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Welcome to Steinbrenner Field. At least it's not the bloody Trop.

The Rays are puttering along, a couple of games below .500, with what looks like a slightly below average offence offset by being a little better than average at preventing the other team from scoring. It's not immediately clear how they do this - at first glance, they appear to have just one good hitter and just one good pitcher, neither of whom is exactly  a proven big time sort of guy.

The pitcher is tonight's starter, Drew Rasmussen, and Rasmussen has in fact always been quite a good pitcher for Tampa Bay - it's just that he's spent so much time on the IL that it's hard to regard him as someone to be counted on. This is his fifth season there, and while he's gone 21-15, 2.75 on their behalf, he's been able to give them more than 59 IP in a season just once. But he's taking the ball tonight, and he's reliably good when he does.

The hitter is first baseman Jonathan Aranda, who has spent the past three seasons going back and forth between Tampa Bay and AAA Durham. In 110 major league games, he hit .222/.309/.382 with 10 HR in 293 ABs. He had demonstrated three years ago, back in 2022, that he was much too good for AAA, but he didn't do much in his major league cups of the coffee, and the Rays didn't seem to have figured out just where he was going to play. He had mostly been a second baseman to that point, and Brandon Lowe was rather firmly entrenched at that spot for the major league team. SO rinse and repeat for 2023. And 2024. This time around, the Rays have put Aranda at first base with Yandy Diaz moving to the DH spot. So far, so good - but he's hitting .390 on his BallsInPlay, and that can't continue indefinitely.

Another comparatively new face in the Tampa lineup is third baseman Junior Caminero, the 21 year old from the Dominican, who held his own in a 43 game look last season. Caminero has hit into 14 GIDPs in just 45 games, which leads the majors, by quite a bit. Well of course it does - Caminero is on a pace to hit into 46 of the damned things by the time the season is over, which would completely obliterate the single season record (36, by Jim Rice in 1984.) So that's something to keep track of!

Oh, they got other guys. I know. Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe aren't hitting a whole lot yet, but that probably won't last forever. Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell - they haven't been very good but they'll probably pitch better.  Their pitchers as a staff don't strike out a lot of guys, but they don't walk many either. And their defenders don't make many errors and they turn the double play very well.

I'm sure they will do their best to be their usual irritating selves. But at least we don't have to put up with the bloody Trop.

Matchups

Fri 23 May - Lauer (1-0, 2.25) vs Rasmussen (2-4, 2.93)
Sat 24 May - Berrios (1-1, 4.19) vs Baz (3-3, 5.33)
Sun 25 May - Bassitt (4-2, 2.83) vs Pepiot (2-5, 3.99)
Toronto at Tampa Bay, May 23-25 | 103 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
pooks137 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#460288) #
I was expecting the Jays to put Santander on the IL today to bring up a fresh Buffalo arm to help protect Lauer after the bullpen was emptied last night.

Are there still roster limits on how many pitchers can be on the 26-man at one time?

Stefanic would be the easy cut because they aren't playing him, but they are already dangerously low on infielders with Gimenez & Santander unavailable. And it being harder to dispatch Clase now that he's finally contributed.
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#460290) #
The 13-pitcher limit is definitely in force.

The good news is that nobody in the pen except Urena pitched Wednesday, so there shouldn't be many who are strictly unavailable. Little threw 34 pitches, so I'd avoid him, and while I think he'd be available, I'd hope they can avoid going to Hoffman after a blown save yesterday.

There isn't much down on the farm. Easton Lucas to the rescue? Paxton Shultz? Is Urena optionable?
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#460291) #
In addition to Little and Hoffman, Rodriguez should be down too tonight. Garcia, Green, Fluharty, and Fisher are all very fresh though and should be able to get more than 3 outs. Urena's 35 pitches the other night were low-stress.
Nigel - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#460293) #
They really need Lauer/Urena give them 6-7 innings tonight. Sure, all but Little, Hoffman and Rodriguez are probably good to go tonight, but the pen issues will compound badly over the weekend if the non-Lauer/Urena arms have to give them 6 innings tonight (like Lauer's last start).
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#460296) #
The only optionable relievers the Jays have, it seems, are Little, Fluharty and Fisher. Urena is on a major-league contract, and Rodriguez's contract, iirc, doesn't allow the Jays to option him.

I think the Jays may try to get a couple innings out of Fisher today (he only threw three pitches last night) and then option him back to Buffalo and call up Schultz. If it's a close game and Lauer can give us four innings, I'd much rather see Fisher than Urena.
Kelekin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#460297) #
Lukes sitting at an .807 OPS with an even BB:K. You love to see it. Varsho with an .855 OPS despite a .239 OBP and 34% K rate. Despite the power, it's a pretty big indictment of the lineup that he's hitting 3rd as much as he has, but at least he's been performing.

Magpie - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#460298) #
Random question. Do any other teams have their leading RBI guy batting leadoff?
SK in NJ - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#460301) #
The only way Schneider lets Lauer/Urena go 6-7 innings is if the team is either leading or losing by a lot. No chance he avoids using high leverage relievers in the 5th or 6th inning if the game is close. I agree that would be the best course of action. In particular is Lauer is doing well he needs to be kept in the game and not pulled after 3 innings before of a pre-game decision.
Kelekin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#460302) #
My first thought was Ohtani, but Teoscar has 39 RBI.

Bichette is wasted in the leadoff spot, but it's worked out because the bottom of the order has over-performed compared to the top of the order.

Put Lukes in the leadoff spot! .374 OBP, baby.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#460307) #
I honestly feel that the emergence of Addison Barger may save the season and the outlook of the team moving forward.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#460309) #
so we get our heads just above .500, only 2gms out of all 3 wildcard spots, with things starting to feel a little better all around.

and we get 3 series against mediocre to poor teams to get us through May, giving us the chance to go on an actual run and get ourselves into playoffs position heading into June.

seems like a great opportunity right now, but I'm far too scarred by our history in TB to feel anything but dread heading into this weekend.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#460310) #
The answer is staring you in the face, Magpie.
Magpie - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#460311) #
Yandy Diaz is hitting leadoff?

We live in strange and disturbing times.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#460313) #
Nathan Lukes has been an excellent platoon outfielder for 200 PAs in 2024-25; there's absolutely nothing that screams fluke. He hits for medium range pop, he hits line drives (29%) and he controls the strike zone like a fiend. Good defender in an outfield corner and a capable baserunner.

