen, but i have a hunch that - Like Hill - Once we well and truly give up on him and send him elsewhere, he will THEN bounce back to being a good hitter.

jerjapan - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#263480) #

Cooper has value until he hits his arb years.  Because of his advanced age and quality swing, he doesn't face the struggles of many younger rookies, so he can contribute immediately.  To my mind, he is what he is.  If we get lucky and he posts a nice age 27 year, we can sell high on him. 

Lind is a sunk cost and still has value as the left handed portion of a DH platoon.  I've said this before, but I think the right handed half should be Davis. 

greenfrog - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#263481) #
Some NL team (probably a non-contender) with natural grass should snap up Lind and give him one last chance.
Chuck - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#263482) #
Some NL team (probably a non-contender) with natural grass should snap up Lind and give him one last chance.

With three straight clunkers now on the books, why would anyone do this unless the Jays were to eat most of the remaining contract? Other organizations have no sentimental attachment to Lind and likely have their own pet projects to indulge.
greenfrog - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#263483) #
It's true - his contract ($5M for 2013, with $2M buyout re 2014) probably precludes it. But, like TamRa, I could see a Hill-like rebound if he moved somewhere with a more forgiving playing surface (and maybe a better climate) along with weaker pitching. Might be worth it if the Jays kicked in a million or two.
jerjapan - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#263484) #

speaking of replacement level guys, great story at BP on Eric 'crash' Kratz, former Jay minor leaguer, who's been a great backup for the Phillies this year.  I love it when career minor leaguers get a shot, and always thought that Kratz, with his good arm and power, should've been considered here as a backup.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18340

 

Mike Green - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#263486) #
Lind was never the player that Hill was and is.  Hill didn't need to have an offensive year like his 2012 to be a valuable everyday player; all he needed to do was to return to career average.  If Lind returns to his career averages (.264/.315/.460) as a poor fielding and slow first baseman,  he's just a decent platoon player.   And the possibility that Lind will return to his career average is less than Hill would (Lind's back injury, the fact that Lind's only good year is 3 years out whereas Hill had had two good years in five). 
TamRa - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#263487) #
Speaking of trends...Since August 12 Hech has a .729 OPS

Of course, the inevitable cycle of adjustments has too play out but it's a good sign.



greenfrog - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#263492) #
For sure, Lind is a risk, and probably not a great one. But Hill was something of a gamble last summer as well (it's easy to see his current situation through the rosy lens of hindsight), having come off basically two full seasons of serious suckage. I don't have high hopes for Lind - I just think a non-contender in a favourable environment might see him as a rebound candidate and potentially useful chip.
Moe - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#263494) #

speaking of replacement level guys, great story at BP on Eric 'crash' Kratz, former Jay minor leaguer, who's been a great backup for the Phillies this year.  I love it when career minor leaguers get a shot, and always thought that Kratz, with his good arm and power, should've been considered here as a backup.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18340

 

This is sad: "Kratz has some shot at being the most valuable player taken by the Blue Jays in that yearís draft."

And I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry: "Itís sort of interesting to imagine Michael Lewis being shut out by the Aís and instead going up to Toronto to chronicle this new sabermetric thing. If assessing the Aís draft remains controversial, imagine reviewing a chapter written back then about the Jaysí selections: 13 college kids in the first 15 picks, a group that was able to move quickly through the system while contributing, ultimately, almost nothing."


China fan - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#263496) #
".....Since August 12 Hech has a .729 OPS....."

Which is about 200 points higher than Kelly Johnson's OPS in the same time period. So, if Hechavarria is able to keep up the pace (which is not guaranteed, but could happen), he'd already be a better option than Johnson at 2B -- and for a small fraction of the money.

Hech's OPS since Aug. 12 is also slightly higher than Escobar's in the same period, but Escobar probably has a better chance of improvement next season than Johnson.
John Northey - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#263497) #
JPR's drafts were interesting... Guys with 1+ rWAR

2002: David Bush 2.5 WAR, Kratz 1.0
2003: Aaron Hill 20.4, Marcum 13.2, Ryan Roberts 4.9
2004: Casey Janssen 5.3, Litsch 3.4, Lind 2.3
2005: Romero 9.1
2006: Snider 1.7
2007: Cecil 2.7, JP Arencibia 2.0, Rzepczynski 1.8
2008: 5 negatives
2009: Loup 0.3, Hutchison 0.2 plus Jenkins & Gomes
---AA takes over
2010: Dyson -0.1
2011 & 2012: none yet

Interesting to see the hits (Hill, Marcum, Romero) and the many misses.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, September 16 2012 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#263499) #
Until Magpie presents his Eighth Preliminary, I have an item that might be interesting. As of today's game, Toronto's attendance is 1,921,645. With seven more home games on the schedule ( 27th - 29th NYY; 1st - 3rd Min), how many fans will be the final total. (At $24.81 average ticket price?)
hypobole - Monday, September 17 2012 @ 02:12 AM EDT (#263501) #
Ain't that a fact:
Hechavarria with the Jays is slugging .354.
Snider with the Pirates is slugging .349.
John Northey - Monday, September 17 2012 @ 06:28 AM EDT (#263505) #
Looks like 2 million is a lock, their best since 2008 when just shy of 2.4 million showed up. The Jays have had 2 streaks of 2 million plus...
1984-1999: the glory years and aftermath
2005-2008: JPR getting a bigger budget and some hope unfulfilled

The Jays are 7th in the AL for attendance, top 1/2 of the AL for the first time since 2008, just the second time since 1997 that could occur - Baltimore is 8th 21,000 behind but with 1 less home date left.

Interesting to note who is behind the Jays for attendance. Of the 7 teams included are Baltimore, Oakland, and Tampa (dead last in MLB). 3 surprise contenders who cannot get the basics of marketing/drawing fans down. Put the Jays in any of those teams positions and I bet we'd be seeing 40k a game on weekends and 30k a game on weekdays with sellouts for the upcoming Yankee series.
jgadfly - Monday, September 17 2012 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#263509) #
    Hechevarria's homerun swing brought to mind some of the initial scouting conversations likening him to Soriano ... even Soriano Lite with Hech's defense would still be a valuable player .
Blue Jays Report Card: Seventh Preliminary! | 34 comments | Create New Account
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