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We're trying hard to make this whole thing blend
As we sit upon this jagged storey block,
with you my friend

San Francisco, for the first time in five years.

The Jays last visited AT&T Park back in May 2019, and split a pair of games with the Giants. They won 7-3 behind Trent Thornton, as Vladimir Guerrero hit the first two homers of his major league career. The Giants won the next night on Brandon Crawford's tie-breaking homer off Ryan Tepera.

We'll be seeing a couple of last year's Blue Jays - after a slow start, Matt Chapman is having a solid season in his first season on the other side of the Bay. Jordan Hicks, moved into the rotation, has been trending in the other direction. Hicks went 4-1, 2.33 in his first 11 starts, but has gone 0-4, 5.51 since. The Giants pitching hasn't been quite what they were hoping for. Blake Snell, coming off his second Cy Young season, is winless in six starts, sports a 9.51 ERA, and has spent two stretches on the IL. He will try to get his season pointed in the right direction tonight.

The Giants have a couple of interesting young players. Heliot Ramos has taken over in centre field since Jung Hoo Lee suffered a season ending shoulder injury in May and has promptly turned into the team's best hitter. He'll be heading to the All-Star Game along with tomorrow's starter, Logan Webb. And catcher Patrick Bailey is having a strong sophomore season . So far. Bailey had half a fine rookie season in 2023, but faded badly in the second half, possibly because he'd never played so many games in a season before.

So Nigel and I briefly discussed base running last week - it's not one of the strengths of this year's Blue Jays team, although they haven't really hurt themselves a whole lot. And I discovered that bb-ref's baserunning data goes all the way back to 1912.

More than a century of numbers for me to scrutinize! What fun!

I had already determined that Alfredo Griffin holds the team record for most Outs on the Bases in a single season (17 in 1979.) And it's my suspicion that Outs on the Bases have generally been trending downward over... well, over the last one hundred years. Further scrutiny is required, but here are some fun facts.

Most Outs on the Bases in a single season? That takes us right back to the beginning of this recorded history - it was 1912 and the player was Ty Cobb, who managed to get put out on the base paths - wait for it - 41 times. As far as I can tell, Cobb was trying to take the extra base every single time. Cobb also made 35 Outs on Base in 1917 and 31 in 1919. Those are the only seasons where anyone has made more than 30 Outs on the Bases.

There were still lots of people being thrown out on the bases in the 1920s - your league leaders generally made more than 20 Outs on the Bases - but the offensive explosion of the 1930s do seem to have had the effect of discouraging hyper-aggressive base running. Since 1930, the AL has seen just four seasons where a player made more than 20 Outs on the Bases, and just two in the last 50 years: Hal McRae in 1978 and Chone Figgins in 2004.

As mentioned, Alfredo holds the Jays record and he tied for the league lead with Al Bumbry that season. Dave Winfield and Chuck Knoblauch tied for the league lead in Outs on Bases in 1992. Tony Fernandez led the league in 1985 and tied for the lead with Harold Reynolds in 1989. Jose Reyes (2014) is the other Blue Jay to lead the league in this dubious category.


Tue 9 July - Kikuchi (4-8, 4.12) vs Snell (0-3, 9.51)
Wed 10 July - Bassitt (7-7, 3.43) vs Webb (7-6, 3.09)
Thu 11 July - Gausman (6-8, 4.64) vs Hicks (4-5, 3.47)
Toronto at San Francisco, July 9-11 | 193 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#448957) #
Jays have nowhere to go but up. 5-1 on this trip to get to the all star break.
Ducey - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#448962) #
Bo is 2nd again. No Horwitz. Ugh.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#448963) #
No one in the lineup with a sub 600 OPS for probably the first time this season. Gotta take your pluses where you can.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#448964) #
I don't mind Horwitz not starting against an erratic LHP. It might even save him from getting beaned by an inside pitch. I recognize that he has been solid against LHP in 2024 (110 wRC+).

Also, mea culpa about Snell. I thought he could help the Blue Jays form a strong rotation, but he has been terrible this year. And he's thrown only 23.2 innings.
scottt - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#448966) #
I had a quick look at extensions.

Baltimore. Nothing. Felix Bautista 2 year/2M and not playing. Only guy on a multi-year contract is James McCann, 4 years, 40M.

The Yankees never extend players. They let them walk or resign them in free agency, like Judge and LeMahieu. They traded for Stanton's extension, another 3 years on that.

Tampa. There is that crazy contract to Franco. The less said the better.
They signed Yandy Diaz for  3 years, 24M with a 12M option in 2026. Trade value has taken a dive.
They signed Jeffrey Springs for 4 years, 31M and he's having TJ surgery in the middle of that.
They signed Brandon Lowe for 6 years, 24M ending this year. They got 2 options which they will probably not pick up. They did well here, let say 15 WAR over 6 year as a platoon.
Pete Fairbanks, 3 years, 12M. They basically bough his arbitration and added a club option for 7M.

Boston is the interesting one.
They signed Devers for 10 years, 313M, so far so good.
They have that ridiculous contract to Trevor Story that is not an extension, but 6 years, 140M down the drain so far.
They signed Brayan Bello for 6 years, 55M. He hasn't not be good yet. ERA over 5 this year.
They signed Rafaela for 8 years, 50M. He has an 88 OPS+. Was worse last year.
They signed Whitlock for 4 years, 18.75M. He's out for the year. Blown elbow.
The didn't extend Houck and he's been good this year.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#448967) #
Atlanta seems to have done well with player extensions (Acuna Jr.’s injuries notwithstanding).

AA did this in Toronto as well, executing a couple of savvy extensions (Encarnacion and Bautista) that contributed to the 2015-2016 playoff teams.
christaylor - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#448968) #
I was also in favor of a Snell signing. Mostly because I didn't buy into the narrative that the pitching was fine and he was left out there hanging.

Interesting comment on the broadcast about Chapman that the Jays tried to get in on him in the hours/days before his signing with the Giants.

It fits the idea that they went all in on Ohtani and then scrambled. Not the worst strategy if a) the FO thought they could woo him b) given the lackluster FA class.

Who here on this pena was looking for the Jays to sign relievers? That person deserves a cuttlefish.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#448969) #
It seems the weather is Clement this time of year in SF.
Ducey - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#448970) #
Bo should know better than to show up the umpire. It'll cost ya.
Ducey - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#448971) #
Kikuchi just increased his trade value.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#448972) #
Three hits for the Blue Jays tonight (single, double, home run) — all by the kids (Schneider, Horwitz, Clement).

The top four of Springer, Bichette, Vladdy, Turner are 0/15 with 4 Ks and no walks.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#448973) #
Snell would still look good in the Jays rotation.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#448974) #
"Matt Chapman strikes out swinging. 3 outs."

feels good not gonna lie.
Ducey - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#448975) #
Most pitchers pitching against the Jays look like they would look good in the Jays rotation.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#448976) #
Dan Schulman just woke me up with his raised voice call for San Francisco tying the game? Easy, Dan.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#448977) #
Blue jays baseball, folks.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#448978) #
Man that's brutal.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#448979) #
"Gut-punch," doesn't work. To lose like that after the last month of weak losses and against a weak Giants team without their clean up hitter...with a terrible bullpen available for the manager...that's the first nail in the coffin for this group hammered in by the front office. To quote John Hurt from A History of Violence, "how do you **** that up? HOW! Do you **** that up!"
Kelekin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#448980) #
As soon as that weak hit got through the infield, you knew how the game was going to end up.
Ducey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:31 AM EDT (#448981) #
Pretty good result, really.

Kikuchi improves value, the kids hit a little, Pearson is coming along, and the loss improves draft position.
Super Bluto - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:01 AM EDT (#448984) #
for the record, I believe I was the only one NOT in favour of signing Snell. Looks like I was right. Again.
scottt - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 06:10 AM EDT (#448985) #
Hardly the only one.

I went to bed after Jansen walked and they got Schneider to chase a curve on a poorly thought hit and run. 1 and 2 is a waste pitch count. Then I woke up to watch Richards lose it.

Green threw 27 pitches in Saturday for a save and 22 Sunday for a win.
The pen could use 2 or 3 high leverage relievers right now.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#448986) #
He pitched 27 innings before tonight (mostly unprepared from no spring training). Lets see where he is by seasons end.
adrianveidt - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#448987) #
Bullpen blows another one and social media blames Schneider, who is not himself in the bullpen.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#448988) #
Never trust relievers. Jays had Romano, Garcia, Green, Mayza, Swanson, and Richards coming into the year which looked like a solid but not elite group with some decent depth as well in Francis, Pearson, Pop, etc.. . I was for trading Romano because I don't trust relievers and think trading closers is almost always a good idea but still this mess was not foreseeable. This bullpen collapse has been brutal but it's hardly the only reason the Jays are where they are.
scottt - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#448989) #
Maybe not, but it's the main reason why they can't go on a winning run and get back in it.
They don't have the slugging to win by blowouts regularly.

Glevin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#448991) #
Oh, it's been brutal for sure and with a good bullpen they are probably hanging around last wildcard but hanging around last wildcard isn't success to me. I really don't think there's much chance they trade Bo or Vlad this deadline because I think this offseason they will try to resign Vlad (not saying they will but I expect a real effort) and Bo is now one of the worst players in baseball so is practically untradable. I don't think expect great returns from the guys who are free agents this year but they need to clear out some room for more playing time so KK and Turner should go even if it's only for salary.

Draft is next week and it's always interesting to me how they and to work. There's usually an elite group of 1-5 players who can go at the top, a secondary group of around 5 players who are next best and then like 25 players who can go from like pick 10 to second round. This is why it's so important to get high picks when you are losing anyway. No personal preference of guys available to Jays just prefer hitters and not catchers and prefer terms like "high exit velocity, big bat" to "versatile". I'd be ecstatic with another prospect of Nimmala's calibre at 20.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#448992) #
Reading the box score, I have to agree with Ducey - good result, the right players did well and we improved our draft position. Really hope the Jays are the dominant sellers.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#448994) #
I can only come away now, half way through the season that this front office gave up on this team's chances of contending awhile ago...probably a month ago when they should have traded for bullpen help but didn't.

Starting to feel like this front office isn't as clueless as I thought and they likely are way ahead of us in already planning to do the draft then blow this thing up after acknowledging how many misfires there have been this year (Horwitz non call up, Gausman rushed, Bo no adjustment, Springer 3 months to adjust, etc etc) which is to say nothing of the subpar managing of this team. Schneider has never, ever "stolen" a win or outsmarted the other manager but he has had this happen to him a few times.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#448995) #
I find it very hard to cheer for losses, especially in baseball where draftees very rarely make an immediate impact. I’m personally hoping for a 1998 kind of deal - people move out, and the team does well down the stretch so we have some hope about next year. Cheering for 2 months of sub .400 ball is just not it, IMV.

