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The homestand wraps up with the Guardians in town.

So it was Wednesday evening, and I'd just watched Yariel Rodriguez stumble through the top of the first. The Jays were down 2-0 before they even came to bat for the first time. I sighed, and started flipping channels. Could Tampa Bay extend the Battle of Florida, and give the Leafs a little help? (They could not.) Could the Habs live to fight another day before their inevitable defeat? (They could not.) Could those old Warriors dispatch the Rockets and possibly give us one last Steph-LeBron showdown? (They could not, and an extremely tall Frenchman made the entire question moot a couple of hours later.)

I checked in on the Jays, who were now trailing 4-0. Chad Green entered the game and gave up his customary home run. So now it was 6-0. I repaired to the back yard to smoke a pipe and listen to some tunes. And lo, there was a text from Eephus. He was at work and wondered how the Jays were doing. "Have a guess" I replied. (He went with "Down 4-1," which was reasonably close.)

And then... and then... he sends this:

Are we at a point where we can compare April to the very worst offensive months in team history?

The wicked, wicked boy. He knows me well. How could I possibly resist pursuing such a dismal line of inquiry? No chance whatsoever, and for a brief moment I grimly contemplated the heavy lifting that would be required, poring through the monthly records for 49 seasons. And then - I remembered! I've done this already!

Well, not all of it. But certainly up to 2015, as I had previously embarked on a quest to determine whether August 2015 was the most dominant month in franchise history. (Long story short - you bet it was.) I don't delete those old spreadsheets - experience has taught me I may need them again some day. It only took about ten minutes to bring this one up to date, and I can now respond to this enquiry with facts and numbers and - wait for it - a Data Table.

It was not the worst offensive month in franchise history. Not quite. But it was really, really bad.

Let's eliminate all the partial months, the handful of games played in March or October. I suppose I could attach them to their neighbouring month, but that's a messy procedure and much more work than I feel like doing. The Blue Jays played 25 games this April. That's enough! It's a normal month. I don't need the five they played in March, which is well on its way to becoming a Baseball Month of its own. And in fact, the schedule pages on bb-ref do treat March and October as separate months, and that's where I pulled the data. (The problems come later, because when it comes to monthly splits - for players, teams, and leagues - bb-ref does attach March to April and October to September. A little consistency, if you don't mind!)

So for now I'm setting the bar at 15 games to constitute a month. This also eliminates June 1981 and August 1994, the two partial months created when the players went on strike. And we're left with 280 months of Blue Jays baseball. And the worst offensive performance came way back in the expansion days, and dear reader, you may want to Avert Your Eyes. The 1978 Blue Jays scored a pitiful 62 runs in 25 September games - that's 2.48 Runs Per Game - while posting a grisly 4-21 record to conclude - almost - their second season. Just as August 2015 was the only time in franchise history that the team scored twice as many as they allowed (170 to 83), September 1978 was the one time the team allowed twice as many as they scored (126 to 62). I'm sure no one noticed - after all, the Yankees and Red Sox were engaged in one of the most famous and memorable pennant races of all time while this was going on. 

It's one of those masterpieces that needs some time and distance to truly be understood. How did such a thing happen?

Well, for starters, the Jays had traded away their best hitter in mid-August. That was their 38 year old DH, Rico Carty. We can't blame them for that. An old DH, and especially one with the knees of a senior citizen, is of little use to a team about to lose 100 games. If someone else wants him - and the Oakland A's did - you take whatever you can get. Which turned out to be a pitching prospect (Phil Huffman) and the old, slow DH that Carty would replace in the Oakland lineup (Willie Horton.)

So that didn't help. But it was mostly a case of the regular lineup being really, really bad.  This is the September batting line for everyone who appeared in the starting lineup for the 1978 Blue Jays during those awful 25 games. You'll notice, if you're really looking closely, that McKay and Gomez appeared in 26 games. That's bb-ref including October games in their September splits. The 1978 Jays played one game in October. Of course, they lost. Luis Tiant tossed a two-hit shutout. No Blue Jay even made it as far as second base. It was an important game, by the way. Boston needed the win along with a New York loss to Cleveland to force a playoff for the AL East title. These things came to pass, and there was indeed a playoff. You've probably heard about it. I may even write a Game Story about it some day, because it was a doozy.

But back to our main subject, and in  the immortal words of Tim the Enchanter, if ye be not Men of Valour, go no further. Consider yourselves warned. Because it's time to step out on the Bridge of Death over the Gorge of Eternal Peril and gaze deep, deep into the abyss.

Player           G    PA    AB    R    H    2B   3B   HR  RBI   SB   CS   BB   SO    BAVG     OBP     SLG    OPS
                                                                    
Rick Bosetti    25   111   106    6    22    4    1    1    5    1    0    4   18    .208    .243    .293    .536
Dave McKay    26    95    89   10    20    3    1    2    4    0    1    6   12    .225    .274    .348    .622
Bob Bailor    23    92    84   10    19    4    3    0    4    0    0    5    3    .226    .294    .345    .639
John Mayberry   22    80    76    3    13    2    0    1    6    0    0    4    8    .171    .213    .237    .449
Roy Howell    16    69    60    9    15    0    0    3    4    0    0    8    6    .250    .338    .400    .738
Otto Velez    18    68    58    4    13    2    1    2    5    1    0    9   10    .224    .324    .397    .720
Alvis Woods    19    68    65    3    12    2    1    0    1    1    1    3    6    .185    .221    .246    .467
Luis Gomez    26    67    62    1    12    1    0    0    6    0    1    2    4    .194    .219    .210    .429
Willie Horton   16    56    54    5    10    3    0    2    9    0    0    2   19    .185    .214    .352    .566
Alan Ashby    15    51    44    2     6    3    0    0    2    1    0    7   5    .136    .255    .205    .459
Rick Cerone    11    41    39    2    7    1    0    1    5    0    0    1    5    .180    .200    .282    .482
Willie Upshaw   11    34    31    1    7    0    0    0    3    1    0    3    2    .226    .294    .226    .520
Doug Ault    10    28    24    2    7    0    0    2    3    0    0    4    2    .292    .393    .542    .935
Butch Alberts    6    18    18    1    5    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    2    .278    .278    .333    .611
Sam Ewing    10    14    12    2    2    0    0    1    2    0    0    1    3    .167    .214    .417    .631
Tim Johnson    15     6    6    0    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    .167    .167    .167    .333


This wasn't 1968 or anything like that. It was a normal enough year. The American League batted .261 that year. The league OnBase was .326, the league Slugging was .385.

