Boston-NY series should be fun.

Are teams reseeded after the wildcard series?

Jays will play Bos/NYY winner. I hope the series goes three. Yankees scare me a lot more then Red Sox especially with current form. Only one day off between this round and next so game one starters wouldn't be ready until game two of next round.

6:08pm start times for BOS@NYY Games 1 and 2 (and Sportsnet's pre-game show is 5:30pm).

ESPN TV and radio announcers are posted at https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2025/09/2025-mlb-wild-card-series-exclusively-on-espn-networks-starts-september-30/ .

Seeding doesn't change from initial rankings.

The late lamented John Cerutti was most definitely not a relief pitcher in 1989.

Looking at this and reflecting on the last 4 years...

...where does Gausman rank on the list of "best UFA signings by a Blue Jay front office?" Factoring in impact, value for contract, etc.

Considering we are at 4 years of very good to elite production at a reasonable price point, I'd have to say he's on the short list.

nice work John! i know how hard it because i've been working off and on on my own spreadsheet comparing select jays playoffs teams and man is it tough.

think now that the season is over and we have a week off i might be able to finish it tho.

Biggest collapse? Mets, I guess since they are out. Tigers can still recover. Houston had some crippling injuries. Twins are a whole different type of collapse. Curious to see how long it takes them to recover.

Final R/L Splits plausible best lineups:

wRC+ vRHP / vLHP


This year's stats:


1. LF Springer 178 / LF Springer 132
2. SS Bichette 131 / SS Bichette 143
3. 1B Guerrero 129 / 1B Guerrero 163
4. 2B Schneider 155 / 2B Schneider 106
5. CF Varsho 129 / CF Varsho 98
6. C Alejandro 116 / C Alejandro 113
7. 3B Barger 115 / 3B Clement 146
8. DH Santander 70 / DH Santander 32
9. RF Lukes 104 / RF Lukes 99

B. UT Clement 75 / UT Barger 69
B. OF Straw 89 / OF Straw 93
B. IF Gimenez 80 / IF Gimenez 39
B. C Heineman 95 / C Heineman 183

X. UT France 93 / UT France 90
X. OF Loperfido 155 / OF Loperfido 123
X. IF Falefa 86 / IF Falefa 46
X. C Pinto n/a / C Pinto n/a




2 year stats:

1. LF Springer 138 / LF Springer 103
2. SS Bichette 114 / SS Bichette 101
3. 1B Guerrero 147 / 1B Guerrero 165
4. DH Santander 115 / DH Santander 101
5. CF Varsho 103 / CF Varsho 121
6. C Alejandro 106 / C Alejandro 106
7. 3B Barger 104 / 3B Clement 114
8. RF Lukes 111 / RF Lukes 91
9. 2B Schneider 108 / 2B Schneider 76

B. UT Clement 87 / UT Barger 53
B. OF Straw 89 / OF Straw 93
B. IF Gimenez 86 / IF Gimenez 56
B. C Heinenman 90 / C Heineman 169

X. UT France 92 / UT France 94
X. OF Loperfido 99 / OF Loperfido 76
X. IF Falefa 94 / IF Falefa 59
X. C Pintp 166 / C Pinto 50




3 year stats


1. LF Springer 125 / LF Springer 102
2. SS Bichette 116 / SS Bichette 117
3. 1B Guerrero 137 / 1B Guerrero 152
4. DH Santander 116 / DH Santander 109
5. 2B Schneider 112 / 2B Schneider 105
6. 3B Barger 104 / 3B Clement 114
7. C Alejandro 101 / C Alejandro 106
8. CF Varsho 93 / CF Varsho 113
9. RF Lukes 109 / RF Lukes 83

B. UT Clement 90 / UT Barger 53
B. OF Straw 75 / OF Straw 78
B. IF Gimenez 89 / IF Gimenez 75
B. C Heineman 84 / C Heineman 186

X. UT France 98 / UT France 98
X. OF Loperfido 99 / OF Loperfido 76
X. IF Falefa 90 / IF Falefa 65
X. C Pinto 113 / C Pinto 72

Plausible Best Lineup using this year's stats only:


1. DH Springer 586pa,.340babip, .389obp, 166wrc+, 5.8war650
2. 2B Bichette 628pa, .342babip, .357obp, 134wrc+, 3.9war650
3. 1B Guerrero 680pa, .313babip, .381obp, 137wrc+, 3.6war650
4. LF Schneider 227pa, .280babip, .361obp, 127wrc+, 3.7war650
5. CF Varsho 271pa, .250babip, .284obp, 123wrc+, 5.3war650
6. C Alejandro 506pa, .292babip, .348obp, 116wrc+, 5.9war650
7. 3B Barger 502pa, .284babip, .301obp, 107wrc+, 2.8war650
8. SS Clement 588pa, .296babip, .313obp, 98wrc+, 3.5war650
9. RF Lukes 438pa, .273babip, .323obp, 103wrc+, 2.7war650

