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Alex Anthopoulos has completed his due diligence with the players, coaches, other GM and agents and he held a conference call today to answer questions about his plans.  The conference call can be heard here.  The call is 35 minutes long.

Here are my notes from the call:

No specific payroll, it will be what it needs to be.  There are no contraints but the club needs a model for success and then the fans will come out.  Club drew 4 million fans year ago and could do it again.  When the team starts winning the fans will come out.

Club needs a sustained model for success.  Club needs to win based on strong player development and strong scouting.

Right now we have some of the pieces in the system but not all of the pieces.  There has been an 88 win team and an 87 win Blue Jay team since the world series wins.  In the AL East you need 95 wins to make the playoffs.

We need to be a great team to get to the 95 win mark.

Need to continue to add good young core players to the team.  Free agency helps with pieces to get you over the top but you need a core that you can't get from free agency.

There is only a 4% to 7% chance to get from 75 wins to 95 wins.  If the Jays tried to do that they could end up with a lot of overpriced, longer length contracts that they would regret later on.  the Jays need to be sure they have that core before adding the high value contracts.

The Jays have tried to hire the best scouting and player development people and teams have promoted and given raises to their employees to avoid having them jump to the Jays.

With respect to Roy Halladay, there are several players who he would be reluctant to trade but he has to look at anything on any player to make the team better.  They want Halladay to be here long term but he won't rule out any trade for any player.

They are looking to be as competitive as they can as soon as they can but they need to add to the core for sustained success, they will not jeopardise the long term goal of sustained success.

Halladay wants to win and unless the Jays can demonstrate that to him they will not offer him an extention, Roy will wait to see what happens in 2010 before deciding to resign.

Alex is not currently shopping any of his players.  More clubs than not are limited by payroll constraints so signings will be limited in the off-season.

He has been aware of the availability of every player who has been traded this off-season and he has had very good talks with other GM's.  He has spoken with 28 of 30 GM's, everyone except the Phillies and the Yankees.  They have targetted a list of players to acquire.

They have a better probability of hiring the best scouts than signing the best players.  They are going to reorganize pro scouting to try and be inovative.  The Jays should end up with one of the biggest scouting staffs in baseball.

They will be a little more proactive in signing latin players.  He wants to have more meetings with the scouts, evaluating what they have done right or wrong.

They are more interested in trades than free agency.  In free agency you have to pay what the market will pay so the teams that is willing to enter into a longer contract than they want or pay more than they want will get the player.

Won't be looking for any quick fixes. 

Right now there are no plans to move Aaron Hill off second or move Adam Lind to first.  If trades happen that could happen.  He doesn't see Hill moving back to shortstop.

Almost every opposing GM has asked about the young starters, if there is a deal out there that makes sense he will listen to them.

While they want to bring back the three free agents they will have to evaluate the contract they want and see if it makes sense.

There is no plan for X number of years.  You don't know when the young players will break out.

He characterises what he is doing as building, not rebuilding.  There is nothing to be torn down.  They have good young players just not enough of them.  They are not going to trade a young player for a player with one year left on his contract. 

The Jays need to improve in position players, they have done  agreat job on the mound.  Hill, Lind, Snider are good but they need more young players.  That is the number one area to improve upon.

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I like this approach.  It is the sensible way to go.  Unfortunately it is a similar approach that most other teams have so success will come down to execution.  It was interesting to hear how the Jays have been actively trying to hire scouts and player development people from other teams, I think that is more innovative and a good way to go.

The Jays will probably not contend for a couple of years as they build "the core", Halladay could be moved if the right deal comes along but he won't automatically be moved.  The Jays will not be big players in this winters free agent market.  Although AA didn;t say it I got the impression that he would like the two picks the team would get if Scutaro signed elsewhere, anyone else get that?

It does sound as though he has been very busy with the trade talk and who knows what will come of that.

I will add links to the scribes stories as they come out over the next 12-24 hours.

Jeremy Sandler, National Post: Halladay trade likely as the Jays look to rebuild

Shi Davidi, Canadian Press:  Anthopoulos looking to make Blue Jays a sustained winner, won't take shortcuts

Jordan Bastian, bluejays dot com:  Anthopoulos discusses direction of Jays.  GM hoping to build a team that contends annually

Shi Davidi, Globe and Mail:  Anthopoulos lays out his plan

Alex Anthopoulos Lays Out His Vision | 92 comments | Create New Account
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Jays2010 - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 04:56 PM EST (#208160) #

I have not yet listened to the interview...but based on these notes at least he is saying the right stuff. Based on the comments, it seems like he might be willing to trade young pitching which, for me, is a welcome change from JP's modus operandi. In the right trade, I'd love to see the Jays move a young pitcher for a positional player (i.e. Romero+ for Carlos Gonzalez or Cecil for Andy Laroche). I hope the Jays target teams that are not maximizing their assets (i.e. using CarGo in a corner OF spot due to Fowler or Laroche just keeping 3B warm for the Pirates until Alvarez is ready) and use pitching to acquire positional players.

I'm on board for the Snyder/Overbay swap and I'm guessing the Jays will quietly shop Halladay in the offseason but only move him in the right trade or wait until the deadline. Once upon a time I wanted the Jays to load up for 2010...but since that no longer seems feasible, I'd rather they fill some of their critical positions through trade (with Halladay being the biggest asset) and keep the possibility alive that Doc will sign with the Jays as a free agent in 2011. I have to believe there is a better chance of Doc being a Jay in 2011 if their is a base of players to win with...if it means he doesn't pitch for the Jays in 2010 then so be it.

Ron - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 05:34 PM EST (#208165) #
I listened to the whole conference call and his main points (build through scouting/player development/draft, not go for quick fixes, ownership is committed) is the same song and dance we heard when JP took over. Now to be fair to AA, I expected him to say those things. Heís certainly not going to come out and say we have no chance in hell of making the playoffs next season so donít buy season tickets. On the positive side, he did say the Jays will have one of the largest professional and amateur scouting departments out there and there will be great emphasis on Latin America.

Based on what has gone on, words mean very little to me. As a paying customer, Iíve been lied to and mislead so I no longer give them (management and ownership) the benefit of the doubt. I will judge the Jays on action and not words.

Jays2010 - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 05:53 PM EST (#208166) #

I listened to the whole conference call and his main points (build through scouting/player development/draft, not go for quick fixes, ownership is committed) is the same song and dance we heard when JP took over. Now to be fair to AA, I expected him to say those things. Heís certainly not going to come out and say we have no chance in hell of making the playoffs next season so donít buy season tickets. On the positive side, he did say the Jays will have one of the largest professional and amateur scouting departments out there and there will be great emphasis on Latin America.

There are some differences from what JP said; he seems willing to trade pitching which I think is going to be important. He also seems to be willing to make trades in general which I also think is important. As much as I thought JP got a bad rap, he seemed overly-reluctant to make trades or risks of any kind. Hence, he never really made an impact (positive or negative) trade. Also, the scouting stuff is nice to hear, but I agree, let's see what happens. The added emphasis on Latin America and scrapping the Pacific Rim project make sense; no point investing precious funds in something that will not produce a high quantity (and espescially quality) of players.

I get the sense the Jays will be players in free agency for guys looking for short-term contracts. No big splashes, but a couple of upside signings would not surprise me. Based on the fact that AA said he didn't see the Jays targeting older players, younger free agents are probably going to be looked at (i.e. Rich Harden?)

Anyone else catch Griffin talking about the "plan" in the last 8 years shifting from year to year? I was laughing out loud at that one.

John Northey - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 06:10 PM EST (#208167) #
The scout emphasis is a difference from the JP way, at least on the surface. And to me it makes a ton of sense. Other teams can beat them with money, and the draft depends largely on how bad you are (can't draft A-Rod if you don't have the #1 overall pick).

