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Where there is smoke there is fire. There are now numerous tweets and reports saying that the Jays and Red Sox are in serious talks over compensation for John Farrell. The latest from Kevin Kennedy says:

#RedSox look like they will land John Farrell as manager from #BlueJays. Compensation talks getting serious, players will be headed to TOR.

Nick Cafardo tweeted something similar earlier.

So, we have debated and polled Farrell's exit and the feelings are definitely mixed. But now, who will replace Farrell? Will it be an internal candidate such as Lovullo, Wakamatsu or Butterfield. Or will it be an external candidate like Sandy Alomar?

Who do you want?

This thread can track all the latest managerial news.

Tomorrow could be a big day. The Fan said yesterday that AA will be on the radio with Jeff Blair at 9am tomorrow, Friday. Will there be news by then?

Update: AA has just cancelled his Fan appearance for tomorrow.

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John Northey - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#264565) #
I'd go for Dave Martinez - he has been viewed as a manager in waiting while being the bench coach in Tampa. He has been learning from one of the best there is so I'd figure some of that would rub off.

For guys who have experience I'd lean towards Larry Dierker as he won his division in all but one season that he managed. He is in his 60's now so might not be interested but if he is I'd scoop him up.
uglyone - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#264567) #
joeblow - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#264568) #
The team with the biggest facial hair always seems to win the Stanley Cup World Series. So Dave Martinez looks like a good option.
electric carrot - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#264569) #
I can go for Dave Martinez too.  Maybe he could teach the jays how to beat Tampa.  And I really want AA to gauge the Red Sox.  Let's get a useful piece!  How about some pitching?
Richard S.S. - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#264570) # discusses compensation for Farrell.  I contend that compensation gained in the deals for Theo Epstein and Ozzie Guillen are comparable to singles being hit.  I believe A.A. must have a grand slam hit, in comparison, in the compensation obtained.   Nothing less should be accepted by fans.

Even Boston expects to pay heavily for Farrell.  I would accept Dustin Pedroia - or - Chris Carpenter and Rubby De La Rosa plus PTBNL.

hypobole - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#264571) #
"And I really want AA to gauge the Red Sox."

So you want AA to gauge how much he can gouge the Sox?

Martinez seems too easy an answer, and he would be my first choice to replace Farrell. But if he is seen by us as the best candidate, why hasn't he been offered any of the managerial openings that have come up the past couple of years?

greenfrog - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#264572) #
Torey Lovullo would seem to be a possible "interim" choice. Let him take the reins for a year and then see where the team is at.
Gerry - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#264573) #
On one hand Blue Jay fans can say that the RedSox should pay through the nose for Farrell. But the RedSox might have spoken with Farrell, or as they say "sources close to Farrell", and if indeed Farrell and AA had some serious disagreements this season, the Sox know they don't have to pay through the nose.

The compensation discussion is a form of a game of chicken. The RedSox will be saying they want to "consider" Farrell but they have other candidates they love. The Jays will say they too love Farrell, they are happy to have him come back next year and they don't want him going to a division rival.

The Jays will ask Boston to pay a steep price and Boston will say they won't. The compensation will depend on whether the RedSox believe the Jays will cave in the end because they don't want Farrell back.
greenfrog - Thursday, October 18 2012 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#264574) #
I will be disappointed if the Jays receive only a marginal player/prospect in return, although I'm not sure the Jays have a ton of leverage in this situation. I do think they need to receive at least one significant prospect. Remember that Boston would be getting not only Farrell's managerial assets (whatever you think of them), but also a ton of intel about the Jays' organization from top to bottom.
92-93 - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#264576) #
Who the heck is Kevin Kennedy, and why is he being quoted on Batter's Box as if he's an official source? Weak.
hypobole - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#264577) #
Who the heck is Kevin Kennedyand why is he being quoted on Batter's Box as if he's an official source? Weak.

You mean Kevin Kennedy, former manager of the Red Sox and current co-host on MLB Network Radio? And nowhere did Gerry mention KK was an "official source".
dan gordon - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#264578) #

I'll be quite happy if Farrell goes and they get a reasonably decent player in return.  I'm not impressed with Farrell's on-field decision making, so I figure it helps the Jays and hurts the Sox if he goes there.  To get a decent player would be a nice bonus. 

No way are they going to get a Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Middlebrooks type player, but they may be able to add a useful piece along the lines of an Aviles, Ross, Doubront type of player.  Or maybe they go to the farm system for a solid prospect.

Jonny German - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#264580) #
Remember that Boston would be getting not only Farrell's managerial assets (whatever you think of them), but also a ton of intel about the Jays' organization from top to bottom.

This sounds rather generous - Farrell didn't appear to have much of a clue about many players on his major league roster this season, nevermind the whole organization.

It's bizarre to me that the Sox can look at Farrell's tenure in Toronto and be so eager to have him as their manager. I'll be happy to have him gone, and any compensation is just gravy.
Landomar - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 05:27 AM EDT (#264581) #

Daniel Nava?  I'll take it.

Nava would be a cheap platoon partner for Rajai Davis in left, and would add some much needed OBP to our lineup.  If there's one thing that Nava can do well, it's stand there and take walks.  Nava/Davis would work well as a time wasting option so that Anthony Gose can get a bit more AAA time to start the season.

China fan - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#264584) #
From Bob Elliott's latest:

The Boston Globe reports compensation for Farrell would be a pitcher who could help the big league team and a double-A prospect. The Red Sox could part with Chris Carpenter -- obtained from the Chicago Cubs in the deal that allowed Theo Epstein to escape Fenway Park for Wrigely Field. The player could also be somebody like right-hander Clayton Mortensen, 26, a first rounder of the Cardinals in 2007 (1-1, 3.21 ERA) or Alex Wilson, 25, (5-3, 3.72 ERA).
Original Ryan - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#264586) #
At this point I'd happily accept an autographed photo of Wally the Green Monster in exchange for Farrell. Good riddance.
Mike Green - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#264587) #
I would take Viggo Mortensen if Clayton is untouchable. He'd be good to have in the dugout just in case the opposing pitcher was taking liberties high and inside. 
SK in NJ - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#264588) #

Remember that Boston would be getting not only Farrell's managerial assets (whatever you think of them), but also a ton of intel about the Jays' organization from top to bottom.

I don't know how true that is. How much "intel" did the Jays get about the Red Sox organization when Farrell came over? Even if they did, what good did it do?

Farrell is not going to command a great package. A reliever who can help the big league club and a fringe prospect is probably what I would be expecting. Nothing great. Then again, as far as I'm concerned, getting rid of Farrell is a net positive without getting anything back. Terrible decision by AA two years ago to hire him.

Dave Till - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#264589) #
I think that John Farrell and Cito Gaston seem remarkably similar as managers - good communicators, but not exceptionally good at in-game strategies. Farrell also seems to have trouble deciding on his bullpen (which may be understandable, given some of the options he had to work with). This year, the Jays often brought up a pitcher, sent him out there a couple of times, and then sent him straight back down.

