Jeff Hoffman is 0/2 in his career vs. Adrian Houser, in case you were wondering. Houser has significant splits, so Springer, Guerrero, Kirk, and Clement should be the only RHB in the lineup tonight.

Fluharty and Nance are the freshest arms for tonight, with Rodriguez and Little not too far behind.

I'd like to officially call out Clement for having 1 RBI and being terrible over the last 10 games. Do your thing, Ernie.

Atlanta claims Manoah

Orelvis signs minor league deal with Nationals.

I was surprised to see that Houser turned into a bit of a pumpkin when he put on a Rays jersey, it feels like they normally get good results from everyone they pick up. Houser was at 2.10 ERA / 3.45 FIP in Chicago (69 IP) but has gone 4.65 ERA / 4.35 FIP in Tampa (50 IP).

Yandy Diaz is day to to day with groin strain. Would be helpful for Jays if Rays play it safe with him.

Schultz is technically the freshest arm.

Never mind, Schultz has now been optioned back and Bruihl is up. Weird.

Atlanta claims Manoah

While I’m still inclined to believe Nigel’s suggestion the other day that Manoah got his DFA for reasons not-limited to performance, it is interesting that great teams (such as the White Sox) did not make a claim. Good luck to him in Atlanta.

The lineup just seems a bit better with Lukes batting 2nd.

I have to say, one thing the Apple broadcast has over radio (and I assume TV as well) is the absolute absence of gambling ads and sponsorships.

Definitely prefer Lukes hitting second generally. Sees more pitches and Varsho is very all or nothing (would be hitting Varsho 4th though right now because Barger has been nothing or nothing recently.) Vladdy is just so lost right now.

Ugh—Simultaneous homers in both games by the wrong team.

Ernie is the best.

Ernie “The Babe” Clement’s WPA sucks.

Well ya, it does. Worst on the team among qualified hitters, and not many qualified guys in baseball get less RBI per PA. Huge hit there though!

Sorry Dewey.

I like that Westburg fella.

With the home team in charge of the humidor and the condition of the ball, the Yankees can make sure the call is nice and humid. The club obviously benefits from any slugfest. Three homers by the big guys against a very good pitcher. Sugano has no chance tomorrow.

Kirk and Vlad absolutely black holes right now.

Kirk's ABs still inspire confidence though, even if his swings don't.

At least we have Springer and Lukes.

Woohoo Lukes!

Bieber out after 5 makes it even more curious to send Sxhultz down (multi-inning guy) for a one-inniing guy in Bruihl. And Schultz is now burned barring an injury.

If they need to, Bruihl will pull a hammy after the game.

So far, I would have Loperfido over Santander on the post season roster. He looks unable to catch up to velocity right now.

Fluharty has had a pretty good year - notwithstanding the baseline ERA.

Curious - a critical game if you want to win the AL East but using Fluharty & Nance - two guys no one doubts are at the back end of the pen. Fluharty did well (2 shutout innings) and Nance got 2 of 3 out.

Santander's swing path is so long it's no doubt hard for him to hit velo when hes healthy.

Little with men on base always feels like a bad idea.

Morel just knew he was going to be walked. He didn’t even offer at anything.

Don’t get me wrong, I want the Jays to be leading going into the ninth inning, but the prospect of Hoffman is already making me nervous here in the eighth.

More runs, please.

Brainlock. Aranda.

Big out secured by Little to end the eighth inning.

If this is how the O’s are going to play, the Blue Jays might need to sweep this series to win the division.

Well here we go. I wonder if Apple will give us the percentage chance of Hoffman retiring them 123? That would be bliss.

Lol hoffman why do we do this

Hoffman... fake and injury and get out of there...

Hoffman looking horrible to start the ninth.

Wow. These are gifts from the ump, who is trying to save Hoffman from himself. But he could not.

Carrying on with Hoffman now deserves a loss.

The home plate ump has been helping Hoffman out big-time. And he still walked the #9 hitter. Two on, one out. Brutal.

The Jays obsession with Hoffman has to be studied. I don’t get it.

This man cannot be the postseason closer.

But…JAYS WIN!!!

Way to find a way, Hoffman.

Thank you umps.

At least Schneider can't run out Hoffman tomorrow. Right? Right???

The Blue Jays are lucky Hoffman didn’t blow the game. The ump called about three or four pitches strikes that looked to be balls. And Hoffman threw a few extremely hittable pitches that somehow weren’t crushed.

But to Hoffman’s credit, he did make a good pitch to get Diaz to ground out to end it.

Hoffman as the post season closer is still a certainty. Maybe that’s right maybe that’s wrong. Drawing big picture conclusions is tricky. Sticking with Hoffman tonight (he was hot garbage from pitch one) will draw rave reviews about how smart Schneider was and how negative the fanbase is. Laughable - that was just luck with a decent assist from the home plate ump

I guess Springer's conspiracy theory of the umpires wanting the Yankees to win was debunked tonight. Hoffman owes that umpire a gift basket. Again, why the Jays seem to think Hoffman is an established closer when he has exactly zero seasons as a full time closer in his career in mind boggling. You would think he has Kenley Jansen's resume with the way they are letting the team live or die with him in the 9th.

Jays lose, complaints dominate. Jays wins, complaints dominate.

Win two more games and they have the bye. I don't mind Hoffman is a closerish role but you need to be able to see if he has nothing very quickly and they should have been able to see that probably when he was warming up and certainly right away when he came into the game.

