Boston-NY series should be fun.

Are teams reseeded after the wildcard series?

Jays will play Bos/NYY winner. I hope the series goes three. Yankees scare me a lot more then Red Sox especially with current form. Only one day off between this round and next so game one starters wouldn't be ready until game two of next round.

6:08pm start times for BOS@NYY Games 1 and 2 (and Sportsnet's pre-game show is 5:30pm).

ESPN TV and radio announcers are posted at https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2025/09/2025-mlb-wild-card-series-exclusively-on-espn-networks-starts-september-30/ .

Seeding doesn't change from initial rankings.

The late lamented John Cerutti was most definitely not a relief pitcher in 1989.

Looking at this and reflecting on the last 4 years...

...where does Gausman rank on the list of "best UFA signings by a Blue Jay front office?" Factoring in impact, value for contract, etc.

Considering we are at 4 years of very good to elite production at a reasonable price point, I'd have to say he's on the short list.

nice work John! i know how hard it because i've been working off and on on my own spreadsheet comparing select jays playoffs teams and man is it tough.

think now that the season is over and we have a week off i might be able to finish it tho.

Biggest collapse? Mets, I guess since they are out. Tigers can still recover. Houston had some crippling injuries. Twins are a whole different type of collapse. Curious to see how long it takes them to recover.

Final R/L Splits plausible best lineups:

wRC+ vRHP / vLHP


This year's stats:


1. LF Springer 178 / LF Springer 132
2. SS Bichette 131 / SS Bichette 143
3. 1B Guerrero 129 / 1B Guerrero 163
4. 2B Schneider 155 / 2B Schneider 106
5. CF Varsho 129 / CF Varsho 98
6. C Alejandro 116 / C Alejandro 113
7. 3B Barger 115 / 3B Clement 146
8. DH Santander 70 / DH Santander 32
9. RF Lukes 104 / RF Lukes 99

B. UT Clement 75 / UT Barger 69
B. OF Straw 89 / OF Straw 93
B. IF Gimenez 80 / IF Gimenez 39
B. C Heineman 95 / C Heineman 183

X. UT France 93 / UT France 90
X. OF Loperfido 155 / OF Loperfido 123
X. IF Falefa 86 / IF Falefa 46
X. C Pinto n/a / C Pinto n/a




2 year stats:

1. LF Springer 138 / LF Springer 103
2. SS Bichette 114 / SS Bichette 101
3. 1B Guerrero 147 / 1B Guerrero 165
4. DH Santander 115 / DH Santander 101
5. CF Varsho 103 / CF Varsho 121
6. C Alejandro 106 / C Alejandro 106
7. 3B Barger 104 / 3B Clement 114
8. RF Lukes 111 / RF Lukes 91
9. 2B Schneider 108 / 2B Schneider 76

B. UT Clement 87 / UT Barger 53
B. OF Straw 89 / OF Straw 93
B. IF Gimenez 86 / IF Gimenez 56
B. C Heinenman 90 / C Heineman 169

X. UT France 92 / UT France 94
X. OF Loperfido 99 / OF Loperfido 76
X. IF Falefa 94 / IF Falefa 59
X. C Pintp 166 / C Pinto 50




3 year stats


1. LF Springer 125 / LF Springer 102
2. SS Bichette 116 / SS Bichette 117
3. 1B Guerrero 137 / 1B Guerrero 152
4. DH Santander 116 / DH Santander 109
5. 2B Schneider 112 / 2B Schneider 105
6. 3B Barger 104 / 3B Clement 114
7. C Alejandro 101 / C Alejandro 106
8. CF Varsho 93 / CF Varsho 113
9. RF Lukes 109 / RF Lukes 83

B. UT Clement 90 / UT Barger 53
B. OF Straw 75 / OF Straw 78
B. IF Gimenez 89 / IF Gimenez 75
B. C Heineman 84 / C Heineman 186

X. UT France 98 / UT France 98
X. OF Loperfido 99 / OF Loperfido 76
X. IF Falefa 90 / IF Falefa 65
X. C Pinto 113 / C Pinto 72

Plausible Best Lineup using this year's stats only:


1. DH Springer 586pa,.340babip, .389obp, 166wrc+, 5.8war650
2. 2B Bichette 628pa, .342babip, .357obp, 134wrc+, 3.9war650
3. 1B Guerrero 680pa, .313babip, .381obp, 137wrc+, 3.6war650
4. LF Schneider 227pa, .280babip, .361obp, 127wrc+, 3.7war650
5. CF Varsho 271pa, .250babip, .284obp, 123wrc+, 5.3war650
6. C Alejandro 506pa, .292babip, .348obp, 116wrc+, 5.9war650
7. 3B Barger 502pa, .284babip, .301obp, 107wrc+, 2.8war650
8. SS Clement 588pa, .296babip, .313obp, 98wrc+, 3.5war650
9. RF Lukes 438pa, .273babip, .323obp, 103wrc+, 2.7war650

B. UT Santander 221pa, .219babip, .271obp, 61wrc+, -2.6war650
B. OF Straw 299pa, .308babip, .313obp, 91wrc+, 3.9war650
B. IF Gimenez 369pa, .238babip, .285obp, 70wrc+, 1.8war650
B. C Heineman 174pa, .342babip, .361obp, 120wrc+, 7.8war650

X. UT France 490pa, .300babip, .320obp, 92wrc+, 1.2war650
X. OF Loperfido 104pa, .431babip, .379obp, 148wrc+, 4.4war650
X. IF Falefa 459pa, .314babipm, .297obp, 75wrc+, 1.0war650
X. C Pinto 0pa




Using Fangraphs combined projections:

1. LF Springer 127wrc+
2. SS Bichette 123wrc+
3. 1B Guerrero 144wrc+
4. DH Santander 111wrc+
5. C Alejandro 116wrc+
6. CF Varsho 105wrc+
7. 2B Schneider 109wrc+
8. 3B Barger 105wrc+
9. RF Lukes 107wrc+

B. UT Clement 97wrc+
B. OF Straw 78wrc+
B. IF Gimenez 95wrc+
B. C Heineman 90wrc+

X. UT France 102wrc+
X. OF Loperfido 95wrc+
X. IF Falefa 80wrc+
X. C Valenzuela 63wrc+

It's easy to say that we should be rooting for the Red Sox because of Judge and Stanton, but Crochet owns the Blue Jays and the Jays would potentially face him twice in the ALDS.

It shouldn't be that a team that plays in the Wild Card can throw its best pitcher in Game 1 of that series, and then still have them available for Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS. Perhaps MLB should punish the lesser teams by making them play the very next day if their WC series goes the distance.

people are scared of the yanks because they ended the season so hot.....except we all knew that they had a patsy schedule to end the season and all of those teams were mailing it in.

the last teams the yanks played that were good and actually trying was the four series set against HOU TOR DET BOS and they went 7-5 with a -5 run diff. Solid, but not at all scary

At the end of that stretch, with the jays winning a bunch in a row to get a 5gm lead, everyone thought the jays had the division wrapped.

So the yanks then entered their last stretch of the year against a patsy sked that weren't even trying, and with the yanks in a nothing to lose mindset because everyone thought the division was over. Only at that point did the yanks go on their 11-2 run.

and unfortunately the jays when they got that 5 game lead on Sep 15, kinda took their foot off the gas / had trouble dealing with the expectations and went on a remarkable ice cold hitting streak that was maybe the worst in franchise history and had a 1-6 run to let the yanks back in it.

Of course as soon as the Yanks tied the jays in the standings, the jays then ripped off 4 in a row with a +20 run diff to seal the division.

NL is Reds vs LAD - no obvious stories come to mind right away

As a sign of just how old I am, my instinct, when I saw this remark, was that they were recently longstanding rivals in the NL West. Then I do the math and compute that recently means half a century ago.

it's still the same yankees that the dodgers let beat themselves last year. it'll be fun watching them kick the ball around the field.

from the AL, i think the mariners are the team to look out for because of the pitching. our '77 cousins would be a good series, though the one i'm least confident about. if judge and stanton stay hot...that's another issue, but judge also has a career .768 OPS in the postseason. so maybe not?

It was mentioned on Saturday's broadcast that it is doubtful that Bo plays in the series against either Boston or New York. He is still hitting off a tee and hasn't faced any velocity and is wearing a knee brace. He looked like he was walking pretty slowly and gingerly as he came onto the field for the player's celebration.

Magpie - as I mentioned this is how the players were used in the playoffs, not the regular season, as that is all that matters now. The playoffs. In the 1989 playoffs Cerutti was used twice out of the pen - 2 2/3 IP. Cito felt he was the #5 starter and he needed 4 starters - Stieb got 2 starts, then 1 each for Key, Stottlemyre, and Flannagan. What was funny is Cerutti that year was better than all of them in ERA and 2nd to Stieb in bWAR but all 5 had ERA's in the 3's (ERA+ from 93 to 119). My guess is Cerutti had the most pen time in the past thus was felt to be the one most suited to handling relief duties that playoff season, mixed with David Wells being the only decent LH reliever on the team (Cerutti was LH as most of us old times know). For 'holy crap' I just noticed Cerutti's K/9 was down to 3.0 that year. Hard to imagine a guy having a 3.07 ERA today with 3.0 K/9 - or him even being allowed to start 1 game let alone 31.

I have never used a gambling website. Haven't gambled since I helped bankrupt a bookie about 50 years ago. I will occasionally bet with acquaintances if I know the odds are stacked in my favour. Haven't lost a cuttlefish bet yet.

Reason I bring this up is I'm wondering if anyone with a rosy preseason prediction for the Jays actually laid a bet, since all the gambling sites had them as a sub-80 win team.

Chuck - I identify with that. My favorite moment in Jays history was 1985 when they clinched - so exciting to see Bell catch that final out and the pure joy on his face as he did. 2nd last day of the season with the Yankees charging hard after they got to our ace kid closer (Henke) the night before. Different era - Doyle Alexander throwing a complete game (faced 32 batters, no pitch count), his 5th in 7 games to finish the regular season. Wow. Imagine someone doing that today. We were all 'wow' when Gausman finished 1 game.

I put $1,000 on the Jays over 76.5 wins, and $100 on a World Series win at 60:1 because I thought there was excellent value on both numbers. The cashout currently stands at $546.04, and didn't move that much when they won yesterday.

this is how the players were used in the playoffs, not the regular season
Sorry, got engrossed in the Data Table and missed the explanation.

Fun fact: Ceruti pitched 205.1 innings that year, same as Garret Crochet this year. Crochet led the league in Innings Pitched. Cerutti was 24th.

In '91 only Borders was used behind the plate (no idea who the backup for the playoffs was).

It was Greg Myers, but Gaston wouldn't use him in the post-season, despite the fact that a) Myers could actually catch Candiotti's knuckleball and Borders couldn't, and b) Myers had totally worn out Minnesota pitching that season. It still makes me crazy remembering.

Yankees scare me because they are a very good team. Reds Sox don't scare me because they aren't. Yankees have Fried, Rodon, and a couple of other options that are decent. Red Sox have Crochet who is better than any of those guys but Giolito/Bello, their 2/3 guys had FIPs of 4.17/4.19 which would make them 4th/5th starters on the Yankees. Crochet is going first game so wouldn't go until game 2 in next round which means starting 1/5 games which is not the same impact as 1/3 (obviously).

Yankees were number one in baseball in WRC+ and in HR's. Boston had a 103 WRC+ and finished 15th in HR's. Yankees had 6 regulars with a 125 WRC+ or better (one better being 204!). It's an extremely difficult lineup to navigate especially for a staff that is very HR prone. Red Sox had 2 guys with 125 WRC+ and one is hurt. I'll take my chances with one start from Crochet over just a better team.