Scouting is an area I've wondered about for years. How do you measure them? Not everyone a scout recommends gets signed and a GM might take a guy a scout said was 3rd round talent in the 1st round for cash reasons thus making the scout look bad when the guy plays like a 3rd rounder. From what I could tell scouts seem to still be largely based on the old boys network rather than based on who actually finds the top talent. Projecting out what 18-22 year olds will do at 25 is the challenge and if a scout is really good at it then pay that scout what they deserve. I hope he does the same for coaches too, especially in the minors. Your coaches in A ball are probably the most important ones as the kids are the most ready to learn (young enough to adjust, probably just had their first failures as a player during their first season) yet they get paid the least by far from what I understand.

And again, the nutrition thing. Fairly cheap vs a ML salary yet rarely done. Proper nutrition for your low level minor leaguers could lead to guys who reach the majors in top condition rather than in mediocre condition which could shift guys from peaking in their 5th and on seasons to peaking in their 2nd or 3rd seasons which are years the team has 100% control over them rather than worrying about free agency just as the player peaks. Lets hope he does it.
Mylegacy - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 06:19 PM EST (#208168) #
I'm going to listen to the tape now - however your notes say AA said (you paraphrase):

"They are looking to be as competitive as they can as soon as they can but they need to add to the core for sustained success, they will not jeopardise the long term goal of sustained success."

To which I say BULLS*IT.

The ONLY way for "sustained success" in the AL East - once you build up to be competitive - is to spend dollar for dollar with Boston and  the Evil Ba*tards. He says we used to get 4 million - true, can we do it again year after year? We could for a year or two once a "young core" gets us there - however to stay at that attendance level requires on-going megabuck investments.

Now i'll listen to the tape. See you on the flip side.
brent - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 06:48 PM EST (#208170) #

Two things I'm concerned about: when is the team expected to contend and if they aren't going for it, why is Halladay not on the market?

 

Mylegacy - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 07:29 PM EST (#208171) #
Well...

I like the guys 110% gung ho commitment. This guy is not a 9 to 5 kida guy.

He was happy that the moves other teams have made he KNEW about - he'd been involved. Seemed to be satisfied he was "in the loop" so to speak.

He's very high on our Latin American scouting team. Me thinks he fells Henderson Alverez is not our only quality latin guy.

All other GM' s are interested in our "young pitching." The question I would have asked is he more likely to keep Romero, Rzepack and Cecil and try and trade Marcum, McG and Litsch - or - visa versa. I SUSPECT he would prefer to move the three older guys - if it came to that.

With Scutaro - he's "weighing" cost of Scoots vs cost of a new SS (including the cost of a trade for one) and balancing all that AND considering the two high draft choices we'd get for Scoots. I would have asked: What happens IF we trade for a new SS, offer Scoots "arbitration" and then he can't find a dance partner and comes home looking to accept arbitration.

On balance - I LIKE the guy. KLaw likes the guy - even my wife - She Who Must Be Obeyed likes the guy. He's a nice guy.

I'll drink the koolaid. Lets see who he gets for Halladay - I say he'd be more inclined than JP was to trade Roy for a few real high end prospects. I would agree to that - depending on the prospects natch.

Are you SURE it's not April yet?

Jays2010 - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 07:56 PM EST (#208173) #

All other GM' s are interested in our "young pitching." The question I would have asked is he more likely to keep Romero, Rzepack and Cecil and try and trade Marcum, McG and Litsch - or - visa versa. I SUSPECT he would prefer to move the three older guys - if it came to that.

To me, I don't necessarily see the point in trading a pitcher unless they have a reasonable amount of value and the team has to believe that it may be maximizing its asset (i.e. a pitcher with a high injury risk). Romero is the guy I'd move because he is young, a former high draft pick, left-handed and in the ROY conversation for a lot of the year pitching in the AL East. NL teams probably see number 2 starter upside. Sure, the Jays could use him as well. But there is a MASSIVE need for position players at CF, 3B, SS and possibly C. Basically every difficult-to-fill position other than Aaron Hill's.

The Jays have built up a nice stable of mid-rotation type pitching (with guys such as Romero/Cecil/Rzpecynski/Stewart possibly having top of the rotation potential). But there are no future aces (most likely, based on secondary information gleaned from sources such as BA) other than McGowan (and obviously he is a major risk to pitch again, let alone as a starting pitcher). I am not saying trade all of them for position players, but at least one...and maybe one every year as necessary. There arms are going to fall off anyway so if we do not have an established stud, let someone else do his work. Marcum or Cecil, for example, are quite capable of replacing the job that Romero did in 2009. Will they? Who the hell knows (though either one could be even more productive).

Maybe the pitching will take a slight drop-off but there could be a major long term gain by, for example, bringing in someone like Carlos Gonzalez and moving VW to RF. That's probably a few wins with one trade assuming someone can replace Romero's production.

Of course, Doc's production is irreplacable (or, at the least, very difficult to replace)...but the Jays probably shouldn't be going for more than being a .500 team next year anyway...

John Northey - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 08:40 PM EST (#208174) #
One thing to remember also is signing a mid-level free agent to fill in a gap (ala Cameron) is not going to stop developing a strong long term system. AA could set up the team in a way to maximize the odds of being in that 7-10% who do the big jump without selling off the future or committing long term to free agents since we have obvious holes that, if filled, would lead to a 10 game improvement potentially without any 3 year or $10+ mil a year deals signed.

How? Sign Adam Everett (gold glove quality defense with poor offense) which should break even for losing Scutaro (great vs average glove, poor vs good offense) ($1 mil last year, $2.8 is the most he ever made)
Sign Mike Cameron - details above, has never signed a deal worth more than $7 mil outside of the dropped option for 2009 ($10 mil).

Other options, depending on goals, include guys like Coco Crisp who (outside of 2008) is a premium defensive outfielder who would be cheap due to a poor bat, Vlad Guerrero (off year, could be cheap), etc.

Goal is to keep any guys signed to under $10 mil and with clear upside potential (off injuries or poor seasons) or with clear skill sets that might be undervalued or big assets to this particular team (ie: defense). Stay cheap and slight upgrade or minimal downgrade at SS/CA/CF(RF) and this team could improve a lot in 2010 without tossing out the future.
Jays2010 - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 09:20 PM EST (#208175) #

I agree with the general framework John; but this would mean keeping Halladay and, really, it seems like too great of a hurdle to overcome in 2010 to compete at this point. Far too many rotation questions (though it definately could be a very good rotation) and I suppose they could hope, for example, that trading for Snyder, resigning Scutaro, signing Beltre and Cameron would stabalize the holes in the defense and lineup...but all those guys have big question marks as well.

I basically agree with what AA said; there is a decent core of young players but there are not enough of them. By trading Halladay, there may be enough of a young core in a couple of years to supplement with free agents to contend in the AL East; right now they are trapped in the "good enough to compete in any other division" mode...

tstaddon - Saturday, November 07 2009 @ 09:35 PM EST (#208176) #
There is no way Adam Everett replaces Marco Scutaro. Most advanced defensive metrics had Scutaro behind only Tulowitzki and Andrus in terms of glove work last year - ahead of Everett - and the difference at the plate is not even close. Not to mention that, just as Scutaro is another year older, so is Everett. Offer arbitration, wait until early '10 and then bring Marco back.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:37 AM EST (#208181) #
Pay attention to the Teams with money troubles, there will be a lot of deals available, for good players, for not much more than the ability to take on salary (eg. possible Stynes - Overbay deal / 11.25 - 7.0).   Prepare for as many as 5 or more possible deals this off-season.   We are getting younger and better.
Denoit - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 08:10 AM EST (#208182) #
The trade for Snyder would actully cut the payroll for 2010. According to Cot's baseball contracts that 11.5M is distributed over 2 years. Snyder is only making 4.75 in 2010 and 5.75 in 2011. I like this trade, offensivly I dont think Snyder will be as good as Overbay, but the Jays have other options at first. They could possibly use Lind, Ruiz, or give Dopirak a shot. Overall I think the team would be in a better position. Reports are that Snyder's calling is his defense and game calling abilities. This guy OPS'ed .800 in 08 and is a career .731. Baraja's best year in Toronto was a .704 and at 34 he isnt getting any younger.
92-93 - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 08:40 AM EST (#208184) #
"By trading Halladay, there may be enough of a young core in a couple of years to supplement with free agents to contend in the AL East;"

