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The two Kevins made sure the #BlueJays affiliates were not shutout in the win column Tuesday.


Rochester 2 Buffalo 1

Joe Biagini gave run single runs in the fourth and fifth innings to take the loss against the Minnesota affiliate. He lasted six frames in which he gave up four hits and three walks. His strikeout total was four and his groundout total was six. Dwight Smith Jr. helped out Biagini by throwing out a runner at home in the fifth from left field. Danny Barnes struck out two of the three men he faced in the seventh. Luis Santos rung up four over two shutout frames of one-hit, one-hit by pitch ball.

Danny Jansen
had two hits while Tim Lopes and Roemon Fields both doubled. Rowdy Tellez walked but Devon Travis was 0-for-4.


Portland 5 New Hampshire 3

The good news is T.J. Zeuch did not leave this one due to injury. His pitching line took a beating though in his Double-A debut. He was torched for five runs (four earned0 on nine hits and a walk by the Red Sox affiliate. He struck out three and produced six outs on the dirt. The bullpen did its part with five innings of shutout relief. Daniel Young struck out three over two frames. Zach Jackson whiffed two and walked one in one inning and Jose Fernandez rung up two over two innings.

Harold Ramirez and Patrick Cantwell had two hits apiece. Max Pentecost doubled and walked. Jonathan Davis, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Connor Panas all picked up singles. Bo Bichette was 0-for-5 with a hat trick. Cavan Biggio was 0-for-4


Bradenton 4 Dunedin 2

The Pirates affiliate handed the D-Jays another loss as they scored four times off Josh DeGraaf over five innings. Two of the runs were unearned but DeGraaf was gonged for a pair of long balls among five hits and two walks. He struck out three and induced five outs on the diamond. William Ouellette pitched 2-2/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball with three strikeouts. Travis Bergen stranded Ouellette's hits with 1-1/3 innings of one-hit ball and two K's.

Eduard Pinto had a perfect night at the plate with two hits and a walk. Riley Adams doubled, walked and drove in both Dunedin runs. Logan Warmoth and Bradley Jones had the other Dunedin safeties.


Lansing 11 Wisconsin 4

The two Kevins did some big time damage in this one. Kevin Smith went 4-for-5 with a double and two runs batted in and Kevin Vicuna collected a double among his three hits and two walks at the top of the order. That gave the Lugnuts a convincing win over the Brewers affiliate in the Cheesehead State. Brock Lundquist doubled twice with an intentional pass and Christian Williams had a two-hit effort. Yeltsin Gudino singled, walked and drove in four runs.

Maverik Buffo was dinged for a solo homer over five innings but yielded just five hits and a walk while whiffing two and inducing five groundball outs for the win. Donnie Sellers gave up two runs over three frames but struck out five and Brody Rodning surrendered an unearned marker in the ninth.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Brock Lundquist, Lansing

2. Kevin Vicuna, Lansing

1. Kevin Smith, Lansing



Linescores
Kevins (Definitely) Save The World | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
dan gordon - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#357604) #
So they demoted Gudino to Lansing, reducing the number of middle infielders at Dunedin. Makes it a bit easier to move Kevin Smith up from Lansing to Dunedin. He sure deserves it based on his play.
Glevin - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 06:21 AM EDT (#357607) #
A few prospect things I'm happy about early on.
-Jansen keeps hitting. It was such an unexpected season last year, it was hard to know for sure who Jansen was but he is the same player and looks like a future regular.
-SRF bouncing back. Jays have had horrible development for their pitchers in the upper minors recently so to see SRF looking great is amazing news.
-Bo and especially Vlad looking amazing
-Kevin Smith. Knew his defense was good but is raking early.
-Biggio also looking like a real prospect now

A few prospect things I'm not happy about early on.
-Tellez seems done as a prospect. It's been about 80 games since he's hit a HR and for his position he needs to be amazing offensively.
-Urena also seems much less interesting than he did a couple of years ago. He just can't seem to hit at all. Very few ABs so far this year but even in A+ ball, he was awful.
-McGuire going backwards. Was hoping that last year's breakout was for real. Right now, doesn't look like it.


