One of the best Jays observers around is Spencer Fordin, whose latest column on MLB.com looks at the 2003 rotation. I love this wonderful line in the first paragraph:

...less than two weeks to go before pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin.

Fordin's a bit more cautious than I am about Doc, and presents both sides of Cory Lidle: the slow starter, and the man who had a Hall of Fame month in August. I agree about Tanyon Sturtze:

Here's another telling statistic: of Toronto's starters who pitched more than 40 innings in 2002, only two finished with a better ERA than Sturtze. With better run support and defense than he got in Tampa Bay, Sturtze could shave a run off his ERA and win 10 games in 2003. That's the best-case scenario -- at worst, he'll perform like Esteban Loaiza, who went 9-10 with a 5.71 ERA.

Hope he's also right about Henderson; the big fella's my choice as #4 and part of my fantasy strategy. Seems to think a good game, and his already fine stuff should keep improving for a while. That's a great picture of him. I'm not conceding anything to Walker or Miller; I like Pete even better in the 'pen, and Doug Linton could pitch himself all the way to #5 in Florida.

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ESPN's Jayson Stark, with some time on his hands, wonders if baseball can do something (the Bonds rule?) about boring intentional walks. To me, the solution is simple -- put someone more intimidating than Benito Santiago or Jose Cruz Jr. into the on-deck circle.

Stark's Top 20 proposed rule changes are more fun. Some are incredibly dumb, but he gets credit for including one of my pet peeves:

When a 40-foot pop-up lands in the infield between four different men... don't you just hate it when that's scored a (chuckle) "hit?" When a routine fly ball in the alley drops between two outfielders who forgot to call it, doesn't it curdle your blood when the hitter gets a (gasp) "double?" Absurd! If a ball should be caught, it should be caught. And if it isn't, it's an error -- even if it's a "team" error.

Doug "best Canadian GM in Milwaukee" Melvin has some good ideas, but the Designated Fielder isn't one of them. Maybe he's looking ahead to Prince Fielder. And I'd vote to ban Thunder-Stix, air horns, and anything else that contributes to deafness, like the volume of the music at SkyDome.

From Sportsnet.ca, an informative column from a guy who is sometimes too interested in rumours, about Eric Hinske changing agents and preferring not to hit second. A few interesting quotes from the GM, too. Thanks to Steve Z.

It is a remarkable thing, really, this run of the Braves. Not for their dominance, heavens no, though that is obviously impressive. What is remarkable is how they can be so dominant for six months out the year, for 12 years running (including the strike-shortened 1994 season), but then come up short, year-after-year, save for one, in 1995. At some point you must dismiss the failures as simply more than being bad luck. Conventional wisdom holds that anything can happen in a short series, and with the advent of the Wild Card, it’s that much more likely “inferior” teams like the Phillies and Padres and Giants and Marlins will knock off a “superior” Braves club. On the other hand, if it’s possible for any team to emerge a World Series champ, how do you explain the Yankees run? If we follow that logic, why didn’t the Orioles or Indians or Mariners or A’s knock them off? Forgetting about payroll issues for a moment, if it’s simply bad luck the Braves have only one title in their run, is it simply good luck the Yankees have four in the same time frame? Where do you put the blame for the Braves’ failures? On Bobby Cox? John Schuerholz? The players? A hybrid of the three? This has been asked a million times, but because it’s never been answered satisfactorily, let’s ask it again: How can a team that has had, over the years, Chipper Jones, Terry Pendleton, Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, Brian Jordan, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, et al, managed to win as many World Series titles in the last 12 years as the Marlins, Twins, and Angels?

Meanwhile, in another NL East dugout...

Bobby Cox is even more hopeful than I am about the Jays.

"Under the circumstances, I think our front office has had one of the best years ever. I think we can win even more games than we did last year."

Estrada better be good; that shrewd front office gave up a lot for him, to that other team in their division; the one that's trying to win this year. I traded for Russ Ortiz, and Byrd might surprise, but on the field, the torch passed with Millwood.

Pat Burrell: premature commitment or cost containment? Either way, I agree with Jon Heyman of Newsday -- Collusion? C'mon.

Still, agents whisper. One of about five I trust told me yesterday, "Something's a little fishy." Which is something short of a smoking gun. And then this: "If it's being done, it's being done in a smart way." Which means they ain't got squat.

The union's claim is so weak, I'm considering dueling conspiracy theories as to why it would consider filing a grievance. Could it be it likes the challenge of an unwinnable case? Or might union officials merely be bored?