I'm okay with Farrell as the manager, but he's not making enough of a difference for it to be worth fighting to keep him. If he really wants to go to Boston, I'd say grab the compensation and let him go.

But I have to wonder: why on earth does he want to manage the Boston Red Sox, if indeed he really does? The Jays have a better farm system and finished ahead of the Sox in the standings. If he actually prefers the Sox, it's a sign that he really does have questionable judgement, and shouldn't be managing the Jays. 

Forkball - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#264590) #

It's bizarre to me that the Sox can look at Farrell's tenure in Toronto and be so eager to have him as their manager.

I think their interest has almost entirely to do with what they know about Farrell when he was with the Red Sox and almost none about what he's done in Toronto (whether there's ideal thinking on their part is another issue).

I expect the compensation to be very underwhelming (but a little more than the Epstein or Guillen compensation).  If the Jays really wanted Farrell there would be no discussion (or the compensation would be so high Boston wouldn't be interested).  If the Jays are in talks, which there's no reason to believe they're not right now, they don't really want Farrell, Boston can deduce that as well, and Boston won't offer anything of significance.

I did find one of the Boston compensation articles amusing when they suggested Zach Stewart as a possibility.

bpoz - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#264591) #
Many, myself included believe M Sciocia & J Maddon to be very good managers. They are also experienced.

I can see Scioscia staying with LAA, as they are a rich organization and seem to bring in help when needed. Pujols & Grienke. But J Maddon is with a poor organization. IMO the finances will never be there except by shared revenue and whatever else. TB does own great pitching, maybe the best and an excellent farm system. Still he will never get the spotlight like a J Torre in NYY. Boston, Detroit, NYM, Texas and every other rich team willing to spend should go after him. So I really like him and believe that it makes sense that he is available.
Forkball - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#264592) #

But I have to wonder: why on earth does he want to manage the Boston Red Sox, if indeed he really does? 

The minor leagues could be a small advantage , but I think the only reason why someone would prefer the Jays is less dysfunction in the front office. 

I think given the choice, 90%+ of people in baseball would take the Red Sox manager position over the Blue Jays manager position (although it'd be interesting if an insider took a informal poll on the subject).   

Chuck - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#264593) #
I'm in agreement with Forkball. That Farrell has, presumably, expressed an overt interest in going to Boston suggests that he needs to leave Toronto, if even to go nowhere at all. You can't return to manage a team that is now clearly your Plan B. How do you then own the lockerroom? And given that he now must go, how much leverage would Toronto even have to pry away compensation of consequence? Precious little, I would think.

I would guess that Farrell's appeal to Boston lies with the fact that they need to address culture issues first and foremost. The team started souring under Francona and then become a den of toxicity under Valentine. Farrell is a known quantity whom the Red Sox may believe can restore the peace. Any of the external candidates, like Wallach, may be able to do the same, but are unknowns. Farrell, too, represents a link to a period of success for the organization. That he may have proven himself to be a milquetoast on-field manager may be a small price in the minds of the Red Sox brass. They need to restore the organizational culture and then attract some fresh talent with their burgeoning coffers. Suffering through middling on-field management is likely the least of their concerns at the moment.
hypobole - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#264594) #
"But I have to wonder: why on earth does he want to manage the Boston Red Sox,"

Maybe because they aren't owned by Rogers? From what I've read, the dissention between JF and AA centred on the fact Farrell, like most of the posters here, saw the need to acquire starting pitching prior to last season, while AA decided to go the frugal route.
China fan - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#264595) #
"....But I have to wonder: why on earth does he want to manage the Boston Red Sox, if indeed he really does?...."

The answer is obvious: more money and more job security. If he leaves the Jays and go to the Sox, it's virtually certain that the Sox will be offering him a pay raise, plus a multi-year contract. The Jays have apparently not offered him a contract extension, as far as we can tell. So it's completely unsurprising that he would accept a contract with the Sox if they obtain his rights.
raptorsaddict - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#264596) #
I am firmly in the "meh" camp about Farrell as a manager, so if Boston wants him and is willing to give up ANYTHING, they can have him. I think the vast majority of managers are fungible, and Farrell has shown himself thus far to be a replacement level manager as far as on-field decisions go.

My guess is that the package will be similar to what was gotten for Ozzie and Theo - ie., minimal. That said, I'll be more than happy to take a middle reliever and C prospect. And if that turned out to be Zach Stewart, I'd be pleased as punch.

greenfrog - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#264597) #
I wouldn't be surprised if Farrell doesn't command much in return (assuming he's on his way out). But I don't see why "precedent" has to determine the compensation, as if this were some legal case. Supply and demand, plus the respective GMs' negotiating skills, is what matters. How badly does Boston want him?
China fan - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#264598) #
I agree with greenfrog on this. Farrell is under contract to the Jays for one more year. The Sox want him, and the Jays don't have to give him up. The Sox might think that the Jays want to get rid of Farrell, but that's not necessarily true. The Jays would probably be quite content to have Farrell as their manager for 2013. The theory about "clashes" between AA and Farrell is, at this point, purely speculation, driven by the Boston media, and there's no concrete evidence that it's true.

To me, it seems quite plausible that Anthopoulos wouldn't mind having Farrell back in 2013, or even longer. Farrell has spent two years learning how to be a manager, and learning the strengths and weaknesses of the Jays roster. I doubt that AA wants to start over again with another rookie manager, no matter what flaws he might see in Farrell. So, as greenfrog said, it is supply and demand, and AA has the bargaining chips. He doesn't need to let Farrell go for a trivial package of marginal prospects.
92-93 - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#264601) #

You mean Kevin Kennedy, former manager of the Red Sox and current co-host on MLB Network Radio? And nowhere did Gerry mention KK was an "official source".

No. I mean @KennedyMLB, a fan's twitter page that Gerry quoted as "the latest from Kevin Kennedy", right before saying another official source, Nick Cafardo, tweeted something similar.

John Northey - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#264603) #
Well, precedent gives us an idea of what managers generally are worth in trades. For players we can look up WAR or whatever stat you prefer and get an idea of fair/unfair. But manager stats are heavily biased by team quality although sometimes you can guess (Davy Johnson always 1st or 2nd with just one exception in his career for a full season for example).

Joe Maddon is signed with Tampa through 2015 for roughly $2 mil a year (11 Rays make more) so he isn't available I'm certain. Mike Scioscia is signed through 2018 for $5 million+ a year so he isn't going anywhere (or at least not here). Now, if you want an old guy, Jim Leyland is a free agent this winter (now _that_ is old, 67 this year and looks older). Surprisingly Leyland is sub-500 for his career (851-863) with 5 division titles, 1 WS win and another WS appearance (both WS appearances were with Wild Card winners).

Looking at I'm not seeing too many who have been fired recently as being strong candidates. Should be an interesting winter though. If the Jays dump Farrell onto the Red Sox I'm sure the Jays will quickly find a replacement - heck, maybe that is the delay right now, the Jays putting together a list and prepping so they have someone to introduce quickly.
85bluejay - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#264604) #
My first choice is Sandy Alomar as it was 2 years ago - I don't expect much in return for Farrell, AA has has not done well in trades lately .
bpoz - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#264606) #
I believe Farrell under achieved or was neutral, but I cannot prove it. However he was good at not being a trouble maker from what I recall. He protected his players.