The thing is, when Hoffman has been on this season, he has been really good. Overpowering 97-98 MPH FBs located well, tight sliders low and away, good split/change. But he is not that pitcher at the moment. Now he’s just trying to survive each outing, someway, somehow.

Thank you dalimon. I certainly appreciate you policing the appropriate level of positivity:)

Big picture, the Blue Jays beat Tampa and an annoying pitcher in Houser. Great outcome and thank you overachiever Nathan Lukes.

Two more games to go.

Well, a win is a win is a win. First place in the AL overall with 2 games to go - who back in April wouldn't have gladly taken this? After April 30th the Jays were 14-16 3 1/2 games out of first. May 28th 27-28 8 games out of first place. Moved into a tie for first on July 2nd, 1st alone on July 3rd, back to tied on September 24th and will be tied going into the final 2 games. Guaranteed 2 home games in the playoffs, minimum. Who wouldn't have jumped for joy at this in late May or earlier?

My point is - enjoy this time. We don't get it every year, these ain't the Dodgers. After this year we might lose Bo, Bassitt, Bieber, Scherzer, plus minor helpers France, IKF. With Varsho, Gausman, and Springer free agents post 2026. So no matter what this team will be different in '26 and even more different for '27. This is a special team, lets enjoy this. Even if we had to miss tonight's game on TV (bloody Apple TV).

On the bright side, the Jays now have Varland, Rodriguez, Fisher, and Dominguez fresh for tomorrow, with lefties available too. Just keep em in the game, Trey.

Boyle has normal career splits too, so same lineup tomorrow, or will Kirk sit for the crucial day game? Perhaps Loperfido will get a start.

If the Tigers win the next 2 they could still finish ahead of Boston, assuming Cleveland also wins the next 2.

Boston doesn't care what happens at this point and will be resting their top starters while Skubal will start on Sunday.

Nobody else is really close to being the closer if Hoffman doesn't close.

"Nobody else is really close to being the closer if Hoffman doesn't close."

Yesavage?

Berrios to the IL is interesting as he is la machina. The guy who never goes on the IL.
Still 3 years on his contract.

Seattle lost so now they are 2 back of the Jays with 2 to go and the Jays have the tiebreaker so now it is just the Jays vs Yankees for who gets the best record in the AL and the AL East title with the Jays having the tiebreaker.

If each of the Toronto and Yankee games were 50/50 prospects the Jays would be 11/16 or 68.75% likely to win the AL now. Since both Toronto and the Yankees are more likely than 50/50 to win each game it actually makes the Jays more likely than that. If each team were 2/3 likely to win each game than the Jays are about 70.37% likely to win the AL now. If each team were 3/4 likely to win each game the Jays would be about 73.047% likely to win. 4/5 likely would imply 75.68% likely chance for the Jays. And obviously if you continue to extremes 100% likely for each games maps to 100% chance for the Jays to win the AL.

Even if you make the Yankees more likely than the Jays, say the Yankees 3/4 to win each game with the Jays 2/3 likely to win each game, the Jays are still 64.583% likely to win the AL. Even if the Yankees were 4/5 to win each game with the Jays 3/5 to win each game, the Jays would still be favored 53.92% to win the AL.

So basically the Jays should be roughly a 2:1 favorite to win the AL now. But it sure would be nice to do it tomorrow and leave the last day a chance to be low stress for all.

So is the only scenario where Gausman doesn't pitch on Sunday is if the Jays clinch today? I assume if the teams win or lose today and are tied going into tomorrow, the Jays will start him to try to win the division. However, if the worst happens and the Jays lose and Yankees win, would the Jays still start Gausman in the hope for a win and a Yankees loss?

With the rotation decimated and Scherzer pretty shaky lately, it would seem that the Jays really need to clinch the division, or be starting the Wild Card round with Lauer or another bullpen day.

Hopefully we win today and the Yankees lose and the last day doesn't matter, but if the worst comes to the worst and we lose and Yankees win, I think you still start your best starter for the last day of the season as the championship percentage is increased so much by getting the bye and homefield advantage and that is worth much, much more than resting the pitcher.

Unless you know the result of the Yankee game ahead of you. But if the Yankees are even 15% likely to lose the last game, you have to go for it in your last game. Skipping a round, and home field throughout the AL playoffs is just too big a prize.

If Jays lose today and Yankees win, I would not be pitching Gausman on Sunday. Sure, they might be able to catch them but with game one on Tuesday, it just isn't a risk worth taking because if Jays don't catch the Yankees, who is their game one starter? Bullpen day?

"overachiever Nathan Lukes"

Lukes is actually hitting below his preseason projections.

"Nobody else is really close to being the closer if Hoffman doesn't close."

I mean Hoffman is the worst pitcher on the team tho.

I would still call Lukes an overachiever, given the magnitude of yesterday’s game-winning home run and the 31-year-old journeyman minor leaguer’s overall contributions this year (1.6 WAR in 432 PA) for $767k.

I would start Heineman today - he's actually more valuable on offense right now especially with his ability to bunt (and runs better). Defensively, there's not much of a drop. Kirk's probably playing with a bone bruise in his hand from that foul ball.

I'd say Toronto is more like 25% to go 2-0. The offense is still bad, save for Springer and occasionally Varsho.

And Yesavage's commamd/control has been very good one game and not very good another. Rays have also already faced him, which swings it further to their favor... the stress of 40,000+ and likely knowing the Yankees have already won their game will be a lot for the rookie. And Boyle recently owned the Jays (and later Boston).

