Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The battle for second place...


We're back with more divisional preview things! This time we shift over to the NL Central, which boasts the defending World Series champions for 2017. Besides those guys, there are some other interesting teams lurking around, but we have to start with those guys. Because they are the champs. The lovable, lovable champs.

Chicago Cubs (2016: 103-58)

We Can Be Heroes

In the history of professional baseball, has there ever been a team that could potentially do no wrong to their fans than the 2017 Chicago Cubs? I mean sure, if the whole team was somehow surprisingly implicated in some bizarre freakish criminal activity, then that would obviously dim the lustre (please don't let that happen. The world is messed up enough right now). But in actual baseball terms, this is a team that could suffer the indignity of a 40 game losing streak during the season, and it would be forgiven because of the magic that happened one autumn night in Cleveland.

That's really probably not going to happen though. This is a really fun, young team with exciting players and a bucket full of talent. Losing Dexter Fowler is gonna hurt (at least the 2016 version of Fowler) as will the retirement of lovable baseball grandpa David Ross, plus there was a moronic gunslinger named Chapman who gave them some good relief innings down the stretch. But they've filled those holes with solid players: Jon Jay is not quite the caliber of Fowler but he's a solid option on a team loaded with outfielders, Wade Davis is aboard to replace Chapman (and if he's healthy... good lord), and human lottery ticket Brett Anderson is also around to add some rotation depth. There's a solid chance this isn't the juggernaut squad we saw in 2016, since they don't seem quite as deep and one of these amazing young players surely has to have a hiccup at some point. Even with those nibbling weaknesses though, they're far and above the best team in the division and they'll win it easily again.

Prediction -- 98-64, NL Central Crown

St. Louis Cardinals (2016: 86-76)

The Famous Unknowns


The Redbirds have some weird contracts. They stole Dexter Fowler away from the Cubs for a ton of cash, they're gonna pay Mike Leake over 60 million more bucks to do Mike Leake things (he's basically if Casey Janssen had been slightly better as a starter and got to face opposing pitchers) and they gave Brett Cecil a four year commitment. It's a strange payroll setup where most of the highest paid players are the complementary pieces, while the core of the team is cheap and controllable. Guys like Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Michael Wacha, Seung-hwan Oh and Greg Garcia will all earn the MLB minimum in 2017 while figuring to be prominent pieces on this squad for the upcoming season.

This was a quality team in 2016 that perhaps should have been much stronger (not "challenge the Cubs" strong, but that next level). So what went wrong... ish? Primarily it was three important pieces all simultaneously suffering down years: starting pitchers Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, and then-closer Trevor Rosenthal. Wacha, a 17 game winner in 2015, seems to have had severe difficulty limiting extra base hits last season. He allowed 15 home runs in 138 innings, which isn't great but not horrible, but he allowed 41(!) doubles in that span, which is definitely horrible. Wacha has only allowed 103 doubles in his career, meaning nearly 40 percent of them came just last season. As such, opponents slugged .459 off Wacha in 2016, compared with a career .385 mark (which includes 2016).

Rosenthal perhaps isn't as much of a concern for the 2017 Cardinals, considering that first he was more on the "good" than "elite" side of relievers (lots of free passes), and the work Seung-hwan Oh did in Rosenthal's absence/ineffectiveness is arguably more impressive than anything he has done in his career thus far anyhow. Wainwright's 2016, however, is much more of a worrisome eyebrow raiser. The lowdown on Wainwright of course has always been when he's healthy, he's a top starter in the National League. He's like Garfield on lasagna with innings, his curveball is a tiny notch below the King Kershaw Division of Curveballs, all while being completely immune to the home run ball. His weakness has always been a roughly 1 in 4 chance that he's gonna miss most of the season by injury. Well 2016 was truly the first bad season of Wainwright's MLB career: he allowed two more extra hits per nine innings than usual (and led the NL in hits allowed), also led the senior circuit in earned runs allowed, and his vaccine against home runs wore off a bit (1.0/9 instead of 0.6 in his career). Now sure, even great pitchers have bad years, but Wainwright will be 35 for most of this season (turning 36 in August) and he wouldn't be the first star starting pitcher to lose some or perhaps all effectiveness in his mid-30s for whatever reason. But I hope that isn't the case here. I love that curveball.

