Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Baseball America's Top 30 Blue Jays Prospects For 2017

Baseball America's Top 30 Blue Jays Prospects For 2017

The parent club is too depressing to watch so let's look at the Top 30 prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays system according to Baseball America.

Baseball America ranks 2016 first-round pick T.J. Zeuch as the #8 prospect in the Blue Jays system.

2016 second-round pick J.B. Woodman finds himself right in the middle of the Blue Jays Top 30 prospects list according to Baseball America.

In past years, this thread came before the season as I would order the book through Baseball America and then Amazon or Indigo. Due to a weak loonie and cost, I decided to stop doing that after BA decided to finally release an e-book version last year, which came out after I ordered the hard copy of course. Deciding I won't get fooled again, I waited for BA to release the electronic version which was not available until April 18 so that's why this thread was delayed. I think the delayed release date is ridiculous but that's what you get for being fiscally and environmentally responsible. Without further ado...

Here is how Baseball America grades each player, based on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale:

75-80 - Franchise player/number one starter
65-70 - Perennial All-Star/number two starter
60 - Occasional All-Star/number two-three starter/game's best closer
55 - First division regular/number three-four starter/elite closer
50 - Number four starter/elite set-up reliever
45 - Second division regular/platoon/set-up reliever
40 - Reserve player/swingman/long reliever

Risk factors for each player are as follows:

Safe - player is ready to contribute in the majors this season and has shown a realistic ceiling
Low - player is likely to reach his ceiling and become a big leaguer barring injury
Medium - player still has some tools to sharpen for major league caliber skills but is fairly polished
High - player is a first-year draft pick, has plenty of projection involved or has a worrisome injury history
Extreme - teenager in rookie ball, a player with a significant history of injuries or struggles with a key skill (pitcher's control or hitter's strikeout rate) that is a significant barrier to reaching his potential

The Blue Jays have the 20th best system in MLB according to BA, up four spots from 2016.

No.#	Player	Position	Grade	Risk	2016 Rank
1	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3B	65	High	3
2	Anthony Alford	OF	60	High	1
3	Lourdes Gourriel Jr.	IF/OF	55	High	NR
4	Sean Reid-Foley	RHP	55	High	5
5	Conner Greene	RHP	55	High	2
6	Richard Urena	SS	55	High	4
7	Rowdy Tellez	1B	55	High	7
8	T.J. Zeuch	RHP	55	High	NR
9	Bo Bichette	2B/SS	55	Extreme	NR
10	Jon Harris	RHP	50	High	6
11	Justin Maese	RHP	50	High	9
12	Max Pentecost	C/1B	55	Extreme	8
13	Reese McGuire	C	45	Medium	NR
14	Harold Ramirez	OF	50	High	NR
15	J.B. Woodman	OF	50	High	NR
16	Ryan Borucki	LHP	50	Extreme	14
17	Francisco Rios	RHP	45	High	NR
18	Angel Perdomo	LHP	50	Extreme	26
19	Joshua Palacios	OF	45	High	NR
20	Patrick Murphy	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
21	Zach Jackson	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
22	Danny Jansen	C	45	High	22
23	Danny Barnes	RHP	40	Medium	NR
24	Jordan Romano	RHP	45	High	NR
25	Cavan Biggio	2B	45	High	NR
26	Osman Gutierrez	RHP	50	Extreme	NR
27	Yeltsin Gudino	SS	45	Extreme	NR
28	Yennsy Diaz	RHP	45	Extreme	19
29	Matt Dermody	LHP	40	Medium	NR
30	Travis Hosterman	LHP	45	Extreme	NR

The Prospect Handbook also contains Top 50 MLB prospect lists from five BA writers. Their rankings of where the Blue Jays top prospects rank among their peers are in parentheses.

Ben Badler - Guerrero (38), Gourriel (50)
J.J. Cooper - Guerrero (24)
Matt Eddy - Guerrero (28), Reid-Foley (49)
John Manuel - Guerrero (11)
Kyle Glaser - Guerrero (43)

There are 17 new names on this year's top 30 list and here is how it breaks down.

