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uglyone - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 01:27 PM EST (#297878) #
Blue Jays @BlueJays
.@RADickey43 was impressed with @russellmartin55 behind the plate this morning in their bullpen session http://t.co/NHQ5d7UFpO

Shi Davidi @ShiDavidi
Martin on knuckler: "It’s not going to do something crazy that I haven’t seen before. It’s not going to stop halfway and make a right turn"

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
Both Dickey and Martin seemed pleased with the way their bullpen session went. #BlueJays
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 02:05 PM EST (#297880) #
Wow! Thank you John.
uglyone - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 02:48 PM EST (#297882) #
if only we had reason to believe martin has a better chance at catching dickey than jpa did.
China fan - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 03:03 PM EST (#297883) #
Martin is clearly a far better catcher than JPA, so it would stand to reason that he might handle the knuckle-ball better than JPA.  Of course we don't know yet, and I agree that we can't just assume that Martin can do it. 

The following tweet was also interesting today:

@TSNScottyMac R.A. Dickey effectively endorses Russell Martin to catch his knuckleball. Far different words than he had for JPA, Kratz.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 03:17 PM EST (#297884) #
Oh, I have no doubt Martin will be a more effective knuckle-catcher than JPA. (Though it's interesting that while Thole may be an exceptional knuckleball caddy, he doesn't seem to bring much to the table with other pitchers.)

But it's February - everyone is awesome at everything. Adam Lind can hit LHP in February, and everyone is in the best shape of their lives. Catching a knuckleball in one of the first bullpen sessions of spring training is a lot different from catching a knuckleball thrown with the intention of getting a batter out.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 03:18 PM EST (#297885) #
I am almost positive Dickey endorsed Kratz to catch his Knuckleball last Spring, in much the same way he did with Martin today, and then the team still inexplicably went with Thole at the end of Spring Training.

I still think Navarro gets traded and Thole catches Dickey. There's too much invested in Dickey to play around with his confidence, and too much invested in Martin to have his main strength (defense/framing) hindered by doing something he's never done before. I think it's smart to have Martin catch Dickey at some point, maybe a few games here and there, but full-time is a different story.
John Northey - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 03:24 PM EST (#297886) #
Wonder if KC would trade Kratz back here if Thole is lost and Navarro traded?  I'm sure the Jays could find someone if they had to to be the backup catcher/Dickey catcher.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 03:30 PM EST (#297887) #
When we signed Martin I was delighted - even at his lofty salary. I was excited because I thought the Jays were entering an era of great young pitching (Stroman, Hutch, Sanchez, Norris, Castro, Osuma, Hoffman and at least three or four others...) and we were going to see these guys taught and protected by one of the best receivers of this generation of catchers. And now, in addition, he may allow us the chance to lose Thole's 1 million plus salary and perhaps allow us to pick up a nice piece near the trading deadline - if one will be needed - as I suspect it might...

My only serious concern about Martin is (and has been) his bat...if he regresses back to the Yankee version, which I used to watch and just shake my head at - I shudder at the thought - 80+ big ones for a great glove might begin to grate on one's nerves when he is using the stick to put of Mendoza level stats. Hopefully, my fears will not be reflected by his performance.

 A note about Navarro...other than EE (who I consider a god(ish) type of otherworldly delight) last year's team had only two guys who were "on" every at bat. One was Cabrera and the other guy who never seemed to waste an at bat was Navarro. Personally, I'd be happy if we were forced (cough) to keep that very professional bat of his on the team all year.



Mike Green - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 03:36 PM EST (#297888) #
No jose, mylegacy?  I think I'll pour myself a wee dram or maybe even a double!
China fan - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 04:21 PM EST (#297889) #
If anyone is interested in more detail on Martin's likely ability to catch the knuckle-ball, this is a good (if perhaps over-optimistic) analysis:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/martin-dickey-dynamic-key-blue-jays-success/

Ryan Day - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 04:31 PM EST (#297890) #
Dickey was fairly positive about Kratz last year.
"I felt like he looked real comfortable back there. Outside of the one passed ball, I felt like he handled it pretty well."
Today, on Martin:
“I don’t anticipate us having trouble, I think he’s going to be able to do it,”
Mind you, the dynamic is entirely different - Kratz was a minor-league journeyman who wasn't even guaranteed a roster spot, while Martin is a high-profile FA with a great reputation. Dickey's not going to diss him in the first week of spring training.
China fan - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 06:31 PM EST (#297891) #
I suppose you can always pick out selective quotes to prove a point.   But the Jays reporters who actually listened to Dickey talking about Kratz and JPA in the past, and compared it to his comments on Martin this year, felt there was a big difference. 

Anyway it's hardly worth arguing about.  But I do think the early cynicism is not really warranted. It's obvious that Martin is far more athletic and nimble than Katz and JPA and will certainly do better with the knuckle-ball than they did.   Hey, if Henry Blanco can do an adequate job, I would predict that Martin can probably do it too.

Having said all that, the obvious issue is whether Navarro gets traded or not.  I still think it's very likely that Navarro gets traded by the end of spring training, Thole is kept on the roster, and the questions about Martin become moot.  But it's still better to have Martin capable of catching Dickey on some days, so that the team is not entirely reliant on Thole, especially if Thole hits badly again.




rafael - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 06:46 PM EST (#297892) #
I think AA's mood is different this year for tolerating Thole.
Thole proved that it wasn't just the concussion aftermath dampening his hitting. Martin needs to play a lot to make his acquisition worthwhile.
Dickie gets less babying in his third year - and where AA's job is on line.
In my ideal world the team that takes Navarro will need to throw in a catcher that hits better than Thole and doesn't need to catch knuckleballs. Or Navarro just gets happy about being a Jay for a year - the amazing shrinking 2015 budget makes me dubious that if his salary gets freed up ... we'd actually spend it... so I (selfishly) am not worried that there is less than optimal value for his salary.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, February 25 2015 @ 10:32 PM EST (#297893) #
I can see why Adam Lind was traded (to be polite), he's turned into the gift that keeps on giving. Between an article in today's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and an interview today with Bob Elliot (compliments to http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/2/25/8110825/adam-lind-rips-the-blue-jays-medical-staff) he rips Jays' Medical Staff. Every time I see what he's said or listened to him speak, I come up with one conclusion, he's not that bright. Should I be surprised or is that normal?
Mylegacy - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 12:52 AM EST (#297894) #
Not that I actually give a shit about being correct - but - through the bottom of my crystal scotch glass I think that by May 15th the Jays hitting line-up will be looking something like this...

Leadoff: Reyes (R)(L)
2nd: Travis (R) - Pompey (L)
3rd: Bautista (R)
4th: EE (R)
5th: Donaldson (R)
6th: Saunders (L)
7th: Valencia (R) - Smoak (L)
8th: Martin (R)
9th: Travis (R) - Pompey (L)

As Pompey gets more experience I see him batting 2nd full time - remember he's a Switch hitter - when Reyes is gone or finished as a lead-off guy I see Pompey sliding into that role. I think Travis is the more advanced all round hitter of the two at this time (I see Travis' bat as being like a mix of Navarro and Melky). Too much to expect? I don't think so - perhaps too much right away - but soon... I do NOT trust Martin's bat - last year his production was an obvious gift from the gods - the gods are rarely kind two years in a row 'specailly with such an old player as Martin. Valencia and Smoak might be Valencia and Navarro when EE is playing first.

