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Game Threads Jays vs. Tampa Bay May 26 - 28
The Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays go at it for the first time since Opening Day in Tampa, when the Jays managed to split the first four games of the season.

Both teams look to keep the good times rolling with the Jays on a six game winning streak and the Rays on a four-gamer.


The first-place Blue Jays (29-22) take on the fourth-place Rays (23-28) with the Jays holding a six-game cushion on Tampa and a two-game lead on Baltimore after the O's comeback win over Milwaukee earlier today. The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep of Oakland at the Nest while the Rays took care of Boston in three straight at the Trop.


Series Schedule & Probable Starters...

Tonight at 7:07 pm ET - RHP Drew Hutchison (3-3, 3.45) vs. LHP Erik Bedard (2-2, 2.63).
Tuesday at 7:07 pm ET - LHP Mark Buehrle (8-1, 2.16) vs. RHP Alex Cobb (1-1, 1.40).
Wednesday at 7:07 pm ET - RHP Liam Hendriks (1-0, 1.59) vs. RHP Chris Archer (3-2, 4.11)


Tonight's Lineup - Reyes SS, Cabrera LF, Bautista RF, Encarnacion 1B, Lawrie 3B, Navarro C, Tolleson 2B, PIllar DH, Gose CF.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Monday, May 26 2014 @ 07:02 PM EDT.
Jays vs. Tampa Bay May 26 - 28 | 223 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#286945) #
Ok, so i'll go there and risk the jinx.


OPS+

Reyes 102 -------- White 90 ---------- White 108
Cabrera 135 ------ Alomar 130 -------- Alomar 141
Bautista 163 ----- Winfield 138 ------ Molitor 143
En'cion 140 ------ Carter 120 -------- Carter 112
Lind 158 --------- Olerud 127 -------- Olerud 186
Lawrie 86 -------- Gruber 72 --------- Sprague 86
Francisco 164 ---- Mal'nado 125 ------ Fernandez 115
Navarro 75 ------- Borders 85 -------- Borders 75
Rasmus 103 ------ Lee 83 ------------ Henderson 83


Tolleson 158 ----- Kent 110 ---------- Coles 85
Pillar 91 ---------- Bell 88 ----------- Ward 61
Izturis 78 --------- Griffin 53 -------- Schofield 44
Thole 131 -------- Myers 80 ---------- Knorr 98

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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#286946) #
This is a good May, but it's still only May.

Encarnation has a chance to beat Bautista's team record of 12 HR in May.

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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#286947) #
And hey, why not complete the picture?

ERA+

Buehrle 193 --------- Guzman 154 ------- Hentgen 112
Hutch 121 ----------- Key 115 ---------- Guzman 109
Dickey 106 ---------- Morris 101 ------- Stewart 98
Happ 126 ------------ Stott'myr 91 ----- Stott'myre 90
Morrow 71 ----------- Wells 76 --------- Morris 70
Stroman? ------------ Cone 161 --------- Leiter 106

Janssen o_O --------- Ward 209 --------- Ward 204
Loup 131 ------------ Henke 181 -------- Eichorn 160
Redmond 125 --------- Timlin 100 ------- Cox 140
Delabar 117 --------- Eichorn 95 ------- Castillo 129
Cecil 110 ----------- Macdonald 94 ----- Williams 100
McGowan 89 ---------- Steib 81 --------- Timlin 93
Santos 58 ----------- Hentgen 76 ------- Brow 74
Wagner 53 ----------- Linton 48 -------- Linton 68

So who is our Cone?

Stroman?

Or a trade? And then who is our Kent?

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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#286948) #
I'd be real impressed if Stroman can get an ERA+ of 90 as a starter.

He's at 34 as a reliever.

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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#286949) #
Francisco has got all the attention, but his indirect platoon mate tolleson has been every bit as impressive.
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China fan - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#286950) #
There's no question that the Jays of 2014 are an excellent hitting team -- maybe better than the hitters of those World Series teams, as uglyone points out.   So, as always, the Jays will go as far as their pitching takes them.  That's always been the key to this team.  This year, the bullpen is again looking very strong (with Janssen and McGowan back) and three of the starting five rotation pitchers look very good too.  Happ is still unproven (although he looked very good in his last start) and Hendriks is very unproven.  Dickey has occasional problems too -- and Hutchison is suffering some problems tonight too.  And then, as always, there are the injury risks. 

One key question is whether the Jays have the pitching depth to overcome injuries or slumps in the rotation.  They could always make a trade for a pitcher, but it could cost them several of their top prospects.  So who do they have on the farm as potential replacements?

Here's where, surprisingly, the Jays might have more depth than we thought.  Stroman is the obvious candidate to move into the rotation if necessary.  But there are others too.  McGuire is having a great debut for Buffalo tonight.  (Five shutout innings to begin the game, though he faltered in the 6th inning.)  And then there is Esmil Rogers.  I know, I know, you're already booing and jeering at the idea of Rogers in the rotation.  But the main reason that he passed through waivers unclaimed was his $1.8-million salary.  The Jays are stuck with him, so they might as well put him into the Buffalo rotation and see if he recovers his form of last season.  And here's what some of us have forgotten:  Rogers had a bunch of very good games as a starter in the majors last year.  He had some bad games too.  But he had 9 quality starts: 6 or more innings with 3 runs or less.  In fact, in 8 of those starts, he held the opposition to 2 runs or less.  If he could do that in 2013, there's every reason to think he could do it again.  One of the problems in 2014, perhaps, is that he sat in the bullpen, unused for several games in a row, pitching only a couple innings here or there, getting rusty in between.  He might actually be a better starter than a reliever.  And Buffalo is the perfect place for him to try to recover his touch.  In a month or two, he could be a good candidate for the rotation if Hendriks and Stroman falter.  Pitching depth is important, and that depth could help the Jays significantly this season.

Having said all that, I see that Buffalo is using Rogers as a reliever tonight.  He immediately uncorked a wild pitch and then allowed a hit.  Maybe he's not ready for the starting rotation.  Maybe he's worse than last year for some reason.  Still, I don't see why he can't duplicate those 9 quality starts of 2013 if the Jays are patient with him in Buffalo for a few weeks.
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China fan - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#286951) #
I meant to mention Sean Nolin too in that summary of the pitching depth in Buffalo.
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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#286952) #
Hutch has nothing tonight. Dang.
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Mike Green - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#286953) #
It was a good idea to give Bautista a day off in the field. 
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Hodgie - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#286954) #
Hutchison has been awful tonight but he sure isn't getting any help from Corey Blaser either. Up to this point this may be the worst called game I have seen by a HP this season.

Stirkezone Map

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China fan - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#286955) #
Should the Jays pull Hutchison now, after 85 pitches, before he can fritter away this lead too?  Or does he deserve a chance to restore stability in the 6th inning?  Do the Jays have enough bullpen depth to let the relievers handle 4 innings tonight?   You be the manager....
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Hodgie - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#286956) #
With the way this game is going I am glad the Jays have the last at-bat.
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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#286957) #
I'd send hutch back out to try and get one more inning against the bottom if the order...but with a short leash. Any runner gets on, go straight to the bullpen.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#286958) #
Welcome back to Canada Erik.
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Hodgie - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#286959) #
I am trying to follow along from work on Gameday, but considering Gibbons went to Francisco already I would be shocked to see Drew come back out for the 6th. Let Redmond start with a clean slate and a lead to work with.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#286960) #
The Rays bullpen has been used quite a bit in the last 2 games. It's going to be interesting to see what Maddon does.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#286961) #
Gibbons went to Francisco because they pulled their starter.
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Mike Green - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#286962) #
I let Redmond start the 6th inning.  He needs the work, and even if he has some rust, he'll probably be as good as Hutchison on this night.  If Redmond has it, I'd see if he can throw 4 innings.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#286963) #
Why Loup? And why Molina?
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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#286964) #
Loup because of the lefties.

Molina because hanigan is hurt i think.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#286965) #
What lefties? There was only DeJesus.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#286966) #
Now I see that Loup had 2 days of rest, still, now that's 30 pitches and he might need to rest tomorrow.
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Mike Green - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#286967) #
Gibbons is treating a 5 run lead as a medium-high leverage situation.  Hopefully the club tacks on a few runs, so Gibbons feels comfortable sitting Delabar down in favour of Redmond/Rasmussen.
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#286968) #
Lind didn't pinch hit for Pillar. Sore back?
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Mike Green - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#286969) #
Good thing Pillar was still out there.
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grjas - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#286970) #
Hopefully the club tacks on a few runs, so Gibbons feels comfortable sitting Delabar down in favour of Redmond/Rasmussen.

Is Gibbons reading your emails?
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scottt - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#286971) #
Trailing by 2 in the 5th, Maddon brought Colome who hasn't played a single game this year as he just finished a 50 game suspension. And he left him there the rest of the game, presumably to rest the pen for the rest of the series.
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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#286972) #
Rollin rollin rollin

Great win,especially since hutch pooped the bed.

Tommorrow's the big game of the series - buehrle-cobb. I'm kind of a cobb fanboy, not just because he's awesome, but also because he's one of the rarest of rare ballplayers - a TB pitcher who is UNDERrated.

Winningbtommorrow is big cuz i don't fancy hendriks' chances vs. the pesky rays.
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Magpie - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#286973) #
Lind didn't pinch hit for Pillar. Sore back?

