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Two teams with identical, and identically awful records? It's the Toilet Bowl, folks!

And with the Tampa thread closing in on 200 comments...


While it's not yet official, it seems to be an open secret that Bo Bichette and Sean Reid-Foley will be joining the team in Kansas City.† Freddy Galvis is still on the team, but Bo didn't come all this way to sit and watch. Presumably Reid-Foley takes Stroman's rotation spot. Reid-Foley's not as good as Stroman, but really - what difference does it make? The team went 8-13 in Stroman's starts. Maybe they would have gone 6-15 if Reid-Foley had been on the mound. When the team is this bad...

And that's a new experience for all of us. Atkins, with what I have to assume is Shapiro's blessing, seems now to have fully committed to the Astros-Cubs model of team building. Tear it all down, bottom out, and start from scratch. (Yes, he waited too long to get on with it, but there were exigent circumstances.) Anyway, this is very interesting to me, because it's not the Blue Jay Way. That's never been tried here. The Jays have always resisted bottoming out. When the 1992-93 champions, the culmination of more than a decade of quality teams, started to go bad in 1995-96, what did Gord Ash do? He signed Roger Clemens. The whole justification for J.P. Ricciardi was that he could build a contender on the cheap, like the guy he'd worked for in Oakland. Alex Anthopoulos endured two mediocre years with John Farrell and promptly swung for the fences with the Marlins trade.

In the NBA, I think they call it the Mediocrity Treadmill. Never good enough to contend, never bad enough to land a superstar in the draft. Baseball is quite different, of course. It's much harder to project the future of high school kids in this game. Baseball players take much longer to develop. It's a more difficult game, it requires a different - and arguably superior - kind of athleticism. (Basketball players generally aren't quick enough to play baseball. Well, have you seen how big they are?) Bottoming out is risky enough in basketball. It's Very Risky in baseball. It takes much longer for the payoff to appear, and ownership groups and fanbases have only so much patience and time. Consider tonight's opposition. The Royals were the original Model Expansion team. They put together a great team in their first decade of existence. That team never won a championship, but they stayed competitive and eventually won a title with some of the remnants of those original great teams still around for the fun. But they went bad, too, a few years after that. From 1995 through 2012 they had one - one - winning season out of eighteen, and their 83-79 mark in 2003 was such a surprise to one and all that Tony Pena was awarded the Manager of the Year. There isn't always a payoff.

But we're in for it now.

Matchups!!

Mon. 29 July - Pannone (2-4, 6.39) vs Keller (7-9, 3.95)
Tue 30 July - Reid-Foley? (0-1, 3.55) vs Montgomery (0-1, 7.71)
Wed 31 July - Waguespack (1-1, 5.63) vs Junis (6-9, 5.03)
Jays at Royals, 29-31 July | 358 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#378155) #
"When the team is this bad...And that's a new experience for all of us."

Not a new experience for me. Or you, Magpie. I know where you were in 1977-78-79. You were watching this bad, as was I.

Mike Green - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#378156) #
Through 1981 really. 

The Jays have a score to settle with the Royals for 1985 and 2015.  No point starting with this series...
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#378158) #
This is probably the most important series of the year:). Draft positions are on the line.

There are ways to enjoy 100 plus loss seasons. Watching Bichetteís major league debut is one of them. Taking the occasional break from watching is also one of them:)
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#378159) #
There are ways to enjoy 100 plus loss seasons.



There are? Tell us!
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#378160) #
I donít know, I sat in the bleachers at the Ex pre 1981 many times and enjoyed the hell out of some of those games. Iíll admit there were some painfully bad games too. I donít think the memory of the enjoyment is all old guy nostalgia:)
Chuck - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#378162) #
I agree with Nigel. The 100-loss experience that comes from "hey, we've got a MLB team!" is different than it is 40 years in. You're willing to cozy up with a Doug Ault or Coco Laboy in a way that you can't with a Brandon Drury.
hypobole - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#378164) #
As bad as this team has been, its run differential is "only" -88 thus far, on pace for -133. Those 3 early teams ranged from -185 to -249. Admittedly, with Marcus, Sogard and soon to be others gone it will probably get a lot worse.

Didn't realize it till I looked, but the White Sox, who I thought were kind of turning the corner, are at -113 runs this year.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#378171) #
Apropos absolutely nothing, but with the recent anniversary of the first moon landing I keep seeing the famous clip of Kennedy - I just saw it a minute ago - where he says

We choose to go to the moon and do the other thing not because they are easy...

What other thing? What the hell was he talking about? Did he lose his place and wing it for a second?

it's been driving me mad for a long time. I have no life, as I believe I've mnetioned.
Mike Green - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#378173) #
I think that his doctors called it a Marilyn Moment. 
ayjackson - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#378174) #
I always interpreted that as a turn of phrase for "other things" or "everything" or "similar things". Didn't attribute it to a Trump moment.
ayjackson - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#378175) #
Trump? Marilyn?

Strange bedfellows indeed. Who am I to argue with the medical profession?
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#378176) #
Mike, that actually made me laugh out loud.
Mike Green - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#378177) #
Shelly Duncan has been re-assigned says Ross Atkins, per Ben Nicholson-Smith on twitter.

Yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away. 
Spifficus - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#378178) #
If the internet is to be believed (dubious proposition alert!), in the preceding paragraph he had just described things like climbing the highest mountain, the first transatlantic flight, and Rice playing Texas (hey, a politician's gotta pander). It may not be the most eloquent turn of phrase, but at least it gives 'the other things' form.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#378179) #
I hope Duncan got reassigned to watching and endless loop of Brito ABs.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#378183) #
Thank you Spifficus! I have wasted far too much time wondering about it!
Spifficus - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#378184) #
Same here. It had been one of those nagging things that would come up every time I heard the quote. This time, it happened to last long enough to make it through a veritable squirrel minefield in my brain to the point of actually looking it up.

I get distracted quite... SQUIRREL!
hypobole - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#378185) #
From ESPN:

Given Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s historic display during the Home Run Derby, one had to wonder if it would be a launching point for the stud-in-waiting. Through 15 games, he has had a slight bump in average (.298, up from .249 in before Derby) and slugging (.439, up from .413). But the biggest changes have been an increase in pull percentage (51.2% entering Sunday; was 39.1% before Derby) and a drop in soft contact (14.0%; was 22.4% before Derby).
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#378186) #
Sounds like $2.5 million went to the Mets along with Stroman. Thatís effectively Stromanís salary for the rest of the year. Thatís not an insignificant add to that deal.
bpoz - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#378187) #
Agreed Nigel. Good money.
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#378192) #
Kennedy's speech was about doing "the other thingw", of which going to the moon was one of.

another of the "other things" was, hilariously, "Rice playing Texas".
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#378193) #
ah, spiffy beat me. I shoulda known better not to keep reading on batters box.
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#378196) #
galvis pulled from the lineup.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#378197) #
Wilner reports that Galvis has just been scratched from the starting lineup and that the Hug Watch is on. Reid-Foley is in the clubhouse but not yet on the roster, as Bichette and Pannone were activated today.

This is excitement! Or what passes for it around here.
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#378198) #
apparently galvis is injured, or maybe "injured", just in time for Bo's arrival.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#378199) #
Galvis was in the original lineup at 2b, Biggio takes over. Lower back tightness, they say.
bpoz - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#378200) #
Galvis has a very good health record. He hopefully will be ok soon.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#378202) #
If the grand plan was to bring up Bichette and have he, Galvis and Biggio job share the two middle infielder roles on a 2/3ís basis, then that isnít a very good plan. Bichette and Biggio need to play. I hope they are going to move Galvis. If not, I cannot see him being happy about playing once or twice a week.
hypobole - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#378204) #
apparently galvis is injured, or maybe "injured", just in time for Bo's arrival.

Yeah, vets are more than happy to give up their position for rooks.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#378205) #
Atkins on the teevee, going on about what a great and passionate competitor Stroman is and how much he's going to enjoy watching him going forward. The verb "love" was actually used.

Man might be in the wrong line of business. He's got a future in politics.
uglyone - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#378206) #
Vlad-Bo-Biggio

Future 3B-SS-2B combo on display?

Or future 2B-1B-DH combo on display?
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#378207) #
I had to turn the sound down on that interview. If I was Stroman I would be pretty upset about that performance by Atkins.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#378209) #
If I was Stroman I would be pretty upset about that performance by Atkins.

I would think he'd be a little more upset if Atkins had let the world know what he actually thinks of Stroman. It's pretty clear at this point that the distaste is mutual.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#378210) #
Thatís true. But that was world class pandering when most people know that Atkins doesnít actually feel that way about him. Atkins should just have thanked Stroman, wished him well and talked up the great prospects they obtained.
grjas - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#378211) #
JPR, AA and Atkins were all mealy mouthed, but I think Ross is quickly rising to the top.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#378213) #
Well, it's pretty nice to be in the major leagues and people really have lost their jobs for speaking their minds.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#378214) #
I donít expect GMs to speak their mind. I also completely understand that spin is an important component of every GMs job in every sport. Iíll go further and say that when you are the GM for a club owned by a media conglomerate it may be as highly valued as your operational sills. But that was way over the top, disingenuous and not necessary.

Enough about that, Sanchez and Pannone sure look like they could win a Cy Young as tandem starters:)
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#378215) #
Geez, I hope Merrifield has fired his agent.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#378216) #
"The shift gets Smoak again."

Yeah, that would help explain the .223 BABiP, which is way below Smoak's career norm. The opposition does seem to shift more regularly against Smoak than anyone else on the team. (That's just an impression, extracted from my nether regions.)
Spifficus - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#378217) #
Stroman never seemed too concerned with what came out of his mouth (or fingers), so I'm not sure why he should hold his former GM to a higher standard.

This is not me weighing in on the jerk/not-jerk debate. I just think he was very passionate and wore that passion on his sleeve a little too often, but that same passion brought him back from a torn ACL in 6 months (good!), and had him try to rush way too much to get ready after shoulder trouble (bad!). Like anything, it's complicated.
Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#378218) #
In addition to all of the other changes in the game, the basis upon which scorers charge an error have also changed.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#378219) #
Young Vlad certainly has a third baseman's arm, but even more than his range one worries about his hands. The type of defensive player who gets called "Clank." When he needs to repair his glove, they bring in a welder. Stuff like that.
Spifficus - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#378220) #

Now that's some old guy nostalgia, Nigel. ;)

Hometown scoring's been a thing as long as I can remember, and I suspect it was even worse with fewer and fewer games on TV.

For Vlad, the biggest thing for me is his size, and how it really seems to prevent him from getting lower to the ground, and just generally makes him unstable and unbalanced. That has effects on all facets of his defensive game. I still think if he can drop a good amount of weight in the offseason, he'll be significantly better.

Nigel - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#378221) #
Fair enough. I did refrain from telling anyone to get off my lawn:). I do think it goes beyond the normal home team bias but maybe Iíve lost the plot on this one.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#378222) #
The official scorer is sitting right there in the press box, and the instant there's a call that can go either way there's a good chance that the home team's PR guy will have something to say.

In the Dome, this would inevitably end with the official scorer going to the video tape between innings to take another look. Sometimes he'd change the call, but not always. As I recall, the discussion was almost always about trying to get a hit for the home team's batter. You wouldn't want to argue for an error to be called on one of your guys, so the pitchers and their ERAs were generally on their own.
Gerry - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#378223) #
I think Bo took a first pitch fastball, almost down the middle, for strike one in each at-bat tonight.
Magpie - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#378224) #
The fact that at least half the game's history took place before official scorers had videotape to check... who knows what actually happened! I personally witnessed things happening on the field that the official record simply missed, and which therefore never happened. And how did they keep track of those 6-3-4-5-4-6 rundowns without either videotape or a half-dozen guys with their pens out muttering "6-3-4-5-4-6" and scribbling it down.
SK in NJ - Monday, July 29 2019 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#378225) #
Giles was apparently not available tonight. Thereís a good chance he wonít be traded now unless heís being held back for trade reasons and not injury reasons. The return for him will be a lot worse in the off-season but with no August trade deadline anymore they will have no choice unless heís healthy by tomorrow.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#378227) #
Can't trade Giles until the off season now or maybe even next deadline.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#378230) #
Good to see Cavan Biggio break out of his slump with a 3 for 5 night. Danny Jansen seems to be really scuffling though.

