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Courtesy of John Northey.


I found the following information about payrolls and exchange rates:

Year Amount in US$ Exchange
Canadian $
2007 $81,942,800 0.8650 $94,731,561
2006 $71,915,000 0.8533 $84,278,683
2005 $45,719,500 0.8232 $55,538,751
2004 $50,017,000 0.7633 $65,527,316
2003 $51,269,000 0.6791 $75,495,509
2002 $76,864,333 0.6252 $122,943,591
2001 $76,896,000 0.6350 $121,096,063
2000 $46,363,332 0.6874 $67,447,384

These figures are based on opening day payrolls and on the exchange rate at the end of the first business day of April.

We can quickly see that Gord Ash's last year and JP's first were amazingly expensive in Canadian dollars at $120+ million (yikes!) Given our dollar is now at or above par ($1 Canadian = $1.0156 US as of the 9th of October) the Jays suddenly have much more payroll room. Does this mean a $125 million payroll (what the Can$ amount in 2002 would be in US dollars based on today's exchange rate) is in the near future?

To know this we must compare the sources of revenue in 2001 and those of today. 2001 was the first season Rogers owned the Jays. They did not own SkyDome/Rogers Centre, from which 100% of the revenues are in Canadian dollars. They were getting very poor ratings for games, but today can get over a quarter of a million viewers. All those revenues are also in Canadian dollars. And since Rogers owns the TV station showing most games, they get an immediate benefit in increased ad rates if the Jays do well. MLB provides a chunk of change to the Jays in US dollars (now worth less) via TV revenues (about $14 million and stable since 2001, plus non-Canadian international, which one has to assume has grown in the Ichiro era), internet revenues (mentioned in many areas as growing very quickly), and merchandise revenues (shared by all teams and supposed to be as big as the US TV revenues). The net effect of this is that US revenue has to have climbed 57% since '01 to match those levels, which seems reasonable to assume given the spending spree we've seen US teams on lately (internet revenue seen as the big key here). So, in 2008, the Jays should have significantly more cash available (and potentially available) than they did in 2001, thus making it reasonable to assume they can spend just as much in Canadian dollars as they did then.

The Jays were around $82 million in '07, which included $13 million for Hinske, Koskie, Ohka, Thomson, Phillips and Towers, all of whom will be hunting for jobs this winter. Doing reasonable estimates for what to expect in arbitration for Rios (7), Hill (3), Johnson (4), Frasor (1) and Downs (2), plus 500k each for the kids who have to take whatever the Jays offer, I'd estimate the base payroll for 26 players to be at $87 million or, after factoring in bonus money which officially is spread over the whole contract, $99 million.

The shift in currency suggests that the Jays could have from $26 to $38 million available for the 2008 budget. Possibly more, as our dollar is expected to keep rising (Canada paying off debt, US going deeper into debt, resources going through the roof, US interest rates dropping while ours are not...). Now, who could be on the market for about $25-$30 million who could help the Jays? I know I have one player in mind who would eat that much, fill an ugly offensive hole in the lineup (assuming he can still play short), and weaken one of the two teams ahead of the Jays in the division. This winter the Jays could make a major splash with the potential to add 10+ wins and shift from also-ran to division title contender. Could it happen? Guess we'll see.
Pinch Hit: Why The Jays Could Have A $125 Million Payroll, aka, The Effect of the Canadian Dollar | 24 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#175203) #
The moment I read the title of this thread that same name jumped to mind. What a coup it would be to have him on board! I can see the Jays spending a fair bit of cash, but the thing is I can't see them spending that cash for so many years - evidently it would take a 7+ year deal to lure A-Rod here. Just gotta hope the silly "Mine" incident doesn't prevent us from getting him on the team. I suppose I know it's impossible he'll join us, but at the same time I have to hope...

Either way, nice article. It will be interesting to see what we do with the extra cash - JP may have just spent the last 2 months posturing with his "we're doing nothing this offseason" statements. Remember the line about BJ's back - "it isn't a lie if we (the front office) know the truth."
Jdog - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#175204) #

A quick comment from me:

I would rather eat cow manure for an entire week than see Alex Rodriguez playing for the Blue Jays.

Matthew E - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#175205) #
Jdog: I would rather feed it to you than see John McDonald as the regular again.
R Billie - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#175206) #

I think it really depends on how much of the Jays' revenue currently comes through in US versus Canadian dollars.  The gate receipts and merchandising is just a portion of revenue.  If most of the revenue is in US dollars anyway then the exchange rate doesn't matter as much.

That said, I do think the Jays do have the room to spend some significant money if they so choose.  It's possible the low-key statements about the off-season are to prevent disappointment if something doesn't happen.  The last couple of years it seems the Jays made it very public that they had a certain amount of money available and that in turn put a lot of pressure on them to spend that money and possibly overpay a few people.

I think flying under the radar could allow them to be a little more clandestine and selective.  At least that's the hope.  This team seems on the cusp of breaking through if two or three of the right pieces are added to the mix and the existing pieces rebound or develop.