Imagine a lineup with several true stars and the worse hitter being Martin. This looks like a Championship quality offensive team - even if not the 27 Yanks (not that I remember them)...

IF, as I expect, Stroman, Hutch and Norris produce prodigiously with The Big B being the number 4 starter and Tricky Dickey being the 5th - this will also be a Championship quality starting five. Perhaps this will be the year in which a few celebratory glasses of single malt will be in order...yum, yum...
scottt - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:23 AM EST (#297896) #
Lind's been often injured and they forced him to play on a broken foot. He's been seeing new doctors and currently feels great--which is normal since it's the off season. If you see several doctors you will have some that you like more and some that you like less. It's perfectly normal.

It would be interesting to compare the conditioning programs he received from both teams. He seems to indicate that the Blue Jays made him work only on his back which sounds strange.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:28 AM EST (#297897) #
Michael Saunders torn meniscus, out till July....
Thomas - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:50 AM EST (#297898) #
Apparently Saunders tore the meniscus after stepping on a soft spot in center field at Bobby Mattick field that the club has had complaints about previously.

AA is saying he'll place calls with other teams (San Diego for one has an excess of outfielders and names like Venable or Quentin may be available), but will also look internally to fill the gap.

Saunders will be out until at least July.
Mike Green - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:56 AM EST (#297899) #
Well, I guess that pretty much settles one question.  Pompey will almost certainly start in centerfield on opening day.  With Pillar and Bautista in the corners and Dickerson and Carrera fighting it out for the 4th OF slot (my money's on Dickerson).  It should be all right. 
85bluejay - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 09:30 AM EST (#297900) #
That's a tough break - San Diego will have excess outfielders - Will Venable seems like a good fit - LHB, reasonable contract, some speed & power, good defense including adequate CF & with his down year in 2014 & impending FA shouldn't require elite talent to acquire.

the jays spring training site is regarded as poor, I know the jays will defend it but I worry .
bpoz - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 10:45 AM EST (#297901) #
It will be interesting to see how AA deals with the Saunders injury. 1st step 60 day DL. Next step...??
John Northey - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 10:55 AM EST (#297902) #
The Jays were talking about moving away from Dunedin before.  This coudl jump that talk.  A park that cost them 1/2 a season of a player is a multi-million dollar cost due to poor groundskeeping.  Strong incentive to look elsewhere if the Jays had been complaining and nothing was being done about it.
eudaimon - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 10:58 AM EST (#297903) #
Maybe AA can trade Navarro for an outfielder. What teams could use a starting catcher?

I wouldn't be surprised though if he waits it out until the end of spring training though. There's no real rush to pick up an outfielder, and perhaps another teams injury will increase Navarro's value
Mike Green - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:06 AM EST (#297904) #
If Navarro were to be traded without a catcher returning, the Blue Jay depth chart at catcher would be Martin, Thole, Jimenez, Nickeas, Pentecost.  I would sure want to make sure that Jimenez was healthy before contemplating that. 
John Northey - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:08 AM EST (#297905) #
Boston has an overabundance of OF'ers as do the Dodgers.  By waiting he might be able to pick a good one up off of waivers near the end of spring and make another team pay the contract of the player instead.  Pillar and Pompey get full-time play in spring until then and a good chance to see if any of the AAAA guys signed have anything until then.
MatO - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:26 AM EST (#297906) #
Wilner is reporting that Dirks should be cleared for baseball activities in the next couple of weeks. If he can get healthy he'd be a fine stop-gap. Much better than Dickerson.
Oceanbound - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:38 AM EST (#297907) #
I don't think Mike Nickeas is with the Jays anymore, he seems to be coaching at Georgia Tech now.
Mike Green - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:39 AM EST (#297908) #
Definitely, MatO.  We'll see if Dirks is ready when the bell rings.
uglyone - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:41 AM EST (#297909) #
5 months seems excessive for a meniscus tear. thought that was usually a 4-6 week thing. 4-6 months is an ACL/MCL length recovery.

that being said, I don't mind pillar getting a shot at fulltime duty. things seem to click for him at the mlb level sometime midseason, and he kind of tore it up a bit the last month or two. and his defense seems to be plus all over the OF.

no guarantees he can hit righties but he might.
Ryan Day - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:42 AM EST (#297910) #
Derrick Chung got an invitation to Spring Training, so he's probably on the depth chart somewhere.
uglyone - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:45 AM EST (#297911) #
I still think boston is a good trade match. they're going with uber-D at the C spot with vazquez but there's a good chance that that ends up being too much of a disaster offensively to stick with. and I doubt they want to rush swihart to the bigs unless he's absolutely crushing AAA (which he mos def did not do last year).

navarro for victorino makes sense imo.
uglyone - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 11:46 AM EST (#297912) #
*with vazquez/hanigan*
Mike Green - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 12:11 PM EST (#297913) #
Thank you for the reminders about Nickeas and Chung, oceanbound and Ryan Day.  If one trades Navarro and Jimenez is not healthy, you are a Martin injury away from a Thole/Chung catching situation.  I would make sure that Jimenez is healthy. 

And as for Victorino, he is owed $13 million for 2015.  Somehow I doubt that the Jays will absorb the additional $8 million and if they are willing to do that, there would be better uses for the money.

rafael - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 01:30 PM EST (#297914) #
$2.875 million doesn't go far these days.
Guy has a fresh start to an injury prone reputation can't get his body safely to March ?
The clock struck one I think. Two more and we're out.
John Northey - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 01:45 PM EST (#297915) #
Might it be a good idea for the Jays to save cash and go nuts in the amatuer draft this year?  Last years #1 overall pick who didn't sign Brady Aiken and another high pick who didn't sign Jacob Nix will both be in the draft again.  If they fall far enough I'd say draft and say 'screw it' to the cap so it would cost 2 first round picks those 2 are first round picks and getting them would be a big plus for the Jays system.  Then keep drafting hard to sign guys after that and blow the draft wide open someone will eventually why not the Jays?  Mixed with blowing a wad on the international free agents the Jays system could move into the top 5 easily if they could pull it off.  Expensive but if the players develop it would be cheap (one year of all-star performance would be worth at least $10 mil).  If you can get 2 extra first round picks signed then losing 2 future ones isn't a big deal.
jerjapan - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 02:22 PM EST (#297916) #
It certainly didn't take long for depth to become an issue. The problem was never the availability of quality depth for short-term losses - certainly Dirks, Cabrera and Dickerson could cover a 15 day DL stint. The problem with stacking the starters at the expense of fleshing out the major league depth was always long-term injury to a starter like Saunders. Adding a Zobrist (or keeping Lawrie, not that I don't like the trade) would have allowed some lineup shuffling to cover something like this. Even a Bonifacio type would look good right now. Smith Jr. is our closest prospect, and he's not close and may not even be an OF long term.

I have loads of faith in AA, but little faith that Rogers will pay for a legit replacement - even a Venable type. Another injury like this could cripple the season - how do we cover for a Donaldson or a Reyes injury? and spring training has just started....
Mike Green - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 02:31 PM EST (#297917) #
I am totally comfortable with the depth in the outfield.  If Pillar plays most days in left-field until July, the club will be fine.  If Dirks is also available, so much the better.

This is an injury that the club was reasonably well prepared for.  There is no need to tempt fate by harping on the areas where they are not as well prepared...

