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Game Threads Game Thread — 7/2 vs. Detroit
Whistling tunes, we're kissing baboons in the jungle — it's a knockout.

Doug Fister (6-5, 3.50) versus Chien-Ming Wang (1-1, 5.24), who will be seeking frontier justice. He'll throw the first pitch at 7:07 pm.

Tonight's @BlueJays lineup: Reyes-SS Davis-LF Bautista-RF Rasmus-CF DeRosa-1B Izturis-3B Thole-C Bonifacio-2B Kawasaki-SS

ROOF STATUS: OPEN for tonight's @BlueJays vs. #Tigers game


Posted by #2JBrumfield on Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 04:22 PM EDT.
Game Thread — 7/2 vs. Detroit | 112 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#275614) #
It's true.  Baseball is almost a game without frontiers; no inning limit if the game is tied, and no time limits.  There are, of course, foul lines and fences.

I am pleased to see Thole back behind the plate, despite his poor play since his arrival. 

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China fan - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#275617) #
Anthopoulos is talking prospects with the media today. Interestingly, he says Kevin Pillar has been the biggest surprise for him, and he is "ready to come up if we have a need." That's cool -- Pillar is an intriguing player and I'd like to see what he could do in the majors. Reed Johnson, Part 2, would not be a bad scenario.
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smcs - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#275618) #
Carrying on from the previous thread, Arencibia banged up his shoulder getting run over by Shane Victorino, which is why he isn't behind the plate tonight. He probably shouldn't be behind the plate at all tonight, so Gibby's moves are now pinch hit Arencibia for Boni or Izturis, and then lose the DH (and have no pinch-hitters) or pinch-hit Arencibia for Kawasaki, and leave him at DH, and have no more bench. If the Jays are going to moan about Las Vegas being so far away from Toronto, why are they doing nothing right now? It's a little crazy that an 8th reliever is more important than a 10th bat.
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scottt - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#275619) #
Would make more sense to DH Reyes. No?

Hopefully Davis continues to have fantastic numbers against Fister.
Hitting between 2 big bats should help.


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92-93 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#275620) #
AA plans on having the team play without a bench tonight. There really are no words left for this stupidity.
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Four Seamer - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#275622) #
Why on earth have they not shipped Wagner down, in order to get another bat and glove for the bench for a couple of days?  Or are they counting on him to pinch-hit instead?
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eudaimon - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#275623) #
Having bats on the bench doing nothing is such a waste. I think we need another bullpen arm, I think our boys are getting a bit tired pitching one day in a row. Get a long man up - that guy Weber perhaps? Is Brooks Kieshnick still playing? He could be a bench play and a bullpen arm... that way we hope to one day get a 10 man pen!
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China fan - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#275624) #
"....AA plans on having the team play without a bench tonight...."

Probably not true. I suspect that at least two of the following three -- Lind, Encarnacion, Arencibia -- are available from the bench if necessary. The team says it would "rather not" use them. Doesn't mean that they won't be used if the situation demands it. No need for the Jays to telegraph every detail to the opposing team before the game, however.
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92-93 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#275625) #
"I suspect that at least two of the following three -- Lind, Encarnacion, Arencibia -- are available from the bench if necessary. The team says it would "rather not" use them. Doesn't mean that they won't be used if the situation demands it."

Which is how the other 29 teams run their bullpens. They would rather not use certain guys some nights, but they don't carry an 8th reliever to prevent it.
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smcs - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#275626) #
Would make more sense to DH Reyes. No?

Depends. If Arencibia can hit AND field, yes (he moves to C, Thole to 1B, and the 3 remaining of DeRosa, Boni, Izturis and Kawasaki cover the rest of the infield). If Arencibia can hit, but not field, no (if he pinch-hits for Kawasaki or Boni, Reyes would have to move into the field, and there are no pinch-hitters for the pitcher's spot in the lineup). If Arencibia can do neither, then it doesn't matter (no pinch-hitters, and any injury would result in losing the DH).

The other issue is if the defensive downgrade from Reyes to Kawasaki is worth avoiding the optics of putting the DH in the 9th spot, which it probably isn't. I don't like the process that led to this situation, but this is probably the best lineup for this situation.

Probably not true. I suspect that at least two of the following three -- Lind, Encarnacion, Arencibia -- are available from the bench if necessary.

When is it deemed necessary, though? In the 6th inning, pinch-hitting Encarnacion and Lind for Boni and Kawasaki with runners on base, and either putting EE at 1B, or keeping Kawasaki in the game and losing the DH, or waiting for the bottom of the 9th so none of them would need to take a defensive position?
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John Northey - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#275629) #
I suspect EE and Lind are available to hit in the 9th or extras but otherwise we won't see anyone unless an injury occurs.  I wonder which pitcher(s) are available for defensive purposes if needed.  The Jays of the 80's used Dave Stieb in the outfield once (he was an outfielder in the minors) and often used him and Jimmy Key as pinch runners.  Can't see the Jays today using any major pitchers as a runner or defensive replacement though.

I wonder if AA is pushing for MLB to adopt a 26 or 27 man roster (or 30 or 32).  Even then he might end up with 10 relievers instead of some bench bats.