Also, on the GM question I think Atkins stays throughout next year. I think the track record from the past three seasons carries a lot more weight than others give him credit for, and I also feel like the complete collapse of the bullpen and George (early on) and Bo gives Ross some easy and understandable cover. I know others strongly disagree, but I see Ross as the GM through the end of next season, at least. If they lose again, he’ll be gone, but not before.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#448996) #
I think we are out of it so my interests are the draft and trades.

#20 pick this year. We had high picks in 2018,19 & 20. #19-23 the following 3 years.

I don't evaluate S Farrell for the 2020 draft because it was only 5 rounds and A Martin took most of the draft budget.

A Bauxite mentioned that Farrell was made the scouting director at age 29. That Bauxite also stated that he thought that Shapiro is running this part of the org so wanted a guy that he could control. I agree with this opinion because I see Shapiro having that personality type to control everything. But I could be wrong.

Many other Bauxites have suggested that the Jay's top pick is practically made by Shapiro/Atkins. So Farrell IMO should not really be evaluated on the top pick. I understand that Hoglund is a control pitcher who fell to the Jays due to TJ. He could be good. Barriera & Nimmala were high upside HS picks that have not proven anything yet. As far as I know only Nimmala signed at a discount. We do very well managing the bonus pool using round 4 to 10.

Sorry for the long post but I wanted to help set some guidelines for discussing drafting strategy.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#448997) #
I can’t cheer for losses either.if there were no draft lottery and there were a Bryce Harper/Griffey kind of guy at number one, sure but that isn’t the case. Instead, I don’t really care much about wins. I’m looking for other things. How do the young guys look, and so on.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#448998) #
Mayza resurfacing in pinstripes. Vogelbach still in the ether.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#448999) #
I plan to renew my seats behind home plate (I was pushed back 13 rows to make way for the exclusive club seats and charged 25% more). It is alarming the number of dissatisfied season ticket holders (decades long) who are not renewing their seats in my section. When the season began they said they would not renew but now they actually have put in their written notice.

Shapiro and Atkins acknowledged the offense wasn't good enough last year and both said that they would do a deep dive. To come up with IKF, Vogelbach and Turner as a solution and watch the team fall flat because the core also fell flat is an indictment of inaction after acknowledgement. With one year left on the contract there is no way Shapiro keeps Atkins unless he plans to also give up his new Canadian life. He's moved his family up here and is now a Canadian citizen.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#449000) #
The MLB amateur draft starts this coming Sunday evening. An article at Jays Nation speculates that Toronto may go after a college arm that can rise through the minors quickly. One college pitcher who might be available is Mississippi State hurler Jurrangelo Cijntje. ( How do you even say that?) Apparently he is a switch pitcher that can throw the ball 99 MPH right-handed and 95 MPH left-handed. It doesn't say if he has good control with both, though.
Ducey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#449001) #
I agree with you 99 BlueJays. Its been one of those years. In fact, Atkins has done a decent job on trades for established players. Positive.

It seems they are in on a lot of free agents. Like ALL of them. Yet they struck out on everyone this last off season. He is fighting against taxes, a foreign land, not being close to home, etc, but I think he has become a bit of joke in this regard in baseball circles. Negative.

Because of the problem of landing free agents (I say problem, but lets face it the Dodgers dont have the to deal with people saying no very often) the need a very strong farm system. They talked about waves of prospects. The reality is the occasional coconut washing up on the beach. Negative.

Because of this last point, I think Atkins needs to go.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#449002) #
When the Jays were strong the last 4 years or so, there was little room on the major league roster for players to graduate from the minors, let alone get playing time. Kirk and Manoah were pretty much exceptions, so there should have been good prospects piling up at AAA to help the team this year when injuries and poor performance have occurred.

Some top prospects were traded, of course, but the cheap, young talent just isn't there. There are some players like Horwitz that will be serviceable, but no real stars. What the Jays are left with is an expensive team full of holes and not much on the farm to fill them. That is one of the major failings of the current management group.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#449005) #
Speaking of GM trades, the ninja (AA) pulled off an incredible one in the off-season, trading Vaughn Grisson (hitting .148 with -0.9 fWAR this year) for Chris Sale (12-3, 2.74 ERA, 105 IP, 11.66 K and 1.89 BB per 9IP, 3.5 fWAR, most wins in baseball).

Anyone still think he's overrated?
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#449006) #
The Blue Jays moved back to the Rogers Centre on July 30, 2021.  This makes 3 year (almost) and 1 year reviews of where players are quite helpful. 

Here is the almost 3 year report of the position players (July 30, 2021- present) and here is the 1 year report (July 10, 2023-July 10, 2024).  Highlights:

1. Vladimir Guerrero's 1 year and 3 year offensive production are almost exactly identical wRC+ 128 and 129 respectively.  It's good for 7.8 fWAR over 2056 PA or around 2.5 fWAR per 650 PA, but Fangraphs' measures are particularly down on his defence; you can mark him for 3 WAR/650 PA if you prefer.
2. Bo Bichette's 1 year and 3 year offensive production are completely different wRC+ of 86 and 116 respectively.  He's a very good player at the latter mark (almost 4 fWAR per 650 PA) and a below average one at the former.  There is nothing to do but let him play more, in light of the unexpected dip at a young age.
3. George Springer's 1 year and 3 year offensive production are different wRC+ of 94 and 116 respectively.  He's a 1.5 WAR player at the former mark and a 3 WAR player at the latter.  In his case, you need to decide what's the best role for him.  Leadoff hitter is probably not it and everyday player is a question mark.  He hasn't hit left-handed pitching particularly well over the last 3 years.  I think you just want him to a day or two a week off.
4. Alejandro Kirk's 1 year and 3 year marks are not as different as commonly thought- wRC+ of 97 and 108 respectively.  He's a good player at either mark because of his stellar defence. Jansen is similar with more O and less D.
5. Spencer Horwitz has 133 PA with excellent wOBA and xwOBA and good defence.  His baserunning has been atrocious, but that's the only negative.
6. Davis Schneider has a wRC+ of 126 and 2.8 fWAR in 429 PA. Schneider and Horwitz would be a fine right-side of the infield and cleanup and leadoff hitters.  Schneider plays a fine second base, and a passable left-field both by all the metrics and by observation (by the way, he hits .276/.390/.533 as a second baseman and .207/304/.414 as a left-fielder).  . 
7. Ernie Clement has a wRC+ of 97  and 0.7 fWAR in 231 PA.  He's an excellent utility player and a serviceable regular if you need.
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has done everything well so far this year.  It's a weird mix with the bat. He makes a lot of contact almost always soft, but from time to time, he gets a hold of one and pulls it into the left-field seats.  Statcast says that if he played full-time in Baltimore, he would have 0 home runs rather than 7. 
9. Justin Turner, over the last calendar year has a wRC+ of 114.  It's not really what you would want from your DH or your cleanup hitter, but if you had him batting sixth, it would be fine.  And even 5th would be OK. 

John Northey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#449008) #
The Jays had a weak free agent year - but did get a couple of good signings in - IKF no one here thought was a good sign at his price ($15 mil total over 2 years) but he has easily been very worth it. Justin Turner, outside of May (when he was sick and should've been on the IL), has been lights out on offense (150+ OPS+ in April and June). Yariel Rodríguez is looking like a very good signing (5 years $32 mil). Kiermaier is the only one signed for over $5 mil who really flopped but even so is actually at 0.3 bWAR (his defense is still amazing despite a 49 OPS+). So I have no real problem with his free agency work - yeah, we'd all have loved to get Ohtani but he also didn't tie the Jays hands by doing a panic signing - which Cody Bellinger easily could've been but wasn't - Belinger is at 1.0 bWAR/fWAR so far with a 106 wRC+, negative defense from both systems while making $27.5 mil and has player options for the next 2 years at the same amount.

As to the prospects - that is definitely on Atkins. But remember our current 2B is Spencer Horwitz with a 174 OPS+ (0.9 bWAR in 27 games), current LF is Schneider (slumping badly right now to a 98 OPS+ but was over 130 for the first 2 months).

Btw, the nightmare season of Springer has now moved to 'poor year' with an 89 OPS+ and 0.8 bWAR. Amazing given how horrid it was looking. After the game on June 24th he was "hitting" 188/278/281 and I couldn't understand why he was in the lineup at all. Since he has been on fire - 395/480/814. Wow. Amazing what can happen in 13 games/51 PA.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#449009) #
Erik Swanson who came out of the Buffalo game yesterday was removed due to a heat related illness. So he should be back in there tomorrow. Yimi Garcia is due to pitch today.
soupman - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#449010) #
anyone know if search function will ever be restored to this site?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#449011) #
Here are my GM rankings

Gomes/Friedman - God like

Chernoff/Antonetti - better

Theo Epstein - very good
Mike Elias - very good
Alex Anthopoulus - very good
David Stearns - very good
AJ Preller - very good

Dave Dombrowski - good
Mike Hazen - good
Picollo - good
Brian Cashman - good
John Mozeliak - good
Peter Bendix - good
Chris Young - good
Mike Rizzo - good

Farhan Zaidi - average
Jerry Dipoto - average
Kim Ng - average
Ben Cherington - average
Craig Breslow -average
Nick Krall - average
Thad Levine - average
Ross Atkins/Mark Shapiro - average at best

Jed Hoyer - not good
Al Avila - not good

Chris Getz - bad bad

Angels GM - limited by owner
Colorado GM - limited by owner

Anthopoulus is good to very good depending on how much weight you give to the GM before him. He's among the top 10 GMs in baseball to me so when someone considers him a top 3 GM or god-like status then yes I consider that overrated. Next to the current regime he is given god like status.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#449012) #
* I'd further add that during his time with the Jays he was average to good whereas since then he is good to better.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#449014) #
Not only did Anthopoulos execute a superb trade in Grissom-Sale, he proceeded to extend Sale — $16m for 2024, $22m for 2025, buyout-free $18m club option for 2026.

Sale might win the Cy Young award this year.

Shockingly good trade.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#449015) #
Very good trade. I think you will find the guys in the "very good" or better category all have history of great trades and development. It's what helps to set them apart from the rest.
Michael - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#449016) #
There was a recent athletic piece by Keith Law noting that this year's draft class is poor/weak overall, so not exactly the best year to be super hopeful/excited about the draft (hopefully next year is stronger).