B. UT Santander 221pa, .219babip, .271obp, 61wrc+, -2.6war650
B. OF Straw 299pa, .308babip, .313obp, 91wrc+, 3.9war650
B. IF Gimenez 369pa, .238babip, .285obp, 70wrc+, 1.8war650
B. C Heineman 174pa, .342babip, .361obp, 120wrc+, 7.8war650

X. UT France 490pa, .300babip, .320obp, 92wrc+, 1.2war650
X. OF Loperfido 104pa, .431babip, .379obp, 148wrc+, 4.4war650
X. IF Falefa 459pa, .314babipm, .297obp, 75wrc+, 1.0war650
X. C Pinto 0pa




Using Fangraphs combined projections:

1. LF Springer 127wrc+
2. SS Bichette 123wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 144wrc+
4. DH Santander 111wrc+
5. C Alejandro 116wrc+
6. CF Varsho 105wrc+
7. 2B Schneider 109wrc+
8. 3B Barger 105wrc+
9. RF Lukes 107wrc+

B. UT Clement 97wrc+
B. OF Straw 78wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 95wrc+
B. C Heineman 90wrc+

X. UT France 102wrc+
X. OF Loperfido 95wrc+
X. IF Falefa 80wrc+
X. C Valenzuela 63wrc+

It's easy to say that we should be rooting for the Red Sox because of Judge and Stanton, but Crochet owns the Blue Jays and the Jays would potentially face him twice in the ALDS.

It shouldn't be that a team that plays in the Wild Card can throw its best pitcher in Game 1 of that series, and then still have them available for Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS. Perhaps MLB should punish the lesser teams by making them play the very next day if their WC series goes the distance.

people are scared of the yanks because they ended the season so hot.....except we all knew that they had a patsy schedule to end the season and all of those teams were mailing it in.

the last teams the yanks played that were good and actually trying was the four series set against HOU TOR DET BOS and they went 7-5 with a -5 run diff. Solid, but not at all scary

At the end of that stretch, with the jays winning a bunch in a row to get a 5gm lead, everyone thought the jays had the division wrapped.

So the yanks then entered their last stretch of the year against a patsy sked that weren't even trying, and with the yanks in a nothing to lose mindset because everyone thought the division was over. Only at that point did the yanks go on their 11-2 run.

and unfortunately the jays when they got that 5 game lead on Sep 15, kinda took their foot off the gas / had trouble dealing with the expectations and went on a remarkable ice cold hitting streak that was maybe the worst in franchise history and had a 1-6 run to let the yanks back in it.

Of course as soon as the Yanks tied the jays in the standings, the jays then ripped off 4 in a row with a +20 run diff to seal the division.

NL is Reds vs LAD - no obvious stories come to mind right away

As a sign of just how old I am, my instinct, when I saw this remark, was that they were recently longstanding rivals in the NL West. Then I do the math and compute that recently means half a century ago.

it's still the same yankees that the dodgers let beat themselves last year. it'll be fun watching them kick the ball around the field.

from the AL, i think the mariners are the team to look out for because of the pitching. our '77 cousins would be a good series, though the one i'm least confident about. if judge and stanton stay hot...that's another issue, but judge also has a career .768 OPS in the postseason. so maybe not?

It was mentioned on Saturday's broadcast that it is doubtful that Bo plays in the series against either Boston or New York. He is still hitting off a tee and hasn't faced any velocity and is wearing a knee brace. He looked like he was walking pretty slowly and gingerly as he came onto the field for the player's celebration.

Magpie - as I mentioned this is how the players were used in the playoffs, not the regular season, as that is all that matters now. The playoffs. In the 1989 playoffs Cerutti was used twice out of the pen - 2 2/3 IP. Cito felt he was the #5 starter and he needed 4 starters - Stieb got 2 starts, then 1 each for Key, Stottlemyre, and Flannagan. What was funny is Cerutti that year was better than all of them in ERA and 2nd to Stieb in bWAR but all 5 had ERA's in the 3's (ERA+ from 93 to 119). My guess is Cerutti had the most pen time in the past thus was felt to be the one most suited to handling relief duties that playoff season, mixed with David Wells being the only decent LH reliever on the team (Cerutti was LH as most of us old times know). For 'holy crap' I just noticed Cerutti's K/9 was down to 3.0 that year. Hard to imagine a guy having a 3.07 ERA today with 3.0 K/9 - or him even being allowed to start 1 game let alone 31.

I have never used a gambling website. Haven't gambled since I helped bankrupt a bookie about 50 years ago. I will occasionally bet with acquaintances if I know the odds are stacked in my favour. Haven't lost a cuttlefish bet yet.

Reason I bring this up is I'm wondering if anyone with a rosy preseason prediction for the Jays actually laid a bet, since all the gambling sites had them as a sub-80 win team.

Chuck - I identify with that. My favorite moment in Jays history was 1985 when they clinched - so exciting to see Bell catch that final out and the pure joy on his face as he did. 2nd last day of the season with the Yankees charging hard after they got to our ace kid closer (Henke) the night before. Different era - Doyle Alexander throwing a complete game (faced 32 batters, no pitch count), his 5th in 7 games to finish the regular season. Wow. Imagine someone doing that today. We were all 'wow' when Gausman finished 1 game.