In just one other month in team history have the Blue Jays failed to average a measly 3 runs per game. That was also back in the Bad Old Days - it was September 1981, and I was expecting to see that 1981 squad turn up at some point, as I have always regarded it as the most putrid lineup in team history. The 1981 team managed to go 11-15 that September anyway, mostly because Dave Stieb started seven games and went 4-1, 2.09 (he lost a 1-0 game, because that was his life back then.)

So those two teams, okay. But... through five innings on Wednesday, the 2025 Blue Jays had scored 74 runs in their 25 April games. You can do the math - had Lucas Giolito and the Red Sox bullpen been able to hold on for another 12 outs, we would have had a third Blue Jay team achieving this extremely dubious feat. The sudden homer barrage spared them that distinction, but it wasn't enough to get them out of the Bottom 10. Which I will now reverse, and present as the Top 10 Months of Blue Jays Offensive Futility.

Month        Year    GP    W    L     RS    R/G
                        
September    1978    25    4    21    62    2.48
September    1981    26   11    15    75    2.88
June    1979    30   12    18    90    3.00
June    2010    26    9    17    80    3.08
September    1977    30    8    22    93    3.10

August    2012    28    9    19    89    3.18
August    1981    19    9    10    61    3.21
April    2025    25   11    14    81    3.24
May    1979    28    5    23    91    3.25
August    2014    26    9    17    86    3.31

None of these teams were bound for glory. Six of the ten teams are from the early expansion era, before Bobby Cox came to town, so you can depend on them being awful. But not all of the ten were terrible teams, and those other three - 2010, 2012, 2014 -  weren't even terrible hitting teams. They all ended up scoring about as many runs as the average AL team. If not more. The 2010 club finished up at 85-77 in Cito Gaston's last ride around the park. That team actually had a pretty good offence, based on the tested and true formula of hitting lots and lots of home runs. Lots of home runs. The 2010 Blue Jays hit 257 of them, which led the major leagues, the minor leagues, and probably most fantasy leagues by a considerable margin. Jose Bautista was driving that bus, with a team record 54. Bautista's one slump that season (.179/.324/.369) happened to come in June, and the offense shrivelled up and died without him. It wasn't a great offense - that team really didn't do anything besides hitting home runs, but they hit enough of them to be a little above league average in scoring runs. There just weren't enough people on base. They had just  one player who was significantly above average in that part of the game, and that was.... yup, it was the same guy suffering through that June slump.

Something similar happened in 2012. That team was puttering along at .500 (45-45) when Bautista injured his hand (checking his swing against the Yankees, if I remember rightly.) He played in just two more games the rest of the way. But even that team scored 677 runs (league average was 688.)

The 2014 team looked for a while to be a contender. They were 60-50 when the trading deadline came and went at the end of July, and were just a game and a half back of the first place Orioles. But Edwin Encarnacion was in the middle of a six week absence with a quad injury and the team - to the surprise of many, especially in the clubhouse - didn't make any upgrades at the deadline.  They promptly stopped hitting, and stopped pitching and fielding while they were at it. After losing 16 of their next 22 games, they were 10 games back of the division lead by the time September came along. Even so, August notwithstanding, this was actually a good offensive team. They would end up scoring 723 runs, and only three AL teams scored more often. They just didn't score any in August.

So that's my somewhat surprising takeaway from all of this. Of the ten worst hitting months in franchise history, six came from the early expansion days. But the others were all the work of decent (or better) lineups simply having a random bad month. 

So let us hope this is what we will tell our grandchildren about April 2025. Not that I have any, I'm much too young and pretty.

Oh, right. Cleveland. Well, I got matchups!

Fri 2 May - Allen (1-2, 4.21) vs Bassitt (2-2, 2.62)
Sat 3 May - Williams (2-2, 5.14) vs Gausman (2-3, 4.50)
Sun 4 May - Bibee (2-2, 4.36) vs Francis (2-4, 5.28)
Cleveland at Toronto, May 2-4 | 119 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#459546) #
Some good signs of life in Kirk's bat lately. The Jays face a lefty tonight, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they DH Kirk and give Varsho a rest.

All 10 runs the Jays scored outside extra innings the last two games came via the HR.

Rodriguez isn't helping much out of the bullpen. Is it time to send him down and see if he can contribute as a starter?
Nigel - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#459551) #
I don't know what the right answer is with Rodriguez. I don't think he's got a way to get major league hitters out consistently as a starter (his slider and splitter are just way to inconsistent). To me, the best way to use him is to let him throw as hard as he can for an inning or so as a reliever - pure velocity may be his best path. I agree though that if you want to use him as a starter he has to go to AAA and work on his secondaries and let him build up some innings.
Kelekin - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#459555) #
Whether Yariel is a starter or reliever, he'd be best served getting regular innings, and the best place to do that right now is AAA.
Cracka - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#459556) #
Rodriguez signed a very unique contract. He can only be sent to the minors with his permission. He has significant incentives for reaching certain innings thresholds each season: $100k EACH for 130, 140, 150, 160, and 170. He also has incentives to finish games: $50k each for 30, 40, 50, and $100k for 60. I don't know what to make of all of this... he'd probably agree to go to Buffalo briefly to get stretched back out, but the team hasn't seemed inclined to use him as a true starter despite several opportunities. He's only thrown 30+ pitches once (opening day), so he's not even really a long reliever at this point. At this point, he's a very expensive low-leverage arm...

Separately, I'm wondering if Michael Stefanic is going to get a shot soon. He's now in his 3rd year of being above .450 OBP in AAA. We need another infielder and another RH bat, and Alan Roden doesn't really have a role right now. There wasn't really a spot for him on the 40-man roster until yesterday, but Erik Swanson had a setback and now is a candidate for the 60-day IL. We're facing LH starters in 3 of the next 6 games... maybe now is the time to give him a shot?
Waveburner - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#459557) #
I think that is a good idea Cracka, Stefanic seems worth a shot and Roden has just been awful.
His actual line is terrible at .181/.256/.264 but even more concerning is that his contact quality is so awful than his expected stats are even worse than his actual line. He is just utterly overmatched right now and the team has too many outfielders.
I like Roden long term, but he is not showing any signs of being a Major League hitter.
John Northey - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#459558) #
Agreed Cracka - Roden needs to play in AAA and get hot before getting to continue his rookie year imo (a 50 OPS+ just doesn't cut it over 82 PA). Might as well leave Barger out there in RF with that killer arm vs LHP, 3B when a RHP is on the mound. See if his bat can get going (44 OPS+ right now). Call up Stefanic to be the backup IF and move forward. My gut says the Jays keep it as is for a bit longer - get Roden up to 100 PA before sending him down. It is strange how little anyone complains about Roden - that is an ugly batting line 181/256/264 from a corner OF is unacceptable.

