Best curveball to Robberse? Chad Dallas and Kendry Rojas are also in the mix, but I thought Jackson Rees had the best curveball by far.

Irv Carter brings some Stroman vibes, including the odd hesitation move.

Sorry, why is it odd?

It's to mess up the timing of the batter. Messing with the timing of the batter has always been done but now it's a little bit more profound.

I think odd means occasionally here, not odd as strange or weird. An example would be," I don't golf regularly, I just go out the odd time."

Did Eric Pardinho switch to OF?

Did Eric Pardinho switch to OF?

He's following in the footsteps of C.J. Van Eyk.

Noted and corrected.

I expect Moreno and Pearson to graduate from this list. That would leave Groshans and O Martinez as the only 2 significant prospects left in the system. All other prospects are young and unproven or older and not considered elite.

Some proven elite Manoah, and close to proven elite (Kirk) prospects have graduated. SWR and A Martin also considered elite but unproven were traded. So these 4 off our prospect list makes our system poor.

This is a good way to go from strong to weak. Strong waves. Wave #1 Vlad, Bo etc... in 2019. Followed by wave #2 2020/21 Kirk and Manoah with Pearson in this wave as far as I am concerned. Wave #3 2022/23/24 would be Moreno, Groshans and Martinez most likely.

Our system is very exciting.

Noted and corrected.

I thought my prospect knowledge had dropped to embarrassingly low levels.

Beltre and Tiedemann seem like significant prospects.

Taylor 9th after the trade for Chapman ... interesting.  That is the highest I have seen him by far. 

Yesterday N Allgeyer was throwing SL, FB 89mph and CH 81mph. Today we see Kay.

Love these lists. I put a summary together every year of them. Only one I think I'm missing this year is the BP one (behind a pay wall), although their top 4 were easy to guess thanks to their top 100 (Moreno, Groshans, Martinez, Pearson).

From the 11 lists I have, from 4 (BP) to 10 (Prospects Live), to 20 (2 at Fantrax, Keith Law), to 30+ (MLB, BA, FanGraphs, TSN, Prospects 1500, and of course Batters Box) I see a clear trend.

#1 across the board is Gabriel Moreno, Orelvis Martinez 2nd on all but 2 (Nate Pearson BA, Jordan Groshans BP), then it gets messy with Nate Pearson, Gunnar Hoglund, Jordan Groshans, Kevin Smith, and Orelvis Martinez all listed at least once in 3rd place.

Unique to the BA list is Thomas Hatch (lost rookie status in 2020), and Fitz Stadler (not surprising). Nate Pearson is only on 4 lists so far (probably due to his not having rookie status - he used that up in 2021 so I'm kind of surprised BA would still list him along with BP, TSN, and Prospects 1500 as 2nd/4/3/5th best prospect). Very odd for BA to be that sloppy, listing 2 guys who aren't rookies as prospects still.

I also love these prospect lists. Special praise for Scott Mitchell for digging deep into the wilderness and also describing tools of the various prospects.

As thanks to Scott I will try to mention next year which of his very long shots turned on the jets and rocketed up the Jays list.

Very odd for BA to be that sloppy, listing 2 guys who aren't rookies as prospects still.

According to BA,"A prospect is eligible for these lists if he has not exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 30 relief appearances in the major leagues, regardless of MLB service time."

Nate Pearson has pitched 33 innings and has made 17 appearances on the mound. Hatch has 35-2/3 innings and 20 appearances to his name. Pearson's service time is 1.061 and Hatch is at 1.123.

Well, if you pro-rate 2020, like should be done, then Hatch is well over 50 IP (26 that year, you should more than double it though), and Pearson would be at 18/60*162+15 = 63 2/3. So both crack the 50 inning marker if you properly adjust 2020 stats. Not to mention the obvious experience thing (both over 1 year of service time).

MLB Pipeline has released its Top 30 list for the Blue Jays.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/

Well, if you pro-rate 2020, like should be done...

However, Randy Arozarena won the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year Award.

You may think it should be done, but baseball handled it differently.

Weird. For service time it was set so 2020 counted as the regular full season, half a season as half a season, etc. For arbitration purposes it was declared to count it by multiplying by 162/60 (same as 27/10 or roughly just shy of multiplying by 3). Of course ROY is a BBWAA award, not a MLB one (technical difference, but still a difference) and the writers can make up their own rules. I suspect BA and some others just took the easy (lazy) way out with this. Still, most felt like I did, that Pearson & Hatch are NOT qualified to be counted as rookies or prospects anymore (unless you think MLB, FanGraphs, Keith Law, and Batters Box are nuts of course along with minors Fantrax, Prospects Live). Those who seem to feel 2020 doesn't count as much are BA, Baseball Prospectus, and TSN (minor one is Prospects 1500).

Taylor at 16 on the MLB prospect list.
Mike Green, you were the first poster to convince me Taylor was a prospect, and here he is scoring in the teens on a couple of lists and getting left of the 40 man by the Jays. 

What's your take on his prospect status? 

Personally, aside from the handedness, I like him better than Palacios as a bench guy. 

Orelvis has an amazing swing and hits the ball so so hard. Really would rather not trade him if possible. Think he'll be a power hitting and very good D 3B for a long time.

Selfishly, I'm really hoping that he spends a chunk of his summer in Vancouver. Only a handful of the top Jays prospects have spent any length of time here.

A reminder about prospects from a link that shot up the 'hot topics' for some reason (spammers hitting the site cause it I think)

3. Guillermo Quiroz, C, 22
2003 New Haven
369 AB, .282/.372/.518, 63 R, 27 2B, 0 3B, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 45 BB, 83 K

One of the top three catching prospects in all of baseball, Quiroz is a slugger whose best attributes are actually defensive. He has a mortar attached to his shoulder, gunning down more than 40% of baserunners from year to year; moreover, he handles his pitchers well (his English is excellent) and he shows quickness and smarts behind the dish. Offensively, his bat is loaded with home-run power, though holes in his swing will keep his average mired in the .250 range for a while yet. He needs a full season at Triple-A, and the Blue Jays are fine at catcher in 2004 anyway. Starting in 2005, Quiroz should be the full-time backstop in Toronto: the glove will arrive immediately, the bat a little later.

So what happened to the Jays #3 prospect in 2004? Who was one of the top 3 in all of baseball (for catchers) at the time? He lasted 10 seasons in the majors (which surprised me) but had a 44 OPS+ (ouch) and -1.9 bWAR. 2008 he got the most playing time, in Baltimore, with 56 games played and 149 PA which he 'produced' a 40 OPS+ during. No wonder that was his peak for playing time, yet he got into 5 more seasons with 3 more teams. Jays lost him on waivers in 2006 as a late cut in spring training. FYI: for a cannon arm he only threw out 26% of base stealers in his career (6 teams so he can't blame any one pitching staff).

That same year the #1 for the Jays was Alex Rios (27.3 WAR, a solid career but extreme highs and lows - 2008 he had a 5.9 WAR, then 0.9, 3.3, -1.9, 4.8, 1.4 and kept going down from there), #2 Dustin McGowan (a frustrating, super-talented pitcher who never put it all together for long - 10 seasons, 1.6 WAR, best WAR in any year was 2007 with 2.3 over 169 innings, 110 ERA+ we all though 'yay he finally is coming through' not 'dead cat bounce, trade him now' as his career outside that one year was a negative WAR one).

Now, I think the Jays have better talent evaluators now and better training throughout the system (these guys were back in the JPR time and were brought in under Gord Ash iirc so 2 terrible GM's). But a warning about how prospects can break your heart.