He is 30 years old and almost 31, and it is unusual that he's a far better player now then ever. A lower case Jose Cruz Sr., maybe.
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#460315) #
Santander sitting again. If they had put him on IL a week ago like a lot of us were calling for, hed be eligible to be off on Monday and Jays wouldn't be shorthanded. Just baffling decision making. He's hurt. Let him get better. This isn't a playoff game where he needs to gut it out.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#460316) #
“I was thinking about safety squeezing there, to be honest with you, just because of Varsh being that good of a base runner at 3rd and with the velo at the top.” - Schneider on Lukes’ game winning AB
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#460317) #
I’m not sure who thought Santander should have been put on the IL a week ago but I’m thankful he was not, considering he hit a big 2-run HR on Tuesday.
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#460318) #
He's definitely a late-bloomer, but it's kinda crazy to look back at 2023 and see he spent about three months with the team and got all of 31 plate appearances. Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio were backing up Kiermaier/Varsho/Springer that year.
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#460319) #
Santander got a big HR in the 3-0 win but he also went 0-4 with 3 K's in a one run loss. Since May 15, he's only had 10 abs and is 2/10 with 7Ks. He should have been on the IL the entire time.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#460320) #
jerjapan was the first on the Lukes bandwagon (at least a year or two ago), if I’m not mistaken. He’s been championing him for a long time.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#460321) #
ahem.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#460322) #
"I was thinking about safety squeezing there, to be honest with you, just because of Varsh being that good of a base runner at 3rd and with the velo at the top.” - Schneider on Lukes’ game winning AB"

I appreciate Schneider's trolling game tbh.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#460326) #
Let's take a look at Lukes' career and see what might have happened.

Note: Lukes is a July baby so his age at all these levels shows him a full year older than june babies in the same year.


* Age 20 (A-): 18pa, .417babip, 147wrc+

Drafted in the 7th round by CLE (Shapiro?). No idea the financial issues there.

* Age 21 (A): 393pa, .349babip, 144wrc+
* Age 21 (A+): 94pa, .241babip, 44wrc+

Fantastic first year as a prospect though he struggled after the promotion.

* Age 22 (A+): 22pa, .500babip, 172wrc+
* Age 22 (AA): 404pa, .323babip, 100wrc+

Surprisingly quick promotion up to AA considering his struggles in A+ the year before. They must have liked him quite a bit as a prospect to have him essentially skip A+.

Held his own in AA at a very young 22. Not great but pretty good.

* Age 23 (AA): 484pa, .336obp, 106wrc+

Spent the whole year repeating AA, and again just held his own.

* Age 24 (AAA): 295pa, .260babip, 56wrc+

They pushed him up to AAA despite being only medicore in AA, and he struggled badly. I don't remember whether 2019 was effected by covid or not but he only got half a season in here.

* Age 25 - nada

An entire season wiped out by covid at a pretty critical time in his career. bad luck.

* Age 26 (AAA): 326pa, .335babip, 111wrc+

comes back from covid and has a very solid season in AAA, just not spectacular enough to get a call up. though that might have had something to do with his contract situation - he ended up as FA after this one solid but not spectacular AAA season at age 26 after having no 25yr old season and a terrible 24yr old half season. Jays pick him up as a FA.

* Age 27 (AAA): 484pa, .336babip, 114wrc+ - TOR

Another very solid but not spectacular season in his first year with the jays org.

* Age 28 (AAA): 222pa, .401babip, 146wrc+
* Age 28 (MLB): 31pa, .278babip, 66wrc+

Obviously the babip had a big part in his huge jump in AAA production, but it was far from the only thing - he put up by far his best bb/k ratio of his career this year (7.7%/11.3%), and had solid enough power too (.163iso) abd the highest linedrive percentage of his career too.

I forget why he didn't have a ton of playing time this year - i have to think this was an injury?

* Age 29 (A): 12pa, .571babip, 132wrc+
* Age 29 (AAA): 231pa, .378babip, 135wrc+
* Age 29 (MLB): 91pa, .319babip, 132wrc+

Yeah must have been a serious injury that cut his 2023 short amd delayed the start of his 2024. tbh i don't remember. But he put up another very good year and showed that the babip in AAAA might be showing some aspect of skill and not just luck. Also maintained very very good bb/k rates again in AAA.

Then he surprisingly carried that very good performance up to MLB with him. Didn't even need elevated babip or iso to put up that mlb line, though surprisingly he put up better bb/k rates (11.0%/9.9%) than he ever had in his milb career.

* Age 30 (AAA): 102pa, .269babip, 135wrc+

And now he's maintaining that level for a 2nd year, even while the babip dropped. He's had a bit of a power spike but not a huge one. And he's mainted elite bb/k rates - (12.7%/12.7%) again.

So yeah while he deserves his mlb line and should sustain most of it, there's definitely reasons to think he'll drop back closer to an average hitter than a very good one - i.e. it's just hard to believe that he's suddenly figured out how to put up better bb/k rates in the bigs than he ever did in the minors.



BUT, at least we see some clear reasons why he might have been skipped over....

- covid break hit him at maybe the worst possible time. just a crucial point in his career.
- and then, when he did break out in AAA with the jays, he sutained a major injury apparently which delayed his arrival another year or more.

GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#460330) #
Lukes never went on the IL in 2023; he was up with the major league club for nearly three months and just was given almost no playing time.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#460332) #
Lukes is up to a 139 wRC+ with his 1/1 so far tonight.

Even if he cools down, he could be a decent fourth OF later this season with Roden / Varsho / Springer starting in the outfield.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#460333) #
well, hopefully Lauer can get through the bottom of the order unscathed next inning, and then i guess he calls it a night.

up to our bats to do something now.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#460335) #
scathed it is, then.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#460336) #
Down by 3 in the Trop is like being down by 4 in other ballparks. Not insurmountable, but a challenging deficit to overcome (especially when your pitching plan is Lauer-plus-bullpen).
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#460337) #
I will say Clase is having much better better abs this week. Lineup depth is so much better than it was in April.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#460338) #
i hate playing here so so much.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#460339) #
this fisher guy seems pretty good to me.
Ryan Day - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#460340) #
I'm rooting for Clase to develop, because he looks like he could be a really fun player to watch.  It's been ages since the Jays had an actual baserunning threat.
soupman - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#460341) #
Isn’t the Trop destroyed and the game is in thenYankee’s spring facility?
soupman - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#460342) #
Skenes ran up his pitch count and only made it through six. The Pirates turned around and gave up the lead the next inning.