And it's going to be Christmas in September for New York because they're going to light up Sugano like a Christmas tree.

Over his last 13 games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .184/.231/.204 — by far the lowest OPS (.435) he’s ever managed over a 13-game span."


Jonah Birenbaum on twitter. He's been worth - 0.5 WAR in those 13 games which 164/166 in baseball. Really bad timing for your worst ever stretch.

Maybe worst of all for Vlad is that in this period, he's 109/112 in qualified hitter in exit velocity! It's not bad luck, he's just been horrible and it matches the eye test.

Vladdy isn’t going to be in a slump forever. He might even break out of it today.

Sugano may get crushed. But that is not a guaranteed outcome. This is baseball we’re talking about.

I'm with Glevin. I don't see how the Jays can start Gausman if they are one game back going into Sunday. You're counting on a Baltimore win not to burn Gausman for the Wild Card Round and it's not as if it's a guaranteed win with Gausman. I think you have to save him for the Wild Card Round.

If the Jays are tied, it's still a gamble, but a different one.

Friday September 26: A Toronto win and a Seattle loss means it’s just the Yankees left to defeat for the AL crown.

Magic number: 2.

Games remaining: 2.

Vlad's exit velocity is 84.9 since 13 Sept. That tells me it's probably a physical issue. Even when he's hitting the ball into the ground and not getting xbh, he's always still had the big exit velo numbers.

How are his batting practice sessions looking?

Agreed, Michael. I would start Gausman tomorrow whether the Jays win or lose today. The prize of skipping a round is well worth taking the shot, and I have confidence in a Lauer+ bullpen day for Game 1 need be.

That's crazy to me. The playoff series is 3 games in 3 days. If you go bullpen day, your bullpen is completely shot the entire series. If you trust the bullpen enough for game one, why not trust it to win on Sunday where you have an off day a day later?

It’s a legitimate question, I think. Let’s say Sunday is the deciding game with respect to the AL East title and the bye to the ALDS, and Gausman gives you a 60% chance of winning that game, whereas the bullpen gives you a 52% chance of winning the game.

Arguably, securing the bye is important enough that it would be worth starting Gausman, even if there is a 40% chance of a loss and a WC berth.

That post has a high chance of looking foolish.

Judge and Stanton homers. 2-0 NYY...

3-0. And Cam is off to a good start for the Yankees. Likely win for New York.

Judge had a sky-high 243 wRC+ in September entering this game — and he is 1/1 with a home run so far.

Looks like the Blue Jays bye hopes will come down to some combination of good performances by Yesavage today, and Gausman and/or Bradish tomorrow.

The Yankee defense is weak enough where I would not count out a Baltimore comeback.

The defense got better when they added McMahon.

Bases loaded for Judge in the fifth (one out)

5-0, turning into a blowout. ESPN says 98.2% chance of Yankees win.

Single and sac fly to make it 6-0. Feels like this one is over, but I guess anything is possible.

I'm with Glevin. If the Jays lose and Yankees win today, then you don't pitch Gausman tomorrow. The division would no longer be in your hands in that scenario. You'd have to depend on Baltimore to win tomorrow, and that's not worth burning your best starter in the regular season and not having him available for the WC round.

Obviously if the Jays and Yankees are still tied after today, then Gausman is 100% starting tomorrow and you live with the consequences, win or lose. In that scenario tomorrow's game would basically be the WC round. They'd have a chance to go right to the DS with a win. If Gausman loses in that scenario then you just go with Opener + Lauer on Tuesday, but the latter is what you settle on, not what you plan for.

I basically agree with SK’s post. The Blue Jays may well need to win out to earn the bye. That is doable with two games left.

However, I *might* consider starting Gausman tomorrow even if the Yankees win today and the Blue Jays lose today. Bradish has been great this year (2.25 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 3.02 xFIP). Tough call.

Can't agree with this at all. Gausman should start tomorrow no matter what happens today. Go for the division. It's way worth it. Anything can happen with Balt and NYY. Don't get cute.

Good job Yesavage. Scoreless first and I love that he kept Chandler off the bases this time.

Ernie is the best. What a batting order by John.

But the WPA

It is funny when you feel more confident with Clement or Giménez than with Vlad or Kirk over these past couple of weeks. Go team go!

Huge hits by Ernie and Gimenez. Was looking like another wasted opportunity.

Barger helped set the tone that inning. The more players that heat up, the better.

Very impressive that Trey has been able to shrug off the infield hits and error and get out of these jams.

On the broadcast, they have said that Schneider confirmed Gausman is pitching tomorrow one way or the other. Only difference will be how long he goes

Fantastic outing by Yesavage. Couldn't have asked for more. Jays need to score more runs.

Everything you could have asked for from Trey.

Lol. Ernie was at second by the time Boyle went to the plate.

Vladdy looks lost.

Huge by Kirk. He'd been slumping but crushed that one.

Big from Yesavage because Tampa just faced him last week so even seeing him for a second time they couldn't figure him out.

W. Excellent!

Seranthony threw 24 pitches today and Yariel threw 20. Does this mean that if the score is, say, 3-2 or 4-2 Blue Jays entering the ninth inning tomorrow, Hoffman will be called upon to pitch T9 to secure the bye?

