Alot of money to pay for someone who may or may not help your pitching staff. Glad we aren't the ones signing that deal.

Hanigan would be nice, failing that let's just try and find another molina.

There is a lot of new money in the game for teams to spend.  Prepare to be shocked this winter.

Its not the money that shocked me, its the player. He has so many question marks with the PEDs, the injuries, and the fact that he really isn't a terribly good catcher defensively. You have to really trust that his on base skills will hold up as his bat slows to be willing to hand him that contract.

Ruiz sure dropped off last year - from a 149 OPS+ to a 90.  He has tested positive twice now for amphetamines (via taking Adderall) and that cost him the first 25 games of 2013.  That would make any club very nervous seeing that drop off.  Lifetime he is at 105 for OPS+.  His age, entering his age 35 season, sure suggests a 3 year deal could be a mistake at nearly $9 mil a year.  FanGraphs crowdsourcing had a 2 year $17 mil expectation so this is basically one more guaranteed year which isn't shocking given many teams are after catching it seems.

I suspect we'll find catchers will be the hardest hit by the amphetamines rule. Players had been taking them for decades as a way to survive a long season.  Before their use appears to have taken hold (50's/60's) catchers were light hitting and rarely played 120+ games.

120+ for catchers...
Pre-1950: 143 or less than 3 a year
1950-1969: 108 or 10.8 a year
1970-1993: 231 or 9.6 a year
1994-2003: 89 or 8.9 a year
2004-2012: 92 or 10.2 a year
2013: 7 (included JPA)

Huh.  A bit different than I expected.  Tried dividing up the years to see if there were patterns but it seems not.  The only clear divider is pre-1950 when few catchers would go through a full season and back pre-any drugs as we know them today.  If the sport gets fully clean (or close to it) I suspect we'll see well under 10 catchers a year getting those 120+ games in but so far it hasn't really shown other than last year.

Oops, change that 1950-1969 to 5.4 a year ... divided by 10 instead of 20.  Doh!

Hrm...should've factored in number of teams too.  If you do that (nearly double the teams today as pre-1950) it isn't as big but still significant.  Will have to do a full study on this sometime.

Its not the money that shocked me, its the player. He has so many question marks with the PEDs, the injuries, and the fact that he really isn't a terribly good catcher defensively. You have to really trust that his on base skills will hold up as his bat slows to be willing to hand him that contract.

The PEDs issue is somewhat misunderstood. He's taken a common stimulant drug that is given to kids who have ADHD. Apparently he now has a medical prescription for the medication.

He's actually quite a good defensive catcher by most advanced defensive metrics, above average historically in terms of controlling the running game and blocking pitches in the dirt. His pitch framing numbers have been mediocre , but he does have a great reputation of calling a game which is very hard to measure.

Offensively he has been very good and is only two years removed from an outstanding  season in terms of hitting.

 The problem for Toronto is that you probably would have to outbid Philly to sign him and guarantee a fourth year. You would've been looking at somewhere in the range of 4 years / 36 million to do that overall, and at age 35 that's an iffy bet.

"Hanigan would be nice, failing that let's just try and find another molina."

A search for another Molina could lead you to the man himself. You don't see much chatter about free agent Jose Molina, but if the Rays are willing to run him out there as often as they did the last two years I'm willing to trust their advanced defensive metrics that counter his bad hitting.

If the Jays can get a solid second baseman who can hit then Molina behind the plate mixed with Thole should be OK.  8 hitters and 1catcher should be survivable.

Apparently he now has a medical prescription for the medication.

Ruiz may well legitimately suffer from ADHD, but it is interesting to note that baseball players as a group are diagnosed with ADHD at a much higher rate than the rest of us. Seems that more than a few doctors are willing to say what needs to be said to get their clients access to Adderall.

To be clear, I knew that the "PED" issue wasn't steroids. I just believe that Adderall is a PED every bit as effective as steroids (albeit in a different way).

Amphetamine is listed under the banned substances list for MLB. While it may be is easier to get an ADHD diagnosis and prescription than it is to throw a baseball, I am personally annoyed that MLB is turning a blind eye to this.

Approximately 10% of all baseball players have prescriptions for Adderall- (for comparison the incidence of ADHD requiring treatment is less than 2% of adult population). This is essentially legitimizing PED use in a league that had to go before congress for PED abuse previously.

Its not like there aren't risks associated with abuse- (heart problems, renal failure, psychosis etc...).

Chuck beat me too it.