With Guerrero, Biggio and Bichette now on the big club, the Jays kind of remind me of the Leafs with Matthews, Marner and Nylander. As the Leafs have found out, the trouble comes when you have to start paying the young stars the big bucks.
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#378232) #
The money is pretty irrelevant but it tells us too things.

1. The Jays and Stroman were apart on the value of an extension by quite a bit of money.

2. Stroman would have been a fit with any contending team struggling with their payroll limit.

The noise from Minnesota is that the Jays wanted Lewis or Kirilloff. Lewis is a shortstop ranked just ahead of Bo. Kirilloff is a lot like Guerrero if you moved him to a corner outfield spot--or first base.
That doesn't sound realistic. It seems more likely to me that the Jays would have wanted pitching back.  I'd imagine a deal centered on Balazovic, but along with a couple of guy in their top 10.

scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#378233) #
Jansen is back to hitting ground balls to the third baseman.
The Jays core will make the minimum for another 3 years, 2 for Guerrero and Jansen.

It was nice to see Bo play with a big smile on his face.

scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#378234) #
Bo is comfortable hitting with 2 strikes, but he's going to ambush someone soon enough.
Just keep taking that first pitch fastball until you really need a hit.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#378235) #
The timing of Galvis' lower back tightness seems very coincidental with his move to 2nd base. Can't help wondering if a purple butt is part of the lower back.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#378236) #
Why do all of our assets fall apart [Giles]
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#378237) #
Sliders are tough on elbows and Giles throw one of the best sliders I've ever seen.

At this point, I hope they keep him until next year's trade deadline.

bpoz - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#378238) #
We have been scoring a lot lately.

Hot weather? Bad pitching by the opposition? OR The veterans are carrying the team offense?
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#378239) #
Can't remember where I read this, but a few weeks back it was mentioned that when they tested pitchers' elbows with specialized bio-metric sleeves it was found fastballs were the leading cause of stress.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#378240) #
Purple Butt Disease was exactly what I thought of last night. Galvis is having a career season.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#378241) #
It seems to me that some guys were and are being kept around "just in case". Just in case Guerrero struggles, Drury can be plugged into 3B. Just in case Biggio struggles, Sogard (or Drury) can be plugged into 2B. Just in case Bichette struggles, Galvis can be plugged into SS.

Sogard made the mistake of playing so well that he warranted fulltime play, and that was taking at-bats from younger players. So he had to go.

I have a feeling that Drury is hovering as the backup 2B/3B, even though this hot streak is earning him playing time at 1B and the outfield.

And now Galvis presents a problem. He's been playing well enough to deserve the starts at SS and has seemed to be a team leader of sorts. So what becomes of him? If you move him, Urena now becomes plan B at shortstop should Bichette falter. If you keep him, how happy will he be? How will his unhappiness manifest itself?

And if Galvis now slots in at 2B, as he was slated to do last night, does that mean Biggio is moved off the position where he has seen most of his playing time?

On a team doing nothing, Montoyo can just play out the final third of the season, flipping guys in and out of the lineup, ensuring everyone gets playing time. But I would hope that come the start of 2020, some players are locked into positions. Or is that outdated thinking? Managers like Maddon and Cash seem to move guys around and make it work. Maybe this is the new normal. And maybe there's nothing wrong with that. Maybe I am revealing my old guy bias.

Finally, further adding to the positional confusion is the uncertainty that Guerrero can stick at 3B, that Bichette can stick at SS and that Biggio can stick at 2B (notwithstanding the open question of whether they can hit at this level).

What does next year's starting lineup look like? Wow, anyone's guess.

grjas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#378243) #
Will be interesting to see what Wheeler will bring at the deadline should he be traded. Given heís an FA at year end they now have Stroman, youíd think the Mets would push hard to trade him. Of source they are the Mets.

But if that team gets a better haul for Wheeler than we did for Stroman, the pitch forks will be marching down Blue Jays Way.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#378244) #
Wheeler won't bring anywhere near that much.

Jon Heyman reports that Cleveland among teams looking at Justin Smoak.
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#378245) #
Rightly so, I think, if we get fleeced by the Mets.  A lot of the commentary I read on the Stroman trade actually noted how the Mets were cornering the market on available SPs, and we'll see soon if this does indeed manage to drive the price up. 

Galvis was told that he wouldn't get full-time ABs this year when he was signed, he should be fine sharing time.  It's a good problem to have, and with the potential for Biggio to the OF, it will be the lowest performers who lose the most playing time.  But how much, if any, does this positional shuffling hurt a players development? 

Bad news about Giles - once again, we move a key trade asset too late?
All GMs - all leaders - have to balance honesty, sincerity, asset-management and decision making- but I don't buy that Atkins and Stro are equally responsible for the bad relationship - managing relationships is actually part of the GMs job, not the players, and the power dynamics between them are not equal. 

I think Nigel's post nailed it - we don't expect total honesty, but Atkins' comments were 'disingenuous and not necessary'.  Just say something that doesn't require lying.  
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#378246) #
The Mets are now  in fact  Wheeler dealers.
h/t Hal Quinn. 
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#378248) #
I gotta reiterate that given my age vs level obsession, this SWR pickup might actually be huge.

And I have to applaud the FO for targeting one high upside guy they really like instead of a bunch of mediocre.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#378249) #
Ugh wrong thread.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#378252) #
uo, I just did the same thing in the Rays thread. Repeat it here.


Found this from ex-BP writer Gideon Turk at Fangraph's Hardball Times discussing his time writing and breaking news about the Jays, his pipeline to the inner workings of the FO and the ramifications.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/breaking-the-news/
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#378253) #
The vets signed by the front office on 1 year contracts are meant to be traded for assets.
Come September, they should be calling up everyone on the 40 roster, so there's no point in having older guys on the bench.

The backups are not there in case the prospects struggle.
They are there to help the prospects in their transitions.
They are there to cover up in case of injury.

Maile shouldn't play another game in a Blue Jays uniform.
They can keep him on the IL until September and he can be use in case of emergency after that.

Tellez can go back to first as soon as he stops chasing.
Sending Smoak to a contender would be a huge reward for him.
Extra playoffs money and possibly a ring.

At this point, Drury and Urena are the utility players.
Urena can play short, Drury can play in the outfield.
Interestingly, next year Urena will be out of options, but Drury will still have some.
Galvis was essential this year, but there's not that much room for him next year, even with the 26 roster.

Guerrero gets to the balls and make strong throws.
He's got issues catching the balls which would also be an issue at first base.
For now, we just enjoy the Legacy Infield.

I think we'll keep seeing a competitive atmosphere where the hot bats gets to play.

scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#378257) #
Interesting.

I wasn't so hot on keeping Goins, but  this was Smoak's breakout year.
Pearce wasn't always healthy and Upton would have been better served by going to Buffalo as the Jays were hoping.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#378258) #
It's now 7 days since Dalton Pompey was DFA'd. Guessing Gerry was correct he wasn't getting claimed.
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#378259) #
Not only that, but following a trade for a prospect, they Jays could be in a position to claim someone else.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#378260) #
Phelps for Hatch.

Hatch = almost 25yr old with crappy AAA numbers.

this FO can't help themselves with these guys. and yes, I'm sure his spin rate is good.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#378261) #
Phelps traded for Thomas Hatch a 24 year old pitcher in AA.

Hatch seems like another Waguespack, a marginal major league starter prospect.
Glevin - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#378262) #
ďthis FO can't help themselves with these guysĒ

Exactly, they should have asked for a high upside young arm for a 32 yo middle reliever with a 4.79 FIP coming off TJ surgery.. maybe Franco from the Rays? Adell from the Angels? Just stop pretending there was some other option to get some potential star for marginal pieces.. Itís ridiculous and dishonest because you are pretending there is some other option. No team is giving up exciting young players for these kinds of guys. Jordan Lyles as traded for a 25 YO reliever in AA. Vargas was traded for a 26 YO catcher in AA. Thatís what teams get for marginal pieces not some 18 year old who throws 97 and needs help with command.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#378264) #
do we really have to dumb this conversation down every single time?

it's a well established concept that being closer to the bigs adds value to a prospect.

its why most places rank SWR and Kay as similar value prospects.

I happen to prefer one type of prospect far more than other, despite their similar "value".
Chuck - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#378265) #
Ah, David Phelps, we hardly knew ya.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#378266) #
Hatch, Thomas RHP, Cubs 29th ranked prospect (MLB Pipeline) Pre-season was ranked 17th.

White male, no known STD's, genetic disorders, incurable diseases or disorders. (All that {other than his ethnicity} was just a guess on my part(: )

Grades: Fastball: 55/ Slider: 55/ Changeup: 50/ Overall: 40

Another human who's parts are worth more than his whole.

2019 AA stats: IP 100.0, H 104, HR 13, BB: 37, K: 93, Ave: .274 Whip: 1.41

Perhaps a usable 6th starter or a bullpen arm. Perhaps. Father Time knows all...
Mike D - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#378267) #
Glevin, it's just so tiresome to hear "were you expecting Jo Adell?"

The obvious concern is that trades like this don't seem to have much of a point. The Jays had a cheap club option on Phelps for next year - he is at 17 GP and the $1M option becomes $3M if the appearances fall between 30 and 39. They've weakened the bullpen by trading a cheap and still controllable pitcher for a non-prospect to...save a negligible amount of money that they weren't even obligated to spend?
Glevin - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#378268) #
ďdo we really have to dumb this conversation down every single time? Ē

Yes, because itís absolute nonsense that you keep regurgitating with literally no basis in fact.. The option isnít a reliever type in AA or a potential starter in A ball. There simply is no option to get the type of guy you say you prefer. You think the teams trading Lyles and Vargas also thought ďletís get a worse prospect because they are closer to the majors. Letís go get that 26 year old AA catcher instead of some stud prospect.Ē. Itís so silly .
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#378269) #
You're too smart to be that dumb.

Everyone understands that prospects closer to the bigs have added value simply for that reason alone.

I will continue to suggest that continuing to waste value on mlb-closeness in deal after deal is a bad move.

And that your only response to that is dumbed down sarcasm, only reinforces the validity of my point.

All because you want to believe I'm biased, even though i'm praising a guy like SWR literally more than anyone here.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#378270) #
Ken_Rosenthal

#BlueJays closer Ken GIles visited Dr. Keith Meister in Dallas today, source tells The Athletic. An MRI revealed no structural damage in Gilesí elbow, but upon Meisterís recommendation, the pitcher received a cortisone shot. Will not pitch again before deadline.

GregorChisholm

This is borderline comical. Just yesterday, Montoyo was asked about Giles and he said he was fine and "working through it." The next day he's in Dallas getting an MRI? The lies that get told around this place sometimes just have to make you laugh.
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#378271) #
Not sure Waguespack is the right comparable.

Underwhelming, for sure.
He's a 3rd round pick. Was the Big 12 Conference pitcher of the year in 2016. Whatever that is.
Seems to have decent stuff, decent 2-seamer, 4-seam sits 93, touch 96mph.
Plus slider. Decent changeup. Currently having issues... pitching.

He was having success with his 2-seamer but the Cubs wanted him to throw a 4-seamer/changeup combo to get lefties out.

Looking at Fangraphs it seemed that Mark liked him.

Hatch has the best combination of near-MLB-ready stuff and future upside. He's athletic and fields his position well. My two biggest concerns are the arm action (effort) and the fact he doesn't always finish his pitches and leaves his shoulder open, which hurts his command. He has the stuff -- the potential for three average-or-better offerings -- to be a No. 4 starter in the Majors with some maturation. I really like the way the changeup works off his fastball.

Maybe they think they can fix him.
They're still focused on finding pitching.

I think trading Phelps, who was under contract next year, means that Giles isn't going anywhere.




Glevin - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#378272) #
ďEveryone understands that prospects closer to the bigs have added value simply for that reason alone.

