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What's the difference between these two teams anyway?

Everybody's got an opinion. I, however, have the Truth.

The difference between these two teams is 38 runs of offense. Over 99 games. That is all.

There's simply nothing to choose from between the two pitching staffs. Despite their much-lamented procession of injuries, the Blue Jays have allowed just 441 runs this season - that's 2 runs less than Tampa. Only Boston in the division has given up fewer. The 2009 Jays have the fifth best ERA in the league, four rookies in the rotation and all. The starters have pitched to a 4.26 ERA, fifth best in the league and the best in the division. Boston is next, with a 4.46 ERA from their starters. The Rays' starters have a 4.65 ERA.

That's right - the 2009 Blue Jays have had the best starting pitching in the AL East. Obviously, Roy Halladay has a lot to do with that. A lot. But 80 of those games were started by other guys, and 48 of them were started by rookies.

The bullpen has not been as impressive. As we all know, they've lost two of last season's key contributors (Ryan and Tallet) while two others (Carlson and League) have been wildly inconsistent. But even so, the pen has hardly been bad - they rank sixth in the AL with a 3.93 ERA. They're obviously behind the truly outstanding pens in Boston (3.15) and Tampa (3.37), but they're still better than average. What has been disturbing, however, has been the tendency of the Toronto relievers to... well, to lose the damn game. The Jays relievers have picked up just 10 wins while losing 20 games. No relief corps has lost more often, and only Kansas City's relievers have scooped up fewer wins.

But on the whole, the difference between Toronto and Tampa isn't on the pitcher's mound. And anyway, you have to figure it's easier to find a useful relief pitcher than an effective starter. So let's look at the bats.

And here we go. Tampa has outscored Toronto by 38 runs. The Blue Jays have scored 478 runs (4.83 per game), which is not bad. It's a wee bit better than the league average, in fact. It's significantly better than Baltimore, almost as good as Boston. But Tampa and New York both have a really good offense. The Rays have scored 516 runs (5.21 per game). That's third best in the league, behind the Angels (a fluke, shurely?) and the Yankees (playing half their games in Coors East - the Bombers have hit 91 HRs at home, 55 on the road.)

So let's go round the division by position and see where these extra runs are coming from.

CATCHER    GP  AB    R     H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
NY Yankees 98 356 48  98  21  0 14  58  29  72   1  2  5  4  4   9  .275   .333  .452  .786   52
Boston    97 335 49  76  27  0 14  49  48  77   0  0  0  6  3   4  .227   .324  .433  .757   50
Baltimore  97 333 33  83  17  2  8   24  38  61   0  0  0  0  3   8  .249   .332  .384  .716   42
Toronto    99 375 32  90  18  0 10   54  14  61   1  0  5  5  1   4  .240   .266  .368  .634   37
Tampa Bay  99 360 38  82  16  0  7   37  12  48   4  2  7  2  4  12  .228   .259  .331  .590   28

The Blue Jays don't get much offense from their catchers, but Tampa gets even less. Minnesota (natch!) is the only team that actually gets a lot of offense from behind the plate. Jays ahead by 9 runs created.

FIRST BASE GP AB   R  H  2B 3B HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
NY Yankees 98 386 66 109  27  1 26   74  57  67   1  0  0  2  7   8  .282   .383  .560  .942    84
Boston    97 348 63 100  22  2 18   63  55  87   5  0  0  3 10  11  .287   .397  .517  .914    73
Tampa Bay  99 361 66 81  21  2 25   65  65 130   2  1  0  2  7   2  .224   .352  .501  .853    69
Toronto    99 357 50  98  31  1 12   64  58  64   0  0  0  3  0   9  .275   .373  .468  .841    64
Baltimore  97 382 41  99  21  0 10   52  32  58   0  5  0  5  2  15  .259   .316  .393  .709    43
The Yankees are the class of the division here, and they've got the cancelled cheques to prove it. Morneau in Minnesota has a slight edge over Teixeira league-wide. I think we're in the habit of assuming that Tampa enjoys a large edge over Toronto at first base, and it's possible that we're somewhat bitter about it. After all, they scooped Carlos Pena off the scrap heap after Texas, Oakland, Detroit, Boston, and New York had all decided they could get along quite nicely without him. Hey - when you're running together more consecutive 90 loss seasons than any team in the history of the American League, you can afford to take a flyer on a guy from time to time. It's not like you have any serious hopes or anything. But Tampa's edge over Toronto isn't that impressive. Pena plays very good defense and hits a lot of home runs, but he doesn't do very much else at all. Overbay gets on base more often, and between his additional singles and doubles makes up for much of the gap in slugging. As a bonus, Kevin Millar has hit very well when he's in the lineup at first base (.306/.364/.472). Pena's biggest advantage might actually be that he strikes out so often that he practically never hits into a double play. Jays still ahead, by the way, by 4 runs created.

2ND BASE   GP AB   R   H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
Toronto    99 433 58 127  18  0  25   68  24  65   4  1  1  3  3  13  .293   .333  .508  .841    69
Boston    97 395 72 122  32  1   5   44  45  30  14  5  1  2  3  13  .309   .382  .433  .815    65
Baltimore  97 397 75 112  35  1   8   46  47  67  20  5  1  6  0   6  .282   .353  .436  .789    64
Tampa Bay  99 361 54 102  17  3  10   46  55  74  14  3  1  3  2   4  .283   .378  .429  .807    64
NY Yankees 98 400 67 123  27  1  14   54  19  33   4  4  0  2  2  13  .308   .340  .485  .825    60
Aaron Hill has been the most productive second baseman in the league this year. And  his edge over Zobrist/Iwamura turns out to be almost exactly equivalent to Pena's edge over Overbay/Millar. This position is loaded, is it not? Jays stretch their lead over to Tampa to 8 runs created.

3RD BASE   GP  AB  R  H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
Tampa Bay  99 383 63 108  29  1  22   82  48  88   2  0  0  6  5   16  .282   .364  .535  .900    72
Toronto    99 384 60 118  30  0   9   42  36  54   5  2  1  3  4    3  .307   .370  .456  .826    67
NY Yankees 98 344 51  77  18  1  16   59  55  78   7  0  2  1  6   12  .224   .340  .422  .761    50
Boston    97 387 48 103  27  2  15   56  27  62   1  2  0  1  3   17  .266   .318  .463  .781    50
Baltimore  97 369 35  95  14  0   7   39  27  40   3  4  1  2  3    8  .257   .312  .352  .664    39
Edge for Tampa, as Longoria is the most productive third baseman in the league. But Scott Rolen has certainly held his own. Longoria has a big edge in power, but undoes many of his good works by hitting into lots and lots of double plays. And is it not weird to see the Yankees in the middle of the pack. Longoria cuts Toronto's edge to 3 runs created.

SHORTSTOP  GP  AB  R  H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
Tampa Bay  99 360 62 122  30  5  10   48  30  69  22  4  2  3  2    3  .339   .390  .533  .923    78
NY Yankees 98 413 64 130  21  1  11   46  46  61  18  5  1  0  3    9  .315   .387  .450  .838    73
Toronto    99 404 71 116  30  1   8   46  61  48   8  4  5  4  2   10  .287   .380  .426  .806    67
Boston    97 339 39  78  21  0   6   39  28  77   4  4  1  4  8    6  .230   .301  .345  .646    35
Baltimore  97 326 36  81  12  1   2   23  13  47  11  3  2  2  2   11  .248   .280  .310  .590    26
Marco Scutaro has been a pleasant and delightful surprise to most of us, although I seem to remember one scout saying it's because the PEDs are washing out of the league, and the guys who could always play are... playing. But Jason Bartlett? Come on - he's a good player but .337? A guy who's hit 11 HRs in more than 1500 major league at bats coming into 2009 is slugging .516? This is Pena and Zobrist all over again. Is it possible that they're doing something with the bats down there? Bartlett has been the best hitting shortstop in the league ths year, ahead of Jeter and Scutaro. He puts Tampa ahead by 8 runs created as we head for the outfield.

LEFT FIELD GP  AB  R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
Tampa Bay  99 405 67 126  17  3  12   50  39  66  46  9  0  2  4    5  .311   .376  .457  .832    75
NY Yankees 98 401 73 110  27  2  18   61  47  67   8  0  1  1  1    8  .274   .351  .486  .837    70
Boston    97 348 60  88  22  2  20   73  65  96  11  2  0  3  5    7  .253   .375  .500  .875    70
Toronto    99 352 47  93  24  1  15   42  40  82   4  0  5  0  4    8  .264   .346  .466  .812    57
Baltimore  97 346 38  85  16  0  13   40  44  79   5  2  0  1  2    6  .246   .333  .405  .738    48
Carl Crawford is a wonderful player having a fine  season. This is the third position in a row where a Devil Fishie has been the best hitter in the league at his position. As for the home team, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista have both been pretty good for Toronto in LF - the problem is in  the 135 ABs soaked up by Snider, Inglett, Dellucci, and Adams  - that quartet hit .185 (25-135) with 3 HR and 13 RBI. Snider was the only one who did anything at all. Big edge for Tampa, and they stretch their advantage to 26 runs created.

CF GP  AB  R   H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
Baltimore  96 397 65 118  19  4  15   58  27  83   8  5  1  2  6    7  .297   .350  .479  .828    65
NY Yankees 97 345 55  98  12  6   8   43  39  57  18  6  8  4  2    5  .284   .353  .423  .776    55
Boston    96 394 52 114  16 3   6   37  25  49  44  8  3  3  4    9  .289   .336  .391  .727    54
Tampa Bay  98 407 64  99  27  2  10   40  36  74  15  8  6  3  6    2  .243   .325  .393  .718    52
Toronto    98 404 57 103  24  2  10   41  33  61  14  2  0  5  0   13  .255   .308  .399  .706    48
I thought this would be worse - as you may or may not have noticed, Vernon Wells is not having a banner year. (And once again, Alex Rios is not hitting a lick when he lines up in CF). But neither is B.J. Upton, and the Rays' edge here is pretty minimal. The Orioles, so spectacularly bad elsewhere, are the class of the division - Granderson in Detroit has been the best in the league. Tampa stretches its edge over Toronto to 30 runs created.

RF     GP  AB  R   H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
Baltimore  97 396 61 118  30  1  12   66  33  65   3  1  0  7  3    9  .298   .351  .470  .820    65
Boston   97 357 62  92  19  4  17   49  56  92   2  2  0  2  3    7  .258   .361  .476  .837    63
NY Yankees 98 349 55  88  22  0  17   56  61  81   2  1  2  5  5   10  .252   .367  .461  .828    61
Tampa Bay 99 331 45  89  27  2  10   53  47  68  11  5  0  2  0    3  .269   .358  .453  .811    56
Toronto    99 399 49 104  24  2  12   53  30  64  17  3  0  3  6   14  .261   .320  .421  .741    52
See the previous position. Suzuki in Seattle has been the class of the league, while Nick Markakis has given the Orioles the best production in the division. As some have observed, Alex Rios is not having the year of his life, and Tampa's Gross-Zobrist-Kapler combo gives them a small edge, enough to stretch their advantage over Toronto to 34 runs created.

DH     GP  AB  R   H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP  BAVG    OBP   SLG   OPS    RC
NY Yankees 89 325 52  85  19  2  19   57  52  62   3  1  0  3  3    6  .262   .366  .508  .873    62
Baltimore  88 329 48  92  18  1  20   62  36  61   1  1  0  0  2    6  .280   .354  .523  .877    60
Tampa Bay  89 320 45  79  15  0  11   56  53  77   2  0  0  4  3    7  .247   .355  .397  .752    48
Boston    88 330 41  75  21  2  11   51  44  86   0  2  0  5  5    5  .227   .323  .403  .726    45
Toronto    90 350 49  86  24  0  12   48  35  65   2  1  1  0  1   12  .246   .316  .417  .733    44
Ouch. I didn't see that coming either. Adam Lind is the closest thing to a full-time DH in the whole American League - he leads AL hitters in plate appearances as a DH - and Lind has been very, very good. But even so, Lind has played 62 games as a DH and the guys who have filled in when he's been in LF have been, without exception, awful. In those 28 games, Toronto DHs not named Adam Lind have hit .147 (15-102 ) with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs. Might as well let the pitcher hit. This has mostly been Kevin Millar (8-62), of course, but the occasional fill-ins have been just as horrible. Aaron Hill is 0-9 as a DH. Wells is 1-6. Dellucci went 1-7. Snider and Bautista are both 0-3. In fact, Lind, Millar, and Russ Adams - Russ Adams! - are the only Blue Jays with more than one hit as a DH.  The White Sox, who have the good fortune to employ Jim Thome, have received the best productionfrom the DH position. As for Tampa, Pat Burrell has been pretty awful but Willy Aybar has been sensational when used as a DH, and he's more than made up for it. It pads their edge over Toronto to 38 runs created... and great gosh almighty! That's where we came in.

