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Welcome to the creme de la creme, the number one through ten prospects.  In case you missed it number 11 through 20 are here, and number 21 to 30 are here.

We hope you enjoyed this top 30 and the hope it brings to the future of the Blue Jays organization.   Check back tomorrow for a few who missed the top 30.



10. Deck McGuire | RHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2011
22
A+
19
18
104.2
7.7
0.8
3.3
8.8
2.75
2011
22
AA
4
3
20.2
8.7
1.7
3.0
9.6
4.35

The Jays first round pick of 2010 came into the season as the team’s #3 prospect according to Baseball America.  The 6-foot-6 Georgia Tech hurler received a $2-million bonus but did not make his pro debut until this season in Dunedin.  McGuire’s first appearance came out of the bullpen April 7 when he threw four shutout innings, scattering three hits and a walk and striking out five.  His first win came April 18 with 5 2/3 shutout frames against Lakeland.  He also pitched six shutout innings against Brevard County May 5 and had seven scoreless frames against Jupiter May 17.  His last Dunedin appearance saw him throw six shutout innings against Port Charlotte July 22.  It was performances like those that earned McGuire a Florida State League All-Star selection.  He won seven o f 11 decisions with the D-Jays before earning a call-up to AA New Hampshire. 

McGuire pitched a seven inning complete game in his Fisher Cats debut July 27 against New Britain in which he allowed three runs.  He followed that up with another victory against his hometown Richmond by meeting the quality start guidelines of six innings and three earned runs.  However, McGuire suffered a loss in Bowie in his next start and then landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain.  He did return to the Fisher Cats September 5 to pitch two shutout innings of relief against Portland.  McGuire was hit around in the Eastern League Final in Game 1 against Richmond by giving up two runs while failing to record an out in a relief appearance.  He did get the start in the clinching Game 4 against the Flying Squirrels and gave up two runs over three innings.  McGuire saw him home run rate double upon his promotion and his hit rate went up one hit per nine innings.  On the positive side, his walk rate dipped slightly and he struck out more than a batter an inning by whiffing nearly one more batter per frame.

McGuire has been lauded for having a decent arsenal that includes a fastball, slider, curveball and changeup that he can throw for strikes at any time.  He has improved his fastball command by pitching down in the zone.  His heater has been clocked around 90-94 mph and his 82-85 mph slider is said to be his strikeout pitch.  His curveball is around the mid-70s and is said to have good feel on his changeup. However, scouts believe McGuire’s ceiling is limited because his pitches are not overpowering and profiles as a mid-rotation starter at best.  He does get good reviews for his poise and delivery.  McGuire, who will turn 23 June 23, will probably head back to New Hampshire in 2012.

9. Adeiny Hechavarria | SS

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
21
A+
161
7
3
1
5
25
7
0
.193
.217
.292
2010
21
AA
253
11
1
3
12
40
6
3
.273
.305
.360
2011
22
AA
464
22
6
6
25
78
19
13
.235
.275
.347
2011
22
AAA
108
6
2
2
8
21
1
2
.389
.431
.537


Adeiny Hechavarria is a defensive wizard who, at the low end, could turn into the Cuban John McDonald, or at the high end, into another Omar Vizquel.  Hechavarria is probably a better defender than most shortstops who are currently in the major leagues but his fate rests with his bat.  And that is the point at which opinions of Hechavarria diverge.  Will he hit like he did in the Eastern League, sub .250 with a few walks and some extra base hits?  Or will he be the Las Vegas Hech, hitting .300 with some pop?   Blue Jays minor league staff suggested that concentration, or taking at-bats off, was an issue for Hechavarria.  Baseball America made the same observation.  If that is true it has a good and a bad side.  The good is that his AAA performance may be closer to his true talent level, the bad is that he could pout and not play well if he is unhappy, not unlike another Cuban shortstop we know.

Like many Latino players Hechavarria is not a patient hitter, though he strikes out in under 20% of his at-bats his walk to strikeout ratio is around 3:1.  This is not terrible but a 2:1 ratio would be better.  Since starting to play in North America last season, Adeiny has been trying to learn to be more patient in his at-bats and see a better pitch to hit.  Is that what happened in Las Vegas?  We don't know.  In 2011 Hech hit lefthanded pitchers a lot better than right handers.  Sal Fasano, in an interview here on batters Box, said that Hechavarria struggled against breaking balls from right handed pitchers.  In the PCL he will see a lot of those pitches and hopefully improve his pitch recognition.

At this point only a major injury will stop Hechavarria from playing in the major leagues.  The Blue Jays want him to spend most of 2012 in Las Vegas.  They say that Adeiny is still learning hitting, and the major leagues is not the best environment to do that  The Jays hope that the best part of a year in AAA will cement the hitting approach and skills that will make Hechavarria a better major league hitter.

8. Daniel Norris | LHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
17
HS
-
-
64.0
-
-
-
19.7
1.96
2011
18
HS
11
11
62.0
4.5
-
4.2
16.4
1.80

Many Bauxites would have been happy if Daniel Norris was Toronto’s first-round pick. Instead, teams avoided him because of his bonus demands and Anthopoulos drafted Norris in the fourth round, 74th overall, much to the delight of Jays fans everywhere. Reportedly demanding $3.5-4 million to not honour his commitment to Clemson, Norris in fact signed with the Jays for $2 million, the fourth highest bonus in franchise history. It seems likely that at least several other teams would have taken Norris earlier if they knew he would sign for that amount.

A native of Johnson City, Tennessee, Norris was 181 days old when Joe Carter hit his famous home run off Mitch Williams. One hundred and eighty-one days. As a 15-year-old, Norris was hitting 87-88 on his fastball. He didn’t limit his athletic talents to baseball, as Norris also played basketball and was co-quarterback of his high school football team. He had one memorable game with over 100 years rushing, another 100 receiving and 150 years passing. However, he gave up football after Grade 11 to concentrate on baseball, where he stood out as a prospect.

Norris had a 33-3 record at Science Hill High School, including a no-hitter with 15 strikeouts. He regularly hit 94 at a Perfect Game Showcase for top high school prospects in Florida during 2010. The southpaw was named the best high school prospect by Perfect Game that year. He was also named Baseball America’s High School Pitcher of the Year in 2010 and won the Jackie Robinson Award the same year as the best high school player nationally, following in the steps of Bryce Harper in 2009. Prior to the draft, Baseball America named him the 16th-best prospect and Keith Law ranked him 33rd.

Norris stands 6’2” and weighs 210 pounds. His repertoire includes four pitches that he throws from a three-quarters arm angle. Norris’ main weapon is a fastball that can reach 96, but usually sits closer to 92. He also throws an inconsistent curveball that sits in the mid-70’s with tight spin but low velocity; a change-up that that can be deceptive and sits around 83 and a still-developing slider in the mid-80’s that is used mainly against right-handed batters. Norris picked up his change-up with late movement recently after a session with Kris Benson and it has improved quickly. He is more consistent with his change than his curve and scouts seemed to be split about which they felt was Norris’ second-best weapon, although both pitches have the potential to improve. The slider remains a work in progress.

The biggest red flag prior to the draft was that Norris’ delivery caused concern to some scouts and also caused him to have command problems. That isn’t particularly uncommon in high school pitchers and there is a lot of time for Toronto’s coaching staff to try to correct problems they may see in Norris’ delivery. Unfortunately, some high schoolers fail to ever make those adjustments.