It's hard to predict what will happen in St. Louis for 2017. I mean, these guys just churn out quality unknown big leaguer after quality unknown big leaguer, it's hard to keep track. If Wacha and Wainwright bounce back with solid years, mixed in with that usual Cardinals magic, they'll be in the playoff hunt to the end. If everything goes completely right they could, maybe give the Cubs a scare for the title. A little scare.

Prediction -- 92-70, 2nd NL Central        *Wildcard*


Pittsburgh Pirates

Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kodos


The Ray Searage Magic took a bit of a vacation in 2016: Jeff Locke, Jon Niese and Francisco Liriano combined for about 350 very bad innings, an 14 start flyer on Ryan Vogelsong turned out to be junk mail, while young ace Gerrit Cole battled injuries and a truly dreadful August (1-3, 6.08, 1.875 WHIP). Pittsburgh was able to remain a respectable outfit during the season thanks to some unexpected offense from the likes of Matt Joyce (.866 OPS in 293 PAs) and Sean Rodriguez (18 HRs and a .510 slg% in 342 PAs. Seriously), both of whom now play for other teams.

Another important bat for this team is Korean import Jung Ho Kang, though his presence on the Buccos for the upcoming season is also questionable for a very different reason. In December, Kang crashed his car into a guardrail in his home country and was charged with a DUI, his third over there (that's... definitely not good man). While the case is being processed, Kang has been unable to obtain a travel visa to return to the United States and join his team, making it increasingly unlikely he'll be in the black and gold for opening day and perhaps significantly longer than that.

Overall, even with the potential absence of Kang (who led the 2016 Pirate regulars in OPS+ with 128) there are the makings of a solid team in here. They have a truly dynamic outfield trio of Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen, all of whom provide defense, plus speed and solid pop. McCutchen is coming off a much publicized down season at the plate in 2016 and isn't quite the defender he once was, but Pittsburgh is optimistic his bat will rebound and that a move to an outfield corner can better hide his declining glove. At least, Pittsburgh is optimistic about these things because they weren't able to trade him in the offseason, which was also much publicized. They also have a big-time outfield prospect in Austin Meadows knocking on the door, suggesting Cutch's days might be numbered at PNC Park. The big question for the Pirates though, as is the big question for most MLB teams, is starting pitching. Gerrit Cole is looking to return to Cy Young contending form, Jameson Taillon is an intriguing young pitcher (and arguably was their best starter in 2016), Ivan Nova was given a bundle of cash in the hopes he and Searage can turn his promise into something, while Tyler Glasnow, Drew Hutchison, Chad Kuhl and Juan Nicasio will battle for the final two rotation spots. If most of this goes right, they could sniff around for a wildcard spot, but there's a lot of variance here. I think all together they'll be better in 2017, but only slightly.

Prediction -- 81-81, 3rd NL Central

Cincinnati Reds (2016: 68-94)

Joey's Gang


You heard it here first. The 2017 Reds will not finish last in the National League Central. Will they actually be a good, respectable major league team? Heavens no. The starting rotation is a complete mess of struggling youngsters/retreads beyond Brandon Finnegan and the possibly injured Anthony DeSclafani, catcher Devin Mesoraco has played 39 games combined the past two seasons, Billy Hamilton is about as good a player as one can be with a career 73 OPS+ (also about as visually exciting as such a player can be), while the Homer Bailey contract is playing out about as well as Batman's first fight with Bane in The Dark Knight Rises (Bailey looks a damn lot like Christian Bale, if you're wondering about the reference).

But there are some young pieces beginning to emerge. Adam Duvall came out of Nowhere Land and instead of laying down his nowhere plans for nobody, smashed 33 homers and drove in 103, both of which led the team. His slash line was rather Joe Carter-esque (.244/.297/.498), but he grades as a positive defender in left-field and if he keeps up anything resembling that level of production I'm sure the Reds will take it. Jose Peraza is another young (22) player Cincinnati picked up from Chicago in the Todd Frazier deal. Peraza turned in a productive 72 games for the 2016 Reds, slashing .324/.352/.411 (aided by a .364 BaBIP) while swiping 21 bases. With Brandon Phillips traded (finally) to Atlanta and Zack Cozart still around, Peraza figures to be in the second base equation for Cincinnati. In the minors, outfielder Jesse Winker may emerge to take the right-field job at some point in 2017, lefty Amir Garrett is close after splitting 2016 between AA and AAA with equal measures of success, and third baseman Nick Senzel (the #2 pick of the 2016 Draft) is primed to move up quickly through the system this summer.