Final Pitching Stats for Playoffs Roster Contenders


SP1 RH Gausman 32gms, 6.0ip/gm, 88era-, 80fip-, 90xfip-, 4.0awar/32
SP2 RH Yesavage 3gms, 4.7ip/gm, 79era-, 44fip-, 77xfip-, 4.3awar/32
SP3 RH Bieber 7gms, 5.8ip/gm, 88era-, 106fip-, 80xfip-, 2.7awar/32
SP4 RH Bassitt 32gms, 5.3ip/gm, 97era-, 95fip-, 92xfip-, 2.3awar/32
SP5 RH Berrios 31gms, 5.4ip/gm, 103era-, 110fip-, 106xfip-, 1.4awar/32
SP6 RH Scherzer 17gms, 5.0ip/gm, 127era-, 118fip-, 109xfip-, 0.6awar/32


RP1 RH Fisher 52gms, 1.0ip/gm, 66era-, 71fip-, 87xfip-, 1.2awar/65
RP2 LH Lauer 28gms, 3.7ip/gm, 78era-, 91fip-, 99xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP3 RH Varland 74gms, 1.0ip/gm, 73era-, 84fip-, 74xfip-, 1.1awar/65
RP4 LH Little 79gms, 0.9ip/gm, 74era-, 68fip-, 80xfip-, 1.0awar/65
RP5 RH Nance 30gms, 1.1ip/gm, 49era-, 43fip-, 67xfip-, 1.2awar/65
RP6 RH Dominguez 67gms, 0.9ip/gm, 78era-, 83fip-, 89xfip-, 0.6awar/65
RP7 RH Rodriguez 66gms, 1.1ip/gm, 76era-, 104fip-, 110xfip-, 0.6awar/65
RP8 LH Fluharty 55gms, 1.0ip/gm, 109era-, 94fip-, 99xfip-, 0.0awar/65
RP9 RH Hoffman 71gms, 1.0ip/gm, 107era-, 116fip-, 89xfip-, -0.1awar/65





Fangraphs Combined Projections for Playoffs Roster Contenders



SP1 RH Bieber 6.0ip/gm, 3.60era, 3.68fip
SP2 RH Gausman 6.0ip/gm, 3.72era, 3.66fip
SP3 RH Yesavage 3.2ip/gm, 3.73era, 3.79fip
SP4 RH Bassitt 3.2ip/gm, 3.95era, 4.04fip
SP5 RH Scherzer 5.4ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.13fip
SP6 RH Berrios 6.0ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.42fip

RP1 RH Varland 1.0ip/gm, 3.31era, 3.53fip
RP2 LH Little 1.0ip/gm, 3.35era, 3.59fip
RP3 RH Hoffman 1.0ip/gm, 3.51era, 3.58fip
RP4 RH Dominguez 1.0ip/gm, 3.45era, 3.65fip
RP5 RH Nance 1.0ip/gm, 3.63era, 3.54fip
RP6 RH Fisher 1.0ip/gm, 3.88era, 3.97fip
RP7 LH Fluharty 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 4.13fip
RP8 RH Rodriguez 1.0ip/gm, 4.07era, 4.12fip
RP9 LH Lauer 1.0ip/gm, 4.24era, 4.42fip

agree Glevin that the yanks are much scarier...but i don't really agree that their pitching is all that good. But their bats are legit scary for sure.

I'd also say the same for the Mariners - it's their bats that make them scary, not so much the pitching.

Congrats, 92-93. I like "money where their mouth is" people, although I like myself as well.

You have now given me a reason to cheer for the Jays to win the WS. :)

Here's a quibble, John!

I'm pretty sure Randy Knorr was not on the post-season roster in 1992. He played a little that August after Myers was traded, but then they made Ed Sprague the backup catcher and Knorr went back to Syracuse. Backup catcher was still Sprague's job in the post-season, although all he actually did was pinch-hit. (Borders caught every inning.)

The extra guys on the 1992 post-season roster, neither of whom saw any game action, would have been Mulliniks and Turner Ward. Who at least were a actual major league players, unlike Willie Canate, Lou Thornton, and Manny Lee (in 1985).

If the ALDS goes 5 games, Crochet will be available for Games 2 & 5.

Thanks, hypobole. What I kept saying to my fellow degenerates before the season was that I wished I could bet on an 80.5 or 81.5 number (and receive much better odds to do so), because I really couldn't see the Jays finishing between 77-81 wins. I thought they would either suck early on and trade Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt etc., or they would hover around .500 and augment the team for one final push with the boys. Alas, the Score did not offer a way to up the win total.

If the good guys do make the World Series, I'll probably just hit the cash out button so I can make it to a game or two.

NL is Reds vs LAD - no obvious stories come to mind right away

From Defector: "Cincinnati will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a best-of-three wild-card series starting Tuesday night. The Reds went 1–5 against the Dodgers this season, and were outscored 30–15. On the other hand, the last time the Reds won a playoff series, it was in a sweep of the Dodgers. Cincinnati's best pitcher that year was Pete Schourek. Their best position player was Reggie Sanders. The current head coach of the Colorado Buffaloes football team played 33 games for those Reds. The year was 1995."

Fangraphs Projections


SP1

TOR RH Bieber (30): 6.0ip/gm, 3.60era, 3.68fip
NYY LH Fried (31): 6.1ip/gm, 3.24era, 3.37fip
BOS LH Crochet (26): 5.7ip/gm, 3.04era, 2.77fip
SEA RH Gilbert (28): 5.7ip/gm, 3.34era, 3.36fip

SP2

TOR RH Gausman (34): 6.0ip/gm, 3.72era, 3.66fip
NYY LH Rodon (32): 5.7ip/gm, 3.99era, 3.89fip
BOS RH Bello (26): 5.7ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.05fip
SEA RH Kirby (27): 5.8ip/gm, 3.43era, 3.34fip

SP3

TOR RH Yesavage (21): 3.2ip/gm, 3.73era, 3.79fip
NYY RH Schlittler (24): 5.2ip/gm, 4.21era, 4.25fip
BOS LH Early (23): 5.5ip/gm, 3.80era, 3.87fip
SEA RH Woo (25): 5.7ip/gm, 3.58era, 3.53fip

SP4

TOR RH Bassitt (36): 3.2ip/gm, 3.95era, 4.04fip
NYY RH Warren (26): 5.0ip/gm, 4.27era, 4.09fip
BOS RH Giolito (30): 5.5ip/gm, 4.68era, 4.43fip
SEA RH Castillo (32): 5.8ip/gm, 3.69era, 3.80fip

SP5

TOR RH Scherzer (40): 5.4ip/gm, 4.09era, 4.13fip
NYY RH Gil (27): 2.2ip/gm, 4.37era, 4.49fip
BOS LH Harrison (23): 3.1ip/gm, 4.55era, 4.37fip
SEA RH Miller (26): 1.7ip/gm, 4.05era, 4.17fip

SP6

TOR RH Berrios (31): 6.0ip/gm, 4.32era, 4.42fip
NYY LH Yarbrough (33): 1.0ip/gm, 4.60era, 4.62fip
BOS RH May (27): 1.0ip/gm, 4.60era, 4.19fip
SEA RH Hancock (26): 1.0ip/gm, 4.51era, 4.66fip






RP1

TOR RH Varland (27): 1.0ip/gm, 3.31era, 3.53fip
NYY RH Williams (30): 1.0ip/gm, 2.86era, 2.90fip
BOS LH Chapman (37): 1.0ip/gm, 2.84era, 2.68fip
SEA RH Munos (26): 1.0ip/gm, 2.68era, 2.74fip


RP2

TOR LH Little (28): 1.0ip/gm, 3.35era, 3.59fip
NYY RH Bednar (30): 1.0ip/gm, 2.83era, 3.12fip
BOS RH Whitlock (29): 1.0ip/gm, 3.18era, 3.05fip
SEA LH Speier (30): 1.0ip/gm, 3.02era, 3.05fip

RP3

TOR RH Hoffman (32): 1.0ip/gm, 3.51era, 3.58fip
NYY RH Cruz (35): 1.0ip/gm, 3.30era, 3.19fip
BOS LH Tolle (22): 1.0ip/gm, 3.58era, 3.59fip
SEA RH Brash (27): 1.0ip/gm, 3.05era, 3.13fip

RP4

TOR RH Dominguez (30): 1.0ip/gm, 3.45era, 3.65fip
NYY RH Doval (27): 1.0ip/gm, 3.18era, 3.50fip
BOS LH Wilson (37): 1.0ip/gm, 3.77era, 3.62fip
SEA LH Ferguson (28): 1.0ip/gm, 3.13era, 3.33fip

RP5

TOR RH Nance (34): 1.0ip/gm, 3.63era, 3.54fip
NYY RH Leiter (34): 1.0ip/gm, 3.79era, 3.84fip
BOS LH Bernardino (33): 1.0ip/gm, 3.93era, 3.83fip
SEA RH Santos (25): 1.0ip/gm, 3.34era, 3.38fip

RP6

TOR RH Fisher (24): 1.0ip/gm, 3.88era, 3.97fip
NYY RH Weaver (31): 1.0ip/gm, 4.05era, 3.95fip
BOS RH Slaten (27): 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 3.92fip
SEA RH Bazardo (29): 1.0ip/gm, 3.79era, 3.74fip

RP7

TOR LH Fluharty (23): 1.0ip/gm, 4.01era, 4.13fip
NYY LH Headdrick (27): 1.0ip/gm, 4.11era, 4.11fip
BOS RH Weissert (30): 1.0ip/gm, 4.10era, 3.98fip
SEA RH Jackson (33): 1.0ip/gm, 4.14eraa, 4.14fip

RP8

TOR RH Rodriguez (28): 1.0ip/gm, 4.07era, 4.12fip
NYY RH Blackburn (31): 1.0ip/gm, 4.20era, 4.32fip
BOS RH Kelly (30): 1.0ip/gm, 4.16era, 4.15fip
SEA RH Vargas (25): 1.0ip/gm, 4.08era, 4.32fip

RP9

TOR LH Lauer (30): 1.0ip/gm, 4.24era, 4.42fip
NYY LH Hill (35): 1.0ip/gm, 4.33era, 4.28fip
BOS LH Matz (34): 1.0ip/gm, 4.24era, 3.71fip
SEA RH Evans (24): 1.0ip/gm, 4.42era, 4.47fip

Cool. Any conclusions, uglyone?

maybe some.

1. we have pretty great pitching depth.

2. gausman/bieber/yesavage make or break our playoffs. they all have the upside to dominate.

3. we don't have the top RPs the others do. would be a bad idea to try to force any guys into that kind of role for us. maximize creativity in the bullpen

4. unfortunately the projections only do raw ERA and FIP, instead of adjusted ERA- and FIP-, so i think seattle gets an articial boost here, from their park.

5. the jays have bad overall current year pitching stats compared to the playoffs teams, but i'm waiting until the playoffs rosters are announced so i can take a look at fangraphs' "Active Roster" team stats this year, because i think we'll look much better compared to the other teams when everyone is just comparing the guys who'll actually be playing in the playoffs.

A good question now is how did the Jays do vs the 2 possible opponents? 8-5 record against both of them (identical)

• Yankees: 70-59 Runs for-Runs Against
• Red Sox: 53-56 Runs for-Runs Against
• 1000+ OPS: vs NY: Schneider, Springer, Barger, Vlad
• 1000+ OPS: vs Bos: IKF, Varsho
• sub 600 OPS: vs NY: Santander, Clement, Straw, Heinemann
• sub 600 OPS: vs Bos: Kirk, Barger, Gimenez, Santander, Clement, Straw, Schneider

For Jay hitters, clearly the Yankees are preferred, especially for Schneider.

• sub 600 OPS: vs NY: Fisher, Rodriguez, Borucki
• sub 600 OPS: vs Bos: Little, Hoffman (both 205), Nance, Lucas, Fluharty, Berrios
• 1000+ OPS: vs NY: Varland, Schultz, Fluharty, Little
• 1000+ OPS: vs Bos: Schultz, Rodriguez, Scherzer

Interesting eh? Our LH relievers most likely to be on the roster have flopped vs NYY but Borucki who is in AAA might be a good choice (0-5 vs him).

I think I remember from past years that team form when ending the season wasn't predictive of playoff success. That is a 90 win team that ended the last 20 games 4-16 was no less or more likely to win than a 90 win team that ended the last 20 games 16-4. Don't know if that applied at the individual player level as much, but it would be another reason to temper the Yankees expectations despite them seemingly never losing in the last 2 weeks of the season.

