That was another good night for Moaky.

It's sad so many others have trouble hitting Big Sexy.

I'm an old crusty fart, so am not eating up the "self-expression" the players are getting to exhibit, particularly when that expression is taking two main forms: zany socks and "nicknames" that are too often no more clever than slapping a 'y' on a last name. Or in Smoak's case, also dropping the first letter (?).

The socks feel like something from the corporate world, where button-down accountants reveal their zany side with hideous socks. My debits and credits may balance, but check out these socks, I'm a wild man. Okay Smitty, Jonesy, Fitzy, whatever your name is. Rein it in. Your zaniness is out of control.

/end of old man rant

They need to change Mo Mo's nickname to Slow Mo.

It’s all about marketing, Chuck.  Big Biz Baseball cheered on by Commish
Manfred and the MLBPA.  All those extra jerseys for sale, proceeds to
the needy players!  How can we monetize the game even more?  Gotta
monetize the game, dude.  There are few organizations more ‘corporate’
through and through than MLB.  Try not to think about it.

There have been a lot of crass cash grabs in MLB in recent decades, but this has to be the worst. And the broadcasters pandering, yukking over some nickname they find particularly clever, only underlines how embarrassing this is for everyone involved. Why not just have thugs outside the stadium beating people up and stealing their money?

Why not just have thugs outside the stadium beating people up and stealing their money?

Ah, it's like with lottery tickets and gambling. If you can get people to want to give up their money, it's a much more elegant solution than having to resort to thuggery.

Wow! I'm no proponent of this nickname thing - I don't know and don't care what they have on their jerseys. But I really don't get popping a blood vessel over it either.

I know this wouldn't be popular in some circles, but I would roll with Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, Estrada, and Biagini next year with Koehler (or someone of his ilk) as the long man in the pen. This might let the Jays spend their assets (of whatever kind) and find two more major league outfielders and a capable backup middle infielder.

I happen to like many of the duds the teams are wearing this weekend, some more than their actual jerseys. I'll take the Jays' version over the red monstrosities any day.

I'm sure glad Carrera and his crappy 120 RC+ doesn't get any more playing time against RH starters. He keeps lengthening these games by getting on base. :)

Would be a better idea if honest nicknames were used. Morales could have (from nicest to nastiest) "Molasses" "Dub Play", or "Sunk Cost" on his jersey.

Hernandez and Alford look ready. How many outfielders do you need?
I'd be shocked if Goins isn't the backup middle infield next year. I get that they need one who can hit whenever Tulo or Travis is on the shelf,  but that role should go to a guy with options, otherwise it's going to be a puzzle finding AB for everyone.

So, to get the good Estrada they just needed to pencil him in?

Carrera seems at his best when he doesn't play too often.

I don't mind the multiple jerseys and the funny names. It's just another promo.
I think it's actually good that Tabby and Buck have something to talk about.
Just stop messing with the rules like the no-pitch intentional walks.

I hope to see Goins as the backup infielder next year. For all the knocks that he can't hit, he does have 50 RBI's now. I guess RBI's aren't considered as important now but he does see to come through in the clutch.

I happen to like many of the duds the teams are wearing this weekend

I guess it's all in the eye of the beholder. To my eyes, they have the look of kids' pyjama tops similar to the pullover uniform shirts of the 1970s.

I'd like to see the Jays try and work out a deal for the Astros AAA 2B Tony Kemp this offseason. Good insurance for Travis and doesn't belong in the minors.

And Gibby wins another 1-run ball game!

How many OF do the Jays need? Well, I'd answer that this way. A major league team needs roughly 2000 AB's a year from its OFs. If Carrera and Pillar remain, I'd argue that for platoon and other reasons they would provide the best value if they took up 700-800 of those AB's. I wouldn't bank on Alford and Hernandez providing 1200 league averagish AB's next year. Plus, they are both RH bats and the team desperately needs some balance. What the team really needs is a LH hitting OF with a wide range of offensive skills. Someone who could play CF would be a bonus. A Dyson or a Reddick if you will. In that scenario I would have one of Alford and Hernandez on the roster with a view that the other comes up when an injury occurs or they are simply better than one of the 4 OFs on the major league roster.

i would pay up for a top SP. or two. nothing in the pipeline there for a few years, unless we stick osuna in the rotation.

i'd let hernandez/alford/pompey fight for OF time. at the very least they'll upgrade the defense big time. and given our OF production this year they could match or better that, too.