More likely because Lind hasn't played the outfield in quite a long time. Gibbons would have had to put Bautista in right and lose the DH.

I assume Loup came in to pitch the sixth because he had already warmed up in the Tampa fifth, when the score was tied.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#286974) #
Greg Zaun said Hutch was pitching too far forward on the rubber; was falling forward on his delivery; was pushing his pitches which were leaving them up in the zone, more than normal. That sound ugly, and that how Hutch looked, ugly.

I read scottt's 10:02 PM comment about Colome. That's precisely how Maddon works. Sink or swim, that's how he determines who to keep. I expect Colome is sent down quick.

Rasmussen is looking like a reasonable acqusition. With Kratz, it's looking like one of A.A.'s better deals.
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uglyone - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#286975) #
Top-5 Records in MLB

1. SFG 32-19
2. OAK 31-20
3. DET 28-19
4. TOR 30-22
5. MIL 30-22

Top-5 Run Differentials

1. OAK +100
2. LAA +43
3. SFG +39
4. COL +33
5. TOR +28
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92-93 - Monday, May 26 2014 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#286976) #
"I assume Loup came in to pitch the sixth because he had already warmed up in the Tampa fifth, when the score was tied."

For the same reason I wouldn't have minded if Delabar came in for the 8th. When Loup put two runners on in the 7th, it was Delabar who was getting loose in case the game was turned into a save situation with one swing of the bat.

The rain was brief tonight, but I can't remember the last time I sat through such a drizzle at the Dome.
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Dave Till - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:13 AM EDT (#286979) #
And then there is Esmil Rogers.  I know, I know, you're already booing and jeering at the idea of Rogers in the rotation.  But the main reason that he passed through waivers unclaimed was his $1.8-million salary.

From what I remember of Rogers, his problem was that he was never mediocre. He would have stretches where he seemed dominant, and stretches where he was just awful, as in no hope of winning the game at all awful. I'm surprised that some team didn't take him on as a reclamation project, though: $1.8 million isn't that much in today's game.

Hutch didn't look sharp, but his strike zone was being squeezed, which forced him to vary his plan of attack.

These last few days have been a bit surreal. Sweeping the Sox in Fenway? Sweeping the team with the best record in the AL? Actually winning against the Rays (only once, but whatever)? Can they possibly keep this up? Dare I hope?
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scottt - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#286980) #
It seems like the Jays haven't used a platoon since Catalanotto and their lineup have been very unbalanced.
It's so great to see Lind starting only 2 games in a 7 game winning streak.
Dropping Jeffress and Rogers improves the pen and the lineup at the same time.

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TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#286981) #
Jays are stuck with him, so they might as well put him into the Buffalo rotation and see if he recovers his form of last season.

If you look at his numbers as a starter and reliever, especially his K-rate, it's hard to see him being successful in the rotation. It is true that he had several good starts, and so there might still be some promise there, but: (a) I think you have to look at the accumulated totals for his starts and figure that's what he probably is (i.e., not very good); and (b) he's 28, which ain't old, but I think you have to start looking at trying to get some value out of his remaining years, which to me means putting him in the bullpen. That's also the one place where he's had any sort of sustained success (with Cleveland in 2012).
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#286982) #
I can understand why Loup came in to pitch the sixth.  When Gibbons sent him out in the 7th inning with a 5 run lead rather than bringing in Redmond or Rasmussen, that was a (relatively minor) mistake.  Loup might have been useful on Wednesday in a more important situation, and it would be better if he had only thrown one inning. 

It takes a very big lead for Gibbons to feel comfortable after the early season debacles.  Hopefully, with Janssen's return, Gibbons will feel more comfortable with all members of the pen in their respective roles. 

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ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#286983) #
Tyler Beede, who says he turned down $2.4 million from the Jays when they drafted him, looks like he will be available at both the 9 and 11 spots.

Should the Jays take him?
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rpriske - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#286984) #

Two new AAA players. P.J. Walters and Melky Mesa.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/blue-jays-acquire-pj-walters-melky-mesa.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

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finch - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#286985) #
I say they shouldn't. There's a lack of control there that is worrisome. I prefer a HS arm and a SS, most likely Trea Turner. I'm hopeful for Gordon being available but that won't happen.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#286986) #
I like Turner. I'd stay away from the pitchers in the first round, as I usually would.
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John Northey - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#286987) #
Just for fun...
d'Arnaud: 68 OPS+, 559 OPS in May but just 10 games, last on the 13th due to a concussion
Syndergaard: forearm injury, 4.02 ERA in Vegas 3.2 BB/9 9.6 K/9
Hechavarria: 73 OPS+
Marisnick: AAA 648 OPS
Escobar: 93 OPS+ for Tampa
Alvarez: 117 ERA+ for Miami with 2 complete game shutouts (!)
Nicolino: 3.56 ERA in AA 1.3 BB/9 but just 3.7 K/9
DeSclafani: 5.56 ERA for Miami in 2 starts, 4.02 ERA in AAA/AA.

Outside of Alvarez I don't think any of them would be an asset this year for the Jays.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#286988) #
Alvarez and Syndergaard are the only ones we'll ever miss, and they still won't be as valuable as buehrle and dickey in the short term, and there's no guarantees for them longterm, either.

In the end, after all the criticism of AA, the only move that backfired significantly was the esmil rogers trade.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#286989) #
In the end, after all the criticism of AA, the only move that backfired significantly was the esmil rogers trade.

Perhaps it might be an idea to wait a while before making a final assessment of trades like these.  Nicolino is 22, Marisnick is 23. D'Arnaud is 25.  We shall see how the Blue Jays do this year and following, and how the young players do for Miami and New York in the next 5-7 years and then we'll have a better idea. 


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Lylemcr - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#286990) #

I think my favorite part of the weekend is where the Jays look like they had tall mountains to climb and they tore them down.  For example:

- Pomeranz had not given up an earned run as a starter yet.  The Jays changed that quickly.

- Bedard had only given up 1 HR this year.  That changed quickly too.

There seems to be a lot of chemistry right now.  It will be interesting to see what they do when Rasmus is ready.  I know the Mariners could use a center fielder and we could use a 2nd baseman...  Just saying.   

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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#286991) #
Mike, take that as a prediction, then.

Nicolino can't strike out anybody in AA. Marisnick is abysmal in AAA. D'Arnaud's reputation has only remained intact thanks to that AAA bandbox in AAA.

Some of these guys might end up with passable mlb careers, but i'd be surprised if they ever became anything worth kicking ourselves about.
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#286992) #
"When Gibbons sent him out in the 7th inning with a 5 run lead rather than bringing in Redmond or Rasmussen, that was a (relatively minor) mistake. Loup might have been useful on Wednesday in a more important situation, and it would be better if he had only thrown one inning."

I far prefer getting two innings out of one reliever than the cycling through relievers daily that leads to needing 8 man bullpens. If you're pulling Redmond after one inning in a 5 run lead to get Rasmussmen some work, your roster is poorly constructed, and you're leaning too heavily on your front 5 relievers.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#286993) #
And oh yeah - the other AA trade that sucked was the one forced on him - the Halladay trade.

Not that it matters, since Dominic Brown kinda stinks, but it's criminal we weren't able to get back philly's top prospect in a trade for Roy. IIRC the going price for a stud like Roy back then was two A prospects plus two B prospects + maybe some filler on top of that. We got one A prospect (Drabek) plus two B prospects and that was it.
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John Northey - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#286994) #
Right now Alvarez is the only one looking like 'dang, should've kept them'.  d'Arnaud is having trouble living up to his hype and a concussion could mean he never will (those are hard to predict).  Syndergaard getting hurt is what pitchers do - will he fully recover? Probably but who knows.

Funny how often it is the little trades, the Gomes for Rogers one, that look either 'woohoo' or 'noooooo!' in the end while at the time no one thought much one way or the other.
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#286995) #
Let's not forget that Yunel Escobar, a valuable commodity who was ran out of town, was a part of that trade, and produced a higher WAR than Reyes last year for 1/4 of the price.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#286996) #
I far prefer getting two innings out of one reliever than the cycling through relievers daily that leads to needing 8 man bullpens. If you're pulling Redmond after one inning in a 5 run lead to get Rasmussmen some work, your roster is poorly constructed, and you're leaning too heavily on your front 5 relievers.

In the particular situation, Redmond hadn't thrown in 7 days and Rasmussen hadn't thrown in 5 days (1 batter only).  It made sense to pull Loup after 1 inning, put in Redmond for 2 innings and Rasmussen for 1 inning.  Gibbons has rightfully been leaning heavily on his front 5 relievers in the last week because the starters have been going deep and the club has had a lot of small leads late. Each situation is a bit different, and I don't have the same qualms about the roster now that they are down to a 7 man pen.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#286997) #
The May 27 birthday team is short down the middle of the diamond, but has both Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas.  Bagwell and Thomas won MVPs in 1994 and were both born on May 27, 1968.  I doubt that had happened before, and I don't remember hearing about it at the time.
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#286998) #
I watched Redmond warming up in the 3rd inning, Hutchison's first bad inning. I fully expected him to be called in first, not Loup. Apparently he's Hendriks Relief, so only 1 inning.

The Halladay trade when 'finally' completed got us R.A. Dickey; Anthony Gose, who looks like he belongs up here; Kyle Drabek, who ate some innings for us and for AAA. RA looks good, Gose looks good. Is Drabek turning the corner in being a Starter or a Reliever? That looks like a win for AA despite anyone else's opinions.