IIRC the Jays at 94 wins also means should they make it to the World Series they'll have home field advantage against all the NL teams except Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Notably Dodgers and Cubs were behind them.

But one of the Yankees or Red Sox will be the first team to face and both teams are good teams and somewhat scary but I agree the Yankees seem better than the Red Sox so I'd rather face the Red Sox (I also generally like the Red Sox after university in Boston and dislike the Yankees always, so there's that too).

If you rank the playoff teams by run differential as one way to see how the teams stack up you have the teams as:

1. Brewers +172
2. Yankees +164
3. Cubs +144
4. Dodgers +142
5. Phillies +130
6. Red Sox +110
7. Padres +81
8. Jays +77
9. Mariners +72
10. Reds +35

(non-playoff teams that were better than +35: Rangers +79 despite 81-81; Mets +51 and losing the tie break to the Reds)

If you go by RS the Jays are 4th best playoff team (behind Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers). If you go by RA the Jays are the worst playoff team (721 RA, every other playoff team under 700, next worse Seattle's 694 RA). The RA is possibly even worse on the pitching since the Jays are a better defensive team than many/most/all? of the other playoff teams.

You hope though that the fact that the Jays added likely two playoff starters late, and solidified the bullpen (minus closer) late, means that the playoff Jays pitching is significantly better than the season long version - but still the hitting is what got the Jays here.

I want to face whoever loses the best of three series between red sox and yanks.

(Both teams look good to me.)

Cool chart John Northey, thanks!

Couple of missed links to fix: Borders points to Joe Carter, and Olerud links to Manny Lee. To paraphrase Sesame Street, One of These Things (Is Not Like the Others). :)

I just don't see how the red sox without Anthony have the offensive horses to keep up with TOR/NYY/SEA tbh. And I don't think their pitching is good enough to make up the difference.

What's interesting is gonna be to see the lineup decisiions the teams make for the playoffs - there's some major implications from difficult choices for all the teams.

TOR - do we continue to see Gimenez in the lineup due to his glove, or do we see mostly Schneider? Is Santander on the roster or is it a France or Loperfido or Falefa instead? Does Bo make it back?

NYY - does Rice play C in the playoffs to get Goldschmidt's now just mediocre bat into the lineup? does Volpe stay in the lineup even though the likes of Caballero and Rosario have badly outplayed him?

BOS - does Anthony make it back? and if he does do they force Duran to CF and drop Rafela despite the defensive drop, or do they drop Yoshida/Refsnyer despite the need for offense?


does anyone know if the teams have made any indications yet as to what they're leaning towards?

Don't ask me to back it up, but i've felt that ever since Fisher got called back up on Sep 5, the bullpen which was having an atrocious stretch from August into september almost instantly settled down.

so let me see how the numbers look since then.

Relief Corps since Sep5 (guys with more than 1 appearance):

Fluharty: 4gms, 1.3ip/gm, 0era-, 15fip-, 29xfip-, 5.7awar/65
Lauer: 6gms, 1.6ip/gm, 46era-, 68fip-, 83xfip-, 2.7awar/65
Borucki: 3gms, 1.3ip/gm, 0era-, 79fip-, 90xfip-, 2.2awar/65
Dominguez: 8gms, 0.9ip/gm, 30era-, 50fip-, 72xfip-, 2.0awar/65
Fisher: 11gms, 1.0ip/gm, 39era-, 95fip-, 108xfip-, 1.2awar/65
Little: 12gms, 0.8ip/gm, 47era-, 73fip-, 95xfip-, 1.1awar/65
Nance: 9gms, 0.9ip/gm, 77era-, 51fip-, 87xfip-, 1.1awar/65
Hoffman: 9gms, 1.0ip/gm, 26era-, 143fip-, 152xfip-, 1.1awar/65
Varland: 7gms, 1.1ip/gm, 60era-, 103fip-, 87xfip-, 0.9awar/65
Rodriguez: 8gms, 1.0ip/gm, 53era-, 131fip-, 140xfip-, 0.4awar/65


So it's not just a figment of my imagination. That's not to mean it actually has something to do with Fisher's return, or that it means anything going forward, of course. But whatever it is, the pen has simply looked really good for a bit now.

To my eye, Fluharty and Lauer have looked as dominant as the numbers suggest tbh. I don't know what that means for them but right now they look good and confident. Borucki wasn't quite as dominant as those numbers show but i do think he looked good enough to be useful

And Dominguez Fisher Little Nance and Varland have all been solid through and through. Not dominant, but getting the job done without any real stress.


Hoffman has the bizarre line of course - he hasn't been letting in any runs at all, but everything else screams he's been terrible. And it's hard to argue that the eye test hasn't been doing the same. Even if he has to be a lock for the playoffs roster, I know I don't want to see him in a close playoffs game, especially with how well everyone else is throwing right now.

Yariel is a lesser version of Hoffman lately - not quite as good on the run prevention and not as terrible everywhere else, but just pretty shaky overall.



After some shaky times this year, I'm at the point where I feel really good whenever we go to the bullpen. Other than when we bring in our "closer". I've legit gained a bunch of confidence in most all the arms at this point.

Facing Crochet twice in a 5 game series can make up a lot of differences...can always beat them in 4 though.

I expect Gimenez to sit vs. Crochet or Rodon, but not Fried.

France (is he even healthy?) has little utility on the roster, other guys can play 1B in an emergency and he can replace Vladdy the next game in a worst case scenario anyway. That leaves room for everybody else and no decision to make unless Bichette is ready, and who you drop depends on just what Bo is ready for.

Giolito now out of the Wild Card series due to an elbow issue. He would have been Boston’s 3rd starter. Even with their better bullpen I don’t see them beating the Yankees. But youneverknow.

I think hitting is straight forward. It's IKF vs France for last spot and I don't see how IKF doesn't get that with Bo hurt. Just much more valuable than a pinch hitter. Pitching is much harder. Bassit and Scherzer vs relievers who have been good like Fluharty and Nance. I think Yesavage out of pen is a real legitimate option although Jays probably would have tried him in majors there first. Think about it. You can have him start game 3 and pitch maybe 5/6 innings or he can go in relief a few times and pitch similar innings in higher leverage spots. I'd probably just start him myself but I'd think about it.

I'd go Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Lauer against Yankees for sure with all their lefties. Against Red Sox, not sure but maybe the same.

[Hoffman] hasn't been letting in any runs at all, but everything else screams he's been terrible.

Yeah, it's rather interesting. He's not throwing as well, but he's pitching a whole lot better. I hope it's intentional - that sometime in mid-August it dawned on him that he can't just come out, challenge everybody, and simply overpower them. He's not Johan Duran or Aroldis Chapman - his stuff is pretty good, but it's not that good. So he's walking more guys, striking out fewer - but, crucially, he's keeping the ball in the yard. Which is what has been killing him all year.

Good catch jjdynomite - I copied links over so they should've been clean but I guess errors happen. The ones you mentioned have been fixed now.

FYI: stats updated with the latest from FanGraphs and should be final now. The fact Bo came to the party last night without a brace on his leg and was partying with the rest suggests he should be back for the ALDS but I suspect will be limited to DH duty, thus pushing Santander to the bench or off the roster.  Santander in the end was 1 for 10 with 1 walk and a HBP for a wRC+ of 17. Even worse than his pre-injury form of a 63 wRC+. I really can't see any reason to keep him on the roster over, well, anyone. The guy is a pure bat with minimal defensive value and poor baserunning skills. I'd much rather have any of Kiner-Falefa, Schneider, Loperfido, Straw, Lukes, France, Bichette, or even the other guys on the 40 man - Jiménez (defense), or Clase (speed). All of those guys have something they can contribute. Santander, if he gets going, has killer power but with just that single so far I have trouble seeing how he can be of value this year. Every last one of those other guys I listed I have no trouble seeing how they could contribute to a Jays team winning right now.  In 2026 and beyond? Sure, once Santander is at 100% he'll have value. But right now he clearly isn't there.  If during this week in training camp he shows his power is back and he is ready - great. But I damn well wouldn't bet on it.  Bo returning would be the easy excuse to not carry him.

I do find the seeding thing pretty annoying but very familiar for baseball who want to make it easier for lower spending teams to do well. Cleveland and Detroit are two worst teams in the AL and winner will face Seattle who is 2nd seed in the league. First seed will most likely have to play 2nd best team in league in second round.

So does rest schedule and/or home/away play any part in the SP decisions?

is it better for Yesavage to start in TOR or in NY?

(i don't know what i think tbh)

OCT4 Home: SP1
OCT5 Home: SP2
OCT6: OFF
OCT7 Away: SP3
OCT8 Away: SP1 (3 days rest) / SP4
OCT9: OFF
OCT10 Home: SP1 (5 days rest) / SP2 (4 days rest)


i kinda stumped myself it's been too long since we were in an actual playoffs series i forget what we're supposed to do.

In some tournaments where we have qualifying into KO like stages the top seeds get to pick their lower seeds (like in bridge tournaments I play in). Would be interesting if the 1 seed got to pick either the 3/6 or the 4/5 as which they wanted to be paired against (but make them do so before the series so you don't get to know who won). Would be a good reward for the 1 seed, and make sure you'd always rather be the 1 seed than ever want to be the 2 seed (in theory if the 4 and 5 were both much better than the 3 or 6 you might want to be the 2 over the 1, even with the home field disadvantage if 1 plays 2).

I would rather have Bieber pitch 1&5

It might make sense to have Yesavage start a game in TO and the veteran SPs pitch in New York/Boston. Trey looked very comfortable pitching in Rogers Centre the other day.

The Yankees have the scarier offence but the Red Sox having Crochet and that back end of the bullpen scares me a bit. Crochet is better than any Yankee starter and Chapman was almost untouchable all year, and Whitlock was close. In a short series that gives me some anxiety.

As a rule, everyone left at this time of year is extremely frightening. I can always talk myself into the Fear.

I think the logic is that the #1 seed gets "rewarded" by facing a Wild Card team and don't have to face another division winner until the ALCS, but that logic only works if the division winners are clearly the best teams in the league. The Brewers benefit by not having to face the Dodgers in the 2nd round, and instead facing the winner of Cubs/Padres, but that scenario doesn't exist in the AL since the Yankees and Red Sox are probably better than every other non Jays playoff team. The logical thing to do would be to re-seed based on record, but for some reason they don't want to do that, and it's not just MLB that does that.

Regardless, just win. The opponent doesn't matter. I'm sure people were happy to face Seattle in 2022 and Minnesota in 2023 given the alternatives, and look what that led to. Whoever the opponent is, just go out and find a way.

In the end to get to the WS you need to beat everyone in your league, so who they first face is secondary to just winning.

As to rotation I'd go Gausman, Bieber, Bassitt, Yesavage if Bassitt is healthy, if not then use Scherzer in that slot. I'd be tempted to use Yesavage in the 2 hole so he'd be available in relief in game 5 if needed. The thing with Yesavage is you know the pen will be needed for 4 innings in his start so you want a day off after him so game 2 or 4, not 3. Thus I see an advantage of using Yesavage in game 2, then Bieber game 3 with a rested pen after a day off.

So many variables, not the least of which is managing egos, as even in the playoffs you need to do that if you want the best performance from everyone.

Just thinking about did we see any guys do something never done before by a Jay this year? First hitters...