This is one reason why I suggested that the Jays sign Rich Hill last off-season (rotation help for 2017, 2018, and maybe 2019). If you want to sign a conventional front-rotation arm, you're going to pay a lot more than the 3/48 Hill signed for.

Realistically, of course, Hill was probably always headed back to the Dodgers at that price.

Ryan Borucki has given up 1 infield hit in his first 5 innings tonight. Then, promptly picked off the runner. Thinking this might be appropriately posted in this thread tonight.

Ryan Borucki is a big fan of M Buehrle. I hope he can have the same career.

Is this a reasonable current top-11 prospect list? Or do players like Greene and Reid-Foley still need to be somewhere in the top eleven? Does McGuire deserve to be on this list, in light of his performance this year?

Guerrero Jr.
Bichette
Alford
Pearson
Warmoth
Hernandez
Pentecost
Jansen
Zeuch
Gurriel
Borucki

As soon as next year, Vladdy Jr and Bichette may well pose some very very interesting questions for Rogers about when to start service times and how to deal with their six years (give or take) of cost controlled service.

i'd take pentecost and gurriel out and replace them with mcguire or maese or srf or urena.

This is total hyperbole, but it seems the way Pentecost is moving through the system, he'll be Bartolo Colon's age by the time he reaches AAA.

For 2018 I suspect we will see Bautista back again at a much lower salary as I doubt the current crew wants too many holes and might try to get rid of last winters free agent Kendrys Morales. Pearce belongs in the DH role. Bautista is at least passable in RF (-2.4 runs by the fangraph method) surprisingly he has been a positive at 3B so far making all 9 routines plays and missing 2 hard ones (under 40% odds for each). For really odd Donaldson is a negative on defense at 3B this year while making all 5 plays at SS (all routine).

I expect this to be an interesting offseason.

Dwight Smith being a LH hitter jumps his odds of being in the mix but his mediocre AAA numbers (272/345/398) don't help.

Anthony Alford is someone the Jays are super-high on but will probably spend April and May in AAA at least (296/391/409 between AA and A+). Lourdes Gourriel will get a real shot in spring despite his poor 232/266/340 line between AA and A+ (hitting better in AA but just a 668 OPS) plus he is mainly being used at 2B/SS right now.

It expect Guerrero and Bichette to be signed to long term contracts as soon as they show some success at the MLB level.
Service time and control years don't apply to franchise players. Even the Rays signed Longoria.

When your top prospects hits right handed, you put left bats at other positions.
Right now the left bats are Smoak, Morales, Goins and Carrera.
That's 1B, DH, backup infield and 4th outfielder.
On the prospect side, Tellez, Urena and McGuire hits left. That's 1B, SS and C.
All of those guys could see playing time next year.

The big question is obviously Guerrero. As long as he stick at 3rd, no problem, but if he moves to first, you lose a left bat slot.  That might be more an argument for a left bat a 3rd though and not a problem before 2019 any way.

So, there's a need for a big left bat in the outfield who blocks young players and maybe force Pillar out only if you force a right bat in the DH slot.

"Bautista is at least passable in RF (-2.4 runs by the fangraph method)"

The other FG defensive stat is Defensive Runs Saved where Jose is -11, the worst of any RF in baseball.

I hope to see Goins as the backup infielder next year... he does see to come through in the clutch.

For his career, his 600 OPS (62+ OPS) breaks down as follows:

RISP: 30% of career PA, 722 OPS
non-RISP: 70% of career PA, 560 OPS

Many, myself included, are convinced that performance numbers in "clutch" situations are more a function of random variability than an underlying ability (or inability) to thrive in the moment. But maybe in Goins' case, it's worth keeping an open mind.

If he wants to guarantee a career, and if he does truly have a capacity to better focus in certain situations, he might want to start using those super-powers in the 70% of his plate appearances that he is punting.

Goins RISP/non-RISP PA breakdown is actually 25%/75%. So it's an even greater percentage of his at-bats that he is giving away.

I don't think there is any chance we see Bautista back. If he is smart, he will retire rather than embarrass himself further.

A Donaldson trade could shake up all the line up projections for 2018.