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greenfrog - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#275633) #
The 2013 Jays were never really built to withstand significant injuries, as the team lacks depth at a number of positions and in the rotation. Fortunately, they've had some surprise performances (Rogers, Kawasaki, Davis) to help keep the team afloat. But the team has lacked the depth and versatility of, say, the Red Sox. The lineups of late have been quite weak, even with the return of Reyes.
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smcs - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#275634) #
Dustin McGowan pinch-ran for Frank Thomas in 2007. I seem to remember plenty of hand-wringing afterwards. Gibby was the manager then, too. I can't see Dickey, Buerhle or Johnson being asked to pinch-run. Rogers would be the most likely. If a reliever is asked to pinch-run (or pinch-hit) for a limping Encarnacion, I will scream.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#275635) #
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Just saw Paul Beeston at Rogers Centre. He said attendance has been "as expected," which should give team payroll flexibility at deadline.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#275637) #
"....The lineups of late have been quite weak...."

Despite all the carping and complaining by fans on this site, it's worth noting that the Jays have won at a .667 pace since June 1, and have been averaging more than 5 runs per game in that period.

Obviously the 11-game winning streak is not a true reflection of the team's abilities, but it's not to be completely dismissed either.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#275638) #
The Jays' lineup is just top-heavy.

EE, Lind, Bautista, Reyes are amongst the best hitters in baseball this year.

Rasmus has been decent.

Cabrera, JPA, and our 2b/3b smorgasbords have been horrible.

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scottt - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#275642) #
Cabrera hasn't been horrible. OPS+ 86 Except for not walking, Arencibia is doing just as expected.

Blanco had an OPS+ of 44 in 15 games, but Thole is at -26 after 9.  Did he leave his favourite bat in Buffalo or something?

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greenfrog - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#275643) #
Top-heavy might be good enough in some other divisions, but it's generally not good enough in the AL East, unless the team's pitching and defense is outstanding. The Jays' shallow lineup was exposed in Boston (I fail to see how making this elementary factual observation is carping). In any event, the lineup has the potential to be quite good if and when everyone is healthy).
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Paul D - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#275644) #
An 86 OPS+ isn't great for a left fielder. 

Something that I think has been lost in the 8th bullpen versus bench - it's not an either or.  Ideally you'd use AAA to have both.  You have a couple of guys with options, say Wagner, Lincoln, Pillar and Negrych, and you shuttle them up and down as needed.  This team has done this in the past with Mike McCoy. 

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92-93 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#275647) #
Way to get ahead, boys, and let's keep on piling on. Huge hit from Colby. This is a game you want to win with Scherzer and Verlander on tap.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#275648) #
Considering that the Jays twice defeated Yu Darvish last month, I'm not even particularly worried by Verlander and Scherzer.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#275649) #
an 86ops+ is awful. what are we talking about? 100 is league average.

and as for the Jays' Offense in the Boston series - 4, 4, 5, and 6 runs. not sure how the offense was "exposed".

It's interesting comparing the breakdown of our offense vs. the rest of the division.

If we use ops+, best to worst, left to right, bench in brackets (top5 bbench only):

TOR: 152, 150, 137, 131, 104, 86, 79, 72, 42 (107, 92, 82, 65, -26)
BOS: 166, 127, 119, 109, 107, 106, 97, 92, 62 (169, 164, 87, 78, 73)
BAL: 201, 126, 114, 110, 104, 100, 88, 70, 58 (144, 119, 103, 61, 0)
TBR: 154, 134, 118, 113, 113, 108, 105, 104, 85 (120, 108, 96, 80, 60)
NYY: 143, 117, 105, 95, 92, 85, 78, 79, 68 (139, 138, 122, 72, 38)
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JB21 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#275650) #
In regards to the attendance, the Jays are now #1 in baseball in increased attendance year over year (+4,427 per game, 177,068 for the season).

They're averaging 31,164 per game which is good for 15th vs. 26,737 per game last year which put them at 20th after 40 home games.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#275651) #
Did the Jays have an inkling before this game that they would have a greater need for the bullpen than the bench?
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#275652) #
an 86ops+ is awful. what are we talking about?

Especially from a left fielder. You'll settle for that if it's someone who makes a big defensive contribution, behind the plate or in the middle infield. But that's just not good enough for LF. Or DH.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#275653) #
Well, nice knowing ya, Wanger.

who's next in the rotation? Weber? McGowan? Nolin?
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timpinder - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#275654) #
So, who takes Wang's next turn in the rotation?
Stroman is on the same schedule and has been looking good.
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China fan - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#275655) #
I'd vote for Weber. He's shown very good consistency at Buffalo, with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in eight games; 29 strikeouts vs 7 walks.
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92-93 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#275656) #
Ideally you get 45 pitches from Perez here so you can consider starting him on Sunday.
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scottt - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#275657) #
I just think there's a gradient between average and terrible/awful. It's bad, just not terribly bad.
What's the adjective for -26? I use unspeakable personally.

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scottt - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#275658) #
So, about the Dickey effect. Maybe it works better with a hard thrower.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#275659) #
No need to decide tonight. DFA Wang, bring up a position player, and worry about Sunday's starter on Saturday.

