Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Draft day is here.  This years first round draft choices appear to be the most uncertain in several years.  A few years ago, Jim Callis of Baseball America was able to predict the first thirteen or so picks of the first round.  This year the picks, once you get past the top three, are a guessing game.  The talent level for picks from 4 to 40 is supposed to be very even, which should help the Jays.  This year they have seen the top players ten or more times instead of three times.  They should have more information than other teams and so should be able to make more educated selections.  The fun begins at 7:00.  There will be 50 players drafted tonight.  The Jays will select four of them at 11; 34, 38; and 41.  We will update this thread with the picks as they happen.

UPDATE:  Shocker!  Washington selects the former artist known as catcher Bryce Harper, outfielder Bryce Harper of the College of Southern Nevada first overall.

  1. Washington - Bryce Harper, OF, College of Southern Nevada.
  2. Pittsburgh - Jameson Taillon, RHP, Woodlands HS, Texas.
  3. Baltimore - Manny Machado, SS, Brito Harper HS, Florida.
  4. Kansas City - Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton.
  5. Cleveland - Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi.
  6. Arizona - Barret Loux, RHP, Texas A&M.
  7. New York Mets - Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina.
  8. Houston - Delino DeShields, Jr., OF, Woodward Academy, Georgia.
  9. San Diego - Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, Florida.
  10. Oakland - Michael Choice, OF, Texas-Arlington.



11.  Toronto - Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech.

 

The Jays take right-handed pitcher Deck McGuire from Georgia Tech with the 11th overall pick.


Baseball America says William "Deck" McGuire is a 6-foot-6, 218 pound pitcher from Virginia.  They say he throws a fastball in the 90-92 MPH range that can touch 94 along with a curveball, a slurve and an average to fringe-average changeup.  He projects to be a number three or four pitcher in a starting rotation and is described to be an excellent competitor with composure and durability.  BA says McGuire doesn't have a lot of life on his fastball and adds he hasn't been the same pitcher since pitching in last season's ACC playoffs when Southern Miss torched him for nine runs on two days rest.  However, John Manuel's blog points out the pick makes sense for Toronto as he cites McGuire's ability to throw four pitches for strikes and his ability to throw downhill. 

The 2009 ACC Pitcher of the Year was 11-2 with a 3.50 earned run average with the Yellow Jackets last season and posted a K-BB total of 118-41 in 100 1/3 innings.  This season, the first team All-ACC selection won 9 of 13 decisions with a 2.96 ERA and put up a K-BB ratio of 118-33 in 112 2/3 innings but also allowed 13 homers.  McGuire has been the Friday starter, or ace, for the Yellow Jackets the last two seasons.  Over the weekend, he pitched eight innings to help Georgia Tech beat Alabama 5-2 in the Atlanta Regionals of the NCAA Tournament.  He allowed just two runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out six.  Alabama shorstop Josh Rutledge had this to say about McGuire's performance:

He was throwing a fastball, probably in the low 90's, and he was just spotting it up real well.  He threw the left-handers a lot of change-ups and the right-handers more curveballs.  He was just having good control all night, so it was tough to hit him.

McGuire will turn 21 years old on June 23.  The junior righty has compiled a 28-7 record in his three seasons at Georgia Tech with a 3.28 ERA and a 306-106 K-BB mark in 291 innings.  The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says he wants to make amends for his rough start in the post-season last year.


34.  Toronto - Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Barstow HS, California

38.  Toronto - Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Legacy HS, Texas

Click here for video.

41.  Toronto - Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel


Some early reactions (thanks for various h/t):

John Sickels: "Very pitching heavy, with a nice mixture, two college arms (McGuire, Wojciechowski) who should move fast and two high schoolers (Sanchez, Syndergaard) who will need more time but have great upside. Extra letters for uniform names might be a budget hassle."

Keith Law: Syndegaard pick was crazy - I can't believe he went on day one, nice body, some arm strength, arm works well, no polish, no second pitch. They went all slot guys on the first day. Wojo was good value, but not an upside guy. McGuire was safe. Sanchez was the one day one pick I really liked, and Hawkins was a sleeper for me today, but I really expected them to swing more for the fences on Monday night.


 

2010 Draft - Day One | 142 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
robertdudek - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#216462) #
MLB.com has the preview show on now. They will broadcast the draft live starting at 7 PM.

Looks to me like Bryce Harper has "the good face".

sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#216463) #
They just showed a shot of the Blue Jays draft room on the MLB network. You can see AA explaining something on the draft board to Beeston, I wonder what...
Sano - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#216464) #
Why he (Beeston) needs to start getting ready to sign a big cheque for the #11 pick hopefully.
Pistol - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#216465) #
KLaw says that the Royals will go with Colon.  That should shake things up a bit.
Spifficus - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#216466) #
The announced Harper as an OF. I'm so torn...
sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#216467) #
Does this draft remind anyone of Josh Hamilton, Josh Beckett. Generational talent at #1 and power righty from Texas at #2
Shane - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#216468) #
Kevin Goldstein over at Prospectus is doing a chat and just said of Delino Deshields: "Toronto would love to get him at 11, he's not getting to 15."
Spifficus - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#216469) #
Colon at #4 makes things interesting, especially if Grandel goes at #5. I wonder who this might cause to slide.
Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#216470) #
It could just be a swap: Colon to KC, Pomeranz to CLE. Not much changed.
Wildrose - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#216471) #

I find it interesting that Taillon has Canadian citizenship, his parents were born in Ontario and are both  U. of T grads. Perhaps the WBC in 2013? 

 

Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#216472) #
and it was just that. let's hope ARI goes for a reach.
Spifficus - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#216473) #
Yeah. Good call. There are so many chats going for the draft I'm behind in keeping the rumors straight.
Chuck - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#216474) #

Looks to me like Bryce Harper has "the good face".

Not when he's wearing all that black goop. He looks like a bizarre video game character.

Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#216475) #
This looks very interesting. Mets take Harvey, leaves both Sales, O'Conner, Cox, Choice and Whitson. With Houston on DeShields, means we'll get someone from the middle of top ten!
Sano - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#216476) #
Certainly does look interesting now.  Now AA has a tougher decision, who to take out of all the quality available?
sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#216477) #
Ya it looks like that at least one of Cox, Sale, and Choice will be available at our pick.
Helpmates - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#216478) #
Whew...I'm glad DeShields is off the board...I was worried we were going to snag him.
Gerry - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#216479) #

The Jays have been very quiet.  I wouldn't be surprised if they surprised everyone here.

Pistol - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#216480) #
Deck McGwire is a bit of a surprise for me.  Thought it was going to be Sale, or Cox if they were ambitious.

It's not exactly the most inspiring pick (FB with little movement?), but it might be more of a reflection of the poor draft class that the Jays took a lower risk player at this point.  Or that they have to pay a lot of players (can't they hit up Bob Elliot for $16 million?).

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=8080130&content_id=7189157

http://www.boydsworld.com/cgi/pitchers.pl?player=Deck+Mcguire&style=Contains&submit=Search&team=any

Chris DH - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#216481) #

Not sure that this is a true signability pick - Deck McGuire was ranked 7th by Baseball America and MLB Bonus Baby and ranked 9th by PNR Scouting.  And 13th by Keith Law/ESPN.

Perhaps surprised as there was at least one article out there today that had Andrew Tinnish suggesting the Jays will target high school players.  Well, at least not in the first round!