Norris sounds very humble in interviews and speaks of his determination to work hard and succeed. His makeup, including his passion for the sport, consistently garnered praise in pre-draft scouting reports. Scouting reports uniformly stated that Norris has the true ceiling of a number one starter, if everything goes right. His ranking reflects the fact that he’s the gem of the 2011 Jays draft class at this point and, were it not for a very good year by the minor league system as a whole, he could easily have ranked much higher.

7. Justin Nicolino | LHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2011
19
A-
12
9
52.1
4.82
0.0
1.89
11.01
1.03
2011
19
A
3
3
8.2
11.42
0.0
2.08
9.35
3.12


The Toronto Blue Jays system has enjoyed a banner year with a number of minor league players taking big jumps in development. No other prospect – with the possible exception of Drew Hutchison – has seen their value increase more than Nicolino. A 2010 second round pick out of a Florida high school, the left-hander is exactly the type of amateur prospect that the previous regime avoided like the plague. Nicolino, 19, was the only prep pitcher from the impressive 2010 draft crop (Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Griffin Murphy, Mitchell Taylor, Myles Jaye, Zak Adams) that was initially challenged with an assignment to the college-heavy Northwest League. The Vancouver Canadians season began in June after extended spring training and Nicolino was not only the club's best pitcher - but Baseball America ranked him as the best prospect in the entire league. It's easy to see why the publication, as well as the scouts surveyed, was excited. Nicolino posted a walk rate of 1.89 BB/9 while striking out batters at a 11.01 K/9 clip. In 61.0 regular season innings between the short-season Northwest League and low-A Midwest League, the southpaw did not allow a home run and posted a solid ground-ball rate. A solid talent coming out of high school, Nicolino's stuff has already improved. His repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, potentially-plus changeup, and a solid curveball. In his 12 appearances in the Northwest League, his FIP was 1.44 (1.03 ERA). Only an injury will stop Nicolino from opening 2012 in low-A ball with Lansing and he could very well reach high-A Dunedin at some point.

6. Nestor Molina | RHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
21
A
37
2
76.2
7.51
0.47
2.35
7.16
3.17
2010
21
A+
2
0
4.1
14.54
0.00
0.00
6.23
2.08
2011
22
A+
21
18
108.1
8.47
0.66
1.16
9.55
2.58
2011
22
AA
5
5
22.0
4.91
0.00
0.82
13.50
0.41

The Jays organization has a seen a few success stories in recent years regarding prospects that have converted from hitter to pitcher, or vice versa. Molina began his career in the Dominican Summer League as a hitter but struggled with the bat. The team made the wise decision to make use of his arm strength on the mound rather than cut bait entirely. Despite his relative inexperience as a pitcher, Molina displays almost extra-ordinary command of the ball. His control helps his average (87-93 mph) fastball play up. His best pitch - his out-pitch - could certainly be his change-of-pace, which is a big-league-caliber splitter. Molina, 22, also features a decent slider/cutter. In 2011, the right-hander began the year in advanced A and posted a 2.45 FIP (2.58 ERA). He displayed his outstanding control with an other-worldly walk rate of 1.16 BB/9 and missed a lot of bats as witnessed by his strikeout rate of 9.55 K/9. He then made five dominating regular season starts in AA, as well as a few post-season appearances. With his fielding glove now with a heavy layer of dust on it, Molina broke the 100-inning barrier for the first time in his career with 130.1 innings pitched between high-A and double-A. The Jays organization is starting to stockpile and impressive group of minor league arms and some of those prospects are starting to reach the Majors (Henderson Alvarez, Joel Carreno, Luis Perez, Chad Beck, Danny Farquhar, etc). Molina could very well join them at the MLB level at some point in 2012 and it will be interesting to see if the club challenges him with an assignment to the launching pad known as triple-A Las Vegas. More than likely, though, he'll begin next year back in double-A New Hampshire.

5. Noah Syndergaard | RHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
17
Rk
5
5
13.1
7.6
0.0
2.7
4.1
2.70
2011
18
A-
7
5
32.0
6.5
0.3
3.1
10.4
1.41
2011
18
A-
4
4
18.0
7.5
0.0
2.5
11.0
2.00
2011
18
A
2 2 9.0
8.0
0.0
2.0
9.0
3.


When Syndergaard was drafted with the compensation pick for not agreeing to terms with James Paxton, many observers saw it as a safe and signable selection. However, it was also noted that few pitchers had done more to increase their value prior to the draft than Syndergaard. Clocked as high as 97 MPH in the months leading up to the draft, the Jays saw a 6'5" power pitcher who was just 17. Their foresight has, to this point, been rewarded.

Now standing 6'7" Syndergaard started 2011 in extended spring training before throwing 59 innings across three levels, culminating in two stretch drive starts for Lansing. No matter where he pitched, Syndergaard's results were similar: not many hits, no homers, low walks, and a lot of strikeouts. That's a recipe for success. In fact, Syndergaard has yielded just one home run in over 72 professional innings.

Scouting reports on Syndergaard have only improved since his draft day. Routinely clocking in the upper 90s and with even a couple of reports of 100MPH, Syndergaard complements his heat with an already above-average curve and a developing change up which BA's Jim Callis rated as perhaps the best among the Jays' 2010 draftees. His delivery is described as easy and effortless, which can be rare in someone with his size and youth.

At this point, having just turned 19, Syndergaard appears to be on the fast track to elite prospect level status. His 2012 assignment hasn't yet been determined but the Jays will keep an eye on his innings so it's possible he could return to Short Season ball. However, if he continues his rapid development, Lansing may be where he spends the majority of his age 19 season.


4. Anthony Gose | CF

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
17
R
39
2
1
0
1
12
3
1
.256
.293
.359
2009
18
A
510
24
9
2
35 110 76
20
.259
.323
.353
2010
19
A+*
512
20
13
7
45 132 45
32
.262
.328
.393
2011
20
AA
509
20
7
16
62 154 70
15
.253
.349
.415


In his first full year in the Jays organization (he came from the Phillies in the Halladay deal), Gose has turned out to be one of the most exciting players in the Jays system. With his lightning speed and “go all out” attitude, he has made the transition to double-A ball as a sterling asset for the organization.  Defensively Gose covers a ton of range with blazing speed, and possesses a plus arm - he was formerly a pitcher who hit well into the 90s on the gun.   Offensively, he blasted by the New Hampshire team stolen base record at mid season, ending up with a blinding 70 stolen bases (while being caught stealing only 15 times, a vast improvement on 2010), to take the Eastern League base stealing title.  He batted a ho-hum .253 on the year for the Fisher Cats, but his power (16 HR), eye (10.6 BB%) and speed on the basepaths make him a varied offensive threat, scoring, getting on, and getting in scoring position.  On the negative side, his overall plate discipline could use improvement.  He is known for frequently jumping on first pitches, and  he needs to cut down on his 154 Ks (26.2%.)  The Jays changed Gose's hitting style after he came over from the Phillies and it appears that this new style is developing but not perfected. Ultimately whether he develops into a star or just a useful piece will depend on his ability to hit for average.

Gose is headed the Arizona Fall league and his performance there may dictate whether he starts 2012 back in New Hampshire or in Las Vegas.  Overall, look to see Gose making the bigs either towards the end of 2012 or in 2013, and for him to make a contribution as a solid outfielder for the Jays. 