I put $1,000 on the Jays over 76.5 wins, and $100 on a World Series win at 60:1 because I thought there was excellent value on both numbers. The cashout currently stands at $546.04, and didn't move that much when they won yesterday.

this is how the players were used in the playoffs, not the regular season
Sorry, got engrossed in the Data Table and missed the explanation.

Fun fact: Ceruti pitched 205.1 innings that year, same as Garret Crochet this year. Crochet led the league in Innings Pitched. Cerutti was 24th.

In '91 only Borders was used behind the plate (no idea who the backup for the playoffs was).

It was Greg Myers, but Gaston wouldn't use him in the post-season, despite the fact that a) Myers could actually catch Candiotti's knuckleball and Borders couldn't, and b) Myers had totally worn out Minnesota pitching that season. It still makes me crazy remembering.

Yankees scare me because they are a very good team. Reds Sox don't scare me because they aren't. Yankees have Fried, Rodon, and a couple of other options that are decent. Red Sox have Crochet who is better than any of those guys but Giolito/Bello, their 2/3 guys had FIPs of 4.17/4.19 which would make them 4th/5th starters on the Yankees. Crochet is going first game so wouldn't go until game 2 in next round which means starting 1/5 games which is not the same impact as 1/3 (obviously).

Yankees were number one in baseball in WRC+ and in HR's. Boston had a 103 WRC+ and finished 15th in HR's. Yankees had 6 regulars with a 125 WRC+ or better (one better being 204!). It's an extremely difficult lineup to navigate especially for a staff that is very HR prone. Red Sox had 2 guys with 125 WRC+ and one is hurt. I'll take my chances with one start from Crochet over just a better team.

Final Pitching Stats for Playoffs Roster Contenders


SP1 RH Gausman 32gms, 6.0ip/gm, 88era-, 80fip-, 90xfip-, 4.0awar/32
SP2 RH Yesavage 3gms, 4.7ip/gm, 79era-, 44fip-, 77xfip-, 4.3awar/32
SP3 RH Bieber 7gms, 5.8ip/gm, 88era-, 106fip-, 80xfip-, 2.7awar/32
SP4 RH Bassitt 32gms, 5.3ip/gm, 97era-, 95fip-, 92xfip-, 2.3awar/32
SP5 RH Berrios 31gms, 5.4ip/gm, 103era-, 110fip-, 106xfip-, 1.4awar/32
SP6 RH Scherzer 17gms, 5.0ip/gm, 127era-, 118fip-, 109xfip-, 0.6awar/32


RP1 RH Fisher 52gms, 1.0ip/gm, 66era-, 71fip-, 87xfip-, 1.2awar/65
RP2 LH Lauer 28gms, 3.7ip/gm, 78era-, 91fip-, 99xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP3 RH Varland 74gms, 1.0ip/gm, 73era-, 84fip-, 74xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP4 LH Little 79gms, 0.9ip/gm, 74era-, 68fip-, 80xfip-, 1.0awar/65
RP5 RH Nance 30gms, 1.1ip/gm, 49era-, 43fip-, 67xfip-, 1.2awar/65
RP6 RH Dominguez 67gms, 0.9ip/gm, 78era-, 83fip-, 89xfip-, 0.6awar/65
RP7 RH Rodriguez 66gms, 1.1ip/gm, 76era-, 104fip-, 110xfip-, 0.6awar/65
RP8 LH Fluharty 55gms, 1.0ip/gm, 109era-, 94fip-, 99xfip-, 0.0awar/65
RP9 RH Hoffman 71gms, 1.0ip/gm, 107era-, 116fip-, 89xfip-, -0.1awar/65





Fangraphs Combined Projections for Playoffs Roster Contenders



SP1 RH Bieber 6.0ip/gm, 3.60era, 3.68fip
SP2 RH Gausman 6.0ip/gm, 3.72era, 3.66fip
SP3 RH Yesavage 3.2ip/gm, 3.73era, 3.79fip
SP4 RH Bassitt 3.2ip/gm, 3.95era, 4.04fip
SP5 RH Scherzer 5.4ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.13fip
SP6 RH Berrios 6.0ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.42fip

RP1 RH Varland 1.0ip/gm, 3.31era, 3.53fip
RP2 LH Little 1.0ip/gm, 3.35era, 3.59fip
RP3 RH Hoffman 1.0ip/gm, 3.51era, 3.58fip
RP4 RH Dominguez 1.0ip/gm, 3.45era, 3.65fip
RP5 RH Nance 1.0ip/gm, 3.63era, 3.54fip
RP6 RH Fisher 1.0ip/gm, 3.88era, 3.97fip
RP7 LH Fluharty 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 4.13fip
RP8 RH Rodriguez 1.0ip/gm, 4.07era, 4.12fip
RP9 LH Lauer 1.0ip/gm, 4.24era, 4.42fip

agree Glevin that the yanks are much scarier...but i don't really agree that their pitching is all that good. But their bats are legit scary for sure.

