Jays catch a break with the Weaver injury, although I'm not sure they'll be able to hit Shoemaker either. The Jays' lineup is pretty mediocre without EE, Lawrie, and a proper second baseman (or third baseman, if Lawrie plays second). Not sure how healthy Bautista and Lind are, either. It's currently a weak lineup.

Adding someone like Headley (whom I suggested as a possible acquisition last year) would be helpful, if the price is right.

The Angels scored that run on a couple of hits, but the first hit (hard hit grounder by Ianetta a step or two to Reyes's right) was a play that could have been made. If Reyes fields the ball, we're still scoreless.

wow, we actually came right back and answered that run in the next ups. when's the last time we did that?

Happ is pitching well so far tonight.

Pat just said "Reimold LOOKS like a ballplayer" and I was about to roll my eyes......when I realized he was right.

Love me some taters from the 9-hole.

and of course, Happ tries to give it right back. jays don't do leads anymore.

and now the ump decides to screw us. perfect timing.

great. more run scoring bloops.

Speaking of heads exploding I just agreed with something Buck and Tabler said. Seriously though, why are the Outfielders sitting on the OF fences? No doubles (all singles) defence in he 5th?

Rasmus has a terrible arm BTW. Never within 10 feet of the target.

West coast trips always seem to be brutal for the Jays, and so far 2014 has been no exception. Oh, and the O's and Yankees have already won tonight. Hard to avoid the feeling that the Jays' season is unravelling. It's a long season, but it's not *that* long.

Well that deteriorated quickly...

For a guy who's supposed to have a good arm, I don't think I've ever seen Rasmus throw out a guy he had no business getting. Not to mention Melky would've had a much better shot (more momentum towards home, stronger arm etc) on that flyball that scored Calhoun.

When you're losing, it's the little things that really drive you insane.

This is going to be a tough series, and we really have to hope Dickey and Stroman are on the ball for us, because surely on paper we aren't going to outscore the Angels. Despite running Ibanez out there most of the year to a tune of .523 OPS, the Angels are 2nd in the AL in OPS.

Tough road trip. I am glad the ASB is coming up.

Somehow the Jays are fourth in the MLB in runs.

Reyes is becoming a disaster out there.

"Somehow the Jays are fourth in the MLB in runs"

probably something to do with being 4th in OPS.

remember when a 3 run deficit just made the impending win more exciting?

I don't think I've ever seen Rasmus throw out a guy he had no business getting.

As a matter of fact... you haven't.

Here are the guys Rasmus has thrown out on the bases since coming to Toronto: Adam Jones, Dustin Ackley, Aramis Ramirez, Mike Aviles, Jonny Gomes, Jayson Nix, Chris Davis, Brian Dozier, James Loney, Francisco Cervelli, Will Middlebrooks. That's the complete list - 11 guys since late July 2011.

2012
Apr 13 - Adam Jones caught in a rundown 8-6-3
Apr 27 - Dustin Ackley at home, trying to score from first on a single 8-4-2
Jun 18 - Aramis Ramirez going 1st to 3rd on bases loaded single. 8-5
Jun 26 - Mike Aviles going 1st to 3rd on bases loaded single. 8-2-6-5
Aug 3 - Jonny Gomes at 2nd on sac fly - 8-2-6
Sep 19 - Jayson Nix trying to score from 2nd on a single 8-2
Sep 24 - Chris Davis caught in a rundown 8-4-6

2013
July 6 - Brian Dozier doubled off 1st base on a flyout 8-3

2014
Mar 31 - James Loney trying to score from 2nd on single. 8-2
Apr 5 - Francisco Cervelli trying to score from 2nd on a single. 8-2
Apr 25 - Will Middlebrooks trying to stretch 2b into 3b. 8-5

There do seem to be quite a few rundowns and relays from other defenders involved in that collection. As small and unimpressive as it is.

colby's tied in 13th amongst CF with 3 assists this year, but only in 50 games. Most of the guys ahead of him have played many more games.

Colby only had 1 assist last year, which is weird as the rest of his defensive stats were elite.

in 2012, he tied in 4th among CF with 7 assists.

in 2011, he tied in 11th with 4, but that was in only 127gms.

Colby only had 1 assist last year, which is weird

Not weird at all if you watched him throw last year. Every throw home was 15 feet up the third base line.

gibber's decision to keep Lind in vs. the lefty may pay off. the Angels only have one lefty left and he's not very good.

Seriously though, why are the Outfielders sitting on the OF fences?

Because the ball gets to you much quicker on artificial turf. Wait a minute....

5 in a row would be a real gutpunch.

rally time.

nope.

Johnny Mac!

There were a number of unexpected developments (Jose Bautista! Marco Scutaro!) during Cito Gaston's second tenure here. But this might be my favourite. This is Johnny Mac's hitting line for Gaston, as opposed to his work for everyone else:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
196	 490	 459	 63	112	23	 2	11	 53	 3	 3	 7	 62	.244	.253	.484	.737
855	2125	1945	211	453	81	12	17	156	31	16	108	308	.233	.279	.287	.567

The man simply had a way with utility infielders. I can't explain it.

DRS has Reyes as a -10 to -15 runs/150G defensive shortstop over the last 3 years.  UZR has him at about -5.  I agree with the DRS account.  It's time to move him to another position.  It is too bad that the club doesn't have another candidate for the leadoff slot because he's not performing that role acceptably either. 

Reyes is owed $66M over the next three seasons with a $4M buyout thereafter. Yikes.

I missed the passing of Jim Brosnan about 10 days ago.  A pretty good pitcher and a fine writer.  After the publication of The Long Season, he was called a "kookie Beatnik" by Joe Garagiola, which is fair praise in and of itself.

And if one is interested in why Reyes hasn't been hitting well, it's pretty easy to track.  The key thing is his ball-in-play distribution is skewed to fewer ground balls and more pop-ups (5% off his career norms).  He hits a home run a couple of times a month, and then he starts uppercutting.  He's 31 years old and has been a great player, but how exactly do you get him to put the effort and focus to use his talent?  Summoning the ghost of Billy Martin in 3,2,1....

