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The affiliates scored four runs combined and lost all four games. There were few highlights on a tough night.

Lehigh Valley 10 Buffalo 2

New Hampshire 1 Bowie 6

Vancouver 0 Tri-City 4

Jupiter 3 Dunedin 1

Three Stars

Third Star - Bryce Arnold

Second Star - Manuel Beltre

First Star - Nathan Lukes



The Bisons were down 9-1 after two innings. Paxton Schultz and Jimmy Burnette were hit around. Seven hits for the Bisons, three for Nathan Lukes and two for Orelvis Martinez.

Chad Dallas started for New Hampshire and he was taken deep three times for three solo home runs. He went six innings, just four K's. The Fisher Cats had just four hits. Newly promoted Bryce Arnold had two of them.

Vancouver had six hits, Ryan McCarty and Garrett Spain had two each. Kevin Miranda started and took the loss.

Aaron Munson, 19th round draft pick this year, made the start. He went three scoreless innings. Eliander Alcalde followed and took the loss. Seven hits for the Jays, Manuel Beltre and Nicolas Deschamps had two each.

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Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#436142) #
Thanks, Gerry, for this. That was one pretty hellacious night on the farm.

So, maybe we can discuss prospects either from a top 30 perspective or from the angle of who is likely to be able to contribute to the big-league club in 2024.
I will start with Orelvis Martinez. His hitting profile has changed in Buffalo. His line-drive rate is way up to 25% and his HR/FB rate is down somewhat to 17%. On balance this is a good thing, and I do have a better impression of his long-term future. However, his wRC+ in Buffalo is 105. He still has a ways to go.

I suspect that Matt Hague is good for him, and that the best thing for him is to be where Hague is next year. Maybe the rest of September and spring training 2024 is enough if Hague is in Toronto in 2024. At this point, it doesn't seem likely that he would thrive in a full-time major league role.
Gerry - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#436145) #
I would agree Mike. I would think that Orelvis could spend the first half of next season in AAA and be ready for a promotion or an injury replacement in the second half of next season. He is young and when the Jays pushed him last season it didn't work out.
John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#436146) #
I see 3B as a battle in spring - Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider and probably others all fighting it out for that job (assuming Chapman leaves).  I fully expect the Jays to sign some AAAA types to fight it out too, and don't count out the possibility of Schneider going to 2B and 3B being Espinal/Biggio.  Plus Barger could go to LF, as could Schneider.  The possibilities are dang near endless.
bpoz - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#436148) #
Matt Hague deserves a lot of praise for the great job he is doing in Buffalo. However Orelvis started to hit well bb/k ratio in NH starting May 10. So the NH hitting coach also deserves credit. Will Robertson in NH has hit V well Aug & Sept but he took a long time to figure it out. Roden had no problem in Vancouver or NH so the hitting coaches for those 2 teams don't really count as great except for more power in NH for Roden. I did not intend to slight the hitting coaches.
lexomatic - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#436149) #
I was curious. But this season almost ALL of Biggios offense happens when he's playing 1b. He walks everywhere, but that's basically all he's done when playing a harder position.
Going to check how much that's been an issue throughout his career
hypobole - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#436153) #
Davis Schneider is not a 3B. Emergency use only. If he makes the club, he'll be 2B/LF.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#436154) #
I agree that Schneider is not a third baseman.

"If he makes the club"...I suppose they could send him down for more seasoning. /s
scottt - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#436156) #
The Yankees have dropped Donaldson and Bader and called some prospects.
They've gone 8-2 while the Jays are only 6-4 in the last 10.

They could platoon a couple of guys at 3B, even if it hasn't gone well with Espinal/Biggio while Semiens was here. Barger has the arm to play in the hot corner.

They are incentives now for bringing prospects up at the beginning of the year instead of waiting a couple of months. When guys are around 20, the extra year of control looms large, but Barger will be 25 and every guy you sign takes a roster spot on the 40 roster.

John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#436157) #
Agreed that Schneider is a 2B/LF not a 3B, but desperate times right? Like Kent at 3B in 1992 (49 games here at 3B as a rookie, then 108 the rest of his 17 year career, more than I expected, mostly with the Mets) - championship teams make due during the season, then plan out better in the off-season.

So realistically for 2024 I see Schneider replacing Merrifield (2B/LF), Barger/Orelvis Martinez fighting for 3B, and the Biggio/Espinal mix at 2B when Schneider is in LF. I fully expect the Jays to be deep in the chase for Cody Bellinger to play LF with Varsho going to CF full time in 2024. Kiermaier will be a backup plan (along with other plans). Horwitz to take over DH vs RHP with an assortment of guys 'half day off' at DH vs LHP - Horwitz and Vlad will alternate at 1B/DH vs RHP.