I will continue to suggest that continuing to waste value on mlb-closeness in deal after deal is a bad move.ď

Itís just not true in any way. There is no team taking mediocre prospects closer to the majors instead of high upside young guys. It just doesnít exist. Look around baseball. Look at the trades being made. When do you see marginal players getting back young, exciting players? It doesnít happen. And you can continue to complain about Jays trading low value players for low value prospects and it will continue to be ridiculous.
DH - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#378273) #
The return on Phelps would be understandable for a low-end, rental, but his option is extremely team friendly so... I'm a bit surprised that he went so cheaply. Though, as noted above, Giles' extended stay in TO may have pushed Phelps (and next Hudson I'm sure) to the front of the queue.
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#378274) #
They could have sent him to Dallas a day earlier if they had wanted to.
You can't expect Montoyo giving up medical details about a pitcher the Jays are trying to move in the next couple of days. The situation is fluid. Nobody really knows. Many teams are still interested, but probably at a huge discount.

I'd rather they focus on moving Hudson now. Let's go for a guy in A ball to balance things out.

grjas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#378275) #
ďsave a negligible amount of money that they weren't even obligated to spend?Ē

...and the Jays also sent cash...so it really seems odd.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#378276) #
Hatch is decent return for Phelps... he's been modest in AA but has the makings of a potential solid seventh inning reliever or two-to-three-inning guy and he may need the change of scenery to convince him to buy into using the four-seamer more - it's not uncommon for pitcher (Jon Harris) to resist change; they do it but lack conviction and that shows up in the results.

There is a common theme in the returns with teams giving up college pitchers signed in 2016 as they need to be added to the 40-man for the first time this year - Kay and Hatch both fit into that scenario and both are fringe adds although Kay is more likely to be added given his good AA numbers.

I would like to see the Jays get Chris Sampen or Taj Bradley in the Sogard deal but I'm guessing those will be more raw, hard-throwing (reliever) types.
PeterG - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#378277) #
Jays are also thinking ahead to 2020 and having more flexibility by acquiring optionable pitchers.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#378278) #
Stylistically, I agree with uo. Would have preferred a higher risk, higher upside kid in the low minors rather than another player that will have to be Rule 5 protected this offseason.

Not sure what difference Phelps would made for our bullpen this year or next. Ain't gonna cost us the pennant either season. And the Jays will have payroll space aplenty to sign replacement arms in the offseason.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#378279) #
Mike D - the point may be that it isn't as easy to lose 100 games as people think it is - sometimes you really have to work at it:) I don't really see the point either, but as hypobole says it doesn't really matter given where this team is at this year and next.

I also generally agree with uo on taking back other team's 40 man roster flotsam, but, if you're going that route, then I'd far rather it be with a pitcher as their development patterns are so unpredictable. #youneverknow
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#378280) #
"Itís just not true in any way. There is no team taking mediocre prospects closer to the majors instead of high upside young guys. It just doesnít exist. Look around baseball. Look at the trades being made. When do you see marginal players getting back young, exciting players? It doesnít happen. And you can continue to complain about Jays trading low value players for low value prospects and it will continue to be ridiculous."

1uick look at last year's Deadline:

L.Lynn for Luis Rijo (19, Rk)
L.Martin for W.Castro (21, AA)
J.Diekman for J.Javier (19, Rk)
F.Rodney for D.Chalmers (20, A)
D.Murphy for A.Monasterio (21, A+)
C.Gearrin for A.Mendoza (19, A) and T.Ortega (18, Rk)
C.Granderson for D.Orimoyole (21, A+)
D.Freese for J.Valdez (20, Rk)
X.Cedeno for B.Connell (19, Rk) and
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#378281) #
Glevin, you continue to repeat this false dichotomy.  Of course you're not wrong that prospects are more valuable than ever, and that the gap in trade value between them and scrap-heap FAs continues to grow, but I think it's obvious that Ugly is more interested in A ball lottery tickets - not great young guys like the kid we just got from the Mets, but the guys like Demi Orimoloye - toolsy but raw.  Lane Thomas when we dealt him away for IFA money is the longshot upside.
I forget where I read this today, I assume the Athletic and Stoeten, but the analysis was essentially that Atkins wants these fringy starter prospect types - which he is clearly accumulating - because he feels one or two will develop further.  

It's a clear strategy, and it's clear that Ugly, myself and others here think a better strategy would be targeting guys further from the majors.  Nobody on this site is naive enough to expect a Jo Adell. 

Marc, is Harris reluctant to move to the pen or something?
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#378282) #
He resisted changes to his delivery and also in his pitch mix. And then he got hurt. And then hurt again.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#378283) #
The return for Phelps is pretty much what I expected and while I'd prefer the lower level upside lottery pick. the Jays pitching over the next 2 years could be a dumpster fire and guys like Hatch can be on the Buffalo shuffle and maybe he emerges as a decent reliever.

I was thinking that since Kay missed the entire 2016/17 seasons because of injuries he doesn't need to be protected from the rule 5 draft.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#378284) #
A definite thumbs down from me on the Phelps trade.  I wouldn't have traded him at the deadline- most of his value right now is in the option rather than 2019. 
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#378285) #
While I prefer to acquire the low level Upside prospect like Demi Orimoloye/Ronny Brito, I think this FO because of past success like Kluber in Cleveland tend to be partial to guys like Hatch - the ability of the development staff to get the best out of these fringy prospects will determine the success of this strategy - And this FO has acquired toolsy upside talent through Trades, IFA & the Draft (unlike J.P. Ricciardi)
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#378286) #
C'mon Mike the real reason is that you just want to see me posting "the BGs" until 2021. :)
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#378287) #
Yes, I would think that if they had held on to Phelps until next season, there's a good chance he would have been worth more as a trading chip 12 months from now. That's an interesting FG report on Hatch, maybe he has more potential than his numbers this year would indicate. The Cubs obviously thought highly of him when they drafted him in the 3rd round, and then began his pro career in advanced A ball in 2017. He had pretty good numbers in AA in 2018, and it will be interesting to see if the Jays can get him back on track.

I don't see any 40 man roster problem for the Jays for the Rule 5 at this point. They are at 38 now, and they will be losing several players to either trade, or just expiring contracts, plus players who can easily be dropped off the 40 man - Smoak, Richard, Font, Hudson likely traded, Law, plus marginal guys like Paulino, Davis, maybe Urena, McKinney. I'd drop Drury, but the Jays seem to like him. Anyway, they could easily get down to 30-32 players, and there aren't all that many to add. You've got Shoemaker, Luciano and Tepera on the 60 day, plus Zeuch, Kay, Hatch, Zach Jackson, maybe Wall.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#378288) #
Re the Giles injury, the upshot may well be that the Jays received essentially no medium- or long-term value from the Osuna trade.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#378289) #
The issue with Phelps is he had lost 2 MPH of velocity this season. Whether that is due to just coming back from injury or something more long-term is unclear, but the Jays might have figured there wasn't much upside in keeping him and seeing what his value would have been a year from now. I doubt teams were lining up to add him to a playoff bullpen. Maybe the Cubs get lucky with him, but the return was always going to be something like this.

The FO has targeted young high upside talent in drafting, international signings, and recent trades. I think it is clear they are looking for that, as every other team is. However when you are dealing marginal talent, it's a pretty unrealistic ask to accept an 18-19 year old with upside.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#378290) #
C'mon Mike the real reason is that you just want to see me posting "the BGs" until 2021. :)

It was a definite thought that crossed my mind!  Stroman, Phelps equals no BGs.  Speaking of which, the Blue Jays are 7-10 in the second half, but have scored and allowed 80 runs. 

Teoscar Hernandez is on one of his streaks.  He's been blistering hot for the last two weeks.  He has a career wRC+ of 103 (cue Foreigner!) and if he were just decent in the outfield, he would be OK.  He's actually been a little better defensively in 2019, and it remains possible that he will be playable in 2020 (a -7 CFer and a good hitter for the position). 
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#378291) #
Hernandez has 7 HR's in his last 42 AB's, and is now on a 30+ HR pace. The Jays lead the majors in HR's since June 16.
Jonny German - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#378292) #
With Giles hurt it now looks likely that Dalton Pompey will be the third-best prospect the Jays add to their system this deadline.
Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#378293) #
I've decided to wade in, but only ankle deep, to the "lets trade a bag of balls for a God debate."

I see and like guys like McKinney, Drury, Gurriel, Hernandez, etc., as I saw and liked Bautista and Encarnacion - back in the day. Crap shoots. Something there to like - "an' god willin' an' the river don't rise" maybe one of them turns into a butterfly. Edwin and Jose both turned into beautiful butterflies. Not every caterpillar is so lucky. Not every trade is so lucky.

Personally, I'm satisfied with the two stiff's we got for Stroman. The old stiff is "control/command" away from being at least an entry level butterfly. The young guy - might - perhaps - be- much more. An actual guy who has serious upside. I like to fantasize. Hell - At my age, at least I can still do it!
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#378294) #
Good thing the Jays used Giles on three consecutive days before the All-Star break, shortly after his IL stint for elbow problems. Wins in a 100-loss season are always more important than mere trade deadlines.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#378295) #
From Ben Clemens at FG:

"As for the Blue Jays, they turned an offseason signing of a player recovering from Tommy John surgery into an intriguing prospect. Thomas Hatch is a 24-year-old starter in Double-A, where heís having a middling season. He has strikeout stuff and sits 91-94 as a starter, though scouts see him transitioning to a relief role and adding a few ticks of velocity. His control is the real wild card here ó Eric and Kiley gave him a 40 for present and future command this past offseason, and heís had trouble locating his fastball for strikes in 2019, though heís kept his walk rate under control. He slots in at 29th on the Blue Jaysí org list.

The ideal outcome, from the Jaysí perspective, is probably developing Hatch into a facsimile of David Phelps. That kind of player, as the Cubs showed in making this trade, is very valuable, and Hatch has a shot to do that at the major league level. For a team that isnít competing in 2019, turning 1.5 years of volatile but good middle relief into more years of volatile but possibly good middle relief is a shrewd move. With Ken Giles unlikely to be traded given his injury woes, this seems like a reasonable fallback for the Jays."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-phelps-is-now-a-cub/
bpoz - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#378296) #
I don't want to lower the pleasure and optimism for many Bauxites because that would be unkind.

Baseball America used to publish a future ML roster based on the most recent draft for every team. For the Jays they were very wrong but that was most likely that JPR's drafts did not work out.

Most top 100 lists have players that never make it. In many cases it is because of injury. So they are unreliable IMO.

I don't wish any of these young men injury and failure but it does happen. That is life and baseball.

Currently I am evaluating C Mize, M Kopech, F Whitley and N Pearson because I am interested in seeing if any of them can be good. I expect them to be in their teams rotation in 2021. I am using M Stroman as the evaluation bar because he is having a good career so far. He works very hard and has a strong character.
I only expect 1 of the above to top Stroman. C Mize is my guess. But I do know that the above 4 prospects are very high on the prospect ranks.

Because I believe in "chance" being a strong factor in pitching success I am playing this game. Part 2 is 4 pitchers in the Jay's system. Borucki (ML), SRF AAA, P Murphy AA and M Castillo A+. I don't see any of these 4 in the Stroman level. But my guess is that 1 of them will do better than 1 or some of the part 1 pitchers.

rpriske - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#378297) #
The mid and long term value of the Osuna trade is that Osuna is not a Toronto Blue Jay.
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#378298) #
Giles has been used strictly as a closer and on days he asked to pitched regardless.
Folks here were complaining that he wasn't used enough in non-save situations.
Turns out, he was used as an elite closer and he got hurt and you can't  blame the coach for that because not using him in save situations would have also raised flags.

Boruki and Tepera also got hurt and certainly not from overuse.
Those things happen.

scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#378299) #
Another variable here is that some selling teams like Baltimore for example, are so far away from contention that they would just not take any prospect past A ball.

Also, note that Cashman has traded several rule V targets for younger A ball prospects lately, like the guy bounced back in the Encarnation deal, so something like that could still happen later.

Hopefully the 2 guys coming over for Sogard are low level prospects, however, the team does need those high level prospects now.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#378301) #
Itís unfortunate that Giles was unnecessarily overused right after his IL stint, at a time when the teamís prime focus should have been on keeping him healthy. Obviously, there was no good reason to use him three days in a row in that context.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#378302) #
Two comments one, Waguespack is actually a really good return for a lefty reliever and already has 0.3 WAR though a few spot starts.