Original Ryan - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#175207) #
It's quite likely that the team has done some currency hedging, so depending on how much they did and at what rate(s) they locked themselves in at, that would also affect how much they've been able to benefit from the rise in the Canadian dollar.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#175208) #
Barry Bonds fills an even bigger offensive hole in that he simply wears out RHP, something this team sorely needs.

.283/.486/.587 vs RHP 2007

Sure ARod plays better defense, but he also costs double the price and 10 times the length. You bring back Reed to backup the inevitable off days Barry takes and to give Vernon/Alex days off during the week. Reed would get his time, probably start 70-80 games and see late defensive action in the majority of them. The bench (as of now) would be Johnson Stairs Adams Thigpen Olmedo. And the real beauty with Bonds is that you only need to make a 1 year commitment to him, as opposed to guaranteeing a ridiculous load of cash. I think it's an intriguing idea.
AWeb - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#175209) #
Another thing the extra payroll room allows a team to do is consider taking on the salary dumps of others. Perhaps Boston wants to get rid of Manny, or Colorado still wants to move Helton (although that appears less likely now)? Of course, those guys would have to agree to come here, which is unlikely, but both would be short-term upgrades.

Another player to consider, in the event of Torre getting the boot in New York, would be Posada. If he's willing to come to Toronto, then give it a shot. I like Zaun, and don't think catcher is a major priority for improvement, but trying acquiring elite players is how the Jays need to improve. And yes, Posada would be overpaid coming off a career year as a 35 year old catcher, but extra profit for Rogers isn't winning any games for the Jays.

Other Free agents that money could be spent on: Adam Dunn (although his defense is apparently so bad it almost negates his offense), Abreu, Nathan, Rivera (trade from current BP strength?).

ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#175210) #
Good point about Bonds - He would probably even have a similar effect to Arod on the team's gate and television revenue.
greenfrog - Wednesday, October 10 2007 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#175211) #
I initially liked the idea of the Jays' signing Bonds for a year, but aren't prosecutors still going after him for tax evasion or perjury charges? That would put a huge damper on his (and his team's) season next year.
92-93 - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#175212) #
I think Barry's play has pretty much shown to be immune to media scrutiny. I also suspect, as pointed out, that his presence may pay for itself via the gate. There's no question he's a draw, and he would also actually make the team much better. Averaging 5,000 more fans a game might be a realistic expectation?
Barry Bonnell - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#175213) #
A couple years ago the Giants came to Toronto for a 3 game series and the attendance was mediocre. Clemens couldn't bring in fans and neither will Bonds. Winning will.
andrewkw - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#175214) #
if anything Bonds would have a negative impact on attendance as a lot of people would have a hard time cheering for him.
ANationalAcrobat - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#175216) #
The Giants were 5th in road attendence last year, behind only the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mets. That's not because of Barry Zito, Matt Cain, or Tim Lincecum either. It's Barry. He draws crowds and the media circus surrounding him would be great for the Jays financially.
ANationalAcrobat - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#175217) #
And in case anyone wants to point out that the Pirates were 6th, the Giants are consistently at the top in terms of road attendance, whereas teams like the Pirates have freak years. The Giants were in 2001: 1st, 2002: 3rd, 2003: 3rd, 2004: 3rd, 2006: 7th, 2007: 5th. The year Barry sat out, 2005, the were 12th. Barry draws crowds.
Mylegacy - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#175218) #

Reality check girls... no ARod no Barryoids. Having said that I'd take both thank you.

JP thinks (as do I) that this team as presently constituted, if even REASONABLY healthy (13 surgeries geeze give us a break!) could win it. The only offensive doubt JP and I share is Glaus. Girls, get used to it; Johnny Mac will be the number one SS and with our pitching 1 through 13 and our hitting 1 through 8 this is a championship quality team. I've felt for at least the last 5 years that our "window" was not 2006 - 2009 but more realistically 2008 - 2010.

Only two things can change our doing little this off-season. One; Glaus' foot looks like it isn't going to come around (excellent chance this might happen). Two; the operation on Wells fixed one problem but didn't remove the "cysts" in his neck/shoulder becasue they were too close to some nerves. If this looks to be a problem JP could make a move.

When I met JP jogging down on Queen's Quay the other day I said to him, "Hey bro." he said to me "You speakin' to me? You speakin' to me?" I countered "Ya bozo, why don't ya pick up that stud from the Spankies what plays third an' is gonna be a free agent?" JP stopped jogging, bent over beside me and took a few deep breaths, "Trust me man, that dude is many things, but a FREE agent he ain't." Then he gave me a cold hard stare and while making a fist with his left hand he wispered in my ear, "Mylegacy, we don't need no stinkin' Yankees. We gonna win it all."

What can I say. I got all goosebumpy and right there, right then, I became a believer.