Vlad did well running out infield hits from grounders yesterday and fielded well (like the double play today). But, yeah, at the plate he seems out of sorts, out of tempo, and off balanced. We need him back to normal. Hopefully it is a funk he can get out of rather than a hidden injury.

Hoffman is definitely pitching tomorrow if the game is on the line. For better or worse.

Huge win today. I don't think the Orioles are beating the Yankees, so take care of your own business tomorrow and rest for 5 days. All hands on deck.

3-2 Blue Jays entering the ninth tomorrow. The Yankees just beat the O’s.

You’re the manager. You have a fresh Braydon Fisher available. Hoffman is also available. Which pitcher do you use?

Whether I'd use Fisher or not is somewhat irrelevant, as Schneider will use Hoffman.

Yeah. I guess it’s Hoffman or bust. Unless Gausman goes 9 innings.

Hoffman’s Sept. 2025 underlying numbers: 5.11 FIP, 5.77 xFIP, 6.75 K/9, 5.91 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 (the home run rate is actually a lot better than his 2025 season rate of 1.99 HR/9).

I think someone (John?) mentioned that Hoffman has generally been good on one day’s rest. So that could work in his favour.

Very exciting to come down to last day of season to play for bye. In his last ab, it looked to me like Vlad moved back from the plate a bit but not 100% sure. Hope he he gets a huge hit or two tomorrow to get his confidence back. Jays need him.

Really great season.

If we’re talking hypotheticals, how about this one:

Rays and Blue Jays are tied in the bottom of the 9th tomorrow. Yankees have already won, Chandler Simpson was the last out in the top of the 9th and will be the zombie runner to start extras. Except the game is won on a walk off home run… by Anthony Santander.

Hey, nobody would be griping about the contract anymore after that…

Hey, nobody would be griping about the contract anymore after that…
I think that could apply to Straw, IKF, Giminez, France and Vladdy.

I'm trying to figure out if any of the Red Sox, Tigers or Guardians want to win Sunday.  (It seems like winning makes it more likely they'll have a tougher playoff opponent.)

A few optimists here - worst case is Gausman goes 4-5, knocked out but jays hitting enough to keep it close so they use everyone in the pen in an effort to win but it doesn't work, we have an exhausted pen and no Gausman for the WC round that starts on Tuesday (1 days rest), and goes on Wednesday and maybe Thursday with Friday off before the ALDS (Sat/Sun, Mon off, Tue/Wed, Thurs off, Fri).  Etc.  But if the Jays blow it Sunday and use up everyone then I fear it will be just 2 and done.  Fingers crossed Gausman is on and the offense is alive and well tomorrow for a blowout win. Regardless of anything else a blowout is best either way as it would avoid use of the high leverage relievers.

As to playoff opponent I recall that talk in '22 and '23 around here. It rarely works out as planned. Even if you get the 'easier' one every playoff team is tough. I'm hoping for a WC of NYY vs Boston as those 2 in a life/death battle is always fun to watch, plus it would mean the Jays win the AL East :)  Tigers vs Cleveland would be fun given how they've fought each other these past few weeks.

22 was a fluke.
23 was a road series, always tough.

Winning the central means hosting the wild card. It's desirable but not at the cost of missing a top pitcher in the first 2 games.

There's no benefit to winning for Boston.
But I don't think they will embarrass themselves either.

If I have this right, the runner-up of Jays/Yankees has a 75% chance of hosting the Red Sox and 25% chance of hosting the Tigers, assuming each game is 50/50.
It's the Red Sox if either the Red Sox win or Guardians lose.
It's the Tigers if both the Red Sox lose and Guardians win.

I'm not sure Lazaro Estrada & Paxton Schulz are such easy cuts. They each have two options left, are cheap and just debuted this year. It would seem to be questionable roster management to DFA Estrada in particular after two MLB appearances.

Easton Lucas is probably an easier cut because he's 29 and not a prospect. But he has an option year left, is theoretically a depth starter who can be stashed at AAA. And the FO chose to keep him around this month over Manoah.

Tate is an easier cut as well as a veteran fungible RH reliever who is in last year of arb.

I think Ryan Burr is a cut as well instead of adding him back to the 40 man over the winter. He'd be welcome back on a minor league deal, but he's too old and bubble to use up a spot all winter over younger options. I'd also prefer the Jays lean towards bubble types with SP or long man potential rather than non-fireballer RH relievers.

Angel Bastardo is the mystery Rule 5 man who has been hurt all year and is supposed to be continuing his rehab in the AFL. Seems like a waste of a winter 40-man spot as well, but the Jays have come this far with him.

I'd like Robinson Pina to hang around as well as a depth SP option, particularly because the Jays gave up an asset in a low-A fireballer to acquire depth from the Marlins midseason when the rotation was a mess.

I'm always a proponent of leaving anyone but Top 100/Team Top 10 prospect types exposed to the Rule 5. Teams tend to be too cautious in gumming up the backend of the roster for years with marginal players not ready to contribute to the big club at present.

The Jays haven't permanently lost a Rule 5 guy in 20+ years (and the last pitcher they did was a one&done MLB career). Like some of the bubble guys like Pina, Estrada, Schultz, Lucas on the list above, you are much more at risk of losing a pitching depth asset because of 40-man crunches than actually having someone raid your system via the Rule 5 over the winter.

We're in the morning of a day where we can clinch the best record in the AL and a first round bye. I couldn't care less about 40-man roster decisions in December. That's part of the joy of following a winning team IMO. You can care about things like playing in the playoffs instead of the rule 5 draft which pretty much never actually matters.