My judgement of 2011 & 2012 as far as problems go are the following. Again I could be wrong and I certainly do not know who to blame.
1) Bautista in RF rather than 3B until Lawrie took over.
2) FF, Rauch & Cordero as the closer or set up guy for too long. I would have been OK with a shorter leash than was granted.
3) Lind batting 4th. Lind clearly stated that when in the 4th spot his production would suffer due to a phobia/pressure. IMO all human beings have comfort zones.
4) The Rasmus trade destroyed the pen. Zep, Dotel & Fraser were better than Rauch & FF IMO.
5) 2011 was loaded with temps that had replacements in waiting. 2012 had too much youth & inexperience as well as well as injuries. To me neither team was ready to be a serious contender. I saw them as part of the development process.

For 2013 I see development continuation. The youth still need more experience in Lawrie. Rasmus is some kind of project IMO. He is great potential that is trying to be unlocked. Both are worth the effort because it may pay off.
LF, DH & 2B are vacancies that can be filled with proven stars in their prime or uncertainties (we have prospects). The rotation needs a 5th, 6th & 7th option that have few questions. This is very tricky, an expensive acquisition must play & hopefully contribute. Other types of acquisitions will increase the competition, but with no guarantees, this type of player should be easier to add.

So for 2013 I cannot see Farrell or another manager being successful. If we win 90+ games then I will give credit to the manager & also get to see where the contributions came from. Defense at 2B is a priority so Hech or some other that has a good glove is a must. LF can be some kind of evaluation of balance from offense & defense. Sierra in LF will give good defense but uncertain offense, same with Gose but he should be in Buffalo where he can grow without the pressure. Lind in LF may provide offense and adequate defense. My expectations for Lind's contributions have been lowered.
Magpie - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#264607) #
If a new manager is to be hired, I wouldn't mind seeing the team hire someone who had actually managed in the major leagues before. I realize that's not the Blue Jay Way, but what the hell. Some well regarded young manager who had been scapegoated by his owner or GM, and forced to walk the plank because of the failures of his organization. Like Bobby Cox in 1982. This description fits Don Wakamatsu, for what it's worth. Anyone else?
Paul D - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#264608) #
Is this happens, will Farrell be the first Jays manager to manage a different team since Jimmy Williams?*

*Asterisk for Cito Gaston.
92-93 - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#264610) #
I'd want AA to go through the same process that landed him Farrell, who on the surface appears to be the perfect choice with his ability to communicate. It's practically impossible for a GM to know exactly how his manager is going to manage, which I guess is a vote in favour of hiring someone with experience.
Mike Green - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#264611) #
Maybe he would have done better if his name was Jiimy.  There are two i's in winning!  Blame it on his parents.

Put me firmly in the "get the best person" camp.  Whitey Herzog had endured a failure before succeeding in KC and St. Loo.  Earl Weaver took over in mid-season for Baltimore.  If you can find the next Herzog or Weaver or Davey Johnson or Joe Maddon or Mike Scioscia, you take him. 

Forkball - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#264612) #

It's practically impossible for a GM to know exactly how his manager is going to manage

I would think GMs would ask about game strategy in interviews, although I suppose you can't really know until they really do pull the trigger for real.

eudaimon - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#264614) #
How about Manny Acta? He's been fired from two bad teams, but he seems pretty respectable and he's into sabermetrics.
eudaimon - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#264615) #
I don't know what goes on in interviews, but it's hard to get real specifics. I doubt there's a question that AA could have asked that would have indicated his tendency to continuously play Coco in high leverage situations.
Dave Till - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#264616) #
I think that it's almost impossible to determine who will be a good major league manager. For example, consider the case of Manager Candidate A. He was a successful manager in the minor leagues, a bench coach for two respected major league managers, and had experience as a player. Manager Candidate A was Tim Johnson, and that didn't work out too well.
MatO - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#264617) #

Manager Candidate A was Tim Johnson, and that didn't work out too well.

Actually the Jays had a good season under him.  His problems stemmed from certain military exaggerations.

vw_fan17 - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#264618) #
Going for the "ironic" angle: trade Farrell to the Red Sox and hire Demarlo Hale, one of their other candidates..

Gerry - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#264619) #
I guess I was wrong about Kevin Kennedy tweeting. I should have gone with the Cafardo tweet instead.
Original Ryan - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#264620) #
Back in 1998 I thought that the Jays' success was in spite of Johnson rather than because of him. I've forgotten many of the things he did to annoy me, but I wasn't impressed with his managerial abilities at the time.

If I were to guess, I'd say that Don Wakamatsu takes over if Farrell departs. The folks at U.S.S. Mariner seemed to like him when he was with Seattle.

Gerry - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#264621) #
Latest from Ken Rosenthal:

It's becoming increasingly likley that Toronto Blue Jays manager John Farrell will be the next manager of the Boston Red Sox. ............ One rival executive called the compensation negotiations "a staring contest."

Farrell was a popular pitching coach under former Red Sox manager Terry Francona. Farrell would have been the Red Sox's first choice to be their new manager last year, but the Blue Jays prevented him from making what was then described as a lateral move.

"There's no question it gets done in my mind," said one rival executive. "Toronto doesn't want him there anymore."
Mike Forbes - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#264622) #
When Farrell departts, I'll say that it is 95% likely that his replacement will be one of Butterfield or Wakamatsu.
Thomas - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#264623) #
Actually the Jays had a good season under him. His problems stemmed from certain military exaggerations.

I don't have strong memories of Johnson, but that's my recollection, as well. It was only once he became clear that he couldn't lead and command respect in the clubhouse in the face of those lies having been exposed that he had to be fired.

Now you can make the argument that Johnson was never a good manager as no good manager would engage in such a short-sighted and dubious tactic, but it didn't hurt him in terms of short-term on-field results.

Mike T - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#264624) #
how about Dwayne Murphy to replace Farrell? follow in the foot steps of Cito, The 'Getting promoted from hitting coach to Head coach' part anyway.
He 's strong, but also has that easy going side to him as well, make for better interviews.
damos - Friday, October 19 2012 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#264625) #
In an article published tonight, Bob Elliott reports that  Farrell wanted the club to release Omar Vizquel back in July:

Richard S.S. - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#264626) #

Ricky Romero starts Game 1 knowing he has to be perfect, because other than Morrow, three surprises made up the rotation (we can't pitch).   Then Game 1 finishes becoming the longest opening day game in history (we can't hit).   The very next day comes a blown save (our closer sucks).   With bullpen problems, "selective" hitting problems, young Starter woes, things were not totally bad.   How many games were lost because of bad decisions - Brett Lawrie's ("I never make mistakes") base running talent as an example.

A.A. is responsible for acquisitions or the failure to acquire Starter and Batter.   Romero starts Game 1, knowing he's one of three good starters, may not put as much pressure on himself.   Less pressure is put on the other starters.   Do Hutchison and Drabek still go on DL and have TJ surgery if they never get called up?   Add the Big Bat A.A. missed acquiring might make the hitting less selective and more effective.   Less pressure might be placed on the Batters.   I firmly believe A.A. cost this team 10-12 games.