Well said. I'll stop whining; the Yankees could be dismissed as mavericks, but the Phillies have locked up another of their leaders and put the case to rest this winter, trying to buy a division title. Good for them. Every team's reacting to the new CBA, but not all the same way. It's over -- Bud wins, agents lose, nothing's fishy. The players will be fine. I'm sure Brad Fullmer would rather be an Angel for a million than an Oriole for four; I know I would. The Jays got cheaper and better -- how cool is that? Play ball.

Researcher extraordinaire Dick Thompson posted two very interesting articles on the SABR-L mailing list yesterday, and I thought I'd mention them as they are of considerable interest.

Felipe Lopez has played the equivalent of about 1 full season of major league baseball. The youngster was dealt in the off-season to the Cincinnati Reds for two above average prospects - which makes 3 shortstops that J.P. has sent packing. This season will tell us a lot about the kind of career we might expect Felipe to have. The main concern this year has to be playing time: Barry Larkin is still in place and will likely get his 300-400 PA, which means that Felipe will compete with Brandon Larson for PT (unless the latter is traded).

Lopez has been compared to Miguel Tejada by some, and to Alex Gonzalez by others (including the author of this article). The end result will likely see him somewhere in between with the bat in his hands. Felipe's future value will depend a lot on whether he can handle shortstop over the long-term. His fate on defence might be similar to one-time organisational mate Tony Batista - shuffled around the infield, eventually to land at third base.

Instead of looking at on-base, slugging percentage and their raw stats, I will focus on assessing the development of their batting skills.

It's Groundhog Day, and you know what that means ... it's time for 2003 pre-season nominations for the Annual Batter's Box Joaquin Andujar Award.

Okay, so it's not realistically possible to call anything "first annual," and since we've never done this before, it's pretty likely that you don't "know what that means." Besides, if we learned anything from Andujar, it was his credo that the best one-word description for baseball was "you never know."

So sit back, relax, enjoy -- and participate in -- this inaugural edition of an award nomination process that will someday be known more familiarly as the "YouNeverKnows."

It begins with irrelevant song lyrics and a meandering prologue, but eventually, Peter Gammons gets around to a good look at the junior circuit in his latest column on ESPN. His most interesting observations include this summary of the A's philosophy:

Beane believes that the season comes in three parts: the first two months, when you figure out what you have; the next two months, when you take care of what you need; and the final two months, when you get into the passing lane and floor it.

The 2003 Blue Jays' batting order has been a lively topic here before, and Bob Elliott of the Sun goes straight to the source in his latest column, quoting Carlos Tosca at length.

"It will hit me all at once one day during a spring game once I see what everyone can do," says the Little General, who also wants one-on-one chats about the lineup with all his regulars.

The skipper's declared preference to alternate L-R bats makes it sound like Stew-Hinske-Wells-Delgado-Phelps-Cat-Woodward to me, and although it's not my first choice, it's not bad. Puts the pressure on Wells more than I would, but it's subject to change -- last year at this time, we were told Vernon was the fourth OF and primary DH, which never happened. Carlos has talked to the coaches, but if J.P. gets a vote...

I know, it was only last Tuesday that I posted a "prospecting" article featuring Aaron Gleeman's list, but it is that time of year, and the gang at Baseball Prospectus have not only weighed in with their Top 40+, but their approach is fascinating.

Steve Z linked to Part One of the BP roundtable in one of his comments on our previous thread, but here it is again. Rany Jazayerli listed his picks, then the other staff writers commented publicly. It's an excellent discussion, not only of the prospects, but of the different weights people give to the variables in compiling such a list. Yesterday, the Prospectus panel continued their friendly argument in Part Two, and Rany adjusted his ratings according to the opinions of his peers. Here's how it looks now:

This would have been a better fit in our football threads last weekend, but Jim Caple has come up with XXXVII reasons why the World Series is better than the Super Bowl. I'm sure we can think of XII's of others.

Craig mentioned this already, but Jayson Stark had some fun conjuring up an all-Pet team (nothing to do with Penthouse; it's in the sidebar near the bottom of the column) to play in the latest incarnation of what should have remained "the Murph" in San Diego -- Petco Park, a.k.a. "the litter box." He got lots of great reader feedback, too.

At the risk of starting another debate with Robert, here are Leonard Koppett's thoughts on connecting the result of the All-Star game to home-field advantage in the World Series. Like me, Koppett believes it's a "hare-brained, not-thought-through, irrelevant, self-defeating and just plain rotten idea" and concludes baseball should leave well enough alone.

Here's two more ads I've spotted in subway stations for the 2003 Jays, reincorporating the Baseball North theme:

- A baseball glove whose inside has been padded with wool

- Vernon Wells's uniform, with his batting gloves attached to his sweater as if they were children's mittens

I thought they were kind of cool, so I figured they were worth wasting a weblog entry on. :-)