Oakland was the highest rated team in MLB according to BBRef's SRS (which adjusts for schedule).  They won only 88 games because they underperformed their Pythagorean by a whopping 11 games.  Even in September when they went 10-16, they outscored the opposition 91-85.  Over the season, they were 21-28 in one run games and 30-13 in blowouts. 

All that said, it's one game and it will probably be low-scoring.  And it's in KC.  Oakland is a better team and Beane is trying some new crap for the playoffs, but we won't...

I'm cheering on Oakland here, and probably to win it all.  The A's have won just one series in the playoffs since 1990 - 2006 they swept the Twins in the ALDS before the Tigers swept the A's in the ALCS.  Although the anti-Beane crowd would probably harp on him 'changing tactics' and 'moving away from moneyball' in order to win or some such.

I guess I am rooting for the Orioles.  It seems strange to choose the divisional rival, but I've got a lot of admiration for the work done by the Showalter/Duquette team. 

I have no idea how Oakland scored all those runs in the first half and I am personally asking MLB to review this because it seems impossible. Maybe in a few of those lightly attended games in Oakland they just added a run or two every inning or so when people went to get a beer? They may have underperformed their pythag but I think the team we saw in the 2nd half is the real Oakland As.

They underperformed their Pythag a lot in September too, ec.  Given that they won 94 and 96 games the past two years, there's a pretty good argument that they were just unlucky this year. 

Go Giants! Let's extend that steak of winning the World Series in even numbered years to 3. Gotta love having Bumgarner for a 1-game playoff. They're going to miss Pagan, though.

there's a pretty good argument that they were just unlucky this year. 

I get what you're saying Mike but his was a team that was 8th in AL in OPS but 3rd in runs scored.  I actually think the offense got pretty lucky overall. And then when you just look at who is hitting for this team you're like "how in tarnation did THIS team score more runs than the Blue Jays?"  I really don't get it.

Yeah, it's a bit of everything that accounts for Oakland's runs scored total.  OPS undersells them a bit because they lean toward the OBP.  they reached on errors 62 times, which is an above-average total.  They were 83-20 stealing bases, which is excellent.  The key factor though is that they hit .228/.300/.354 with no one on base, and .266/.314/.416 with runners on base.  Maybe their efficiency stealing bases helped a bit with that, but still a good portion of that has got to be luck.

Yah, Oakland's lineup looks like Donaldson, Moss and the rest are just a bunch of guys. I don't get it either. KC only outscored the bottom scoring team in the league by 39 runs, but their lineup doesn't look significantly worse than Oakland's. They seem to have a few decent guys in Gordon, Butler, Hosmer, Willingham, Perez and Aoki. Over/under on runs for tonight's game has to be a pretty low number, with Shields and Lester going.

No idea who I'm cheering for - I have to watch them play and then Preference just happens - but I suspect it'll be the Royals. I sort of like Jon Lester, but he just stinks of Red Sox....

At what point do we call the Shields trade a win for the Royals (full disclosure I did at the time)?

I would argue that ending a 29 year playoff drought is sufficient. A win tonight and I suspect he'll be entering David cone territory if he wins tonight. And I've seen little evidence that Myers is Jeff Kent.

I'm cheering for the Tigers because their owner and GM deserve a reward for all their deadline magic over the years.

Moss has chosen a good time to shake his brutal second half slump.

I probably wouldn't bring in Ventura in the middle of the inning; either at the outset or not at all.

Occasionally, I get things right...

Ventura pitched Sunday, threw 73 pitches and was hit around, 8 hits in 4 innings. Kansas City's bullpen was supposed to be a strength. Strange decision.

Incredible night for Moss. And I don't mean from a botanical perspective.

This is a fantastic game. And hopefully AA and Gibby will take note of what Jarrod Dyson just did. He literally stole a victory (at least temporarily) away from the A's. That's the value of a specialist on a team. Gose can be that guy.

Also, Gibby try not to take note of the Ventura move...

Dyson is a far superior base stealer than Gose. Combined minors and majors, Dyson has 301 steals with only 55 caught stealing, a success rate of 84.6%. That's why you can take the chance trying to steal 3B there. Gose has stolen 305 bases and been caught 112 times, a percentage of only 73.1%. Also, Dyson, although not a good hitter, has been better than Gose so far, with a BA of .256 compared to .234 for Gose and an OPS of .657 vs Gose's .633.

How in the name of George Brett has KC made the playoffs with Yost at the helm? The man is giving away outs like candy at Halloween.

"And I've seen little evidence that Myers is Jeff Kent."

You're right, Myers is not Kent. It took Kent until the age of 30 to post a better wRC+ than the 131 Myers put up in his age 22 season. Personally I will wait to see if KC gets more than one psuedo-playoff game in two years and see what Myers and Odorizzi turn into before I start declaring winners and losers.

To be fair re Yost, Hodgie, if there's a time for one-run strategies it's facing elimination at home and being down one.