A few things I'm not really worried about early
-Alford's slow start. I believe in him if he's healthy.
-Warmoth's slow start. Underlying numbers are better (walk % upm K% down) more worried about fielding.
-Pearson's injury. It's not good obviously, but it isn't a recurring sort of thing.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#357615) #
I like what Vicuna's doing this year as one of the only guys who's actually age-appropriate in Lansing. He'll need to grow some power eventually to be a real prospect but he seems long and lanky enough to think there's legit room for growth there.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#357616) #
Perdomo has been overpowering in his 3 starts in Dunedin, and he goes this morning for the D-Jays.  As a 6'6', 200 lb lefty who is 24 years old, he might come very quickly.  Control has been an issue for him in his minor league career, but so far this season, he's only walked 2 in 13 innings. 
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#357621) #
as one of the only guys who's actually age-appropriate in Lansing.

On what basis do you determine who is 'age appropriate' for Lansing, or alternatively 'age inappropriate'?
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#357625) #
there used to be all sorts of writing on this back in the day. Sickels had a nice sorted list that I can't seem to find right now. But all the new statistical models like KATOH and others show similar types of age for level listing.

for hitting prospects in particular, a "legit prospect" age appropriate levels, imo:

AAA: 23
AA: 22
A+: 21
A: 20
Rk+: 19
Rk: 18

with A- being a weird level mostly for overage college prospects.

any older than that and I put an asterisk on their performance stats....and more asterisks the more years older they are. And of course if they're younger than that then they get extra credit for whatever stats they're putting up.

college prospects in general are playing "catchup" from the day they're drafted - they should get leeway because they have to start somewhere, but at the same time imo they should be expected to accelerate more quickly and catch up to their appropriate level within the first say 2yrs or so.

A guy like Smith, for example, is well on his way to catching up to his age appropriate level - he seems very deserving of a promotion to A+, which is where a 21yr old should be. And in fact, his line in A is so good that we might expect him to be well above average even at his age-appropriate A+ level after his promotion. A guy like Warmoth, though, hasn't shown any signs of catching up to his age appropriate level (AA) yet.

that mostly fits for pitching prospects too, imo, but there's more exceptions for delayed development pitchers than hitters I think.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#357626) #
Sounds reasonable UO.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#357627) #
Here's some age stuff from FG

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/minor-league-leaderboard-context/
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#357630) #
I'd add a year to each of ugly's levels, simply because it is difficult for many college prospects (including "legit prospects") to meet the ages he sets out. Warmoth is not a bad prospect for being in high-A his first full year in organized ball at the age of 22. He's a first-rounder, and his progression is not unusually slow. I think it's more useful to give credit to guys playing older competition than to knock players who are progressing in a pretty typical way.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#357632) #
well, let's look at a (very) brief history of jays 1st round college picks:

In every case the first level listed was their very first stop out of the draft:

I'll go back to the ricciardi years here. And list them in order of MLB bWAR:

T.Zeuch (---): 20 A-/A, 21 A+, 22 A+/AA
L.Warmoth (--): 21 Rk/A-, 22 A+/??
J.Harris (--): 21 A-, 22 A/A+, 23 AA, 24 AA

A.Hill (23.7): 21 A-/A+, 22 AA, 23 AAA/MLB
M.Stroman (9.9): 21 A-/AA, 22 AA, 23 AAA/MLB
R.Romero (9.9): 20 A-/A+, 21 A+/AA, 22 AA, 23 AA/AAA, 24 MLB
B.Cecil (7.6): 20 A-, 21 A+/AA/AAA, 22 AAA/MLB
G.Gross (4.6): 21 A+/AA, 22 AA, 23 AA/AAA, 24 AAA/MLB