I think Dalimon5 is underrating both AA and Atkins/Shapiro. I think AA was already in the top 10 with the Jays, but is now comfortably top 5 and possibly top 3. I think Atkins/Shapiro are close to the top 10, maybe falling down to just missing out and being maybe around 12th best based on last year and this pulling them down a bit? Still above average. If you randomly swap our GM/pres with some other baseball team GM/pres I think we rate to get worse more often than better, and if you swap out only GM/pres from other team that are available/struggling (which generally takes the top candidates out of the picture as they are happily successful in the orgs they are in) you are very likely to get worse.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#449017) #
Agreed that trading C Sale was a good trade for AA as was the Donaldson trade. I personally did not think the Halladay trade was good. I also wish Cito had stayed here. Don't know how good the S Murphy and M Olsen trades with Oakland were.

Atkins has also made bad trades Donaldson to Cleveland is one and there definitely were others. I think the Berrios and Chapman trades were good trades. I will let others evaluate his 2019 trade deadline deals. Also people can evaluate the 2020, 21, 22 and 23 deadline trades. If he sells a lot this trade deadline then we got more data.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#449018) #
I think difference between GMs now is very very small. 20 years ago, there were a ton of bad front offices making moves that made no sense, valuing random things. Now, really maybe the Rockies are the only front office like that. What matters most is organization. A lot of that is up to front office, some is luck, some is ownership, a lot is where you are in the win cycle, some is just which city you're in. I think of Chaim Bloom for example, who was seen as a genius in Tampa (for good reason) and then went to Boston and failed because of the situation (Red Sox were wanting to trade Betts and start lower spending.) There is no GM who is going to go into Colorado and make that a winning organization. There's no (realistic) GM who is going into Los Angeles and making the Dodgers bad. Nobody who is going to take over the Angels is going to have an easy time. It doesn't matter what magic you can pull, you don't have the talent to trade or to really improve. Likewise, if you were to take over the Orioles right now, you'd be in fantastic shape and every GM would do well there.

I think at this point, the Jays need a reset for a variety of reasons (the communication around Berrios start is what sold me but in the end, they just haven't got it done) in the front office but expecting some GM to come in and make better moves or draft significantly better isn't likely.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#449019) #
To echo others - I think that Atkins has been quite good, maybe even very good with Free Agents / trades. How many anchor contracts do we have? Springer looked like one maybe, but now, looks like there might be some life left after all - and seems to still be playing good defense and a mostly good attitude.

I don't do all the big stats, but I would guess that Kikuchi, Gausmann, Bassitt have all been equal to or outperformed their contracts. IKF has been better than hoped for. Kiermaier was a case of (IMHO) - it worked last year, let's try it again. Perhaps Mattingly's "crush something" (or whatever) may have messed with his batting approach.
I would say overall, there is a surprisingly low count of "total flops" in free agent signings. Trades have been mixed.

The real lack has been the prospect / draft side of things. That part stinks. If we had a couple chomping-at-the-bit 2-3 WAR prospects ready, it would be fine, but it doesn't seem like we do. Maybe Horwitz and Schneider will be those guys - but it feels like their performances are a major surprise, rather than an expected outcome, so sure, getting lucky helps. But it's not like either one is a stud we can install at cleanup, and I doubt trading both of them would get us such in return. Whereas, once upon a time, you could have probably traded Vlad and Bo (and Biggio?) for a very good established cleanup hitter.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#449020) #
My assessment has soured on Shapiro and Atkins based on the last two years. The main reason is because it has become clear that they do not have an ability to pivot from their original plan. They had a Meta plan for waves of prospects and good spending in free agency. Probably a good plan to resign their core players too. Once things backfired like Bo not wanting to resign and Vlad likely wanting too much $$ this front office just left things as is and now has a core on its way out. When their drafting hasn't been above average and their farm has fallen below average they haven't done anything to try to change that. The only time I've ever seen them move quickly was to fire Charlie Montoyo. It seems to be that these home builders know how to make a good home without any major faults but it's not a home many homebuyers are going to offer on. I guess the old saying that what they have accomplished is less than the sum of its parts. That's Shapiro and Atkins and it's unfortunate because they have had great parts they have put together. If only they could overcome the obvious shortcomings, but I don't see that happening after one mediocre off season and one terrible off season.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#449021) #
We'd all be better off it we just listened to Nigel from the beginning.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#449022) #
Also: Wander Franco has been moved to Restricted List. Does this mean TB is off the hook for his salary?
uglyone - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#449023) #
"They had a Meta plan for waves of prospects and good spending in free agency."

every single FO that's ever been has a plan for waves of prospects and good pending in free agency.

that's not a plan - that's the job.
Ducey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#449024) #
As per they ranked the Jays system as 24th before the season started. Three of the top 5 (Ricky, Orlevis, Barriera) have floundered, with Nimmala and Jimenez maybe improving. No one else has elevated themselves to top 100 prospect status.

Below the Jays were

25 Oakland (no one would argue they have good management)
26 Atlanta (wait, I thought AA was a genius?)
27 Houston (fraud, got penalized, and lost picks)
28 KC (no idea why so low, incompetent?)
29 Miami (cheap and incompetent)
30 LAA (incompetent)

There is not really any excuse for the Jays to be in this neighbourhood. Yeah, they traded some prospects, but middle of the pack should be the floor.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#449025) #
I think the "waves and waves of prospects" was rhetoric aimed at encouraging the fan base to be patient with the front office's plan at the time.
soupman - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#449026) #
you mean that guy whose team hasn't lost their division since he took over, averaged 95+ wins, on pace for 92 this year without their MVP and Cy Young candidates? That's who you're being snarky about?
Ducey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#449027) #
Fangraphs ranking of farm systems (updated today but may not have been reconsidered) has the Jays at 25.
26. OAK
27. HOU
28. MIA
29. LAA
30. KCR

A critical article today on Sportsnet about the drafting. Farrell sounds like he has been going to the same cotillion as Atkins - a lot of jargon about process.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#449028) #
I just read that article about the Jays drafting and I have to say it doesn't look good on Atkins.

I should also note that I posted recently about the Jays drafting and I was critical. Not everyone on here agreed with me.

The article notes that the Jays had an excellent draft in 2016 but then Atkins fired Brian Parker who oversaw that draft due to philosophical differences. Some of the scouts who scouted and signed those players have left too. Since then the Jays rank in the bottom half of teams in terms of WAR drafted. The Jays have drafted about 33% of Baltimore's WAR, 40% of the Yankees and 50% of the Red Sox.

It doesn't look to me that there is enough WAR left in the minor leagues to pull the Jays into contention with the AL East.
JohnL - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#449029) #

To search this (or any other) site, Google: “what you’re looking for”
Glevin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#449030) #
Brian Parker did a horrible job drafting and should have been fired. I don't think the Jays have dragged particularly well (I'd call them average to below average maybe) under Atkins but WAR comparisons aren't all that instructive at this point imo. Early picks versus late, high school versus college, etc... I think that they've actually been weaker on IFA stuff.
soupman - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#449031) #
I had issues with finding older things. I'm not sure google is indexing past a certain date now.
pooks137 - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#449033) #
I personally did not think the Halladay trade was good.

It was a generation ago now but there was reporting years after the Halladay trade that Roy demanded a trade and essentially tied the Jays' hands saying he would only go to Philly.

So the 3 Top prospects the Jays got at the time were actually quite an accomplishment considering the Jays had no leverage (and possibly was also for optics from the MLB's part that superstars weren't being given away).

Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud and Brett Wallace were all seen as mega prospects at the time of the trade.

Drabek flamed out and was never good. d'Arnaud played forever, though not with the Jays and became half of R.A. Dickey coming off a Cy Young himself.

Brett Wallace was considering a pure hitting prospect but never had MLB success. I recall Keith Law making some scouting quip that Wallace's massive thighs made his swing too rigid and too easy to exploit.

Wallace was traded for Anthony Gose who was eventually flipped to the Tigers for a AA 2B in Devon Travis.

Devon Travis was a fine get who simply was ground down by injuries all too soon.

So two major leagues regulars in d'Arnaud and Travis ended up being a pretty decent return.

It was mostly Drabek that disappointed, but the industry was high on him as well.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#449034) #
Just checked google using before whatever I searched for and it grabbed stuff from 2024 (used 2024 as the search term). Not ideal but this site is purely volunteer based and while I program for a living, I don't do php so I wouldn't be ideal for fixing any bugs the site has right now. Someday some of the people here might have time/energy to redo the site again (I think this is v3 of it) but with no money in it, it is hard to justify the time/effort.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#449035) #
I choose to believe AA knew Drabek and Wallace weren't anywhere near as good as their rep (stats were pretty clear on this at the time) and that he was always keeping in mind their future tradeability from those reps when forced into making thst trade.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#449036) #
The Halladay trade was winter 2009.
  • Kyle Drabek: he was the star, BA #25 prospect, ended career with -0.1 bWAR.
  • Travis d'Arnaud: Career star of the deal in the end, #81 BA prospect, by pre-2012 would climb to top 20 status, lifetime 8.2 bWAR, still active. Was traded as part of the R.A. Dickey deal.
  • Michael Taylor: #29 on BA top 100 has -0.7 bWAR lifetime, traded immediately for Brett Wallace (#27, -0.2 bWAR) who was traded 7 months later for Anthony Gose (not a top 100 at the time, climbed as high as #39) who is now a pitcher with 2.0 bWAR lifetime
So for Halladay the Jays got 3 top 100 prospects, 2 in the top 30. That is a heck of a haul most would think. But per the Jays luck since 1993 none reached 10 WAR even (d'Arnaud might still). The Taylor-Wallace-Gose thing was quite funny and had another chapter - Gose 1-1 for Devon Travis in 2014 winter whose 5.8 bWAR as a Jay is easily the most direct production the Jays got via that deal (Dickey had 7.1 bWAR here but others were in that deal, most infamously Noah Syndergaard and his 15.6 bWAR but hasn't pitched this year and isn't signed by anyone right now - maybe the Jays should call...)
Glevin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#449037) #
Halladay trade was terrible but from what I know AA was very limited in his options so hard to blame him at all. When I talk about how front offices have changed, just look at Ash trading Green and Clemens. No front office now would make those trades today. Just painful.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#449040) #
For fun look at Gillick's trades back before there was much minor league coverage - he was known for his great memory which made it possible for him to get insane throw ins. 1982 offseason: Dave Collins, Mike Morgan, Fred McGriff and cash to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray - McGriff was in rookie ball at the time, hit 9 HR with a 272/413/456 line but Gillick loved the kids power and remembered him (or scouts reviews of him). Or getting Rance Mulliniks (key part of the 80's Jays) for Phil Huffman. Or Cecil Fielder for Leon Roberts. Probably could find a half dozen more steals he did back then with minimal effort. A more recent steal was AA dealing Vernon Wells and his $89 mil left on his contract (-0.1 bWAR left in him) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera in 2011. Ash made lots of really, really bad deals - worst imo was David Wells (3rd in Cy voting that year) for Mike Sirotka who was so injured he never played again, or the Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza deal in 2000 - that isn't touching the Clemens or Green deals where he was just trying to save face.