I'd also say the same for the Mariners - it's their bats that make them scary, not so much the pitching.

Congrats, 92-93. I like "money where their mouth is" people, although I like myself as well.

You have now given me a reason to cheer for the Jays to win the WS. :)

Here's a quibble, John!

I'm pretty sure Randy Knorr was not on the post-season roster in 1992. He played a little that August after Myers was traded, but then they made Ed Sprague the backup catcher and Knorr went back to Syracuse. Backup catcher was still Sprague's job in the post-season, although all he actually did was pinch-hit. (Borders caught every inning.)

The extra guys on the 1992 post-season roster, neither of whom saw any game action, would have been Mulliniks and Turner Ward. Who at least were a actual major league players, unlike Willie Canate, Lou Thornton, and Manny Lee (in 1985).

If the ALDS goes 5 games, Crochet will be available for Games 2 & 5.

Thanks, hypobole. What I kept saying to my fellow degenerates before the season was that I wished I could bet on an 80.5 or 81.5 number (and receive much better odds to do so), because I really couldn't see the Jays finishing between 77-81 wins. I thought they would either suck early on and trade Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt etc., or they would hover around .500 and augment the team for one final push with the boys. Alas, the Score did not offer a way to up the win total.

If the good guys do make the World Series, I'll probably just hit the cash out button so I can make it to a game or two.

NL is Reds vs LAD - no obvious stories come to mind right away

From Defector: "Cincinnati will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a best-of-three wild-card series starting Tuesday night. The Reds went 1–5 against the Dodgers this season, and were outscored 30–15. On the other hand, the last time the Reds won a playoff series, it was in a sweep of the Dodgers. Cincinnati's best pitcher that year was Pete Schourek. Their best position player was Reggie Sanders. The current head coach of the Colorado Buffaloes football team played 33 games for those Reds. The year was 1995."

Fangraphs Projections


SP1

TOR RH Bieber (30): 6.0ip/gm, 3.60era, 3.68fip
NYY LH Fried (31): 6.1ip/gm, 3.24era, 3.37fip
BOS LH Crochet (26): 5.7ip/gm, 3.04era, 2.77fip
SEA RH Gilbert (28): 5.7ip/gm, 3.34era, 3.36fip

SP2

TOR RH Gausman (34): 6.0ip/gm, 3.72era, 3.66fip
NYY LH Rodon (32): 5.7ip/gm, 3.99era, 3.89fip
BOS RH Bello (26): 5.7ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.05fip
SEA RH Kirby (27): 5.8ip/gm, 3.43era, 3.34fip

SP3

TOR RH Yesavage (21): 3.2ip/gm, 3.73era, 3.79fip
NYY RH Schlittler (24): 5.2ip/gm, 4.21era, 4.25fip
BOS LH Early (23): 5.5ip/gm, 3.80era, 3.87fip
SEA RH Woo (25): 5.7ip/gm, 3.58era, 3.53fip

SP4

TOR RH Bassitt (36): 3.2ip/gm, 3.95era, 4.04fip
NYY RH Warren (26): 5.0ip/gm, 4.27era, 4.09fip
BOS RH Giolito (30): 5.5ip/gm, 4.68era, 4.43fip
SEA RH Castillo (32): 5.8ip/gm, 3.69era, 3.80fip

SP5

TOR RH Scherzer (40): 5.4ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.13fip
NYY RH Gil (27): 2.2ip/gm, 4.37era, 4.49fip
BOS LH Harrison (23): 3.1ip/gm, 4.55era, 4.37fip
SEA RH Miller (26): 1.7ip/gm, 4.05era, 4.17fip

SP6

TOR RH Berrios (31): 6.0ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.42fip
NYY LH Yarbrough (33): 1.0ip/gm, 4.60era, 4.62fip
BOS RH May (27): 1.0ip/gm, 4.60era, 4.19fip
SEA RH Hancock (26): 1.0ip/gm, 4.51era, 4.66fip






RP1

TOR RH Varland (27): 1.0ip/gm, 3.31era, 3.53fip
NYY RH Williams (30): 1.0ip/gm, 2.86era, 2.90fip
BOS LH Chapman (37): 1.0ip/gm, 2.84era, 2.68fip
SEA RH Munos (26): 1.0ip/gm, 2.68era, 2.74fip


RP2

TOR LH Little (28): 1.0ip/gm, 3.35era, 3.59fip
NYY RH Bednar (30): 1.0ip/gm, 2.83era, 3.12fip
BOS RH Whitlock (29): 1.0ip/gm, 3.18era, 3.05fip
SEA LH Speier (30): 1.0ip/gm, 3.02era, 3.05fip

RP3

TOR RH Hoffman (32): 1.0ip/gm, 3.51era, 3.58fip
NYY RH Cruz (35): 1.0ip/gm, 3.30era, 3.19fip
BOS LH Tolle (22): 1.0ip/gm, 3.58era, 3.59fip
SEA RH Brash (27): 1.0ip/gm, 3.05era, 3.13fip