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/6/7/1506194/1-11-toronto-blue-jays-deck

ramone - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#216482) #
I feel very underwhelmed by the Mcguire pick, profiles as a fast rising 3 or 4 starter.
Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#216483) #
From Law: "Low-upside but very fast to the majors starter -- one GM told me his staff felt McGuire was a No. 4 but would be the fastest starting pitcher to the majors in this draft. This really frees Toronto up to go after the high-ceiling athletes they say they want in this draft."

I don't really get why they'd take him. It's not like the Jays need another mid-rotation starter. Unless they don't really believe in any of the bats but I find it hard to believe that they don't like any of them as much as this kid. I have to say I'm a bit disappointed.

2 more comments for those who haven't seen them yet:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2308
http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/6/7/1506194/1-11-toronto-blue-jays-deck
Gerry - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#216484) #

McGuire has a big frame and a pitchers body and it sounds like he has a decent fastball with the oppoerunity to add a few mph to it.  The Jays have a good track record of improving or adding breaking ball pitches.  They might work on a cutter or a change up and if he has the fastball as a base he could be a different guy when he hits the majors.

I hope he signs before August 15.

PeteMoss - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#216485) #
The Jays have a ton of picks.... perhaps they felt McGuire was the best pitching value they were going to find and he wouldn't last until their later picks but feel the hitters may slide.

Tall pitchers like him can develop later as well... not really that concerned. Seemed like he was picked in the right spot... wasn't a signability thing or anything.
Spifficus - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#216486) #

I had sort of forgotten about McGuire, given all the talk of 70-80 level tools. I like the different reports on his slider (some have it as plus) and his change-up (which others say is his best pitch), as well as his command.

Hayden Simpson. Huh. Now that's a surprise pick.
greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#216487) #
Don't forget, Romero was also seen as a safe, if unexciting, pick on the fast track to the majors.

I can't say I'm thrilled with the McGuire pick but it's so hard to predict how these players will develop, especially in a draft that apparently lacks some depth. My guess is the Jays liked his size, control, makeup, and good command of three pitches, all of which counts for a lot. Maybe they feel that he can improve his fastball and other pitches with some proper coaching? In any case, I have a lot of faith in AA and his front office team after the strong moves they made in the off-season.
China fan - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#216488) #

I know I shouldn't be questioning the standard terminology of professional baseball scouts, but I don't really understand how it can be useful to say that someone "projects as a No. 3 type pitcher."  What does that even mean?  There's obviously a massive difference between the No. 3 pitcher on a team like Tampa or Toronto, and a No. 3 pitcher on a team with a poor rotation.   On a pitching staff like Tampa's, a No. 3 pitcher would be the ace of almost any other rotation.  And it's obviously quite possible for a "projected as No. 3 type pitcher" to become the ace of a staff.  Ricky Romero was projected as a No. 3 type pitcher, and he's now racking up ace-type numbers with 2 complete games, 86 strikeouts vs 33 walks, and an ERA of 3.06.   To say that someone "projects as a No. 3 type pitcher" smacks of pseudo-scientific pretentiousness that's more misleading than useful.  It implies that you can be precise in predicting a pitcher's career trajectory, when history shows that it's pretty much a crapshoot.....

Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#216489) #
I am disappointed. Cox, Sale and Grandal were all on the board. McGuire's numbers aren't overwhelming, and it's a bit strange to take a collegiate pitcher with the #11 pick based on projection.  It might work out, of course, but I do feel that money had a fair bit to do with it. 
TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#216490) #
The only thing I can do with this pick is trust that the Jays think there's a higher ceiling here than others do. i agree with the analysis that just as far as organizational need, a fast-arriving mid-rotation RHP doesn't SEEM like a priority.

Even though you don't draft to need, and you take the best available guy, I think it only makes sense to be mindful of your organizational depth in terms of breaking ties between similarly promising guys.

As such, I'm asked to believe that McGuire has a higher ceiling than any other (signable) guy still on the board...which I guess I'll have to take their word for.

I don't HATE the pick - but I'm not all a-twitter about it either.


Otherwise, I don't know what the HELL some of these other teams are thinking. Skole? Simpson??

Kelekin - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#216491) #
I'm not going to judge this pick until we see the other 3 picks we make tonight, but I would've liked to see us take one of the Sale kids.  It's a surprise they both fell out of the top 10, but either way, this pick might not be that bad.  At least he's not Andrew Liebel, but I would say his college stats aren't all that inspiring. 
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#216492) #
In my case, by "projection", I mean that McGuire's current stuff is not likely to be good enough for him to be an effective major league starting  pitcher, let alone a star.  Romero had significantly better stuff and performance numbers than McGuire as a collegian.
aaforpm - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#216493) #
I agree.  I feel betrayed.  All of this talk about high ceiling players and we pick a number 3/4 starter....because we don't have enough of those and we know how that's going to help us beat CC, Lester, and Price.  Even if we pick high ceiling guys later on, this is where we had our best shot at a good one and we wasted it on another average player.  This stinks of the JP era and it depresses the hell out of me. 

I think it's worth noting that the Rays took Josh Sale at 17......he was my recommendation for the Jays' pick at #11.  These are the sort of risks that the Rays take that allow them to build a contender while we continue to shoot for that .500 mark. 



jmoney - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#216494) #
Actually the Rays built a contender on a plethora of top 3 picks, but whatever.
Moe - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#216495) #
I don't know. I agree, take the best available guy. The only thing I can think of is that the Jays consider him a sure thing and hence he'd have a the least solid trade value.

I get Cox is going to cost a lot and might not be worth it, but why not take someone like Josh Sale?
greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#216497) #
Question: do you think the Jays would take James Paxton if he falls to them in the supplemental or second rounds?
Ozzieball - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#216498) #
This may be cognitive dissonance speaking, but McGuire seems like the type of pitcher the Jays have had a lot of success developing beyond their originally-projected ceiling.

Although Sale going to the Rays and Cox falling to the Red Sox is making me pull me hair out.

jmoney - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#216499) #
Guys smarter then me have said this draft is full of turds talent-wise so if the Jays pull out another guy like a Marcum or Cecil then I'm happy.

The Jays hired a lot of scouts and evaluators. I'm sure they're putting in the work.

Spifficus - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#216500) #
I've always envisioned a #3 starter as a solid-average starter. Someone who will most likely end up with ERA just below 4 (or ERA+ a couple points above 100) most years, with an average IP per start. Everyone might have a slightly different concept, but at least it gets them in the same discussion.

What makes the discussion shaky is that you have 32 teams, talking to 50+ scouts each, all of whom are going to have their own perspectives on what someone may become 5 or more years down the road on 1500 guys that might show different skill levels on different days. That's an insane margin of error but they have to all try to speak the same language. This is why they use grades (20-80 scale and verbal equivalents), most likely projection (IE, '#3 starter', '4th OF', 'middle of the order hitter') and direct comparable players. Just because it's a imprecise endeavor, though, doesn't mean it's not necessary.

Foltynewicz. Huh. This year is wonderfully crazy.
aaforpm - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#216501) #
jmoney..

You make a good point.  But I stand by my argument for taking risks with your EARLY PICKS because I feel that that's our best chance to land a real winner
TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#216502) #
Welp. There goes Deglan.
Chris DH - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#216503) #

There must be a reason McGuire was ranked in the top 10 of the various publications.  Scouting reports state that he doesnt have a huge ceiling but has a much higher floor than most players.  It also appears his fastball has lost a couple MPH in velocity from a year or two ago and if it returns he could be a #2 starter.