• fWAR: Donaldson '15 is the standard at 8.7. Springer's 5.2 is tied for 30th with Bautista '15 and Rios 2007.
• Defense: Kirk came close - 3rd at 24.5, ahead of him are Jose Molina 2010 and Devon White 1992 (35.1 with much weaker tools than today).
• Offense: Springer is 8th all time with 48.4, far short of Delgado's 2000 at 75.9
• Baserunning: Straw leads with 3.4, tied at #41 with Pillar '16, Springer '24, and Wells '06
• wRC+: Springer's 166 is tied for 4th with Vlad '21 (!), but Bautista '11 leads the pack at 180
• wOBA has Springer at #9 408 tied with McGriff '90, far short of Delgado '00 of course 471
• Slg% has Springer at #14 with 560
• OBP Springer is #17 with 399
• Avg has Bo at #18 with his 311
• Sac Bunts: Straw is tied for 8th all time with 11 (Griffin 82 & 83, Alex Gonzalez '97)
• Doubles: Bo is tied for 10th all time with 44 (Stewart 01, Wells 10, Vlad 24)
• Hard Hit % (2002-now) Vlad is 6th at 40.9% while Clement was on the other end, 11th worst at 23.8%
• Opposite Field%: Kirk is 7th with 31.4%, Bo 9th at 31.2% (wonder if our new hitting coach had something to do with that?)
• Of course, pull% saw Kirk at 28.9% the 2nd lowest ever here (Bo '23 was lowest at 27.0%), Bo this year is 3rd lowest at 28.9%. In fact 4 of the top 5 are Bo seasons.
• MaxEV: new #1 all time Jay - Vlad at 120.4, top 6 are all Vlad (shocking I'm sure) - since 2015
• xBA: Vlad is #2 all time at 316 (321 for Vlad last year is #1) - since 2015
• xwOBA: Springer is #2 all time at 414 (behind Vlad '21's 421) - since 2015

Fun to dig through. I'm sure I'll do the pitchers at some point.

An interesting idea while we wait for Saturday is to think what were the top moments of the year. There were a ton and a lot of recency bias. The Kirk GS and Varsho HR this weekend but there were so many. Springer GS on Canada day, Clase's bomb, Bo's pinch hit HR, there were others as well. Which ones stick out?

Excellent question there - anyone who has a Stathead.com membership can check this link for what cWPA thinks the top plays are, but sadly without I only see #11-300 The top 10 all were over 0.40 cWPA.

By expanding the window to 2020-2025 I get a lot of the highlights.

• 0.75% for Kirk's grand slam final day of regular season.
• 0.57% for IKF driving in 2 with the team down 3-1 vs Houston on September 9th in the bottom of the 9th
• 0.48% for Lukes in a tie game on Sept 26th in the bottom of the 5th hitting a 2 run HR vs Tampa
• 0.45% for Clement doubling in 2 vs the Rays on the 27th (last Friday) in a 0-0 game in the 2nd
• 0.43% for Varsho hitting a 3 run homer vs Tampa May 13th in the bottom of the 8th down 6-4
• 0.43% for Bo hitting a 2 run HR vs Cincinnati Sept 1st in the 9th down 2-1
• 0.40% 2 run HR on Sunday by Kirk (ranked #11 for this year).
• 0.34% for Bo HR down 4-3 bottom of the 9th vs Arizona June 17th
• 0.34% for Kirk double driving in 2 top of 9th vs NYY when down 2-1
• 0.34% for Varsho triple scoring Vlad vs SD in the bottom of the 11th down 6-5
• 0.33% for Fluharty K'ing Aranda (TBR) on the 28th with the bases loaded Jays up 5-4 (had to get a pitching one in)

Obviously this is not a list of the best moments, just a few good memories there, some wrecked by the Jays blowing it after the great play.

To me the biggest was Mason Fluharty's save vs the Dodgers by coming in bases loaded and Ohtani & Betts coming up with just 1 out then K'ing Ohtani and getting Betts to ground out - watch it again here. Just amazing. Love YouTube somedays.

Another item of note: playoff wins range - best combined wins for WS would be Brewers (97) vs Jays (94). Worst combined wins Reds (83) vs Tigers (87). Worst WS winner ever was the 83 win St Louis Cardinals 2006.

Jays 2 WS wins they had 95 & 96 wins.

One of the cool things about that cWPA list is that the top 6 events are all different players - and not necessarily the stars at the top:

Kirk, IKF, Lukes, Clement, Varsho in that order certainly isn't likely who you'd have listed in spring training as being the Jay for the biggest championship impacting play for the Jays season. Nor would you necessarily have had a top 10 with no Vlad hit (although some of that is Vlad was cold at the end of the season, after being very good - even if not MVP level - in the earlier parts of the season). But Springer was probably the hitting MVP on the team in terms of performance, and he wasn't in the list either. But again the team was just really deep and solid all the way through and everyone did seem to step up and come through.

Bo and Barger going back to back to walk off the Diamondbacks is a big one for me.

Bo's Texas home run before the Jays went on a run.

The Schneider, Lukes, and Bichette PAs that lasted over 10 pitches were memorable.

The broadcast is always pumping his tires, but Popkins seems to have been a soothsayer.

Bo's Texas home run before the Jays went on a run.

Me too.

But the moment I remember best about the whole season came against the Yankees. Bichette had just doubled in two runs to give the Jays a 2-1 lead against Carlos Rodon. Davis Schneider came up and started fouling off pitch after pitch after pitch. The AB went on for 14 pitches before Rodon finally got the out, and sent Schneider back to the dugout. Where he was cornered by George Springer who got completely up in Schneider's face to tell him what a totally fabulous job he'd just done and don't let anybody tell you otherwise. That might be my favourite moment of the whole season.

Bo's at bat against Tarek Skubal is what I remember best. Skubal was pouring in fastballs at 97, 98 MPh then wicked breaking balls and Bo kept fouling them all off through 14 pitches. You could almost see Skubal thinking," Man, I can't get anything by this dude!"

Some tidbits : Ernie Clement was first in Defensive Runs Saved in MLB with 23.

The TV viewing audience for Sunday's final was the largest in Jay's history at 2.3 milion. The Jays averaged over 1 million viewers for each game over the entire season. The team finished 9th overall in total attendance with a total of 2.85 million and a game average of 35,184 fans. On the road, though, only Detroit and Houston drew fewer fans. ( This was probably made worse by the fact that fewer Jay's fans travelled to parks like Seattle and Detroit because of not wanting to travel to the US>)

Dan Shulman is one of ten nominations for the Ford Frick Award given to a broadcaster for major contributions to baseball.

My own personal prediction : Bo Bichette will not be on the ALDS team roster.

I’m not that happy about resting two starts on Gaussman. Fact is he’s never been good in the playoffs. He sucked against Seattle and let them back in that game, he wasn’t good against Minnesota. He wasn’t good for the Giants either. He’s very much a hit or miss pitcher. If his two pitch thing isn’t working he’s very mediocre. I can easily see him losing both his starts because I don’t trust him to have a big game when it matters. Hes never done it before so why bet him actually doing well this time? I know it’s a crazy idea but I say start Yavesage of Beiber game one.

Gausman has pitched a whole 25 innings in the playoffs. Can't discount his whole body of work just on 25IP.

Kershaw has a 4.5ERA in the playoffs, Scherzer 3.8. Those are completely mediocre numbers are you not going to start two of the greatest pitchers of their generation in their prime because of that? David Price also sucked, and even Pedro Martinez famously couldn't figure out the yankees in the playoffs at the height of his powers. Ace pitchers having mediocre results in the playoffs is nothing new, but also what are your alternatives? For every Madison Bumgarner there are many other high end pitchers that struggle in the playoffs, whether that's small sample luck or because competition is stronger. You have to trust and stick with what got you there in the first place. If he doesn't have it, have a quick hook and go with a bullpen game.

True it’s small sample size but I just don’t trust him. It’s not like teams don’t know the mo on how to approach him. All the competition has seen him before multiple times and know that laying off the splitter is key. I guess my biggest issue with him is there is no plan b. If the two pitch isn’t working he’s very mediocre has nothing to fall back to. Beiber for example has more of a repertoire. Yavesage has a similar thing to Gausman but the teams haven’t seen him which is key.

Now I know that despite my worry Gausman is starting game one. He’s earned it but I don’t feel good about it. Just don’t trust him.

There are a few potential advantages to starting Yesavage in game 1 or 2 of the ALDS. First, he would get to pitch at home, where he has shown he can do well (his Sept 27 start was great). Second, he would avoid the intense stress of pitching a postseason game in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park (not that he couldn’t handle that stress, but it’s an awful lot to ask of a 22-year-old in his fourth MLB start. The other starting pitchers on the team are more experienced in high-pressure road and/or postseason games. Third, starting him in game 1 or 2 would avoid subjecting him to the additional stress of being the SP in a deciding game of the series.

I wanted to take a final look at the question of whether this jays team overachieved this year or note.

And always, i'll use the fangraphs combined zips/steamer projections as the baseline of reasonable median expectation, and then compare them to actual results.


Starting with the Position Players:



WAY OVER EXPECTED

Starters (1)

DH Springer 581pa, 109wrc+, 2.1war, 2.4war650 ---------> 586pa, 166wrc+, 5.2war, 5.8war650

Bench (1)

C Heineman 141pa, 77wrc+, 0.6war, 2.8war650 ----------> 174pa, 120wrc+, 2.1war, 7.9war650

Callups (1)

OF Loperfido 63pa, 92wrc+, 0.1war, 1.0war650 -----------> 104pa, 148wrc+, 0.7war, 4.4war650


Just a ridiculous year from Springer obviously - though to be fair he was projected to be decent this year, not disastrous.

Huge year for Heineman in a limited bench role. And Loperfido with a great cameo as a callup. Both look like pure flukes but performance is performance.


OVER EXPECTED

Starters (0)

None

Bench (2)

UT Schneider 203pa, 108wrc+, 0.7war, 2.2war650 -------> 227pa, 127wrc+, 1.3war, 3.7war650
OF Straw 70pa, 74wrc+, 0.1war, 0.9war650 ---------------> 299pa, 91wrc+, 1.8war, 3.9war650

Callups (0)

none


Both these bench guys performed solidly above expected, and both did it fairly consistently too. No starters or callups in this category though.



AT EXPECTED

Starters (3)

SS Bichette 630pa, 120wrc+, 4.0war, 4.1war650 -----------> 628pa, 134wrc+, 3.8war, 3.9war650
C Alejandro 429pa, 118wrc+, 4.1war, 6.2war650 -----------> 506pa, 116wrc+, 4.7war, 6.0war650
CF Varsho 560pa, 104wrc+, 2.7war, 3.1war650 ------------> 271pa, 123wrc+, 2.2war, 5.3war650

Bench (1)

IF Clement 364pa, 100wrc+, 1.6war, 2.9war650 -----------> 588pa, 98wrc+, 3.2war, 3.5war650

Callups (2)

OF Lukes 84pa, 108wrc+, 0.4war, 3.1war650 --------------> 438pa, 103wrc+, 1.8war, 2.7war650
UT Barger 49pa, 107wrc+, 0.2war, 2.7war650 -------------> 502pa, 107wrc+, 2.2war, 2.9war650


Bichette better offensively but worse defensively and it balances out. Kirk pretty much bang on expectations. Varsho's performance was way better than perfected but he missed such a huge amount of time that the value balanced out.

Clement, Lukes, and Barger all played more than expected due other guys flopping, but nothing surprising in their actual performances.



BELOW EXPECTED

Starters (1)

1B Guerrero 679pa, 152wrc+, 4.8war, 4.6war659 ----------> 680pa, 137wrc+, 3.9war, 3.7war650

Bench (0)

None

Callups (3)

IF Martinez 154pa, 95wrc+, 0.4war, 1.7war650 -----------> 0pa
C Bethancourt 77pa, 85wrc+, 0.3war, 2.5war650 ---------> 0pa
OF Clase 21pa, 88wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war650 ----------------> 112pa, 69wrc+, -0.3war, -1.7war650


It's too bad because Vladdy was well on his way to hitting or even beating those expectations before that groin injury, and then the bad september dragged him down below expectations.

Clase sucked up here but at least he earned a callup unlike the other two.


WAY BELOW EXPECTED

Starters (4)

RF Santander 665pa, 126wrc+, 2.9war, 2.8war650 --------> 221pa, 61wrc+, -0.9war, -2.7war650
2B Gimenez 637pa, 107wrc+, 4.2war, 4.3war650 ---------> 369pa, 70wrc+, 1.0war, 1.8war650
LF Roden 446pa, 112wrc+, 1.6war, 2.3war650 -------------> 153pa, 56wrc+, -0.1war, -0.4war650
3B Wagner 364pa, 118wrc+, 1.7war, 3.0war650 -----------> 149pa, 78wrc+, -0.3war, -1.3war650

Bench (0)

None

Callups (0)

IF Jimenez 28pa, 103wrc+, 0.1war, 2.3war650 ------------> 32pa, -19wrc+, -0.3war, -6.1war650


Pretty crazy that 4 of 9 projected starters all faceplanted so spectacularly. They were so bad that i'm not even sure "WAY BELOW EXPECTED" is a low enough level for them. They could easily be classified a further level below expectations.

