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The Jays need a run of six or seven in a row or nine of ten to get back into it. Will it start tonight?

Friday: Drew Smyly vs. Marcus Stroman

Saturday: Jeremy Hellickson vs. Mark Buehrle

Sunday: Chris Archer vs. Drew Hutchison



The Tampa pitchers have been hot recently and that has helped Tampa get back to within three games of .500. If Tampa were to sweep the series they and the Blue Jays would be tied with .500 records.

Other News

Manny Machado is out for the season, he will have to have knee surgery.

Boston has signed Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo for $72M over 6 years. I never heard that the Jays were in the mix, the money probably made it unlikely.

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Magpie - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#292410) #
Lollygaggers, skip.
greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#292411) #
Embarassing lack of hustle by Rasmus on that play, allowing Kiermaier to turn a single into a double on a base hit up the middle.
Mike Green - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#292412) #
Brother. Bobble, bad throw, failure to scoop.  All you need is one of them to do a better job and you've probably got a double play. 
JB21 - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#292413) #
You forgot the double clutch to start the attempted DP.
greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#292414) #
Question: player talent aside, is the Jays' coaching staff doing enough to prepare the team to compete? Rasmus's non-play and the play where Tolleson shifted to left of second, only to have Longoria hit a two-strike outside pitch right where Tolleson would normally have been positioned, make me wonder.
Magpie - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#292415) #
One of these teams is just playing out the string. Oddly enough, it's not the team that's in fourth place.
Spifficus - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#292416) #
The Tolleson non-play is just a case of living by the sword and dying by the sword. On par, it looks like they've done pretty well on shifts this year, per a timely ESPN article.
katman - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#292418) #
Angels desperately need a pitcher. Jays really need solid position players for 2015 and beyond.

Dangle J. Happ to the Angels, in exchange for position help, and slot in Norris? If so, whom would you ask for, as a reasonable exchange for Happ?
Alex Obal - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#292419) #
Joe Maddon is very underpaid.
greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#292420) #
I guess it could be a case of the Jays giving Longoria the right side of the infield, the way other teams do with Bautista.

I've always been intrigued by Smyly. In Cobb, Archer, Moore, Smyly and Hellickson, the Rays could end up having pretty good starting pitching again next year. I expect them to have a competitive team in 2015.
greenfrog - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#292421) #
And Odorizzi, of course.
JB21 - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#292422) #
At this point I'm just excited for this game to end so I can watch the Angels & A's play.

Might be a good time to take a break from Blue Jays baseball for a bit... sigh.
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#292424) #
If it seems like the Jays have been getting hurt by balls and strikes calls this year, well, they have. Dead last in MLB when you combine offense and defense. The author, Jeff Sullivan, writes:

"As far as the Blue Jays are concerned, they've had below-average framing, and they've also been hurt by framing at the plate. That's at least partially explained by sharing a division with guys like Christian Vazquez, Brian McCann, Jose Molina, and Caleb Joseph. All those guys are established or developing quality receivers."

I'd say the priority for next off-season is the same as last off-season -- get a catcher.
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#292425) #
Who's more responsible for the Four runs, Stroman or Loup? I was working a 12 hour shift, and couldn't follow the game.
smcs - Friday, August 22 2014 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#292426) #
At this point I'm just excited for this game to end so I can watch the Angels & A's play.

I don't get the opportunity to watch a lot of the A's when the Jays aren't playing them. Is it just me, or do they have announcers that are incredibly homer?
JB21 - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#292427) #
Not just you. I personally don't mind it at all, as long as they're not senile/blind. I like a little cheering for the home team though.

One of the perks of living on the West Coast is there are a lot of fun teams to watch. Plus, not to mention, Vin Scully.
John Northey - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#292432) #
Kind of surprised no one is talking about Rusney Castillo.  Red Sox blow $72 million on another Cuban outfielder.  A bit short (5'9") most projections I've seen say 'Rajai Davis' for a comparison with some saying his peak could be Brett Gardner.  Could be worth it for them, but would it have been for the Jays?  Hard to say.
uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#292436) #
Another embarassing, lazy, mistake filled non performance from our jays. Mailing it in.
uglyone - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#292438) #
Speaking of Castillo, ron davenport at bp has had some pretty good success translating cuban numbers to mlb numbers. He nailed Abreu with an ops projection in the .960s.

