What's the difference between these two teams anyway?
Everybody's got an opinion. I, however, have the Truth.
The difference between these two teams is 38 runs of offense. Over 99 games. That is all.
There's simply nothing to choose from between the two pitching staffs. Despite their much-lamented procession of injuries, the Blue Jays have allowed just 441 runs this season - that's 2 runs less than Tampa. Only Boston in the division has given up fewer. The 2009 Jays have the fifth best ERA in the league, four rookies in the rotation and all. The starters have pitched to a 4.26 ERA, fifth best in the league and the best in the division. Boston is next, with a 4.46 ERA from their starters. The Rays' starters have a 4.65 ERA.
That's right - the 2009 Blue Jays have had the best starting pitching in the AL East. Obviously, Roy Halladay has a lot to do with that. A lot. But 80 of those games were started by other guys, and 48 of them were started by rookies.
The bullpen has not been as impressive. As we all know, they've lost two of last season's key contributors (Ryan and Tallet) while two others (Carlson and League) have been wildly inconsistent. But even so, the pen has hardly been bad - they rank sixth in the AL with a 3.93 ERA. They're obviously behind the truly outstanding pens in Boston (3.15) and Tampa (3.37), but they're still better than average. What has been disturbing, however, has been the tendency of the Toronto relievers to... well, to lose the damn game. The Jays relievers have picked up just 10 wins while losing 20 games. No relief corps has lost more often, and only Kansas City's relievers have scooped up fewer wins.
But on the whole, the difference between Toronto and Tampa isn't on the pitcher's mound. And anyway, you have to figure it's easier to find a useful relief pitcher than an effective starter. So let's look at the bats.
And here we go. Tampa has outscored Toronto by 38 runs. The Blue Jays have scored 478 runs (4.83 per game), which is not bad. It's a wee bit better than the league average, in fact. It's significantly better than Baltimore, almost as good as Boston. But Tampa and New York both have a really good offense. The Rays have scored 516 runs (5.21 per game). That's third best in the league, behind the Angels (a fluke, shurely?) and the Yankees (playing half their games in Coors East - the Bombers have hit 91 HRs at home, 55 on the road.)
So let's go round the division by position and see where these extra runs are coming from.
The Blue Jays don't get much offense from their catchers, but Tampa gets even less. Minnesota (natch!) is the only team that actually gets a lot of offense from behind the plate. Jays ahead by 9 runs created.
To summarize:
Everybody's got an opinion. I, however, have the Truth.
The difference between these two teams is 38 runs of offense. Over 99 games. That is all.
There's simply nothing to choose from between the two pitching staffs. Despite their much-lamented procession of injuries, the Blue Jays have allowed just 441 runs this season - that's 2 runs less than Tampa. Only Boston in the division has given up fewer. The 2009 Jays have the fifth best ERA in the league, four rookies in the rotation and all. The starters have pitched to a 4.26 ERA, fifth best in the league and the best in the division. Boston is next, with a 4.46 ERA from their starters. The Rays' starters have a 4.65 ERA.
That's right - the 2009 Blue Jays have had the best starting pitching in the AL East. Obviously, Roy Halladay has a lot to do with that. A lot. But 80 of those games were started by other guys, and 48 of them were started by rookies.
The bullpen has not been as impressive. As we all know, they've lost two of last season's key contributors (Ryan and Tallet) while two others (Carlson and League) have been wildly inconsistent. But even so, the pen has hardly been bad - they rank sixth in the AL with a 3.93 ERA. They're obviously behind the truly outstanding pens in Boston (3.15) and Tampa (3.37), but they're still better than average. What has been disturbing, however, has been the tendency of the Toronto relievers to... well, to lose the damn game. The Jays relievers have picked up just 10 wins while losing 20 games. No relief corps has lost more often, and only Kansas City's relievers have scooped up fewer wins.
But on the whole, the difference between Toronto and Tampa isn't on the pitcher's mound. And anyway, you have to figure it's easier to find a useful relief pitcher than an effective starter. So let's look at the bats.
