Going to the game because I thought it would be prospect friendly. Have been checking every 30 mins since Tuesday hoping for call up announcements...

Wow, DET's starters this series have ERA's of 7.18 (Farmer), 5.98 (Bell), and 7.07 (Sanchez).

DET has a few lessons to teach Shapkins about tank battles.

Tonight's 4 and 5 hitters vs RHP:

215/278/417
231/275/355

Never mind what follows thereafter!

This year hasn't shown Gibbons' in the best light. You have to hope that the front office gives him a roster next year that allows for more of a set lineup approach and where the reserves have very defined roles. Mixing and matching isn't this managers strength. One of my criticisms of the offseason plan was that they weren't giving their manager a roster that played to his strengths.

Hmmm. When you make three outs on one swing of the bat... and the other guys score four runs on one swing of the bat... might not be your night.

Checking in after two months off the Jays. Last game I watched was in between the tea ceremony and the garden ceremony of my wedding. They were also playing the Tigers.


That's the first triple play I've witnessed in a game I'm actually watching.

How do Bauxites view Anthony Alford's defensive skills in the outfield? I've been scouring the internet looking for UZR or Runs Saved, but I'm not sure it's covered in the minors. It would be interesting to hear whether the Jays think he could play center field.

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/anthony-alford-3/

Here's a scouting report from a few months ago

Luck has no role in this Magpie. Some teams just have the grit and gamers necessary to pull off a grand slam and a triple play in the same game and some don't!

That's the first triple play I've witnessed in a game I'm actually watching.

Same. I've watched the Jays and baseball since 1992 and I'm sure that's the first one I've seen as if occurred.

*as it

Many of us saw an amazing triple play in the World Series... but the box score doesn't tell the tale.

Thanks Bob Davidson.

I remember seeing that triple play a few years back vs. Cleveland. An unassisted triple play. It was a deeply demoralizing moment (unless you were pulling for the Indians)

Right now the only watchable thing about the Jays is Hernandez and Urena. Really disappointed more kids aren't up. This just feels like rollover time for most of the team. I haven't watched in forever, so I don't know if that's fair. They could also just not be good enough. Can't wait for this season to end.

I was at the game and enjoyed it. Bautista running hard while McCann ambled after the short passed ball was a particular little pleasure.

Urena has obvious talent but seems to have some focus issues. He must have dropped the ball at least three times on casual tosses. He is only 21 and probably should start next year in New Hampshire again at the start of the season.

Hernandez seems a bit out of sorts. I think that he needs to play every day and get more comfortable. That can be arranged this September.

Finally the crowd was pretty positive considering the situation. The eighth inning wave was greeted with more enthusiasm tonight than earlier in the season.

And yes, it was my first live triple play. Cross that one off my bingo card- actually a Yahtzee analogy might be more apt.

From 1994 to 2014 we saw 21 seasons of little hope. 1994 being most painful as the Jays just won it all the year before and a strike took out a third of the season.

This is year one of no playoffs after 2 nice runs of getting to the ALCS. Not 92/93 but close enough after 21 years of 'wait till next year'. I'm hopeful we aren't entering another 20 years of 'argh'. In 1994 the Jays were old and falling apart with 3 regulars under 30 in Olerud (dumped the next season), Alomar (left as free agent after following season), and Sprague (would be around until 1998 just once going over 1.5 WAR while playing 3B everyday). However, getting cups of coffee were future all-stars in Carlos Delgado, and Shawn Green plus solid player Alex Gonzalez #1 (most years his most similar is Alex Gonzalez #2 which was kind of funny). The rotation had 4 guys under 30 in Pat Hentgen, Juan Guzman, Todd Stottlemyre, and Al Leiter (all had 20+ starts). In the minors at that time there was Shannon Stewart and Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar. Yet despite that much raw talent - and that is a LOT of talent - the Jays wouldn't make the playoffs for 2 decades. Thanks worst GM ever Gord Ash :P

Bad choices made in the winter of 1994/1995: trading 3 prospects for David Cone, not resigning Roberto Alomar when they had a chance (Ash claimed he thought prices for players would go down post-strike), signing a stack of old guys for 1995 instead of giving kids a chance (Danny Darwin, Candy Maldonado, Lance Parrish, Frank Viola, etc.), holding onto all vets and not trading any who had value before they became free agents (Devon White, Paul Molitor, Al Leiter) nor did he resign any. Of course, that first year he did draft Roy Halladay which makes up for a LOT.

So guess we'll see if our current GM/president team has the smarts to do better. Namely to accept where the Jays are now in the win cycle and to adapt from there. To contend the Jays need to add at least 15 wins and that ain't easy even if they open the pocketbook fully.

How do the Jays improve? Worst positions this year by sOPS+ (OPS+ vs other teams at the same position, AL only) 100 = league average production. Does not factor in defense as sadly BR doesn't list WAR by position by team.

CA: dead last 64 sOPS+, a healthy Martin would help a ton as would a competent backup or two.
1B: #1 with a 113 sOPS+, what a year from Smoak.
2B: #12 with a 75 sOPS+, much better than dead last LAA 54 but miles from the 160 Houston is getting.
3B: #5 with a 108 sOPS+, despite an off year from Donaldson. FYI: Martin hit well at 3B as well.
SS: #14 of 15 with a 76 sOPS+, just KC was worse (by a lot) Off year from Tulo plus poor backups
LF: #11 with a 89 sOPS+ Pearce did well, Carrera dragged it down.
CF: #12 with a 84 sOPS+, Pillar has the D though
RF: #13 with an 85 sOPS+, only Ian Parmley has hit worse than Bautista for the Jays in RF and he only played 1 game.
DH: #4 with a 103 sOPS+, go figure...Bautista hit well here but the vast majority of it is Morales.