RP4

TOR RH Dominguez (30): 1.0ip/gm, 3.45era, 3.65fip
NYY RH Doval (27): 1.0ip/gm, 3.18era, 3.50fip
BOS LH Wilson (37): 1.0ip/gm, 3.77era, 3.62fip
SEA LH Ferguson (28): 1.0ip/gm, 3.13era, 3.33fip

RP5

TOR RH Nance (34): 1.0ip/gm, 3.63era, 3.54fip
NYY RH Leiter (34): 1.0ip/gm, 3.79era, 3.84fip
BOS LH Bernardino (33): 1.0ip/gm, 3.93era, 3.83fip
SEA RH Santos (25): 1.0ip/gm, 3.34era, 3.38fip

RP6

TOR RH Fisher (24): 1.0ip/gm, 3.88era, 3.97fip
NYY RH Weaver (31): 1.0ip/gm, 4.05era, 3.95fip
BOS RH Slaten (27): 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 3.92fip
SEA RH Bazardo (29): 1.0ip/gm, 3.79era, 3.74fip

RP7

TOR LH Fluharty (23): 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 4.13fip
NYY LH Headdrick (27): 1.0ip/gm, 4.11era, 4.11fip
BOS RH Weissert (30): 1.0ip/gm, 4.10era, 3.98fip
SEA RH Jackson (33): 1.0ip/gm, 4.14eraa, 4.14fip

RP8

TOR RH Rodriguez (28): 1.0ip/gm, 4.07era, 4.12fip
NYY RH Blackburn (31): 1.0ip/gm, 4.20era, 4.32fip
BOS RH Kelly (30): 1.0ip/gm, 4.16era, 4.15fip
SEA RH Vargas (25): 1.0ip/gm, 4.08era, 4.32fip

RP9

TOR LH Lauer (30): 1.0ip/gm, 4.24era, 4.42fip
NYY LH Hill (35): 1.0ip/gm, 4.33era, 4.28fip
BOS LH Matz (34): 1.0ip/gm, 4.24era, 3.71fip
SEA RH Evans (24): 1.0ip/gm, 4.42era, 4.47fip

Cool. Any conclusions, uglyone?

maybe some.

1. we have pretty great pitching depth.

2. gausman/bieber/yesavage make or break our playoffs. they all have the upside to dominate.

3. we don't have the top RPs the others do. would be a bad idea to try to force any guys into that kind of role for us. maximize creativity in the bullpen

4. unfortunately the projections only do raw ERA and FIP, instead of adjusted ERA- and FIP-, so i think seattle gets an articial boost here, from their park.

5. the jays have bad overall current year pitching stats compared to the playoffs teams, but i'm waiting until the playoffs rosters are announced so i can take a look at fangraphs' "Active Roster" team stats this year, because i think we'll look much better compared to the other teams when everyone is just comparing the guys who'll actually be playing in the playoffs.

A good question now is how did the Jays do vs the 2 possible opponents? 8-5 record against both of them (identical)

• Yankees: 70-59 Runs for-Runs Against
• Red Sox: 53-56 Runs for-Runs Against
• 1000+ OPS: vs NY: Schneider, Springer, Barger, Vlad
• 1000+ OPS: vs Bos: IKF, Varsho
• sub 600 OPS: vs NY: Santander, Clement, Straw, Heinemann
• sub 600 OPS: vs Bos: Kirk, Barger, Gimenez, Santander, Clement, Straw, Schneider

For Jay hitters, clearly the Yankees are preferred, especially for Schneider.

• sub 600 OPS: vs NY: Fisher, Rodriguez, Borucki
• sub 600 OPS: vs Bos: Little, Hoffman (both 205), Nance, Lucas, Fluharty, Berrios
• 1000+ OPS: vs NY: Varland, Schultz, Fluharty, Little
• 1000+ OPS: vs Bos: Schultz, Rodriguez, Scherzer

Interesting eh? Our LH relievers most likely to be on the roster have flopped vs NYY but Borucki who is in AAA might be a good choice (0-5 vs him).

I think I remember from past years that team form when ending the season wasn't predictive of playoff success. That is a 90 win team that ended the last 20 games 4-16 was no less or more likely to win than a 90 win team that ended the last 20 games 16-4. Don't know if that applied at the individual player level as much, but it would be another reason to temper the Yankees expectations despite them seemingly never losing in the last 2 weeks of the season.

IIRC the Jays at 94 wins also means should they make it to the World Series they'll have home field advantage against all the NL teams except Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Notably Dodgers and Cubs were behind them.

But one of the Yankees or Red Sox will be the first team to face and both teams are good teams and somewhat scary but I agree the Yankees seem better than the Red Sox so I'd rather face the Red Sox (I also generally like the Red Sox after university in Boston and dislike the Yankees always, so there's that too).