I am not overly excited with this pick but not sure I would have been overly thrilled with 2B-3B Cox (limited power potential), OF J.Sale (limited to corner) or LHP Chris Sale (might be relegated to bullpen).  All these guys have question marks.

As others have suggested - the Jays know better than I, and, I will wait to hold "judgement" until the end of the night.  Looking forward to the next 3 picks!

 

greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#216504) #
Deglan off the board.
Gerry - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#216505) #

Per John Lott the Jays had a lot of looks at McGuire.

The Toronto Blue Jays sent a dozen scouts to watch Deck McGuire pitch this year, and every one agreed he was worth the risk of a top draft pick.

So on Monday night, the Jays made the big right-hander from Georgia Tech their first-round selection, and No. 11 overall, in the annual amateur draft.

“Everybody had strong feelings for this player,” said first-year scouting director Andrew Tinnish. “There was a comfort level across the board from our entire group.”

One of the key scouts following McGuire was Eric McQueen, a Georgia Tech alumnus and former player for the Yellow Jackets. New general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who quickly beefed up the Jays scouting staff when he took over last October, also saw McGuire pitch.

A 6-foot-6, 218-pound right-hander, McGuire has a fastball in the low 90s and a power slider. Scouts say he has excellent command and a good feel for his changeup..

jmoney - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#216506) #
I get what you're saying aaforpm but the Jays didn't take a guy off the board. He was a top ten guy. They probably scouted the hell out of him and if he becomes a Marcum with a 93-94mph heater then I'd say they got the best player available.
jmoney - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#216507) #
Keith Law is hilarious. That cubs pick is the doozy of the first round.

keithlaw
@bhindepmo Last time a scout mentioned Simpson to me was March. 2 minutes ago via web

Schad - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#216508) #
McGuire has solid control, but he isn't close to Marcum in that regard. He should be a useful #4 (possible #3) starter, but with Josh Sale looking for a bonus in the same ballpark, that's thoroughly underwhelming.
Mylegacy - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#216509) #
McGuire was not on my list - maybe he'd be a pick at 38 not 11.

I'm not happy - I'd MUCH RATHER had had Josh Sale - by a WIDE margin. Even guys like Covey and Cowart and Wimmers I'd pick over him. His FB is just too straight - too hitable and only just fast enough. I VASTLY prefer Jenkins, Cecil and Romero to this pick - I'm not a happy camper.

 Nonetheless - our scouts must know something I don't - I hope!

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#216510) #
Got a whole Hall of Names thing happening in that first 10 picks shown on Da Box front page. There has never been a big league ballplayer with the first name Jameson, Barret or Karsten; only one Bryce (Florie), and just the one previous Delino (the draftee DeShields' daddy, of course).

I'll scan the entirety of the draft later this week for the most interesting names. Point them out to me if you see something that rings a bell, HON-wise!

greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#216512) #
Apart from Snider, the Jays have been burned by HS hitters (Jackson, Ahrens, Eiland, Tolisano), whereas they've had a lot of success in developing college pitchers like Marcum, Romero, Cecil. So maybe they were going with what they know best - solid pitchers they feel confident they can make a notch or two better by improving their mechanics, teaching them a changeup or cutter, etc.
rtcaino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#216513) #
Not sure that this is a true signability pick - Deck McGuire was ranked 7th by Baseball America and MLB Bonus Baby and ranked 9th by PNR Scouting.  And 13th by Keith Law/ESPN.

These rankings aren't horrible. They certainly don't indicate he is as bad of a prospect as some posters are suggesting.
Schad - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#216514) #
Sale isn't one of those raw-as-hamburger guys, though...Seiler had him as the most-polished high school hitter in the draft, over Harper. Absolutely beautiful swing; I have no doubt that he's going to be an above-average hitter in the bigs.
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#216515) #
By the way, I really like Manny Machado.  I know that the O's have been underwhelming this season, but their time is coming.  There is very little prospect that the AL East will be less competitive in 3 years than it is now. 
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#216516) #
Pistol adverted to the possibility that the Jays preferred to take a low risk pick in a poor draft.  It is a bit strange to do that with the choice at #11 because of the compensation rules in the event of non-signing. 
TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#216517) #
the reservation I had about Sale was that he was described as a Snider clone. As much as I love me some Snider, it doesn't seem that attractive to have two guys just alike on your team, especially if both have defensive limitations.

I'd have taken him in the right circumstance but I'm not bothered by passing either.


Schad - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#216518) #
the reservation I had about Sale was that he was described as a Snider clone. As much as I love me some Snider, it doesn't seem that attractive to have two guys just alike on your team, especially if both have defensive limitations.

I'd have taken him in the right circumstance but I'm not bothered by passing either.

You're never tied to a prospect, though...imagine the haul that a 20 year old Snider clone could get on the market in a couple years.
China fan - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#216519) #
Mike Green, I'm astonished by your blanket statement that McGuire is "unlikely" to be an effective major-leaguer. The Jays say they had 12 scouts who studied McGuire. I'm curious to hear your explanation of why we should believe you and not them.
sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#216520) #
I don't want to speak to soon, but the supplemental could really interesting between the Jays and Red Sox
Chris DH - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#216521) #

I actually read Josh Sale is nowhere near as advanced a hitter as Travis Snider was coming out of high school.

Update: BA had updated their top 50 today and McGuire was actually 9th moving down 2 spots.

Quite a few good players remaing and the Jays pick in 7.  OF Austin Wilson, OF Bryce Brentz, 3B Nick Castellanos, RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Stetson Allie, C-SS-RHP Justin O'Connor, RHP Anthony Renaudo, LHP James Paxton...

Ron - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#216522) #
There are kids being drafted that were born in 1992. Boy do I feel old. I almost want to yell out "Get Off My Lawn". We are not that far away from hearing kids say I grew up watching Shawn Marcum pitch.
greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#216523) #
Which Jays picks are left over from last year (meaning they have to sign the player or forfeit the pick)?
Mike Green - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#216524) #
That's not what I said, CF.  I said that by "projection", I mean that his current stuff is not that of an effective major league starter (though it might be the stuff of a middle reliever).  The name that I saw next to his name was "Scott Williamson", and that seemed to me to be a fair estimation of where he is roughly now.  He is obviously young enough, and has the build, that he could become much better. To give just one example, Tim Hudson was drafted in the sixth round, the A's helped him make some important changes to his delivery and he became a great starter in his pre-arb years. 

I would have had no issue at all with McGuire being taken in the supplemental round or the second round. 

TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#216525) #
Dang, there goes Bedrosian - that's three guys I was hot for off the board.


sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#216526) #
I wonder do the Jays draft Wilson if he gets to him? I think if the Jays don't draft him in the supplemental they don't think he'll sign... or they're just not that high on him I guess.
rtcaino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#216527) #
Which Jays picks are left over from last year (meaning they have to sign the player or forfeit the pick)?

From yesterday's thread: 38 (Paxton); 61 (2nd round); 69 (Eliopoulos); 113 (Barrett)

greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#216529) #
OK thanks
TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#216530) #
the way premium guys are dropping, I think you HAVE to use a protected pick on Wilson when you have three of the next 12 picks. Even if it's a massive long shot, i want us to be the ones who take it and not Boston or NY.

You can get something really nice with the other two at this point.



ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#216531) #
I'm thinking Sanchez, but I wouldn't mind AJ Cole or Stetson Allie.
TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#216532) #
I like Castellanos and Allie as well....kinda resigned to passing on Paxton since McGuire is in the fold, unless he drops down to the 80 or something
Shane - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#216533) #
Next pick getting close. What's everyone's guess? Who will Tinnish/AA draft??
sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#216534) #
This is huge. I'll be extremely happy with one of Jenkins, Ranuado, Wilson, Allie, Sanchez, or Cole.
Mike T - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#216535) #
he's a city boy, but deep in his heart he's a born cowboy. He's the "stetson" man.
rtcaino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#216536) #
I like Castellanos and Allie as well....

Ditto
robertdudek - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#216537) #
What are the chances that the Yankees draft pick Culver was named after a certain prominent manager in his heyday when Culver was born?
Mudie - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#216538) #
sanchez, wolters, cole, castellanos, lipka, wilson, allie, and jenkins are on my list
jmoney - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#216539) #
Lot of big names still on the board for the Jays.
Pistol - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#216540) #
These aren't your JP picks.

This is why you wait for the picks to come in.  If they were made in the opposite order there'd be no complaints I suspect.  A couple more could be interesting tonight.  Castellanos?
jmoney - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#216541) #
Law had Sanchez at 23 on his mock so he must be loving this Jay draft so far.
allcanadian34 - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#216542) #
What the heck!?! The freaking Red Sox are loading up with names in this draft. Making me sick.
Gerry - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#216543) #
I see the Jays have done a 180 degree turn on their draft strategy under Alex Anthopoulos.  The have switched from selecting left handed pitchers to selecting right handed pitchers.
Marc Hulet - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#216544) #
I rate the first four picks by the Jays a six out of 10... I'm mildly disappointed; I'd say they're sticking closer to playing it safe than really trying to make a splash... Hopefully Day 2 holds some interesting surprises.
greenfrog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#216545) #
BA: "The Jays have gotten four quality pitchers, with two collegians in Deck McGuire and Asher Woj, and two prep arms in Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez."
Pistol - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#216546) #
Not just RHPs, really tall RHPs.
Mike D - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#216547) #
Law had Sanchez at 23 on his mock

And he had Wojciechowski at 13.
Mylegacy - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#216548) #
Sanchez RHP, HS,  6'3" 175
Tall, skinny, good projection, FB 90-93 up to 95 - scouts think he could add 3 MPH, he has a projected plus curve, very athletic.

Noah Syndergaard RHP, Legacy HS (heck Mylegacy has got to like this guy!), 6'5" 200
Projectable, has major helium, #3 starter, FB 90-92 up to 94-95, has a future above ave curve, marginal changeup.

Asher Wojcieckski, RHP, University, 6' 4" 205
Durable, Team USA, exploded this spring, 2+ pitches, possible #2 or 3 starter, FB 93-95 up to 96, + slider, could be elite closer if changeup doesn't come around BUT scouts think his changeup will come around and he profiles best as a starter.

Man is Rzepczynski ever going to feel at home with these guys. Can you see Rzepczynski, Syndergaard and Wojciekski all pitching in the WS against the Phillies - wow - no question the Jays have the market on the Game of Scrabble.

Who'd a thunk we'd take four RHPer with our first four picks. Looks like Drabek, Alverez and Jenkins are gonna have some competition.

Ironically - I prefer all three of the above to Deck Chair - although I'm sure he'll be the first of these to make it to the Bigs.  Here's hoping I'm wrong about McGuire and we've got four guys with some "helium."


Kelekin - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#216549) #
Syndergaard wasn't even on BA's Top 200, so that came out of left field.  I am disappointed that we couldn't have at least tried getting Wilson, Allie, or Cole.

I am hoping the Jays are really planning to have a big 2nd day.  There were so many comments about how #4-40 was not a huge gap in talent, but yet some of the most talented of that bunch are still available.
sam - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#216550) #
I'm not too disappointed. I think the Jays filled an organizational need tonight: power pitching.

I guess the $16 million number is bogus. I think to reach that the Jays would have to draft and sign Wilson, Allie, and Cole or people with equal signing bonus demands.

We know the Jays have been on a lot of the top international prospects, maybe they feel like this year they're best investing amateur money in Latin America.
ayjackson - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#216551) #

Seiler's review of Syndergaard is very promising - as Mylegacy has alluded too.  He projected him as high as the supplemental round.  We have to remember that that pick was not protected, so for the Jays to find someone signable with as much upside as the kid seems to have, it's a good pick...maybe their best.  I'd love it if AJ Cole slipped down to our second rounder.

Think the Jays like the pitchers over the hitters in this draft?

Jdog - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#216553) #
I love internet baseball fans getting furious with draft picks they know nothing about, it should be included with death and taxes as the sure things in life.

And as for "at least trying to draft Wilson" Im sure the trying part comes in before when they talk to the player and figure out what kind of money he wants. If they think he's worth a million dollar bonus and he is asking for 3.5 there is no sense in wasting a draft pick, when there are lots of other players out there you may like just as much.

This was the most unpredictable first round I have seen for a long time, I think mainly due to a weak college hitting class

TamRa - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#216554) #
great, another line for the eyechart. I'm suddenly feeling the onset of a hangover here. this isn't the outcome i was excited for, even if these are great pitchers.

(will this work this time?)
Spifficus - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#216555) #
I'm fairly pleased with the Jays' first day. There was no blow you away pick, but for each of them, I came away thinking "Oh, that looks like a good pick." Syndergaard obviously is a special case because the pick was unprotected, but even with that considered, they got upside with him.
rtcaino - Monday, June 07 2010 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#216556) #
It would nice to get a couple of these guys into some games, if they have any innings left in those arms.
Moe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#216557) #
Syndergaard wasn't even on BA's Top 200, so that came out of left field.  I am disappointed that we couldn't have at least tried getting Wilson, Allie, or Cole.

I believe that was an unprotected pick so no risky choice. The other two in the supplemental round look fine to me -- but nothing that blows me away (although Law really likes Sanchez). I agree, Ranaudo, Brentz and Castellanos look like viable alternatives but are they that much better than Sanchez? Assuming the Sox would have picked Sanchez before the Jays 2nd turn (unprotected pick) they had to tke him if they prefer him over Brentz. Renaudo is too risky for the unprotected pick.

I agree McGuire (given his position) is my least favorite. However, short of taking a big gamble (e.g. Wilson), I'm not sure I have a much better idea -- especially given that I haven't seen any of these kids in person.

I think no. 11 was a bit of an unfortunate spot. Too high to just take a flyer and too low (just 1 or 2 spots) to get the no.1 choice. The Padres taking Whitson was a bit unexpected and a major bummer, imo.
 
Moe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#216558) #
Looking at the draft order for tomorrow I can't help but be a bit frustrated that the Jays got no. 80 from the Sox and the Sox picked up 20 and 57. Would be nice if the Angels had gotten 20 and the Jays 29. Of course, not as bad as last year with AJ but still. While the Jays are net winners of the compensation game in most years, the whole system seems so flawed, especially now with picks being this highly valued.

As an aside, I looked at the Elias ranking and it looks like the Jays might be able to get another big draft next year: Buck (B), Downs (A), Frasor and Gregg (B). It's still early of course but this would be almost perfect. B's don't stop anyone from signing the player and net a nice pick aound 30-40 and Downs should get a contract even as an A.



TamRa - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#216559) #
glad to see the board working again. My take so far:

McGuire - I like it. Whether or not he was my first choice, I can't argue with what I've seen about him.

Sanchez - fine by me, again, I'm clearly no scount but it seems like solid value at this point.

Syndergaard - Dunno anything about him, but said to be very signable and this is an unprotected pick so I defer to the front office here...my only quibble is that IF it was about signability, surely there was something other than a RHP who was signable here? But what the heck.

