B-R Preview shows Rogers has never faced Tampa Bay as a starting pitcher, that Hellickson is very good against the Jays (2.53 ERA over last 5 vs TO)

Guys with lots of rest: Cecil, Delabar, Oliver.
Guys with enough to pitch: Wagner, Janssen (ideally not), Perez & Loup (3rd day in a row for Loup but just 10 pitches total over last 2 games)
Guys who should sit it out: McGowan (ideally Loup and Janssen also who have pitched 4 of the past 7 days).

The Lind-Rasmus duo is just screaming for Cesar Ramos in the 7th or 8th inning.

Almost all lefty hands on deck for the Rays: Joyce, Zobrist, Scott, Longoria, Loney, Myers, Fuld, Lobaton, Escobar.

This is Myers' home debut.

Now lets all try to relax rather than hitting the panic button. Its still a long season.

Game isn't over but Rogers battled other than the back-to-back-to-back jacks and Colby having some very good AB's is nice to see. Huge difference from April when Colby seemed to swing through everything (unless he happened to make contact and then the ball went 500 feet).

2 big innings left.

It's getting to the point where I almost want to see Perez give up an earned run, just so he'll have an ERA+.

Torres finally has an ERA+.

Well, that's something at least.

New rule: If you don't have 2000 fans in your park, you forfeit.

I realize this would devastate the Mets' home record, but I'm willing to make sacrifices to get the Jays the occasional win in Tampa.

Hey, the Jays drew 40,000 the first time they came to Tampa.

OK, it took four games to get there...

If your announced attendance is more than 200% the actual attendance, you also forfeit.

And to all good things there must come an end.

I didn't actually see this game but that line looks like a helluva "bad" start for Esmil Rogers. If the rotation's stinkers continue to look like that, this team is going to win A LOT of games down the stretch. Rogers being able to get 14 outs after back-back-back HRs really helps out the bullpen.

Couldn't spot his fastball in the first few innings. Got lucky in the first. Didn't get lucky in the second. I'm still a fan.

Reyes to come off the DL on Wednesday per Twitter.

How did Rogers give up back-to-back-to-back HR after pitching so well, I was getting ready for night shift so I missed that.

They can start another win-streak! I'd like the Team to start winning series when they are not sweeping them, especially now. They need to take advantage of struggling teams when they play them. Tampa was 4-8 last two weeks, so advantage Toronto. Boston had an ugly week last week . 5 or 6 wins by Toronto this week is not unreasonable.

Hey cool, we get to be terrified by Wil Myers for the next decade.

Why, is Tampa trading him within the division?

Lol, we also may need to worry about Hellickson. More often than not that guy looks like Sandy Koufax when facing us.

Nah, Myers will be with Tampa for 5 years then the Yankees for the next 5 once he gets expensive.  Unless, of course, they do a Longoria and sign him long term.  A shame a smart front office like that is stuck in a market with such a small fan base.

Rogers showed me something last night.  After getting battered about in the second, he rebounded and looked perfectly fine.  I particularly liked his efforts against Longoria. 

The offence (with the exception of Rasmus) had a bad game.  Time to start another winning streak....

By the way, Myers will be with Tampa for at least 6 more years after this one.  The Rays delayed his service time clock enough for that, and probably for Super-2 purposes as well.  Oh, the joys of being a successful low-attendance club. 

What I learned last night from Myers is that he will kill a 94 mph belt high fastball slightly to the outside half of the plate.  I had a feeling that was true from his minor league record.  It also looks like he is going to strike out 200 times a season at least at the outset without walking that much. How much improvement he makes in the plate discipline department will determine how valuable he becomes.

To this day I still can't believe that Kansas City made that trade. How Dayton Moore still has a job is beyond me.

To be fair, James Shields is pretty damn good and Wade Davis has helped stabilize the rotation. The problem was that Moore may have overrated the rest of the lineup, although they are only 6.5 back of the division and 5 back of the WC with a positive run differential.

Yeah personally I liked that trade from a KC standpoint. For one thing it isn't like their position prospects are sliding right into the lineup and succeeding. I think that they were just selling high on him as they likely should have on Moustakas.

For another, quality, durable arms don't exactly grow on trees. James Shields is borderline ace material and Wade Davis is better than anyone gave him credit for at the time of the trade.

All in all I'm not sure that KC could have gotten a better pitcher for the package, certainly not on as good of a contract. They also have Shields for 2 years, not 1- which I also think is a big deal.

Oh, I agree 92-93. My opinion is largely based on your second point. If Shields was the last piece to a championship roster I would be much more likely to endorse the trade ala David Cone for Jeff Kent. As it is, the Royals current place in the standings has been built upon what looks to be an unsustainable pitching performance that has been aided greatly by a league leading defense and a pitcher's park. Meanwhile, their offense toils at the bottom of the league.

