I am quite sure the Jays are not finished making trades. Dioner Navarro has value to someone. I wonder how many teams could use him as their #1 or half & half like Witt & Martinez or just backup catcher. I do not see him being traded as a backup 1) We would not get much.2) AA probably would not do that to him.

I expect another OF because we do not have enough. Bautista & Saunders are locks for 500 ABs if healthy. I am sure that Pompey has to play everyday somewhere. Pillar? I do not know how keen the Jays are on him "having" to get 500 ABs somewhere in 2015? So I expect an additional OF to be added and I think he will be a just OK type, someone's extra.

For the pen, we need one RH reliever that is good, minimum. It could be Sanchez in which case I do not expect a significant addition. TB always seemed to get someone good from the last few remaining arms. K Farnsworth & F Rodney, I think. So why not us?

With all the moves by everyone, I do not know which team is really good. I will guess LAA for sure.

Just to carry over the payroll discussion from the other thread:  one key test is whether the Jays actually spend any money to bolster their bullpen, or whether they content themselves with waiver acquisitions and low-cost trade pickups.  It's conceivable that the Jays are willing to accept 2B and CF as weaknesses in their lineup (as long as they can get good defence and potential upside from Pompey, Pillar, Travis, Goins etc), but the bullpen is a long-admitted problem, and the Jays cannot ignore it or fake their way through it.  Anthopoulos has repeatedly identified the bullpen as the biggest single reason for the team's failure to make the playoffs last year.  (He certainly doesn't call it the only factor, but it's the main factor that he has publicly identified.)  Within a few weeks until spring training, he's only got four proven relievers:  Cecil, Loup, Estrada and Redmond.  The rest of his options are risky gambles, waiver pickups, unproven prospects, depth pieces, or once-good relievers who imploded last year.   (And the other option, Sanchez, is needed for the rotation.)  For those crucial high-leverage late innings, the Jays simply cannot rely on fringe pitchers like Jenkins, Drabek, Hendriks and Delabar.  And they can't assume that Norris is ready for high-leverage innings either -- especially when he should be a starter in Buffalo or Toronto this year.   And since Estrada and Redmond are best-suited as long men, the Jays simply can't go into 2015 with Cecil and Loup as their only proven pitchers for the 8th and 9th innings.  It's a recipe for disaster, and Anthopoulos knows it.  So he's got to spend money, or go into 2015 with a major crisis in his roster.

Some Bauxites are speculating that the payroll has already reached its limit, and AA has to make revenue-neutral deals.  If so, we'll easily see the evidence: he'll trade Navarro for a reliever, he'll trade more prospects from the Jays farm system, and he'll content himself with low-cost acquisitions -- like John Axford, who had a horrible BB/9 of 5.9 last season and really shouldn't be allowed anywhere near a high-leverage inning.

But that's such a negative scenario that I can't believe the Jays would do it.  They have to spend some money and acquire a couple relievers with a proven record of recent success in the majors.  This means, almost certainly, acquiring relievers either on the free-agent market or by trading for veteran relievers who are entering the final year of their contract.  In either scenario, that requires money. 

If the Jays remain on a revenue-neutral path for the final pieces in their bullpen, I'll agree with the critics who say that the owners have tied AA's hands again.  It would be very frustrating for the fans.

One further point:  Russell Martin keeps saying that he's planning to be ready to catch Dickey this season.  If that's true, the Jays should dump Thole and keep Navarro -- for obvious reasons of strengthening the bench, strengthening the DH and getting more production from the back-up catcher. That, in turn, would eliminate another option for acquiring a good reliever: the long-assumed trade of Navarro for a reliever.  And that, in turn, would mean that the Jays really must spend some money to acquire a couple of good relievers.  I don't see how it can be done on the cheap.  Sure, it's easy to say that the Jays have a long list of potential major-league relievers (Jenkins, Hendriks, Drabek, Delabar and all the waiver pickups) but quantity is no substitute for quality.  It's easy to say that any group of 8 fringe relievers should produce 1 or 2 good relievers, but that's still a big gamble, and it's not acceptable for a team that aims to reach the playoffs.

John Lott's story from last night about Russell Martin and Dickey:

Over the past two seasons, the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular catcher took the day off when R.A. Dickey pitched. Russell Martin expects that custom to change this year. Martin wants to catch everybody, including the Jays’ resident knuckleballer.
“I’m preparing that that’s going to be my job,” the Jays’ new catcher said Saturday. “Really, I don’t know why it shouldn’t. If I can catch the guy, I can be in the lineup."
Josh Thole is adept at catching the knuckler and has been Dickey’s personal catcher the past two seasons. He also batted .213 with a .289 on-base percentage during that period.
General manager Alex Anthopoulos has said he believes Martin, an accomplished receiver, can handle Dickey’s eccentric offerings. If so, then it is possible last year’s everyday catcher, Dioner Navarro, could stick around as the backup and catch one or two of the other starters, making Thole redundant.
Navarro was widely expected to be traded after the Jays signed Martin. But so far, Anthopoulos has not received what he considers a fair offer, so Navarro could prove useful as a backup and part-time DH.

Keeping Navarro at $5M when the team is apparently low on funds would be a bad move. He's a back-up catcher. I'm fine with Thole for one more year. At least Gibbons only uses him with Dickey pitching, and the rest of the rotation doesn't have to suffer the downgrade. With Navarro, I'm almost positive Gibbons will overplay him, and while some here probably don't mind Navarro playing over Smoak, in reality, the benefit of having Smoak play 1B and keeping DH open for Edwin permanently far outweighs any offensive advantage (if any) Navarro may bring.

I do get the sense that Navarro will stay (unfortunately), but I really hope he demands a trade or something that expedites his departure. Paying $5M for a back-up catcher when your team presumably can't even afford relievers anymore is not a good use of money.

It seems many had the price for Zobrist as higher than it was, and I'm disappointed we couldn't have pulled his deal off. 

comparing the big leaguers, Jaso is coming off the better season with a WARP of 1.7 vs. Escobar's 0.5, but they've been pretty comparable over the past 4 or 5 seasons, and are roughly the same age.  If you think Escobar rebounds, his 5 million salary next season and 7 million in 2016, with an optional 7 million salary / 1 million buyout in 2017 looks like solid value.  Jaso is a bargain at just over 2 million and is a free agent next year.  The As are kicking in 1.5 million as well, so much of this deal was salary relief for the Rays.

The prospect cost was not as high as many expected.  Daniel Robertson, a late 2012 first rounder, is the prize, the SS will be 21 in spring training next year and may or may not stick at short, but profiles as a strong hitter.  He ranks in the 2nd half of the top 100 MLB prospects.

OF Boog Powell is about to turn 22 and was a 20th round pick in 2012.  He had a 50 game suspension last season for amphetamines.  He shows great on base skills but may profile as a quality 4th OF. 

The Rays clearly wanted to save cash which may have put us out of the running, but a comparable package from AA might have been Norris, Smith Jr., Navarro and cash.  Melandough suggested Navarro with Davis and Lugo as the prospects in the other thread, which might be a bit light, but overall, this was a deal the Jays could afford.  I disagree with those saying the Rays wouldn't trade within the division since to my eye this is a last place Rays team, especially with key pitchers Matt Moore and Jake McGee coming off surgery and not expected back till midseason. 

Hard not to complain about Rogers and payroll with all this inactivity.  It's not like Jays fans (or Rogers customers) have been compensated with a quality product this millenium.  If we don't upgrade our positional depth and bullpen, given how close we are to being the legit favourite to win the division and the minimal financial costs required to upgrade those areas, I'll be seriously disappointed - despite AA's strong start to the offseason.  Not to mention that Zobrist takes care of all our positional depth issues by himself, at an affordable price. 

I would have liked to see the Jays acquire Zobrist, but they never seemed a great fit as a trading partner for the Rays. In addition to Jaso and Powell, the Rays are getting a good middle infield prospect who is perhaps a year from the majors. The Rays have good starting pitching and may not have wanted a SP prospect. In any event, the Jays likely would not have wanted to part with Norris, whom they will likely need in 2015 and who is cheap and controllable for six years and could be a key part of the rotation going forward.

As for the bullpen, relief pitching is so variable from year to year that I find it hard to assess what the Jays should or should not do. I would rather see the team acquire a good second baseman or starting pitcher (especially now that the better FA relievers have signed elsewhere). The 'pen will sort itself out and adding a Proven Closer like Axford is unlikely to move the needle.

RE: the Yoans, others and the IFA rules ... given that verbal agreements are in a misty nether world of their own (see Vlad Jr), could the Jays (or any team) sign a player for say $100,000 for 6 months at which time he becomes a free agent, then sign him long term for X amount of dollars on the other side of the signing period ?

How many teams, beside the Yankee$ at $16M, have blown by their 2014 $3.6M allotted budgets and will be ineligible for IFA signings in 2015 ?

"a comparable package from AA might have been Norris, Smith Jr., Navarro and cash" ... Wouldn't Beane jump at that offering, even minus the cash ?

Some trade ideas:

1) Navarro to the D-backs for Aaron Hill ?
2) Tolleson to the A's for Sam Fuld ? Both out of options. Both positions are surplus on their respective teams.

"I expect another OF because we do not have enough. Bautista & Saunders are locks for 500 ABs if healthy. I am sure that Pompey has to play everyday somewhere. Pillar? I do not know how keen the Jays are on him "having" to get 500 ABs somewhere in 2015? So I expect an additional OF to be added and I think he will be a just OK type, someone's extra."

Um a left handed Dirks with a projected $1.6M would have been nice right about now no? I am yet to understand letting him go. I would be a great fit. He is rated as above average defensively and could easily be a breakout hitter IF he stays healthy. Could the Jays decide to go out and bring him back?

"The Rays clearly wanted to save cash which may have put us out of the running, but a comparable package from AA might have been Norris, Smith Jr., Navarro and cash. Melondough suggested Navarro with Davis and Lugo as the prospects in the other thread, which might be a bit light, but overall, this was a deal the Jays could afford"

jerjapan, I respectfully disagree. In my eye's giving up Norris (mlb.com's #25 prospect) along with Navarro (let alone Smith Jr. as well) would have been way too much and therefore a much better deal for TB than what they got. I still think Navarro, DJ Davis, and Lugo would be comparable especially if we left TB with Escobar. TB wanted a MI and Lugo while not as highly sought after as Robertson (ranked #85 on mlb.com) still has talent that teams covet. I think Davis over Boggs covers the shortfall. Now that all teh facts have come in I would say if Jays threw in $2M as well it would be comparable.

"The 'pen will sort itself out and adding a Proven Closer like Axford is unlikely to move the needle."

Greenfrog not sure about you and the others but I have no interest in Axford unless we are talking $1M or minor league deal. His WHIP is horrible with a very high walk rate 3 years in a row. He no longer seems to have the stuff of a closer (if his last 3 years are any indication). I am fine if he is paid as an average 6th inning depth guy but I would rather roll the dice with someone we already have as an option or a different FA/trade target all together.

Martin might be able to catch Dickie but Navarro cannot. What happens if Martin is on the DL? Or worse, day-to-day for most of a week?

I don't know who was Thole's replacement last year. It's less an issue as Thole only played 57 games and averaged less than 3 plate appearances per game while Martin played 111 and averaged 4.14.