Wojo - sounds good but why in the heck must they give me these guys I have to copy and paste so much? In the abstract, my only real complaint here is in the context of the other three. IF he was the first or second SP they had drafted and they had got a guy this good at this slot, I'd be really happy.

Just kind of bummed about the monotony, which I admit is completely irrational.



ayjackson - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#216560) #
So AJ Burnett has become Jake Marisnick and Noah Syndergaard.
Moe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#216561) #
my only quibble is that IF it was about signability, surely there was something other than a RHP who was signable here? But what the heck.

I agree. In fact, it sounds like Wojo is an easy sign. So I wonder whether they could have taken him here and then taken a chance with Castellanos on the protected pick. And if Castellanos is gone, Syndergaard likely would still be there.


sam - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#216562) #
I hope all these guys sign and get some pro ball experience before the season starts.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#216563) #
Have to remember the value of a guys like Mcguire who are close to the majors... there are teams that would chop off their left arms to get a young cheap arm who will likely be ready in a year or two. You see guys like Jeff Suppan get a bazillion dollars and get released today by the Brewers and it shows the cost to get a below average innings guy in free agency.

You look at Mike Leake who most projected as a #3 starter who could move fast in the last year's draft and think about the haul the Reds could get if they moved him now. I'm not comparing the two guys... Leake was much more dominant in college and a much smaller guy... its not sexy but there is a ton of value in a guy like that.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#216564) #
Is there such a thing as a #2 ceiling? It's always potential frontline starter ace or #3 starter. Frankly I couldn't care any less about these labels, because to me a #3 means a potential ace who doesn't throw 94+. Let Alvarez, Jenkins, Drabek, and McGuire all develop into the type of "#3s" the current Jays are stuck with (Marcum, Romero, and Cecil) and I suspect there will be many happy people around these parts. I leave out Morrow because he gets the benefit of that huge ceiling because of the FB, but I am curious if anybody would prefer Morrow to Cecil if they had to choose between them today, ignoring age and service time issues - it would be an interesting poll question.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 01:52 AM EDT (#216565) #
I think no. 11 was a bit of an unfortunate spot. Too high to just take a flyer and too low (just 1 or 2 spots) to get the no.1 choice. The Padres taking Whitson was a bit unexpected and a major bummer, imo.

If you believe Tinnish, McGuire was there guy all along. Someone here speculated yesterday that the DeShields rumors might have been gamesmanship to flush out the Astros and increase the chance we got the guy we wanted.

It would never come out, if true, but it's fun to imagine. In any case, they hid their cards nicely (per AA's secrecy agenda)

85bluejay - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#216567) #

This draft seems reminiscent of the 1993 Jays draft when we had 8 picks in the 1st 3 rds (9 this time) including

1st rd & 3s (just as today) - Jays drafted Chris Carpenter(HS,#15),outfielder Matt Farner(HS,37),pitcher Jeremy

Lee(HS,40) and pitcher Mark Lukasiewicz (Juco,41) -of the 8 selections,only Carpenter had a ML career (alas

much of it  with st. Louis) -  I hope we have better luck this time.

Of  todays picks, I'm ok with the 3 supplemental picks, Deck would make JP proud , perhaps the

Jays will be able to tweak his delivery & make him a quality pitcher. Can't have too much pitching 

mendocino - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 03:38 AM EDT (#216568) #

Noah Syndergaard

"I can't wait," he said, "to be a Blue Jay."

Aaron Sanchez

“I was kind of expecting to go in the first round, but this is amazing. Getting picked by the Angels as a California kid would have been great, but everything happens for a reason. I just want to start playing.”

Sanchez will now have a busy month ahead of him. He said he will report to the Blue Jays camp in Dunedin, Fla. to sign his contract in the next two or three weeks, and he expects to start training by the end of the month.

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#216569) #

Sanchez was my pick at #34 the whole way. I really like his upside and projectability. He's got the total package with power stuff, good command, and a good breaking ball.

The other three? Meh, it could be worse, but it could be better. I like the fact they're all tall and project to be workhorses. #38 being only 17 (92 born) is kind of crazy actually. I would have just rathered more position players.

To be honest however we thought we had a tonne of pitchign depth already, but we're still forced to run Brian Tallet out every 5 days. Just shows I guess you can never actually have enough.

China fan - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#216570) #
Mike Green, I'm still baffled by your assessment of McGuire.  You seem to be an outlier on him -- you're the first person I've seen who mentions McGuire's name and "middle reliever" and "second round" in the same breath.  Can you try again to explain why you're so contrary on him?  Your only explanation, so far, is something about his current "stuff" -- but he is 20 years old (or call him "about to turn 21" if you prefer) and surely his "current stuff" is not what he'll have in 3 or 4 years.  I suppose there must be cases of young pitchers who fail to improve their basic stuff in the minors, but surely with coaching and experience it gets better, no?  So, if it's likely to improve, why are you fixated on describing his current stuff, as if he is limited to that?  Why are you suggesting that it might not improve and he could be a middle reliever who was better suited to the supplementary or second round?   Again, if I have somehow misinterpreted you, I apologize, but your choice of words seems pretty clear to me.  Although I must say that you have a tendency towards terse "voice of God" pronouncements which often don't provide much explanation or sourcing.
Moe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#216571) #
It seems the consensus here and elsewhere is that the Jays had a solid but not spectacular. The problem is that it seems the Red Sox and possibly Tampa had an even better one. The AL East curse -- you need to be great, just good isn't enough. Of course, ultimately, it will be a few years until we really know but I would have preferred a bit more of an aggressive plan with the 3 comp round picks. Take Sanchez if you prefer him over Brentz, that's fine. But then take Wojo with the next one and hope someone else (e.g. Castellanos) is still available. I somehow doubt Snydergaard is that hot of a commodity that he would be gone between 38 and 41 so you still have him as a backup. And maybe he would still be there for the next unprotected pick (69)
Sister - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#216572) #
Sickles seems to like the Jays draft:

Toronto - Up
Very pitching heavy, with a nice mixture, two college arms (McGuire, Wojciechowski) who should move fast and two high schoolers (Sanchez, Syndergaard) who will need more time but have great upside. Extra letters for uniform names might be a budget hassle.

budgell - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#216573) #
I wonder are we seeing the early days of some "Moneyball" strategy (exploiting market inefficiencies) from the AA regime.  We always here about teams "needing/never having enough" pitching.  Might the Jays see the stockpiling of young arms through drafts/trades as the way to compete in the east?  Maybe they think they are on to something (changeup?) in their handling of young pitchers and feel they can leverage the pitching largess to fill out the rest of the roster.
TamRa - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#216574) #
One of the ways that people evaluate a draft is how well a team did in the context of the pick they had available to them. The reason the Rays, for instance, are being praised has a lot more to do with the fact that Josh Sale slid so much further than expected than that they were "smart" enough to make the obvious choice when he arrived.

Likewise with the Red Sox, Brentz wasn't projected to fall out of the first round by most.

For me, when I evaluate my opinion of a teams effort, i'm looking at it like this - did the team leave a guy on the boar that I would have taken with a pick in this position, that I'd rather have than the guy we got?

For example - If I had rather have had Sale (either of them) than McGuire....and thought that player worthy of #11...then that's a strike against the choice. The fact that I'd like to have had Deglan, however, is not, because I wouldn't have considered him good value that high.

Neither is the fact that Wilson (for instance) wasn't taken because he's still available.