To summarize:

C    TOR  +  9
1b TBR + 5
2b TOR + 5
3b TBR + 5
SS TBR + 11
LF TBR + 18
CF TBR + 4
RF TBR + 4
DH TBR + 4
Tampa has an edge at seven of the nine spots in the lineup. In five of those cases, it's a small edge. Of course, when you're running the table, small edges add up. From small things, baby, big things someday come. But it's still noteworthy that almost half of the gap between the two offenses comes from one position on the diamond.
Jays and Rays | 147 comments | Create New Account
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Gerry - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#203282) #

But on the whole, the difference between Toronto and Tampa isn't on the pitcher's mound.

Some of it is but it is not in the pitching statistics, it's in the won/loss record as you note.  It probably should be put down to luck, or bad luck in Toronto's case, or the inability of some of Toronto's best hitters to get a hit with runners in scoring position.  And that takes us back to the hitters again.

Nice summary Magpie.

RhyZa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#203285) #
Is it too simplistic to just blame it all on Wells and Rios?
Mylegacy - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#203288) #
Rhyza - no - it's as simple as that.

Wells home record is a record in futility. Rios walks through space with an air of indifference that only a zombie could match.



Mick Doherty - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#203289) #
Mags, really quality work. Good detail showing how the Jays are genuinely thisclose to being ... um , a moderately distant third-place club? (Just funnin', folks. Excellent analysis, for real!)
Magpie - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#203290) #
Is it too simplistic to just blame it all on Wells and Rios?

Hey, fine by me!

If anyone has seen a stranger batting split than this, I'd like to know about it.

Split  G  PA  AB   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG  OBP  SLG  OPS  GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Home   49 203 183 19 32 11  0  4  17  4  0 17 25 .175 .241 .301 .542   7   0   0  3  1   4  .178    53    41
Away   47 220 208 36 69 14  2  6  22  9  2 11 26 .332 .364 .505 .868   5   0   0  1  0   3  .356   143   137
Coming into this season, Wells had always hit a little better at home - same BAVG, a little bit more power. His road numbers strongly suggest he can still hit. This has got to be in his head. He's trying to earn twenty million dollars with this at bat. It's not going to work, and it could get worse. But still... look at his BAVG on balls in play at home. How is that possible?
Dewey - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#203291) #
Nicely done, Magpie.  You are to Da Box as Doc is to the Jays.  Do you have a no-trade clause?  Will you be around after the trade deadline?
Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#203293) #

You can pluck different numbers and come to a different answer.

Baseball Prospectus' third order winning percentages have the Rays at 7.2 games better then the Jays at this point in the season.

Rays 60.5-38.5

Toronto 53.4-45.6

According to that metric the Rays have had more 'BAD LUCK' then Toronto.  They are underplaying their projection by 6.5 games and the Jays are unperforming by 5.4 games.

The third order wins are based on Adjusted EQR and Adjusted EQRA.  The adjusted means it corrects for strength of quality of opponent.

slitheringslider - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#203294) #
It looks like J.P. Ricciardi is going to botch this Halladay trade. Halladay is my favourite player on the Blue Jays, probably of all time, but it is definitely the right decision to trade him. It will help speed up the recovery process as it is safe to assume that the current club is no more than an 88 win team in the AL East. Although I have no insights into his negotiation skills, I just have a sense when it comes to big decisions about the team he is very indecisive about them. Everyone in baseball are saying Halladay's value won't be any higher, WHAT IS HE WAITING FOR? Is he bluffing? Waiting for a higher last minute offer? I agree that Phillies' counteroffer isn't sufficient, but J.P. is just teasing us with all these rumours and no result. Similarly, Rolen and Scutaro's value won't be any higher than it is right now, if he can get close to dollar for the dollar, he should pull the trigger, cause those 2 will not be part of the Jays' next championship team. J.P. Ricciardi has a knack for holding on to his assets when they are at peak value than give them away for cents on the dollar when their value vanishes like subprime mortgage. Like holding on and extending Wells after his 2007 season instead of trading him for something, trading BJ Ryan when he still have some value after posting 30+ saves last year (I feel like a lot of people know he is gonna be risky but GMs will pay for saves), and releasing Reed Johnson when he could've traded him (at least not after killing his own leverage for signing Shannon Stewart). I believe the value of a lot of our players are peaking right now and should be cashed in RIGHT NOW. Even if we don't get what we believe to be market value for them at this moment, the return we get for them will NEVER be any higher.  I am so sick of stagnating in 3rd place EVERY !@$#^^$# year. We are no Boston or New York with our payroll, we need to follow the Larry Beinfest model with the Marlins. Suck for 3 years, win a championship, cash all your valuable chips in and restart the process. Sure it sucks when the Blue Jays struggle to 65 win seasons, but at least there is optimism that the club MAY reach the holy grail. I'll much rather sit through atrocious seasons and watch us get a chance at elite talents like Bryce Harper than watch us win 85 games every year.

Sorry to everyone if I turned this into a JP bash. I for the most part have been supportive of him over the years, but with the way the team is playing these days and his indecisiveness is just really pissing me off these days. I really have no clue what he is waiting for. I really hope he is just bluffing. Even if all the prospects we get back fail 5 years down the road at least he can say he believe it will make the team better and lead the Jays closer to a Championship. All we have right now is ungrounded hop that our players will all exceed career norms for a magical run at a title.

VBF - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#203295) #

Everyone in baseball are saying Halladay's value won't be any higher

You know there's still 4 more days to go, right?

Teams are generally unwilling to give up current major leaguers at this point in the year because they want to keep their rosters and lineups intact for the playoffs. They're more willing to sacrifice the future if it means an excellent shot at a World Series. Come the offseason, teams may shift this idea and be more willing to part with member of their current roster instead of giving away a blue chip, can't miss prospect. Pair that with the panic that can set in when they don't acquire the free agents they wanted, and there may be more of what JP wants in the offseason.

And one more completed Cy young season under his belt may also help his value in the offseason.

slitheringslider - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#203296) #
"You know there's still 4 more days to go, right?

Teams are generally unwilling to give up current major leaguers at this point in the year because they want to keep their rosters and lineups intact for the playoffs. They're more willing to sacrifice the future if it means an excellent shot at a World Series. Come the offseason, teams may shift this idea and be more willing to part with member of their current roster instead of giving away a blue chip, can't miss prospect. Pair that with the panic that can set in when they don't acquire the free agents they wanted, and there may be more of what JP wants in the offseason.

And one more completed Cy young season under his belt may also help his value in the offseason."

As I said I do understand that there are 4 more days left, but Ricciardi's "self-imposed deadline" is tomorrow (which from what I read around the internet no one is taking that too seriously. Sure this is not the be-all end-all of all future Halladay trade rumour. Yea we do still have a year and a half to trade him. IMO (I could very well be wrong), the longer the service Halladay can get, the more a club is willing to give up. Halladay has established himself as a Top-5 pitcher in baseball for so long now, people know what he is capable of doing. I doubt there is anything he can accomplish this year that can further increase his value. He is 32, he is on the other side of the curve. We can agree to disagree, but I feel like his value (much like Wells' was 2 years ago) will never be higher.
Dave Till - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#203297) #
The Master of the Data Tables strikes again. Excellent job as always.

Any analysis of the offense needs, IMHO, to mention that the Jays were clubbing opposing pitchers into submission in the spring, and aren't doing so much of that now. They scored nearly 6 runs a game in April; in July, it's been 4.35 (if ESPN's stats page is to be believed).

But I didn't realize that Tampa Bay's bats have gone even colder: in July, the ex-Devils have scored 74 runs in 20 games, tying them for worst in the league (and 13 fewer than Toronto). I suspect that the Rays are learning what the Jays already know: the AL East is one tough neighbourhood to hang out in.

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#203298) #

I think that you should probably relax until the 31st before you decide it's botched.  The internal deadline is silly and there is really no logic with it anyway.  Why can't Halladay pitch that close to the deadline?  He's made his last few starts in this whirlwind of rumors.  It's just Riccardi trying to get teams to step up their offers more quickly and shockingly it hasn't worked.

I also think that while most of the time the player with 1.33 seasons left to contribute is at a higher value then in the coming offseason it might be different in this economic climate.  Based on what Holliday produced  for the A's I think that there is a chance that Halladay's value will be higher in the offseason. 

If the reports in the press about what Riccardi has turned down are accurate then there is no decision to really be made.  He can't trade Halladay for magic beans, he needs to get value back.

katman - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#203299) #
slitheringslider,

Nobody was going to pay anything for B.J. Ryan. Nooooobody. The fact that you want it to be true, doesn't make it true. Nobody ever talked about this, there was not one rumor about this, nobody was interested. End the fantasy, live here in reality.

And your fantasy breaks down even if someone was willing to consider it. The net difference between trading him before this season and letting him go was probably about $1 million, because you'd have to pay almost all his salary to move him, and we weren't going to get anything worth having in return. At which point, for the minor variable costs and zero return, why not take a flyer and see how his recovery could go? If it doesn't work, you couldn't have done much with any minor salary savings anyway. If it does work, you have a viable closer you can trade for all of his salary plus actual return - or just keep.

Which is why it paid the Jays to want him, but not anyone else.

Barring farm system development, you're not going to get a player who really upgrades the team for less than $3.5-4 million. Which means that unless the Jays could end up saving that much in salary, and had a candidate they believed they could buy with those funds, it wasn't worth it. In a market for closers that was very weak even for top-flight, healthy guys, that just wasn't going to happen. Not for a questionable injury case (as TJ always is) who didn't look very good getting the saves he got last year.
cascando - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#203300) #
"But still... look at his BAVG on balls in play at home. How is that possible?"

Major leaguers find it really easy to catch high popups.
Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#203301) #
What is unfortunate about this season is that ownership apparently decided that some of the payroll shedded when Burnett left could not be used to buy additional depth at the LF/DH slot once the team had started off very well.  The Rays added Burrell during the off-season at reasonable cost.  Being captured by a recession mentality can be as dangerous as being captured by an inflationary mentality.
MatO - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#203302) #

Toronto 53.4-45.6

Jim.  You do realize that this is actually a positive Jays posting.  How is that possible?

Magpie - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#203303) #
Nobody was going to pay anything for B.J. Ryan.

On a related  subject, nobody was going to pay anything for Reed Johnson, either. In order to trade him, the Jays would have had to pick up his contract first. That done, you find there's normally not a lot of people lining up to pay $3 million for a 30 year old fourth outfielder coming off back surgery.
Moe - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#203304) #
Some thoughts/questions:

1. Could it be worthwhile to trade Roy now for a lesser package since it also allows to trade Rolen, Scut, Overbay, Downs et al. and hence allows for a bigger overall haul?

2. If you don't trade Roy now, why would you trade him in the off-season? Trading him in the off-season means giving up on 2010 (and 2011). But then you might as well do that now when you can get more for him b/c whoever gets him gets to pay for 2 playoffs with Roy. And we then could always trade him next year and get Matt LaPorta +2, but remember, the Indians traded CC much before the deadline!