And too bad about Leo's wasted year too.


No Expectations (3)

C Sanchez 0pa -----------------------------------------------------> 23pa, 41wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war650
OF Robertson 0pa -------------------------------------------------> 75pa, -13wrc+, -0.8war, -6.9war650
IF Stefanic 0pa ------------------------------------------------------> 25pa, 40wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war650

whatever.





So in the starting lineup, we get:

1 Way Over (Springer)
0 Over
3 At (Bichette, Kirk, Varsho)
1 Below (Vladdy)
4 Way Below (Santander, Gimenez, Roden, Wagner)

Bench

1 Way Over (Heineman)
2 Over (Schneider, Straw)
1 At (Clement)
0 Below
0 Way Below

Callups

1 Way Over (Loperfido)
0 Over
2 At (Barger, Lukes)
3 Below (Orelvis, Bethancourt, Clase)
1 Way Below (Jimenez)


For me, the projected starting lineup skewed so far below expectations that it's impossible to say anything other than the position players were below expectations as a group.

But it's a testament to the front office that they built a team with very good depth, with a number of players who projected as starter-level but couldn't get into the opening starting lineup or even on the major league roster. A few of those guys being able to hit to expectations in a bigger role made sure that the season wasn't loss despite 4/9 starters imploding. Also helps that the FO pulled chute quickly on the underachievers and exploited the depth they knew was there.

My best memory was the rookie bookend game in Tampa - the place where positive Jays memories are very few and very far between. We had lost 5 of 6 to them including a sweep the last time we visited.

Yesavage made his debut and was everything we'd hoped for. Gave up an early run, then shut them down the rest of the way, K'ing 9. The high leverage guys all did their jobs, but in typical Tampa game fashion, when we pitch well, we can't score, although we did scratch out 1 run to send it into extras.

Still tied in the bottom of the 10th. Braydon Fisher pitched a clean inning and off the the 11th, where Springer singled to bring in the runner from 2nd. Fisher back out and after an infield single to put the fastest runner in the league at third and the heart of their order up, Fisher K'd the next 3 for the improbable win.

And the Starting Pitching....



WAY OVER EXPECTED

Rotation (0)

None

Callups (1)

LH Lauer 0.0ip -----------------------------------------------------------> 104.2ip, 3.18era, 3.81fip, 1.4war, 1.6war32

Lauer was off the projections radar after his stint overseas, but had a remarkable year and it was badly needed after Francis crashed out so badly.


OVER EXPECTED

Rotation (0)

none

Callups (0)

none

Can't really squeeze anyone into here tbh.


AT EXPECTED

Rotation (3)

RH Gausman 191.0ip, 3.80era, 3.80fip, 2.9war, 2.9war32 -------> 193.0ip, 3.59era, 3.70fip, 4.1war, 4.1war32
RH Bassitt 178.0ip, 4.04era, 4.20fip, 2.0war, 2.1war32 --------> 170.1ip, 3.96era, 4.18fip, 2.4war, 2.4war32
RH Berrios 194.0ip, 4.15era, 4.33fip, 1.9war, 1.9war32 --------> 166.0ip, 4.17era, 4.85fip, 1.3war, 1.4war32

Callups (1)

LH Lucas 24.0ip, 4.38era, 4.47fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ----------> 24.1ip, 6.66era, 5.91fip, 0.0war, 0.0war32

Gausman Bassitt and Berrios were all close enough to expectations for me. Some might argue Gausman was slightly over or Berrios was slightly under but for me it's in the ballpark.

And Lucas' numbers look terrible but I can't rightly say he did worse than expected when being thrust into an unexpected starting role.


BELOW EXPECTED

Rotation (1)

RH Scherzer 122.0ip, 3.71era, 3.83fip, 1.9war, 2.3war32 -----> 85.0ip, 5.19era, 4.79fip, 0.4war, 0.8war32

Callups (3)

RH Manoah 17.0ip, 4.14era, 4.25fip, 0.1war, 0.3war32 ------> 0.0ip
RH Bloss 37.0ip, 4.84era, 4.95fip, 0.1war, 0.2war32 ---------> 0.0ip
RH Macko 8.0ip, 4.62era, 4.79fip, 0.0war, 0.0war32 ---------> 0.0ip

Scherzer wasn't a disaster but he was bad enough overall that I can't quite keep him in the As Expected tier.

Nothing much was expected from the trio of callups here but getting a bit of depth here at least would have been nice.


WAY BELOW EXPECTED

Rotation (1)

RH Francis 157.0ip, 4.20era, 4.42fip, 1.4war, 1.2war32 -----> 64.0ip, 6.05era, 6.12fip, -0.8war, -1.1war32

Callups (1)

RH Turnbull 45.0ip, 4.30era, 4.21fip, 0.5war, 2.0war32 ------> 6.1ip, 7.11era, 5.82fip, -0.1war, -1.1war32


Francis imploded and it would have been killer without Lauer's emergence. Turnbull was the guy who was most expected to be able to do what Lauer ended up doing but couldn't do anything.



Rating the rotation is really tough imo. The 3 main guys Gausman Bassitt Berrios pretty much hit expectation. The two riskier guys underachieved - Scherzer by a little, Francis by a lot. Most of the depth guys were terrible.....except for the one magical performance from Lauer which obviously outweighs them all.

For me this still broadly comes in as the rotation being at expectations - but I have some time for an argument that Lauer's emergence outweighs the underperformance of Scherzer/Francis/Depth guys.

And the bullpen.....



WAY OVER EXPECTED

Bullpen (0)

none

Callups (2)

RH Nance 42.0ip, 4.26era, 4.27fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 -----> 31.7ip, 1.99era, 3.83fip, 0.8war, 1.7war65
RH Fisher 18.0ip, 4.41era, 4.61fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ------> 50.0ip, 2.70era, 3.29fip, 0.8war, 1.0war65

None of the projected starting bullpen overachieved hugely, but Fisher and Nance were nondescript depth guys who both performed like high-end relievers over a good sample.



OVER EXPECTED

Bullpen (1)

LH Little 56.0ip, 3.79era, 4.10fip, 0.1war, 0.1war65 ---------> 68.1ip, 3.03era, 3.26fip, 1.3war, 1.1war65

Callups (1)

LH Fluharty 22.0ip, 4.07era, 4.27fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ----> 52.2ip, 4.44era, 3.20fip, 0.2war, 0.3war65
RH Schultz 0.0ip ------------------------------------------> 24.2ip, 4.38era, 3.91fip, 0.1war, 0.5war65

I was tempted to push Little up to the higher tier, but really he was projected to be a good reliever this year, and ended up being a very good (but not great) reliever this year. Solid overachieve but not crazy.

Fluharty isn't quite in the Fisher/Nance category due to some midyear struggles the other two didn't have, but a big year from him anyways, regardless of the unimpressive ERA. Schultz provided solid depth too.



AT EXPECTED

Bullpen (1)

RH Rodriguez 107.0ip, 4.06era, 4.13fip, 0.7war, 0.7war65 ---> 73.0ip, 3.08era, 4.17fip, 0.1war, 0.1war65

Callups (1)

LH Bruihl 0.0ip -------------------------------------------------> 13.2ip, 5.27era, 3.52fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65
RH Estrada 0.0ip -----------------------------------------------> 7.1ip, 8.59era, 5.07fip, -0.1war, -3.3war65

Yariel had a solid year in the pen - he was projected to be more of a swingman with plenty of starts this year, but instead stayed solely in relief, with slightly better numbers than he was projected to have as part time starter.

Bruihl and Estrada weren't good but it's hard to say that wasn't expected.



BELOW EXPECTED

Bullpen (3)

RH Hoffman 65.0ip, 2.97era, 3.11fip, 1.4war, 1.4war65 -----------> 68.0ip, 4.37era, 3.91fip, -0.4war, -0.4war65
RH Garcia 61.0ip, 3.58era, 3.67fip, 0.6war, 0.6war65 -------------> 21.0ip, 3.86era, 4.83fip, 0.1war, 0.3war65
RH Sandlin 60.0ip, 3.97era, 4.25fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ------------> 16.1ip, 2.20era, 4.27fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65

Callups (2)

RH Tate 26.0ip, 4.09era, 4.21fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ----------------> 6.1ip, 4.26era, 6.69fip, -0.1war, -1.1war65
RH Barnes 50.0ip, 4.41era, 4.52fip, -0.1war, -0.1war65 ----------> 8.0ip, 9.00era, 6.52fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65
RH Burr 44.0ip, 3.54era, 3.66fip, 0.1war, 0.2war65 -----------------> 2.0ip, 0.00era, 1.88fip, 0.1war, 3.3war65

I was tempted to drop Hoffman down a tier but his early dominance saves him here. But it's definitely below expectations and really damn close to way below.

Garcia and Sandlin didn't suck in their brief time healthy but their seasons were pretty much comlpletely wiped out.

The 3 callups were projected to be potentially useful arms and had the track record to expect something, but Tate and Barnes were terrible and Burr got injured right after a very nice start.



WAY BELOW EXPECTED

Bullpen (3)

RH Green 63.0ip, 3.90era, 4.06fip, 0.2war, 0.2war65 --------------> 43.2ip, 5.56era, 6.38fip, -0.9war, -1.2war65
LH Lovelady 59.0ip, 3.92era, 4.08fip, 0.1war, 0.1war65 -----------> 1.2ip, 21.60era, 7.22fip, -0.1war, -3.3war65
RH Swanson 46.0ip, 3.98era, 4.15fip, 0.0war, 0.0war65 ----------> 5.1ip, 15.19era, 6.16fip, -0.2war, -2.2war65

Callups (1)

none


these three weren't expected to be anything other than fungible middle relievers, but they couldn't even come close to that, and were entirely unplayable.





Again, looking at the total performance, it's hard to argue they overachieved. Only 2 of the starting relievers pitched at or above expectations (Little and Yariel). 6 of the 8 projected starting bullpen underachieved imo, with 5 of them being completely unplayable due to performance, injury, or both. That's just a huge chunk of the bullpen failing.

The excellent performances from Fisher, Nance, and Fluharty do claw some of that failure back I think, but just not enough.

Greenfrog, I'm not sure how you'd avoid Yesavage being the starter in a deciding game if you start him in Game 1. The Game 1 starter is going to start Game 5. He might avoid a potential deciding game in 3 or 4, but he'd be out there in a winner-take-all Game 5.

You make some good points and I could see Yesavage starting Game 2 and then going with Bieber in Game 3, but I don't see them displacing Gausman at the top for a rookie, whereas flipping him and Bieber leaves them each still with one start in the ALDS and, if they made the ALCS, they'd have the option of starting Bieber or Yesavage in Game 1 with normal or extra rest.

Just looking at leaders thinking about MVP - Judge has 10.1 fWAR and is 4.4 fWAR above 2nd place among OF'ers. Raleigh is at 9.1 and is 4.4 fWAR above 2nd place among C's (2nd is Kirk at 4.7). Kind of surprised it was the same size of spread from 1st to 2nd for OF and C. This is AL only. Cut down to RF only and Judge is 4.9 ahead of 2nd place Springer (5.2)

After seeing Jays in 2nd at 2 positions, lets check the rest. Using Primary Position - Varsho is 7th in CF (just 71 games) at 2.2 (5.7 leads - Julio Rodríguez of Seattle), Lukes is 14th in LF (1.8, #1 is Bellinger at 4.9), Bo is 5th at SS (3.8 vs #1 Witt with 8.0), Clement is 5th at 3B (3.2 vs Jose Ramirez' 6.3), Clement is 2nd at 2B (4.4 leads Jazz Chisholm), Vlad is 2nd at 1B (3.9 vs Kurtz' 4.6 for the A's), DH is a repeat of RF (both guys qualified at both positions I guess).