By that system, my take so far is reasonably favorable.Of the players taken between McGuire and Sanchez, there are only three i would have given serious consideration to at #11 - Cox who's price I didn't like, J Sale who is a bit too much like Snider for me to be really jazzed about (nothing against Snider, I just think the limited defense would be an issue if you have two of them) and C Sale - which I defer to the scouts when picking between pitchers.

That's not to say I'm jazzed about McGuire, I just don't see "one that got away" that really pisses me off.

None of the three between 34 and 38 phase me at all, even tipping my cap to Brentz; ditto between 38 and 41.

Finally, of the players from 42 to 50, their are a couple of pitchers - here again I have to defer to the scouts between Wojo and, for instance, Tago, and the one guy i really kind of had a buz for who got away here is Castellanos.

So all in all, as much as it seems kind of an odd outcome to me...I really am not looking at what any other team and saying "oh jeez why didn't we pick THAT guy?!"



Mike Green - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#216575) #
CF, the success rate on first round pitchers is much poorer than for first round position players.  It is actually a failing of scouting in general.  The problem is that pitchers develop much less predictably than position players (probably due to the increased importance of injury and its avoidance in development), and so a club is much better off picking pitchers in the second and third rounds.  McGuire might develop, Sanchez might develop, the others might develop, who knows?  On the other hand, I am reasonably confident that Cox, Sale and Grandal are likely to be solid major league players. 

I do not like this draft so far at all, for the simple reason that none of the pitchers is an obvious yes or even close to it, and it is, in my view, a gross error to take pitchers with one's first 4 picks.  I give it a 2 out of 10 so far.  I was not Ricciardi's biggest fan, but none of his drafts would have been less than 6, in my view. 

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#216576) #

I don't have a ton of issues with the players taken... there was simply talent on the board at the time of each pick that I liked better... my picks would have been

1. Josh Sale
2. Peter Tago
3. Seth Blair
4. Yordy Cabrera

AWeb - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#216577) #
I don't follow the draft and pre-draft closely enough to know who the Jays might've picked instead of the first four guys, but I was stunned that they picked four RHPs in the first 41 picks of the draft. You can never have too much pitching is only a saying - you actually need hitting too. And with the Jays in AAA Vegas right now, it seems like their pitching prospects might end up undervalued from a trade point of view, so I can't see much value in piling guys up. Of course, the HS pitchers are years from AAA. Any plans for a post-draft "roundtable" article by some of the roster? Seems like it could lead to some vigorous debate at this point.

Denoit - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#216578) #

I thought it was a little odd that the Jays selected 4 pitchers. But that being said, they must have felt strongly about these players, and they have been successful at developing pitchers. I don't think its right to sit here and say they should have selected someone else, when they have been scouting players and know alot more about these guys than us arm chair GM's. It's fine to have an opinion but to talk down on the guys they selected before they have even played a professional game doesn't make much sense to me. Just a gut feeling but I think today we may see some high upside over slot players that alot of people were hoping to see in the first round. I'm definatly looking forward to see these guy move through the system. If a few of these guys pan out the pitching could become quite a juggernaut.

MatO - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#216579) #

I would prefer to never actually draft pitchers but unfortunately you need them.  Most people don't realize that the vast majority of early round pitchers don't even get to Casey Janssen's level.  I don't really have any opinion on these picks but get back to me in 5 years.

Another fine Polish boy was picked by the Jays though with a name the same last name as long time friends of my family.  The proper pronunciation of Wojciechowski is Voy-che-hov-ski.  I'm sure that's not what you'll hear though.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#216580) #

I think the Jays hit a home run in the supplemental round.  Both Sanchez and Wojo are big, high upside righthanders that were rated almost universally as top 30 talent. 

And the Syndergaard pick might have been even better.  Instead of the low ceiling but easy to sign college guy that we were expecting with the Paxton pick, we got a high ceiling prep arm who was pitching as well as anyone towards the end of the year (he's only 17) that was identified as a signable player.  Good work by the scouts there!

Maguire was probably who I wanted the least of all the top 15 prospects, but I acknowledge that he is probably as good as anyone else available and they had at least 12 different sets of eyes look at him.

I have no issues with the fact that they're all pitchers.  We can send them all to San Diego in a year for Adrian Gonzalez.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#216581) #

The proper pronunciation of Wojciechowski is Voy-che-hov-ski

is that "chay" or "cheh"?

Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#216582) #

BA: Best Available Talent Heading Into Day Two

www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2405

15. Stetson Allie, rhp, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
 20. Brandon Workman, rhp, Texas
 23. Brett Eibner, rhp/of, Arkansas
 25. A.J. Cole, rhp, Oviedo (Fla.) HS
 28. Austin Wilson, of, Harvard-Westlake School, Studio City, Calif.
 31. Ryan LaMarre, of, Michigan
 33. Chad Bettis, rhp, Texas Tech    
 35. Yordy Cabrera, ss/rhp, Lakeland (Fla.) HS   
 37. Jedd Gyorko, ss, West Virginia  
 38. Ryne Stanek, rhp, Blue Valley HS, Stilwell, Kan.
 45. A.J. Vanegas, rhp, Redwood Christian HS, San Lorenzo, Calif.
 46. Garin Cecchini, 3b, Barbe HS, Lake Charles, La.
 47. James Paxton, lhp, Grand Prairie (American Assoc.)
 48. Sammy Solis, lhp, San Diego
 50. Jesse Hahn, rhp, Virginia Tech

* I don't want to sound pessimestic, but other then Yordy Cabrera and Austin Wilson there's not too much high upside position players on this list. Could we draft even more arms today?

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#216583) #

from Fangraphs:

11. Toronto Blue Jays – Deck McGuire | RHP | Georgia Tech

It’s not often for a pitcher to pair such size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds) with such pitchability, but McGuire is a rare breed. Capable of throwing four pitches in any count, he’ll go as high as scouts believe in pitches 2-4. We know his fastball will work at the next level, and while it’s not explosive, commanding 92 mph isn’t bad. He trusts his change up, and flashes a plus slider, so it will probably be his curveball that gets scrapped. (Bryan Smith)

34. Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez | RHP | California HS

Sanchez is considered a bit of a project with a good, low-90s fastball and curveball, but he lacks a third pitch. He has a very long stride and almost launches himself off the rubber, which could be contributing to his control issues. He’s committed to the University of Oregon. (Marc Hulet)

41. Toronto Blue Jays – Asher Wojciechowski | RHP | The Citadel

Wojciechowski currently leads Division I in both innings pitched (125.2) and strikeouts (155), which is a bit of a double-edged sword: on the one hand, he’s a proven workhorse. On the other, he has a lot of mileage on his arm. The team that drafts him would be well advised to give him some well-earned rest, and begin refining his slider and changeup in the fall. Some are calling him a future reliever, because while the fastball already plays, it might only be his slider that ever becomes a usable secondary offering. (Bryan Smith)

Moe - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#216584) #
I don't want to sound pessimestic, but other then Yordy Cabrera and Austin Wilson there's not too much high upside position players on this list. Could we draft even more arms today?

I was thinking the same. Maybe they end up taking Wilson? Third round is still protected. Otherwise, more RHP. This has the making of a legendary draft....