Chuck - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 03:19 PM EST (#297919) #
An oft-injured player gets injured. Imagine the odds.
eudaimon - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 03:36 PM EST (#297920) #
Apparently Papelbon would waive his no-trade clause if he was traded to the Blue Jays...

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/brewers-out-toronto-blue-jays-interest-jonathan-papelbon-more

dan gordon - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 03:51 PM EST (#297921) #
I don't think the drop off from Saunders to Pillar is all that big, frankly. I know I'm more optimistic about Pillar than most people here - I'm looking at his minor league stats, and not placing much weight on his brief mlb appearances. After that ridiculously bad start he had last year, he hit .359 with decent power and a good stolen base percentage in 351 AAA AB's. He's been improving at a very fast rate, and I think he can hit .300 or close to it, with some pop and some steals, while playing good defense in LF. Shame about Saunders, though. I was looking forward to seeing what he could do now that he was out of that hitters' graveyard in Seattle.
uglyone - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 04:17 PM EST (#297922) #
agreed. he was a different hitter in his second callup when he didn't swing at every single pitch like he did in his first callup.

I remember him talking about the advice Bautista gave him - that he should be real aggresive st the plate and show pitchers he wasn't scared - and thinking that was the absolute worst advice you could give an already over-aggressive kid like pillar.

I don't think he'll ever be great vRHP but the kid has always hit.
scottt - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#297923) #
A meniscus can take a long time to heal following surgery. Even if Pillar wins LF, the Jays still need a new 4th outfielder, but I don't foresee spending any significant money on the position. A left handed bat would be nice there.

Also, it's a lot less tempting to rest Bautista at DH while EE plays 1B.

All in all, this probably cost the club 1 or 2 wins over the season.

Mike Green - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 05:01 PM EST (#297924) #
Saunders was projected by both Steamer and ZIPS to have under 500 PAs.  He may yet get 350.  What the club loses will depend on how his replacements do and how quickly he heals.  It's not that big a deal (although it obviously is a blow for Saunders). 
christaylor - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:00 PM EST (#297925) #
One of the things the Jays needed to go right to be good just went wrong and that's OK. It went wrong and some projection systems were expecting it -- no big deal, except that the team still looks to be about .500

I wouldn't be surprised if this team is what it looks like (and did in 06 and 08) one of the better non-playoff teams. That's not horrible, that is a fun to watch, we'll have some good stories, but ultimately a whole lot of what ifs... and another season, similar to the last two, of not winning back the casual Toronto baseball fan, but with the added sting of a falling CDN $.
China fan - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:11 PM EST (#297926) #
The Jays have signed Johan Santana to a minor-league deal, with a spring training invite.  He pitched in the Venezuela league this winter, but had some shoulder problems there.  Has anyone seen a reliable scouting report from Venezuela on whether he seemed to have anything left in the tank?
greenfrog - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:29 PM EST (#297927) #
I don't know what impact the loss of Saunders will have on the team this year. People seem confident that it's no big deal. I'm not prepared to go that far. I think Saunders was a potentially important part of the roster, given his upside, LH bat, and all-around game. Pillar and Pompey are still unproven. And the Jays do not have a particularly deep roster. It's not just that they're switching from Saunders to Pillar, but they've lost future depth in case of injury, underperformance, potential trades, etc., and in CF and in terms of platoon matchups.
uglyone - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:31 PM EST (#297928) #
its not that it's no big deal, rather that injuries are expected.

its not the only injury that's gonna happen this year.
Four Seamer - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:39 PM EST (#297929) #
Sounds like it wouldn't have worked from a payroll perspective, but it sure would be nice to have Happ and Cabrera on the roster, instead of Saunders on the DL.  Ah well, still zeroes in the loss column.
dan gordon - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:41 PM EST (#297930) #
Good to see them sign Santana. He was great up to 2010, then got hurt. Since then the only mlb pitching he's done was 21 starts in 2012, with an ERA of 4.85. It may take a while to work the kinks out, particularly to regain his control, but he has a chance to help the team.
bpoz - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 06:52 PM EST (#297931) #
J Santana, LHP. Lefties seem to stick around forever. So who knows. He will also get to meet M Buehrle, who seem to always be v good without overpowering the hitters.
Chuck - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 07:04 PM EST (#297932) #
Lefties seem to stick around forever. So who knows.

Santana has had reverse platoon splits for his career, so LOOGYdom was not a likely career path for him even before the injuries.

I'm rarely a fan of signing once famous players. It has been 5 years since he was an effective major leaguer. That's a long, long time.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 07:33 PM EST (#297933) #
I'm calling it now: today will be a net win for the blue Jays. Sick changeups never die and Santana will be that good.

Ok I'm half way through a bottle of wine but I don't see any other way to look at the season and remain sane.
electric carrot - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:05 PM EST (#297934) #
I love the Santana pickup.  The guy we have has EXACTLY the same DNA as the guy who was awesome a decade or so ago.  Who knows -- maybe ...
Lylemcr - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:05 PM EST (#297935) #
Sigh. I live in Seattle. Same story on Saunders. .different team. He could be good. Could. ...

cybercavalier - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 08:57 PM EST (#297936) #
Is Santana's baseball DNA beneficial to developing Jays' young pitching ? At the bigger picture, could veteran's baseball DNA be transplanted onto young players ?
Four Seamer - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 09:27 PM EST (#297937) #
This is reminiscent of the time the Jays signed a past his prime Frank Viola. Hopefully this works out a lot better for the Jays (as in he gets a lot fewer starts than Frankie V did before the team cut bait).
greenfrog - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 09:46 PM EST (#297938) #
I wonder if Santana has any Latin American connections that could be useful in unearthing IFA prospects and/or inducing them to sign with the Jays.
SK in NJ - Thursday, February 26 2015 @ 10:19 PM EST (#297939) #
Losing Saunders stings, but I agree with what others have said, going from Saunders to Pillar isn't a huge downgrade. Pillar is projected to be about a 1.0 WAR player, while Saunders is projected at 1.7 (Steamer). If the Jays can find someone who can hit RHP to fill in while Pillar plays against lefties (a healthy Dirks?), the Jays should be able to minimize the damage a bit.

Losing Saunders definitely hurts, especially from a depth standpoint (Pompey better be ready now), but it could be a lot worse. Please stay healthy Bautista, Donaldson, Martin, Edwin, and Reyes!!! Heck, throw in Stroman, Hutchison, Dickey, Buehrle, Cecil, Loup, etc, from the pitching side while I'm at it.
dan gordon - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 02:03 PM EST (#297940) #
Rotoworld quotes Shi Davidi as saying that AA says Santana is highly unlikely to be ready for opening day. Also that he will make an annual salary of $2.5 million plus incentives while on the major league roster, and that he has an opt out option on April 28th.
John Northey - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 04:26 PM EST (#297941) #
Eh, as long as he doesn't get a rotation slot over a kid who has earned it unless he comes out gangbusters.  The only downside is playing him over the kids for an extended period.  For 3-5 starts early on not a big deal (get an extra year for one of the kids).  Could be useful in the pen as another LHP if Cecil is closing.
Dave Till - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 04:50 PM EST (#297942) #
Santana last pitched effectively in 2010, which was a long time ago. For example, Vernon Wells hit 31 home runs and batted .273 that year.