At any rate, defense is more important than production for a backup catcher and Thole is inexpensive. If you have money to spend, upgrade the pen or find a left-ended firstbaseman who can hit.

Martin might be able to catch Dickie but Navarro cannot. What happens if Martin is on the DL? Or worse, day-to-day for most of a week?

The same thing that would have happened last year if Thole got hurt - the Jays would either suck it up and have Navarro catch one Dickey start, or they'd bring up Mike Nickeas for a few games. I think Nickeas is still in the organization; if not, I'd expect the Jays to find some other knuckleball specialist. For that matter, they could send Thole to the minors, as he doesn't have much value elsewhere if he's not being packaged with Dickey.

No question a knuckleball specialist can always be found if needed.  Does Thole have any options left? Probably not.  My gut says the Jays stick with Martin/Thole in the usual roles but let Martin catch Dickey here and there just in case the Jays do make the playoffs as then he'd be catching everyone and you'd want him to get some work with Dickey before that.

For catchers with 150+ PA (Thole's exact PA) he ranked #42 out of 55 for wOBA.  For the 150-250 range (normal backups) you get him as #10 of 21, a bit ahead of JPA and far ahead of ex-Jays Jeff Mathis and Jose Molina (who was dead last of the original 55).  Only 5 of those 21 had wOBA over 290.

So really, if you dig into it Thole is who he is - a backup catcher.  He hits like one, has special skills (knucleball) that help his value but he really isn't bad or good, just an average backup.

No question a knuckleball specialist can always be found if needed.

Can Kottaras be one ? His batting performance has been better than Thole.
--------
So really, if you dig into it Thole is who he is - a backup catcher.  He hits like one, has special skills (knucleball) that help his value but he really isn't bad or good, just an average backup.

Could he be sent to Buffalo and his batting performance be expected to improve beyond that of a backup catcher ? Navarro's had been considered as one before his improvement with the Cubs. In other words, can Thole's batting value be increased ?

Thole has one option year left which allows for more flexibility.

And to an earlier comment, including Norris in a trade for Zobrist would be ludicrous imo.

When AA first took over, he stated something along the lines of he wants high upside arms on his team; something which is needed to get battle with AL East powers. He has done a very good job, IMO, getting rid of the arms that wouldn't match up. Under his tenure, he has unloaded: Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Tyler Gonzales (released), Zach Stewart, Marc Rzepczynski, Asher Wojciechowshi, Joe Musgrove, Trystan Magnuson, and Noah Syndergaard.

He choose to keep Aaron Sanchez over Syndergaard and Nicolino.

Going forward, I think AA and his scouts have identified the pitchers that they want to keep (ie the high upside arms) in order to contend for many many years. You won't see AA move Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, Castro, Osuna, or Hoffman. If any pitchers get moved, it'll likely be the 2nd tier of pitchers (Tirado, Labourt, De Jong, etc.). If TB would have accepted Tirado and Nay, then maybe they get Zobrist.

And about Syndergaard, yes he's an upside arm and he needed to give up quality to get a CY Young Award winner. I would have preferred to keep Noah but I do understand why they made the trade when they did. I'm definitely not saying that Syndergaard isn't a quality arm because he definitely has the potential to be.

According to Jon Morosi tweet (6:54 AM - 12 Jan 2015):
... DBacks inquired ... about Dioner Navarro ... talks have not advanced much beyond that ...

I can see A.A. being interested in Evan Marshall (24, RHP, Addison Reed (26, CL/RHP), Matt Reynolds (24, SS/2B - AAA)and Randall Delgado (25, Rel/ST/RHP). I personally think Reed might be acquirable.

Dioner Navarro is an asset who will bring back something useful. I just don't know what A.A. wants for him. A.A. should be thinking, "filling a hole".

As John Northey said, "So really, if you dig into it Thole is who he is - a backup catcher. He hits like one, has special skills (knuckleball) that help his value but he really isn't bad or good, just an average backup." I think that says enough, simple and to the point.

If Martin unfortunately misses time, Thole must catch Dickey because no one else can do it well enough. It's all well and fine to advocate keeping Navarro, but not at the expense of not filling all the holes. Navarro has proven he's a Starting Catcher once again, and he wants that Job.

Have they announced the Collmenter for Navarro "plus" trade yet??

No, ok back to work then...

Josh could be a typical 5th starter in the realm of Redmond and Estrada, maybe even Happ.  He has an appealing contract which makes the "plus" a nice little debate.  Hopefully Stew and Alex are engaging in that chat right now.

If that fails I am stumping for Vogelson at about $4-5M to be our 5th, so that Sanchez can either close or master a 3rd pitch in AAA.

Andrew Stoeten Postulated on Twitter that maybe...just maybe. The Blue Jays are the team that Shields has an offer from but does not want to sign with. This makes quite a bit of sense knowing most players xenophobic attitude. If this were true it would also explain this much reported and maligned payroll gap of what was assumed as to what is. They could be 'holding space' in the payroll in anticipation of a Shields decision. If Shields signs or another major move (hamels) could be made it may signal a floodgate of 'go for it' spending but if this major move is not accomplished the payroll would then have limits. I am certain of one thing, the signing of Shields or Sherzer anywhere will incite another flurry of moves that are currently logjamed, I just wonder if our BlueJays are part of the coming moves, it would certainly explain the current and sudden pause in transactions.

I can imagine a huge move with the Phillies filling in all our missing parts if this is true.

 

Damn I'm bored right now.

 

 

 

Collmenter is a high-risk acquisition.  When he was moved to the rotation last year, his K rate and his IFBB rate fell dramatically and his LD rate increased.  Somehow he posted a 3.46 ERA courtesy of a .267 BABIP.  He does not get many ground balls either but somehow avoided the HR effectively.  Steamer projects his FIP to be 4.62 and his ERA to be 4.38. 

Hendriks has a better Steamer projection and I tend to agree.  It wouldn't be bad to have Collmenter around as long as you see the skeletons in his statistic closet.

Anyone useful for Navarro is a plus.

Dave Stewart says Arizona is no longer interested in pursuing a catcher.

The Yankees acquired Chris Martin for cash considerations.  Would a box suite at Yankees Stadium for a night game when the Rockies have a day game at Citi Field qualify as "cash considerations"?  Or do they have to count out the $93,615 in greenbacks for the Rox? 

As a Giants fan, I can tell you, the Jays don't want Ryan Vogelsong - have a look at his road ERA the last 2 years - 6.40 and 5.10. The park in SF is a pitchers' paradise, so his overall numbers are highly skewed. Plus, Vogelsong will be 38 next year. Get him in the AL East, with the DH, pitching in Rogers Centre, and you'd have a disaster.

Too bad the D-Backs don't want a catcher, that seemed to be a good bet for a Navarro trade.

The D'Backs want a catcher, they think the prices are too high. So they say they don't want one to try and get the price to come down.

I would bet money that Arizona will trade for a catcher before the season starts.

Do the Jays still have the rights to Joey Hamilton? Maybe Dave Stewart still wants him.

Chicago White Sox need a Starting Catcher. Just wait until Dave Stewart finds out how bad that Catching is that he's settling for.

Mike G,

I do not profess Collmenter to be anything other than a #5/swingman type who is on a very attractive contract and on a team with a surplus of starting pitching (if that's possible) and a lack of major league catching.

Collmenter's career numbers are probably more useful than a mid-season shunt to the rotation.  As a starter for his career (granted in the lovely NL West) he has a tidy 1.14 WHIP and a K:BB of 3.25.  As mentioned he has been pretty good (not great) at keeping the HRs down, though I would agree that is home park and division (and even league) related.

He could put up decent #5 stats.  I don't ask for much other than for the GM and Manager to know that the role of the #5 starter is to take their lumps and eat some innings as the prospects develop and the bullpen nervously looks on.  140 IP with an ERA of 4.50 is fine by me.  For his career Collmenter has 367 IP and a 3.80 ERA (with a sub-.700 OPS against) over 63 starts.

I'd much rather give that a shot than L Hendricks.  Besides, having Hendricks as depth is probably what we need after the Donaldson trade.

Sure, Shaker.  I happen to think that both Hendriks and Redmond can give you that, but I don't think that Gibbons has sufficient confidence in Redmond to put him in that role.  Actually, it's probably also true for Hendriks. 

dan g,

I don't disagree with your comments.  At his age Vogelsong may be done and there's no doubt his park and division helped.  My dastardly plan is to actually have him and Sanchez simultaneously compete for BOTH the #5 and closer role.  I think Vogey may just be able to close!  Let one of them be closer and the other be the 5th starter.  He still throws hard.  This "plan" is based on an assumption that we will not pay up for a bona fide closer - which may or may not prove true.

Looking at his home/road splits...Is it normal for walk rates to spike on the road?  His K rates were similar but his walks spiked on the road which (after having looked at his 2012 splits) might be a small sample fluke, or as you suggest might be fear of pitching away from AT&T.  I'm not sure it's conclusive or obvious.

I'd take a flyer on him, while Norris and Sanchez hone their skills.  If the market feels as you do, he should come cheaper than my $4-5M forecast, too.

I thought the bullpen was fine until AA had to trade his 5th SP to get a starting OF, opening up 150 innings in the rotation that will likely require at least two of the potential bullpen arms to fill. After the Martin, Donaldson, and Saunders moves it seemed obvious there were still holes to fill, and that those moves were only the beginning to AA's offseason. I'm concerned that's not the case, but there is still enough time and talent on the open market that one can hope the Jays aren't done building the 2015 roster. I wouldn't consider adding a couple of cheap-ish relievers as much "building" either - I really thought there were more major moves on the horizon, the types of moves that none of us were expecting (just like the Donaldson trade).

shaker, I just had a look at Vogelsong's 2014 home/road numbers. On the road, he gave up 16 HR's compared to just 2 at home. 16 HR's in 84 innings is abominable. He gave up more walks because he was trying to nibble, because he knew he was getting blitzed away from the friendly confines of AT&T. His WHIP on the road was 1.52, and that's with no DH in the lineup. I think the chance he comes up with a season remotely like his 2011/2012 seasons is less than 5%. I think the chance that he could be an effective pitcher for the Jays is very close to zero. Maybe if a team like the Padres want him, he could put up a decent season with the benefit of a really good pitchers' park and no DH.

I'd be very surprised if the Jays offered $110M for Shields. I guess you can't say it's impossible since they did sign Martin when no one expected them to, but still seems like a long shot.

AA has been frustratingly quiet though. Maybe we'll see some movement happen after all the arbitration figures are sorted out.

A.A. trades away J.A. Happ, #5 Starter; Kendall Graveman, #8 Starter and Sean Nolin, #9 Starter. (Our #6 Starter) Aaron Sanchez needs to be the #5 Starter in the Rotation and (our #10 Starter) Marco Estrada, the new #7 Starter, needs to be in the Bullpen. Daniel Norris (former #7 Starter) becomes our #6 Starter as is proper, but the new #8 Starter is the issue. Just a bunch of names that aren't good enough. It's just possible we are one good Starter away from being good enough.

A.A. should remove Pompey, Sanchez and Travis from the Prospect List as they will likely start the on the Team. He should protect the remaining top three names on the Prospect List, thereby saving six, and make everyone else available for trades. This year is very important, next year and beyond, less so.