Preach Glevin.

Go Jays!

I like debating the roster decisions at the end of the 40 man roster as much as the next fan, but otherwise I'm in complete agreement with Glevin.

This is the biggest game they've played in years, so the merits or Easton Lucas or Robinson Pina are the furthest thing from my mind.

Go Jays! Win or lose, today and here on out, it’s been a really great season that absolutely no one predicted.

Yesavage was so impressive in rising to the occasion yesterday. He could easily have crumbled under the pressure of the situation (critical game, first home start, sold-out stadium, some infield hits and a play not made behind him). He maintained his composure and pitched really well.

I’m looking forward to today’s game — the culmination of a great season.

Yesavage has been dominant VS TB in his 2 starts against them. I am jumping to the conclusion that he is a TB killer. If my memory serves me Halladay pitched best VS Detroit.

Glevin absolutely right. I feel more and more than Toronto and NY are too strong and will both advance further.

So in the biggest game of the year, Schneider is in the 2 hole and playing 2B. Nice.

And no gimenez.

Today's lineup:

DH Springer
2B Schneider
1B Guerrero Jr.
RF Santander
CF Varsho
CA Kirk
3B Barger
SS Clement
LF Straw

It would be absolutely amazing if the Jays can win this game and celebrate a division title on the last day of the season with a sold out crowd celebrating with them. Obviously the Jays could lose and still get the division if the Yankees lose as well, but screw that. Just win and don't even look at the scoreboard.

They're facing a lefty, so Schneider starting over Gimenez isn't much of a surprise. Barger being in the lineup over IKF is, though. Seymour has neutral splits in the bigs, but lefties have displayed more HR power against him thus far both up here and in the minors, so the manager might be looking for the big swing.

While it's obviously all hands on deck today, Varland and Fisher are your fresh relievers, with Fluharty and Little (and Lauer?) available for the lefties. Six strong from the ace should set things up nicely.

Don't love Straw in left but other options mostly seem worse. Rays sitting Simpson and Diaz which is helpful.

Does Santander in RF and Springer at DH mean Springer is dealing with pain?

Captain Kirk!!!

KIRK!!!

What a moment for Kirk there.

Vlad single, Kirk HR, 5 runs. What a great first inning.

5-1 in the key game.

0-1 in the secondary game.

We’ll see what happens in the rest of the game, but Kirk’s home run may end up being an iconic moment in Blue Jays history. Such an immense hit and such an emotional moment for the team and their fans.

That was as joyous as I have ever seen Kirk. One of my fave Jay homers of all time.

Great!

Might want to get the bullpen up. Gausman not looking sharp.

2-1 O's

Yeah going from 5-1 to 5-4 is certainly not good.

But the silver lining is going from 0-1 to 2-1 in the other game.

But lets add on some runs and shut down the Rays to win the primary game!

I wouldn't even pay attention to Yankees game and assume they are going to win. Jays need to win here.

Now 2-2 in the Yankees game on a Stanton single.

The frustrating thing is that Bradish should have had a strikeout in the PA. He threw a 2-2 FB at the top of the zone that looked like a strike, but was (predictably in Yankee Stadium) called a ball. Stanton hit the next pitch for an RBI single.

Well the bullpen has been really good of late, let's see if it can deliver 5.1 innings starting with this key next out.

Incredible job by Fluharty to K Aranda with the bases loaded. Potentially game-saving out.

Bradish out of the game, so....not liking the Orioles chances the rest of the way.

I hate the PH call, so he'll come through.

SF and now improved D at second base in a 6-4 ballgame. That is a good outcome in that situation.

Yeah, to be clear, no problem with the defensive replacement, but I think even with the handedness Schneider is better hitting than Giménez. But SF is a good enough outcome.

Especially with the Yankees blowing the 2 on no one out top of the order to score none and be 2-2 still.

Fluharty is pitching really well. Great focus on the mound.

There's no stopping Kirk today!!

TEAM MVP ALEJANDRO KIRKY!!!

Kirk got scorching hot at just the right time.

I think I know who will be getting the Hazel Mae interview…

Kirk legacy game.

Alejandro 6 TB 4

not a great time for Gaus to have one of his worst outings of the year.

Maybe Yesavage should be our game 1 starter.

I think Gausman will bounce back. It seems to happen a lot with great pitchers that a short bad outing is followed by a longer good one.

Rice’s second HR of the day (he has crushed the ball in August and September) puts the Yankees ahead 3-2. But they ran out of time to pull ahead of Toronto. Love the Blue Jays making this a no-doubt win.

Fun game now

Springer having a terrific day that would be the best hitter if not for Kirk.

Kirk is great and has been superb today, but Springer is the team MVP. He has been outstanding from day 1 to day 162 of the season.

what a great game to finish a great season.


huge credit to everyone for buckling down when they needed to to break the slump and win 4 in a row to end the year to seal it.

At age 35/36 this year, Springer has the best wRC+ (166) and wOBA (.408) of his career.

Show yourself naysayers!

Well, that was very satisfying. What a fantastic regular season and made it to second round already!

A big tip of the hat to scottt and John. A couple of other posters predicted the Jays to do things like finish no lower than third, but Scott and John were the only two to outright predict the division title. (Hope the formatting works!)

It seems pretty cool that they had Lauer close it out, and him making the final putout was (chef's kiss).

What a season.

Meanwhile, the longest two weeks of my life will never end.