Much like gambling in the 10s, cocaine in the 80s, and steroids in the 90s baseball is just putting the blinders on and ignoring it.

Its not like there aren't risks associated with abuse- (heart problems, renal failure, psychosis etc...).

Interesting debate, but isn't it better that it be medically prescribed to prevent these very issues than to be taken without any medical input?

So really to be clear,  your against players using Adderall , and there by against Ruiz as a player.

This is a fair position, but it's not the same  as saying he can't hit or defend which you alluded to earlier.

A search for another Molina could lead you to the man himself. You don't see much chatter about free agent Jose Molina, but if the Rays are willing to run him out there as often as they did the last two years I'm willing to trust their advanced defensive metrics that counter his bad hitting.

Sure.  But you don't need to trust the Rays' proprietary defensive metrics.  Much has been published on Molina's excellence at pitch-framing, with run values attached.  Molina is not as durable nor quite as good defensively as Bob Boone, but hits like him.  Perfectly fine for 200-250 PAs per year.

I am against any player taking adderall. but particularly somebody who had to be busted before requesting a prescription. To me that looks an awful lot like a cheater and history has shown that more often than not these guys are repeat offenders. So i think you have to factor that into the contract. I never said Ruiz's offense was poor, just that his bat was likely to slow down. as for his defense he is a below average picture framer, has never thrown a runner that a terribly good rate, and seem to be a decent picture blocker. while that may be an upgrade over JP it doesn't make him Pudge Rodriguez.

Also, it is absolutely better to take them with medical consultation provided that it is informed. however there's very little in the way of Epidemiology on this subject and at present pills are being handed out like smarties even to children.

picture blocker

Do veteran catchers stand in front of TVs in the clubhouse to prevent young impressionable rooks from seeing images that they should not see?

Stupid SIRI. my apologies.

I do like that someone bad at hanging pictures is a poor defender

I keep getting blocked, maybe I'll try on my IPad.

I think MLB is aware of some of the concerns around this drug, so they've recently implemented a 3 man expert review panel to examine every application, so no it's not really like handing out smarties.

A problem with comparing ADHD rates with baseball and the general population is that this condition is widely undiagnosed, particularly in adults.

"There is some uncertainty regarding the prevalence of ADHD in adults. Dr. Ari Tuckman, a psychiatrist who specializes in ADHD and who formerly served on the board of the Attentive Deficit Disorder Association, says the latest figures show that five percent of American adults have ADHD. But other experts say that ADHD often goes undiagnosed, especially in adults who have suffered with a variety of symptoms for a long time but never received proper care. ADHD sufferers often experience other mental health problems, like depression, anxiety, and drug and alcohol addiction, making the ADHD more difficult to find, especially by doctors unfamiliar with the disease.

According to Dr. Edward M. Hallowell, a child and adult psychiatrist who served on the Harvard Medical School faculty from 1983 to 2004, approximately 80 percent of adult-ADHD is undiagnosed. As such, Dr. Hallowell wasn’t surprised to learn that eight percent of Major League ballplayers had been diagnosed with ADHD. Professional athletes have greater access to good medical care than does the average American adult, making proper diagnoses more likely."

Another issue is that individuals with ADHD may be attracted to sports.

"Dr. Hallowell pointed out that adolescent boys with ADHD tend to gravitate to activities that demand a great deal of physical energy and that such physical exertion produces chemicals in the brain that help with focus. Dr. Tuckman echoed a similar point, noting that boys with ADHD who are otherwise good athletes will play sports as a way to build self-esteem. That may lead, somewhere down the road, to a higher incidence of ADHD among those who ultimately become professional athletes."

http://www.baseballnation.com/2012/6/29/3104332/is-there-an-adhd-epidemic-in-major-league-baseball

Listen this is a very complex issue and I understand concerns about this drugs use, but I think it's better that it be medically prescribed and controlled, rather than being driven underground.

Sorry for all the blank posts - getting some sort of glitch on my browser.

The Free Agent Catching market has too many catchers no one wants or couldn't afford. A.A. has approximately $16.0 - $18.0 MM to spend on acquisitions. Trading Arencibia increases that to $18.8 - $20.8 MM. Not very much for all his needs. Bautista's ($14.0 MM) tradable if the right deal presents itself.

MLB Trade Rumors App is reporting Tanaka will be made available before the end of December.