I like Thomas Hatch, he could be a good reliever and his FIP and xFIP are pretty good.
scottt - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#378304) #
Smoak is not in the lineup. Cleveland, Astros and Rays have expressed interest.

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#378307) #
Does anyone remember the "Leave it to Beaver" episode where Wally bought some fly-by-night stock that Eddie was pushing, and Mr. Cleaver sold it and bought AT&T before it crashed, because he "knew better"?

That's sort of how I feel about Atkins and Shapiro - Ross is Wally, but even if he were ever to make a daring move, Dad Shapiro would be there to pull him back and take guaranteed mediocre returns to avoid any chance of losing big.

Meanwhile, AA was Eddie - sometimes making head-scratching moves, sometimes winning, sometimes losing big, but at least it was daring, different and interesting.

AA bought himself a LOT of rope from me just by daring to try, even if he failed. I had the feeling that at any moment, he might pull two rhinos out of a hat, or a bucket of hagslime - but it was pretty much guaranteed it wasn't going to be another fluffy, white bunny.

Shapiro/Atkins, meanwhile, seem happy to repeatedly trade a bunny for 3 chicks and pretend that it's great because "three is more than one", even if chicks sell 3-for-$1 at the market, and bunnies are worth $2.50 each.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#378308) #
Just to clarify: bought AT&T before _the fly-by-night stock_ crashed...
grjas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#378309) #
Thx for the chuckle vw. Needed. I remember Wally and the beaver but not the details.

Meanwhile, Pompey cleared waivers. Yay.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#378310) #
Not to rain on any Pompey parades but he'll be a minor league free agent this winter.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#378311) #
Itís quite possible that, in dismantling the 2015/16 Jays, the front office will have somehow managed to not acquire a single good player (one who turns out to be above-average in the majors), even though theyíve traded away a number of valuable MLB players (Osuna, Donaldson, Stroman, Happ, Sogard, Smoak, Phelps, Smith, Hendriks, Oh, Martin).
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#378312) #
A few responses....

...i agree with the positive feedback on Wagu - he was one of the few old guys I liked thanks to his peripherals.

.."The FO has targeted young high upside talent in drafting, international signings, and recent trades. "....which is kinda why I'm annoyed because they seem to be good at finding the interesting young talent that's not necessarily the highest rated

...does anyone want to do a deep dive to find spin rates and exit below for all the guys we've added this year and Last? I'm assuming they all rank very well there. The FO has a clear stats preference here and I just hope it's the right one
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#378314) #
"Itís quite possible that, in dismantling the 2015/16 Jays, the front office will have somehow managed to not acquire a single good player (one who turns out to be above-average in the majors), even though theyíve traded away a number of valuable MLB players (Osuna, Donaldson, Stroman, Happ, Sogard, Smoak, Phelps, Smith, Hendriks, Oh, Martin)."

Makes it doubly frustrating to me.

Seems obvious to me that they've been looking at a long term 6-10yr rebuild from the start. Never bought anything they were selling re: the short term. How they have still managed to waste so much trade value on older AAAA guys is bizarre to me.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#378315) #
The older minor league SP route is a pretty solid idea, especially in return for marginal talent like middle relievers. Either they can provide cheap depth, or their stuff could play up in a bullpen role, or maybe they are an adjustment away from being a little bit better. The jury is still out on Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, Merryweather, Hatch, etc, but if you can produce serviceable back end rotation depth or relievers out of that group, then it is still a good outcome considering the cost (well, aside from Merryweather, but that was a weird situation).

The Jays basically just built a package around an 18-year old when trading their best trade asset, traded Sogard for two pitchers apparently in the lower minors (so likely very young), they got the definition of a boom or bust for Martin in Brito, and so on. Their trading has been a mixed bag of talent coming back. Would have been nice to get those types for Osuna, Happ, and Donaldson, but as we have gone over many times before, those three transactions were just a huge combination of bad timing, bad luck, and the consequences of trading with Brian Cashman.
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#378317) #
Thanks for the reply Marc, do you know anything about how minor league FA works in terms of nuts and bolts?  I've often wondered why more teams don't make a point of paying more for the best of these players - I recall reading that the Yanks did this a few years back to sign Yangervis Solarte?  These guys are off the 40 man,  and players like Pompey and Harold Ramirez might have some marginal value. 

If I'm Pompey, I'm probably happy to wave goodbye to TO, but as a fan, I still hope he sticks.  Buffalo has a pretty crowded OF right now - perhaps we see a release for Fields / Patterson.  Forest Wall hopefully gets a look in Buffalo this season as well.

Speaking of finances, I'm pleased to see the Jays including money to facilitate the trades they are making.  We could be running some low payrolls for a few years, so adding money to trades, or taking bad contracts along with prospects, could facilitate the rebuild. 

And while I don't think Atkins is a good trader, I think the fringe prospect AAA starters like Thornton and Waguespack have been the best of the marginal prospects he's acquired.  
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#378318) #
According to Yahoo Sports, other execs around baseball are angry at the Jays front office for "dogging it" by accepting such a weak return for Stroman.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#378319) #
Jerjapan, I donít think there is anyone in Buffalo other than maybe Davis that should be getting playing in the OF ahead of Pompey
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#378323) #
does anyone want to do a deep dive to find spin rates and exit below for all the guys we've added this year and Last

Fangraphs The Board has spin rates for ranked pitchers by using the Scouting-Pitching tab.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#378324) #
other execs around baseball are angry at the Jays front office for "dogging it" by accepting such a weak return for Stroman.

Did they offer something better? If not... bite me.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#378325) #
That's the other execs. Not you, greenfrog.
grjas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#378326) #
Did they offer something better? If not... bite me.

Well presumably thatís sellers that are complaining so they wouldnít be making an offer to Stroman. Unless of course they are the Mets, who canít seem decide what they are.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#378328) #
Magpie, it's not the buyers calling out the Jays, no one has said they offered more.

It's other sellers complaining, thinking the Stroman deal will cause them to get lowballed as well.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#378331) #
Understood. I don't understand why the Jays should care about that, though.
AWeb - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#378332) #
So to my eye, Bichette looks like the fastest guy on the team, but his "run" tool is typically only rated at 50 or so, and is labelled with "average" speed. Maybe he's just quick to his top speed? It'll be a week or so before statcast gets enough readings to post anything.
grjas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#378333) #
Actually the Jays would be happy if their trade depresses prices. Theyíre less likely to be embarrassed by other trades.

For fans unhappy with the trade, itís more grist for the mill.

Anyway, at the end of the day it will be a few years whether weíll really know how good or bad a trade it was. There is potential with the new guys.
DH - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#378334) #
Back to the return for Phelps, Chris Martin just landed Kolby Allard from the Braves. No Coldplay concert included. That type of upside pitcher (Allard) for a pure rental certainly makes me wonder if the return for Phelps wasn't a bit light.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#378335) #
Allard is good return for Martin, but where do get the "upside" from? Here's FG:

"working with a 45 or 50 fastball, above average offspeed stuff, and plus command. He's little, doesn't throw hard, and he got hit around in his first taste of the big leagues, which is what scouts were afraid might happen to him because of the velo. Luckily he has advanced feel for what he's doing on the mound and he's still only 21, so even with the mediocre fastball there is a path to being a reliable back-end starter."
DH - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#378336) #
I get your point insofar as there's a definite ceiling but ... a 21 year old lefty with back of rotation potential: I would qualify that as considerable upside given the vast majority of players at the deadline don't make it to the Show. Didn't BA release a study that only 4% of players traded at deadline make it?
Thomas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#378337) #
Hypobole, you don't have to take Fangraphs ratings as gospel, but Allard is rated as a 40+. Hatch is a 40. By Fangraphs' rating system, Allard would be the (slightly) better prospect.

And Martin is a free agent at year's end, as opposed to having a cheap option.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#378338) #
Martin is not a rental, he's got 4 more years of control after this year and I don't think I've read a report that says Allard is any kind of upside pitcher - frankly, I think Martin stands a good chance of being more productive as a reliever than Allard as a starter over the next few years.
DH - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#378339) #
Martin is a rental. His contract called for free agency after his two year deal expires.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#378340) #
According to the reports I read, Martin is a free agent at the end of this year, due to the contract he signed when he returned from playing in Asia.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#378341) #
My apologies - Martin becomes a FA at season's end - then that a very good deal for Texas.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#378342) #
Cleveland has traded Bauer in a 3 team deal. Details apparently still coming in, but the names reported are Puig, Franmil Reyes, and Logan Allen to Cleveland, Bauer to the Reds, and Taylor Trammell to the Padres.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#378343) #
Career

Bauer: 174gs, 92era-, 92fip-, 95xfip-
Stro: 129gs, 87era-, 84fip-, 84xfip-

Last calendar year

Bauer: 29gs, 74era-, 89fip-, 92xfip-
Stroman: 26gs, 79era-, 77fip-, 89xfip-
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#378344) #
Very nice play by Teoscar.

Always wondered how it would feel to type that.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#378345) #
This is genuinely not snark. But didnít Cleveland just get a lot more for one third of a year of Bauer than the Jays just got for Stroman? Am I missing something? Again, serious question.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#378346) #
To acquire Bauer, the Reds give up Puig (rental) and prospect Taylor Trammell who is well regarded but having a down year. Indians get Puig (rental),Franmil Reyes (future DH?) & Logan Allen - Stroman & Bauer in same ballpark, though Bauer is regarded more highly for his ability to miss bats. How does the 2 deals compare?
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#378347) #
I think Bauer & Stroman both have another year of control
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#378348) #
Tbh I think I like SWR better than anything the Indians got.

But they still might move puig i guess.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#378349) #
Ah. Thanks.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#378350) #
The money involved is a major factor IMO.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#378351) #
I have to agree with UO - I like SWR better than Reyes who seems a future DH - Logan & Kay in same ballpark - but this deal does help the contending Indians with offense.
lexomatic - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#378352) #
For people wondering why Bauer for more return..  go back and look at last year. Stroman has been consistent, but never approaching that good. There's and upside- perceived or real- that Stroman doesnt have.He's also bigger,  not huge, but enough to not have Stroman's most obvious flaw. Strikeouts.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#378353) #
This probably means the Indians are out on Smoak.
rtcaino - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#378354) #
"Just to clarify: bought AT&T before _the fly-by-night stock_ crashed..."

Thanks for clarifying! I definitely would have spent some time googling about AT&T's historic crash.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#378355) #
Puig is a vet rental (he would have been of no value to the Jays), so the comparison is Kay and SWR versus Allen and Reyes. Both Stroman and Bauer have the same amount of control left. Stroman is going to be cheaper in arbitration next season. Bauer is likely the bigger asset due to his K rate and the season he had in 2018. I'll agree with ugly as well. I'd take Allen over Kay, but SWR makes more sense as a return for where the Jays are than anything the Indians got. Reyes already being a big leaguer, albeit a likely DH, obviously skews it in Cleveland's favor, but it doesn't appear like one deal was way better than the other.
dan gordon - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#378356) #
Bauer was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, with an ERA of 2.21, FIP of 2.44, WHIP of 1.089 and 221 K's in 175 IP. He was 6th in Cy Young voting. The Indians get Puig for the rest of this year, who has 0.9 bWAR so far this year, Reyes, whose bad defense pretty much cancels out his power, giving him 0.4 bWAR so far this year, and Allen, who has -0.5 bWAR so far in 8 games, with a 6.75 ERA, 5.95 FIP and 1.776 WHIP after struggling in AAA. Logan was regarded as a good prospect prior to this year and certainly still looks interesting at 22. Obviously Puig, as a rental only, has more value to the Indians than the Jays. For the Jays' purposes, I prefer their return for Stroman.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#378357) #
Puig has some value though - you canít ignore that. It may not have been a deal of interest to Toronto but I think itís a package with more value in it than what Toronto got. Maybe not by a huge amount.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#378358) #
It is only KC but SRF is having a good night.