7 players 2016 draft (Zeuch, Bichette, Woodman, Palacios, Jackson, Biggio and Hosterman)
4 players drafted before 2016 (Murphy, Barnes, Romano and Dermody)
4 International free-agent signings (Gourriel, Rios, Gutierrez and Gudino)
2 players acquired by trade (McGuire and Ramirez)

Players from the 2016 Top 30 list who missed the cut in 2017. No parentheses next to the player's name means he is still in the Blue Jays organization.

10. D.J. Davis
11. Reggie Pruitt
12. Clinton Hollon (Released)
13. Roemon Fields
15. Jose Espada
17. Chad Girodo
18. Hansel Rodriguez (Traded to Padres)
20. Lupe Chavez (Traded to Astros)
21. Tom Robson
23. Mitch Nay
24. Matt Dean
25. Carl Wise
27. Andy Burns (Korea)
28. Dwight Smith Jr.
29. Tyler Burden (Retired?)
30. Evan Smith (Released)

The biggest riser on the list is Perdomo, who jumped from 26 to 18. Diaz fell the farthest from last year as he dropped from 19 to 28.

Baseball America says Cavan Biggio has the best strike zone discipline in the Blue Jays system.

Best Tools - Hitting/Running/Fielding

Bichette - Best hitter for average.
Guerrero - Best power hitter.
Biggio - Best strike zone discipline.
Fields - Fastest baserunner.
Alford - Best athlete.
Javier Hernandez - Best defensive catcher.
Urena - Best defensive infielder/infield arm.
Pruitt - Best defensive outfielder/arm.

Zach Jackson throws the best curveball among Blue Jays prospects according to Baseball America.

Best Tools - Pitching

Greene - Best fastball.
Reid-Foley - Best slider.
Jackson - Best curve.
Borucki - Best changeup/control.

Top Rookie - Gourriel

Breakout Prospect - Murphy

Sleeper - Bradley Jones

Projected 2020 Lineup

C - McGuire
1B - Tellez
2B - Devon Travis
3B - Josh Donaldson
SS - Urena
LF - Bichette
CF - Alford
RF - Guerrero
DH - Troy Tulowitzki
#1 SP - Aaron Sanchez
#2 SP - Marcus Stroman
#3 SP - Reid-Foley
#4 SP - Greene
#5 SP - Zeuch
CL - Roberto Osuna

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Friday, April 21 2017 @ 07:02 AM EDT.

Baseball America's Top 30 Blue Jays Prospects For 2017 | 36 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

rpriske - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#340936) #

Does anyone actually think Donaldson will be a Blue Jay in 2020?

The question right now is whether he will be a Blue Jay in 2018.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#340937) #

I know it's early but BA just published it's first full first round mock draft yesterday. They have Jays selecting two college players:

22- Jake Burger, 3b, Missouri State

28- Wil Crowe ,rhp, South Carolina

BlueJayWay - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#340938) #

I'd be pretty surprised if Donaldson were a Blue Jay in 2020.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#340939) #

So would I. In fact, I would be surprised if he is a BJ in 2018.

Nigel - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#340940) #

I think Donaldson will be here in 2018, 2020 not so much. I think you are overestimating Rogers' appetite for rebuilds. Thanks for posting this. BA seems higher on Gurriel than most prospect sources.

SK in NJ - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#340941) #

As long as Rogers owns the team, I think it's about 70/30, or maybe 80/20, that Donaldson remains a Jay until at least the trade deadline of 2018. Trading him this trade deadline, while logical and probably the right thing to do if they are out of it, would mean conceding 2018 (and likely the few years after that). I think Shapiro would be OK with that, but Rogers doesn't strike me as the owners who would be OK with that after two straight playoff runs. BA is definitely reaching when they assume Donaldson will still be here in 2020.