Rodriguez and Schneider might be an attractive combo for a team out of it that thinks they can unleash the potential in them (assuming the Jays eat some of Yariel's contract). Not sure who they could trade for that would be useful (3B or corner OF) but there is bound to be someone out there - ideally on the last year or two of their deal. Given how cheap and bad the ChiSox are Andrew Benintendi might be available (112 OPS+ this year, 104 lifetime, was a quality fielding LF at one time, 20 HR last year, owed $17.1 this year, $17.1 next, $15.1 in 2027, currently in his age 30 season). The options are very limited, most decent players on bad teams are young and/or controllable for years so they won't trade those guys.
mathesond - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#459559) #
I found it amusing (in the 'baseball is amusing' kind of way), that in September '78, Roy Howell had all of 4 RBI, when the previous September he had 10 RBI in one game (against the eventual WS champion Yankees, no less). And he had 3 HR to help him get to 4 RBI.
SK in NJ - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#459560) #
I agree with letting Rodriguez throw as hard as possible for one inning and hope for the best. If he turns into even an above average reliever, then it's not terrible value at $6M a year, though obviously not someone you'd want to be paying that type of money based on current performance.

Barger starting in RF tonight against a LHP. I'm glad the team is giving him a real shot. He passes the eye test, and the underlying numbers are very strong as well. Whether he's an actual breakout candidate remains to be seen, but you can't fake exit velocity and bat speed, plus he hasn't been chasing as much this time around. I like him more than Roden at this point.
Marc Hulet - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#459561) #
Now is the time to DFA Davis Schneider. He's not hitting at all in AAA so no one is likely to claim him outside of maybe Pittsburgh so he stays in the system and you have room on the 40-man for Stefanic.
Kelekin - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#459562) #
11 outfielders on the 40-Man is objectively hilarious.
jerjapan - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#459563) #
Great read Magpie! 

I could see Schneider getting the DFA.  Berroa is another option, but he seems to have more utility as a bench piece. 

Y-Rod was a high leverage reliever in Japan, no?  If they feel those secondary pitches aren't working with big league hitters, I like just leaving him in the pen, see if he can get a good run going.  Too soon to see him as a sunk cost. 

Little has to be seen as a successful reclamation project for the FO, and we have had far too few of those.  The arms they've been cycling through as the 8th guy this year have been overwhelmingly awful.  I know not to expect much, but yeesh. 

Everyone is talking up Barger's approach - the radio guys as well as TV.  He is definitely turning heads.  I was pleasantly surprised by his D last night at 3rd. 

Roden, on the other hand ... consensus remains high on the kid, but he's struggling.  With so many OFers, swapping him out for Stefanic would make sense. 
Nigel - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#459564) #
That was a great read Magpie. As someone who sat in the LF bleachers in the old Ex on at least a couple of nights in September 1978 I can confirm those were bleak days indeed. The excitement and newness of the expansion year had worn off and the reality of sucking for a while had begun to sink in. Plus, (and I tried to find the exact game without luck) Alvis Woods put on one of the single worst outfielder fielding exhibits I have ever witnessed on one of those nights (misplayed balls, throwing to the wrong base, etc.). I ended 1978 with my love of the game highly damaged.
92-93 - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#459566) #
Tonight's game features the 23rd (CLE) best offense vs. the 26th. The Indians are 18-13 with a 13-18 Pythag.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#459567) #
I’m glad my prediction in Spring Trianing that people should calm down about Alan Roden and that he’s Kevin Barker (no reason for that name, I just listen to his show) came true.

For the trillionth bleeping time, stop reading so much into Spring performance.
soupman - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#459568) #
Roden struggled at AA, but hit well at all the other levels until now. Is that because he was facing the stereotypically better velocity you see in AA? I haven't watched enough actual games, but from what I've seen that seems to be an issue for him.
Kelekin - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#459569) #
Roden struggled at AA because they tried to completely change his mechanics and it took him a while to adjust.

He's not the first to struggle to adapt to the ML level. I strongly believe he has what it takes to be a major league bat.
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#459570) #
Is Santander can suck epic ass for 100pa so can a rookie.
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#459572) #
Interesting to see Barger getting a start against a lefty. Although the only configuration to get another right-handed bat into the lineup would be to go Straw/Springer/Santander in the outfield, move Kirk to DH and put Heineman behind the plate, so perhaps Barger's start isn't indicative of anything other than a desire to give Varsho a day off and a lack of right-handed options.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#459573) #
Well with Allen getting strike calls a foot off the plate down, away and in, it’s a wonder he’s not pitching a perfect game. Just brutal, brutal stuff.
greenfrog - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#459574) #
What an incredible start to the season for Springer. Credit to uglyone, who was probably the leading “Springer could still be good” voice in the off-season.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#459575) #
Barger’s leg kick just makes his swing so unbalanced and herky jerky. Count me completely unimpressed.
lexomatic - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#459576) #
Our old friend Santana doing damage again.
uglyone - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#459577) #
it's painful to watch the kids struggle and maybe that makes Lukes patient controlled approach look all the better.

I'm a Lukes fan. Lacks a lot of pop, and I don't know if he can hit lefties, but he's a useful player imo.
SK in NJ - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#459578) #
Lukes surprisingly projects pretty well for a 4th outfielder. Would have no issues if he stayed on with Roden going down. The issue is they really need two of the Buffalo guys to pan out, preferably one who can play 3B and the other in the OF. Have to hope Barger’s underlying numbers eventually turn into actual numbers. That would certainly help.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#459579) #
Cheer up, chums! The team has won 3 in a row!
John Northey - Friday, May 02 2025 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#459580) #
Right now the Jays are fun to watch - late inning charges, amazing defense at times, key players coming back. Enjoyed watching Scherzer on the bench acting like every pitch was a coin flip as to ball or strike. If the ump had seen that he'd have been kicked out quickly I suspect. Good to see Francis and Lucas (I think) beside him during the game.

Leaders - Little leads the majors in games pitched at 17 in 32 games, Hoffman leads the AL in games finished at 13 (a NL'er has 14. For a surprise, Chad Green is tied for 4th in caught stealing with 3 despite being a reliever.

