When Gimenez and Springer return from injury, there will be a roster crunch. Buddy Kennedy will be released but who is the second player? I assume it would be one of Joey Loperfido or Davis Schneider, although neither deserve it. Of course, it will only a matter of a few weeks as they would most likely get recalled when the rosters increase in September.

Ty France is a logical candidate to get cut, but maybe that looks like a jerk move when he's riding a 950 OPS, even if it's a small sample size boosted by Coors.

Cavan Biggio signs on with the Angels after being purged from the Royals 40-man with trade deadline activity.

Genesis Cabrera was outrighted off the Pirates roster, the third MLB club to let him go this year.

I was puzzled but not terribly moved when Atkins non-tendered Cabrera last winter. Considering he was one of the few serviceable arms in 2024 in a trainwreck of a historically-bad pen.

But it seems that Atkins was right in the end on this move as well.

Cabrera had 5 years, 11 days service time coming into 2025. It's mostly a technicality since he's a journeyman type now, but it seems unlikely that he'll have enough time on 26-man rosters this year to qualify for FA if anyone picks him up again.

Meaning a team would likely have the option of tendering him a contract again for a final arb year if they were so inclined if they liked his late season performance.

France is the guy who should get cut. He just isn't good but I think the Jays would probably send someone down who has options until September rosters expand.

The pitching matchups all favor the Dodgers IMO. Hitting will likely favor the Jays. Looking forward to the lineups to see.

pooks137 - you got me thinking about last years nightmare pen. Going by games in relief from most on down...

• Cabrera - released Nov 4, Mets until released May 27, Cubs until June 24, Pirates until Aug 7 (sent to AAA, he can refuse it), next? 72 ERA+ in 28 IP.
• Pop - released Apr 2, Seattle until July 2, Mets until July 10, Cubs now. 28 ERA+ in 6 2/3 IP. Mostly in minors this year.
• Chad Green - released Aug 3 75 ERA+
• Little - got better, 109 ERA+ in '24, 154 in '25 and has appeared in 4 more games this year than last already.
• Trevor Richards - traded last summer, FA, Cubs until May 3, Royals until June 13, Arizona now. 59 ERA+ in 5 2/3 IP this year vs 37 2/3 in AAA (5.97 ERA)
• Erik Swanson - Released June 23, 29 ERA+ in 5 1/3 IP no one else has signed him yet.
• Nate Pearson - Cubs still have him, 37 ERA+ 12 2/3 IP 35 2/3 IP in AAA 2.27 ERA there. Just recalled to majors.
• Tim Mayza - released last summer, with the Pirates now 9 1/3 IP 3 R allowed.
• Ryan Burr - hurt, got into 2 games, hurt again.

That covers everyone with 30+ games in the pen last year. Glad the Jays kept Little but the rest have been pretty much chum so far. Mayza showing hope, Cabrera the only one with 20+ IP outside of Little.

Mayza showing hope

Well, the Pirates are hoping he will make it back to the mound before the year is over. He's been out since April with a lat strain.

Hmm. Jays have 16 guys with 100+ PA so far, Loperfido will reach it as well if he is healthy (still not on IL, at 79 PA), no one else has 35 PA (32 for Jimenez is next) so I doubt anyone else will get to 100. Is that high or low? 16/17 guys with 100+ PA? 16 last year, 10 in '23, 13 in '22, 15 in '21, 10 in '20* 16 in '19, 15 in '18, 14 in '17, 14 in '16, 16 in '15. Seems 14-16 100 PA guys is the normal around here.

FYI: Looking at the 2020 team the WAR leaderboard is buried in hats that aren't Jays - only Vlad, AJ Cole, and Bo are still listed with Jay hats. The rest of the top 12 have other hats (most recent team or team they are most associated with for Ryu). Lots of churn since then.

DOH! Good catch Magpie - forgot to check when Mayza pitched, just assumed he was in the minors and called up recently. Obviously a bad assumption.

"but who is the second player?"

It's either going to be France or Loperfido. Schneider provides something that the team doesn't have off the bench (RHB that can hit LHP) so he's not going anywhere. That leaves France and Loperfido. If my hunch is correct, then Clement is going to be starting at 3B the rest of the way (vs RHP and LHP) even when everyone is healthy, which means an OF of Lukes-Varsho-Barger with Straw as the 4th OF. In that scenario, I could see them preferring to keep France as another RHB and someone who could cover 1B. It sucks, and would be unfair to Joey who did nothing to lose a spot, but that could be how it shakes out.