Good to see the Jays are solid at a lot of offensive positions. Pitching, not as much. Gausman is 5th in the AL with 4.1, Bassitt 23rd at 2.4, Berrios 47th, Lauer 71st, Yesavage 86th, Scherzer 88th, Bieber 96th, Francis 191 (dead last among those with at least 1 IP as a starter). Among all pitchers #474 is Francis, and #475 is Green - ugh, two guys we thought would be decent this year instead had the worst fWAR in the majors. Swanson was 426th, Hoffman 454th (ugh). Top reliever was Little at #31 (1.3 fWAR), Fisher is #50 (1.0), Nance #74, Lauer #103, Rodriguez #182, Fluharty #204, ... we are at 0.2 fWAR here and thus get tons of guys who barely pitched mixed with guys who were just replacement level.

IMO the big challenge is the pen and if Bieber and Yesavage can be the potential aces they were/could be. If our big 3 (Gausman-Bieber-Yesavage) can do the job then things should work out. The offense is strong enough, the pen is shaky but can do the job. Unlike the Yankees our defense is solid, and the pen isn't in non-stop blowup mode (feels like it sometimes, but it really isn't).

Katie - the game 2 starter would be on a full 4 days rest for a game 5 start.

Good point, Katie. I was thinking game 2 for Yesavage but left open the possibility of game 1 since he will have had sufficient rest to start either game.

If the front office is in a conservative frame of mind, they could go with veteran SPs throughout the series and then use Lauer and Yesavage out of the bullpen. But I think Yesavage gives you a better shot of winning as a SP (especially at home) and I would try to do what they did on Sept 27, maybe get 5-6 innings from him and then lock it down with the bullpen.

My overall approach would be, don’t get cute, lead with your best arms and move aggressively to win the series from the outset. Don’t dabble with lesser veteran arms in an attempt to placate everyone.

Hoffman's ERA/FIP/etc. all say 'bad year' but did it actually cost much? Jays were 54-17 in games he appeared in. Of those 17 losses 4 had him get a blown save (3 of those he got the loss in), 4 others were him getting the loss but no blown save. 8 of those games he didn't give up a run in, 1 he gave up an unearned run (8th inning came in, got 1 out, error was his own on June 22nd - if play made no runs score, and Jays win game instead of losing it as 2 inherited runners also scored). In 3 of those games he allowed an inherited runner or two to score. Bottom line, of 17 losses he was involved in he was mainly responsible for the loss in 10 of them (allowed runs to score either his own or inherited ones). Is that bad? He did get 33 saves and was important in a few games where he came in with bigger than 3 run leads. Not ideal, but not a nightmare either despite the 2.0 HR/9 rate he had and other issues. His April, June, and September were all very solid to excellent. May/August were terrible, July was meh.

Would I rather have Henke or Ward in their prime? Duh. But never forget, Eckersley, a HOF closer, blew a big save vs the Jays in the year he won the Cy & MVP in the ALCS (game 4) - Alomar's legendary home run. Mariano Rivera, easily the best closer ever, blew a game 7 in the WS in 2001 (you don't get a bigger blown save than that). Crap happens, and the biggest save in Jays history was probably Mike Timlin 1992 game 6 of the WS with the tying run on third base and 2 out in his 2nd ML season where he had a 100 ERA+ in relief. Go figure.

Playoffs are fun, as the improbable happens a LOT - from Kirk Gibson's 1988 game 1 home run, to Rivera's blown save. Buddy Biancalana becoming a household name in '85, to Steve Pearce being traded away by the Jays and becoming a WS hero (MVP) for the Red Sox in '18. Jays first WS MVP was Pat Borders, he of the lifetime 3.6 bWAR and 77 OPS+ (Springer, Vlad, Gausman, and Clement all had more bWAR this year than Borders had in his entire career). So hold onto your hats - who knows, maybe IKF will become an October hero. Yes, stranger things have happened.

I have no great thoughts on rotation order.  What I do know is that I would have a plan to use Lauer and Fluharty in the middle innings for 2-4 innings and 1-2 innings respectively.  Fluharty's last 3 outings were over an inning, so it may be that is exactly what the club intends to do.  

it struck me that we should care more about how the yanks/sox hit righties than how they hit lefties, given our starting rotation.

vRHP

RF Judge 199wrc+
DH Stanton 157
CF Grisham 144
1B Rice 141
2B Chisholm 134
LF Bellinger 105
3B McMahon 98
C Wells 91
SS Volpe 74

UT Goldschmidt 74
OF Dominguez 116
IF Caballero 81
C Escarra 76

UT Vivas 46
OF Slater 45
IF Rosario 72



LF Anthony* 153
CF Duran 133
3B Bregman 120
RF Abreu 115
1B Lowe 111
SS Story 102
DH Yoshida 98
C Narvaez 95
2B Gonzalez 95

UT Refsnyder 67
OF Rafaela 96
IF Campbell 82
C Wong 38

UT Sogard 57
OF Eaton 119
IF Hamilton 67

The TV ratings was interesting to see - these are no longer public so it is up to the Jays to release the information or for media to pay for it. 906,800 viewers per game is amazing. Peak of 2.36 million on Sunday. For comparison Sunday Night Baseball, shown all over the USA, gets 2.04 mil on average. A chart I found on Reddit shows how insanely high the Jays ratings are vs all other clubs - Other teams are happy to crack 250k on average. To the Jays that would be a disaster outside of spring training. Heck, I'd bet if they televise the scrums this week it'd get more than 250k viewers. From 2016 this article shows revenue for the US based teams from TV. From sad sacks like Tampa/Rockies/Marlins who get roughly $20 mil per to the Dodgers $204 mil per the range is extremely large. Rogers officially only was sending the Jays around $36 mil a year in 2016 when the article is from, but that was just paperwork. Given the ratings it is clear the Jays are worth well over $100 mil per year, and closer to $200+ mil given these figures are a decade old.

So given that it is no wonder the Jays were fighting for Ohtani and Soto, able to sign Vlad for $500 mil, and this winter should be in the thick of it for whoever they want again (pitching, pitching, pitching and Bo or a suitable replacement).

Spent some time pouring through L/R Home/Road NYY/BOS splits for the starting pitchers this year. Notes:

. All of Gausman/Bieber/Yesavage/Lauer have great numbers against lefties, better than what they have against righties. This is very favourable for a matchup with the Yankees. Just keep walking Judge.
. Yesavage's severe reverse splits match with what he did in the minors (180 points of OPS)
. Bassitt has severe splits in favour of pitching at the dome. He also did this in 2023, while in 2024 he was somewhat better on the road. I would give serious consideration to pitching him in game 2. Bieber in game 3 would still be lined up for game 1 or 2 of the ALCS.
. The Yankees did not see Bieber or Lauer this year, the Sox did not see Bieber.

thanks jonny, so many numbers to look at i hadn't even looked at our pitcher's splits.

that Yesavage one worried me a bit - but I see that despite the much higher batting stats allowed to RHH, a lot of that is from a .421babip, and he's still posting a solid 2.94fip and 3.55xfip against RHH. still makes me hesitate to make him a go-to starter tho.

I don't envy our coaching staff - this is a very difficult roster to create any type of real hierarchy of usage. They must be looking at a million different numbers.

After mulling it over tho i don't think i would get too fancy with the SP - Bieber/Gausman in games 1/2 gives us a choice of either of them for game 5 if necessary - and we can just pick the one who looked better in their first start.

I still think I start Yesavage in game 3 or 4 tho.


And with Bo out for the series, I think it's probably best if we make the lineup as deep and versatile and resistent to matchups as possible. We can do a full L/R alternating lineup while playing all our best hitters at the same time. The only change needed against a LHP would be maybe sitting Barger.


1. DH Springer
2. RF Lukes
3. 1B Guerrero
4. C Kirk
5. CF Varsho
6. 2B/LF Schneider
7. 3B Barger
8. 2B/SS Clement
9. SS Gimenez / LF Santander / LF Straw / LF Loperfido / 2B Falefa


And while the decision feels like it should be between Gimenez and Santander to me (and I don't know which I prefer), I think there's also a chance that the best choice might actually be to start Straw.

Straw doesn't really have any splits, this year or career, and he's put up around a 90wrc+ against both LHP and RHP this year, which plays with his elite defense. That's worlds better than Gimenez' 70wrc+.

This year vRHP

1. Springer 178
2. Schneider 155
(Loperfido 155)
(Bichette 131)
3. Guerrero 129
4. Varsho 129
5. Kirk 116
6. Barger 115
7. Lukes 104
(Heineman 95)
8. France 93
9. Straw 89
10. Falefa 86
11. Gimenez 80
12. Clement 75
13. Santander 70


vLHP

(Heineman 183)
1. Guerrero 163
2. Clement 146
(Bichette 143)
3. Springer 132
(Loperfido 123)
4. Kirk 113
5. Schneider 106
6. Lukes 99
7. Varsho 98
8. Straw 93
9. France 90
10. Barger 69
11. Falefa 46
12. Gimenez 39
13. Santander 32


With Bo out, then Straw actually slips into the top-9 offensive performers against both LHP and RHP (not including the small sample high babip guys Loperfido and Heineman), and he has an elite glove.



Player: Total wRC+ (vRHP / vLHP)

1. DH Springer 166 (178 / 132)
2. 2B Schneider 127 (155 / 106)
3. 1B Guerrero 137 (129 / 163)
4. C Alejandro 116 (116 / 113)
5. CF Varsho 123 (129 / 98)
6. SS Clement 98 (75 / 146)
7. 3B Barger 107 (115 / 69)
8. RF Straw 91 (89 / 93)
9. LF Lukes 103 (104 / 99)

we sacrifice a bit of IF defense with Schneider at 2B but we put our best possible defensive OF out there. Ideally you could pinch hit for Clement and Barger in the right platoon split, but then again it's not like there's clearly better options on the bench even in thsoe splits.

and while you might want to pinch hit for Straw in any matchup just for a better hitter, there's no screaming need to do it for platoon reasons.

I guess as of now it looks Saturday game 1 we'd be facing either RH Warren or RH Gil if it's the Yanks, and I guess LH Harrison or maybe LH Tolle if it's Boston.

Then in game 2 it's certainly either LH Crochet or LH Fried, both on regular 4 days rest. And both of them would be lined up to pitch game 5 if necessary, on 4 days rest.

Game 3 would then be either LH Rodon or RH Bello, both on 5 days rest.

Game 4 would be RH Schlittler for the Yanks, and I dunno for Boston.

I expect essentially a bullpen day from the Red Sox if they’re playing Saturday. And for game 4 it would be today’s starter, Early. He’s their Yesavage, only pitched 5 games in the majors after a great season in AA/AAA.

ah yes that sounds right. They could even decide to use Early in game 3 on 4 days rest, if last game spooked them on Bello.


So....

NYY: 1.RH Warren/Gil, 2.LH Fried, 3.LH Rodon, 4.RH Schlittler, 5.LH Fried
BOS: 1.LH Harrison/Tolle, 2.LH Crochet, 3.RH Bello/LH Early, 4.LH Early/RH Bello, 5.LH Crochet

winning game 1 is huge obviously. and just as obviously a game 5 would be a really tough matchup.



and lots of lefties to face either way.