The pen will be interesting - Green's options are up in the air I'd say depending how he does the rest of the season/playoffs. Romano-Swanson-Mayza-Richards-Garcia-Cabrera seem like locks. Cimber gone, Pop has to earn a slot, Jackson deserves a slot, as does Francis. Hicks won't be back (too expensive). Given the depth I wouldn't be shocked if Garcia and/or Richards are traded in the off-season.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#436159) #
John, Green was added to the 40 man on Sept 1. I believe he is ineligible for the playoffs.

Would be happy to be corrected
Ducey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#436160) #
Correction: The Jays wont make the playoffs.

Hope you are happy now.
John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#436161) #
Checked the rules - any player who is on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list as of 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31. Green was on the IL so he qualifies.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#436162) #
Thanks John.

Ducey, thatís just mean!
GabrielSyme - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#436163) #
Schneider has a fringey-at-best arm for 3B, but if there's anyone on the team I'd be unsurprised went to driveline in the offseason and came back with another 5mph on his throws, it's Schneider. I think his actions and

I'm a little surprised that his arm is so poor for the position - he was drafted as a 3B and played mostly at 3B for his first two years with the Jays.
Waveburner - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#436164) #
Barger will be 24 next season, not 25.
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#436168) #
why isn't nimmala playing?
uglyone - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#436169) #
Orelvis in AAA

* First 21gms: 91pa, 11.0bb%, 27.5k%, .308babip, .244avg, .179iso, 85wrc+
* Last 20gms: 88pa, 9.1bb%, 25.9k%, .346babip, .303avg, .329iso, 132wrc+
92-93 - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#436170) #
From today's KLaw chat:

Q: Thoughts on Davis Schneider's Ruthian start? Just a guy, or a starter on a contending team?

A: Just a guy, without a position.
GabrielSyme - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#436172) #
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs was also very dismissive of Schneider's future on the Effectively Wild podcast this week.
John Northey - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#436174) #
Odd for Law to be missing out on how Schneider is having a historic start to his career and has been solid in the minors lately. Guess he is basically doubling down on how he and most evaluators (all) missed this guy last winter and before due to his 28th round/short height status. His OPS in AAA 940, in AA 844, in A+ 819, in rookie 803. His time in A/A- not as good but just 75 PA (sub 500 OPS combined). Basically Schneider has gotten better at each level as he climbed the ladder. He might not sell jeans at 5'9" but he does hit baseballs. Heck, he even pitched 3 times (2 IP 10 H 1 BB 1 SO 2 HR 9 R 8 ER)... hrm, the less said about that the better.

In the minors he was used at 2B 129 times, 3B 109 times, 79 in LF, 9 at 1B, 5 in RF. But to Law that means he is a guy without a position, not that he is a useful player who can cover multiple positions. I think I can see why Law is a columnist and not working for a ML team (for those who don't know, he worked for the Jays during the JPR dark times).

Btw, Ruth's best year was 1920 - 376/532/847 255 OPS+ vs Schneider's current 385/512/846 267 - it has been an amazing 82 PA so far, although he did slow down in September - just 278/480/722 (1.202 OPS). Delgado 2000 is the best OPS in Jays history at 1.134. Best for a Jays career 30+ PA is Tony Phillips (60 PA) 988, then Delgado .949 over 6018 PA. For 11+ PA the best is Delgado's 2000. At 10 PA you get Otto Lopez 1.367 in 2022, best 1+ PA is Jeff Tam 2003 who hit a double in his only PA (3000 OPS - putting the Jays up 7-3 in a game they'd lose 9-8).

For MLB history from 1954 to now (years with SF recorded) the best 3 OPS recorded were all Barry Bonds (2001-2002-2004), then 1998 Shane Spencer (NYY) 1.321 over 73 PA, then Bonds 2003, Ted Williams 1957 (1.257 over 546 PA), Craig Wilson (ChiSox 1998 53 PA 1.238), ... Delgado's 2000 is #43. Schneiders current 1.358 is the best non-Bonds year for 50+ PA. Cut to 25 PA and we get J. D. Drew 1998 St Louis. Boy was 1998 an interesting year with this - gee, wonder why, must've been something in the water that year. Also Dan Johnson 2012 ChiSox 1.367 over 31 PA. Sam Horn 1993 Cleveland 1.321 in 36 PA and Rudy Pemberton 1996 Red Sox 1.336 in 45 PA. That's it for 1300 OPS+ over the past 70 years even down to 25 PA. I was sure going down that low we'd see a batch more. Cutting to 10+ PA we add another 33 players with 1300+ OPS with #1 being Armando Rios in (you guessed it) 1998 for SF at 2.129.
Mike Green - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#436177) #
It would be funny if Schneider kept hitting through September and October, led the club in fWAR and won a World Series MVP.
hypobole - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#436179) #
"Law - A: Just a guy, without a position."

