Bauxite love child Rafa Ohashi comes out of the pen tonight and has a rough one. But the dunedin jays still win. That's called pitching to the score, folks. Smart!

Angel Del Rosario 20 years old plays 3B, 2B, LF and maybe more. His Avg has risen and he is a SB threat. His power has improved this year. He may be like Gabe Martinez but much faster and more versatile.

Kiley McD at ESPN ranked farm systems. Jays at 25,  similar to the other ranking argued a few days ago.  The teams bookending the Jays are interesting. Arizona dropped from 3rd preseason to 24th. Druw Jones, picked 2nd overall last year is scuffling badly, but most of the drop is graduations. And pathetic KC is 26th. How a team can be bad for so long and still have a farm ranked so low takes a special kind of bungling.  Atlanta is 29th and few of their fans care one iota about the low ranking. Used a couple to fill holes on their roster, but AA's "prospects are capital" trades have helped make them what they are.

Haven't looked closely at the prospects in a while. So here's my take on which guys look best, mostly statiscially, but with some tools upside thrown intoo.



* 1. LHP Tiedemann AA (19-20): 10gms, 2.8ip/gm, 36.8k%, 11.1bb%, 4.82era, 1.87fip, 2.51xfip
* 1. LHP Tiedemann A+ (19-19): 8gms, 4.7ip/gm, 36.0k%, 8.0bb%, 2.39era, 2.92fip, 3.27xfip

* 2. IF Nimmala CPX (17-17): 29pa, 37.9bb%, 20.7k%, .364babip, .176iso, 178wrc+

The 2 highest upside guys who both hit the pros running. Injuries for Tiedemann and no real sample for Nimmala rightly hold them back from being considered top prospects at the moment but if they can finish off the year strong they should get some respect.



* 3. IF Martinez AAA (21-21): 113pa, 10.6bb%, 26.5k%, .308babip, .219iso, 96wrc+
* 3. IF Martinez AA (20-21): 784pa, 10.3bb%, 25.5k%, .219babip, .249iso, 105wrc+

* 4. LHP Barriera A (19-19): 6gms, 3.0ip/gm, 31.5k%, 11.0bb%, 4.42era, 3.30fip, 3.64xfip

Plenty of upside with these next 2 as well. Martinez has been pushed too fast imo but has still held his own while a couple years young for his levels. Barriera has been too injured but the numbers have been there when he's played.



* 5. IF Barger AAA (22-23): 310pa, 13.9bb%, 20.7k%, .324babip, .185iso, 113wrc+
* 5. IF Barger AA (22-22): 198pa, 9.1bb%, 25.3k%, .390babip, .216iso, 147wrc+

His performance by age keeps him slightly ahead of the rest of the pack in the top 10 here. Hasn't been too good this year but overall he's still on track at an age appropriate level.

* 6. UT Schneider MLB (24-24): 36pa, 13.9bb%, 36.1k%, .571babip, .333iso, 222wrc+
* 6. UT Schneider AAA (23-24): 465pa, 18.5bb%, 22.8k%, .311babip, .253iso, 135wrc+

Breakout year for him but still lots of question marks in both offensive track record and defensive value.



* 7. OF Roden AA (23-23): 112pa, 13.4bb%, 16.1k%, .357babip, .176iso, 158wrc+
* 7. OF Roden A+ (23-23): 323pa, 13.0bb%, 9.9k%, .353babip, .138iso, 149wrc+

* 7. IF Jimenez AA (22-22): 315pa, 9.5bb%, 16.2k%, .327babip, .158iso, 127wrc+
* 7. IF Jimenez A+ (21-21): 294pa, 9.2bb%, 19.7k%, .269babip, .156iso, 106wrc+

* 7. IF DeJesus A+ (20-21): 675pa, 11.9bb%, 27.9k%, .342babip, .183iso, 114wrc+
* 7. IF DeJesus A (19-20): 598pa, 16.9bb%, 29.8k%, .375babip, .192iso, 125wrc+

* 7. OF Bohrofen A (21-21): 33pa, 21.2bb%, 18.2k%, .200babip, .615iso, 237wrc+
* 7. OF Bohrofen CPX (21-21): 20pa, 20.0bb%, 30.0k%, .375babip, .200iso, 148wrc+

4 guys putting up very interesting lines so far. Jimenez with the highest looking floor here thanks to the most defensive value and safest hitting line. De Jesus with the most risk/reward here with a 3 true outcomes approach with plenty of power, and questionable but maybe really good D too. Roden's putting up a thoroughly solid line, though old for his levels. Bohrofen's a tiny sample while old for the levels but it's a helluva start.

That's about where it ends for me in terms of truly interesting prospect performances, and coincidentally that finishes off the top 10.


2 next guys I considered:

* 11. RHP Santos A+ (19-20): 16gms, 3.8ip/gm, 28.9k%, 13.3bb%, 5.02era, 4.98fip, 4.84xfip
* 11. RHP Santos A (18-19): 16gms, 4.9ip/gm, 37.8k%, 11.8bb%, 4.02era, 3.76fip, 3.32xfip

Not sure why they're pushing Santos so quickly but that probably says something about how much they like his stuff. He's improved at both levels after tough starts to each while 2yrs young for the levels.

* 11. 1B Horwitz MLB (25-25): 10pa, 20.0bb%, 30.0k%, .400babip, .000iso, 101wrc+
* 11. 1B Horwitz AAA (24-25): 654pa, 15.6bb%, 16.8k%, .357babip, .143iso, 126wrc+

It's not a sexy line for Horwitz and he's at the very limits of what I consider prospect age....but he seems likely capable of being an averagish MLB hitter right now which is something even if he doesn't have much defensive value.