Colby Rasmus has had an interesting career run of BABIPs (OPS+ noted alongside):

2009: 282 (89)
2010: 354 (132)
2011: 267 (88)
2012: 259 (86)
2013: 356 (125)
2014: 261 (95)

Career: 296 (102)

We don't actually ever see his average BABIP. It's either feast or famine, making him look really good or quite a bit less than that. I'm reluctant to accept that variability in a hitter's BABIP can be attributed to chance as much as a pitcher's, so perhaps there were things he was doing differently in 2010 and 2013.

"Somehow the Jays are fourth in the MLB in runs" probably something to do with being 4th in OPS.

Let me try this again. Somehow the Jays are fourth in the MLB in runs and OPS.

Obviously they had a nice run there but it feels like they haven't scored more than 2 runs in a game in a very long time.

I know we're in a dark time at the moment but I actually still do have faith in this team -- especially the offense when at full strength.  I think we're a real streaky team but a good one.  Let's see if Dickey can turn this around and pull us out of this funk.  Bautista, Reyes, Cabrera, Colby, I'm also looking at you.

We don't actually ever see his average BABIP. It's either feast or famine, making him look really good or quite a bit less than that. I'm reluctant to accept that variability in a hitter's BABIP can be attributed to chance as much as a pitcher's, so perhaps there were things he was doing differently in 2010 and 2013.

His batted ball profiles were noticeably different in 2010 and in 2013 from other years, and the years were different from each other.  In 2010, he popped up only 5% of the time, much less than he has over each of the last 4 years.  In 2013, he hit more line drives.  Incidentally, Rasmus hasn't had an infield hit all season in 2014; he has (of course) struck out much more than previously, walked less, and has hit more fly balls.  His BABIP on fly balls this year is .067, and on ground balls .180.  Last year, it was .102 on fly balls and .330 on ground balls.  I'd suggest that he's uppercutting the ball more and isn't making as much hard contact.  For what it's worth, on his home runs in 2013, the average speed off the bat was 105.4 mph; this year, it is 103.5 mph. 

I'd venture a guess that he is pressing in a contract year to try to hit more homers and it is messing up his swing. 

I think we're a real streaky team but a good one.

The pitching has been fairly consistent (April to July RA/G): 4.6, 4.1, 4.1, 3.4. League average overall but better than that since the start of May.

The hitting has indeed been very streaky: 4.6, 5.5, 3.9, 2.4. Their aggregate of 4.5 has them sitting 4th in the AL. That's obviously not the team they are at the moment, but what is a reasonable expectation for this offense? 4.5 seems rich for my blood, but I may be in the minority here, or at least would have been back in May. That said, the recent hitting slump has this board awash with pessimism so few are likely thinking 4.5 is their real level now.

At the start of the year, I saw the offense as middlish and the pitching the same for a middlish overall record. The hitting has exceeded my expectations. As an admitted glass half-empty type, I see more offensive over-performers than under-performers so think they have some more slots yet to drop in overall offensive ranking.

I'm not overly concerned quite yet regarding the team. Every team goes through peaks and valleys and clearly this is their valley, or pit. I think before the start of the season if you were asked to take the record they currently have, I think we would have ALL taken it. Once Lawrie gets back and Lind gets the AS Break off, we'll be okay. The pitching has held up and I expect it to stay that way. What they do need is a shot in the arm ie: a trade. Hopefully AA gets Prado AND Headley. It would definitely boost the moral of the team right now. All they need is one break and they'll get on a roll again.

Olympic cyclists pedal to the medal but few else do...The moral of the team would be helped by the addition of Immanuel Kant; I don't know who you would need to trade to acquire him though- I guess whoever you would want to receive if you owned his rights.

I don't doubt they'll start hitting again, i just hope its not too big a hole when they do.

The good news is that i think we're probably getting past the point where we should worry about the starting pitching blowing up, the front four looks like a legit good one, with no easily visible reasons to expect major regression from at this point. Once the team starts hitting even decently again, they should be able to put some nice hot streaks together.

But with the congested playiff race noe if we scuffle much more we'll be in a place where even some decent hot atreaks may not be good enough.

Reyes was my pre-season "player who will disappoint" in the Jays' 2014 prediction thread:

I think Reyes will disappoint. His defense was already questionable before his ankle injury. I think that injury, however much Reyes and the Jays have downplayed it, is going to have a significant impact on his defense, his baserunning, and his health and durability.

He does have 17 SB (in 18 tries) so far, so his baserunning (at least with respect to stolen bases) has actually been pretty solid this year. He has also played 74 of 91 games, which is not bad, although his performance hasn't been all that great. Let's see what he does in the second half.

"At the start of the year, I saw the offense as middlish and the pitching the same for a middlish overall record. The hitting has exceeded my expectations"

Don't think i can agree there.

Bautista/EE is legitmately one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, and probably the best.

Since 2012 (2.5 seasons):

Encarnacion: 1640pa, .931ops, 151wrc+
Bautista: 1295pa, .886ops, 142wrc+

Two more bats that have been very good, though not elite (and one is a strict platoon bat):

Cabrera: 1276pa, .810ops, 123wrc+
Lind: 1072pa, .817ops, 122wrc+

And then five more averagish bats to fill outvthe rest of the order (though two of them are strictly platoon bats, and navarro hasn't really been a fulltime guy before either):

Reyes: 1471pa, .763ops, 107wrc+
Navarro: 622pa, .748ops, 105wrc+
Francisco: 802pa, .747ops, 103wrc+
Rasmus: 1289pa, .748ops, 102wrc+
Lawrie: 1259pa, .720ops, 97wrc+


That is legit one of the best lineups in baseball on paper, imo.