As far as the farm system, the upcoming draft + possibly a trade deadline haul if they choose to go that route, should put the Jays in a much greater position long-term. The team needs more prospects/young players in the Guerrero and possibly Bichette (if he keeps this up) level. The depth is getting better but they need those difference making talents. I'm interested to see who and how they draft in June this year.

BlueJayWay - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#340942) #

So would I. In fact, I would be surprised if he is a BJ in 2018.

Yeah it's getting that point, potentially. Actually I wouldn't be all that surprised if he were here in 2018 (Rogers might decide to do a retool rather than a rebuild and try to compete next year) but I don't see him here beyond that.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#340943) #

Rogers hired Shapiro to run the baseball operation. Hopefully, they will allow him to do that. I understand where the doubts are coming from. I think they were prepared for a pivot when they agreed to hire Shapiro in June of 2015 but then the unexpected happened. It could be that two playoff seasons has changed the thinking but at some point they have to have a mini rebuild at least. I don't think trading Donaldson signifies a full rebuild as that is not really necessary. I think it is the right move strategically, especially if there is little chance of extending him.

hypobole - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#340944) #

I never believed Rogers would allow a proper rebuild, but they also own a sizable share of MLSE and are seeing first-hand what a smart tank job can accomplish. In fact baseball actually makes it easier in a way, since there is no lottery.

Nigel - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#340945) #

The Leafs and Jays are an entirely different marketing proposition in Toronto. More importantly, the Jays are the primary ratings draw almost every night for 4 months (after the hockey playoffs finish) on the Rogers cable sports network. The Jays were acquired for that reason - to give the network content in the summer. I don't see a tank job in the future.

Nigel - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#340946) #

Of course, when you look at the list above its hard to see that group making a material impact at the MLB level before 2019 at the earliest and maybe 2020 is more realistic (some will reach before then but I'm talking about real impact). Which raises the question of how they will bridge the team until then. I guess more Pearce type signings.

whiterasta80 - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#340948) #

I always get a little riled up when I see that scoring system.

The divisions of pitching just seem to be completely out of synch with those of the hitters.

Plus, how does one even distinguish between elite setup reliever and elite closer at this point?

lexomatic - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#340950) #

Trading Donaldson this year doesn't necessarily concede next year - it depends who else is traded. He has the most value, and could get more than all of the rentals combined.
It makes the most sense to clean house though if the team is out of it. I expect the team to rebound enough to have some mid-way moves that are more lottery tickets or filler.
Barnes continues to perform and to get disrespected. Though to be fair, he's old, and won't be a star. But his value isn't that low.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#340951) #

If there is not much starting pitching available at deadline, Estrada could net a good return but of course, Donaldson would net a much better one. And I agree that it is not necessarily waving the white flag for 2018 and 19 if an astute deal can be made. What needs to be ascertained also, is if there is any real chance of extending him. Who knows, if things don't improve he may even request a trade but if so, let's hope it is not done publicly.

No comments on the projected draft picks. The names don't mean much at this point, but the fact that it is believed the Jays will go for 2 college players might be significant?

hypobole - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#340952) #

"More importantly, the Jays are the primary ratings draw almost every night for 4 months (after the hockey playoffs finish) on the Rogers cable sports network."

If this season doesn't get a whole lot better quickly, what kind of ratings is a team 15-20 games under .500 going to draw? And is next year going to be better? Both Estrada and Liriano are gone, with no in-house replacements in sight, Martin and Tulo a year older plus more holes all over the roster.

Nigel - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#340953) #

I admit to working solely off memory with this response, which isn't what it used to be. I believe that in 2010-14, which were some fairly lean teams but not terrible, the Jays drew around 350k-400K households per game. That jumped closer to 1 million throughout chunks of last season and obviously far higher late in the season and playoffs. 400k households is still a huge number for Rogers on a midweek night in July. There really isn't anything comparable. That is why I think they will spend to avoid a tank job. The team doesn't need to be good to pull viewers, just not terrible.

hypobole - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#340954) #

But when have the Jays been terrible since the formative years? Since 1981 we've only been "terrible" twice, 1995 and 2004. I would argue the numerous years of mediocrity drove more people away than if we had cycled boom and bust.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#340955) #

Yes, I agree that it was numerous years of mediocrity that kept fans away. If a bust year is to happen, then I think it behooves management and ownership to take full advantage of it.