Just fun to look at that stuff sometimes. Super early so it just says the Jays are really counting on Hoffman and Little right now. Gotta say Fluharty is really earning the teams trust right now too though. Once Sandlin is back it'll be a strong big 6 in the pen and if Yariel can just stop nibbling around a big 7, leaving just the mop up role as a 'oh crap' slot. Drastic improvement from 2024. Critical with the 5 hole being a black hole right now, and Francis becoming a pumpkin again.
Glevin - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#459584) #
I get playing Barger at 3B but giving him a run in RF is crazy to me. Roden and Lukes both were significantly better in minors. Roden seems like he needs some time in minors to remember how to hit ball hard again. Atkins says Jays are about to sign a free agent or two. Spencer Turnbull is a rumour and I'd approve of that for sure.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#459585) #
Good to see Francis and Lucas (I think) beside him during the game.

Pretty sure it was Eric Lauer hanging with Scherzer, who was the bulk guy in Wed's 1st comeback 7-6 win against Boston. Easton Lucas started for Buffalo in Iowa on Thursday.

The broadcast has mentioned that Lauer is temporarily the 5th starter because the front office and coaches don't want the old guys in a 4-man rotation skipping extra off days.

Glevin - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#459586) #
And like that Jays sign Turnbull. Like the signing. Think he's a legitimate swingman 5th starter type.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#459587) #
There was lots of unsubstantiated innuendo that there was a non-public reason why Turnbull was not being signed. At least in the comments in articles dating back a month ago.

Talk of him being a selfish player, having a big ego, demanding to be a starter, wanting a major league deal, not being good in the clubhouse, etc.

None of it substantiated of course, but something to keep in mind. He was very good in his 1st 6 starts for CIN last year, then got moved to the bullpen for unclear reasons, while still performing well. He made one final spot start, then missed the rest of the year with a lat injury.

I like the move, but there is a little bit of intrigue there why he is still available.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#459588) #
Was going by memory. Turnbull was with PHI last year, not CIN.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#459589) #
Nice move. He pitches well as a starter but poorly as a reliever last year. Now they need to figure out how to get Vlad and Santander going and then add a bat at the deadline.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#459590) #
Blue Jays have Max Scherzer, leading the pitching side. There won't be any shenanigans in play while he's here. Probably how the Jays view it as well.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#459591) #
Turnbull's first 6 starts went pretty well last year:

32.1 innings, 17 hits, 3 HR, 10 BB, 34 Ks.

Kind of strange that the Phillies moved him to the pen in May, where he didn't perform as well with an ERA over 4.

The Phils must've been 6 deep with SP coming into May last year.

Other than the walks being a little high, not much reason for demotion was apparent by the statline.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#459592) #
The Turnbull signing does not move the needle... I don't see an improvement over Lauer, who isnt likely to stick around when he's DFA'd... ao this move doesn’t help the depth either.

Turnbull always looked like someone that would be a better reliever, despite last year's SSS.

He hasn't thrown more than 57 innings since 2019 and hasn't pitched in almost a year.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#459595) #
The Jays have also signed Jose Urena to a major league deal per Heyman.

Desperate times...
jerjapan - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#459596) #
Turnbull went 3 and 17 in 2019. That’s crazy.

Urena? That’s an indictment of the off-season depth building.
Eephus - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#459597) #
One thinks Urena (who hasn't been really any good since well before the pandemic) is around as a fungible rotation placeholder/dart thrown at the wall until Turnbull is built up. Even if Mad Max Scherzer can make it back by June (thumbs crossed), Turnbull may also be serving as insurance in case Bowden Francis' longball problems become untenable (I'd presume/hope Bowden has at least few more starts to sort that out). 

Turnbull seems like an astute pickup to me: low risk-medium reward and clearly better than your internal available options at present, plus his experience as an actual MLB longman can't hurt either. With Urena I think you're rolling the dice and hoping his "veteranness" keeps you in a game for 3-5 innings a few times.    
scottt - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#459599) #
Urena had a 3.80 ERA in Texas last year. Same as Eovaldi, who obviously made many more starts. Swerzer started 9 games in Texas and ended up with a 3.95 ERA.
Urena had an ERA of 5.08 in 9 starts and 2.92 in over 64 innings of relief.

He's mostly a sinker/slider guy, but his splits were OK last year.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#459600) #
MLBTR seems to be reporting that both Turnbull & Urena got major league deals.

Which 2 guys are getting dropped from the 40-man to make room?

Presumably Urena at the very least needs a spot on the 26-man roster as well.
John Northey - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#459601) #
Urena and Turnbull are reasonable buy super-low options who if they work out, great, if not you can dump without a second thought. The final bullpen slot and the 5th rotation slot are messes right now so both land under the 'why not' category. Urena is not very good - 85 ERA+ lifetime, 152 starts, 81 relief games - known as a swing man he might be useful on bad days, but I expect him to be dumped well before the trade deadline. Turnbull might stick as he is normally worth 1-2 WAR a year - the opposite of most of the rotation in that he only gets 50-100 innings a year before his arm collapses. If the Jays can figure out how to keep him healthy and effective he could be a big asset - his 3-17 year he had 2.5 bWAR,2.8 fWAR but hasn't cracked 60 IP in any other season despite being a starter all that time (outside of the Phillies moving him to the pen when he was effective in the rotation). I see Turnbull as a replacement for Francis if Francis can't keep the ball in the park (3.2 HR/9 is unsustainable - he has allowed a league leading 11 HR so far, no combo of 2 pitchers on the Jays have combined for more).
SK in NJ - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#459602) #
The Jays needed to add SP depth. Scherzer is out without any clear indication of when/if he can pitch again, and Francis may end up not being a big league caliber starter. The Jays won't survive 162 with 3 starters and 2 question marks. Whether Turnbull is good or not remains to be seen, but he at least has a chance to be good. That's all you can hope for at this point. Urena best case is a long man which the pen definitely needs. Whether he's any better than Lauer is debatable, but the difference is negligible at best either way.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#459603) #
You have to think a good FO would be preparing a trade of Francis or Rodriguez, one "Buffalo" Blue Jay (Barger, Clement, Schneider) and a prospect to bring in an upgrade at 3B or SP. The Cardinals appear to be a perfect fit with Helsley, Fedde and Arenado. St.Louis is 5 games below .500 already with Helsley a free agent soon and Arenado too expensive (and has no trade). Jays can easily trade for two of those three while offering lots of team controlled players that St.Louis can try to develop. I would think Francis and Rodriguez would be quite appealing as co rollable young arms with upside.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#459604) #
I don't think that package would bring in an average big league player. Schneider has little to no trade value. Clement is a utility guy and Barger would be selling low. Rodriguez is owed too much money.

Francis is probably the best player and better suited to a division that isn't the AL East. Maybe Francis and Barger net you an Ernie Clement kind of player...