Detroit's batting line against Wang: .625/.642/1.000, which isn't something you see that often.
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92-93 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#275660) #
Why would you bring up a position player? You have to protect the bullpen arms who are going to be tired after tonight!
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greenfrog - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#275661) #
Uglyone, the bottom five hitters in today's lineup are hitting a collective .210-.220 or so with no power and a poor OBP. Obviously, it's a temporary situation (though how temporary is unclear), but the Jays are missing a lot of offence as a result of injuries and underperformance at some positions.

When I say exposed, I'm thinking of situations like the bases loaded, none out opportunity against a struggling Dempster when Arencibia, Izturis and Bonifacio failed to produce a single run (popup, popup, K) -- a game the Jays would ultimately lose by a couple of runs. Sure, the Jays scored five, but it was a winnable game.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#275662) #
27 runs in our last 5gms, and 4 more already tonight.
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92-93 - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#275663) #
Romero walked 5 guys in his 2nd last start, in case you were wondering.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#275664) #
You have to protect the bullpen arms who are going to be tired after tonight!

True dat. This could go extras, now that Wang is off the hook.
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Hodgie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#275665) #
Why would you bring up a position player? You have to protect the bullpen arms who are going to be tired after tonight!

I blame you for angering the baseball gods tonight.

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scottt - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#275666) #
It's too early to tell.
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#275667) #
I'm thinking it might be Stroman.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#275668) #
Curious. Perez is having some trouble throwing his fastball for strikes, but his slider is making up for it.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#275669) #
AL East CF:

NYY B.Gardner (29): 352pa, .797ops, .345woba, 116wRC+, +15.3uzr/150
TOR C.Rasmus (26): 299pa, .786ops, .341woba, 114wRC+, +9.7uzr/150
BAL A.Jones (27): 359pa, .800ops, .343woba, 114wRC+, -13.6uzr/150
BOS J.Ellsbury (29): 370pa, .766ops, .336woba, 107wRC+, +7.2uzr/150
TBR D.Jennings (26): 342pa, .746ops, .324woba, 108wRC+, -5.0uzr/150
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#275670) #
If .200 is the Mendoza Line, what is .100? Josh Thole wants to know.
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Chuck - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#275671) #
The Womendoza Line?
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#275672) #
"Ideally you get 45 pitches from Perez here so you can consider starting him on Sunday."

yep, looking like the right call. might as well try it. he looks good.

(but what reliever do we call up to fill his spot in the 'pen?)
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#275673) #
I don't think Perez has any potential as a starter - he's a two-pitch guy, and they're generally only effective once through the batting order. But I thoroughly approve of his mission to never allow an earned run ever again, and think it should be encouraged and supported.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#275674) #
pretty sick outing for Stroman tonight: 6.0ip, 6h, 3r, 1bb, 11k, 86pitches

might get another inning, too.

in line, of course, to start on the same day as wang next time through.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#275675) #
Romero walked 5 guys in his 2nd last start, in case you were wondering.

And yet the only starters at Buffalo have been pitching better lately are Weber and (gulp!) Dave Bush. No attractive options there. Ideally, Buehrle and Dickey both work at least 7 IP on friday and Saturday, leaving a deep, well-rested pen to throw a group start at the Twins on Sunday.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#275676) #
Interesting game in Cincinnati tonight.
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smcs - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#275677) #
Aaron Laffey is available. Justin Thomas opted out of his deal in Oakland and is available. He hasn't been terrible in the PCL. Dave Bush? Thad Weber? Man, I wouldn't be surprised if Wang sticks through the All-Star break, given the alternatives.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#275678) #
Jays #1-4 hitters tonight: 6 runs, 5 RBI
Jays #5-9 hitters tonight: 0 runs, 1 RBI
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electric carrot - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#275679) #
You don't see the Cecil/Fielder match-up too often .... nice one there Wilner. 
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#275681) #
Stroman gets two more outs, and one more strikeout. Final line:

6.2ip, 6h, 3er, 1bb, 13k

and the rest of his starts this year, from newest to oldest:

5.0ip, 3h, 0er, 2bb, 4k
5.0ip, 3h, 1er, 1bb, 4k
6.0ip, 3h, 1er, 1bb, 5k
5.0ip, 4h, 1er, 3bb, 8k
5.0ip, 3h, 1er, 1bb, 3k
1.0ip, 7h, 7er, 1bb, 2k
4.0ip, 6h, 2er, 1bb, 5k
5.0ip, 4h, 0er, 0bb, 6k

Aside from that brutal 3rd start, the kid has been pretty much dominant.

His Season Stats: 41.2ip, 10.8k/9, 2.4bb/9, 1.20whip, 3.46era

Minus 1 bad start: 40.2ip, 10.6k/9, 2.2bb/9, 1.03whip, 1.99era
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#275682) #
Fifty years ago today, a famous game was played which didn't resemble tonight's affair at all. Not one little bit. Warren Spahn started for the Braves against Juan Marichal for the Giants, in the Windy Stick. The game was still scoreless in extra innings when SF mgr Al Dark asked his ace if he was tired and wanted to come out. Marichal pointed out that the other guy, also pitching a shutout, was 42 years old. If Spahn was staying in, Juan was staying in too. So they kept at it until Willie Mays finally ended it with a leadoff homer in the bottom of the 16th.