As for the top 10, I would take out McGuire and Pentecost and add SRF and Urena. I would have Olivares very close if not in there as well. Jansen could be a couple of slots higher.

Don't think there is any service time issue. Don't see Vlad or Bichette up early next year. They're still in A ball. ETA is probably late next year if things go well, and signing extensions is not a simple thing. There has to be a benefit to the player and players are not getting smarter. Lindor turned down an extension last year. Correa has said he's not interested in signing an extension right now. Betts has not signed. Harper refused to sign an extension, etc..

I think the FO will try to sign both Vlad and Bo to long extensions (7-10 years) if both reach the Majors young and look to be as good as they are projected to be. Whether they actually sign it is a different story. The Jays probably cannot wait for them to become stars and then offer them the big contracts. They might have to take a risk and offer it to them before they produce big numbers, which would be a lot riskier for the team since even top prospects can bust, but more likely to get a deal done. Of course if one or both end up being represented by Boras, then it's a moot point. I don't think we will see too many more Evan Longoria type of extensions (which was way too team friendly) but if the Jays are dealing with two players that reach the Majors at age 20-21, then a very long extension makes a lot of sense for the team even if they have to risk big dollars towards the end. The player will also take a chance that they would be undercutting their own earning potential down the road, so it's not going to be easy either way.

I think the extension for kids depends on a series of factors not the least of which is how confident the kid is of their ability to a) produce and b) stay healthy. Longoria knew (as all Ray players would) that the team has limited cash and if they want a long term deal there they have to sign at a young age as a better deal won't be coming. I remember in 2008 the Rays left him down at the start of the year and jokes were made that it might cost them a playoff slot then they shocked everyone and made the playoffs. If he hadn't signed then he would've had to wait until after the 2014 season to be a free agent. 2008 until 2014 is a long time. He missed half a season in 2012 and 2014 was his worst OPS+ year at 107.

Longoria's first deal was signed 6 days after coming up for under $20 mil over 6 years with 3 club option years, then after his injury year in 2012 the Rays took advantage and signed him to a new 6 year $100 mil deal covering 2017 to 2022 (added to the end of his cheap first deal). Factoring in claimed options and all else Longoria has made $57 mil so far and will pocket another $86 mil even if he breaks his legs tomorrow. So $143 mil no matter what will be his lifetime earnings minimum. So far only 20 players have made more in ML history (including ex-Jays Delgado, Clemens, Halladay) A-Rod at $353 mil is easily #1 with Jeter #2 at $253, and ManRam the only other to crack $200 mil. Others will join them as Giancarlo Stanton signed for over $300 mil, Miguel Cabrera's latest contract was $248, Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano $240, With Votto, Price, Kershaw, Fielder, Scherzer, Greinke, all signing deals worth over $200 mil also.

So the question becomes do Vlad and Bichette want to be career Jays and how confident are they that they will have long healthy careers? How much would it cost to keep them long term? No player with under a years service time has signed for more than $25 mil (Chris Archer) The record with a full year is $58 mil (Andrelton Simmons) then at 2+ years you get $20 mil a year deals (Trout).

I suspect Vlad might be interested as he seems to want to stick right away and have a HOF career which would be helped with a quick start plus a 6 or 7 year deal would still let him be a free agent before 30. Sign the deal and the Jays would keep him up more likely than if he didn't (teams hate to send down big contracts). If the Jays really want to be innovative they'd sign him to a long term deal this winter with language that allows it to start once he reaches the majors or in 2019, whichever comes first. That is if they really think he is going to be an all-star once he reaches.

Sometimes you need to change the chemistry on a team. Bautista has been here for a long time and presumably is the top dog in the clubhouse. I don't know what goes on in there but often you see a team play better when the old top dog goes.

I agree with the top 3 for sure. #4 Pearson seems V good because of his stuff and incredible results. Next year will determine a lot, because he will start in full season ball. #5 Jansen because he has had an incredible year at 3 levels. Nobody is committing to an opinion on his defense. Neither good or bad. I hope to hear what Gil Kim has to say or just wait until he gets to Toronto. T Hernandez #6, has good tools and pretty good results. But 25 years old in Oct.

The other 5 spots have a lot of candidates. The key Sept call ups are whom I will choose from. Borucki, Panonne and others that I hope get a chance to showcase themselves.