According to these preojections, Castillo's two best years in cuba translate to .666 and .609 ops in the majors. Yikes.

Even worse is that last year he was way way worse than those two best years. His cuban stats were not even as good as Alexei Ramirez', a guy whose only value has been his great glove.....except Castillo doesn't project to that kind of defense. His stats are similar to a guy like Jose Linares, who never made it past AAA here.

Bigtime scouting gamble by the Sox here.
John Northey - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#292439) #
Wow.  If that is who Castillo is then the Red Sox could have a lot of pie on their faces next year.  There has been a lot of talk about how much muscle he added since leaving Cuba... hmm...tons of weight/muscle added in a very short time with a major contract possible if he can just impress enough at a camp.  Am I the only one seeing major PED alarm bells ringing?  Might explain why the Red Sox are debating not having him up in the majors this year but just doing camp type stuff to get him 'game ready'. 

Thinking about it, if I am a ML team I'd be asking any international free agent to do drug testing first before signing just to know what I'm getting into with them.  But geez, if his best two years were in the 600's for projected OPS then even if he did PED up all you could hope for would be in the 700's I'd think (at best).  That isn't worth over $10 mil a year, guaranteed well past his age 30 season.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#292440) #
That was some comeback by the Mariners last night.  Check out Ackley scoring the insurance run.
JB21 - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#292442) #
I saw that as well, scored on a single from first.

I would love to see the Mariners make the playoffs. A) to see El Rey pitch in the playoffs, and B) for the Yankees to have to watch Cano in the playoffs.

Also, great game last night by the Angels/A's. Fun series this weekend. It's really too bad about Richards. PS they play at 6pm PST tonight on SN1.
China fan - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#292448) #
Noah Syndergaard allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings for the Las Vegas 51s last night, and his ERA rose to 4.85 at the AAA level this year.

Aaron Sanchez, meanwhile, has just struck out Evan Longoria with a 99 mph fastball, reducing his major-league ERA to 1.50.

So far I think Anthopoulos made the right decision on which of those two pitchers to keep.

Hodgie - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#292449) #
ogator - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#292450) #
It was also a good idea to get Toronto's AAA pitchers out of Vegas and into Buffalo.
JB21 - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#292451) #
I think it's WAY too early to say Sanchez > Syndergaard. While his ERA is terrible, his K's & BB's per 9 are fine, his HR per 9 is good, and his opponents BABIP is .380. Vegas is not a great environment to pitch in.
JB21 - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#292452) #
Colby just said "I just got that shit down" on National TV. Love it.
CeeBee - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#292453) #
So, will the protest be upheld and the game replayed from the point where Myers was or wasn't picked off? Sure would suck for the Jays if it did.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#292454) #
I'd be shocked if the protest were upheld.
Gerry - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#292455) #
The umpires got the call right, so I don't see the game being replayed because the end result was not wrong. The process might not have been in accordance with the rules but the score was right. Protest denied, book it.
Gerry - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#292456) #
Sergio Santos recalled, corresponding move to come tomorrow. Drabek?
John Northey - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#292457) #
How odd.  Why call up Santos now instead of waiting a week and doing it September 1st when you don't have to send anyone down? 

The pen isn't tired - Sanchez/Janssen/McGowan used today, 17-21 pitches each.  Cecil (14), Drabek (34), Loup (22), Redmond (14) the day before.  Thus it is reasonable to think Redmond, Loup, Cecil are fully available while everyone used today is partially available tomorrow.

Hutchison is going tomorrow, and is a crapshoot lately as to what to expect but 2 of his last 3 games were 7+ IP (5 2/3 inbetween).  I don't think a 'oh crap we need lots and lots of relievers' should be the situation and if it was then Santos isn't exactly the ideal guy to fill in a batch of innings (more a 1 or 2 inning guy at most). 