Plus there aren't really any teams sitting on a 3B they don't need. Unless maybe you want IKF back?
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#459608) #
We can argue about the relative trade value of our borderline players and prospects but it's probably best to refresh our memories on how they were recently valued:

* Kikuchi for Bloss, Wagner, Loperfido
* Yimi for Clase, Sharp
* Pearson for Pinango, Rivera
* Jansen for Paulino, Coffey, Batista
* IKF for McAdoo
* Turner for Schreck
* Richards for Harry


Some of these guys are off to good starts and some to bad starts. We could argue whether all of these guys were overvalued by the FO. Unlikely that the valuations are too far off from many other FOs tho. And unlikely that valuations have changed drastically either.
Glevin - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#459609) #
Rangers just sent down Jake Burger. Not a great player by any means but can play 3B and has 30 HR power and has had WRC+ over 106 every year majors. He's very flawed but I think a better sort of flawed for the Jays if he came cheap.
92-93 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#459610) #
Great point, uglyone. It really doesn’t cost that much to improve the team around the trade deadline, you just need to hang around .500 to get there. A lot of helpful additions can be made without even discussing your best prospects.

No Ramirez for Cleveland today. Their lineup looks as pathetic as the Jays’ would without Guerrero. Just find a way to slow down Kwan and Santana.

Hoffman and Little are likely down today, and Green and Garcia would be going for the 3rd time in 4 days. The offense really needs to show up today for the team to have a chance at winning.

Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#459611) #
Turnbull went 3 and 17 in 2019. That’s crazy.

Because he actually did a pretty decent job that year. The Tigers scored 0 runs for him 6 times, 1 run 3 times, 2 runs 5 times. Turnbull went 0-12 in those games.
Nigel - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#459612) #
Some really quality ABs again today. They aren’t doing Varsho any favours easing him back into the lineup against this velocity - he doesn’t really have much chance.
92-93 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#459613) #
Hopefully it doesn’t come back to bite them cuz this game feels like it should be 5-0.
Nigel - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#459614) #
Great AB by Luke’s.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#459615) #
Hopefully the Blue Jays can get six innings from Gausman — and maybe tack on another run or two before he exits to give the bullpen some breathing room.
Gerry - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#459617) #
Yesterday Ross Atkins said Jake Bloss was major league ready. Since then the Jays have signed two other free agent pitchers and today Bloss walked three and gave up three hits in the first inning of the Buffalo game.

Maybe he is not quite ready.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#459618) #
Impressive pitching by Gausman. Looks like he’ll be able to go 6 and maybe even 7 innings.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#459620) #
Fluharty up in the pen. Is Gausman done for the day? He looked as strong as ever in the sixth. But he is up to 94 pitches.
mathesond - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#459621) #
If he hadn't had a 50+ pitch inning in his last start, maybe they give him the 7th? But I expect he's done for the day (since I can only get the radio broadcast, I have no idea if he's been given the handshake in the dugout yet).
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#459622) #
Solid inning by Fluharty. Well done.
uglyone - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#459623) #
When I hear "mlb ready" i interpret it as "he can come up whenever his performance dictates it. Not really anything left to learn in the minors at that age."

Not necessarily that the guy deserves to be in the bigs at the moment.
Cracka - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#459624) #
We were one arm short in the bullpen today. No one else left to trust but Yimi in that situation...
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#459625) #
Demoralizing. Helsley looks pretty good right now since Yimi and Hoffman will be gassed by June.
Michael - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#459626) #
I'd have thought about and maybe pulled Yimi before the walk to load the bases, but I definitely would have pulled him after hitting the bases loaded and being at 30 pitches after having pitched 2 of the last 3 days. But maybe they had no one left? but tough usage.
Glevin - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#459627) #
Feels like a rule that if you leave that many guys on, have that bad baserunning, you will lose the game. Jays should have scored like 7 runs already.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#459628) #
Schneider’s last pitch to Naylor (a bad miss to walk the bases loaded) should have clued Schneider in to the fact that Yimi was done.

As 92-93 said, the offensive failures early in the ballgame sabotaged the team.

You could also argue that Gausman should have been allowed to go 7, with Fluharty and Green closing out the eighth and the ninth.
James W - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#459629) #
But also you're in trouble if you can't get out a guy named Schneemann.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#459630) #
Rodriguez is wasted on this roster. 7 million for a long man you can't trust. ..
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#459631) #
Yimi’s last pitch to Naylor I mean.
92-93 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#459632) #
It was an easy pull, Michael. He looked gassed the entire inning.
SK in NJ - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#459633) #
Schneider made some managerial mistakes there (what else is new?) but to sound like a broken record, this one is on the offense. They should have had 5-7 runs by the time the 9th started. Regardless still a winnable game if Schneider knew how to handle a bullpen. Surprisingly after 3 years, he still doesn't.
Nigel - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#459634) #
Fluharty looked so good I would have left him in until he hit a problem. But Garcia was clearly gassed.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#459635) #
The difference between playoffs or not may very well be on managerial mistakes committed.
Magpie - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#459636) #
Hoffman and (apparently) Little not being available complicated things.

I suppose he could have brought in Walker to pitch to Schneeman.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#459637) #
After the walk to Naylor I said, literally out loud, "they have to take Yimi out now." At that point he was at 30 pitches, had looked gassed the entire inning, and was on his 3rd day in the last 4.
 
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#459638) #
Yarbrough pitched 4 innings of one-run ball as the Yankees’ SP today. He’s actually been good after his very early-season poor outing. ERA down to 3.72.

Good thing the Blue Jays don’t need a swingman/long man at the moment.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#459639) #
The difference between playoffs or not may very well be on managerial mistakes committed.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#459641) #
MLBTR: “Corbin Burnes To Miss Next Start With Shoulder Inflammation”

Not good for Arizona to have this happen in month two of a 6-year, $210m player contract.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#459643) #
How does Schneider still have a job? Or Walker for that matter? Not knowing that there's no way Yimi can go past ~20 pitches pitching 3 days out of 4?

I agree with others - could have tried Fluharty going a bit longer.. Or even left Green in another batter or two. This one stinks.
Waveburner - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#459646) #
Brutal loss.