If all Rogers makes available to AA is $16-20 mil this winter then they are not being good owners.  The Jays saw a clear increase in both TV and attendance last year on pure hope.  MLB increases shared revenue by $30 mil per team for 2014.  Those are two powerful sources of income that suggest the Jays should be able to increase payroll by as much as $50 million without reducing profits from last year imo, especially when you consider the Jays have better ratings than nearly all US based teams (500k viewers per game vs most US teams being extremely happy to get 150k households averaging around 2 viewers per household) and they are signing deals for crazy dollars.

I suspect AA is trying to stay cheap this winter to start, then will ask for more cash if a good deal comes down.  Hopefully Tanaka qualifies, hopefully someone else will too (McCann, Garza, whoever).  My big wishlist though is a solid 2B and a solid CA who can between them average a 100 OPS+ as that would help a lot, and be decent defensively (league average).  Get that and the pitching we have now should be enough with any luck.  Of course, given the Jays luck lately they could add Tanaka, Garza, McCann and Cano and they'd still be sub-500 somehow.

What about last year's investment? The revenue increases were expected then and they were ahead of the curve in squad investment. Going from a $90m payroll to a $150m payroll in two years? Bad ownership!!

But that is all sunk cost now -- if the only moves the team makes is dumping JPA for a warm body and putting Goins at 2B, then they're likely to be better than in 2013. They'll win more games, but I'd bet on revenue decreases, as there's no hype... even with a big move or two, I suspect a portion of the fan-base probably has hype fatigue from last season. Maybe it is a failure of the imagination buy the road from here to the post-season looks like one of three routes: spending big on McCann and a starter, an off-season similar to that of the 2012 Red Sox, or a Pythagorean Fluke a la the 2012 O's. 2014 will be more fun 2013 almost certainly, but for the majority of fans that won't be enough...

Tim Hudson has signed with the Giants, and last weekend I made cabbage borscht.  Long time Bauxites might see the connection- Hall Watch. 

Hudson's signing got me thinking about the great pitchers who arrived in the early aughts- Hudson, Halladay, Johan Santana and Cliff Lee.  Technically, Halladay made his first appearance in 1998 and Hudson in 1999, but I still think of all of them as contemporaries.  Halladay has been the best of them (66 BBRef WAR, 68 fangraphsWAR) and pretty clearly qualified as of now.  I don't think that it is likely that he will be Blylevened but youneverknow.  As for the other three, Santana had a great peak but probably not enough to qualify, and Hudson and Lee have substantial work to do but might make it with sustained performance into their 40s. 

The 2013 pre-approved payroll was scheduled to go up to $105.0 MM (that's all anyone will admit to) until the Peavy deal fell through, and the Miami deal exploded. The actual increase was $35,538,600.00, not an excessive increase.

The Luxury Tax Threshold for 2014 is $189.0 MM, which is only $55.0 MM above projected 2014 salary of $134.0 MM (with no additions or subtractions). Without being in the Postseason, let alone the World Series, there's no way Rogers approves Tax spending now.

With Arencibia on the way out, we are clearing $2.5 - $3.0 MM in salary. Trading Bautista ( and ?) for a Front Line Starter clears $14.0 MM plus $? going out minus $? coming back in. However, trading Bautista means needing significant offense from Catcher and Second Base.

I doubt Bautista gets moved. It's possible, but unlikely.

Which team is going to trade a top of the rotation starter for Bautista?

Who knows?  You'd probably get a lot more trading Encarnacion.  I wouldn't be inclined to trade either, but if a team has a powerful hankering for a right-handed slugger who also reaches base and is willing to pay dearly for it...I don't get the fascination with an ace starter.  If the Royals (say) felt that they really needed an additional bat of this quality and also felt that they could turn around Arencibia, and were willing to put together a package including Salvador Perez, you would want to listen.

Curiously,  BBRef lists Jose Bautista's most similar hitter as Edwin Encarnacion.

To me it isn't what the Jays spent in the past vs today but what they could spend vs the league as a whole.  Lets check some teams just to do a reality check for both me and everyone else.

At the moment (without factoring in free agents) only Detroit and the Dodgers are over $150 million in payroll but that will change soon I'm certain.  Last year (via http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/) 2 teams cracked $200 mil [Yankees/Dodgers] and 2 more cracked $150 [Phillies, Red Sox] with 2 more in the $140's [Tigers & Angels].  Fewer than I expected.  The Jays were listed at $127,777,800 (their figures do not factor in cash sent to other clubs or coming from other clubs it seems).  Just barely over 50% spent on pitchers btw (50.18%).