3. Drew Hutchison | RHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
19
A-
10
10
45.0
6.8
0.2
2.4
8.8
3.00
2010
19
A
5
5
23.2
6.5
0.4
2.7
7.2
1.52
2011
20
A
14
14
72.0
8.5
0.1
2.4
10.5
2.63
2011
20
A+
11
10
62.1
6.1
0.4
2.0
9.5
2.74
2011
20
AA
3
3
15.0
6.0
0.0
1.2
12.6
1.2


Drew Hutchison had a great 2011.  Hutchison's great year started in spring training where he made a late start for the major league team against the Phillies.  In that game he allowed two unearned runs over 4.2 innings. After that he started the season in Lansing and made 14 starts there before being promoted to Dunedin.  He appeared in 11 games in Dunedin before being promoted again to New Hampshire where he made three regular season starts and then pitched in the playoffs.  His highest ERA was 2.74 in Dunedin, his highest batting average against was .245 in Lansing, he held FSL and Eastern League hitters to batting averages under .200.  And let us not forget that Drew pitched most of the season as a 20 year-old, he turned 21 at the end of August.

Hutchison has excellent command: he walks around 2 hitters per nine innings and K's over 10.  Hutchison doesn't have blow you away stuff, but he can hit his spots and knows how to attack the hitters.  Drew throws across his body - as you can see from the photo above that he lands with his foot pointing towards third base. This helps keeps the ball hidden from the hitter for a longer time and makes his pitches appear faster than they are.  The offset to this approach is that is puts more strain on the body.  Hutchison's fastball comes in at 89-93 but he can command it, sink it and cut it to both sides of the plate.  He has a plus change-up and a developing slider.

Look for Hutchison back in AA to start 2012 and if you believe Alex Anthopoulos you should see him in Toronto late in the year.


2. Jake Marisnick | CF

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
19
R
122
12
0
3
13
18
14
1
.287
.373
.459
2010
19
A
127
8
2
1
9
37
9
2
.220
.298
.339
2011
20
A
462
26
7
14
43
91
37
8
.320
.392
.500

Jake Marisnick signed with the Jays as a third rounder in 2009 for an above slot cool $1 million. A polished contact hitter coming out of high school in California, the general consensus was that Marisnick would likely develop power but that his overall upside was somewhat limited. He helped himself by having a pretty good debut season in 2010, posting strong numbers in the GCL before struggling a bit in Lansing. He had no such problems in 2011 however, as he posted a strong .320/.392/.500 line in what was a pitchers league - the average hitter hit .250/.323/.370, a rate Marisnick beat comfortably with a wOBA of 160. Though he was the beneficiary of a high average on balls in play, he also posted a solid walk rate (8.2%) and good isolated power (.180) while keeping his strikeouts in the 17% range. As part of their strategy to keep their Knecht/Crouse/Marisnick outfield core together, Marisnick, like the other two, spent the entire 2011 season in the A level Midwest League when he probably could have been promoted more aggressively. Look for Marisnick, if not that whole trio, to begin 2012 in Florida in hi-A ball. After that things get a little murkier, as the Jays have strong depth in centre field with Rasmus in Toronto and Anthony Gose in New Hampshire, where it's not clear where he'll go (things are weird in AAA Las Vegas and the team hasn't really sent a lot of legitimate prospects there.)

Although he doesn't have any tools that grade out higher than Anthony Gose's arm and speed, Marisnick is an extremely well rounded, legitimate five tool player who looks like he can be at least an average defender in CF in the majors. Even if he's moved off of centre because he outgrows it or because he's blocked, Marisnick profiles as a potentially above average player.

1. Travis d'Arnaud | C

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
18
Rk
141
3
0
4
4
23
4
2
.241
.278
.348
2008
19
A-
175
13
1
4
18
29
1
2
.309
.371
.463
2008
19
A
64
5
0
2
5
10
0
0
.297
.357
.469
2009
20
A
482
38
1
13
41
75
8
4
.255
.319
.419
2010
21
A+
263
20
1
6
20
63
3
1
.259
.315
.411
2011
22
AA
424
33
1
21
33
100
4
2
.311
.371
.542


When the Blue Jays traded Roy Halladay following the 2009 season, they acquired what most considered a very good haul from the Philadelphia Phillies. Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace (for whom Michael Taylor was flipped) were both excellent prospects, and to get two top 30 prospects, as they were rated by Baseball America at the time, was considered a success in light of the recent Cliff Lee and Johan Santana trades.

Travis d'Arnaud wasn't exactly a throw-in to the deal (he was BA's #81 prospect that year, after all), but he was certainly the third man. Now, two seasons later, d'Arnaud is arguably a better prospect than Drabek and Wallace ever were.

2010 was something of a lost season for d'Arnaud, as he only played half the year while battling back problems. However, he was healthy in 2011 and boy did it ever show. D'Arnaud is now in the conversation for best catching prospect in the game after a torrid 2011 that saw him rack up a .953 OPS as a 22-year-old at AA. Travis hit for average and power this year, and he's always been well-regarded defensively. He's almost the complete package.

The only thing missing from d'Arnaud's skill set at the moment is some plate discipline. His walk rate actually isn't that bad (about 7%) but when combined with a fairly high strikeout rate (about 22%) things start to look a little Arencibi-ish. Just a little - JPA walked less and was a half-season behind d'Arnaud at the same age. Plus, the defense thing.

The Jays can afford to take things slowly with their top prospect given that Arencibia has acquitted himself nicely in the majors. One would expect d'Arnaud to spend most of 2012 in Vegas, but if he hits like most do in the desert to he could be up sometime in the second half, being worked into the lineup for his future as... starting catcher? Half-time catcher with some games at DH? Shipped out for another young piece? Who knows, but it's a nice problem to have. And he's a nice prospect to have.

Blue Jays 2011 Top Prospects: 10-1 | 88 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#245376) #
Great job, guys.

The top prospects in the organization are very good, but are not that much better than those further down the list.  Jacob Anderson has a significant chance to have a better major league career than Daniel Norris or Travis d'Arnaud.

The organizational strength is now in the outfield (with centerfield stronger than it has been in eons), behind the plate and on the mound.  The organizational weakness is in the middle infield, although it is possible that the organization could attempt a Biggio-like move for Carlos Perez.



PeteMoss - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#245377) #
Have the Jays really been that reluctant to send hitters to Las Vegas? Hech, Arencibia, Lawrie, Snider have all played in Las Vegas. On the pitching side I'd agree that they have some a tendency to avoid sending some prospects there, but I haven't noticed the same thing with hitters.
jerkstore - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#245378) #
Gose didn't come from the phillies in the Halladay trade. he came from the astros in the Oswalt deal.

it's funny how the taylor-wallace-gose deals all get blended into one.

there are very few prospect for prospect swaps. I can't think of any not involving the jays in recent memory.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#245379) #
This is a phenomenal list -- probably noy "nest in MLB," but in the discussion. Has anyone done a breakdown on how much of this list is AA-driven, how much is JP-driven and how much, if any at this point, is Ash-driven?
John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#245380) #
Great stuff guys. Click here for last years top 10 for reference.

Last years top 10 had the following reach the majors...
  • #10 Eric Thames
  • #7 Henderson Alvarez
  • #3 Zach Stewart
  • #2 JP Arencibia
  • #1 Kyle Drabek
MatO - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#245381) #

Jacob Anderson has a significant chance to have a better major league career than Daniel Norris or Travis d'Arnaud.