Is there a package the Jays can muster to get him?
Chuck - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#460343) #
Yandy Diaz is hitting leadoff?

Hasn't he been their regular leadoff hitter for a couple of years now?

Chuck - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#460344) #
Kirk has started walking again with half his season's walks coming in the last four games. That's another sign -- on top of all his hits of late -- that he's not pressing so much like he did early on. Kirk clogging up the bases is better than Kirk clogging up the dugout.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#460345) #
Maybe Clase should have bunted…?
Nigel - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#460346) #
I’m rooting for Clase too. He’s got a lot of tools. The team really needs one or two surprise development stories. One cautionary note. I listen to Mariners radio broadcasts here in Vancouver. When the trade was made I was listening to the Mariners GM talk about the trade. He was very complementary about Clase’s tools he was pretty brutal in talking about Clase’s baseball sense. Of course the vending GM has reason to be less than complimentary.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#460347) #
truly don't think it would be a surprise tbh.

Clase

* MLB (23): 35pa, 92wrc+ (young for level)
* MLB (22): 101pa, 89wrc+ (young for level)
* AAA (23): 106pa, 127wrc+ (age appropriate)
* AAA (22): 426pa, 100wrc+ (young for level)
* AA (21): 489pa, 105wrc+ (young for level)
* A+ (21): 106pa, 197wrc+ (age appropriate)
* A (20): 499pa, 119wrc+ (age appropriate)
* CPX (19): 57pa, 97wrc+ (age appropriate)
* Rk (17): 286pa, 149wrc+ (young for level)
lexomatic - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#460348) #
what a frustrating missed opportunity with 6 walks in the last 3 innings.

Re Lukes, there is the possible platoon effect for this year that might result in slightly higher than expected performance going forward.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#460349) #
Playing the Rays on the road has always been one of my least favourite Blue Jays series to follow (whether that changes post-Trop remains to be seen — thanks for reminding me of that development!). The Blue Jays don’t often get crushed by Tampa; rather, they get ground into submission and lose by a run or two.
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#460350) #
He was very complementary about Clase’s tools he was pretty brutal in talking about Clase’s baseball sense"

That's my feeling watching him too. Great skills but not a good handle on them. (terrible routes, bad swing decisions, etc...) I'd take that way over a great handle on mediocre skills though. For me, key is his D. If he can stick in CF, he, has speed and power and has a high floor and high ceiling. If he's a corner OF, offensive bar is way up and hard to see a pathway to a career there.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#460355) #
For anyone that didn't see the end of the game last night, Schneider PH Santander for Clase against Fairbanks with two outs in the 9th, who took a walk, before Lukes K'ed to end the game.

So any hopes of retroactively putting Anthony on the IL for a short stint were actively reset.
scottt - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#460357) #
They said during the game that Santander's hip might be healing slowly because of the long hours he's putting in the cage.
That doesn't sound like someone who is heading to the IL.

Besides, he seems to be good enough to pinch hit and there would be no point in bringing someone else up to sit on the bench.
Gerry - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#460358) #
Its not a good week to be an ex-Blue Jay pitcher. Genesis Cabrera, Julian Merryweather and Sean Reid-Foley have been DFA'd or released this week.
uglyone - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#460359) #
Honest question - how can you tell the difference between "poor baseball sense" and "raw youngster", especially in a guy who just turned 23 yesterday, who is not only the youngest on the mlb roster, but also the youngest on the AAA roster, and younger than any of the standout AA guys too?
BlueJayWay - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#460361) #
Yimi to the IL
pooks137 - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#460362) #
Its not a good week to be an ex-Blue Jay pitcher. Genesis Cabrera, Julian Merryweather and Sean Reid-Foley have been DFA'd or released this week.

It's good not to get too worked up about the middle relievers that got away and had some success with rival clubs. They are too inconsistent & fungible to try to waste roster spots forever to collect 'em all.

Looks like Cabrera was victim to a roster crunch. MLBTR had him pitching 2 innings after the Mets emptied their pen after an early rain delay took out the starter. Without having options, he was the one to go to bring up a fresh arm.

Merryweather seemingly got cut just a few days before hitting 5 years service time where the Cubs would owe him his full 1.25 mil arb salary for being released. He has been awful, but it seems there was some strategic pennypinching timing there.

Reid-Foley seems like a pure baseball move. He's 29 running an ERA over 7 in AAA as a reliever.

Half a decade later, the most valuable asset from the Steven Matz deal ended up being a sinkerball swingman in Josh Winckowski.

pooks137 - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#460363) #
Yimi to the IL

Unexpected.

Shoulder impingement is not a good prognosis. That's a likely long IL stint with a decent chance of ending up with surgery.

Silver lining is that Schulz on the roster to replace Garcia gives the pen more length.

Garcia going down also frees up a 26-man spot for either Swanson or Burr who are reportedly only about 10 days out.

Yimi being hurt also likely keeps one of Urena or Fisher around a while longer. Although IIRC Swanson & Burr will still need 40-man spots, so a few Steward Berroa-like cuts may still be be coming.

pooks137 - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#460364) #
Honest question - how can you tell the difference between "poor baseball sense" and "raw youngster", especially in a guy who just turned 23 yesterday, who is not only the youngest on the mlb roster, but also the youngest on the AAA roster, and younger than any of the standout AA guys too?

I think "baseball sense" is probably something that can't be improved much even in youngish prospects like Clase, much like batting eye or first step quickness in outfielders & infielders.

Clase has been playing affiliated ball since age 17, has almost 500 games & over 2k plate appearances between the minors, MLB & winter ball.

If he's still making boneheaded mistakes like bad outfield routes, poor swing decisions or throwing to the wrong base, it can hardly be blamed on not enough experience.

In the recent Addison Barger Sportsnet piece where a 14-year-old Barger traveled to a prospect showcase in the DR due to his homeschooling, he was quoted as saying that the very young Dominican teens were solely focused on maximizing tools to get noticed & signed by 16. While even a very young Barger without an organized HS or travel team talked about how the US system was much more focused on developing "baseball skills" rather than raw physical tools.

There’s probably some room for coaching & improvement wrt to defense for Clase. Teoscar Hernandez stands out as a guy coming to Toronto around age 25 as a DH-caliber butcher in the field despite the physical tools to at least play CF in the minors & winter ball. But Teoscar in the end improved enough in his late 20s in RF that he was playable as an everyday outfielder that no one made fun of anymore (becoming a Silver Slugger on offense also helped).