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soupman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#286999) #
Let's not forget that Yunel Escobar, a valuable commodity who was ran out of town, was a part of that trade, and produced a higher WAR than Reyes last year for 1/4 of the price.

Setting aside the notion that Reyes' game brings the Jays a dimension they've lacked for a while now...

Escobar wrote a homophobic slur on his face. I typically suspend disbelief that baseball players aren't mostly bigoted, so that was a line for me.

Growing up in the early 90s, it felt like the Jays were the good guys taking down the cocky A's teams with Ricky Henderson's Ricky-Hendersonin' Eck's finger-pointery, and my suspicion that Canseco and McGwire weren't the 'natural's they were purported to be.

It's been so long, that as nice as it would be to simply 'win' again - there's value in simply having a team that appears to be "worth" cheering for.

TL;DR: The Jose Reyes 'brand' is worth more than WAR.

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Jevant - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#287001) #
Which Mariners 2B are you thinking about here?
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#287002) #
I guess the question then, MG, is why Rasmussen wasn't the one warming up in Loup's spot, if you trusted him in the 7th of a 3 run game vs. David Ortiz at Fenway. The 5th is too early to be warming up Loup if having him throw 2 innings is going to have any negative effect on how you run your bullpen on Wednesday.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#287003) #
Maybe he learned a lesson from sticking Rogers in with a 5 run lead.
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snowman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#287004) #
I don't know exactly when Loup started warming, but I assume it was him over Rasmussen because it was either a tie or a one-run game at the time, and Gibbons wanted to stop the bleeding and settle things down with the more trusted of the two.  If he does the opposite, does he not then get criticized for saving the better reliever for a specific role rather than using him in a higher leverage situation?  I think it was a good decision, although the two innings could be questioned.  But as someone pointed out, Redmond might be needed for a long stint on Wednesday, and needed a little work to shake off the rust.
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#287005) #
It's possible Gibbons doesn't have enough experience with Rasmussen to trust him enough. When a Starter goes short it causes problems for future plans. Redmond is his primary 3-4 inning guy and the only question mark in the Rotation is Liam Hendriks. I do think Redmond and Rasmussen get forgotten/ignored from day-to-day.
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snowman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#287006) #
If he was open to moving to second to make room for Reyes, Escobar would look awfully good there right now, regardless of a one-time incident of a debatable slur that nobody noticed except one guy who blew up a picture.  It amazes me how small-minded and judgemental people can be.  Perhaps Escobar should have been banned from baseball altogether, or maybe executed.  People insult people all the time for a variety of reasons; most of us get over it.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#287007) #
Mike, take that as a prediction, then.

Fair enough.  It probably is the case though that if you take a bulk of pretty decent prospects, one or two of them will surprise you.  Someone might move d'Arnaud out from behind the plate and unleash his power.  Nicolino might develop a new pitch or hone an existing one. And it may not matter because Reyes, Dickey and Buehrle might lead the Jays to two or three WS championships in the interval.

What message does Rogers take from the fact that 45,000 attended on Sunday and 15,000 on Monday?  That if you offer 20,000 shirts it will pay dividends? That Monday night is a good night for football and a bad night for baseball? I confess that I am surprised.  There is a buzz about the team now, and the weather is nice.  I would have expected 20 to 25K at least.



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soupman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#287009) #
I have no interest in re-enacting a debate from 2012, especially not with someone that would so quickly resort to ad hominem attacks.



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China fan - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#287010) #
".... I would have expected 20 to 25K at least...."

I think it's because Toronto already has so many championship teams.  You can't blame the Toronto fans for being a little bored of success.  They routinely get first-place teams in the NHL for example.
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China fan - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#287011) #
"....The 5th is too early to be warming up Loup if having him throw 2 innings is going to have any negative effect on how you run your bullpen on Wednesday...."

Gibbons generally does a pretty good job of utilizing and preserving his relief pitchers.  He probably calculated that the bullpen is fairly well-rested by now; Buehrle is likely to pitch 7 or 8 innings tonight; at least 5 relievers should be available by Wednesday; and even Loup could face a batter or two if Gibbons is running out of LHP on Wednesday.  I'm not entirely convinced that the 30 pitches by Loup last night would disqualify him from facing a hitter on Wednesday if a lefty specialist is required.
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#287012) #
I'm not convinced at all, which is why I think Gibbons played the bullpen well last night. Loup is probably available for a batter tonight, and if he doesn't come in he should be fine for an inning tomorrow.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#287013) #
Yunel's a weird one for me.

In TB he's benefitting from both a huge park adjustment to boost his offensive value, and last year had a crazy uzr number which may well have just been an outlier.

In TB Yunel's "hard" numbers are: 777pa, .256/.332/.361/.693, which isn't very impressive. With the park adjustment, though, that is barely below league average at a 98wrc+....which is of course above average for an SS.

He also racked up a career high 17.1 defensive war last year, almost double his previous career best of 10.8. Even a full year is a relatively small sample of uzr, so we can't be sure how accurate that is. Interesting that so far this year, that number has completely flipped to -5.1 over 1/3 a season, which is just as bad as last year's was good.

No surprise that with that defensive rating, he's been worth no war at all this year. So far this year he's been a replacement level player, after being worth 3.9wins last year.

Overall fangraphs has yunel at 3.9war over 202gms in TB,but most of that is tied up in his +12.5 defensive rating...which is a bit surprising to me because while he's a good fielder with a great arm i never thought he had the great range to be an elite defensive ss out there.

Jose has been significantly better with the bat than yunel. Jose - .344obp, .768ops. Even when adjusted for park he's at 111wrc+. Fangraphs gives Jose a +8.8 offensive rating, plus a +1.4baserunning rating with the jays. His defense doesn't rate well...but it's actually not a liability and is only slightly below average at -0.8.Overall Reyes has a 2.9war with the jays in 128gms...which is actually better than Yunel per game, and would have him at 4.6 over 202gms, compard to yunel's 3.9.

To lay out that comp more clearly:

Yunel: 202gms, -1.6off, -0.3bsr, +12.4df, +3.9war (150gms, -1.2off, -0.2bsr, +9.2df, +2.9war)
Reyes: 128gms, +8.8off, +1.4bsr, -0.8df, +2.9war (150gms, +10.3off, +1.6bsr, -0.9dr, +3.4war)


So Reyes has been the better offensive player by a large margin, but yunel has made per game value closer with his great defensive ratings, and then has been more valuable overall because he's stayed healthy.

Now defensive ratings are tricky business overall...but i'm always especislly suspicious when it comes to TB's defensive ratings. Maybe it's thanks to Maddon's emphasis on defensive positioning, but this isn't the first time that a player has had great defensive ratings in TB but only decent ratings elsewhere - i.e. Carl crawford.

If we look at baseball reference, who use different defensive measures, they have the two neck and neck overall (escobar 3.2war, reyes 3.0war), even though yunel has played so many more games. Project bwar over 150gms and reyes is over a full win better - 3.5 to 2.4.

So i would lean towards last year's uzr number for escobar being a bit of a blip. He might be better defensively than reyes but i don't think he's that much better.....and i'd say reyes' superior offense outweighs the defensive difference...as bwar agrees.

So then it comes down to health. We have to agree that we knew Reyes was a health risk, but at the same time yunel wasn't exactly an ironman himself. Yunel hadn't had major injuries but had always hovered between 135-145gms per year. Then last year he played a career high of 153gms, with no dl stints, and has played every game this year as well. He's suddenly healthier than he's ever been before.

Meanwhile, after playing 160gms the year before, reyes suffers the second major injury of his career and plays only 93gms for us last year, the 2nd fewest of his career (only played 36gms in 2009).

There's a bit of luck going there with he health situations i think.

I do think reyes is the significantly better player, and i think we'll be happy with that difference in the end.
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#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#287014) #
Some good stuff from Jonah Keri on Grantland about the Jays and their "cluster luck" in its latest edition of "The 30".
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#287015) #
I was curious what Loup has done when asked to throw 2+ innings and follow it up with work the following day or the day after that.  He has never been asked to work the following day.  When asked to work the day after that (6 times), his line is as follows: 5 innings, 7 hits, 6 ER, 2 walks, 3 Ks. It's a small sample, I know, but it might suggest that there is diminished effectiveness (as I would anticipate). 
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electric carrot - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#287016) #
Yunel's a weird one for me.

Great post uglyone.  It's been fun reading your posts -- especially the recent ones like this.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#287017) #
Nice find, brumfield!

One sentence in there bugged me, though:

"the Jays will need to come up with contingency plans should injuries strike again this year"

I keep seeing this repeated all over the place - that the jays have been healthy this year...and almost luckily healthy at that.

But we've actually been one of the more injured teams around:

1. Starting SS Reyes
2. Starting CF Rasmus
3. Starting DH Lind
4. #3 SP Morrow (possible season ender)
5. Closer Janssen
6. Backup closer Santos
7. #5/6 SP Happ
8. Starting 2B Izturis (possible season ender)

8 DL stints in the first 50gms is not "healthy".

And that doesn't count the non-DL injuries like Lawrie and Navarro hobbling around for a few days or wagner going on the minor league dl.