If we compare to some of the other elite offenses in baseball over the same timeframe:

LAA

Trout: 1736pa, .980ops, 172wrc+
------
Calhoun?: 438pa, .823ops, 131wrc+ (hard to say what this kid is)
Pujols: 1495pa, .819ops, 124wrc+
Hamilton: 1446pa, .833ops, 124wrc+
-------
Iannetta: 848pa, .753ops, 116wrc+
Freese: 1344pa, .761ops, 115wrc+
Kendrik: 1483pa, .747ops, 110wrc+
Aybar: 1505pa, .715ops, 100wrc+
Cowgill: 472pa, .676ops, 93wrc+

Pretty close to the jays.


Oakland

Moss: 1145pa, .890ops, 146wrc+
--------
Jaso: 850pa, .806ops, 131wrc+
Donaldson: 1348pa, .809ops, 127wrc+
Cespedes: 1476pa, .792ops, 118wrc+
Crisp: 1385pa, .777ops, 118wrc+
Norris: 758pa, .759ops, 115wrc+
---------
Lowrie: 1410pa, .751ops, 109wrc+
Reddick: 1310pa, .724ops, 99wrc+
Callaspo: 1342pa, .680ops, 94wrc+

Oakland comes pretty close to the jays.



Detroit

Cabrera: 1714pa, 1.002ops, 171wrc+
-------
Martinez: 1008pa, .853ops, 130wrc+
-------
Hunter: 1526pa, .793ops, 118wrc+
Jackson: 1559pa, .774ops, 112wrc+
Kinsler: 1724pa, .767ops, 107wrc+
Avila: 1057pa, .718ops, 100wrc+
-------
Castellanos: 320pa, .698ops, 91wrc+
Davis: 1107pa, .699ops, 90wrc+
Iglesias: 459pa, .679ops, 86wrc+

Don't think they quite match up to the jays.


Orioles

Davis: 1548pa, .880ops, 135wrc+
---------
Cruz: 1477pa, .839ops, 124wrc+
Jones: 1775pa, .825ops, 123wrc+
---------
Markakis: 1585pa, .747ops, 107wrc+
Wieters: 1284pa, .744ops, 99wrc+
Machado: 1161pa, .737ops, 99wrc+
---------
Young: 1091pa, .716ops, 94wrc+
Hardy: 1690pa, .700ops, 88wrc+
Flaherty: 593pa, .660ops, 78wrc+

Don't think the O's quite match up to the J's either.

Don't think i can agree there.

That's why I said my expectations. I wasn't presuming to speak for anyone other than myself.

I wasn't suggesting you were, i was just disagreeing w/evidence. I.e. Discussing the team.

Gotcha. I thought you believed me to making a declarative statement of fact rather than simply my opinion.

Setting aside the merits of the particular methodology you chose to evaluate the offensive skills of the individual players, it's worth being reminded that it was Goins instead of Francisco at the start of the season. That figured to be a huge sinkhole.

yeah, filling that hole was definitely key...though even then IMO it never made sense to go with Goins, and Izturis was clearly the guy who should have been at 2B to start.

Still, though, its surprising seeing similar gaping holes on most other top offenses.

The Jays would currently have a pretty good roster if they'd kept three of the very low-cost players they DFAed or traded for a song over the last couple of years: Chavez, Gomes and Valbuena (strong SP; competent catcher / useful RH bat; adequate short-term fix at 2B).

It seems the Jays often have an idea of whom to acquire on the cheap, but they get impatient or are unsure how to develop them once they have them. I guess one GM's trash is another GM's treasure.

Don't forget how the Jays picked up their two best players.

Can't imagine chavez would have succeeded in Toronto ... he was born to pitch in Oakland, he'd be struggling in the Dome.

JB21, it's a good point, although it should be noted that EE was claimed off waivers by the A's in November 2010 - it was only when EE was non-tendered by the A's that the Jays were able to re-sign him. So the Jays very nearly lost EE, too.

he was born to pitch in Oakland, he'd be struggling in the Dome

Also a good point. It's true that Chavez has been excellent at home this year (2.13 ERA, opponents hitting 219/285/310).

But he's been solid on the road, too: 3.86 ERA, opp. hitting 271/328/380, 58.1 IP, 62 H, 6 HR, 17:61 BB:K.

Fangraphs recently had a piece on his turnaround and the series of adjustments he made to his arsenal (the development of his cutter was key):

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jesse-chavez-is-done-being-mad/

gonna have to move Reyes down to the bottom of the order if he keeps hacking non stop like this.

4 baserunners, 0 runs, thru 2. argh.

and those four baserunners were all on with 1 out or less.

Two on, one out, Tolleson thrown out trying to steal third.

Mastro unable to get the bunt down, then hits into a DP.

Now Dickey walks a second runner aboard in the second.

An inauspicious beginning. Still scoreless, though.

The coaches tell the players not to try and do too much in a losing streak. Then the manager goes and tries to do too much by sending Tolleson to try and steal third.

Dickey looks good again, at least. Like last time.

go reimold go

According to Sportsnet, Reyes has been battling a shoulder injury for the last month, which Reyes says explains his throwing errors.

He also mentioned the loathed RC turf: "Four days off, specifically in the ballpark we play in, with that turf, those days off are going to be good for your body."

If you're a GM and your team is built around older, injury-prone players and you play in a stadium with unforgiving artificial turf, it would seem to be a risky strategy to forego depth and hope that your core players stay healthy over the course of the season. I guess you do the best with what you have, try to hang tough, and hope that you're still relevant come September.

" Then the manager goes and tries to do too much by sending Tolleson to try and steal third."

in case you've given up watching tonight, they just interviewed Gibbons and he said that was not his call.

The coaches tell the players not to try and do too much in a losing streak.

Is it possible Tolleson and Reyes weren't in the room?

Dickey has his era under 4 now for (I think) the first time this year?

check that - he had his ERA down to 3.95 after his start on May 24, the only other time he's had his era under 4 this year.

He's at 3.95 right now after that inning, so he has a chance to get it down to the lowest its been all year tonight.

Unfortunately, Skaggs is right with Dickey, having just got his ERA under 4.00 for the first time since May. Who blinks first?

He's kinda right there with him, where it matters at least.