Need the pen to come through now.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#378359) #
That's a weak return on Bauer. Logan Allen will get creamed in the AL, Puig is a rental and Reyes is "meh" especially if the balls ever change back.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#378360) #
My goodness. Amir Garrett is afraid of nothing.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#378361) #
Both puig and Reyes project as moderate above average bats (~110wrc+) without any defensive value. Are the Indians really that hard up offensively?
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#378362) #
Indians also get Scott moss and.victor nova but that's just volume not quality.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#378363) #
There is more value for Bauer but Puig will be gone in 2020... Reyes is everything that's wrong with baseball now but has some value. I'll take Kay and Woods-Richardson over Allen and Moss any day of the week despite Allen's presence on some Top 100 lists...
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#378364) #
Are the Indians really that hard up offensively?

He's got three okay hitters to cover DH and the three outfield spots, but two of them are occupied in a platoon at one of those positions (RF). It seems a strange allotment of resources, but what do I know.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#378365) #
Italics begone!
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#378367) #
"[B]ByRobertMurray[/B]

Text from an American League executive: "The Blue Jays' return for Stroman is embarrassing compared to what the Indians just got for Bauer."

eh.

for once I think i'm on the shapkins side here, because this is a statement based on Total Surplus Value not on best asset.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#378370) #
Uglyone - I think there is quite a bit more value in this deal for Cleveland. But itís also a deal that wouldnít have made much sense for the Jays.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 30 2019 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#378371) #
There may be but that's kinda why I don't like the surplus value argument in the first place. I think the value of getting a bunch of 1-2war guys is actually less than the sum of its parts.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#378372) #
That totally depends. If that 1-2 WAR player is fixing a black hole (replacing a -.5 player) in a lineup that can be incredibly valuable. 2 WAR players donít grow on trees.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#378373) #
I guess. If I'm a GM I tell myself that the one thing that is completely my responsibility is to find 1war players for free on a consistent basis.

And if they care so much about current marginal wins then why are they trading away Bauer for two ok bats with no defense?
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#378374) #
Because they have a boatload of pitching and no hitting. Itís an asset reallocation play.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:02 AM EDT (#378378) #
"Itís quite possible that, in dismantling the 2015/16 Jays, the front office will have somehow managed to not acquire a single good player (one who turns out to be above-average in the majors), even though theyíve traded away a number of valuable MLB players (Osuna, Donaldson, Stroman, Happ, Sogard, Smoak, Phelps, Smith, Hendriks, Oh, Martin)."

First of all, they already acquired Giles from this list who is a good player. Second, and I think this is where the issue is, fans cannot separate the idea of a good player or even a player they like, with "valuable". Of those-Osuna (great return for toxic player), Donaldson (didn't play for 3 months and was free agent), Stroman (we'll see), Happ (not good return but only had so so value), Sogard (minor league free agent going to be FA), Smoak (average 1B turning FA), Phelps (OK middle reliever coming off TJ), Smith (Panonne and Taylor was a very good return), Hendriks (Was a mediocre middle reliever who was actually DFAd last year and any team could have had for nothing), Oh (Wall was good return), Martin (Had negative value). There are really only three potential things to be upset about here. The Jays hanging on to Donaldson too long, not getting the right return for Happ (it was never going to be a great return but it was the wrong kind), and not getting enough for Stroman (We'll see on that but it's a legitimate complaint I think). Other than that, the complaining is about wanting great prospects for players who have almost no value. There is a massive gap between how teams value players and how fans do. Nobody is giving up a great prospect for a non-elite player so someone like Hatch is actually a very good return for someone like Phelps but people are upset because they want something that can never happen.
dan gordon - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:08 AM EDT (#378379) #
"2 WAR players donít grow on trees"

Nor do they arrive in trades for Trevor Bauer, apparently. The total WAR that Puig, Reyes and Allen have combined for this year is 0.8
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:18 AM EDT (#378381) #
"That type of upside pitcher (Allard) for a pure rental certainly makes me wonder if the return for Phelps wasn't a bit light."

Allard would get destroyed in the AL East. There's zero upside there. I think prospect lists often are out of sync with actual player value.

I think Padres did best getting a top prospect for some decent players. Cleveland did OK too because it fits their needs to try to win this year. No idea what Reds are doing.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:56 AM EDT (#378384) #
"L.Lynn for Luis Rijo (19, Rk)
L.Martin for W.Castro (21, AA)
J.Diekman for J.Javier (19, Rk)
F.Rodney for D.Chalmers (20, A)
D.Murphy for A.Monasterio (21, A+)
C.Gearrin for A.Mendoza (19, A) and T.Ortega (18, Rk)
C.Granderson for D.Orimoyole (21, A+)
D.Freese for J.Valdez (20, Rk)
X.Cedeno for B.Connell (19, Rk)"

First of all, you are way too obsessed with tying age to upside. Being young doesn't mean you have a better chance at being great. The three best Jays hitters in the past decade all became great in their mid to late 20's. There is more of a chance of Billy McKinney figuring something out and being a very good player than there is of Orimoyole getting there. There is a better chance of Hatch turning into a valuable player than some nothing A ball player. If you're saying you'd rather have a bad prospect in A ball than a decent one in in AA, then yes, the Jays could be getting worse prospects further from the majors. Second, you're mixing a lot of things up. You are including players traded that are all much better than the Phelps types. Lynn and Martin had way more value. You want to look at the returns for the more marginal guys?
Javier is 20 YO in low A with mediocre numbers.
Chalmers is 22 YO in Rookie ball
Orimoyole is mediocre as a 22 YO in high A
Valdez is a 21 YO in Rookie Ball who isn't doing very well.
Connell has a 44 WRC+ in Rookie Ball as a 20 YO.
A. Monasterio is bad in his first taste of AA but is young enough where maybe he can develop into a utility guy.

Youth does not equal upside.





scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#378386) #
Well, buyers are waiting to the deadline because sellers will have to take the best offers or get nothing.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#378387) #
Is that AL executive Cashman?

The Yankees could have traded for Bauer. Cleveland would have been happy to get Frazier.
Except Bauer is very expensive, so the NYY ownership would have said no on that deal.

Cleveland was desperate for some offense and didn't want to pay  Bauer's salary next year.
Bauer has a bad habit of winning arbitration.

The Reds traded their #1 prospect for Bauer who is expensive just so they can trade him back next year? They're not a contender.  It's funny that Puig was involved in a brawl on the day of the trade and that Bauer's last move for Cleveland was throwing a ball over the wall.

Reyes is 23. I'm not sure what this move does for the Padres. A good outfield prospect with a weak arm who hasn't hit in AA? I though they needed pitching.

scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#378388) #
Reyes will be a J. D. Martinez type for Cleveland.

This takes Smoak of the equation for Cleveland for sure.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#378389) #
I know Taylor Trammell is having a down year but I like the Padres buying low - I wonder if the Jays could have gotten into this deal - Smoak/Hernandez to the Indians and Trammell to the Jays.
christaylor - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#378390) #
I think I know what you mean, but I'm curious about your thinking, because a less charitable interpretation of your not liking the surplus-value argument is "I don't like the argument that a GM should improve the team any way they can."
jz6pwc - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#378391) #
I realize Bauer has better numbers that Stroman, but I view them the same. Both have personality issues, and both are very good pitchers. Baurer makes more, and I didn't see Cleveland throwing in cash. If I needed to pick between one of them for a wildcard game I would pick Stroman. For those reasons I think Cleveland got the better deal for the asset.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#378392) #
bauer had one year with better numbers than stroman, at least.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#378393) #
We are rebuilding towards a contender.

Personally I like all the moves Atkins does from a philosophical/strategic view. Draft, Int'l signings and vast collection of mediocre/a bit old prospects. Also some value pickups like Grichuk, A Diaz, Solarte etc ... He plays the quantity game well.

Trading Halladay and Stroman was unavoidable it seems. Too difficult to convince them to stay. I cannot and will not complain about that. I hope.

Acquiring Donaldson was a great move. He got paid a lot in his last 2 years here because the team thought spending on a contender was acceptable. I don't know if that policy is still there.

Another V good player beside Donaldson is C Yelich. You pay the prospect price and you get a strong, proven and cheap piece for your team. I think that strategy would be acceptable for the Jay's ownership.

Signing an expensive FA. No, maybe and probably very unlikely. R Martin is an example of that expensive FA. $ and number of years. Is the extra revenue worth it to the owners financially? Will heads roll if the team loses?

Is a rebuild that entails 90+ losses for X number of years acceptable to the Jay's ownership.

AA convinced them that spending a lot of money and losing was bad financially AND that spending a lot of money and winning was good financially.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#378394) #
Cleveland wanted some outfield/DH offense and to not have to pay Bauer next year.
Reyes is inexpensive.

Jays wanted strictly a high ceiling pitching prospect and didn't care about salaries.

scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#378395) #
If you compare Kansas City and Toronto, they've been rebuilding for a bit longer and for now they're just happy they'll draft ahead of the Jays. The Jays have an actual path to contention.

I think the payroll was Beeston trying to end it with a splash, not something AA could control.
It would have made a lot most sense to start spending earlier.

The Jays should be able to cobble a decent bullpen together no matter what.
Next year's rotation will have Shoemaker and something like 8-12 guys competing for the other 4 spots.

rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#378396) #
People are using the Bauer deal to 'prove' that the Jays didn't get enough for Stroman.
I think the Bauer deal proves that Cleveland have some sort of mind control powers to convince TWO other organizations to make bad trades.

That was a double steal for Cleveland.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#378397) #
I really don't think it was that great a trade for Cleveland. Allen is similar to Kay as a prospect (probably backend of rotation lefty) and Puig has negative value so you're talking about Reyes versus SWR. Reyes has value and maybe makes more sense for a contending team than a young pitcher but for a team like the Jays, I'd rather take a bit of a risk than settle on a pretty good corner of/DH type. I still think the Jays got a slightly light return but I'd take their return over what Cleveland got.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#378399) #
I think the FO is open to extensions, but only through team friendly contracts.
It's also easier to extend players when you're not selling.

Arguably, the only guys you should extend on expensive contracts are the ones on a Hall of Famer path.

Hernandez is on a tear. OPS+ up to 90 and OPS over 1.00 in the last 30 days.
Also made a couple of nice grabs. 7 walks and 22 Ks.

Drury is still good over that period.

SRF comes out with 0 earned run, 4 hits, 4 Ks, but 4 walks over 5.

The game plan seemed to have been to throw an avalanche of sliders.
I would have liked to see more fastballs to get ahead in the count and potentially freeze the bottom of the order. Was it really necessary to pitch around guys with no power who hit for .200?

pubster - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#378401) #
In July the Jays have scored 127 runs and allowed 120 runs. +7 runs differential.

Lets see what happens in August. No Stroman, but the young guys are getting more experience.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#378402) #
Over/under PM Jays trading 2.5 more players today?

I think I'd lean over. Hudson is gone. Smoak probably as well. Biagini? Other minor love? Sanchez? Does someone give 75% value on Giles? If so, probably same value you get next year anyway and you move him. Not expecting great pieces coming back from guys likely to be traded. More about clearing out some playing time for younger players.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#378403) #
An excellent piece at FanGraphs on how 40-man roster decisions impact trade decisions... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-40-man-situations-that-could-impact-trades/
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#378404) #
Galvis and Smoak are in the starting lineup (as of this moment) for a 1:15 EST game. The deadline is 4 EST. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#378405) #
apropos of nothing....but Mayza has turned himself into a pretty nice mlb reliever.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#378406) #
Sell everything that's not nailed down.