No matter how many different people say this in a different way, it won't become true. Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, and CC Sabathia have proven you just aren't going to get the haul you are all dreaming about. Keep Doc for a year and let him make the decision that he's walking - don't make it for him. Then sign the 2 picks, preferably to overslot deals (someone like a Paxton), and you're getting a better value (when factoring in a season of Halladay).
ayjackson - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 09:58 AM EST (#208186) #

Assuming an Overbay-Snyder deal, our potential 25-man roster might look like this heading into the offseason:

  1. Chris Snyder - C
  2. Adam Lind - 1B
  3. Aaron Hill - 2B
  4. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
  5. TBA - SS
  6. Travis Snider - LF
  7. Vernon Wells - CF
  8. TBA - RF
  9. Randy Ruiz - DH
  10. TBA - bench C
  11. Joe Inglett - UT
  12. Jose Bautista - UT
  13. TBA - bench SS
  14. Roy Halladay - S1
  15. Ricky Romero - S2
  16. Shaun Marcum - S3
  17. Mark Rzepczynski - S4
  18. Brett Cecil - S5
  19. Jason Frason - CL
  20. Scott Downs - CL
  21. Brandon League - setup
  22. Jesse Carlson - setup
  23. Shawn Camp - long
  24. Brian Tallet - long
  25. Dustin McGowan - role unknown

Accardo is an obvious ommission there, but I prefer the Tallet-Camp long man combo to another short reliever.

Jbau is probably getting too expensive to qualify again - but maybe they end up bringing him back at a lesser amount.  Jmac and Angel Sanchez are potential backup SS.  I'd like to see Ankiel and Baldelli brought in as the 3rd and 4th outfielders (Baldelli at the expense of Bautista).  I guess if nothing better presents itself in the offseason, we could end up with MacDonald AND Sanchez as our shortstops - it may fit the MO of not blowing the long-term for a short term fix at the position.

Jays2010 - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 01:25 PM EST (#208187) #

No matter how many different people say this in a different way, it won't become true. Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, and CC Sabathia have proven you just aren't going to get the haul you are all dreaming about. Keep Doc for a year and let him make the decision that he's walking - don't make it for him. Then sign the 2 picks, preferably to overslot deals (someone like a Paxton), and you're getting a better value (when factoring in a season of Halladay).

Sabathia netted Matt LaPorta so let's see what he does before assuming that trade worked out terribly for Cleveland. I don't think anyone is suggesting to just trade Halladay for anything; and perhaps, like Sabathia, the best time will be at the deadline. But considering the weak pitching on the free agent market, I think the Jays are in a decent position. I expect him to be traded and while it likely won't be for a pilfering of the other team's farm system, I expect it to be better than the Santana and Lee trades respectively.

Forkball - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 01:39 PM EST (#208188) #
And again, the nutrition thing. Fairly cheap vs a ML salary yet rarely done. Proper nutrition for your low level minor leaguers could lead to guys who reach the majors in top condition rather than in mediocre condition which could shift guys from peaking in their 5th and on seasons to peaking in their 2nd or 3rd seasons which are years the team has 100% control over them rather than worrying about free agency just as the player peaks. Lets hope he does it.

I bet if you wrote a letter to AA he would consider it and respond to you.
China fan - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 01:45 PM EST (#208189) #
According to MLB.com, the Jays and Arizona are "making progress" on the trade of Overbay for Snyder.   I'm sorry, but I see this as primarily a budget-cutting move.  Snyder might be marginally better than Barajas as a catcher, but the trading of Overbay would be clearly a salary dump.  Overbay is still a very useful player, even if he is platooned.   The Jays need to be acquiring good positional players, not dumping them.   From everything that AA said in his conference call, and from the evidence of his first trade, the reign of AA reminds me a lot of Ricciardi in his first year at the helm:  dump players, dump contracts, go cheap, get rid of veterans, assume that the team can't win for several years.  The strategy is simple:  please the owners by cutting budget, placate the fans by talking a lot about "scouting" and "development", and exploit the fact that the GM has two or three years of free sailing before the owners begin to look closely at the team on the field.  The problem is not AA, of course -- the problem is the owners, whose primary interest is in saving money and making easy profits by exploiting the built-in 80 per cent of annual revenue that can't disappear no matter what happens on the field.
China fan - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:05 PM EST (#208190) #

  And by the way, Lyle Overbay this season had the 2nd-highest OBP and 2nd-highest OPS of any regular who is still on the roster today.  And the 3rd-highest SLG.    And with 500 plate appearances, he was a lot more than a platoon player in 2009.   And he can't be replaced by Ruiz or Lind at 1B without a huge loss in defence.  If this combination of offensive and defensive skill is not worth $7-million to the Jays -- if they'd get rid of him to save a few mill -- then we're really heading for a 2010 season that's going to be even more difficult to watch than I had anticipated.   Can't they give us some tiny amount of hope for next season?  Does it really have to be all about penny-pinching?

lexomatic - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:23 PM EST (#208191) #
China fan, I'm not sure how you can call the potential Snyder trade a salary dump when (without negotiation) the Jays stand to take on more salary with this trade - not AAV, but in total. Snyder is potentially a HUGE upgrade offensively over Barajas, and Lind is a capable replacement at 1b. I see this more as a maximizing of value of resources on hand. There's also positional scarcity to take into consideration, and the fact that it gives JPA (or someone else) time to develop into more than a backup without blocking them.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:30 PM EST (#208192) #

According to MLB.com, the Jays and Arizona are "making progress" on the trade of Overbay for Snyder.   I'm sorry, but I see this as primarily a budget-cutting move.

Show me who our starting catcher is for the next 2 or 3 years.   Especially when we can't guarentee Arencebia, Jeroloman, Jimenez, Jaspe, Ochinko or Gomes will be MLB-ready full-time catcher in less than 3 years.   $4.75 M. + $5.75 M. + $6.75 or .75M -vs- $7.0M is in no way a budget-cutting move, it's just short-term thinking.   No specific payroll, it will be what it needs to be.   Saving $2.25M is insignificant to spending $4.25 to $10.25 over the next two if the minors fail us.   28 - vs- 34 is a good move.    Brian Dopirak finally deserves an opportunity to see if he's any good at the MLB-level.   If not, why keep him?   Adam Lind can play first, just needs to shake the rust off.

Never assume you are smarter than the people you talk about (I never do), that's being foolish.   A.A. hasn't done anything yet that isn't automatic (waiver claims).   Notice, he's distanced himself from Cito.   So wait for something to judge to happen first.

China fan - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:41 PM EST (#208193) #

Why is it a salary dump?  Simple.  The salary commitment to Snyder would be only slightly more than what the Jays are obliged to budget for the catcher position anyway.  Look at the salaries that the Jays allocated in the past few years for Barajas, Zaun or Molina.  Or look at the salary that the Jays would have to hand out to a free agent replacement for Barajas for the next year or two.  Snyder's salary is only marginally higher.   So the main salary difference, from this trade, is the dumping of the $7-million for Overbay.   You'd have to be naive to think that this trade with Arizona is not motivated by money.

As for Lind playing 1B:  he has not played a single game at 1B during his entire major-league career.   I hardly think that he is going to replace Overbay at 1B.   The Jays are just creating another mess in the lineup by dumping Overbay to save money, just as they previously created a mess at 3B by dumping Rolen to save money.

fozzy - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:42 PM EST (#208194) #
Overbay may have had the second highest OBP and OPS on the team, but between him and Barajas they ranked in the bottom third at their positions in the AL (in fact I would say that any gains made by one cancel the other out to around league average). If they can use one of those two to hugely upgrade the other at a minor cost (and Snyder has a fantastic defensive reputation), when they have an option to replace the traded one more than capably, they'd be foolish not to. Considering 4 of the top 6 teams for OPS came from the AL East, it's going to take a lot more than what Overbay+Barajas bring to make up some ground.

