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The #BlueJays head to Target Field for a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins.




Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 8:10 pm ET  - Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 3.69) vs. Lance Lynn (0-2, 7.71)
Tuesday at 8:10 pm ET - Marco Estrada (2-2, 6.00) vs. Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.33)
Wednesday at 1:10 pm ET - Marcus Stroman (0-3, 8.88) vs. Fernando Romero (MLB debut)

The Twins are hurting right now after losing two of three at home to Cincinnati on the weekend. Before that, they lost eight in a row that included a three-game sweep in Tampa Bay and a four game sweep in the Bronx. They are now 9-14 on the season, 3.5 games back of Cleveland.

The Jays salvaged one against Texas at home. Their 15-12 mark leaves them five games back of Boston.

On Deck - Doubleheader in Cleveland Thursday.
Blue Jays @ Twins - April 30-May 2 | 201 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
dalimon5 - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#357128) #
Donaldson to the LAD by the deadline. Heard it here first.
hypobole - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#357132) #
Don't the LAD have Justin Turner?
cybercavalier - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#357137) #
On Sportsnet, the win-loss records before and after a day in April was used for highlighting the recent slump of the Twins. How can we internet users track a slump of an MLB team? I guess some online tools do that.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#357138) #
As hard as Gurriel has been hitting the ball lately it was kind of fitting he got lucky on the weak infield tapper.
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#357140) #
why are all our SP bad?
hypobole - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#357141) #
Happ has been good. The rest, yeah.
SK in NJ - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#357142) #
Sanchez continues to look like the 2015 SP version. I'm not watching the games so not sure if he's doing anything differently, but it's not good either way.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#357143) #
Whether or not the Jays win any more games this year, Sanchez will be the key. He needs to figure out how to be the Ace he once was regarded as or become another Jack Morris. Both would help this Team immensely.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#357145) #
The Jays need to score at least one run at some time during or after the opponents score in three straight innings, sort of ďsend a messageĒ.
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#357147) #
nice to see some legit good contact from martin tonight.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#357150) #
After watching the Twins shoddy defensive play, I checked FG to see how they compared to us.

FG hates our defence - we rank 29th, with the Twins 14 spots ahead of us. However, DRS has the Jays at +2 Runs Saved, the Twins at -11.

Also noticed an interesting sidenote that exemplifies the clash of old and new metrics. The only team rated worse defensively than the Jays are the the Astros, who's 8 errors committed are the fewest in the majors.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#357151) #
The Jays used to show no quarter to late inning Relievers earlier in the Season. Now itís nice but rare when they do score late.

16 wins for ďAprilĒ, one of the Jaysí better ďAprilsĒ. 16 wins every month will get the Jays 96 Wins for the Season. No reason it canít happen.
Nigel - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#357153) #
I doubt that they are 29th, but I can believe that the Jays are a below average defensive team. My sense is that Father Time has reduced Martin and Pillar to average defenders and that the rest of the line up tonight was made up of below average defenders. The good news being, that when Pearce isn't in LF, there probably aren't any significantly below average defenders in the group either.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 06:57 AM EDT (#357156) #
Is Justin Smoak a below-average defender ? I saw him make a few nice scoops on throws the last couple of games. I don't know where his fielding ranks though.
scottt - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#357157) #
Smoak doesn't have a lot of range, but he scoops the balls in the dirt very well. He's tall enough and he has good reach, so he usually snares what 's hit to him.

Now, that was probably the worst defense I've seen at the major level. And Lynn walked a ton. It shouldn't have been a close game. Sanchez didn't have enough control to strike hitters out.

I still love Gurriel's hustle. He sees a lot of pitches and as long as can get those infield hits, he could be a leadoff option. The power should come eventually.

Do the Dodgers trade for Machado now or do they wait until another team enters the bid?
He would cost at least 2 good pitching prospects.

scottt - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#357158) #
So, we're getting the Twins' top pitching prospect on Wednesday.
Good arm that tops at 98mph, decent slider, average changeup.
Stroman better figures something out.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#357160) #
Sickels on Wednesday's debut starter:
Fernando Romero, RHP, Grade B: Age 22; solid season in Double-A with 3.53 ERA, 120/45 K/BB in 125 innings, a mere four homers allowed; campaign ended on a down note with poor pitching in August (8.38 ERA) punctuated by a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder impingement; status unclear at the moment; when healthy combination of plus stuff and command could make him number three starter or impressive power reliever.

And KLaw:
His 2017 season was yet another step forward for the six-foot right-hander, who can show two plus pitches now with the makings of a third.

He has hit 99 mph and pitches with a grade 60 fastball and plus sink, generating ground ball rates over 50 percent in every full-season league he has pitched. He pairs it with a hammer slider that's plus when he hits it and generates swings and misses. His changeup is behind the other two pitches, but projects to be plus in time.

Romero is on the smaller side, and he did miss two starts at the end of the year with a minor shoulder injury, so durability will be a concern. But the upside here is exciting, and he doesn't have a ton of ground to cover to be at least a mid-rotation starter in the majors.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#357169) #
Im looking through the average exit velocity leaders so far this season and Teoscar is now 7th in the league with an average exit velocity of 96.4 mph, and that is with a much better contact rate than many of the other leaders. At this point Teoscar is making more consistent hard contact than pretty much anybody in the league outside of Nelson Cruz.

Looking through other leaders and Luke Maile is 15th at 95.0 mph. I wonder if something legitimately has changed in that he can hit the ball harder or is it just small sample sizes.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#357170) #
Smoak is indeed a very adept scooper/stretcher, but his range appears to be pretty limited.

I don't quite understand why Smoak was holding on the runner in the 9th inning last night. Is maintaining the option for a force at second base really worth keeping the 1B on the bag prior to the pitch? I'd prefer to see the defensive positioning being maximized based on the hitter's spray charts. Perhaps the guy at the plate was a dead pull hitter and Smoak would've been guarding the line pretty closely anyway.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#357173) #
Aaron Sanchez has made 6 Starts pitching 37.2 innings. Thatís roughly 6.28, call it 6.0 innings per start. Thatís acceptable. He averages approximately 1.14 hits per inning, 0.45 walks per inning and .66 strikeouts per inning. Thatís acceptable. Heís given up 3 HRs and hit 5 batters, which indicates minor control issues. Thatís acceptable, and heís 2-2.

On the other hand, the Team has had 206 ABs during his Starts. Thatís roughly 34.33, call it 34 ABs per start (5.618 ABs per inning). Thatís about normal for a nine inning game fir the Jays. They average 1.067 hits per inning, .451 walks per inning but strikeout 1.364 times per inning. These number should/must improve. The Jays have hit just 9 Doubles and 5 HR in his Starts. The Jays are 2-4 when he starts, and thatís not good enough.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#357174) #
A WHIP of 1.35 is average to below average, he needs to be better.
pubster - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#357177) #
"0.45 walks per inning and .66 strikeouts per inning. Thatís acceptable."

a 2:3 walk to strikeout ratio is pretty bad.

100 innings pitched
45 bbs
66 ks

Not good.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#357179) #
Marco Estrada struggled in his last two Starts, yet he was 1-1. Thatís indicative of what? Marco Estrada made 5 Starts pitching 27.0 innings. Thatís roughly 5.4, call it 5.33 innings per start. Thatís a bit low. He averages 1.11 hits per inning, .333 walks per inning and .926 strikeouts per inning. Thatís acceptable. He hasnít hit anyone, yet heís given up 7 HRs. Thatís too many balls leaving the yard. Still, heís 2-2.