As many have said, the big question is what is available and what do the Jays need?
1B: need a slugger who can field. 10 players at FanGraphs listed as free agents - none had even 1.0 WAR last year while the highest projected is Gaby Sanchez at 1.1 (Kyle Blanks was listed, but he signed with Texas).  Gaby has a 103 OPS+ lifetime, a +2.5 UZR/150 at 1B.  Kelly Johnson also is listed at 1.1 but I doubt the Jays would resign him as he is up to 4 straight years of sub 100 OPS+ although technically he can play pretty much anywhere on the field which has some value.

2B: Asdrubal Cabrera is the top free agent listed but he signed with Tampa on the 10th (FanGraphs is behind a bit).  Rickie Weeks is next at 1.2 WAR (2014, p2015 the same) who had a great year in part time play (124 OPS+) but realistically won't do that again (105 lifetime, entering age 32 season).  He made $11 mil last year and probably is after more than he is worth right now, so might be worth waiting on and seeing if his price drops as spring approaches.  Rafael Furcal is projected at 1.5 WAR but that seems unrealistic after he missed all of 2013 and most of 2014 (just 9 games played) and is entering his age 37 season.  Another guy to look at and take a flier on but not to risk much cash on.

Not much in the free agent market is there?  Well, outside of the big 2 starters of course.  Scherzer and Shields are the only ones projected at 3.0+ WAR, with only Hiroki Kuroda in the 2's but Kuroda went back to Japan (they list Jed Lowrie  but he signed with the Astros).  So the remaining free agents only are projected to a sub 2 WAR level for 2015 thus the only real improvement available is trades (near impossible to guess) or sign & hope for the best.

I have a puzzler for today.  Suppose that you could offer 4 year contracts to Scherzer and Shields.  What multiple of Shields offer would you give to Scherzer (be it .75, 1.0, 1.5 or 2.0)?

The addition of Scherzer or Shields could really change the dynamic of the Jays roster.

But as much as I will criticize ownership until they really go all on on a season- I don't think that the Jays really need to go that route.

I actually like how AA is playing this offseason right now. He identified where the supply exceeded the demand and has left that until late in the offseason while addressing other needs.

Obviously we need to add a closer/reliever: but Soriano, Janssen, and Rodriguez are all still available. I think we will end up with one of them at a reasonable price. There's plenty of second tier options out there as well.

For 2B: I actually think we will find a solution in house. Izturis looked like he may have been ok at the start of last season and the Gose/Travis trade was a good one. Even if this doesn't work out there wasn't really an appealing option out there (maybe Lowrie).

For SP: I'm fine with the depth for the moment- and if we need to acquire a starter I think that we are better off doing so in season: prospect value tends to be higher and we will know exactly what the need may be (i.e. front end, back end, not at all).

In season may be the route to go, especially with the QO draft pick comp being negated for mid season trades - this will lower the price for the buying team if we trade for an impending FA. 

However, do you actually believe that if the Jays make no more significant adds this offseason that they will make an in-season trade of greater significance than Danny Valencia? 

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 1h 1 hour ago
Sources: #Orioles, #BlueJays have discussed compensation package that O’s would require for allowing GM Dan Duquette to become Jays CEO.

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 1h 1 hour ago
Sources add: #Orioles, #BlueJays not close to deal on Duquette, but talks indicate O’s open to his departure; CEO higher position than GM.

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 1h 1 hour ago
Duquette under contract with #Orioles through 2018. As I’ve previously reported, some O’s people want him to go. Uncomfortable situation.

Maybe that's why everything has been so slow lately.

That certainly would make sense.  That the O's are in a mess as their GM wants to leave but is under contract.  Having a GM who wants to leave is a massive distraction - think of the mess with the last manager here who wanted to go to Boston and multiple it.  Odds are it'll end up being a few minor players going back and forth to end the deal but hopefully the Jays can sneak out a reliever or something useful along with Duquette.

How about someone who can take Dan Duquette's GM job? A.A, has a few guys who could.

as much as I will criticize ownership until they really go all on on a season- I don't think that the Jays really need to go that route. I actually like how AA is playing this offseason right now. He identified where the supply exceeded the demand and has left that until late in the offseason while addressing other needs.

Would trading away unused player(s) on active roster return good value ? Say trading out-of-minor league-option Tolleson to a team with surplus CF ? Regarding 2B and CF, various teams have invited numbers of 2B and CF to spring training. Shall the Jays pick one or two up during spring training ?

No one has bitten on my question.  I was curious myself how comparable pitchers to Shields (over 800 IP and ERA+ in 115-125 range between age 29 and 32) and Scherzer (525-675 innings and ERA+ in 125-135 range with K rate over 7.5 between age 27 and 29) have fared.  Shields list is a long one with names like Steve Rogers, Dave Stieb, Mark Langston, Roy Oswalt, Bruce Hurst, Jimmy Key, Mike Garcia, Bartolo Colon and John Tudor.  Most were disappointing after age 32. The three exceptions were Gaylord Perry, Early Wynn and Chuck Finley.  Scherzer's is a shorter one with Josh Beckett, Bartoo Colon, Sonny Siebert, Kevin Appier, Bob Veale, Jose Rijo and John Smoltz.  Veale, Colon, Siebert and Smoltz did OK; Appier, Beckett, and Rijo fell off a cliff. 

Current 2013 Shields and Scherzer comps would be Sabathia/C.J. Wilson and Anibal Sanchez/Hamels respectively.  The Scherzer comps did quite a bit better in 2014.  So, perhaps unsurprisingly, age seems to matter more than a record of durability.  Still the failure rate for both was a little higher than I would have expected.  My best guess is that the expected WAR for Scherzer over 4 years would be a little less than 3 WAR per year, while Shields would be a little less than 2 WAR per year.  It's probable that Scherzer would get some kind of premium for the additional value of a 6 WAR season that he is much more likely to achieve.  On the other hand, I imagine that subjectively Shields would be considered much more likely to be durable than Scherzer because of build considerations.  Let's call that a wash, and say Scherzer ought to get 1.5 times what Shields gets. 

K.C. will be paying $9.3 MM in final arby for Greg Holland. Kelvin Herrera will earn $1.5 MM in arby and he's a much, much better pitcher. Wade Davis makes $7.0 MM.

Washington will pay their closer Drew Storen $5.8 MM in arby and pat 2016 Free Agent Tyler Clippard $9.3 MM in Arby.

That's a lot of money for just Relievers. However both Holland and Clippard are extremely expensive to acquire, which is just greed.

Mike G.
Would you give Scherzer $100.0 MM over 3 years to play for the Jays?

Mike G,

You said "offer" rather than what would it take to get him...

I don't think Shields next 4 years will look like his last 4.  Still I would offer 4 x $17-18M to land him (and hope to offload his last 2 years).

Scherzer is the better bet but will cost more.  I would offer 4 x $24-25.  I don't think that would be accepted.

That's a factor of ~1.4.

I don't really think the Jays should go for either.  I am hopeful that one of Stroman, Norris or Sanchez evolves into an ace for 2016 or 2017.

Mike G.
Would you give Scherzer $100.0 MM over 3 years to play for the Jays?

Even assuming no budget constraints, the answer is no.  I figure that he's good for 9-10 WAR over 3 years and the $ don't work.  Shaker's figures look to be about right in terms of average annual value.

 Wednesday, January 14 2015 @ 04:52 PM EST (#) # John Lott’s piece in the National Post today makes me doubt that I’ll ever see grass in Rogers Centre.   At least not as long as Rogers are the owners.  Here’s a link:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/13/toronto-blue-jays-want-grass-in-the-rogers-centre-an-inside-look-at-the-difficult-growth-process-it-requires/

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/blue-jays-claim-matt-west-designate-cory-burns.html

Another waiver claim; minor upgrade.

FanGraphs is comparing Stroman's newfound cutter from last season to that of a former MLB starter with whom some Jays fans might be familiar...

Thanks for sharing that Dewey. I have been skeptical of Rogers Centre getting grass from the start - it just doesn't make any sense from Rogers' perspective to take on the expenditure unless you are looking at it from a baseball perspective, and not a corporate/financial one.

The Scherzer to Shields factor is probably around 1.5, with Shields at 4 years, 75-80 million. And if I were a GM with the Jays current roster and had the $ available to sign Scherzer or Shields+, I would lean towards Shields+. Those 200 innings would help really bolster this pitching staff from top to bottom, and you'd have enough cash to add at least one more impact player.

When A.A. says he's going to turn to the Trade Market to find what he needs is usually another way of saying he's given up. Why do I say that? Possibly because that's usually what happens. I don't think I've ever seen A.A. pick up anyone of significance this late in the season and that's what we need: Significant Acquisitions.

Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez, Dalton Pompey and Possibly Devon Travis are basically MLB-Ready or already there like Drew Hutchison and Marcus Stroman. That's what most GM's want because they are lazy and not interested in searching for alternative value. Most are more interested in who won the deal than trading value for value.

A.A. has already traded C Santiago Nessy (no longer had a place in the minors), 1B Adam Lind (Milwaukee only team to offer anything in return), CF Anthony Gose (for a blocked player in a bad minor league system), 3B Brett Lawrie (had very good trade value), LHP Sean Nolin (had very good trade value), RHP Kendall Graveman (had very good trade value), SS Franklin Barreto (had very good trade value) and LHP J.A. Happ (was an asset!). I just don't think he has enough left to trade or is willing enough to trade what he has left. Other than Dioner Navarro, who has enough value to be traded that A.A. will trade?

For Rogers when it comes to grass and cost analysis you have a variety of things to factor in.  Does turf cause more injuries (as many assume), and does it prevent free agents from signing or add a premium to getting them?  If the premium for a free agent to come here is an extra $1 mil a year due to the turf then Rogers can say 'OK, we'll pay up to $1 mil to switch to grass'.  If injuries cost, say, an extra DL trip a year per outfielder then that means you can quantify that as well and add that to the cost/benefit of switching.  I strongly suspect insurance companies do factor it in when offering player insurance to the Jays thus, again, another avenue to guesstimate the value of switching.  Add it all together and I suspect the cost of turf vs grass could be around $5 mil a year in extra player costs/lost wins (due to injuries, extra signing costs, etc.).  Mix in the cost of turf itself (needs replacing every so often as well) when factoring it all in.  Also would have to factor in lost revenue from non-Blue Jay related stuff like in-season monster trucks/conventions/football/etc.  Losing the Bills helps make it a bit easier to justify, and the Argos were never much in the revenue department I suspect.  So if the cost is in the $5 mil range I figure it is well worth the switchover, but if it is $10-20 mil a year then probably not.  I have no idea (the article didn't guess at it) what the cost is beyond 'high' whatever that means.  I suspect after a couple of years the cost would go down once they figure out the issues it creates.

Let's look at a few things needed to keep grass in the dome. Replacing the Roof is going to be an issue, especially when you need something transparent (transparent aluminum has not been invented yet). Otherwise the growing lights will be extremely expensive and labor intensive. Watering the grass will be an issue as a built-in sprinkler system could be injury-causing. It will also cause enough humidity to generate mold and cause rain indoors, so a massive dehumidifying system is needed. The actual grass will not be cheap and that part of the process only adds to the expense.