Regular Season Against BOS & NY


APR07 @BOS: TOR 6 - BOS 2 - win

TOR RH Berrios 7.0ip, 2k, 7bsr, 1r / RH Garcia 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 1r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.1B Casas 5.SS Story 6.RF Abreu 7.C Narvaez 8.2B Hamilton 9.CF Rafaela

BOS RH Fitts 6.0ip, 4k, 10bsr, 3r / RH Weissert 1.0ip, 1k, 4bsr, 2r / RH Stock 2.0ip, 0k, 3bsr, 1r
TOR 1.SS Bo, 2.1B Vladdy, 3.DH Santander, 4.2B Gimenez, 5.RF Springer, 6.C Kirk, 7.3B Wagner, 8.CF Lukes, 9.LF Roden


APR08 @BOS: TOR 6 - BOS 1 - win

TOR LH Lucas 5.1ip, 8k, 4bsr, 0r / Green 0.2ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 0.2ip, 0k, 2bsr, 2r / Little 0.1ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Fluharty 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Barnes 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.RF Refsnyder 5.SS Story 6.2B Campbell 7.1B Gonzalez 8.C Narvaez 9.CF Rafaela

BOS LH Crochet 5.2ip, 5k, 0bsr, 4r / RH Kelly 1.2ip, 2k, 5bsr, 2r / RH Winkowski 1.2ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.DH Santander 4.RF Springer 5.3B Clement 6.2B Schneider 7.CF Straw 8.C Heineman 9.LF Roden


APR09 @BOS: TOR 2 - BOS 1 (11 innings) - win

TOR RH Gausman 8.0ip, 10k, 4bsr, 1r / RH Hoffman 2.0ip, 3k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Sandling 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.1B Casas 5.SS Story 6.RF Abreu 7.CF Campbell 8.2B Hamilton 9.C Narvaez

BOS RH Houck 6.2ip, 2k, 7bsr, 1r / LH Wilson 0.1ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Slaten 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Chapman 1.0ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Weissert 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Winckowski 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 1r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.DH Vladdy 3.LF Santander 4.2B Gimenez 5.1B Wagner 6. C Kirk 7.RF Roden 8.3B Clement 9.CF Lukes


APR10 @BOS: TOR 3 - BOS 4 (10 innings) - loss

TOR RH Bassitt 5.2ip, 5k, 6bsr, 1r / Green 1.1ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Little 0.1ip, 1k, 1bsr, 1r / RH Garcia 1.2ip, 2k, 2bsr, 0r / Sandlin 0.2ip, 0k, 2bsr, 2r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.1B Casas 5.SS Story 6.2B Campbell 7.RF Abreu 8.CF Rafaela 9.C Narvaez

BOS RH Buehler 6.1ip, 7k, 5bsr, 1r / LH Wilson 0.2ip, 0k, 3bsr, 1r / RH Whitlock 1.0ip, 2k, 2bsr, 0r / LH Chapman 1.0ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Bernardino 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 1r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.2B Gimenez 3.DH Santander 4.RF Springer 5.1B Wagner 6.3B Clement 7.LF Roden 8.C Heineman 9.CF Lukes


APR29 @TOR: TOR 2 - BOS 10 - loss

TOR RH Francis 3.0ip, 5k, 9bsr, 7r / RH Tate 1.1ip, 1k, 3bsr, 0r / LH Fluharty 2.0ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Lawrence 2.2ip, 1k, 6bsr, 3r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.SS Story 5.RF Abreu 6.2B Campbell 7.1B Casas 8.CF Rafaela 9.C Narvaez

BOS LH Crochet 7.0ip, 6k, 7bsr, 2r / RH Guerrero 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Bernardino 1.0ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.RF Santander 4.DH Springer 5.C Kirk 6.CF Varsho 7.3B Clement 8.2B Gimenez 9.LF Straw


APR30 @TOR: TOR 7 - BOS 6 - win

TOR RH Yariel 1.0ip, 1k, 4bsr, 2r / LH Lauer 4.0ip, 4k, 5bsr, 2r / RH Green 1.0ip, 0k, 2bsr, 2r / RH Garcia 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Little 1.0ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 2.0ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.SS Story 5.RF Abreu 6.2B Campbell 7.1B Casas 8.CF Rafaela 9.C Narvaez

BOS RH Giolito 6.0ip, 7k, 7bsr, 3r / RH Whitlock 2.0ip, 0k, 4bsr, 3r / LH Chapman 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Slaten 0.1ip, 0k, 3bsr, 1r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.DH Santander 4.LF Springer 5.CF Varsho 6.C Kirk 7.RF Barger 8.2B Gimenez 9.3B Clement


MAY01 @TOR: TOR 4 - BOS 2 - win

TOR RH Berrios 6.2ip, 8k, 8bsr, 2r / LH Fluharty 1.1ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Garcia 1.0ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.CF Duran 2.DH Devers 3.3B Bregman 4.RF Abreu 5.SS Story 6.1B Casas 7.LF Refsnyder 8.2B Hamilton 9.C Narvaez

BOS RH Houck 7.0ip, 6k, 4bsr, 1r / RH Slaten 1.0ip, 0k, 4bsr, 3r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.DH Santander 4.CF Varsho 5.C Kirk 6.3B Barger 7.LF Roden 8.2B Clement 9.RF Lukes


JUN27 @BOS: TOR 9 - BOS 0 - win

TOR RH Berrios 7.0ip, 8k, 5bsr, 0r / RH Sandlin 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Schultz 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.1B TOR 3.DH Anthony 4.SS Story 5.RF Abreu 6.CF Rafaela 7.2B Hamilton 8.C Wong 9.3B Sogard

BOS RH Bello 6.0ip, 1k, 11bsr, 3r / RH Guerrero 0.1ip, 0k, 3bsr, 2r / LH Bernardino 1.0ip, 0k, 6bsr, 4r / RH Alcala 0.2ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.RF Barger 3.1B Vladdy 4.C Kirk 5.DH Springer 6.CF Lukes 7.3B Clement 8.2B Gimenez 9.LF Clase


JUN28 @BOS: TOR 1 - BOS 15 - loss

TOR RH Bassitt 2.0ip, 3k, 11bsr, 9r / RH Fisher 2.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Schultz 1.1ip, 1k, 6bsr, 3r / LH Fluharty 1.2ip, 2k, 3bsr, 2r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.DH Anthony 3.3B Toro 4.C Narvaez 5.RF Abreu 6.SS Story 7.1B Gonzalez 8.2B Sogard 9.CF Rafaela

BOS RH Giolito 7.0ip, 5k, 7bsr, 1r / RH Murphy 2.0ip, 2k, 2bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.3B Barger 3.DH Guerrero 4.C Kirk 5.LF Springer 6.RF Lukes 7.1B Clement 8.2B Gimenez 9.CF Straw


JUN29 @BOS: TOR 5 - BOS 3 - win

TOR LH Lauer 4.1ip, 4k, 7bsr, 3r / RH Yariel 1.2ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Little 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Sandlin 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.1B Gonzalez 2.RF Anthony 3.DH Refsnyder 4.C Narvaez 5.SS Story 6.LF Duran 7.CF Rafaela 8.3B Eaton 9.2B Sogard

BOS RH Buehler 4.0ip, 4k, 7bsr, 4r / RH Kelly 1.0ip, 1k, 3bsr, 1r / LH Bernardino 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Whitlock 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Weissert 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Chapman 1.0ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.RF Barger 3.1B Guerrero 4.DH Springer 5.CF Lukes 6.3B Clement 7.2B Gimenez 8.LF Clase 9.C Heineman


SEP23 @TOR: TOR 1 - BOS 4 - loss

TOR RH Gausman 5.2ip, 7k, 10bsr, 4r / RH Varland 1.1ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Fisher 0.1ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / LH Fluharty 1.1ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Nance 0.1ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.SS Story 3.3B Bregman 4.DH Yoshida 5.2B Gonzalez 6.CF Rafaela 7.1B Lowe 8.RF Abreu 9.C Narvaez

BOS RH Giolito 4.2ip, 3k, 7bsr, 1r / RH Wilson 1.1ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Whitlock 1.0ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Slaten 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Chapman 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.DH Springer 2.CF Varsho 3.1B Guerrero 4.3B Barger 5.C Kirk 6.RF Lukes 7.LF Schneider 8.SS Gimenez 9.2B Clement


SEP24 @TOR: TOR 1 - BOS 7 - loss

TOR RH Scherzer 5.0ip, 5k, 10bsr, 4r / LH Little 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Berrios 2.0ip, 3k, 4bsr, 3r / RH Nance 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.SS Story 3.3B Bregman 4.DH Yoshida 5.2B Gonzalez 6.CF Rafaela 7.1B Lowe 8.RF Abreu 9.C Narvaez

BOS LH Crochet 8.0ip, 6k, 3bsr, 0r / LH Tolle 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 1r
TOR 1.LF Springer 2.SS Clement 3.1B Guerrero 4.C Kirk 5.DH Santander 6.2B Schneider 7.CF Varsho 8.RF Straw 9.3B Falefa


SEP25 @TOR: TOR 6 - BOS 1 - win

TOR RH Varland 2.0ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Lauer 3.1ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 0.2ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Fisher 0.2ip, 0k, 3bsr, 1r / RH Dominguez 0.2ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Little 0.2ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r
BOS 1.LF Duran 2.SS Story 3.3B Bregman 4.DH Yoshida 5.2B Gonzalez 6.CF Rafaela 7.1B Lowe 8.RF Refsnyder 9.C Wong

BOS RH Bello 5.0ip, 3k, 6bsr, 3r / RH Wilson 0.1ip, 0k, 2bsr, 2r / RH Kelly 0.2ip, 0k, 1bsr, 1r / RH Murphy 2.0ip, 2k, 2bsr 0r
TOR 1.DH Springer 2.RF Lukes 3.1B Vladdy 4.3B Barger 5.LF Santander 6.CF Varsho 7.2B Clement 8.SS Gimenez 9.C Heineman


Games Started by:

Crochet: 3gms, TOR 1w - BOS 2w
Giolito: 3gms, TOR 1w - BOS 2w
Houck: 2gms, TOR 2w - BOS 0w
Buehler: 2gms, TOR 1w - BOS 1w
Bello: 2gms, TOR 2w - BOS 0w
Fitts: 1gms, TOR 1w - BOS 0w
Early: 0gms

Berrios: 3gms, TOR 3w - BOS 0w
Lauer*: 3gms, TOR 3w - BOS 0w - twice the starters were actually Yariel and Varland as openers for Lauer
Gausman: 2gms, TOR 1w - BOS 1w
Bassitt: 2gms, TOR 0w - BOS 2w
Lucas: 1gms, TOR 1w - BOS 0w
Scherzer: 1gms, TOR 0w - BOS 1w
Francis: 1gms, TOR 0w - BOS 1w

Lauer actually didn't pitch well over in these games, but Berrios had 3 very good starts.

We handled Bello easily both times. We even got some in against Crochet in a couple of his starts.



Boston's lineup looks pretty straightfoward against any of our SP:

1.LF Duran l
2.SS Story r
3.3B Bregman r
4.DH Yoshida l
5.2B Gonzalez r
6.CF Rafaela r
7.1B Lowe l
8.RF Abreu l
9.C Narvaez r

with Refsnyder, Eaton, Campbell ready to pinch hit for Yoshida Lowe Abreu if we bring out a lefty for them.

NYY


APR25 @NYY: TOR 4 - NYY 2 - win

TOR RH Berrios 5.1ip, 4k, 7bsr, 0r / LH Little 1.1ip, 1k, 3bsr, 1r / RH Garcia 0.2ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Fluharty 0.2ip, 0k, 2bsr, 1r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.RF Judge 3.DH Rice 4.1B Goldschmidt 5.LF Bellinger 6.2B Chisholm 7.SS Volpe 8.C Wells 9.3B Cabrera

NYY RH Carrasco 5.0ip, 2k, 5bsr, 0r / LH Hill 1.1ip, 0k, 2bsr, 1r / RH Hamilton 0.2ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Cruz 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Williams 0.0ip, 0k, 2bsr, 3r / RH Leiter 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.DH Santander 4.CF Springer 5.2B Gimenez 6.C Kirk 7.RF Barger 8.3B Clement 9.LF Lukes


APR26 @NYY: TOR 2 - NYY 11 - loss

TOR RH Gausman 2.2ip, 2k, 8bsr, 6r / RH Schultz 2.1ip, 3k, 6bb, 3r / RH Walker 1.2ip, 3k, 4bsr, 1r / RH Tate 1.1ip, 2k, 2bsr, 1r
NYY 1.DH Rice 2.RF Judge 3.CF Bellinger 4.1B Goldschmidt 5.2B Chisholm 6.SS Volpe 7.C Wells 8.LF Dominguez 9.3B Cabrera

NYY LH Fried 6.0ip, 3k, 7bsr, 1r / RH Santos 2.0ip, 1k, 3bsr, 0r / LH Matzek 1.0ip, 1k, 3bsr, 1r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.DH Santander 4.RF Springer 5.C Kirk 6.2B Gimenez 7.3B Clement 8.LF Clase 9.CF Straw