How sweet it is! If you’d told me last week the Yankees would finish the season on an eight game winning streak, yet the Blue Jays still hold on to the AL East crown…

I was an 81-81 guy so off by 13 games.

So, uh, is George's cursing coming out over the TV, or just radio?

George’s $&@$$&& on TV too (on the Sportsnet + app anyway). A classic postgame interview.

Mine was “89 wins, thanks to a better roster and greater depth this year.” So off by 5 (very important) wins.

Good predictions scottt and John.

Keith Law’s preseason prediction for the Blue Jays: 77-85

My predictions (grading myself in brackets.)

The Good
Jays 89 win. (Not bad. Seemed bold at the time! B+)

Manoah a difference-maker in the 2nd half (buzzer! F)

Bo and Vladdy have great hitting seasons (ding! ding! ding! A)

The medium

The bullpen improves from awful to average (8/15 by ERA ding! ding! ding! A)

Starting pitching is middle of the pack (10/15 by ERA, basically that's middle, B+)

Santander is fine but not a difference-maker (no and yes, C)

Schneider's hitting improves his defense not so much (yes & yes, A)

Will Wagner is great defensively but his offense not so much (I think this is yes and yes, A)

The Bad:
Bo's defense. (yes, A)

Clement's offense (sorta, C)

Springer turns into a pumpkin (NO! How about MVP! F)

Roden doesn't make an impact (Yes, A)

Lots of handwringing over Bo and Vladdy contracts/trades. (Yes, A)

If they make the playoffs they don't win many games and are out early.

(Hopefully a big Springer like F here.)

I'm certain all the sports books had the Jays under 80 wins preseason.

I had Jays at 85 which I thought was a bit optimistic but if you had told me Santander would be useless, Hoffman would be inconsistent, Gimenez would be hurt and wouldn't hit, and scherzer would be hurt and be mostly in effective, I'd say they'd win like 75 games max.

Just a guess, but feels like Bo is still a ways away from being able to play, even as a DH.

Is the ALCS or WS the likely earliest time he could be ready to go?

1. ALE: .530 win%, +271 rdiff
2. NLC: .520 win%, +224 rdiff
3. ALW: .501 win%, -76 rdiff
4. NLE: .494 win%, -130 rdiff
5. ALC: .478 win%, -115 rdiff
6. NLW: .478 win%, -174 rdiff


TOR vs ALE: 29-23, .558

Fangraphs projections I noted back on March 25/25:

NYY 86, BOS 85, BAL 83, TOR 83, TAM 82.
MIN 83, DET 82, KAN 81, CLE 78, CHW 63.
SEA 85, TEX 84, HOU 83, ATH 76, LAA 76.

ATL 93, PHI 88, NYM 86, WSH 73, MIA 71.
CHC 84, MIL 81, STL 79, CIN 78, PIT 78.
LAD 96, ARZ 86, SDP 82, SFG 81, COL 65.

TOR vs Playoff Teams: 37-30, .552

Next question is what to do with Santander?  If he gets hot he could be a force. But his bat looks ice cold and Lukes is hot. Boy, some very long discussions will be coming on rosters.

My optimistic prediction was 86-76 if a few key things went right (Bo, Kirk and Springer being league average rather than awful being the key one) but in my heart I was probably expecting 80-82 or something like that. The team wasn’t really as bad as they seemed last year, but looking at the other four AL East teams in April… 5th place appeared a likely outcome once again.

Good thing I’m not a betting man.

I checked out that prediction thread and saw I didn't do one this year for some reason. I thought they could win 85-88 games though, and be at least in the mix for a wild card.

And in the NL, Soto's Mets don't make it.

Davidi says that Bo “wouldn’t have been ready for the wild-card round.”

I predicted the only team they would finish ahead of were the Yankees and that Schneider would be fired at the end of they year. lol

My pre-season prediction from the March thread:

"I'll live on the optimistic side this time around and go with a high-80's win total and a Wild Card berth. Last season reminded me of an average JP Ricciardi type of team (boring, .500ish), and they obviously underperformed even that. I think the front office did a lot to improve the club for 2025, and the position player depth in particular looks very strong. Where the volatility comes in is the rotation (health) and bullpen (effectiveness beyond the top 3). Things can definitely go south in a hurry with an injury or two to the starters."

I thought I was being optimistic with the high-80's Wild Card team, and they not only overshot my prediction but won the division and had the best record in the AL as well. Well done 2025 Jays.

I checked out that prediction thread and saw I didn't do one this year for some reason.

I would have predicted pain - not my first rodeo - and indeed, there was plenty. They lost 68 games! That's a lot of losing. And some of them made you want to tear your own teeth out...

I would like to point out that in the fourth inning of the biggest game of the season, with the bases loaded and a one-run lead, John Schneider pulled his ace starter and brought in a 24 year old rookie with roughly four months in the majors and an ERA of 4.56, someone who'd been optioned to the minors twice in the last three months. It was completely fearless on the one hand and utterly desperate on the other. (Gausman simply didn't have it today, what else you gonna do?) But mostly it speaks of what I think is a completely irrational confidence in anyone who happens to be wearing the uniform.

Me, I find it pretty well impossible to trust anyone in this bullpen. Schneider doesn't seem to have these issues at all. He seems to believe that if you're here, it's because we all think you can do a job. So go out there and do a job.

So would it be insane to put Yavesage out there game one or two?

There are so many different ways they can go with the rotation.