So CA is the biggest issue by far, followed by 2B and SS. Only problem is 2 of those are manned by guys who aren't going anywhere other than the DL. So for 2018 better backups are critical for those 2 spots and getting a healthy productive Travis (I'll believe that when I see it) would change everything. LF/CF/RF all are about equally weak on offense, but CF gives 'wow' defense.

Thus to try to gain wins next year LF/RF and better infield health and better backups for CA and middle infield are key. Is that realistic to see 15 wins from that plus any pitching additions/health fixes? I don't think so unless they pull off a 'wow' trade ala AA and get someone like Stanton (sorry, just the most obvious improvement - from Bautista -1.6 WAR to Stanton 6.5 is a 8.1 win improvement and that takes care of half the issue just like that).

Post season I'll try this again but via FanGraphs to get WAR by position (I think they have it listed in a nicer way).

Interesting post John.  Those Ash years are a reminder to us that Shapiro v. AA is really a pretty good scenario.  Ash was a genuinely bad GM - the kind that doesn't exist anymore bad.  Dumping Olerud is arguably the worst GM move in Jays history.

Morales might be fourth in OPS+, but he's still running a -0.5 fWAR. 

What's most frustrating about the current team is that the 3 biggest issues you list could all have been easily addressed.  Salty was the worst possible choice for backup catcher in a market with a fair amount of cheap value available.  Veteran position players have historically low values right now and we failed to get any middle IF help aside from Rob Refsnyder, who is really unplayable anywhere and clearly not a middle IF.  I honestly can't figure this situation out - I don't love Shapiro, but he seems like a smart guy.  Is this ineptitude on Atkins?  Indifference to winning this year?  Sure, it's marginal stuff and we aren't making the playoffs with a better backup catcher or middle IF, but we could have improved at all of these positions at no real cost.  why didn't we?   

The offense has been a disappointment, yes: runs per game have gone from 4.69 to 4.25, and a drop-off of .44 runs per game is certainly significant. But runs allowed per game have increased from 4.11 to 4.94, an increase almost double the offensive drop-off. The ERAs of the starting pitchers have jumped by a full run, from 3.64, which was best in the league a year ago, to 4.63. I don't know why, but we just don't seem to notice it as much.

It's not all on the pitching, of course. The team defense has been significantly worse, at almost every position.

We had 1 or 2 starting pitchers on the DL all year, so the drop in ERA is expected.

The pen has been decent though and if Anderson looks like a lock for the 5th starter, the 4th spot is just a matter of bringing back Estrada or someone better. 

Replacing Bautista will be easy. Since Alford is not up, we can infer that he's not getting a starting spot in the spring. I'm fine with Hernandez in right and an old slugger in left. Could be Pearce. Could be Saunders. Could even be Refsnyder (if he gets hot in the spring) or Travis. I have no idea what they're doing but if you factor defense Pearce wasn't better than Carrera.

Urena is not ready and Bichette is at least a year away. I like Dee Gordon as a stopgap measure. He probably won't hit for .300, but unlike Goins and Barney, he's a great defender. Plus he bats left, so you can use him to rest Tulo and Travis against right handed starters and bring him as a defensive replacement for Travis. He will steal over 50 bases this year, so you use him to take Travis or anyone ahead of Morales out of the double play. Then when Morales grounds out, he moves to 3rd. Lots of possibilities and I wouldn't even care about losing the DH once the bullpen has taken over and we're swapping pitchers every innings anyway.  That means there would 0 AB left for Goins so he would have to go.  The only issue is you'd have Gordon for 3 years and he's probably only needed for 2, but he'd be tradeable for value if Rogers eat the money.  Or maybe it's Travis who gets pushed out by Bichette.

I wonder if the super utility player that we need is actually Russell Martin. He can play 3B, 2B, 1B, C and probably LF. He'd be great as a backup C once his contract runs out.

The offense... gone from 4.69 to 4.25 ... runs allowed per game have increased from 4.11 to 4.94

Because league norms have changed (2016: 4.5 R/G, 2017: 4.7), this discussion can be slightly reframed by comparing the Jays to the league averages:

2016: offense +0.17, defense +0.36
2017: offense -0.48, defense -0.25

In 2016, their bigger strength, compared to league norms, was their defense, though offense was a strength as well. In 2017, their bigger weakness is offense, though defense is a weakness as well.

The swing from 2016 to 2017: offense -0.65, defense -0.61

Lots of blame to go around for this year's demise. Much of that drop on defense isn't on the pitchers, but the defenders standing behind them (BPro has the Jays 14th in the AL in defensive efficiency -- they were 1st last year!).

"....Urena has obvious talent but seems to have some focus issues. He must have dropped the ball at least three times on casual tosses...."

I'm a little confused by this comment -- you mean he dropped the ball when the infielders were casually tossing around the ball in their warm-ups or in between plays?   If so, does that really signify anything at all?   In the plays that matter, he has only one error, and I've seen him make some excellent plays.  I haven't heard anyone saying his defence is not essentially major-league-ready.  Of course he'll need more time in the minors, but I would expect him to be in Buffalo next season, and he could be up in the majors again before the end of next year.

As you point out, he is still only 21.  Given his youth and talent, I'm a little surprised that he's not getting more attention.  Of course his hitting needs work, but he is so young that I would expect it to improve soon.  He has the raw tools.  Even in his limited time in the majors, he has shown speed and power.  (A stolen base and a home run already in just 16 ABs.)  He also has 3 walks in 4 games (versus 3 strikeouts) which suggests that he has patience and can find ways to get on base.  That's a tiny sample, obviously, but I also don't see any reason to project any conclusions from his hitting numbers in New Hampshire, where he was 3 years younger than the league's average age.