On the other hand, the Jays had 168 ABs his Starts. Thatís 33.6, call it it 34 ABs per start (6.22 ABs per inning). The Jays average 1.407 hits per inning, .963 walks per inning but 1.428 strikeouts per inning. The Jays have hit 7 Doubles, 1 Triple and 8 HRs in his Starts. The Jays are a reasonable 3-2 when he starts.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#357182) #
Marcus Stroman last two Starts were his worst this year. He has made 5 Starts pitching 25.33 innings. Thatís roughly 5.066, call it 5.0 innings per start. Thatís very poor. He averages 1.224 hits per inning, .592 walks per inning and .987 strikeouts per inning. Heís hit no one and given up 3 HRs, yet heís 0-3.

On the other hand, the Jays had 165 ABs during his 5 Starts which works out to be exactly 33 ABs per start. They average 1.382 hits per inning, .592 walks per inning and 1.382 strikeouts per inning. The Jays have hit 9 Doubles, 1 Triple and 3 HRs in his Starts. They are 2-3 in his Starts.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#357183) #
Looking at those Target Field Statues of Puckett/Carew - 12 yrs each as Twins and Killebrew 21 yrs(he followed the franchise from Washington) got me thinking -

Which current Toronto Blue Jays player has the longest streak of being a Toronto Blue Jays player?

The answer is sad.

Waveburner - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#357184) #
Is it Justin Smoak?
snowman - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#357186) #
I thought it was already Aaron Loup a couple years ago, so it must still be him. And yes, that is indeed sad!
snowman - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#357187) #
Actually, Bautista would have been there longer, so maybe Loup was just the longest-tenured pitcher at that point? Or my memory is just completely wrong.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#357188) #
Loup has been optioned to Buffalo and even went down after being DFA'd, so he's lost his 25 man spot on a few occasions.

Kevin Pillar was recalled August 2014 and has kept his 25 man spot since. He has the longest current streak of just over 3 years.


John Northey - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#357190) #
Stroman was DL'ed for a lot of 2015 and had 2 rehab starts, but if you don't count that against him he has been up since May 2014. 
Sanchez also had some rehab starts in the minors (2017) but I think otherwise has been up non-stop since July 2014.

Yeah, not much long term here right now, but pre-2015 the team was .. blah for lack of a better term.  So I'm good with not keeping that history.  Hopefully someone on the team now will still be there in 2025.

Four Seamer - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#357193) #
Hopefully someone on the team now will still be there in 2025. Who would you place in this category, John? I can't think of a single position player currently on the team, apart maybe from Hernandez, that I would envision still contributing meaningfully to a contending team seven years from now. Among the pitchers, I suppose Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna might still be productive, but the likelihood of more than one of them crossing that bar seven years on seems remote, and if it's Osuna, I wouldn't want to be paying free agent rates for a closer.
scottt - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#357195) #
Donaldson and Tulo have crushed today's starter, Gibson.
Morales has never been good against him.

So we're going with Pearce at DH and Maile behind the plate.

Chuck - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#357196) #
Pearce scratched. Morales will DH.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#357197) #
Donaldson is playing third base for Dunedin tonight. He's 2-2.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#357199) #
Donaldson finished 2-2 with a walk. He made some plays in the field and also made an error, fielding not throwing.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#357200) #
With the Pearce/Granderson platoon working out so well, and Pillar not being a black hole, we might not see Alford for awhile unless there's an injury. I amend my "we'll see him by mid-May prediction.
cybercavalier - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#357202) #
With the Pearce/Granderson platoon working out so well, and Pillar not being a black hole (Petey Baseball May 01 2018 09:44 PM EDT #357200)
A few observations from Statcast's sprint speed. Firstly, a couple guys have had tiny ticks up from their best last year: Solarte (25.2 ft/s up from 24.7), shockingly Morales (24.0 from 23.5), Pillar (28.0 from 27.8), Martin (25.6 from 25.5) and Granderson (27.0 from 26.9). Smoak, Maile, Hernandez, and Diaz are all right on or just a fraction off of last year's bests. Grichuk is down to 28.0 from 28.4 - but perhaps he hasn't had opportunities to have his best speed on the bases much. Pearce is at 25.7 from 26.9 (I'm surprised he was that high last year), Travis is down at 26.0 from 27.4 - perhaps his knees aren't quite where they need to be, but he hasn't been on base much either; and most concerning to me, Donaldson has topped out at 24.0, down from 26.4. I suspect it's more than just his shoulder that was troubling him early this season. (GabrielSyme - April 26 2018 @ 10:59 PM EDT #357001)
MLB.com Jays' batters sortable stats.

Given all the above, is it about time to shuffle the batting order so that better performer hit in the middle of the order? Hitters who get on base regularly hit at the top. The rest fill in the remaining slots.

versus RHSP
3B Solarte
RF T. Hernandez
LF Granderson vs RHSP
1B Smoak vs RHSP
CF Pillar
DH Morales
2B Gurriel Jr.
C Maille
SS Diaz

versus LHSP
3B Solarte
RF T. Hernandez
DH Smoak
1B Pearce
CF Pillar
LF Granderson
C Martin
2B Gurriel Jr.
SS Diaz

Postscript: plus a better bench including some veterans who outperforms his teammate this Triple-A season. For example, 3B, 2B, LF, RF, CF, SS aged 29 Ty Kelly from Mets' Triple-A team in Las Vegas.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#357203) #
Bad decision bringing in Estrada for the sixth? Remove him after the 5th, he cannot lose the game and he feels like a success. Itís all about the future.
pooks137 - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#357204) #

Bad decision bringing in Estrada for the sixth? Remove him after the 5th, he cannot lose the game and he feels like a success. Itís all about the future.

I was surprised too. However, the Jays play 3 games over the next 48 hours and no off day until next Monday. That's what is in your near future.

You also have a bullpen full of one-inning relievers, no long man, a whole bunch of starters barely able to get through five innings, a whole bunch of overworked relievers like Loup and some pretty shaky ones lately like Barnes.

Estrada also cruised through the two prior innings. I like the choice to try to squeeze another 3 outs out of your starter, but this time it didn't work out.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#357205) #
Twins putting on another defensive clinic.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#357207) #
Kendrys Morales with a Stolen Base?
Cracka - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#357208) #
I actually feel sorry for Paul Molitor - he must be embarrassed by this. The Morales stolen base was a little league play - he actually hesitated between 1st and 2nd trying to draw a throw before reluctantly taking the stolen base.

Diaz somehow got credit for an infield single on a play that Petit made two errors (didn't catch it, threw it in the dirt to third).

And Tyler Clippard is now tied for the AL lead with 4 wins.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#357209) #
That was a great Little League display from the Twins that inning.
dan gordon - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#357210) #
Morales' 2 HR's, single and 2 walks takes his slash line from .160/.259/.240/.499 to .208/.317/.396/.713
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#357211) #
The pen pitched 5 with 1 hit no runs or walks and 3 k's. Nice bit of work.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#357212) #
The bullpen made mostly of reclamation projects has been a nice surprise so far. Wish the starters were holding up their end.

The Twins practically gave these last two games to the Jays, but wins are wins, especially with Donaldson out.
scottt - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#357213) #
I guess they threw Morales a couple of fastballs.

I do give Morales credit for stealing second.