Injuries have already struck, jonah.
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snowman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#287018) #

Hey, I agree the "eyeblack incident" should be put to rest.  You chose to dig it back up, which makes it a little dishonest to say you have no interest in debating it, after you've had your say.  Also a little rich to whine about so-called "ad hominem attacks" when your own post contained words like bigoted, homophobic, cocky, "worth cheering for".  That's an awful lot of value judgements.  (None of these were actual "ad hominem attacks", by the way; it's not just a fancy term for "insult".)

The fact remains, he's a reasonably good infielder who was thrown away for no value because of political-correctness considerations.  The Marlins were smart enough to accept him in trade and flip him for at least a little value, and the Rays were smart enough to employ him.  Obviously Reyes is the better player when he's healthy, and Escobar might not have moved to second willingly (although for a winning team you never know, especially after his reputation took that hit), but throwing talented players away over a single questionable incident seems foolish.  Not too many Tigers fans support spousal abuse, but I bet they love having Miguel Cabrera on their team, even with that incident in his past.

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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#287019) #
Thanks carrot.....i guess homer posts are more fun to read when the team doesn't stink and make you look like a liar!
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#287021) #
The Blue Jay cluster luck (yikes, don't say that in public) is a bit hard to explain.  According to the statistics in Jonah Keri's article, the Jays' offence has had mildly poor cluster luck (i.e. less than average hit bunching) whereas the defence has had exceptionally good cluster luck.  If you look at the team pitching splits though, there is only a small difference between runners on and bases empty performance.  This difference is significantly offset by the fact that the pitchers have been totally crunched with the bases loaded. 

Some have it may originate from imperfections in the definition of Base Runs as a team run estimator.  it does not appear to count outs on the bases.  Blue Jay OFers have 13 assists so far, which is quite a few. 
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#287022) #
Blue Jay attendance is down an average of 7,000 fans per game, which is 175,000 thus far this season.
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China fan - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#287023) #
"....The fact remains, he's a reasonably good infielder who was thrown away for no value because of political-correctness considerations...."

That's a complete rewriting of history.
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Jonny German - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#287024) #
Down versus attendance thru May 26 last year, or down when you compare to the overall season average of last year?
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China fan - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#287025) #
"....When asked to work the day after that (6 times), his line is as follows: 5 innings, 7 hits, 6 ER, 2 walks, 3 Ks...."

But those numbers are inflated by his bad outing on May 3 against Pittsburgh, and by a bad outing in his second-ever major-league game in 2012.  You could also interpret those 6 outings differently:  in half of those outings, he suffered no ill-effects at all -- he allowed no runs and a grand total of one hit.
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smcs - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#287026) #
Down versus attendance thru May 26 last year, or down when you compare to the overall season average of last year?

I looked at this yesterday. Through 24 home games (so including Sunday, but not yesterday), the Jays home attendance was off 5,000 from 2013, and almost exactly the same as 2012. They've benefited from playing 4 weekend series, and only 1 Monday game (until yesterday). The attendance is around 24,000, but they haven't had a single game where the attendance has been between 22,000 and 29,000. Their mid-week games are averaging below 20,000 (around 17,000, if I remember correctly), and their weekend games are up around 33,000.
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John Northey - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#287027) #
Escobar wore out his welcome in Atlanta, a year after being the team MVP iirc.  He wore out his welcome here too.  He didn't get a chance in Miami, but I wonder how Tampa is about him now.  Does he have talent? Oh yeah. Is he underpriced for his skills?  Yup.  But does he carry a lot of baggage that we fans know about?  Yes again.  Given the history I'd think there is more there than we know of - Atlanta was a fairly well run organization and Bobby Cox was still manager when Escobar was kicked out of town.  AA is generally seen as a smart GM who hates to toss away anything (just look at the back end of the pen in April).  Yet both got rid of Escobar despite many reasons to keep him.  There is a message there.
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#287028) #
I'm pretty sure everyone here gets that message, John. That doesn't mean, however, that Yunel Escobar should be ignored when reviewing The Trade. He was a valuable component.
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snowman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#287029) #

"That's a complete rewriting of history."

 

No, I don't think it it is.

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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#287030) #
"That's a complete rewriting of history."

Which part did you take issue with, CF?
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Chuck - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#287031) #
I wonder how Tampa is about him [Escobar] now.

With limited funds, TB has to be accommodating of problem children that come with an attractive price tag. Hell, they're even playing a convicted rapist (which, as a TB fan, offends me).

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snowman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#287032) #

John, I acknowledge there was a history there.  But in the Jays' case, Escobar's issue wasn't so much with his teammates as with public perception.  If he was clashing with the team like Hillenbrand, there's a point where you have to move someone.  Apart from the occassional spat with the umpires, the only misbehaviour I can recall from Escobar was the eyeblack, a single incident for which he publicly apologized.  I would think assaulting someone, as some players have done, is a far worse infraction, as is drunk driving, which can kill an innocent.  Yet both are relatively routinely forgiven.  If the reason Robbie Alomar wasn't resigned by the Jays was the incident with the umpire, how many Jays fans would be satisfied withat explanation?  I sure would have loved five more years with Alomar as a Jay.  These people are human beings.  They make mistakes.  Can they not be forgiven, and judged on their baseball talents?  (Within reason, obviously; there are crimes severe enough to warrant blacklisting.  I just don't see how writing a possible slur in tiny letters on your eye blabck compares to assaulting another person.)

Perhaps it's all a moot point if Escobar wouldn't have moved to second.  I just hate to see baseball decisions being made on the basis of witch hunts like this.  When a person makes a relatively minor mistake, and publicly apologizes for it, it seems bush league to throw him away to appease the more unforgiving members of the public.  If he was necessary to complete that trade, fine, but I'm fairly sure Miami would have preferred not to get him when they were trying to purge salary and were getting another shortstop anyway.

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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#287033) #
Jays had 2,536,562 fans in the seats last year. They had surprisingly good attendance in April and May last year. With July and August being the big months attendance-wise, it's unlikely they can come close to last year's numbers.

I'm disappointed in not having much better attendance lately. They've won 12 of 14, and have been in First Place the last six games. Coming home in sole possession of 1ST on Friday May 23, I expect more than 21,007 fans to show up. Saturday had only 29,372 fans, while Sunday sold out because they were giving away free Jays Shirts. Monday's 15,616 was a disgrace.

They are playing some of the best baseball of their season and NO ONE CARES.
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scottt - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#287034) #
I don't know if Miami wanted Escobar, but he wasn't going to play 2nd in Toronto and AA probably thought he had that base covered with Izturis and Bonifacio.
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Parker - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#287035) #
They are playing some of the best baseball of their season and NO ONE CARES.

Possibly because the 2013 team played some of the worst baseball that Jays fans have ever seen, relative to the offseason hype that caused the early spike in attendance.

How many games have you made it to this year, Richard?
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James W - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#287036) #
NO ONE CARES

According to Yahoo's "Eh Game" blog, last night's game had an average audience of 836,000.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/eh-game/great-canadian-ratings-report-audiences-heat-along-blue-181535982.html

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China fan - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#287037) #
"....Which part did you take issue with?....."

How about the part where he tosses around ridiculously exaggerated words like "witch-hunt" and "bush league" and "political correctness"?  Those words are so inflammatory and exaggerated that they hardly even merit a debate.

I'm sure most people here are weary of the tedious debate about the Escobar issue, but since you asked, I'll go through it again.

If the claim about a "witch hunt" was accurate, Escobar wouldn't have received a relatively mild 3-game suspension.  The Jays wouldn't have bothered with the counseling of Escobar during the suspension if they were planning to dump him.  If it was a "witch-hunt," he wouldn't have continued to play the rest of the season (a further 13 games) after the suspension.  And there would  be some evidence (aside from the trade) to support the claim that he was deliberately dumped for that single incident.  In reality, there isn't a single comment by any Jays manager or executive to support the claim that they got rid of him because of a single incident.

Moreover, the claim that Escobar was "thrown away for no value" is equally false.  He was a "valuable component" of the trade -- as 92-93 said.  There's no guarantee that the Jays would have managed to acquire those same players from the Marlins without giving up Escobar.  The fact that the Marlins subsequently traded Escobar doesn't prove that he had zero value.  (In fact, the Marlins acquired their starting 2B for Escobar -- a 2B who is one of their better hitters this year.)

When we're considering the possibility of a conspiracy theory, the simplest explanation is usually superior to the complicated plot.  The simple fact is that the Jays knew that they were acquiring Reyes and didn't have any desire to pay $5-million to a surplus shortstop. That's the simple and obvious explanation for the trade -- not some speculation about "witch hunts" and "political correctness."

If Escobar was a serious option for 2B, presumably the Jays would have tried him there.  They didn't hesitate to put Lawrie at 2B this season, despite his unhappiness.  And they tried Lawrie at 2B last season to begin the experiment.  With Escobar, they didn't even try him out there -- and that decision was made long before the September 2012 suspension.  I have to assume that he wasn't going to be a real option at 2B for various reasons.

Escobar may have worn out his welcome in Toronto, as John suggested.  But if so, it was for a range of issues, including his on-field play and his off-field behavior, plus the unexpected opportunity to upgrade by acquiring Reyes.   He wasn't chained to a wooden pole in a Salem-style burning of the witches.
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#287038) #
"That's the simple and obvious explanation for the trade"

You do have to wonder how much of that decision was made easier by his perceived baggage. 5m is peanuts even if Yunel was only going to be a utility infielder, and he was obviously talented enough to be more than that.