In sum, I think Urena is a prospect to be excited about.  With both Bichette and Urena on the way, it's perhaps only 2018 when we need to worry about the middle infield.

Urena has good speed and range, a good arm and a quick bat.
There's no telling if he'll put it all together, but the possibilities are intriguing.

Now tied for the 9th pick with San Diego, with an outside chance of falling behind the Braves,Mets,Reds maybe even the Tigers - all I can say is Keep it going boys, I'm behind you with every loss.

Much of that drop on defense isn't on the pitchers,

Well, Sanchez went from being the AL ERA leader to throwing only 36 innings.
I think that would be pretty significant.

Hernandez and Urena should play everyday from here on out. Looks like Urena was going to be benched until Donaldson had to be taken out of the lineup, and I really don't see the point of still running Goins and Barney out there as the middle infielders. Hernandez came in only after Pearce got hurt, as well. I get it, the veterans will get the priority, but after the season the Jays have had, it's hard to find reasons to keep watching or looking at the box scores. At least the younger players give some type of reason for interest.

Has this season felt like an eternity for anyone else? The playoff appearances went by like a blur, but this season feels like it will never end. I actually wouldn't mind watching a rebuilding team that is bad, but a veteran team that is bad is unwatchable. The off-season can't come soon enough.

Loyalty to vets. I remember JPA sitting a lot and J Buck playing. Cito may have known that JPA was not very good or he was letting Buck work on increasing his value.

Are these unwritten rules. I really don't know.

It could explain the lack of a 2nd wave of call ups.

However anyone in AA next year has a shot of coming up if the Jays go young. 40 man roster spots could be an excuse. Vlad & Bo are special cases. They could be held back for $ reasons.

Time will tell.

CF, focus is one of the things that I look for in deciding how likely it is that a young player will be able to turn tools into skills.  Urena has excellent tools- he runs well, he's got a quick enough first step, he throws well, has a quick bat and obvious pop in it (the home run the other way last night was a very good sign).  So far in his minor league career, his numbers have not reflected the tools, but he is, as you say, young.  I would let him develop more slowly though.   

Your mileage may vary.  If you don't think focus is important, then feel free to ignore.  I remember when the Rays traded Delmon Young for Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza.  I took the Rays' side on the deal and argued with people about Young- at the time, there were focus concerns about him despite his dominant minor league record and awesome physical tools.  I'll grant however that the focus concerns in Young's case were more serious at the time- Urena's situation seems to me to be more likely similar to issues we see with Ezequiel Carrera or saw with Chet Lemon. 

I do agree that Urena may require more focus to be successful but that said, I believe he will begin the season in Buffalo, not NH.

On another note, what do we think about Luis Santos? Will he be kept on the 40 man as a shuttle candidate next season. He has looked good in the limited exposure he has had and I hope he will get more innings before the month is out. Remember, he can be a minor league FA if not on the 40 man,

The rotation was a big issue...
1) Only 3 guys will reach 20 starts - Stroman, Estrada (both should get 30+) and Happ. vs last year with 5 having 29+ starts and just 2 others starting (8 by Liriano with a sub 3 ERA, 2 by Hutchison)

By years end the big 5 will be Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Liriano (18 starts), and Biagini (14 so far). Sanchez had 8, Bolsinger 5, 3 each for Valdez, Rowley, Latos, Tepesch. 2 each for Lawrence & Anderson (who should get a few more), and 1 for Tom Koehler. 14 starters, 33 pitchers in total vs 7 starters 29 in total last year. What a difference health makes. If before the season you said Biagini would be #5 for starts made I'm sure most of us would've said 'no way'.

FYI: Brett Cecil had a 103 ERA+ this year for St Louis. 0.8 fWAR (not based on ERA). So he wouldn't have made a big difference this year most likely.

What is the purpose of transferring Cesar Valdez to the 60 day DL? Is a 40 man roster spot needed for another call up or acquisition?

This probably doesn't fall under "focus", but yesterday Mahtook, who's not a burner but does have decent speed hit a ball deep in the hole with a runner on 1st. Urena got to the ball, but despite having zero chance of throwing out Mahtook still threw to 1st. The runner from seeing 1st, seeing the throw got to 3rd easily, instead of having to stay at 2nd if Urena had simply eaten the ball.

BTW, Both the Padres and Jays batters are at 7.3 fWAR, dead last in baseball. Jays hitters 90 wRC+ is 25th, but all 5 worse hitting teams are NL. Jays are 27th in baserunning and 28th in defence.

That would be Kendrys Morales first stolen base since October 2, 2009. Sorry Buck, but it was also a steal of home (part of a double steal with... Mike Napoli? Okay.)

What? No stolen base (because Hernandez was caught stealing.) What a shame.

It is an important last 20 or so games for Smoak. Since the end of July his OPS is .738 which is almost identical to his career OPS.

Smoak has had much more playing time than in recent seasons. He may be starting to get tired.

He might be tired, he might not be fully healthy, he might be in a slump or the league may have adjusted to his adjustments. Any are possible explanations.

Ramirez's stuff doesn't look that different from a lot of other guys but he sure does get some funky looking swings against.

Smoak not doing much against terrible Detroit pitching is certainly not the league having caught up to him.

"....What is the purpose of transferring Cesar Valdez to the 60 day DL? Is a 40 man roster spot needed for another call up or acquisition?...."
Valdez was transferred to the 60-man DL in early September to make room for the first wave of September promotions.  Most of the promoted players were already on the 40-man roster, but they needed space for one or two of them.
I believe the 40-man roster is currently full.  They would only need room on the roster if they decide to promote someone like Jansen or Fields (both of which now seem very unlikely).