But the Jays have had 7 baserunners, and the Angels only 2 - and those 2 came on a patented anti-jay pop up bloop texas leaguer to right, and a walk after a silly bad missed strike 3 call.

fingers crossed, but Dickey looks good. Skaggs looks like...well, like we're bailing him out.

Barry Davis @SNBarryDavis
Now a hit with a runner in scoring position. They are now 1-26 on the road trip with RISP. #bluejays also have the lead

Dickey, if we ever needed a quick shutdown inning, right now is the time.

That's my Dickey!!

(and holy crap Reyes made a play!)

@SportsnetTicker: #BlueJays record 3 straight base hits in a game for the first time since June 23. That's a span of 14 games.

Is Bautista injured? He looks hobbled at the plate (although he put a pretty good beating on the dugout bench after he lined out).

I think buck was making a big deal about nothing. He had a couple awkward fastball swings on offspeed pitches, and stretched his back out once, but still had a great at bat and smashed the ball for an unlucky out. And then went axe happy in the dugout.

Doubt that's an injury.

I'm gonna say Cabrera meant to sucker him in like that. #nextleveldefense

I disagree - Bautista hasn't looked right at the plate tonight, although he managed to compensate nicely with a modified swing in that last PA.

Not too often you see six changeups in one at bat. That will get you on your front foot.

he might not look right, greenfrog, but I doubt its injury related. He's absolutely crushed a couple balls tonight, and then crushed his bat in the dugout as well.

edit: REYES! there's a guy making up for some brutal recent play.

Richard Griffin @RGriffinStar
Reyes 2R HR is the first time the #BlueJays have scored 2 runs in one inning in the 54 innings of this road trip.

Reyes is so talented - it's hard to believe he has only a .318 OBP, even after his big night. The Jays will need a big second half from him if they're going to contend.

He was safe, but Reyes looks like a $20m player tonight.

If I'm gibby, I keep Dickey in this one. don't let a couple of rinky dink groundball "singles" panic you.

Looks like Bats is OK.

they can send down mastro whenever.

I formally object to this quick hook of Dickey.

If I'm gibby, I keep Dickey in this one.

This is probably about the 126 pitches he threw his last time out.

Kudos to Gibbons for pulling Dickey when he did - One of the few criticism I've had of Gibbons this year has been his tendency to stick too long with Dickey - in many of his starts this year Dickey seems to hit a wall and goes downhill very quickly - I'm happy Gibbons seems to have learned & adjusted accordingly.

I really liked the gamble on Reimold who's been productive when healthy (a big question mark I know) because he's controllable for 2 more years - with both melky & Colby potential F.A that's a good buy low candidate.

Is Bautista injured?

That might be one of the reason  why  Reimold is in RF and Bautista at 1B. I don't think Bats is 100%.

I do not understand how so many teams passed on Mike Trout. The Jays did take some HS players in 2009, but I do not think that they were going to use their 1st rounder on a HS player.
I am glad that that has changed. This year we took 2 University players and Stroman was also a University pick in the 1st round. I like that philosophy.

Munenori Kawasaki has adapted his hitting approach this year.  Instead of simply fouling off pitches and working counts like John Cangelosi, he is trying to hit line drives like Matty Alou.  It's working pretty well so far- fewer walks, more strikeouts but his ball-in-play rates are very good (35% line drives, 55% ground balls and 10% fly balls), leading to a higher batting average and OBP. 

scouts kind of exist in an echo chamber, and the short answer is - he was doing football, etc, and hadn't been seen all that much because he didn't play in tx, ca, or other places the scouts constantly are. since there was no established hype on him, lots of teams passed. it would be interesting to see what the jays ha don him in the Be(a)st

Teams passed on Trout because he played high school baseball in New Jersey, so there were many doubts about how "real" his talents were. Was he just beating up on really inferior talent, or was he the second coming of Mickey Mantle?

And as for the decision to pull Dickey, you can probably trace that one back, as Magpie noted, to the previous outing on July 3 when he threw 126 pitches in 8 innings.  The decision in that game to leave him in for that long was highly questionable, and seemed to be aimed primarily at giving him the chance to get the win rather than for the team to win the game.  Shall we revisit it?  A's ahead 2-1 going to the bottom of the 8th. Dickey at 105 pitches.  Leaving him to start the inning is dubious, given his overall record this year after 100 pitches.  The first two batters hit line drives.  A run is in and a runner is on third.  Dickey has thrown 109 pitches.  If anyone believes that Dickey is more likely than a fresh reliever to strand a runner on 3rd with nobody out at that point, I'd like to meet him/her.  Callaspo hits a sac fly to deep left on the 0-2 pitch.  It's now 4-1 and Dickey has thrown 112 pitches.  Why is he in the game?  After a groundout and a 4 pitch walk to Brandon Moss to bring up Jed Lowrie, Dickey is now at 121 pitches.  He is still left in the game. Why?  A further 5 pitches and he has his complete game, and the opportunity to win the game if the Blue Jays score 4 runs off the A's bullpen in the 9th.

The bullpen, save for Casey Janssen, was fresh on July 3.  McGowan and Janssen had each thrown an inning on July 2.  Loup and Janssen had each thrown an inning on Canada Day. 

Gibbons ought to have taken out Dickey on July 3 down 2-1 and having thrown 105 ptiches after 7 innings.  If he had done so, he would likely have left him in with the 4-0 lead and 96 pitches after 7 innings last night.  The sooner pitcher won-loss records disappear from stat lines, the better.

In addition to the above points re: Trout there are two more. First, the weather in New Jersey in his draft year was terrible and so Trout played very few games for scouts to see him. Also when the weather forecast is dodgy the national cross-checkers won't fly in to see a prospect because they fear a rainout and a wasted day. without a cross-checkers collaboration it is hard to be a top pick.

Second, a few years prior to Trout another New Jersey guy, Billy Rowell I believe, was drafted high and turned into a bust. That impacts scouts opinion of a state. That is why a lot of scouts were negative on the Jays drafting DJ Davis because Mississippi doesn't have a good draft track record.