You never know, but Father Time is a relentless opponent, and I expect nothing from Santana.
scottt - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 05:06 PM EST (#297943) #
Santana will probably not be ready by April 1st and gone by April 28. He's probably just an insurance in case things go really poorly in spring training.
dan gordon - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 06:47 PM EST (#297944) #
Nobody knows how good Santana might be this year. Maybe he will never make it back to the majors, but he was a star when he was healthy and he's not too old. There is a non-zero chance that he will be very good. I like taking a low-risk shot at a guy like that.

Article on Rotoworld says the Jays are looking at Dayan Viciedo. Very poor defender, with power. Hits very well vs lefties - career OPS .837 against them, but doesn't give you much vs righties. Turns 26 in a couple of weeks. I'd rather have Pillar as my left fielder, but he'd give them some depth.
China fan - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 07:16 PM EST (#297945) #
Michael Saunders will be back with the Jays by mid-April.  His recovery is accelerated because he had 60% of the meniscus removed.  Sounds like he voluntarily accepted that, even though it likely means that he faces the hell of arthritis in his knee when he reaches middle age.  Some reports suggest he had little choice about it, other reports say it was essentially his decision.  Either way, I admire his courage in accepting the long-term pain, even if it's a short-term benefit for the Jays.
JB21 - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 07:24 PM EST (#297946) #
For the record, little choice because of the amount of damage that was done, not because he forced by the Jays. Just to be clear.

Good short term news for the team, bad long term news for Saunders.
China fan - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 07:30 PM EST (#297947) #
But even before it was discovered that it couldn't be repaired, Saunders had already decided to remove it -- so that he could get back to baseball faster.  Here is the relevant passage from Griffin's story tonight:

General manager Alex Anthopoulos said Saunders had already chosen removal to get back on the field sooner, but that when his knee was examined the damage was so that there was no option to repair. Saunders will be running in two weeks.

John Northey - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 07:32 PM EST (#297948) #
If Saunders is only gone until mid-April then no need for a trade.  Pillar & Pompey can man LF/CF with no problem for 1/2 a month.  One of the AAAA guys can be the backup. 
JB21 - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 07:36 PM EST (#297949) #
Agree CF, I was just saying that he wasn't forced by the Jays to do so, but by the actual knee.
China fan - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 07:44 PM EST (#297950) #
Thanks, JB21,  I hadn't quite read your comment correctly.  Still, nobody seriously thinks that the Jays would impose a medical decision on one of their players against his wishes, surely?
Mike Green - Friday, February 27 2015 @ 09:54 PM EST (#297951) #
Sounds like he voluntarily accepted that, even though it likely means that he faces the hell of arthritis in his knee when he reaches middle age.  Some reports suggest he had little choice about it, other reports say it was essentially his decision.  Either way, I admire his courage in accepting the long-term pain, even if it's a short-term benefit for the Jays.

I don't know that it is a likely consequence of a meniscectomy that arthritis will follow in 15-20 years.  There is unquestionably a noticeable increase in risk, but how much of an increased risk seems to depend on a variety of factors including the type of tear and BMI. 

It might be a good idea for the club to give him regular days off during long home-stands when he returns.  Pounding on that surface probably wouldn't be the best for him, and facing a lefty at home would be a perfect time to give Pillar some playing time. 
uglyone - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 01:52 AM EST (#297952) #
even if they had been able to attempt to repair it, its far from certain that repair would actually work out any better for him. its an iffy surgery that iften doesn't work at all, and there would be lingering pain anyways.

besides, with medical advancements I'm sure even this removal surgery is done much more effectively and safely than before. and I bet you they come up with a great synthetic meniscus by the time he retires.
greenfrog - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 10:15 AM EST (#297953) #
The injury update is somewhat good news. It is frustrating that Saunders's injury appears to have been avoidable, caused as it was by substandard groundskeeping. It's hard to imagine something like this happening in, say, the Cardinals organization.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 10:24 AM EST (#297954) #
Good news at last, with the Michael Saunders' results. Is he likely to have any problems, over the next two or three years, arising from this? Ideally, it would be nice if we could give every Outfielder a day off each week, giving the 4th Outfielder three games a week. Might not make everyone happy, but it will give the 4th Outfielder another 275-300 ABs they normally might not get. Each Outfielder should stay healthier.

I don't know why A.A. signed Johan Santana. Despite looking for anything I could find, nothing says this is a good idea. It appears to be a no-risk, no-cost, high reward signing that seldom works. But if you get anything, it will be something to see. Does Johan Santana have a place in the Organization when his playing career is over? That good a Pitcher might have something to teach.
uglyone - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 04:23 PM EST (#297955) #
apparently santana is as good a person and teammate as he was a pitcher. ex-teammate thole was raving about him and reyes is super excited to see him. if he can rub off any of that on stro hutch sanchez norris then the invite will have been worth it. if he manages to teach them a thing or two about his magic changeup, even better.

for the record, I think there's almost no chance of him being a good SP...but I see no reason why he couldn't be a good rp as long as he is pain-free. this isn't like control challenged guys like morrow or mcgowan trying to relieve, this is a hall of famer with impeccable command and apparently still with decent stuff aside from a serious loss of velocity. between him and martin they should be able to baffle rnough hitters in a relief role. of course I'm not sure he'd stick around if he wasn't getting a chance to start.
Parker - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 05:50 PM EST (#297956) #
I'm not sure the Jays would even keep him on the roster if he's not starting. He's due to make $2.5M while on the 25-man - that's a lot of money for a team that hasn't really shown any willingness to spend money to shore up the relief corps this offseason.
uglyone - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 05:59 PM EST (#297957) #
santana lockered next to sanchez, btw.
Mylegacy - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 06:32 PM EST (#297958) #
If we can't bring back Stieb and Halladay to mentor the little ones - we could do a lot worse than having them watch and learn from: Dickey, Buehrle and Santana.
John Northey - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 07:04 PM EST (#297959) #
Smart move to make Santana an extra coach in the spring basically.  Ideally get guys like Stieb, Halladay, and Key around to do the same.  Especially Halladay as most current players would know him and respect instantly.  I suspect the Jays are hesitant on Stieb since he had a few good sessions in 1998 and decided on a comeback.  I say what the heck, if someone can make a comeback then all the better.  So bring recent retirees back whenever possible.
eudaimon - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 08:25 PM EST (#297960) #
Jays have signed Dayan Viciedo to a minor-league deal, according to Ken Rosenthal
Mike Green - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 08:45 PM EST (#297961) #
I don't see what value Viciedo has with the modern roster construction.  He's the kind of player who would have been on Earl Weaver's bench, ready to pinch-hit a 3 run homer a few times a season.   His seasonal line against LHP would fit right into Benny Ayala's career.
eudaimon - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 08:59 PM EST (#297962) #
He's worth a look I suppose. Used to be a top prospect, and is still 25. If Pillar or Pompey face plant in spring training, he could make a good stop-gap option. And who knows, maybe we can fix him like we did Bautista and Encarnacion. He's shown a passable ability to not strike out too much, if nothing else.
scottt - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 09:04 PM EST (#297963) #
Replacement level, slugging heavy, bad OBP. Seems poor defensively.
uglyone - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 09:27 PM EST (#297964) #
he's horrible. can't even hit lefties anymore.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 10:47 PM EST (#297965) #
It no longer matters what Dayan Viciedo did before coming to the Blue Jays. Why?