And here we go. Tampa has outscored Toronto by 38 runs. The Blue Jays have scored 478 runs (4.83 per game), which is not bad. It's a wee bit better than the league average, in fact. It's significantly better than Baltimore, almost as good as Boston. But Tampa and New York both have a really good offense. The Rays have scored 516 runs (5.21 per game). That's third best in the league, behind the Angels (a fluke, shurely?) and the Yankees (playing half their games in Coors East - the Bombers have hit 91 HRs at home, 55 on the road.)
So let's go round the division by position and see where these extra runs are coming from.
CATCHER GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
NY Yankees 98 356 48 98 21 0 14 58 29 72 1 2 5 4 4 9 .275 .333 .452 .786 52
Boston 97 335 49 76 27 0 14 49 48 77 0 0 0 6 3 4 .227 .324 .433 .757 50
Baltimore 97 333 33 83 17 2 8 24 38 61 0 0 0 0 3 8 .249 .332 .384 .716 42
Toronto 99 375 32 90 18 0 10 54 14 61 1 0 5 5 1 4 .240 .266 .368 .634 37
Tampa Bay 99 360 38 82 16 0 7 37 12 48 4 2 7 2 4 12 .228 .259 .331 .590 28
The Blue Jays don't get much offense from their catchers, but Tampa gets even less. Minnesota (natch!) is the only team that actually gets a lot of offense from behind the plate. Jays ahead by 9 runs created.
The Yankees are the class of the division here, and they've got the cancelled cheques to prove it. Morneau in Minnesota has a slight edge over Teixeira league-wide. I think we're in the habit of assuming that Tampa enjoys a large edge over Toronto at first base, and it's possible that we're somewhat bitter about it. After all, they scooped Carlos Pena off the scrap heap after Texas, Oakland, Detroit, Boston, and New York had all decided they could get along quite nicely without him. Hey - when you're running together more consecutive 90 loss seasons than any team in the history of the American League, you can afford to take a flyer on a guy from time to time. It's not like you have any serious hopes or anything. But Tampa's edge over Toronto isn't that impressive. Pena plays very good defense and hits a lot of home runs, but he doesn't do very much else at all. Overbay gets on base more often, and between his additional singles and doubles makes up for much of the gap in slugging. As a bonus, Kevin Millar has hit very well when he's in the lineup at first base (.306/.364/.472). Pena's biggest advantage might actually be that he strikes out so often that he practically never hits into a double play. Jays still ahead, by the way, by 4 runs created.
FIRST BASE GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
NY Yankees 98 386 66 109 27 1 26 74 57 67 1 0 0 2 7 8 .282 .383 .560 .942 84
Boston 97 348 63 100 22 2 18 63 55 87 5 0 0 3 10 11 .287 .397 .517 .914 73
Tampa Bay 99 361 66 81 21 2 25 65 65 130 2 1 0 2 7 2 .224 .352 .501 .853 69
Toronto 99 357 50 98 31 1 12 64 58 64 0 0 0 3 0 9 .275 .373 .468 .841 64
Baltimore 97 382 41 99 21 0 10 52 32 58 0 5 0 5 2 15 .259 .316 .393 .709 43
Aaron Hill has been the most productive second baseman in the league this year. And his edge over Zobrist/Iwamura turns out to be almost exactly equivalent to Pena's edge over Overbay/Millar. This position is loaded, is it not? Jays stretch their lead over to Tampa to 8 runs created.