The alternative is Springer/Gimenez come back, and the Jays decide to start Loperfido in the OF vs RHP with Barger at 3B and Clement on the bench. At that point, France becomes the obvious candidate to drop. Clement-Straw-Schneider off the bench gives them 3 RHB to complement the 5 LHB they'd have in the lineup, and all of those 3 (at least this season) hit LHP a lot better, whereas France is more split neutral.

Ultimately, the logical player to drop in any scenario is France. He hasn't been good in years, and while maybe Popkins can do something with him to improve his performance (or maybe his actual numbers start regressing towards his much better xwOBA eventually), I'm not taking that chance with 2 months left to go in a season where the team could win the division. If he was acquired as cover in case Springer's concussion issues are more serious than expected (sadly something that might be the case) then that's different. If/when Springer returns, then it should be a no brainer on who they let go.

Loperfido still seems the flukiest to me.

And i think they think there might be something easily fixable in France. They probably want to give him a real chance.

Fangraphs Rest of Season wRC+ projections:

1B Guerrero 145
SS Bichette 119
C Alejandro 116
DH Springer 115
LF Lukes 110
RF Santander 110
3B Barger 109
2B Schneider 105
CF Varsho 102

UT France 102
IF Gimenez 96
IF Clement 96
C Heineman 92

UT Kennedy 95
OF Loperfido 94
IF Jimenez 93
C Sanchez 70

OF Clase 80
OF Straw 74


Straw's defense keeps him on the playoffs roster most likely.

The battle for Santander's spot is gonna be between France and Loperfido. It'll be a more interesting battle than most think imo. If Santander ever comes back then both are likely gone.

Playoff roster will be challenging, in a good way. If all are healthy

• Locks: (10) 1B:Vlad, 2B: Gimenez, SS: Bo, 3B: Barger/Clement, CF: Varsho, DH: Springer, 4th OF: Straw, C: Kirk 2nd C: Heineman
• Solid: (3) LF: Loperfido, RF: Lukes, LF/2B: Schneider
• If healthy will be there: LF/RF/DH: Santander
• Backups: 1B/DH: France, OF: Clase, IF: Jimenez/Kennedy/Stefanic

I have trouble seeing how you demote/bench Lukes or Loperfido or Schneider for France (limited to 1B/DH and needs to be run for every chance you get). His best OPS+ ever was a 133 in '20 followed by a 128 and 125 the next 2 years. Lukes is the weakest vs him at 114. I see Straw as a special case (speed/defense despite his 79 OPS+ - both can be very valuable in the playoffs). He is a decent fill in for while Springer is hurt, but once Springer is back I see no reason to keep him on the roster unless it is September and you have the extra slot.

LF Lukes
DH Springer
1B Guerrero Jr.
SS Bichette
RF Barger
CA Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Clement
2B Gimenez

I'm almost certain that's going to be Schneider's go-to lineup against RHP if/when Springer and Gimenez come back (minus Santander). So you can certainly make the case that France makes more sense from a roster standpoint than Loperfido in that scenario, especially since they wouldn't "lose" Loperfido, he'd just be sent down (whereas they would lose France if they dropped him).

If they think France is fixable, and Popkins has been a miracle worker this season so they may not be wrong if that's what they think, then I could see them going that direction. As long as they are ready to cut bait if he continues to look washed, then I guess you could live with that.

Ideally, Santander comes back sometime in September, and the Jays can run out their full lineup all healthy at the same time. Would be nice.

Ali Sanchez claimed by the Red Sox.

If that means Narvaez to the IL, it's not good news for Boston.

August 8 and folks are daydreaming about October.

I would expect a lot of baseball fans to be dreaming about October in early August. Perhaps not White Sox or Pirates fans, but still...

It would be nice to see the Red Sox cool off again so that every night for the Jays isn't "must win"/scoreboard watching.

The Yankees collapse has been glorious & couldn't have been scripted better. Same with Tampa's similar collapse, as they were neck & neck with Toronto when New York first came to town for the historic 4-game sweep. But Boston getting red hot right as the Jays ran out of gas in Baltimore & KC wasn't expected.

The Jays are a fun-but-flawed team. Also one that seems difficult to improve internally. Springer's return is desperately needed to lengthen the lineup. They also have a quandary that their rotation is mediocre but they also somehow don't have an opening to slot in prized pickup Shane Bieber.

The pen is suddenly deep but still not lockdown or scary.

Gimenez is close to returning. But besides elite defense at 2B (and some actual base stealing ability if the quad & ankle are 100%), has been an awkward fit on this roster from Day 1.

There's not much left in terms of reinforcements on the 40-man at AAA (except a forgotten Jonatan Clase & a newly injured Leo Jimenez).

This team is going to have to keep winning while filling out the bottom half of the lineup regularly with fringe starters like Lukes, Loperfido, Heineman, Straw, France, etc.