Lest anyone forget, it is not like they only gave up Myers for Shields and Davis, but Odorizzi as well - someone that I believe would put up similar numbers to Davis today playing in that division. Montgomery I fear is likely a lost cause and the trade is Shields and Davis for Myers and Odorizzi. Given the place of both clubs, I know which side of that I would prefer. Banners may fly forever, but the regret of trading a star can last generations.

The problem was that Moore may have overrated the rest of the lineup

When you're the type of GM who gives Jeff Francoeur a multi-year contract, this is a real possibility.

In fairness to Moore, the young well-regarded position players in Kansas City (Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Cain, Butler) are uniformly hitting below expectations particularly in the power department.  For that club to have 40 home runs in late June is really pretty weird.  Is there something in the water, or have there been invasions of locusts which have sapped the Royals of their power?

Moore is an odd duck.  He worked his way through the system in Atlanta as a scout and climbed all the way to assistant GM.  Just months after becoming an assistant GM Boston seriously considered him for the GM role then KC gave him the job in mid-2006 when they were in the midst of their 3rd straight 100 loss season.  Now, it makes sense to bring in a scouting background person at that point as the rebuild was obviously going to be a big one.  Things improved, 93 losses the next year and 87 after that and a 4th place finish.  Since then though 4 straight 90 loss seasons and the team decides to 'go for it'.  Weird.  Only 2 regulars this year are over 100 for OPS+, the rotation has been healthy (just 1 start by someone outside the big 5), and just 29 players total used by the club (hitters and pitchers) - the Jays have used that many pitchers.

Strange how much trust ownership in KC seems to have in Moore.  As an assistant GM or scouting director I think he'd be fine but not as the overall GM.

James Shields is an absolute stud. The rays miss him badly.

Myers' degrading BB/K rates put his studliness in serious doubt, even if there's no doubting his bigtime power.

personally, I'd bet against Myers ever reaching Shields' level on a consistent basis, but admittedly he has a chance.

The rays may have cost themselves a playoff berth this year with that trade.

Eno Sarris has a fine interview with Casey Janssen at fangraphs. One thing about collegiate drafts; some of them may have an advantage in understanding heat maps and the like. 

Mike nailed it with the Royals this year - they've already fired their hitting coach and replaced him with George Brett, a move that may work, but great players rarely become great coaches.

One only has to look at Jose and Edwin here to see how getting together with the right coach/coaches can turn ordinary hitters into excellent hitters. We also saw with Lind and Hill how excellent hitters can turn into mediocre hitters.

Rays' SP 2012:

Price 31gs, 6.8ip/gs, 2.56era, 3.05fip, 3.12xfip, 3.16siera
Shields 33gs, 6.9ip/gs, 3.52era, 3.47fip, 3.24xfip, 3.19siera
Cobb 23gs, 5.9ip/gs, 4.03era, 3.67fip, 3.54xfip, 3.51siera
Moore 31gs, 5.7ip/gs, 3.81era, 3.93fip, 4.35xfip, 4.08siera
Hellickson 31gs, 5.7ip/gs, 3.10era, 4.60fip, 4.44xfip, 4.44siera
Archer 4gs, 5.9ip/gs, 3.80era, 2.71fip, 2.79xfip, 2.66siera
Niemann 8gs, 4.8ip/gs, 3.08era, 3.09fip, 3.65xfip, 3.60siera
Ramos 1gs, 2.2ip/gs, 0.00era, 4.97fip, 6.07xfip, 7.43siera


2013

**Shields: 16gs, 6.9ip/gs, 2.92era, 3.43fip, 3.59xfip, 3.69siera**
Cobb 13gs, 6.4ip/gs, 3.01era, 3.53fip, 2.99xfip, 3.16siera
Price 9gs, 6.1ip/gs, 5.24era, 4.03fip, 3.50xfip, 3.56siera
Hellickson 16gs, 6.2ip/gs, 5.11era, 3.99fip, 4.02xfip, 4.01siera
Hernandez 14gs, 5.9ip/gs, 5.14era, 4.41fip, 3.45xfip, 3.51siera
Moore 15gs, 5.4ip/gs, 4.13era, 4.22fip, 4.65xfip, 4.56siera
Archer 5gs, 5.1ip/gs, 4.21era, 4.84fip, 4.59xfip, 4.72siera
Colome 2gs, 5.0ip/gs, 0.00era, 3.15fip, 4.42xfip, 4.75siera
Odorizzi 3gs, 4.9ip/gs, 6.14era, 4.27fip, 4.91xfip, 4.59siera


If the Rays had Shields instead of Myers, I'd guess they'd be in first place right now.

not to mention they sure could use Davis' 70ip/2.43era in the bullpen this year.

If the Rays had Shields instead of Myers, I'd guess they'd be in first place right now.