Trout was known to be a first-round quality ballplayer from the outset.  He was pretty obviously one of the best 40 players available.  It really shouldn't be that hard to get plenty of looks at him.  New Jersey is not Australia. 

I suspect that the scouts' bias against New Jersey ballplayers after the Rowell experience had a lot to do with it.  As an organization, you have to fight biases against New Jersey prospects, short pitchers like Stroman or whatever.  Get all the information you can and then make an informed decision. 

With so many teams passing on Trout, it's difficult to single out any one team as having dropped the ball (though in retrospect, they all obviously did).

This pales in comparison to the beaten-to-death topic of the Romero vs. Tulowitzki gaffe which is open to fair criticism.

Thanks for the input on Trout. I accept that his pre draft credentials were suspect.
So how about Dalton Pompey. His pre draft background would be considered weak and so he was a late round pick. However he sure is having a great minor league run. He has to be put on the 40 man roster, since he is a 2010 draft pick. Looks like he was injured in 2012. His batting average looks good in his minor league career, bb & SB are outstanding. Great defense.
He should get maybe 450 ABs this year. Being on the 2015 40 man roster makes him a 4th OF candidate for 2015.
Over all not bad. He plays all of 2015 as a 22 year old.

Arismendy Alcantara was called up by the Cubs while Darwin Barney is on paternity leave.   I imagine that Barney could be obtained for a low level pitching prospect now.  He would be an acceptable platoon mate for Kawasaki. 

Gibbons has an interesting lineup decision today.  Despite Adam Lind's general grief with LHPs, he has hit C.J. Wilson to the tune of .294/.429/.647 in 21 PAs.  He has not had much work over the last week, and if ever you were going to start him against a lefty, this might be the game. 

So Kratz up, Gillespie to the DL.

This probably should have been done before gillespie's injury.

And hey, was last night Dickey's most important start as a Jay?

For those looking for some commentator support for their view that the Jays are still in good shape:

Comment From Tommy
Who wins the AL East?

12:09
Dave Cameron: I think I’m still going to stick with Toronto.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-7914/

Dickey's walks and HR allowed are a bit high this year, but (thanks to a solid July so far) his overall line is respectable enough:

119 IP, 110 H, 16 HR, 47 BB, 99 K, 107 ERA+

It would be nice if he could stay hot for a while, as he did from June to September of 2011 and in May and June of 2012.

On a different note, one player the Jays might consider dealing a couple of decent prospects for, if they can absorb the salary, is Beltre. An infield of Beltre, Reyes, Lawrie and EE for 2014 and 2015 would be pretty darn solid. Even if Lawrie is more of a third baseman than a second baseman.

Dickey's always hard to analyze because peripherals don't mean as much with knuckleballers.

But now his era is down to 3.86 this year. 3.55 since opening day. 3.28 over his last 15. And he really seems to be loxking in that knuckler the past couple starts.

Beltre would be an awesome, and really expensive, get.

Dickey is also a good fielder and has a good pickoff move, which gives him some extra value as a SP.

Why don't component stats matter as much for knuckleballers as they do for other SPs? If Dickey walks more batters, gives up more HRs, etc., why is that less relevant for him than for, say, Hutchison or Stroman?

Because knucklers legitimately give up weaker contact than other pitchers, so balls in play for them are not as costly as for most other pitchers.

Let cameron explain it better: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/war-for-knuckleballers/

Kratz catching and Navarro DHing today.  Lind sits.

When evaluating a knuckleballer, you ought to look at RA/9.  In Dickey's case this year, the number is an unhealthy 4.61 (which happens to coincide pretty well with his FIP of 4.54).  He gives up a lower BABIP than most pitchers on the club (that's common for knuckleballers), but more passed balls and unearned runs (also common for knuckleballers).  Dickey has the same ERA as Hutchison, but there's a huge difference in how they have pitched reflected in both RA/9 and FIP.

If last night was the most important, the previous winner was probably April 7, 2013. I still have nightmares.

Potential bad news for the Yankees. Tanaka has headed to NY for an MRI for a sore elbow. If he's done for the year its hard to imagine the Yankees being able to stick in the race unless they make some moves.

Have the Blue Jays ever had a third base coach who takes as many stupid gambles as Luis Rivera? You've got a runner at third with one out and a good contact hitter in Melky coming up. Rivera didn't even look where the ball went before sending Reyes there.

In hindsight, it probably costs the Blue Jays at least two runs if Gameday can be trusted.  Reimold's lineout to Hamilton appears to have been deep enough to score Melky if there had been one out. 

The team has a difficult enough time scoring runs with their full allotment of 27 outs. Now they seem hell bent on giving away outs on the bases and via sacrifice bunts.

Cabrera easily throws out Trout at the plate (with one out). Another dubious decision by a third base coach. Trout had barely touched third base by the time the ball was in Cabrera's glove.

Maybe the third base coaches are suffering from heat stroke?

This is a little league game. Top of the 4th and there have already been 4 errors and a wild pitch. I am guessing that one of the moms brought orange slices. No sign yet.

Scioscia is electing to use his only lefty reliever in the 5th inning, against Rasmus and Kawasaki.

2-12 with RISP. Ugh

So, if Cron becomes a key RBI guy for the Halos, will people start saying the team has become dependent on Cron capitalism?

Ah, Colby. Tough play, but one that could have been made.

Well, I want the last four hours of my life back.

Lind has fracture, likely DL.

The fracture was revealed by an MRI, which Lind had done at his mother's suggestion. Good to know.

Lind likely out 6-8 weeks, reportedly.

Looks like we'll be seeing Dan Johnson. He'll be 35 next month, and he's got a .234/.336/.410 mark in the majors. No platoon split whatsoever, which is unfortunate.

"The curious thing was that they had the righty warmed up, and Albert hit that home run off a lefty. So we were like, `Oh, awesome. They're leaving him in to face Albert,' and he came up with a huge homer."
- C.J. Wilson

Pujols's career splits are pretty even (987 OPS against RHP, 1036 against LHP).

McGowan is much better against RHB (626 OPS against) than he is against LHB (812 OPS against).