Also a former Blue Jays alert: this offseason the Reds signed both Drew Storen and Scott Feldman to big league deals, cornering the market on well-known-but-grotesquely-disappointing relievers who pitched for Toronto in 2016 (where's Jesse Chavez damnit?). In the hopefully-a-future-Blue-Jay category, Joey Votto still plays for Cincinnati. He's still awesome, still one of the most fun at-bats to watch in all of baseball (He. Just. Doesn't. Chase.) and the intricately unique way he approaches his craft is both admirable and amusing. Look up some Votto stories if you aren't aware.

As for this squad, they won't be good. But I think signs of hope are starting to emerge. If Duvall is for real, Cozart and Mesoraco can play something close to a full season, Eugenio Suarez rediscovers whatever magic spell he was using in the first half, and a young starter like Jake Lamb or Cody Reed can provide something, this could end up being... okay. It's a tough division and these guys are still a few years away if the kids actually turn into something. But they won't finish last!

Prediction -- 74-88, 4th NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers (2016: 73-89)

Nothing Brewin'


Look, the reality here is that Milwaukee has traded away most of their interesting players during the past little while. The Jean Segura trade looks like a disaster thanks to Professor Hindsight, Jonathan Lucroy and Tyler Thornburg and Jeremy Jeffress and Chris Carter are all gone, all while Matt Garza still exists to pitch terrible innings, earn a dozen million bucks and say dumb things. I mean, seeing what Eric Thames can do in his return from Korea should be cool (I'm so pulling for this to work out), Jonathan Villar had a really nice season out of nowhere and looks good at the WBC so far, and I guess if you're into Ryan Braun doing Ryan Braun things then you can squeeze out some enjoyment from this team. But I'm not one of those people. Maybe if they changed their jerseys back into something resembling their 80s duds... because their uniforms now are damn lame. The slanted numbers, the thin letter fonts, the bland whatever-shade-of-whatever colour they wear. It really makes no impression, which is how I also feel about this team. They won't even be bad enough to be interesting.

Prediction -- 69-93, 5th NL Central



That's it for now. I'll catch yall later in the NL East sometime... soon.



A Quick Look At The National League Central | 37 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, March 13 2017 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#339510) #
Thanks, eephus. Can someone please explain Aldemys Diaz to me?  He gets 500 PAs at double A at ages 23 and 24, and hits serviceably well (i.e. at about the level Ryan Goins hit in double A when he was 24).  He is promoted to the big leagues at 25 and is better in all phases of the offensive game than he was at double A- walks more, strikes out less and hits for much more power.  It looks like something might have clicked for him in triple A in 2015- where he went nuts for 58 PAs.  I guess we could call it the "Bautista pre-cursor" after the September that foreshadowed Bautista's coming greatness.
AWeb - Monday, March 13 2017 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#339511) #
How the Cubs lose: Arrieta pitches like he did in the second half (K's down, BB's up) without the absurd BABIP (.218). Lester returns to normal after his career year, which is good but not Cy Young contender good. And can MLB ever figure out how to exploit a guy who can't throw a pickoff? Basically if the defense is simply very good, rather than absurdly great, the Cubs will likely follow. Obviously short of major injuries, it's hard to see a team even as poor as .500 here. Especially because they get to play some real crap bottom dwellers. Would the combined Brewers/Reds rosters be a wildcard contender? There are probably some prospects who will surprise somewhere there, but if Pittsburgh and St. Louis are both good, the bottom teams could both lose 95 games.