Between finding either a fill-in 1B, DH or RF (because I'd much rather see Snider in left and a defensive RF), there's a whole lot more out there than the C market, which is looking very weak outside of Martinez, followed by a bunch of retreads. I'll be patient and wait and see what AA's plan for next year is before jumping to conclusions about the makeup of this team - especially if Doc is dealt, the pieces of this team could be significantly different (ie. I'm sure we won't be remiss of Overbay if Justin Smoak is his replacement) than what we see on November 8.

What I'd like to know is if the Jays acquire Snyder, what of Kyle Phillips? Kid looked pretty solid back there, and I can't imagine anyone other than Chavez backing up whatever addition they make next year, for better or worse. With Arencibia and Jeroloman at AAA, where does he fit in?

fozzy - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:46 PM EST (#208195) #
As for Lind playing 1B:  he has not played a single game at 1B during his entire major-league career.   I hardly think that he is going to replace Overbay at 1B.   The Jays are just creating another mess in the lineup by dumping Overbay to save money, just as they previously created a mess at 3B by dumping Rolen to save money.

In fairness, Lind did play 1B all through college, and was drafted as a 1B, so it's not like the position is totally foreign to him. Lesser players have done more there with weaker skillsets (and I'd hope Butterfield would take charge on making sure he's a capable defensive replacement).

Or he could still be the DH, and AA acquires a 1B through a trade or a signing. Or EE becomes the 1B. Who knows at this point?
fozzy - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:48 PM EST (#208196) #
As an aside, I thought Rolen made it pretty clear he demanded a trade out of Toronto because of family issues and wanting to be closer to home )though this could totally be in my imagination). I recall the trade being lauded because JP actually got something significant for a player he was forced to deal and was otherwise considering selling for pennies on the dollar.
lexomatic - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 02:53 PM EST (#208197) #
im' not going to go into offense and defensive value for Overbay and Lind.. someone else can do that if they want.
when I see Snyder's stats i see Ernie Whitt (not adjusted for era)

Barajas
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/barajro01.php
career obp 284 highest 352 (120 ab) or 306 (410 ab)
tick above average fielding
career 229 eqa (256, 254,238 3 best) career 10.7 warp
career woba 296 rar 69.3 (-73.8 batting +86.8 replacement +55.4 position)
gp 813 since 1999
FA (2.5 mil 2009)

Snyder
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/snydech02.php
career 333 obp
slightly above average fielding
career eqa 249 (3 years prior to this year = 260+ average career 11.3 warp
career woba 318 rar 68.4 (-24.8 bat +56.1 replace +37.1 position)
gp 491 (since 2004)
salary 3mil 2009 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.75M, 12:$6.75M club option ($0.75M buyout)
11.25-17.25mil

power & average and defense roughly identical
obp HUGE plus for snyder
age = 6 year advantage for snyder... also huge
Gerry - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 03:43 PM EST (#208198) #

I believe the Jays have a logjam in slow hitters with Lind, Snider, Ruiz and Overbay.  Dopirak would be in that group too if he makes it.  The prospect of an outfield of Lind, Snider and Wells with Ruiz at DH would be a big negative for the Jays.  So one of these guys has to go and the Jays have to get more athletic and defensive minded.  Ruiz might not make the major league roster so the problem might be partially solved, but if you think Ruiz or Dopirak would be on the major league roster then you have to move someone.  Overbay is the obvious guy, he is not a "core player" like Lind or Snider, and he has trade value.

I checked the player values at fangraphs.  Barajas was worth 0.8 wins in 400+ AB's in 2009.  Snider in 2008 and 2007 was worth approx 2.3 in 300+ AB's or over 3.0 wins in a comparable number of AB's to Barajas.  That, of course, assumes he can get back to his form of 2007 and 2008.

Overbay is valued by Fangraphs as a 2 win player, Snyder rates higher due to his playing a tougher defensive position.

The bottom line to me is that 2 win first basemen should be readily available, 2 or 3 win catchers are hard to find.

China fan - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 03:47 PM EST (#208199) #

Lexomatic, if you're going to cite Snyder's career numbers as an advantage over Barajas, in fairness you should also mention Snyder's recent injury and his dreadful 2009 season.   Both of those factors are not entirely irrelevant in assessing whether Snyder will be as much of an improvement over Barajas as you seem to think.

China fan - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 03:55 PM EST (#208200) #

Gerry, I agree that a good first-baseman should be easier to find than a good catcher.  But to be honest, do you really think that the Jays will search hard for a good first-baseman in the off-season?   In fact, AA has already made it pretty clear that he won't be signing any free agents.  And I am skeptical that the Jays will be trading for a first-baseman in the off-season.  If they were going to trade for a first-baseman, they might as well just keep Overbay. 

In principle, I agree with the argument that we should wait for all of AA's moves in the next few months before we judge him.  Fair enough.  I'm just saying that the tradiing of Overbay fits with the pattern of the other major moves of the past few months -- Rolen, Rios, the failure to sign top draft picks -- and the likely trading of Halladay.  I don't think I'm wrong to detect a bit of a trend in these moves.

And, by the way, to the poster who suggested that the Jays were forced to trade Rolen:  no they weren't forced to trade Rolen.  He might have wanted to go to the Mid-West (if you believe that version), but there was nothing that forced the Jays to trade him.

Dewey - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 04:08 PM EST (#208201) #
Gerry, Snider isn't slow.  I thought he might be; but my eyes tell me otherwise.  He seems a quite intelligent runner, too.
PeterG - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 04:41 PM EST (#208202) #
Snyder deal called off by Jays according to Arizona Republic. It is apparently due to concerns about his back as it is only 6 weeks post surgery. It is speculated that he was to undergo a physical today. Guess he failed.
Gerry - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 04:48 PM EST (#208203) #

Let's assume Overbay gets traded and Lind becomes the first baseman.  Defensively we have no idea how good he will be there, he did play 1B in college and he was listed as a 1B by Baseball America back in 2004.

Now Ruiz and a left handed hitter can be the DH.  Snider can play left and Wells right and the team signs or trades for a CF.  That would be the most appealing route for me.  I know Snider isn't slow but I don't think he is a burner either and his defense still needs work. 

Now you need a shortstop and a CF, either by trade or a free agent.  Before this you needed a catcher, a SS and a CF, you have plugged a hole with surplus talent.  That is the same as what the D'backs are trying to do by trading Snyder.

Gerry - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 04:50 PM EST (#208204) #

Too slow...

Maybe Arizona have a SS or a CF being blocked by Drew and Upton?

lexomatic - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 05:36 PM EST (#208205) #
admittedly Snyder's injury was a concern, but i chose not to deal with it and focus on the numbers. Mostly because the only way we are going to know anything about it is if details come out (because he failed a physical or the trade goes through.)
His 2009 horrible season did not bother me, because he still had a 333 obp. his babip was 240 when it could reasonably have been expected to be around 280-290 his woba was 304 iso was 150. this year his eqa was 241 and his warp was .7 in 60 games

last year Barajas had a woba of 282. his babip was also low compared to his career numbers. his iso this year was his highest since he was a Ranger. Barajas had a 220 eqa and he has only beaten Snyder's horrible season total twice (once as a starter, once in 50 gp) in his CAREER. his warp total was 1.4 in twice the games.. basically equal.

comparing someone's worst season (that still arguably comes out ahead) to someone's middle of the pack season is an absolute no brainer unless you find out injury information to make it a risk not worth taking. If you can't see why it's a deal worth looking into, then please tell me what online pools are you in? because i want to be in the same leagues as you.
that being said, I'm glad the Jays did their due diligence and checked things out thoroughly. I expect Arizona to have an expensive backup until Snyder can prove he's healthy and his skills are unaffected.
PeterG - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 05:38 PM EST (#208206) #

There is still an upside to this failed transaction.It illustrates that AA intends to be pro-active and that he will not be easily duped(see Gord Ash/Mike Sirotka).