Whoa there Mike.  d'Arnaud is major league ready now.  Anderson has a significantly less than a 50% chance of actually reaching the majors based upon draft history.  There's simply not enough data in the few at bats in the GCL.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#245382) #
Yeah the Jays have not shown hesitation at all to promoting hitters to Vegas. Pitchers are a different story, and I think it is safe to say we will see 'Double A to Majors' promotions for most/all top pitching prospects as long as the AAA team is in Las Vegas, but I think AA probably likes promoting hitters to Vegas. Not only is Chad Mottola getting good reviews as hitting coach, but scrubs like David Cooper (sorry Coop, but it's true) can artificially inflate their numbers to possibly increase their value and the top talent (i.e. Lawrie) will just put up video game numbers anyway.
Doom Service - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#245385) #
An organization full of prospecty goodness could also help secure a more desireable AAA location the next time the affiliate shuffle window opens.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#245386) #
MatO, d'Arnaud may be major league ready but, at this point, he is likely to start next year in Las Vegas, and with his injury history and his position, his chance of having a good major league career is under 50%.  It would be very different if he were a centerfielder.  Like I said in my response to Jonny's questions about Arencibia, the development path of catchers is, in general much less favourable than for other positions.  In d'Arnaud's case, if his back or knees bark and his power suffers, he (unlike Joe Mauer say) doesn't really have a major-league game, as we saw from his performance in Dunedin last year. It's a tough position. 

Anderson's talents, and very limited performance numbers, give him a 20-30% chance of having a good major league career.  My point is that normally the difference between your #1 prospect and your #24 prospect is an order of magnitude rather than much less than that. 

Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#245387) #
"can artificially inflate their numbers to possibly increase their value"

Does this actually happen? Doesn't every other team know about Vegas and the PCL?
China fan - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#245388) #
I realize how difficult it is to compare a just-drafted prospect to an established older prospect, but I still feel that Daniel Norris is rated too highly on this list.  We've seen how many previous top draft picks (Jenkins, Cooper) have slid down the prospect lists as they move up to the AA level or higher.  On Norris specifically:  I don't find it plausible that he dropped to 74th in the draft solely because of his contract demands.  If he was truly a top-10 or top-20 talent, there are a number of teams that would have been willing to cough up an extra $1-million or $1.5-million to sign him, yet they passed on him repeatedly.  The other cited reason -- his delivery and command problems -- seem like a more probable reason for his decline to 74th spot in the draft.  If his future is dependent on adjustments in his delivery, let's wait and see if he can make those adjustments before we anoint him as the 8th-best prospect in a very strong minor-league system. Lots of prospects never succeed in making those adjustments, or lose something in their abilities when they make the adjustment.  I'd feel more comfortable with Norris as the 15th or 20th rated prospect in the Jays system until he achieves a bit more.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#245389) #
Hmm. Last years top 10 gave us 2 regulars, a starting pitcher, trade bait, and a guy who flopped (sorry Kyle, but you did).

What will this years crop do? I see 6 guys at AA or higher, all likely to get at least a cup of coffee this year. But none are getting a starting slot to start the season baring a trade of JPA. Any bets on which of the kids will become a regular starter in 2012?
MatO - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#245390) #
 d'Arnaud will be playing in LV only because of JPA not because of a lack of ability.  He can regress and still play in the majors for years.  The Rays had Shoppach hitting into a DP to end game 3 a couple of days ago and he's sucked for years on end.  Jeff Mathis gets regular playing time despite not having hit since the minors.  It doesn't take much to have a long career as a catcher and I'm pretty sure that teams will be always willing to give a guy of d'Arnauds pedigree a shot.  Only a catastrophic injury will stop him from having a career.  The bar for catchers is very low.  Anderson, Norris etc.  I`d like them to actually do something first before anointing them.  More than a couple of dozen AB`s.  I`ll be cheering for them though.
China fan - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#245391) #

....Any bets on which of the kids will become a regular starter in 2012?

Hutchison.  By the end of 2012, like Alvarez this season.  Mostly because the starting rotation is the position of greatest need for the Jays at the moment.

Hodgie - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#245392) #
"On Norris specifically: I don't find it plausible that he dropped to 74th in the draft solely because of his contract demands. If he was truly a top-10 or top-20 talent, there are a number of teams that would have been willing to cough up an extra $1-million or $1.5-million to sign him, yet they passed on him repeatedly."

I see no reason to assume this isn't only plausible but the greatest factor. Despite being picked with the first pick of the second round, Josh Bell was only drafted 61st overall, or thirteen spots ahead of Norris. Multiple teams had multiple opportunities to draft him as well and chose not to. Or do you believe he wasn't a top 20 talent either?

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#245393) #
MatO, I agree that Travis d'Arnaud has a very good chance to have a career as good as Jeff Mathis or Dioner Navarro.  That isn't saying much, and has very little to do with his prospect value.  It is the (rather slimmer) possibility that he might be a fine-fielding version of Mike Piazza or (more realistically) Gabby Hartnett, that is the heart of it. 

I am not anointing Anderson or Norris.  If Marisnick had been promoted in mid-season and had done the same thing in Dunedin as he did in Lansing, he would probably be the top prospect in the organization rather than d'Arnaud, in my view. 
Denoit - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#245394) #

"MatO, d'Arnaud may be major league ready but, at this point, he is likely to start next year in Las Vegas, and with his injury history and his position, his chance of having a good major league career is under 50%."

What exactly are you talking about here? Where do you get the 50% from? And his position is only going to help him. Last time I looked a good defensive catcher can carve out a major league career without being a very good hitter. Regardless of where d'Arnaud starts next year I think his chances being a solid Major League regular are really really good.

Spookie Wookie - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#245395) #
Great work on the list guys; love reading this every year.

For what it's worth I saw McGuire's Jul 27th start in New Britain and he was 88-91 on his fastball and ~72 on his curve. I don't think it's a particularly slow gun as I've seen Cecil as high as 92, Drabek at 93, and McGowan at 96 on the same one. I wouldn't be shocked if McGuire is traded this offseason, as he's a very "good looking" (in terms of size, poise) pitcher who has put up good numbers, but might not be seen by Jays' management as having the velocity required to succeed in the AL East (assuming he indeed isn't hitting 94 these days).

I was a bit surprised to see Marisnick ranked so high (and ahead of Gose). With the Gose/Wallace/Taylor thing, AA seemed to take a lot of flack around these parts for each of the two deals, but it seems like the players would probably be ranked Gose, Wallace, Taylor, from best to worst in that order, at this point.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#245396) #
If you look at 22 year old catchers with a similar profile to d'Arnaud- good enough defence, very good power and decent but not great contact skills/strike zone judgment, who have succeeded at double A (but with a spotty record prior due to injury), the drop-out rate is very high.  A  centerfielder with package of comparable package of skills and deficiencies, and performance, like a Grady Sizemore or an Alex Rios after their double A seasons, would have had a much better chance.  That is why Rios was a better prospect than Quiroz then. 

When I made my bet with Gleeman about Mauer, Quiroz, Mathis and Navarro after their great double A seasons, I anticipated that one would have a great career, two would make significant contributions and one would be a washout due to injury.  The first came true, the third came true, but the careers of Mathis and Navarro have to be considered disappointments.  My own very subjective opinion is that d'Arnaud is much more likely than Jimenez to have a top-drawer career, but that Jimenez is more likely to be an everyday contributing catcher (due to build and injury history). 

bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#245397) #
John N, That is a great question, about who might contribute to the big club in 2012.

I want to answer by taking the safe route. So I eliminate Gose & Marishnick as being too young/inexperienced for the jump and Innings limits & starting in Lansing as eliminating some pitchers.

So d'Arnaud maybe A Hech but he has a long way to go with the bat. Pitchers D McGuire should not have innings limits, Molina probably has an IP limit and Hutch could go maybe 180 innings. 3 months or 15 starts should show a lot, especially if lights out performances.