Mays was in the #2 spot in the order that day (McCovey was 3rd, and Felipe Alou was hitting cleanup.) The Braves, of course, had Aaron-Mathews hitting 3-4. Spahn struck out just 2, walked one and allowed 9 hits in his 15.1 - he would go 23-7, 2.60 that year, his last great season. Marichal allowed 8 hits, 4 walks, and fanned 10 in his 16 inning shutout. He would go 25-8, 2.41 with 249 KS.

Neither man received a single Cy Young vote that year. Tough crowd.
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Chuck - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#275683) #
Thole is doing a nice job framing borderline strikes.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#275684) #
I think Jack Morris was right.

This is the best bullpen ever.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#275685) #
Fantastic bullpen. With a bit better starting pitching, the Jays would be right in the thick of things.
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smcs - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#275686) #
Can Warren Spahn start on Sunday?
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#275687) #
The Royals pen actually has been a little better at preventing the other team from scoring - the Jays relievers, however, have had to work almost 100 more innings. There are three NL pens with somewhat better ERAsm and two of them (Milwaukee and Pittsburgh) have been worked just as hard as Toronto's group.

The Braves' pen is probably the best this year, again, but the Jays are certainly right there with them.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#275688) #
Spahnie, alas, is not available. But no worries - the original Dominican Dandy is rested and ready.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#275690) #
bonifacio was safe.
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uglyone - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#275691) #
That hit Kawasaki's leg. He should be on first.

two baserunners taken away from us in the bottom of the 9th.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#275692) #
Crawford grounds out, Abreu strikes out. One more to go.
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Magpie - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#275693) #
No-hitter! Well done, Homer.
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smcs - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#275694) #
Kawasaki went around. That's a foul ball. His foot might have even been outside the batter's box.

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CeeBee - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#275695) #
His foot was on the plate but his bat didn't touch the ball... Umps kinda screwed us over in the 9th.
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Kasi - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#275697) #
Wang screwed us over with the 6 runs allowed in the 2nd. Time to DFA him.
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CeeBee - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#275698) #
At least Wang screwed up in the 2nd which gave some comeback time. Agreed on the DFA...Too bad a four man rotation is a thing of the past.
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hypobole - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#275699) #
AA agrees. Wang has been DFA'd
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Gerry - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#275701) #
Todd Redmond recalled
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greenfrog - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#275702) #
Jays #5-9 hitters tonight went 2 for 20 (1 2B), zero walks, zero RS, one RBI.

Tigers #5-9 hitters went 6 for 20 (2 2B), one walk, 5 RS, 3 RBI.

Tigers win, 7-6. Getting a modicum of production from the bottom half of the lineup matters.
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Mike Forbes - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#275705) #
9 man bullpen time. Who needs a bench?
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#275707) #
With Wang DFA'd after his latest debacle, A.A. calls up another retread from amongst the less than mediocre. With our best two Starters unlikely to be Game-ready this month, isn't it time for A.A. to get off his butt and acquire a Good Starter. It's long past time trying to piece it together hoping someone healthy comes back from the D.L.

Brandon Morrow might not be back this year (he might eventually need surgery)? J.A. Happ might not be as good as he was earlier (he was more than a 5th Starter then)? Ricky Romero might not be even that good?

Marcus Stroman was to be the fastest 2012 pick to the majors. He can Start!, so let him try it here. Every other team tries it, why not Toronto. It's either that or a quality acquisition. You need 6 very good relievers on a good Team. A 7th Relievers is added because of doubt. An 8th Relievers means your G.M. failed at his job - finding good Pitchers.

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hypobole - Tuesday, July 02 2013 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#275709) #
With Wang off the 40 man there is an open spot, since Redmond is already on the 40 man.
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dan gordon - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#275712) #

I'd really like to see instant replay of close calls at 1b like that.  Bonifacio is clearly safe when you slow it down.  Leading off the 9th inning in a 1-run game, that play is huge.  No replay there reminds me of hockey before they had replay for goals.  Seems hard to imagine no replay for goals now, you get used to the replay feature of the officiating very quickly.  That call may have cost the Jays a post season berth, and it is easy to fix if you have replay for the umpires.

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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 02:40 AM EDT (#275713) #
Did anyone else forget International Signing monies are tradeable? If A.A. has $450 K - $500 K left he could use it in acquiring Pitchers/Players. Matt Garza anyone?
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:11 AM EDT (#275715) #
In the 15 Starts our "Garbage Starters" made, they were: 2-6 with 7 ND (Team 4-3). They pitched 58.2 innings (3.9113 per start) but only 6 or more 4 times, so heavy Bullpen use. They amassed 84 hits, 9 HR, 31 BB, 22 SO and a putrid 7.21 ERA, not very good at all. Ortiz was barely a 5th Starter, so his loss to Injury was annoying. Jenkins pitched well 2 Starts (5.0, 8 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO and then 5.0, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO) and then was sent down and I don't understand why.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#275718) #
I just hope the jays FO don't panic and trade away the rest of a weak farm in a Happ like deal - let this current edition sink/swim as is, unless there is some miracle movement back into playoff contention.I think Thad Weber will likely get the Sunday start.
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John Northey - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#275719) #
A tough year for the rotation.
Planned rotation ERA's: 4.59, 5.63, 4.81, 5.21, 12.46
Happ, the #6 guy: 4.91 over 7 starts then beaned
Rogers the swingman: 2.18
Ortiz, the emergency guy: 5.51 then DLed
Nolin, the hotshot kid: 40.50 in 1 start
Jenkins, sort of a kid: 3.60 in 3 starts, sent down due to roster crunch and hit hard in AAA 6.75 ERA in 6 starts
Laffey & Wang, the desperate : 6.75 and 7.13 and dumped