This is definitely on the offense for not scoring more runs with endless opportunties and Schneider for somehow not seeing how gassed Garcia was. But also Atkins for the godawful reliever depth the Jays have now in his 10th season as GM. The Jays are only down 2 relievers to injury right now, Swanson and Sandlin which probably around average in MLB. How can the reliever depth be so bad that they have no one better to turn to when Garcia looks gassed? Yariel Rodrguez continues to be a rather dubious signing, as the team clearly does not trust him at all.
Nigel - Saturday, May 03 2025 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#459647) #
I agree that Rodriguez has zero current role. That needs to be sorted one way or the other notwithstanding how they’ve hamstrung themselves with the contract structure.
Glevin - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#459648) #
The Jays don't have godawful reliever depth. Hoffman, Garcia, Little, Green, and some other guys is absolutely fine. Fangraphs has Jays at 9th in reliver WAR (reliever WAR is usually awful but most metrics will put them in same range I'd think). Jays are 27th in SP WAR and 17th in hitting WAR. Do people think there are teams out there with 5 good closers? The issue Jays have is that they can't score so pretty much every single win requires at least 2/3 best guys so if Jays are competing, their best guys are getting overused. The only break relievers get is when they get blown out. The problem isn't that they don't have a third closer, it's that's they can't score. Today's game is a perfect example. After the leadoff HR, Jays had 12 baserunners in 4 innings including 2 2bs and scored 1 run. They averaged 3 baserunners an inning for 4 innings and scored 1 run. If they score 4 or 5 runs instead, Garcia doesn't have to pitch to begin with. Blow a team out once in a while and save your bullpen.

christaylor - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#459650) #
The time for change is now.
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#459651) #
Yes the team can't score enough runs but that doesn't mean you go and get more offense. It doesn't seem that more offense is available at this time. The time to do that was when Alonso and Bregman were available. So what is the next best solution to help you win those close games if you can't improve the offense? Get another closer type so you aren't imploding your bullpen on May 3. It would also provide some insurance since Hoffman and Garcia have both had injuries and or concerns recently.

Time for change is definitely now. Yesterday's loss relates to two bad managerial decisions. 1) leaving Gausman in against Minnesota last week and 2) leaving Garcia in to long.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#459653) #
Y-Rod should be groomed to be the next Yimi. Low-medium leverage to start and work towards higher leverage over time. One inning outings (more or less). Focus on best two or three pitches with more velocity than in starting role.

If the team needs a long man, go get someone like Yarbrough.
Nigel - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#459655) #
There are exceptions but this is still a horrible base running team.
92-93 - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#459656) #
1st and 3rd no outs, 2-0 count, #3 hitter up = 0 runs. Unbelievable.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#459657) #
However many games they win or don’t win this year, Schneider and the Blue Jays are simply not that good at winning games. Is it fair to say that after the last few years of regular season and postseason baseball?
92-93 - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#459658) #
Bring back Gibby. Heck, Cito.
Glevin - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#459659) #
I hate this Lh/RH automatic pinch hitting thing. Straw and Clement don't have big splits and aren't very good hitters and it's the 6th inning! Leave Barger and Roden in. There will be a righty pitching next time they're up anyway.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#459661) #
Straw

* Gms 01-13: 32pa, 6.3bb%, 12.5k%, .417babip, .379avg, .172iso, 183wrc+
* Gms 14-25: 23pa, 4.3bb%, 30.4k%, .214babip, .143avg, .048iso, 4wrc+

Plus whatever he does in today's game (0/1 popout so far).


It was smart to take advantage of his heater to start the year but most likely that's the last productivity we see from him, and now the defensive need is gone with Varsho back. They shouldn't hesitate to send him down if there's a guy earning a look in buffalo.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#459662) #
Greenfrog. Entering play today, the Jays are 16-17. Their expected record, based on run differential is 13-20. So, the Jays have won more games than they should have, which to me means they are good at winning.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#459663) #
just a terrible terrible call there to give Gaddis a 2-1 count instead of a 3-0 count, which then forced Kirk to swing and miss at a better outside pitch (still a ball tho) to get it to 2-2.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#459664) #
and some excellent defensive hitting by Kirk to get on base regardless of that terrible call.

good stuff.

now to the borderline mlbers to try and get us a clutch hit.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#459665) #
tying run in scoring position and we bunt.

and then Straw with the weak first pitch popout.

things i don't like.

come on roden save us kiddo.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#459666) #
lukes i mean not roden. come on lukes.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#459667) #
terrible.

and I know clement was unlikely to get a hit but the bunting with risp is fricken killing me.
Nigel - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#459668) #
Little has been good but I wonder what happens when the league starts to realize that very few of his pitches actually end up in the strike zone.
knuckeler - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#459669) #
The Jays not only need some thump, which we have finally seen a bit recently, but they need some people to deliver a hit more frequently than we have seen thus far this year for the Jays to win.
To start the season we had a few guys like Gimenez and Springer hit that we weren't expecting, while our expected big guns of Bichette and Vlad were only ok, and Santander swung the bat like it was the first time doing so in his life.
This is not a recipe for success as the lack of offense and in particular timely offense as in hits, is critical.
So now we have Bichette hitting barely above average, Vladdy
still below his pay grade and what he is capable of and Santander only now showing some pop but still below average and way below what he is capable of.
As the rest of the lineup has been below average, the only one thus far who has done well and exceeded expectations, save Kirk which I will talk about in a minute, is Springer who has hit well, consistently with good at bats and with power right from the start of the season. Who also, by the way, should be batting 3rd behind Vladdy instead of the rally killer Santander.
Now about our pudgy little catcher Kirk. You have to tip your cap to him as he has had a fine year thus far, calling good games, providing good targets, framing pitches and hitting as has Heineman, and seems to have discovered lightning in a bottle lately making consistently good hard contact. Let's hope that continues.
But the way I see it at the moment, the Jays need more timely hitting and more power which I don't see coming from any one in the lower part of the line up and not enough likely from the top.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#459670) #
Jays are now 30th in MLB in home runs
lexomatic - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#459671) #
Hitting issues aside, you also can't have 2 different pitchers giving up 3 walks in a single inning.
Waveburner - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#459672) #
I'm with UO, Myles Straw should never be used as a pinch hitter. There is mountains of evidence proving he is a terrible hitter.
uglyone - Sunday, May 04 2025 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#459673) #

Rangers outfielder Leodys Taveras on outright waivers, sources tell @TheAthletic. Any team that claimed him would assume balance of $4.75M salary.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 4, 2025
dalimon5 - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#459676) #
The quiet says it all. This team is exhausting on viewers with their roller coaster performances and frustrating losses. Are they truly this frustrating to watch or have our standards and controls worsened?
Eephus - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#459677) #
When the teams problems have persisted for an extended period of time and not nearly enough has or can be done to fix it… eventually you run out of ways to say the same thing over and over.
Nigel - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#459678) #
I think its also just the reality of where this team is at. Before the season started I thought that this was a low to mid 80's win team and a fringe WC contender. Nothing I've seen so far changes my view on that. Baseball teams go through some pretty frustrating stretches over a 162 game season when they are neither "very good" nor "very bad". The Jays' current iteration of low offence output probably heightens that problem. 9th inning grand slam losses have a way of punching your fandom in the gut for a day or two as well.
vw_fan17 - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#459679) #
Yeah, very little to get excited about these days.. Pitchers can be exciting at times, but, while I can appreciate our starting rotation, I rarely get excited by Bassitt or Gaussman - and I'm always nervous about Berrios and Francis and most of the pen. And waiting for disaster from whomever is Cinque-de-la-semaine (5th starter that week).