Yes, it seems as if he was to make room for Santos on the 40. What confused me is that it was only announced Friday retroactive to September 1.

Richard Urena, who is back in the lead-off spot in the lineup again today, is clearly getting a LONG look from the Jays this month.

He singled to open the game, then raced all the way home on a Morales single, showing his speed again. He is turning some heads and may be advancing his career faster than we had realized.

I know I've read somewhere that they are resting Jansen, which explains why he's not called up. Fields would be useful, but perhaps they just don't want to put him on the 40-man roster.

The kids are putting on a show. Two home runs by Hernandez so far today.

(On the flip side, an error by Urena led to an unearned run against the Jays.)

Richard Urena is better than Darwin Barney. He might be or become better than Ryan Goins. It looks like two Middle Infielders will carried on the Bench next year as there are concerns about the continuing health of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis. Urena should and will get full consideration for the job. He's young, good and cheap - exactly what the team needs.

I would be shocked if Teoscar Hernandez is not at least the Jays' starting Right Fielder next year - he might be starting in Center. I don't know what the Jays plans are for 2018, but it's possible, but not likely that Kevin Pillar gets traded. Hernandez is young, good and cheap - exactly what the Team needs throughout the Outfield.

The unexpected performance of Luis Santos just makes the 40 man problem more difficult.

I am a big believer in Teoscar and I think he has a Normar Mazara esque 0.260/0.335/0.433 batting line next season with at least league average defence., and maybe a little more power.

Urena is showing why the scouts like him, but he needs to play everyday and start the season in the minors. In my opinion Urena still projects more of a utility player but he needs to the reps to try and make the improvements required to be a full time player in the majors. The tools are there but the track record of success isn't.

Luis Santos or Leonel Campos or Cesar Valdez? If you can only keep one, who shall it be? I like Santos best of all. The Jays still have a decision to make on Bo Schultz.

That is an easy one. Santos has the most upside of the 3 and can start or relieve.

"....The unexpected performance of Luis Santos just makes the 40 man problem more difficult...."

Gerry finds the cloud in the silver lining!   I'd read it more positively.  I'd say the unexpected performance of Santos and Ramirez means that the Jays won't have to spend $9-million on veteran relievers as they did this year (Grilli, Howell, Smith) and can use that money more productively to bolster the offense.

I'm with you, CF.  Good news all around.

Santos is an awesome story and as a guy who bounced around a bunch between orgs without getting much traction in his early years, I could see him emerging as an under the radar guy, but he was the most under the radar guy in Buffalo two weeks ago for a reason - he wasn't called up to audition, he was called up to be an arm - the pitching equivalent of Ian Parmley. 

So while he's my favourite story on the team right now, outside of Carlos Ramirez's shot at matching Hershiser, I don't think we can count our pen as stable yet.  The lefty options are beyond uninspiring, so at the very least, I'm hopeful we add some depth there.  Maybe not 9 million on 3 mediocrities - perhaps one legit Cecil-type, or a bunch of dice rolls - the Angels got tremendous value out of that strategy (Petit, Hernanez, Norris) this year.  But if we take fliers on guys they need to be fliers - neither Latos nor Salty earned their guaranteed contract, they just got handed them.   

Urena will be able to come up next year whenever Travis or Tulo goes to the DL.
I'd still a better backup and rest Tulo and Travis regularly.

Leone is fine, but I think Campos will soon be out of options.

Santos is not as much under the radar as some might think, in no way comparable to Parmalee. His peripherals in Buffalo were quite good actually. Pitchers are often late bloomers and sometimes players do better in the majors than the minors. This would not be the first case. I think he has put himself into the mix and will get a longer look.

Geez, forgot about Grilli being on the team. He sucked in Texas as well, sad end to a nice career (as most end in bad ways).

Wow, Carlos Ramirez is up to 44 2/3 IP without allowing an earned run this year (2 unearned, 1 on April 18th, the other on July 25th so 25 1/3 IP consecutive of no runs in a row). If he keeps it up he has to be protected imo.

This is what every team wants - good battles for making the 40 man roster and ideally losing a player or two as it proves that you have a good selection of talent in your system.

The Jays could have many relievers with options next year and the Buffalo shuttle will get a lot of business.

I was thinking the same Gerry and it could be the same with OF's although a shuttle there may not be necessary but nice to have those options if needed.

True, but they will also have a lot of established relievers.
Tepera, Leone and Koehler will be out of options.
Campos and Schultz too, if they are still around.
Loup has options but can refuse a minor assignment.
If they don't sign an elite reliever that probably leave just 2 shuttle spaces.

PeterG, I don't think Santos' name has been mentioned once outside of the MLU crew describing game action.  He is the ultimate under the radar guy - never ranked as a prospect, never discussed by the box (and we discuss the crap out of minor leaguers) or the FO.  He was an org soldier through and through who got hot at exactly the right time. 

He may be an asset, his numbers are solid and like I said in my post, his past was complex and could mask talent somewhat - but he was exactly as under the radar as Parmley.  If I'm wrong, please point me in the direction of the Santos discussions I missed. 

I think the majority of Jays relievers have been "under the radar guys" who were never perceived as top prospects.  Go back a year before they became regulars -- nobody was touting them as sure-fire prospects or even likely prospects.

Before they established themselves in the majors, nobody was hyping Tepera, Loup, Leone, Biagini or Barnes.   (There was a little bit of hype about Barnes when he started racking up the strikeouts in Buffalo in the last couple months of 2016, but before that he was definitely below the radar -- he was a 35th-round draft choice who was still at the AA level at age 25.)