Each GM has had their blind spots and their strengths - Atkins free agent signings have been the best since Gillick's 92 & 93 wave. Ash had by far the best drafts of any Jays GM. AA had the best mid-season deals in 2015. JPR...well...he was very good at media relations his first year but after that there really wasn't anything good.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#449041) #
I am putting out a missing persons report for Steward Berroa.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#449043) #
sitting by the dock of the bay
watching the tides roll away
JohnL - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#449044) #
Re: Google search for older items. I thought about some term that might have been on the Box WAY back & searched “White Jays” (old-timers would remember that controversy from 2003. (Toronto Star story) Google found it.
electric carrot - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#449048) #
There's the Matt Chapman I know.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#449049) #
Judging any GM by the return they got for a player who will only agree to go to one place is nonsensical.

I’ve said all year that Clement is a guy who does a handful of useful things decently well such that he should have a home here for the next few years. He’s not young and no star but he could give this team 300 useful ABs a year for next to nothing in salary.
Kelekin - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#449050) #
Chapman coming in clutch again!
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:24 AM EDT (#449051) #
I believe that Francis can do this. He can blow this if he really bears down and focuses.
Ducey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#449052) #
Bo leaves and the offense explodes.

Interesting that the manager said that Ernie is playing better because he is playing regularly. What a concept. Hopefully Jimenez and Berrora get some run now too.
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#449053) #
I was hoping they'd put Berroa out there for the last inning at least with the massive lead but I guess with this pen even a 6 run lead with 1 inning to go isn't enough to let a kid play.

I suspect at this point that Berroa is here to pinch run and only play defense when all other options are used, and hit when there is literally no other choice but to use a pitcher. If Varsho is out for a day or two then _maybe_ they'll let him play but I doubt it. Only if Varsho & Kiermaier are both out will he start. He might get to hit in a game if the Jays are losing 10-1 or something otherwise.
jerjapan - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#449054) #
Berroa isn't on the prospect track though, he's on the bench/depth track, or at least he was until this breakout season.   My best guess as to how the org views him now? 

Barger and Horowitz played some when called up, as they are prospects.  Berroa is not a prospect.  Same deal with Lukes last year.  CF / pinch running / 5th OF profile. 

I'd play the kid myself though.  KK has the same profile, at this point.  Why not give the young non-millionaire the chance? 
Glevin - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#449055) #
Worst day for Jays injuries ever? The following people had to leave their games. Macko, Tiedemann, Varsho, Bichette, Febles.

As for Berroa, I'd play him once they trade KK. Don't see him as likely an everyday player so I'd rather player Barger who has more of a shot but Jays need to give guys abs to see what they have.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#449056) #
Prior to last night, the four mainstays among the position players (VGJ, Springer, Turner and Bichette) have 1302 PAs in 2024, slashed .245/.336/.373, and produced 3.1 fWAR.  The four young players who have come-up over the last calendar year (Horwitz, Schneider, Clement and Jimenez) have 575 PAs, slashed .247/.325/.414 and produced 2.6 fWAR.  The young players have been better hitters and better players, and have been given less work and less time at the top of the order.  If you include 2023 and last night's game, the margins would be greater.  The only thing the veterans have done even remotely acceptably is reach base, but they negate that to s significant degree by being slow/poor baserunners.
bpoz - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#449057) #
Kirk had a V good May and July with the bat.

I am not listening to trade rumors but I strongly believe that the Jays will be sellers at the trade deadline. So they should be playing their trade chips like KK & J Turner to show that they are healthy at least. They are probably shopping Kikuchi & Jansen as well. Relievers like Yimi Garcia always have value. I believe that there is a possibility that Bassit & Green could be traded. I would estimate that Bassit/Green should provide a good collection of prospects because they are under control for next year.

There are some good teams like Cleveland, Baltimore, LAD and Philadelphia who would add to become stronger in the playoffs. This year there are a huge number of teams that can win a playoff spot. Many in this group have not done so in a while so strike now. This means few sellers and more buyers. IMO the biggest trade chip if he is available is Garret Crochet of the CWS.
scottt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#449058) #
Travis d'Arnaud was seen as expendable because the Jays had J.P. Arencibia.
scottt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#449059) #
The Jays is a large market. Small market teams have a huge advantage in the draft. That includes Tampa and Baltimore. They also get better compensation for departing free agents. So, I don't quite agree that the Jays should be middle of the pack or better. They need to focus on International free agency. That part is important but there is a lot of luck involved in the draft and the Jays play with a handicap.

Tampa has done poorly in the draft. They've excelled at trading players for near prospects.
The Jays tried to do that with Kirk and Jansen but ended up trading Moreno.

The Yankees excel with international free agents.
They used to get their pick of prospects by paying over slot.
It's funny how they lost so many good pitchers to the rule 5, yet aren't drowning in great pitching prospects. The Yankees farm system gets over hyped to a ridiculous point. It's probably also true of the Dodgers'. I mean, they couldn't find anyone to play second base this year?

scottt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#449060) #
There's no reason to keep KK. I can see some opening for Turner.
Neither will return much.

Kikuchi could be a decent trade chip if they throw the towel.
It's difficult to swap catcher in the middle of the year and Jansen has cooled down a lot.
I will be surprised if someone pony up for him.

I think they hang on to Bassitt and Green but should be listening on Bichette.

uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#449061) #
" (VGJ, Springer, Turner and Bichette) have 1302 PAs in 2024, slashed .245/.336/.373, and produced 3.1 fWAR. The four young players who have come-up over the last calendar year (Horwitz, Schneider, Clement and Jimenez) have 575 PAs, slashed .247/.325/.414 and produced 2.6 fWAR."

Just note that Vlad is younger than all those "young hitters" and hitting better than all of them except Horwitz.
Glevin - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#449062) #
If Tiedemann and/or Macko are out a long time that makes the Jays path even clearer for me. Long-term rebuilds don't make any sense these days with expanded playoffs and limited high draft picks, but Jays absolutely shouldn't be running in back next year trying to win. Look at next year as a year to play young guys and see if they are a part of the future, to develop talent, and to sign guys who can help long term or be traded at deadline. I would like to see a Vlad extension if possible and not crazy and would like to trade Bo but that's probably impossible because he's decided to go from an elite shortstop to basically waiver wire quality. Gausman, Bassit, Green should also all be available for trade if offer is good.
adrianveidt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#449063) #
Travis d'Arnaud was seen as expendable because the Jays had J.P. Arencibia.
I'm still laughing. Great line because I guess it's true.
electric carrot - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#449064) #
"Just note that Vlad is younger than all those "young hitters" and hitting better than all of them except Horwitz."

If the Jays trade Vladdy or if he leaves for somewhere else because of low ball offers, this will be the Jays equivalent of the curse of the Bambino. Mark my words. He's just the kind of highly skilled motivated young player with room to grow who will make you pay.
Glevin - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#449065) #
"If the Jays trade Vladdy or if he leaves for somewhere else because of low ball offers, this will be the Jays equivalent of the curse of the Bambino. Mark my words. He's just the kind of highly skilled motivated young player with room to grow who will make you pay."

He's 25 years old and has been in the majors for 5 years. If he's such a highly skilled, motivated player, why haven't the results been better? Why expect them to get better as he gets older? What's going to change at 27 that isn't there at 25? I like Vlad and hope the Jays sign him but he's 80th in baseball in WAR and 27th in WRC+ this year. He's been as valuable as Josh Naylor and Jake Cronenworth. Maybe he's got another level and I'd be happy for the jays to extend him, but if another team is willing to pay the price like he's an elite player, then yeah, I'd almost certainly take that deal. There is absolutely some upside with Vlad but also plenty of downside.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#449066) #
Yordan Alvarez is a significantly more valuable player than Vladdy and he signed a 6/$115m extension with the Astros after his age-25 season.

I think it would be a mistake to give Vladdy a monster 10+ year contract at $30m+ AAV at this point.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#449067) #
can't wait to see how we use all that money we save from not signing vladdy!

all sorts of stars i'm sure.
electric carrot - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#449069) #
"He's 25 years old and has been in the majors for 5 years. If he's such a highly skilled, motivated player, why haven't the results been better? Why expect them to get better as he gets older?"

Typically players are at their best in their late twenties. I think Vladdy dominated early as a kid and did not have to try and got away with a lot. It seems to me like the type of player who is still learning what he can do, and what he should not do. Also, having watched him for a while now I think he is maturing into the type of player who is more thoughtful and becoming more a student of the game. I think what we are seeing now is only a part of his potential. When his raw talent lines up better with his better baseball wisdom, that's going to be pretty to watch. I know there are no stats to go with the analysis but sometimes qualitative data is relevant also. Just my thoughts.
Michael - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#449070) #
Yordan Alvarez signed his extension when he only had just over 2 years of service time and had made only 765K the year before the extension, so it was for basically 3 years of arbitration eligible and 3 years of FA. The FA years he's going to be paid 26.8M/year for his 29-31 age years, but the 6/116 was not at all a FA type salary. Alvarez's most similar player is Vlad Guerrero Jr actually according to b-ref. This would be similar to signing Vlad 2 years ago, except Vlad at that point was already making $7.9M as a base instead of $700k, so in some ways it was more like signing Vlad 3 years ago. And even if we had for 6/116 he'd still be making $25M/year each of the next 3 years.

Assume a Vlad extension after this year is somewhere between 9/$250M to 10/$300M depending a little on how well he does this year, and I think that's a more realistic view on value than the 6/116.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#449072) #
But if we're comparing the two players, Vladdy's contract should be discounted because Vladdy (career wRC+ 131) is a significantly inferior hitter to Alvarez (career wRC+ 164).