Makes me wonder if a trade is coming tonight or tomorrow morning and the Jays called up Santos to ensure he is fresh for tomorrow (ie: on his way to Toronto tonight to get a good sleep before tomorrow).
Mike Green - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#292460) #
As Hodgie suggested, the strike zone was very wide.  Molina is very good at pulling back pitches, but you can tell if you know what to look for. 
greenfrog - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#292461) #
The M's signing of Cano is looking pretty good at the moment. We'll see how the contract plays out over time, but he has been a difference-maker this year (five-win player so far). The Jays would likely be squarely in the WC hunt had they, not Seattle, signed Cano (I doubt he would have signed in Toronto, though).

Sometimes the bold and expensive move in free agency pays off.
dan gordon - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#292464) #
On The Fan 590, they speculated that Janssen was having some kind of arm trouble, and he might go on the DL. Janssen certainly hasn't been his usual reliable self lately. There was also that illness that cost him a few days and 7 pounds recently. Santos has been terrific in AAA, ERA of 0.00, only 3 hits allowed in 10 2/3 innings, with 16 K's, although the walks are still too high, at 6.

They also seemed to think the Rays had a pretty good chance at winning their protest. The rule states that a play can't be reviewed after the start of the next play, and, according to the rule, the start of the next play is considered to be when the pitcher steps on the rubber and the batter is in the batter's box, both of which were true when Gibbons came out to ask for the review.
JB21 - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#292465) #
I doubt he would have signed in Toronto, though

I very feel strongly that if the Jays came in and offered him $240 million over 10 years he would've signed here in a heartbeat. Especially with all of the Spanish hombres on the team. Cano is really good friends with Encarnacion as well.

Re: the Replay, I agree with Gerry. I also read that ultimately the Ump makes the call if it was protested in a timely fashion or not.
Chuck - Saturday, August 23 2014 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#292466) #
On The Fan 590, they speculated that Janssen was having some kind of arm trouble, and he might go on the DL.

He certainly seemed to be grimacing as he was pitching. I can't recall if that's just his natural intense look, or if it might be a sign that he's pitching with some pain.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#292469) #
Janssen's pinpoint control hasn't been present for a while, and his control of his curveball hasn't been there at all.  He might be grimacing because he is in pain, or grimacing because he is frustrated with himself.  Or a bit of both.  I did notice that it looked like he had to work himself up to the sprint in from the bullpen rather than the natural ready run that occurs when he's right. 
Chuck - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#292470) #
Mark Buehrle's 13-year streak of 200-inning seasons may come to an end this year. He needs 39 innings in his 6 remaining starts, an average of 6.5 innings per start which is slightly more than he's been averaging this season. If the games become meaningless, as it appears they will, Gibbons may let him stay out longer to achieve the milestone. In fact, with the off-days, the team could even squeeze a 7th start out of him.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#292471) #
They also seemed to think the Rays had a pretty good chance at winning their protest. The rule states that a play can't be reviewed after the start of the next play, and, according to the rule, the start of the next play is considered to be when the pitcher steps on the rubber and the batter is in the batter's box, both of which were true when Gibbons came out to ask for the review.

The rule also states it's up to the crew chief as to whether a review request is timely, and the crew chief has final word.
Mike D - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#292473) #
I very feel strongly that if the Jays came in and offered him $240 million over 10 years he would've signed here in a heartbeat.

I agree. Other than perhaps Carlos Beltran a few offseasons ago, I don't think there have been any significant free agents to have left money on the table to choose somewhere over Toronto. If the Jays miss on a free agent target, it's because they're offering fewer dollars. Often much fewer (although this is because of non-competitive term rather than non-competitive annual salary).
China fan - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#292476) #
Seems very unlikely that the Rays protest will succeed.  In his post-game comments, umpire Bob Davidson made it clear that he was watching the whole thing closely and simply made a judgement call that Gibbons left the dugout in time.  It's hard to overrule a subjective call of that kind, since it's within the umpire's discretion to decide whether the manager came out from the dugout before the pitcher returned to the mound. There's no objective criteria to assess the manager's progress from the dugout to the field -- it's a subjective call, and hard to overrule.