Connor Wong still has a milb option and hasn't hit well. They could send him down unless Narvaez's knee is a major concern. I still think the Jays should sign Austin Barnes and stash him at AAA.

Is Lukes fringe or a decent regular this year? He has a 117 wRC+ despite a low BABIP (.267). 1.5 fWAR / 1.6 bWAR in 296 PA. He has hit lefties well in his occasional PA against them.

He’s not Steven Kwan, but neither is he Raimel Tapia. He’s been solid for the Blue Jays in 2025.

I agree, greenfrog. If you compare Luke's numbers and Kirk's, they're almost identical across the board, except Kirk has 60 more PA.

Is Lukes fringe or a decent regular this year?

He's fringe in the fact that he's a 31 y/o tweener corner outfielder with 122 career MLB PAs coming into 2025.

His 2025 performance has been awesome and he should be starting vs. RHP until proven otherwise.

But he has no proven track record & no guarantee of ongoing success even as an average MLB corner OF.

He also has no standout skills beyond seemingly elite BB/K contact & zone control.

It's currently a nice package, but his margin for error is also very thin. He's hit for power recently, but isn't known fot it. His defense isn't good enough to consistently play CF. He also doesn't have enough speed to steal bases or be a pinchrunner.

I agree with that. That is why I was hoping for Kwan to be acquired at the trade deadline. When the World Series is on the line this year and the lineup turns over, I would have preferred to see Kwan coming up ahead of Springer, Vlad, Bo. But you can’t have everything and Lukes has had some big PA this year in any event.

Schneider gave an injury update on Sportsnet about Springer, Gimenez, Santander, Bieber. Sounds like continued incremental gains / cautious optimism for the first three, and general optimism about Bieber’s progress.

Gimenez playing with Buffalo again, no Springer.

Imo Lukes' lack of mlb opportunity came down mostly to bad covid timing and some bad injury timing.

His numbers have consistently called for more mlb opportunity and his success shouldn't be a big surprise. His milb performance wasn't only good, but rock solid - no real weaknesses or worry spots to scare you off.

What's been a nice surprise from watching him everyday, tho, has been his scrappiness - he's a battler for sure.

Lukes is sort of in the same position Ernie Clement was a year ago.

He's a de facto regular due to performance & lack of better options.

But he doesn't have the service time to be declared a MLB regular yet because he's only been doing it competently for 4-5 months since finally being given the opportunity.

There's more talks about how aggressively Boston has been stealing signs.

Othani has 39 bombs, but nobody else has reached 20 yet. Their 7th hitter Conforto is hitting .191. Betts and Edman have 88 OPS+.

The Dodgers seem to have the edge in starters, but it might just look this way because of where they play.

Say, I was thinking... (scary I know) what is the median for each position in wRC+ vs the Jays likely options? For median I take the 15/16th teams wRC+ and go for the middle of them.

• C: 93 vs Kirk 117 & Heineman 155
• 1B: 105 vs Vlad 146
• 2B: 89 vs Gimenez 78 & Clement 101
• 3B: 88 vs Clement 101 & Barger 124
• SS: 101 vs Bo 126
• LF: 105 vs Loperfido 177 & Schneider 136
• CF: 96 vs Varsho 124
• RF: 109 vs Lukes 117
• DH: 109 vs Springer 148
• Also: France 169 (95 overall), Straw 81, all others who are still in the system are sub 70.

So above average wRC+ at all positions outside of Gimenez at 2B and for backups France & Straw. Can't complain until Santander returns (63 wRC+ over 209 PA - ugh).

Active Roster Team Bullpen Jays MLB Ranks

72 ERA- (T-#4)
75 FIP- (#3)
82 xFIP- (T-#2)

Active Roster SP Ranks

99era- (T-#17)
97fip- (T-#13)
96xfip- (#12)

Yanks turn to Williams again in extras....


...didn't turn out well.

What a catch by Schneider. Now close out the inning, Max.

That's a fun 1st inning.

Max is amped.

Barger with the clutch hit against a tough lefty. Love it.

A bunch of lucky dinks go for hits, and then a screamer into a DP. baseball.

If the postseason rotation had to be set right now, what would it look like? Could the manager even do this without offending anyone?

Bieber
Gausman
Scherzer
Lauer

Kershaw throwing 88s now in the 3rd. We should punish him.

Scherzer is rolling. I’m sure he wants to give the Blue Jays at least 6 innings. Let’s see if he can get that far.

Always the one inning with the big homer for Scherzer.

Not punishing Kershaw, who looks like a shell of his former self is super annoying.