John Northey - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#340956) #

I find it interesting how many feel Donaldson is doomed to disappear. I see it as a mix for Donaldson.

1) Jays financials - is Rogers selling the team, and if so do the new guys want a team with stars or a cheap one?

2) Long term outlook - is Donaldson the type who ages well or not? Not sure offhand and don't feel like doing the research at the moment.

3) Replacements - When will Vlad be ready? Could he be ready by 2019? Will he stick at 3B?

4) Payroll - only $54 mil committed for 2019 ($20 each to Martin & Tulo, $12 to Morales, $250k buyout for Smoak, $2 mil to Gurriel) so the space exists to pay for him ($30 mil is the starting point I'd think) but do the Jays feel he is worth it for 5+ years?

Myself, I'd be talking with his agent right now about a 5 year $150 mil deal starting in 2018, going to 2022 (his age 32-36 seasons). Unless finances are different in the majors than I think they are I'd start at $25 mil per ($125 mil over 5) and stop at $30 ($150) with years 6 & 7 being at best options that he can vest by being healthy but I'd try to avoid that. 3-4 WAR a year and that deal is a good one for the Jays. Given how few have $30+ mil a year deals so far (only 5 ever, all active) I'd think he would go for it. I expect $30 to be the new $20 within a few years for MLB so might as well lock up the best you got now.

John Northey - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#340957) #

Yeah, I don't see a tanking coming. So far so bad but a full tank would drive too many viewers away and cost Rogers a lot in ad revenue. I expect instead in June or July to see Smoak, Pearce, Estrada, Liriano as being on the block and maybe traded to make room for hot shot kids like Tellez, Alford, Gourriel, Reid-Foley, Greene. Estrada & Liriano on the block due to free agent status coming. Happ if someone makes a great offer. Other free agents are Grilli, Howell, Barney, and Saltalamacchia. None would get much in trade but obviously would be made available for a half decent price (B level prospect).

That way the Jays only lose some of this season and not 2018 and beyond. If any kids who come up light the world on fire then boom you get the viewers back quick. Sign Donaldson to a long term deal at the same time and you'd show fans the Jays are not quitting.

bpoz - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#340958) #

I don't know how we can improve this team this year. The expensive players are Bautista, Donaldson, Tulo and Martin. If they don't produce then we lose a lot of games. There is a lot of time left for them to get better.
Morales, Pearce and Smoak are not breaking the bank. They should do ok over a full season.
Travis and Pillar are cheap. If healthy they are good value. Everyone else is a 4th OF and utility IF type. There is no shortage of that in the majors or minors.

Our strength is our rotation and Osuna. All great value. Quite cheap actually IMO. They are a very strong contender quality group.
AA flooded the system with pitching. Many have started the year in AA. By the end of the season they will be closer to ML readiness, I expect. I hope so anyway.

If we end up being a 75-83 win team, 2018 becomes a year with expectations of 75-86 wins. Eternal optimists and marketing could produce higher expectations for 2018.

Payroll can increase a little if Bautista and Donaldson are not here. We save their salaries and can get more Pearce and Morales types on 1-3 year contracts. Happ is still around unless traded. We don't get Estrada cheap.

I believe that this FO is wise. They understand depth and $ value. We have 3 set up relievers in the pen earning $3 mil. By seasons end we will know if they produced more or less value. Also how they compare to the more expensive FA set up relievers.

Nigel - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#340959) #

hyperbole - I agree. I think fans can handle boom and bust cycles. However, I haven't seen any indication that Rogers agrees with that. There hasn't been a rebuild during their ownership and their payroll spending has always supported fielding at least a modestly competitive team without "going for it".