I don't expect year-to-year costs as being too expensive, just very. The initial expense will be in the $200.0 MM - $300.0 MM range, but is not without advantages. 1) New Roof will bring in natural light, especially in bad weather. 2) New Floor will have drainage and a natural dirt floor that turf could still go on. You could still hold a lot of events using a different floor over the dirt. 3) Dehumidifier will keep Dome very climate controlled, no matter what event is held. It's worth doing, I just don't know if they can justify the cost.

Here's a conspiracy theory for you: Beeston is being ousted for his promise to get grass into the Rogers centre by 2018. A new CEO won't have to live up to this promise.

We, dedicated baseball fans of Toronto, deserve to watch baseball played on natural grass and dirt after 37 years of artificial turf. We are a major market team but somehow are in the same predicament as the Rays.

Let's get a petition going to show Roger's that nat grass is non negotiable before the Roger's PR spinners frame the debate and justify not doing it..

John,
There's also lost revenue from fans that don't like watching baseball in a concrete bowl with plastic " grass". In the last couple of years I've seen the Jays play in 7 different ballparks. Not one of them was called Rogers Centre. And this year I'm watching them in Detroit in July and Minneapolis the end of May. I have no plans to go to Toronto though, even though it's only 1.5 hours away.
Putting in real grass would be a big first step towards getting the fans to actually go to the home games instead of just watching them on TV. I know I'd start going back to home games, at least to give it another try. Ideally though they decide against the grass in the dome and just build a real ballpark!

There is such a skewed sample on this (and other) Blue Jays message boards. The market that the Jays need to tap into to boost attendance is the causal baseball fan, not those of us who would make a point of seeing the Jays during an away game with grass. To reach the casual fan the Jays just need to win. That's it, end of story.

One of Beeston's first comments about turf in the dome was, if I recall correctly, "It doesn't suit the climate in Toronto." this is just a fact and wishing and even probably engineering or agricultural science won't change it. The cost is better spent on the field. This is to say nothing about how horrible a new ball park would be -- for the entire public. Toronto needs to sort out transit and Ontario has health and education to worry about. The new stadium effect on attendance is small and transient and merely adding grass would have no effect for the casual fan.

A better idea than shelling out for turf or a new ballpark (and one I suspect is happening) would be to take advantage of the Jays almost-unique situation. Only Tampa plays the same number of games on turf. Let the other teams player's be bothered by the turf and have to adjust to it. The Jays could acquire more durable players suited to turf (e.g., Donaldson the past couple of years). Focus their spending on position players and a DH where turf isn't a factor (they've done this Martin and are doing it with Buehrle and Dickey). Jays fans who gripe about the field should be over the moon if Beeston or his replacement said, "Grass will cost $X million. We're spending this on the guys on the field, not the field itself."

Painful to see Beane flip Escobar to Washington for Clippard.  Had we made the Zobrist / Escobar deal, we'd have solved our two biggest issues in one affordable deal.

Recent waiver-wire claimee Matt West is interesting - has hit 100 mph, a converted IF who became a pitcher in 2011.  Due to injuries, he has just over 100 innings of pro relief and his velocity took a dip with the injury.  He just turned 26 and is coming off a healthy season - definitely worth a flier.

ok, I have a plan for Jays to increase revenue and it has everything to do with thinking outside the box.

We're going to draw fans in by being so classically innovative it will leave everyone at a loss for words -- they won't be able to help not staring! and tuning in, coming to the park, etc.

Step 1: get Dickey to teach Russell Martin to throw a knuckleball. Yes, we're going to utilize Martin as a knuckleball reliever --he's still going to catch but now he'll be more versatile.

Step 2: teach left handed (and some right handed) relievers in Blue Jays' employ to catch Martin's knuckleball.

Step 3: in the course of games, Martin will exchange equipment on the mound with the pitcher. Why? disrupt the other team, create matchup advantages, being awesome theatre.

There are of course alternatives to this, such as the pitcher going to third base for a spell while Donaldson goes behind the plate to catch Martin's knuckler. In this age of specialized duties, it would be fascinating for a team to move more toward having players wear many hats. There has been some of this of course, but pitchers are generally only pitchers. I think the Jays could really capture a great deal of public imagination by breaking this mold.

Problems with this plan to get it off the ground? Martin being able to throw a good knuckler, Donaldson or any pitcher being able to catch it, the huge resistance to change within the industry from executives to agents to players to beer-drinking fans.

The Jays have got Andy Dirks back.  Signed him to a minor-league deal, according to Ken Rosenthal in a tweet just now.  Presumably cheaper than the salary he would have had earlier in the off-season.  Nice depth for the outfield.

Good to have Dirks back - they needed a 5th OF. Gives them the option of starting Pompey in AAA, and having Pillar and Dirks on the mlb roster.

Cecil signs for $2.475 million, avoiding arbitration.

Nice move by AA, saving a million plus in the process.  According to Stoeten, the opportunity for more playing time was enough to get Dirks to sign here over Detroit.  Hopefully the same lure works with the remaining relievers out there. 

B-R expected $2.6 for Cecil, so another 125k saved... yeah, not much but every dollar counts I guess.  Estrada and Donaldson are the likely biggest arb cases (over $4 mil each expected).  Doubt the Jays will shift the pay much here though...not enough to make a difference at least.

Dirks is nice to get...if he can produce anywhere near his 2012 line we have a woohoo (129 OPS+ in 88 games) but 2011 and 2013 were in the high 80's while 2014 was a write off.  Steamer sees him as a 257/319/394 hitter in 81 games, 0.7 WAR.  Useful but not 'wow'.  Still, warm bodies with some ML success are nice to have.

Love the Dirks signing. We need another OF. I expect to lose some out of options players.
Matt West should have some options left. Every once in a while some of these guys get good. Bautista, J Fraser & S Downs.

"According to Stoeten" ... he retweeted a tweet from Jason Beck...we don't need to attribute news to Stoeten...he posts lots of content which is great, but please stop citing him as a reporter or media source with information.

Sorry dalimon5, that was lazy attribution on my part.  Agreed, source things right!

There's also lost revenue from fans that don't like watching baseball in a concrete bowl with plastic "grass".

I wonder how much that is offset by rainouts? The Rogers Centre might be a stale concrete bowl with funny green stuff instead of grass, but each game is guaranteed to be played at the time stated. (Many years ago, friends of mine and I planned a trip to Detroit to watch the Jays play in Tiger Stadium. It rained the whole weekend - no games.)

One of Beeston's first comments about turf in the dome was, if I recall correctly, "It doesn't suit the climate in Toronto."

Beeston has a point here. In Toronto city parks, grass isn't reliable to walk on, let alone play sports on, until May. Exhibition Stadium was converted to turf before the Jays even existed - I'm sure there is footage of old Grey Cup games played before then, when the field had all turned to mud.

Jays avoid arbitration with Saunders and Estrada. They agree to $2.875MM with Saunders and $3.90MM with Estrada. What were the projections for those two? Just Valencia and Donaldson remain. I expect they will also get done before tonight's deadline.

And wow Detroit and Price agree to whopping $19.75MM (projected at 18.9MM).

How's our 40-man looking?

Yanks just designated Eury Perez.  Pretty useful pickup given the speed and good contact rates in the minors.  Still young.

Would love to give Pompey a little seasoning in AA and AAA to avoid a potential Sniderepeat.

Saunders' projection was $2.9M and Estrada's was $4.7M, so the Jays did well according to the MLB Trade Rumors site. Their estimates have Valencia at $1.7M and Donaldson at $4.5M.

Nice move by the Giants to sign Aoki to a reasonable contract.

If Pompey needs a month or two in AAA, I have no problem with Pillar in CF and Dirks as the 4th OF.

Kawasaki is back! According to Davidi Jays signed him to minor league deal with an invite to spring training. I love the guy. Not sure he will crack the lineup but good to have as a depth guy. Seems terrific for club house.

I'm not so keen seeing the 210lb Pillar in CF everyday.  Once a week is fine, but all games for 2 months could wear...would rather see him platoon with Saunders and spell the CF.

Pompey, Dirks and Saunders all hit RHP well but are pretty weak vs LHP.  Not sure there's any downside to bring "lefty-masher"  Eury P into the mix, unless you see losing Scott Barnes as a big deal.

Besides Dirks is on a minors deal.  Seems to me you'd essentially be doing Eury + Travis for Gose...

A young asset, a good asset, a free asset.  What's not to like?

Corey Burns cleared waivers and will be sent to Buffalo as bullpen depth. Former Jay farmhand Tyler Pastornicky also cleared waivers and has been sent to AAA. Lawrie settled with the A's - no word on the amount yet.

As far as Pillar in CF is concerned, he's got decent range. He's a pretty high percentage base stealer, so he's got good speed, and in his limited mlb time in CF, his Range Factor per 9 innings is 2.73, compared to the league average of 2.69.

"Pompey, Dirks and Saunders all hit RHP well but are pretty weak vs LHP."

What leads you to conclude that Pompey is weak vs LHP?"

According to Jon Heyman on twitter, Donaldson submitted 5.75m, Jays submitted 4.3m.  As Donaldson's number is lower than the 6m I had him for, I guess we have to mark this one down as "Green- wrong again".  A school of cuttlefish to hypobole....

I really hope the Jays are negotiating a multi-year deal with Josh Donaldson, because otherwise they might be insulting him significantly before his first game in a Jays uniform.  Coming off an all-star season, when he was judged the 8th-most valuable player in the league, and when he posted a fWAR of 6.4, he asked for a salary of $5.75-milion.  The Jays offered him just $4.3-million, which is less than most analysts projected.  If the Jays have to defend their lowball number at an arbitration hearing, it's not going to be a pleasant atmosphere, and it won't be great for enthusing him about his new employers.

Mike, the MLBTR projection for Donaldson was $4.5-million.  That's less than your projection -- but more than the Jays are offering him.

It looks like it will take a 5-year deal to avoid an arbitration hearing with Donaldson, and a 5-year deal would be quite unusual for a player who is still under team control for 4 years, so it seems likely that the Jays will going to an unpleasant arbitration hearing with their star acquisition.  From a Shi Davidi article tonight:

Ending up in a hearing room is far from an ideal way to start their relationship, and the only way to avoid that is with a deal that covers Donaldson’s four remaining years of club control, plus at least one free agent year.   Also per policy, the Blue Jays won’t do a contract guaranteeing salary during a player’s arbitration years without getting control of some free-agent years in return.

When comparing signing Bautista and Encarnacion and signing Donaldson, there are more differences than similarities.

Signing Bautista after his one big year took a leap of faith from Anthopoulos, but he had limits on how high he would go. Jose's consistency has been amazing, enough to know any extension will be expensive.

Signing Encarnacion was easier because he had gotten better and A.A. wanted him long term. His actual improvement is more than was expected, and any extension will also be expensive.

Donaldson is different as he's an established top player over just more than two years. That consistency shows it's not worth worrying he'll turn into a pumpkin any time soon. Any arbitration settlement will escalate quickly. Starting with just $4.3 MM for this year, you could hardly not increase each subsequent year for much less. Just using $4.0 MM for 2015, you'd get $8.0 MM for 2016, $12.0 MM for 2017 and $16.0 MM for 2018. Any Free Agent years would come at $20.0 MM each. At $5.75 MM Donaldson wants, Free Agents years would be a prohibitive $28.75 MM a year. A.A. needs to hold down costs as soon as possible, but long-term deals are difficult.