APR27 @NYY: TOR 1 - NYY 5 - loss

TOR RH Bassitt 5.2ip, 5k, 7bsr, 4r / LH Little 0.0ip, 0k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 1.1ip, 1k, 0sr, 0r / RH Green 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 1r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.1B Rice 3.DH Judge 4.RF Bellinger 5.2B Chisholm 6.SS Volpe 7.LF Dominguez 8.C Escarra 9.3B Cabrera

NYY RH Schmidt 5.0ip, 6k, 5bsr, 1r / LH Hill 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Leiter 1.0ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Cruz 1.0ipm, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Weaver 1.0ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Bo 2.1B Vladdy 3.RF Santander 4.DH Springer 5.2B Gimenez 6.3B Wagner 7.C Heineman 8.CF Lukes 9.LF Roden


JUN30 @TOR: TOR 5 - NYY 4 - win

TOR RH Scherzer 5.0ip, 7k, 3bsr, 2r / LH Little 1.0ip, 1k, 3bsr, 1r / RH Fisher 1.0ip, 3k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Fluharty 0.1ip, 0k, 2bsr, 1r / RH Green 0.2ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.LF Bellinger 3.RF Judge 4.3B Chisholm 5.DH Stanton 6.1B Rice 7.SS Volpe 8.C Escarra 9.2B Lemahieu

NYY LH Rodon 5.0ip, 7k, 3bsr, 2r / RH Leiter 0.1ip, 1k, 3bsr, 3r / RH Loasiga 1.2ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / LH Hill 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.SS Clement 2.RF Springer 3.1B Guerrero 4.C Kirk 5.3B Barger 6.2B Schneider 7.CF Straw 8.LF Clase 9.DH Wagner


JUL01 @TOR: TOR 12 - NYY 5 - win

TOR RH Gausman 5.0ip, 3k, 9bsr, 2r / RH Sandlin 1.0ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r / LH Bruihl 0.1ip, 0k, 2bsr, 2r / RH Fisher 0.2ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Green 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 1.0ip, 0k, 2bsr, 1r
NYY 1.1B Goldschmidt 2.CF Bellinger 3.RF Judge 4.3B Chisholm 5.DH Stanton 6.LF Dominguez 7.SS Volpe 8.C Escarra 9.2B Lamahieu

NYY LH Fried 6.0ip, 2k, 5bsr, 4r / RH Leiter 0.1ip, 0k, 2bsr, 2r / RH Weaver 0.1ip, 0k, 2bsr, 3r / RH Hartlieb 1.0ip, 3k, 5bsr, 3r / RH Brubaker 0.1ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.3B Clement 2.RF Springer 3.1B Vladdy 4.DH Kirk 5.LF Schneider 6.CF Straw 7.2B Gimenez 8.C Heineman 9.SS Jimenez


JUL02 @TOR: TOR 11 - NYY 9 - win

TOR RH Berrios 4.1ip, 3k, 9bsr, 6r / LH Little 1.1ip, 1k, 4bsr, 1r / RH Yariel 1.1ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Garcia 1.0ip, 1k, 4bsr, 2r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.C Rice 2.RF Judge 3.CF Bellinger 4.DH Stanton 5.3B Chisholm 6.1B Goldschmidt 7.LF Dominguez 8.SS Volpe 9.2B Lemahieu

NYY RH Warren 4.0ip, 4k, 14bsr, 8r / RH Hamilton 1.2ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / LH Hill 1.1ip, 2k, 1bsr, 1r / RH Williams 1.0ip, 1k, 3bsr 2r
TOR 1.2B Gimenez 2.DH Springer 3.1B Guerrero 4.C Kirk 5.RF Barger 6.SS Clement 7.3B Wagner 8.LF Schneider 9.CF Straw


JUL03 @TOR: TOR 8 - NYY 5 - win

TOR RH Bassitt 5.2ip, 9k, 11bsr, 3r / RH Fisher 0.2ip, 1k, 3bsr, 2r / RH Green 1.1ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / LH Bruihl 0.1ip, 1k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.1B Rice 3.DH Judge 4.RF Bellinger 5.3B Chisholm 6.LF Dominguez 7.SS Volpe 8.C Wells 9.2B Peraza

NYY RH Schmidt 3.0ip, 1k, 5bsr, 3r / RH Beeter 1.2ip, 0k, 5bsr, 3r / RH Loaisiga 1.1ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Leiter 1.0ip, 1k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Weaver 1.0ip, 2k, 2bsr, 2r
TOR 1.CF Lukes 2.DH Springer 3.1B Guerrero 4.RF Barger 5.C Kirk 6.SS Clement 7.3B Wagner 8.LF Schneider 9.2B Jimenez


JUL21 @TOR: TOR 4 - NYY 1 - win

TOR RH Gausman 7.0ip, 8k, 6bsr, 1er / LH Little 0.1ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 0.2ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.RF Judge 3.2B Chisholm 4.DH Stanton 5.LF Dominguez 6.1B Goldschmidt 7.C Wells 8.SS Volpe 9.3B Peraza

NYY LH Rodon 5.0ip, 4k, 11bsr, 4r / RH Effross 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Brubaker 2.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.3B Clement 2.DH Springer 3.1B Guerrero 4.SS Bo 5.C Kirk 6.LF Schneider 7.CF Straw 8.2B Jimenez 9.RF Loperfido


JUL22 @TOR: TOR 4 - NYY 5 - loss

TOR RH Scherzer 5.0ip, 4k, 6bsr, 4r / LH Fluharty 2.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / LH Bruihl 1.0ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 1r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.LF Bellinger 3.RF Judge 4.2B Chisholm 5.DH Stanton 6.1B Rice 7.C Wells 8.3B Vivas 9.SS Volpe

NYY RH Schlittler 5.0ip, 3k, 10bsr, 2r / LH Hill 0.2ip, 0k, 1bsr, 2r / RH Loaisiga 0.1ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Weaver 1.2ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Hamilton 0.1ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Williams 1.0ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r
TOR 1.CF Lukes 2.DH Springer 3.1B Guerrero 4.SS Bo 5.RF Barger 6.C Kirk 7.LF Loperfido 8.2B Clement 9.3B Wagner


JUL23 @TOR: TOR 8 - NYY 4 - win

TOR RH Bassitt 7.1ip, 8k, 3bsr, 4r / LH Bruihl 0.2ip, 0k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 1.0ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.RF Bellinger 3.DH Judge 4.1B Rice 5.2B Chisholm 6.LF Dominguez 7.SS Volpe 8.C Escarra 9.3B Peraza

NYY LH Fried 5.1ip, 3k, 9bsr, 6r / RH Loaisiga 0.2ip, 0k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Effross 1.0ip, 0k, 3bsr, 2r / RH Brubaker 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr 0r
TOR 1.LF Schneider 2.DH Springer 3.1B Vladdy 4.SS Bo 5.C Kirk 6.RF Barger 7.3B Clement 8.CF Straw 9.2B Jimenez


SEP05 @NYY: TOR 7 - NYY 1 - win

TOR RH Gausman 8.0ip, 5k, 5bsr, 1r / RH Fisher 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.C Rice 3.RF Judge 4.LF Bellinger 5.DH Stanton 6.2B Chisholm 7.1B Goldschmidt 8.3B McMahon 9.SS Caballero

NYY RH Schlittler 1.2ip, 2k, 6bsr 4r / LH Yarbrough 5.1ip, 3k, 3bsr, 1r / RH Leiter 1.0ip, 2k, 2bsr, 1r / RH Doval 1.0ip, 0k, 3bsr, 1r
TOR 1.DH Springer 2.RF Barger 3.1B Guerrero 4.SS Bo 5.CF Varsho 6.C Kirk 7.LF Lukes 8.3B Clement 9.2B Gimenez


SEP06 @NYY: TOR 1 - NYY 3 - loss

TOR RH Bassitt 5.0ip, 3r, 6bsr, 2r / RH Varland 0.1ip, 0k, 3bsr, 1r / LH Little 1.1ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Yariel 1.1ip, 2k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.1B Rice 3.DH Judge 4.RF Bellinger 5.2B Chisholm 6.LF Dominguez 7.SS Volpe 8.C Wells 9.3B McMahon

NYY RH Gil 6.0ip, 1k, 7bsr, 1r / RH Weaver 0.2ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r / RH Cruz 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Bednar 1.1ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r
TOR 1.DH Springer 2.RF Barger 3.1B Vladdy 4.SS Bo 5.CF Varsho 6.LF Lukes 7.3B Falefa 8.2B Gimenez 9.C Heineman


SEP07 @NYY: TOR 3 - NYY 4 - loss

TOR RH Scherzer 4.1ip, 8k, 7bsr, 4r / LH Borucki 1.2ip, 2k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Fisher 1.0ip, 3k, 0bsr, 0r / RH Hoffman 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r
NYY 1.CF Grisham 2.RF Judge 3.LF Bellinger 4.1B Rice 5.DH Stanton 6.2B Chisholm 7.C Wells 8.SS Volpe 9.3B McMahon

NYY LH Fried 7.0ip, 4k, 7bsr, 3r / RH Williams 1.0ip, 1k, 2bsr, 0r / RH Bednar 1.0ip, 0k, 1bsr, 0r
TOR 1.RF Springer 2.2B Schneider 3.DH Guerrero 4.C Kirk 5.SS Clement 6.1B France 7.3B Falefa 8.LF Lukes 9.CF Straw




Starters:

LH Fried 4gms, TOR 2w - NYY 2w
LH Rodon 2gms, TOR 2w - NYY 0w
RH Schlittler 2gms, TOR 1w - NYY 1w
RH Schmidt 2gms, TOR 1w - NYY 1w
RH Warren 1gms, TOR 1w - NYY 0w
RH Carrasco 1gms, TOR 1w - NYY 0w
RH Gil 1gms, TOR 0w - NYY 1w


RH Gausman 4gms, TOR 3w - NYY 1w
RH Bassitt 4gms, TOR 2w - NYY 2w
RH Scherzer 3gms, TOR 1w - NYY 2w
RH Berrios 2gms, TOR 2w - NYY 0w
RH Bieber 0gms


I kinda forgot how much joy we got this year against their likely SP this series, even Fried.




The Yanks' likely order is a bit tougher to figure but it's likely going to be this against us and all our righties:

1. CF Grisham l
2. RF Judge r
3. LF Bellinger l
4. 1B Rice l
5. DH Stanton r
6. 2B Chisholm l
7. C Wells l
8. SS Volpe r
9. 3B McMahon l

They could possibly move Rice to C to try and get Dominguez' bat into the lineup vs the RHP, but i doubt they do that tbh.

And then when we bring in the LHP they have Goldschmidt to pinch hit for a Grisham or Rice, they have Caballero and Rosario to pinch hit for McMahon and maybe Chishholm.

Player: Overall wRC+ (vRHP / vLHP)


1. CF Grisham 129 (144 / 88)
2. RF Judge 204 (199 / 225)
3. LF Bellinger 125 (105 / 180)
4. 1B Rice 133 (141 / 104)
5. DH Stanton 158 (157 / 158)
6. 2B Chisholm 126 (134 / 106)
7. C Wells 94 (91 / 100)
8. SS Volpe 83 (74 / 104)
9. 3B McMahon 86 (98 / 44)

B. 1B Goldschmidt 103 (74 / 169)
B. OF Dominguez 103 (116 / 63)
B. IF Caballero 97 (81 / 129)
B. IF Rosario 106 (72 / 125)
B. C Escarra 79 (76 / 96)



1.LF Duran 111 (133 / 61)
2.SS Story 101 (102 / 98)
3.3B Bregman 125 (120 / 139)
4.DH Yoshida 88 (98 / 36)
5.2B Gonzalez 123 (95 / 162)
6.CF Rafaela 91 (96 / 81)
7.1B Lowe 91 (111 / 41)
8.RF Abreu 110 (115 / 85)
9.C Narvaez 97 (95 / 102)

B. OF Refsnyder 128 (67 / 159)
B. UT Eaton 102 (119 / 89)
B. IF Sogard 83 (57 / 135)
B. IF Hamilton 60 (67 / -4)
B. C Wong 39 (38 / 41)




Here's how each team's active roster did overall offensively and (vRHP / vLHP):


NYY: 120 (118 / 126)
TOR: 111 (112 / 107)
BOS: 101 (103 / 96)