I love a balanced S-S-R-L-R-L-R-S-L lineup, but I don't love the idea of Encarnacion batting 5th. Perhaps Melky should bat 5th or 6th vs. RHP if you want Lind breaking up Bautista & Encarnacion.
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#287040) #
What message does Rogers take from the fact that 45,000 attended on Sunday and 15,000 on Monday?  That if you offer 20,000 shirts it will pay dividends? That Monday night is a good night for football and a bad night for baseball? I confess that I am surprised.  There is a buzz about the team now, and the weather is nice.  I would have expected 20 to 25K at least.

Well I'm not sure Rogers is all that unhappy, considering the game last night brought 836k viewers on tv.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#287041) #

I don't think him leaving was so much about Escobar himself - they likely would have kept him if the opportunity to get Reyes hadn't popped up. But once AA saw he could fill the SS slot with Reyes, sending Escobar and his .644ops and his stupid eye paint back the other way in the deal was a no-brainer.
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China fan - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#287042) #
"....You do have to wonder how much of that decision was made easier by his perceived baggage....."

That's a much more balanced way of approaching the Escobar issue, and I've got no problem with anyone who formulates it like that.

".....5m is peanuts even if Yunel was only going to be a utility infielder, and he was obviously talented enough to be more than that...."

Yes, but he had more value to Miami or Tampa as a starter than he did to the Jays as a utility guy.   With the acquisition of Reyes, his value to the Jays would have dropped significantly, but his value to Miami or Tampa was higher since they needed a starting shortstop.  So it made sense to trade him, rather than keeping him around as a bench guy.  (Not to mention that keeping him on the Jays bench, when he could have been a starter on another team, would probably have increased the "baggage" too, by the way.)
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#287043) #
How many games have you made it to this year, Richard?

I make about not enough to get into second tax bracket. I have a smallish but manageable mortgage, (don't ask how and I won't have to lie to you). I could easily, if driving straight through with very short breaks and no speed limit, make it to a game in 68-74 hours. Flying involves many thousands of dollars that might be more useful for frivolous things like Food and Bills. I regularly max out my limited credit card on Jays Jackets and Hats. I consider myself a rabid fan although anyone else might not. Oh yeah, I work for a living because I'm like most people, I'll never be able to afford to retire. I couldn't take the huge pay cut.

Toronto has how many millions and can't get to a game I'd like to? So just guess how many games I get to lately and tell me why 3-4 hour drives are too much.
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#287044) #
thrown away for no value because of political-correctness considerations

I take issue - plenty of it - with the "no-value" part. I think Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes do have some value. You usually have to give something to get something. Escobar was by far the most accomplished property surrendered in that deal, and at this point in time has contributed more at the major league level than the other players Toronto gave up.
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Parker - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#287045) #
Based on the content of your posts I didn't expect you to a member of the 1% club, but it still seems kind of hypocritical to call fan turnout disgraceful when you're not a paying customer yourself. Maybe you're not the only fan who's staying home and watching the games on TV while sporting the Jays gear they maxed out their credit cards to acquire.

Where could you possibly live that it takes 70 hours to drive to Toronto? Argentina?
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johnny was - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#287046) #
I found that drive distance so curious I had to google map it.  Looks like Costa Rica.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#287047) #
Hey guys, how about a little civility?

Some of these attacks are getting pretty unseemly. Not sure what attacking someone else's net worth or level of education has to do with discussing baseball.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#287048) #
Cobb is as fun to watch as Buehrle. Love this guy.
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#287049) #
The useful parts we received for Escobar and all the others were:
1) Jose Reyes - This acquisition makes the deal a win.
2) Mark Buehrle - I shouldn't have to say anymore.
3) John Buck - Important piece of the R.A. Dickey trade (they needed a Catcher).
4) $8.5 MM in cash - Signed Melky Cabrera and acquired and signed Josh Thole.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#287050) #
The non-play by Reyes this inning might end up costing the Jays the game. Tough time to not execute.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#287051) #
Well there's your cluster luck.  A line drive, a ground ball off a glove and a cue shot for two runs. 
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#287052) #
that kind of luck hasn't happened much to buehrle this year.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#287053) #
would be real nice to see us eke a win out tampa-style in this pitching duel.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#287054) #
Cobb is as fun to watch as Buehrle. Love this guy.

Too much yap, not enough pitching for my tastes.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#287055) #
Lawrie's awful start to the season was legit awful. It wasn't babip related, IMO.

and then he got red hot and was awesome for a month.

but the last couple of weeks he's been slumping again....but this time IMO is WAS babip related. he was having good at bats and making good contact but just hitting it right at people.

Looks like those balls are starting to find holes again.

edit: and it's just plain weird how clutch Navarro has been this year.

two 2out rbi singles, scratching and clawing out runs against the rays to tie it up. I love it.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#287056) #
Mike Wilner @Wilnerness590
#Bluejays, it should be mentioned, are the only team to score on Alex Cobb this season. #Jays #Rays
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greenfrog - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#287057) #
So, if a Jays batter hits an easy popup to the pitcher, would that be a can of corn on the Cobb?
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#287059) #
heh, well, I guess I don't mind if they decide to win this one Jays-style instead.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#287060) #
Hey uglyone, Cobb is becoming one of my favourite starting pitchers to watch, too:)
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#287061) #
It's the butt-bruise Reyes gave him! I swear!
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#287063) #
Reyes already cost us a couple of runs by muffing up that bouncer earlier, and now he's cost us another run and maybe more with that needless throwing error. he's gotta wake up. both just lazy plays.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#287064) #
Man the Jays have the Rays completely rattled. I have never seen this before. Feels good, man.
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grjas - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#287065) #
I thought it was odd that the Jays let Mottola go in the fall. But Seitzer's fingers are all over the team's hitting prowess this month. Seeing the likes of Francisco, Pillar, Gose and others go up with a clear game plan, working the count, going the other way, using the bunt as a weapon etc. .... A thing of beauty...especially with no drop in the HR's
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scottt - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#287068) #
I thought this would be the night Jenssen gets an ERA.
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katman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#287069) #
Parker asks: "Where could you possibly live that it takes 70 hours to drive to Toronto? Argentina?"

Or California, which is much the same thing in many ways. It's definitely a 3-day driving trip.
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katman - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#287070) #
Re: tonight's game - sometimes, you just have to bludgeon them to death.

Agree that I can't remember seeing this expression on Maddon's face before when we play the Rays. I love that guy to death, but as a Jays fan, it's nice to see.
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John Northey - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#287071) #
Seitzer was rated crazy high by any method I read about for measuring the effect of a hitting coach and it seems to be true so far for the most part.

Player - OPS+ this year, OPS+ Career, + or - this year...an * indicates 100+ PA
*Navarro:82 - 82 - same
*Encarnacion: 146 - 118 - plus
Goins: 16 - 49 - minus
*Reyes: 102 - 107 - minus but could shift quickly
*Lawrie: 88 - 102 - minus
*Cabrera: 140 - 101 - major plus
*Rasmus: 103 - 103 - same
*Bautista: 159 - 126 - plus
Lind: 158 - 110 - wow
*Francisco: 162 - 104 - major wow
Thole: 131 - 82 - wow
Tolleson: 175 - 98 - see Francisco
Kratz: 66 - 84 - minus
Diaz: 24 - 13 - a plus but a 'so what'
Gose: 137 - 84, but just 40 PA

That covers 40+ PA guys, plenty to look at and getting into way too small sample sizes.
100+ PA: 4 plus, 2 minus, 2 identical. 
40-99 PA: 5 plus, 2 minus

Now, doing a quick check of tonights box and marginals... Reyes single, walk in 5 PA so a bit closer I suspect, Gose 0-4 will knock him down a bit, Lawrie 2-4 should push him over 90.  An interesting year indeed.  Should be interesting to see this at the break and at seasons end.
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#287072) #
Bench watches EE crush another: . .
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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 27 2014 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#287073) #
This was a regular Buehrle start from last year. One this team usually would have lost.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#287075) #
With both New York and Baltimore losing, the Jays lead is now three games and climbing.
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92-93 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#287077) #
Is everything okay with Neil Wagner? He's pitched twice in the last 2 weeks. I was hoping we'd see him back in the bigs soon, the pen could really use him. I'm worried about Delabar in particular; he doesn't appear to be nearly as sharp as last year with his fastball, and as a result hitters can lay off the nasty stuff. It would be so nice if Santos was healthy and pitching well too, so Gibbons could summon him with a 3 run lead to give Janssen a breather when he's been going every other night.

If pitching is contagious, let's hope Liam Hendriks has caught the bug. No walks Liam, make the other team earn their runs with a solid defense behind you and an offense capable of a quick strike at any time. Redmond should be ready for a few innings behind him.

Chris Archer has severe L/R splits over his career, but has seen a reversal so far in 2014. Gibby will likely still start Francisco not Tolleson though, especially after a dinger.
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JB21 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#287078) #
Man this team is fun to watch. Also, that RSS post was epic.

Buck mentioned that all Jays games are televised in the DR. As a rule I don't believe anything Buck says but I hope that's true. I grew up with the Dominican Blue Jays and so did a lot of kids in the DR.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#287080) #

Chris Archer has severe L/R splits over his career, but has seen a reversal so far in 2014. Gibby will likely still start Francisco not Tolleson though, especially after a dinger.