So in summary...
Better than expected: Rogers & Jenkins
As expected: Happ, Ortiz (5 1/2 ERA from minor league free agent is reasonable)
Worse than hoped for but eating innings: Dickey, Buehrle
A lot worse: Morrow, Johnson
Oh god no: Romero & Nolin
Who is shocked: Laffey & Wang

So 2 nice surprises covering a total of 9 starts, 2 no shocks covering 11 starts.  That's 20 starts from 4 guys who were not expected to get a total of 20 all year.
The rest, covering 63 starts, have been disappointments in one way or another.

Basically, we need to ask what happened.  I'd say the entire rotation needs to do the method Cecil and Delabar are doing with weighted balls to try to get some power and health. 

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robertdudek - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#275721) #
Given the injuries to position players, it seems inconceivable that the Jays would continue for a second game with only 9 healthy bats.

But there you are: AA going boldly where no GM has gone before.
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scottt - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#275722) #
There's 2 starts up for grab before the all-star game. Happ could be ready then.
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#275723) #
Happ won't be back until August, according to AA. (other injury updates in that link, too)
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smcs - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#275727) #
I find it hard to believe that Arencibia, Encarnacion or Lind weren't healthy enough to pinch-hit for Thole, Bonifacio or Kawasaki (possibly in that order) in the bottom of the 8th and 9th last night, but they will be healthy enough to play tonight.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#275729) #
I don't know.  A healthy Lind is obviously someone you want pinch-hitting.  A Lind at 60% is not somebody you want pinch-hitting for anyone.  We'll see how he is tonight.
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Wildrose - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#275730) #
I guess this means no more Mandarin Jays broadcasts on Omni.

I'm glad the discussion has moved to the starting pitching in what truly has been this team's biggest downfall all along.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement by Old Gibby regarding Johnson going deep tonight from this story by Davidi.

 
Todd Redmond, slated to start for triple-A Buffalo on Wednesday, was recalled and before the move was announced manager John Gibbons said, “the guy we bring up will be to cover us tomorrow and unless he gets used up pretty good, he’ll start on Sunday."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/wang-rocked-early-often-in-jays-loss-to-tigers/

They are looking at trades, but other teams are waiting to the trade deadline.

That’s one of many reasons why Alex Anthopoulos isn’t sitting on his hands, telling potential trade partners “that with certain players if they’re willing to move now, we’d do something now,” and that for a deal to happen, he’d have to “feel it’s a significant upgrade.”

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John Northey - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#275731) #
I'd agree on the don't do it unless it is a significant upgrade feeling.  Shifting from poor to blah at 2B would be nice but isn't worth spending prospects on imo.  Moving from poor to 'woohoo' though is well worth it.  The question becomes what is AA looking at.  2B, 3B, LF have been under-performing this year as has starting pitching.  So now go watch him trade for another reliever.
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Wildrose - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#275732) #
Actually in the article John, he is referring to getting starting pitching.

Put simply, for the moment the GM is working on the timelines of others, and he’s not interested in taking on any projects. If he does pull off a deal, it will be for someone significant enough to stick in the rotation once Morrow and Happ return from injuries in roughly a month.

“If you’re making a deal you want to hopefully get an impact guy so it doesn’t really impact who’s coming back,” Anthopoulos explained.

Left-hander Cliff Lee, this summer’s trade deadline crown jewel, came to mind when Anthopoulos revealed “I had a club I talked to (Monday) night, they said another week to 10 days” before they’d consider making trades. And with Josh Johnson’s $13.75 million coming off the books next year, the Blue Jays certainly have some wiggle room to handle the financial outlay.

But other, perhaps more, realistic names to consider are Seattle Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, and Chicago White Sox right-hander Jake Peavy (who is currently on the DL), both of whom were targeted by the Blue Jays last off-season and are on teams a few miracles away from legitimate contention.

Ervin Santana makes some sense, too, although it’s difficult to believe the Kansas City Royals would be willing to pull the plug on their season so soon after the bold move to get James Shields last fall, and with the AL Central still within reach.

The negative experience of Sean Nolin, another double-A prospect who failed to make it out of the second inning in his big-league debut May 24, may give the Blue Jays some pause in perhaps bringing Stroman up before his time.

But with a bunch of quality internal arms needing more time – Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are coming behind Morrow and Happ, while Romero progresses – the Blue Jays are essentially standing wounded on one side of a gorge, looking at help on the other side, unsure how best to get there.