Davidson made some amusing comments on Gibbons and his perennially slow amble:  "Hes coming out and hes not a speed merchant, and I thought, its on time."
John Northey - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#292478) #
Given the Jays lineup card it seems Drabek has been sent back to AAA to make room for Santos.
Mike D - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#292480) #
The equities of the case don't favour Tampa Bay. Pretty hard to argue that a game result must be invalidated because a marginally late challenge, which didn't come after any subsequent game action and was allowed by the crew chief, prevented an incorrect call from standing.
Mike Green - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#292482) #
...and the rule contains a rather strongly worded protection for umpires making calls about the timeliness of challenges.  The legal equivalent would be a privative clause. Just think, in Toronto in 1937, a lawyer could get himself in a whole heap of trouble just by mentioning equities and privative clauses in public on a Sunday.
China fan - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#292486) #
Nice to see Hutchison and Buehrle both returning to strong form in the past two days.  Bodes well for the rotation.

Not so nice to see Bautista arguing a strike call and getting himself ejected from a close game.  The Jays need him in the game.  He needs to restrain himself.

JB21 - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#292487) #
I disagree strongly. That Ump decided he wanted to be part of the game and threw Joey out for a pretty standard argument. He didn't show him up at all nor did he swear (you could hear Jose say he didn't curse after he was tossed). Umps needs to be consistent and 99.9% of the time the player does not get ejected for what Jose did.
China fan - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#292488) #
But why did he even take the risk?  Why give the umpire any excuse?  What's the point of arguing anyway, since it had very little chance of resulting in anything positive?  We all know Bautista's reputation for arguing strikes, which means he has a higher risk of being ejected anyway, so why take a chance?

By getting himself thrown out of the game, Bautista may have cost his team the game.  His replacement, Reimold, looked bad on that 10th inning double that Bautista would probably have caught.

AWeb - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#292489) #
I was at the unfortunate game on Friday, which was a humiliating experience just watching (sloppy, no hustle, can't hit, walks galore, etc). I miss yesterday entirely. Today, I tune in just in time to watch someone whiff on a flyball in extra innings. Sigh. I really need to stop watching. Or the Jays need to play better, but that doesn't seem realistic anymore.  I'm all in for a tear-down after this season. I don't see any realistic upside to this roster beyond this year's performance. As I write, the JAys have 2 on, no out in the 10th. Don't like their chances.
obo - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#292490) #
Any time you argue balls and strikes you're running the risk of being thrown out.  The ump pointed to the dugout, a clear warning, but Jose said something extra and got himself tossed.  Would have helped if Gibbons had been quicker to arrive as well.
AWeb - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#292491) #
Two week early count popups and a K. Awful.
China fan - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#292492) #
Gibbons is making it very clear that he wasn't pleased with Bautista's decision to argue with the umpire.  "Bottom line we need him in the game. Say your piece. Get the hell out of there....  We're trying to get into the playoffs."

BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#292493) #
That was really not a good series. They pretty much have to sweep Boston and take 2/3 against NYY next weekend to be sort of in it at the start of September.
Magpie - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#292495) #
That was the fifth ejection of Bautista's career (one in 2010 and 2011, twice in 2013.) That's nowhere close to being the team record. George Bell (really, who else would it be?) was ejected 10 times from 1984-89. Roberto Alomar and Lloyd Moseby were each tossed 4 times as a Jay. Todd Stottlemyre got booted 3 times. I can't think of anyone else who'd be in the running (that I didn't already look at!). You'll be shocked to learn that John Olerud played almost 20 years without ever being ejected from a game.