If the Jays can sign Donaldson for 5 years at $60M, they may as well lock it in if they believe in him. Could set it $4,$8,$12,$16,$20 = $60. In the long run that should amount to savings assuming Donaldson is consistent. Or could run it as $5,$10,$15,$15,$15 for the five years.

On the other hand, maybe they don't want to put the risk of him blowing a knee or any other mishap. Or perhaps Donaldson would prefer the risk of a larger payday going year to year.

If I'm not mistaken, Insurance covers D.L. stints, not the Team.

Danny Valencia and his Agent could go for a two year deal around $3.0 MM. A.A. might go for that.

Dickey's comments during the winter caravan don't leave much doubt that he only wants Thole catching him.

I really hope the Jays seriously consider trading Dickey; his career path is too weird to accurately project his future contributions, and I just feel like he could fall off a cliff without warning. He's been getting clobbered the third and fourth times through the order so it seems like a bad idea to expect him to continue to eat 200 innings every year.

I don't know, maybe the general volatility of the knuckleballer and the fact that Dickey just rubs me the wrong way is clouding my judgment, but I don't think he's going to provide enough value going forward to justify his need for a personal catcher who probably couldn't make the team on his own merit.

Man, would it be sweet if the Jays got rid of Dickey and used the money towards a bigger asset like Scherzer. Probably not gonna happen, though. If Dickey can keep doing what he's doing for another year, maybe it'll be enough, but this team is going to have to win SOON if that's the case.

If I'm not mistaken, Insurance covers D.L. stints, not the Team.

Not necessarily. From the Baseball Prospectus archives:

Back at the beginning of the [last] decade, the entire duration of a deal could be insured and the teams could take out policies that covered 100 percent of the player’s salary. Nowadays, insurance policies are limited to two or three years, may cover only 50-80 percent of the player’s salary, have qualifying deductible waiting periods that last half of the season, and can include provisions that help the provider avoid having to cover the cost in certain circumstances. An example of one such provision would be to safeguard against a pre-existing injury.

If the Blue Jays signed Donaldson to the contract mentioned earlier and got an insurance policy on it, there is still a chance that the team would wind up eating a good chunk of the contract if Donaldson spent a significant amount of time on the DL.

Not sure arbitration meeting are so unpleasant. I'd expect it's mostly sheets of numbers.
I figure the players are happy when they win and unhappy when they lose, regardless of what is being said.

Jays' offer might be a bit low, but Donaldson's demand seems fairly high.

He switched representation from Bledshoe to Dan Lozano a year ago. He must have been really anxious for that first arbitration hearing.

The player gets to listen to front office personnel try to convince the arbitrator why the player isn't worth the money he's asking for. I could see why that wouldn't exactly be rapport-building experience.

Stoeten has a good piece on Jays bullpen and why we should not worry. Makes some good points. I was pretty excited when I looked closely at Estrada's splits when we got him. Also I like the chances of one of Tepera, Guilmet, or Infante blossoming this year into something special.

Add that and one more decent addition to Cecil, Loup, Redmond, and one of Sanchez (hopefully a starter) or Norris and maybe they will end up being not just being ok but better than average.

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/01/16/relax-the-bullpen-will-be-fine/

Not sure arbitration meeting are so unpleasant. I'd expect it's mostly sheets of numbers.

I think the rarity of cases that actually make it to arbitration is a sign of just how undesirable these sessions are. Even if a player wins, he has to hear unflattering arguments from management.

Just going from memory here, I seem to recall that in the early days of arbitration, there were many, many more cases that were not settled beforehand, as is the norm now. In fact, so numerous were arbitration cases that being a player advocate was a cottage industry. I think Bill James fulfilled this role on several occasions. Might even have argued on George Bell's behalf.

Isn't this when you sign long-term contracts? Four years remaining on the original and grabbing a year of Free Agency is usually discussed. Too many horror stories about going to see an Arbitrator are around to make it desirable, just something to be avoided at all costs.

Blue Jays/A.A. must be desperate, they are discussing acquiring James Shields. They went into this offseason needing 2 or 3 Bullpen arms and if all there is to show for it is Marco Estrada, there is a major problem.

Even if a player wins, he has to hear unflattering arguments from management.

We are talking about a guy who has played 0 games in a Jays uniform. There's nothing to talk about except stats and what similar players are making.

I see on Rotoworld that Ken Rosenthal is saying that as spring training approaches, Shields' asking price is coming down, and the Jays have renewed interest. Says Shields might be available at $70-80 million for 4 years. Since he has played in good pitching environments, I had a look at Shields' career home/road splits. Pretty significant - his career road numbers include an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.25. His home ERA is 3.46. His post season results have been terrible, with an ERA of 5.46 and a WHIP over 1.5 in 11 starts.

"the MLBTR projection for Donaldson was $4.5-million. That's less than your projection -- but more than the Jays are offering him."

But if the MLBTR is at all accurate, that means the Jays will win arbitration. Arbitration is winner takes all (assuming it happens), so if the arbitrator thinks Donaldson is worth more than 5.025 Donaldson will be paid 5.75 M, if the arbitrator thinks he's worth less than 5.025 then he'll be paid 4.3 M. Given the MLBTR estimate is 4.5 and given the Jays "own" the round number 5M, I think that makes it likely the Jays would win.

Of course I agree that I think you want to avoid it.

Yes, the Jays are likely to win the Donaldson arbitration case, but that carries its own risks.  If the Jays win, they've potentially got a star player who thinks he is underpaid by $1.5-million and potentially resents the Jays for squeezing him out of his rightful salary.

To be fair, Donaldson seems like a professional guy who wouldn't carry a grudge.  Probably he'd see it as "just business" and wouldn't resent it very much, if at all.  But it's not the ideal way to start his Jays career, and it could also send a penny-pinching message to other players too.

One hopes, therefore, that the Jays have a plan here.  Maybe they'll lock up Donaldson in a five-year deal.  Or maybe they'll break their normal policy and negotiate a one-year compromise deal with him, before the arbitration hearing begins.  Or maybe they've got other ways to mollify Donaldson's feelings.  One hopes it doesn't become a confrontational or conflictual situation.

I think the penny-pinching has already been established after Anthopoulos passed the hat around last year.

Interesting stat: although Shields's K rate declined last year (to 7.1 / 9 IP, down from a career high of 8.8 / 9 IP two years ago and his career average 7.7 / 9 IP in 2014), his average FB velocity was 92.4 MPH - the highest of his career by a slight margin and almost identical to his FB velocity in 2013 (92.2) and 2014 (92.3).

So he's still throwing hard, despite all the innings he's piled up (1910.1 over his nine years in the majors). And his control was excellent last year (1.7 / 9 IP).

Make of it what you will. Who knows when he'll start to decline? He could be an effective pitcher for the next three or four years, or he could get hit hard in 2015 or 2016. Given his age (33), a four- or five-year deal seems risky. On the other hand, can the Jays afford to hope that the status quo is good enough to make (and advance in) the playoffs?

"....I think the penny-pinching has already been established after Anthopoulos passed the hat around last year...."


Established in the eyes of some people, but contradicted by the $82-million contract to Martin this year and the $42-million being paid to Reyes and Buehrle in 2015 alone. Reality is not quite as simple as some fans believe.

Worrying about a Starter's 2014 Postseason Record screams "small sample". I'd start Stroman, Hutchison and Dickey before Shields in any Post-Season.

Established in the eyes of some people, but contradicted by the $82-million contract to Martin this year and the $42-million being paid to Reyes and Buehrle in 2015 alone. Reality is not quite as simple as some fans believe.

True. I was talking about perception rather than reality, but you're right - the team is far from cheap. I was more referring to the perception that the team will spend big; they're ALMOST there and a couple million more would bring in a piece that fills a big hole, but all of a sudden the bank vault is closed. I know the team has to draw the line somewhere when it comes to payroll, but they seem like they're ready to go all in and try to win now, but they come up just short in spending what they need to get those final few pieces of the puzzle.

It possible that with the probable Scherzer signing with the Nationals, something might shake free as they try to save money. It's possible A.A. might acquire a Starter here.

So Scherzer gets 7 years and $180+ million. Nationals now seem likely to trade a starter. Fister and Zimmerman are free agents after 2015, and would presumably be the most likely to be traded, and Zimmerman would be terrific, but they apparently are looking for help at 2B, which would rule the Jays out unless they could make a 3-way trade.

According to Bob Nightingale of USA Today, Shields wants 5 years and $125 million, which is almost as much per year as Scherzer's deal. At age 33, with his career road ERA of 4.00 and career post season ERA of 5.46 in 11 starts over 4 post-seasons, it's no wonder he's getting offers substantially less than that. I think the reported offer range of about $80 million for 4 years seems more reasonable, although somebody will probably pay him a bit more than that, either in term or annual salary.

I like Scherzer more than Shields, but these numbers reflect an awfully rosy projection of what he is likely to do over the next 8 years.  Scherzer has a pretty good chance of giving the Nationals 2 very good years, a fair chance of giving them 3 very good years and beyond that, it's unlikely.  The likelihood that he blows out in a year and a half is surprisingly high. 

Look at Sabathia.  This was a contract that has more or less worked out for the Yankees.  He signed for 8 years after his age 27 season.  He gave the Yankees 4 very good years, and (so far) 2 lousy ones.  Scherzer is entering his age 30 season.  The blow-out rate gets higher and higher around this age. 

It brings up an interesting thought. As a GM, I would personally take it slow with developing pitchers, and stretching them out in the minors. Bring up a player at 24, as a Super II, and then you get to keep them for 6 1/2 years, until they are 31-32 and then you let them walk via FA. If pitchers do start to flame out at the age of 32ish, then it's an ideal strategy.

I don't think that there ought to be hard and fast rules.  You definitely don't want to bring up a pitcher before he's ready.  Take Tom Glavine.  The Braves brought him up at age 21 (he had pitched to a 3.36 ERA in the IL with humble W/K rates).  He got knocked around.  He was up for a regular spot in the rotation at ages 22-24 and was totally mediocre before putting it together.  Glavine's premature promotion occurred in 1987, a few years before Schuerholz arrived in Atlanta.  I am pretty sure that he wouldn't have done that. 

Lets check that Sabathia deal...one listed as a bad one.
Signed for 2012-2016 (option for 2017) for $122 million.  FanGraphs value provided so far = $35.2 thus, if he never is better than replacement going forward they lose $87 million on the deal.  Ouch.  But they do have 2 more years to go and I'd expect some value but still they will take a bath on that one.  He signed for ages 31-35.

Scherzer is signed for ages 30-36... if you stretch back CC's deal to age 30 you add in a $29.9 mil year which shifts the loss from $87 mil to $57 mil over 5 years with just one more to go for value to be added.  Again, an ouch no matter how you cut it.