3. Should you maybe go for quantity? I remember last year in the Harden trade people were not too excited about the package, saying the A's went for quantity and not quality. Now, this trade is called more or less successful. Given that prospect development is a bit of a crap-shot, you might as well do 5 for 1 instead of 3 for 1 if non of the prospects is considered the next big thing (think Evan Longoria or King Felix)

4. What is Roy's value? Here everyone said Drabek, Happ and Brown are not enough, others think it's too much (e.g. our friend Heyman of SI). I tend to agree that it's not enough b/c non of them is the next big thing and Roy would likely bring 1 of comparable draft outcome (2 picks should lead to 1 upper-midlevel AAA prospect) and the other team gets the best pitcher in the AL for 2 payoff runs. But why not go the quantity route and get 4-5 players (Drabek, Brown, Carrasco, Donald, and Taylor) -- of course Philly may not do that either.

5. One interesting point by Rosenthal: "Consider: the Blue Jays owe Halladay roughly $20.45 million between now and the end of the 2010 season. But since they are sure to miss the playoffs this year, they are basically paying him for one potential pennant race, next year, in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. That is a huge chunk of money for one starting pitcher in one pennant race."
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9858348/For-his-sake,-Ricciardi-better-be-bluffing

Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#203305) #

I know how the numbers work and what the effect of being 0-7 in extra innings games is.  I realize they are a few games better then 48-51.  I also see that they have the hardest schedule in baseball the rest of the way (BP studied this last week) and aren't likely to finish better then .500. 

I can see that every other team in the division can be expected to be better in the near future and I don't see any real way to improve the Jays other then getting a ridiculous package for Halladay.  Based on how the other teams are negoitating I think they see what I see:   A team that NEEDS to shed payroll because they have a crippling amount of money already spent in 2010 and going forward. 

This trading deadline is the inflection point of a team that is going from solid results in a difficult division to a team that is about to lose a lot of ground that will be very difficult to make up. 

I saw a note that Olney says the Jays are interested in resigning Scutaro even if they trade him now.  They think they are going to get more now in a trade then they would give up in compensation to sign him in the offseason?  That seems hard to believe.  I think that is how financially stuck this team is - they are willing to trade for a prospect who has already has his bonus paid then have to pony up to pay prospects they would get if Scutaro signed elsewhere.

Forkball - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#203306) #
I think that you should probably relax until the 31st before you decide it's botched. 

No kidding.  It's not like a team put out a great offer, the Jays turned it down, and now it's not out there anymore.  I suspect that we'll see a deal done that falls between the two reported offers that the Jays and Phils have apparently turned down.

And mark me down for the Jays keeping Scuturo unless they get a B+ or better prospect (which I can't imagine happening).  If the Jays keep him they have a solid SS which they won't have otherwise (unless they pick one up in trade, and I'm not sure Jason Donald is someone to rely on in a Phillie trade).  If they don't they'll get picks which are likely better than what would be offered in trade.  Most likely, they'll offer arbitration, no team will be interested in forfeiting picks, and he'll be back with the Jays on a one year deal.

And going back to the positional tables, the lack of DH production is another sign that Ricciardi doesn't have ability to put together a team to beat the teams in his division.  I'll blame that, and the lack of being able to identify why so many pitchers get hurt, before I blame Wells (or Rios who really shouldn't be in that kind of discussion).
Moe - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#203309) #
They think they are going to get more now in a trade then they would give up in compensation to sign him in the offseason?  That seems hard to believe.

If the Jays sign Scut in the off-season and he is a type A FA, they have to give up 1 pick. However, the team that trades for him now and loses him again gets 2 picks plus 2 months of SS. So why should the Jays not get more now than the give up to re-sign him?

The other thing to keep in mind is that one prospect in AAA is more valuable than a 2nd round pick (which is what the Jays likely will have to give up based on being in the bottom 15 of the standings) because that pick has only a 50% of ever making it there (reduced risk), is further along (payoff is nearer). The slot money in the 2nd round is not that much that it should really affect this decision. And I also doubt that the Jays are that poor. The last thing Rogers needs is the Marlins in Toronto.
Jim - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#203310) #

If they keep Scutaro and he signs elsewhere they would get two picks, one of which might be in the first round.  That is where I'm saying they might not want to make the financial investment.  If they end up with 2 first rounders and a supplemental in the June 2010 draft that might cost more then they are willing to spend. 

They could still play themselves into the top 15 and then cost themselves their own first rounder by signing an A free agent as well.  It's not likely but they could shoot themselves in the foot by finishing strong. 

It seems to me the team trading for Scutaro is getting a better deal then Toronto unless they get a really good player in the initial trade.  Maybe it will make sense if it happens.

RhyZa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#203311) #
Has there been any indication that Roy doesn't want to go to Texas?  They'd be at the top of the list in terms of prospect pools.  I hope my fear that we'll be underwhelmed with the deal is unfounded.  I have no problem with JP refusing sub-par offers, it's just a question of whether his utilization of the media to create a bidding war will work or backfire.
Jays2010 - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#203313) #

Nobody was going to pay anything for B.J. Ryan. Nooooobody. The fact that you want it to be true, doesn't make it true. Nobody ever talked about this, there was not one rumor about this, nobody was interested.

There were rumblings after Fuentes signed that he may have been the "proven" closer that Tony Larussa desired. I believe JP made a remark in the offseason to the effect of "the only way we can spend $10 million is if we give up $10 million" and I, for one, would have preferred someone like Abreu (even if it cost $10 million for one year) over BJ. Ryan and Fuentes had some comparable numbers in 2008 and a two year commitment for a "proven" closer isn't too bad. I think the Jays could have moved him; however, I don't necessarily think JP could have reassigned that money into a DH if he desired, for example.

There were rumours two years ago about the Jays possibly getting Kemp and either Billingsley or Penny for Wells. This was right before teams became overly protective of their prospects (not that I can blame teams for this). Imagine how much better this team would be if that happened. Maybe Billingsley in the rotation means that someone like Litsch or Marcum does not get their chance in 2007...but so what? And JP openly talked about the possibility of trading VW a few weeks before that extension was signed...I guess I'll blame Godfrey because that does not seem like a JP contract...but seriously...one move and nobody hates JP nearly as much (and for all we know he wanted to make that kind of move - it's a Billy Beane-type move anyway) and the Blue Jays are much better.

Gerry - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#203314) #

Jayson Stark has an update that things are not going well between the Jays and Philadelphia.

An interesting paragraph is this one regarding Texas:

The Rangers have asked Toronto to eat part of that money. But officials of two teams that have talked to the Blue Jays say that's not happening. "They're not taking any money," one of those officials said. "That's one of the reasons they're trading him."

If true, this confirms the suspicion that JP has been told to lower payroll.

Frank Markotich - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#203318) #

Obviously we're dealing with rumours here, but I would find it disturbing if it were true that the Blue Jays were utterly unwilling to pay salary even if the return in talent was high enough.

The team's stance has been that Halladay won't be traded if the offers are insufficient, in which case they're paying the salary anyway.

What to believe, what to believe.

 

Alex Obal - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#203319) #
1. What Frank said.

2. Awesome, Magpie.

Mylegacy - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#203324) #
Frank above - and others - has suggested that management may have ordered JP to cut salary...

WRONG...

Management has DEMANDED that JP cut salary. There is NO OTHER explanation that makes ANY SENSE. When JP says otherwise he is LYING through his hat - AND if he is to get anything for Roy and the rest of the herd he HAS TO LIE - or other GM's will know they've got him boxed in.

The WHOLE idea was to compete in 2010 BEFORE our fast start. The ONLY key piece to the team NOT signed for next year is Scutaro. On the pitching front we've DISCOVERED three POSSIBLE gems in Romero, Cecil and Rzepylotsofotherlettersandseveralmorezsandys. IF Wells could be put up in hotel next year before every home game and Rios could be given Bicarb suppositories before every game then THIS TEAM with Snider and Dopirak could contend. And IF NOT then at least it would be fun to watch Rios prance funnily in RF as the bicarb suppositories slowly effervessed.

timpinder - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#203325) #

It's a little off topic (though somebody in every thread seems to mention J.P. Ricciardi's competence as GM), but there's a poll on ESPN asking readers to rank the General Managers.

The consensus thus far is that Ricciardi is an above average GM.  Of course, once Bauxites start visiting the site and voting I imagine his ranking will plummet.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/rank?versionId=1&listId=336#topOfList

TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#203326) #
The one thing that makes me most frustrated about the rays is Bartlett. Especially alongside Zobrist and after Pena. It's like that lady in West Virginia who's won the lottery like seven times or something.

On another note - am I the only one who thinks the writers - especially Rosenthal - are actively rooting for Doc to go to a "better" franchise so they can ignore the Jays completely?



TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#203327) #
Was just listening to Blair on the Fan this morning and he was RIPPING Wells and the team.

On the team he said things so strongly Jim would maybe leap to the Jays defense, lol. He called them an awful awful team.

I might take that more seriously if he hadn't went on and on about how Wells' body was breaking down on him and he had no power any more....while not acknowledging (or being challenged by the hosts to) the fact that Wells apparently has a healthy body on the road.

He also implied broadly that Wells doesn't care about the boos and will happily take his exorbinant pay for doing nothing from now to 2014 without a care in the world to the fans' reaction.

He might as well have come out and said Wells doesn't care about baseball :D

It must suck for him to cover a team he hates so badly.


timpinder - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#203328) #

I'm rooting for Doc to go too, for his sake.  He's my favourite player but he needs to win and he's already 32 years old (reminds of Ray Bourque - class act, great player, was always with one team, but just wanted to win).  I don't mean to sound negative but this Jays' team isn't going to win next year, or in the immediate future.  The AL East is too tough and I think it's time for a complete rebuild, and Halladay should net 4 players that will immediately be among the Jays' top 10 prospects.  That rebuild should also include signing guys out of slot.  I will be VERY disappointed if Paxton isn't signed, as it will indicate to me that the Jays will be a perpetual middle-of-the-road team that by choice won't spend what it takes in the draft to win, and by financial restrictions won't spend what it takes in the free agent market to win.

TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#203330) #
Maybe I'm the only one but there is NEVER a time - past present or future - when my wish is to see my favorite team get worse for the sake of any one player, even Doc (and Doc may be the classiest guy I've ever rooted for).

How old was Roger Clemens, for instance, when he finally got a ring?

When a player gets so old he's no longer crucial to the success of my franchise, THEN i'll get the warm fuzzies if he gets a ring somewhere else (as long as it's not the Yankees)
but even then I'd get an ever better feeling knowing he was our Brett, Gwynn, Ripkin, Yount

Like I said, maybe it's just me...


Ryan Day - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#203331) #
The consensus thus far is that Ricciardi is an above average GM.

I'd say Ricciardi is an above-average GM. The problem is that the AL East already has one team with an great GM and massive payroll, and one team with an above-average GM and an incredibly massive payroll. The whole problem is that if you're going to compete with New York and Boston every year, you need a great GM. I don't know how many of those are out there.
TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#203332) #
I'd pretty strongly disagree with the idea that Cashman is an above average GM. He has one strength and that's swooping in and signing a guy away from any other offer.

but then when you have the Checkbook of the Gods in one had and Yankee History and mistique in the other....how good do you have to be to do that?


TamRa - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#203333) #
Money aside (the extent to which Vernon Wells is making twice what he should be is a sunk cost) I grow tired of the idea that the Wells we are seeing this year (at home) is what we have to look forward to the next five years. Offensively i mean.

Go to BR and check his stats for 2003-2006...compare them to his 2008 stats (and note that's in 2/3 of a season. THAT is the player we should expect to get for our $20+ million.

Yes, for reasons unknown he can't hit at home this year...but the odds that this freakish performance carries more weight than years and years of production (AND his road hitting this year) strikes me as myopic.

YES he needs to move to LF
YES even as an .850 hitter he's making twice what his hitting is worth

But no...he's not going to hit .730 or some such the next five years.




Petey Baseball - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#203334) #
"I'd imagine when Bauxites go to visit his rating will plummet"

Its funny, because J.P. admittedly used to visit this site because we were intrigued by what he was doing with the team. Gradually, most of the people who post on here have turned against him.

 Dave Naylor of the Globe called him "the most unpopular G.M. in Toronto sports history." I think that's a tad harsh.