So the Jays really are closer than I thought to the upper crust outside of the Yankees/Dodgers and $150 mil would put them right there with the Tigers & Red Sox.  That is, assuming no change occurs for everyone else this winter due to the massively expanded TV revenue (national $30 mil per club, local who knows but way up for many).

I did say Bautista and ? for a Front Line Starter. Bautista is a huge asset, just not a prime asset. Very few power hitters are available at any one time, but especially this offseason. He plays good defense, and has a great contract. Anyone needing a power hitter with a good Starter they are willing to trade is a trade partner.

A.A. can say all he wants about Morrow, Hutchison and all the other starters available in-house, but there are major issues there.
1)No one is even close to being able to pitch 200.0 plus innings.
2)They aren't that good when healthy.
3)Spring Training is much too late to find out you need a Top Starter.

A.A. has never operated at this level before. The "live or die" career point. He must realize Beeston's his only protection from this point on.

Moises Sierra is taking 1B practise in Winter Ball, to increase his versatility for next season as our 4th OF. Melky can play CF well, if needed. This let's A.A. go after a 2B-SS-3B Middle Infielder type.

A.A. has a tendency to settle for the best of what's left in filling a need. McCann, Saltalamacchia an possiblely Navarro look to be suitable acquisitions. What A.A. gets, won't be this good.

At some point the dominoes start falling, and it's easy to miss out.

John N,

Your work about Runs Scored and win-loss record (on the previous thread) was great.  I didn't get to it in a timely manner. Did you have to go through game logs or is there a source for our record based on Runs scored.  Could you either point out the source and/or do the same exercise using Runs Allowed?

 

One comment/quibble was that you appeared to assume the tipping point was 4 vs 5 runs, whereas I would have gone with 5 vs 6.  I haven't analysed it, but always felt to beat the BoSox and Yanks you'd want to score >5 runs rather than >4.... 

I guess that's a convoluted way of asking if you could provide the record in games where 5 runs were allowed, as well as when 6 were allowed?  In your post, you showed that we were 7-8 when scoring 5 runs and 40-10 when scoring 6+ runs.

Thanks

Shaker - no problem, just grabbed it from Baseball Reference.  Link is here.

So, record when allowing....
0 or 1 runs: 20-0
2 or 3 runs: 30-12
4-6 runs: 21-39 note: win% was better at 6 than 5 and better at 5 than 4...weird but small sample size
7-8 runs: 3-20
9+ runs: 0-17

Breakdown of 4/5/6...
4: 8-16
5: 8-15
6: 5-8

The two extremes are odd - you expect to have one heartbreak loss 1-0, or one wild win 15-10 or something but neither happened last year.  The killer though is that sub 400 winning percentage for 4/5/6 runs allowed I'd say.

For runs scored, agreed a big divider was 5 vs 6 runs but 6 vs 7 was an even bigger one.
0 or 1 run scored: 0-22
2 or 3 runs: 15-32
4 or 5 runs: 19-24
6 runs: 11-8
7+ runs: 29-2 (perfect with 10+ runs scored)

Clearly the Jays have a few holes.  You want a much better winning percentage when scoring 6 runs, and to be closer to 500 when scoring 4/5 runs.  You also want to be winning at least half your games when allowing 4 runs.

For comparison, 1993...
Allowing
0-1 runs: 29-0
2-3 runs: 28-8
4-6 runs: 28-30 (11-9 allowing 4)
7 runs: 5-8
8+: 5-21 - actually a heck of a lot better than I expected

Scoring
0-1 runs: 1-16
2-3 runs: 12-29
4-6 runs: 37-16 (15-6 scoring 4)
7-9 runs: 27-6
10+ runs: 18-0

And that shows how you win.

And so it begins. Josh Johnson signs with San Diego.

Going through the Top 50 Free Agent list MLB Trade Rumors puts out, the list of Pitchers is inaccurate, if still valid. Mashiro Tanaka won't be available until late December. Hiroki Kuroda, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon and Bronson Arroyo will only sign with one team or will retire. Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Feldman, Dan Haren, Phil Hughes, Paul Maholm and others aren't much if any better than the herd of in-house options Toronto has. Only Ervin Santana, Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimienez are good enough to consider adding to this Team.

Drunk Jays Fans site has links to and comment on A.A.'s Prime Time Sports and TSN Drive interviews. Some items of interest there if you're interested.