J.Arencibia (2.0): 21 A-, 22 A+/AA, 23 AAA, 24 AAA/MLB
C.Jenkins (1.4): 22 A/A+, 23 A+/AA, 24 AA/MLB
D.McGuire (0.2): 22 A+/AA, 23 AA, 24 AA
D.Purcey (0.1): 22 A-, 23 A+/AA, 24 AA/AAA
D.Cooper (0.1): 21 A-/A/A+, 22 AA, 23 AA, 24 AAA/MLB
R.Adams (0.0): 21 A-/A+, 22 A+/AA, 23 AAA/MLB
J.Hoffman (-0.8): 22 A+/AA, 23 AAA/MLB
Z.Jackson (-0.8): 21 A-, 22 A+/AA/AAA, 23 AAA/MLB
A.Woj'ski (-1.4): 21 A-, 22 A+, 23 A+/AA, 24 AA/AAA
T.Magnuson (-0.2): 23 A, 24 A+/AA
M.Pentecost (---): 21 Rk/A-, 22 ---, 23 A/A+, 24 A+


Note 1: Seems pretty clear to me that even for college guys a 22yr old should be excelling in AA at least to be considered a prospect worth hoping on.

Note 2: For the love of all things sacred, stop using 1st rounders on college guys.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#357641) #
Deck McGuire is rolling along with a shutout after 8 innings (and 91 pitches!) as the Bisons lead 7-0.  It's his 2nd impressive outing in a row.  The way the big league rotation is going, he probably needs only one or two more to earn himself a look.   
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#357642) #
Arden Zwelling @ArdenZwelling
1m
John Schneider's tracking Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s exit velocities.

Through 26 games, Guerrero's put more than 30 balls in play at 100+ mph. He's hit 117. One night, he put four balls in play the slowest was 107.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#357644) #
Only 11 out of the top 30 picks in the 2017 amateur draft were out of high school so many clubs don't mind taking college players. Maybe the problem withe Jays picking college players is that they don't get the right ones.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#357648) #
Here's the list of HS position players drafted 1st round by the Jays from 2000 onward.
Miguel Negron
Travis Snider
Justin Jackson
Kevin Ahrens
Dwight Smith jr
Jacob Anderson
Mitch Nay
D J Davis

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#357650) #
I was going to say something like that, hypobole.  Glad you got the list to confirm my memory that the club at least hit with Aaron Hill and they haven't hit at all with high school picks. 
Waveburner - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#357652) #
I don't think I will ever understand why people don't separate compensation round picks and actual first round picks. As if pick #16 and #41 are the same thing?

I mean even if there is relatively little difference in the odds to draft a solid major leaguer, it's very obviously not the same round, since there are only 30 teams and therefore there can only be 30 picks max in the first round.

I get that its just semantics, but I fully do not understand the reasoning that leads to people lumping top 10 picks in the same category as players drafted in picks 30-45 or so. It just seems lazy to me.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#357653) #
I just went through the guys listed on baseballreference.com's "Jays 1st Rounders" page.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#357654) #
Seems pretty clear to me that even for college guys a 22yr old should be excelling in AA at least to be considered a prospect worth hoping on.

Putting aside the small sample of Jays' 1st-rounders (and even smaller sample of successful Jays' 1st-rounders), it's patently not the case that prospect watchers mark down 1st round picks on the basis of starting their first full season in high-A. Nor are 1st-round picks the only "legit prospects" to come from the college ranks, and those who aren't 1st rounders will probably not be assigned as aggressively as 1st-rounders. There are simply too many good college prospects who move more slowly than the timeline you've put forward for it to be useful.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#357655) #
Ditto.

And it's not like picks 1-30 are anywhere equal either. Pick 45 is almost always a lot closer in talent to pick 15 than pick 15 is to top few picks.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#357656) #
"There are simply too many good college prospects who move more slowly than the timeline you've put forward for it to be useful."

well, if we're just going to trade unsupported claims like this, i'll just point out this isn't actually true, that the quick easy random sample i just gave is typical of what we'd see with a larger sample, and leave it at that.
dan gordon - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#357657) #
While age and level are among the most important things to consider when evaluating a prospect, it's important to look at each player as an individual. There are often factors which come in to play in evaluating a particular player, often involving playing time, injury, position switch, and late starts to a career, like with Alford. Also, generalizations about age and level are not going to work for everybody, as people learn, age, mature at different rates and different times. Kevin Pillar, for instance, has carved himself out a good mlb spot, and he was 22 in rookie ball, 23 in A and A+, and 24 in AA and AAA. One thing that I like to see is steady advancement from level to level while maintaining performance. I saw a list similar to uglyone's a few years ago that indicated the MAXIMUM age a player could be at a certain level, and still be considered a prospect. The ages in that list were 2 years older than the ages on uglyone's for each level.