For famous Jays who had their career end early...
Halladay ages 30-36: 33.7 bWAR, 5 years of 'wow' followed by 2 years of 'oh crap'
Stieb: 14.4 bWAR, 2 years were negative, remove those and it is 15 bWAR - 3 great years (2 ASG), 1 good but injured, 2 lousy, 1 no long playing.

So if you use $6 mil per WAR you get a value for those two of $202.2 mil (Halladay well worth it), and $90 mil (Stieb not).  Up it to $7 and Halladay is great value, Stieb $105 mil starts hitting a point where a team could go 'yeah, expensive but we needed him those first few years'.  Another big Jay pitcher who the Jays let go in that age range was Jimmy Key who produced 26.4 WAR in those years worth (at $6 mil per) $158.4 mil (one injured year, another shortened by the 94 strike).

Basically a deal like Scherzer's can only be justified if you put a ton of extra value on the first 2-3 years (ie: a team on the cusp of playoffs).  For the Jays he might have been worth that kind of risk.  For the Nationals it seems odd as they made the playoffs easily last year and their competition didn't seem to up their game this winter by enough to regain the ground.  However, there is the 2nd shoe to drop - rumours that Zimmermann will be traded (or another starter) to fill in other holes.  Depending what they get it could be viewed as a draft pick plus cash for whoever they get while also upgrading that rotation slot.

FYI: for other top Jay pitchers age 30-36 using $6 mil per WAR...
Roger Clemens: 41.2 WAR = $247.6 mil (best case) - covers both Jay years
Pat Hentgen: 7.3 WAR = $43.8 mil - his Cy year was age 28
Jim Clancy: 4.8 WAR = $28.8 mil (2 big negative years, just over 9 without those = $54 mil)
Juan Guzman: 4.8 WAR  = $28.8 mil (year after he won ERA title)
David Wells: 25.9 WAR = $155.4 mil (the years right after the Jays released him)
Kelvim Escobar: 8.4 WAR = $50.4 mil (2 years, then just 5 innings from age 32 to the end)
Doyle Alexander: 24.0 WAR = $144 mil - covers Jay years, Yankee, Giant, Atlanta and his big 9-0 record for the Tigers in '87 that cost them John Smoltz

An interesting batch eh?  Note how only 2 of the top guys to ever wear a Jays uniform would've reached the value Scherzer got, Clemens & Halladay - two HOF calibre pitchers.  The others providing enough value to go 'close enough' were Wells, Alexander, and Key.  One was released entering his age 30 season, another was released in the middle of this stretch (and traded for nearly nothing, then traded for a future HOF'er), while Key was viewed as 'too old' or something by the Jays in the early part of that stretch.

I'd say Guzman, Escobar, and Clancy are all good warnings about these deals.  All 3 signed, at the time, expensive deals and didn't provide great value early in their age 30-36 years.

As I said before - this is a good deal if the Nationals use it to get some other parts they need, creating an upgrade in the rotation and filling holes.  However, the risk is high as this all shows.  If he is a HOF'er no problem, but any lower quality than that and a bath could occur.

Is Max Scherzer as good as the top 5 Pitchers in Baseball? If you say yes or think he's very, very close then he's worth that kind of money. Most of the disagreement will occur with who's the top five. Whether or not they earn that money is immaterial, you must pay them that kind of money or someone else will. I think Max Scherzer is that good. You are entitled to disagree.

James Shields, on the other hand, compares poorly with the top 5 in Baseball and with Max Scherzer. The Jays' Starting Four, with Stroman, Hutchison, Dickey and Buehrle are as good as or better that Shields is right now and he's not getting better, whereas some of the Jays Starters will be better, even much better. It all depends on what you will pay, not what you should pay.

With just under 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report, I'm going to humbly step back and figure out what my expectations for the season are. Big picture because I don't think we're going to see many surprise additions before the season starts.

In the rotation, the veterans provide filler while I hope for the emergence of an ace and a few studs from the young arms. The bullpen appears no better than average and will cost games and morale. The lineup has a mix of great veterans, declining veterans and players in their prime who still have to prove themselves. The lack of top-tier youth in the lineup is troubling but not critical yet.

All in all I can't see this being more than a building season. Great bonus if the team makes the playoffs but not be expected. Beyond that, we won't win a WS with Dickey or Beuhrle starting game 1 and it's alot to expect a Sanchez or Stroman to be ready for this.

The season meets expectations if the young arms progress and there is stability in the lineup. The projected rotation means this could become a great multi-year team if they can manage the transition of the lineup.

The team exceeds expectations if the bullpen is much better than expected, the lineup is as expected and with the emergence or the addition of an ace starter. For an addition, management will have to decide if they want to go for it this season. I can't see them making this very risky decision now - maybe at mid-season.

".....they're ALMOST there and a couple million more would bring in a piece that fills a big hole, but all of a sudden the bank vault is closed. I know the team has to draw the line somewhere when it comes to payroll, but they seem like they're ready to go all in and try to win now, but they come up just short in spending what they need to get those final few pieces of the puzzle...."

I often have the same feeling, the same frustration, especially as week after week goes by without those final moves being done.  I would like those final pieces of the puzzle to be obtained too.  But I'm not yet 100 per cent certain that the "bank vault is closed."  There is still time for Anthopoulos to make two or three more moves.  I don't want to tell fans to "have faith" or "be patient" since our patience and faith haven't been rewarded in the past, but personally I'll wait until the season opens before I conclude that the Jays have deliberately left holes unfilled.

So even if the Jays do nothing to augment the roster, you will categorize that as them deliberately leaving holes unfilled, as opposed to AA being too constrained to fill them?

The following ex-Jays are still free agents - almost a full starting lineup!
P: Carlos Villanueva (would he re-sign here?), Dustin McGowan, Casey Jannsen - really, I think any of these 3 could be helpful.
1B: Lyle Overbay - can still sorta hit RPH at 90-100 OPS+. If his defense was still solid, I'd think about a cheap tryout..
2B: Kelly Johnson - probably won't be back
SS: (ok, he retired, but John McDonald)
3B: Jayson Nix - I don't think we need him
LF: Reed Johnson - seems to be done at this point
CF: Colby Rasmus - hard to know what's happening here
RF: Nolan Reimold - anyone have room on their DL?

How can 2015 be viewed as a building season, when most of the core players (Reyes, Bautista, EE, Martin, Donaldson) are past their prime and moving into their decline years, with Dickey and Buehrle probably in their twilight years?

2015 and 2016 should be all-in years, with another starting pitcher (say, McCarthy), a reliever (Miller? Clippard?), and perhaps a second baseman added to the roster.

The Jays are built to win - almost. They seem to be content with being almost, maybe, probably, kind of, hopefully (pick one) good enough. It's not particularly inspiring, although you have to respect Anthopoulos for doing the best with what he has.

"If the Jays can sign Donaldson for 5 years at $60M, they may as well lock it in if they believe in him. Could set it $4,$8,$12,$16,$20 = $60."

The Jays need to get a lot more than 1 FA year at 20m in return for guaranteeing Donaldson 36m over his final 3 Arb seasons.

I wish it weren't a building season but I can't see the management or ownership having the nuggets to go all-in yet. Maybe mid-season.

It's Decision Time for the Jays, and for the fans.

1) Blue Jays need Aaron Sanchez as a Starter. If he's needed in the Bullpen, the Jays must replace him with a Starter not found in-house. They shouldn't be rushing anyone from the minors, because that creates holes that must be filled. That is a problem because of a lack of depth. The second problem is who does A.A. acquire to take Sanchez's place?

2) Centerfield has been decided, it's Dalton Pompey's job to lose. Who fills his spot is totally unknown at present and that's Buffalo's loss.

3) Second Base is a sad situation, as someone named 'who' wins the job. The one thing we know for sure is that they won't be good enough. Ryan Goins swings a big bat and takes a long swing to miss most pitches. The worst part is that he can't hit a fastball. Until that changes, he's a one-trick pony, great defense. If he can hit, he'd be fine.

4) The Bullpen is still not good enough. The thought of Cecil as Closer is very scary. Sanchez could be very scary good. All the minor league signings and waiver claims are basically A.A.'s idea of how to fill a Bullpen, Plan C. And this from someone who said the Bullpen was our #1 priority.

Josh Donaldson was 29 in December. Is he truly " past his prime "? I'm not saying this in a sarcastic or quarrelsome way, just wondering when position players normally start to decline. Age 32 or 33, or earlier ?

Oh, just noticed Greenfrog said " most " of the core is past their prime. Yep, they probably are.

So even if the Jays do nothing to augment the roster, you will categorize that as them deliberately leaving holes unfilled, as opposed to AA being too constrained to fill them?

Well, if there wasn't a significant amount of money available beyond signing Martin, the Martin money would've probably been better spent elsewhere, since the team has bigger holes than at catcher. I love Martin and I'm excited about what he brings to the team, but it seems like if that's the only significant money the team spends, it's like using your home defense fund to upgrade the windows to bulletproof glass but not doing anything about the missing front door.

If AA is constrained by budget when it comes to filling the other holes, he did it to himself. Unless of course the bigwigs told him more money would be available after signing Martin, and then changed their minds after the contract was signed.

just wondering when position players normally start to decline

Just Google baseball aging curve and you will see that this is a topic that has been discussed for decades.

This is one of many essays on the subject.

Oh, and while "past his prime" is almost always used in a pejorative manner, it can be taken literally and not be an insult.

Josh Donaldson was worth about 8 and 7 wins the past two years. If he slides all the way down to Steamer's forecasted 5.6, he is still a highly valuable player, even though he is past his prime.

Josh Donaldson, 6'0" 220, steals a few bases so Catching didn't give him leg problems. He's a little shy of ABs due to being a Catcher and developing to a top 3B at this age makes him a little different. I think he's in the middle of his prime, not near the end. Of course, people will always disagree, and that's sad.

Of course ancient and decrepit, Josh Bautista would disagree. Well into his decline, Edwin Encarnacion would also disagree.

Yes, I didn't mean that all of the core players I mentioned were "past it" - they are clearly a very talented group that is still capable of putting up very good numbers. But the Jays should be capitalizing now. In 2016, players like Pompey, Stroman, Sanchez and Norris might really be hitting their stride. But by that time, Bautista will be 35, EE will be 33, Reyes will be 32, Martin will be 32, and Donaldson will be 30.

If players peak around 26-30, those core players will be drifting past their prime by 2016 and 2017. Performance will likely decline, both on offense and defense (soon, Reyes may no longer be able to play SS, and Bautista may have to be moved off RF). The likelihood of injury will increase. Martin's and Donaldson's salaries are going to be quite a bit higher.

And, of course, Bautista and EE may well be gone after 2016. Or they'll be around, but with higher salaries.

If the Jays miss the boat now, they may well end up with another long string of 75-85 win teams.

No question this is a 'go for it' year.  The challenge is getting the guys to go for it while still making sure Rogers makes the level of profit they want.  The Jays never have had an owner who didn't have profit as part of the equation (ie: no Stienbrenner) for better or worse.