2ND BASE GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
Toronto 99 433 58 127 18 0 25 68 24 65 4 1 1 3 3 13 .293 .333 .508 .841 69
Boston 97 395 72 122 32 1 5 44 45 30 14 5 1 2 3 13 .309 .382 .433 .815 65
Baltimore 97 397 75 112 35 1 8 46 47 67 20 5 1 6 0 6 .282 .353 .436 .789 64
Tampa Bay 99 361 54 102 17 3 10 46 55 74 14 3 1 3 2 4 .283 .378 .429 .807 64
NY Yankees 98 400 67 123 27 1 14 54 19 33 4 4 0 2 2 13 .308 .340 .485 .825 60
Edge for Tampa, as Longoria is the most productive third baseman in the league. But Scott Rolen has certainly held his own. Longoria has a big edge in power, but undoes many of his good works by hitting into lots and lots of double plays. And is it not weird to see the Yankees in the middle of the pack. Longoria cuts Toronto's edge to 3 runs created.
3RD BASE GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
Tampa Bay 99 383 63 108 29 1 22 82 48 88 2 0 0 6 5 16 .282 .364 .535 .900 72
Toronto 99 384 60 118 30 0 9 42 36 54 5 2 1 3 4 3 .307 .370 .456 .826 67
NY Yankees 98 344 51 77 18 1 16 59 55 78 7 0 2 1 6 12 .224 .340 .422 .761 50
Boston 97 387 48 103 27 2 15 56 27 62 1 2 0 1 3 17 .266 .318 .463 .781 50
Baltimore 97 369 35 95 14 0 7 39 27 40 3 4 1 2 3 8 .257 .312 .352 .664 39
Marco Scutaro has been a pleasant and delightful surprise to most of us, although I seem to remember one scout saying it's because the PEDs are washing out of the league, and the guys who could always play are... playing. But Jason Bartlett? Come on - he's a good player but .337? A guy who's hit 11 HRs in more than 1500 major league at bats coming into 2009 is slugging .516? This is Pena and Zobrist all over again. Is it possible that they're doing something with the bats down there? Bartlett has been the best hitting shortstop in the league ths year, ahead of Jeter and Scutaro. He puts Tampa ahead by 8 runs created as we head for the outfield.
SHORTSTOP GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
Tampa Bay 99 360 62 122 30 5 10 48 30 69 22 4 2 3 2 3 .339 .390 .533 .923 78
NY Yankees 98 413 64 130 21 1 11 46 46 61 18 5 1 0 3 9 .315 .387 .450 .838 73
Toronto 99 404 71 116 30 1 8 46 61 48 8 4 5 4 2 10 .287 .380 .426 .806 67
Boston 97 339 39 78 21 0 6 39 28 77 4 4 1 4 8 6 .230 .301 .345 .646 35
Baltimore 97 326 36 81 12 1 2 23 13 47 11 3 2 2 2 11 .248 .280 .310 .590 26
Carl Crawford is a wonderful player having a fine season. This is the third position in a row where a Devil Fishie has been the best hitter in the league at his position. As for the home team, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista have both been pretty good for Toronto in LF - the problem is in the 135 ABs soaked up by Snider, Inglett, Dellucci, and Adams - that quartet hit .185 (25-135) with 3 HR and 13 RBI. Snider was the only one who did anything at all. Big edge for Tampa, and they stretch their advantage to 26 runs created.
LEFT FIELD GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
Tampa Bay 99 405 67 126 17 3 12 50 39 66 46 9 0 2 4 5 .311 .376 .457 .832 75
NY Yankees 98 401 73 110 27 2 18 61 47 67 8 0 1 1 1 8 .274 .351 .486 .837 70
Boston 97 348 60 88 22 2 20 73 65 96 11 2 0 3 5 7 .253 .375 .500 .875 70
Toronto 99 352 47 93 24 1 15 42 40 82 4 0 5 0 4 8 .264 .346 .466 .812 57
Baltimore 97 346 38 85 16 0 13 40 44 79 5 2 0 1 2 6 .246 .333 .405 .738 48
I thought this would be worse - as you may or may not have noticed, Vernon Wells is not having a banner year. (And once again, Alex Rios is not hitting a lick when he lines up in CF). But neither is B.J. Upton, and the Rays' edge here is pretty minimal. The Orioles, so spectacularly bad elsewhere, are the class of the division - Granderson in Detroit has been the best in the league. Tampa stretches its edge over Toronto to 30 runs created.