Loup is much worse against RHB (707 OPS against) than he is against LHB (492 OPS against).

Probably Gibbons wanted to try to hold the runner close at first. The strategy definitely backfired. He should have worried less about the runner and pulled out all the stops to get the batter out (a point Zaun made after the eighth inning).

hmm. tough loss. especially because it actually felt like we were turning things around a bit. we had their pitchers on the ropes nearly every inning, and i was genuinely surprised when Stro coughed up that 3 run lead so quickly. I choose to feel a bit better about this series loss because I think we showed signs we're coming out of the offensive slump, and because LA is a pretty damn good team. Of course, we really need to beat Tampa now to head into the break on a positive note. A sweep would be nice.

but hey, has there been any more underrated Jay this year than Todd Redmond? dude's been money all year long.

p.s. with the offday tommorrow, I would throw Dickey in Happ's slot in the last game before the break.

"No platoon split whatsoever, which is unfortunate."

Or fortunate, if you always thought one of the problems with Lind was the fact he needs to be platooned at a position where there's zero defensive value. Lind hasn't been hitting much over the last month, so perhaps steady ABs from Johnson can help the offense get going and bridge the gap to when a healthy Lind can return to the lineup and mash RHP again.

The fact that it took 25 days and Lind's mother to get Lind diagnosed properly doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the Jays' medical staff.

No kidding, greenfrog. The failure to ensure that Lind had an MRI after having symptoms for so long gives the impression that the club is interested in minimization of injuries.  There have been a couple of instances of that over the last few years. 

If the diagnosis was done via MRI this isn't that surprising. Presumably nothing showed up on X-ray and there was no reason to suspect a stress fracture. Only the medical staff knows, but it might be the case the the stress fracture has cropped up in the past month of Lind "pushing it". Lind's mother, who is presumably older might have experience with the use of MRI to diagnose stress fractures.

youneverknow -- just speculating.

It is early, but I'm not particularly concerned about Lind going down. He has been hitting like a middle infielder for over a month and Reimold looks like a savvy pickup.

The line between foot bone bruises and fractures is apparently not a clear one.  A bone bruise apparently is essentially a fracture or pre-fracture of the inner spongy part of the bone.  Some damage to the bone resulting from a bone bruise can be detected on MRI but not X-ray.

I don't know why an MRI wouldn't be mandatory for an ballplayer who is not going on the DL after a bone bruise.  It seems crazy to me, in light of the literature.

He has been hitting like a middle infielder for over a month...

It's not a coincidence that it's been nearly a month since Lind's original injury occurred -- June 14.

Or fortunate

Johnson is mediocre against everyone. If he had a big platoon split, that's something you could use. Hide him against the guys he can't hit, play him against the ones he can. But there's nothing like that here to take advantage of.

Reimold looks like a savvy pickup

That part I agree with.  When Lawrie returns, the club can platoon Tolleson and Kawaski at second base, have Johnson at first base and Francisco/Reimold at DH, with Reimold also giving an occasional day off to Cabrera and Bautista.  They should be all right from then until Encarnacion returns.  Somehow they've got to stay right where they are until Lawrie returns. 

The heat is on Gibbons.  I don't think that he's had a bad season- rather one with some ups and downs.  With all the injuries, he's got to raise his game for the next few weeks.  That goes for Rivera as well; Rivera's mistakes will ultimately be held against Gibbons.

So, the net effect of the misdiagnosis is that (a) Lind will be back in early to mid-September instead of early to mid-August; and (b) the Jays got a relatively weak month's worth of performance from their DH since June 19, the date Lind resumed play (Lind's OPS has dropped by about 40 points since then, and he has been hitless since July 3).

That, and presumably injured players on the team will now be unsure whether they're getting the best advice from the medical staff, or whether it would be prudent to get a second opinion.

Johnson is mediocre against everyone. If he had a big platoon split, that's something you could use. Hide him against the guys he can't hit, play him against the ones he can. But there's nothing like that here to take advantage of

I am with 92-93 on this one.  At this particular point, mediocre performance from the club's first baseman would be fine.  Both first baseman are injured, and anything above replacement value is a bonus.  I think that Johnson can do a little better than that. 

Johnson looks like a pretty good depth pickup by the Jays. He's a career 236/337/411 hitter in the majors. I'm sure the Jays would take that over the next month or two. Of course, it's possible that he's now more of a 675-725 OPS ML player.

One more thing about Johnson.  He has played his career in poor environments.  That line adds up to 100 OPS+ (101 RC+).  He's been a slightly above-average defensive first baseman over his career according to the metrics.  Now whether he is good at 34 as he was at 27 is another thing entirely.  The odds are against that, but his minor league lines in Buffalo this year are consistent with very little deterioration of his offensive skills.

You gotta love his approach. Career 13.2bb% and 14.8k%. Guy knows how to work at bats. Can't post a decent average but he's got patience and power, which shouldnplay, especially in the dome.

Stole this from another board:

" According to Blair:

1) The Jays are pretty pi$$ed with Lind right now. According to people with the Jays, the Jays were asking all along how he was doing and he said he was doing fine. Eventually he said it wasn't getting better and the Jays arranged for the MRI. They don't like that he presented it as though his mom told him to get an MRI and he went, independently, and did so.

2) The "six to eight weeks," Blair is told, is from the point of the original injury, not from yesterday."

Reyes is playing with a shoulder injury? Who's healthy?

Is A.A. going to get off his butt and do something? Or, as is expected, written the season off already.

Giving up prospects with so many holes now, would be very foolish

The Jays since at least AA has been running the show have had a bunch of instances of trying to rush injured players back instead of taking a 15 day DL stint. The players come back quickly but then play terribly while they aren't 100%.

Rasmus has hit 186/272/372 since returning. Is he fully healthy?

Bautista's hit 194/237/306 since coming back and clearly still isn't 100%. If he had gone on the DL and missed 15 days he'd have been eligible to return July 8. I'm confident Pillar could have covered that 194/237/306 that've gotten from Bautista and they might have a fully healthy Bautista ready to play OF and run the bases right now.

