He recently released his Blue Jay Top 20 Prospect Ranking over at his terrific website and agreed to step into Da Box to discuss the Jays prospects further. The general consensus is that Dustin McGowan is the cream of the crop among Blue Jay prospects, but Sickels rated him 3rd behind David Purcey and Ricky Romero. \"McGowan's stuff is first-class but I still worry about his control. I know that Romero and Purcey ranking ahead of McGowan is controversial, but I think they are both safer picks at this point, while McGowan has the higher upside. You can make the case either way of course, I recognize that.\"
One player that Sickels is high on is the Jays first round pick in 2005, Ricky Romero, ranking him the Jays top prospect despite not pitching above A ball. While Jim Callis believes that Romero will be number three starter Sickels is more optimistic. \"I fell in love with him as a college pitcher. I like his combination of movement and precision. This is something of a projection I suppose, since he hasn’t faced Double-A yet and my general policy is to be reasonably cautious about players until they face that level. So in that sense I am going against my general grain here.\" Sickels considers Romero to be very polished and feels that he can reach Toronto at some point in 2007 assuming he pitches well in Double-A.
The Jays took two OFs that they had similar ratings on prior to the draft in Brian Pettway and Ryan Patterson. Once they started in Auburn they headed in different directions. Patterson had a terrific year winning the team's MVP while Pettway struggled considerably. What should Bauxites think of this? \"I try not to make a big deal out of short-season performance, even advanced college players have problems making the adjustment at times, so it is way too soon to give up on Pettway. His plate discipline was pretty good in college, but went backward on him as a pro. Scouts report that he was too power-conscious, trying too hard to hit home runs. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Patterson hit well at Auburn and Pettway did not. So we have to rank Patterson ahead of Pettway at this point, but in the sense of being happy with Patterson and 'wait and see' with Pettway.\"
Sticking with the 2005 draft Sickels felt that there were a couple 'sleeper prospects' in the draft class. \"I like Robert Ray (7th round, RHP, Texas A&M) a lot and I think he has a good chance to surprise people. He has good stuff but didn’t mix his pitches as well as he should have in college. If he can mix up his arsenal a bit more and continue to throw strikes, he should do well.\" Sickels also noted that Jacob Butler (8th round, OF, Nevada) has a \"good power bat\" but needs a position.
Two players that appear to be fairly similar are Shaun Marcum and Josh Banks. However, Sickels rated Banks as a B and Marcum as a C+. The differences Sickels sees between the two are down the road. \"I agree they are similar. They both have exceptional command, but Banks is younger, physically larger, and has a better chance to pick up a little more additional velocity.\"
One player that the Box minor league crew think highly of is Davis Romero who was ranked 11th in the end of the year prospect rankings. This is in contrast to scouts who generally don't think too highly of Davis Romero. Sickels wants to take a 'wait and see' approach. \"Statistically, Romero is just awesome. His velocity isn’t terrible, either, and he gets terrific movement on his pitches. But scouts doubt him because he is small and doesn’t burn radar. At this point, he deserves a full shot in Double-A. Will he do well? Frankly I don’t know, it really is something of a 50/50 bet right now. If he does make it to the majors, it will probably be as a short relief type to avoid overexposure.\"
The Jays picked up Sergio Santos in the Glaus trade. Santos was a former 1st round pick, although he really struggled this year in AAA. Sickels is not optimistic about Santos at this point. \"He has problems with plate discipline, and his swing is quite erratic, sometimes short and compact but sometimes too long when he tries too much to hit for power. His glove is OK but he has to hit to play regularly, and at this point I don’t think he’ll be much better than he already is.\"
A player that didn't make the cut in Sickels' book is Ryan Roberts who posted a solid line in NH in 2005. \"I had him rated at Grade C but cut him from the book due to space reasons. Every year there are 1 or 2 guys from each organization that end up getting dropped from the book. Anyhow, Roberts is one of those Grade C guys. He has intriguing power and drew some walks last year, but he also struck out more than once a game in Double-A at age 24.\"
Often times certain prospects get an undue amount of hype while other players fly under the radar. When looking at players who might be over and under rated Sickels goes back to Romero and McGowan. \"Well, I think Romero is underrated. At least he better be underrated or I will end up looking stupid for putting him ahead of McGowan. I don’t really think that McGowan is overrated on other lists, as I said, his stuff is first-class but I just have this nagging doubt about his command. It could be an intuitive thing or maybe just a brain fart on my part. It is also possible that I’m a bit worried about McGowan because of what happened with Brandon League last year. In League’s case, I ignored my nagging intuitive doubts about his command and gave him a lot of positive praise. In his case my intuition was right and I was wrong to ignore it. So perhaps I am overcompensating this year with McGowan. We will see how that pans out.\"
Sickels mentioned earlier that he thinks Robert Ray is a sleeper who could emerge. Another player that he thinks could make a big jump forward this year is Chip Cannon. \"If he retains command of the strike zone, he could really blossom with even more impressive numbers than he posted last year.\"
As mentioned earlier Sickels' 2006 prospect book is available. I get the book each year and I've had my copy of the most recent book for a couple weeks now and I recommend it. It's a great resource to have now on minor leaguers, and I find it's also fun to go back and read evaluations from a few years back. Fantasy leaguers can also find it useful.