CF GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
Baltimore 96 397 65 118 19 4 15 58 27 83 8 5 1 2 6 7 .297 .350 .479 .828 65
NY Yankees 97 345 55 98 12 6 8 43 39 57 18 6 8 4 2 5 .284 .353 .423 .776 55
Boston 96 394 52 114 16 3 6 37 25 49 44 8 3 3 4 9 .289 .336 .391 .727 54
Tampa Bay 98 407 64 99 27 2 10 40 36 74 15 8 6 3 6 2 .243 .325 .393 .718 52
Toronto 98 404 57 103 24 2 10 41 33 61 14 2 0 5 0 13 .255 .308 .399 .706 48
See the previous position. Suzuki in Seattle has been the class of the league, while Nick Markakis has given the Orioles the best production in the division. As some have observed, Alex Rios is not having the year of his life, and Tampa's Gross-Zobrist-Kapler combo gives them a small edge, enough to stretch their advantage over Toronto to 34 runs created.
RF GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
Baltimore 97 396 61 118 30 1 12 66 33 65 3 1 0 7 3 9 .298 .351 .470 .820 65
Boston 97 357 62 92 19 4 17 49 56 92 2 2 0 2 3 7 .258 .361 .476 .837 63
NY Yankees 98 349 55 88 22 0 17 56 61 81 2 1 2 5 5 10 .252 .367 .461 .828 61
Tampa Bay 99 331 45 89 27 2 10 53 47 68 11 5 0 2 0 3 .269 .358 .453 .811 56
Toronto 99 399 49 104 24 2 12 53 30 64 17 3 0 3 6 14 .261 .320 .421 .741 52
Ouch. I didn't see that coming either. Adam Lind is the closest thing to a full-time DH in the whole American League - he leads AL hitters in plate appearances as a DH - and Lind has been very, very good. But even so, Lind has played 62 games as a DH and the guys who have filled in when he's been in LF have been, without exception, awful. In those 28 games, Toronto DHs not named Adam Lind have hit .147 (15-102 ) with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs. Might as well let the pitcher hit. This has mostly been Kevin Millar (8-62), of course, but the occasional fill-ins have been just as horrible. Aaron Hill is 0-9 as a DH. Wells is 1-6. Dellucci went 1-7. Snider and Bautista are both 0-3. In fact, Lind, Millar, and Russ Adams - Russ Adams! - are the only Blue Jays with more than one hit as a DH. The White Sox, who have the good fortune to employ Jim Thome, have received the best productionfrom the DH position. As for Tampa, Pat Burrell has been pretty awful but Willy Aybar has been sensational when used as a DH, and he's more than made up for it. It pads their edge over Toronto to 38 runs created... and great gosh almighty! That's where we came in.
DH GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS RC
NY Yankees 89 325 52 85 19 2 19 57 52 62 3 1 0 3 3 6 .262 .366 .508 .873 62
Baltimore 88 329 48 92 18 1 20 62 36 61 1 1 0 0 2 6 .280 .354 .523 .877 60
Tampa Bay 89 320 45 79 15 0 11 56 53 77 2 0 0 4 3 7 .247 .355 .397 .752 48
Boston 88 330 41 75 21 2 11 51 44 86 0 2 0 5 5 5 .227 .323 .403 .726 45
Toronto 90 350 49 86 24 0 12 48 35 65 2 1 1 0 1 12 .246 .316 .417 .733 44
To summarize:
C TOR + 9Tampa has an edge at seven of the nine spots in the lineup. In five of those cases, it's a small edge. Of course, when you're running the table, small edges add up. From small things, baby, big things someday come. But it's still noteworthy that almost half of the gap between the two offenses comes from one position on the diamond.
1b TBR + 5
2b TOR + 5
3b TBR + 5
SS TBR + 11
LF TBR + 18
CF TBR + 4
RF TBR + 4
DH TBR + 4