If Vladdy hits around his career average for the life of the contract, and exhibits below-average (and declining) defense at 1B and baserunning, then he is not worth a 10/$300m+ outlay. Also, my guess is that he wants a contract that is more in the $350m+ range.
Nigel - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#449073) #
100% Michael. There’s zero connection between those two contracts.

I think this discussion about Vladdy is a bit odd. I think the decision with him is pretty simple. I go back to something I’ve said before. I don’t think it’s clear whether the team would be better off with a) Vladdy; or b) a good (not elite prospect), the $25-30m salary and allowing Horwitz to move to his best defensive position. The thing about Vladdy is that if you think he’s a 135-140 wRC+ hitter then he’s still only a 3.5 or so WAR player (with his base running and defensive issues). That makes him a good player but not a “pay at any cost player”. So, I think the decision is actually pretty simple. You make him a fair offer, don’t break the bank (for me this would be around $25m per) and if he says no you move on. This team doesn’t need a complete rebuild but it does need to make some hard decisions and do something this offseason. Another do nothing offseason is a total disaster. Vladdy is part of that. I hope he stays but I also think plan B works.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#449074) #
I think Vlad is having a decent season but would be even better if he had a genuine threat batting behind him. ( Big, scary bat) Nobody on the current team profiles like that and it seems Vlad has his worst swings when he's trying to do too much.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#449075) #
it's gonna be superfun trying to rebuild without any prospects.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#449076) #
I'm not literally comparing the two contracts (Alvarez extension and hypothetical Vlad extension). I'm pointing out that the Astros found a creative way to extend an excellent player through his peak seasons without breaking the bank. If the Blue Jays wait until this off-season or next off-season and then give Vladdy a monster contract (perhaps for marketing purposes to appease a frustrated fan base), I would consider that a disappointing move.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#449077) #
Who here is proposing a monster contract? I think most of us believe that Vlad isn't signed because the front office is smart enough not to overpay. The ceiling is Devers contract.

I don't use WAR for contract value for core pieces. It's not perfect. If you use that argument against Vlad then you should use it for someone like Varsho who would deserve a monster deal.
Ducey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#449078) #
"The Jays is a large market. Small market teams have a huge advantage in the draft. That includes Tampa and Baltimore. They also get better compensation for departing free agents. So, I don't quite agree that the Jays should be middle of the pack or better."

The QO compensation varies but if the Jays dont pay the CB Tax, they get a pick after the 2nd round, instead of after the 4th round. The teams that received revenue sharing get one after the first round. An advantage for sure, however, the following teams did not get revenue sharing and have farm systems better than the Jays:

2. Cubs
4. Padres
7. Texas
11. Yankees
12. Nationals
13. Mets
14. Red Sox
17. Giants
20. White Sox
22. Phillies
23. Cardinals

24. Jays

If the advantage from being a poor team was so pronounced, then Oakland (25th), KC (28th), and MIA (29th) should be up the list. NB: Houston would be ahead of the Jays except for their penalties for garbage can gate.

If the Jays were competent at developing a farm system they should have a floor of where the Mets and Red Sox are. As I said in my previous post, instead they are hanging around with the incompetent front offices in this regard.

John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#449079) #
The fact of the matter is there is no comparison between Alvarez and Vlad - Alvarez signed when he had little to no leverage, and only covers 2 free agent years otherwise paying him about what he'd have gotten via arbitration thus putting all the risk on the team for all but the last 2 years. He signed in mid 2022, at that point he had two 3 bWAR seasons and a lost year (2020 when he played just 2 games) but was in the midst of his best season (6.8 bWAR). He also had zero defensive value (lifetime 1422 innings in LF) - 3 times Vlad cracked 1000 innings at 1B, 855 at 3B lifetime. That makes him more useful to a club, as he isn't a pure DH ala Alvarez (Frank Thomas and David Ortiz historical comparisons) - guys who had to have a 120+ OPS+ to have any value, 140+ to be really useful. Vlad at 120 is a league average regular, 140+ an all-star. Alvarez needs to be 150+ to be an all-star (160+ lifetime so not an issue yet).

As to contracts - Vlad is a 2-4 WAR guy it seems, with the odd time climbing higher (2021). That is worth about $25 mil a year based on how the market has acted. A 5 year deal at that would make sense and Vlad might consider it given he'd be back as a free agent around age 30 when a mega deal can be had again. But odds are he wants a lifetime deal (10+ years). Safe to say given past trends in MLB a $25 mil season will be nothing special in 10 years (probably normal for decent closers, high end middle relievers, like $10 mil is today) so a 10 year $250 mil deal shouldn't be a problem for the Jays. The question is will Vlad demand a $30 per deal? He isn't quite at that level, closer to $20 per imo but the market would decide. If he insists on that size the Jays might let him go to free agency as a reality check, then try to resign him during that time. The weak market last winter might put a damper on expectations for players though so this year might be ideal for signing a long term deal.
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#449080) #
Farm system rankings are interesting - St Louis traditionally has been a top notch farm team (first club to have a farm system) so for them to be at #23 is surprising. I don't keep a close eye on anyone else so not a shock I didn't notice they fell so far. Yankee prospects always seem very overrated (see any deal the Jays have made for Yankee prospects over the years).

A bit of an incentive there for the Jays to push down payroll by $10-$15 mil right away ($30 mil for preseason salary) but if they trade away the guys who could get QO then that advantage goes poof.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#449081) #
Gausman vs. Hicks is fun, as they are both facing former teams. 

My point wasn't about Guerrero Jr. on his own.  Indeed including him with the group of mainstays who have been given leading roles on the club makes the statistical match-up closer this year.  The point was that, as a group, they have been given every chance and simply have not delivered.  Last year, they were a bit better.  Springer, Guerrero and Bichette average 650 PAs and totalled 7.1 fWAR or a little less than 2.4 apiece.  Bichette carried the mail for the mainstays last year, but the group performance over the last year and a half has been entirely average.  You do not want players like this at the centre of your club, and all aspects of management treat them as such. 
greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#449082) #
If you want another comp, in 2022 Jose Ramirez signed a 7/$141m extension with the Guardians after his age-28 season. It was a team-friendly extension for a player who is superior to Vladdy. You could offer Vladdy a bit more than that, but he’s probably asking for double or triple Jose’s payout.
Ducey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#449083) #
Keith Law has the Jays taking Brody Brecht on Sunday.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#449084) #
Old Fogies Lineup This Year:

* SS Falefa (29): 281pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650
* 3B Turner (39): 299pa, 106wrc+, 0.4war/650
* C Jansen (29): 203pa, 100wrc+, 3.2war/650
* 2B Clement (28): 183pa, 97wrc+, 1.8war/650
* RF Springer (34): 352pa, 94wrc+, 2.0war/650
* LF Biggio (29): 174pa, 81wrc+, 0.7war/650
* 1B Vogelbach (31): 79pa, 69wrc+, -2.5war/650
* CF Kiermaier (34): 185pa, 48wrc+, 0.0war/650
* DH Serven (29): 13pa, 10wrc+, -5.0war/650

Young Guns Lineup This Year:

* 3B Jimenez (23): 13pa, 206wrc+, 10.0war/650
* 2B Horwitz (26): 104pa, 160wrc+, 7.5war/650
* 1B Guerrero (25): 399pa, 135wrc+, 2.8war/650
* LF Schneider (25): 292pa, 103wrc+, 2.2war/650
* DH Martinez (22): 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* CF Varsho (27): 314pa, 90wrc+, 3.7war/650
* C Kirk (25): 177pa, 79wrc+, 3.3war/650
* SS Bichette (26): 328pa, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650
* RF Barger (24): 63pa, 1wrc+, -7.2war/650

Combined Best:

* 3B Jimenez (23): 13pa, 206wrc+, 10.0war/650
* 2B Horwitz (26): 104pa, 160wrc+, 7.5war/650
* 1B Guerrero (25): 399pa, 135wrc+, 2.8war/650
* SS Falefa (29): 281pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650
* DH Turner (39): 299pa, 106wrc+, 0.4war/650
* LF Schneider (25): 292pa, 103wrc+, 2.2war/650
* C Jansen (29): 203pa, 100wrc+, 3.2war/650
* RF Springer (34): 352pa, 94wrc+, 2.0war/650
* CF Varsho (27): 314pa, 90wrc+, 3.7war/650

Combined Worst:

* 3B Clement (28): 183pa, 97wrc+, 1.8war/650
* 2B Martinez (22): 3pa, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650
* LF Biggio (29): 174pa, 81wrc+, 0.7war/650
* C Kirk (25): 177pa, 79wrc+, 3.3war/650
* SS Bichette (26): 328pa, 69wrc+, 0.4war/650
* 1B Vogelbach (31): 79pa, 69wrc+, -2.5war/650
* CF Kiermaier (34): 185pa, 48wrc+, 0.0war/650
* DH Serven (29): 13pa, 10wrc+, -5.0war/650
* RF Barger (24): 63pa, 1wrc+, -7.2war/650
bpoz - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#449085) #
I would be happy with Brody Brecht.
Katie - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#449086) #
I am putting out a missing persons report for Steward Berroa.

The Brian Jeroloman treatment.

can't wait to see how we use all that money we save from not signing vladdy!

all sorts of stars i'm sure.

We'll certainly have a leg up on signing them to a fair market deal. As, you know, compared to the star we have who plays for the team, appears happy in Toronto and expresses a willingness to sign here long-term.

John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#449087) #
Brody Brecht is interesting - 14.2 K/9 in college vs 6.8 BB/9 - sounds a lot like a new Nuke LaLoosh (or the real wild thing - Mitch Williams 7.1 BB/9 vs 8.6 K/9 in the majors plus that wonderful HR given up to Joe Carter). If he can find the strike zone he probably would be solid, maybe even a star, but without control it is meaningless.
Glevin - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#449088) #
Doesn't really matter much if someone wants to stay in city if they don't give any sort of discount. I think I'd do up to 10/$250 for him which I think is more than fair. It's a lot with plenty of risk but also some reward and would be good to keep him. Freeman signed a 6 year $27M a year deal he was much older than Vladdy but also significantly better and much more consistent.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#449089) #
This certainly inspires a lot of confidence heading into Farrell's sixth draft. From Ben Nicholson-Smith's article yesterday, Farrell unironically states ...

Asked what the Blue Jays do best, Farrell pointed to the refinement of the team’s methodology. He said the team’s scouting department is “constantly thinking” about how to improve and “continuously reflecting” on how to make better decisions.

"I think it's probably continuing to improve our own internal processes,” Farrell said. “The way that that we're deploying our scouts and the way that we're connecting with our player development and bringing those two sides together to form a path and a plan for each potential amateur prospect.”