I think every lefty starter they faced in the last 3 series has reverse split this year. Starting 8 or 9 rh bats has worked very well regardless.

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grjas - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#287081) #
Interesting post john. The other one ..i know very small sample size..is pillar who looked lost last year (ops+ 58) and is hitting with authority so far this year (113)
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#287082) #
I don't put much credence in the baseball axiom that "good pitching always stops good hitting".  Last night's game provided an example.  Alex Cobb is a good pitcher who brought his A game to the park.  Through 3 innings, he was pretty much unhittable.  In the fourth inning, Lind did a nice job of hitting to softly line a pretty good pitch to left for a single.   You could see Cobb starting to question himself.  He then understandably walked Encarnacion on a 3-2 pitch, got Francisco, and then things came apart when he faced Lawrie (who had smoked a ground rule double to left-centre in his first at-bat).  Cobb made a number of good pitches to Lawrie, who fouled them off.  The count went to 2-2 and Cobb evidently lost confidence and focus.  He started calling out the catcher at every pitch.  A few pitches later, Lawrie lined a single to right, and after a seeing-eye single from Navarro, the game was tied.

Reyes then lined a ball off Cobb the next inning and proceeded to fall apart.  You could say that it was the effect of taking the Reyes' liner that did it.  To my mind, it was clearly cumulative- beginning in the 4th inning. 

The Jay lineup leaves pitchers with no real resting spots.  Like any team, they can be shut down by good pitching on any given day, but they are equally capable of reversing things as they did last night.  And yes, I concur that you can see Seitzer's hand in the approach of a number of the hitters. 

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China fan - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#287084) #
"....I'm worried about Delabar in particular...."

It's not just this season. He's actually been mediocre since the middle of July last season.  I hope the problem gets addressed.  If he doesn't figure it out soon, the answer might have to be Wagner, or Santos, or Stilson or Jenkins. 
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tecumseh18 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#287085) #
The Jay lineup leaves pitchers with no real resting spots.

And that is key. I love Jose Molina, but it sure must have been nice for Jays' pitchers to see him come up every ninth AB. Opposing pitchers have no such respite. And with HR power distributed through our lineup, if they get behind on a batter they still can't afford to give in and let another baserunner on. Everyone is protecting each other, with Edwin spreading his wings over the whole lineup.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#287086) #
It seems to me that there is a bit of an attitude adjustment pitchers have to make.  The ball is flying at the RC now with the warmer weather.  The Jay infield defensively is definitely below average.  You will give up runs in that situation, one way or the other. What you absolutely must do is throw strikes. It means that the approach of both Delabar and Cecil needs to somewhat different than it has been this year.  It probably would help if Gibbons made an effort to bring them in mostly at the start of an inning for one inning only, rather than aiming primarily for the platoon advantage.  This was the more common usage of both of them when they were going well.  With Loup, Cecil, Delabar, McGowan and Janssen, you should be able to cover the 7th-9th innings pretty consistently.  It also means that Gibbons would have to use Redmond a little more often. 

Delabar's stuff in 2014 seems to me to be as electric as it was early in 2013; it is his control that is the major issue. I am optimistic that this can be addressed effectively.

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Lylemcr - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#287089) #

Wow.  That is all I have to say.  I am impressed with the hitting right now.  The core is clicking.

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John Northey - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#287091) #
Lineup...
OPS+
150+: Tolleson, Lind, Francisco, Bautista, Encarnacion
120-149: Cabrera, Thole
100-119: Pillar, Gose, Rasmus, Reyes
80-99: Lawrie, Navarro
Sub 80: Kratz the only one still in majors

That is a solid lineup.  When Navarro and Lawrie are your weak links and the only other guy sub 100 is your 3rd catcher.... wow.

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Gerry - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#287093) #
I am most encouraged by the hits to the opposite field with runners on.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#287096) #
Seitzer has a hand in that, I think.  And when Lind and Francisco both go deep the opposite way a few innings apart, it does send a message. 
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whiterasta80 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#287097) #
Lawrie will get over the 100 mark before the end of the season. Particularly if the guys around him keep hitting the way they are.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#287101) #
Brett Lawrie

First 12gms: 47pa, .091babip, .091/.149/.159/.308
Last 34gms:: 144pa, .304babip, .284/.326/.507/.834

Arbitrary end point? You betcha.

But still, i do think that early season lawrie was the abberration, and that his line for the rest of the year will look more like then2ns split.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#287102) #
For his career, Lawrie is at .264/.321/.426.  He can do better than that, but the first step is fewer pop-ups and strike outs.  He's got the right hitting coach to get there and he has been making strides in that direction as the season has gone on.  It would obviously help if he stayed at one position.
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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#287103) #
Or California, which is much the same thing in many ways. It's definitely a 3-day driving trip.

I resemble that remark :-) And yes, I AM planning to go take in a game on the July long weekend in Oakland, probably with the oldest daughter (and maybe also the wife + other daughter).. She made a Kessel sign for the Leafs vs. Sharks game in January - I think she might make a Dickey poster for one of these games.. (she's 7). And I have done the drive from here (Fremont, CA) to K-W in about 2.5 days once..
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#287104) #
One more thing to keep the offensive (and run prevention) numbers in perspective.  The RC normally plays a slightly above average park (104-105 range).  It has been a 111 park so far this year.  In other words, about 1/2 way between where it usually is and Colorado.
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John Northey - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#287106) #
For the pitching that makes the Jays 4.42 runs per game all the more impressive.  The Jays are 6th best for that. Oakland leads by a mile at 3.15, then Seattle/LAA/KC all in the 3.9 to 4 range.  Detroit at 4.29, then Toronto in a group with Baltimore, NYY, Tampa, Boston in the 4.4 to 4.55 range - funny how the whole AL East has allowed pretty much the same number of runs per game.  Texas and Houston at 4.58 are part of that group really but I found it funny how the 5 AL East teams were bunched together.  At 4.75+ you get Cleveland, Minnesota and the White Sox.
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92-93 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#287107) #
It may be obvious that Lawrie's hitting would benefit from a stable position, but it's equally obvious that the team is benefiting from his versatility, and that they should continue to potentially sacrifice a bit of his hitting in order to field the best lineup that they can every night, and right now that includes having Francisco or Tolleson in the lineup with Lawrie roaming the infield.

I'm surprised Navarro is starting tonight. I thought after yesterday's bruising that he'd get a breather. At some point it may be in the team's best interests to give him a couple of weeks off, both to see what Kratz/Thole can do and to give Navarro a rest so that big body can sustain the stretch run. I do like the way Gibby has been using all 3 catchers.
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John Northey - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#287108) #
Right now the Tolleson/Francisco platoon, made possible by Lawrie jumping around, has been worth far more than any improvement projection we could dream up of for Lawrie I suspect.

That results in a 175/165 OPS+ for Tolleson/Francisco so far.  Think about that vs, say, using Goins and his 16 OPS+, Diaz and his 24 OPS+, Getz and his 18 OPS+, Kawasaki and his 77 OPS+, or (if he was healthy) Izturis and his 78.  The Jays went though a lot of guys, using up 191 PA with sub-optimal results (of course, guys played at more than 2B during that stretch).  Given a choice between any combo of those guys and the current situation it sure seems an easy choice.

FYI: at 2B Lawrie has hit 238/289/405 vs 3B 235/281/426 so I don't think it has hurt him much.  He first played 2B on April 26.  Pre-playing 2B he was hitting 151/213/326. Since then he has hit 315/351/511... wow.  Of course, that means that at 2B he has hit worse than at 3B by a ton since all 2B games are in that stretch (238/289/405) meaning he must have hit well over 300 at 3B during that timeframe. Nonetheless, maybe that pushed him a bit too.  Who knows?  In the end the team is much better off I'd say.

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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#287109) #
Hendriks ain't gonna last long in mlb i don't think. Meatball city.
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China fan - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#287110) #
So if Hendriks doesn't last long in the majors, who replaces him?  Stroman?  Redmond?  Nolin?  Or maybe even Drabek?
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#287111) #
I think stroman's the easy choice.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#287112) #
Gose might already be the best defensive CF in baseball.

That was an insane catch....and he made it look EASY.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#287113) #
That was a Devo-like catch. Very, very athletic.

Hendriks has to tighten up his command. The Rays hitters are gearing up for the belt-high FB and mediocre breaking ball, and they're getting them.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#287114) #
Grump all you want about Hendriks, just one more hit at the right time would have brought in at least 1 more run for the Jays.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#287115) #
If he doesn't walk anybody, Hendriks can probably survive even if he gives up 2 homeruns per game.


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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#287116) #
Hendriks has now thrown 10 innings, given up 3 earned runs on 6 hits,  1 home run, 3 walks and 8 Ks.  I know that he could have easily given up a couple of more runs, but still that is pretty decent performance from your #5 starter.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#287117) #
Crazy defense we're seeing here. And hendriks needs all of it.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#287118) #
I think you're overdoing it...Hendriks has struck out 5 and walked none.  If Lawrie and Encarnacion don't make that great play, it would be a runner on first and two out. 

There's no defence against a walk...