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#340960) #

I don't believe the FO will promote any kids prematurely whether there is a sell off or not. A looming decision is required for 2 players...Dwight Smith and Dalton Pompey, more so for the former as he can become a 6 year FA. There are others on whom 40 man decisions need to be made, so we might see them toward the end of season as well assuming the team is not in playoff contention. Top prospects who do not need to be placed on the 40 man will remain in the minors imo. Some of this will no d0ubt change as the season progresses, Smith being the only urgent case I think.

China fan - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#340961) #

"....If a bust year is to happen, then I think it behooves management and ownership to take full advantage of it...."

By the same logic, when a boom year happens (or two of them), it would behoove management and ownership to take full advantage of it with a greatly increased payroll and a determined push for greatness, instead of a fence-sitting cautiousness. Why is the "bust" somehow a bigger opportunity than the boom?

Some fans seem almost disappointed by the boom years, since it has delayed the tear-down and the protracted lengthy rebuild that this group of fans has been itching for. They wanted a tear-down in 2015 and were terribly disappointed that the Jays actually were one of the top four teams in baseball by the end of the playoffs. And then, tragically, it happened again in 2016.

I can sense the gleefulness in their sudden prediction that the Jays must now trade their top superstar. (Why? Apparently to save money because his salary will rise. But why do we assume that the owners have no money after two boom years? No answer to that.)

Here's the problem. It's easy to burn a team into ashes, but there's no guarantee that a phoenix will emerge from the ashes. Instead you could just end up with many years of smouldering smoky cinders.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#340963) #

Just to set the record straight, I have never advocated a complete tear down now or previously. I do see trading JD as a strategically smart move if a good return can be had. And then there is the issue of extension. It has to be settled imo while he has value, not at 2018 trade deadline, when if not contending, he is a rental.

This and other decisions will not be easy. I just hope Shapiro/Atkins will be making them and not Rogers.

SK in NJ - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#340964) #

I don't think fans are clamoring for a tear down. It is more about accepting the reality of the situation. Many, myself included, were anticipating a drop off from the big league roster eventually due to the short window that was created in July 2015. That time appears to have come in 2017. You have to be able to adjust with the circumstances, and right now, taking a step back to improve the farm system and put more high upside talent into the pipeline is more desirable than trying to piece together 80 wins with an old roster that has no immediate help in the farm.

Ideally, the Jays can add both prospects and big league pieces in a deal to make the transition period a little less depressing. When I look at teams that make sense for Donaldson, the one completely obvious fit is the Mets. They need a 3B. They have Michael Conforto sitting on the big league bench and Amed Rosario in the minors. If they could get a year and a half of Donaldson, with two chances to win the WS with their existing core, they might be willing to do that (not sure they'd move Rosario but just using him as an example). That's the type of deal that could be available this summer, but not next summer. Timing is very important.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#340966) #

Pretty much my feelings exactly SK.

eudaimon - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#340968) #

Even if this team does suck (a bit too early to say that for sure IMO) is a tear down really necessary? So far the issue has been with the hitting - if the team hit at even a league average pace we'd be at .500 or better.

The offense has been an issue largely due to four black holes in the lineup: Martin, Bautista, Travis, Pearce. If Bautista is truly done (I don't think he is) then he's gone next year and we spend the money elsewhere. The other three guy I'm not too worried about.

Our pitching staff is strong and bolstered by two cheap and good kids, a solid veteran signed cheaply for another year (Happ), and two free agents who could be signable on a discount (Estrada, Liriano), especially the former given his positive experience in the city. Depending on how things go the rotation could continue to be a strength in 2018.

In short, the team has sucked so far but some positive regression should be expected. Even if some key elements of the team are done, the team could be competitive with a solid off-season by the FO.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#340969) #

No FA is going to sign at a discount, especially Estrada who lost a chance at real FA due to the compensation rules at the time. Yes, I believe he does like bring in TO but not at the cost of millions of dollars. Due to his recurring back problems, he would not be a good candidate for a long term contract in my view. Sure, someone will give him one but I would prefer it is not the Jays. Besides which, there should be much in house pitching available by 2019 if not mid 2018.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#340970) #

Anyone have any thoughts on Burger or Crowe?

ramone - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#340971) #

"Anyone have any thoughts on Burger or Crowe?"