Josh Johnson signed for $8 million on a 1 year contract with the Padres.  Petco is a pretty soft pillow.  I guess the contract price suggests that other teams would have probably made the same QO decision that the Jays did. 

And so it begins. Josh Johnson signs with San Diego.   At least now we know which team Johnson will have an ERA under 3.00 for next season. Good move on his part going to that stadium and division while getting a pretty decent base salary for one year. That was his best shot at recouping value.   With that said, if a starter coming off injury and a terrible season can get $8M guaranteed, then I'm going to guess that AA's big moves will be on the trade market. Free agency is going to be very overpriced and I can't picture AA in the middle of a bidding war.

I had a quick look at the Padres performance last year.  The hitting, fielding and relief pitching were all fine.  The starting pitching was pretty much horrible.  With Cashner, Stults, Tyson Ross, Kennedy and now Josh Johnson, it is likely to be significantly better in 2014.

The Johnson deal is quite interesting.

He has an $8 million dollar base salary, with a $1.25  million incentive for making 26 starts.

No doubt he also took a salary reduction to pitch in a very benevolent pitching environment ( I believe Magpie did a study several years ago in which Petco historically is the toughest hitting environment ever measured in the MLB) of his choosing, which is close to his hometown of Vegas.

Tim Dierkes of MLB rumors has the discount at about 20%.

It seems possible Johnson and agent Matt Sosnick could have gotten close to that $10MM mark had they focused on the highest bidder, but the pitcher preferred San Diego for personal reasons.  The Padres got a discount approaching 20%, just for being the Padres. 

Great job by Johnson's agent. At some point it would be interesting to hear what the Jays thought process on not offering the QO to Johnson was - too much money, questions about his health, did he simply say he'd rather move on ?

I've always wished Pat Gillick would write a tell all book about his career, will we ever find out what went down in this situation?

That is a great result for Johnson in more ways than one - apart from the effect that the park and defense should have on his numbers, San Diego is a phenomenal city with enormous lifestyle benefits.  If it's true he did take a discount to sign there, I can certainly see why. 

San Diego is a phenomenal city with enormous lifestyle benefits.

Benefits that may matter little to a dude who calls Las Vegas home.

Interesting at SI - they list the worst (by sOPS+ it seems) at each position.  The Jays 'won' at 2: 2B for the majors with a 57, suggested solution is a trade for All-Star and Gold Glove winner Brandon Phillips, who seems likely to be dealt by Cincinnati and in LF (AL only) where they figure the Jays will just stick with Melky Cabrera.  The Yankees, surprisingly given they were contenders, 'led' at 1B, 3B, RF and DH.  At catcher the Marlins got a 52 sOPS+ while the White Sox got a 60 - the Jays were tied for 3rd worst in MLB at 66 with Seattle.

Tim Dierkes of MLB rumors has the discount at about 20%.

Dierkes speculates that Johnson could have gotten $10M -- because that's what an injured Ben Sheets once got -- and that he took less to pitch in SD. His statement "The Padres got a discount approaching 20%, just for being the Padres" is pure conjecture presented as fact.

It isn't pure conjecture at all when we know Johnson turned down bigger offers to sign in San Diego.

If there is evidence of other offers, then I stand corrected and apologize. Dierkes would have done well to mention those in his piece rather than the irrelevant Sheets contract from years ago.

Johnson may be particularly affected by cold weather.  He looked very good in spring training last year, and was pretty bad immediately upon arrival in Toronto with his worst game being in Detroit in April in very cold conditions. 

If there is evidence of other offers, then I stand corrected and apologize. Dierkes would have done well to mention those in his piece rather than the irrelevant Sheets contract from years ago.

Dierkes has done a lot of work on market pricing modeling with free agents and arbitration awards on his site, so I do think he has a pretty good handle on the market. If anything I find him a tad conservative.

As well in context , early returns on this years free agent signings have generally been lucrative, so I find his valuation quite accurate.

Johnson may be particularly affected by cold weather.  He looked very good in spring training last year, and was pretty bad immediately upon arrival in Toronto with his worst game being in Detroit in April in very cold conditions.

I'll always remember that game Mike. The conditions were atrocious and I thought the game should have been stopped. Johnson didn't look to pleased being out there, can't say that I blame him.

"Getting a discount" is not necessarily the same thing as "not seeking the highest bidder." San Diego is a great place for a pitcher looking to re-establish his value, and it's entirely possible he makes up that $2 million and then some next off-season.