So I think it's entirely reasonable that pitchers like Santos or Ramirez could establish themselves as regular major-leaguers next year.  There's no guarantees, but it wouldn't be exceptional or unusual if it happened.  It would actually be a typical trajectory. 

The other trajectory -- the dramatic arrival of a highly-touted prospect, like an Osuna -- is actually less typical for a reliever.  And of course nobody was predicting in February 2015 that Osuna was going to be the team's regular closer in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

Jerjapan, I agree with you to a point. I thought the same as you about Santos until I went back and took a closer look at what he had actually done this season.

But he still is not in the Parmley category imo, at least not this year. He has been a surprise and a pleasant one.

John was wondering about Carlos Ramirez. He is 100% on the 40 man imo. He might even be closing by this time next year.

As for the names Scott brought up, Schultz and Campos will be long gone imo and Loup is not a sure thing. I do believe that Koehler will likely be retained.

"I am a big believer in Teoscar and I think he has a Normar Mazara esque 0.260/0.335/0.433 batting line next season with at least league average defence., and maybe a little more power.

Urena is showing why the scouts like him, but he needs to play everyday and start the season in the minors. In my opinion Urena still projects more of a utility player but he needs to the reps to try and make the improvements required to be a full time player in the majors. The tools are there but the track record of success isn't."

Agreed on both counts. Teoscar should be a starting OFer for the Jays next year and barring something unexpected, the OF seems surprisingly set. Pillar, Hernandez, Pearce, and Carrera to start the year with Alford coming up soon after and playing full-time(or starting if he rakes in spring training). The good thing about being a rebuilding/retooling team is that you can just let promising young guys play without worrying about losing a marginal win or two. I'd be fine trading Pillar but I don't think you'd get very much for him so not sure it makes sense.

Urena had a 73 WRC+ in AA this year. He has youth on his side and some good tools but definitely could use more time in the minors.

I'm surprised that Alford wasn't called up. There may not have been many at-bats available for him but even taking batting practice and being around big-leaguers would have been good for his development you would think.

Agreed that Hernandez should start in the OF next season. He will be 25 and has nothing left to prove in the minors. He is as ready as he is going to be.

The one benefit to keeping the Pearce/Zeke LF alignment is that it will be easy to move them to the side if Alford proves to be ready either during ST or some time in mid-2018, but I'd still try to upgrade that spot. Too many good players is a good problem. Not having enough is a bad one. Adding one corner OF and putting Hernandez in the other corner spot would be ideal. I like Pearce, but he should not be starting in LF, for the sake of the team and for his value to the team.

As far as Urena, my guess is he starts in AAA. My hope is that this FO takes the utility IF role seriously this winter and signs/trades for a bench player that can fill in for both Travis and Tulo when they miss time, but Urena will probably be a fallback in that scenario as well.

Luke Maile had a bang-up weekend, and now has his OPS+ up to -3.  He's in a territory now that has happened before for a back-up catcher.  Kevin Cash had an OPS+ of -2 in  2003 and Rich Gedman did the same in 1991.  In more than 100 at-bats, the record for futility by a catcher is from Ben Egan in 1915.  He hit .108/.164/.133 for a -10.    Bill Bergen in 1910 and 1911 had OPS+ of 0 and 1, and had a total of 595 at-bats in those two seasons.  That is probably the record for sustained futility. 

All that said, I like Maile as a back-up catcher.  The club is 18-14 when he gets the start, and I don't think that is an accident. 

John Lott's article today in the Athletic indicates that Aaron Sanchez no longer has a blister problem, but rather a pulley strain of his right middle finger.  Pulley strains are most commonly a rock-climber's injury. 

It's been a rough year for the club in terms of injuries to young players- Sanchez, Travis and Pompey all essentially missed the year. 

Hopefully this callup inspires Urena to put his nose to the grindstone in milb next year. All sorts of talent there.

AA has really been his first stumble in an milb career where he has excelled at every other level while being young for each level. This mlb stint has lessened my worry that he had reached a talent limit with he big jump up to AA, at least, but at the same time has me worried about his discipline and effort levels.

I believe that Luke Maile will return as the Jays back-up catcher next year.

Yeah i don't mind Maile. His glove is legit and i agree that he should probably hit better than he has going forward.

Physically impossible to hit worse.

We have two of the best catching prospects this organization has seen in a while in the minors approached fully seasoned. Maile makes sense to start the year next season but if he is not displaced by July then something has gone terribly wrong (or right I guess).

Here's how the primary roster performed when healthy this year, using a combined WAR pace. per 650pa for hitters, 32gs for SP, and 65ip for RP.


3B Donaldson 5.2
1B Smoak 3.9
C Martin 3.4
CF Pillar 2.9
2B Travis 2.0
SS Tulowitzki 0.0
LF Pearce -0.1
DH Morales -0.5
RF Bautista -0.8

UT Barney -1.8
OF Carrera 0.7
IF Goins -1.2
C Maile -2.9



SP Stroman 4.2
SP Happ 3.4
SP Estrada 2.3
SP Liriano 0.5
SP Sanchez 0.0
(SP Biagini 1.0)

RP Osuna 2.0
RP Smith 1.6
RP Leone 1.5
RP Tepera 0.9
RP Barnes 0.7
RP Loup 0.4
RP Grilli -2.0
(RP Biagini 0.7)

Here's how the primary roster performed when healthy this year

Yes, when healthy. And therein lies a big problem for many on this roster. And I wonder if Josh Donaldson is now entering a new health-challenged phase of his career after an incredible run of good health.

Sad fact: fWAR 2017 - Tulo 0.0, Jose Reyes 1.1.

Tulowitzki presents an interesting projection issue.  From age 25-29, he averaged 445 PAs with a 139 OPS+.  From age 30-32, he averaged 446 PAs with a 96 OPS+ (with of course a particularly bad age 32 season). 