Not that I like bunting runners from first to second. Second to third can make sense in the highest-leverage situations.

Wow, baseball!!

Cherry picking stats to attack an opinion about the future. Time will tell but if you are bringing up your stats then I will point out that Jeff Kent also never posted a wRc+ even close to the abysmal 79 that myers just put up (kent's lowest was 98 in his final season).

But my point was more about how much we value the postseason. Personally I'd trade a future HOF for the playoffs at this point and royals fans had to wait 8 years longer than I have.

That was Jason Frasor's first ever postseason appearance, by the way. I'm sure that's one he'll be remembering for a long, long time.

Wicked ballgame.

How in the name of George Brett has KC made the playoffs with Yost at the helm?

Ah, I can see you don't remember the 2001 Diamondbacks.

Great Twitter exchange as the always unbearable Steve Simmons observed that KC made no moves at the deadline, the A's made two big trades, and does JoeyBats know about this? To which Bautista tweets back "Who are you and why are you talking to me?"

There is maybe one player in all of baseball who is faster than Dyson. That doesn't mean that Gose couldn't help us in similar situations.

"Personally I'd trade a future HOF for the playoffs at this point"

Obviously a big "if", but if Addison Russell goes on to have a HOF career, would the trade have been worth it for the A's? I dunno. The A's do have Samardzija for another year and the Cubs don't have Russell's career, they have the first 6 years. On the other hand the first few years of Russell will be cheap and Samardzija next year expensive, crucial factors for building a team on a budget. Beane may regret the move down the road, if he's still with the A's years from now (which is a whole other story).

A Kent-like deal would be much easier to justify. The Jays didn't have a one-and-done playoff, Cone helped bring a WS championship to Toronto. Also with Kent, his 1st 6 major league seasons (present day team control years) were solid but unspectacular, OPS+ between 101 and 111 each season. It wasn't till his 7th season that he exploded offensively.

Exciting game - Happy for KC - Tampa will still make that trade every day of the week & twice on Sunday.

So, the great genius gave up a bunch of quality prospects including one of the best in all of baseball, a middle of the order power RH bat & draft pick to end up with egg on his face - wonderful, I always get a little schadenfreude feeling when winners are declared in advance and then reality strikes - e.g. Oakland @ the trade deadline/Jays before 2013/Red Sox before 2011 etc.

I'm rooting for the Orioles in the playoffs - what a terrific, underrated job by Dan Duquette - remember all the snickering when he was hired, Tony LaCava having turned it down.Danquette has made the playoffs 2 more times than the genius "Ninja" AA, while in the same division,working for a more demanding owner and with a smaller payroll - he has made smart under the radar signings, gotten more WAR production from trading a reliever than the ninja has gotten for trading the best pitcher in baseball & the Orioles have not used injuries as an excuse like some teams we know. I haven't even mentioned the greatness of Buck Showalter, who puts to lie the idea that managers don't matter - he has had a virtuoso season.

You were happy that the Jays didn't win last year?

I wish that Oakland and KC hadn't been playing each other, as I really wanted both of them to win. At this point I'm not really rooting for anyone, just against the Angels, Giants and Cardinals. So it will probably be an Angels-Cardinals WS.

Oh, I remember all too well the Diamondbacks Magpie. I just try to pretend it didn't happen - like a bad dream.

It isn't cherry picking stats whiterasta80 to point out that making any comparison between Myers and Kent at this point in their careers to justify your position is questionable. While I do understand your point about the playoffs to a degree there are few parallels between the Cone and Shields trades.

"I haven't even mentioned the greatness of Buck Showalter, who puts to lie the idea that managers don't matter - he has had a virtuoso season.

I will see you your Buck Showalter and raise you Ned Yost.

Dickey & Hutchison provide a nice illustration of the difference between his uglyone's approach (coulda-shoulda-woulda) and Magpie's (what actually happened).  Dickey threw 30 more innings than Hutchison with a better ERA and RA. But according to the theoretical stats, FIP and WAR, Hutchison pitched better. Me, I don't think the theory is sufficiently advanced to hand out grades based on how things "should" have unfolded. What actually happened was that Dickey contributed more to the success of the 2014 Blue Jays than Hutchison.

I agree.  It is easy to see the tangible ways that Dickey contributed to the club's success more than Hutchison above and beyond the walk, K and HR rates (holding runners would be an important one).  It should be noted that RA/inning were very close- Dickey at .47/inning and Hutchison at .5/inning. Hutchison's runs-allowed rate was pretty much typical for a starter in the RC context.  Dickey did throw 30 more innings than Hutchison.  I'd have them at Dickey as a B and Hutchison as a C+, with Buehrle an A- and Stroman a B+ (purely based on innings pitched).  If I was putting an order to the value of Dickey/Hutchison/Jenkins, it would be in that order, rather than Jenkins/Dickey/Jenkins (as Magpie had it) or Jenkins-Hutchison/Dickey (as uglyone had it).  You can't take either ERA+ (for relievers) or WAR or FIP (for either) too seriously.