Seems like we're getting screwed on the review calls way too often.
I'm getting curious about who are the guys doing those reviews and why they are so inconsistent.
This lack of consistency adds several minutes to every game.
scottt - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#357214) #
Wins are wins and the Red Sox are now 4 and 6 in their last 10. I guess they're not as good without Betts.


Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#357215) #
The Jays win when they are good, they win when they are lucky and they win with a little of both. Now if they can win being neither.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#357216) #
Mayís usually the month for the Jays first long winning streak isnít it?
scottt - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#357217) #
It's not like they just signed 3 vets out of the blue. They brought several of them and kept the best 3.
Alburquerque and Petricka are pitching for Buffalo and doing OK so far.
Gaviglio is still on the 40 roster and seems to be doing well too.

scottt - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#357218) #
Except the first 2 batters due up were guys who had hammered him in the past.

All in all, it worked out.  If a starter wants to pile up wins, he needs to last 7 innings.

I'm just hoping Stroman can be at least as good as Estrada was.

85bluejay - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#357219) #
Given Joe Biagini's lackluster performance so far this year, I wonder if the Jays may give Thursday's DH start to Sam Gaviglio instead - He's been hit hard in previous ML auditions but I would start him on Thursday over Biagini - at least you'd be sending a message to Biagini.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#357221) #
The Jays will give Biagini more time to figure it out (just makes sense, given how well the bullpen has thrown and the depth at AAA) but the sample size of him being a pretty lousy starter is growing. I hope he is back in the big league 'pen where he belongs soon.
scottt - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 07:16 AM EDT (#357223) #
Biagini is the one lined up to pitch tomorrow. Mind you, Cleveland will also bring up a AAA starter for the extra game, a guy who only pitched 3.2 innings of relief in 2016 and got hit pretty hard.
Parker - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#357225) #
Morales is outhitting Encarnacion this year. ;)
Magpie - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#357226) #
Morales is outhitting Encarnacion this year.

Well, he is younger. And cheaper!

Maybe we should just enjoy the moment...
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#357227) #
Pillar's had hot starts before, but I'm pretty sure this is his hottest start ever - probably his hottest stretch ever tbh. And while his .350babip is too high and will come down, it's not the sole driver of his success like it has been in hot streaks of the pass. The key to this start this year has been his power, with a .269iso. And that's supported by his 31.5% linedrive rate and 36% hard / 12% soft contact rates.

And to my eye he's looked much better in the field this year than last year too, though there have been some miscommunications with his new corner OF.
mathesond - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#357228) #
Morales is outhitting Encarnacion this year. ;)

It happens every April...:)
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#357229) #
So our best current lineup based just on this year's small sample:

LF Granderson 82pa, 160wrc+ (.390babip)
RF Hernandez 75pa, 164wrc+ (.333babip)
CF Pillar 119pa, 150wrc+ (.353babip)
2B Solarte 117wrc+, 125wrc+ (.234babip)
DH Pearce 69pa, 124wrc+ (.280babip)
1B Smoak 126pa, 119wrc+ (.311babip)
3B Donaldson 54pa, 118wrc+ (.276babip)
C Martin 77pa, 78wrc+ (.167babip)
SS Diaz 92pa, 50wrc+ (.174babip)

C Maile 46pa, 138wrc+ (.500babip)
DH Morales 63pa, 83wrc+ (.222babip)
IF Gurriel 36pa, 51wrc+ (.259babip)
2B Travis 66pa, 25wrc+ (.190babip)
OF Grichuk 77pa, 20wrc+ (.119babip)

the only truly unsustainably high babips there are Granderson's....and of course Maile's. Pillar and Teoscar's are also high and will come down but not quite as big a deal.

maybe the better news it that all of the guys who have really struggled so far - Martin, Diaz, Travis, Grichuk - are all suffering from sub-.200 babips, which is so low that there's almost certainly a good amount of bad luck in there, even if they aren't making good contact so far.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#357230) #
Well, he is younger.

It's funny how there is "athlete" age and "real world" age. Morales looks all the world like a plodding old man on the field (though admittedly thinner than last year). Yet if he were somehow in my social circle, he'd be a young punk we'd all be teasing.

When David Ortiz was playing, he enjoyed his "old man" Big Papi persona, despite this starting in his early 30s. This act only plays in a universe where employees are only in their 20s and 30s.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#357231) #
In praise of cheap bullpens.....

TOR RP:

50era- (#1 AL, #2 MLB)
82fip- (#4 AL, #7 MLB)
94xfip- (#6 AL, #9 MLB)
2.61wpa (#2 AL, #4 MLB)
1.10wpa/li (#4 AL, #9 MLB)
1.1fwar (#3 AL, #7 MLB)
2.6ra9war (#1 AL, #3 MLB)


Though there is one caveat to these numbers:

95.2ip (#13 AL, #27 MLB)

So while our SP have been poor, they've at least been eating innings so far and keeping the bullpen load light.
pubster - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#357232) #
"Morales is outhitting Encarnacion this year. ;)"

JA Happ is outpitching David Price
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#357235) #
I like this game too!

Happ/Estrada/Garcia: $34m, 17gs, 4.94era, 5.07fip, 0.6war, 1.0war/32
Price: $30m, 6gs, 3.78era, 4.31fip, 0.5war, 2.7war/23

L.Cain: 136wrc+, 1.2war, 6.2war650
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#357239) #
Career:

K.Pillar (29): 2195pa, 89wrc+, 9.3fwar, 13.8bwar, 3.4avg/650
J.Bradley (28): 2068pa, 91wrc+, 9.3war, 10.9bwar, 3.2avg/650

2016-2018

K.Pillar (29): 1335pa, 89wrc+, 5.4fwar, 8.2bwar, 3.3avg/650
J.Bradley (28): 1283pa, 102wrf+, 7.4war, 8.4bwar, 4.0avg/650

2017-2018

K.Pillar (29): 751pa, 95wrc+, 3.1fwar, 4.7bwar, 3.4avg/650
J.Bradley (28): 647pa, 85wrc+, 2.1fwar, 2.9bwar, 2.5avg/650


Kind of funny how differently these two players are generally appreciated.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#357242) #
Arash Madani @ArashMadani
2m
Steve Pearce felt some pain in the rib cage last night after batting practice, so was scratched for precautionary reasons.

He is not in the line-up today with "left oblique tightness."
pubster - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#357244) #
"Kind of funny how differently these two players are generally appreciated."

JBJ has had 2 .830 OPS seasons in his MLB career.

I think Pillar's career best is .713
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#357245) #
true.

that's actually a good lesson in how "seasons" are just arbitrary samples with arbitrary endpoints themselves.

In reality, Bradley just had 2 good half seasons, surrounded by badness/mediocrity.

2013 total: 107pa, 68wrc+
2014 total: 423pa, 46wrc+
2015 total: 255pa, 123wrc+
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#357246) #
true.

that's actually a good lesson in how "seasons" are just arbitrary samples with arbitrary endpoints themselves.

In reality, Bradley just had 2 good half seasons, surrounded by badness/mediocrity.