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#216585) #

guys I think I like from BA's list (warning: more prep arms):

15. Stetson Allie, rhp, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio
 25. A.J. Cole, rhp, Oviedo (Fla.) HS
 28. Austin Wilson, of, Harvard-Westlake School, Studio City, Calif.
 35. Yordy Cabrera, ss/rhp, Lakeland (Fla.) HS   
 37. Jedd Gyorko, ss, West Virginia  
 45. A.J. Vanegas, rhp, Redwood Christian HS, San Lorenzo, Calif.
 46. Garin Cecchini, 3b, Barbe HS, Lake Charles, La. 
 

not necessarily in that order....I think I like Cole/Wilson/Cabrera over the other four.

Rich - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#216586) #
While it doesn't sound like many project McGuire was an ace, I find it hard to be too down on his selection.  Virtually every draft board had him rated as one of the top dozen players in the draft.  If his ceiling is as a guy who consistently gives you 200 innings and a bunch of quality starts, well, until we have 5 starters who can do better than this that's a guy who helps the ballclub.  Or at worst is trade bait if he's only a couple of years away, which is how it sounds to me.
MatO - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#216587) #

is that "chay" or "cheh"?

Cheh.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#216588) #
I have no issues with the fact that they're all pitchers.  We can send them all to San Diego in a year for Adrian Gonzalez.

I've got some swampland in Florida, an aardvark (maybe they'll confuse aardvark with aardsma), and a partridge in a pear tree that you could throw in, if you wanted.

One of the lines about Ricciardi's unbalanced drafting (too heavy on pitchers) was that it would be easy to trade it for position talent.  That didn't work out so well. 
Spicol - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#216589) #

In response to “you actually need hitting too”, I think it’s anecdote time:

Let's say you have a sauce factory. The factory combines tomatoes and basil to make sauce and you hope to make the best sauce around. You have options...you can grow the tomatoes and basil yourself, you can grow one or the other or you can buy both. What do you do? You try to grow both initially but, as it turns out, your operation is awesome at growing basil and only average at growing tomatoes. The conditions are such and your basil growers are so good that your basil yield is better than almost anyone's. And the market for basil in the recent past has shown that you can demand pretty high prices for developed crop. So, you invest really heavily in basil operation, because that’s what you’re good at, and you use your basil profits to buy great, already picked tomatoes from the place across town, because that’s what they are good at producing. Now that you don’t have to worry about dividing up your growing resources between tomatoes and basil, your basil yield becomes even better and your factory is making more money overall because your sauce is better than ever. It’s a good thing you recognized what you were good at and had the smarts to focus on it.

As things stand today, the Jays organization as a whole is very good at developing pitchers. Playing to a strength is just good business.

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#216591) #

I think there are problems with being too dogmatic to any particular draft strategy. At a certain point you need to trust your scouts, and take the best player of the board. Sale was not understood to have insane demands, so I can only assume that the Jays scouting staff liked Deck more, when taking into account the added risk that pitchers bring.

 

Having only read quick descriptions of Deck, I was initially disappointed in the selection. Especially after having read so much discussion hoping for certain players to drop – seeing them drop – and then having the Jays take a guy who had previously been described as a low ceiling fall back option that we may have been stuck with if the aforementioned players didn’t drop! However, after reading some more descriptive scouting reports, seeing where he was ranked by the various pundits, and reading further analysis today, I am happier with the selection and at least willing to give the kid a chance.

 

I was also hoping for an influx of a couple high end position players also. But I have never seen Sale or Castellanos play, and I cannot say for certain where their ceilings are. While I was intrigued by what I heard - I’m sure the jays have seen all of these players more than Law, Callis and many of the on-line scouting agencies put together.

 

I am looking forward to the up coming rounds.

Spicol - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#216592) #

<i>One of the lines about Ricciardi's unbalanced drafting (too heavy on pitchers) was that it would be easy to trade it for position talent.  That didn't work out so well.</i>

It hasn't? The only reason the Halladay trade is survivable is because the Jays have a glut of cheap, effective pitching on hand. This is what the pitching-heavy strategy allows you to do, trade away the arms when they begin to cost more than they are worth. It's not necessary or advisable to trade them before they are at max value.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#216593) #
There is a bit of a misconception there, Spicol.  If you look at the top end of the organization's drafts in the years 2002-06 (from 2007, most of the players are still in progress), they are pitching heavy and the success rate for pitchers in the first 3 rounds is certainly no better, and maybe worse, than for position players:

2002- Adams, Bush, Maureau
2003- Hill, Banks, Marcum
2004- Purcey, Jackson, Thigpen, Lind, Danny Hill
2005- Romero, Pettway
2006- Snider

3 first round position players, 2 successes.  2 first round pitchers, 1 success (so far).  1 supplemental pitcher (Z. Jackson), 0 success (2007 gave Cecil).  2 2nd round pitchers, I guess we can call Bush a success.  1 2nd round position player (Thigpen), 0 success.  3 3rd round pitchers (Maureau, Marcum and D. Hill), 1 success.  2 3rd round position players, 1 success. 

Parenthetically, the results for 2002-06 (for both position players and pitchers) is somewhat above average. 

cascando - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#216594) #
Interesting, Spicol.  Comparative advantage works in international trade so why shouldn't it work in baseball.  But aside from running a solid pitching development (or basil growing) operation, you have to have some savvy in the GM seat.   I think the early returns on Anthopolous are encouraging.  Ricciardi seemed to be of the "take it or leave it" school of deal-making, which maybe wasn't entirely conducive to turning excess assets into needs.  Hopefully AA will have more luck translating his stockpiled pitching into position players.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#216595) #
No, the plan of drafting too many pitchers didn't work well.  The goal was to compete and to be able to trade pitching talent for gaps in talent on the field when needed to compete, not to survive impending free agency of the team's greatest star.

Pitching is between 35 and 40 per cent of the game, and it is necessarily less predictable than other aspects.  If you don't understand that and take advantage of that uncertainty, you are in deep trouble. 

Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#216596) #

In general I don't like or dislike picks, I assume the Jays scouting team knows what they are doing in an event that has a high "miss" rate.  So while everyone is entitled to their opinion I don't worry about labels such as good draft or bad draft because we don't know.

Just for fun I went back to look at the Batters Box commentary on the Jays 2007 draft.

Most of the commentary related to teams passing on Rick Porcello.  Outside of that some people didn't like the Cecil or Rzepczynski picks.  Pistol, to his credit, did like the Zep pick.  There was some question as to whether Arencibia could catch at the major league level.

Here is a Magnuson comment:

Magnuson is a huge money saving pick. He was a fifth year senior(!) and could have been signed for peanuts by any team before the draft if his team's playoffs had ended in time. He probably would have been available in the seventh round

And another comment:

Honestly, I'm not very impressed by this draft. It seems alittle like the same old. Ahrens is OK (would have preferred Beavan). I don't like the Cecil pick and our last pick of the supplemental round. I think that the Nationals made out like bandits. Very toolsy draft.

And another:

Eiland and Tolisano are excellent 2nd round picks.
 
And another:
 
Marc Rzepczynski does not seem to be that great a pick to me. His numbers, while great this past season, suggest someone who has simply adjusted to a league he has been in for four years, rather than someone with outstanding stuff.
 
 
Moving on to 2008 here are some comments:
 
Unless I'm missing something, Ike Davis is statistically quite far behind Cooper once the adjustments are made.  Cooper seems to have more power and strikes out much less.  Can someone make the case for picking Davis over Cooper?

I agree on Ike Davis.... I've had a bad feel on him for awhile, and maybe it was the big junior year SLG jump.
You guys are underrating his (Cooper's) power big time.  He has more HRs and more doubles than Wallace this year.  He is a 25-30 HR type guy and Goldstein thinks that he has 30+ HR power.
 