Ack. Wrong thread. 

I remember being mocked for praising the Orioles and Duquette a couple of years ago, and overall he has done a very good job. He also inherited a lot more than AA when he took the job. Jones, Hardy, Machado, Markakis, Weiters, Tillman, Britton, O'Day among others were in the Orioles organization prior to his hire. Showalter was already the manager.

He made a good draft pick with Gausman, but it was also 4th overall. Jays haven't picked that high since 1996. His most expensive FA signing has been Ubaldo, who just gave them 125 innings of 80 ERA+. The biggest reason Pearce is an Oriole was Davis getting injured just as AA claimed him off waivers.

hypobole- As an Athletics fan I wouldn't trade a HOFer for the playoffs, their playoff drought is comparatively brief and their division isn't an annual juggernaut.

However as a fan of a team that now holds the longest playoff drought in all of professional sports and which plays in a division with 2 teams that have significantly more resources and 4 teams (at the moment) with smarter front offices I would thoroughly approve of the exchange.

I've watched us trade Halladay, Alomar and Delgado in my lifetime. Those losses still haunt me alot more than Jeff Kent or better yet Michael Young do.

Incidentally, 2000 is still the closest (by games back) we have come to winning the division since 1993. It may not have worked, but it made sense to gamble that year.

There is maybe one player in all of baseball who is faster than Dyson.

There is one player who is faster than Dyson on Dyson's team. It was a joy to watch those two steal bases last night.

Great Twitter exchange as the always unbearable Steve Simmons observed that KC made no moves at the deadline, the A's made two big trades, and does JoeyBats know about this? To which Bautista tweets back "Who are you and why are you talking to me?"

Simmons obviously knows nothing of the pain of losing Kratz. Those 2 homers he hit on August 18 were undoubtedly the difference between the Royals hosting the wild-card game and the A's hosting it.  Would the Royals have stolen 8 bases on the slower o.co track, Steve?  I don't think so. 

Pedro Martinez also dispensed a wonderful gem: "What Ned Yost it's saying about bringing in Ventura, it's horrible. How
much gas do you want? Why don't you just go and get a gas station?"

I wanted to say something about Ned Yost, whom everyone of a vaguely sabermetric bent has spent much of the season mocking. I suppose most of us are disciples of Earl Weaver - we're not too impressed by speed, we don't think much of small ball, we believe in big innings. Certainly the most successful Toronto teams were very much in the Weaver mold: Bobby Cox and Cito Gaston were both classic Weaver-style big inning managers.

But Yost manages the Kansas City Royals. The Royals play in Kaufman Stadium. You can't play big inning baseball at Kaufman Stadium. You'll lose. No Royal has ever hit 40 home runs. The team record is 36, set almost thirty years ago by Bye-Bye Balboni. The last Royal to even hit 30 HRs was Jermaine Dye, way back in 2000. There have been just ten 30 HR seasons in the franchise's history, which goes back almost 50 years.

Yost's team is built around pitching, speed, and defense. And with such a roster and in such a ballpark, you can use the one-run strategies and win. It's what Walter Alston did with the Dodgers in the 1960s, and it's what Whitey Herzog did with the Cardinals in the 1980s. (Of course, if your roster is full of slow and elderly power hitters and you try to manage that way, it doesn't always end that happily, as some of Gene Mauch's unhappy experiences with the Angels at the end of his career remind us.)

There are other issues with Yost, of course, as there is with everybody. He appears to be very rigid in running his bullpen - he's got his three guys, they each have their inning, and he's not going to deviate from that. I don't much like that, but a great many modern managers do seem to have such policies (or other ones) in place. I always assumed it was to reduce the amount of actual Decision-Making required.

I would have less of an issue with Yost's small ball if he was actually competent at that strategy. He is just lucky that the Royals are fast enough to out-run his mistakes. The ninth inning was Yost in a nutshell, giving up an out to sacrifice Dyson to second base against Derek Norris of all people, only to turn around and have Dyson steal third.

the Royals are fast enough to out-run his mistakes.

Well, in that case maybe it's not a mistake after all. :-)

These guys just think differently. They think - I'm not going to ask him to steal both bases. He's just as good at stealing third as he is at stealing second. But he's much more likely to get picked off if he's still at first. So let's just get him into scoring position and take it from there. Weird stuff like that, that never crosses our minds.

I don't see how anyone could have an issue with Yost in general using the stolen base as a weapon and particularly last night.  The Royals were 153-36 stealing bases in 2014.  That works for me.  Opponents were 60-12 stealing bases off Derek Norris.  You want to take advantage of that.

I am not sure there is anyone disputing the Royals should have been running. It was all the sacrificing when you capable of running that made little sense. The Royals managed seven stolen bases AND four sacrifices.