Geoff - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 05:39 PM EST (#208207) #
He has spoken with 28 of 30 GM's, everyone except the Phillies and the Yankees.

That would mean that he has been talking to himself, which would concern me.
China fan - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 05:54 PM EST (#208208) #
Lexomatic, I always agreed that Snyder looks like an upgrade on Barajas.   If it was a trade of Barajas for a fully healthy Snyder, then yes, of course I would agree with it.   And yes, of course any serious deal should be "looked into" or "considered."   I never disputed that.   My main concern was the dumping of Overbay, still a useful player, at a time when the Jays need to keep their best hitters, not dump them.   Sure, if there's a decent return -- good prospects or whatever -- I could accept the rationale for trading Overbay.   The prospects might be more useful than Overbay in 2011 or 2012 or whenever the Jays are trying to contend.   But if Overbay is being "traded" for a second-string catcher who is recovering from very serious injury and suffered a bad 2009 season, it smacks of a salary dump, rather than a good trade. 
lexomatic - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 08:20 PM EST (#208209) #
the thing is China Fan , you don't trade for Snyder unless he's going to be a starter or unless you have a huge budget, or you're not giving anything up. . i don't understand your use of second-string here.
as for overbay being useful, yes, however as someone who is basically average offensively, he is replaceable.
the problem with the Jays during the Ricciardi era has been too many decent guys, who don't hurt you, but don't really push you towards a championship. If trading Overbay allows you to upgrade a difficult position to fill without losing anything (assuming offense for defense tradeoff = moot, i think the Jays gain more offensively) then why not do it? i'm not advocating dumping Overbay, I'm advocating making a baseball trade that makes the team better.
You are arguing that Overbay should be kept because he's one of the teams best hitters... like someone else pointed out, offensively his production would be the easiest to replace because he's an average offensive 1b, so therefore he's not worth hanging on to if he will bring you a more useful piece.
If you can't trade him for anything that helps, then platoon him and let the contract run out.

for reference:
here is a list of 24 1b in the ml who had 500 plate appearances ( i haven't bothered to check if there's some dh's hiding there or not)
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/1b/sort/OPS/minpa/500

Overbay is 20th out of those 24 in ops
3 are in the 700s 8 are in the 800s 11 are in the 900s and 2 at 1000+
i don't care how good his defense is, he' s not good enough offensively to worry about keeping.
if you change the list to 350 minimum PAs vs rhp,
he's still only 16th of 24 with a 905 ops
5 in the 700s, 2 in the 800s, 12 in the 900s, 5 at 1000+

he comes up 20th on this list of wOBA
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2009&month=0

the more i look at these lists, the less i think it matters if he's around next year.
Magpie - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 08:29 PM EST (#208210) #
Lind did play 1B all through college, and was drafted as a 1B

While Lind was at South Alabama, he played first base in 2003 (he played in 56 games) and outfield (58 games) in 2004.

I will be absolutely astonished if Lind becomes as competent a defensive player as Carlos Delgado, which isn't setting the bar very high. I figure he'll hurt the team less in left field, and not at all at DH, rather than asking him to handle the ball 1000 times in a season.
robertdudek - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 08:49 PM EST (#208211) #
People expecting an 85-95 win season next year are going to be sorely disappointed.

This is a team in decline, with an offense full of mostly old players and with critical holes newly opened up (at SS and C) that will be a huge challenge to fill.

The talent level on this team has been declining in recent years and with one of the weakest farm systems in MLB and no money to spend on free agency there is virtually zero chance of reversing this in the near-term.

I suppose it will take a 100-loss season for the Pollyanna types to see the truth (not saying this will happen - they could muddle along as a mediocre team for years like the Houston Astros used to do).

greenfrog - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 08:59 PM EST (#208212) #
I agree that the resource and talent level in the organization is too thin to allow it to compete in the near term.

However, AA could accelerate the rebuilding with some deft moves over the next year. If the Jays receive draft compensation for Scutaro, draft aggressively in 2010 (and sign the damn picks this time), pull off a strong trade for Doc, and eventually start increasing payroll over the next few years, they could be back on the upswing by around 2012-14.
christaylor - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 10:03 PM EST (#208213) #
"This is a team in decline, with an offense full of mostly old players and with critical holes newly opened up (at SS and C) that will be a huge challenge to fill."

Given the holes at SS/C leaves 6 players, and players peak later than the 27 that's commonly cited - how is the offense "mostly old"?

Old/Passing Prime:
1B Overbay - 33
CF Wells - 31

Young/Approaching Prime
3B Encarnacion - 27
LF/1B/DH Lind - 26
2B Hill - 25
LF/RF Snider - 21

It doesn't look like a *good* offense to me, but it is not an especially old one and certainly not one that is "mostly old". I'm not expecting a 95 win season anytime in the next 5 years, but I'd most certainly bet there won't be a 100 loss season in the next 5. As for the 85 wins next year, the 2009 pythagorean record had the Jays at 84 wins and it won't take much to make the 2010 team as good as the 2009 team. The mere possibility of a 100 loss season, would probably get Rogers Corp. writing cheques to get the team back to .500 (attendance would crater below 10,000).

The organization may be in decline, but Beeston signing for 3 years gives a good window for how much time he sees that he'll need to get the organization he helped build climbing again. As mentioned by another poster above, I wouldn't assume that you're smarter/know more than those running the Jays.
Mike Green - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 10:48 PM EST (#208214) #
All marketing.  Pfui. 

After last year's fiasco, vague commitments to spend when the team is ready to win just don't cut it.  The Jays ought to draw 15,000 per game in 2010 and chalk up another 75 wins.  Rogers needs a kick in the pants, so they can get on with the important business of selling the team. 

I'd rather if the GM announced that the payroll will be $75 million per year during 2010 and 2011 and an average of $110 million during the 2012-2014 period.  These announcements rarely happen.  

Gerry - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 10:56 PM EST (#208215) #
According to Blair, the Jays were in on JJ Hardy and will ask about Russell Martin next week.  To get Hardy would have taken Lind or Snider, per Blair.
Denoit - Sunday, November 08 2009 @ 11:43 PM EST (#208216) #
Blair also mentions they will talk about catchers Chris Snyder and Russell Martin at the winter meetings. Its the Russell Martin name that has me interested. It would probalby take quite a bit to get him, maybe he could be included in part of a Roy Halladay package? That would solve the catching issues for a few more  years. Not to mention he is a good Canadian boy.
christaylor - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 12:19 AM EST (#208217) #
The Brewers see Lind/Snider = Gomez. Lind maybe, if one truly believes Gomez's bat will improve but that's a stretch given his performance thus far.

Martin would be a nice pickup, even though his SLG has fallen off the table.
TamRa - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 12:42 AM EST (#208218) #
I'm sorry but Melvin is out of his flippin mind if he thinks 2 years of JJ Hardy - a guy he didn't even see fit to leave in the majors all year - is REMOTELY worth Snider or Lind.

and IF Gomez is on the same level - which I have serious doubts about - then the Twins are blockheads for dealing him for Hardy.

As for the Martin talk, I've thought all along he made an obvious target. if the Dodgers divorce/money situation doesn't take them out of the Halladay market they are the obvious first choice, IMO, in terms of being able to give up the sort of players that suit our needs.

Martin being one of them.


Jays2010 - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 01:22 AM EST (#208219) #

All of this Adam Lind talk and the associated reluctance to make him the 1B...makes me feel even more that the Jays should consider moving him in the right deal. Not saying Lind is Adrian Gonzalez...but he is cheap and controllable for another 4 years. And there are some nice prospects being tossed around in rumours for Gonzalez. Any team interested in Bay or Holliday might consider it a wiser investment to trade for a cheap player like Lind than spending $100 million for Bay/Holliday or whatever.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmlDU9fjdvO0XkLYInpk.MqFCLcF?slug=sh-offseasonstorylines110809&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Not that this is the only article that brings it up, but it sounds like the Dodgers may consider trading Billingsley. Now I doubt they would trade Russell Martin and Billingsley in a Halladay trade, but perhaps if the trade were expanded. Maybe the Dodgers don't mind giving up the assets but have budget issues due to the McCourt divorce; maybe if the Jays take Juan Pierre and some of his contract back the Dodgers would be more inclined to give better players in return.