I was expecting Gibbons to get tossed as well; he needs just one more to tie Cito Gaston with 28 ejections as Blue Jays manager. Gibbons started the year tied with Bobby Cox, who needed just 4 years here to get kicked out of 25 games. Others: Jimy Williams (10), Roy Hartsfield (8), John Farrell (5), Jim Fregosi (5), Carlos Tosca (5), Bobby Mattick (4), Buck Martinez (2), Tim Johnson (1)
Chuck - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#292503) #
You'll be shocked to learn that John Olerud played almost 20 years without ever being ejected from a game.

I wonder if in those 20 years his heart rate even ever elevated above normal. That was one stoic cat.

ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 24 2014 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#292506) #
For Bautista to continue to argue after the umpire warned him to stop was selfish and not very smart, especially when he is the perceived leader of the team. On a related note, an article on Sportsnet on today's game mentioned that Pitch Trax called the two pitches Bautista argued about strikes while Pitch F/X called them balls. Does anybody know which system is regarded as most accurate?
Magpie - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#292508) #
As everyone knows, Bobby Cox sailed past John McGraw to end up with 161 ejections, the most ever. It's much, much easier to get kicked out of a game now than it was a hundred years ago - McGraw had to really work for his 131 ejections, 14 of which came as a player. I naturally began to wonder which player would be the all-time champ of getting ejected. I didn't think it would be George Bell. Naturally, the first guy I checked was Ty Cobb (15). Which pales alongside Milton Bradley's 19 ejections in a much shorter career.

But the all-time champ? Kicked out of 50 games? A record that (I guarantee!) will never be broken. Meet Hall of Fame second baseman Johnny Evers, possibly the most tightly wound man ever to play in the majors. Evers once protested a call at the plate he didn't like by holding a handkerchief over his nose. Which did the trick.
JB21 - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#292509) #
Thanks Magpie. Baseball is the best.
Gerry - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#292513) #
Jeff Blair's latest is up at sportsnet.

He says that Casey Janssen and the Jays are tired of each other. That Casey wants to go back to California. The Jays like Loup where he is used now. The Jays don't think Cecil or McGowan can close. The Jays therefore need a closer for 2015. He discusses and rules out Aaron Sanchez for that job.

He also says Sergio Santos' 2015 option won't be picked up.
John Northey - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#292515) #
The Janssen stuff is interesting.  Wonder if anyone would give the Jays something for him (say the Angels or A's)?  Doubt it at this point as the Angels pen looks pretty solid as does the A's unless Doolittle is out for too long but even then Janssen wouldn't be must help.  Detroit might be a potential panic case where they might give up something they really shouldn't (hey, never hurts to check). 

McGowan and Cecil both have the stats to say they can handle it, especially Cecil - I checked into him recently and if you just factor in holds that finished an inning and count losses as blown saves (even if he got a hold for it) he has been about as effective as Janssen.  Still, ideally you'd get something better just not sure what that would be.
James W - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#292517) #
I've prefer someone with a WHIP better than 1.440, but in a lost season it doesn't really matter who closes anyway.
uglyone - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#292519) #
Worrying about having a "closer" seems to me to be a waste of time. I mean, where did we find janssen in the first place? And how much time and money did we waste on the likes of francisco, cordero, rauch, dotel, gregg, frasor, ryan, etc. before we finally just realized that janssen was better than all of them?

Just put together as many cheap, talented arms with options that you can find, and have the toronto-buffalo express shutle in good working order. The bullpen will sort itself out.

I mean, the biggest issue with our bullpen this year is the guys we felt we owed a roster spot to - Santos, Delabar, Rogers. The rest of the pen has been pretty good.


11 guys have thrown over 10ip in our bullpen this year.