The book is available through Sickels' site: Canadian orders and US orders
Many thanks to John Sickels for taking the time to share his opinions with Batter's Box.
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The one thing I found interesting was that Sickels said the reason McGowan ranked third was because of his lack of command, yet he ranked Purcey second.
I'm guessing based on the grades he's given the top 20 they aren't 18-20 in his rankings, they are closer to 25.
I have two questions for John if he's reading. Most people here give Lind a slight edge on Thigpen as the best position player in the organization. What were your reasons for preferring Thigpen? Also, last year's 5th round pick Eric Fowler was highly thought of, and performed well in the NYPL after a rough start. What do you think of him?
Thanks, again, John, for stepping into the Box, and to Pistol for a fine interview.
Given that I think his initial feel of 18-20 is where he'd end up if he did formal rankings.
I agree. For hitters, their stats (age and league included) and their prospect status are very tightly linked. For pitchers, not so. Kerry Wood in his last year in the minors had a 4.68 ERA but was still considered (rightly so) a complete stud prospect because he threw regularly in the high 90's with a killer curve. Similarly, every year, there are a couple of guys who win 17 games and have a dominant ERA in the minors but who have stuff that would never get major leaguers out. A very interesting read.
On the whole, though, the system seems short on upper-echelon talent. I like our top 8, but a lot of formerly touted players are falling fast (Rosario, Quiroz, Griffin, League, Perkins).
IIRC GQ was one of the best catching prospects 2 years ago. I wonder if anybody still considers him an elite prospect.
It appears the Jays lack high ceiling prospects which is a problem. Producing solid players is nice but I would rather have one uber prospect than 3 solid ones.
Before I looked at Sickels list, I had forgotten about JFG. It will be interesting to see if he sees any action with the Jays this season.
One player that Sickels is high on is the Jays first round pick in 2005, Ricky Romero, ranking him the Jays #2 prospect despite not pitching above A ball.Doesn't he rank Ricky the #1 prospect?
Good catch. In his book Sickels has a top 50 pitcher list and he had Purcey ahead of Romero and McGowan. I wrote up the interview prior to his list today so he must have changed to Romero from the time he wrote the book until now.
Consider it a toss-up.
http://www.baseball.com.au/?Page=18389
And it's almost happened... a Jays prospect born in the 90s. When they are born after the WS seasons, then I'll know how long ago it's been. Ah, the good ol' days.
Aaron Gleeman in an article on RotoWorld a month or so back mentioned Quiroz as an outside ROTY hopeful.
These aren't exactly the Devil Rays and Angels ahead of them so far:
GPA
Twins 2.79
Giants 2.72
Braves 2.71
Orioles 2.67
Cubs 2.60
Astros 2.59
Blue Jays 2.52
Maybe I'm wrong and there are 10-12 systems he'll rate worse but I'll believe it when I see all 30 teams.
In addition, there have been reports that McGowan has been able to get consistent bite on his off-speed stuff post-surgery.
Combining the arm surgery with his less than overpowering performance measures, it is not unreasonable to make McGowan a B prospect. John would freely admit, I am quite sure, that rating Ricky Romero as a B+ prospect was largely a subjective opinion.
We all have subjective opinions. I think Shaun Marcum will have a much better career than McGowan, but I might be the only one on the planet who has that opinion. Objectively, though, the chances of any one of the Jay pitching prospects being very good is less than 50%. The chances for a number of them are probably in the 20-40% range. In those circumstances, just about any ordering is reasonable; there is probably more value in the author's reasoning than in the conclusion.
PS Yes you are the only one that thinks Marcum will have a better career than McGowan.
Marcum's mother is in that boat as well. I'm in the non-believer camp on McGowan myself. I think Janssen is the best pitcher of the bunch so opinions do range everywhere.
Mike, is this a typo? Did you mean \"has\" or \"has not\"?