Not sure if Texas has legitimate interest in Doc, but they may also have a need for a strong left-handed reliever like Scott Downs if CJ Wilson becomes a starter. There are rumblings that they may have interest in resigning Pudge so they don't have two young catchers; perhaps Salty is available? They obviously won't trade Andrus and I'd be shocked if they traded Feliz; but perhaps they'd give up Smoak, Salty and Borbon for Doc or Doc and Downs.

There have been rumblings in the past that the Braves might consider trading Yunel Escobar and they are looking for a power-hitting LF. Lind for Escobar sounds good for the Jays (though the only reason for the Braves to do this is if they seriously question Escobar's makeup). Should be an interesting winter...

christaylor - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:09 AM EST (#208220) #
It kind of makes sense if you look at it from his perspective. He wants/needs to trade JJ for a CF. Jays come a calling but can not meet his needs, but sure he'll trade Hardy to the Jays, if he can rip the newbie (or whatever the equivalent term is in Melvinese) off...

AA hopefully said thanks, but no thanks and took just long enough to have Melvin hear him laughing at the Brewers offer.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Jays AREN'T going to deal Halladay. The Dodgers are a good target but all the ideas I've seen floated seem to ask the Dodgers to give up a ton.
Matthew E - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:52 AM EST (#208221) #

I just listened to the Anthopoulos conference call. There's nothing wrong with what he said. I just don't think the Jays will be able to achieve his stated goals.

He talked about building a strong player development system. I don't think he can build one strong enough. I mean, maybe he can. But he's going to have to prove it to me.

He talked about how Rogers is committed to providing whatever the Jays need to win. I don't think they are. I mean, maybe they are. But they're going to have to prove it to me.

He mentioned how, if there's a winning team, the fans will come back in large numbers. I don't think they will. I mean, maybe they will. But they're going to have to prove it to me.

Left unspoken was the idea that the Blue Jays players will play up to their abilities, win games when it counts, not suffer undue amounts of injuries, and generally rise to the occasion. I don't think they will. I mean, maybe they will. But they're going to have to prove it to me.

christaylor - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 10:12 AM EST (#208222) #
I've just been thinking about the rumblings on the board about moving Lind to 1B. While he's a below average LF, the skill set for 1B/LF is entirely different. Most of what has been problematic with Lind (to my eyes) have been his routes to the ball, his speed and a below average arm.

Hopefully, Butterfield has worked w/Lind at first and can say definitely whether he has the tools to be average at 1B. I believe the willingness for the Jays to trade Overbay, must mean that this evaluation has already occurred.
Chuck - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 11:57 AM EST (#208224) #

Hopefully, Butterfield has worked w/Lind at first and can say definitely whether he has the tools to be average at 1B

I think the word "average" is being used far too liberally. I would suggest that the probability is infinitessimally small that Lind will, in 2010, be an average defensive player at a position he will not have played for 7 years.

Now, whether he can be a passable first baseman (i.e., bottom of the league but not prohibitively bad) is another question entirely. I think passable is where the bar should be set for Lind at first base. Any higher than that is just wishcasting.

Jays2010 - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 11:59 AM EST (#208225) #

Hopefully, Butterfield has worked w/Lind at first and can say definitely whether he has the tools to be average at 1B. I believe the willingness for the Jays to trade Overbay, must mean that this evaluation has already occurred.

I hope this is true. To me, moving Lind to 1B is the best scenario. I mean, we have 3 quality young players in Hill/Lind/Snider and if two of them are rotating between DH and LF...it isn't really desirable. At the least, what is the harm in trying Lind at 1B? It is the easiest defensive position and we have no proof that Lind can't be at least average at the position.

Mike Green - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 01:34 PM EST (#208226) #
Lind probably does have the "tools to be average" defensively at first base, although it might be a bit much to expect him to be that right away.  The pool is very, very shallow.  At the bottom, you've got Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, and Billy Butler among the 19 regular first basemen in the majors. 

 
Mick Doherty - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 03:27 PM EST (#208227) #

Not sure if Texas has legitimate interest in Doc, but they may also have a need for a strong left-handed reliever like Scott Downs if CJ Wilson becomes a starter. There are rumblings that they may have interest in resigning Pudge so they don't have two young catchers; perhaps Salty is available? They obviously won't trade Andrus and I'd be shocked if they traded Feliz; but perhaps they'd give up Smoak, Salty and Borbon for Doc or Doc and Downs.

Interested? Sure, who wouldn't be? Able to afford him? Absolutely not, and the sale of the team is still months off at best. That said, I am positive they'd rather trade Teagarden than Saltalamacchia; Borbon is going to start in CF --Hamilton moves to LF as Byrd leaves via FA; and Smoak, well, I can't imagine they'd trade him with Blalock halfway out the door ...

So in short, nice idea, but the money isn't there and the suddenly prospect-conscious Rangers are far less likely to make a deal anyway ...

John Northey - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 03:43 PM EST (#208228) #
I wonder... would Texas make a deal and put in better prospects if the Jays eat Halladay's salary in 2010?  Would it be a good investment for the Jays if that is the case?

If for $15 mil (roughly) the Jays could get a top quality player for a position or two plus a couple more to match whatever they are getting offered elsewhere for Halladay it would have to be tempting as the cost for developing a player is significant.  On Texas' side it would be to get a shot at winning in 2010 which would lead to more ticket sales/etc. which would lead to more cash at a time they desperately need it.

If 2010 is a 'building' year, and Halladay is gone no matter what, then why not spend that cash in the same way they would otherwise except now to gain an extra prospect or two from a very deep system?  It could work out for both teams although it would carry a big PR risk for both too.
ayjackson - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 04:04 PM EST (#208229) #

Here's a Halladay comment from the Baseball America Phillies' Top 10 Chat.....

John Manuel: Asked and answered on Mathiseon. Lots of Halladay trade questions. Put it this way -- the Phillies saw what trading prospects for Cliff Lee did. If Drabek, Taylor and one or two other guys brought Halladay, and there was money in the budget, I'd do it. And if the Jays said they had to have Dom Brown instead of Taylor, I still might do it, because Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee would be a heck of a 1-2 punch. Trading prospects for big leaguers is a great way to use a farm system; you just have to trade for the right guys. Halladay and Lee are the right kind of guys, don't you think?

I still think Phillies could be a player.  Taking two of Brown/Drabek/Taylor (their top 3 prospects) and maybe Gose or Sanata would be enough to get'r done.

Forkball - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 04:23 PM EST (#208230) #
If you have quality prospects you can create payroll flexibility pretty easily.

Because Texas does have those prospects you could take back players being dumped by the Rangers because of money to get their better prospects in a Halladay trade.  Hypothetically, make it a Michael Young ($16MM/year for the next 4 years) plus two A and two B prospects for Halladay and you're onto something.  Halladay replaces Young's salary and you get the prospects.  I doubt that happens, but the point is that if you can create payroll room if you have top prospects.

If the Jays really have the resources to do what they want, it'll probably be easier for them to go that route (taking on salary to get better younger players) than to try to increase payroll through free agency.  It seems like AA understands free agency is a losing battle so that's at least one improvement from JP.

Denoit - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 04:24 PM EST (#208231) #
I doubt the Phillies are going to completley drain their Farm System. If they didn't want to give up those guys in July what is going to make them change their mind now? Why wouldn't they try to sign a free agent  and hope that Cole Hamels returns to form. Phillies are out of the running, they will look for other ways to add a pitcher that will not have them lose almost their entire group of top 10 prospects from last year.
Mike Green - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 04:28 PM EST (#208232) #
Would the Rockies have interest in Halladay?  I assume that Roy would be willing to return home, and Colorado has a couple of young centerfielders (Gonzalez and Fowler), as well as some interesting young pitching. 
Chuck - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 04:37 PM EST (#208233) #
If they didn't want to give up those guys in July what is going to make them change their mind now?