Vladimir Guerrero made about 125M. Dante Bichette 42M.
A ten year contract that guarantees twice the money than their dads made and would still leave them several years of free agency would be a starting point. I'm sure those kids are more interested in getting to the bigs early than fighting over how much money they'll be making in 8 or 9 years.

Not sure why everyone assumes that they will be offered long term extensions. To my knowledge, Donaldson was not. I understand his age makes him a little different, but not that much. I think you forget that 7-10 years is a lifetime for public company (Rogers) executives. I think it far more likely that Guerrero will be rushed to the majors as marketing cover for a deadline trade of Donaldson than a 7-10 year deal.

yeah I think the top few are clearcut.

vlad clearcut #1.

bo clearcut #2.

alford clearcut #3.


and for me pearson is a pretty clearcut #4 - he had the talent to go top 10 and is backing it up at an appropriate age and level.


after that it gets a bit murkier. i tend to favor performance over rep so for me Jansen finishes off the top 5, while warmoth gets 6th mostly based on draft status.

Hernandez probably tucks in around here with good tools and consistently good if flawed performances the past couple years.

I would lean towards maese and zeuch left because imo they're the only guys with solid performances 2yrs running at age appropriate levels, even if this year has been interrupted due to injury.

after that we get to the inconsistent guys with wildly different performances the past couple years. here i would lean towards the guys with the louder tools so guys like urena, McGuire, SRF.

borucki's a bit hard for me to rank right now because he's still a bit old even for AA. But he could easily be oncouded in the top 10.

Tellez is tough too - the best track record of any hitter in the system by a good margin before vlad/bo got here, but a truly awful year this year, which not quite but almost a killer for an all bat prospect.

gurriel i dunno - no performance yet, and not even any huge tools to get excited about.

after that it's more longshot guys who haven't shown much above A ball. greene, pentecost, olivares, palacios. They could finish off my top 20 but then again j might prefer younger defensive whizzes like vicuna and hernandez. not sure which way i'd go down there.


1.Vlad
2.Bo
3.Alford
4.Pearson
5.Jansen
6.Warmoth
7.Hernandez
8.Zeuch
9.Maese
10.McGuire
11.Urena
12.SRF
13.Borucki
14.Tellez
15.Gurriel

But now that i look at it maybe it's weird to have 4 guys who made top 100 lists to start the year outside of our top 10. As always these ranks can change fast

still don't really see why they think biagini can start in mlb.

Starting experiment might not last too long.

Sorry But and Pat, as great as Stieb was, he can't be the greatest Blue Jay ever when he wasn't the greatest Blue Jay pitcher ever.

Biagini will get a few more chances. He has to improve fastball command. However, today was not as bad as the line would indicate as there were 3 bloop hits and not a lot hit really hard. The jury is still out imo but he will have to be better.

Guys, don't sleep on Samad Taylor. He's a very very good player. Reminds me of Jose Reyes. Won't pop 20 HRs a year but can hit for average, plays great defense, might be faster than Reggie Pruitt and will hit 10 to 15 HRs each year. At the age of 19, I am very impressed with the couple times I saw him play for Vancouver.

Conversely, not a huge Logan Warmoth fan. I saw him play once. I don't know what the scouting report is on his defense but he stayed back on some balls he should have charged, and didn't have the arm strength to make that throw. Can't comment about the bat really. Was patient at the plate, laid down a bunt for a single and struck out once.

I am more impressed with Taylor rather than Warmoth.

Biagini has a nice 12-6 curve  You need to know who can hit it and who can't before you throw it consecutively though.
He didn't get to pitch out of the stretch much, which is what the trip down to Buffalo was about.
Some well located fastballs found holes. Was getting behind in the count too often.
Some of that is just bad pitch selection. 
It's not like the Twins starting pitching was anything to write home about.

It would be nice to see some of our young pitchers with a competent catcher like Martin or Maile behind the plate instead of the 2 embarrassments that are being trotted out now.

finch you're right about taylor. he should be on myblist somewhere. he's exactly my kind of prospe t.

Taylor was a nice get for the Jays. I'm looking forward to following his progress through the system.