If you rank the playoff teams by run differential as one way to see how the teams stack up you have the teams as:

1. Brewers +172
2. Yankees +164
3. Cubs +144
4. Dodgers +142
5. Phillies +130
6. Red Sox +110
7. Padres +81
8. Jays +77
9. Mariners +72
10. Reds +35

(non-playoff teams that were better than +35: Rangers +79 despite 81-81; Mets +51 and losing the tie break to the Reds)

If you go by RS the Jays are 4th best playoff team (behind Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers). If you go by RA the Jays are the worst playoff team (721 RA, every other playoff team under 700, next worse Seattle's 694 RA). The RA is possibly even worse on the pitching since the Jays are a better defensive team than many/most/all? of the other playoff teams.

You hope though that the fact that the Jays added likely two playoff starters late, and solidified the bullpen (minus closer) late, means that the playoff Jays pitching is significantly better than the season long version - but still the hitting is what got the Jays here.

I want to face whoever loses the best of three series between red sox and yanks.

(Both teams look good to me.)

Cool chart John Northey, thanks!

Couple of missed links to fix: Borders points to Joe Carter, and Olerud links to Manny Lee. To paraphrase Sesame Street, One of These Things (Is Not Like the Others). :)

I just don't see how the red sox without Anthony have the offensive horses to keep up with TOR/NYY/SEA tbh. And I don't think their pitching is good enough to make up the difference.

What's interesting is gonna be to see the lineup decisiions the teams make for the playoffs - there's some major implications from difficult choices for all the teams.

TOR - do we continue to see Gimenez in the lineup due to his glove, or do we see mostly Schneider? Is Santander on the roster or is it a France or Loperfido or Falefa instead? Does Bo make it back?

NYY - does Rice play C in the playoffs to get Goldschmidt's now just mediocre bat into the lineup? does Volpe stay in the lineup even though the likes of Caballero and Rosario have badly outplayed him?

BOS - does Anthony make it back? and if he does do they force Duran to CF and drop Rafela despite the defensive drop, or do they drop Yoshida/Refsnyer despite the need for offense?


does anyone know if the teams have made any indications yet as to what they're leaning towards?

Don't ask me to back it up, but i've felt that ever since Fisher got called back up on Sep 5, the bullpen which was having an atrocious stretch from August into september almost instantly settled down.

so let me see how the numbers look since then.

Relief Corps since Sep5 (guys with more than 1 appearance):

Fluharty: 4gms, 1.3ip/gm, 0era-, 15fip-, 29xfip-, 5.7awar/65
Lauer: 6gms, 1.6ip/gm, 46era-, 68fip-, 83xfip-, 2.7awar/65
Borucki: 3gms, 1.3ip/gm, 0era-, 79fip-, 90xfip-, 2.2awar/65
Dominguez: 8gms, 0.9ip/gm, 30era-, 50fip-, 72xfip-, 2.0awar/65
Fisher: 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 39era-, 95fip-, 108xfip-, 1.2awar/65
Little: 12gms, 0.8ip/gm, 47era-, 73fip-, 95xfip-, 1.1awar/65
Nance: 9gms, 0.9ip/gm, 77era-, 51fip-, 87xfip-, 1.1awar/65
Hoffman: 9gms, 1.0ip/gm, 26era-, 143fip-, 152xfip-, 1.1awar/65
Varland: 7gms, 1.1ip/gm, 60era-, 103fip-, 87xfip-, 0.9awar/65
Rodriguez: 8gms, 1.0ip/gm, 53era-, 131fip-, 140xfip-, 0.4awar/65


So it's not just a figment of my imagination. That's not to mean it actually has something to do with Fisher's return, or that it means anything going forward, of course. But whatever it is, the pen has simply looked really good for a bit now.

To my eye, Fluharty and Lauer have looked as dominant as the numbers suggest tbh. I don't know what that means for them but right now they look good and confident. Borucki wasn't quite as dominant as those numbers show but i do think he looked good enough to be useful

And Dominguez Fisher Little Nance and Varland have all been solid through and through. Not dominant, but getting the job done without any real stress.


Hoffman has the bizarre line of course - he hasn't been letting in any runs at all, but everything else screams he's been terrible. And it's hard to argue that the eye test hasn't been doing the same. Even if he has to be a lock for the playoffs roster, I know I don't want to see him in a close playoffs game, especially with how well everyone else is throwing right now.

Yariel is a lesser version of Hoffman lately - not quite as good on the run prevention and not as terrible everywhere else, but just pretty shaky overall.



After some shaky times this year, I'm at the point where I feel really good whenever we go to the bullpen. Other than when we bring in our "closer". I've legit gained a bunch of confidence in most all the arms at this point.

Facing Crochet twice in a 5 game series can make up a lot of differences...can always beat them in 4 though.

I expect Gimenez to sit vs. Crochet or Rodon, but not Fried.

France (is he even healthy?) has little utility on the roster, other guys can play 1B in an emergency and he can replace Vladdy the next game in a worst case scenario anyway. That leaves room for everybody else and no decision to make unless Bichette is ready, and who you drop depends on just what Bo is ready for.

Giolito now out of the Wild Card series due to an elbow issue. He would have been Boston’s 3rd starter. Even with their better bullpen I don’t see them beating the Yankees. But youneverknow.