Oh, and this is the division the Jays match up against this year in interleague, so these teams "matter" more to the Jays. Pretty neutral division overall, although my inner 80s Jays fan assumes the Brewers will beat the Jays no matter what.

scottt - Monday, March 13 2017 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#339517) #
I once had to configure some computer hardware whose secret admin password was "Cubswin".
dan gordon - Monday, March 13 2017 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#339525) #
Alemdys Diaz was amazing in April. From April 28th to the end of the season, he only hit .269, which is probably a reasonable approximation of his true ability. His minor league work in 2014 and 2015 doesn't seem to presage a guy who would hit .270 with 20 HR potential in mlb. On the other hand, in Cuba, at age 20, he had a very strong season, before missing 2 full years. It may have taken him a couple of years to regain his form and get adjusted to North American pro ball. Interestingly, the Cardinals designated him for assignment in July 2015 and nobody wanted him. Sometimes you get lucky - see Encarnacion, Edward.
Gerry - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#339561) #
I will be interested to see what Drew Hutchison can do this year. There is some talk that there are a few top notch pitching coaches out there who can work wonders with pitchers who haven't lived up to expectations. Don Cooper is one and Ray Searage is another. If Searage can get Drew to be a regular, average to above average starter then I will be impressed. It might also raise questions for the many very average pitching coaches in MLB.
bpoz - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#339567) #
Good point Gerry. Mel Queen sure helped R Halladay.

Pitchers always do better in Oakland as well. I always figured that it was that park. The foul territory is bigger than other parks.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#339568) #
but with the somewhat surprising rebound/breakthrough successes of names like estrada happ liriano biagni hendriks osuna grilli benoit....do the jays start being considered part of the good side of that equation?
Parker - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#339571) #
but with the somewhat surprising rebound/breakthrough successes of names like estrada happ liriano biagni hendriks osuna grilli benoit....do the jays start being considered part of the good side of that equation?

Marco Estrada was a solid pitcher for the Brewers before he came to Toronto. He hit a typical peak. Ray Searage turned Happ into a great pitcher after he left the Jays, and the same pitching coaches were in place before and after he came back. Liriano had been a great pitcher for ten years before he came to the Jays, and he had two great seasons with the Pirates before his half-season of struggles. Biagini was a solid relief prospect that ran out of options with one of the most-respected organizations in baseball. Hendriks was good for a year, but where is he now? I'll give you Osuna.

Grilli and Benoit have long track records of success and you're saying it's the Blue Jays that made them great? Why wasn't Storen great for the Jays? Why wasn't Matt Bush? Why wasn't Wang? Why wasn't Jeffress? Cherry-picking doesn't prove success. It just proves you can pick the guys who were good, and ignore the guys who weren't. Why are you still even doing this type of "analysis"? Why haven't you learned anything in the last six years?
scottt - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#339575) #
Biagini was a solid relief prospect that ran out of options with one of the most-respected organizations in baseball.

Not at all.

Biagini was stolen from the Giants who have one of the worst farm system in baseball. It's almost completely barren which isn't exactly surprising since they've been in the playoff pictures constantly in the last decade. In 2015, their top prospect was rated B+ and Biagini wasn't in their top 20.

Biagini was drafted out of University in the 26th round. He went through TJ surgery in college which didn't help him.

He started in A ball. Didn't do well. Got demoted to A- where he was about average. He spent the next year in A ball and again was pretty average. Was promoted to A+ the next year and, you guessed it, didn't stand out. However, in his 4th year in the minor in AA, he managed an ERA of 2.42. He stayed mostly under the radar however as his peripherals didn't look drastically different, not that they are bad or anything.


uglyone - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#339577) #
"Marco Estrada was a solid pitcher for the Brewers before he came to Toronto. He hit a typical peak."

Marco was a mediocre part time SP for a couple years and was coming off a disaster year, and then came to the Jays and put up by far his 2 best seasons, becoming one of baseball's ERA leaders in the process.

"Ray Searage turned Happ into a great pitcher after he left the Jays, and the same pitching coaches were in place before and after he came back."

Happ just had the best year of his career as a Jay at age 34.

"Liriano had been a great pitcher for ten years before he came to the Jays, and he had two great seasons with the Pirates before his half-season of struggles."

Liriano was in the midst of a disaster year so bad that the Pirates gave away 2 decent prospects to get rid of his contract, and he instantly turned it around with the jays.

"Biagini was a solid relief prospect that ran out of options with one of the most-respected organizations in baseball."

Biagini was a mediocre 25yr old AA SP and instantly became a very good MLB RP with the jays.


"Hendriks was good for a year, but where is he now?"

Hendirks was a mediocre 25yr old milb SP and isantly became a very good MLB RP with the Jays, then turned into a pumpkin when he left.

"Grilli and Benoit have long track records of success and you're saying it's the Blue Jays that made them great?"