Hodgie - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#449090) #
Would it surprise anyone that as of today, Freeman and Guerrero have the same wRC+ (131) through their respective age 25 seasons? Freeman was (and still is) the better baserunner and defender. I don't have to squint hard to see Guerrero having a similar career arc, albeit driven more by his bat.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#449091) #
What's this FO's draft record now 9yrs in?

Legit very good

* Bichette (26) 17.4

Good for a bit

* Manoah (26) 7.5
* Biggio (29) 6.9

Maybe good

* Schneider (25) 2.5
* Horwitz (26) 1.1

Interesting Prospects

* Tiedemann (21)
* Nimmala (18)
* Barger (24) -0.7

Pure filler

* Winkowski (26) 1.9
* Adams (28) 1.7
* Noda (28) 1.7
* Jackson (29) 1.5
* Palacios (28) -0.1
* Groshans (24) -0.1
* Martin (25) -0.2
* Smith (28) -0.2
* Stevenson (27) -0.4
* Pearson (27) -0.5
* Snead (29) -0.5

Marc Hulet - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#449092) #
I'm not sure Toronto has the development record/chops to be taking on a project like Brody Brecht.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#449093) #
I have to squint very hard, Hodgie, to see any comparison between Freeman and VGJ..  Freeman's development was extremely unusual- Freeman was very good at 23-24 (145 wRC+) and better at 33-34.  Most players are  closer to George Springer, who was a very good hitter at 25-27, and not so much at 33-34.  Freeman was also a well-rounded athlete and that's more likely to lead to durability and improvement.  The positive example for Vlad is someone like David Ortiz, who developed long-lasting power at age 27.  Guerrero Jr. could definitely do that.   The chance of Guerrero Jr. hitting .325 and .331 at age 32-33, as Freeman did, is in my view, pretty much nil. 

Vlad's bat might completely collapse too, and he doesn't have anything else but the bat.  He's not like Soto at all (who was self-possessed from the beginning), and it's mostly about maturity.  He seems to be getting there, and if you want to believe that he'll become very disciplined (as both Freeman and Ortiz are and were), you can. 
Glevin - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#449094) #
Jays just need to get prospects into the system. Not having 2nd and 3rd round picks last year hurt but just the lack of quality in the draft and IFA last few years has left the system pretty bare between low minors and AAA. I always prefer hitters to pitchers but you do need some pitchers too I guess (sigh)
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#449095) #
Huh, only 1 batter sub 670 OPS today - Kiermaier (with Varsho out there wasn't much choice). Horwitz, Jimenez, and Schneider all in the lineup.

Of note: Kirk now over 600 for OPS thanks to going 8 for 15 his last 4 games with 2 doubles and a walk. The 627 he is at is his highest of the season outside of opening day (1-3 with a walk gave him an 833 OPS that day). Kiermaier and Bo thus are the only ones still in the 'what end of the bat should I use' category. Bo is the only hitter currently on the roster who is negative for bWAR this year. Pitchers have Francis, Pop (both -0.7), Gausman (-0.5), Cabrera (-0.4), Pearson (-0.2), Little (-0.1) in the negatives for bWAR. Yikes. With this teams defense there isn't much defense for having that poor of a year as a pitcher.
mathesond - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#449096) #
Crooked number in the first inning? Crooked number in the first inning!
mathesond - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#449097) #
Crooked numbers for both sides!
Nigel - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#449098) #
Ortiz “developed power at 27” - true but very likely due to PEDs.
Ducey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#449099) #
"I'm not sure Toronto has the development record/chops to be taking on a project like Brody Brecht."

I'm not sure either, although they developed Ricky T. He just cant stay healthy. Manoah was a success, until he wasn't.

In reading up on him (Fangraphs has story on him) he dropped his BB/9 to 4 from 7.7 in his last 6 games. This coincided with him seeing someone to get him more focused. He is also a football player at heart, who only took up baseball full time.

One of the writers at Fangraphs has given him an 80 grade slider, and the consensus on is fastball is that he was not encouraged to throw it a lot but that it is 70 grade and a real weapon. He also has the makings of a decent splitter/ changeup. Add that to a 6'5" 235 athlete and there is top of the rotation possibilities. These guys dont grow on trees.

I'd be excited because of the upside. They can get their usual short armed OBP infielders later in the draft

Hopefully developmental problems will be fixed when Atkins gets fired. It seems like the facilities are at least there.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#449100) #
I think kk is on waivers?
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#449101) #
KK is in CF and has a hit today - can't be on waivers when playing iirc.
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#449102) #
Ah, he is on revocable - the kind that used to be used a lot to gage trade interest, and how the Jays got out of Randy Myers contract years ago.
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#449103) #
Gotta love Jimenez. Bo is out and Jimenez took ball 4 but the ump called it a strike, he just calmly hits a single up the middle to drive in a run. Love it.
Nigel - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#449104) #
Small sample size but Jimenez puts up one good plate appearance after another. Same with Horwitz.
mathesond - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#449105) #
Hmm...makes you wonder if maybe the player development team is actually doing something right after all...
John Northey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#449106) #
Yep, clearly they are doing something right in AAA teaching these kids. Just need some pitchers to come out of there hot like these hitters have been.
mathesond - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#449107) #
I dunno John, if the pitchers came out as hot as the hitters, that would be 2 things being done right. Not sure I want to set expectations that high :)
Joe - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#449108) #
There's actually no such thing as revocable waivers any more, and MLBTR updated their article.
Ducey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#449109) #
Interesting. As KK was not removed from the 40 man, he can keep playing and stay on the team as long as he is not claimed.

Dont get your hopes up Steward.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#449110) #
Stoeten notes that the Jays need to shed about $10m to get under the first luxury tax threshhold and reset the luxury tax penalties.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#449111) #
That dude is washed up. Seems a lot of those "drunk jays" sobered up.
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#449112) #

Jays fishing to see if someone will eat the $4.5M or so still owed to KK this year.

If Jays sell, trimming about $11M total could have long-term repeater tax implications.

That said, can also use your $ as big-market team to eat $ and get better pieces back (non-KK division).

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) July 11, 2024

Corollary to this: if they plan to offer a QO to Danny Jansen (if he doesn't get traded), being a non-tax team moves the comp pick up to after competitive balance round B (which shouldn't exist) from after round 4 as a tax team.

— Joshua (@JoshuaHowsam) July 11, 2024

Dropping below the CBT would also change the penalty for signing a QO free agent this offseason from a loss of a 2nd and 4th round picks and $1M in IFA bonus pool money to a loss of a 2nd rounder and $500K of bonus pool.

— Joshua (@JoshuaHowsam) July 11, 2024
uglyone - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#449113) #
Jimenez has been reminding me of someone....but I wasn't quite able to pinpoint it.

but maybe Yunel? (hopefully without the emotional issues)
Spifficus - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#449114) #
If I understand the CBT rules correctly, another way to deal with it could be to deal 2025+ salary, even if the team pays the full ride for the rest of 2024. If I'm reading things right, dealing someone like Basset and paying the rest of his 2024 should save $20M+ averaged over 2 years, so ~$10M from the CBT calculations.

Also, put me in the Sign Vlad (and Bichette, though to a lesser degree) If It's Sane-ish camp, using Harper's deal as a guideline of using length to pad total value. The team needs to play into their strength and use their veteran starters as trade chips, and hoard above-average bats where they have them (or can get them).
pooks137 - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#449115) #
That dude is washed up. Seems a lot of those "drunk jays" sobered up.

The long-defunct Drunk Jays Fans blog was of the same vintage as the Batter's Box. Though the Box predates it.

The blog existed in the early aughts. Its two main contributors were Andrew Stoeten and Dustin Parkes. Other members included Bergkamp (obsessed with Josh Towers) and Chairman Mao (on the masthead but I don't recall any contributions).

The Score would eventually absorb the blog by hiring Parkes (and fellow blogger Drew Fairservice/Ghostrunner on First) to write daily Baseball general interest pieces. Named "Getting Blanked", the two mostly wrote about the Giants and the Dutch soccer team.

Stoeten himself would soon be hired on as well to migrate his DJF musings under The Score brand along with their archives (though sanitized, as pieces about the Legend of Wade Boggs drinking almost a hundred beers on a cross-country flight and tips on picking up women at the ballpark were scrubbed).

The experiment lasted a year or two. One day, The Score announced they were closing their entire online division and focusing on their app.

The trio would be out of work. The Score app survives to this day with a heavy betting focus. The TV network would eventually be sold to Rogers to become their third channel, Sportsnet 360.

I believe Bergkamp became a chef prior to The Score arc. Parkes actually went on to run the Arts section of the National Post for a good decade. Fairservice returned to 9-5 life.

Stoeten started his own blog again called but lost the old DJF archives. He eventually signed on to Blue Jays Nation and their Nation blogs. He was there for a few years. They must have had some startup money at some point because I believe they briefly paid established writers like John Lott for their work after the NP shutdown their Sports section.

The remnants of Stoeten's audience who had followed him across 3 moves hated the Comments section of the new site. They also didn't appreciate when Stoeten told them to shove it in response.

A splinter community was formed over at

Stoeten would eventually get hired on at The Athletic. He ran their podcast with Score alum Drew Fairservice for a few seasons.

Andrew was eventually let go purportedly for interviewing Stephen Brunt while intoxicated for the network. Fairservice and Kaitlyn McGrath continued the podcast for awhile.

Stoeten now seems to make a living by writing for Substack and covering Jays content on Twitter.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#449117) #
I acknowledge the arguments in favour of a rebuild, but is it delusional to think that maybe the Blue Jays should try "running it back" next year (with some judicious additions, of course)?

Next year they'll have Horwitz, Schneider (Davis), Jimenez and Clement for the entire season. The rotation still looks promising with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt and Rodriguez as a front four. Vladdy is improved, Bichette should be better next year, and Springer now looks competent again. IKF and Kirk will still be here.

It's not a great core of players, but there may be something there to work with.
adrianveidt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#449118) #
Maybe the Jays can arrange to only play against the west coast teams from now on?
scottt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#449120) #
Vladdy already hits the ball harder than just about anybody out there.
He has a very low launch angle and has hammered a lot of balls into the grounds the last few years.
He was the homerun champion at 22.
He just need to tweak his swing a bit.
Springer has made a bit adjustment after struggling for about 2 months.
I think Vladdy will make an adjustment whenever he feels he has to.
Maybe when he loses a step and decide to jug around the bases.
Right now he plays what he feels is the right way.
He's the only All-Star on the team, can't be that bad.

scottt - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#449121) #
If I understand the CBT rules correctly, another way to deal with it could be to deal 2025+ salary, even if the team pays the full ride for the rest of 2024. If I'm reading things right, dealing someone like Basset and paying the rest of his 2024 should save $20M+ averaged over 2 years, so ~$10M from the CBT calculations.