In fairness some of the posters who made the above comments, made other comments that said they liked a player who is playing well in the Jays system.  My review of the previous draft threads show that the posters here are like the Jay's scouts, they hit in some opinions and miss out on others.
 
Gerry - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#216597) #
Before the Jays game on Sunday, Jamie Campbell had Shi Davidi and Jordan Bastian in studio and he asked them about the best picks of the JP era.  They picked Shaun Marcum and Brett Cecil, neither a top 30 pick.   You just don't know where value will come from in a draft.
joemayo - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#216598) #

One of the lines about Ricciardi's unbalanced drafting (too heavy on pitchers) was that it would be easy to trade it for position talent. That didn't work out so well.

Lyle Overbay might disagree with you.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#216599) #

RHP is the strength of this draft.  We should have been prepared to take it.  MG is right that hitting is safer than pitching early in a draft and should be targeted, all things equal. 

Unfortunately, all things aren't equal.  Either the Jays felt that a) the RHP available was better than any hitter available at the position to negate the "safer" argument, or b) pitching is not safer than hitting early in the draft for the Jays specifically because they've had much more success at developing pitchers drafted early.

85bluejay - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#216600) #

I agree, the draft is such a crap shoot - most experts & posters are saying that Boston & Tampa had a better

day 1 than the Jays - I disagree - I guess we'll see in 5-6 yrs. I remember how enthusiastic this board and Baseball

America was about JP's first draft & we all know how that turned out. If the scouts weren't enthused about the

position prospects, then I'm happy they didn't draft them.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#216601) #
I wonder if my like for Marcum and Cecil makes up for my, um, advocacy of Joel Collins.  The last comment of 2008 was mine, and I think that I may have got that one right:

"I agree that it is a poor draft class.  I do think that Ricciardi, Lalonde and company did well; there is a reasonable chance that they will get two good position players out of Cooper, Wilson, Pastornicky and Thames."

Hopefully, the drafting team brings their A game on day two.

Spicol - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#216603) #

There is a bit of a misconception there, Spicol.  If you look at the top end of the organization's drafts in the years 2002-06.

Unfortunately, this isn't really something that looking historically can answer, since the organization has gone through some upheaval and the scouting and coaching staff that existed as far back as 2002 is largely irrelevant now. If the organization has confidence in its current ability to choose and develop pitchers, and I think that the brass does feel that is a particular strength based on recent results, then that's the strength you play to. Just because Ricciardi didn't execute the plan as well as he could have, it doesn't mean it isn't an effective strategy.

No, the plan of drafting too many pitchers didn't work well.  The goal was to compete and to be able to trade pitching talent for gaps in talent on the field when needed to compete, not to survive impending free agency of the team's greatest star.

If we're talking about maximizing resources, it's two paths to the same end, isn't it?

Spicol - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#216604) #

Before the Jays game on Sunday, Jamie Campbell had Shi Davidi and Jordan Bastian in studio and he asked them about the best picks of the JP era.  They picked Shaun Marcum and Brett Cecil, neither a top 30 pick.

I saw that and thought the question wasn't defined well. If "best pick" is intended to mean best MLB performance to date out of the player, you'd answer it differently (probably Aaron Hill or Adam Lind) than "most astute recognition of value" (which is where a later pick probably makes sense).

lexomatic - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#216607) #

budgell,

this would make the Jays the AL version of the Giants.... not sure i want that.

 

my thoughts on the draft are meh.

but i'm not sure what position players you'd pick instead.

Mylegacy - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#216608) #
I am slowly returning to planet earth over the McGuire pick. I can't believe at number 11 we didn't get Josh Sale or "Sa - Leigh" as the announcers seem to be pronouncing it. I still think we left a much more valuable guy unpicked. However, we now have the problem of water long gone under the bridge and milk being lapped off the floor by the cat.

I was down on Deck for several reasons. One, his stuff went backwards this year. Two, I followed reports of  him closely in several games and his FB is just too straight and hittable. Three, you can't succeed unless you can work off your FB - and I have me doubts.

However, in his favour - he's been successful in a very tough college league - a point with which I grudgingly agree. I also hear he doesn't sweat much for such a big man and apparently - as far as I've been able to ascertain - his athletes foot seems well under control, all points in his favour. Sorry - I just can't get excited - honest - I'm trying.

Sanchez is the guy I'm very high on. Lets see what we can do with his package of goodies. Asher Wojciechowski may have the best FB in US college ranks - not so worse, eh? Teach the guy a changeup and lets see what the Big W do. The "Guy From Legacy High" is Noah Syndergaard - apparently he's a late "helium" guy - looks to be an intriguing pick - Andy Seiler thinks he's been coming on strong and fast. I like the pick - high risk - high reward, I hope. Lastly the guy is from Legacy HS how can Mylegacy not give the guy the benefit of the doubt. Mylegacy, methinks sees some serendipity here, n'est pas?

As to day two - let the games begin!

92-93 - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#216610) #

 In any case, they hid their cards nicely (per AA's secrecy agenda)

Let's not get too crazy about these so called new tight-lipped policies the regime is supposed to have...Jeff Blair told Keith Law on 590 yesterday that he heard the Jays would likely select McGuire and Law replied that they weren't going the safe college route at #11...you just have to know who you should be listening to when it comes to different areas.

Where's metafour? He loves talking about the prospects before the draft, figured he'd be a key component in this thread. I was hoping he'd explain to me how Ranaudo lasted past the Blue Jays 2 supplemental picks, because he was convinced last week he wasn't getting out of the first round and even entertaining the possibility was a waste of his time.

Anders - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#216615) #

Where's metafour? He loves talking about the prospects before the draft, figured he'd be a key component in this thread. I was hoping he'd explain to me how Ranaudo lasted past the Blue Jays 2 supplemental picks, because he was convinced last week he wasn't getting out of the first round and even entertaining the possibility was a waste of his time.

I think there are underlying medical concerns. Plus Ranaudo's been hammered: "He owns an 8.02 ERA with a 39/21 K/BB ratio in 42.2 innings this season, and opponents are hitting .301 off him." I believe he picked up towards the end of the year. However he is also represented by Scott Boras.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 08 2010 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#216622) #

Those concerns all existed a few days ago when I suggested the Blue Jays might look at Ranaudo and was told it's an impossibility.

Asher Woj - Pollock or Yid?

bpoz - Wednesday, June 09 2010 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#216751) #
CF and 92-93 you mentioned #3 and Ace. I am intrigued by the word Ace and "potential Ace".

In last nights 9-0 loss to TB, Jerry mentioned all 5 SP of TB as aces but Alan was not sure about Shields. Anyhow Garza/Price/Niemann all seem to qualify as potential Aces to Jerry and Alan.

By the end of this season what do any of TB's big 3 have to accomplish to earn the Ace/potential Ace title.

IMO Oakland's Hudson/Mulder/Zito each earned the title Ace. But they did not play in today's AL East.

What I am leading up to is what about our Aces. I would like to think our big 3 qualify.
By including Oakland's 3 (never mind AL East factor) have I created 2 standards? If so Oakland's 3 are my standard.

When given the chance over 2010,11,12 I think we could have 5 Aces because I would include Drabek's and Alvarez's and others results with the big club.

Listening to many radio and TV personnel the definition of Ace has different versions. I would like even an achievement range for a consistent definition/standard.

92-93 I prefer Cecil to Morrow right now, maybe it is just me but I am less nervous with him. But Morrow has had some gems AND 2 in a row TB & NYY.
2010 Draft - Day One | 142 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.