This is not a game they should be losing

Bring on the Robo-umps! Varland should’ve had a strike out there. Not saying it’s the difference in the game, but these fringe pitches are such big calls during at bats, and too often they just get missed.

Ump added some salt to our wounds there.

Walking the number 9 hitter on four pitches is taking the razor to your own throat.

The thing about Little is that he throws so few pitches in the zone. At some point major league hitters are going to stop swinging.

Kershaw throwing 88s now in the 3rd. We should punish him.

Good luck with that.

It doesn't matter. And he still throws harder than Mark Buehrle ever threw in his life.

Pretty unlucky loss in a lot of ways but failing to capitalize on a ton of early chances seems to always come back to bite you.

Love that quote, thanks.

Now let’s get Springer, Gimenez, Bieber, Santander et al. on the field.

Guardians only a half game back of the Yankees for the final WC spot.

If Cleveland passes the Yankees today I can only imagine how nuts their fanbase will go. They were already sounding pretty rabid - demanding everyone pretty much be fired who can be - but if they fall out of a playoff slot entirely ... oh boy.

It sucks to have a baserunner doubled out on a caught ball. But at least our double play was a misread on a line drive from a guy wanting to score from second on a hit to outfield. Getting thrown out on a high pop up in foul territory seems much, much worse.

Mentioned a short time ago Ernie Clement is having a better season than Mookie Betts. Still is by both WAR's.

Also mentioned here a short time ago ( and at least a few dozen times before that) how poorly Ernie hits RH pitching. Of the 173 qualified this year, his 75 wRC+ ranks 165th. But not far ahead in 154th place with an 84 wRC+, after singling and homering off Max last night, is Mookie.

Career vs. RHP:

Betts .289/.365/.509
Clement .259/.294/.355
Clemente .307.346/.455

Shows how far Betts has fallen this year. His .243 BABIP says this year may just be an anomaly, but he turns 33 in a couple of months. Still has 7 years and about $230 left on his contract.

$230 million

Betts had some illness where he lost tons of weight (went from 175 pounds to 150) and got really weak this offseason so I expect that this is still affecting his performance.

Bill Shaikin was on 590 yesterday and said that Betts has said he hasn't been right since breaking his hand last year. He hit .263/.314/.497 over the final two months of 2024, though.

I'm more watching to see how Betts bounces back next year after the illness he suffered at the start of the season that sapped ~20lbs of muscle. I could easily see something like that leading to a lost year. I'd feel a bit better if there had been a definitive diagnosis, though. The theory I've seen is that it was a norovirus.

And the Yankees amazing bullpen blows another game. This is so fun to watch.

The worse thing the Dodgers medical staff did was approve him to fly to Japan at the start of the season when he was still tossing his cookies every 10 mins... I even posted at the time that he was potentially dooming his season.

The Yankees are winning 5-4 heading into the ninth inning, thanks to a Grisham solo home run B8.

Three up and three down for Bednar T9, Yankees win.

Anyone watching Bieber in the Bisons game?

Not watching, but Bieber’s final pitching line against a good AAA team was solid:

78 pitches, 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR allowed

A lot of people have written off Jimenez as a prospect. He had mono at the beginning of the year. As someone who had a bad case of mono in my twenties, I said at the time that that might easily make this season a write off. I’d wait till next year before drawing any conclusions on Jimenez.

Gimenez 4 for 5 and played all 9 innings at 2nd. Should be back Tuesday in Toronto.

I’d wait till next year before drawing any conclusions on Jimenez.

The problem being there's a very good chance there is no next year. He's already on his bonus 4th option year in 2025. No guarantee he survives 40-man crunches for the rest of the season & the winter. Also hard to imagine he makes the Opening Day 26-man roster unless many things happen/go wrong.

I'll beat my drum again that guys like Jimenez are victims of early Rule 5 protection cautiousness who start burning options long before they are major league ready. They end up as waiver fodder journeyman once they run out of options like we saw with Ali Sanchez earlier in the week. Out of options players are really hard to keep on the 26-man without being clear MLB regulars.

Many more fringe prospects are lost to 40-man roster machinations & running out of options than actually lost permanently to the Rule 5 draft. The Jays should only protect Top 100 type prospects, not potential relievers & league average infielders.

I see Jimenez fighting for the backup IF role in 2025. If one is available. If they resign Bo it is possible there is no slot open for him (Vlad-Gimenez-Barger-Bo-Clement) The OF will be packed to overflow unless someone is dealt (Springer-Santander-Varsho plus Loperfido-Straw-Lukes-Schneider-Clase (out of options)-etc.)

Yankee pitchers must've been scared - Stanton was in RF for most of the game.