I think hitting is straight forward. It's IKF vs France for last spot and I don't see how IKF doesn't get that with Bo hurt. Just much more valuable than a pinch hitter. Pitching is much harder. Bassit and Scherzer vs relievers who have been good like Fluharty and Nance. I think Yesavage out of pen is a real legitimate option although Jays probably would have tried him in majors there first. Think about it. You can have him start game 3 and pitch maybe 5/6 innings or he can go in relief a few times and pitch similar innings in higher leverage spots. I'd probably just start him myself but I'd think about it.

I'd go Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Lauer against Yankees for sure with all their lefties. Against Red Sox, not sure but maybe the same.

[Hoffman] hasn't been letting in any runs at all, but everything else screams he's been terrible.

Yeah, it's rather interesting. He's not throwing as well, but he's pitching a whole lot better. I hope it's intentional - that sometime in mid-August it dawned on him that he can't just come out, challenge everybody, and simply overpower them. He's not Johan Duran or Aroldis Chapman - his stuff is pretty good, but it's not that good. So he's walking more guys, striking out fewer - but, crucially, he's keeping the ball in the yard. Which is what has been killing him all year.

Good catch jjdynomite - I copied links over so they should've been clean but I guess errors happen. The ones you mentioned have been fixed now.

FYI: stats updated with the latest from FanGraphs and should be final now. The fact Bo came to the party last night without a brace on his leg and was partying with the rest suggests he should be back for the ALDS but I suspect will be limited to DH duty, thus pushing Santander to the bench or off the roster.  Santander in the end was 1 for 10 with 1 walk and a HBP for a wRC+ of 17. Even worse than his pre-injury form of a 63 wRC+. I really can't see any reason to keep him on the roster over, well, anyone. The guy is a pure bat with minimal defensive value and poor baserunning skills. I'd much rather have any of Kiner-Falefa, Schneider, Loperfido, Straw, Lukes, France, Bichette, or even the other guys on the 40 man - Jiménez (defense), or Clase (speed). All of those guys have something they can contribute. Santander, if he gets going, has killer power but with just that single so far I have trouble seeing how he can be of value this year. Every last one of those other guys I listed I have no trouble seeing how they could contribute to a Jays team winning right now.  In 2026 and beyond? Sure, once Santander is at 100% he'll have value. But right now he clearly isn't there.  If during this week in training camp he shows his power is back and he is ready - great. But I damn well wouldn't bet on it.  Bo returning would be the easy excuse to not carry him.

I do find the seeding thing pretty annoying but very familiar for baseball who want to make it easier for lower spending teams to do well. Cleveland and Detroit are two worst teams in the AL and winner will face Seattle who is 2nd seed in the league. First seed will most likely have to play 2nd best team in league in second round.

So does rest schedule and/or home/away play any part in the SP decisions?

is it better for Yesavage to start in TOR or in NY?

(i don't know what i think tbh)

OCT4 Home: SP1
OCT5 Home: SP2
OCT6: OFF
OCT7 Away: SP3
OCT8 Away: SP1 (3 days rest) / SP4
OCT9: OFF
OCT10 Home: SP1 (5 days rest) / SP2 (4 days rest)


i kinda stumped myself it's been too long since we were in an actual playoffs series i forget what we're supposed to do.

In some tournaments where we have qualifying into KO like stages the top seeds get to pick their lower seeds (like in bridge tournaments I play in). Would be interesting if the 1 seed got to pick either the 3/6 or the 4/5 as which they wanted to be paired against (but make them do so before the series so you don't get to know who won). Would be a good reward for the 1 seed, and make sure you'd always rather be the 1 seed than ever want to be the 2 seed (in theory if the 4 and 5 were both much better than the 3 or 6 you might want to be the 2 over the 1, even with the home field disadvantage if 1 plays 2).

I would rather have Bieber pitch 1&5

It might make sense to have Yesavage start a game in TO and the veteran SPs pitch in New York/Boston. Trey looked very comfortable pitching in Rogers Centre the other day.

The Yankees have the scarier offence but the Red Sox having Crochet and that back end of the bullpen scares me a bit. Crochet is better than any Yankee starter and Chapman was almost untouchable all year, and Whitlock was close. In a short series that gives me some anxiety.

As a rule, everyone left at this time of year is extremely frightening. I can always talk myself into the Fear.

I think the logic is that the #1 seed gets "rewarded" by facing a Wild Card team and don't have to face another division winner until the ALCS, but that logic only works if the division winners are clearly the best teams in the league. The Brewers benefit by not having to face the Dodgers in the 2nd round, and instead facing the winner of Cubs/Padres, but that scenario doesn't exist in the AL since the Yankees and Red Sox are probably better than every other non Jays playoff team. The logical thing to do would be to re-seed based on record, but for some reason they don't want to do that, and it's not just MLB that does that.

Regardless, just win. The opponent doesn't matter. I'm sure people were happy to face Seattle in 2022 and Minnesota in 2023 given the alternatives, and look what that led to. Whoever the opponent is, just go out and find a way.