1) The Jays know what's wrong and can fix him to be a good hitter again.; or,
2) He has his "come to ...???" moment and hits well enough here (EG: John Buck and others); or,
3) He does have his "Juan Francisco" moment before sucking again (as others do); or,
4) He's never needed.
dan gordon - Saturday, February 28 2015 @ 10:50 PM EST (#297966) #
Viciedo gets $2.5 million if he makes the team. I'm a bit concerned that, assuming Saunders isn't ready for opening day, they start the season with Viciedo, Pillar and Pompey as the 2nd, 3rd and 4th OF's, and then when Saunders is back, they keep Viciedo because of the contract, and send either Pillar or Pompey to AAA. If they start Viciedo in AAA, he provides nice depth in case of injury.
Oceanbound - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 02:58 AM EST (#297967) #
Given how tight their budget seems to be, potentially blowing 2.5m on a scrub like Dayan freaking Viciedo seems like a pretty dumb thing to do.
cybercavalier - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 05:51 AM EST (#297968) #
Similarly, Matt Tuiasosopo was signed to a minor league contract in 2013, I guess not to read too much into this signings.



cybercavalier - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 05:53 AM EST (#297969) #
About Saunders' injury and removal of meniscus, silicone meniscus implant is available for him ?
whiterasta80 - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 06:20 AM EST (#297970) #
The Santana signing made sense to me- he's not likely to be needed unless he can earn that 2.5 million. Plus he has a track record of both performance and attitude. Perfect storm for a high reward minor league contract.

By contrast- Viciedo has never been great, I've only ever heard questions about attitude, and he is very likely to be needed on the current roster at some point. Very good minor league signing but the price to put him in the majors is a bit steep IMO.

Of course if the budget is higher than we think (and we are ignoring Soriano and papelbon because of scouting rather than finances) then I like the move.

Doubt we "fix him" but I said that about EE too.
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 07:43 AM EST (#297971) #
Why does anyone think Viciedo will make $2.5-million from the Jays this year, especially if he spends only a couple weeks in the majors in April while Saunders is recovering from injury?  It's a minor-league deal.  This has nothing to do with the Jays payroll.  He doesn't make $2.5-million unless he plays the whole season in the majors.  And in the unlikely event that he plays the whole season in the majors, it means one of two things:  1) he's hitting surprisingly well and has beat Pillar or Smoak for a job as platoon DH or platoon outfielder;  2) the Jays have been hit by a raft of injuries to their starting lineup, which probably means that the team is out of contention anyway.

Minor-league deals are zero-risk for the Jays, just like the Johan Santana deal.  Viciedo doesn't take a roster spot and doesn't get much money unless he's in the majors for most of the year.  As Anthopoulos has said, every MLB team tries to get players on minor-league deals because it adds depth without any risk.

Viciedo is defensively weak, but he has hit 60 home runs in the majors in the past 3 seasons and he's still only 25.  He's got potential upside because he's still so young. You're rarely going to find an available hitter with a 20-HR-per-season performance record who is still only 25 and could yet improve.  As for his "make-up" issues, there's a good chance that he'll be highly motivated in 2015 because he knows he has to re-establish his value if he wants a payday in the future.   And although he hasn't hit LHP very well in the past couple of seasons, he did crush them earlier in his career, so if that ability comes back, he could be useful in a platoon role at some point.

Viciedo profiles as being similar to Juan Francisco, who was unheralded when he was acquired but proved to be valuable to the Jays for a couple months in 2014.  There's no downside to having those guys around as depth pieces in the minors or as an occasional pinch-hitters in the majors.  The most likely scenario is that he doesn't play in Toronto unless he tears up the minors, or unless they need a pinch-hitter or platoon guy for a few weeks.  And if he's only in the majors for a few weeks, he won't get anything close to $2.5-million, since it's a pro-rated salary.

Most of the Jays depth pieces this year are defense-first poor-hitting players, such as Barton, Dickerson and Carrera.  It's useful to have a power-hitting option in the minors, to supplement the defence-first guys.



BlueJayWay - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 08:00 AM EST (#297972) #
Agreed with all that, CF.
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 08:34 AM EST (#297973) #
Now I'll make a completely mischievous and provocative comparison between Viciedo and Travis Snider, purely to get people riled up:

Viciedeo and Snider were both rushed to the majors too early.  Snider is obviously much better defensively than Viciedio, so the whole analogy is somewhat spurious.  But just for the sake of argument, here are the numbers. They've both got a similar number of plate appearances in their career in the majors (between 1700 and 1800 plate appearances).  Viciedo is a year younger than Snider, but he has a higher career OPS and more HRs than Snider.  His career numbers against LHP are far better than Snider's LHP numbers, so he's got better platoon potential.  And Snider made a bit of a breakthrough in his age-26 year with much better numbers than his previous three seasons.  On the assumption that hitters are still learning to hit at age 25, could Viciedo follow the same trajectory and learn to hit better at age 26?  Unless the Jays desperately need him in the majors this season, they should leave him in the minors for a couple months and see how he does. If he learns how to get on base, and if his power numbers stay good, he could be useful in the second half of the season.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 08:37 AM EST (#297974) #
According to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, Viciedo makes $2.5 MM if he makes the Team after being paid $4.4 MM last year by Chicago. Because of when the Chicago White Sox released him, they are paying him $721,311.00 this year, so he's got money whether or not he makes the team.

For the first two to three and possibly four weeks (just to be safe), we will need a CF, a LF and a 4th OF. When Michael Saunders returns we won't need a LF. One of Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar will win the CF job. I consider Andy Dirks the next in line for a job, but I don't know how soon he'll be ready to play. That might be the main reason Dayan was signed. Of course, having a Cuban on this team come July 2nd might be useful.
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 08:42 AM EST (#297975) #
By the way, at the age of 22, Viciedo spent almost the full season at AAA in the White Sox system, and he posted an OBP of .364 while still managing to hit 20 home runs.  So he's done it in the minors.  Why hasn't he gotten on base in the majors?  There might be something that the coaches can do to encourage him to boost his OBP while still hitting for power.  That could make him a lot more valuable.
Chuck - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 08:52 AM EST (#297976) #
On a team already with too many RHB, Viciedo's career OPS split of 837/679 is not the best fit.