Here's their ERAs:

Sanchez 1.50era (18.0)
Jenkins 2.56 (31.2)
Mcgowan 2.78 (35.2)
Loup 2.91 (58.2)
Redmond 2.91 (67.1)
Rasmussen 3.18 (11.1)
Janssen 3.28 (35.2)
Cecil 3.46 (41.2)
----------
Delabar 4.91 (25.2)
Rogers 6.97 (20.2)
Santos 7.84 (20.2)

And if we average out all four of ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA:

Sanchez 2.23
Cecil 2.92
Jenkins 3.35
Loup 3.62
Redmond 3.67
Mcgowan 3.74
Rasmussen 3.93
Janssen 3.95
-----------------
Rogers 4.94
Santos 5.25
Delabar 5.29

uglyone - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#292520) #
Actually, looking at those numbers, you could argue that janssen has onky been our 8th best reliever already....though admittedly, it would be a weak argument giving rasmussen and sanchez credit despite small sample sizes, and ignoring leverage.....but even then, it's not impossible to argue thwt both those kids may have outpitched janssen anyways.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#292521) #
Jeff Blair rarely takes a flyer of stuff like this, he's got to be talking with someone really close to the decisions.

I can understand the Janssen issue. His problems with starting the season healthy, caused probelms. Six weeks out to start in 2014 cost the Jays how many losses? I can see how the Jays decided the risk outweighs the gains. I can also see Janssen wanting warmer weather with a team more likely to win. He's a Closer, and he's only 32; that has value.

Isn't Loup the first one off the Bench, the so-called "fireman"? He's effective here, often enough. Why mess with a good thing?

Aaron Sanchez will be a Starter until he shows he can't do the job. He has much more value to the Jays as a Starter than he will ever have as a Reliever.

Even though Brett Cecil's and Dustin McGowan's stats says they're good enough to Close, I don't think they have the right temperament. Sometimes you need to be bat-dung crazy to be a Closer.

Sergio Santos is not worth the money. As he cleared waivers to be sent down, he has even less value. As he plays only 1/3 of the games, could we pay him one third the value?
China fan - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#292522) #
"....you could argue that janssen has only been our 8th best reliever already...."

The problem is that Janssen's season has been divided into two absolutely contradictory halves: a brilliant first half and a terrible second half.  It's a little misleading to lump those two halves together and draw conclusions from the combination of those two halves.

Up until July 13, his ERA was a minuscule 1.13 and he looked like a lockdown closer, a completely reliable guy who could be counted upon to shut down the 9th inning in almost any situation.  He certainly wasn't the 8th best reliever in the first half -- he was pretty clearly the best reliever on the team.  But in the games since July 13, his ERA has been an awful 6.59.  So which of those two halves is the real Casey?  If we knew, it would be a lot easier to debate whether he should return next year.

Then there's the other possible issue: his free-agent status, and his criticism of Anthopoulos for failing to make a big acquisition at the trade deadline.  I'm not suggesting any correlation between his criticism of the GM and his performance on the field. I am wondering, however, whether his comments reflected some behind-the-scenes issues.  Perhaps he hoped for negotiations with Anthopoulos on a contract extension, and those negotiations weren't forthcoming.  Perhaps Janssen is increasingly certain that he'll be leaving the team after 2014, as Blair's article suggests.  Perhaps it's a mutual decision by now, which could be a blow to his morale.

Of course Janssen has no reason to pitch poorly in the second half of the season -- it reduces his chances for a big free-agent contract, and could cost him a lot of money.  Some kind of nagging injury, as some have speculated, might be a more likely explanation.  Still, it's difficult to generalize about his bifurcated season and make conclusions from it.  GIven how consistent he was as a reliever from 2011 to 2013, and given all the factors (psychological and physical) that might be weighing upon him in the second half of this season, I'd hesitate to be influenced too much by his numbers in the second half of 2014.

The biggest number of all, however, is the dollar amount that he can likely obtain on the free-agent market -- and whether that will be too rich for AA's blood.  It seems that the answer is probably yes.
Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#292523) #
Evers once protested a call at the plate he didn't like by holding a handkerchief over his nose. Which did the trick.

I hadn't heard that story before.  Did he have a handkerchief in his pocket while at the plate?  You never do know when you might have to blow your nose or wipe away a tear!
Magpie - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#292524) #
Fun with umpires. I believe this is a Gene Mauch story. An umpire blew a call at the plate, and Mauch and his players rush over to complain. Mauch, wanting to keep his players in the game, yells "The first guy to say a word to this poor blind old man gets fined $500."
jerjapan - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#292525) #
love these anecdotes Magpie!