Right now the holes are fairly clear - 1B, 2B, CF, and the bullpen with #5 starter also in the mix.  Solutions?
1B: assorted retreads/never were guys
2B: one hot shot kid and a batch of guys who we don't want in there for more than a couple of weeks
CF: 2 kids
#5: 2 kids plus a few vets who are pure #5/6 guys
Bullpen: a whole lot of arms, few with solid track records

Potentially it could work out, could even be a few 'wow' situations with the kids in CF/2B/#5.  Bullpens are always a crapshoot unless you have a Tom Henke/Duane Ward type combo.  I'd say the #1 concern should be 1B.  On the 40 man we have Justin Smoak, Matt Hague, Chris Colabello, and Danny Valencia fighting for time.  Also invited are Daric Barton and Jake Fox with a few OF'ers who might be able to jump in with Ezequiel Carrera, Andy Dirks, Caleb Gindl, and Ryan Kalish.  Am I the only one going 'who' to most of those names? 

FanGraphs for the 1B crew steamer projections....
Smoak: 0.9 WAR 240/324/416
Hague: 0 WAR 246/310/375
Colabello: 0.1 WAR 240/303/419
Valencia: 0 WAR 244/286/395
Barton: 0 WAR 243/339/355 but strong positive fielding at 1B
Fox: no projection, was in Mexican league last year, lifetime 237/288/425 in majors (last in 2011)
Carrera: 0 WAR 256/311/349
Dirks: 0.7 WAR 257/319/394 good D in LF/RF but blech in CF
Gindl: 0 WAR 234/301/370 a negative for UZR at all 3 OF positions in majors
Kalish: 0 WAR 237/293/358 a negative for UZR at all 3 OF positions in majors

So not a lot of 'wow' there (shocking I know).  Smoak is probably the best of the bunch, with Barton tempting with the strong defense.  Fox is one of those guys who is an unknown due to Mexican time.  Fox did get some AA time with the Phillies last year (78 games, 308/373/591) so who knows, he might be a nice surprise but I wouldn't bet on it.

Gallardo from Milwaukee to Texas Rangers: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/rangers-on-verge-of-acquiring-yovani-gallardo.html

Didn't give up much for him, it seems. YG's 2010-12 years seem behind him, but still an innings-eater whose stats suggest he hasn't fallen all that far. Probably a bad idea for Jays, though, given his flyball tendencies and distance hit stats.

Stoeten is talking about the Jays and Shields:

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/01/19/is-james-shields-to-the-blue-jays-even-a-good-idea/

Note also the bit about Sanchez in there. The cost of having him as a closer is that you basically shut down his secondary pitches, which puts him behind the development 8-ball. On the plus side, the bullpen looks less crap. The Clippard deal hurt, thought Jays needed him.

John, I don't see the 1B situation like that. Valencia should be the right handed half of a platoon. His career numbers vs lefties are outstanding. The left handed half should be Smoak. Smoak's career OPS vs righties is .709, but that's playing half his games in Seattle, and his career road OPS is 80 points higher than his home OPS, so bump that .709 figure by half of the 80 point difference, to about .749. Combined with Valencia's .870 career OPS vs lefties, I think you've got a decent 1B platoon. Most people don't realize how good Valencia is vs lefties. His career number is comparable to Bautista's or Encarnacion's vs lefties. Sure, ideally you'd like somebody a bit better than Smoak for the lefty portion of the platoon, but it's not a huge weakness.

"....So even if the Jays do nothing to augment the roster, you will categorize that as them deliberately leaving holes unfilled, as opposed to AA being too constrained to fill them?...."

I see that we have different definitions of "the Jays" when we're debating the organization.  You seem to define "the Jays" as "Anthopoulos" whereas I define "the Jays" as "ownership and management."  

If the Jays do nothing to augment the roster (or if they augment it only with low-cost pickups or revenue-neutral trades), it would mean that the owners deliberately refused to give additional payroll to Anthopoulos to allow him to acquire the high-calibre players that he needs to build a proper bullpen.  So yes, the holes would be deliberately left unfilled.

Of course they won't be totally unfilled.  Anthopoulos will do something, whether it's trading Navarro for a reliever or doing some other trade to find a reliever or two, but that would be a cheap solution to a significant problem.  (Especially if Sanchez is needed for the rotation, as currently seems likely.) 

Compared to the bullpen that they had last season, the Jays have lost their closer (Janssen), three of their expected high-leverage relievers (Santos, McGowan and Delabar, even if two of those three didn't fulfill their expected role), and their best late-season reliever (Sanchez, who's now in the rotation).  That's a major hit, a major loss, even if Delabar somehow returns to form in 2015 which is a dubious proposition at best.  How can they replace five relievers with Estrada and a batch of fringe relievers like Jenkins or their waiver pickups? Especially when everyone acknowledges that the bullpen was the single biggest contributor to the team's problems last season.  It obviously requires a more serious effort, and the free-agent market was the obvious place to go.  If the owners won't allow it, that's a fairly deliberate decision to leave holes unfilled.  And I would blame the owners, more than Anthopoulos.

There's no choice but to stretch both Sanchez and Estrada in spring training.

You got Loup and Cecil. Besides that Delabar is still under control for a year if he can put it together. There's also Drabek, who is out of options. Same with  Redmond and  Hendriks. Maybe Jenkins too. Ryan Tepera might be an option, but probably not in April.

How long will Miguel Castro stay with the big club in spring training? Yeah, not really an option.

I also see Jeff Francis, Preston Guilmet, Andrew Albers, Scott Barnes, Colt Hynes, Wilton Lopez, Rob Rasmussen and Matt West on the 40-man roster. And there's Greg Infante who isn't on the roster.

It would make sense to trade Navarro, but I'd want a reliever with options left.

Janssen might still be affordable. Not at good situation for either party.

Is it me or do we see less pitchers developing a splitter and moving to the bullpen?

Stretching both Sanchez and Estrada just makes sense.  If either or both are in the pen then they just have the ability to go a few more innings early in the season in a game.  Sanchez was in the rotation and fully stretched out when he came up and did well in the pen so I don't see any issues with that approach.

As to the pen, in 2014 the pen had a 4.09 ERA #12 45-18 saves-blown.  In 2013 it was #4 3.37 39-19.  In 2012 4.33 ERA #14 29-15.  So in Saves/Blown the Jays did BETTER in 2014 than 2013 - more saves, fewer blown.  Go figure.  The ERA though over those past 3 years has been all over the place.

The question really is what to expect next.  And when it comes to the pen, as the above shows, it is a crapshoot.  Blowing a fortune on it really isn't much of a solution.

One example of how the Jays could open up the vault a little, strengthen the bullpen and avoid losing any more valuable trade chips:  Burke Badenhop.  The Jays are rumored to be talking to him.

".....I also see Jeff Francis, Preston Guilmet, Andrew Albers, Scott Barnes, Colt Hynes, Wilton Lopez, Rob Rasmussen and Matt West on the 40-man roster....."

And, as noted, there are Tepera and Hendriks and Drabek as well.  And Oramas and Schultz.   Has there ever been a time in history when the Jays had so many relievers on the 40-man roster?  Is it an attempt to use quantity as a solution for a lack of quality?

I don't understand why a lot of people are freaking about the bullpen. The Jays had one of the better bullpens the year before last. For the most part, same group last season, different results. You simply just don't know, year to year. Cecil was incredible his All-Star season, same with Delabar. Cecil regressed last season, for numerous reasons, and Delabar found himself in the minors. Santos was a solid closer for the White Sox and he came to Toronto, had a good year, flamed out. Loup was great the past 2 season, came out nowhere and no one could have predicted his evolution from minors to majors; he was an afterthought for the bullpen. Bottom line is the Jays have a lot of internal candidates for their bullpen. You would think that 2 would rise to the top and be effective this year. If Navarro is trade, which I believe he will be, I would like to see that money spent elsewhere, rather than for arms in the bullpen because you can not predict the efficiency of a bullpen, year to year. And if you think you can, then predict the top 5 bullpens for the year and see how incorrect you are at the end of the season.

My optimal usage for someone like Sanchez would be a slightly reduced version of what Goose Gossage did in his 20s and early 30s- 54 appearances, 90-100 innings, a leverage of about 2.  It would be nice if Brett Cecil could fill the modified Sparky Lyle role, 54 appearances, 90 innings, a leverage of maybe 1.5-1.6.  I think he can.   You then have Estrada and Loup for 50-60 appearances and 60-70 innings with leverage of about 1.  That leaves about 170 lower leverage innings for the back end of the bullpen. 

I really hope that Gibbons/Walker break away from the 9th inning closer box.  The absence of Janssen (who is a fine pitcher but with limited durability) should help with that. 

There are a few of us, finch, who are more or less fine with the bullpen, and think the team has other glaring holes to fix first, primarily a rotation that is going to rely on 3 kids who have never thrown 200 innings. If they traded for or signed a legitimate starting pitcher that would immediately strengthen the entire pitching staff. They also need a potent left-handed bat badly.

"....you can not predict the efficiency of a bullpen, year to year...."

Lots of things are unpredictable, but past history gives some guidance.  You can't logically argue that 200 major-league relievers all have the exact same value because we're not sure how they'll perform next year.  There are no guarantees, but it's simply more likely that a reliever with an excellent track record has a better chance of performing well in 2015 than a reliever with a mediocre record.  Just because a few mediocre relievers somehow turn into excellent relievers, it doesn't logically follow that all mediocre relievers are as valuable as all excellent relievers.

That's why some relievers get $46-million multi-year contracts and others get $500,000 contracts.   Is the high-paid reliever likely to seem overpaid when we assess the season at the end?  Yes.  But it's still very likely that Andrew Miller or David Robertson will pitch much better in 2015 than a marginal guy like Rob Rasmussen or Kyle Drabek.

Of course that doesn't mean that the Jays should pay $46-million for a closer.  It doesn't even necessarily mean that they should pay $10-million or $15-million for a closer.  But in my view, it's really hard to believe that the Jays should be satisfied with a bunch of fringe guys with marginal records.  Even if there's a 20 per cent chance that this gamble pays off, I don't like the odds.   The Jays should look for relievers with good records.   It's okay to take a chance on an unheralded waiver pickup for the 6th or 7th spot in the bullpen, but they've already got Redmond (and probably Jenkins) for those slots.  We're talking about the high-leverage spots.  Cecil and Loup and Estrada can't do all the heavy lifting.

Of course I agree that the acquisition of a good starting pitcher would help to solve the problem, since Sanchez could become the closer.  But whether it's a good starter or a good reliever, the Jays need to find somebody good.  Preferably two somebodies.

It's interesting to compare the fans projections with the Steamer projections on Fangraphs.  Fans routinely project modestly better performance than Steamer (or any other system).  The fan projections for the established players on the Blue Jays are consistent with this view- Donaldson, Martin, Bautista, Reyes, Encarnacion, Smoak, Izturis and Saunders- are essentially within a very limited bound.  The fans disagree with Steamer's projection of Pompey offensively to a limited degree and defensively to a major degree.  The fans see him as an above average player in 2015.  The fans disagree significantly with the Steamer projections for all the Blue Jay starting pitchers, which suggests to me that they believe that Martin's pitch-framing is worth something not captured by Steamer.  The fans disagree massively with the projection for Sanchez (the consensus is him being a highly effective swingman throwing 125 innings) almost to the same degree that they do for Pompey. 

Incidentally, the Steamer projections on the player pages do not correspond with those found on the team pages.