2013 total: 107pa, 68wrc+
2014 total: 423pa, 46wrc+
2015 total: 255pa, 123wrc+ *****
2016 1st Half: 344pa, 143wrc+ ****
2016 2nd Half: 292pa, 91wrc+
2017 total: 541pa, 90wrc+
2018 total: 106pa, 60wrc+


This comes with a narrative, too - bradley came up with great milb numbers but what boston thought was a flawed swing, so they tried to change his swing, and he was awful. So he went back down, went back to his old swing, and then came up and beat the hell out of the ball in the 2nd half of 2015, and then again to start 2016.....until pitchers adjusted after those ~600pa of great hitting and started exposing those flaws in his swing the red sox were concerned about in the first place.
pubster - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#357247) #
"Bradley just had 2 good half seasons, surrounded by badness/mediocrity."

In 2017 JBJ had an OPS of .853 in the first half. You forgot to count that half season. So at least 3 good half seasons!

50% error.
pubster - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#357248) #
So 3 good half seasons in 3 years.

Why can't he keep it up for the full season?
pubster - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#357250) #
Pillar's best offensive half season was a .724 OPS (min 100 at bats).

He's been very consistent though.

Whereas JBJ has had higher highs and lower lows.

I think what makes JBJ more intriguing is the possibility of avoiding the lows and maintaining the highs (ie. He has a higher ceiling).
Craig B - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#357251) #
It's been a fun year so far!
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#357253) #
good catch pubster.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#357254) #
Having success verses a Pitcher not seen before is sometimes luck, sometimes skill. Seeing as many pitches as possible helps with future ABs.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#357256) #
Blue Jays just gave this kid a career in the Majors, whether or not he was ready for it.
James W - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#357257) #
Surely it had nothing to do with the years of work the young man has put it to get this far. Nope. Instead the Blue Jays charitably decided to not perform today.
mathesond - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#357258) #
Hush James, you're spoiling Richard's narrative.
Nigel - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#357259) #
I like that he hustles and that he seems to have some semblance of strike zone control, but, other than that, I fail to see the appeal in Gurriel. However, listening to the Rogers' broadcast crew you would think he's one of the best prospects in baseball.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#357260) #
That's the outing they needed from Stroman. 
James W - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#357261) #
It's May now, so Edwin hit 3 homers today. How much did that change his WRC+?
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#357262) #
Update: Morales is not outhitting Encarnacio this year.
pubster - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#357263) #
EE is back!
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#357264) #
That was embarrassing. Getting shutout instead of sweeping. Ten batters reach base. The leadoff batter reaches four times. Three runners were in scoring position. Thatís more than enough to score at least one run, if not more. Score in the 2nd and the whole game might change for the Jays.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#357265) #
Update: Morales is not outhitting Encarnacio this year.

I did say we needed to enjoy the moment.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#357266) #
Oh I did.

now I need a cigarette.
grjas - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#357268) #
Good one UO. Needed a laugh after todayís game.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#357269) #
Double-header tomorrow in Cleveland.
Game One:
Garcia, J. (2-2, 5.40 ERA)
Carrasco (4-1, 3.08 ERA)
Game Two:
Biagini (0-0, 4.76 ERA)
Plutko, (0-0, - ó)
If they hit well enough.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#357270) #
Josh Donaldson will rejoin the Jays for the Games Tomorrow!
Jonny German - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:49 AM EDT (#357277) #
For the rest of you wondering what a Plutko is:

26 year old RHP, 11th rounder for Cleveland in 2013. Had success through AA and wasn't bad when he reached AAA in 2016, but stunk at AAA last year. So far this year he's started 5 AAA games and has a tidy 2.35 ERA thanks to a 5.3 H/9 (career 8.3 H/9).

Basically a fringe prospect that stirs up unpleasant memories of Ryan Freaking Merritt. Gotta get to Carrasco in the first game so Cleveland can't bullpen their way through the second game.
Jonny German - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:58 AM EDT (#357278) #
Speaking of Carrasco, the Jays have very little history facing him:
BATTER  	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Kendrys Morales	18	.167	.211	.389
Curtis Grandsn	12	.417	.417	1.000
Kevin Pillar	10	.200	.200	.400
Justin Smoak	8	.125	.222	.125
Josh Donaldson	6	.500	.571	1.500
Russell Martin	3	.000	.000	.000
Steve Pearce	1	.000	.000	.000
Yangerv Solarte	1	.000	.000	.000
85bluejay - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#357279) #
No surprise that the Jays are rushing back Donaldson - When you have a pathetic offense & an underperforming rotation, that's what you do.
Jonny German - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#357281) #
Umm... they're at 5.2 runs/game, which makes them 3rd in the AL and 4th overall.
bpoz - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#357283) #
The Jays are doing well considering the contributions received so far from Tulo, Donaldson, Martin and Stroman.

In their last 10 games, the record is 5-5 for Boston, Houston, Cleveland and LAA. I am optimistic about us.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#357284) #
The Jays were 9-9 without Donaldson. Eight of those 18 games were against the Yankees (4), Red Sox (3) and Indians (1). It could have been a lot worse. Luckily they beat the teams they were supposed to beat for the most part (Rangers series aside).

They can't survive without Donaldson for much longer. They are probably rushing him back based on how quickly he is coming back, but they know his health better than I do.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#357288) #
Donaldson activated, Justin Smoak on paternity leave.  Congratulations to Justin Smoak.  Mayza up as the 26th man for the first game. 

85bluejay - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#357290) #
"but they know his health better than I do"

True, but that didn't prevent them from unwisely having him on the opening day roster when his shoulder clearly wasn't ready.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#357291) #
Offense AL Ranks

5.2runs/gm (#3)
10.2bb% (#2)
22.7k% (#7)
.232avg (#14)
.269babip (#15)
.319obp (#7)
.189iso (#2)
100wrc+ (#8)

Bases Empty: .221babip (#15), 83wrc+ (#14)
Runners On: .333babip (#3), 122wrc+ (#5)

So overall, even without their (by far) best hitter, the team has been average offensively, but with excellent run production thanks to hitting much better with runners on base.

But while they've been "lucky" in terms of run production, they've probably been "unlucky" in overall offense thanks to that league worst babip.

I guess maybe some of that babip might be due to shifts.....but are we actually an especially shift-able Offense? I didn't think so but I guess we might be.

still, though, that babip is likely unsustainably low even if we are an extreme shift lineup.

and again, we've done this mostly without our one elite hitter.
Chuck - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#357292) #
and again, we've done this mostly without our one elite hitter.

What do you mean? Kevin Trout, er Pillar, has been healthy all season!

Mike Green - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#357293) #
Pillar has had quite a career so far- 14 bWAR (for reference, more than Kendrys Morales). Pillar's batting line- .267/.306/.400- is almost exactly what I thought it would be (I get it right occasionally) but I had no clue that he would add as much value as he has with the glove.  Pillar has hit the ball well this year, but he's been somewhat lucky.

BBRef has him at 3rd in the league in WAR this year behind Trout and Manaea, tied with Verlander and Gregorius, and just ahead of Betts.  He's been very good, but not that good!

hypobole - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#357294) #
What do you mean? Kevin Trout, er Pillar, has been healthy all season!

Yeah, Fangraphs has Pillar with 1.4 WAR of our batters 2.7 WAR thus far, so over half. And unlike previous seasons, it's not propped up by defence - FG has his D with negative value
85bluejay - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#357296) #
Remove the 3 games against KC and the jays are at 4.63runs/gm
Mike Green - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#357297) #
The lineup for the first game: Granderson 7, Donaldson 5, Hernandez 9, Solarte 4, Pillar 8, Martin 2, Morales 0, Pearce 3, Gurriel 6.  It's an offence first lineup...