Sad about Jansenn.  he's been one of my fave Jays for years - works quickly, pounds the zone, old school mentality. 

Mike Green - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#292526) #
Gibbons definitely has to work on his foot speed.  Might have helped a couple of times over the weekend. 
uglyone - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#292528) #
"The problem is that Janssen's season has been divided into two absolutely contradictory halves: a brilliant first half and a terrible second half. It's a little misleading to lump those two halves together and draw conclusions from the combination of those two halves."

How do you know its more misleading to look at the whole season than it is to look at one arbitrary split? Did you do a split analysis for the other guys and determine that they didn't have cold and hot streaks to?


It may be true that this last bit is just an aberrant cold streak, but we can't know that yet. And his big drop in Ks and velo all year long is a concern no matter what streaks he has.

And since we should never ignore cold streaks no matter what, i'm perfectly comfortable saying that its arguable that he has been our 7th or 8th best reliever this season.
hypobole - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#292529) #
Janssen and other closers have to be looked at in bit of a different light than most other relievers. All managers manage to platoon splits with most of their relievers in tight ballgames. Rather simplistic example, but 3 lefty hitters coming up, bring in Cecil, 3 righties, bring in McGowan. But closers face whomever. Opposing managers pinch hit, the closer stays in and isn't replaced, as a lot of guys with maybe better numbers are.

China fan - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#292530) #
"....How do you know its more misleading to look at the whole season than it is to look at one arbitrary split?...."

Might be less misleading to look at the past four seasons, rather than 2014 in isolation.  If you're calling him the 7th or 8th best reliever on the team, you're ignoring the much bigger sample of the past four seasons -- a sample which suggests that the last few weeks are an aberration (unless he is injured or unless there is some physical reason for his recent troubles). 

But I agree with you when you say it is "arguable".... 
Paul D - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#292531) #
In terms of Janssen and trades, I want to be clear that I know that neither the Yankees or Tigers make either of these trades.  Dreaming can be fun though.

The Tigers trade Iglesias to the Jays for Janssen and a B prospect (I think special permission is required due to Iglesias being injured).

The Jays trade Reyes to the Yankees for Betances. 

Then they've got a SS and a closer and a bunch more money.   

smcs - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#292532) #
Evers once protested a call at the plate he didn't like by holding a handkerchief over his nose. Which did the trick.

Bill Dahlen was ejected from a game in 1907 for having flowers delivered to an umpire.
John Northey - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#292533) #
Dreaming is fun.  A more likely one is the Jays sending Romero (salary relief) and a prospect for Jonathan Papelbon as the Phillies really don't need a closer and he makes $13 mil next year and another $13 mil in 2016 if he finishes 55 games next year.  He is still effective but few teams want to pay that much.  Romero gets $7.5 mil next year so the effective cost is $5.5 mil which is well worth it, or $18.5 over 2 years which is more acceptable ($9.25 per year) and then the Jays could give the Phillies something useful in exchange.
Richard S.S. - Monday, August 25 2014 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#292534) #
If Janssen is healthy enough to start the season as Closer, does Jeremy Jeffress make this team, Game One?

If Janssen is healthy enough to start the season in Week Three, do we still experience the Bullpen collapse - 17 April - 11 May - 8 Bullpen losses over 23 games, 70.33 IP, 57 runs?

It's highly possible, if Janssen's healthy at either of these points, Jays stay in First Place either from April 15th on or April 19th on.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 26 2014 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#292561) #
Injuries always play a big part. Janssen, EE, Lind, Rasmus & Lawrie. Of course other teams also have injuries.
We got very little out of Drabek & Morrow. Too long a rope for Rogers & Jeffress and not enough for Jenkins IMO.

What happened to all these players was not really a shock or surprise to me. Except for EE & Jenkins everything about the other players in this post is fairly predictable.
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