John Farrell is responsible for almost everything else, and his biggest mistake was assuming Boston's way of treating players is the right way here.  Some players regressed under his watch, while others progressed slower than expected.   Bullpen usage, lineups, in-game decisions and lack of discipline were costly for this team.   I believe Farrell cost this team 15-20 games.

I'm believe if A.A. did his job this past offseason and did better this past July, this Team would have been good enough to contend for a playoff spot.  A better manager might have got the actual past team there.

TamRa - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#264627) #
random prognostications for if;/when Farrell leaves:

1. In an effort to move fast, ensure continuity, and minimize loss of talent - the Jays will elevate Tory Lovello to the manager's office and replace him at 1B with Chad Mottola (thus getting the second batting coach on the field)

2. If they don't do this, and opt for, say, Sandy Alomar Jr., then Lovello will follow Farrell to Boston to be the bench coach.

3. Just for the sheer hilarious irony of the situation, the compensation the Jays get from the Red Sox will involve Zack Stewart.


92-93 - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#264628) #
Omar was kept on the roster even though the manager didn't want him? Maybe he was being groomed to year's team.
Anders - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#264629) #
In an article published tonight, Bob Elliott reports that Farrell wanted the club to release Omar Vizquel back in July:

Okay maybe Farrell should stay after all...

Thomas - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#264630) #
I think TamRa makes a strong point regarding Lovullo very possibly leaving.
grjas - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#264631) #
The other interesting question is can the two clubs put a bigger deal together to help deal with real needs on both teams?

So ... who would you give up in addition to Farrell to get Clay Buchholz...and would the Sox do the deal?
hypobole - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#264632) #
The #1 need for both the Sox and Jays is starting pitching. Buchholz to the Jays makes no sense from Boston's perspective.
bpoz - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#264633) #
I found your math confusing Richard SS, but I agree that Romero, AA & Farrell contributed to the bad 2012 season.

Romero has to pitch well because if he is bad I do not know what has to be done. I think a demotion to work on what ever needs to be worked on is my best solution. This leaves a big hole in the rotation for a while.

AA & Farrell. Who is making the decisions about roster construction & usage. I suppose we will never know. I remember in 2010 that Cito did not use J Accardo or Merkin Valdez much. Wells stayed in the clean up spot, but played well after a bad 2009 & JPA sat too much in Sept IMO. I believe that Cito was making a lot of decisions so I am content to claim he was responsible for the 2010 record. I do not feel so sure about Farrell's input and therefore feel that 2011 & 2012 is a shared responsibility.

With so many injuries I cannot blame AA & Farrell. The only hope was for other players and the farm to compensate. EE, Oliver & Janssen were huge IMO and the only rookie to provide more than I expected was Loup.
greenfrog - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#264634) #
Dave Magadan, Boston's hitting coach, just accepted a job as Texas's hitting coach.


Under Magadan, the Red Sox have had one of the top offenses in the game. They were second in the majors in OPS (.791) and led the game by averaging 3.94 pitches per plate appearances during the last six years.

“It was difficult to leave,” Magadan said. “I have relationships with the players, the front office, everybody from the PR department to marketing to community relations. I did a lot of work in the community. There’s a lot of people in the organization I’m going to miss.”

Magadan said he established roots in Boston and gave consideration to staying.

“In the end, I felt like it was a good opportunity for me to go to Texas and kind of start the next chapter of my coaching career. Me and the family are very excited for it,” he said.

Magadan said all the organizational turnover in recent years did not play a role in his decision.

“No, not really. In the end I feel like I can more or less get along with anybody,” he said. “What brings me to the field every day is your relationships with the manager and the other staff members, but ultimately it’s the players that get you up in the morning and make you want to show up to work. As a coach, that’s the way it’s got to be. The wins and losses are byproducts of how hard we work with the individual players. I spend more time with those guys than I do with my own family during the season.

“There are relationships there that will be hard to say goodbye to.”

Said Rangers GM Jon Daniels: “We felt like we got one of the best in the business.”
LouisvilleJayFan - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#264635) #
I would be excited for Sandy Alomar, Brad Ausmus, or Dave Martinez. Someone young(er) and fresh...or Bobby Cox. I would love me a 70-something, Bobby Cox.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#264636) #
Paul Beeston (re-signed for 2+ years) is A.A.'s protection. He can hire and fire VPs and deals with the finances of the team (like everyone else, talks to the owner/owner's representative). Anthopoulos is responsible for hiring and firing of mostly everyone else and acquisitions of players. Farrell is responsible for the hiring and firing of subordinate staff and the 25-Man Roster.

A.A.'s responsibility for 2012 is Farrell, and failure to acquire Starter (for example only: Gio Gonzales) and failure to acquire Big Bat (for example only: Carlos Beltran).

If the Starting Rotation is Romero, Morrow, Gonzales... I don't think Romero puts as much pressure on himself as he did. Does Morrow still become injured? Do Hutchison and Drabek still have TJ Surgery or do they even make this Team before September?

Big Bat
Does Bautista put all that pressure on himself if our 3-4-5 is Bautista, Beltran, Encarnacion? Doesn't it reduce pressure on everyone if the offense is better. I believe, with a better Manager, A.A. cost the team 10-12 games and a postseason berth.

Poor decisions about bullpen usage, closer designation and Starter usage cost this team dearly. The inability to put a lease and muzzle on Brett Lawrie (I don't make mistakes) and speak to Bautista about his questioning of umpire calls. Players regressed on his watch, developement stalled. The adventures in batting orders caused more problems than they cured. This Team, late in July, was within 2.5 games of a WildCard berth. A better Manager has this Team 5 - 7.5 Games better. But some where here Farrell lost their attention and the slide commenced. I believe a better manager has this team at least 5-10 games better in just this stretch.

A better Manager has the Team actually contending for a postseason berth late into September. Add a better team, and we're in.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#264637) #
MLB Trade Rumours has an article about a rift between A.A. And Farrell. Farrell wanted to release Omar Vizquel in July and unhappy A.A. didn't acquire Starting Pitching at the Trade Deadline.
greenfrog - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#264638) #
It sounds as a though a deal may be getting closer:

It also sounds from the article as though the Red Sox really are looking for a "saviour" - perhaps they're more desperate than we thought:

the Sox are hopeful of having a manger in place prior to the start of the World Series
Gerry - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#264639) #

From the article referenced by greenfrog:

Coming to an agreement on compensation figures to be the biggest challenge of the process for the Red Sox. One source Saturday said it was expected that the team would have to surrender either a player off its 25-man roster or a significant prospect from its minor league system.

I say it's a pitcher ready to play in the majors next season. My first guess would be either Allen Webster or Rubby DeLaRosa, both who came over from LA in the big trade this summer.