BBRef is literally no help.  The #1 comp is Miguel Tejada who was durable and very consistent.  I ran a Play Index to see if there is any shortstop who had a similar record between age 30 and 32 (OPS+ between 86 and 106 and 1100-1500 PAs) and had been great prior.  The only player who fit the bill was Bad Bill Dahlen. 

I'll guess that the projection systems have him at 430 PAs and an OPS+ of about 100.  We shall see.  It's pretty clear to me that the club needs a backup middle infielder who is capable at both positions and of such quality that 120 games and 450 PAs can be asked of him without hurting the club. 

China fan, I agree with you in theory, but there is under the radar and there is under the radar.  Leone was the most highly touted of the waiver wire / minor league FAs acquired last offseason, and Biagini sparked tons of interest by being claimed in the rule v. 

Minor league nerd that I am, I was following, and at times hyping, all of Tepera, Loup and Barnes as Buffalo shuttle candidates / potential big league relievers.  But Santos was a minor league FA who failed to get out of A ball with two teams for being released by the Royals.  I can't find any articles on the guy prior to his call up, he was never assigned to the AFL (the club often sends relief candidates to the AFL before giving them a look in spring training for the big league pen).  I don't recall him getting mentioned by any Bauxites or alum.  He's just a guy who had three great outings at exactly the right time.

The problem with getting a good back-up infielder is that a player that is actually good will likely want to start. The Jays might have to take a chance that someone who hasn't developed yet and needs a change of scenery can come cheap in a trade. Refsynder was the right idea, but he can't play defense to save his life so it's likely not going to work. Tim Beckham would have been great given what it took to get him, but the O's got him instead. The only player who fits that type of profile that I can think of is Profar from the Rangers. He is out of options next season and wasn't called up in September for them. Still young, has played multiple positions, and still has some upside. With Travis/Tulo here, he would be almost a lock for 400-500 plate appearances even if he comes off the bench. More expensive options would be Josh Harrison types, but they would have to give up something in a trade as well, so that might not be feasible for a FO that wants to hold on to prospects.

eduardo nunez woulda worked.

Profar would work for me.  I wonder what the Rangers would want for him. 

Jerjapan

I looks like Santos has always been a starter.

He started 16 of 22 appearances in 2015, and 22 of 26 in 2016. This year it was 21 of 24 in AAA.

So the fact that he was never heralded on the way up was likely attributable to the fact he was a meh starter.

The Jays seem to be finding starters who they convert to relievers relatively close to the majors. They did it with Biagini, Santos and Koehler.

If they can add a few mph and minimize the fact they may have a lousy third pitch, it can be successful.

Even Santos' starting role has been fluid though.  Just look at the AA rotation - Greene has one relief appearance this year, SRF, Harris and Panone have none.  Santos has had 75 games in the Jays' minors, 22 in relief, 53 in the rotation.   This usage pattern is more org soldier than prospect.  Loads of guys do perform better as relievers - Tepera always had good stuff, but only registered as a potential big leaguer when he transitioned to the pen full time in 2013. 

I'm not saying Santos can't contribute for us, but he's certainly the most surprising guy on the big league roster this September - and perhaps the most interesting, after Ramirez. 

I certainly agree that Santos is the most surprising and interesting call-up. There are 2 numbers from Buffalo that get my attention. He pitched 108.1 innings, mostly as a starter. He gave up only 91 hits and had a whip of 1.25. He should do better as a reliever.

I think it is too soon to think he will be on 40 man but he is a candidate.

There are just a few teams that have very low financial resources. TB, Oakland and Minnesota in the AL. San Diego in the NL. That is my guess.

They would have to build the hard and slow way. Through their farm system. Everyone else will be retooling or rebuilding faster.

It is possible that someone like Texas will not carry a developing player. J Profar is not really that, but he may not be in their plans. He may not believe that he can win a job there. He has failed so far.

Similar to T Hernandez in Houston and D Travis in Detroit.

We did not pay much for them. This is a long shot and probably crazy. Loup for Profar and a C prospect. Loup can refuse a minor league assignment in Toronto. Can he refuse with another club. I don't know the rules.

The same rules would apply. I am not sure the Jays could get Profar for Loup but the idea is good. Loup could be utilized to acquire a depth infielder. Dermody has shown improvement as the year has progressed, so maybe Loup could be made available. It'a also possible the Jays might prefer to trade for a couple of pieces that do not require 40 man protection.

"Profar would work for me. I wonder what the Rangers would want for him."

It will be interesting to see what he is traded for, if he is. They don't have much leverage in that they have Andrus and Odor making significant money up the middle, and Beltre at 3B. Combine that with Profar being out of options, and they really have no place for him unless they move someone. A rebuilding team needing a SS (Padres) makes sense for him, but the Jays could really use someone who can play all over the infield and has some upside. The Jays back-up IF spot is basically an everyday role given how injury prone Travis and Tulo are.

Really interesting article by Jeff Sullivan up at Fangraphs that asks the question if the Clevelands have the best pitching staff ever.  Certainly a bold question to ask, and probably it has a bit of the clickbait to it, but man, modern metrics do paint a fantastic pitcher of Cleveland's pitching staff.  Does anyone have a take on whether or not this is a fair question?  Is this Cleveland staff one of the best ever?

I think Shapiro's tenure in Cleveland is spottier than some do, but the team he helped build looks like a monster going into the playoffs.  They looked good even before this insane win streak, but this is a strong team 1 through 25. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-the-indians-might-have-the-best-pitching-staff-ever/

Profar before the injuries would be great but he's arbitration eligible,only 3 yrs control left & has flubbed 2 auditions in his comeback - that the WC chasing Rangers didn't call him up in Sept. seems to indicate they have thrown in the towel - I don't think it will take much to acquire him.