The tax hit is the average value of the contract.
If they trade someone like Bassitt than he won't factor into next year's calculation.
To lessen the hit this year, they need another team to pick some/most of what he is owned this year.
Another way  would be to extend a player to a lower average annual value. Not likely.

Trying to offload KK as a pure payroll release indicates that they would love to get under the tax threshold. They might focus on that rather than getting interesting prospects back.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#449122) #
David Schoenfield of ESPN, in awarding the Blue Jays an F for their first half, said there are “bad vibes just oozing everywhere” on the team. I wonder what he is basing that on.

Meanwhile, a Global News headline: “Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette going viral for openly flirting with trade: ‘I want to win’”

Basically, he said he would he happy to play for SF because they’re committed to winning and are in a position to land the right kind of players. Hmmm…he seems to be really unimpressed with how the Blue Jays are run.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#449123) #
Not putting Turner on waivers means the front office wants to lower the tax threshold while still competing.
christaylor - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#449124) #
I suspect the FO is not a fan of how he's played, either. If he wants to win, he needs to play better.

Vlad often gets called out here and in other places for his immaturity, but generally, Bo has had a free pass. In retrospect, his not wanting his swing tinkered with when drafted ought to have been a red flag.

Maybe paying Vladdy and moving Bo to 2B next season would give his head a shake.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#449125) #
Two things can be true. Bo needs to play better if he wants to win. Blue Jays management needs to manage better if they want to win.
Glevin - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#449126) #
You can't complain about your team not winning when you have a 0 WAR. Not only his fault by a long stretch but, man, look at yourself first.
Ducey - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#449127) #
"Not putting Turner on waivers means the front office wants to lower the tax threshold while still competing."


They likely have spoken to teams regarding their players.

KK likely has little to no value so they are just putting him out there for free to see if someone will bite.

Turner might not be on waivers because they have a team or two interested and may actually get something for him.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 11 2024 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#449128) #
This team just won 4 of 6 and it's a perfect recipe for this FO to hang their hat on to not blow things up. Turner will not bring much back, similar to KK. They are better off keeping him in the off chance they are able to get bullpen reinforcements returning and going on a run. They need any offense they can get which Turner provides. There is no contender who would play Turner at 1B or DH and give up a worthwhile return. There is no reason not to put him on waivers unless you a) plan to keep him for "a run" or b) have teams wanting to trade for him. Facts: Atkins came out last month and said none of his impending free agents were generating any calls from other teams.

Yankees - have Ben Rice and Stanton
Orioles - Ohearn, Mountcastle and a bevy of good hitting prospects
Red Sox - what would the Sox give up for JT? Nothing valuable
Twins - no room
Royals - need DH and 1B for Perez
Astros - maybe?
Mariners - maybe?

Options in the NL are even weaker to plug in Justin Turner, therefore I don't see any other reason to not waiver him unless they plan to still potentially fight for 3rd wild card and only trade most valuable pending free agent which would be Kikuchi and maybe Garcia if they are out by end of month.
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#449129) #
"Atkins came out last month and said none of his impending free agents were generating any calls from other teams."

Yikes this actually made me pity Atkins for a bit. Picturing him all sad and alone waiting by a silent phone.
scottt - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#449132) #
"I want to win. ...and the Giants are obviously committed to that".

The Giants have an average offense, but they are 25th in starter ERA and 23rd in reliever ERA while playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

How are they committed to winning? They have scooped up a bunch of free agents on bad contracts with player options at the cost of draft picks. They pick 13th Sunday then nothing until pick 116.

Soler looks like a bust. Does Chapman opt out or stay? Is Hicks a starter long term? Snell probably stay put to pick up another 30M. Robbie Ray has 2 more years at 25M whenever he's back from TJ. Conforto is a free agent.

They have a few utility guys and second basemen in their system but no true shortstop.
I suppose Bichette would fit a short contract with player options if he doesn't rebound soon.

Mike Green - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#449133) #
If Bichette has a left fascia strain and isn't hitting, why wouldn't you put him on the IL?  And then put him on a rehab stint after? 

You're not getting much for him in a trade right now, and he's not helping you win.  And if his poor performance results from a lingering injury, he just has to get better and then start performing.  Then he will help the team start to win, and have value such that the club can get a fair return for him if that makes sense.  That  would be a win-win for him and the club. 

This club's management of lingering injuries is annoying.  Players simply have to understand that none of them are helping the club when they "gut it out" and perform at 60 or 70% of capacity or less.  It happened with Turner earlier this year, and has been a long-running feature of the club. 
scottt - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#449134) #
I think he means he's getting calls about Guerrero, Bichette and others.
You have to read between the lines with Atkins.

If the Dodgers are calling, I'd listen but hang up when they mention Gavin Lux.

scottt - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#449135) #
I don't think that impacts his swing much.
Mike Green - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#449136) #
The fascia strain doesn't have to much impact on his swing to affect his batting performance.  It can be as simple as significant pain affecting focus, and this is sometimes the case with strains of the fascia.
Glevin - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#449137) #
Absolute Bizarre line in Ben Nicholson-Smith's otherwise fine article about Jays drafting.

"Parker had already established a method that had worked for him while overseeing three drafts in Toronto and selecting the likes of Danny Jansen, Jordan Romano and Kendall Graveman. Maybe that would have earned him leeway elsewhere, yet the Blue Jays had a different vision."

When parker was fired, Graveman was in the majors as a backend starter, Danny Jansen was struggling in A Ball and Romano was just an arm at A ball. Neither were in the Jays top-20 prospects lists. Why would having those guys make any organization give Parker leeway? Doesn't make any sense and is ahistorical.

2014 was maybe the worst draft the Jays have ever had given they had 4 picks in the top 83, 3 top-50 picks, and 2 of tghe top 11. Hoffman, Pentacost, Reid-Foley, and Nick Wells. Adding to those guys, here are all the players picked in top-100 picks by Parker. Bickford (unsigned), Hollon, Murphy, Harris, Singer, Maese, Zeuch, Woodman, Bichette. That's 12 top-100 picks and one star and one other major leaguer.

Farell has generally drafted decently I think except for the 2022 draft which was a mess. Lots of fairly high picks and Jays went High school pitcher in first round and then tons of guys none of whom look like anything. 2020 got Martin and Frasso in 5 rounds. 2021 got Hoglund and Tiedemann. 2023 got Nimmala and maybe a couple of other guys who might be interesting.
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#449138) #
It's nice to see more balance in divisional quality in the AL this year. The Twins are playing to their capabilities, the Royals have improved immensely, and even the Tigers have held their own and could be in position to make a playoff push come July 31st.

As MG alluded to, with the All-Star break coming up, yesterday seemed like the time to put Bo on the DL and let him have the weekend and the entire all star break to rest the body. I suspect that's a two way street however, and with Bo's cryptic comments in recent days, you wonder if he's at odds with how the team wants to treat his injury, among other things.

Honestly, if Bichette is that unhappy, it is incumbent on the team to trade him. It can certainly get worse, in terms of trade value. He has looked listless this year, both with his play and his body language. The team appears to play better without him. I'm not in the clubhouse, I don't have inside information, but something just appears off. When healthy and motivated, Bo is a fine player. This season to me, has been a revelation of his character, however, and what has been revealed is pretty undesirable, IMO.

Ryan Day - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#449139) #
Bo's window to heat up & look desirable to a contender is getting smaller & smaller. While we've all believed it was only a matter of time before he went on one of his hot streaks, he's just gotten worse - possibly affected by injury? He's probably less valuable right now than any point in his career.

Shut him down until he's 100%, and use the rehab assignment to start him at another position. "Like Bo, we all want to win, and the team will win more games with his bat at another position."

If his offence bounces back, he'll be a desirable trade commodity in the offseason.
Glevin - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#449140) #
"He has looked listless this year, both with his play and his body language. The team appears to play better without him. I'm not in the clubhouse,"

Right now, it feels like he's the Jays 4th best option at SS with IKF, Jimenez, and Clement all playing better. If someone is willing to give you value, then absolutely you move him. I want to see Jimenez and Horwitz and Schneider playing pretty much every day rest of the year.
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#449141) #
I relayed a story a month or so ago about seeing Bo's horrible baserunning and lack of effort up close in Detroit. It truly stunk, despite a couple comments here (from people not sitting thirty feet away as I was, mind you), attempting to defend the indefensible.

Like I remember Carlos Delgado making such a bone headed baserunning error in Tampa Bay that it made Buck Martinez throw his hat and scream from the dugout in front of the entire team and the TV cameras. I remember Carlos making comments critical of the front office.But Carlos Delgado was in the middle of another great season in hall of fame career.

In my view, Bo has not earned the the type of respect and treatment that he apparently believes he's entitled to. And if this is the case, if the Jays trade him, I don't think they'll be losing as much as what many believe.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#449142) #
I listened to Ben's podcast yesterday and this line was never stated. In fact he said that Parker did well with the 2016 draft and then parted ways with the Jays due to a new "process" being implemented...he went on to explain how the results have gotten worse under Farrell but his barometer is WAR so Parker's WAR from that one draft has outpaced every draft since.
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#449143) #
If you are trying to do the right thing for the franchise, the best course of action is to get rid of players who are mentally checked out from the team. Those obsessed with finding "value" should look no further than the added (huge) benefit of no longer having a regular around who doesn't want to be there. Again, mostly speculation on my part, just my two cents.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#449144) #
Are we really turning on Bo Bichette for saying he wants to win? Isn’t that what we want too?
Glevin - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#449145) #
"I listened to Ben's podcast yesterday and this line was never stated. In fact he said that Parker did well with the 2016 draft and then parted ways with the Jays due to a new "process" being implemented...he went on to explain how the results have gotten worse under Farrell but his barometer is WAR so Parker's WAR from that one draft has outpaced every draft since."