Hoffman is a bit exciting, but you never know when he'll be needed due to the offense. And on the offensive side, Springer is the closest thing we have to an exciting player so far, IMHO. Straw and Giminez's hot streaks are long over, Bichette is treading water (OPS+ of 102) and VGJ is, well, hitting more like LGJ (Lourdes Gurriel Jr), except for like 1.5x the cost (soon to be 2.5x the cost).

These days - very little to draw me in. If it wasn't that someone else in the family also uses my mlb.com account to watch games for another team (too many local blackouts), I may not have renewed my subscription to mlb.com this year.

Very little to like about the front office, either. I don't think AA was a once-in-a-lifetime genius or anything, but at least things were exciting. This front office is about as exciting as watching paint dry.
vw_fan17 - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#459680) #
And the manager seems like one of the worst we've had in quite awhile in terms of picking the wrong strategy almost every time. Or he's just very, very unlucky, which is functionally the same thing when it comes to managing a baseball club.
dalimon5 - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#459681) #
"And the manager seems like one of the worst we've had in quite awhile in terms of picking the wrong strategy almost every time. Or he's just very, very unlucky, which is functionally the same thing when it comes to managing a baseball club."

This.
John Northey - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#459682) #
We need a winning streak - not a 2 or 3 gamer, but a 10 game one to get fans excited. Either that or a prolonged strong stretch of 2 out of 3 until they are in 1st. Just 3 games out of 1st somehow, 2 1/2 out of the wild card. 2 1/2 ahead of the O's who are in last in the AL East. Go figure, the Tigers are #1 in the AL right now.
greenfrog - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#459684) #
I feel pretty uninspired by the team (and manager and front office) at the moment, but baseball can be unpredictable. Maybe the Blue Jays can turn it around and win a bunch of ballgames, as John described.
John Northey - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#459685) #
I was really hoping a kid would emerge this year but all 3 under 26 hitters are negative WAR so far (Clase, Barger, Roden) while the 26's are Vlad, Kirk, Gimenez (signed to long term deals), Wagner (flop), Schneider (flop). For pitchers Mason Fluharty is the only one under 27 (!) and has been effective, but his BABIP is 138 - that won't last, and as a LH reliever he could last forever but unless he becomes a closer he'll never draw flies to the park.

Btw, Judge has an insane 3.1 bWAR after just 34 games - a 14.77 pace over 162 - the hitters record is Ruth in 1923 with 14.1 - ahead of him are 12 pitchers from the 1800's (500+ IP in each case) and 2 years of Walter Johnson (346 & 369 IP). #20 is Dwight Gooden 1985 (an insane year at age 20 - 12.2 WAR, 1.53 ERA 229 ERA+ over 276 2/3 IP). Tied for 30th all time is 2 more Ruth years 12.6 each (1921/1927), then at #34 the first non-Ruth hitter season - Carl Yastrzemski 1967 at 12.4. Best 2000+ year for hitters? Barry Bonds 2001 11.9. Best Blue Jay? Roger Clemens 1997 12.1 (pre-drugs according to all reports - he started in '98 at some point based on anything I've read).

Just insanity there with Judge - who will always have a small * due to the league using special balls for his 62 HR season and the torpedo bats this year.
greenfrog - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#459686) #
Breathtaking start to the season by Judge. There is no way that pace is sustainable, but he could best his career highs in bWAR (10.8) and fWAR (11.2) if he can stay healthy.

We've been lucky to see some of the best players in MLB history in recent years (Trout in his 20s, Judge, Ohtani).

Vladdy, whose contract is a lot bigger than Judge's, has some catching up to do. He's at 0.5 fWAR / 0.6 bWAR this year -- around one-sixth of the WAR posted by Judge so far in 2025.
greenfrog - Monday, May 05 2025 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#459687) #
I remember there was some debate around Nick Pivetta as a FA target at the end of the off-season. He's been a pretty good pickup for SD at 4/$55m. He has cut his walk rate (from 3.25 / 9IP career to 2.68) and his HR / 9IP from 1.50 to 0.67 and his ERA from 4.66 to 2.01, including tonight's start through 5 IP. There will no doubt be some regression to the mean, but...nice start to the season for him.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#459688) #
Sad day for ex-Jays - Ross Stripling retired after 2 horrid years post-Toronto (72 ERA+ over 174 1/3 IP while making $25 mil so I guess not a total disaster for him personally), and Trevor Richards was released from his AAA contract with the Cubs (7 G 8 2/3 IP 7 H 8 R 7 ER 7 BB 12 SO). Richards I'd consider signing to a AAA deal as they've already used 22 pitchers there, so who knows?).
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#459689) #
Another meltdown for Devin Williams (10.03 ERA) yesterday. The Yankees blew a 3-0 lead and lost to the Padres 4-3. Somehow the sorry Blue Jays are only 2.5 games out of first place.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#459690) #
The AL East is the AL Least this year - Yankees have a 131 OPS+ (4 regular hitters over 1 for bWAR already), and Max Fried has been insane (1.01 ERA = 394 ERA+) and Roden solid (116 ERA+) but the rest of the pitching...oh boy. Devin Williams needs to be taken out of the closer role (50 ERA+), Stroman has a 35 ERA+, the others used as starters are better, but not by a lot (3 guys with ERA+'s of 67-73 plus Yarborough getting an opener start). Yet somehow they have a 111 ERA+ despite that chaos. Gerrit Cole is out for all of 2025.
John Northey - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#459692) #
Looking at guys we wanted here last winter...
  • Juan Soto - 133 OPS+, solid but not anywhere near what is needed with his contract.
  • Pete Alonso - 216 OPS+, holy crap - if only he took the Jays money last winter, rumors were the Jays offered more (multiple sources claimed to know they did) but he wanted to be a Met. Sigh.
  • Cody Bellinger - 82 OPS+, yikes. Got lucky there after chasing and not getting him 3 winters in a row.
  • Willy Adames - SS/3B 96 OPS+, ugh. $182 mil that would've felt wasted.
  • Jurickson Profar - 28 OPS+ - phew - $36 mil totally wasted by Atlanta
  • Alex Bregman - 172 OPS+ - yikes! A lot of us wanted him and felt he was a perfect fit at 3B, but the Jays didn't feel $120 mil over 3 years was a good deal.
  • Corbin Burnes - solid 117 ERA+, not a Cy contender but solid
  • Yusei Kikuchi - 99 ERA+, about what I'd expect from him
  • Teoscar Hernández - many here wanted him here badly, and his 153 OPS+ would look sweet in LF right now.
  • Max Fried - see Yankee comment above, 1.01 ERA - dang, if only.
  • Anthony Santander - who we got, 65 OPS+, sigh.
So Alonso, Bregman, Teoscar, and Fried were the correct ones to go for last winter. Sadly the Yankees got Fried, Red Sox Bregman, and we got Santander. I have hopes that he'll come through in the end, it has been just 1 month after all and we all know there is no way Fried has a 1.01 ERA in September, Alonso a 216 OPS+, or even Teoscar a 153 OPS+ - but dang it would've been fun if the Jays had signed any those 4, ideally 2 of them. But thankfully they didn't get Adames or Bellinger
Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#459693) #
Vladdy, whose contract is a lot bigger than Judge's, has some catching up to do. He's at 0.5 fWAR / 0.6 bWAR this year -- around one-sixth of the WAR posted by Judge so far in 2025.