Marc Hulet has suggested Houston's Tony Kemp (5'6"), though I don't know if he can play a passable SS.

Profar is all about potential upside, because he has no track record of being anything but a Barney/Goins clone offensively at the major league level. Add to that, he's never shown anything more than simply adequate defence either. Pick him up and you'd better hope he finally shows some semblance of putting it all together or that Tulo/Travis stay very healthy.

Nunez can definitely hit and has some speed which this team sorely lacks, but is a butcher at both 2nd and SS.

Someone mentioned Eric Sogard a while back. He'd be perfectly adequate defensively and can hit righthand pitching. He's an upgrade on Goins at least.

I mean i get that we need better IF....but i we're just rebuilding, what's the point of stressing about a backup IF, really?

I mentioned Sogard. 

Profar has no record of major league success, but has hit at every minor league level including a wRC+ of 117 with a K rate under 9% at triple A this year.  He's had 718 PAs in the major leagues- i.e. about the equivalent of one year.  He is now only 24 years old.  Profar, of course, missed 2 key years of development due to his shoulder injury and it is no longer reasonable to believe that he might be a consistently good everyday player.  Personally, I like his chances of putting up a 90-95 wRC+ with pretty good defence at short and second if given 400 PAs.  It's not an upside play-  I don't think that the power he showed early in his minor league career is coming back- which is why he might not be the most valuable commodity. 

I don't see a full rebuild happening with the comments made by Atkins and Shapiro after the trade deadline. They want to keep the attendance up, and keep the team profitable. If you want to be competitive we can't run out the likes and Goins and Barney for 200+ combined games.

I think Profar is a good gamble if he comes cheap. He has average contact skills and an above average walk rate. He has also shown a pretty healthy LD% in the majors.

We did not pay much for them. This is a long shot and probably crazy. Loup for Profar and a C prospect. Loup can refuse a minor league assignment in Toronto. Can he refuse with another club. I don't know the rules.

Loup effectively can't be optioned to the minors without his permission (which the union likely won't allow) ever again, even if traded.

Players with greater than 5 years service time can refuse minor league assignment, forcing you to keep him on the 25-man roster or release him for full pay.

Loup either has to be good enough to make your team or has to be released

.

I would non tender Loup. Lets see what the FO does. Thanks pooks137 and others for giving me the answer.

I'm not saying Santos can't contribute for us, but he's certainly the most surprising guy on the big league roster this September - and perhaps the most interesting, after Ramirez.

The problem as I see it is that the Jays have too many RH middle relief candidates and not enough effective LH relievers or potential swingwan, 6th/7th starter candidates

They will need a few bubble RH relievers with options next year to ride the Buffalo shuttle/26th man spot roster spot next year like Leone did this year and Tepera did last year

But they need a better LH reliever than Loup, someone to fill Cecil's old role. They also need way more SP depth. If Santos has any potential to fill in as a spot starter, than he has real value for next year and a much better chance to survive the winter on the 40-man

This is also why I don't understand the plan to try to convert Koehler to a RH middle reliever. You aren't going to pay him 6 million next year via arbitration to experiment as a middle relief guy. And you already have tons of major league calibre RH middle relievers like Tepera, Barnes, Leone, etc. Koehler has value even if he is a below average SP if he can stay above replacement. But using him as a RP in Sept seems like a waste to me

I would non tender Loup. Lets see what the FO does. Thanks pooks137 and others for giving me the answer.

No worries bpoz

Loup has been so maddingly inconsistent. He was so great for his first three years in the league after coming out of nowhere and not being a prospect, which is why he still has options left that now can't be used.

Then in 2015 and 2016, he became very hittable and homerprone. This year, he has been much better at suppressing homeruns, but now can't get lefties out and has become very wild, walking a batter every second inning at 4.6 BB/9

He's now 3 years removed from being an effective reliever and it looks like he'll never regain his form

Will be interesting to see what the front office does. It will be his final year of club control and will be arb eligible. He'll likely still be pretty cheap, I'd guess he'd be around 2-3 mil in his final arb year. The Jays might sign him to an arb deal and bring him to camp, then consider releasing him for only 1 month's pay if they don't think he'll make the team before Opening Day like they did with Reed Johnson way back when

Montero is my least favorite Jay in some time. I don't think he calls a good game, or receives well, can't throw and isn't hitting. Hope he is not back next year.

Montero is my least favorite Jay in some time. I don't think he calls a good game, or receives well, can't throw and isn't hitting. Hope he is not back next year.

I was against the Montero trade when it happened moreso in the spirit of "what's the point?" even though he was basically free, but didn't think he'd be this bad offensively. Although in the end, it was probably good to have Montero around to play out the year with both Martin and Maile going down. Otherwise it could have been uglier with a whole lot of Raffy Lopez and Mike Ohlman

Funny, I was hoping Montero is gone Wednesday when Schulman mentioned Martin is hopefully going to be available.

Still, the Jays backup catcher job seems to be a curse. The one thing Montero could do was hit, until he got here.

Jays fans are getting their entertainment value tonight.

The kids are playing well again tonight, this makes me happy.

Montero is my least favorite Jay in some time.

Oh, indeed. Refsnyder sets the bar very, very low. Yet Montero still manages to squeeze under it.

"He's now 3 years removed from being an effective reliever and it looks like he'll never regain his form"

People keep saying this and I don't see it.

Loup has been a solid reliever this year.

carrera really is a terrible fielder.

Loup did not fill the role of situational lefty, and left handers hit him to the tune of .298/.372/.393. Was he Jason Grilli bad? No, but he didn't do his job.