Something to consider also is that Rivera & the 3B position were waiting for a mid season occupant. That type of opportunity is less this year.

Injuries will provide opportunity as well. Guys on the 40 man may some how be given some kind of priority. Eg Molina & Drabek will both be on the 40 man roster and in the Minor leagues, trying to earn a call up.

#20 Cooper for sure IMO, but it will be his 3rd opportunity and he will have to go head to head with McDade in LV.
ogator - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#245398) #
  I would like to argue that Gose is going to see some serious playing time in the Majors in 2012.  Compare Gose with Rajai Davis.  They both can run but Gose can play defence, has a terrific throwing arm and seems to be developing quite a bit of power.  And a quick glance at his career minor league stats seems to indicate that his power is increasing and his caught stealings are going down.  He looks like a better player than Bourjos and Bourjos plays in the Major Leagues.  There are two factors that might keep him in the minors.  If Rasmus recovers and if either Thames or Snider (isn't one of the two surely going to be traded in the off season?) rises to his level of ability, the outfield in Toronto may be fully stocked.  But if Rasmus doesn't bounce back and if Snider or Thames don't show improvement, I don't know what is going to keep Gose in the minors.  He isn't a polished product yet but if Rasmus struggles, doesn't Gose become the obvious choice to play centrefield?
smcs - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#245399) #
Has anyone done a breakdown on how much of this list is AA-driven, how much is JP-driven and how much, if any at this point, is Ash-driven?

I'm on it. Surprisingly JP-heavy. Will give full-ish results when done.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#245400) #
"He isn't a polished product yet but if Rasmus struggles, doesn't Gose become the obvious choice to play centrefield?"

Probably not. Anthoploulos, so far, hasn't rushed anyone based on need - Lawrie stayed in AAA for half the year despite third base being a gaping void in Toronto. If Rasmus continues to tank or get hurt, I'd expect Davis gets most of the time in centre.

There's also the possibility that, based on his current skillset, Gose might struggle to hit .200 in the majors right now. I don't think he has enough defence to balance that out.
Ishai - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#245401) #
Does Kyle Drabek count as graduated? He still feels like a prospect: he needs to do some hard work on some fundamental asoects if baseball, and if he figures it out he can be really good. I'm not sure what the criteria for qualifying as a prospect is, but if Drabek did qualify, where would he be on this list? I think I would have him in the 5-8 range.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#245402) #

Other than his K rate, Gose's batting average seems to be his biggest concern for many. Yet here is Brett Gardner's line from this year which is very similar to Gose's: .259/ .345/ .369, 49/62 SB. Combined with his elite OF defence, that was worth 5.1 fWAR, 4.4 rWAR.

Even if Gose can maintain what he's doing now into the majors (and yeah, that may be a big if), an elite OF defender with his skillset really doesn't have to put up great statlines to be an extemely valuable MLB player.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#245403) #
The key stat for Gardner is OBP (career .353). If Gose can play elite CF defense and get on base at a similar clip, he'll be a tremendously valuable player.
smcs - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#245405) #
Has anyone done a breakdown on how much of this list is AA-driven, how much is JP-driven and how much, if any at this point, is Ash-driven?

Ash-influenced
  • Travis d'Arnaud -- Doc trade
  • Anthony Gose -- Doc for Taylor for Wallace for Gose
Ricciardi picks and signings
  • Jake Marisnick -- 2009 3rd round -- comp pick from NY for A.J. Burnett
  • Drew Hutchinson -- 2009 15th round
  • Nestor Molina - amateur free agent signed in 2006
  • A.J. Jimenez -- 2008 8th round
  • Carlos Perez -- amateur free agent signed in 2007 or 2008
  • Joel Carreno -- amateur free agent signed in 2006
  • Moises Sierra -- amateur free agent signed in 2006
  • Michael Crouse -- 2008 16th round
  • David Cooper -- 2008 1st round
  • Chad Jenkins -- 2009 1st round
  • Michael McDade -- 2007 6th round
AA Picks with Ricciardi influence
  • Noah Syndergaard -- 2010 supplemental for failure to sign James Paxton. Paxton was picked with compensation for losing AJ Burnett
  • Justin Nicolino -- 2010 2nd round compensation for losing Marco Scutaro
  • Daniel Norris -- 2011 2nd round compensation for losing Scott Downs
  • Aaron Sanchez -- 2010 1st round compensation for losing Marco Scutaro
  • Marcus Knecht -- 2010 3rd round compensation for failure to sign Jake Barrett
  • Asher Wojciechowski -- 2010 1st round compensation for losing Rod Barajas
  • Jacob Anderson -- 2011 1st round compensation for losing Scott Downs
AA Picks and Signings
  • Adeiny Hechavarria -- 2010 amateur free agent
  • Deck McGuire -- 2010 1st round pick
  • Chris Hawkins -- 2010 3rd round pick
  • Adonys Cardona -- 2011 amateur free agent
  • Kevin Comer -- 2011 1st round compensation for "losing" Miguel Olivo
  • Mitchell Taylor -- 2010 7th round
  • Sean Nolin -- 2010 6th round
  • Dickie Joe Thon -- 2010 5th round
  • Eric Arce -- 2010 27th round
  • Joe Musgrove -- 2011 1st round compensation for losing John Buck
AA Trades
  • Travis d'Arnaud
  • Anthony Gose
So: 11 acquired by JP Ricciardi; 7 acquired by AA using compensatory picks from losing Ricciardi-signed players or unsigned draft picks; 12 acquired by AA.
MatO - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#245406) #
In the history of the draft, the 35th overall pick has resulted in 3 good to very-good players.  Johnny Damon and Mark Langston easily being the 2 best with Aaron Rowand a distant 3rd.  That`s it.  The best of the rest are Jason Marquis, Mark Bellhorn and Brian Hunter.  It`s ugly.  I`d say that Anderson has a 20-30% chance of reaching the majors at least for a cup of coffee with at most a 10% chance of having a good career.  I`d put d`Arnaud at a 90% chance of  having some career and  more than a 60% chance of having a good career.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#245407) #
                 Lv    Age     Slash           wOBA wRC+
Player A   A     19  .313/.377/.525  .393    146
Player B   A     20  .320/.392/.500  .413    160
Player C   AA   20  .262/.357/.461  .366    121
Player D   AA   22  .311/.371/.542  .402    150
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#245408) #
Sorry about hitting submit instead of previewing the formats again.  Anyway, little fun for the Box....fabulous noprize to the winner.  (Player A-D are or were all Jay prospects)
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#245409) #
  • Noah Syndergaard 
  • Justin Nicolino
  • Daniel Norris 
  • Aaron Sanchez 
  • Marcus Knecht 
  • Asher Wojciechowski 
  • Jacob Anderson

All hail compensatory draft picks!!!!

hypobole - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#245410) #

I hate the term "in the history of the draft", because it leaves out so many variables. Strength of draft (just off the top of my head, compare 2005 to 2000). Willingness to pay overslot, Strength of scouting. Strength of player development in organization.

I'm not saying Anderson will be a sure-fire star or even a major leaguer, but I believe the 4 variables above all boost his chances. 

John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#245411) #
Thought I'd check i the guys who AA drafted 'with Ricciardi influence' could be traced back further.

Drafted due to losing Marco Scutaro: Scutaro was acquired for Kristian Bell (11th round draft pick in 2004) and Graham Godfrey (34th round 2006 - ERA+ of 104 for Oakland this year over 25 IP). Can't be traced back further than JPR.