Mike Forbes - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#264640) #
Webster was the very first guy that came to mind when this recently became serious. If the Jays get an arm like that in exchange for an average manager, I'd be thrilled.
Brent S - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#264641) #
Things are heating up:

Buster Olney ‏@ESPN_Buster
Blue Jays gave Red Sox two options: Farrell for Bucholz, or Farrell, Lind, Hecchevaria, and Gose for Pedroia. They elected the latter
Brent S - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#264642) #
Wait nevermind. After trying to verify the tweet, it seems like that is a fake account. Sorry folks.
greenfrog - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#264643) #
I think it has to be someone of that calibre - AA can't walk away from this with someone like Clayton Mortensen or Chris Carpenter as "compensation." But who knows what will happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see the deal expanded to include additional players. It will also be interesting to see whether (as TamRa and one Boston newspaper speculated) Lovullo is going with him.
greenfrog - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#264644) #
Re the argument that Farrell is an "average" manager. Remember that he's been on the job for only two years. He may get better over time; in fact, the Red Sox may be assuming that this will happen.
Original Ryan - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#264645) #
Peter Gammons tweeted this earlier:

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo
Will Farrell end up in Boston? Likely. Has it been decided between him and Ausmus? No. Has it been ceded to Cherington? Yes.big day Sunday

I'm not sure what he means about Sunday being a big day, but it sure would be nice if this saga finally ended tomorrow. It's time to move on.

Noah - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#264646) #
Sounds like Farrell to Boston is done...

via twitter:
‏@Sean_McAdam Breaking: Red Sox have hired John Farrell as manager, signing him to multi-year deal. Official announcement coming soon.
Gerry - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#264648) #
Reports out of Boston say Farrell has signed a three year deal.
damos - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#264649) #
He Gone.
greenfrog - Saturday, October 20 2012 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#264650) #
I would be happy with Sandy Alomar Jr. as manager. I would also be stoked if the team (a) received Webster or DLR as compensation for Farrell; and (b) hired a new (elite) hitting and/or pitching coach.
joeblow - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#264651) #
What a bad dream this year was. Spring training and two good months were a total mirage. Let's hope that former catchers are better managers than former pitchers.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#264652) #
So, according to Morosi:

- One player going each way
- Jays getting a player who was on the 2012 big-league Boston roster
- Jays getting an infielder

Meaning...Aviles? Ciriaco? De Jesus? Iglesias? I'm confused. Is the Farrell compensation really going to nothing more than our backup infielder in 2013?
damos - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#264653) #
So...Mike Aviles is coming here.
Gerry - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#264654) #
Underwhelming return. I guess the Jays did not have the leverage.
chocolatethunder - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#264655) #
can 2012 end now please!!
Original Ryan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#264656) #
Underwhelming return. I guess the Jays did not have the leverage.

It may also be an indication of how far Farrell's stock has fallen in the past year. If Anthopoulos wanted Buchholz last offseason and settled for Aviles this time around, the reports of a significant rift may have been true.

joeblow - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#264657) #
Aviles will surely be introduced as a 2B.

I'm not sure what this means about Aviles but here it is:


For a core group of Red Sox players, Valentine was going to be a tough sell. He was 180 degrees different from predecessor Terry Francona. The presentation across the board in spring training was foreign, whether because of the videos in the clubhouse, the execution of meetings and drills, or even Valentine's methods with the media.

It was why when Valentine lit into Mike Aviles for not executing a pop-up drill correctly -- one during which the staff was attempting to get the infielders to call for shallow fly balls -- it was met with some anger among the team's veteran players.

Aviles didn't respond at the time to the terse instruction, and only briefly talked to Valentine about the incident the next day, but a core group of players was sufficiently taken aback that the players voiced displeasure about what had transpired.

The Red Sox shortstop went on to go about his business, even denying the incident when contacted by during a series in Minnesota. (Aviles declined comment earlier in the week when approached about the incident, although other team sources say the impetus for his denial was to not bring attention to the situation and potentially make an already uneasy early season atmosphere worse.)
TamRa - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#264658) #
Aviles (whom I predicted once Morosi tweeted it was an infielder) is now the presumptive Jays 2B until/unless a better is acquired. Truth is, given the sort of player usually involved in manager trades, Aviles is a surprisingly useful return. No, he's not GOOD - but you really hardly ever see a GOOD player in deals like this.

Plus, we don't know the last details.

Either way, I'm "meh" - i neither loved nor loathed Farrell, I'm find with the rumblings that SAJ will be next as long as they do it QUICKLY. I have no stomach for a two week search which ends up at the same place we are assuming tonight.

I'm most interested to see how the staff is shuffled, if at all - prime considerations being that Butterfield stays and Motolla does in fact get a major league role.

uglyone - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#264659) #
I'd be pretty depressed if AA sees Aviles as anything other than a Vizquel replacement or a trade chip.

Hopefully we managed to dump some salary on them somehow.
uglyone - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#264660) #
but I'm glad Farrell is gone, at least.
Thomas - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#264661) #
There are rumours suggesting that Adam Lind is the player going with Farrell to Boston.
92-93 - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#264662) #
"Buster Olney is reporting that the Jays are about to hire Sandy Alomar Jr as manager."

He is? Where? Because it's not on his Twitter feed, or MLBTR...

I suggest we all take a second look before jumping to share information with people. It's often fake fan accounts.

Aviles is an excellent return for John Farrell, and it will only look even better if a significant portion of Lind's salary has been dumped as well.
dan gordon - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:35 AM EDT (#264663) #

Aviles was one of the 3 players I suggested back in the 12th post on this thread, and I think it's a reasonable deal.  He's had good seasons in 2008 and 2010, hitting over .300, then an interesting split year in 2011 when he was terrible for KC, but then picked it up in a big way after going to Boston, again hitting over .300.  The 2012 season was a below average year for him.  Career OPS of .715, a good % base stealer, and has some power.  Team control for 2 more years.  At this point, I'm assuming he takes over at 2B, and if he hits like he did in 2008, 2010, or the post-trade 2011, they might bat him 2nd.  Getting rid of Farrell is a positive as well, in my book.

Oceanbound - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 03:48 AM EDT (#264664) #
If it's Lind, wow. Not only do you get rid of Lind's salary, but you also package him with Farrell so Boston gets stuck with Adam Lind, Cleanup Hitter for the whole season. An evil, devious plan.

Of course what this really means is that Lind will suddenly turn into Ortiz, and greenfrog will post about how terrible the Jays coaches are sometime next year.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#264665) #
Aviles is an OK return. He was actually 2.0 BRef WAR in 2012 (based largely on his defence). Given that Escobar is somewhat of a question mark, Hechavarria may not be quite ready, and the Jays lack a second baseman, Aviles could come in handy.

Oceanbound: it's true that have asked pointed questions about the Jays' coaches - the hitting coach in particular. Apart from Bautista and EE (who really took off only after consulting an outside hitting coach), the team's hitters were mostly very bad in 2012, and the Jays are notorious among other AL teams for being very aggressive, early-in-the-count swingers (I'm not sure that being aggressive is the problem; but being predictably aggressive likely is). And it is curious that Hill acquired serious offensive jet fuel only after leaving Toronto.