Because they lost the World Series? Their corps is at a win-now age and no one in their rotation other than Lee won a World Series game.
Mylegacy - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 05:18 PM EST (#208235) #
I think the Phillies are nearly maxed out payroll wise. I don't think they can afford Roy. HOWEVER - how many shots at the gold do you get?  I would take Brown and one of Drabek or Taylor to make the deal.

AA - go do it.

andrewkw - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 05:32 PM EST (#208236) #
How about including Hill in a deal with the phillies?  He'd hold his own at 3rd base as they are looking to upgrade offensively there.

Even if they did only keep Doc for one year they'd have Hill for several to lesson the blow of selling the farm for a season of Doc.

Mylegacy - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 06:09 PM EST (#208237) #
andrekw - one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten...there now I'm calmed down enough to reply without screaming.

Hill and Lind are going NOWHERE. NOWHERE - OK period. We're not STARTING OVER - we're going to be building on our strengths - and RIGHT NOW except for a gaggle of young pitchers - Hill and Lind are the only two GUARANTEED KEEPERS short of some sort of 10 or so player mega-deal - which just ain't gonna happen.

Jays2010 - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 06:44 PM EST (#208239) #

I hope the best offer of the bunch doesn't come from the Phillies; first off, unless the player is capable of playing CF (such as Carlos Gonzalez), do we really need more OF's? I see massive holes at SS, CF and likely at C and 3B (unless you have faith in JPA and EE) and I think AT LEAST one of these positions have to be addressed in any Halladay trade unless a true franchise prospect is coming back the other way (and I don't think Brown or Drabek qualifies). Enough of this best player available stuff...position counts! If Dominic Brown can play CF then great, I'm all for him. But Wells is not going anywhere and more likely than not, neither are Snider and Lind. And Wells needs to get out of CF ASAP so let's not get a prospect to fill a corner OF.

If the Angels feel they need an ace and, for example, would consider moving Aybar because they feel Izturis isn't much of a downgrade at SS then I could see something there. I could see something with the Dodgers if they are willing to move Russell Martin (though, quite frankly, I'd want a decent amount more than just him). And the Rangers...well, I agree it seems highly unlikely that they'd shell out the money for Doc and as much as I'd advocate eating up some of Doc's salary to get better prospects, I don't see any precedent-setting moves like eating up money on a well-below market contract of a superstar like Doc.

katman - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:05 PM EST (#208241) #
Odd. David Cooper seems to be the only Jays prospect playing in the Arizona Fall League:

Mesa Solar Sox roster

Anyone else know what's up with that?

timpinder - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:06 PM EST (#208242) #

Rosenthal admits it's a long shot, but it has been reported that a 3-team deal has been discussed that would indirectly send Overbay to the Mets and Milton Bradley to the Jays.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10346028/Sources:-Bradley-being-discussed-in-3-way-deal

katman - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:09 PM EST (#208243) #
Odd, link tool seems hosed. Solar Sox roster is here:

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=t_ros&cid=542

Denoit - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:18 PM EST (#208244) #
@ Katman...check the Pheonix Desert Dogs roster you'll find the rest there
Denoit - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:27 PM EST (#208245) #

AA seems to have a thing for Bradley. Second trade rumor involving him. He is a talented player, I don't know if the baggage is worth it. He excelled for Ron Washington in Texas, could Cito command the same type of respect? Its a high risk/reward move but by the sounds of it Lyle Overbay is not going to be here come April. It would definatly solve who is going to play right feild question. If Toronto picks up a prospect in the trade I think that could even things out.

tercet - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:32 PM EST (#208246) #
Dopirak added to 40, and claim Mike McCoy(ss with no bat) off waivers from Colorado
Mike Green - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:46 PM EST (#208247) #
If McCoy could actually play short well, he would have had a major league job a while ago.  As it is, he's a utility infielder in waiting.  He controls the strike zone well enough to be useful depth.  Anthopoulos does seem to have set out to fix the imbalance between position players and pitchers in the organization.  It's a little thing, but better to be doing a little thing right than not.  I anticipate that with the departure of Arnsberg, we will see more balanced drafts as well. 
brent - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:53 PM EST (#208248) #
tercet, do you have a link or source for that?
brent - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 07:55 PM EST (#208249) #
ayjackson - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 08:03 PM EST (#208250) #

2 questions...

  1. When does Marcum have to return to the 40-man roster?  (I presume before the rule V draft in a month)
  2. Do qualified UFA's stay on the 40-man roster until they are signed by another team?

 

Thomas - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 08:50 PM EST (#208252) #
At the bottom, you've got Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, and Billy Butler among the 19 regular first basemen in the majors.

I was under the impression, perhaps mistaken, that Howard has noticably improved his defence in this past couple of years. He's not a Pujols, but I thought he had distanced himself from Cabrera and Butler and the like. His throwing arm is still significantly below average, but I thought the defensive metrics and observation evidence suggested he wasn't a liability with the glove anymore.

Jdog - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:38 PM EST (#208254) #
Offtopic

Is there any reason to believe Barajas will not accept arbitration if the Jays offer it. I can't really see Barajas declining arbitration as it will most likely mean a raise for him, as it stands with todays market I think a guy like Barajas would take that...especially considering how his last free agency scenario worked out.
Jim - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:51 PM EST (#208255) #

If for $15 mil (roughly) the Jays could get a top quality player for a position or two plus a couple more to match whatever they are getting offered elsewhere for Halladay it would have to be tempting as the cost for developing a player is significant.  On Texas' side it would be to get a shot at winning in 2010 which would lead to more ticket sales/etc. which would lead to more cash at a time they desperately need it.

The team that wouldn't pony up a few hundred thousand to sign their 2009 draft is going to give Texas 15 million dollars and Halladay for theirs?

The new front office wouldn't make it to the new year if they made that move.

 

Jays2010 - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:53 PM EST (#208256) #

Is there any reason to believe Barajas will not accept arbitration if the Jays offer it. I can't really see Barajas declining arbitration as it will most likely mean a raise for him, as it stands with todays market I think a guy like Barajas would take that...especially considering how his last free agency scenario worked out.

I think the fact that Jason Varitek excercised his $3 million player option is an indication that the Jays should NOT offer Barajas arbitration. I have to believe that Varitek would have been a more attractive commodity on the market than Barajas, if for no other reason than his "reputation". I see Barajas getting 2 years and $3 to $4 million (or 1 year and $2 million) on the open market and if I'm the Jays, I look elsewhere...

Jays2010 - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 09:57 PM EST (#208257) #

The team that wouldn't pony up a few hundred thousand to sign their 2009 draft is going to give Texas 15 million dollars and Halladay for theirs?

The new front office wouldn't make it to the new year if they made that move.

To be fair, a near-MLB ready prospect or 0-3 player is a safer bet than a draft pick. Not saying that the Jays would ever consider eating up $15 million of Doc's deal (though maybe for some ridiculously good offer like Salty, Feliz, Smoak and Borbon they should consider it) but it's not the same as refusing to spend on a draft pick.

brent - Monday, November 09 2009 @ 10:49 PM EST (#208259) #
The Jays need two catchers. I would risk offering arb to Barajas unless the Jays have some kind of trade in place. A million is no big deal when the team isn't going to go for it anyway. JP's problem that was he was doling out a million here and million there too many times. This would be more of a calculated risk.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 11:17 AM EST (#208271) #
I was under the impression, perhaps mistaken, that Howard has noticably improved his defence in this past couple of years. He's not a Pujols, but I thought he had distanced himself from Cabrera and Butler and the like. His throwing arm is still significantly below average, but I thought the defensive metrics and observation evidence suggested he wasn't a liability with the glove anymore.