Donaldson has brought the rain before the game even started.  That won't work at all.

bpoz - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#357298) #
I am glad that Bauxites don't believe everything I post. I have been correct a handful of times. 5?

I posted that Biagini would pitch game 2 today. I cannot find any official news as to if he has been recalled. It is his day to pitch I believe. Possibly in Cleveland or Syracuse.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#357300) #
We all can see the stats for this season easily, but sometimes I like to use fangraphs' "Last Calendar Year" split to give us the biggest sample of "Most Recent Performance" and give us a different perspective on what we have. I don't know how it compares in value to other splits but I do like the idea of continuously looking at a rolling sample of the same size with the same endpoints, and think it probably tells us something interesting. (and yes, this gives us some small samples.....but remember, the intent of this is to actually give us bigger samples than we get by looking at just this year's numbers).

Last Calendar Year

LF Grandy: 517pa, 15.5b%/24.2k%, .270bip/.240avg, .268iso, 132wrc+, 4.7w650
3B Josh: 515pa, 15.1b%/21.9k%, .279bip/.264avg, .282iso, 145wrc+, 6.3w650
1B Smoak: 681pa, 12.6b%/20.4k%, .287bip/.267avg, .248iso, 132wrc+, 3.2w650
DH Pearce: 360pa, 8.3b%/16.9k%, .286bip/.270avg, .224iso, 120wrc+, 1.6w650
RF Teoscar: 174pa, 7.5b%/30.5k%, .333bip/.275avg, .331iso, 144wrc+, 4.1w650
2B Travis: 176pa, 1.7b%/22.7k%, .328bip/.273avg, .200iso, 103wrc+, 2.6w650
CF Pillar: 640pa, 5.5b%/15.6k%, .288bip/.261avg, .159iso, 92wrc+, 2.5w650
C Martin: 367pa, 13.4b%/21.8k%, .235bip/.206avg, .165iso, 92wrc+, 2.3w650
SS Tulo: 199pa, 7.0b%/17.1k%, .271bip/.245avg, .130iso, 80wrc+, 0.0w650

UT Kendrys: 565pa, 8.0b%/22.5k%, .276bip/.248avg, .203iso, 99wrc+, -0.5w650
UT Solarte: 522pa, 8.4b%/12.8k%, .241bip/.246avg, .189iso, 97wrc+, 1.4w650
OF Grichuk: 424pa, 6.1b%/30.4k%, .254bip/.213avg, .231iso, 81wrc+, 1.1w650
IF Diaz: 297pa, 5.1b%/15.8k%, .279bip/.248avg, .122iso, 74wrc+, 0.4w650
C Maile: 174pa, 3.4b%/27.6k%, .267bip/.200avg, .091iso, 36wrc+, -0.4w650

(IF Urena: 75pa, 8.0b%/37.3k%, .333bip/.206avg, .103iso, 53wrc+, -1.7w650)
(IF Gurriel: 39pa, 2.6b%/17.9k%, .233bip/.211avg, .079iso, 38wrc+, -1.7w650)
(IF Ngoepe: 69pa, 7.2b%/52.2k%, .333bip/.143avg, .032iso, 3wrc+, -5.7w650)



LH Happ: 28gs, 5.9ip/gs, 24.4k%/7.5b%, 78era-, 83fip-, 86xfip-, 4.0w32
RH Stroman: 34gs, 5.8ip/gs, 19.8k%/8.5b%, 87era-, 94fip-, 84xfip-, 2.8w32
LH Garcia: 27gs, 5.7ip/gs, 21.2k%/9.5b%, 107era-, 101fip-, 92xfip-, 1.7w32
RH Sanchez: 11gs, 5.5ip/gs, 14.2k%/12.0b%, 96era-, 119fip-, 123xfip-, 0.9w32
RH Estrada: 33gs, 5.5ip/gs, 20.6k%/8.9b%, 130era-, 118fip-, 121xfip-, 0.9w32
RH Biagini: 19gs, 4.9ip/gs, 17.7k%/7.9b%, 128era-, 102fip-, 99xfip-, 0.7w32

RH Osuna: 71gms, 69.1ip, 32.1k%/3.7b%, 65era-, 38fip-, 60xfip-, 2.4w65
RH Tepera: 79gms, 78.2ip, 26.4k%/9.1b%, 65era-, 85fip-, 96xfip-, 1.0w65
RH Hwan Oh: 64gms, 58.0ip, 21.9k%/5.5b%, 88era-, 95fip-, 110xfip-, 0.6w65
RH Barnes: 70gms, 73.0ip, 24.1k%/9.4b%, 81era-, 107fip-, 113xfip-, 0.5w65
LH Loup: 74gms, 60.1ip, 23.2k%/8.7b%, 102era-, 82fip-, 90xfip-, 0.4w65
RH Clipp: 72gms, 66.0ip, 26.2k%/13.1b%, 104era-, 108fip-, 115xfip-, 0.2w65
RH Ramirez: 13gms, 17.0ip, 25.0k%/6.7b%, 60era-, 103fip-, 104xfip-, 1.2w65
RH Axford: 35gms, 35.0ip, 21.0k%/13.8b%, 108era-, 103fip-, 110xfip-, -0.1w65
LH Mayza: 21gms, 18.2ip, 33.3k%/5.8b%, 142era-, 67fip-, 56xfip-, -0.2w65


The more I look at our hitting the more encouraged I get. Bullpen too.

But it's getting harder to hope for too much from the rotation. Best case is starting to look like Stro and Sanchez getting back to their 4+ war selves, with Estrada/Garcia being just typical bottom of the rotation fodder.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#357301) #
it's funny that Pearce hits behind Morales.

most interested to see how Gurriel looks at SS. If he can handle it well then it makes him very interesting.

Oh and it seems they called up Dwight Smith and dropped Gift.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#357302) #
I'm disappointed to see that Gibbons has taken the 2 spot from Hernandez, who may well have an important future with the team, to give back to Donaldson, who almost certainly does not. To me it appears as undue deference.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#357303) #
As Mike noted, it's raining in Cleveland, though the pop ramps down quite a bit between 3 and 8 (for now), so it doesn't appear that both halves of the doubleheader scheduled due to rainouts, will itself be rained out. John Lott tweeted that in the rain the PA system is playing "One Fine Morning" by Lighthouse, which he didn't note is a Canadian band.
ayjackson - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#357304) #
You have to look at it from Gibby's perspective; he's given the #3 spot to Hernandez because he believes he's going to be a staple of our team in the future.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#357305) #
I mean, Donaldson is an elite player in baseball, and Gibby already surprisingly stuck Teoscar right at the top of his lineup from the get go....and he's still there now.
Thomas - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#357306) #
This is a lot of hand-wringing about hitting someone who is less than two years removed from a 4th place finish in AL MVP voting and less than three years removed from winning the AL MVP award, and who finished 5th in the AL in OPS last year, hits one spot higher than someone with 260 major league at-bats.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#357307) #
Russ continues with the very hard contact. great to see.

and the jays doing a great job of exploiting carrasco's main weakness - running up his pitch count as he tries to make them chase.
Jevant - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#357308) #
Hear hear.
Jevant - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#357309) #
This is a solid start to the doubleheader - get into the bullpen early and then go to work on the second starter in game 2 with a weakened bullpen.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#357310) #
whoa Lourdes with a Tulo throw from DEEP in the hole. almost got him.
Chuck - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#357311) #
This is a solid start to the doubleheader - get into the bullpen early and then go to work on the second starter in game 2 with a weakened bullpen.