Fangraphs has a cool free agent chart by position with Steamer projections. If you look at the right-hand side of the screen, you'll see the Steamer WAR projections (with the personnel currently under contract) for the teams.  The Blue Jay figure of 39.2 is right there in the middle of a knot of teams between the Dodgers (37.1) and the Angels (41.5).  Only the Tigers and the Red Sox are substantially ahead of the pack.  For what it's worth, here are the Blue Jay Steamer projections. Subjectively, I think that they are a bit optimistic (JPA as a plus defender?), but it is interesting that they do see have the club having five good position players and really only having a hole at second base.

The Jays have added Deck McGuire and Kenny Wilson to the 40-man roster in advance of tonight's deadline.

Why protect Kenny Wilson? Do they actually care if somebody wants to carry him on their MLB roster all season?

Is it possible Kenny Wilson was protected because Colby Ramus is in play in one or more of the Trade scenarios A.A. is working on?

I think it is more a case of them being worried that it is easy for a team to stash someone who can play good defense at all 3 of positions and steal a base.

Josh Johnson signed for $8 million on a 1 year contract with the Padres.

As Springfield's most famous wealthy curmudgeon once said: "I'd be happier with the dollar."

Good luck to JJ in San Diego. If he regains his form, I feel the NL West is the place it would haunt us the least.

Wow! Fielder for Kinsler? Never saw that coming..... if it really goes through.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/tigers-to-acquire-prince-fielder-for-ian-kinsler.html

Unloading the boat anchor that is Prince Fielder and his contract, is the accomplishment of the off-season. Kudos to the Tigers.

This is what it must have felt like to be a non-Jays fan when we unloaded Wells. Also, WOW.

Crazy deal. So who plays 3B for the Tigers next season now? Peralta? Or does Victor move to 1B and Miggy stay at 3rd?

$30m going with Prince...So Texas gets Prince at 7/$138m and Detroit gets Kinsler at essentially 4/$92m.

hmmmm.

New post up. So soon!

Castellanos can go back to playing 3B, and Cabrera can go back to being a right-side statue, rather than on the left side.

"Perez, who turned 23 last month, is a dependable catcher who moves well behind the plate, blocks well and earns praise for how he handles a pitching staff. His arm is average and he gets rid of the ball quickly, helping him erase an impressive 47 percent of basestealers last year in Triple-A Oklahoma City."

From JJ Cooper's report it sounds like Perez is a guy worth considering for a backup C role, though it's possible AA's office thought much less of him when they moved him and 4 other "prospects" for the privilege of controlling JA Happ.

The Rays and Jose Molina are working on a two-year deal, per MLBTR. The game of musical chairs (catching dept.) continues apace.

George Kottaras is out there, for free. He's got a career OPS+ of 96 with a career 655/749 OPS split. I can't understand why he never gets any chances. Yes, he has a low batting average, but he supplements it with walks and homeruns.

Kottaras' defensive record and reputation seems to be pretty poor.  He seems to have had a below-average record throwing out baserunners, and perhaps blocking pitches and the other aspects of catcher defense.  Over his career, pitchers on his clubs have had a significantly better ERA when other catchers are behind the plate (about .6 run/game in 2013, about .8 run/game in 2012 and 1 run/game in 2009; he was a tiny bit better in 2010 and 2011).  Fans in the Fans Scouting Report like him about as much as we like JPA defensively (avg. rating 30 for Kottaras, 31 for JPA).

All that said, I wouldn't mind him as a 3rd catcher and left-handed bat on a bench.  It would work better with a shorter bullpen.

At the moment, my ideal-but-realistic off-season would involve acquiring Conger and Kendrick from the Angels and signing Ubaldo to augment the rotation. In a perfect world, the team would also pull off one unlikely-but-improving trade (acquiring the excellent Hisashi Iwakuma, say).

Other items on my Christmas wish list:

- A solid two-way corner/utility OF who can play defense (a la David DeJesus). In other words, an upgrade over Pillar or Sierra or Gose. Is Nate McClouth that player? I'm just throwing out names here.

- A very good defensive SS to ride the pine, sub in as a late-inning defensive replacement, and occasionally start when Reyes needs a rest or when it otherwise makes sense

- Another C to back up or even play half-time (Hanigan, Navarro...?)

I think those moves would get the Jays jump-started in 2014. They also wouldn't break the bank. In summary: another solid SP or two and solid two-way players at C, 2B, corner/utility OF, and a great defensive SS who probably can't hit. They don't have to be high-ceiling players; just good ones.