Finch, range and arm strength are definitely big questions for Warmoth to answer if he is going to stay at SS. I think he has a dent chance to do it, but because his range and arm strength are never going to be good, I just dont see how he can be more than an average defender at the position (if all goes well). He really looks like a future 2B to me. He looks like Russ Adams to me, with better contact skills and softer hands.

[Stieb] can't be the greatest Blue Jay ever when he wasn't the greatest Blue Jay pitcher ever.

True. But seeing as how he has a pretty good case to be the greatest Jays pitcher ever...

Regarding the top 10s and such, this is the major league thread.  I have some thoughts about prospects, but I'll put them in the minor league thread. 

Sorry But and Pat, as great as Stieb was, he can't be the greatest Blue Jay ever when he wasn't the greatest Blue Jay pitcher ever.

True. But seeing as how he has a pretty good case to be the greatest Jays pitcher ever...

I can forgive this. They played with/against him, and he was the best Jays pitcher before Halladay. Picking #2 isn't the worst thing they've done.

Like him or hate him, but Roger Clemens was right up there,too although he was only in Toronto for a couple of years.

People have forgotten how Stieb was one of the best, if not the best pitcher from 1980-1985 in the AL. If voters then were smarter he'd probably have gotten a Cy or two during that stretch. But Wins were all that mattered back then so he was screwed by a horrid pen and bad run support.

bWAR: 7.9/7.7/7.0/6.9/5.8/4.9/4.5/4.3/3.3/2.3/1.6/1.4/0.1/0.0/-0.3 his negative was 1992 trying to come back from an injury in 1991. Just listing Jays years

For comparison Halladay...
bWAR: 8.1/7.4/6.9/6.2/5.5/5.3/3.5/3.0/2.6/2.4/0.4/-2.8 (that horrid 10.64 ERA season). His Philly years were 8.9/8.3/0.9/-1.0

And Clemens...
bWAR: 11.9/8.2 (his best and 6th best seasons - yes, he was that good). His best here was #36 all-time for single season WAR, including pre 1900 insane years and vs Ruth & Bonds.

So for peak value you have to go with Clemens - that first year here was 'wow' and that was without drugs as even that infamous trainer said he didn't start until after that point.

For the rest of career it is close between Halladay and Stieb. Halladay a bit higher peak but Stieb was more consistently high. If Halladay's Philly years were here he'd be #1 easily but those 2 years were elsewhere.

Quite the battle there though for best ever. Fun fact - all 3 were on the 1998 Jays team, Stieb's comeback year, Clemens second (and final) season here and Halladay's first call up where he almost had a no-hitter on the final game of the season and would've had a perfect game if the second baseman hadn't booted a ball. Instead the leadoff guy got one last chance and hit a home run into the bullpen where who else but Dave Stieb caught it.

The Stieb vs Halladay question is interesting. Halladay had a better total career, but a significant portion was played elsewhere. In evaluating best player, pitcher the Blue Jays have had, I look at just what the plyer did as a Blue Jay. Stieb had a WAR of 58.4 as a Jay, whereas Halladay was 48.5. Stieb pitched more than 800 innings more as a Jay than Halladay did. I think a lot of people don't remember, or aren't old enough to have seen how good Stieb was. I know wins aren't a reflection of how well a guy has pitched, but the fact that he won only 14 games in 1985 still amazes me. He started 36 games, pitched 265 innings, led the league in ERA, and played for the team that was 4th in the league in runs scored, but got only 14 wins. The bullpen and/or the offense seemed to fail him with great regularity that year, and many other years as well. He gets my vote for best Jays pitcher.

Stieb's slider ranks as the best pitch in Jays history and it's not close. It was a ridiculous pitch. I keep looking for an equivalent in today's game and I really haven't seen one. I don't think that this is old guy's misty eyed remembrance. About a month ago, Stroman threw a Stieb like SL and ended up on MLB.com's videos of the day. Stieb threw 5-10 SL's equal or better every game. No joke.

The Stieb/Halladay debate is reasonable. The list as a whole is, of course, the ridiculous nonsense you would expect from subjective evaluations. The one thing I knew I could count on was Joe Carter landing far too high for my tastes. But no sense revisiting all that. The Joe Carter horse has been sufficiently beaten over the years.

Because this is the Twins thread, I am thinking that Buxton wins the gold glove in CF this year, much to the chagrin of the Pillar faithful. Ordinarily it is Kiermaier's award to lose, but he has missed a ton of time this season.