You are probably right, but in a way, it illustrates my point of view.  Lind probably would start out ahead of where Howard was 4 years ago, and would have a decent chance of ending up at least as well as he is now. 
Forkball - Tuesday, November 10 2009 @ 03:17 PM EST (#208281) #
I see Barajas getting 2 years and $3 to $4 million (or 1 year and $2 million) on the open market and if I'm the Jays, I look elsewhere...

Why is someone giving him 2 years?  No one has ever given Barajas a 2 year deal.  The best he's done is a one year deal with a team option for a second year.  Now he's older and coming off his worst year in a long time.  At best he's a 50 game backup catcher.  If he gets a 1 year at $1.5MM offer he should take it.

If I were the Jays I wouldn't risk him accepting arbitration, which you probably have to assume is at least $2.5MM.  That pick isn't that important (you can always pick players that dropped because of money later in the draft to make up for it).
Gerry - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 09:17 AM EST (#208299) #

The Sporting News discusses AA's plan to add to the scouting department.

Instead of trying to spend with the big-money teams, the Blue Jays will try to out-scout them. "If we have the best scouts and development people, we'll make the best trades, we'll sign the best players and ultimately that will result in the best players up in Toronto," Anthopoulos said.

ayjackson - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 10:53 AM EST (#208305) #

There's no telling how a GM will view Barajas.  He hit 20 home runs, played good defence and had excellent reviews on handling pitchers (especially all the young ones).  This is all a lot of GM's can see.  Not to minimize it.  But just because we don't value Barajas' offensive contirbution, doesn't mean there aren't a lot of GM's out there that will.

John Northey - Wednesday, November 11 2009 @ 12:48 PM EST (#208312) #
Well, most (if not all) GM's are a bit smarter than HR/RBI's nowadays (although the Met's GM is a known RBI fan). 

Me?  I'd probably offer arbitration and then try to 'poison the well' so to speak with Barajas in hopes he goes elsewhere (via getting another guy as the #1 catcher or talking up the minor leaguers as likely starters thus encouraging Barajas to go elsewhere - maybe whoever you trade Halladay to would be told that Halladay really wants Barajas as his personal catcher).  It won't cost a team a pick but will give the Jays a sandwich one.  Of course, if the Jays feel they can't afford that many picks this year then it might not be worth the risk.  Of course, on the other hand, picks continue year to year now if you don't sign so it could be used in 2011 instead (and then not sign a different pick that year to shift it to 2012 hoping by then you can afford it).

Worse case, you pay $2.5 to $3 mil for a backup catcher who can potentially be respectable vs paying $500k.
Forkball - Thursday, November 12 2009 @ 10:47 AM EST (#208341) #
The Sporting News discusses AA's plan to add to the scouting department.
"An average draft is getting one above-average player," Anthopoulos said. "If we can go from one to two, while certainly there's an incremental cost, the value to our organization will be tenfold."

If he can sell that to ownership he's doing a lot better than his former boss, and will be a lot more successful.

I like the approach that AA is taking.  He's not doing things exactly how everyone else is.  And he feels that if he develops the best scouting staff in baseball the Jays will have the best pipeline of players.  Will having extra scouts be more effective?  Possibly, but we'll have to wait and find out.  But we do know that the current way of doing things just like everyone else, or a scaled down version of that will get you to top out at 90 wins in the AL East.  Even if you hire 20 scouts at $100k each that's just $2 million total.  Just hitting on one more player pays for itself, well, as he said, tenfold.

A JoePo article on being unconventional:  http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/02/a-few-baseball-ideas/#more-2575

Mike Green - Thursday, November 12 2009 @ 11:07 AM EST (#208342) #
Back in the day, the Jays marketed themselves (arrogantly) as "Canada's team".  It is strange that so little effort has been made to return to the coast-to-coast-to-coast approach notwithstanding the availability of so many games on cable and the departure of the Expos. 

This is not a small-market team.
Matthew E - Thursday, November 12 2009 @ 11:37 AM EST (#208343) #
One thing Anthopoulos hasn't commented on, either pro or con, is how comfortable he is with sabremetrics. For all I know he's a staunch traditionalist who thinks RBIs are too newfangled to bother with. Now, given the composition of Toronto's press corps, I don't blame him for not saying anything about it. Still, I'd like to know if advanced stats are any part of his approach. Anybody know anything about this?
Forkball - Thursday, November 12 2009 @ 03:52 PM EST (#208346) #
One thing Anthopoulos hasn't commented on, either pro or con, is how comfortable he is with sabremetrics.

It's just speculation on my part, but I would think given his age, background and apparent open-mindedness that AA has a pretty firm grip on sabremetric concepts.  Frankly, it's not too difficult to understand the first 90%.

Plus, he's said some things that lead you to that direction to (like saying there's a 4-7% chance to go from 75 wins to 95 wins, the benefits of finding young players, not delving into free agency, etc..).

cybercavalier - Thursday, November 12 2009 @ 04:48 PM EST (#208347) #

I believe the Jays have a logjam in slow hitters with Lind, Snider, Ruiz and Overbay.  Dopirak would be in that group too if he makes it.  The prospect of an outfield of Lind, Snider and Wells with Ruiz at DH would be a big negative for the Jays.  So one of these guys has to go and the Jays have to get more athletic and defensive minded.

If a speedster is needed, the team may have just to combine the need for speed with that for position players. From another post at batterbox,

Right now, McCoy is playing for Culiacan in Mexico where he's hitting .347/.472/.472 with three doubles, two homers and four RBI.  He's also stolen eight bases in 10 tries and he continues to walk more than he has struck out with a BB-K total of 15-12. 

Mike McCoy seems to be that solution for a speedy shortstop who had proven for basestealling. Similarly, for outfielders, according to free agent list at MLB.com, we have the following speedy outfielder free agents who has stolen bases consistently:

Mike Cameron R/R (birthday: Jan 8, 1973;, will be aged 37 at the openning of 2010 season, will age be a factor?)

Dewayne Wise L/L (birthday: Feb 24,1978; 32)

Scott Podsednik L/L (birthday: March 18, 1976; 34)

Jerry Owens L/L (Feb 16, 1981; 29)

Joey Gathright L/R (April 27, 1981; 29)

Reed Johnson R/R (Dec 8, 1976; 33)

Rocco Baldelli R/R (Sept 25, 1981; 28)

Endy Chavez L/L (Feb 7, 1978; 32)

Coco Crisp S/L (Nov 1, 1979; 30)

Personally I disgarded Chavez and Gathright due to the hitting inability throughtout seasons of MLB (we have enough bench players in JBautista, Ingett and possibly JMac returning, we don't need another one; so in my opionion consitent performance but not necessarily allstar is the keyword) Owens has been up and down in the minors and MLB (last season in Seattle AAA: .323/.390/.418; 23 stolen bases in 31 tries); it seems he needs bits more seasoning. Some posters here mentioned Cameron who seems to be a good choice; Will he cost a fortune to come to T.O.? Similar scenerios for Johnson, Podsednik, Crisp and Baldelli (my personal choice);

Wise is in the middle of the everything; shown consistency in basestealling in the minors and MLB, able to play all three outfield positions, doesn't cost a lot because of his relatively few MLB exposures, hits better than Chavez and Gathright but not in the calibre of Cameron, Baldlelli and Crisp, a former Jays farm system product like Johnson.

So my opinion is:

1) getting a player from the group of Cameron, Johnson, Crisp, Baldelli and Podsednik

2) putting Owens under the scouting radar. (Buck Coats is similar to Owens, so we can have either one of them, Coats is more than a year younger and has shown better power numbers; Owens gets on base more consistently)

Mylegacy - Thursday, November 12 2009 @ 09:08 PM EST (#208354) #
What's with all this love for McCoy? The guy is 28 and has never been given a serious sniff by any team he's played for - his NUMBERS look GOOD. At his age with good speed and good numbers you'd think he'd have got a serious look see - if not - his defense MUST be seriously suspect.
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