Sounds like Colby might be reunited with the man who drafted him, Jeff Luhnow, the Astros GM.  Here's a Q&A with Luhnow about Colby from 2008:
BP: What are your expectations for Colby Rasmus in the 2008 season? JL: The same as they have been since we drafted him. Work hard, stay healthy, and compete.

Which brings us to the question, what are your expectations for Colby in 2015?  More importantly are your expectations for Pompey greater then those for Colby, at the plate?


92-93,
When you say we "need a potent LHB badly", do you mean like Colby?
Or do you mean someone who can hit RHP like Edwin (6th in AL OPS vs RHP in 2014), or JoseB (9th) or Saunders (19th)??

The Jays are reportedly interested in Johan Santana and Ronald Belisario. I'd pass on Belisario and his WHIP of 1.47 and 1.45 the last 2 years, but Santana is interesting. He only had 1 bad year, 2012, didn't pitch in 2011, 2013, 2014. He'll be 36 by the start of next season. Burke Badenhop might be interesting. He's had decent numbers, is a little vulnerable vs lefties, but the Jays have Cecil and Loup to help with that. Casey Janssen's still out there - he may be having a tough time finding a similar role to what he had with Toronto. I wouldn't mind seeing him back.

Just got thinking about Janssen, and went through his numbers for 2011, 2012, 2013 plus the first half of last season. Most will remember he got food poisoning, lost a lot of weight, and was roughed up a fair bit when he came back, as he clearly wasn't his usual sharp self. Adding his numbers up for those 3 full seasons plus last year up to mid July, He pitched 194 innings, had an ERA of 2.32, a WHIP of 0.96, and had a K/BB of 184/39. I think a lot of people don't realize how good he is.

Agreed.  Loved watching Casey pitch (quickly).  Efficient with pin-point control. 

Those are phenomenal stats.   Not sure why his jersey is 75% off at the Jays Shop! 

Bautista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson are obviously excellent hitters, and Reyes/Saunders/Martin should give you good ABs vs. RHP as well, but I don't like the idea of the lineup not having any left-handed hitter for the other team to really worry about. There's a lot of very good right-handed relief pitching in the AL East alone. If you're ranking Saunders 19th in the AL vs. RHP you are using a 175 PA minimum, and using that criteria you can actually see exactly what the Jays are missing most from the current lineup: Adam Lind, 2nd in the AL to Mike Trout @ .354/.409/.533, and 1st in OBP and wOBA.

Saunders will outhit Lind in 2015.  And he'll wear a glove while doing it.  We'll be alright with the lumber.

It's also worth pointing out (for fun) that Smoak hit .260/.361/.477 in 2013 vs RHP in >350 PA.

I don't like the idea of the lineup not having any left-handed hitter for the other team to really worry about.

I have bad memories of a Jays team that was slaughtering LHP but struggling otherwise. Still, I love the idea of not having any left-handed hitter that the other team can neutralize with a LOOGY.

John Gibbons has led the club for 5 and 1/2 seasons.  During that time, the club has underperformed their Pythagorean record by 20 games total, and has not outperformed it in any season.  I suppose that could happen by random chance; it sure would be nice to have 10 of those games back in 2015.

I have bad memories of a Jays team that was slaughtering LHP but struggling otherwise. Still, I love the idea of not having any left-handed hitter that the other team can neutralize with a LOOGY.

No kidding. Especially since it seems the Jays are perenially awful lefty on left.

Mike,

Pythagorean theorem relates to run differential.

IIRC, in the Joe Torre era of Yankee dominance, Torre followed a hi-lo bullpen usage pattern.  Basically he had 3 great relievers he would use when Yanks were winning and used 3 mediocre (at best) relievers when the Yanks were losing.  This led to some nasty blowouts where the lead of the other team would expand against the poor Yankee relievers.  By year end the Yanks run differential didn't look so large but their success in protecting leads meant they had a great winning percentage.

I feel that Gibby has a more random use of relievers, such that even when trailing he might bring out his best relievers (which often lead to their overuse and burnout).

Is this (part of) a possible explanation for Gibby's underperformance vs Pythagorean?

IIRC, in the Joe Torre era of Yankee dominance, Torre followed a hi-lo bullpen usage pattern.  Basically he had 3 great relievers he would use when Yanks were winning and used 3 mediocre (at best) relievers when the Yanks were losing.  This led to some nasty blowouts where the lead of the other team would expand against the poor Yankee relievers.  By year end the Yanks run differential didn't look so large but their success in protecting leads meant they had a great winning percentage.

I feel that Gibby has a more random use of relievers, such that even when trailing he might bring out his best relievers (which often lead to their overuse and burnout).

Is this (part of) a possible explanation for Gibby's underperformance vs Pythagorean?

It helps to have Mariano Rivera. It's true that Gibbons hasn't used his bullpen optimally- his best reliever the last 2 years has been Brett Cecil and he's had him pitching in medium leverage situations (avg. 1.25).  In Gibbons' first go-round (2005-2008), he had a similar issue with Scott Downs.  It may be part of the explanation for the underperformance, but I'd venture a guess that some of it is just luck.

If Gibbons settles on Sanchez and Cecil as his high-leverage relief guys, it should be better this year. 

Scutaro's been DFA'ed by the A's. Hmm...

Wait, he's also owed almost $7M for 2015. Never mind.

Scutaro actually plays for the Giants, not the A's, and was DFA'd because he just had spinal fusion to his neck and likely will miss all or most of the 2015 season. I mentioned him a while back as somebody the Jays might like for 2B, but that was prior to the surgery. Unfortunately, his career might now be over.

From what I'm reading the Giants intend basically to remove Scutaro from the 40 man and expect him to stick around to see if he can make a full comeback from injury.  At this point he is just a spring invite guy, not someone anyone could count on.  Since he left the Jays he has a 101 OPS+ (99 as a Jay) and has made $5.5 to $6.7 mil a year every single year (6 including this year).  I think the Jays got a great deal there - 2 years for $2.6 total - 9.7 WAR vs $30 mil for 5 years and 9.4 WAR total since (plus $6.7 this year).

Well, he's certainly not a spring invite guy - he's out for at least the next 6 months with the spinal surgery. It would make sense for the Giants to keep their eyes on him in case he can make a comeback - the doctors will know sometime this summer if he can continue playing baseball or not. Scutaro was instrumental in the Giants 2012 World Series win, hitting .362 with an OPS of .859 after they acquired him from the Rockies in mid-season, and then winning the NLCS MVP award as he became the first player to have 6 multi hit games in an LCS. The next year, he made the all star team, but the spinal problem has derailed his career. It was a big loss for the Giants, but fortunately, Joe Panik stepped in and did a great job.

Hodgie,

A long time ago on this thread you asked why I said Pompey was "weak vs LHP"?

Here are his OPS stats vs LHP for his career:
2014 in mlb: .259
2013: .794
2012: .282
2011: .517
2010: .250

Those OPS stats are the reason.  Now that I've had time to review his stats I see that the atrocious OPS numbers are all in tiny sample sizes, and in fact the more PAs he got vs LHP the better he did, including the most relevant and largest samples in 2013 and 2014 in the minors. 

Quick peaks can be deceiving.

If you look at Pompey's entire pro career, minors + majors, his slash lines are: vs LHP .267/.345/.419/.764 and vs RHP .280/.367/.417/.784, about as even as you are going to find. He didn't play much his first 2 seasons, so I had a look at just 2013 and 2014 in the minors, his first 2 full seasons. The slash lines for those 2 seasons (minors only) are: vs LHP .292/.370/.462/.832 and vs RHP .288/.372/.419/.791, again very close, with a little more power vs lefties. In his extremely small sample size vs big leaguers, 39 total AB's, he fared much better vs righties. At this point in his career, I think it's premature to say he is weaker on one side of the plate. He looks like he could be a true switch hitter, who doesn't have a big split batting right or left. If anything, he looks like he might get on base a bit better vs righties, and have more power against lefties. Mike Green has mentioned that his swing looks long batting right handed, and quicker left handed. It will be interesting to see how the lefty/righty splits look after 2-3 more full seasons to get a better idea of the performance from both sides of the plate. We still have only about 1,100 total AB's in his entire pro career, he's very young, and still developing.

Right, Dan. I wouldn't say Pompey is weak from the right side, but rather that he is noticeably better in most respects (other than power) from the left.  This is typical for switch-hitters, because they get more practice from the left side. 

Mike, I've heard that mentioned many times, that switch hitters typically hit better batting left handed. Many times it is said that reason for this is the extra practice they have hitting left handed because they get more plate appearances. I'm not sure I buy either statement. I would like to see a study that shows the typical results of switch hitters. This article says that the typical platoon split for mlb switch hitters is close to zero.

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/16/blue-jays-true-talent-offensive-platoon-splits/

IF there are more switch hitters who bat better left handed, I've always figured there were 2 biases which would account for most/all of it. One, a switch hitter who has a large platoon split will have poor overall numbers if their weak side is batting left handed, whereas if left handed is their strong side, the overall numbers will look good. This means switch hitters whose weak side is hitting left handed are less likely to ever make it to the big leagues. Take 2 switch hitters in the minors - player A hits .310 vs righties, .210 vs lefties. Player B hits .310 vs lefties and .210 vs righties. Player A's overall average will be about .285, while Player B's overall average will be about .235, because of the preponderance of AB's vs righties. Player A is more likely to get promoted, because his overall numbers look better, and because he has more value. So IF there are more switch hitters in the majors who hit better left handed, a part of the reason is that some of the ones who hit better right handed never make it.

The 2nd thing is that left handed batters have the natural advantage of being close to 1st base when hitting, and their swing often has them leaning towards 1st base at the end, so they will be able to beat out ground balls for hits more easily. A switch hitter who has exactly as much pure hitting ability from both sides would be expected to have slightly better numbers left handed because of this.

Again, I would love to see a study that compares switch hitters' results at the big league level, comparing their numbers batting lefty and righty. The article referenced above just mentions that the difference is close to zero, but says nothing about how this was arrived at, so I'm not sure how valid it is.

I couldn't find a source for the comment, but it is probably right.  I did a quick scan of notable switch-hitters and about as many hit better right-handed than left-handed.  The two I found with significant differentials (Mantle and Teixeira) were both better from the right-side.  Which is odd because of the amount of time spent in Yankee stadium.  Just checked and Bernie Williams was the same.  Pete Rose had a significant advantage from the left. 

Scratch what I said...

Buster Olney has posted his top ten "best teams" list:

1. Washington
2. LAD
3. St. Louis
4. KC
5. Pittsburgh
6. LAA
7. Seattle
8. Detroit
9. Boston
10. Baltimore

Honourable mentions: Chicago WS, NYY, San Francisco, Cleveland, Miami, San Diego

Playing in Safeco Field in Seattle, messing with a player's mind because they don't understand playing in a park that suppresses Average, Power and most everything else. I suspect both Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders should be able to hit better than even anyone hopes. Until I see different, more than a s.s.s., I won't change my mind. Offense will be better this year, as will be the Defense.

Dalton Pompey will be an upgrade over Colby Rasmus for two reasons. Defense will never be the adventure for Dalton that it was for Colby. Finally an end to the never-ending strikeouts. Dalton might not be much to start with, but he will get better. With Colby there was a limit to how good he'd be, and it got less and less each year.