 









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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#275733) #
Josh Johnson has pitched pretty well since he returned from the DL in early June- 28.2 innings, 8 walks, 30 strikeouts, 3 HRs.  His BABIP continues to be high (.353 for the year).  He's giving up a few too many line drives but is also inducing more pop-ups than usual.  Is it my imagination or have a disproportionate number of Boni boners occurred with Johnson pitching?  If so, I suggest a name change to Jackson.  Whatever it is, a good deal of the criticism aimed at the starting pitching ought to be redirected to the infield defence which has been pretty poor. The starters FIP/xFIP:

Johnson 3.83/.3.64
Rogers 4.13/4.22
Buehrle 4.43/.4.45
Dickey 4.85/4.52
Morrow 5.44/4.52
Happ 4.49/5.61

The club ought to expect better from Dickey in the second half, but truly if Johnson, Rogers and Buehrle perform at roughly the level suggested by their FIP/xFIP, the rotation should be all right.

Anyways, I really wish Gibbons would stick with Reyes/Kawasaki in the middle of the diamond so that they can develop a rapport defensively.  It seems that the club still has hope that Bonifacio can be an everyday second baseman.

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Alex Obal - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#275738) #
Bonifacio is a free agent after 2014, correct? He's listed as having 4.066 years service on Cot's. Even if your faith gets rewarded, the payoff is short-lived.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#275740) #
I imagine that any moves by AA will be made with a view to both 2013 and 2014, and possibly beyond. The team still has a chance at making the playoffs this year, but it's not a great chance, given (1) the competition for the division title (the real prize) and the wild card slots (there is a strong possibility that only one WC team will be an AL East team, and the Jays are well off the pace), (2) the fact that half the season has elapsed, and (3) the persisting weaknesses on the roster (pitching, offense and defense), the significant strengths of the roster notwithstanding.

The ideal moves would strengthen the roster beyond this year. There isn't much point in emptying the system for Garza and Utley, only to have them (and JJ) depart after the season.
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uglyone - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#275741) #
"Given the injuries to position players, it seems inconceivable that the Jays would continue for a second game with only 9 healthy bats."

Scored 14 runs the last 2 games against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball with 9 healthy bats.
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Four Seamer - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#275742) #

Scored 14 runs the last 2 games against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball with 9 healthy bats.

And perhaps with 10 or 11 healthy bats, they might have scored the 15th and 16th runs they needed to actually win both of these games, which is still the point of the exercise as I understand it.

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92-93 - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#275744) #
"There isn't much point in emptying the system for Utley"

I thought the Phillies would be happy to receive Nolin & Pillar?
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scottt - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#275745) #
“If you’re making a deal you want to hopefully get an impact guy so it doesn’t really impact who’s coming back,” Anthopoulos explained.

I don't get this impact guy who doesn't impact anyone. What does that mean?
Somebody good enough to stick when Happ returns would seriously impact Happ, no?
You could put Happ in the pen but then you have to impact a reliever, no?


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China fan - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#275747) #
"....And perhaps with 10 or 11 healthy bats, they might have scored the 15th and 16th runs...."

And in order to get the 10th or 11th healthy bat, which pitcher should they have demoted and lost for 10 games or longer? The Jays only had a chance to win last night because of the amazing 7.1 innings from the bullpen (just the latest of many such marathon performances from the bullpen this year). The bullpen is the only weapon that gives the Jays a chance to win games when their starting pitchers are as mediocre or dreadful as they often are. Weakening that weapon, in order to promote a minor leaguer to sit on the bench and perhaps get -- at best -- one plate appearance in a game, is not the best way to deal with a couple of minor injuries to Lind and Encarnacion.
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Four Seamer - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#275748) #

And in order to get the 10th or 11th healthy bat, which pitcher should they have demoted and lost for 10 games or longer?

Perhaps the one who was credited with the loss last night and still possesses options. 

 

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uglyone - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#275749) #
Starters By Month

APRIL

1) Dickey: 6gs, 6.0ip/gs, 4.50era, 4.65fip, 4.60xfip, 4.53siera
2) J.Happ: 5gs, 5.6ip/gs, 3.86era, 4.03fip, 4.85xfip, 4.48siera
3) Morrow: 6gs, 5.4ip/gs, 5.29era, 5.07fip, 4.84xfip, 4.52siera
4) Buerhle: 5gs, 5.7ip/gs, 6.35era, 5.43fip, 4.47xfip, 4.34siera
5) Johnson: 4gs, 4.9ip/gs, 6.86era, 4.64fip, 4.38xfip, 4.25siera
6) Laffey: 1gs, 2.2ip/gs, 6.75era, 8.69fip, 10.27fip, 12.14siera


MAY

1) Buerhle: 6gs, 6.5ip/gs, 4.89era, 4.51fip, 4.40xfip, 4.46siera
2) Dickey: 6gs, 6.5ip/gs, 5.82era, 5.13fip, 4.38fip, 4.49siera
3) Morrow: 4gs, 5.5ip/gs, 6.14era, 5.97fip, 4.16xfip, 4.24siera
4) Jenkins: 3gs, 5.0ip/gs, 3.60era, 4.13fip, 4.67xfip, 4.67siera
5) R.Ortiz: 3gs, 4.8ip/gs, 3.77era, 6.13fip, 6.48xfip, 6.52siera
6) E.Rogers: 1gs, 3.1ip/gs, 0.00era, 3.36fip, 4.21xfip, 4.00siera
7) J.Happ: 2gs, 2.5ip/gs, 10.80era, 7.06fip, 9.88xfip, 9.41siera
8) R.Romero: 1gs, 2.1ip/gs, 12.46era, 8.37fip, 6.35xfip, 6.08siera
9) S.Nolin: 1gs, 1.1ip/gs, 40.50era, 15.06fip, 9.54xfip, 7.24siera