I will be interested in seeing what happens to Loup in 2018 and 2019.

If someone gives him an arb valued contract, how well would he have to do to get the same for 2019.

3-4 mil/yr brings him in the Grilli neighborhood.Getting rid of Grilli was not easy.

Baseball is a business. No loyalty.

Loup did not fill the role of situational lefty, and left handers hit him to the tune of .298/.372/.393. Was he Jason Grilli bad? No, but he didn't do his job.

This

Loup's been okay this year. Definitely his best year of his last 3, but still pretty far removed from 2012-2014

The problem seems to lie in that he doesn't have a role with the Jays current bullpen construction. They are going to have a lot of out-of-options relievers next year and flexibility will be an issue. Loup simply isn't a very good LOOGY at present. He's not a long man or multi-inning reliever unless you are desperate in extra innings. He's not good enough to pitch high leverage innings. And the Jays need to find a better LH reliever next year if they hope to be competitive

Loup is cromulent and relatively cheap, but his lack of role, flexibility and effectiveness mean he probabaly can't be in a contender's bullpen

Loup has been getting killed on his Balls in Play in each of the last three seasons (.345, .342, .363). Three years is a long time, but we're still only talking about 432 ABs. We know there's nothing unusual about a hitter getting unusually lucky (or unlucky) over that number of ABs. Opposition hitters hit .278 on their Balls in Play over Loup's first three years (which was also a little weird, just in the other direction.)

Koelhler has been a decent 5th starter for several years. It's not bad to have him around in spring training.
He could rebound.

Agreed on Montero.

Urena has some very interesting tools but I have trouble seeing them being put to good use if the swing and miss in his game comes down a bit. Selective he isn't. Obviously, he has time on his side.

Wow, Matt Dermody's ERA has improved a lot pretty quickly.

Being at 4.86 is pretty respectable after starting off at 135.00 in April

Loup is getting killed on his walks. 4.6 per 9 innings is not good.
A WHIP of 1.6 for a reliever is pretty bad.

It's crazy Caleb Joseph didn't have an RBI last year in 49 games and 141 PAs.

And he still had a better year than Luke Maile's 2017 - OPS+ of 13 to -3, wRC+ 8 to -10

There is almost no way Koehler is tendered a contract this off season. As good as he has played as a Jay he is due a raise on top of his 5.75 mil salary form this season. If he keeps playing well I can a Justin Smoak esque non tender and signed the same day deal however.

There is almost no way Koehler is tendered a contract this off season. As good as he has played as a Jay he is due a raise on top of his 5.75 mil salary form this season. If he keeps playing well I can a Justin Smoak esque non tender and signed the same day deal however.

I still think I'd be nice to see if he could regain his earlier SP form from his past years with the Marlins instead of the 7.00 ERA version this year.

Although it's less upsetting to me now that the Jays rotation is now for the most part healthy except Sanchez, and the Jays aren't giving starts to guys like Bolsinger or Cesar Valdez anymore on a regular basis

The one thing Loup has done well is kept the ball in the yard.

Loup is getting killed on his walks. 4.6 per 9 innings is not good.

It's a more reasoanble 3.78 per 9 if you don't count the ones where the manager said "put the guy on first."

not to mention the ones where the manager says "just don't give him anything to hit", especially those just before a LHH comes up.

Loup's WHIP has increased every year he has been in the big leagues, going from 0.913 in 2012 to 1.139, 1.165, 1.276, 1.326, and finally a very bloated 1.605 this year. That's an alarming and long term trend that I wouldn't want to buy into. I say move on from him.

whip is really not much of a stat, tbh.

WHIP may not be much of a stat, but the numbers Dan Gordon posted certainly tell a compelling story.  Sometimes you don't need the more advanced metrics to get a clear picture of a player - Loup puts too many guys on base, and has been trending worse his entire career.  That's a big mark against him.

WHIP is a great stat. It's the mirror image of OBP for batters, which has a very strong correlation to runs created.

But looking at just OBP isn't very useful, either.

That trendline doesn't really add up - if we look at batted ball type, quality, and distribution, his numbers are eerily in line with his career numbers this year. As are his fip and xfip.

The only thing that seems out of line this year is his babip, and even that seems due mostly to a spike in infield hits, not any spike in linedrive or groundball rate.

That 11% BB percentage is pretty ugly.  His fip and xfip are similar to last year, but I feel there is a pretty clear divide between Loup's first four years and his last two. 

"But looking at just OBP isn't very useful, either"

I didn't say anything about ONLY looking at OBP or WHIP or any single stat. There are copious stats to look at in baseball.

In Loup's case, I agree with jerjapan that he seems to be a very different pitcher than he was. More walks, more hits, and the downtrend is a long one. In his first 2 seasons, he allowed fewer hits than IP and didn't walk many. The next year, he lowered his hits per IP, but at the expense of a big increase in walks. The next year he cut the walks, but allowed more hits than IP. Now he's giving up more hits than IP AND walking a bunch. Says to me that in his first 2 seasons, he was the one in control of AB's more than the hitter - he could throw strikes consistently and get people out because his stuff was good enough. Now, he can't do that any more, he has to nibble more, even so, he's still giving up too many hits, along with the excessive walks.

For the first 3 years of his career, Loup was murder on lefties, which made him very valuable in the pen.
Gibby always made him face lots of right handed hitters, so the general stats didn't reflect that.
Since then, his splits have pretty much disappeared. That doesn't make him useless, but he's not the guy that I want facing the best opponent left  handed hitters in the highest leverage of the game. He's just a middle reliever with average numbers.

Lefties have an OPS of .278 against Dermody and .708 against Mayza.
They both got hit pretty hard by right handed batters.