The obvious move would be to start Gausman in Game 1, which leaves him on full rest for Game 5. But if they do that, they'd have to pitch Bassitt or Yesavage on the road, and they'd probably prefer to have both of them start at home. That would mean leaving Bieber/Gausman for the road starts in Games 3&4, which would be getting too cute with your rotation. So they probably just go Gausman/Bieber and take it from there.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall in that room when these discussions occur.

I was way off in my prediction at 79-83. I wasn't confident that Vlad would get signed and I thought it would be a season long distraction. I am happy to be so wrong but, man, a lot of things went right for this season to happen:

1) George Springer having one of the best seasons of his career after many people figured the last 2 years of his contract were going to be dead weight.

2) Nathan Lukes emerging to provide many key hits and very good defense.

3) Myles Straw His acquisition was widely questioned and criticized on this forum yet he provided great defense, a decent bat and helped win several games.

4) Davis Schneider I thought his first season was a flash in the pan and when he was sent down to the minors early in the spring it would be for good. Both him and Lukes have good eyes at the plate and often have extended at bats.

5) Addison Bargar He emerged from the group of young players that auditioned last year and provided some much-needed power with 21 home runs plus good defense in the outfield and at third base.

6) Bo Bichette It was not a given that he would return to form but he did so as the team's best hitter.

7) Eric Lauer He came from nowhere and helped stabilize the rotation. Probably one of the underrated developments.

8) Shane Bieber Atkins and Shapiro have been widely criticized at times but the trade for Bieber made have been the sneaky best move of any team at the trade deadline. The Jays may have made the playoffs without him but I don't know if they would gotten first place.

Anyway, I didn't mean to make this so long. There are some more unsung guys like Tyler Heineman, Mason Fluharty, Tommy Nance -- heck, everybody has taken a turn but most importantly these guys became a real team that believed in each other and that is one thing that is really hard to predict before a season. Oh, and one person that I have criticized in the past, John Schneider, who seems to pull the right strings. ( Most of the time)

Vs BOS & NYY


Gausman 6gms, 6.1ip/gm, 3.47era, 3.00fip, 4.28xfip
Berrios 6gms, 5.4ip/gm, 3.34era, 3.04fip, 3.96xfip
Scherzer 4gms, 4.8ip/gm, 6.52era, 4.79fip, 3.74xfip
Bassitt 6gms, 5.2ip/gm, 5.46era, 5.37fip, 4.09xfip
Bieber 0gms
Yesavage 0gms

I don't remember my predictions but I think I had Jays and Rays finishing at the top. More importantly, has anyone heard from Marc? I hope the guy is okay... must really hurt to see your team do well when you dislike them so much.

Don't think Marc dislikes the Jays, he just seems a pessimist by nature and this board is littered with optimists, at least when things are going at least somewhat well.
I'm a bit of a pessimist myself. It's just that I rarely post my negativity, because who the hell wants to hear it?

When someone posts here mostly when the jays are down or after they lost but then disappear when on winning streaks you have to wonder why they’re even here.

Marc has posted a lot of good analysis on the minor league side. I'm glad he's been here for that.

I want to thank Magpie for consistently putting up the series threads all season with interesting information as a bonus.

I'm a big fan of Marc's post especially on prospects and I think this forum is big enough to accept differing views without getting personal and abusive.

Concur with Gerry and 85bluejay’s posts.

Congratulations to the Blue Jays team - well deserved especially when you consider the disaster of an offseason that the FO had:

Santander
Scherzer
Hoffman
Garcia
Gimenez
Sandlin

None of these players made significant contribution while eating up valuable payroll.

Also, I will mention that last year I was in the trade Vladdy for young assets camp and allocate that money elsewhere and nothing that has happened this season has changed my opinion .Josh Naylor for example would have been a solid replacement and no 14 year contract required and extra payroll to use. But hey, the Jays are AL east champs and everything is ok.

I want to say that Ernie Clement was my favourite Jays to cheer for this year - made the most of his talent - played multiple positions well, had timely offensive production and yet was subjected to what seemed unrelenting negativity from some on this site whenever he didn't produce - Not that WAR is everything but according to baseball reference, Clement had a 4.3 WAR behind only Vladdy (4.6) and George (4.6), two much more highly regarded and expensive players - so I say BRAVO Ernie, what a wonderful year.

It's nothing personal and the idea of anyone being abusive is a bit funny. I don't really read any minor league threads. I read the game threads and the only thing I ever read Marc posting is how awful the team is and how destined they are to fail and finish behind their competition. Even when results say otherwise he doubles down. Jays sucked at the start of the year. Jays had the worst deadline. Jay's couldn't stay in first. Everybody is silly for not accepting the formality of his analysis of the big league club. Is it wrong to come on here and ask him what happened when his authoritative comments blow up so spectacularly in his face?

When I am looking for top flight opinion on prospects yes, I seek out Marc's posts and I've requested his analysis. When it comes to the big league club his posts teeter on troll like. Please. Stay awhile and keep trolling but by goodness I will be here to ask you to troll when not opportune for you to do it. Calling this out is consequence not cancellation.

Let me double down. His absence right now says a lot. And no, I do not wish for him to disappear from this board. Similar to Greenfrog and ugly who I've called out many times and subsequently searched for. Nothing wrong with that. Never advocated for anybody to leave and enjoy this place more because I can read everyone's posts and choose to agree or disagree and share myself. Only one that got away was Dan Gordon.