CeeBee - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#203335) #
Once again you have raised the bar on data tables Magpie :)  I think da box should sign you to a long term deal with a no trade contract.... 30 years or so should do :)
lexomatic - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#203336) #
Maybe I'm the only one but there is NEVER a time - past present or future - when my wish is to see my favorite team get worse for the sake of any one player, even Doc (and Doc may be the classiest guy I've ever rooted for).
You're totally not alone on the above Will. I also don't understand the sentiment on here expressing he's earned the right to go to a good team... sure, he can do that when he's a free agent. That's how the system works.

Dave Naylor of the Globe called him "the most unpopular G.M. in Toronto sports history." I think that's a tad harsh.
I think it's obviously Ferguson the recent leafs gm who owns that title. He could do no right. Trade for players and he's playing ot win now and screwing up the farm. trading for bad players etc. 

Wells has some soul-searching to do this off-season. If he can't hack it, he should do everyone a favor and quit, enjoy his family, and lead a normal life.

also none of the formatting is working for me on this post when i use tags.
Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#203337) #
Batting averages are a poor marker for offensive prowess, but when the 3-4-5-6 in your batting order in late July are hitting .211, .182, .199 and .207, as Seattle's power core for tonight are managing, you've got some problems.
Geoff - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#203338) #
Toronto should officially shorten its team name to just 'Jays'.

The blue in the name makes me depressed.

sweat - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#203340) #
maybe success would follow just like the Rays.  That said, I don't want the name to change.
Moe - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#203341) #
I have question and wanted to hear your thoughts:
The conventional wisdom is that the price to get Roy for an AL East club is higher than for the Phillies (or any other non AL East club). Consider the following situation: The Boston matches the asking price for the Phillies (but not the AL East price) and the Phillies balk and offer less. What do you do? Do you keep Roy, or do you give him to Boston?

The reasoning for giving him up is as follows: you value Doc at a certain price. Someone matches that price, you sell, no matter to whom.

The normal reasoning why you would want more from Boston is that you will (a) want to weaken you opponent down the road by taking his prospects and (b) now have to bat against Doc more often. However, (a) does not affect your valuation of Roy and (b) doesn't affect it much either since after trading Roy, the Jays won't content in 2010 (if they do, Roy becomes an example for the Ewing Theory) and after 2010 Roy becomes a FA and could sign with an AL East team anyways or leave Boston again.
PeteMoss - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#203342) #
The one thing that makes me most frustrated about the rays is Bartlett. Especially alongside Zobrist and after Pena. It's like that lady in West Virginia who's won the lottery like seven times or something.

Couldn't Rays fans say the same thing about Scutaro and Hill.  Scutaro's a journeymen who's suddenly developed into an All-star calibar player and Hill, like Zobrist was once highly regarded and showed some signs in the past... but have suddenly blossomed into stars. 
katman - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#203343) #
Excellent questions up there, Moe, I think they pretty much define the debate.

And I agree with your reasoning in the last post. Trade Roy to the best offer received, if that offer is sufficient. Even if it's a AL East team.
Magpie - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#203344) #
"the most unpopular G.M. in Toronto sports history."

I'll buy that - in fact he's been unpopular since the day he took the job with a large chunk of the media who report on the team every day.

Unpopular is not the same as incompetent. The local hoops team used to be guided by the incomparable Isiah Thomas himself. And being of the elderly persuasion, I can remember when the hockey team was being run by Gerry McNamara. Or - and yes, this really happened - Gord Stellick. Truth to tell, Punch Imlach's second tour was nothing short of disastrous.

The bar's been set pretty low in these parts.
Magpie - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#203345) #
Couldn't Rays fans say the same thing about Scutaro and Hill. Scutaro's a journeymen who's suddenly developed into an All-star calibar player and Hill, like Zobrist was once highly regarded and showed some signs in the past... but have suddenly blossomed into stars.

They can say it, but I'm not buying.

Coming into this season, Scutaro had played 696 games and has a career OPS+ of 86; Bartlett has played 449 games and has a career OPS+ of 85. This year Scutaro is having his best season (OPS+ of 116) by quite a bit. So is Bartlett, but OPS+ of 134? Scutaro's improved his production by 136% which is impressive and unusual; Bartlett has improved his by 158%. Which is insane.

Hill and Zobrist... I dunno. Zobrist certainly hit well in the minors but through 2007 he'd hit .200/.234/.275 in 83 major league games. It's not like he was a kid - he was 26 years old. Meanwhile Aaron Hill, who was then and still is almost a year younger than Zobrist, was coming off his third season with Toronto (in which he'd hit .291 with 17 HR and 47 2b.)
Jays2010 - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#203346) #

"the most unpopular G.M. in Toronto sports history."

I'll buy that - in fact he's been unpopular since the day he took the job with a large chunk of the media who report on the team every day.

Unpopular is not the same as incompetent.

As a fan of the Jays and JP, I cannot stand when people compare him to JFJ. It is beyond ridiculous when JFJ has a max payroll, weak conference and still cannot be one of the top half teams in their respective conference. On the other hand, this has been a team that would make the playoffs every year (i.e. they are clearly one of the top 15 teams in baseball) since JP received a payroll boost into the middle of the pack since 2006. Not to mention the fact that being in the same division as the Yanks/Red Sox does make it difficult to sign free agents without overpaying (Ryan/Burnett/Thomas).

Trying to win in the AL East in 'tweener' mode is the hardest GM job in baseball, in my opinion. Poor GMs who have developed very little talent such as Kevin Towers receive more credit simply because of the division. Really, I do not have a problem with people suggesting that the Jays could use "a new set of eyes" as the GM. But it's frustrating when people refuse to acknowledge that a balanced schedule & nixing of the divisions is all it would take to keep Doc in Toronto because this is a very good team that should improve next year.

On another note...please, free Travis Snider! With Richmond back soon the Jays can field a similar team the last 2 months of the year as they will have to begin 2010 (depending on whether or not Scoot/Barajs resign or are traded before the deadline). Let's see how good this team can be and not worry about Travis Snider as a super two.

Magpie - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#203347) #
Wow! Scott Rolen has an amazing vertical leap. Especially for a 240 lb white guy...
Jays2010 - Monday, July 27 2009 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#203348) #

JP: We have a problem. Vernon Wells is not hitting at home this year. But...he is hitting over .330 on the road and he would have had 30 HRs and 117 RBIs in a full year last year. So we are willing to give you the CF you desire at a very good rate.

Ken Williams: I could go as high as $57 million over the next 5 years for...Brian Anderson?

JP: Done. We'll eat $10 million a year and you get a gold glove power hitting CF for $11.4 million/year.

Rogers agrees that the $50 million is a sunk cost attributable to Paul Godfrey. Wells goes on to an .825 OPS in his 5 years in Chicago but after 2010 Ken Williams realizes that VW cannot play CF. But Wells hits 25 HRs, 90 RBIs and swipes 20 bags a year so whatever. And the Blue Jays live happily ever after.

westcoast dude - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#203349) #
Four consecutive 2-out RBI singles  by Rios, Barajas, Inglett and Scutaro in a bat around sixth  are making a winner out of Ricky Romero.  Maybe Doc needs to hang around for 2010 as per Plan A. Tonight is one of those magical team efforts that invariably accompany Ricky's starts.  Somebody please explain to Rogers that the Loonie is heading for par and there is no reason to panic.
Moe - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#203351) #
Why is Downs pitching in the 8th inning of a 11-4 game? Has he been demoted or are they show-casing him? Or is it Cito being Cito?
damos - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#203352) #
"On another note - am I the only one who thinks the writers - especially Rosenthal - are actively rooting for Doc to go to a "better" franchise so they can ignore the Jays completely?"


--I've definitely felt this way.  Heyman's drunken warblings actually make me kind of angry.  Heyman, Rosenthal, Gammons...it feels like they all want Doc into a big U.S. market, Toronto be damned.  They want him there & they want the the acquiring team to only give up a pittance.

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#203353) #
Quite frankly, Downs needs the work.  He spent about a month not pitching and has showed some rust, no?
Magpie - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#203354) #
Why is Downs pitching in the 8th inning of a 11-4 game?

Gaston was asked about Downs' struggles over the weekend. He said he thought Downs didn't quite have his command back since returning from the DL. He said he'd like to give him a chance to get in some work in a non-pressure situation.

And... voila!
Moe - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#203355) #
Thanks for the quick info.
Geoff - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:00 AM EDT (#203358) #
Rogers agrees that the $50 million is a sunk cost attributable to Paul Godfrey. Wells goes on to an .825 OPS in his 5 years in Chicago but after 2010 Ken Williams realizes that VW cannot play CF. But Wells hits 25 HRs, 90 RBIs and swipes 20 bags a year so whatever. And the Blue Jays live happily ever after.

Isn't this just a creative solution of creating a new perception? If Rogers agrees to write off $50 million as a sunk cost on VW's contract, could they not as easily hold on to VW and let him play to a performance that would seem more commiserate to his new rate of pay?

But the public wouldn't get the perception as easily if the Jays held on to Wells as if they moved him out. How should we understand that they wrote off $50 million if they didn't hand that money and VW off to another team? Otherwise, it looks to us like they are paying one player too much damn money for his performance. If he was playing somewhere else, it doesn't look quite so bad.

If there was some common practice by which Rogers could hold a press conference and say to VW, "We are hereby giving you $50 million dollars, which will be deducted from the amount of salary we are paying you as it shall heretofore be discussed. Sorry that you are no longer a $100 million player, but we hope to see you do good things in the field for us the next few years."

Vernon doesn't receive any less money, it's just that the public relations perception has been ameliorated. It's better even.

Win, win, win. Unless of course VW's play worsens and they have to write off another $40 million in a couple years. That would have to start looking bad.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:23 AM EDT (#203361) #
On another note...please, free Travis Snider!

I don't think there's any rush. He was pretty bad in the majors. He spent some time on the DL with a bad back. He's still just hitting .248 and striking out once a game. He probably needs some time to polish his game before being exposed to major league pitching again.
Sano - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:33 AM EDT (#203363) #
What about Dopirak?  We've rushed Zep because his numbers were that good, hasn't Dopirak done enough to warrant the PA's instead of Inglett?
cascando - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#203365) #
If Wells has another blah year next year, I think he should be approached about restructuring his deal by deferring some money.  This isn't a total rarity in baseball, as I understand it, and Vernon seems like the type that might go for it if it would help the team.  Maybe reduce his annual salary to $12-15 million and defer the rest.  If he cares at all about his image (unclear) this would probably be a helpful gesture.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#203366) #
For those who missed it, including me, it was Marcum's back that had him out of his last rehab start.  It doesn't sound serious at all.
Forkball - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#203367) #
That's simply wishful thinking about Wells.  He won't and he shouldn't.  (and if he did you'd have people complaining 10 years from now that the Jays are still paying for Wells' awful contract)  You might see deferred money when a contract is signed, but very rarely, if any, during the contract.

I don't think Dopriak is ready for the big leagues, and Snider needs to go back to dominating before he's called up, but Randy Ruiz is 4th in the PCL in OPS.  He can't be worse at DH than the "Toronto DHs not named Adam Lind hitting .147 (15-102 ) with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs".

cascando - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#203373) #

That's simply wishful thinking about Wells. 

Yes, you're probably right, but it wouldn't exactly be unprecedented.  Andruw Jones, A-Rod, Tom Glavine, Kenny Rogers have all agreed to defer money in the recent past. 

I also don't see any reason to call Snider up before September.  He still appears to need work, and it probably won't hurt him to do that in Vegas. 

FisherCat - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#203374) #

From FoxSports live trade tracker:

Indians salvage something from Garko 10:19 a.m.

The Indians appeared to pull off a minor coup by trading first baseman Ryan Garko for Class A left-hander Scott Barnes, the Giants' ninth- best prospect according to Baseball .

The minute after the non-waiver deadline passed Friday at 4 p.m. ET, Garko's trade value would have plummeted to almost zero.