I am wary of putting too strong a weight on prospect age - it certainly matters, but more as a way of distinguishing potential (especially at lower levels) than of excluding players from prospectdom. Obviously pitchers take lots of different routes to big-league success, but even among hitters, there are lots of guys who only debut at 25 or later and have useful big-league careers. Yes, older prospects aren't as likely to turn into perennial all-stars, but there are exceptions even to that.

And speaking of an older prospect, is it time to if not get excited at least pay attention to Steward Berroa? He plays centre field, switch-hits, steals plenty of bases with a good success rate, walks a lot, and now boasts a wRC+ of 119 after a strong July & August. He turned 24 in June, so he's not young for AA, and strikes out at a fairly high rate for a guy without much power. His Ks seem to result from running into deep counts, since he doesn't have a particularly worrisome swing-and-miss rate.

Berroa has never been on a prospect list as far as I can recall, but there aren't huge holes in his game. Pretty strong 4th outfielder candidate.

well i definitely put a lot of weight on prospect age. and still think it's one of the most underrated factors in prospect evaluation. but hey that's just one man's opinion.

One can also put too much stock in age vs level is that it sometime overrides other factors as we saw with Urena and Maximo.

I mean they were borderline prospects but i'm pretty sure Urena and Maximo ended up getting more MLB time than most of the older guys they were being ranked behind. Heck, Maximo's still only 24.

I can't say I see prospect age as being currently underrated - it once was, but I see a great deal of awareness & weight put on it today by major outlets and here on this board. Instead I see older prospects (and post-prospects like Ernie Clement) largely dismissed because of their age. I strongly doubt Clement is ever going to make an all-star game, but he's displaying the skills *right now* in AAA to be a useful major leaguer.

sure I agree that Clement looks like he may well contribute but I don't think that makes Clement a prospect per se. same with Lukes.

there's plenty of veteran borderline MLBers around that sometimes end up helping and sometimes don't. the bare fact that someobody is playing in the minors I'm not sure makes them a "prospect".

or maybe it's just semantics I dunno.

For me, prospect age matters somewhat especially at the edges (i.e. someone succeeding in AA at 19 or someone doing well in A ball at 24). I also think it matters a lot more for hitters than for pitchers. For example, if a 18 YO hitter in Florida State league ball is doing well, that probably makes him a very prospect. If a pitcher the same age is doing well, well I still really just want to know what their stuff is like. Are they dominating by throwing junk that 20 YOs can't hit?

Most older ones might get a good month or two in, but given a full chance they tend to flop for the same reason they got stuck in the minors - there is normally some hole in their game that we fans can't see, that minor leaguers can't exploit, but major leaguers find and kill them with. Randy Ruiz is the guy who comes to mind - in 2009 he came up and pounded - 162 OPS+, 10 HR in 130 PA, but only played in 2010 after that in the majors and had an OPS+ of 12 with 1 HR in 40 PA. He'd play in the minors for the Yankees and Arizona for a year each, but mostly was in Japan, Mexico, PR winter league, and the indy Atlantic League. He played to age 40 (2018/19) and had a few good years, but nothing that made a ML team go 'lets give him another shot'.

Now, could Clement do well? Maybe. IMO he deserved a better shot. But the Jays really didn't have much open for a AAAA guy this year. If they sucked like they did in the 00's/early 10's (basically a 500 team with little to no hope of making the playoffs) then sure. But right now you can't just give a guy like him more than a backup role as the 26th man (like Lukes was most of the year). Clement got a shot and did well this year (4 for 8 with a double and a SB and a walk) but has a lifetime 55 OPS+ in the majors (322 PA) so odds are he isn't more than a backup and hopefully gets that shot somewhere in 2024 - Oakland will probably be looking for any warm bodies with experience this winter.

Clement spent a good portion of 2021 and 2022 in the majors so he's not a prospect... He's a guy that has some experience but never really got regular playing time. Things seem to have really clicked for him this year after getting regular playing time for the first time in a few years and there might be something there given his contact skills and ability to hit the ball reasonably hard.

Berroa is another player that's been around a while and has some athleticism but lacks instincts in the field and hasn't matured enough as a hitter. Interestingly, he usually struggles in the leadoff spot but hits really well in the nine spot (.894 OPS)

Thanks Marc for your thoughts on Clement & Berroa. Good point about playing time. I think I'd rather have Clement on the bench than Espinal - I think there's a better chance Clement could be useful in the stretch run and playoffs than Espinal.

I like to keep my eye on later-round highschool draftees - Danny Jansen & Davis Schneider are the recent successes. This year Sam Shaw (9th round) is the only example. After a double and a couple walks today, he's showing a great BB:K of 10:6 through his first 40 PA in the FCL, but hasn't shown much power or speed.

In another thread John N replaced all our ML players with AA/AAA players. That was interesting and interesting is fun.

I think doing that for 2024 relievers would also be fun. We may even get some scores which would be nice for a change. The lefties Mayza and G Cabrera could be helped by J Burnette who is close. Youngish Pearson could become more consistent. Zulueta, Danner, Juenger and maybe Conner Cooke can contribute if some pitching fails in 2024. Burnette, Juenger and Cooke don't need to be added to the 40 man roster until after 2024. Fluharty and Brock in AA as well as C Dallas.

I forgot Tiedemann.

The Jays 15th round pick this year was Kelena Sauer from San Diego State. I just checked his full name, here it is.

Kelena Lanakilahaahaaokekoa Mark Alan Sauer

As you might guess, he was born in Hawaii.