Law - "Failed prospect for a non-prospect". Ate crow that one.
Marc Hulet - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#436180) #
I fully expect Schneider to be more of a 90-110 wRC+ kinda guy, with modest fielding. A Dan Uggla type but with more 20 HR pop than 30+ HR pop.

I'm not sure the Jays see Barger as a long-term 3B option given his lack of reps there towards the end of the year in deference to RF...

Nimmala isn't playing because the GCL season ended and he's not really ready for full-season ball.
greenfrog - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#436189) #
The other day BA seemed pretty positive about Schneider, Horwitz and Roden.
GabrielSyme - Friday, September 08 2023 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#436245) #
Hey Marc, I'm also probably more reserved on Schneider's long-term prospects than most here, but would be interested to hear why you think so. ZIPS & Steamer both project him above 110 right now, so I'm curious why your baseline expectation is significantly lower.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#436247) #
I like Schneider but I also remember Kevin Maas and others... 40-50 games does not indicate future success. Schneider also has a .500 BABIP, heavy pull approach, and a 28% K-rate. I stand by the Uggla-lite comp...

Love what Clement has been doing. Taking the ball the other way is a skill that has been sorely lacking on this team that has been too easy to pitch to... You don't always have to hit 'em 100 mph+ to score runs.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#436249) #
Pulling the ball is a good thing if you keep it off the ground.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#436254) #
Absolutely it is but being too pull heavy can make you an easier out if you don't make adjustments as we saw with Springer and Vladdy (and others) for much of the year.

Clement is refreshing and good for the lineup because he'll use the whole field... it makes it more difficult dor the pitcher and fielders. Clement had a huge hole in the right side last night and pretty much any other Jays hitter would have ignored it last night and tried to yank the ball into the LF seats. But Clement recognized he could get a run across dropping it into the hole in RF. It was the key run.

Teams like the Orioles and Dodgers hit the ball hard to all fields. I believe it's helped them succeed.
GabrielSyme - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#436261) #
Thanks Marc - I honestly don't know quite what to think of Schneider going forward. His major league sample so far shows him with elite plate discipline and bottom-of-the-barrel contact ability. He's taking his existing qualities, as demonstrated in the minors, and has made them even more pronounced in the majors, namely taking lots of walks, hitting lots of fly balls and pulling the ball. I expect there's regression coming on all fronts - but that probably has some positives (more contact, he didn't swing-and-miss as much in AAA) as well as negatives.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#436263) #
Schneider did slice the ball down the right field line yesterday for a double but that may have been more by accident than by design.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#436264) #
I'm contrarian on this. The Dodgers do pull a lot. Only 3 teams pull more than they do.

I agree on Clement. His strength is the all-fields approach, much like Bo. Schneider's strength is pulling fly balls, much like Jansen.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#436266) #
"Bottom-of-the-barrel contact ability"

Swinging strike rate is a good indicator of contact ability. Schneider's Swinging strike rate of 13.5% is below league average (and significantly higher than it was in Buffalo). However, there are many players with noticeably worse. For instance, the Rays have 8 players with Swinging strike rates of 15% or higher (Bethancourt, Siri, both Lowes, Raley, Harold Ramirez, Curtis Mead and Pinto. Bottom-of-the-barrel is overstating it.
hypobole - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#436268) #
The 3 Jays with 80 PA's and the lowest SwStr% are Kirk, Espinal and Merrifield. All 3 under 100 wRC+ on the year.

The 3 Jays with 80 PA's and the highest SwStr% are Schneider, KK and Belt. All 3 are over 110 wRC+ on the year.

uglyone - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#436269) #
It's really really really tough to glean anything from the stats ao far for schneider.

A key for projecting him is whether his power is legit or not. Eye test says the power comes pretty easy. Milb stats the past few years suggest the power might be top notch (i.e. .250ish ISO). The projection systems only have him for decent .200ish ISO pop at this point tho.

If you so a crude chop to his numbers - i.e. chop .200babip off both his obp and slg, and then bring down his ISO into a reasonable .200-.250 range you still come out with a guy in the mid to high .700s ops which is a nice floor. That's an extremely crude adjustment tho.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 09 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#436278) #
The Jays have a very low swinging strike rate as a team. It's one thing, but obviously not the only thing. If you can hit for power without a lot of swing and miss, that's best.
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