Matt LaPorta, the Indians' top prospect, likely will end up at first base. The team also wants to take another look at third baseman Andy Marte, who has a .963 OPS at Class AAA.

Thus, Garko would have been a potential non-tender candidate this off- season, when he became eligible for salary arbitration for the first time.

 He is a career .283 hitter with a .355 on-base percentage, but lacks speed and the desired power at first base, and also is not a plus defender.

 Although not all of this applies to Scutaro, this should be exactly what the Jays should be looking to do with Scoot!  I mean thay caught lightning in a bottle with him this year and he plays a MUCH more valuable position, both in the field and in the lineup, than Garko does.  So regardless of whether a Halladay deal is done, Scutaro needs to be shopped heavily.  See if you can't squeeze the 2nd best SS prospect from some of these teams desperate for SS or lead-off help (aka Red Sox).

Because even if the Jays are entertaining thoughts of having Marco in 2010, they're either going to have to overpay (in money or years) or risk a heavy arbitration value!

 

christaylor - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#203376) #
I've really grown fond of Scoot but I whole heartedly agree. The Jays need to move him - however the haul needs to be better than the pick (he's going to be a type B) the Jays will get when he walks (I really hope the Jays don't over pay and give him a multi-year deal, any team that signs him at the market rate is going to be disappointed).

Also, I'd like to see Overbay moved. If not at the deadline, then in the off-season. Lind and Snider at 1B/OF would be more than adequate.

On the other hand, I really hope Rolen is not moved. The shoulder injury seems to be solved and his defense is incredible (and I think part of the reason why Scoot seems better on defense as he can cheat to his left). Rolen gives a relatively good value at the position and there's no replacement for him in the Jays system (there isn't for Scoot either but they could go for an all-glove SS - but no J-Mac, please).

Unless the team is ripped apart, the Jays in 2010 ought to be better than the 2009 version - which is a pretty good team. However as has been discussed to death, in this division will probably not be enough. Sadly for the Jays and Baltimore, this situation is not likely to change any time soon.
ayjackson - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#203377) #

If Doc is moved, Rolen and Scoot could be moved for the right price.  Inglett/Bautista would likley platoon at 3B and Angel Sanchez would share SS with JMac (assuming no pieces come back in the trades).

Last I heard, Scoot was a type A free agent.

Thomas - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#203378) #
I disagree with the moving Scutaro crowd. I was also under the impression he was a Type A. I think it's very unlikely that he'd accept arbitration and wind up in a Blue Jays uniform next season given his performance this year. I'm sure Scutaro would like to set himself up for the next 2 or 3 seasons and get a reasonable payday while he has the opportunity, especially considering how thin the SS class is this offseason beyond Tejada. I think the Jays stand a fairly good chance of getting a sandwich pick and a 1st/2nd rounder if they don't deal Scutaro and the finances don't specifically prohibit the team offering him arbitration, so the team would have to get a big return to make trading him worthwhile, in my opinion.
Matthew E - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#203379) #
I have reached a level of pessimism I have never encountered before. I don't even know it by reputation. Right now, I don't think it makes any difference what the Jays do with Halladay or Scutaro or anyone. All roads end in failure and mediocrity. If Rogers announced that they were disbanding the franchise entirely and permanently I'd just shrug my shoulders.
Sano - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#203381) #
It's pretty clear to me that the price of Doc will be at least two of Happ, Drabek, Brown and then some filler prospect(s) from Taylor, Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, etc.  Come on JP, it's the right thing to do, just make it quick and get us a good deal.  I'll be so glad when this whole saga is finally over, one way or another.  The good thing is that we are in the better negotiating position- Doc's signed for next year, we could just keep him for the rest of this season and try trading him during the off season or next season.

Here's a link to the latest trade info.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4359405

FisherCat - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#203382) #

Even if one were to assume that Scutaro remains/becomes a Type "A" free agent AND that the Jays offer him arbitration.  Do the Jays really wanna risk the another AJ Burnett debacle that went from "the 2 high draft picks" to the Yankees scraps?

Some more food for thought: Which of the Jays being shopped would clear waivers after the 31st, thus still tradeable?  (I'm assuming Doc would get claimed in a heartbeat, well before he gets high enough to the big guys)

92-93 - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#203384) #
Count me among those not excited about Kyle Drabek. Has there ever been a pitcher who had Tommy John surgery as a kid (read : in the minors) that went on to a successful career as a starter? I know Mariano had his as a kid, but the only starters I can think of are Erik Bedard and Dustin McGowan. One hits the DL every single year (where he in fact sits right now) and the other's career is in jeopardy after another serious injury. I'm sure tons of others have flamed out. Drabek's 6.5 K/9 isn't exactly lighting the world on fire either.
youngid - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#203385) #
anyone else notice Jerry quoting this post almost word for word on the broadcast last night?
MatO - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#203386) #
David Wells had TJ surgery while in the Jays' minor league system.  He's maybe the best example I can think of.
Forkball - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#203387) #
Do the Jays really wanna risk the another AJ Burnett debacle that went from "the 2 high draft picks" to the Yankees scraps?

Well, the sandwich pick doesn't change regardless of who signs him.  So the variability is in the team signing him, and who else signs him.  The chance that it gets demoted to a 3rd or 4th rounder is pretty slim.

I would say that the typical sandwich pick is a B prospect when they're drafted, and a 2nd rounder might be a B- prospect.  Worst case it's a B and a C+ prospect for compensation.  If a team is offering that for Scutaro now the Jays should certainly consider it (or a single B+ prospect), but I just would be surprised to see him bring a that kind of return.

As for arbitration, even if Scutaro accepts, why would he be getting a big award?  The only impressive stats he'll put up are runs this year... everything else to an arbitrator will look pedestrian, and bad prior to this season.  I think ultimately you're looking at an Orlando Cabrera situation where no one will sign him if he declines arbritation, and I don't see him awarded more than $5 million.

Which of the Jays being shopped would clear waivers after the 31st, thus still tradeable?

Given the teams that are so unwilling to take money on these days I think a lot of players would be, including Rolen, Overbay, Rios, Wells, Bautista, McDonald, and Barajas, although I'm not sure any pitchers would - they're either cheap, effective, or both.
snider - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#203389) #

From the Rogers analyst call about the Jays:

Rogers Media president Tony Viner says the club is doing better financially than last year but needs to bring costs more in line with revenues.

Moe - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#203391) #
Rogers Media president Tony Viner says the club is doing better financially than last year but needs to bring costs more in line with revenues.

I would really like to see their internal accounting. For example, I think, Rogers owns the Centre and not the Jays, so they don't see any money for the naming rights the way other clubs do. Given how valuable that and other forms of free advertising are, and all the "free" content for Sportsnet, I highly doubt Rogers is really losing a lot of money.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#203392) #
It's pretty clear to me that the price of Doc will be at least two of Happ, Drabek, Brown and then some filler prospect(s) from Taylor, Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, etc.

Disclaimer - I'm not real concerned about Happ, but the Jays seem to be so it's in that context that I write

If the Phillies won't deal Drabek and Happ, I say that's fine as long as they add more players.

Drabek + Brown + Taylor + Knapp + Donald for Doc and some sort of throw in from among out excess relievers or something if need be.

I still am not enthused with the Phillies' prospects - and I'd still hold out to see if Texas or Boston would pony up a better offer....but if he HAS to go (which I disagree with) and he HAS to go to the Phillies, then I'd leverage their attachment to Happ into adding Taylor+ to the back end of the deal.


Jdog - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#203393) #
I really wish we could get some info on who Texas is offering. Or who Texas would be willing to offer if the Jays pick up the remainder of Halladay's salary.  If we could land a package with Smoak , Feliz , another B prospect and  Teagarden I think the jays would be better off doing that and paying this years money owed to Halladay. 
Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#203394) #
Jayson Stark at ESPN has an EXCELLENT look at the pressure on both GM's (Jays & Phillis) in the days leading up to this deadline. I really enjoyed it - have a look.
jester00 - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#203395) #
Gordon Edes @ Yahoo Sports is claiming that the Red Sox have formally offered Bucholz, Bowden and Westmoreland for Halladay. Nice to see a few more serious offers. How does this rate for everyone? Personally I don't think it is enough to trade in the division, but it is a start.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#203396) #
BTW, MLBTR has the Red Sox having offered Buchholz, Bowden and Westmoreland.

That's going to put the pressure on the Phillies if nothing else because Buchholz trumps any two of their guys IMO and humiliates Happ.

Also, Edes says the Dodgers have had internal discussions about Billingsley.

I for one don't think Martin is done and I wonder if a Billingsley/Martin core plus others  for Doc and RB and Downs blockbuster wouldn't be a good fit.


ayjackson - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#203397) #

I think the Sox offer is pretty fair, but I'd be inclined to throw in a little more (a reliever?) to get Casey Kelley as well.

As for the Phillies, Drabek, Brown and Taylor are there top 3 prospects.  JP just wants Happ because he could use another starter, with our young arms tiring.  Any package from the Phils has to have two of the top three (you'll never get all three) and some filler.

Dewey - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#203398) #
youngid - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#203385) # anyone else notice Jerry quoting this post almost word for word on the broadcast last night?

Yes, I heard that, too.  Not the first time either that the broadcast crew has profited from Da Box's ruminations.
Jays2010 - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#203399) #
Is a straight up Halladay for Kershaw trade the worst thing in the world for either team? Maybe Frasor and a minor league reliever tossed in. These Philly proposals seem underwhelming and I REALLY do not want to see Doc pitch for the Yanks/Sox. The goal is to eventually overtake one of these teams and I, for one, do not want to wait until Doc retires (considering there is a good chance he resigns with one of these beasts) for the Jays to have a shot at doing something.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#203401) #
As for the Phillies, Drabek, Brown and Taylor are there top 3 prospects.  JP just wants Happ because he could use another starter, with our young arms tiring. 

God I hope not. that is a stunningly BAD reason to hang up a deal of this magnitude on.  If we traded Doc, within a week or two we still have Marcum, Romero, and Richmond who will presumably finish out the season, Zep and Cecil can go into Early mid-September, and you can call up Purcey in September to pitch in the 4th spot.  That leaves one month, maybe 5 starts, from someone else - Tallet? Hell even Burres if need be for us to get a higher upside prospect instead of another 4/5 starter.

Without Doc we'll still have plenty of major league options next spring. If the only reason he wants Happ is rotatin filler in the short term that'd be very dissapointing.

Still, As much as I'd hate to see Doc on Boston, Buchholz alone tempts me more than that whole package from Philly.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#203402) #
Doc + Downs + Barajas
for
Bills + Kemp + Martin

!!!

I know Kemp is a bigger name to put in there but KLaw noted Torre would bat Kemp 10th if he could, so if The Joe is down on him, maybe we could get him.



Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#203403) #
IFFIN - I'm JP - the deal is now HERE.

Ryan Westmoreland 19 years old, 6'2" 196, bats L throws R, in Low full season A ball: 11 SB - 0 CS, 279/384/508.
Michael Bowden 22 years old, 6' 3" 215, throws R, in AAA: 93.1/74/35/64 whip 1.17
Clay Buchholz 24 years old, 6' 3" 190, throws R, in AAA: 99/67/30/89 whip 0.98

IF we can Squeeze out Jed Lowrie - OR anyother ALMOST FOR SURE prospect then I'm even happier.
I'll HAPPILY go into the next half decade with the following nine starters: Buchholz (R), Romero (L), Bowden (R), Cecil (L), Marcum (R), Rzepczynski, Richmond (R), Mills (L), Ray (R) ... THE LOSERS will be EXCELLENT additions to the pen.

JP - put on your Nike's and "Just do it!"

Moe - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#203404) #
From MLBTR:
Dan Roche, an anchor for WBZTV, hears that the Red Sox did not offer Buchholz, Bowden and Westmoreland for Halladay.

Forkball - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#203405) #
I know you're an optimist Will, but that's a absolutely ridiculous suggestion.  That would weaken the Dodgers this year and give up their good cheap, young players in the process.