OTOH, you have someone like Varsho who player catcher throughout his college career in a northern cold weather, shortseason state. He makes the Diamondbacks as a catcher. The Jays make him the centerpiece of their 2023 defense first overhaul, and he instantly becomes a Gold Glove CF (or at least once Kevin Kiermaier was dispatched) purely based on his routes & his first step instincts without actually possessing top percentile footspeed.

Magpie - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#460367) #
Let's try this again.

the most valuable asset from the Steven Matz deal

Is probably Steven Matz himself, pitching very well for a St.Louis team that doesn't have a space for him in their rotation and rather surprisingly is very much in the Wild Card hunt over in the Other League.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#460368) #
You guys need to stop with the Alan Roden propaganda. If he's their left fielder in August, it means they're out of contention or they really effed up at the trade deadline and didn't pick up any bats.
pooks137 - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#460369) #
Is probably Steven Matz himself, pitching very well for a St.Louis team that doesn't have a space for him in their rotation and rather surprisingly is very much in the Wild Card hunt over in the Other League.

It's funny because I checked out Matz' BBRef page not that long ago, but you appear to be correct.

Though this does seem to be a little bit of deadcat bounce for Steven as there's no room him in the Cardinals rotation in Year 4 of his 4/44 deal because he was awful & hurt in Years 1 & 3 (and managed only 17 starts in his decent 2 bWaR Year 2).

His usage in 2025 is strange as a swingman. He has an ERA of 1.74 over 30+ innings but only two starts. He has a couple of more traditional longman type outings. But he's mostly pitching 2 innings at a time for the 6th through 8th.

He's only striking out 7.3K/9, isn't walking anyone 0.9 BB/9 and hasn't given up a dinger yet.

So he's been quite good, but definitely due for some batted balled regression.

Nigel - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#460370) #
The thing about average/mediocre clubs is that they tend to look good for a while and then they look bad for a while. Of course, they are never as good as bad as they look when they’re on one end of the spectrum or the other. But this edition of the Jays, when it looks bad, looks like it might never score again for some reason. There’s some version of this club that just starts to roll over one weak AB after the other - it’s like negative momentum.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#460371) #
Did Yimi get injured due to overuse (especially that high-pitch inning a few weeks ago against Cleveland where he gave up the game-winning home run)? He's almost 35 but has pitched a lot this year, and he's throwing very hard -- his velo in 2024-2025 is the highest of his career. Kind of a recipe for injury.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#460372) #
Well that was pathetic — the whole game but especially Straw batting with the game on the line in the ninth (two on, two out, down by two runs).
pooks137 - Saturday, May 24 2025 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#460373) #
Myles Straw was 2/2 lifetime with a double against Pete Fairbanks.

I believe this likely played into the decision to leave Straw to bat in the Top of the 9th with 2 on & 2 out instead of PHing Clase.

Either that or Schneider was hesitant to have Clase face Fairbanks in a big spot never having faced him before.
Michael - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#460374) #
Fairbanks has a pretty funny pitch grip/delivery where it almost looks like he's palming the ball or something, but looking for video of that, I found instead video of him being interviewed, and he's a too rare funny honest sports interview subject. It is funny to see the various answers to stupid questions about games that he blew.
John Northey - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#460376) #
Well, it is frustrating watching this team vs the Rays (I mean any Jays team vs the Rays from 1998 to now) but still tied for 2nd in East, 8 1/2 up on the O's who are in dead last by 7 1/2 behind the Rays. Ouch.

The old reminder things can always be worse. The O's got all these great kids up, made the playoffs twice, didn't win a game in the post season (sound familiar?), and now are falling apart at the seams. Their 'big' free agent, Tyler O'Neill, has a 76 OPS+, their star catcher Rutschman a 92 (continuing a downward trend OPS+ of 131-128-107-92 with his WAR dropping a full win+ per year too). The starters, outside of 35 year old Sugano, have ERA+'s of sub 80 each (not counting Akin who has 2 as an opener - 2 2/3 IP over 2 starts, 0 H 0 R 2 BB 3 SO).

Yeah, the Jays aren't great, but damn the O's really screwed the pooch going for just 1 starting pitcher (did a good job getting Sugano) when they needed a batch of them. Here Gausman, Bassitt both 100+, Berrios 96 are all acceptable, and our big 4 have 10 starts each (Francis not too effective, but at least showing up, averaging 5 IP per game).
uglyone - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#460378) #
"If he's still making boneheaded mistakes like bad outfield routes, poor swing decisions or throwing to the wrong base, it can hardly be blamed on not enough experience."

True enough.

But then i wonder how it's possible that a guy with such poor baseball sense could manage to consistently post very good walk rates, very good stolen base rates, and rate highly defensively while young for every level.....and continually get promoted aggressively by both organizations he's been in.
Nigel - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#460380) #
Those are all fair questions uo. I will say that scouting/rating for defense in the minors is often based on defensive tools (he’s fast, he has a good arm, etc.) and not actual defensive ability. Teoscar Hernandez had good to excellent reports on his defence in the minors. Determining actual defensive ability takes lots of data (plays) and isn’t suited to small sample sizes (infrequent viewing). So far (in a small sample size) Clase has been terrible defensively but he appears to have excellent defensive tools. But it’s too early to reach any conclusions on any of that.
pooks137 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#460381) #
C Ali Sanchez called up. Heineman to 7-day Concussion IL retroactive to May 23rd. Josh Walker DFAed.
pooks137 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#460382) #
Heineman took two direct hits to the mask off foul tips in the 7-6 extra innings win against the Padres Thurs.

Buck was noting that he wears the old round catcher's mask on top of the batting helmet, which was hit askew twice.

Kirk ended up PHing in the 10th for offensive reasons along with Springer to try to end the game, which went 11.

Makes one wonder if Heineman was actually available on Fri & Sat off the bench. Kirk did reach base late in at least one of the 3-1 losses and they didn't PR for him (I thought maybe they were saving Clase as a PH option).

The broadcast made a big deal last night that Kirk & Heineman weren't warming up the pitchers in between innings because of the humidity & heat, so they had a 19 y/o Panamanian kid doing it (? a IFA signing).