That Wilmer Font guy is growing on me - had a nice stint in tampa last year - would like to see him get more opportunities rest of season.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#378407) #
Don't forget the 2 minor league players Cleveland also received in the trade.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#378408) #
Or the money the Jays sent the Mets.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#378409) #
Career SP numbers for our Newish Youngish SP:

Borucki (25): 19gs, 5.5ip/gs, 100era-, 95fip-, 113xfip-, 1.9 avg war/32gs
Thornton (25): 21gs, 4.7ip/gs, 119era-, 102fip-, 108xfip-, 1.3 avg war/32gs
R-Foley (23): 10gs, 4.6ip/gs, 109era-, 118fip-, 108xfip-, 0.2 avg war/32gs
Wag'pck (25): 3gs, 5.0ip/gs, 131era-, 106fip-, 117xfip-, 0.5 avg war/32gs
Pannone (25): 10gs, 5.1ip/gs, 140era-, 129fip-, 140xfip-, -0.2 avg war/32gs
Paulino (25): 7gs, 4.6ip/gs, 169era-, 121fip-, 106xfip-, -0.9 avg war/32gs
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#378410) #
Sean Reid-Foley was a little lucky to escape with no runs against last night with 9 runners stranded in 5 innings, not to mention a dubious foul call on a KC groundball that appeared fair to everyone.
He has good stuff, but he's got to hit the strike zone more often. I hope the Jays keep him up for the rest of the season and give him a chance to learn at the major league level.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#378411) #
Logically the Jays needed a player like SWR more than Reyes or any of the other prospects the Indians received. There is a lot of risk with 18 year old SP's, but from a positional and upside standpoint, it was a far more prudent risk to take given where the Jays are in their rebuilding phase. The issue with the return for Toronto is they simply did not get enough back. They should have gotten at least 1 more meaningful piece, if not 2. If they did, then the optics of the deal would have been better, and they would have spread the risk enough to where they wouldn't be clinging to an 18 year old's development.

As far as today, I would also expect/hope that they clear out everyone. Smoak, Galvis, and Hudson at the very least. Biagini would be fine too if someone is offering a useful piece for him. I don't think they move Giles given his injury. Just have to use him in the 2nd half and see what you get for him in the off-season.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#378412) #
Switching from trades for a moment. I wonder what the wisdom of this crowd has to say about Biggio's defence at 2B? My two cents: the negatives are limited lateral range (he seems fine charging balls) and a "meh" arm (although I'm not sure its that much worse than a number of other 2B); the positives are that he turns the double play well, is excellent at tags and (notwithstanding last night) seems to have good hands. To me, that adds up to an average to slightly below average defender. I don't have the level of concern that he can't stick at 2B that I do with Guerrero at 3B.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#378413) #
@Joelsherman1
Aaron Sanchez has a 6.03 ERA in 23 starts but great arm, small SP/RP market (Sanchez can do either) and so #Bluejays getting lots of hits on him and real chance he moves.

@JonHeyman
There is interest in Aaron Sanchez. Many contenders see him as a bullpen star. Heíd prefer to start, however, and believes he has straightened out his long-running blister issues.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#378414) #
Given the blowback the FO has gotten on the Stroman trade I wonder if it will affect what they do today - hopefully not.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#378415) #
Hey Marc, I thought it was my job to shill Fangraphs on this board. Just kidding

I read Eric and Kiley's 40-man piece last night. One thing that caught my eye - Yankees have a ton of decisions with one being Michael King way down in the "possible" group. He's the guy they got from the Marlins for Caleb Smith. Cashman never loses trades?
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#378416) #
Switching from trades for a moment. I wonder what the wisdom of this crowd has to say about Biggio's defence at 2B? My two cents: the negatives are limited lateral range (he seems fine charging balls) and a "meh" arm (although I'm not sure its that much worse than a number of other 2B); the positives are that he turns the double play well, is excellent at tags and (notwithstanding last night) seems to have good hands. To me, that adds up to an average to slightly below average defender. I don't have the level of concern that he can't stick at 2B that I do with Guerrero at 3B.

That's about my take.  It seems that Bichette has come a long way defensively, and I think that together they'll make a fine double play combination for a long time. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#378417) #
anyone who believes that Stroman is seen as less than what he actually is, for a number of reasons, should feel good about Sanchez being seen as more than he is, for a number of reasons.

we could probably get a nice piece for sanchez, despite his lengthy suckage.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#378418) #
Biggio doesn't look like a second baseman, he is somewhat stiff in his actions and has the other flaws you mentioned. But he could stick there.

The problem gets worse if you have several below average fielders in the infield. I don't think Vlad will get to average, or near it, he might have one more year at third in a non-competitive team, tops.

So I would move Vlad, and accept that one infielder is slightly below average.

Caveat, I do think Biggio can improve with experience and although the size is small, I think Bichette can be close to league average at short.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#378420) #
Jays have now lost Tampa Bay with Cleveland for a Smoak suitor. Jesus Aguolar to TB. May be down to Houston.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#378421) #
Smoak and Hudson should be gone.
Yankees could use Smoak. Rays could take him to keep him out of New York.
Almost every team could use Hudson.

Biagini is OK and nobody should care about controlling an arbitration eligible middle reliever.
Biagini's prediction is that he gets traded and traded back once the other team hear his jokes.
Kay seems to have a sense of humor as well.

Nobody will meet the prize for Sanchez.

Galvis should be gone, but the Rays were the only one needing a shortstop.
Will someone take him just in case of injury? Seems dubious.

Just is a top closer. If he does the same next year, he'll still be worth a lot.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#378422) #
I would rather play everyone down a defensive position to get elite defense across the diamond rather than up a position and be stuck with bad defense everywhere, myself.

That means Bo at 2B, Vladdy at 1B/DH, Biggio in LF/1B/DH.

And there seems to be enough promise of plus left-side IF defense from the group of Smith, Groshans, Hiraldo, Martinez that we won't need to force guys to stay over there if they're not legit good over there.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#378423) #
bah. Borucki on the IL again.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#378424) #
left elbow inflammation.

bah again.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#378425) #
Nationals seem like possible fit for Smoak. Apparently, Rays were never interested.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#378426) #
Between the minor and the Majors the Jays are just chewing up and spitting out pitchers this year. What's most alarming is the number of players to go on the IL, come off and go back on for the same reason or related reason.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#378427) #
Vlad is right handed. Not great at first base. Drury got hurt trying to catch a ball last night.
I don't think he can pick up a throw from a great defensive third baseman, so instead of 1 base error,  you might end up with a 2 or 3 bases error on the same play.
Biggio has played 2nd base since high school and he's 24. We should not expect a late defensive breakthrough.

The improvements will be at the plate.


Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#378428) #
I think that Bichette is already league average at shortstop and is going to be better than that next year.  Vladdy on the other hand is a long way from league average at third base, in my view. 

scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#378429) #
Every team deals with pitching injuries. Borucki has hardly pitched this year.

Anyway, I assume Thornton will just swap place with Borucki.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#378430) #
I was looking at Smoak to the Nats a while back. Zimmerman is out for a while and if the Jays are willing to take on the balance of his $18 million this year, $2 million buyout next, Nats should pony up something decent. The salary relief would also give the Nats money to strengthen their bullpen.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#378431) #
Obviously not everybody is average or better.
Below average defenders needs to be offensive players.
The only positions where you can't have bad defenders is catcher, shortstop and centerfield.

Right now the choice is Guerrero at 3rd and a power hitter at first or Drury at 3rd and Guerrero at first.
There are a lot more plays at first than at 3rd. Especially with a flyball pitcher.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#378432) #
There are a lot more plays at first than at 3rd. Especially with a flyball pitcher.

??
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#378433) #
If Atkins gets anything of value for Sanchez, the haters need to back off on the Stroman trade.

Because Sanchez seems untradeable to me.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#378434) #
Mayza has turned himself into a pretty nice mlb reliever.

Agreed. I thought Mayza and Giles were the best guys in the bullpen last year, once they stopped sending Mayza back to AAA every two weeks. (I hate that stuff!) This year he wasn't too good in April but he's been excellent ever since. He's allowed 11 runs in the last 3 months and 4 of them came at the end of a 15-2 blowout.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#378435) #
In lieu of ďhatersĒ (overdone), I would use the word ďskeptics.Ē
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#378436) #
In the history of baseball, guys with arms like Sanchez have always been tradable no matter how badly theyíve pitched. There is always someone who thinks they can fix whatís broken. Look at Edwin Jackson as Exhibit A. I wonít be surprised at all if they get a decent offer for him. Whether the Jays will take it? Who knows. I suspect thereís someone in the Jays organization who thinks they can fix Sanchez.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#378437) #
That means Bo at 2B, Vladdy at 1B/DH, Biggio in LF/1B/DH.

I want to see Bichette's arm a little more and convince myself that he's not the new Russ Adams (in the field, in the field!). I sure like his awareness and instincts out there. The thing with Guerrero at first base - I definitely like the arm, but I'm not at all sold on his range, and I'm really worried about his hands. And it seems to me that at first base the order of importance is hands, range, arm. So if he can't stick at 3b - and is anyone actually optimistic about that, or are we all just waiting for Groshans - I think his future is going to see him at DH for at least half the games, and spelling someone else at the corners (maybe both, maybe just 1B) the rest of the time.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#378438) #
The idea that Aaron Sanchez is untradeable seems silly to me especially after his last 2 outings and especially if a team intends to use him as a multi-innings reliever this season.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#378439) #
Hudson to Nationals.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#378440) #
Given the blowback the FO has gotten on the Stroman trade I wonder if it will affect what they do today - hopefully not.
Like this FO or not, I haven't seen anything from them that indicates they are concerned about public opinion - definitely a good thing.  I may not agree with their vision / approach, but I prefer a flawed vision to an inconsistent one. 

I still think we are better off with Sanchez trying to rebuild value and consistency than dealing him at his lowest point.
aarne13 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#378441) #
Hudson Kyle Johnston
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#378442) #
Kyle johnston, 23yr old, A+, middling numbers.

I'll bite my tongue here.

this is actually his 22yr old season, as he just turned 23 this month, but still old for his level by a good bit.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#378443) #
Might as well send any combo of Hudson/Giles/Sanchez to Wahington too.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#378444) #
Every trade for a pitcher.

Johnston has a good fastball and slider so most evaluations think he is bullpen material.

Jays are cornering the market on fringy starters.
mathesond - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#378445) #
"Jays are cornering the market on fringy starters."

I'm sure there are plenty of fringy starters to go around.
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#378446) #
Johnston may not be much but they basically got something for nothing.

That was the easy one. Now move Sanchez, Smoak, and Galvis...

scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#378447) #
27th in the Nationals system by MLB pipeline.
Doesn't have to be protected until 2020.
Projects as a reliever with a fastball/slider combo plus the occasional changeup

pubster - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#378448) #
Kyle johnston apparantly can hit 96mph.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#378449) #
Iím assuming Gurriel was lifted due to injury?
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#378450) #
That is what is being reported. Leg injury.
Jevant - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#378451) #
Was a great catch. Walked off on his own steam. Probably more precautionary than anything.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#378452) #
Cavan Biggio is now 8-0 stealing bases.  That was good timing. 
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#378453) #
According to Gregor Chisholm, 'right knee discomfort'
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#378454) #
The Jays a Royals are through six innings in less than an hour and a half. A getaway day game for two teams not in contention.

The players want to get back to the clubhouse to see all the trades.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#378455) #
Smoak drives in the tying run and then Galvis hits a tie-breaking homer between 2:30 and 3:00.  Speaking of nice timing.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#378456) #
Quality starts from Pannone and Waguespack, five shutout innings from Reid-Foley. Time to get excited!

Oh wait. The Royals. In Kansas City.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#378457) #
Knee discomfort for Gurriel. First: rpriske

Jevant - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#378458) #
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/nationals-add-relief-help-in-daniel-hudson/

This actually sounds not at all a bad return for Hudson. If his stuff plays up in relief at all, could be a contributor in the fairly near future.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#378459) #
Quality starts from Pannone and Waguespack, five shutout innings from Reid-Foley. Time to get excited!

Oh wait. The Royals. In Kansas City.

Conversely, it's nice to see the kids at bat looking comfortable. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#378460) #
https://twitter.com/theScore/status/1156642234042896384

man that is some nice power for Bo.

buck and pat thought it was nothing off the back and it landed deep in left. just kept going.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#378461) #
Who is the closer today....Shafer?
mathesond - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#378463) #
Shafer shuts 'em down
pops - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#378464) #
Does anyone know why Mayza got the win if Waguespack went 6 and the Jays scored in the top of the 7th?
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#378465) #
It's nice to see the Jays hitting dingers in Kansas City.
pops - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#378466) #
Ok, they changed it post. They originally gave it Mayza..Ignore.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#378467) #
Biagini to houston
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#378468) #
On the surface the Mariners got more from the Nationals for Elias, 15th prospect vs 27th, but they are both grade 40.
The Mariners got a lefty reliever already in AAA who has already be exposed to the Rule V draft.
The Jays took a RHP who is still starting in A+ and doesn't need to be added to the 40 roster until fall 2020.