Chuck - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#175220) #
Queen's Quay is in Jonestown?
ANationalAcrobat - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#175230) #
Big news: John Schuerholz stepping down.
timpinder - Thursday, October 11 2007 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#175232) #
It doesn't sound like the Jays will be making any big moves this winter, especially not for A-Rod or Bonds.  But since this is a hypothetical discussion, if they were to sign a bat, I'd love to see Abreu here.  His lefthanded swing would fit nicely into the lineup and would break up the righthanders (Rios-Wells-Abreu-Glaus-Thomas-Overbay-Hill-Zaun-McDonald).  Lind looks like he might be ready, but it's better to be safe than sorry and Lind could be a great 4th outfielder/pinch hitter and even DH against the toughest righties.
ScottTS - Friday, October 12 2007 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#175259) #

if they were to sign a bat, I'd love to see Abreu here. 

As long as we're dreaming, what would it take to pry Carl Crawford away from Tampa? They've got a whole lot of talented outfielder, and not enough places to play them all...

John Northey - Monday, October 15 2007 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#175294) #
Finally, my *#&^! machine is letting me post a comment after my own story (been a weird week that way).

The major point I was trying to make is the Jays do have the ability now to be a major player and to have a payroll that is competitive with Boston (no one is in the Yankees league). Last year only Boston and NYY were above $116 million (Mets at $115, with LAA, ChiSox, Dodgers, Seattle at the 100-110 range according to USA Today).

What does this mean? If we hear JP claim the Jays cannot afford player XYZ feel free to call him a McGuinty (just had to mix in a political joke). The Jays can afford any player they want now. They have the potential for tv revenue far beyond virtually any teams imagining with nearly exclusive access to 30 million viewers. They have a dollar which is rising fast and shows no sign of stopping (predictions of $1.10 are out there now). A fan base which is notorious for being bandwagonners thus a big incentive to push the team to the playoffs (far more to be gained by spending $1 than the Red Sox or Yankees have).

A-Rod has always been my dream to see at SS, but Bonds in LF is something that actually makes a lot of sense. Mix with Johnson for defense and vs the odd lefty for a day off, DH once in awhile to give Thomas a day off. Lind does not look close to ready with his 238/278/400 line thus a one year deal could make a lot of sense for everyone, as long as conditions on ability to play in Canada are included in case he is charged in the states with anything.

Looking at the potential free agents I see few who are worth the big bucks and I'd much rather see the Jays take a shot at a big gun than at getting a batch of average guns. When a big gun has a bad year they are still above average. When an average gun has a bad year they suck. You can win with your big gun at less than 100% but if you have a batch of average guys you're doomed to 3rd place forever (as we've seen all too well).
Frank Markotich - Monday, October 15 2007 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#175295) #
If we hear JP say he can't afford player XYZ, it means he wasn't given authorization by ownership. Ricciardi doesn't set the team's budget.
John Northey - Monday, October 15 2007 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#175298) #
Argh. Tried a 'replay to this post' but it didn't work again.

True, JP does not set the budget. I guess we should blast Rogers and Godfrey then if they claim they cannot afford it.

The figures given in the past for the Canadian dollars' effect on the Jays has ranged from (when going down) $1 million per cent to (when climbing) $400k. Using those figures the 40 cent climb our dollar has enjoyed since 2002 (wow) would be worth between $16 and $40 million. The 16 cents it has climbed since April of this year is worth between $6.4 and $16 million. Since the Jays showed a strong willingness to spend $100 million+ this season (no one wanted their money though) it is safe to say the 2008 budget has to be at least $106 million and most likely a lot higher if the right situation arises. Given between $87 and $99 million spent already the Jays should have (based on the above) $7-$19 million easily available for new players and up to $29 million potentially out there.
John Brattain - Monday, October 15 2007 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#175305) #
As long as we're dreaming, what would it take to pry Carl Crawford away from Tampa? They've got a whole lot of talented outfielder, and not enough places to play them all...

That would be my No. 1 off season wish. Personally, I'd rather have Crawford than Bonds or A-Rod because it would make the whole lineup more potent by keeping opposing defenses on, well, the defensive and making pitchers' lives miserable.

I've seen that Oedipus Complexing child of unmarried parents one of which was a female canine make everybody on the Jays' miserable: pitcher, catcher, infielders. It's be almost like having Tim Raines back in Canada.

Then again, since he's not playing against Toronto, that would drop his numbers to Johnny Mac levels.

Yeah, I'd like to see that severe glutial discomfort playing for the Jays.

Best Regards

ScottTS - Tuesday, October 16 2007 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#175322) #

That would be my No. 1 off season wish. Personally, I'd rather have Crawford than Bonds or A-Rod because it would make the whole lineup more potent by keeping opposing defenses on, well, the defensive and making pitchers' lives miserable.

Exactly.  He's perfect for the Jays -left-handed,some power,  plays left field, gets on base. He'd actually *improve* the Jay's already stellar defense as well. Not to mention being young and improving.

Unfortunately,  I suspect that Tampa would ask for (at a minimum) Dustin McGowan in return. If they're smart. I just don't see J.P making that deal.

Pinch Hit: Why The Jays Could Have A $125 Million Payroll, aka, The Effect of the Canadian Dollar | 24 comments | Create New Account
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