It's possible they had the 19-year-old kid doing it because they wanted to keep Kirk fresh but Heineman was essentially unavailable.
pooks137 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#460383) #
The time I was mildly surprised they didn't PR for Kirk was Fri where they were down 3-0 & Kirk walked to lead off the 7th against Mason Montgomery. Barger & Clement walked behind Kirk loading the bases with no one out.

Kevin Cash then brought in Manuel Rodriguez to face Jonatan Clase, who GIDP with Kirk scoring from 3rd.

So, not a perfect PR opportunity, down 3-0 at the Top 7th needing 3 runs and a very wild pitcher in Montgomery. Still a chance that Kirk's spot in the order would come around again.

There wasn't really a PR opportunity last night either.

Kirk singled against Baz with two outs in the top of the 6th with the score 3-1 after Vlad's solo HR 3 batters prior. Kirk's single knocked Baz out of the game for Cleavinger.

So even more unlikely that anyone would've PR for Kirk here this early.

So it doesn't seem as though Heineman's unavailability really impacted PR decisions at all.
Nigel - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#460384) #
Springer is really struggling right now. He’s getting beaten by non premium FBs again just like last year. It will be interesting to see if he can get back on top of that.
Glevin - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#460385) #
Just when you have hope in this team again, they play a series like this. Ugly.
pooks137 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#460386) #
Springer is really struggling right now.

That disastrous Bottom 5 is going to kill George's fielding stats for a long time.

His lack of range/positioning had him miss 3 balls to more or less the same spot.

greenfrog - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#460387) #
Was this series the beginning of the end for the 2025 Blue Jays?

The team is falling well off the pace in the AL East (7.0 GB if NYY holds on against Colorado in the ninth inning) and in the WC race (the Blue Jays are now 9th of 12 teams in the competition for those three spots). They have the fifth-worst run differential in the AL, ahead of only LAA, CWS, OAK, and BAL.

Yimi is injured. Heineman is injured. Springer and Bo have cooled off. Vladdy isn't hitting for much power. Santander has awful numbers and may be nursing injuries, etc.

Some might say this is just being "glass half empty," but the standings are the standings. The team's aggregate offensive and pitching numbers speak for themselves.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#460388) #
Oneil Cruz hit a home run that left the bat at 122.9 MPH — “the hardest-hit ball since Statcast started tracking in 2015” (ESPN).
knuckeler - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#460389) #
"Was this series the beginning of the end for the 2025 Blue Jays?"

The team is falling well off the pace in the AL East (7.0 GB if NYY holds on against Colorado in the ninth inning) and in the WC race (the Blue Jays are now 9th of 12 teams in the competition for those three spots). They have the fifth-worst run differential in the AL, ahead of only LAA, CWS, OAK, and BAL.

Yimi is injured. Heineman is injured. Springer and Bo have cooled off. Vladdy isn't hitting for much power. Santander has awful numbers and may be nursing injuries, etc.

Some might say this is just being "glass half empty," but the standings are the standings. The team's aggregate offensive and pitching numbers speak for themselves.

I spoke of this earlier, how terrible the top of the lineup is, its not just bad, they are setting records for not being able to score runs in the first inning, putting more pressure on the pitching.

Bo and Vladdy act like it's a summer camp, with poor focus and execution along with Santander.

And boy everybody who can hit a HR has great games against Toronto pitching it does not matter who they play for or how good of hitters they are, they all hit HR's against Toronto consistently game after game series after series.

As soon as Toronto came up empty in their half of the first inning and Bassitt walked Josh Lowe despite Brendan Lowe only hitting a microscopic .228 I was saying he is going to hit another HR against Toronto right here.... and there it went over the wall. Despite only being the first inning, I turned the TV off as I knew the game was over.
pooks137 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#460390) #
The Jays are running out a Stars & Scrubs roster.

But the problem is that their stars simply aren't very good at present.

Their Top 6 is some combination of Bichette-Vlad-Varsho-Springer-Kirk-Santander.

Vlad's really the only one that isn't underperforming or streaky. And as others have said, he's like the quietest 130 OPS+ there is out there.
uglyone - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#460391) #
not sure i agree there tbh.

this is more of a depth of average roster than a stars and scrubs roster.

the roster has only one elite player, but good average depth.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#460392) #
Bo’s underlying offensive numbers look pretty good this year, except for his ISO. Check out his Baseball Savant page. He has solidly rebounded from his awful 2024. His xwOBA is right in line with all of his good seasons before last year.
knuckeler - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#460393) #
"Vlad's really the only one that isn't underperforming or streaky. And as others have said, he's like the quietest 130 OPS+ there is out there."

Vladdy is definitely under performing, he is batting .274 and has only 7 Homers on pace for 22-23, that is definitely not good nor is it even ok.

He is getting paid to do much better than that, full stop.

I am beginning to think if this continues much longer than a week or two, coach Schneider is going to be the scapegoat here. Mark my words, I haven't been impressed with his decisions at all either and replacing him will be the first move management can make to turn this around.

JB21 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#460394) #
Vlad is a warm weather hitter, his April/May has been pretty good for his standards, I'm looking forward to seeing him perform in June/July/August.
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 25 2025 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#460395) #
Greenfrog,

This is not a glass half empty scenario. It's almost 1/3rd into the season and the Jays are definitely closer to the cliff. I think your feeling is on point but at the same time there could be a turn around if they change their manager (and also if they don't). This team is similar to what it was under Montoyo and it hasn't really gotten better. Can a manager change that, probably not but I'd rather try to increase the chances of success as it seemed to work when they replaced Montoyo with Schneider.
pooks137 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#460396) #
not sure i agree there tbh.

this is more of a depth of average roster than a stars and scrubs roster.

the roster has only one elite player, but good average depth

I agree the Stars & Scrubs designation doesn't fit perfectly.

It's more of an extension of our discussion in past thread re: all the hitters in the order behind Santander "fighting for their MLB lives" (ie. Not being MLB regulars).

On any given night, the Jays are only running out 3-6 MLB regulars at the top of their lineup in Bichette-Vlad-Varsho-Springer-Kirk-Santander. Followed by a string of bubble guys in Lukes, Clase, Straw, Clement, Barger, Heineman, etc.

When Varsho, Springer or Kirk sit, or Santander gets banged up, suddenly your bottom 6 is completely bubble guys (Clement is probably pretty close to a regular at this point, but isn't an MLB regular offensively this year).

vw_fan17 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 02:22 AM EDT (#460397) #
the roster has only one elite player, but good average depth.