JUNE

1) Dickey: 5gs, 6.8ip/gs, 3.71era, 4.92fip, 4.70xfip, 4.60siera
2) Rogers: 5gs, 6.0ip/gs, 2.43era, 4.17fip, 3.47xfip, 3.69siera
3) Buerhle: 6gs, 6.0ip/gs, 3.50era, 3.56fip, 4.49xfip, 4.53siera
4) Johnson: 5gs, 5.7ip/fs, 4.08era, 3.27fip, 3.14xfip, 3.37siera
5) C.Wang: 4gs, 5.5ip/gs, 5.24era, 4.85fip, 4.05xfip 4.08siera
6) R.Ortiz: 1gs, 2.0ip/gs, 18.00era, 11.06fip, 7.38xfip, 4.08siera


JULY

1) Dickey: 1gs, 7.0ip/gs, 2.57era, 4.21fip, 3.96xfip, 4.32siera
2) C.Wang: 1gs, 1.2ip/gs, 32.40era, 11.46fip, 5.36xfip, 4.49siera


April was awful.

May was hilariously horrific.

June wasn't great, but it was the only month where we've had anything resembling an MLB quality starting staff. 4 good but not great starters plus a 5th starting spot that was pretty bad.

Dickey, Buehrle, and Johnson seem to have righted the ship as of now, and Rogers is starting to look legit.

Morrow and Happ are both gone for at least another month, and there's no guarantee they'll be any good when they get back. I have no confidence in Happ at all, and my confidence in Morrow is wavering.

I'm resigned to the fact that none of Dickey, Johnson, Buehrle, and Rogers are going to be aces for us the rest of the way, but I'm getting fairly comfortable that they'll at least be solid. But if that's the case, I don't think we can afford a black hole in the 5 spot, even for a month. If I were AA, I'd be doing my damndest to add another legit quality MLB starter asap.
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Alex Obal - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#275750) #
I'm resigned to the fact that none of Dickey, Johnson, Buehrle, and Rogers are going to be aces for us the rest of the way

I'm with you on Johnson and Buehrle.
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Wildrose - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#275751) #
"Whatever it is, a good deal of the criticism aimed at the starting pitching ought to be redirected to the infield defence which has been pretty poor. "

I think this is only partially true. If you look at the starters as a whole ( not the defacto opening day rotation) to this date , they've been pretty poor.
If you use FIP or xFIP in an attempt to negate the effects of defence, sadly the numbers remain abysmal. The starters as a group rank 14 out of 15 in terms of FIP in the A.L. and dead last in xFIP. They are last in runs allowed and second from the bottom in ERA. Obviously in the big picture it's the serious run of injuries that has caused this fiasco and the lack of adequate replacements.

I do think there are perhaps some reason for improvement with a healthy staff moving forwards and Reyes and Lawrie returning, but make no mistake , the starters as an entire group have been substandard.
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China fan - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#275752) #
"....Perhaps the one who was credited with the loss last night and still possesses options...."

Wagner has a WHIP of 1.09 and an ERA of 2.45, and he's holding the opposition to a BA of .220. He's been one of the better relievers on the team since he arrived. He was credited with the loss last night because of a single, a bunt, a sacrifice fly and a dinky infield hit. I think it's quite defensible for the Jays to decide that they don't want to demote one of the team's better relievers, a guy who is often used in high-leverage situations, in order to promote a minor-leaguer to sit on the bench and perhaps get a 9th inning plate appearance in a game or two.
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92-93 - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#275753) #
Wagner is not one of the team's better relievers. That distinction belongs to Janssen, Delabar, Loup, and Cecil.

"in order to promote a minor-leaguer"

I love how you frame this, trying to denigrate the potential call-up by labeling him a minor leaguer, ignoring that's exactly what Neil Wagner and Juan Perez are.

"to sit on the bench and perhaps get a 9th inning plate appearance in a game or two."

As opposed to your 8th reliever, who sits in the bullpen and picks up low leverage innings.

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Four Seamer - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#275754) #
While it certainly would have been helpful to have pinch-hitting options available in the 8th or 9th last night, that's not the only benefit that an extra bench body would have generated - what exactly would Gibbons have done if one of his position players went down with an injury last night?  Since none of JPA, EE and Lind were even deemed capable of pinch-hitting for the bottom three in the lineup during the final innings, they surely could not have played the field without risking serious setbacks.  Had that happened, the marginal difference in value between Lincoln and Wagner over 10 days (or less, should someone go on the DL and Wagner be recalled) would hardly be worth mentioning.  Anyway, I thought one of the key advantages of having surplus depth in one area is to use that surplus depth to compensate for weaknesses elsewhere.  If playing with only nine bats isn't a weakness, I don't know what is.
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China fan - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#275755) #
"....As opposed to your 8th reliever, who sits in the bullpen and picks up low leverage innings..."