Giving the players an extra week to get healthy would help the team more in the long run than having them come back and play terribly

I do agree with this....players are often brought back prematurely or their rehab stints in the minor are too short.

I have always liked AA but am beginning to wonder

Just thinking out loud, I wonder what the chances are that LaCava is the GM next season.

I agree with PeterG.  If anything the Jays should be sellers at the deadline. This team has holes everywhere.  They have won 7 of their last 22. 

Stick a fork in them, they are done.

If the club gives up, they have some 'splainin to do.  The line at the beginning of June was "we'll decide what to do in a month".  They were in first place on Canada Day, and pretty clearly needed help (well, actually quite a bit before that).  Nothing was done. 

Now that there's plenty of room on the bandwagon, I can finally stretch my legs!

It was standing room only before this bump in the road.  Falling off might have been painful for a few folks.

Do you really want to hear Beeston dance around the real reason, Rogers not allowing AA to add any $ to the payroll? I don't need the verbal diarrhea.

AA should never have made The Trade if there was any chance his flexibility for 2014 would be compromised. I really don't understand how you can part with assets to guarantee Jose Reyes & Mark Buehrle 30% of your payroll.

"Stick a fork in them, they are done."

They are absolutely not done. Most of us would've been thrilled if you told us this is where they would be heading into the All Star break. All they need to do is start hitting as their track records suggest and they will be just fine. An acquisition here and there would really help too.

I am leaning towards selling (not a fire sale)....but we need to see the next two weeks of play first.

certainly any pending FA's, that are not re-signed(Cabrera and Janssen) should be dealt  if team is more than 5 games out.....

I would make every effort to sign Melky but if it can't be done, he might bring a nice return...

Rasmus is obvious.....but I am not even sure he could be moved for a C level prospect at this point.

I agree with PeterG.  If anything the Jays should be sellers at the deadline. This team has holes everywhere.  They have won 7 of their last 22. 

Stick a fork in them, they are done.

I might agree with you if the rest of the AL East wasn't just as bad with "holes everywhere." I mean, someone has to win this division and nobody looks like they can or should...but someone (most likely one of Toronto/Baltimore/New York, and especially most likely Baltimore or Toronto) will.

The Jays aren't done - not yet, anyway. They're only 2.5 GB. Baltimore is a decent team but they have some weaknesses (not the least of which is Wieters's absence). If the Yankees lose both Tanaka and Sabathia for the season, well, they probably aren't going to go far. The Rays and Red Sox are well off the pace (though the Rays could sneak back into contention - the Jays would be wise to win this next series).

It's too bad the Jays don't have a stronger farm system to deal from. The hot commodities are Norris, Pompey and maybe Sanchez (not sure how other teams are valuing him), maybe Barreto if you want to drill down further. But the Jays can ill afford to lose those players.

I think AA is going to have a tough time coming up with a match. Which might not be the worst thing for the organization.

Beltre is one of the few players that would seem to be a good fit, but the prospect price would be high (probably Norris and Pompey, for starters) and I doubt Rogers would permit AA to add that much salary. A lesser acquisition that doesn't deplete the system of the above prospects seems more likely.

The AL east is so weak that I don't see the Jays becoming sellers - What I don't think they should do is give up quality prospects like Sanchez/Norris and esp. positional players like Pompey - I think they can be both sellers and buyers on a more modest scale - certainly if there is a market for Rasmus, Santos (I don't see the jays picking up his expensive option),Thole, Happ etc. then I'm o.k to move them or secondary prospects like McGuire/Nolin/Pillar/Burns - the jays need to see how they adapt to the injuries & perhaps wait until closer to July 31st to decide whether to make a "go for it" type trade.

One thing I liked about the Samardzija trade (acknowledging that Epstein appears to have garnered a very good return) was how early it was made. Beane got one of the most desirable arms out there (plus a pretty good rental), he beat the competition to the punch, and he landed both arms for an extra month in 2014, which is not insignificant. As he did with Kazmir in the off-season, Beane looked around for the best value on the market and then went after it aggressively.

Sometimes it pays to wait for the bargain bin options (AA's MO of late); sometimes it pays to move swiftly.

One of the risks of giving up a ton for Beltre or Utley is that they might break down on the RC turf. I seem to remember Washington resting Beltre for at least one game for that reason when the Rangers visited Toronto.

Glass half full: only 2.5 GB
Glass half empty: Baltimore has made up 10 games on us (7-8 game lead, 2.5 GB now)

Starting with the Cardinals series, where things started to go downhill (including the 1st win), the Jays are
11-21 (last 32 games). Win distribution has been this (R / GM / W: #runs, how many times they scored this many, how many wins they got when scoring this many)

R GM  W
0:  5 - 0 (obviously you don't win when you're shutout)
1:  4 - 0
2:  5 - 0
3:  5 - 1
4:  6 - 3
5+:  7 - 7

When scoring 5 or more, Jays have won 7/7. When scoring 4, 3/6. So, 4+, won 10/13. When scoring 3 or less: 1/19. IIRC, you're not expected to win with 3 runs or less, so I guess this is more or less as expected. The real problem is: we scored 3 runs or less 19 games out of 32 - we need to decrease this number, but how?

Pitching seems ok: we won half the games where we scored 4, and 7/7 for 5+ runs - so no real pitching disasters..

Will Jeff Hoffman be a viable candidate for the 2016 Rotation or must we wait until 2017? Is Sean Nolin a viable candidate for the 2015 or 2016 Rotation?

Stroman and Hutchison are doing well this year and look to be with us for another 3-4 years, if not much, much more. The question is not too significant as Dickey, Buehrle and Happ (option year) should and will be back in 2015, but only Dickey (option year) could be back in 2016. Say goodbye to Morrow, the sooner the better.

Trades happen. It's not about who you lost, it's about where you go from here. If it's necessary to trade Sanchez and Norris, it's not the end of the world. I think we've got better coming up behind, hot on their tail.