Grilli and Benoit were scrap heap pickups having awful years that instantly turned it around with the jays.


"Why wasn't Storen great for the Jays? Why wasn't Matt Bush? Why wasn't Wang? Why wasn't Jeffress? Cherry-picking doesn't prove success. It just proves you can pick the guys who were good, and ignore the guys who weren't. Why are you still even doing this type of "analysis"? Why haven't you learned anything in the last six years?"


Are you suggesting that there are teams out there that magically improve every single pitcher that comes into their orgnaization without fail?
Gerry - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#339578) #
In my opinion there are certain pitching coaches who have had more success with reclamation projects than their competition.

I do not put Pete Walker in the overachieving class. Neither do I put him in the underachievers. He is solidly in the middle.
jerjapan - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#339580) #
Liam Hendricks was excellent last year, outside of a disastrous start to the year that landed him on the DL.  an fWAR of 1.3 out of the pen nearly matched what he did as a Jay, and ZIPS sees him matching that number again this year.  Put him down as one of Walker's successes and likely the worst trade of the new FO. 
Parker - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#339581) #
Are you suggesting that there are teams out there that magically improve every single pitcher that comes into their orgnaization without fail?

No, I am not.

It seems like you are, though, at least when it comes to the Jays.
Parker - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#339584) #
It's almost completely barren which isn't exactly surprising since they've been in the playoff pictures constantly in the last decade.

That's... an interesting comment. Does it take more than a decade to develop players?
uglyone - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#339585) #
how do you figure?

I listed what looks to me like a pretty impressive last few years of turning a good amount of iffy pitching into quality mlb contributors.

a list which seems comparable at first glance to teams that get plenty of credit for being pitching clinics.

acknowledging that the same caveats apply to this actually being evidence of anything as it would to other teams it's used for.
Parker - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#339588) #
That's a fancy list you put together when you only look at the Blue Jays.

When you look at other teams in comparison (which you seem like you claim to do when you compare them "to teams that get plenty of credit for being pitching clinics") the Jays hit on some and they miss on most - like almost every other team in the Majors.

This might be part of the reason you think the Jays are the best team in baseball - when you choose to compare them to other teams, you pull out whatever metrics you can find that make the Jays look better. The rest of the time, you don't even look anywhere else, except to point out any Jays prospects who've failed with other teams. It's really weird how your Blue Jays haven't won four of the last five World Series titles - how could they possibly fail based on your analysis?
uglyone - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#339598) #
I don't think you are looking at that list objectively, and don't have the knowledge to compare it to other teams accurately.

But feel free to share some more impressive comparables over the last few years.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 14 2017 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#339599) #
And do you think if you keep saying that i overrated this jays teams over and over again the back to back ALCS will just up and dissappear?

you've been badly, badly wrong about how good this jays roster is. just admit it and move on instead of continually lashing out in petulant ignorance.
scottt - Wednesday, March 15 2017 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#339605) #
I wouldn't say Hendriks was a bad trade.  Looking back, the Jays were trying to add depth to the rotation in case a 6th and 7th starter were needed. It didn't happen and Hutch was traded for Loriano mostly to deal with Sanchez's inning count. Then they swapped Chavez for Bolsinger whom they could send down to Buffalo while acquiring Fieldman to help in the pen. Except Fieldman was terrible.

In truth, the Jays have done better by acquiring struggling relievers like Benoit and Grilli than with the ones having a great season like Fieldman and Mark Lowe.  That's the game of baseball.

jerjapan - Wednesday, March 15 2017 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#339615) #
It's not a deal that had no logic behind it .... but it was certainly the worst deal of this current front office's regime.  I thought the fetishization of depth starting last year was odd at the time, and in retrospect, clearly not needed.  Of course, if we didn't have a healthy starting rotation last year, maybe the deal works, but it was a cautious approach that cost 4 million dollars, hurt the 2016 team and cost us a future asset.

Hendricks was good last year, is at the league minimum this year and is under team control for 3 more years.  Bolsinger looks to be a replacement level arm. 



scottt - Wednesday, March 15 2017 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#339627) #
Sure, in hindsight the Hendriks deal wasn't great, but still in hindsight, think about trading Syndergaard, D'arnaud and Becerra for 4 years of league average pitching (ERA+ 100). Becerra is now 22 and was hitting .312 in A+ last year.  I understand the logic behind that deal, but that 40M spent on Dickey would have done the job just as well on the free agency market. Instead the Jays lost 3 future assets.
jerjapan - Wednesday, March 15 2017 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#339632) #
I thought the Hendricks deal was bad prior to hindsight - hindsight just makes it appear worse.