Said the Indians' fan.

uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#357312) #
rotation woes continue.

save us, biagini!
CeeBee - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#357313) #
Garcia should be eating innings in AAA.
CeeBee - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#357314) #
Biagini doesn't make me feel any better about game 2. Starting pitching has pretty much sucked this year
Chuck - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#357315) #
For much of his career, Garcia's success was largely due to keeping the ball in the yard. In his 84 AL innings, he has allowed 14 HR and has issued 36 walks, a dangerous combination.

He has moments where he looks terrific, but things seem too often to go off the rails. The talking heads continue to talk about him stabilizing the 5th spot in the rotation -- and he may eventually do so, who knows? -- but for now, all he's done is consolidate the work of a bunch of lousy 5th starters into one lousy 5th starter.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#357316) #
This is a solid start to the doubleheader - get into the bullpen early and then go to work on the second starter in game 2 with a weakened bullpen.

Baseball seldom cooperates with the counting of unhatched chickens.
SK in NJ - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#357317) #
Garcia had some bad luck in that inning aside from the home run but so far no one aside from Happ has been consistent in the rotation. If that continues, then things can potentially snowball quick.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#357318) #
Welcome back, Josh Donaldson!
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#357319) #
attaboy axford.

the life on his fastball we saw in training camp hasn't gone anywhere yet.
Cracka - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#357320) #
It doesn't matter what team it is, or what the score is... I always feel a little sick to my stomach after seeing a pitcher suffer an obvious arm injury. Wishing Nick Goody a full & speedy recovery.
hypobole - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#357321) #
Much maligned Axford with some much needed multi-inning work.

Pearce with his monthly injury. :(
vw_fan17 - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#357322) #
This seems like it's going to be a "last man standing" kind of day. Both teams will probably be worn out for a few days.
Thomas - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#357323) #
I can't believe Gibbons had the audacity to hit Donaldson in the 2-spot.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#357324) #
Ax'n'Clip?
vw_fan17 - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#357326) #
Offense-first lineup seems to have worked.. Here's hoping we can hold 'em to 3 or less..
vw_fan17 - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#357327) #
I guess because Osuna was warmed up? I would have left Mayza in..
Mike Green - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#357328) #
Had 'email all the way. h/t Magpie.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#357329) #
Had 'em all the way. No email.
bpoz - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#357330) #
The pen is thin for game 2.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#357331) #
Oh My God WOW!!!!! Nice recovery!!!
Are they actually playing Game 2?
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#357332) #
Pearce to the DL with oblique strain, Barnes optioned, Luis Santos and Biagini recalled.
bpoz - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#357333) #
Good additions. But Who is on 1st?
Gerry - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#357334) #
I was going to post, about an hour ago, that Barnes was on thin ice. He was the only original member of the bullpen with options and his pitching this year was short of last year. In other words a typical reliever.

Given the shortage in the pen he was an option to go down. Santos was obviously called up yesterday so one of Mayza, Ramirez or Barnes were going down after that game. Barnes signed his own demotion papers with his performance in game one.
Gerry - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#357335) #
Gift Ngoepe off the 40 man to make room for Santos.
bpoz - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#357336) #
Jays ahead 1-0.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#357337) #
The first five Jays had 5-8 pitches to look at from a brand new Pitcher. The next two had five total. Tired or careless?
dalimon5 - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#357338) #
Where can I watch this baseball game?
Gerry - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#357339) #
Sportsnet 360, wherever that is, 503 on my TV.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#357340) #
biagini's approaching 600 pro innings of starting pitching here at age 28.

not sure more milb time is going to turn him into an mlb starter.
StephenT - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#357341) #
Tim Mayza is the "26th man" for the doubleheader (not Biagini, according to Wilner on the radio earlier tonight).

You cannot switch the "26th man" between games (according to https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/26th_Man_Rule ).

If I understand right, if both Mayza and Biagini are optioned after tonight, the "10-day clock" would only be reset for Biagini, not Mayza.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#357342) #
When Joe Biagini made his start today, he had to know he had to eat innings. Instead he turns it into a cluster-effing disiaster instead. Makes me wonder about his mind set, what heís thinking.

I thought he could become an effective Starter. Now he must prove he can be. Might be better to try someone else next time calling up a Starter.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#357343) #
I think Joe Biagini, Tim Mayza, Luis Santos and Carlos Ramirez might get sent down for fresher arms, although Iím not sure who might come up.

At least the Jays split the Double header. A little more sign of life in the second game would be nice.
85bluejay - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#357344) #
As I mentioned yesterday, I would have given today's start to Sam Gaviglio instead of Biagini - next time the Jays need an extra starter I'm hoping they consider Gaviglio/McGuire/Guerreri etc. rather than just hand it to Biagini who hasn't impressed since his rookie season and who doesn't seem to be taking a step forward.
uglyone - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#357346) #
but they've made such a big deal about turning biagini into a starter when he was one of their best relievers - and had to fight a bit with ribbons over it - I don't see how they don't keep giving him every spot start available.
Chuck - Thursday, May 03 2018 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#357347) #
Boy, Beliveau is some kind of terrible.
SK in NJ - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#357349) #
I trust the FO's judgment on Biagini as a SP. If they feel he's capable of being one, then give him an opportunity to work on it. If it fails, then the pen is always available for him. So far, the returns on him as a SP are definitely poor, though. I don't think I trust anyone in AAA to start big league games right now.

It would be nice if SRF becomes an option later in the year. Or Borucki starts to figure things out in AAA.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#357350) #
One point, if Biaginiís 2nd Start was as good as his 1st Start the Jays had enough offense to win provided the Bullpen doesnít suck.
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#357351) #
On teoscar, on Grichuk, on smoak, and on the jays and their hard-contact ways:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/turning-smoak-into-fire-with-hernandez-grichuk/
Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#357352) #
With this pitching staff, I really think that the club should consider an informal tandem start for two of the rotation slots.  At this point, Estrada, Garcia and Biagini are decent for about 50 pitches.  I think that Axford can do that too.  So far, he's maxed out at 25, and I would ease him into it.

I'd keep the rotation formally as is, but put Estrada and Garcia on a 50 pitch limit.  Estrada would be followed by Axford every time for 30 pitches the first time and then moving him from there.  Garcia would be followed by Biagini. Axford and Biagini might get a couple of batters in between long appearances to keep them on a long reliever's workload.  Biagini takes Carlos Ramirez' spot on the 25 man.  With Estrada/Axford, you get the benefit of the heat difference, and with Garcia/Biagini, you can get more platoon advantages working for you. 

Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#357353) #
Once Smoak returns, I really hope that we don't see Morales' name in the lineup against RHP.  Solarte is a better hitter at this point, and certainly so vs. RHP.  Solarte is not much of a defender though and suitable for occasional use at second base and third base (when Donaldson DHs to give him a rest). 
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#357354) #
Mike, I don't see a tandem arrangement working in real time. It's one thing to look back and say that Garcia failed after 3 or 4, and Biagini the same thing, but what do you do if they're sailing? Seriously. It's pretty hard to take out a starter after 4 innings of shutout ball with a low pitch count to roll the dice with someone else.
85bluejay - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#357355) #
Quality starting pitching is very expensive to acquire via trade/signing and the weakest link in the Jays system - so I don't have a problem with the attempt to convert Biagini into a starter - he could well become Daniel Bard like and be finished but with 3 potential rotation spots for next year and team likely to spend less, it's a understandable gamble - relievers are very fungible.
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#357356) #
relievers are so fungible that you can even pick up mediocre mid-20s AA SP and turn them into good MLB RP.
Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#357357) #
CBDC, it's a career pattern with Garcia and with Estrada and becoming more visible with age.   Garcia has been a good pitcher through 50 pitches over his career and a lousy one after 50 pitches.  Same with Estrada.  It's all about changing mindset- yes, Garcia and Estrada might have it on one particular day but on balance you will do better if you get them out of there before things blow up.  Branch Rickey used to say that it's better to trade a pitcher one year too early rather than one year too late, and I think the same logic applies to getting them out of games when they are on the margins and you know that historically they are not likely to be effective on average.  
85bluejay - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#357358) #
How about that David Price!!!
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#357359) #
Updated R/L splits, 2016-2018:

vRHP

LF Granderson 965pa, 122wrc+
3B Donaldson 983pa, 150wrc+
1B Smoak 825pa, 114wrc+
RF Hernandez 199pa, 125wrc+
SS Diaz 640pa, 119wrc+
2B Solarte 794pa, 118wrc+
DH Pearce 484pa, 109wrc+
C Martin 759pa, 102wrc+
CF Grichuk 725pa, 93wrc+

IF Tulowitzki 613pa, 101wrc+
IF Travis 544pa, 99wrc+
DH Morales 949pa, 82wrc+
OF Pillar 1008pa, 80wrc+
C Maile 217pa, 40wrc+


vLHP

LF Pearce 238pa, 133wrc+
3B Donaldson 278pa, 161wrc+
1B Smoak 283pa, 128wrc+
DH Morales 354pa, 150wrc+
RF Hernandez 98pa, 109wrc+
CF Pillar 342pa, 118wrc+
2B Solarte 293pa, 89wrc+
C Martin 228pa, 84wrc+
SS Tulowitzki 191pa, 75wrc+

OF Grichuk 272pa, 91wrc+
OF Granderson 287pa, 87wrc+
IF Travis 151pa, 86wrc+
IF Diaz 223pa, 68wrc+
C Maile 96pa, 59wrc+




2017-2018

vRHP

LF Grandy 122
3B Donaldson 142
1B Smoak 120
RF Hernandez 157
2B Solarte 116
DH Pearce 102
C Martin 102
SS Tulowitzki 98
CF Grichuk 88

IF Diaz 88
OF Pillar 81
DH Morales 73
IF Travis 57
C Maile 30


v LHP

CF Pillar 140
3B Donaldson 177
1B Smoak 158
DH Morales 153
2B Travis 139
LF Pearce 105
RF Hernandez 83
C Martin 73
SS Diaz 32

IF Solarte 79
OF Grandy 76
OF Grichuk 67
C Maile 46
SS Tulo 23

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#357360) #
Mike, I think everyone would say what Branch said about better too early than too late. I don't recall Branch saying though that his manager should be 'short starting' his pitchers who do better in their first 50 pitches than their next 50, or the first time through the order vs. the second or third, because that profile would capture a whole lot of pitchers. It would be great if some of our numerous relievers were also nascent starters ready to come in and throw three or four solid innings, but since Jimmy Key and Mario Soto I can't remember a lot of relievers who fit that profile. So it would seem to me that a lot of time at least, it would be a question of switching out the one risk for another. The other thing I wonder is where the pitchers are going to come from. If the ones you mention were 'tandemed' in some order, like Estrada/Axford and Garcia/Biagini for example, does the team go with two less regular relievers in the pen? Is Gibbons going from his preferred 8 relievers down to 6? Or does he get to keep 8 relievers in addition to the tandem starters and the bench is further reduced?
92-93 - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#357361) #
"Santos was obviously called up yesterday so one of Mayza, Ramirez or Barnes were going down after that game."

Mayza was the 26th man for the doubleheader so he wasn't going down. Unless they planned on demoting Smith and rolling with a 2 man bench for a game, the reliever being optioned down was going to open up a spot for Biagini. Santos was probably around only in case of emergency, and when Pearce hit the DL it became easier to add him.

Perhaps the people on this site that constantly express surprise when Pearce is not in the lineup will finally realize that he simply cannot play everyday, and that if you try to overdo it you are increasing the likelihood he suffers an injury. This is not the first time he got injured merely swinging the bat, so using him at the DH everyday doesn't help either. His playing time must be managed judiciously to maximize his value.

Hopefully we see two new relievers join the team for Ramirez and Santos today. Gaviglio and Guerrieri aren't options based on recent workload, so that leaves only Borucki from the 40-man, and he's only available if today was his throw-day.
pubster - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#357362) #
"How about that David Price!!!"

Only 4.5+ seasons left for over $142 Million!
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#357363) #
"Perhaps the people on this site that constantly express surprise when Pearce is not in the lineup will finally realize that he simply cannot play everyday, and that if you try to overdo it you are increasing the likelihood he suffers an injury"

what's the evidence that resting him keeps him healthy?

mathesond - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#357364) #
Has he ever been injured while resting?
pubster - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#357365) #
"what's the evidence that resting him keeps him healthy?"

There's a lot of evidence that resting reduces likelyhood to get injured.

For example if Pearce played 5 games a season, he might go his entire career without an injury.
Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#357366) #
CBDC, the goal is to get 7 innings from your tandems and 6-7 from the other three starters.  You can run with a six man pen, and get the odd inning out of the back-half of the tandems.  In my view, it's better than running out Garcia and Estrada who give you 3 good innings and then somewhere in the 4th or 5th inning, you begin with a parade of relievers for 1 inning. 

I am not saying that tandems are for every team and every pitching staff.  I do think that if you try to get another 130 innings from each of Estrada or Garcia, you'll get 90 innings of pretty decent pitching and 40 innings of pretty horrible pitching from each. 

uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#357367) #
"Has he ever been injured while resting?"

didn't that just happen?
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#357369) #
Bautista's getting the callup today.

godspeed.
92-93 - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#357370) #
No, it did not. Pearce experienced tightness in his ribcage during batting practice after playing 6 days straight, 5 of them starts.
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#357371) #
hmm, let's go to the tape!
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#357372) #
The Tape

APR 13 - PH DH in 7th inning
APR 14 - DNP
APR 15 - DNP
APR 16 - DNP
APR 17 - DH until 6th inning
APR 17 - whole game at 1B
APR 18 - DNP
APR 19 - whole game at DH
APR 20 - DNP
APR 21 - whole game at 1B
APR 22 - DNP
APR 23 - DNP
APR 24 - DH whole game
APR 25 - LF until 7th
APR 26 - DH until 7th
APR 27 - LF all game
APR 28 - PH LF in the 8th
APR 29 - DH all game
APR 30 - DNP
MAY 1 - tweaks oblique in batting practice


Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#357373) #
I will agree that it is not a good idea to send Pearce to the outfield.  He doesn't have the range or flexibility for the position, and he is more likely to suffer injury.  Tampa kept him out of the outfield for the first half of 2016. He played 60 games and had 232 PAs through the end of July and hit .309/.388/.520 (2.2 WAR at that point).  He did strain a hamstring in June of that year and just missed the 15 days.  At the deadline, the Rays sent him to the O's who moved him to the outfield- that did not go well. 
85bluejay - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#357374) #
Very happy that Jose Bautista is getting a final shot - hope he does well, though that might scuttle a Donaldson acquisition come July.
Gerry - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#357376) #
Rumours around that Pompey is getting called up.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#357377) #
With Pearce out, calling up Pompey makes sense. Alford is performing poorly at AAA.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#357378) #
Here's hoping they let Pompey get an extended run in LF with Grandson/Morales platooning at DH. He's not been hitting that well in AAA, but it'll be nice to see him up here in the bigs again.
Magpie - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#357379) #
Bautista's getting the callup today.