There are some good lessons about patience & player development we could take away from Judge - he was always an extremely good player, but then when he was 30 he took a giant leap forward into one of the best in the history of the game. And this after only playing his first full MLB season at 26. Baseball America named him the 90th best prospect in February 2017.

So you never know.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#459696) #
We don’t even have to look to Judge to glean that insight. Look at what Bautista, EE and Justin Turner did in their careers starting at age 29.

Still, it’s worth remembering that those players are very much the exception. Most position players are at their best during the peak years of early/mid-20s to late 20s (or maybe early 30s in some cases).

Hope for the best, plan for the statistical norm.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#459698) #
Plausible best lineup using this year's stats only:

* 1. LF Lukes 55pa, .389obp, 131wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 2. RF Springer 115pa, .416obp, 166wrc+, 4.5war/650
* 3. 1B Guerrero 148pa, .358obp, 123wrc+, 2.2war/650
* 4. CF Varsho 17pa, .353obp, 167wrc+, 11.5war/650
* 5. SS Bichette 155pa, .323obp, 102wrc+, 1.7war/650
* 6. C Alejandro 105pa, .286obp, 81wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 7. DH Santander 146pa, .267obp, 68wrc+, -1.8war/650
* 8. 2B Gimenez 136pa, .272obp, 67wrc+, 1.4war/650
* 9. 3B Clement 88pa, .256obp, 50wrc+, 2.2war/650

* B. UT Roden 84pa, .262obp, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* B. OF Straw 57pa, .309obp, 100wrc+, 4.6war/650
* B. IF Barger 39pa, .205obp, 22wrc+, 0.0war/650
* B. C Heineman 34pa, .412obp, 186wrc+, 15.3war/650

* X. UT Schneider 21pa, .333obp, 54wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 4pa, .000obp, -100wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Wagner 68pa, .284obp, 53wrc+, -2.9war/650
* X. C



Using Past 1 Calendar Year stats:

* 1. LF Lukes 146pa, .378obp, 143wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 696pa, .402obp, 171wrc+, 5.4war/650
* 3. DH Santander 677pa, .306obp, 124wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 4. RF Springer 587pa, .330obp, 115wrc+, 2.3war/650
* 5. C Alejandro 413pa, .317obp, 98wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 6. CF Varsho 415pa, .285obp, 93wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 7. SS Bichette 362pa, .304obp, 89wrc+, 1.4war/650
* 8. 2B Gimenez 630pa, .283obp, 75wrc+, 2.2war/650
* 9. 3B Clement 479pa, .277obp, 83wrc+, 2.6war/650

* B. UT Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650
* B. OF Straw 61pa, .305obp, 96wrc+, 4.3war/650
* B. IF Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* B. C Heineman 48pa, .375obp, 142wrc+, 10.8war/650

* X. UT Schneider 394pa, .272obp, 69wrc+, -0.3war.650
* X. OF Loperfido 248pa, .259obp, 73wrc+, 0.3war/650
* X. IF Barger 246pa, .257obp, 73wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 107pa, .305obp, 120wrc+, 5.5war/650

* X. UT Roden 84pa, .262obp, 53wrc+, 0.8war/650
* X. OF Clase 42pa, .310obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 124pa, .301obp, 63wrc+, -2.1war/650
* X. C Sanchez 96pa, .211obp, 11wrc+, -1.4war/650



Using Fangraphs Combined Rest of Season Projections:


* 1. SS Bichette 509pa, .326obp, 116wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 536pa, .368obp, 145wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 3. DH Santander 531pa, .313obp, 119wrc+, 2.3war/650
* 4. RF Springer 476pa, .329obp, 113wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 5. 3B Wagner 243pa, .343obp, 112wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 6. C Alejandro 339pa, .340obp, 114wrc+, 5.8war/650
* 7. CF Varsho 498pa, .300obp, 107wrc+, 3.4war/650
* 8. LF Roden 315pa, .333obp, 107wrc+, 2.1war/650
* 9. 2B Gimenez 503pa, .318obp, 103wrc+, 4.0war/650

* B. UT Barger 155pa, .309obp, 104wrc+, 2.5war/650
* B. OF Lukes 61pa, .338obp, 111wrc+, 3.2war/650
* B. IF Clement 265pa, .298obp, 96wrc+, 2.7war/650
* B. C Heineman 111pa, .312obp, 88wrc+, 3.5war/650

* X. UT Schneider 77pa, .320obp, 107wrc+, 1.7war/650
* X. OF Clase 44pa, .295obp, 90wrc+, 1.5war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 22pa, .333obp, 110wrc+, 3.0war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 61pa, .277obp, 94wrc+, 2.1war/650

* X. UT Martinez 72pa, .278obp, 89wrc+, 0.9war/650
* X. OF Loperfido 22pa, .290obp, 90wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Berroa 11pa, .293obp, 81wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Straw 77pa, .301obp, 78wrc+, 1.7war/650


JohnL - Tuesday, May 06 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#459719) #
Speaking of former Blue Jays, I see LaTroy Hawkins just got his bachelor's degree at age 52. Sociology from Southern New Hampshire U.

In 2015, he was the oldest player in MLB; nice balance to Osuna, the youngest. I remember one of the playoff announcers saying "Hawkins has sweaters in his closet that are older than Osuna."
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