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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#287119) #
I thought Hendriks did a nice job overall after a shaky start. I would be fine with him getting at least one more start.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#287120) #
I might be.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#287121) #
Normally, I'd expect Loup here in the 7th of a tie game, but with Loup having gone 2 innings on Monday, Gibbons decided (probably reasonably) to let Rasmussen have a go at Joyce.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#287122) #
So Liam pitches well completing 6.0 innings. Now we go to a Bullpen very liable to give up a run or two. Does offense triumph or suck?
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#287123) #
Breaking ball on a 3-2 count to jose molina. Questionable.
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JB21 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#287124) #
Was just about to type the same thing after yelling at my TV.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#287125) #
Good job by Dusty.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#287126) #
The Jays don't win a lot of ball games when they don't homer.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#287127) #
Interesting decision.  Do you pinch-hit for Lind with Tolleson or Pillar?  It's a tough one because there is a pinch-hitter penalty. 
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#287128) #
I vote pinch hit.
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grjas - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#287129) #
2 on, tough lefty on the mound, tight game. And he leaves Lind in. Huh?
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#287130) #
That's a tough call.

Why don't they just let pitch tracker call the games already?
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#287131) #
Wilner tweets that mcgee has reverse splits. Is that true?
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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#287132) #
The Jays are playing great D tonight.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#287133) #
Dusty has a chance to take over as the righty setup guy if he keeps this up.

Janssen-cecil-mcgowan, three fairly highly touted jays starting pitcher prospects, ending up manning the back of the pen years later would be an interesting story.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#287134) #
I like having umpires, even if they occasionally (or regularly) miss calls. I feel like the game would lose something without them. At some point we'll probably see them go, though.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#287135) #
Mcgee was kinda awesome there. Especially the 98 on the bottom inside corner followed by the 97 on the bottom outside corner for strikes one and two on lawrie.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#287136) #
If you can throw your pitch right at the glove, it predominantly goes there, no matter how hard you throw. Of course, if you can't hit the glove, you shouldn't be up here.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#287137) #
Lind can't hit lefties, reverse split or not.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#287138) #
That last pitch to Myers was about an inch from being called strike three.

Gold star for Lawrie on the Escobar bounding ball.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#287139) #
Some kind of defense tonight. Love when the late inning defensive switch pays off like that.

Now give us our first walkoff of the year boys!
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#287140) #
Now that is a sweet ending.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#287141) #
HA!

We just rayed them!

Sweet sweep!
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Thomas - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#287142) #
This is a lot of fun. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#287143) #
A turkey of sweeps and against some key teams.
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CeeBee - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#287144) #
3 sweeps in a row, at least 5 great defensive plays tonight, walkoff win without a home run.... life is good! And I am enjoying it cause I know it won't last but this is way more fun then last year.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#287145) #
Getting close to the best record in the AL.
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CeeBee - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#287146) #
Make that then a than.....hope Dewey wasn't looking.
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#287147) #
Jays will end tonight in 2nd in the AL, half a game back of whoever wins this tigers-oakland game on sportsnet west. Third in mlb.

And we just came to the exact 1/3 mark of the year at 54 games.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#287148) #
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=287086

Someone was talked about bad defense?
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#287149) #
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uglyone - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#287150) #
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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#287151) #
As Gibby said after the game, "when you're hot, you're hot."

The team is getting huge performances from their established players, but they're also getting significant contributions from below-the-radar pitchers like Happ, Hendriks and McGowan, and role players like Francisco, Tolleson, Gose, Kratz, and Thole. It has been fun to watch it all come together.
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ayjackson - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#287152) #
Wow. Within a whisker of being out, if he wasn't. Would like another angle to see how close that tag was to Pillar's heel.
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JB21 - Wednesday, May 28 2014 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#287153) #
Molina dropped the ball so it turns out it doesn't matter. Great slide though.

I'm trying not to think too hard about what's happening right now and just enjoy the ride that is the 2014 Toronto Blue Jays. Such a fun team to root for.
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Oceanbound - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#287154) #
That's not Molina. You can tell because his body isn't completely round.
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ayjackson - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#287155) #
The ball comes out from contact with the ground, not the player, he could still be out. Not sure the ball was ever secured though.
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scottt - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#287156) #
Usually you show the ball to the ump after a play. In this case, hitting the ground is part of the tag.
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85bluejay - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#287157) #
happy the Jays won, but I watched the 2nd & 3rd innings and I was terrified - Hendriks pitches seemed to be up and flat and the Rays were teeing off on him - can he survive pitching in the AL East & Rogers Centre or does he need a big ballpark like Seattle? Now, I get a better sense of why he was rocked in his previous ML stints.
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Intricated - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#287158) #
The other angle looks to me like there was no contact by the glove (with ball) and Pillar.  Look for it around 14-16 second range.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v33253241/tbtor-pillar-races-from-first-for-walkoff-win/?c_id=mlb

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John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#287159) #
So Hendriks this year is the #7 starter after Morrow went down and McGowan couldn't handle the innings.  Not bad for a #7.

Last year the order of starters used was Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Johnson, Happ, Laffey, Romero, Jenkins, Ortiz (up to May 10th now), Nolin (May 24th), Rogers (June 7th), Wang (June 11th), Redmond (July 7th). 

So by this point last year the Jays were up to their #10 guy for the rotation (Nolin) with #11 and 12 coming shortly after.  Thus far this year just 7 (knock on wood) with a likely #8 in Stroman having been used in the pen.  Having to use 3 more starting pitchers by this point would've been draining on the team I'm sure.  The first complete game wasn't until June 26th vs Hutch getting his shutout on May 16th.
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Gerry - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#287160) #

Shi Davidi has an article up at Sportsnet discussing the rehab and potential return of Brandon Morrow. He weaves in the Jays lack of cash with Morrow's potential return and suggests Morrow might be the best the Jays can hope for in terms of pitching additions at the trade deadline.

He then drops the bomb that the Jays won't have enough money to spend all they usually do on the draft.

Cue AA coming out to say the Jays have enough money to meet their goals but it will be interesting to see who the Jays select. The Jays have been reportedly likely to select Jeff Hoffman, the college pitcher who just had TJ surgery. As Keith Law noted Hoffman has no leverage, he will still be in rehab when next years draft rolls around, he basically has to take what he is offered. The Jays might take Hoffman to save money.

Link

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China fan - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#287161) #
I agree with those who say that Hendriks deserves another start.  But I don't have much confidence that his high-wire balancing act will be sustainable.  Some of those warning-track blasts are going to start going over the fence, and then his numbers will look a lot worse.  We've seen other pitchers come up from the minors and look good for a couple of games (like Wang last year) until the opposition hitters have figured out the right approach to them, and then they get hammered.  I hope I'm wrong.  He does seem to have good control, which helps a lot.

The Jays, to be safe, need to be thinking about who to add to the rotation if Hendriks (or another starter) needs to be replaced for reasons of implosion or injury.  I don't have as much faith in Stroman as many people do.  I'm just skeptical that he can step into the rotation immediately.  If you combine his Toronto and Buffalo outings as a starter and reliever in May, you'll see that his performance has been rather poor for 5 of his 7 appearances this month.  I'm optimistic about him in the long run, but in the short term he might not be quite ready.

Maybe the Jays need to cobble together the 5th starter from a variety of sources.  That's why I wouldn't entirely rule out Redmond, Nolin, Drabek, Jenkins, Rogers etc, along with Hendriks himself.   All of them have more experience than Stroman, and all of them except Nolin have had some success (sporadically perhaps) in the majors.   Nolin is still on the DL list, as far as I can tell, but he should be back soon.

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Beyonder - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#287162) #
I don't believe any of that Gerry. I have no idea what "war chest" Davidi is referring to, but I will bet that the Jays spend every penny of their 9.5 million dollar slot allotment. For one, it would be a completely false economy to try to save money in an artificially-depressed market like the MLB draft.
Second, how much could they realistically hope to save? A couple of million? At the expense of signing blue chip prospects? This from a team that last year reached for the guy with the highest demands relative to his draft position in the whole draft?

I think Davidi is surmising this on the basis that the Jays didn't add very much new salary this off-season.
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Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#287163) #
For what it's worth, Myers' drive last night just cleared the wall and was classified as "just enough" by Hit Tracker.  So far, Hendriks' HR/FB is 11.1% and his LD rate is 12.5%.  The opponents have been uppercutting, with the result of more fly balls and fewer line drives. 

So far, the opposition BABIP against Hendriks is .133.  That will not continue, and in particular opponents are likely to stop trying to kill the ball.  His expected ERA is probably in the 4.5- 5.0 range, which is pretty good for a 5th-6th starter.  Davidi's article is annoying because it paints Morrow as some kind of potential large improvement on Hendriks.  At this point, he is not that.  Morrow's career ERA as a starter is 4.40, and that weights his good season 2 years ago equally with his struggles of the last 2 years.  Coming off an injury, there is no reason to believe that Morrow is likely to be any better than Hendriks. 

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China fan - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#287164) #
"....His expected ERA is probably in the 4.5- 5.0 range, which is pretty good for a 5th-6th starter...."