In the end to get to the WS you need to beat everyone in your league, so who they first face is secondary to just winning.

As to rotation I'd go Gausman, Bieber, Bassitt, Yesavage if Bassitt is healthy, if not then use Scherzer in that slot. I'd be tempted to use Yesavage in the 2 hole so he'd be available in relief in game 5 if needed. The thing with Yesavage is you know the pen will be needed for 4 innings in his start so you want a day off after him so game 2 or 4, not 3. Thus I see an advantage of using Yesavage in game 2, then Bieber game 3 with a rested pen after a day off.

So many variables, not the least of which is managing egos, as even in the playoffs you need to do that if you want the best performance from everyone.

Just thinking about did we see any guys do something never done before by a Jay this year? First hitters...

• fWAR: Donaldson '15 is the standard at 8.7. Springer's 5.2 is tied for 30th with Bautista '15 and Rios 2007.
• Defense: Kirk came close - 3rd at 24.5, ahead of him are Jose Molina 2010 and Devon White 1992 (35.1 with much weaker tools than today).
• Offense: Springer is 8th all time with 48.4, far short of Delgado's 2000 at 75.9
• Baserunning: Straw leads with 3.4, tied at #41 with Pillar '16, Springer '24, and Wells '06
• wRC+: Springer's 166 is tied for 4th with Vlad '21 (!), but Bautista '11 leads the pack at 180
• wOBA has Springer at #9 408 tied with McGriff '90, far short of Delgado '00 of course 471
• Slg% has Springer at #14 with 560
• OBP Springer is #17 with 399
• Avg has Bo at #18 with his 311
• Sac Bunts: Straw is tied for 8th all time with 11 (Griffin 82 & 83, Alex Gonzalez '97)
• Doubles: Bo is tied for 10th all time with 44 (Stewart 01, Wells 10, Vlad 24)
• Hard Hit % (2002-now) Vlad is 6th at 40.9% while Clement was on the other end, 11th worst at 23.8%
• Opposite Field%: Kirk is 7th with 31.4%, Bo 9th at 31.2% (wonder if our new hitting coach had something to do with that?)
• Of course, pull% saw Kirk at 28.9% the 2nd lowest ever here (Bo '23 was lowest at 27.0%), Bo this year is 3rd lowest at 28.9%. In fact 4 of the top 5 are Bo seasons.
• MaxEV: new #1 all time Jay - Vlad at 120.4, top 6 are all Vlad (shocking I'm sure) - since 2015
• xBA: Vlad is #2 all time at 316 (321 for Vlad last year is #1) - since 2015
• xwOBA: Springer is #2 all time at 414 (behind Vlad '21's 421) - since 2015

Fun to dig through. I'm sure I'll do the pitchers at some point.

An interesting idea while we wait for Saturday is to think what were the top moments of the year. There were a ton and a lot of recency bias. The Kirk GS and Varsho HR this weekend but there were so many. Springer GS on Canada day, Clase's bomb, Bo's pinch hit HR, there were others as well. Which ones stick out?

Excellent question there - anyone who has a Stathead.com membership can check this link for what cWPA thinks the top plays are, but sadly without I only see #11-300 The top 10 all were over 0.40 cWPA.

By expanding the window to 2020-2025 I get a lot of the highlights.

• 0.75% for Kirk's grand slam final day of regular season.
• 0.57% for IKF driving in 2 with the team down 3-1 vs Houston on September 9th in the bottom of the 9th
• 0.48% for Lukes in a tie game on Sept 26th in the bottom of the 5th hitting a 2 run HR vs Tampa
• 0.45% for Clement doubling in 2 vs the Rays on the 27th (last Friday) in a 0-0 game in the 2nd
• 0.43% for Varsho hitting a 3 run homer vs Tampa May 13th in the bottom of the 8th down 6-4
• 0.43% for Bo hitting a 2 run HR vs Cincinnati Sept 1st in the 9th down 2-1
• 0.40% 2 run HR on Sunday by Kirk (ranked #11 for this year).
• 0.34% for Bo HR down 4-3 bottom of the 9th vs Arizona June 17th
• 0.34% for Kirk double driving in 2 top of 9th vs NYY when down 2-1
• 0.34% for Varsho triple scoring Vlad vs SD in the bottom of the 11th down 6-5
• 0.33% for Fluharty K'ing Aranda (TBR) on the 28th with the bases loaded Jays up 5-4 (had to get a pitching one in)

Obviously this is not a list of the best moments, just a few good memories there, some wrecked by the Jays blowing it after the great play.

To me the biggest was Mason Fluharty's save vs the Dodgers by coming in bases loaded and Ohtani & Betts coming up with just 1 out then K'ing Ohtani and getting Betts to ground out - watch it again here. Just amazing. Love YouTube somedays.

Another item of note: playoff wins range - best combined wins for WS would be Brewers (97) vs Jays (94). Worst combined wins Reds (83) vs Tigers (87). Worst WS winner ever was the 83 win St Louis Cardinals 2006.

Jays 2 WS wins they had 95 & 96 wins.