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Welcome to Steinbrenner Field. At least it's not the bloody Trop.

The Rays are puttering along, a couple of games below .500, with what looks like a slightly below average offence offset by being a little better than average at preventing the other team from scoring. It's not immediately clear how they do this - at first glance, they appear to have just one good hitter and just one good pitcher, neither of whom is exactly  a proven big time sort of guy.

The pitcher is tonight's starter, Drew Rasmussen, and Rasmussen has in fact always been quite a good pitcher for Tampa Bay - it's just that he's spent so much time on the IL that it's hard to regard him as someone to be counted on. This is his fifth season there, and while he's gone 21-15, 2.75 on their behalf, he's been able to give them more than 59 IP in a season just once. But he's taking the ball tonight, and he's reliably good when he does.

The hitter is first baseman Jonathan Aranda, who has spent the past three seasons going back and forth between Tampa Bay and AAA Durham. In 110 major league games, he hit .222/.309/.382 with 10 HR in 293 ABs. He had demonstrated three years ago, back in 2022, that he was much too good for AAA, but he didn't do much in his major league cups of the coffee, and the Rays didn't seem to have figured out just where he was going to play. He had mostly been a second baseman to that point, and Brandon Lowe was rather firmly entrenched at that spot for the major league team. SO rinse and repeat for 2023. And 2024. This time around, the Rays have put Aranda at first base with Yandy Diaz moving to the DH spot. So far, so good - but he's hitting .390 on his BallsInPlay, and that can't continue indefinitely.

Another comparatively new face in the Tampa lineup is third baseman Junior Caminero, the 21 year old from the Dominican, who held his own in a 43 game look last season. Caminero has hit into 14 GIDPs in just 45 games, which leads the majors, by quite a bit. Well of course it does - Caminero is on a pace to hit into 46 of the damned things by the time the season is over, which would completely obliterate the single season record (36, by Jim Rice in 1984.) So that's something to keep track of!

Oh, they got other guys. I know. Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe aren't hitting a whole lot yet, but that probably won't last forever. Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell - they haven't been very good but they'll probably pitch better.  Their pitchers as a staff don't strike out a lot of guys, but they don't walk many either. And their defenders don't make many errors and they turn the double play very well.

I'm sure they will do their best to be their usual irritating selves. But at least we don't have to put up with the bloody Trop.

Matchups

Fri 23 May - Lauer (1-0, 2.25) vs Rasmussen (2-4, 2.93)
Sat 24 May - Berrios (1-1, 4.19) vs Baz (3-3, 5.33)
Sun 25 May - Bassitt (4-2, 2.83) vs Pepiot (2-5, 3.99)
Toronto at Tampa Bay, May 23-25 | 35 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
pooks137 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#460288) #
I was expecting the Jays to put Santander on the IL today to bring up a fresh Buffalo arm to help protect Lauer after the bullpen was emptied last night.

Are there still roster limits on how many pitchers can be on the 26-man at one time?

Stefanic would be the easy cut because they aren't playing him, but they are already dangerously low on infielders with Gimenez & Santander unavailable. And it being harder to dispatch Clase now that he's finally contributed.
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#460290) #
The 13-pitcher limit is definitely in force.

The good news is that nobody in the pen except Urena pitched Wednesday, so there shouldn't be many who are strictly unavailable. Little threw 34 pitches, so I'd avoid him, and while I think he'd be available, I'd hope they can avoid going to Hoffman after a blown save yesterday.

There isn't much down on the farm. Easton Lucas to the rescue? Paxton Shultz? Is Urena optionable?
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#460291) #
In addition to Little and Hoffman, Rodriguez should be down too tonight. Garcia, Green, Fluharty, and Fisher are all very fresh though and should be able to get more than 3 outs. Urena's 35 pitches the other night were low-stress.
Nigel - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#460293) #
They really need Lauer/Urena give them 6-7 innings tonight. Sure, all but Little, Hoffman and Rodriguez are probably good to go tonight, but the pen issues will compound badly over the weekend if the non-Lauer/Urena arms have to give them 6 innings tonight (like Lauer's last start).
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#460296) #
The only optionable relievers the Jays have, it seems, are Little, Fluharty and Fisher. Urena is on a major-league contract, and Rodriguez's contract, iirc, doesn't allow the Jays to option him.