That's very silly because the closer you are to drafts, the less WAR you'll have simply because players take a long time to make the majors. Look at 2020. Austin Martin has just started his career and Nick Frasso hasn't made majors yet. 2021 draft. Hoglund and Tiedemann haven't started their careers yet, 2023, Nimmala is 18. etc...Not all these guys will produce a lot of value but there's going to be a lot more WAR coming out of Farrell's drafts and none out of Parker's. It's very hard to look at Parker's drafts and Farrell's drafts and conclude Parker's were better.
Mike Green - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#449146) #
Personally, I'd be happy to see an infield of IKF, Jimenez, Schneider and Horwitz, with VGJ DHing for the rest of the year.  Bichette can get work in left-field on the rehab assignment.  I know others believe that VGJ has another gear, and that moving him off first base will decrease the likelihood that he reaches that gear.  I'm not saying that this is wrong.  I just think that he's a somewhat lesser player than Horwitz, taking all things into account, who seems to be consistently reaching that other gear.    And I don't agree with those that think that Horwitz is cut out to be a second baseman.  The quickness and athleticism necessary for that position just aren't there and that is more important than height at first base.  He's an excellent receiver.  And Schneider is much better, in my opinion, than Horwitz at second base.  It's not really surprising that a player pegged as a third baseman throughout his minor league career (but who doesn't have a great arm) would make a better transition to second base than a player pegged as a first baseman. 

The Curse of the Bambino comparisons for a VGJ trade are, I assume, in jest.  Ruth in 1919 with the Red Sox was easily the best player in the game at age 24.  That was the last deadball season, and he played only 130 games (he was still pitching that year).  Nonetheless, he led the major leagues with 29 home runs, more than most teams in the AL; the player with the second most home runs was Gavvy Cravath with 12. 

scottt - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#449147) #
WAR is worthless to evaluate recent drafts.
Parker wasn't great. Steve Sanders was worse.
It's too early to rate Farrell.

When Parker was fired, his track record was Conner Greene, Rowdy Tellez, Max Pentecost, Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris and Justin Maese. Also traded were Jeff Hoffman, Kendal Graveman, Matt Boyd, Nick Wells, Jake Brentz and Sean Ratcliffe. Parker took T. J. Zeuch first in 2016. Expectations on Bichette and Biggio were low.

After release, Parker spent 4 years as an international crosschecker and has been the international scouting director for the Dodgers.

scottt - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#449148) #
We're turning on Bichette from not producing and if he plays like this for a team that's trying to win, he will get booed.
Ryan Day - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#449149) #
Bo's comments are actually kind of non-committal, and not nearly as bad as they sound:

It sounds like the interviewer is trying to get some sort of comment about the state of the city itself, and not the team, and Bo deflects to talking about the team being able to sign good players. Which is true to the extent they've been players in the FA market, less so about getting results with them.
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#449150) #
"This club's management of lingering injuries is annoying"
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#449151) #
I'm not caught up in the Twitter world kerfuffle over his comments, just to be clear. I haven't read any other take of them or spent any time on that platform. I saw the interview Ryan just linked, and I agree, it was largely non-committal (which can also be telling in some cases....he never mentioned his own team) and if anything, it was a fishing expedition by the interviewer to try and generate something.

I'm basing my opinion on Bo's performance and his body language and attitude this season. From where I sit, it's not about him "wanting to win", it's about poor play and from what I witnessed in person, poor effort and focus.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#449152) #
Here is the deal with Bo:

He is elite, young and cocky

He is playing way below norms due to injury or mental relating to public feudindg between his father and brother

He likely will test the market and therefore should be traded

Do your best to trade him at his peak, whenever you think that will be.

Peak trade value should be Bo Bichette to LAD for example, for Landon Knack and River Ryan (two SP to plug into rotation next year)

* Far more important is this FO pooping or getting off the potter with Vlad. Either sign him or trade him
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#449153) #
I guess the general rule about drafting is you hope to get one good player from each draft, all things being equal.

I don't know if that's actually accurate or not but it seems to be a rule of thumb.

And I guess on top of that you want at least 2-3 of those 8 to be more like star type players. A superstar or 2 would be nice but maybe not necessary to still have a good system....but it sure would help.

Through 8 drafts, it looks like 8 legit possibilities of legit MLB regulars:

Bichette - legit star level player

Manoah - looked like a star, came back looking like he could be a regular again, now injured

Biggio - seems to be done already, debatable whether he was a regular

Schneider - looks promising as a regular, likely not a star, some risk of not staying a regular

Horwitz - looks promising as a regular, likely not a star, some risk of not staying a regular

Barger - good not great prospect, but big upside with big risk, already 24 so time is ticking

Tiedemann - great prospect, but injuries may stop him

Niemela - great prospect, but only 18 and a high upside / high risk profile

Admittedly there are other prospects who could break through a la Horwitz and Schneider, but it's hard to see them at this point.

It's gonna be tough sledding to get to 8 solid regulars from the first 8 drafts i think. Hopefully some of the star upside breaks through to make up the difference.

uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#449154) #
I'm never a fan of harping too much about character unless it's really blatant. Nobody's perfect, and all kinds of characters win champsionships.

I think Bo and Vlad grade pretty dang well in the character department anyways. They might have some flaws but overall you can't ask for much better from two young star talents like that.

I think attacking players' character is usually just a distraction from a player or a team just not being good enough.
Kelekin - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#449155) #
This is why I maintain the fact that, unfortunately, unlike most sports, it takes 10 years to really assess the end outcome of a draft. Baseball is so far from linear; high school prospects can take 6-8 years to make the show, college players 3-4, and of course, add in the lost time due to COVID.

There are a number of players that could become MLB regulars, it's just too early to know. Kloffenstein, Barger. Martin (awful defense but his hit tool and eye will get him an MLB job), Frasso (hit AAA before injury), Hoglund (finally looking healthy after a lengthy return from injury), Kasevich, Roden.

However, where the Jays especially lack, is not getting waves of players from IFA. Especially arms. Some of our closest competitors manage to consistently get exciting arms coming up through their system through IFA, and how many of the MLB superstar hitters were international signings? The fact we have lagged behind here has been disappointing, especially considering just how long Tinnish and co have been there.
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#449156) #
I think it's a big stretch to think any of those names are likely to be quality mlb regulars. I guess one or two might pop just because but those are all longshots imo.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#449157) #
Ugly you are missing a few guys:

Nate Pearson, Nick Frasso
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#449158) #
Guardians Draft Picks since same period showing ahat a top FO drafts like:

Shane Bieber
Nolan Jones
Spencer Steer
Tyler Freeman
Ernie Clement
James Karinchak
Spencer Strider
Bo Naylor
Steven Kwan
Daniel Schneeman
Spencer Schwellenbach
Zack Gelof
Matt Waldron
Logan Allen
Gavin Williams
Tanner Bibee
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#449159) #
Pearson is a 27yr old struggling in a middle relief role.

Frasso has been a middling pitcher at AA and AAA, while a bit old for each level.

I don't think i'm missing them.
Mike Green - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#449164) #
Here's Kwan's scouting report from It's a useful reminder about the relative importance of power in the suite of skills of a prospect. Spoiler: a left-fier leadoff type with excellent defence, contact ability and plate discipline, and speed does not require very much power to be effective.,a%20fringy%20but%20playable%20arm.
Mike Green - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#449166) #
Ack. "left-fielder leadoff type"- some letters in the middle there just flew away into the ether. 
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#449167) #
"Pearson is a 27yr old struggling in a middle relief role.

Frasso has been a middling pitcher at AA and AAA, while a bit old for each level.

I don't think i'm missing them."

Funny because you can say the same thing about Manoah and Bichette
ISLAND BOY - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#449170) #
dalimon- The Guardians never drafted Spencer Strider. Atlanta picked him in the 4th round of the 2020 amateur draft.
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#449171) #
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#449178) #
Island - Cleveland actually drafted Spencer as a high schooler in 2017 before Atlanta drafted him again as a college pitcher. There are several players that Cleveland drafted but could not sign who were then drafted again later by another team.
Ducey - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#449181) #
Yeah, picking a guy committed to college in the 35th round as a flyer out of high school doesn't count towards establishing anyone's credibility - unless they sign.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#449182) #
Ok duly noted.
Michael - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#449183) #
Here's Jim riley from the Bleacher Report's proposed trade of Bo to the Dodgers:

Dodgers receive: shortstop Bo Bichette
Blue Jays receive: second baseman Gavin Lux, right-handed pitcher River Ryan, right-handed pitcher Landon Knack and third baseman Jake Gelof

That is the Dodgers 4, 12, and 22 prospect plus youngish marginal MLB player Lux.

Do people want to pull the trigger on that move?
ISLAND BOY - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#449184) #
Ah, I didn't look far enough back on Cleveland's past drafts. My mistake.
Glevin - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#449186) #
Wouldn't do that trade. Don't want Lux. Don't think he's a good major leaguer. He's also a 2Bman where the Jays now have Horwitz, Schenider, and Jimenez who can all play there so really doesn't make sense. Give me Vargas as LF/DH instead. Also, would want better prospects. I am fine with close to majors or far away but Knack really strikes me as a long-reliever type. The deal ends up with Ryan and then kind of nothing IMO. I'd do something like Vargas, Ryan, Cartaya (not great numbers but great pedigree and only 22 in AAA and Dodgers have Smith and Rushing and Jays probably need to replace Jansen) and then some A-ball guy like Gelof.
uglyone - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#449187) #
That trade seems to be all about what you think about River Ryan. Fairly big tools but already 25 and not lighting the world on fire.

Other than that it's just filler - a couple of marginal mlbers who might be serviceable in depth starting roles or maybe just bench/bullpen roles. And then what looks like a non prospect just thrown in to try and beef up the look of the package.

On paper it might be reasonable bjt again that depends on what you think of Ryan. Trading Bo without getting even one big-upside piece back would be a fail imo.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#449190) #
If they added a top 100 prospect like Rushing or De Paula and removed Lux and one of Landon Knack or River Ryan I would do the trade.

Soto was traded for Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Michael King and Higashioka and the NYY had to take on Grisham.

Lesser return for more service from Bo would be Bo for Rushing and Ryan and that is a yes for me. That would be selling low on Bo but worth it to me.
mathesond - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#449193) #
Ray Ratto with a typically great column. Love it when he opts to focus on baseball (although his column about visiting Newfoundland was brilliant)
Spifficus - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#449198) #
Dealing Bo (or Vlad) has to be about getting potential core pieces back, not about gathering up someone else's spare parts. The Jays already have enough averagish 2Bs, so spare me the Lux talk. I'm more into Josue De Paula and Joendry Vargas types, or Ferris and Wrobleski on the mound.
adrianveidt - Friday, July 12 2024 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#449209) #
After what happened over the offseason, I wouldn't want to deal with the Dodgers for fear that it might end up helping them. There are no guarantees that Bichette doesn't all of a sudden start playing great after being traded.
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