Perez was deemed the 8th reliever by most people here, yet his innings have been anything but "low leverage."

"...labeling him a minor leaguer, ignoring that's exactly what Neil Wagner and Juan Perez are..."

Not exactly. Wager and Perez are a lot more valuable to the Jays than a Negrych or a Jimenez.

"...Wagner is not one of the team's better relievers. That distinction belongs to Janssen, Delabar, Loup, and Cecil..."

I agree that those 4 pitchers are better than Wagner. But I'd put him ahead of Oliver and McGowan and Perez at this point.



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92-93 - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#275756) #
Which still puts him in the bottom half, and not one of their better relievers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=3&season1=2013&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

Over the last 30 days, only McGowan has been worse than Wagner via FIP & xFIP. Same for the last 14 days.

"Not exactly. Wager and Perez are a lot more valuable to the Jays than a Negrych or a Jimenez."

You know this how? I was the first person suggesting that trying to shoehorn Negrych in the lineup because of his hot start was absurd, but you can't possibly pretend to have a clue as to how those two players would perform if given MLB playing time.
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China fan - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#275758) #
".... you can't possibly pretend to have a clue as to how those two players would perform...."

That's true, and it's true for all of us, in all of our speculation and debate about what the Jays should or should not be doing. A useful reminder of the limits of prediction.
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#275760) #
The biggest problem with Wagner is that he's a one-inning reliever in a bullpen full of one-inning relievers. In an average game, where you get 5-6 innings out of the starter, there's limited room for him; when the starter gets blown out early, or the game goes to extra innings, he's not much use because he can't eat up any innings.

And that's compounded by the status of Dustin McGowan, whose status seems to be unclear. Whether it's health or performance, Gibbons seems reluctant to use him. You'd think he'd at least be a candidate for mopup work, but he was nowhere to be seen yesterday. Granted, he pitched on Sunday - but is he of value to the club if can only pitch once or twice a week?
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uglyone - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#275762) #
Trying to analyze recent bullpen usage without a bias going in from the start. Just gonna look at exactly how well and how much each reliever has been used the last 10gms.

CL Janssen: 1.0ip, 1h, 1xbh, 0bb, 0k, 0r, 0.0k/9, 0.0bb/9, 1.00whip, 0.00era
SU Delabar: 4.0ip, 3h, 1xbh, 1bb, 10k, 0r, 22.5k/9, 2.3bb/9, 1.00whip, 0.00era
SU B.Cecil: 4.0ip, 5h, 2xbh, 3bb, 6k, 1r, 13.5k/9, 6.8bb/9, 2.00whip, 2.25era
MR J.Perez: 7.2ip, 5h, 0xbh, 2bb, 9k, 1r, 10.6k/9, 2.4bb/9, 0.91whip, 0.00era
MR A.Loup: 5.1ip, 4h, 1xbh, 0bb, 4k, 1r, 6.8k/9, 0.0bb/9, 0.75whip, 1.69era
MR McGowan: 4.0ip, 3h, 1xbh, 1bb, 5k, 1r, 11.3k/9, 2.3bb/9, 1.00whip, 2.25era
MR Oliver: 3.0ip, 2h, 0xbh, 1bb, 4k, 2r, 12.0k/9, 3.0bb/9, 1.00whip, 6.00era
MR NWagner: 3.2ip, 5h, 0xbh, 2bb, 1k, 3r, 2.5k/9, 4.9bb/9, 1.91whip, 7.36era

Perez seems to have taken over the longman role - and deservedly so.

After the setup guys Delabar and Cecil, it's looking like McGowan and Loup are the go to righty and lefty. That leaves Oliver and Wagner as the third short relief lefty and righty - i.e. the least valuable guys in the 'pen.

Of those two, Wagner is both pitching worse lately, and has options.....so I'd agree with 92-93, Wagner seems to be the obvious demotion.

What's interesting is that the use of the 8th reliever has mainly resulted in less usage of 1 reliever - our best reliever - Casey Janssen. This is probably not ideal. We should use our best reliever more, and not worry about using him only in save situations. Forcing ourselves to use Janssen in the spots where Wagner was used the last 10gms may have won us an extra game or two, literally.

On a sidenote, though, I wouldn't mind seeing our bullpen innings leader (Cecil) get some more rest going forward. Not sure if it's just a blip or not but he's been a wee bit less sharp the last 10gms.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#275763) #
Yep, I agree - McGowan in his present usage is pretty much useless - I think the club erred in bringing him up & adding him to the 40 roster before he was reliable - should have kept him in buffalo and tried to extend him to 2/3 innings - Maybe, AA was influenced by the contract he give him & desperately wanted to get some usage.
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Paul D - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#275764) #
I don't think that the club had the option of leaving McGowan in AAA without passing him through waivers.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#275765) #
Actually, McGowan was taken off the 40 man roster earlier this year, so he didn't need to pass through waivers - now he does as he's back on the roster.
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uglyone - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#275766) #
pretty sure he was just put on the 60day DL, not taken off the 40man.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, July 03 2013 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#275767) #
Thanks, My bad then
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