I also thought the Dickey deal was bad at the time, and if you argue from a utilitarian POV, definitively a worse move. It's not quite as bad as some people think it is ... he gave us over 800 IPs, 6.4 fWAR, at the very reasonable cost of around $40 million dollars ... I think that would have been hard to duplicate on the FA market.  His run of health was significant, and to be expected with a knuckler.  It's weird to say that a late-career vet like Dickey had upside when we got him, but he did - if he'd had even one season comparable to his 2012, the conversation changes.

But Thor is a generational talent.  D'arnaud looks to have already peaked due to injuries, but he's having a nice, and healthy, spring - if either he or Becerra (the 12th ranked Mets prospect by MLB) contribute going forward a bad deal gets even worse ...

To me though, you have to look at all trades in context.  Our current FO is very cautious, so their chances of a massive bust of a deal are much smaller.  But they also haven't acquired a generational talent like JD.  You win some, you lose some ...

AA had a history of the blockbuster, and in retrospect, those moves have to be viewed as a net fail - but it's not a landslide.  the best player the Marlins got turned out to be throw-in Anthony Desclafani, who they thought so highly of they traded before he emerged.

The Reyes - Tulo deal could swing either way, depending on Hoffman.

My least favourite AA blockbuster was actually the Price move - I just didn't think we needed him, or that we could get him to resign.  We'd still have our 2015 run without the guy, but we'd have an easy top ten farm right now without the move.  


Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 15 2017 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#339634) #
There's a lot of revisionist history going on this site and not to the better. A.A.'s Miami deal does not happen if Beeston doesn't veto a contract A.A. signed (the data is there if you look for it). Miami was basically a fire sale/salary dump he fell into. No veto, no deal. Does New York still happen? I don't know. But once Miami does, New York follows. Josh Johnson was a pumpkin and killed that season. If he's 80% of what he was in Miami, the Jays are in the postseason in 2013. I think it's that simple.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 15 2017 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#339637) #
the dickey trade will always be bad.

but then look at the flipside, and the mets haven't been better than the jays even with that huge steal.
jerjapan - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#339639) #
There's a lot of revisionist history going on this site and not to the better.

Richard, you may think you're being clear with this statement, but I can't tell what you are talking about?
bpoz - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#339640) #
The off season is a great time to talk about history.

jerapan, your point about AA having a history of blockbusters is correct.

Richard's point about the Marlin trade starting a "win now" now commitment is also correct. This led to the Dickey acquisition.

The underachieving 2013 and 2014 teams led to the departure of Beeston and the demotion of AA to Shapiro's 2nd in command, if AA had accepted.

I think it is quite obvious that for a GM to keep his job he has to please ownership. He has to stick to the budget guidelines and win enough to generate acceptable revenue.
After 2013 and 2014 the writing was on the wall for AA when this did not happen.

The Dombrowski and Shapiro talk started after 2014. Ownership was wonderful. They increased the budget in 2013 which led to expectations of higher revenues.

The budget/revenue equation seems very pleasing to ownership now. I am very happy that Shapiro is not asking for more money. Or at least modest increases.

Does anyone think that the Donaldson trade happens without the prior "win now" budget?
pubster - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#339643) #
"After 2013 and 2014 the writing was on the wall for AA when this did not happen."

Wasn't AA offered an increase in pay to remain GM?
bpoz - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#339650) #
Thanks for the response pubster, you are correct. The Jays and Shapiro wanted him to stay. He is a very bright baseball man.

But IMO there was some writing on the wall. At least the way AA read it. Again IMO. He did not want to be 2nd banana. With Beeston he had free rein, with Shapiro not so.

I really think that he decided to move on before the July 31 trade deadline. So he used prospect capital to get D Price and Tulo. This probably hurt the Jays future but luckily the July 31, 2015 team was much stronger and managed to succeed.
jerjapan - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#339652) #
He was offered more money, but it was clearly for a position with less autonomy.  I think you are right Bpoz, the writing was on the wall in terms of the team searching for a president. 
bpoz - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#339653) #
Thanks for the response jerjapan.