And he just got put on the IL.


(a little bit a doomer feeling at this point due to the Leafs getting eliminated, and now this. If you hate negativity, stop reading)The beginning of the end was signing Vlad to that deal, I am convinced. This team is going to SUUUUUCK for a long time as a result, IMHO. 

At least the Leafs have been having regular season success.. This team isn't even going to have that. Santander looks totally lost at the plate - how do players come to TO and just fall off a cliff? Are our coaches that weird/different/bad? Bo is a coin flip - good day or bad day. Varsho is similar.  
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#460399) #
I don't think there's any real reason to get upset after this bad series.

Right now we're a .500-ish team and that'll probably continue as long as Scherzer and Santander are non-contributors. With those guys in the lineup and producing we could maybe expect solidly better results than we've had so far.


uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#460400) #
"On any given night, the Jays are only running out 3-6 MLB regulars at the top of their lineup in Bichette-Vlad-Varsho-Springer-Kirk-Santander. Followed by a string of bubble guys in Lukes, Clase, Straw, Clement, Barger, Heineman, etc."

but we have a large collection of bubble guys who either are producing averagish or project to produce averagish or both.


So far this year we have 10 guys with a wRC+ over 90, which is nice depth of average, and one of the guys under that is Santander who should be expected to be much higher. Looking at WAR, 13 guys are positive WAR and only 2 are negative, Santander and Wagner, and that shouldn't continue for Santander.

If you look at the last 1 calendar year, we've again got 10 guys over a 90wrc+, plus another just missing the cut (Barger 88) plus another who we should expect to be higher (Bichette 81). And again it's 13 guys with a solidly positive WAR and only 2 with a negative WAR (Stefanic and Sanchez).

If you look at projections there's 14 guys who preject over 100wrc+ plus 4 more over 89.


Meanwhile, there's only one hitter that projects higher than a good but not great 117wrc+, and that's Vladdy at 144.

The pitching is much the same, we have four starters who all look like solid starters (if Scherzer is healthy), but none that should be expected to look like #1 starters or even necessarily #2 starters.

The bullpen looks pretty solid and deep as well, but again lacks any proven lights out top guys too.



For me i see lots of average right through the roster and down in AAA, with only one actually dependable standout talent on the entire roster.
pooks137 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#460401) #
The beginning of the end was signing Vlad to that deal, I am convinced. This team is going to SUUUUUCK for a long time as a result, IMHO.

Care to elaborate on this point?

I feel somewhat similar as I felt that giving into Vlad was a mistake but am also content that all the "Will he or won't he?" drama is finally over. To me the Vlad signing was literally very expensive fan service rather than an astute baseball move.

Does the Vlad extension lead to long-term mediocrity because it allows Vlad personally to subconsciously not try as hard/get fat/fool around more/lose that competitive edge/get too complacent, etc?

Is it simply because it chews up too many budget resources inefficiently for two decades on a team where ownership until very recently hasn't had the stones to spend to put the team over the top like the big boys? Like the Carlos Delgado, early JPR era?

Or is it simply that overpaying Vlad was the safe corporate thing to do, so now you expect them to sit on their laurels for years to come without making any hard decisions either way?

dalimon5 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#460402) #
I believe I'm in the minority in my thinking that signing Vlad was not a corporate move for profits or acquiescence for fans. This was a baseball organizational move (different from on-field baseball move). Vlad was overpaid so the org had someone to build around and to anchor the offense since the alternative was to have zilch...nobody. It also allows the org to try to continue to bring in free agents to field competitive teams which would be hard without Vlad.

Of course they could have let Vlad, Bo and all upcoming free agents walk and then trade everyone else away and wait 2-5 years to be competitive again but evidently the ownership and FO decided that was not preferred.
greenfrog - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#460403) #
Let’s hope it pays off, because $500m with no deferred money is a lot to pay for a player who is on track for about 3.5 WAR in his age-26 season (he may heat up of course, as he did last year).
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#460404) #
Vladdy had a bit of a power outage to start the year, with 0 homeruns in his first 79pa, leading to a mediocre 102wrc+.


But in the 149pa since, he's had 7 homers and is back to an elite 149wrc+.
greenfrog - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#460405) #
It’s a good thing weaker stretches don’t count in a player’s overall stats.
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#460406) #
He also happens to have a 165wrc+ over the past calendar year (705pa).

I think he's pretty good.
Nigel - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#460407) #
I'm with you uo - In the past few months I've been struck by how "meh" (neither good nor bad) pretty much the entire organization is: FO, manager, run scoring, run prevention, prospects (they are all just sort of "ok"). I asked myself where could you reasonably look at the team and say that they were comfortably above average? I came up with only 2: center of the diamond defence (Varsho, Gimenez/Clement, the 2 C's) and maybe the burgeoning middle to high leverage relievers (Green, Fluharty, Little, Rodriguez, Garcia). Its actually a pretty hard organization to fix in that you can't point to one or two obvious problems and fix those. For example, firing the manager likely does very little for this team. This org needs an infusion of elite talent (FO, players or prospects) in a few places.
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#460408) #
Plausible Best Lineup:

Using this year's stats only:

* 1. LF Lukes 109pa, .358obp, 124wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 228pa, .382obp, 133wrc+, 3.4war/650
* 3. DH Springer 185pa, .361obp, 127wrc+, 1.4war/650
* 4. SS Bichette 238pa, .319obp, 103wrc+, 1.9war/650
* 5. CF Varsho 79pa, .215obp, 99wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 6. C Kirk 159pa, .327obp, 99wrc+, 4.9war/650
* 7. 3B Barger 105pa, .305obp, 98wrc+, 5.0war/650
* 8. RF Straw 90pa, .310obp, 94wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 9. 2B Clement 159pa, .301obp, 79wrc+, 3.7war/650

* B. UT Santander 193pa, .280obp, 74wrc+, -1.7war/650
* B. OF Clase 38pa, .324obp, 92wrc+, 1.7war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 143pa, .273obp, 67wrc+, 1.4war/650
* B. C Heineman 51pa, .412obp, 172wrc+, 14.0war/650

* X. UT Schneider 21pa, .333obp, 53wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Roden 84pa, .262obp, 52wrc+, 0.8war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 9pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Sanchez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, 0.0war/650

* X. UT Wagner 68pa, .284obp, 51wrc+, -3.8war/650




Using Past 1 Calendar Year stats:

* 1. LF Lukes 200pa, .364obp, 128wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 705pa, .396obp, 165wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 3. DH Santander 665pa, .308obp, 122wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 4. RF Springer 606pa, .332obp, 116wrc+, 2.1war/650
* 5. C Kirk 442pa, .324obp, 100wrc+, 5.1war/650
* 6. CF Varsho 413pa, .277obp, 94wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 7. 2B Clement 519pa, .291obp, 91wrc+, 2.7war/650
* 8. 3B Barger 312pa, .280obp, 88wrc+, 1.7war/650
* 9. SS Bichette 378pa, .291obp, 81wrc+, 0.7war/650

* B. OF Clase 74pa, .342obp, 109wrc+, 2.6war/650
* B. OF Straw 94pa, .308obp, 91wrc+, 4.8war/650
* B. IF Gimenez 565pa, .379obp, 69wrc+, 1.8war/650
* B. C Heineman 65pa, .385obp, 142wrc+, 12.0war/650

* X. UT Wagner 154pa, .314obp, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650
* X. OF Roden 84pa, .262obp, 52wrc+, 0.8war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 210pa, .329obp, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 83pa, .277obp, 103wrc+, 4.7war/650

* X. UT Schneider 327pa, .257obp, 58wrc+, -1.2war/650
* X. OF Loperfido 219pa, .242obp, 62wrc+, -0.9war/650
* X. IF Stefanic 133pa, .303obp, 65wrc+, -1.5war/650
* X. C Sanchez 99pa, .215obp, 13wrc+, -1.3war/650




Using Fangraphs Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. SS Bichette 437pa, .325obp, 114wrc+, 3.6war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero 461pa, .372obp, 144wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 3. DH Santander 437pa, .313obp, 117wrc+, 2.1war/650
* 4. C Kirk 314pa, .344obp, 114wrc+, 5.8war/650
* 5. LF Lukes 200pa, .339obp, 112wrc+, 2.9war/650
* 6. RF Springer 409pa, .326obp, 109wrc+, 2.1war/650
* 7. 3B Barger 257pa, .312obp, 104wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 8. CF Varsho 418pa, .292obp, 103wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 9. 2B Gimenez 390pa, .319obp, 103wrc+, 4.0war/650

* B. UT Wagner 105pa, .344obp, 111wrc+, 2.5war/650
* B. OF Roden 195pa, .336obp, 109wrc+, 2.0war/650
* B. IF Clement 228pa, .303obp, 96wrc+, 2.6war/650
* B. C Heineman 109pa, .316obp, 89wrc+, 4.2war/650

* X. UT Stefanic 19pa, .359obp, 111wrc+, 3.4war/650
* X. OF Schneider 52pa, .321obp, 106wrc+, 1.3war/650
* X. IF Jimenez 19pa, .334obp, 110wrc+, 3.4war/650
* X. C Bethancourt 22pa, .278obp, 92wr, 3.0war/650

* X. OF Loperfido 24pa, .295obp, 92wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Clase 48pa, .298obp, 89wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. IF Martinez 48pa, .277obp, 86wrc+, 1.4war/650
* X. C Sanchez 22pa, .284obp, 79wrc+, 3.0war/650

* X. OF Straw 52p, .303obp, 78wrc+, 1.3war/650
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#460409) #
yeah Nigel i agree that the defense is high-end in general.

You might be right about the bullpen depth - i'm comfortable that it's a solid group but tbh i don't follow all the bullpens enough to know whether our group is particularly special or not.


The lack of high impact players is why i was hoping to target one of the best of the best FAs this year, not just a couple pretty good ones. For example i'd much rather have signed Burnes than Scherzer+Santander.
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#460410) #
Jays wRC+ by batting order:


* 1. 109wrc+
* 2. 129wrc+
* 3. 58wrc+
* 4. 115wrc+
* 5. 104wrc+
* 6. 108wrc+
* 7. 79wrc+
* 8. 86wrc+
* 9. 97wrc+
pooks137 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#460413) #
Ouch, that 1-9 wRC+ chart sure suggests that it's really been Santander in the 3 hole with his 177 PAs of .568 OPS that's killing the offense.

The 79 wRC+ in the 7 hole is a more interesting failure by committee.

Clement is leading the charge there with 51 PAs, but actually isn't the problem hitting. 319 with an OPS well above 700.

Neither was Wil Wagner hitting .296 with an OPS of .700 on the dot.

The two culprits were 10 futile games from Barger with an OPS starting with a 4 and Alan Roden OPSing under 300.
vw_fan17 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#460415) #
My feeling about the Jays / Vlad (taking the "negative" view). And look - I'm a fan of data, but I'm lazy - I can't back up / prove much of this - it's mostly my gut feelings, so it's worth the paper it's printed on (unless you actually print it out - then it's worth less than that paper). They signed a youngish "superstar" for 15 years, when there's really not much to build around. And he's not much of a superstar if the best you're expecting is a couple of 6-WAR season for those $$
  • Bo is gone after this year (a foregone conclusion, IMHO) - maybe trade him for a prospect?
  • Santander is a complementary piece who so far is way, WAY below expectations. It's not there yet, but starting to feel like it could be Kendrys Morales part 2
  • Springer had a small resurgence, but is still mostly "dead money" for 1.5 years
  • Bassitt (our best pitcher so far) is gone after this year, Gausman gone after next
  • Berrios is not a staff ace
  • Scherzer is looking like he may never pitch again
  • Gimenez had a moment, but is looking like ~$20M down the drain for many more years (contract varies)
  • Varsho is Varsho - we control him for one 1.5 more years - but it all depends on his hitting - his defense will fall off some, his arm isn't great
  • Hoffman has either been overused or over-advertised. He has negative WAR right now - and we have him for 2.5 more years
  • We are paying market value+ for all our bigger pieces - we have almost no "surplus WAR" contracts, other than part-time pieces
  • Berrios is the only starter we have after 2026 who we can count on for "average" innings
  • Francis is looking pretty bad right now
On the positive side:
  • some of the 'scrubs" are playing ok. Heineman in limited action has been great, Kirk seems like a solid value player, but possibly his game calling is off / becoming predictable? Certain teams / players seem to be able to "hit at will" against us.
  • Straw is probably worth his $6-7M so far, which is unexpected
  • Lukes is a solid player, and I think we control him for some time?
  • Barger looks promising
  • A couple of relievers look good this year - they may flop next year
  • Manoah may have a resurgence? We have a couple of prospects that are looking good?
Can you build a team around Berrios, Kirk, Vlad, Gimenez and Barger? By 2027, we'll need 3 SP at minimum, a SS (unless Clement can handle?), probably two outfielders, unless Varsho's hitting improves as his defense falls off and we get him at a fair price. That's penciling in Lukes - if he disappoints, we may need a whole new outfield.