Unless Shields was also going to DH and hit 20 HR in the first half I highly doubt that he is worth 5 games in the standings over half a season.

yeah, I exaggerated a bit, but no tall that much I don't think.

if we say look at unreliable WAR, according to B/R, Shields is worth 2.5 more wins than Hernandez so far, which would move them from 4.5gms back and 4th place to 2.0gms back in 2nd place, and currently holding a wildcard spot.

So you're right, not 1st place, but better...and in playoff position.

And if we add in half of Davis' bullpen 1.5war from last year and replace one of the many negative war relievers for the Rays for this year, that's another win added over half a season, putting them a game back of first in the AL.

So far, it seems that the trade is costing them a playoff spot. We'll see how it turns out the rest of the year.

So far, it seems that the trade is costing them a playoff spot. We'll see how it turns out the rest of the year.

Even that analysis is somewhat optimistic uglyone but you are correct in that the season needs to play out. Regardless, that misses the point behind my reaction to the trade. Tampa is playing the long game with the trade, leveraging an asset they were going to lose anyways for 6 years of control over a consensus top prospect AND one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The Royals on the other hand have gone all in for an outside shot at the playoffs with a two year window on Shields and a replacement level starter/generic reliever to show for their efforts if they don't succeed. This is not what I would consider the hallmark of a smart franchise.

In fairness to Moore, the young well-regarded position players in Kansas City (Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon, Cain, Butler) are uniformly hitting below expectations particularly in the power department.

Agreed (Gordon leads the team with 6 HR!), but that bad luck is at least partly offset by Shields matching his career best pitching (from 2011) and Santana having easily his best season ever.

When Hosmer and Moustakas start clearing the wall again, there may be some kind of Dorian Gray effect with Shields and Santana feeling the karmic pain.

If the Rays had Shields, Davis and Elliot Johnson instead of Myers, they would have an extra $12,300,000 on their payroll. The payroll restrictions placed upon the Rays have been noted repeatedly, so I think we have to assume the Rays are at or very close to their max payroll right now. Their payroll is $2 million lower than it was in 2011, but the Rays didn't make the playoffs last year and that drop be attributable to missing playoff revenue, as well as general operating losses.

Now, if Tampa still had Shields, they presumably wouldn't have signed Roberto Hernandez and if they had Davis, I'm going to guess they wouldn't have signed Jamey Wright, given that he is the addition to the bullpen who is a right-handed reliever. That would save the Rays about $4.25 million in salary.

Now, in order to save the rest of that money, the Rays would most likely have had to not sign or not trade for two of James Loney, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, who have been the team's primary 1B, LF and SS, respectively. (Or trade David Price.) Now the Rays wouldn't have dealt Elliot Johnson in that deal, as well, so maybe they'd have stuck with him at short and not dealt for Escobar, but that still leaves them short $3 million. Maybe Tampa's ownership would cover that or maybe they wouldn't have resigned Joel Peralta. Alternatively, maybe they wouldn't have signed Johnson or would have relied on some combination of Luke Scott, Ryan Roberts and Sean Rodriguez at first instead of Loney.

I could go on with counterfactuals for a long time, but my point is that you can't ignore the salaries of the three players dealt in this deal and just graft them onto the existing team without noting that other transactions would be impacted.

Tampa is playing the long game with the trade, leveraging an asset they were going to lose anyways for 6 years of control over a consensus top prospect AND one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

Which is a game they often have to play because of a very tight budget. With even a middling budget, I wonder if they would have made the trade.

The Royals on the other hand have gone all in for an outside shot at the playoffs with a two year window on Shields and a replacement level starter/generic reliever to show for their efforts if they don't succeed. This is not what I would consider the hallmark of a smart franchise.

Dayton Moore should have every reason to fear for his job and trading the future for the present can cynically be seen as a strategy to save that job.

 

Hodgie, sure they're playing the long game, but they're also being...well....cheap.

Shields is awesome, has been for years, and will likely be for years to come. Myers has some major flaws, and may never become as good as Shields is.

With even a middling budget, I wonder if they would have made the trade.

Perhaps not, although my first instinct is that they may have made the trade anyways given the depth of their young pitching. They already had Price, Hellickson, Moore, Archer, Cobb and Colome in the fold and all are 27 years old or younger. If they felt comfortable that depth could weather the loss of Shields and allow them to claim the bat of Myers and another potential mid-rotation starter in the process, maybe they still go ahead with the deal regardless of payroll.

While the easy answer for Tampa's pitching woes this year is the loss of Shields, I think they have been hurt more by the injuries to Price and Niemann and the struggles of Hellickson and to a lesser extent, Moore.

"Eno Sarris has a fine interview with Casey Janssen at fangraphs. One thing about collegiate drafts; some of them may have an advantage in understanding heat maps and the like. "

What a great article. Tons of interesting info.

As a side note, I find it interesting that the article talks at length about how Janssen benefitted from having an "elite pitch framer" in Molina....but then forgets to mention that he's been even better since Molina left.