It should have read: "there have been reports that McGowan has not been able to get consistent bite on his off-speed stuff".
I think recuperation from this rather serious operation takes place in two phases.
1.)After a rehab of 12-18 months the hurler returns to the active roster. Intitially many players are pleasantly surprised to find their fastball velocity is all the way back ( and in a few cases enhanced), but unfortunately they tend to struggle with command/control of the breaking ball.
2.)Phase two involves trying to regain the ability to throw breaking pitches on a consistent basis. Many hurlers report twinges of elbow pain when throwing off speed pitches ( not surprising given these type of throws put more strain on the elbow) In fact there were reports the Blue Jays refused to allow McGowan to use all his repetoire of pitches until late in the season. Breaking pitches also require feel and touch, and given a 24 month hiatus from using these pitch types,understandly regaining form takes time.
Time however, is a precious commodity in pro baseball. The tenure of pitching coaches/managers can be short and sweet. Pressure to extract value from your charges is immense. I think what happens in many instances is that organizations lose patience with their young post TJ pitchers, particularly if they throw hard (Gagne,Koch, Ryan Dempster), and push them to the bullpen where they can primarily throw fastballs as relievers.
Hopefully the Jays are patient with McGowan (they should be as they control his contract for the next 6 years)as he strives to regain his off speed pitches. I share the view of a lot of scouts ,that this guy has significant upside as a top end rotation starter if he gets better pitch control( I think top starters are more valuable than top relievers). He has outstanding velocity and from what I see, quite good bite on his breaking pitches ( a product of his very good arm strength ).
In short ,his stuff is top shelf, although concerns about his focus and ability to repeat his pitches are valid. If it was my team I'd give this guy plenty of latitude.
It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the constituent factors considered in arriving at an overall grade for each prospect. ie physical tools, performance, perceived upside, perceived risk etc.
Is there anybody else who wishes we still had Bush in place of McGowan?
He was very good early in the year and progressively got worse, culminating in a game where he was taken apart, taken deep 3 or 4 times, and left early because his pitch count got up so high. It was shortly after that that it was announced he would have TJ surgery.
As a reliever he looked great. That doesn't necessarily mean anything but he looked good enough that I would be much more comfortable with him being in the majors in short relief over say, Brandon League who I was much more iffy about last year. I think McGowan's command and mechanics and maturity are significantly ahead of League.
But I think he has too much potential to leave him in short relief right away. It's worth rolling the dice a little to see if he can establish himself as an above average starter. He has all the tools, it's just a matter of being able to do it for 100+ pitches per game once again. His command does have to get better and despite his good fastball, he needs his changeup and curve to work in order to start. I am cautiously optimistic.
In my book, it's McGowan clearly on top of the list, Romero clearly second, and Purcey clearly third because of his very significant command issues. In fact I'd rate Purcey even lower if it weren't for the fact that minor leaguers really seem to have a tough time hitting him. If Bobby Jenks can gain enough command to be a good major league pitcher then there's certainly still hope for a lefty like Purcey.
If I were to try to quantify it (and I might), I'd probably take all players above C+ and assign values to each letter grade and then sum the total (because C is as low as you get and there's many Cs left off of the top 20 lists). Maybe something like:
A: 12 A-: 9 B+: 6 B: 4 B-: 3 C+: 2This way an A is worth the same as two B+ or three B, or 4 B-; Two B- = One B+; Three B- = One A-. Using GPA one A and one C is worth the same as two Bs.
Team Total Angels 76 Twins 76 Giants 70 Braves 67 O's 59 Astros 58 Cubs 53 Jays 51 Mets 32
Should be hard to do worse.
I remember Duane Ward, when the Jays picked him up from Detroit (I think) the "word" was he had a million dollar arm and a two cent brain GREAT stuff but no control and couldn't and wouldn't take instruction. If I remember correctly he turned out OK. McG is MUCH less a project than Duane was.
But Ward's transmogrification is much more the exception than the rule.
B: The Mets have a bit of an excuse for their system, they did subtract a lot this offseason, but it's pretty comfortably the worst system in baseball if you ask me.
Toronto finished in 17th place, as Sickels roughly guessed. In the AL we rank ahead of Texas, KC, Detroit, White Sox, Seattle and the Yankees. Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Boston finished 10, 12 and 13, respectively.
"The transmogrification of Duane Ward" sounds like a horror movie title to me. And I do agree that McGowan is much more likely to be successful in a relief role...if he is placed in this role, hopefully the club will be gentle with his workload. A torn labrum is indeed a horror.