On the whole, the problem for me with the Vlad contract was timing - the team is/was on the down-cycle with lots of veterans getting worse and on expiring contracts. Then, to "double down" (just like in '16? '17? whatever year that was where we should have traded the vets) - we should have unloaded Vlad (and Bo if he hadn't imploded) last trade deadline for a haul, plus a bunch of the starters, etc. We got back quantity for some of pieces we did trade, and there may yet be a good player or two in there, but right now, IMHO, we're treading water with the 4th (or thereabouts) highest payroll in the league - and we're overpaying vs. performance on every one of them this year, it seems. Our best value contracts are players like Lukes / Heineman, etc, who aren't projected to have a full-time role. Sure, it's a gamble, but I bet we could have put out a team just as good as this one for $100M less so that you can pick up a couple of expensive contracts at the deadline if you're in it..

In some ways, this team is like the Leafs - overpay a few players before proving anything, then try to fill out the rest of the roster with scrubs. Only our "star" players aren't anywhere as good as the Leafs regular-season performance.
uglyone - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#460417) #
For me i don't get being upset about spending $35m longterm on Vladdy when it's obviously much more upsetting that we just spent $35m longterm on Santander and Gimenez.

pooks137 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#460418) #
On the whole, the problem for me with the Vlad contract was timing - the team is/was on the down-cycle with lots of veterans getting worse and on expiring contracts. Then, to "double down" (just like in '16? '17? whatever year that was where we should have traded the vets)

Thanks vw_fan17 for the detailed reply.

Pretty much agree with all the above.

So it's less about Vlad himself or the terms of the deal. Or even ownership.

It's more about making a huge commitment at the wrong time in the team's competitive cycle instead of making more unpopular but necessary difficult & creative decisions.

mathesond - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#460419) #
So, they would have been better off letting Vladdy go and waiting for another young superstar to come through the system?
vw_fan17 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#460421) #
I think that Santander / Giminez were bad in isolation, but because the team wanted to appear to be "doing something", they were kind of forced into finding something they could play up. And with all the premium free agents (Ohtani, Soto) eschewing the Jays' offers, there wasn't much else available. And only signing Vlad wouldn't have been enough.
As for the Vlad contract itself - I think it was too much $$ - maybe $380-420M was the right ballpark, whether that was less term or less $$. He's vastly overpaid for what he brings right now, and so far, seems very, VERY "unclutch" this season. But that's subjective and probably incorrect - but it often feels like he pads the stats in meaningless situations. It feels like Clement is way more likely to come through than Vlad in a late and close. Again - that's not researched, so likely to be incorrect.
vw_fan17 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#460422) #
Vlad wasn't a bad move if you want marketing. It was the wrong move (for that amount) if you want a competitive team. He's our Mike Trout, IMHO.
Nigel - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#460425) #
Lots of interesting comments here but I do think that there is some mixing of ideas here. A couple of things which colour what I am about to say - its been my view for well over a year now that : a) I wouldn't sign Vladdy to the sort of deal that they did (I think what you could have gotten back in a trade for Vladdy plus what you spend $35m a year on was likely more valuable than Vladdy) but I can understand the decision once "non on field performance" issues are taken into account; and b) trying to compete in 2025 was a mistake rather than acknowledging where the team was on the success curve (as vw notes - it's a mediocre team). In my view, the team should have been selling rather than buying the past two offseasons with view to being a contender again in 2026, or more likely, in 2027. But having said that, Vladdy is of an age and baseball revenues are going up at a rate that signing Vladdy to his current deal isn't really an impediment to being competitive in 2027. So, I think pushing chips in to try and compete in 2025 was a mistake but I don't think the Vladdy deal materially alters the go forward. Much of this is irrelevant though because Rogers hasn't shown much interest in having the team run with its place on the success curve as a driver of behaviour.
JB21 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#460426) #
He's our Mike Trout, IMHO.

Vlad is 26.

Trout OPS+
26 - 198
27 - 182
28 - 167
29 - 194
30 - 176
31 - 129
32 - 136
33 - 90


Vlad is going to crush but break down with injuries?
greenfrog - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#460430) #
I’m not sure Vladdy would have netted such a haul in prospects last summer or off-season. I can see why the front office extended him for both on-field reasons (say 50%) and marketing reasons (the other 50%). I think a lot of loyal fans were getting upset at the idea of him leaving via free agency or trade.

I think Nimmala and Yesavage could end up being the actual 5 WAR players in the late 2020s and early 2030s, with Vladdy being around a 2-4 WAR player at that point (even if he remains a decent hitter, his defense and base running will drag down his value).
vw_fan17 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#460435) #
Re: Mike Trout
I'm not predicting similar performance, but that he is the "most expensive" and arguably "best" player on the team (I'm not saying he's going to be sub-100 OPS+ or anything - but I think he'll top out in the 130s or 140s most years) - but that we may have 10 years of futility trying to find other players to build a TEAM with this FO.
In isolation, Trout was the best player in his prime, arguably top-10 or top-5 all-time or maybe best all-time. And he's made it to the playoffs once because the ownership has no clue about building a team.
dalimon5 - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#460443) #
There is never a wrong time to compete and I love that the Blue Jays won't accept the idea that they lost their chance and now have to rebuild and start all over. A lot of the views expressed here about timing seem predicated on budget shrinking. I fully expect the Blue Jays to remain over 230 million each year if not more.

If Bichette, Bassitt, Green and Scherzer all leave then the Jays free up 52 million and the following year over 65 million when Gausman, Springer and Berrios can go. That's a lot of money that can be spent on younger free agents.

Last point I would make is the Blue Jays are playing their worst baseball up to this point. Nowhere to go but up the rest of the way.
greenfrog - Monday, May 26 2025 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#460445) #
The Blue Jays farm system seems to be better this year. You could see a future rotation starting to take shape around one or more arms like Yesavage, Stephen, Rojas, Tiedemann. And an infield with Nimmala at SS and Vladdy at 1B. There are some future pieces to work with (more would be better, of course).
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