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So that was a fun day.  Let's go over what happened.  Also to avoid the new game thread getting full of trade review this gives us a new area to do it in.

Added fWAR 2025 Proj fWAR Additional Years 
Ty France 0.6 0.1 0
Shane Bieber -- 0.7 0
Brandon Valenzuela -- -- 6
Louis Varland 1.0 0.2 5
Seranthony Domínguez 0.7 0.2 0
Totals 2.3 1.2 11

Dropped fWAR 2025 Proj fWAR Additional Years 
Will Wagner -0.1 0.1 6
Kendry Rojas -- -- 6
Khal Stephen -- -- 6
Alan Roden 0.2 0.2 6
Juaron Watts-Brown -- -- 6
Totals 0.1 0.3 30

For projected fWAR I did an average of all the projection systems they had listed. For additional years I limited it to 6 (if guys are called up part way through a year you could get a 7th or 8th or 9th year depending, but if a guy is bouncing like that odds are his value isn't much).

I listed everyone in the order they were listed on the Fangraphs transaction page (a great resource)

Other teams...
AL East
Other AL Contenders
So that is what happened.  I doubt any of us are big on what happened in the NL as it doesn't affect the Jays until the WS (please, please, please) or in interleague games (3 vs Colorado, 3 vs Dodgers, 3 vs Cubs all very soon, 3 vs Pittsburgh, 3 vs Miami, 3 vs Milwaukee, 3 vs Cincinnati still on the schedule as well).

So Rays the busiest, Yankees added a lot, Boston was sleeping while the O's took a big dump. Detroit redid their pitching staff, Houston is doing a back to the future thing, Seattle got the biggest bat, Texas did a lighter staff fix, LAA/KC trying to trick their fans while hoping a few teams ahead of them falter.

The Jays now have this lineup when healthy (1 too many)...
Who Pos WAR 2025 Proj WAR
Alejandro Kirk C 3.4 1.3
Tyler Heineman C 2.2 0.3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 3.0 1.5
Andrés Giménez 2B 1.0 1.0
Bo Bichette SS 2.4 1.2
Ernie Clement 3B 2.0 0.4
Joey Loperfido LF 0.7 0.2
Daulton Varsho CF 0.6 0.8
Addison Barger RF 2.0 0.7
George Springer DH 2.5 0.9
Ty France 1B/DH 0.6 0.2
Myles Straw CF 1.0 0.1
Davis Schneider LF/2B 0.6 0.2
Nathan Lukes OF 1.1 0.4
Totals
12 5.3

And this pitching staff...
Who Role WAR 2025
Kevin Gausman SP 2.1
José Berríos SP 1.3
Chris Bassitt SP 1.7
Eric Lauer SP 1.5
Max Scherzer SP 0.2
Shane Bieber SP --
Alek Manoah SP --
Jeff Hoffman RP 0.3
Yariel Rodríguez RP 0.3
Seranthony Domínguez RP 0.7
Louis Varland RP 1.0
Brendon Little RP 1.1
Braydon Fisher RP 0.8
Mason Fluharty RP 0.3
Tommy Nance RP 0.2
Paxton Schultz RP 0.1
Yimi García RP 0.1
Nick Sandlin RP 0.0
Totals
11.7

Didn't bother with forecast WAR here as pitchers are so variable I didn't feel it was worth the effort. It'd most likely be 50% of what they did so far (1/3 of season left roughly with Bieber and Manoah being 100% crapshoots).  I put Garcia and Sandlin at the bottom as lord knows if either will throw another pitch this year.  And yes, I know I have waaay too many pitchers listed but we all know a few more injuries will happen, some guys will be dropped and others might be added in.
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99BlueJaysWay - Friday, August 01 2025 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#465184) #
Thanks for this work, John. Nice to have everything linked in one place.

Like others I wanted more big names, but after looking under the hood I am excited by the pitching adds.

It still remains to be seen if anyone on the IL in the minors can be helpful in 2025, of if they’re all looking at contributing in 2026.
hypobole - Friday, August 01 2025 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#465197) #
FG on the Varland trade and other Twins stuff.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-blow-it-all-the-way-up/
dalimon5 - Friday, August 01 2025 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#465199) #
Yeah great job John. I was going to say post it sooner next time (: but clearly this took some time to put together.
John Northey - Saturday, August 02 2025 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#465224) #
Something to factor in as well - by fWAR the Jays are 3rd in ML for non-pitcher WAR (Cubs #1, NYY #2, Dodgers #4 - only 4 over 20 fWAR), but in pitching they are #22 (Cubs #25 are the only contenders lower than the Jays there). The pen was #14, rotation #25. Kind of explains the focus on pitching I'd say.

Now 6 guys had negative WAR as starters - 4 with under 7 IP (Urena, Turnbull, Rodriguez, and Fisher) while 2 had 19/64 IP (Lucas, Francis) - I'd be surprised if any of those guys start a game again this year. Paxton Shultz was the only sub 10 IP guy who had positive fWAR (0.1 in 4 2/3 IP over 2 starts). 4 of the 5 in the current rotation have xFIP of 3.63 to 3.91, while Berrios is at 4.32. IE: Not much to divide them right now. Gausman's didn't budge with tonight's game (3.92 xFIP for the game tonight, keeping overall at 3.91).

Basically, you can throw a dart at a dart board to determine which guy would be used if the Jays make the playoffs or who you want to pull from the rotation at this point and you'd make a perfectly valid choice imo. Bieber and Manoah each could be #1's going into the playoffs but we won't know unless someone goes down as there are only so many starts left and I don't see anyone being pulled from the rotation. Now, Scherzer has been looking better with each start pretty much so he might pull away from the pack as the season winds down (best K/9, 2nd best BB/9, 2nd highest FB velocity of the starters but also the worst HR/9 outside of Francis).

So, what to do - Lauer by traditional measures has been best (3.25 ERA as a starter, next best is 3.84 for Berrios) but also has the shortest track record of success (signed out of the Korean league last winter). Not an easy set of choices coming up.
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