Based on what?  This sounds like a pure guess, rather than anything based on actual performance.   His career ERA in the majors, even including his successful high-wire act in his two Toronto games, is still 5.80.
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85bluejay - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#287165) #
The Davidi article is worrying and I think it's very credible - I think the new CEO at Rogers has tightened the purse strings for now - I'm not that concerned about money for the big club as I'm not on the Samardjiza bandwagon because of the prospects cost - I'm very concerned about the implications for the draft though - I'm for drafting Hoffman, but that's because I like him and hoping to save money for a prospect who drops to #50 because of signability problems, not just to save money - I will be extremely disappointed & pissed if the Jays don't use their full draft budget.
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Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#287166) #
Hendriks was burdened by a poor Minnesota defence (this year so far has been payback for him).  His career SIERA is 4.55; his career xFIP is 4.62 in 166 innings.  These measures are probably more reliable predictors of his future ERA than his career  ERA.  In Morrow's case, the 4.40 career ERA is over 610 innings and is probably more reflective of his ability than other measures.
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Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#287167) #
Incidentally, fangraphs now has the Jays projected at 88 wins.  And that is with some awfully conservative projections.  For instance, Juan Francisco is projected to go .242/.299/.462 for the remainder of the year.  His career line is .246/.307/.452, he is 27 years old and he has made obvious improvements this year. 
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#287168) #
And just to add to what Mike is saying, the average HR/flyball rate is about 9.5%. Hendriks this year is at 11.1%, which shows he might even be slightly unlucky thus far. In his career, his HR/FB rate is 14.8%. FanGraphs rates anything around 13% as "Awful" and says this:

"Remember, extreme home run rates in either direction are likely unsustainable…. Taking a glance at a pitcher’s HR/FB ratio can help tell you if a player had an over- or under-inflated ERA. Pitchers with HR/FB ratios much higher or lower than league average will normally regress towards league average in the future, which will have a corresponding effect on their ERAs and FIPs."

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/hrs/
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#287169) #
That, by the way, has been a topic of discussion recently on FanGraphs regarding Justin Verlander. His ERA this year is 4.04 but that's with a 3.1% HR/FB rate. 5.0% is "Excellent," which means he's probably over-performing his true ability. Not a good sign for the Tigers.
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China fan - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#287170) #
"....Hendriks this year is at 11.1%, which shows he might even be slightly unlucky thus far...."

I'm not sure whether it's meaningful to calculate those kinds of percentages for a guy who has pitched less than 12 innings in the majors this season.

In fact, I'm not sure whether it's valuable to be applying any kind of advanced metrics of a guy who has pitched less than 12 innings in the majors this season.  I'd rather trust my own eyes, which show that he came close to disaster several times last night.  Of his 18 outs last night, 7 were warning-track shots.

In his 167.2 career innings, Hendriks has allowed 208 hits, including 32 home runs.  This could catch up to him in Toronto.
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Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#287171) #
If it feels like the Jays are hitting a lot of long home runs, it isn't your imagination.  Here are the Golden Sledgehammer leaders for avg. true distance.  All of the Blue Jay big 6 are above average (Melky Cabrera is the lowest at over 398 ft.).   The Yankees have 3 of the trailers- Teixeira, McCann and Solarte. 

The Royals have major rotation issues. Shields and Vargas open the series, but after that, it is a big question mark.  Maybe Bruce Chen or someone from Omaha (Sugar Ray Marrimon or Aaron Brooks?).
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#287172) #
But I don't quote his HR/FB rate this year to try to make any kind of prediction about Hendriks. (That would be extrapolating from a small sample.) I'm just saying that what's happened in the two games so far isn't really out of the ordinary -- i.e., he might not be getting lucky. One other thing to remember is that the flyballs going as far as the warning track might be the fluke. Everyone's assumption is that in time, the flyballs are going to start leaving the yard. Maybe, but maybe those deep flyballs are going to more typically be medium flyballs. We don't know yet.
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Jonny German - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#287173) #
You Be The Manager (/GM):

Hendriks next start falls on Tuesday June 3 at Detroit. Monday June 2 is an off-day. Do you take the opportunity to skip Hendriks? His next start would then be June 8 home to St Louis.
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rfan8 - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#287174) #
I hope you're right and those warning track flyballs become regular flyballs, as he starts locating better.

If he doesn't, they may start going over the fence with more regularity, when the weather warms up more.


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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#287175) #
Also, one good thing about Hendriks has been his efficiency with pitches thus far. He's gone 5.2 and 6 innings in his two starts, and in both cases could have gone further (based on his pitch count). It's nice to have in a 5th starter like that who spare the bullpen a lot of extra work. Especially when you've already got Happ as the 4th starter.
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Mike Green - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#287177) #
In answer to Jonny's question, I wait to see how Dickey looks tonight.  In 2011 and 2012, he was better on 4 days rest.  In 2013 and 2014 (so far), he has been better on 5 days rest.  He has not been quite as healthy and it may be that the extra day of rest does him so good at this stage of his career. 

My inclination would be to let Hendriks pitch in Detroit.  I think that he'll be able to use the large part of Comerica to his advantage. 
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China fan - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#287178) #
Despite everything I've said, I think Hendriks will pitch on June 3 because the Jays will want their other starters to be as well-rested as possible.  The extra day of rest for all of them will be good for their long-term performance.  And until Hendriks actually does have a bad start, it's possible to hope that he sustains his success.
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TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#287179) #
Jonny, I say pitch him. Give him a chance to get in a rhythm with regular starts and see how he does. I also think Hutchison could use an extra day of rest whenever possible, coming off the injury and with some slight concern at the moment about his velocity.
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Lylemcr - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#287186) #
Let's ride that horse until he proves us other wise.  Hendricks deep fly balls do make me nervous.  Good thing he doesn't have to play against the Blue Jay lineup :)
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John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#287193) #
Good points here about the rotation...
Why to keep on 5 day and skip Hendriks...
1) Hendriks isn't really this good and minimizing his exposure should help
2) Consistency for the rest of the rotation

Why to keep all 5 going...
1) Hendriks is doing well, want to keep pushing him while it is working
2) 2 old starters (Buehrle, DIckey), one recovering from Tommy John (Hutchison), one who generally isn't viewed as really being that good but is hot right now (Happ) thus an extra day helps 3 of those 4 for sure.

Yeah, I'd stick with all 5 for now.
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Jonny German - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#287196) #
Solid arguments for keeping the rotation on course. Funny that nobody mentioned the thing that prompted me to ask - Detroit has been scoring 4.6 runs per game while St Louis is at 3.9.
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uglyone - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#287199) #
Mike brings up a good point about Hendriks siera and xfip sitting around the same place (~4.60), and i agree that's probably the best true talent indicator we have.

Two opposing caveats to that, though:

1) skydome is a hr park. Wouldn't be surprised to see him not able to match his xfip and siera thanks to higher than normal hr rate.

2) he's still young. His career numbers are mostly based on what he had done by age 24. It wouldn't surprise anyone tonsee a 25yr old improve on his previous performance.


I also agree that it's a no brainer to skip past hendriks next time through the rotation, especially since it lines up so perfectly.
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John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#287210) #
I can see skipping Hendriks but as I stated it might be in the teams best interests not to.  Depending on how Dickey & Buehrle are feeling a 6 day rotation might even be a good idea at times.  Not a fan myself, would prefer a 4 man rotation with a 5th mixed in for tough stretches but can see reasons for it.  All depends on factors we cannot see - how the big 3s arems are doing, how they feel in general, how it affects their prep, etc.
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85bluejay - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#287214) #
I would be opposed to skipping Hendriks - the jays need to find out if he can be a regular rotation member or if they have to hide him against good offences & skipping him after 2 decent starts (both of which the team won) sends a no confidence message - for various reasons, I think that Dickey, Buehrle and Hutchinson could use the extra rest - I listened to a radio interview that Hendriks gave in which he mentioned that he is a creature of his regular rotation routine and that the rainouts in Buffalo had played havoc with his rhythm.
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Jonny German - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#287215) #
His ERA would have been lower than 1.48 if not for the rainouts?
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Dave Till - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#287216) #
So the Jays are up by 3 games in the American League East. Wow.

As you probably know, this is the biggest margin the Jays have enjoyed since May 18, 2009, when they were 27-14 and 3 1/2 up. After that, the 2009 Jays fell into a well, losing nine straight, and then it was downhill from there.

The 2000 Jays were 3 up on June 30, 2000. As I recall, the Yankees traded for a whole new ball team right around that point, and the Ash-era Jays couldn't afford to keep up.

The last time that the Jays were 4 up in the AL East? October 3, 1993.
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Dave Till - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#287217) #
That last should be "4 or more up" - they were actually up 7 on the last day of the 1993 season.
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John Northey - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#287219) #
By being up by 3 that means that, no matter what, we will wake up on June 1st with the Jays in 1st.  That will be easily the latest in the season for them outside of 2000 since the World Series years.
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scottt - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#287220) #
The Royals arrive in town having lost their last 4. No reason to be pessimistic now.
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92-93 - Thursday, May 29 2014 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#287221) #
"Hendriks next start falls on Tuesday June 3 at Detroit. Monday June 2 is an off-day. Do you take the opportunity to skip Hendriks? His next start would then be June 8 home to St Louis."

I don't like the idea of skipping anybody, but if I'm going to skip someone it's going to be Drew Hutchison. I know he pitched in the minors and the AFL last year and that he's supposed to be good to go the whole season, but I think they should be very careful with his arm, considering he's their most valuable pitching asset right now and isn't THAT far removed from his Tommy John. The Jays have built a large enough cushion away from .500 that they can afford to roll a 5th starter who has been successful both times out and see what happens. A loss isn't the end of the world right now, provided nobody gets injured and the bullpen isn't decimated by an extremely early exit.
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