Certainly, the younger a player is for a given performance and level, the greater their future potential is. The average age at which a player reaches a peak is about 27, but it's just an average. Pitchers tend to be harder to predict. Learn a new pitch, tweak a delivery to improve the control, small adjustments like that can have a major impact, and can happen later in a player's development.
Waveburner - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#357658) #
That falls under the definition of lazy to me. But I understand not everyone will agree
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#357660) #
If we live in a world where the only person bothering to provide any researched support is the lazy one in any given discussion, then sure.


Waveburner - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#357661) #
I did not quote you in my initial post.

I was not referring specifically to anyone in this thread, more just something I've noticed that baseball fans like to do. You will never catch a hockey fan referring to pick #40 in a 31 team league as a first round pick.

But you're certainly very talented at being flippant, LOL.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#357662) #
well I switched to nested view to see the post you were replying to.....

but yeah I just needed a quick and dirty randome list and thought I'd look at names we were more familiar with so i just used bref's jays 1st rounders page.

didn't want to get into a fight ab9ut the definition of first rounders.
Waveburner - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#357664) #
Yeah fair enough, I should have clarified better the lazy remark anyways. I was more referring to the site you pulled from too, as they are also lumping together first and compensation round picks. Even though some years that makes the first round 35 picks and others close to 50. Doesn't seem like it should be hard to separate, but no one ever does in baseball.

And frankly, all both lists posted proved (college and hs) is that the Jays have flat out sucked at drafting position players since the start of the 2000's. IFA market as well, they have sucked there. Hope Vladdy/Bo/etc is the beginning of reversing that trend.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#357667) #
Most every baseball site calls picks before the 2nd round 1st round picks. Pearson went 28th, but wasn't technically a first round pick, he was a compensation pick for losing Edwin. Because teams also lose 1st round picks for signing FA's.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, May 09 2018 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#357680) #
Here's the list of HS position players drafted 1st round by the Jays from 2000 onward.
Miguel Negron Travis Snider Justin Jackson Kevin Ahrens Dwight Smith jr Jacob Anderson Mitch Nay D J Davis (hypobole
May 09 2018 @ 04:26 PM EDT)

Checking these names on bbref reveals that SS/2B/OF Jackson R/R, IF/1B Ahrens R/R and LF/RF Anderson R/R are free agents. Earlier this season IF/OF Darnell Sweeney was signed. Could Justin Jackson who is in the same mold in terms of defensive position be signed instead? Then the sabermetricians working on the Jays can evaluate how well the first round draftees from 2000 onward have been performing. Then a better draft, player development ideas could be got. In the end, whether Sweeney or Jackson pans out as an MLBer does not matter.

IF Tyler Ladendorf R/R was recently signed and going to Buffalo. From his record in hitting, his advantage is probably that he had a cup of MLB coffee. If the Jays wanted that, would the team get a batter like IF Ty Kelly who is a swtich hitter, has had more MLB coffee and possibly hit better than Ladendorf if park factor in Las Vegas is taken away? My point is that if the Jays wanted another veteran batter, would trading away this season a guy like Danny Espinosa for a guy Ty Kelly be better than releasing Espinosa and signing a guy like Ladendorf?

GabrielSyme - Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#357683) #
well, if we're just going to trade unsupported claims like this, i'll just point out this isn't actually true, that the quick easy random sample i just gave is typical of what we'd see with a larger sample, and leave it at that.

Your random sample consisted of 4 guys who might arguable be called successes, three of whom were pitchers; that's hardly a robust sample. I'll look at all position player 4-year college draftees from 2005 to 2010 from rounds 2-5 with more than 10 WAR. I'm excluding pitchers because you recognize that their development is more variable, and I'm using early-rounders to exclude guys who weren't well thought-of when drafted.