#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#378469) #
Breaking!!! Jays get Brock Stewart from LA!!!

Per @BuffaloBIsons twitter. "The #BlueJays have claimed RHP Brock Stewart from the LA Dodgers and optioned him to the #Bisons. Righty made 16 starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City this year (5-7, 7.34ERA, 67K, 76.0IP)"

Well, that's exciting!
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#378470) #
Sanchez gone.....
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#378471) #
Biagini traded to Houston, and Sanchez traded somewhere. No names yet.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#378472) #
Sanchez and Biagini to the Astros.
aarne13 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#378473) #
Greinke to Astros too :o
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#378474) #
For Derek Fisher, a 25 year old outfielder? Seems very underwhelming to me, unless there is another part.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#378475) #
For Derek Fisher.

Fisher is terrible. Think a slightly more athletic Billy McKinney. He would have been fair value for Biagini alone maybe.

This front office is so bad.....
Paul D - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#378476) #
Does this mean that Justin Smoak and Devon Travis are the only players left from the playoff teams?

Life comes at you quick
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#378477) #
Donít like this trade at all because Fisher seems exactly like what they already have tweener corner OF type. They didnít have to trade Sanchez either. Put him in relief next year, donít get it.
christaylor - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#378478) #
It is only 4:20 right now... let's see.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#378479) #
sanchez and biagini for a 25yr old speedy 4th OF type.

sweet.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#378480) #
If that's all the return then that gets a major thumbs down from me. What is the point of that deal? It's like the Phelps deal - pointless.

I have no issue with the idea of moving Hudson or the return. Both the deal and the type of return make a lot of sense to me.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#378481) #
That can't be it.
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#378482) #
People on this board really over value the Jays. If Fisher is a big leaguer then in becomes a good deal. Neither Sanchez or Biagini have a place on the next contending team. Getting anything for them is a plus. I would like to see that Smoak and Galvis moved too.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#378483) #
I even think Sanchez sucks and even I find this strange. WHat was the urgency to trade a 26yr old with a great arm at low value when all you've been doing is collecting lesser 25yr old arms who also suck?
mathesond - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#378484) #
From the current FG chat:

Rivervillian
4:28 Am I crazy or was the Biagini-Sanchez return for the jays underwhelming
Kiley McDaniel
4:28 Neither had huge value, Fisher could be 5 years of an everyday OF
VB
4:28 What's the story on Derek Fisher? Seems like not a lot to get back for Sanchez + Biagini
Kiley McDaniel
4:28 I guess that means it was fair?
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#378485) #
Jays cornering the market on toolsy, 3rd/4th outfielder types.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#378486) #
Apparently Cal Stevenson going too so more than Fisher must be coming back...right???
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#378487) #
bigger deal.

we also traded Cal Stevenson (sorry, Mike Green).
braden - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#378488) #
And 7th starter types.

Cal Stevenson is in the deal, too. Maybe something more is coming back?
jester00 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#378489) #
The DBacks got the Astros 3-5 and 22 prospects for Greinke. Granted none in the top 100, but still.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#378490) #
Jays also trading Cal Stevenson??? Apparently they are getting something more back. Better be something good. Stevenson looks like a player.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#378491) #
Even if you think Sanchez and Biagini suck, that completely misses the point. There was absolutely no need to trade garbage for garbage today. The Jays donít need what they got back. They werenít about to lose what they trade away. What they traded couldnít have less value than it does today. What they traded might be worth more later than it was today. That deal is just pointless.
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#378492) #
Stevenson too? Well in THAT case, yeah, there should be more.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#378493) #
Abort comment:)
PeterG - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#378494) #
Scott Mitchell reports that more coming to Jays....players not informed yet.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#378495) #
What Arizona got for an older and more expensive Greinke does not reflect well on the Stroman deal.
aarne13 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#378496) #
/fire Everything is fine. /fire
grjas - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#378497) #
Fisher? Seriously. For one of them maybe, but for both? How many mediocre outfielders do they need?

Honestly, if thatís the best they can do they may as well wait but it seems their mindset was sell at all costs. Reminds me of a liquidation sale. ďEverything must go!Ē
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#378498) #
I hope itís Josh James. Astros traded all their prospects. Not much else left.
braden - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#378499) #
Greinke is also much, much better.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#378500) #
He is much better, but for that return I am assuming Arizona is eating some salary.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#378501) #
Am I crazy or was the Biagini-Sanchez return for the jays underwhelming
Kiley McDaniel
4:28 Neither had huge value, Fisher could be 5 years of an everyday OF
braden - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#378502) #
Ben Nicholson Smith says nothing else coming back. I don't understand this trade at all. They actually added a prospect to get it done?
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#378503) #
I would take a gamble on Francis Martes.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#378504) #
Apparently might just be Fisher coming back. If Jays had to add Stevenson to this deal to get Fisher, thatís unforgivable and Atkins deserves to be ripped for it.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#378505) #
Aaron Sanchez, despite being obviously shaken, is quite composed and articulate in his farewell interview. He has seemed to me to be a little tone deaf in interviews this year, but said all the right things this time and seemed genuine. A fresh start can't hurt the man.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#378506) #
Maybe Shapiro & Atkins are burning everything before they leave!!
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#378507) #
Just Fisher. Disgusted. Fisher is a 4th of type. Maybe a bit better if things go well. Jays have like five of these guys already and the Jays gave up real value to get him. Just an awful trade.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#378508) #
There is  some 40/25 roster adjustment to do.
Biagini, Sanchez going to the Houston 25. Greinke, too.  What's coming out?
Derek Fisher is probably coming back just because he was on the 40.

PeterG - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#378509) #
Have to agree that it looks bad if just Fisher.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#378510) #
If Fisher is all you can get then why make the trade? Sanchez was pitching better recently and his value could only improve. Why not wait until the off-season?
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#378511) #
I am honoured that the Astros share my appraisal of Stevenson.
Kelekin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#378513) #
I try not to be part of the hot takes department, but I just do not understand any of this. The only outfield position where we lack depth is center field, and we just got rid of our best full-season ball CF, who has just been absolutely lights out as a prospect.

I can at least accept the Stroman trade (even if it is short a lottery pick or two), but this trade initially comes across as some absolute garbage.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#378514) #
Well, at least we got Brock Stewart ...
This trade deadline has hurt my head.  I haven't much liked this FO since day one, but have always hoped I was wrong about them. 

It seems Atkins shouldn't be making trades.  I like Cal Stevenson as much as I like Fisher. 
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#378515) #
Winners: Astros, Reds, Padres, Mets, Cubs, Giants and Cleveland

Losers: A's, Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals and Yankees

Reds, Mets, Padres and Giants are ready for next year while the other winners are all in.
pubster - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#378516) #
Cal Stevenson is 22 years old playing in single A.

He's old for his level. I thought that's the kind of prospect everyone dislikes around here.
grjas - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#378517) #
Even the Mets held on to their players when they couldnít get a good price. If Fisher is all they got for what now is 3 players, then Atkins absolutely should be canned.

Might be time to switch to lacrosse.
ayjackson - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#378518) #
Why did we include Stevenson? Or Sanchez? Or Biagini for that matter? Just why?
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#378519) #
If Stevenson can't CF and can't punish the baseball enough to keep pitchers with command out of the heart of the plate, then it makes sense to deal him. But Holy Eff they had better be right, because this deal looks pointless enough without him, and if he keeps looking like something as he moves up, Atkins should take a long walk through a very short unemployment line.

I mean, Fisher could become enough of a thing, but wow, he should not cost 2 usable and controllable bullpen pieces and a possible CF prospect. The Stroman trade was light, but at least there was something to really like coming back... but this. Fisher had better have a good answer to "What's the point?" coming. Ugh.

As for the other deals, /shrug Sure. Phelps and Hudson each for someone who does a thing interesting, why not.

This is swiftly becoming the worst time of year, when this should be the brief respite in a non-contender's calendar.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#378520) #
Winners: Astros, Reds, Padres, Mets, Cubs, Giants and Cleveland

Losers: A's, Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cardinals and Yankees
Front Office working at AA level: Blue Jays
Kelekin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#378521) #
22 at High-A for a college player is not old for their level. High school player, sure, why not.

The issue is that Stevenson has shown to have four tools and excelling at all of them.

It's not even that trading Stevenson is that big of a deal, it's that it was just unnecessary. Why would they deal from a position we lack prospects in, for a person at a position we have no shortage of options?
pubster - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#378522) #
Let's wait and see what happens.

I see too often people getting upset about terrible decisions that the FO makes that end up working out.

I doubt any of these moves will be as bad as Dickey for Syndergaard plus. Hopefully the FO knows what they are doing!
DH - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#378523) #
I have never been more confused (about the Jays) than I am today. Sanchez + Biagini + a prospect for another version of Billy McKinney?
Kelekin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#378524) #
I 100% agree individually none of these deals are as bad as that one, or some from the 90s. However, on its' surface, the Jays have had a bad haul in comparison to pretty much every other team on the trade market.

In order for this to have been a good deadline, you basically need Kay and SWR to hit, Fisher, and maybe one of those TB PTBNLs we don't know about.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#378525) #
On the positive sides, both the Yankees and Red Sox did nothing.
There will be a lot of unhappy fans if those teams falters.
We're still looking at a top 5 pick and the Jays have been drafting well.

However, I don't understand how it was necessary to add a prospect to get Fisher.
Houston was desperate to make room on their 40.

Fisher isn't a chess master.
He has power, but not enough contact.
He has speed, but does have good read, so it's mostly just a plus on the base paths, but he's not a base stealer.
He does not have a good arm, so he's mostly a left fielder.




scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#378526) #
The one thing I keep circling to is that we do have an ex Astros coach.
Could this be just another version of the Socrates Brito move?

Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#378527) #
I have no problem trading any of the guys the Jays traded, but Fisher is not the guy you go after. I hope he proves us all wrong and obviously, Iíll be rooting for him, but Jays are flush with similar players and Astros didnít need or particularly want Fisher. His isnít be some franchise altering trade. The Jays didnít give up anything great, just seems like a terrible use of resources.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#378528) #
I will unretract my retraction of my earlier comment. Now itís not on a pointless deal but a harmful one as well. Sigh.

My feelings about this deadline deal sell off are the same as I feel generally about the FO. For every good/sensible thing they do thereís an equally poor/inexplicable offset. Itís definitely frustrating. This might top it all though, because if you had to ask yourself what is the one significant position player need in the organization? Itís a LH, CF who can get on base and play defence.

The losses are going to pile up for the remainder of this year and next. Thatís going to be tough. But games like today help.
pubster - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#378529) #
Aaron Sanchez FB is down 2mph from 2017. His ratios are bad.
Joe Biagini is a dime a dozen RP.

I don't expect much from Derek Fisher (looks like a AAAA player), but I'm reading that he's got plus power and plus speed. That's interesting at least.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#378530) #
I am now open for accepting all apologies.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#378531) #
but I'm reading that he's got plus power and plus speed.

And he's 26 in August. And has a 76 OPS+ in 300-odd plate appearances. And he's a corner outfielder.

Who gets bumped to give him playing time?

uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#378532) #

scott_stinson
On a conference call, Jays GM Ross Atkins says the team's moves have 'turned 14 years of control into 42 years of control'.


Icepick to my skull, please.
jester00 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#378533) #
Braves just designated Luiz Gohara. There's a guy I'd take a chance on. Big power lefty, high 90's fastball, power slider. Shoulder problems/weight problems, but only 23. Considering the arms we picked up through this deadline, he seems like he'd fit, albeit next year at the earliest.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#378534) #

Laura Armstrong

@lauraarmy
Ross Atkins says #BlueJays have targeted Derek Fisher for a long time, says the OF's handedness, speed, control, trajectory "couldn't fit better" with young core.

Well, he's not wrong that he fits right in with everything else they've been doing.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#378535) #
I doubt any of these moves will be as bad as Dickey for Syndergaard plus. Hopefully the FO knows what they are doing!
When you swing for the fences, sometimes you strike out. One the plus side, I think every one here agrees that trading V Wells for a net positive, and the deal to get Donaldson were MAJOR positive trades.