We previously discussed whether the RH-heavy Jays' lineup would scare off LHP. I had theorized that teams might not have enough wiggle room in their pitching schedule to load up one way or the other, with LHP or RHP, but Mike did a quick study showing that teams do seem to still be able to do so. Expect the Jays to see more RHP than usual and the roles of lefty-killers to be greatly reduced.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 09:43 AM EST (#297977) #
Dayan Viciedo (a Scott Boras client) is under team control for the next three years or he can be non-tendered if necessary, so we can see what he can be at no risk. He hits for big power, which is hard to teach. Hitting well, walking more and striking out less, on the other hand, can be taught if someone wants to learn. Checking vision and entering a weight-loss program wouldn't hurt either. I like to think the Jays' Staff can make him better, but it might be too much to ask. Does this gives us a read on what to expect from future Cuban acquisitions, or is it still too soon/too small a sample?
John Northey - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 10:38 AM EST (#297978) #
Viciedo is an interesting pick up.  He has played 3B/1B and LF in the majors.  a 122 OPS+ his rookie season (106 PA) he hasn't cracked 100 since.  If kept the Jays have his rights for 2015/16/17.  Lifetime 254/298/424 hitter with a 96 OPS+.  Entering his age 26 season.  For pie in the sky dreams EE and Bautista were 3B forced off their positions due to defensive issues who both broke through around this age.  EE was 29 for his breakout, Bautista 29.  The low OBP suggests he isn't as patient as those 2 though.  So that is a dream.  Still, not a bad guy to take a flier on.  If he can make it he should be useful.  Anyone who wanted Snider back before last year has to feel good about this one.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 10:59 AM EST (#297979) #
If you stick Viciedo in Buffalo at the start of the year, make him a first baseman or a DH and see if he learns to hit like one then you may end up with something by August or more likely next year.  CF raises the good point that Viciedo is only 25 years old and has been playing a position that stresses him defensively.  Like Encarnacion, Ortiz and several others, he might take a step forward if released from those responsibilities.  Unfortunately, he has farther to come than Encarnacion and Ortiz did with the bat. 
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 11:48 AM EST (#297980) #
Anthopoulos stated quite openly today that Viciedo could be shifted to a 1B/DH role.  I suppose that would especially make sense if the Jays decide to play Encarnacion more at 1B and less at DH.  In that scenario, Viciedo is certainly a better slugger than Barton or Valencia, and maybe better than Smoak too.  He just needs to improve his OBP and he becomes a pretty good DH.  (And like Smoak, his power numbers might improve at Rogers stadium.)
Mike Green - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 11:56 AM EST (#297981) #
The problem is that his control of the strike zone has been so poor.  The psychology is difficult.  Viciedo has hit all those home runs in the major leagues, and probably doesn't think of himself as a triple A quality ballplayer.  But that's what he has been. He is young enough to develop but it will take a fair bit of humility and patience for that to happen.  Encarnacion and Bautista would be role models for him. 
whiterasta80 - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 12:30 PM EST (#297982) #
China, everything I've read (ok they are all quoting Lott) says that Viciedo gets 2.5 million if he hits the big league roster. That's different than making a pro-rated 2.5 million. If you are right or if the Jays have the money for further moves then I'm a lot more comfortable with the move as I articulated in my post.
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 12:32 PM EST (#297983) #
Viciedo's strikeout rate is below average, but not irredeemably so.  It's not far from average, which gives me a little bit of hope that he can improve his OBP in the future.  His career K rate is 21.6 per cent, and Fangraphs defines "average" as 20 per cent.  (It defines "below average" as 22 per cent.)  It's actually his BB rate, more than his K rate, which needs more improvement. 
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 12:36 PM EST (#297984) #
"....everything I've read ... says that Viciedo gets 2.5 million if he hits the big league roster. That's different than making a pro-rated 2.5 million...."

It would have to be a pro-rated $2.5-million, because what GM would give $2.5-million to a minor-league player who plays for a week in the majors?  I've never heard of a contract that automatically triggers a $2.5-million payment if he plays a single game in the majors.  And it's a virtual guarantee that Viciedo would spend the entire year in Buffalo (or would be dumped) if he would cost the team $2.5-million for a brief major-league appearance.
JB21 - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 12:59 PM EST (#297985) #
It's certainly possible that if he makes the team it turns into a guaranteed 1 year 2.5 million dollar contract. Just as if you signed him to a MLB 1 year contract, it would be guaranteed for the season.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 01:09 PM EST (#297986) #
To go off topic, check out the TSN site and all it's departments (NHL, MLB, NBA, etc.). Now go to the Sportsnet site check out all it's department. Talk about mediocre, only the NHL site is worth anything. Just shows where all the money is going.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 02:42 PM EST (#297987) #
My interpretation was as jb21 articulated. Given that he was arguably the best bat left on the market and that there was lots of spring for injuries to occur, I assumed that a potential Mlb paycheck was the carrot that brought him here.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 02:45 PM EST (#297988) #
Richard, I've noticed that for a while now. That sort of behaviour is the exact reason why sportsnet was able to "catch" TSN in the first place. Apparently TSN learned the lesson and Sportsnet did not.
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 04:02 PM EST (#297989) #
Here are more details on the Viciedo contract, confirming that it's not a guaranteed deal.  This is from a Sportsnet article today:

The slugging Cuban, signed to a minor-league deal that pays $2.5 million if he makes the team and $20,000 a month if he reports to triple-A Buffalo, will see Grapefruit League action at left field, third base and first base......   Increasing Viciedo’s appeal for the Blue Jays is that because he doesn’t yet have five years of service time and is on a split deal, they can put him through waivers if needed and not be on the hook for the full $2.5 million hit. That minimizes the club’s risk......

(My note:  So it's a split deal, and he makes $20,000 a month in the minors.  If he makes the team, they're still not obliged to pay him the full $2.5-million because they can put him on waivers.)
dan gordon - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 05:42 PM EST (#297990) #
OK, that's a lot better. If they can use Viciedo in the majors, and then send him back down, and his salary reverts to the minor league amount, I think it's a great, no risk signing. His fielding probably means he needs to be a 1B/DH, and maybe he can still work out a few things with the bat. He will be 26 in 9 days, so he likely doesn't have a lot of development yet to come, but who knows? You want to take a shot with a guy who has big power.
China fan - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 05:48 PM EST (#297991) #
Interesting blog today by Gregor Chisholm.  He argues that the Santana and Viciedo contracts mean that the owners have authorized as much as $9-million in additional payroll for 2015 (since that's the maximum amount that the Jays would be paying if both players make the roster -- which is perhaps unlikely but has to be factored into the payroll as a possible maximum, which is apparently the way Rogers does its financial bean-counting).  Chisholm argues that the Jays should have taken that $9-million and spent it on the bullpen.  Not sure if I agree, but I can see his point.  Here's the post:

http://gregorchisholm.mlblogs.com/2015/03/01/2118255/

Richard S.S. - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 08:43 PM EST (#297992) #
I can remember A.A. has talked several times (but with who I'm blank) about a Reliever they really wanted who signed with another team. At no time, did he say the Reliever wanted more money than they were willing to pay, just that he wanted to play somewhere else. I believe that Reliever was Andrew Miller. I think they were interested in others, but not at that big an overpayment. Most were not better than some of the in-house guys.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 09:02 PM EST (#297993) #
RIP Minnie Minoso.  Minoso was a fine and unusual player, but also a great player from age 25-33.  He got a late start in significant part due to the colour bar, and his speed faded by his mid-30s.  How many players lead the league in stolen bases, caught stealing, grounding into double plays and getting hit by pitch one year, and in caught stealing, total bases and hit by pitch the next?  All the while playing great defence in left-field. I guess the closest player from my time would be Chet Lemon. 
Thomas - Sunday, March 01 2015 @ 11:47 PM EST (#297994) #
Mike Adams signed a minor league contract with the Dodgers today. He's been injured and made a limited number of appearances the past couple of seasons, but he was effective last year after a mediocre 2013 and he was a good reliever before that (which was also before he underwent shoulder surgery, it should be said). I wouldn't put the odds on him being effective particularly high, but he's probably about the 9th option for L.A.'s bullpen right now and he'd presumably have a better chance of making the big league club with Toronto.

I wonder if the Jays didn't have any interest or if they offered a similar minor league deal but he chose LA as his preferred destination.
Richard S.S. - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 04:37 AM EST (#297995) #
One last point or two Gregor Chisholm didn't mention. Players still have to want to come here, regardless of price. Alex Anthopoulos wanted high impact Relievers and most of those mentioned by Chisholm were good, but they`re not what A.A. wanted, nor possibly good enough. If that's the case, I don't blame him for not making a move.