Downs & Barajas & Paxton via AJ Burnett: Signed as free agents by JPR. Can't be traced back further than JPR.

Jake Barrett was a 3rd round non-comp pick by JPR.

John Buck was a free agent signed by AA
Olivo was acquired for cash by AA

Dang. Was hoping to see a trace route back to Gillick. IE: Cecil via pick gained by losing Justin Speier who was acquired for Sandy Nin (JPR amateur free agent) & Mark Hendrickson (20th round 1997) thus Cecil is a product of Ash & JPR. McGowan via pick for Graeme Lloyd who was acquired via a trade for Roger Clemens who signed as a free agent under Ash.

Sigh. Can't find a link back to Gillick anymore.
smcs - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#245412) #
Adam Lind was drafted using a compensatory pick for losing Kelvim Escobar, who was signed as an amateur free agent in 1992.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#245413) #

All hail compensatory draft picks!!!!

I really like Noah and Knecht, but  are they much better than if we had signed Paxton (another top drawer prospect despite what Beeston did to him)  and Jake Barrett (projected top 10 2012 pick)?  I dunno.
TamRa - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#245414) #
I, for one, would start Gose back at AA for half a season, then let him get a season and a half in Vegas with an idea of having him over-due for the majors by the spring of 2014 - unless an opportune trade or unfortunate injury produced a serious need in the majors.

We have more outfielders than our roster can hold, and at least three young guys who's future needs to be sorted out with only two available slots to do it in. There is NO reason to put skates on Gose and get him here as quickly as possible.

Plus the bonus is he's that much more polished and ready to produce by that point.

Likewise, I'd start d'Arnaud in AAA, but i'd be committed to leaving him there all year (again, barring injury/trade) AND i'd start him back there for the first couple of months of 2013 before promoting him and slowly integrating him into the line-up - with an idea of dealing JPA after 2013 if all goes well. that way you get the best value from JP by using his pre-arbitration years, and the best trade return in that you are dealing an established guy with a track record but also a guy with three years of control left.

I think our hunger, as fans, to see these guys come at a run is understandable - particularly when the major league team is in need as when Snider was on the rise - but is neither the best development plan, or the one AA will employ. At least, when it comes to the hitters.

the pitchers on the other hand do seem to move pretty quickly and for the most part that's worked out pretty well (Drabek being the exception)


Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#245415) #
In the history of the draft, the 35th overall pick has resulted in 3 good to very-good players.

d'Arnaud was the 37th overall pick.  You figure that one excellent year at double A for a catcher changes the odds from under 10% to over 60%, despite injury and so-so performance the previous two years?  I don't. 
dan gordon - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#245416) #

Great looking group of prospects.  I have the same guys in my Top 10.  The Gose/Marisnick comp is an interesting one.  Both are CF's, steal bases and are developing power.  Marisnick hit for a much better average, but at 2 levels lower, and Gose is only 8 months older than Marisnick.  To perform as well as he did at his age in AA is quite a feat.  Even moreso when you consider that he was a pitcher until a few years ago.  Look at the increase in Gose's HR's over the last 3 seasons - here's a guy stealing 70 bases who is developing into a power hitter, too.  Would be great to see him reduce the K's and improve his batting average, but there is a lot of time for him to improve in those areas.  I'd like to see him get another half season at least in AA.   I heard this season that he was getting impatient that he still wasn't in the majors and that he would switch back to pitching in another year if he didn't make it.  Maybe just letting off some steam, but he needs to understand that he is actually way, way ahead of schedule, especially when you consider that he was a pitcher until recently.  Gose's ceiling is very, very high.

Love the K/BB ratios some of these young pitchers have.  Great to see these guys getting promotions and continuing to show outstanding results at higher levels.  As always, you need to hope for continued good health from these young pitchers.  It is going to make a huge improvement to the big league team if even a couple of these guys reach their full potential.  Look how far the Rays got with their young arms like Price, Shields, Hellickson, and now Matt Moore, who looks like another star in the making.  Presumably they can now trade Davis or Niemann for some help elsewhere, like they did with Garza.  When you get a pipeline of pitching prospects like that going, it's a gold mine.

Interesting question about Drabek.  He's not included because of his mlb time this year, but if he was eligible, where would you put him?  I'd probably have him somewhere around 10.  He's still just 23.  Have a look at his K/BB ratios, though and you'll see that, outside of 2009, when he was about 3 to 1, his ratio was never really eye-catching.  One of the better gauges of a pitcher's potential.

MatO - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#245417) #

d'Arnaud was the 37th overall pick. You figure that one excellent year at double A for a catcher changes the odds from under 10% to over 60%, despite injury and so-so performance the previous two years? I don't.

So you figure a couple of dozen at bats in the GCL makes it more likely that Anderson will have a better major league career than d'Arnaud?  I don't.

Thomas - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#245418) #
I really like Noah and Knecht, but  are they much better than if we had signed Paxton (another top drawer prospect despite what Beeston did to him)  and Jake Barrett (projected top 10 2012 pick)?  I dunno.

I don't think so. Paxton will appear on the Top 100 prospects lists when they are released. If he doesn't make the Top 50, he won't miss by much. He's more highly-regarded than Syndergaard right now. Jake Barrett is indeed ranked among the Top 10 in many 2012 draft lists. Would you trade Knecht for a pick in the Top 10 of the 2012 draft, if such a deal was allowed? I think you'd be foolish to turn that down.
Matthew E - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#245419) #
Sigh. Can't find a link back to Gillick anymore.

Adam Lind was drafted using a compensatory pick for losing Kelvim Escobar, who was signed as an amateur free agent in 1992.

This is cool.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#245420) #
I don't figure that Anderson has a better chance of being a good major leaguer than d'Arnaud, and I never said so.  What I said was that the difference in their chances of achieving this kind of success was much less than is typical for a #1 prospect and a #24 prospect.  Or, to put it another way, I would be surprised if the Jays #1-#10 is the best in the major leagues but I would be surprised if the Jays #21-#30 isn't. 
MatO - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#245421) #

I hate the term "in the history of the draft", because it leaves out so many variables. Strength of draft (just off the top of my head, compare 2005 to 2000). Willingness to pay overslot, Strength of scouting. Strength of player development in organization.

The history of the draft takes into account strong and weak drafts.  Was this a strong draft?  We won't know for a few years.  No one had Anderson as a 1st round talent who fell.  From what I've read, Anderson at 35 was a bit of an overdraft.  Is there any evidence that the Jays are better at scouting and player development than all the other teams over the history of the draft?

MatO - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#245422) #

Jacob Anderson has a significant chance to have a better major league career than Daniel Norris or Travis d'Arnaud.

Mike.  Maybe we're disagreeing on the definition of significant chance?  To me that means >50%.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#245423) #
Not sure how the Jays rank overall, but for the 5th round the Jays have been very, very good. Dave Stieb, Pat Hentgen, Michael Young and Mike Timlin were 5th round picks. Also Rzep, Dickie Thon, Tyler Pastornicky.

Not bad. A near HOF'er, a Cy Young winner, a MVP candidate, a solid reliever for nearly 20 years and various others. By that stage of the draft you rarely find gems, but the Jays have unearthed a few.
Denoit - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#245424) #
"Even moreso when you consider that he was a pitcher until a few years ago."