But I have never said, "Murphy is an awful coach." Typically I preface my comments by saying I have no way of knowing whether the coaching is in fact the problem, or by saying that I wish the media would at least ask the tough questions. I guess nuance is out these days.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#264666) #
Lind's achy breaky back will likely prevent him from turning into ortiz without performance enhancers. Regardless there is no way anyone can reasonably expect a turnaround.

I am actually quite happy with the return for farrell. The returns some people were talking about were ridiculous: joe torre wouldn't have brought them in 2001.

Aviles on the other hand becomes either an upgrade over kj at 2B or a super utility guy who plays 100+ games. He can take walks, he can run and his d isn't bad. He is a piece and pretty cheap too. Rest assured toronto is better today than yesterday.
whiterasta80 - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#264667) #
My mistake, apparently he cant take walks. Should fit right in here. Still is a good piece.
China fan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#264668) #
Prediction: by June, thousands of Jays fans will be complaining that the new Jays manager is "tactically poor" and "can't run a bullpen."
ogator - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#264669) #
This is the quintessence of a Blue Jay deal. You give up virtually nothing and you get virtually nothing except you save Rogers some money that they pretend will be used to better the line-up within certain parameters, when the team gets close, when attendance rises blah blah blah, 4th place.
You save 7 million on Adam Lind where does the money go? Where did the Vernon Wells money go?
John Farrell seemed like a nice man who was respected by most of his players but he will have to cart that bunt altar with him to Boston if he wishes to keep sacrificing chickens, rodents and wins to the god of little ball.
Original Ryan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#264670) #
Apparently Lind is not part of the deal.
joeblow - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#264671) #
Griffin has a recap of the Farrell experience. The narrative is that Farrell may have lost the clubhouse.
bpoz - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#264672) #
Hopefully today or tomorrow AA will speak to the media.

I assume that Boston gets to introduce Farrell as their manager before AA will say his piece.

Boston could do very well with Lind. He is not expensive. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Middlebrook & Salty should provide offense. Lind should add to that, potentially anyway. They also have a lot of money to spend now. The openings at 1B & SS are an opportunity for big acquisitions.

They still need pitching. The new managers for both Boston & Toronto have an incredibly good chance of improving on their 2012 records of 69 & 73 wins. Failure to do so will be met with a lot of complaining IMO.
Original Ryan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#264673) #
According to Alex Speier, the Blue Jays will be sending "a low-profile member of its 40-man roster" the other way. It sounds like it could be someone the Jays were planning to waive.
Oceanbound - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#264674) #
Low profile member, huh? David Carpenter maybe?

greenfrog: 'Twas just a joke. Personally I wouldn't mind if the new manager decided that Murphy and Walton should play a role somewhere far, far away from the Jays clubhouse.This is as good a time as any to start fresh. Neither has shown much reason for why they should be retained.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#264675) #
Agreed - if nothing else, a change is probably in order. I wish the Jays could get one of those elite coaches along the lines of Mike Maddux, Dave Duncan, or Don Cooper - guys whom everyone highly respects and who have a demonstrated track record of success at helping players make the most of their talents. Of course, teams generally don't let coaches of that calibre go. Probably the best way to attract one is by building a really, really good organization. Sort of a chicken-or-egg situation I guess.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#264676) #
Nick Cafardo seems to think Aviles is a nice add for the Jays (per twitter):

- "Toronto GM Alex Anthopulos did a good job getting Mike Aviles as compensation for John Farrell."

- "good tough high effort player. Toronto needs that."

Can't say I disagree with his logic.
Shak - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#264677) #
Since when did we get RP Ian Kadish from Boston? He is listed in Toronto organization...

And Mike Aviles listed in Kansas City Royals system....

Is there a 3 team trade?

Oceanbound - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#264678) #
Ian Kadish has always been in the Jays org, Shak. You're thinking of Ryan Kalish.
uglyone - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#264679) #
in the end, a manager we didn't want gets us a legit MLB bench IF. not bad.
Oceanbound - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#264680) #
Jose Canseco @JoseCanseco

@bluejays. I'm avaiabe. Take u to promise land.

JB21 - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#264681) #
Exactly, Uglyone. I see this as a firing without having to pay any salary and a middle IF in return. Now, the hire will be a major point obviously. Do it right this time please.
JB21 - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#264682) #
New poll time?? Ha
Richard S.S. - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#264683) #
John Farrell was not the caliber of Theo Epstien or even Ozzie Guillen, but no Manager has been as highly sought after as Farrell has been. That should have increased his value greatly (the old supply and demand rule). Unless A.A. was determined to get rid of Farrell, I don't think we got enough coming back. Mike Aviles is a good player, but only a good player, nothing better and takes up a 40-Man Roster spot. Whether he's the Starting 2B for us or a huge upgrade at a Middle Infielder for our bench, that's not enough.

Negotiations have been ongoing since season-end. All those Manager Canditate Interviews was just Boston's version of the game of chicken. Farrell has never been in so much demand to think that Boston would ever stop trying to get him. The negotiating process took too long to be just Aviles coming our way, something more is coming.
China fan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#264684) #
One advantage of Aviles is that he allows the Jays to transition smoothly to Hechavarria as the future SS. If Hech needs another couple months in the minors, Aviles can hold the job for a while, and then slide into a utility role in the second half of the season. At his worst, Aviles is no worse than Escobar in 2012.

This presumes that the Jays will trade Escobar, who still has significant trade value because of his reasonable salary and the fact that other teams will remember his strong hitting numbers in 2011.

Of course another scenario is that the Jays take a gamble on Escobar bouncing back to 2011 form. In that case, they could flip Aviles to another team, or keep him as the utility infielder. I don't see much chance that Aviles is the full-time 2B in 2013, unless the Jays are completely unable to find a better 2B option from the free agent or trade market.
China fan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#264685) #
Aviles had a .663 OPS last season -- the lowest of his career (except for his injured 2009 season). But even that low OPS was better than Escobar has posted in 2 of the past 3 seasons. And he's much cheaper than Escobar (although he's due for a raise from arbitration).

I'm not necessarily saying that Aviles has greater value than Escobar, but just pointing out that Escobar's value is based on the assumption that he bounces back to something closer to his 2011 numbers -- which might not happen. And the possibility of a bounce-back by Escobar might create enough value (in the minds of other GMs) to enable the Jays to package Escobar in a deal for a starting pitcher.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#264686) #
something more is coming

The cheque is in the mail. Let us know when it arrives.
ayjackson - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#264687) #
Report on twitter that David Carpenter (Happ trade) is going to Sox with Farrell.
Mike T - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#264688) #
yep, it is now official.
Oceanbound - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#264689) #
Well uh. I sure wrote a thing with comment #264674.

If someone wants some lottery numbers, I'll be here all week.
JB21 - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#264690) #
Assuming DC wasn't going to be able to stick on the 40 anyways? Seems weird he would be included in this "trade".
ayjackson - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#264691) #
Sox have new policy of acquiring a Carpenter in every deal involving non-playing staff. 
Paul D - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#264692) #

Dumb question - is this the good or bad Carpenter that the Jays acquired last year?

ayjackson - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#264693) #

It's the "good" Carpenter in that he's the one the fanboys were talking up when we sent a boatload of prospects to Houston for Happ.  The bad one was released in September, I believe.