Alex has an idea that injuries can occur in at any time in Spring Training, and in the first week of the Season. It is possible, even likely, one such injury might really change the value of his trade assets (such as Dioner Navarro). Changes are still possible/likely for this Roster.

------------------------------------------------------------

Santana really knows how to pitch, and only needs to get healthy, or healthy enough to Pitch/Start. Anything he's good enough to do, means someone else can do something else. It`s not important that he succeeds if he encourages someone to be better. I think he has more value to this Team as a Pitching Coach of some kind.

Viciedo has big power and A.A. would like him at 1B. Smoak might not make the Team. If he`s challenged he might try harder, that if he was the favorite for the job. Smoak`s controllable through the next two years, while Viciedo is under control for the next three years. It is important to maximise value, for the Team, and for any trades. Viciedo might just become good enough to play 1B.

------------------------------------------------------------

What we might not be considering is the long term implications of all these acquisitions. Big HR power is very rare lately and in massive demand. Jose Bautista will be 36 after his option is picked up and played. Decisions on any extension will be very, very hard to make. Edwin Encarnacion will be 34 at the start of any extension, if extended. Decisions on any extension will be very, very hard to do. Certain acquisitions are being given a chance to be their successors, if needed. Michael Saunders is under control for two years and will be 30 then. Can he be one, the Team needs to find out? Smoak will be 30 in two years. Can he be one, the Team needs to find out? Viciedo will be 28 in two years and 29 in three years. Can he be one, the Team needs to find out? Please note, Donaldson will be 31 in two years and 33 after four years. Martin will be 34 in two years and 37 at contract end. Any thing A.A. can do to acquire viable HR power he should do, as the success rate for acquire Bautista-talent and Encarnacion-talent is very poor. Most power is just a "one trick pony".
BlueJayWay - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 08:39 AM EST (#297996) #
To go off topic, check out the TSN site and all it's departments (NHL, MLB, NBA, etc.). Now go to the Sportsnet site check out all it's department. Talk about mediocre, only the NHL site is worth anything. Just shows where all the money is going.

Richard, I've noticed that for a while now. That sort of behaviour is the exact reason why sportsnet was able to "catch" TSN in the first place. Apparently TSN learned the lesson and Sportsnet did not.


This is the kind of thing that makes me glad the hockey ratings have been lower than Rogers expected.
uglyone - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#297998) #
I think not paying for middling veteran bullpen arms is gonna turn out real well for us.

in general, I finally love the way this team is built - lots of elite performers up top the lineup, and complete flexibility at the bottom of the lineup. what would kill this construction woild be locking in money to bottom roster guys who you are then stuck with if they crash. (to this end, I'd love to see them eat izturus' money and go with a kawasaki/tolleson (with goins/santiago in reserve) platoon instead.)

one dream scenario to share with you guys...Pillar does indeed learn how to hit righties, making him a 2-3war LF, which frees up Joey to be our fulltime 1B, and EE the dh. this would keep our offense great and give us plus D everywhere aside from SS and maybe 2B.
Mike Green - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 09:53 AM EST (#297999) #
Dreaming in March seems like a healthy thing to do.  I hold out hope that Devon Travis is healthy and wins the second base job outright in the spring. 

John Northey - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 10:54 AM EST (#298000) #
Agreeed Uglyone - just because other clubs went and paid lots for relief help doesn't suddenly make it a good idea. AA deserves some credit for sticking to his guns on value.  The pen is the most variable part of the team - predicting year to year is very hard there.  IF a high quality arm is available grab it but otherwise sit back and get as many decent arms as possible to fight it out, plus another batch in AAA to fight it out there too.  The rotation has a decent couple of kids for the 5 hole plus a vet taking over Happ's role as backup.  Plus a few others who have looked decent in the rotation before like Jenkins, Redmond, etc.  While blowing $20 mil a year on a starter or $5-10 mil on a reliver is tempting I think that money is better spent on other spots.  Taking fliers on guys like Santana and Smoak and Viciedo makes a lot of sense from a value POV.  small risk big potential reward. 
uglyone - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 12:38 PM EST (#298001) #
yeah basically my theory on team building is that its way easier to cobble together average performance for cheap in bottom roster spots than it is to find elite performance at the top of the roster.

I'm reminded of ricciardi's teams. some were pretty good, and deep, but we just couldn't match the elite performers in bos and nyy.

but if we're going to be $70m back of bos in payroll, I'm much happier to see us having superior top of the roster talent while they pay more for depth.

sure, we're much more vulnerable to key injuries, and we may end up with a hole or two even if we stay healthy.....but there's no doubt in my mind that this roster type is our best bet to contend.
whiterasta80 - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 12:46 PM EST (#298002) #
I can't believe I am saying this but if Riccardi was still GM I'd agree with the not paying for bullpen arms strategy. It still might work out with the current regime but you have to admit that it was the one thing he was better than the AA at.
China fan - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 02:38 PM EST (#298003) #
On the bullpen situation:  although earlier in the offseason I was expressing surprise and disappointment that Anthopoulos hadn't acquired a free-agent reliever, I'm starting to see the method in his madness.  And it's not just the fungibility of middle relievers, and not just the depth that the Jays have from their waiver acquisitions etc.   There are a few other factors:  1) Some of the Jays reporters are speculating that Norris might be ready for the rotation, or nearly ready.  If so, that means that Sanchez and Estrada will be in the bullpen, and it means that Sanchez and Cecil are the late-inning high-leverage relievers;  2) Although it's obviously early days, I'm optimistic that both Delabar and Jenkins will be good enough to deserve bullpen jobs;  3) I still think Navarro is likely to be traded before the end of spring training, when other teams get desperate for a catcher, and the Jays will likely get a good reliever for him.   So this means that the bullpen will probably have these good candidates:  Cecil, Sanchez, Loup, Estrada, Redmond, Delabar, Jenkins, plus whomever the Jays get for Navarro, plus whomever looks like the best candidates from the huge number of relievers that were obtained on waivers.  In that scenario, the Jays can pick the best 7 relievers from a total of 9 or 10 good candidates.  That's a reasonably good situation.
Ryan C - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 02:42 PM EST (#298004) #
you have to admit that it was the one thing he was better than the AA at

Was he though? Might be interesting to see a comparison. AA assembled a pretty decent bullpen two years ago, and Ricciardi does have BJ Ryan on his resume. All the talk this off-season about the bullpen just strikes me as little more than the standard Toronto sports-media panic.
John Northey - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 02:45 PM EST (#298005) #
If AA blew his budget on relief help - BJ Ryan #2 is all we'd be hearing about now.  Since he didn't we hear 'why didn't he blow more on the pen'?
cybercavalier - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 02:58 PM EST (#298006) #
Agreeed Uglyone - just because other clubs went and paid lots for relief help doesn't suddenly make it a good idea. AA deserves some credit for sticking to his guns on value.  The pen is the most variable part of the team

On the bullpen situation:  although earlier in the offseason I was expressing surprise and disappointment that Anthopoulos hadn't acquired a free-agent reliever, I'm starting to see the method in his madness. And it's not just the fungibility of middle relievers, and not just the depth that the Jays have from their waiver acquisitions etc.   There are a few other factors:
---------
Value assessment and acquire are AA's strength: is it because of his training in undergraduate economics and scouting ?