I think I agree with the recent comments that the Philly packages aren't that appealing.  Happ doesn't strike me as anything special and the prospects are of the good/pretty good quality, but not the elite prospects.  Said another way, three years from now the Jays could look really silly for having done a deal with the Phils, like the Twins look with the Santana trade now.

The Red Sox proposal actually is better than I would have anticipated.  Bucholtz might be the best player the Jays are offered, Bowden's a solid prospect and Westmoreland is a good quality low level prospect to take a flier on.  If that's sweetened a little bit I'd probably be in favor of it. 

If the Jays added Scutaro maybe the Sox could swap out Bowden for Lowrie (as they're getting next to nothing out of SS right now).  If the Sox did that I would think they'd be the favorite this year.  I doubt the Sox would trade Lowrie, but good young SS are tougher than solid starting pitchers to find these days.

Sano - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#203406) #
Oh God the world is unfair enough, don't make us trade Doc to the Red Sox.  The thought of that is just depressing. 
TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#203407) #
I know you're an optimist Will, but that's a absolutely ridiculous suggestion.  That would weaken the Dodgers this year and give up their good cheap, young players in the process.

Well, first, I wasn't really thinking it was realistic BUT I DON'T agree it would weaken them this year apart from chemistry and such intangible.s

Martin is having a very poor offensive year and while Barajas is no great hitter, THIS year they are more or less even.

Halladay has to be an upgrade on Bills now or they wouldn't even have talked about it.

Kemp is the out-of-favor Outfielder (if the remark I referred to is accurate) out of a group of 4 guys that all should be starting and the Dodgers are pretty intense about adding a top shelf LHRP - I think what they lose on Kemp they would THINK they were gaining in adding a guy like Downs.

But no, it's not the sort of deal the Dodgers tend to make, or that contenders tend to make - and yes, in 2011 onward they lose pretty significantly on that deal - it would very much be compromising the future for a sure win now.


BTW, apparently the Boston rumor was shot down. Another writer said if the Red Sox wanted him it would take at least Buchholz, Bard and Lowrie but there's no indication the Red Sox woulld do that. One assumes you could include Scutaro in there but still...

jester00 - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#203408) #
I'd expand the deal with the Red Sox a bit and get crazy greedy. Halladay and Scoots for Buchholz Bowden Reddick One of Lowrie? Rizzo? The Sox still keep Bard, Kelley, Anderson, Tazawa, Westmoreland. I'm not asking too much am I?
TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#203409) #
KLaw said on Twitter that JP doesn't like Bard's makeup.

BTW, he's gonna be on the Fan in mere moments if anyone wants to give us a report...


TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#203410) #
Report out of Boston says a Lee to the Red Sox deal might be close.

It can only help us if the other good starters goo off-market, even if it takes a suitor out of the race.



Moe - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#203411) #
Rob Bradford at WEEI is reporting that the Red Sox are close to a deal that would net Cliff Lee from the Indians for Michael Bowden, Josh Reddick and another prospect. Stay tuned.

If this were true, would that be good or bad news for the Jays? The price seems low, but it takes the closest substitute off the market. I think I go with good news, but it's probably not true anyways. Why would the Indians not simply wait a few more days and see what happens with the Roy situation.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#203412) #

Martin is having a very poor offensive year and while Barajas is no great hitter, THIS year they are more or less even.

While their OPS's are virtuallly identical, Martin's is OBP-heavy making him the more valuable hitter. His eqA is .262. Barajas's is .243.

Moe - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#203413) #
Forget about it: (From MLBTR)

Well isn't this ridiculous. Rob Bradford at WEEI tweets: "I have not reported anything. Somebody is hacking into my account."


TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#203414) #
MLBTR now relays that the reporter in question says his account was hacked and he knows nothing about a Lee-to-Boston deal.

Weirder and weirder.


Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#203415) #
After the report that the Sox had offered B,B & W I was elated. (Depressed Roy would go to the Sox BUT delighted a SIGNIFICANT haul would be received for him). Then the report of Lee to the Sox - gutted me. I was sure the Sox were using the Jays as a stalking horse and I was furious that not only could we lose Roy but that we'd been used and outsmarted by the Sox made me sick to my tum tum.

Now - looks like the Lee leak is a phony.

Emotionally - I'm a wreck. I think I'll shut my brain off - watch the Jays slaughter the Mariners tonight - and have myself a couple of double scotchs (single malt natch') - aw the hell with it - I think I'll have four.

Go Jays!
Mylegacy - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#203416) #
On Rotoworld about 10 seconds ago they quote JP as saying, "Nothing is happening...it's my gut feeling Roy won't be traded."

Could be BOTH the so-called reports from the Sox are wrong.

Back to the Scotch - sip, sip, sip, gulp.

Sherrystar - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#203419) #

The notion that ANY prospect is "untouchable" (ex. Drabek, bard etc.) for the best pitcher in the MLB is a freakin joke. It seems like the Jays players are always undervalued while the Yankees, Red Sox players are always overvalued.

J.P. should not settle for anything other than the other teams top 2 prospects. Thus, it is doubtful that anything happens by the Friday deadline.

christaylor - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#203420) #
Off topic but Mark Buehrle is awesome... which obviously brings up good memories of Halladay/Buehrle match-ups in the past. Games played in two hours and change are also awesome.
RhyZa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#203422) #
I'm with Will.  Let them keep Happ.  I doubt he will be better than he is currently performing and we have no reason to weaken the Phillies for this year.

Give me

Drabek
Donald
Brown
Taylor
Marson

Who knows about prospects anyway.  Quantity over quality, especially when there isn't an A prospect  being discussed.  The more we get back, the more chance that at least 1 or 2 of them pan out.  To think that we must get a ready contributor like Happ in order to make us forget about trading the best pitcher in baseball is ludicrous.
christaylor - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#203423) #
There's something about Zep that reminds me of Jimmy Key -- anyone else with better memories of Key see the similarity as well?
christaylor - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#203424) #
There's something about Zep that reminds me of Jimmy Key -- anyone else with better memories of Key see the similarity as well?
timpinder - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#203425) #

Another report that says the Red Sox are making a very strong push for Halladay, offering Buchholz, the Jays' choice of Masterson/Bowden or Lars Anderson, plus lesser prospect(s):

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-tradebuzz072809&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Forget about not trading within the division, if the Jays could get Buchholz and Lowrie (they don't need Anderson and one pitcher back is enough), I'd do it.  With Matzuzaka and Wakefield out and the Yanks linked to Lee and Washburn, the Red Sox might just do it.

Newton - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#203426) #

Buchholz and Bowden were both sandwich picks in the same draft (2005 I believe)... Theo probably figures he can replace them if/when Doc tests free agency.

Wish we had the coin/moxy to draft the best available players regardless of potential cost. 

Any drone with an internet connection knows when/why certain guys are falling in a draft and can only watch helplessly as their favourite club passes on them. 

Boston can replenish top notch prospects every draft with their ability to spend.

Texas is the best fit for the Jays.  I'd offer to pick up Doc's salary for the rest of this year and go for 2 or 3 of their top guys (each of whom is a truly elite A grade prospect).

 

Newton - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#203427) #

Red Sox 2005 Entry Draft:

Ellsbury 23rd overall

C. Hansen 26th overall

C. Buchholz 42nd overall

J. Lowrie   45th overall

M. Bowden 47th overall

Now that is a draft.  I remember watching this stream on mlb.com at work and knowing the Jays were screwed based on the analysis readily available online at the time.

Money and Smarts is a tough combination to top.

 

RhyZa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#203428) #
Especially the money. 

Bill Simmons was discussing this in one of his podcasts.  How it really isn't that hard to manage a baseball team when money is no object.  Multi million dollar mistake with Renteria?  No problem.  How about Lugo?  Ah well, didn't work.  Next option.  Draft X player that teams are passing on due to $, sign foreign youngster  for high $.  Sure smarts help, but the unlimited budget is an amazing coverup for any mistake, and gives you the freedom to operate and swing for the fences like just about no other team can.
Sano - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#203429) #
Are people really serious about trading him to the Red Sox?  Can we at least pretend to care about contending?  You can't trade the best pitcher in baseball to your direct competitor. 

I say this knowing that in two years he'll probably end up in NY or Boston anyways, so it's somewhat moot.  And I also realize that you shouldn't rule out any trade partners out of principle, but still.  The deal better really really hurt the Red Sox.  Make them wince.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#203430) #
Random thoughts -

*obviously a lot of unreliable reports out there but, IMO, Buchholz + Anderson + Lowrie would trump anything the Phillies can put together

* Jason Stark had an atrticle about which GM was under more pressure but I think he highly overstates how much pressure JP is under to make a deal this week. On the other hand, his description about the whole city turning on Amaro if they don't pay up for Doc rings much more true.

* I think what we are seeing from JP right now (in spite of the inability to stop talking a few days ago) is a clear knowledge that there's a lot more at stake for the bidding teams than for him. Let Lee and Washburn come off the market and the remaining teams start considering what's at stake  and the offers can only get better. I think on Friday we'll get offers remarkably better than the ones coming in now - but they still might not be enough.

* I'm going to take a contrary position to the popular thinking that the Jays HAVe to get something more from Doc than the draft picks. If wedeal him before 2010, we'll get X - if we keep him we get 2 draft picks plus a legitamate shot at the post season next year (if all goes well). I suggest that the total value of the picks AND contention is worth so much that the value of X would have to bew quite high indeed.


timpinder - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#203432) #

I guess my thought is that Halladay can go to the Sox or Yanks after 2010 anyways, and if the Jays are trading away Halladay they'll likely go into full rebuild mode and won't be ready to contend until closer to 2014.  Halladay will be in his late 30's then and likely in decline.

Dead on about spending in the draft.  If the Jays don't hold true to their statements that they'll go out of slot and Paxton walks, well, I'll start cheering for whatever team Doc went to.  I'll follow my favourite player instead of the team that keeps letting its fans down.  In the AL East with a below average budget and without paying out of slot in the draft the odds of a playoff birth are quite low indeed, unless you want to finish in last place every year for the picks like the Rays.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#203434) #
Are people really serious about trading him to the Red Sox?  Can we at least pretend to care about contending?  You can't trade the best pitcher in baseball to your direct competitor. 

I say this knowing that in two years he'll probably end up in NY or Boston anyways, so it's somewhat moot.  And I also realize that you shouldn't rule out any trade partners out of principle, but still.  The deal better really really hurt the Red Sox.  Make them wince.


Wilner made a good point about this.

If you deal Doc you are conceding contention for the next two playoff runs anyway, so to not want the Red Sox to be better is pure emotion, not strategy.
(I admit to that emotion)

It is true that perhaps if you deal him to the Phillies that you give the Phillies a leg up on extending him...but in terms of making Boston better in '09 and '10 - it doesn't matter because we aren't assuming we have a chance if we deal him.

And if you assume he'll sign with a rival after '10 then that's not a function of the deal, as you said.

That said, I agree it needs to really be a high price to deal him to Boston, but that's just an attempt to gain a long range advantage at the expense of a rival when the chance presents itself.

Having said all that, I can tolerate him in Boston - but if we trade him to the Yankees I'm done. I can't bare the idea of Doc in pinstripes if they traded their whole farm for him.


I admit that's irrational emotion but I can't help it.

Sano - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#203435) #
I don't agree with your last point at all.  Two draft picks and the chance of a playoff run is not a good enough return.  Let's be honest, so many things have to break right for us to truly compete next year- Scutaro re-signing, Snider bouncing back, Wells/Rios doing better, our rookie pitchers pitching as well as they have this year, etc.  If you accept that argument it essentially comes down to two draft picks and another year of Doc compared to a bunch of more proven minor league talent and saved money we could possibly (not likely but possible) spend on other positions of need.  I'll take the latter thanks.
Sano - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#203437) #
Will wouldn't you agree that the 'ideal' situation would be a deal that still makes us somewhat competitive in our division- if we can get Doc out of the division and get major league ready talent back (i.e. Happ) that would be ideal.  I actually have some faith in the young starters we have already- they have not been the problem this year.  Trading Doc out of the division does make strategic sense, not strengthening your competitor (and no matter if we have 100 losses, they are still our direct competitor) makes good sense logically. 