Hmmm....I may be a troll.

China fan - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#264694) #
He was the "good" Carpenter. But he is 27 years old, and didn't impress hugely in his time in the Jays organization. I guess the Jays liked his potential, took a look at him for a couple of months, and then deemed him expendable.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#264695) #
Aviles had a .663 OPS last season -- the lowest of his career (except for his injured 2009 season). But even that low OPS was better than Escobar has posted in 2 of the past 3 seasons. And he's much cheaper than Escobar (although he's due for a raise from arbitration).

Yeah, I was just checking the numbers and Aviles is a slightly better hitter than I thought.  I assumed he was like 250/290/370 type, but he's a career 277/308/408.  Not anything great, and he's trending downwards the last couple of years.  Still, as recently as 2010 he hit over .300.  At the very least he's a better backup IF option than Vizquel at this point.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#264696) #
Also 295/339/458 line against LHP.
Thomas - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#264697) #
There are reports that Boston was going to non-tender Aviles, given their options at middle infield, or alternatively trade him for a minor leaguer if they could, so that should give you an idea of Farrell's value.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#264698) #
when we sent a boatload of prospects

A rowboat full of prospects, maybe.

It's not as though AA sent over Lee Stevens, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee. Or Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones. I guess time will tell, though (I could be wrong).
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#264699) #
I like this quote from Cathal Kelly's article on the Farrell trade:

He was a bit of a cipher, what with his tendency to speak in an odd sort of police procedural manner
uglyone - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#264700) #
the red sox just traded their starting SS for a manager (and a poor manager at that).

Gerry - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#264702) #
Using Fangraphs value calculations for the 2012 season, Mike Aviles was the same player as Yunel Escobar.
greenfrog - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#264703) #
Depending on how aggressive AA is on the trade market, the Jays could have an infield of d'Arnaud-Lawrie-Hechavarria-Aviles (or player X)-EE sometime in 2013.

Also, what is AA going to do with Lind? Are we really going to see him on the roster again next year?
Thomas - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#264705) #
Using Fangraphs value calculations for the 2012 season, Mike Aviles was the same player as Yunel Escobar.

One thing to note is that Aviles, like Escobar, gains a significant portion of his value through his defence. Aviles is thought of as surehanded and able to capably play all the infield positions, but I'm a little skeptical of a stat that suggests a 31-year-old shortstop who has never got notable plaudits for his defence is a big plus defensively and likely to remain that way for his age 32 and 33 seasons.

To back that opinion up (or to demonstrate the fallibility of opinions by amateurs on defence), the Fans Scouting Report is not nearly as favourable to Aviles as it is to Escobar.

Mike Forbes - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#264706) #
Aviles is a top notch utility guy. I just hope he isn't going to be the opening day second baseman.
bpoz - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#264707) #
So talk of the search for a new manager will start soon.

I wonder if AA or Beeston will pick him.

I always liked Dave Johnson. He won with more than 1 organization so he was either good or lucky. If he is hired then IMO the decision was strongly influenced by Beeston IMO. I just have the impression that D Johnson may have friction with the GM, any GM. I do not know if AA or any GM could handle that.

When Jimy Williams was replaced by Cito as interim manager I cannot remember if he beat out D Johnson for that position of interim manager. I do recall him being mentioned in the mix.

A team takes a big risk if they fire a manager who wins for them. They would be open to a lot of criticism if the new guy does not win.

I somehow feel that Beeston could make a better choice than AA.
Magpie - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#264708) #
Jimy Williams was replaced by Cito as interim manager I cannot remember if he beat out D Johnson for that position of interim manager.

Gillick's first choice to replace Williams was Lou Piniella, who was exactly the type of manager Gillick always likes (a hard-ass!). But Piniel;la was employed by the Yankees and Steinbrenner wanted Todd Stottlemyre in return. They haggled about it for a while, and in the meantime the time started to play better for Gaston.
John Northey - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#264709) #
Davey Johnson isn't available as he is the manager of Washington and will be for 2013 (he is already signed for next year).

I find it funny that Gillick's first choice, Pinella, ended his career with just 1 appearance in the World Series and 1 title vs Cito's 2 titles and 2 appearances. His 517 career winning percentage is almost identical to Cito's 516. Never did understand why people list Pinella as a HOF candidate since I see his 1835 wins as a function of teams hiring him (Gillick in Seattle mainly) more than his being _that_ good.
JohnL - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#264710) #
Davey Johnson... I think Gord Ash interviewed him to succeed Gaston, but the sense then was that Ash had no interest in hiring him, but he was available and experienced, and "had to".
Dave Till - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#264713) #
He was a bit of a cipher, what with his tendency to speak in an odd sort of police procedural manner

To me, he sounded like somebody who believed that using bigger words makes you seem smarter. Drove me crazy.

I wonder whether Farrell will get his socks booed off of him when he returns to Toronto.
scottt - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#264714) #
It seems like everybody except the Blue Jays, is allowed to interview Tim Wallach for a managerial job. Or was that just a 2010 thing?
ayjackson - Sunday, October 21 2012 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#264715) #
I worry that we'd have to go through this again with the Dodgers in a year or two if we hired Wallach.
John Northey - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#264718) #
One of the challenges this time - make sure you get someone who isn't going to jump ship in a couple of years. See that they aren't dreaming of taking over a different team (the one they are with now) but just dreaming of being a ML manager.

Hopefully it goes better this time and whoever gets the job finds out what managing in the playoffs is like here.
scottt - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#264719) #
Clearly, Farrell was doing a poor job here and would not have been extended.

There's no way Eli would have turned a blind eye to all those mistakes on the field.

I don't see a successful manager jumping to a struggling team. Those guys don't have families to worry about anymore.

Let's take someone with minor leagues coaching experience.
JohnL - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#264721) #
Let's take someone with minor leagues coaching experience.

There's a guy with extensive minor league coaching & managing (and some MLB) experience who might be available. Based on this pretty amazing story, his players really support him too.
Gerry - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#264722) #

Fangraphs has an interview with Mike Aviles, focused on his defence.  The piece finishes with the following quote:

Ben Jedlovec, Baseball Info Solutions: “Mike Aviles had a great season from a defensive perspective. His 14 Defensive Runs Saved was tied for fifth among all shortstops in 2012. This was a mild surprise, given that Aviles doesn’t have a widespread reputation as a defender. However, he has spent only one other season as a regular shortstop, 2008, when he also saved 14 runs defensively. He did have a disappointing 2010 season at second base with -8 Defensive Runs Saved. All in all, Aviles was a pleasant surprise defensively for the Red Sox.”