I think the Jays may try to get a couple innings out of Fisher today (he only threw three pitches last night) and then option him back to Buffalo and call up Schultz. If it's a close game and Lauer can give us four innings, I'd much rather see Fisher than Urena.
Kelekin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#460297) #
Lukes sitting at an .807 OPS with an even BB:K. You love to see it. Varsho with an .855 OPS despite a .239 OBP and 34% K rate. Despite the power, it's a pretty big indictment of the lineup that he's hitting 3rd as much as he has, but at least he's been performing.

Magpie - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#460298) #
Random question. Do any other teams have their leading RBI guy batting leadoff?
SK in NJ - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#460301) #
The only way Schneider lets Lauer/Urena go 6-7 innings is if the team is either leading or losing by a lot. No chance he avoids using high leverage relievers in the 5th or 6th inning if the game is close. I agree that would be the best course of action. In particular is Lauer is doing well he needs to be kept in the game and not pulled after 3 innings before of a pre-game decision.
Kelekin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#460302) #
My first thought was Ohtani, but Teoscar has 39 RBI.

Bichette is wasted in the leadoff spot, but it's worked out because the bottom of the order has over-performed compared to the top of the order.

Put Lukes in the leadoff spot! .374 OBP, baby.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#460307) #
I honestly feel that the emergence of Addison Barger may save the season and the outlook of the team moving forward.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#460309) #
so we get our heads just above .500, only 2gms out of all 3 wildcard spots, with things starting to feel a little better all around.

and we get 3 series against mediocre to poor teams to get us through May, giving us the chance to go on an actual run and get ourselves into playoffs position heading into June.

seems like a great opportunity right now, but I'm far too scarred by our history in TB to feel anything but dread heading into this weekend.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#460310) #
The answer is staring you in the face, Magpie.
Magpie - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#460311) #
Yandy Diaz is hitting leadoff?

We live in strange and disturbing times.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#460313) #
Nathan Lukes has been an excellent platoon outfielder for 200 PAs in 2024-25; there's absolutely nothing that screams fluke. He hits for medium range pop, he hits line drives (29%) and he controls the strike zone like a fiend. Good defender in an outfield corner and a capable baserunner.

He is 30 years old and almost 31, and it is unusual that he's a far better player now then ever. A lower case Jose Cruz Sr., maybe.
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#460315) #
Santander sitting again. If they had put him on IL a week ago like a lot of us were calling for, hed be eligible to be off on Monday and Jays wouldn't be shorthanded. Just baffling decision making. He's hurt. Let him get better. This isn't a playoff game where he needs to gut it out.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#460316) #
“I was thinking about safety squeezing there, to be honest with you, just because of Varsh being that good of a base runner at 3rd and with the velo at the top.” - Schneider on Lukes’ game winning AB
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#460317) #
I’m not sure who thought Santander should have been put on the IL a week ago but I’m thankful he was not, considering he hit a big 2-run HR on Tuesday.
GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#460318) #
He's definitely a late-bloomer, but it's kinda crazy to look back at 2023 and see he spent about three months with the team and got all of 31 plate appearances. Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio were backing up Kiermaier/Varsho/Springer that year.
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#460319) #
Santander got a big HR in the 3-0 win but he also went 0-4 with 3 K's in a one run loss. Since May 15, he's only had 10 abs and is 2/10 with 7Ks. He should have been on the IL the entire time.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#460320) #
jerjapan was the first on the Lukes bandwagon (at least a year or two ago), if I’m not mistaken. He’s been championing him for a long time.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#460321) #
ahem.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#460322) #
"I was thinking about safety squeezing there, to be honest with you, just because of Varsh being that good of a base runner at 3rd and with the velo at the top.” - Schneider on Lukes’ game winning AB"

I appreciate Schneider's trolling game tbh.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#460326) #
Let's take a look at Lukes' career and see what might have happened.

Note: Lukes is a July baby so his age at all these levels shows him a full year older than june babies in the same year.


* Age 20 (A-): 18pa, .417babip, 147wrc+

Drafted in the 7th round by CLE (Shapiro?). No idea the financial issues there.

* Age 21 (A): 393pa, .349babip, 144wrc+
* Age 21 (A+): 94pa, .241babip, 44wrc+

Fantastic first year as a prospect though he struggled after the promotion.

* Age 22 (A+): 22pa, .500babip, 172wrc+
* Age 22 (AA): 404pa, .323babip, 100wrc+

Surprisingly quick promotion up to AA considering his struggles in A+ the year before. They must have liked him quite a bit as a prospect to have him essentially skip A+.

Held his own in AA at a very young 22. Not great but pretty good.