Now the logical thing would be to see if we can come out of the equation in the positive, i.e. gaining more than we lost, or making the Sox lose more than they gain.  With Doc in that equation it's very difficult to make it work.

I just don't understand how people can say it's just emotion.  It's almost a testament to the pessimistic attitude and low expectations that someone would make that argument, it assumes we're out of it, so let's just get over it, succumb to the inevitable and trade him to Boston. 

Moe - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#203438) #
That depends on how much you value a playoff run and how likely it is. I would say an actual playoff run (say reaching the ALCS and not getting blown out there) is VERY valuable. That would mean that the young arms did their job and that Rios and Wells rebounded. Then you would be able to trade Rios (for payroll reasons) and maybe even resign Doc.  Unfortunately, that is all not very likely.
More likely is that the Jays are  contending in Sept but not make it. That is fun, but might not be enough to keep Roy and ultimately is not worth mortgaging the future for.  And the most likely outcome I have to agree with is that the Jays will not be in it in Sept and should have traded Roy. Now it all depends on the actual probabilities you attach to these events.

On the topic of trading him to Boston (or NYY), as I said above, I'm for it if that's the best package and the package would be good enough for the Phillies. The next 2 years don't matter in that case and afterwards he may or may not go to them anyways. And somehow I don't think he would like it there that much (especially NY) that he would resign.

And you never know, the prospects he bring could be the real deal and reaching the majors by then, the economy (and MLB revenue) rebounded and the Loonie around par and suddenly the Jays can get him back with ring on his finger. -- I would say that is about as likely as the Jays winning the WS next year with Roy, and almost as sweet.

Ron - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#203439) #
This just in, Ichiro is a good hitter. On a 0-2 count, he was able to hit a ball out of the strike zone to win the game. Despite being 35, I wouldn't rule out Ichiro getting 3000 hits Stateside. Has he done enough to be a Hall Of Famer?
Jays2010 - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#203440) #
As I'm sure everyone paying attention to this thread has seen, there was a report that there is internal debate over whether or not the Dodgers are willing to part with Billingsley for Halladay (presumably Kershaw is 'untouchable'). Billingsley's last outing certainly may push the Dodgers to the point of including him in a deal for Doc. Even if a whole lot more is not offered, I'll take it over a bunch of unknown's from the Phils. Maybe it could be expanded with Downs/Frasor, who knows. A rotation of Billingsley, Romero, Marcum, Cecil, Zep/Richmond stands a decent chance to be above average...not that it necessarily means anything for 2010 contention and I still think the Jays should go in full seller's mode and shore up the left side of the infield with some youth...but it could make the turnaround into being a perennial contender a little shorter, imo.
King Ryan - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#203441) #
So...anyone else getting tired of the walk-off loss?  That's got to be about 40 of them this month, yes?
Sano - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 02:49 AM EDT (#203442) #
It's pretty clear now that we need to try someone else at closer.  Downs, for whatever reason, is not cutting it right now and these repeated walk-off losses are killing any morale in the club/fan-base.  Give Accardo a shot, or Frasor, although he's been spotty in closer situations before IIRC.

Definite yes for Ichiro to the HOF for me.  An amazing player first with some ridiculous stats but also very important for bringing Japanese more into the spotlight.  Sort of Jackie Robinson-esque.

Sort of wonder why the Dodgers would want to give up Billingsley?  Just looking at his stats but he seems to be a young horse, 200 IP last year, on his way to similar numbers this year.  Good WHIP, what's the deal? I mean, I would take that deal and maybe ask if we can take Matt Kemp off their hands too while we're at it (someone mentioned he's in Torre's doghouse).  I also heard they're desperate for lefty relief?  Throw in Tallet and I'd say that's a pretty sweet deal.

TamRa - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 03:03 AM EDT (#203443) #
Then you would be able to trade Rios (for payroll reasons) and maybe even resign Doc.  Unfortunately, that is all not very likely.

Actually, from a projected 2010 payroll of $95ish (actually $105 with Ryan's money)  - a figure which assumes at least one of Tallet, Barajas, or Bautista is kept for next year and Scutaro is resigned for about $5 per -  no less than $40 million comes off the payroll at the end of 2010.

So, the wisdom of dealing Rios aside, the jays would not HAVE to deal anyone to clear enough payroll to re-sign Doc. Unless of course Rogers is gunning for a $60-70 million payroll in 2011 in which case signing Doc isn't even on the table.

More likely is that the Jays are  contending in Sept but not make it. That is fun, but might not be enough to keep Roy and ultimately is not worth mortgaging the future for

I just don't think it's "mortgaging the future" to take the picks instead of trading for prospects. That term tends to imply you are losing younger players for older ones. Maybe I'm the only one, but if it's my team and i have even a reasonable chance at contending in 2010 I roll the dice on that and if it comes July and I'm dead in the water, see what i can get....if I contend into September and finish 3 or 4 games out - i try to use that to prove to Doc he should stay and failing that, I take the picks with no regrets.

The combination of the good it would do for the franchise to "play meanignful September baseball" and the potential that doing so would give Doc the faith to return is, IMO, WELL worth the difference between - for instance - the Philly package and the two picks.

That's a gamble I would take. Now, of course, circumstances between now and next July could maybe make it obvious we can't get close and I'd have to talk trade again but again, the difference in what we can get this week and what we can get a year from now is a price I'd be willing to pay for the potential return.

I feel the same way about Rolen. YES selling him now is selling high and his arm might fall off a month from now. But the potential good he would do to a playoff run is worth losing the prospect you might get by trading him now.

The other tradeable guys we can afford to move (though if we trade Scoot I'll be real worried about who plays SS next year)

Jays2010 - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#203444) #

Sort of wonder why the Dodgers would want to give up Billingsley?  Just looking at his stats but he seems to be a young horse, 200 IP last year, on his way to similar numbers this year.  Good WHIP, what's the deal? I mean, I would take that deal and maybe ask if we can take Matt Kemp off their hands too while we're at it (someone mentioned he's in Torre's doghouse).  I also heard they're desperate for lefty relief?  Throw in Tallet and I'd say that's a pretty sweet deal.

If we want a real big deal: Billingsley, Kemp & Pierre for Halladay, Rios & Frasor.

Taking back Pierre offsets some of the Rios money. Actually, Kemp & Pierre will make more combined in 2010 & 2011 than Rios. So a swap of ultra-talented number 7 hitters...sure, Kemp is younger, but does he necessarily have higher upside than Rios? Probably not, though his actual production sure is a hell of a lot better (this year, at least).

Not that these types of deal ever happen, but seems like it puts the Dodgers in a much better spot for two playoff runs...

While we are at it:

1. Scutaro for Hardy + prospect (Brew gets 2009 upgrade, 2 draft picks and Escobar isn't blocked)

2. Downs for Brandon Wood

3. Rolen/Overbay/Tallet for prosects (well, don't know what Overbay can fetch...but meh)

2010 Blue Jays:

SP: Billingsley/Romero/Marcum/Richmond/Cecil/Zep ($6 mill for Billingsley/Marcum combined)

RP: Accardo/League/Janssen/Carlson/Camp/Castro/Purcey ($15 mill for RYAN, Accardo, League, Janssen & Camp)

Kemp ($4 mill), Wells, ($21 mill), Hardy ($5 mill), Hill ($4 mill), Barajas or other vet catcher ($2 mill) + Wood, Snider, Lind, Dopirak + 4 backups (i.e. Inglett/JMac/Chavez/someone cheaper than Bautista).

That is $57 million for 11 roster players (+BJ) and let's say $1 million a piece for respectable backups and ten 0-3 players at $400,000 a piece and BOOM...$65 million payroll and, in my opinion, a .500 team...not a complete laughing stock. And, hopefully, the Jays eat around half of Wells' contract and move him so in 2011 Moises Sierra can win ROY. The road to contention begins soon!

I forgot Pierre...presumably the Jays eat some of his salary and move him as well...somewhere in here that oughta be factored in...

TamRa - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 03:43 AM EDT (#203445) #
I don't agree with your last point at all.  Two draft picks and the chance of a playoff run is not a good enough return.  Let's be honest, so many things have to break right for us to truly compete next year- Scutaro re-signing, Snider bouncing back, Wells/Rios doing better, our rookie pitchers pitching as well as they have this year, etc.  If you accept that argument it essentially comes down to two draft picks and another year of Doc compared to a bunch of more proven minor league talent and saved money we could possibly (not likely but possible) spend on other positions of need.  I'll take the latter thanks.

Disclaimer: not trying to change your mind here - your's is a highly reasonable view...just discussing.

First, I'll quibble with "proven minor league talent" as a concept. Proving you can hit and pitch in the minors isn't at all proof you will be a difference maker in the majors. All of us can point to legions of "proven minor league talent" that never did anything of importance in the bigs.

My second quibble is the money - we, even if we decided to spend every nickle of Doc's 2010 salary, are VERY unlikely to get more value for that cash than the value we get paying it to him.

so in my mind, the model for comarison is this:

Package A-

1. A potential playoff run, and the attendent revenue generation and potential market revitalization that goes with it. Most importantly, a successful playoff run MIGHT convince Doc he can win in toronto which is what he most wants to do.
2. An opportunity to deal again next July if said run doesn't materialize, for a lesser package than this year but still not insubstantial (Think LaPorta) OR 2 draft picks

vs.

Package B

1. an impressive collection of young UNproven (as major leaguers) players now
2. Aprox. $20 million in saved cash which may or may not (likely won't) be plowed back into the payroll.

IF it were guaranteed that the $20 million would go back into the team, that would make B more attractive, but even at that you have to look at the winter's free agent crop for the Jays positions of potential need (or those players which might be traded for salary reasons) and when I look at that list, I do not see any combination of players that makes a Halladay level impact.
Another aspect of this part of the comparison is the interensic vale of the teams market possition and therefore revenue stream if they make a legitimate run. I'm no economist but I suspect it's easy to image that gain being worth more than $20 million in revenues overall.

to say nothing of the fact that a legit playoff run might very well be what convinces Doc to re-sing which is the ultimate prize, IMO.

Turning to the value of the players themselves - if you took the package we reportedly asked the Phillies for as your best option (since we asked for it) let's take a look at that:

Happ - a decent little mid-to-back of the rotation LHP who's already 26 years old. Yet we have in hand, without Doc, the following pitchers who are major league starters or who may very well be major league ready in 2010 and the following few years:
Marcum
McGowan
Romero
Listch
Cecil
Richmond
Rzep
Mills
Purcey
Ray
So I have to ask - where does Happ fit into that log jam? Is he the ace who will lead them? Is he the dependable horse? or is he just another pretty good guy? And that's beside the fact that in order to get these guys you are subtracting Doc's contributions to the team which has on-field value so great it might take Happ years to match it.

Brown - Playing in the FSL right now, and playing well. But not going to be a force in the majors until...2012? later?

Drabek - at AA and pitching well. Much like Carlos Carrasco was playing well until he hit AAA this year. And Carrasco is younger. Respected player evaluators like KLaw think Drabek is not any great shakes. If he's a #2,3 guy, that's cool...but when? 2011? 2012? A lot can happen between now and then.

That's no disrespect to Drabek - i like him, would love to have him - but a year ago all of us would have loved to have acquired Carrasco (who might yet turn out to be the better pitcher of the two) so nothing is proven.

Thes "anythng can happen" stipulations apply likewise to the draft choices in package A, to be sure. Or to the "LaPorta package" we would presumably have offered next July. But that's the point. The only real difference in the two is you gain a couple of years in terms of the time in which the young player reaches the majors (if you take the draft picks) or you gain maybe one B and one C extra players now as opposed to next year.

Put it another way, if there was an identical guy to LaPorta in terms or projectability offered to us next year in a deal just like the one made for CC....would I regret having THAT guy instead of the guys being offered to us (as far as we know) so far?

Heck no. Playoff run v. money aside, If I could have LaPorta alone right now or have the guys we ask Phily for, I'd probably take LaPorta.