So far, this FO has had a couple of seemingly positive trades (Teoscar, for example, seems to be a win), but even for those, whether we won or not seems to depend on the day on which you ask - 2 months ago Teoscar would have looked like a loss. But, they have a LOT of, IMHO, outright losses. Even if the players we got back hit their ceiling, they won't be nearly as good as the player we traded. THAT's the problem. Fisher's ceiling looks like Stevenson's (or worse), just a couple of years closer. And for that, we gave up Stevenson, Sanchez and Biagini. WTF (Why The Fisher)?  Now we'll trade 3 prospects to get back a Biagini-like reliever...
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#378536) #
I second trying to acquire Luiz Gohara
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#378537) #
Based on that quote my guess is that they are going to try him in CF. I really hope that isnít the plan.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#378538) #
Is there still a ban here on the nickname-that-shall-not-be-named?
grjas - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#378539) #
I doubt any of these moves will be as bad as Dickey for Syndergaard plus.

I disagree. The Dickey trade was similar- though less successful- to the Cone trade that cost us a future all star. It didnít get us a ring, but without Dickey itís highly unlikely we would have made the playoffs.

In this scenario, we are trading a depreciated asset that was beginning to turn it around, and two other serviceable players for a poor defensive outfielder who has shown know ability to hit in the majors. In almost a yearís worth of at bats. We now have so many middling outfielders in the 23 to 26 age range I canít even keep track, so why on earth do we get another?

The strategy of this FO seems to be to throw as much crap as possible against the wall and hope a Bautista drops out. Yikes.
Jonny German - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#378540) #
Yuck. Iíve tried to give this front office the benefit of the doubt, and it does seem like they do a good job of drafting / signing international free agents / player development. But trade after trade looks pointless, or very low upside, or a light return, or redundant players coming back. Often a combination of those things.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#378541) #
On a conference call, Jays GM Ross Atkins says the team's moves have 'turned 14 years of control into 42 years of control'.

Is any GM worse at the public speaking component of the job than Atkins? He never says anything of substance and makes so many inane comments you want to bash your head on your desk. I want to say we're being unfair to him because we don't listen to other GMs public comments in the same detail, but I'm losing my ability to be generous to this front office.

rtcaino - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#378542) #
"It didnít get us a ring, but without Dickey itís highly unlikely we would have made the playoffs."

Not sure I can agree with that.

Syndergaard pitched 150 IP in 2015.
Vulg - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#378543) #
Meh, after the Donaldson for Merryweather fiasco I figured weíd get more of the same. At least the FO has been consistent in its complete inability to read a market or negotiate effectively!

What a debacle.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#378545) #
Jonny - I'm actually in awe (not in a good way) of the massive gulf in quality between amateur scouting and pro scouting in this organization.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#378546) #
Without Dickey there's probably no need to trade for Price and then you can probably get something useful for d'Arnaud.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#378547) #

Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#378548) #
"I disagree. The Dickey trade was similar- though less successful- to the Cone trade that cost us a future all star. It didnít get us a ring, but without Dickey itís highly unlikely we would have made the playoffs. "

Dickey didn't even have a 2 WAR season with the Jays. He had 5.4 WAR over 3 years for $36 million in salary. Syndergaard and D'arnaud have already provided around 28 WAR for about $23 million and have 3 more years combined under team control. It was a disaster of a trade. I hate this trade but it's not going to turn out that badly.

"We now have so many middling outfielders in the 23 to 26 age range I canít even keep track, so why on earth do we get another?"

Yes, this is the question. I understand loving tools but you can't just keep collecting these guys because you love how they theoretically can turn out.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#378549) #
If Gurriel does not hit the IL, they got Alford, Fisher, Davis, Pompey and Brito fighting for AB in Buffalo.
Brito and Pompey are out of options, Fisher and  Alford will be out of options after this year.

PeterG - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#378550) #
Maybe they are planning to trade Alford in off season?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#378551) #
I was waiting since my winners vs losers post to see Forrest Whitley's name come across the ticker as a late add...that never happened.

Biggest Winner: Astros
BIggest Loser: Blue Jays

Greinke netted the Dbacks 4 prospects all better than Fischer AND they're (Astros) paying down most of his salary. The last trade Atkins made is inexcusable.

It's becoming clear to me that the team is trying to compete by having no holes around the diamond just balanced players and they want to do it on a shoestring budget. Why else would they trade everybody for non high upside prospects? If they wanted an OF they could have traded Stevenson and an A ball pitcher for Castellanos and resigned him.

ayjackson - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#378552) #
What a complete shatshow.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#378553) #
At the same time, I like the Stroman trade more. The returns for players not named Greinke were just very underwhelming, mostly meh prospects. also, what are th Yankees doing? Cashman seems unwilling to make the move that puts the team over the top,
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#378554) #
SWR is one high upside guy the rest are meh. Is it possible to get my season ticket renewal deposit back?
Jonny German - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#378555) #
Iím not a poker fan but I am reminded of that famous quote: ďIf youíve been in the game 30 minutes and donít know who the patsy is, youíre Ross AtkinsĒ.
grjas - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#378556) #
Well we can debate the Dickey trade all we want (his 214 innings at a 105+ ERA is nothing to sneeze at), but the point is there was some logic at the time of the trade for swapping a promising yet an unproven youngster for a pitcher whoíd just won the Cy Young.

This trade, on the other hand has no logic.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#378557) #
Looking at the bright side, positions 30-40 on the Jays' top prospect list look a helluva stronger today than they did a week ago:)
rpriske - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#378558) #
I still believe the Stroman trade was fine. (Not amazing, but fine.) The Hudson and Phelps trades were adequate.

But this last one was straight up bad. Unless they have reason to believe Fisher will be an everyday asset, there is no justifying it. I wouldn't have traded Stevenson straight up for Fisher.
dan gordon - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#378559) #
I thought they could get something a bit better for Hudson than Johnston, who was not particularly good in his 1st 2 pro seasons, but has shown improvement this year. The K/BB ratio is better, as the strikeouts are up and the walks are down. Still, not as good a prospect as I would have thought.

Stevenson was one of my favourite Blue Jay prospects, so I hate the fact that they gave him up. Sanchez seemed to be possibly turning things around. The Jays say they have been after Fisher for a long time. They obviously believe in the guy who OPS'd .967 in AAA in 2017, in a very good pitchers' park in Fresno. He was regarded as a terrific prospect after that season. The Jays obviously feel Fisher can handle CF, or they wouldn't have given up so much to get him - there's no room for him in RF or LF. His range numbers as a CF in the minors are lower than Stevenson's or Alford's, way lower than Chavez Young's, but better than Pompey's. Fisher's defensive numbers in a small sample in mlb seem decent. If the Jays are right about Fisher being able to handle CF and he hits like he was projected to hit a couple of years ago, they've made a good trade, but I'm skeptical that Fisher is going to be as good as they think he will be, I don't like giving up Stevenson, and I think Sanchez still has a fair bit of upside. Looks like a pretty bad trade at this point.
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#378560) #
The Houston affiliate in AAA is now Round Rock.
This year Fisher has played 29 games in centerfield, 19 in right and 4 in left.
He's hitting .286 with an OBP of .401, but it's the PCL.
He has 40 walks and 67 Ks.
He's 3th in OBP behind Yordan Alvarez (that guy is a freak) and Joshua Rojas.
He's 5th in slugging behind those 2 and Jack Mayfield and Kyle Tucker.

If he can show the same plate discipline at the MLB level, he could be interesting.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#378561) #
The guys on Tim and Sid were talking to Dan Shulman who is calling the Astros game tonight. Shulman asked the Astros players about Fisher and they told him that Fisher was more suited to a corner outfield spot, yet Atkins thinks he is an everyday centerfielder.

I,too, don't mind the other deals but don't like this one at all. I don't know how you could get much value for Sanchez, but he could be a really good piece for the Astros. I'd like to cheer for them in the playoffs but they still have Osuna.
pops - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#378562) #
I don't know what to think about this. I'm going to ignore the Stroman, Hudson and Phelps deals for now. Not thrilled about any of them, but I can live with it

However, I can't think of another trade that is this bad optically on paper as the Astros deal. Is this a salary dump? Is this how we're recouping the money we sent in the Stroman or Phelps deals? Are we that enamoured by Fisher that we decided to give up two live controllable arms with one year of control and a prospect on top of that for a lottery ticket? Is this Atkins on his own, or is it being driven by consensus across Shapiro and Lacava? Is this the end of the Drury OF experiment? Is this the end of Alford? So many questions, and none of them really have any answers today

I feel bad for Stroman. Sanchez gets dealt to a contender with a strong chance to win the WC, while Stroman has almost zero shot to play for anything this year.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#378563) #
Whoa. I fall asleep and this happens and we're closing in on 350 comments? Emergency new thread.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#378564) #

Is there still a ban here on the nickname-that-shall-not-be-named?


Yes, the offending post has been deleted.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#378570) #
hah. well, that joke backfired.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#378573) #
"The guys on Tim and Sid were talking to Dan Shulman who is calling the Astros game tonight. Shulman asked the Astros players about Fisher and they told him that Fisher was more suited to a corner outfield spot, yet Atkins thinks he is an everyday centerfielder."


this FO's take on the importance of defense has always reminded me of the analytics takes circa 2006.
ayjackson - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#378577) #
censorship alive and well; satire is dead
eldarion - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#378585) #
I genuinely confused as to why the FO didn't simply choose to bring back Sanchez as a reliever next season, perhaps even alternating saves with Giles, and then trade both of them at the deadline. This was textbook selling low on an asset. Sanchez is a failure as a starter but could have been something useful as a reliever.

And I was kinda pulling for Stevenson to make it, even though he probably wouldn't have been a full-time player with the Jays.

All of the pieces in that Astros trade are just kinda meh. Biagini was the most valuable one and even he was probably fungible as a reliever. I don't get all of the consternation online about it but I do think the FO could have done a better job managing its assets.
christaylor - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#378586) #
I don't have any strong feelings about the deadline deals but this is the type of thread that deserves a bookmark.

Not for nothing -- the astute Red Sox and Yankees fans I just talked to seem even unhappier with their FO right now than folks here... so there's that...
scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#378624) #
I think the FO did not want to have to deal with Boras, otherwise they could have sent Sanchez to AAA to convert him to a reliever and gain an extra year of control.

Fisher was up to 7th in the Astros system at some point but had lost his ranking.
He's like a left handed Alford.

I'm mostly annoyed that they couldn't just give Smoak to a contender.

The important thing, for the rest of the year, is to start looking at the pitching prospects on the 40 roster.
You  guys remember Ricky Romero? He never figured out the top level of the minors.
They brought him up anyway and he did better in Toronto than in AAA.
He won 13 games with an ERA of 4.30, than 14 with an ERA of 3.73 than 15 with an ERA of 2.92.
Might as well see if the fringe guys on the 40 can do something like that.


scottt - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#378630) #
The losers are the deadline are never the sellers.
The big losers this year are the Yankees and the Red Sox.
The Brewers added Faria, Pomeranz, Lyles, Meh.

Cashman tried to trade Frazier for Bobby Ray, but the Diamondbacks wanted 3 more prospects including Schmidt who was the Yankees first round pick in 2017.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#378634) #
Hate to change the subject, but just want to point out the sweep of KC was the Jays 1st since April vs Oakland.

scottt - Thursday, August 01 2019 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#378644) #
Bo is great, intense and aggressive.
Biggio is calculating.
Guerrero looks happy.

I guess they send McKinney down and bring up Fisher that they like so much.


ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 01 2019 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#378649) #
Brandon Drury turned a few nice plays at third base yesterday and I'm not that confident that Vlad Jr. would have made them. Vlad really needs to have a good offseason this year -- lose some weight to gain flexibility and quickness, and have a ton of practice groundballs hit to him. He may be top hitting prospect but he's got work to do to become a complete player.
scottt - Thursday, August 01 2019 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#378658) #
Yesterday was an outfielder showcase with Waguespack on the mound.
The departure of Stroman and Sanchez makes things easier for Vladdy.

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