Not sure where some people get there information around here. But yes Gose pitched, like many athletes in high school with good arms. But he also played CF. Its not like he just switched when he was drafted. Its always a good time when a prospect list comes out cause everyone turns into a scout.
Beyonder - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#245425) #
Another homer for Gose in today''s AFL game.  Leadoff shot. Off to a great start down there.
Anders - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#245426) #
Mike, I think your points about d'Arnaud are a bit off base - he hadn't really hit before this year, but even still he was very well regarded for his physical tools by BA, Keith Law, etc. Anderson wasn't even a top-10 prep hitter and has no track record while d'Arnaud is one of the top-3 catching prospects in baseball.

I do agree with your point about the depth of the system. I don't think that the Jays top-10 is especially phenomenal - I'd guess they maybe have 5 or 6 guys on the various top-100 lists people will put out (which to be fair is very good), and perhaps only 2 top-50 guys. There are a lot of guys at the bottom of the list that you can get really excited about. As I believe you said the other day Mike, if Sean Nolin is your 27th best prospect that's not a bad system.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#245427) #
OK, Mat, it's linguistics.  "significant chance" does not mean "more probable than not", at least to me.  I think that d'Arnaud's chances of being a good player are perhaps 1 and 1/2 to 2 times that of Anderson. 

Some lawyers (no names) spend half their professional careers dealing with significant possibilities as opposed to likelihoods.  It may not be the most glamorous thing, but it does put bread on the table. 

Anders - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#245428) #
For what it's worth, these are the guys that I think will probably make "the lists": d'Arnaud, Marisnick, Hutchison, Gose, Nicolino. After that, in rough decreasing order of probability: Syndergaard, Hechavarria, Norris, McGuire, Molina. I don't think anyone after Norris makes a list though.

Disclaimer: I am not a minor league expert by any means, this is just more my perception of the way people perceived Jays prospects/prospects in general.

ogator - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#245429) #

Although it may not mean all that much, Gose went deep again today and the game has barely begun.  He will not be spending a year and a half in Vegas.  No one needs that much time to learn which hotels have the best buffets.

smcs - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#245430) #
Aha! Here's a good one: Glenallen Hill was drafted by the Jays in 1983. Mark Whiten was drafted by the Jays in 1986. Denis Boucher was signed by the Jays in 1987 as an amateur free agent. These three were traded for Turner Ward and Tom Candiotti in 1991. When Tom Candiotti left, the Jays used a supplemental pick on Shannon Stewart in 1992. He was traded for Bobby Kielty, who was traded for Ted Lilly. When Ted Lilly left as a free agent, the Jays took Trystan Magnuson with a supplemental pick. Magnuson was traded, along with Danny Farquhar, who came back to the Jays for David Purcey, to the Oakland A's for Rajai Davis.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#245431) #
I want to say and hopefully am correct that:-
1)In his early drafts JP went college heavy. Really heavy.
2) At some point 2006 & after he mixed in more HS picks.
3) The 2007 HS picks are really still young like J Talley born in 1989. So I would not completely rule them out.
4) Quite a few good HS picks in 2008 & 2009.
So JP did change his philosophy a bit. BUT he failed to sign many of those late round HS picks in 2008 & 09... after round 20 or so. Maybe it was cost.

AA's 2010 & 2011 drafts were very HS concentrated.
I have to still look at the later rounds after round 20. In 2010 he did not successfully sign many late picks. Was the failure in HS or College picks? In 2011 I have to still check but AA may have drafted more college picks in the hope of better signing success.

I will need till the winter meetings to finish my study.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#245432) #
Love these lists, really great job all around ranking a very tough to rank system.

I still don't like some of the inconsistencies - Gose and Crouse are ranked down because apparently they're missing the most important tool (contact), yet Cooper gets little to no credit for having the best contact tool in the system.

That's just a minor quibble though, and all around I agree with the list within a slot or two for each prospect.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#245433) #

Sorry to abandon you for a few hours.  Reading over the comments, I can tell you were all waiting with baited breath.

Player A and C is Travis Snider.  Player  B is Marisnick and D is D'Arnaud.

Travis serves as a interesting comparison for Lansing and Age-20 production.  I threw D'Arnaud in there for giggles.

uglyone - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#245434) #
  • Nestor Molina - amateur free agent signed in 2006
  • A.J. Jimenez -- 2008 8th round
  • Carlos Perez -- amateur free agent signed in 2007 or 2008
  • Joel Carreno -- amateur free agent signed in 2006
  • Moises Sierra -- amateur free agent signed in 2006


  • and you can add Henderson Alvarez in there too.

    That is some pretty spectacular work by JP and his scouts on the IFA market.
    uglyone - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#245435) #
    ach, strike Jimenez from that list, obviously.
    TimberLee - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#245437) #
    Thanks to those who contributed to these prospect reports. Aside from the fact that they give hope to us Jays fans, it's great to have this much information in one place, accompanied by your insightful commentary.
    Anders - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#245438) #
    I still don't like some of the inconsistencies - Gose and Crouse are ranked down because apparently they're missing the most important tool (contact), yet Cooper gets little to no credit for having the best contact tool in the system.

    Gose and Crouse both have good secondary skills - power, eye, speed - that increase their value as hitters. Gose plays CF and Crouse will end up in a corner, so they have some defensive value, and both are young for their leagues. Cooper by contrast plays the easiest defensive position, isn't a good baserunner, isn't especially young, and has poor power for a first baseman. Contact is important, but it isn't the only determinate of value - we consider a wide range of factors in ranking the prospects, and given that 8 of us vote based on varying criteria, I don't really think there's any way for us to be inconsistent unless it's systemic.

    Also, Cooper really doesn't even come remotely close to having the best contact tool in the system

    John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#245439) #
    Always fun to see how guys are acquired and (obviously) I love seeing how a pick from the 80's could still have influence on the roster today.

    Lets hope Davis and Lind get traded someday for some high end prospects who spend a decade here before being traded as well - it'd be nice to have it be that the roster is influenced by Gillick decades after he left (16 years and counting).
    jerjapan - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#245440) #
    Also, Cooper really doesn't even come remotely close to having the best contact tool in the system

    So who does?
    Spifficus - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#245441) #
    'contact tool' seems like an odd way to phrase it, but taking that literally as opposed to the commonly referred to hit tool, my vote is with Eagle Eyes Adeiny.
    greenfrog - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#245453) #
    Tweet from KLaw on Gose in the AFL:

    keithlaw
    Looks good, swing much cleaner than I remembered "@mwash1983: @keithlaw What's your early take on Gose?"
    17 hours ago
    hypobole - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#245463) #
    'contact tool' seems like an odd way to phrase it, but taking that literally as opposed to the commonly referred to hit tool, my vote is with Eagle Eyes Adeiny.

    Las Vegas #'s

    % of swings without contact: Cooper 9.9, Hech 19.4

    % of PA's ending in a swinging strikeout: Cooper 5.7, Hech 14.7

    Spifficus - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#245468) #
    Ok, where did you snag those numbers from, because I definitely want 'em!

    As for Adeiny, I'm making a guess that he's swinging at a lot worse pitches then Cooper, and therefore the numbers aren't going to reflect his contact-making skill (which I could be inventing). Also, Cooper's 2011 is so far out of line with his 2009 and 2010 that I'm discounting it significantly. Nothing scientific or empirical; I'm really just making a WAG.
    hypobole - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#245480) #

    Ok, where did you snag those numbers from, because I definitely want 'em!
    http://www.statcorner.com/batter.php?id=588751

    http://www.statcorner.com/batter.php?id=476036

    damos - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#245481) #
    Just listened to the Baseball Today podcast w/ Karabell & KLaw.  They got an email from someone about Gose & it seems that KLaw's assessment may have gone up a tick or two based on the few at bats he's seen in the AFL. 