BA from their chat today on Burger:

Justin (Tucson): What are scouts saying about the hit tool for Missouri State's 3b Jake Burger? His power is legit and is putting together another incredible season. Am I crazy to think he has top 15 pick potential as a middle of the order bat?

John Manuel: I think you're close. But I think there are real questions about the defense; I tried to comp him to David Freese to one scout and the retort was, "Well, he's not as good of an athlete." That woke me up a bit.

Link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1492624274

Also I listened to BA's draft podcast, they said they think the Jays will go college and "safe" in the first round, preferring a college position player.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#340972) #

Jays have 2 first round picks. One of them should be a college pitcher imo.

Nigel - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#340973) #

China Fan, I understand your cynicism towards rebuilds. I agree that they aren't simple, short or always successful. I also agree that in many cases management of sports teams with significant resources can play both the short and long game (i.e. build for both the short and the long term) and that its prudent approach to do so. I think the one time that its nearly impossible to take that approach is where a team has some aging stars nearing the end of their contracts and the team, as a whole, is competitive but flawed. In this unique circumstance, I believe management must either plan for now or later (i.e. they must either spend significant resources (cash or prospects) to fix the flaws or they have to sell off the stars). Trying to play the short and the long game in this one scenario leaves the team likely short of the playoffs/championships in the short term and also to lose star level players for nothing which hurts the long term. The Canucks and Flames are two recent, NHL examples, of teams in this situation. Both NHL teams chose to try and make modest additions to aging cores and both found that they didn't help themselves in the short or the long term. Both face/faced deeper holes when they finally threw in the towel and focus on rebuilds.

I thought in the offseason that the team was good enough to make those significant investments. Others likely disagree. In my view, the Jays front office was at a clear cross roads on this team with Donaldson being the central decision point.

scottt - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#340974) #

The Jays, really, don't have much to sell. That's the flaw in signing cheap relievers instead of elite ones. I don't know if Estrada can be extended. He wanted more years, less money per year last time. Liriano can be offered a QO which he would likely take. Donaldson could be traded, but the price would have to be high and Donaldson is already pretty expense, so the team getting him would be taking on a lot of money that they didn't have in the winter. So to trade Donaldson and get prospects/young players Toronto would have to eat a lot of his salary.
If they're so obsessed with Goins, they should move Barney.

PeterG - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#340975) #

Good point on Liriano, Scott. That might work out. I do think pending FA Barney will be traded but not till July. That is one reason Goins is being retrained.

dan gordon - Friday, April 21 2017 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#340983) #

I think Donaldson could very well be kept by the Jays if he wants to stay here. Of course, none of us know what he wants to do. He may not decide until he sees how the season plays out. The rotation has a good start to next year with Sanchez, Stroman and Happ. I think Biagini is a good candidate for a spot, and I see no reason to conclude that neither Liriano nor Estrada will be retained. I think this can be a very good team next year. Tellez, Pompey, Alford, maybe one of the top pitching prospects could all be factors. Maybe D.Smith, Leblebijian. I still think the 2020 team includes Pompey, unless injuries derail him.

The one name on the BA list that surprises me, and I've seen him on a couple of other lists this year as well, is Osman Gutierrez. He is in his 6th season in the farm system now, and has had mediocre numbers throughout. His WHIP has been 1.38 or higher every year, averaging 1.51. A good predictor for pitching prospects is K:BB ratio, and Gutierrez does not score well by that metric, with a career of about 2 to 1. You'd like to see 3 to 1 or better. So far this year, he has been blitzed in Lansing to the tune of 11 hits and 8 walks in 9 1/3 IP, with an ERA of 13.50 and a WHIP over 2.00. I have him much farther down on my prospect list.

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