The biggest surprise of this season for me was the resurgence of George Springer - I was totally wrong about Springer having written him off and frankly was expecting the Jays to have to release him before his contract was up - I'm still a little on guard about the reason for his resurgence but so far so good, let's hope it stays that way.

Ducey also left the site.

he just seems a pessimist by nature

Hey, pain is inevitable! It's coming! We must all find a way to cope, each in his or her own way.

What a rollercoaster! This past week I went from 100% confidence to 10% confidence then back to 100%. AL Manager of the year John Schneider got it exactly right “we did it out f*cking way”.

11 wins to go!

Marc's made two posts since Saturday, which were to note that the Yankees were winning and to say the Jays offence was bad, outside of Springer and Varsho, and they had only a 25% chance of winning both games.

Not a single post after Saturday's game or yesterday.

Make of that what you will.

Ah come on guys why are we celebrating this great season by calling out other posters and pretending anyone here has an itoldyouso pedestal to stand on.

This is more annoying than negative commentary on the team.

I predicted 85-89 wins which was not pessimistic IMO. For me pessimistic would be 82 and lower. Optimistic would be 92 and higher. I will continue to predict 85-89 wins each year for a few years.

Jerry DiPoto talked about a .540 winning % over a 5 year period being quite good. I thought the same before he spoke about it. Seattle 2025 90 wins and the ALW winner. 2024 85 wins 1 back of WC KC and Detroit who had 86 wins. 2023 88 wins and no post season due to Toronto 89 wins and Houston, Texas with 90 wins, Minnesota got the ALC with 87 wins. So Seattle's 2024 and 2023 were hard luck seasons but they were competitive to the 162nd game which was very good for revenue. Being in it at the 162nd game is ownership's and Shapiro's overall plan IMO.

Yeah, the tarring and feathering of some posters on this site is so weird.

Just because someone was wrong or overly pessimistic on one of their takes in the past is not a reason to publicly shame them days, weeks, months or years later.

There actually is no obligation to "call out" people or hold them accountable for their posts. It is actually possible to move on and focus on the present.

Glass houses, and all that.

And what if Marc was simply trying to reverse-jinx the team? Maybe we should be congratulating him for a job well done!

Well, greenfrog, there was something you said April 18, 2024 at 12.36 PM that I disagreed with, but I won't mention it. ( just joking)

There was a writer on Yanks Go Yard, as well as some Yankee fans, who were complaining about the Rays fielding a poor lineup and not playing Yander Diaz, Chandler Simpson and Brandon Lowe. Diaz had injured his groin and that's why he wasn't playing, and Simpson was replaced at leadoff by Palacios who has a good batting line. I don't know why Lowe wasn't in the lineup but the Rays certainly didn't lie down for the Jays. At least the Yankees and their fans have a day off to whine and eat their sour grapes.

Diaz was pulled from the lineup on Saturday once he got to .300, so that was probably why he didn't play Sunday.

The Rays owed the Jays one dating back to the last day of the 2021 regular season, when they intentionally lost to the Yankees.

Yelling judgement of those one disagrees with is pretty much where most of civil discourse is at these days. It’s exhausting. The Box community has historically done a great job of avoiding that problem. I barked at dalimon the other night, so I’m taking a break. Go Jays!!!

Lowe didn't play because, I'm not sure why (perhaps getting more time to look at Seymour), he was told he was playing two of the three games this series before it started and was given the choice. He chose to sit Sunday and apparently TB had planned that out by Friday. Diaz it was to protect his .300 batting line. I think those were both mentioned on the broadcast.

Secondly, I won't say anything more on this, but there's a difference between reasoned disagreement and constant negativity. And then there's things like calling the fourth-highest scoring offence in baseball "bad" on the second-last day of the season.

(It hasn't hit like it over the past two weeks, and there are park factors, and it wouldn't be fourth-best if you compared it to the current versions of every team's offence, and all those caveats, and more, might be appropriate, but that's a ridiculous comment.

The Jays have allowed more runs than any other playoff team. They won the AL East because of their offence.)

I third Gerry's compliment of Magpie's game threads.

Here is my comment creating back lash:

"I don't remember my predictions but I think I had Jays and Rays finishing at the top. More importantly, has anyone heard from Marc? I hope the guy is okay... must really hurt to see your team do well when you dislike them so much."

There have been MULTIPLE posters questioning Marc's bold predictions, not only I. I will continue to voice my disagreement with commentary that appears irrational and silly. I will make a better effort to remove any sarcasm and next time will just say something like "I am very happy to see, like others in this thread, that Marc's bold and persistent predictions proved false." This way nobody can interpret my post as anything other than me being happy that the team I cheer for isn't as bad as one poster keeps saying it is. Can I take the advice of others and just ignore? Yes, I can. It doesn't mean that choosing to engage means I am shaming anyone or abusing anyone.

I challenge Beauxites to disagree when willed rather than "ignore and move on," continuing to ignore real discussion and simply promote their own ideas.

so go ahead and disagree with the content of his posts. but enough with the personal sludge. like what do you want from him? an apology?

dalimon5's "must really hurt to see your team do well when you dislike them so much." was pretty fun tbh

Marc Hulet, who provides invaluable analysis around these parts and is actually willing to make bold statements (as opposed to some other posters who are rarely wrong because, well, they don't really offer up anything that could be), has been predicting the downfall of the Jays since the trade deadline, and hasn't commented since they won the division. That definitely warrants some humour.