    In his response he notes that:

    -'Gose is interesting (!)' 
    -appears stronger & has 'more juice' than when he last saw him
    -Swing has 'cleaned up'
    -Very good fastball hitter (appeared to be looking fastball on his 1st pitch HR)
    -Doesn't appear to have any mechanical issues w/ swing
    -May have a pitch recognition issue. 
    -Has difficulty with changes of speed

    Chuck - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#245487) #

    May have a pitch recognition issue. 

    His very high K rate and low batting average would be consistent with this assessment.

    Someone mentioned Gardner as a comp, or perhaps was just likening their slash lines this year. Devon White is the comp that jumps to mind for me. Power, speed, defense, some walks, some strike zone judgment issues, not a terribly high AVG or OBP but not crappy either, good SLG for a center fielder. A broad skillset that's easy to undervalue because no one area is exceptional. The Jays could do worse than to have Gose grow up to be Devon White.

     

    Spifficus - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#245488) #
    Bah! I keep forgetting about statcorner. Thanks.

    Also, that's encouraging news about Gose. If this holds up (the swing mechanics stuff, in particular), that's definitely good news; the pitch recognition issues are more normal for young hitters and something natural development and reps can fix.
    Mike Green - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#245489) #
    Chuck, at age 20, White was in the Midwest League and put up a .253/.326/.412 with 124 strikeouts in 117 games.  The line would fit in with Gose's minor league record to date, but Gose is basically 2 years ahead of him from a developmental perspective, and he gets on base more already. At age 22, Mike Cameron put up a .244/.355/.429 in double A with 104 strikeouts in 107 games.  Eric Davis had a fairly similar line to Gose at age 20, but again in the Midwest League.  None of them struck out quite as often as Gose did, however. 

    Gose's offensive potential is very high, but while he is apparently a very good defender, I doubt that he has the ability of White or Cameron in this regard.



    bpoz - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#245494) #
    Devo Vs Gose.

    Arm strength?
    Gose gets the nod for talking more IMO. Even without Twitter, Devo was quiet. Gose tweets a lot of praise for his team mates and he may have been the one to tell of Player? hitting the Hotel.
    I respect Devo and somehow can only picture him jumping with his back to the wall & making a spectacular catch.
    Chuck - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#245495) #
    Thanks Mike. I did know that Gose was 2 years ahead of Devon White which of course is very huge. Based on numbers alone, his upside has him outperforming Devon White, and maybe even by a lot. I'm not projecting him to "only" be Devon White (not that I pretend to have any skill at projecting young players), just saying that if he can become Devon White, that's a greedy enough aspiration.
    hypobole - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#245499) #

    Gose's offensive potential is very high, but while he is apparently a very good defender

    How good a defender is Gose? We know he has the tools. But how are his reads and routes? How accurrate is his plus-plus arm?

    The questions and chatter I've heard have seem to have all dealt with his hitting abilities, so i have no clue as to how polished is his defensive side.

    Anyone have a recent link regarding his D?

    Super Bluto - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#245502) #
    Like many Latino players Hechavarria is not a patient hitter,

    You mean Latino players like Bautista, Santana, Cabrera, Abreu and Ortiz, all of whom finished in the Top 10 in walks in the AL this year?


    Gerry - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#245504) #
    Like many Latino players Hechavarria is not a patient hitter

    Last I checked many didn't mean all.

    The saying "you can't walk off the island" wasn't just a dream.
    Super Bluto - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#245510) #
    Last I checked many didn't mean all.

    I never suggested 'many' meant 'all'. But it certainly suggests a large or considerable number, a large percentage. The list provided proves otherwise.






    scottt - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 05:29 AM EDT (#245515) #
    That doesn't prove anything.

    Let's face it, many prospects don't walk a lot. Good luck proving otherwise.
    Mike Green - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#245520) #
    I did a BBRef Play Index search of players from the DR with more than 3000 career PAs.  It does seem that there has been a decline in the number of really free swingers from the DR over the years.  If you look at the walk trailers, they are disproportionately guys from the 60s through 80s like the Alous, Julian Javier, Manny Mota, Rafael Ramirez.  A casual glance suggests that a version of sabermetric thinking has made its way to the DR ("if you swing at 10 balls out of the strike zone and hit 2 line drive singles, one infield single, three pop-ups , one short fly ball and four ground ball outs, the coach will not be happy), as it has throughout all of baseball. 
    jgadfly - Saturday, October 08 2011 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#245593) #
    RE: Gose as Devon White comp ... Would I be getting ahead of myself and piling on the snowball if I noted that his defense may be  Devon comparable but with the caveat that he has a Jesse Barfield arm and Rickey Henderson basestealing speed and that some prognosticators are saying his defense is 'GoldGlove' caliber now ... of course that could mean 'Derek Jeter at shortstop'  type of caliber as well ?
    greenfrog - Saturday, October 08 2011 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#245594) #
    Gose is getting some love in Keith Law's latest ESPN Insider column (Law has been covering the AFL). Here is a brief excerpt: "Gose is a 70 runner with a 70 arm (although the one game throw I saw was more of a 60, if you want to nit-pick) who should have plenty of range for centerfield, so the offensive baseline for him to be an average everyday player in the majors is pretty low. He still has a lot of improvements ahead of him to become a star but I am very optimistic about him reaching that."
    hypobole - Sunday, October 09 2011 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#245615) #
    Also mentioned by KLaw is that AG's stance has been changed, allowing him to generate some power and maintain a much more consistent swing. KLaw admitted he was down on the Gose/Wallace deal at the time, but although AG has some rough edges to smooth out, such as his 2 strike approach,  it appears to be paying off for the Jays in a huge way.
    hypobole - Monday, October 10 2011 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#245645) #
    The BA PCL top 20 list is up behind the paywall, so I'll have to wait a bit, although (no surprise) Lawrie seems to be #1.  In todays Ask BA, it was mentioned that the Padres and Rays had the most prospects make their lists with 18 each. Interesting to see what the managers/scouts thought of Cooper. Despite him leading the league in hitting, I'm not expecting to see him in the top 10, although I imagine he should make the back end of the list.
    92-93 - Monday, October 10 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#245648) #
    Cooper was not on the list. Callis - "Las Vegas inflates numbers; he doesn't have 1B power."
    Thomas - Monday, October 10 2011 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#245654) #
    Interestingly, but perhaps not surprisingly, the write-up states that Hosmer would have taken the number one spot ahead of Lawrie if he was eligible.
    TJ Caino - Monday, October 10 2011 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#245681) #
    Thames ranked 15th.
    bpoz - Wednesday, October 19 2011 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#245922) #
    There may be little interest in this, but I did a count of HS & College players taken in round 21-50 in AA's 2 drafts.

    2010: HS 17 picks, 2 signed
    College 13 picks, 10 signed Total 30 picks, 12 signed.

    2011: HS 8 picks, 2 signed
    College 22 picks, 18 signed Total 30 picks, 20 signed.
    Gerry - Wednesday, October 19 2011 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#245924) #
    Picture of Travis d'Arnaud's left hand. He tweeted that the hand is good and he is feeling alright. He injured his thumb when catching, he was not hit on it.
    John Northey - Thursday, October 20 2011 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#245929) #
    Sounds like AA after the 20th goes for high school kids who have potential but are unlikely to sign and college kids who don't have much potential but are good filler material & easy signs. Smart move really. If you are in college and not drafted until the 21st round you don't have potential, but high school kids could have just said 'not going to sign' and this is a way to take a flyer on them just in case they actually will.
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