How about the Donaldson trade. 83-79 record for 2014 is close enough to hope for a playoff spot in 2015. So getting a very good player still arb eligible makes a lot of sense. You can afford to pay him but you had to give up a lot of talent.


pubster - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#339654) #
"I really think that he decided to move on before the July 31 trade deadline. So he used prospect capital to get D Price and Tulo."

I think that's probably true.

However, I don't think AA left because he wanted a free reign (as he has less free reign in LA). I think he left because relationships soured and wanted to be around a new group of people.
jerjapan - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#339655) #
I actually think you can still make the Donaldson deal without going 'all-in' to field a winner Bpoz.  AA was so opportunistic - he had three MLB-ready / near ready pieces in Lawrie, Nolin and Graveman who all seemed like a good fit for the A's spacious park, one excellent but far-off prospect in Barretto, and an A's team that thought they were maybe selling high-ish on JD.  I'd make that trade regardless of where a team is on the win curve, and it remains AA's signature accomplishment IMO, ahead of dumping the Wells contract and the Bautista extension. 

The Tulo deal is the hardest one to evaluate - Price was a simple rental, but Tulo is a leader and a legit upgrade on Reyes - AA sensed that Reyes' deal was a sunk cost and got out from under it just in time.  Was the cost too high in Hoffman?  Reyes had nearly $60 million left on his deal, while Tulo had $108 million remaining when acquired and is under contract till 2020, with an $11 million option in 2021.  The guy is only 32 - I could see that deal being far better value than the Reyes deal, and well worth the contract.

Hoffman is the Rockies #2 prospect per MLB, while Castro and Jesus Tinoco have been utter busts thus far in Colarado.  Man, if I was a pitching prospect, I would hope to never end up a Rocky.   

Not sure I agree that AA had 'nothing to lose' and therefore made those deadline deals though - he was just an aggressive GM.  I do agree Pubster that it was a soured relationship as much as anything that lead to AA leaving.  I certainly can't see his aggressiveness fitting in well with the current, more conservative front office. 
bpoz - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#339656) #
When do we, anyone of us that is, think AA made his decision to leave.

For me this is hard to figure out. Beeston was taking heat from ownership I believe because of the teams performance in 2013 and 2014. AA has to share this consequence I believe. They had a good partnership going.

Does anyone remember... Was Beeston asked to fire AA?
bpoz - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#339660) #
Regarding Donaldson I feel the same way. The win curve does not matter to me either.
Because he was very cheap for 2015 and 2016. He gets relatively expensive in 2017 & 18. Not necessarily for us because we are not a poor team and we are winning so far.

But say TB or Minnesota. Both should have the talent to give Oakland to make the deal. TB had a good enough roster in 2015 & 2016 to win and his salary would not be a huge % of their budget.
Minnesota did not have enough talent but could increase budget because they have a good fan base. And use prospects to add more ML talent. The AL Central is not a strong division.
jerjapan - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#339661) #
No I don't think so?  Beeston was gone and Shapiro was negotiating with AA ....

I do recall reading comments and articles in September that year about the possibility of AA leaving, but in the rush of that run to the postseason, I certainly refused to believe it was possible.  I assume AA was thinking about moving on after Shapiro came in but was focused on the team more than making a decision - but that's just a guess. 

Dewey - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#339671) #
it was a soured relationship as much as anything that lead to AA leaving

Hey, jerjapan, come on! I count on you to pay attention. Get this stuff right. But this is the second time recently that you’ve used “lead”, the name for a metal, as the past tense of the verb “to lead”. The word you want here is “led”.

We’re getting a tad sloppy at da Box again. It’s a slippery slope, lads. Eternal vigilance. Hell, even weekly vigilance.
jerjapan - Thursday, March 16 2017 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#339677) #
I do know better on this one Dewey, and honestly, I believe you've pointed this particular error out to me before.

Slowly, but surely, you have been influencing my spelling ... a couple of times I've been about to talk about a 'player's roll' on the team when I've heard your voice reminding me that a roll belongs in a bakery.  For some reason, when I imagine your voice, it sounds vaguely like Gandalf ...

There's a reason my favourite ever textbook to cite with language learners is entitled 'English is Stupid' ....

A Quick Look At The National League Central | 37 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.