* Age 23 (AA): 484pa, .336obp, 106wrc+

Spent the whole year repeating AA, and again just held his own.

* Age 24 (AAA): 295pa, .260babip, 56wrc+

They pushed him up to AAA despite being only medicore in AA, and he struggled badly. I don't remember whether 2019 was effected by covid or not but he only got half a season in here.

* Age 25 - nada

An entire season wiped out by covid at a pretty critical time in his career. bad luck.

* Age 26 (AAA): 326pa, .335babip, 111wrc+

comes back from covid and has a very solid season in AAA, just not spectacular enough to get a call up. though that might have had something to do with his contract situation - he ended up as FA after this one solid but not spectacular AAA season at age 26 after having no 25yr old season and a terrible 24yr old half season. Jays pick him up as a FA.

* Age 27 (AAA): 484pa, .336babip, 114wrc+ - TOR

Another very solid but not spectacular season in his first year with the jays org.

* Age 28 (AAA): 222pa, .401babip, 146wrc+
* Age 28 (MLB): 31pa, .278babip, 66wrc+

Obviously the babip had a big part in his huge jump in AAA production, but it was far from the only thing - he put up by far his best bb/k ratio of his career this year (7.7%/11.3%), and had solid enough power too (.163iso) abd the highest linedrive percentage of his career too.

I forget why he didn't have a ton of playing time this year - i have to think this was an injury?

* Age 29 (A): 12pa, .571babip, 132wrc+
* Age 29 (AAA): 231pa, .378babip, 135wrc+
* Age 29 (MLB): 91pa, .319babip, 132wrc+

Yeah must have been a serious injury that cut his 2023 short amd delayed the start of his 2024. tbh i don't remember. But he put up another very good year and showed that the babip in AAAA might be showing some aspect of skill and not just luck. Also maintained very very good bb/k rates again in AAA.

Then he surprisingly carried that very good performance up to MLB with him. Didn't even need elevated babip or iso to put up that mlb line, though surprisingly he put up better bb/k rates (11.0%/9.9%) than he ever had in his milb career.

* Age 30 (AAA): 102pa, .269babip, 135wrc+

And now he's maintaining that level for a 2nd year, even while the babip dropped. He's had a bit of a power spike but not a huge one. And he's mainted elite bb/k rates - (12.7%/12.7%) again.

So yeah while he deserves his mlb line and should sustain most of it, there's definitely reasons to think he'll drop back closer to an average hitter than a very good one - i.e. it's just hard to believe that he's suddenly figured out how to put up better bb/k rates in the bigs than he ever did in the minors.



BUT, at least we see some clear reasons why he might have been skipped over....

- covid break hit him at maybe the worst possible time. just a crucial point in his career.
- and then, when he did break out in AAA with the jays, he sutained a major injury apparently which delayed his arrival another year or more.

GabrielSyme - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#460330) #
Lukes never went on the IL in 2023; he was up with the major league club for nearly three months and just was given almost no playing time.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#460332) #
Lukes is up to a 139 wRC+ with his 1/1 so far tonight.

Even if he cools down, he could be a decent fourth OF later this season with Roden / Varsho / Springer starting in the outfield.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#460333) #
well, hopefully Lauer can get through the bottom of the order unscathed next inning, and then i guess he calls it a night.

up to our bats to do something now.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#460335) #
scathed it is, then.
greenfrog - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#460336) #
Down by 3 in the Trop is like being down by 4 in other ballparks. Not insurmountable, but a challenging deficit to overcome (especially when your pitching plan is Lauer-plus-bullpen).
Glevin - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#460337) #
I will say Clase is having much better better abs this week. Lineup depth is so much better than it was in April.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#460338) #
i hate playing here so so much.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#460339) #
this fisher guy seems pretty good to me.
Ryan Day - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#460340) #
I'm rooting for Clase to develop, because he looks like he could be a really fun player to watch.  It's been ages since the Jays had an actual baserunning threat.
soupman - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#460341) #
Isn’t the Trop destroyed and the game is in thenYankee’s spring facility?
soupman - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#460342) #
Skenes ran up his pitch count and only made it through six. The Pirates turned around and gave up the lead the next inning.

Is there a package the Jays can muster to get him?
Chuck - Friday, May 23 2025 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#460343) #
Yandy Diaz is hitting leadoff?

Hasn't he been their regular leadoff hitter for a couple of years now?

Toronto at Tampa Bay, May 23-25 | 35 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.