So I'm not worried we'll get less next July based o9n what I have read so far this July. Now, if there was a REAL chance we could get, for instance, Kershaw and Kemp...Or Buchholz+Bard+Anderson or some such this year...then yeah, I could see myself regretting passing that up.

but not the offers I've been reading about (the ones that were not later denied).

so on players alone, I'm not convinced there is much difference in value between the "LaPorta" deal next July, or the draft picks, and the value we'd get in the three players we ask the Phillies for. Some difference, yes, but not remotely a convincing difference.

IMO

Taking both parts of the potential alternatives into consideration, for me it's an easy choice to stick with Doc IF i believe I have a REASONABLE chance of making a run next year.

Of course, without knowing the internals of the team (like whether the 2010 budget will allow the core of this team to return or not) i can't say, as an outsider, what SHOULS be doen - there are a lot of variables that we as fans simply can't know.



Anders - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 04:10 AM EDT (#203446) #
Just on a general note, Matt Kemp might be/is more "valuable" than Roy Halladay straight up, as he is a young, good hitting, great fielding CF entering arbitration. It seems unlikely that he will get traded, and it is a complete impossibility that he and Chad Billingsley (who's "value" is probably not that far from even with Halladay's, either higher or lower) will get traded to the Jays for any sort of combination of players.

Just, you know, noting.
mathesond - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 07:36 AM EDT (#203448) #
Oh please, Anders, next I suppose you'll be saying there no way St. Louis gives up Pujols and Wainwright for Doc.

Party pooper.
RhyZa - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#203449) #
For the record, I question how good some of these Sox prospects truly are.   
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#203450) #
Sano, I love Ichiro too, but calling him "Jackie Robinson-esque" seems blissfully unaware of Robinson's legacy.  I don't recall anyone intentionally spiking Ichiro, or any fans / players hurling racial abuse at him.  I could be forgetting something, but I don't recall any incidents of racism at all against the modern wave of Japanese comign to play MLB.

All this trade talk is depressing me.  Anyone else notice that Mark Buehrle's gone completely insane?  The poor mans Roy Halladay without the power arm. 

Jim - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#203451) #

2. Downs for Brandon Wood

The Angels won't trade Wood/Aybar and Saunders for Halladay.  They wouldn't make this trade in 2000 years.  Nor would Milwaukee trade Hardy for Scutaro, they certainly wouldn't include a prospect. 

Downs is killing the Blue Jays right now.  The mouting walk off losses and his trade value dropping at the same time.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#203452) #
the real difference is that out of nowhere, the Rays received MVP seasons from 28 year old Benjamin Zobrist and 29 year old Jason Q. Bartlett
perlhack - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#203453) #
A Toronto Star article quotes Tony Viner, president of Rogers Media: "our actual revenue per ticket has risen sharply this year...We're going to beat our budget and that's with the existing player payroll. That's with the combination of reducing expenses, especially on the business side, and getting more revenue in." The Star noted the payroll reduction from $95 million to $81 million or so.

There are other interesting tidbits there, including that a Beeston replacement is on the horizon: "Seriously, we are quite close to identifying a successor to Paul, he's been quite active on that file, and there are some things that should probably be left to Paul's successor."

Of course, it could all be corporate posturing.





uglyone - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#203455) #
Newton - Tuesday, July 28 2009 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#203427) #

Red Sox 2005 Entry Draft:

Ellsbury 23rd overall

C. Hansen 26th overall

C. Buchholz 42nd overall

J. Lowrie   45th overall

M. Bowden 47th overall

Now that is a draft.  I remember watching this stream on mlb.com at work and knowing the Jays were screwed based on the analysis readily available online at the time.

Money and Smarts is a tough combination to top.

 

 

Really?

  1. J.Ellsbury (25): 1037ab, 17hr, .755ops
  2. C.Buchholz (24): 114.0ip, 8.3k/9, 5.29era
  3. M.Bowden (22): 7.0ip, 6.4k/9, 2.57era
  4. J.Lowrie (25): 297ab, 3hr, .696ops
  5. C.Hansen (25):  93.2ip, 6.7k/9, 6.34era

Now that is an OVERRATED draft, if I've ever seen one.

The Jays had only one top-50 pick in that draft, compared to the Sox' 5, and he's done better at the MLB level than any of those Sox guys:

  1. R.Romero (24):  102.2ip, 7.2k/9, 3.59era

The Jays 2004 draft looks as good as that Sox 2005 draft:

  1. A.Lind (25): 1057ab, 42hr, .803ops
  2. J.Litsch (24): 296.0ip, 4.8k/9, 3.83era
  3. C.Janssen (27): 192.2ip, 4.4k/9, 4.20era
  4. Z.Jackson (26): 105.1ip, 5.4k/9, 5.81era
  5. D.Purcey (27): 90.2ip, 8.3k/9, 5.96era

Hell, the Jays are starting to get more from their 2007 draft than the Sox got from that 2005 draft:

  1. B.Cecil (22): 59.0ip, 7.5k/9, 4.29era
  2. M.Rzepczynski (23): 27.2ip, 9.8k/9, 3.25era
  3. B.Mills (24): 7.2ip, 10.6k/9, 14.09era

 

timpinder - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#203457) #

Carlos Carrasco was scratched from his scheduled to start today, and Jason Donald and Lou Marson are both out of the lineup as well.  However, sources are reporting that a trade with Indians for Lee is the reason, not a trade for Halladay:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Carrasco_scratched.html

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#203459) #
Personally, I can't imagine that last night's outing affected Downs' trade value in the least.  A bunt single leads to a bases-loaded, no out situation in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game and Downs would have gotten out of it save for a piece of hitting by Suzuki on a 0-2 count that very few could have emulated (Carew for sure, Vlad, Yogi and a few others maybe). 
Jim - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#203465) #

10 days ago Downs' ERA stood at 1.84.  Since:

7/21 Cle - Blown Save & Loss (error of course hurt him)

7/24 Tampa -  Loss

7/25 Tampa - Blown Save

7/27 Seattle - Clean Inning with 7 run lead

7/28 Seattle - Loss

2 blown saves, 3 losses and now sports a 3.18 ERA.  At the very least you wonder if he's healthy and do you want to trade for him if he isn't?

Thomas - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#203470) #
The Angels won't trade Wood/Aybar and Saunders for Halladay.

If that is true, and I haven't seen that reported, I don't understand that. They have no use for Wood and I think they'd be foolish to turn down 3.5 years of Saunders for 1.5 years of Halladay given where they are in the standings. I would be disappointed if that was the return on a Halladay trade.

If the reason for those moves is that those three players have been dealt for Lee then I don't see Halladay getting moved before the deadline. I'm not sure he'll wind up with the Phillies, but I don't see the Jays being able to receive the necessary price without the Phillies involved.

Thomas - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#203471) #
The first trade of the Deadline Bonanza (which officially begins on July 28) has been completed.

The Pirates sent Jack Wilson and Ian Snell to Seattle for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno and a trio of prospects (Aaron Pribanic, Nathan Adcock and Brett Lorin).

Influence on the Halladay possibilities: Zero.
Moe - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#203472) #
The only real difference in the two is you gain a couple of years in terms of the time in which the young player reaches the majors (if you take the draft picks) or you gain maybe one B and one C extra players now as opposed to next year.

While I of course agree that you should keep Roy if you think you have a reasonable chance of playing significant baseball in Sept and maybe even October, I disagree on the value of receiving 4 prospects today.

If Roy leaves as a FA the Jays get 2 picks: one supplemental (in the 30th-40th pick range) and one that could be as high as 16th and as low as ~50th depending on the team that signs him and the other FAs that team signs. Lets assume one of the better cases and say the Jays get the 23rd and 35th pick (that would be a good, but not unlikely outcome). Given the Jays draft strategy and success in the past, the expected value of these 2 picks is one player who makes it to the majors and provides reasonable value, but not an All-Star.

Now getting one of those rumored 4 player packages is expected to lead to about 2.5 players making it, and at least one of them providing more than average/reasonable value. The difference is not just the number (4 vs. 2) and the fact that they arrive earlier, but also reduced uncertainty because they are older and have (much) more experience. If you pick the 4 players as well as you draft, you can expect about 3 times as much value than from the picks (I'm sure someone with more proficiency in these calculations can give you more precise numbers).

So, how much do you value 1 more year of Roy? If you think you can make it, I'm all for it! But it needs to be more than just a 5% chance of all stars aligning perfectly -- especially considering that the Jays rely on cheap talent making an a significant contribution. 


RhyZa - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#203473) #
Some may choose to hate on JP if that Lee deal goes through, but if anything it reaffirms that I'm happy that he didn't accept the pu pu platter than Cleveland would be receiving.
Moe - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#203477) #
Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco (+cash?)
for
Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson???

Unless Knapp really develops nicely, this is great for the Phillies. Of course Lee is no Halladay and the Indians have an even smaller chance of contending next year than the Jays, but still they should have gotten more.
Sister - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#203481) #
Eeek,

The reported package for Lee is very underwhelming. If this is what the reigning AL Cy Young winner fetches I can understand JP's reluctance to take back 80 cents on the dollar. Just terrible.

ayjackson - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#203484) #
Knapp (sore shoulder) and the rest (poor results) are all at the bottom of their value....but apparently they're good enough for the Indians.
lexomatic - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#203486) #
glad to not be getting that package.
hopefully texas will decide they have to do something to counterract seattle's big trade.
a recent bp post shows them being one of the teams that would benefit most... going form 37% to 59% chance of getting to the playoffs
Jim - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#203487) #

If that is true, and I haven't seen that reported, I don't understand that. They have no use for Wood and I think they'd be foolish to turn down 3.5 years of Saunders for 1.5 years of Halladay given where they are in the standings. I would be disappointed if that was the return on a Halladay trade.

I totally agree with you, but I've seen a few places that the Angels turned that down.  I'm pretty sure we talked about it here at some point the last few days. 

They seem to love Aybar.  I think that is the problem on their end, not Saunders or Wood.

RhyZa - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#203490) #
Carrasco - mid rotation at best
Donald - good glove, poor bat, utility type
Marson - some potential but likely decent at best, not spectacular
Knapp - good stuff, possible highest ceiling in deal but injury concerns

No Taylor or Brown is a shocker to me.  Yup, glad we weren't involved in this.

Now, it's time to wait for a call from the Dodgers.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#203500) #
I've been having nightmares about JP accepting an offer from the Phillies. Hopefully they'll end now.
Jays2010 - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#203506) #

2. Downs for Brandon Wood

The Angels won't trade Wood/Aybar and Saunders for Halladay.  They wouldn't make this trade in 2000 years.

The Angels have been linked to Sherril and Downs and supposedly the asking price for Sherril is Wood and another prospect. So Wood for Downs seems to make sense. Downs has a good chance at Type A status (or at least he was looking that way until a week ago) and if you look at the numbers the last few years (other than saves), Downs compares quite favourably to Sherill. The question is how much do the Angels value saves? Sherill also has an extra year before free agency, which is why Wood by himself for Downs seems reasonable. I guess it all depends on how the Angels value Wood. It's hard to tell...since they seem relunctant to trade him or play him...

Ditto to everyone on that terrible package the Indians received for Lee. If Brown or Taylor were included then fine...I suppose. But that is the kind of package I'd expect (more or less) for Doc at next year's deadline and 1.5 years of Lee is worth more than half a year of Doc...isn't it? Heck, the Matt Holliday deal was better for the A's which is pretty ridiculous (at least they received one true blue chipper in the high minors), IMO.

Jim - Wednesday, July 29 2009 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#203513) #

The Angels have been linked to Sherril and Downs and supposedly the asking price for Sherril is Wood and another prospect. So Wood for Downs seems to make sense. Downs has a good chance at Type A status (or at least he was looking that way until a week ago) and if you look at the numbers the last few years (other than saves), Downs compares quite favourably to Sherill.

The asking price on Sherill has nothing to do with what they can get for Downs.  There is no way that the Angels are trading Wood + for Sherill.  Baltimore has been asking for a ton for Sherill forever and that is why he's still in Baltimore. The Angels are bizarre with Wood.   They won't play him and they won't trade him. 

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