"Not sure why everyone assumes that they will be offered long term extensions. To my knowledge, Donaldson was not. I understand his age makes him a little different, but not that much. I think you forget that 7-10 years is a lifetime for public company (Rogers) executives. I think it far more likely that Guerrero will be rushed to the majors as marketing cover for a deadline trade of Donaldson than a 7-10 year deal."


Donaldson is in his 30's. Signing him to a deal around 5-7 years in length will cover his decline period. A long-term deal for Guerrero, even if it's 10 years in length, would cover all of his 20's and a bit after that depending on how old he was when he signed the contract. The risk would be substantially less. This front office signed Guirrel to a seven year deal. Granted it was a fairly cheap contract overall but I don't think length bothers them when dealing with young players. With older players, it is a different story.

Shapiro, and the Cleveland organization in general over the last 20 years or so, was known to sign players early to long-term deals. I don't see why he wouldn't bring that same philosophy to Toronto, especially since he now has more money and a bigger market to keep the elite/good players the team does develop.

It takes two to tango, so the Jays might be willing to sign young players long-term, but the player(s) might balk at it, or vice versa. But I think the first time we do see the Shapiro regime spend big, it will be to keep existing players long-term. He already stated he hates free agency, so I wouldn't expect much expenditure there.

It takes two to tango, so the Jays might be willing to sign young players long-term

I'd love to see a proper analysis done, but it seems to me that more and more young players are choosing to play roulette, opting for the big payday rather than a lesser, safer one.

I think much of the hesitation among your players (or agents) of late is due to the expected resetting of the market in 2018 free agency. If that exceeds the FA of past years, more will wait, while if it disappoints in terms of financial hand outs, it will revert back to what has been the norm.

I agree Chuck. Buxton should win the CF Gold Glove, and I think he should win the AL Platinum Glove on top of it.

Stieb had all those close no hitters. That was incredible. He did not get good enough run support.

Maybe if we look at run support/game and also how much better his era was against the closest competitors of that time.

PSA:  one-year defensive statistics are subject to wide error bars.  Kevin Kiermaier has a negative UZR this year so far. 

Anyways, Buxton is probably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball right now.  Kevin Pillar has, however, put in an amazing 3 years with the glove- it's funny, way back when, I thought that he could hit .270/.300/.400 and be a good defensive corner outfielder and a 2 WAR player.  He's one of the very few players who I got almost exactly right from the offensive side but, on this occasion, missed significantly on the low side on the defence. 

I don't pretend to know what goes into these various defensive statistics and think they're all bunk unless you watch the player on a frequent basis, but DRS does seem to line up nicely at each position with my own anecdotal evidence. DRS has Buxton +23, Pillar +16, and Keirmaier +14, but it's a counting stat so KK has been better than Pillar this year as well. Pillar's defense has bounced back nicely from the midseason slump I thought he was having. DRS has Goins as a positive 2B but a negative SS, which I think is bang on as well. I'm hoping Martin can recover quickly enough for us to get a look at him in the infield this season.

I really, really hesitate to give Buxton that kind of defensive credit when his previous years' numbers were nowhere in this ballpark, and when there's such a big discrepancy between drs and uzr even this year.

I think he's put himself in the convo for top CF but it's very arguable. And I just don't see him as good as Kiermaier regardless.

I think he should win the AL Platinum Glove on top of it.

In a league with Andrelton Simmons?

Check out the Tanner Roark curveball (currently) 8 frames from the top.  I guess a good curveball is nasty whereas a good slider is filthy. 

In a league with Andrelton Simmons?

Oof, I'll admit I forgot about him. Yes, he is the best defender.

Hazel Mae reporting Brett Anderson is in Toronto.

Aoki DFA. Campos recalled.

Aoki DFA. Campos recalled.

Aoki hit 3 homers in 34 PAs in Toronto. Not bad.

Did I mention how much I love the 9 man pen?  In this case, I guess it's good preparation for the 12 man pens of September.

Anderson will start tomorrow so there will be another move tomorrow. Koehler to the bullpen, for now.

Aoki hit 3 homers in 34 PAs in Toronto. Not bad.

Maybe it's to give him a chance to land on a playoff-bound team before Sep 1?

Yep, Chuck, that definitely crossed my mind.