He wants to say thank you to Toronto first.
uglyone - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#357380) #
I wanted pompey to get a longer healthy run in AAA for a bit but i'm glad he's getting a chance. Hopefully he doesn't get lackadaisical in the OF again.
Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#357381) #
The link is a 404, Magpie.  Is it a Youtube bat flip kind of thank you?

If Pompey is getting the call, it is probably as a 4th outfielder.

Magpie - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#357382) #
Gerry - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#357383) #
Pompey, Urena and Petrika up. Looks like Smith and Santos going down.
Gerry - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#357384) #
Carlos Ramirez down too. Petricka needs another move to the 40 man.
Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#357385) #
Thanks for posting that, Magpie. 

I guess the club is not satisfied that Gurriel can play shortstop.  Otherwise, I don't understand why Urena is coming up. 



ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#357386) #
Then 40 man move is Santos DFA'ed. Hard to see that after yesterday's good work.
Gerry - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#357387) #
Santos has been DFA'd.

I understand the turnover at the reliever position. I don't understand why you bring up Smith, have him get a couple of hits, then send him down again.
Marc Hulet - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#357388) #
The Urena move, to me, suggestions they don't like Solarte at 2B and want Gurriel there... which then creates a need for additional middle infield depth. I'd have preferred Lopes get a shot but then you create even more 40-man issues with Petricka coming up (who I think is a real sleeper with his firm fastball and ground-ball tendencies).
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#357389) #
I guess the club is not satisfied that Gurriel can play shortstop. Otherwise, I don't understand why Urena is coming up.

I would be surprised if that's the case. I suspect it has more to do with Donaldson returning, which will mean Solarte is now the starting second baseman. I don't think the club is going to let Gurriel ride the pine to replace Solarte in late innings with a lead, and I suspect that role will fall to Urena. That's my guess. Echoing someone else who posted this the other day, I wouldn't mind seeing Lopes get a shot, but it's hard to see him backing up short.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#357390) #
I hadn't seen Marc's post when I wrote mine.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#357391) #
I think there was some question earlier in the week about Pompey's health - he missed some games and I think yesterday was his first day back - which may explain Smith getting the call.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#357392) #
Wow! Mets to DFA Matt Harvey according to mlb.com. Guess going out drinking the night before you play wasn't a plan after all.
Chuck - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#357393) #
Try that again.

Echoing Mike's thanks. Bautista is not your typical athlete. A little more thoughtful, a lot more articulate. Nice essay.

Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#357394) #
If the club is not OK with Solarte at second base as a sub, the Urena move makes sense. 

If you are satisfied with him at second base, it doesn't.  Solarte is your DH/2B or 3B sub.  He gets lots of PAs in a role where his defensive shortcomings are minimized.  FWIW, the metrics (both UZR and DRS) show that Solarte has been about the same at second and third base, and that's what my eyes tell me also.  He's got a slow first step and that affects him at both positions.

I probably wouldn't have made the move to bring Urena up. 

Mike Green - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#357395) #
Today's lineup:
Granderson 7, Donaldson 5, Solarte 0, Hernandez 9, Pillar 8, Morales 3, Gurriel 4, Maile 2, Diaz 6

It's a bit strange that Maile gets the start.  He started the second game of the DH yesterday; there's a 6:10 game on Saturday and a 1:10 game on Sunday.  I would have thought that Maile's game for this series would be one of the Saturday or Sunday games. 

When Smoak comes back, I like this top of the order with Smoak sliding into the 5 slot or you could do Smoak in the 3rd and Solarte in the 5th. 

dan gordon - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#357396) #
I agree about Urena - kind of strange to bring him up. I'm not sure his bat is even ready for AAA, let alone the big leagues.

That's a shame about Matt Harvey. Was looking like a major star a few years back until he ran into injury trouble. Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery has a mixed record of success/failure.

It will be interesting to see what Bautista can do. He just started to get heated up in AAA - his last 4 games saw him go 6 for 15 with a HR, 2B and 2 walks.

I was also hoping to see Pompey get a chance to play steadily in Buffalo for a month or two before getting the call, but I guess the need is there now. The reason he missed a couple of games in Buffalo recently was migraines, and that's why Smith was the one called up initially.
cybercavalier - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#357397) #
About Lopes,

He batted at nth slot
April 9th, 9th
April 10th, 7th
11th, 6th
13th, 7th
20th, 9th
23rd, 8th
24th, 8th
25th, 9th
27th, 9th
28th 2nd,
29th, 2nd
30th, 9th
May1st, 1st
May2nd, 3rd
May3rd, 2nd

He batted well when his slot is at the bottom or top of the order. In other words, Is Lopes is a leadoff material? Therefore, if Lopes is not promoted, why not experiment him to bat in the middle of the order. If Lopes is promoted, whom shall I replace?  Urena is

Gerry - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#357398) #
Gibby has explained Pompey vs Smith. Pompey is replacing Pearce so they needed a RHB to play vs lefties when Granderson sits. Smith is a lefty.
vw_fan17 - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#357399) #
Is the Urena move so that Solarte can DH more with Pearce out and Smoak gone for another couple of days, especially since he got banged up on that slide? I see he's DHing today. So if you have to hit for Gurriel or Diaz late, you have someone that can play the field when Yangervis is already at DH? With the assumption that Travis gets things sorted out, when he comes back, there'd be no place for Solarte other than SS (where he's not a regular), and that'd be a shame, given how he's been hitting so far.

Or is this the beginning of the end for Morales, when Smoak and Pearce are back? If Solarte stays hot and can potentially play 2B/3B (or SS/1B/LF?? in a pinch) for an inning or two, he makes a great DH/utility guy/pinch-hitter (with Pearce playing 2-4 days/week at DH/1B?). Solarte's tied or outhit (based on OPS) Morales the last 2.x years (2016, 2017, 2018). Are they finally going to give up on their failure(s)?

Other notes: hoping Estrada can turn it around. Based on career splits, May is generally his best month (other than September/October with a lot less innings in that sample), and June his worst (due mostly to June 2017?). If he doesn't turn it around in May, we may all be glad we didn't extend him for another year or two.

Hopefully at least one of Stroman/Sanchez gets back to their "nearly best" selves, and maybe we can give Happ a QO at least? If Josh doesn't resign, trade him at the deadline + Alford/Hernandez/similar for a good SP? We seem to have transitioned from "no position players in the minors" to "no pitchers in the minors". We now have, in theory, C + SS + 3B + 1-2 OF spots covered in the minors.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#357400) #
He batted well when his slot is at the bottom or top of the order. In other words, Is Lopes is a leadoff material? Therefore, if Lopes is not promoted, why not experiment him to bat in the middle of the order. If Lopes is promoted, whom shall I replace? Urena is

Google translate?
bpoz - Friday, May 04 2018 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#357401) #
Urena has to out hit Gift IMO.
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