That gives us a larger sample, all "successful" prospects:

Lucroy: 21 (Rk); 22 (A, A+), 23 (AA), 24 (AA, AAA, MLB)
K. Seager: 21 (Rk, A, A+), 22 (A+), 23 (AA, AAA, MLB)
B. Crawford: 21 (Rk, A-); 22 (A+, AA), 23 (A+,AA), 24 (A+, AAA, MLB)
Kipnis: 22 (A-), 23 (A+, AA), 24 (AAA, MLB)
Avila: 21 (A); 22 (AA, MLB)
B. Belt: 22 (A+, AA, AAA), 23 (A+, AAA, MLB)
Gyorko: 21 (A-, A); 22 (A+, AA), 23 (AA, AAA), 24 (MLB)
Headley: 21 (A-, A); 22 (A+), 23 (AA, MLB), 24(AAA, MLB)
Blackmon: 21 (A-); 22 (A+), 23 (AA), 24 (AAA, MLB), 25(AAA, MLB)
J. Jay: 21 (A); 22 (A+, AA), 23 (AA, AAA), 24 (AAA), 25(AAA, MLB)
Cozart: 21 (A); 22 (A), 23 (AA), 24 (AAA), 25(AAA, MLB)

So, among these high-round picks, who succeeded (when most "legit prospects" fail to reach 10 WAR), the only one who met your age/level criteria consistently is Brandon Belt. Avila gets on your target at age 22 after being behind the previous year. Gyorko gets to your target levels every year after starting one level lower. That's pretty much it, and that's one reason why your age/level standard is a silly basis for evaluating prospects.
Glevin - Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#357684) #
"I think it's more useful to give credit to guys playing older competition than to knock players who are progressing in a pretty typical way."

This. Definitely. There is a point where a player's age really counts against them (Say, Pentacost at 25 just starting in AA) but for most players, as long as they are progressing levels at a decent pace, they are still prospects. The issue is when they get stuck at levels for a long time or repeat a level and don't improve. To expect someone like Warmoth to go from being drafted to excelling in AA in less than a year is unrealistic. Each level takes time to adapt to for all but the super-elite prospects (and sometimes even them). Plenty of prospects take their time through the minors. Look at, for example, someone Warmoth has been compared to-Brian Dozier. Dozier was 24 and starting the season in high A.

In fact, I (and pretty much everyone else) prefer Warmoth to Urena as a prospect now even though he's older and at a lower level simply because Urena has now had around 750 PAs at AA and above and has been awful, in fact, has gotten worse. Warmoth is still on the ascendancy and Urena has gotten stuck.


"Pick 45 is almost always a lot closer in talent to pick 15 than pick 15 is to top few picks."

And pick 75 is closer in talent to pick 500 than it is to pick 10. We tend to look at these things linearly but the reality is that there is a huge dropoff in talent early in the draft. Fangraphs did a piece that had picks 1-5 getting an average of 9.2 WAR pre arbitration and for every 5 picks after that it went 5.2, slowly all the way down to 2.2. So pick 6-10 was closer to pick 45-50 than it was to pick 1-5 in value.
bpoz - Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#357687) #
B Harper is very good. #1 pick. I expect that he pulled up the Avg war for the top 5 in his draft.

If you make substitutions into the top 5 you should get higher Avg results. Stroman, Sanchez and Thor into their top 5.

No argument from me. Just stating the difficulty in choosing.
uglyone - Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#357689) #
nice post Gabriel. I'm not convinced yet but i'll dig into those numbers a bit more before responding.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#357692) #
UO, the dynamics have changed quite a bit from 20 years ago as more teams appreciate the value/age curve because of the arbitration/free agency time frames.  Teams have an incentive to hold players back so their pre-arb and early arb years are in the 25-28 range.  If you draft a collegian position player at 21 and keep him in the minors for 3 years while he perfects all aspects of his game, that works. You do have to balance it with risk of injury, but it seems that age 24 is about right.  Obviously you don't need to do that for players who are clearly ready to contribute at a high level within a year of signing, like the Longorias of the world. 

I rush to add that this time frame is not in the best interest of the player. 

uglyone - Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#357693) #
But I'm not sure that matters so much in terms of actual performance. just briefly scanning gabe's examples - almost all those guys were handling those levels very easily as overagers, except for one or two whose eventual mlb value was tied mostly to their defense.

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