Oh my God. What happened? Can someone fix this disaster?

becoming sellers when we are ~2 gms out of two different playoff spots, with no other teams ahead of us, would be embarassing and rather stupid.

One thing the Jays could do to help themselves is start playing crisper baseball. That last game against LAA was very winnable. A number of boneheaded plays resulted in a loss. The Jays didn't need Price or Utley to win that one. They should be 1.5 GB (0.5 GB if you count the game against the Twins when Reyes threw one away with the Jays leading and two out in the ninth) - to name a couple of games.

O's are up 4-0 against the Nationals. Showalter certainly has his club playing good baseball right now.

It doesn't hurt that Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce are a combined +4.9 fWAR this year (same as Melky and EE combined). Cruz and Pearce are earning a combined $8.8M this year - slightly more than Rasmus ($7M / -0.1 fWAR).

I wonder if instead of promoting Dan Johnson, the jays may claim Clint Robinson, whom the Dodgers just designated - he was in the jays system last year.

J.Reyes: 1.8war, $16.0m ------- N.Markakis: 1.5war, $15.0m
J.Bautista: 3.4war, $14.0m --- A.Jones: 3.6war, $13.0m
E.En'cion: 3.1war, $9.0m ------ N.Cruz: 2.6war, $8.0m
M.Cabrera: 1.8m, $8.0m -------- J.Hardy: 1.5war, $7.0m
C.Rasmus: -0.1war, $7.0m ------ C.Davis: 0.0war, $10.35m
A.Lind: 1.1war, $7.0m --------- M.Wieters: 0.6war, $7.7m
B.Lawrie: 1.5war, $0.5m ------- M.Machado: 1.6war, $0.5m
J.Francisco: 1.1war, $1.35m --- S.Pearce: 2.3m, $0.7m
D.Navarro: 0.3war, $3.0m ------ J.Schoop: 0.1war, $0.5m

A.Gose: 1.0war, $0.5m --------- D.Lough: 0.5war, $0.5m
S.Tolleson: 0.5war, $0.5m ----- C.Joseph: 0.3war, $0.5m
N.Reimold: 0.2war, $0.5m ------ D.Young: 0.5war, $0.5m
M.Izturis: 0.2war, $3.0m ------ N.Hundley: 0.1war, $4.0m
M.Kawasaki: 0.2war, $0.5m ----- R.Flaherty: 0.2war, $0.5m
E.Kratz: 0.1war, $0.5m -------- S.Clevenger: 0.0war, $0.5m
J.Thole: -0.1war, $1.25m ------ S.Lombardozzi: -0.4war, $0.5m




M.Buehrle: 2.0war, $18.0m ----- U.Jimenez: 0.5war, $11.3m
D.Hutchison 1.7war, $0.5m ----- C.Tillman: 0.8war, $0.5m
M.Stroman: 1.0war, $0.5m ------ K.Gausman: 0.6war, $0.5m
R.Dickey: 0.9war, $12.0m ------ W.Chen: 0.9war, $4.1m
B.Morrow: 0.3war, $8.0m ------- M.Gonzalez: 0.2war, $0.5m
J.Happ: 0.7war, $5.2m --------- B.Norris: 0.5war, $5.3m

C.Janssen 0.6war, $4.0m ------- D.O'Day: 0.8war, $3.2m
B.Cecil 0.6war, $1.3m --------- R.Webb: 0.8war, $1.8m
A.Loup 0.6war, $0.5m ---------- Z.Britton: 0.8war, $0.5m
T.Redmond 0.6war, $0.5m ------- T.McFarland: 0.3war, $0.5m
D.McGowan 0.2war, $1.5m ------- T.Hunter: 0.2war, $3.0m
S.Santos -0.2war, $3.8m ------- B.MatuszL -0.4war, $2.4m
C.Jenkins 0.0war, $0.5m ------- B.Brach: 0.1war, $0.5m
S.Delabar -0.4war, $0.5m ------ E.Meek: -0.3war, $0.8m
E.Rogers -0.2war, $0.5m ------- J.Stinson: -0.1war, $0.5m

So, pretty similar, with the O's apparently getting a bit better WAR value overall for their dollar, largely because of Pearce and a few of the high-salary players on the Jays' side.

As far as the big picture, the Jays' payroll is about $25M higher than the Orioles' and the O's are up a few games in the standings.

The O's really salvaged the Ubaldo signing with the additions of Cruz and Pearce.

The sad thing is Baltimore had designated Pearce earlier this season and he rejected the Jays claim on him. And so the season turns ......

I don't blame people for jumping on and off the bandwagon for 2013 and 2014 teams. Both teams have had prolonged periods of looking very good and very bad within a season -- I don't remember 1989 or 1986 well enough, but it can't possibly be that those seasons were more frustrating to watch. The 2003 team seems similar to what we've a good team through June that faded. I don't remember feeling as frustrated by their misfortune and there was the calming influence of Doc at the top of the rotation.

Will Jeff Hoffman be a viable candidate for the 2016 Rotation or must we wait until 2017? Is Sean Nolin a viable candidate for the 2015 or 2016 Rotation?

You certainly don't want to be asking that kind of question in relation to Hoffman.  What you hope for is that he makes a full recovery from the TJ and regains effectiveness while under team control.  Maybe he is in the major league rotation in 2016, maybe in 2017, maybe he is in the high minors at the start of 2017 and goes into the major league bullpen at the end of the year, and maybe none of the above. 

As for Nolin, he had a groin strain which affected his pitching in May and June.  He hasn't pitched for 3 weeks.  If he comes back later this month and pitches well the rest of the year, he will have a shot at a major league job in 2015.  Otherwise, he won't. 

The American League is now 100-87 vs. the National League this year.  So, BBRef has the A's and Angels as far and away the best teams in the majors by its schedule-adjusted measure (SRS).  Which does put the Jays' struggles on their West Coast trip in perspective (particularly in light of the spate of injuries).

Bautista is playing first base tonight.  Johnson is the DH and bats 8th. 

8th is fine. I'm not sure about Ramus 7th and Francisco 9th, though.