The trade for J.A. Happ from Houston is another example. AA got 291.0 IP and 50% winning percentage from Happ, while giving up a load of young minor leaguers who have yet to show in MLB, and Ben Francisco, who is signed as a D-backs minor leaguer in last December. Brandon Lyon and David Carpenter had not panned out as they were thought to; however, Happ was traded for Saunders who can out-contribute the combined contribution from Lyon and Carpenter.

Santana and Viciedo signings, waiver pitchers claims are another examples of AA's evaluation. Holding onto Navarro is another example.

However IMO, time is the Achilles' Heel to this strategy, how long can Jays fans and Rogers owner wait ? Or is there another bigger picture, like that baseball is to be part of Canadian identity by Jays organization more entrenching in Canada through getting teams in Canadian cities and nearby U.S. cities like Vancouver and Buffalo part of Jays farm team and other management ?
Four Seamer - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 03:30 PM EST (#298007) #

you have to admit that it was the one thing he was better than the AA at

Our respective recollections of the Kerry Ligtenberg Era vary enormously.

uglyone - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 03:36 PM EST (#298008) #
personally I find it bizarre that people are complaining about not signing middling veteran rp. what with the jsys' history there.

first off, as a prologue, we have gotten rid of the reasons our bullpen struggled last year:

Janssen 45.2ip, 3.94era, 4.14fip, 0.1war
McGowan 44.0ip, 3.35era, 4.99fip, -0.3war
Rogers 20.2ip, 6.97era, 5.41fip, -0.2war
Delabar 25.2ip, 4.91era, 5.59fip, -0.4war
Santos 21.0ip, 8.57era, 6.04fip, -0.5war

all the bad is gone save Delabar, who is still here thanks to costing nothing and still having options.


and we have more than 7 arms who pitched well as RP last year:

Cecil 53.1ip, 2.70era, 2.34fip, 1.2war
Sanchez 33.0ip, 1.09era, 2.80fip, 0.6war
Estrada 43.2ip, 2.89era, 2.81fip, 0.5war
Loup 68.2ip, 3.15era, 3.83fip, 0.5war
Redmond 75.0ip, 3.24era, 3.56fip, 0.4war
Jenkins 31.2ip, 2.56era, 3.48fip, 0.2war
Hendriks 7.0ip, 3.86era, 1.42fip, 0.2war (+ 143.1/2.45/2.65 as SP in AAA)
Rasmussen 11.1ip, 3.18era, 4.37fip, 0.0war (+ 43.0/2.72/2.57 as RP in AAA)

and last 2yrs:

Cecil 114.0ip, 2.76era, 2.63fip, 2.2war
Sanchez 33.0ip, 1.09era, 2.80fip, 0.6war
Estrada 43.2ip, 2.89era, 2.81fip, 0.5war
Loup 138ip, 2.80era, 3.58fip, 1.3war
Redmond 82.2ip, 3.27era, 3.68fip, 0.4war
Jenkins 50.0ip, 2.34era, 3.60fip, 0.3war
Hendriks 17.2ip, 5.60era, 3.42fip, 0.2war
Rasmussen 11.1ip, 3.18era, 4.37fip, 0.0war

and have a bunch of interesting arms like lopez guilmet west etc. too.

the middling vets that have been getting paid don't put up numbers better than what you see there.

that's the prologue.

the next post will deal with our actual bullpen history, and the performance of paid proven arms vs Unproven cheap arms, but might take a while to put together....
uglyone - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 03:37 PM EST (#298009) #
"Our respective recollections of the Kerry Ligtenberg Era vary enormously."

you mean the Tam-Sturtz Era?
Mike Green - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 03:57 PM EST (#298010) #
I'll see you a Tam-Sturtze and raise you a Creek.
subculture - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 04:14 PM EST (#298011) #
I agree with not over spending $$ on relievers. I do wish the jays had used it on Kang, the infielder who the pirates signed after he smoked KBO pitching. He would have been the best 2b option imo. Giving away Navarro and signing Kang would have been a good 'trade'. I think Thole still has upside that 100 abs a year wont do justice to.
John Northey - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 04:24 PM EST (#298012) #
Wasn't Kodos availalbe :)  Kang was interesting, no idea how he'll be in the majors.  most IFA are total guesswork.  Even guys from Japan are hard to guess, as the 2nd biggest payment for one was a mess (Dice-K).
subculture - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 05:31 PM EST (#298013) #
Agreed, but the Jays should be more aggressive on ifa because players like Kang:
- had no say in which team to sign with, thus Pittsburgh or the Jays dont have to pay a premium to overcome location preference, higher taxes, turfiness etc
- no draft pick surrendered

In the case of Kang, he probably would have preferred Toronto because of its large Korean community, and less competition at the infield spots. Rogers could have marketed him nationally unlike Pittsburgh as well, if he has any success.
Mylegacy - Monday, March 02 2015 @ 06:20 PM EST (#298014) #
Who'd a thought that the Jays leading HR hitter and RBI guy so far in Spring Training 2015 would be none other than Mitch Nay...er...only if because his team won the inter-squad game 1 - 0 and he hit a solo homer. Still - with a 162 game season and 34 more pre-season games he's on track to a 197 homer season! What a stud!

We in the play-offs yet?

China fan - Tuesday, March 03 2015 @ 08:18 AM EST (#298016) #
Today's the opener of the Grapefruit season, and apparently Gibbons traditionally likes to use his regular-season lineup for his first Grapefruit game (before mixing it up later).  In that case, here is today's lineup, which might be a preview of the April lineup (with the exception of Pillar instead of Saunders perhaps):

Reyes 6, Martin 2, Bautista 9, Encarnacion DH, Donaldson 5, Smoak 3, Izturis 4, Pillar 7, Pompey 8

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 03 2015 @ 08:51 AM EST (#298018) #
Shi Davidi has tweeted the pitching throwing schedule for this week.  Key elements for the prospective starters:

Mar 3-  Sanchez 1-2 innings, Estrada 1-2 innings
Mar 4- Stroman 2 innings
Mar 5- Norris 1-2 innings
Mar 6- Dickey 2 innings, Hutchison 2 innings

Buehrle will presumably go 2 innings on March 7. 

uglyone - Tuesday, March 03 2015 @ 10:37 AM EST (#298023) #
hope they're not over patient with Izturis. there is a solid chance that he's straight up our worst option for the 2b spot, and even for the bench IF spot.
China fan - Tuesday, March 03 2015 @ 12:00 PM EST (#298031) #
From 2006 to 2012, Izturis produced an OBP of .342.   Then he had one bad season and one injured season.  If he can duplicate his 2006-12 OBP this year, which doesn't seem like an impossible task, he would be a useful player in the 8th or 9th position in the lineup.  But of course I'm hoping Travis outplays him and grabs the job, leaving Izturis as a bench player.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 03 2015 @ 12:21 PM EST (#298034) #
eh.

2012 (31): 319pa, 83wrc+, +3.8uzr/150 @3B, -48.5uzr/150 @SS, +32.3uzr/150 @2b
2013 (32): 393pa, 62wrc+, -26.7uzr/150 @2b, -23.1uzr/150 @3b, -22.0uzr/150 @SS
2014 (33): 38pa, 80wrc+, +18.2uzr/150 @2b

Last 3yrs: 756pa, 72wrc+, -5.2uzr/150 @2b, -11.0uzr/150 @3b, -36.0uzr/150 @SS


Now he's 34 and coming off major injury... chances he's even bench quality are slim, imo.
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