Mike Green - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#264724) #
Aviles is a bit of a puzzle from a defensive metric perspective.  He has put in 2300 innings at shortstop, with most of them in 2008 and 2012, and been a noticeably above average defender there whether you look at DRS or UZR.  He has put in 1500 innings at second base and third base, and been significantly below average there.  It seems that he neither has a great arm nor is he good on the pivot, but that he is a natural fit at shortstop.  Butter is going to have some work to do in the off-season...
Denoit - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#264726) #
Toronto needs to improve its team. Any compentant baseball manager can run a team to the championship if they have the players. Winning creates a good atmosphere, losing creates controversy. If you win nobody really questions your moves, but if you lose your under the microscope. To me the team needs to get better and then the manager will look a lot better.
China fan - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#264727) #
Is it significant that we haven't yet seen a single Blue Jay player tweeting that he's going to miss John Farrell?

I'm sure we will eventually see some polite comments from various Jays about the departure of Farrell, but the immediate reaction from Jays players on Twitter has been non-existent. Which suggests that nobody will be deeply mourning his farewell to the Jays.

I still don't think there was a giant "rift" between Farrell and Anthopoulos (and AA was vehement yesterday that they definitely did not disagree on the use of Vizquel) but it's apparent that the Jays feel that Farrell wasn't a particularly great fit with the team, or a savior to the franchise.
John Northey - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#264728) #
Its a combination really - no manager could've made the 62 Mets into a winner, nor could any have made the 61 Yankees into a last place team (at least not easily).

Managers have a few key skills needed...
1) Pick the right guys to play the most - letting Vizquel play at all was a negative, letting Encarnacion get playing time until he became 'wow' was a positive. The manager may not pick who is on the roster, but they do pick who plays and how often.

2) Know who to have pitch and when, and pull them at the right times. Cito & Gibbons were very good at this, Farrell not so much.

3) Know how to mix in kids and build confidence and skills until they are solid ML players. Many thought Cito was bad at it, but key players did have great careers after starting with him despite what many felt was poor management of those players (Green, Olerud, Delgado for example). Farrell failed with Snider (clearly, as did Cito), with only JPA and Lawrie looking close to successful but neither hitting like many thought they would once playing everyday.

4) Dealing with ML egos and getting guys to do the role they belong in and avoiding clubhouse nightmares. Farrell did poorly with this as the clubhouse seems to have fallen apart, or at least weakened, at the end (much like the end days of Cito).

Top managers deal with these issues and make things work. For example, Davey Johnson was known for taking the biggest player in the clubhouse (be it ego, dollars, or ability) and pushing him in a way that told the players he was boss (moving Ripken to 3B for example, moving George Foster-biggest contract on team-to part time role with the Mets in the 80's). Cito was well known for telling players he wouldn't put up with crap either. Jimy Williams, on the other hand, was humiliated by George Bell in 1988 (with no small assist from GM Gillick) when he tried to make Bell a full-time DH (he played 7 games total as DH that year, the same as in 1987).
SK in NJ - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#264729) #

The only thing that bothers me about this whole thing is the wasted development time in 2011 and 2012. None of the young talent played well under Farrell, especially the pitchers, which was supposed to be his strength. Drabek? Sucked and then got hurt. Alvarez? No one ever bothered to help him develop another pitch or effectively use his existing repetoire so he was not very good either. Hutchison? Decent until he got hurt. Cecil? Lost velocity and stunk. Carreno? Nothing. Reyes (in 2011)? Garbage....although hard to blame Farrell for that since Jo Jo isn't very good to begin with.

Then you have the hitters. We saw the regression of Lawrie, Rasmus, and Arencibia (although the latter probably is what he is and won't get much better) this past season and Escobar turned into a pumpkin. The best hitters on the team currently either broke out prior to Farrell's arrival (Bautista) or broke out due to instruction from another party (Encarnacion, who credits Luis Mercedes for his monster season). Then you had Adam Lind, who apparently HATES batting clean-up, forced to bat clean-up and face lefties (who he can't hit).

Now Farrell is gone after sucking the life out of whatever potential the Jays had internally for two years. Practically no one improved under his watch. Most actually regressed. What a waste.

Oh well. Live and learn. Move on. Farrell was not a good manager and is/was highly replaceable. Hopefully the Jays make the right call this time around (Alomar or Martinez would be my picks).

Magpie - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#264730) #
If you win nobody really questions your moves

Apparently you weren't around in 92-93.
China fan - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#264731) #
"....It seems that he neither has a great arm nor is he good on the pivot, but that he is a natural fit at shortstop. Butter is going to have some work to do in the off-season..."

You're assuming Aviles will be at 2B, but that's not necessarily true. I see a pretty good chance that he'll be mostly at SS -- either as a starter or part-timer -- and that happens to be where Aviles is strongest. The Jays need to acquire a couple of good starting pitchers, they can't do it all from free agents, so they'll definitely be active in the trade market. And if they're trading, how can they not trade a shortstop? It's the only obvious area of surplus for the Jays. They have three SS who can play in the majors and have trade value. (Escobar, Hech, Aviles.) It's hard to imagine that the Jays won't trade one of those three - and Escobar is the most likely, in my opinion. In that scenario, Aviles and Hech would be a good way to solve the SS issue, at least until Hech is able to do it full-time.
greenfrog - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#264732) #
Farrell may have been interested not only in heading to Boston, but also in gaining some additional job security. He now has a new three-year contract, presumably with a higher AAV than in 2011-12. Whereas in Toronto he may have been a lame duck manager in his "free agency" season (2013), with a potentially poor track record to shop around to other teams.

Opportunistic or prudent? I guess it depends on your perspective.
greenfrog - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#264733) #
Many people seem to think that Escobar can be flipped for a decent starting pitcher. I'm not so sure. Maybe after his excellent 2011 season, but this off-season other teams may be more likely to see him as a decent-but-flawed 30-year-old SS with possible makeup issues. That by itself isn't going to net you a solid #2 or 3 SP.
China fan - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#264734) #
Yes, of course the Jays would have to package Escobar with someone else to acquire a good pitcher. Escobar and two or three prospects might get it done. But these days, with the additional wild-card slot available, most teams see themselves as potential contenders, and they will insist on major-league talent in any deal. That's where Escobar would make sense as part of the package.

Increasingly few teams, except for those in a pure rebuilding year, will settle for only prospects in a trade.
Intricated - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#264735) #
Is it significant that we haven't yet seen a single Blue Jay player tweeting that he's going to miss John Farrell?

Janssen tweeted something around the time news leaked on this, although it was more in the polite department than a love-in.

greenfrog - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#264736) #
I don't know. Teams that want a shortstop in order to contend are not going to trade away a good major-league SP for Escobar + prospects. First, because strong starting pitching is in such short supply. Second, because teams looking to contend (as, say, Washington and Cincinnati were last off-season) typically aren't looking for more prospects - they want major-league pieces.

Last year Boston received Clayton Mortensen for Marco Scutaro. The Jays can probably get somewhat more for Escobar, but not a lot more.

If the Jays want a strong #2 or 3 SP, the centrepiece will be one or more (probably two) of their top prospects, in my view.
uglyone - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#264737) #
I think baseball gods did us a favour here. After the 2nd half collapse this year, it was crystal clear that the coaching staff had to be gutted. But I'm not sure it would have happened if Boston hadn't come a'callin'.

And I think getting Aviles also prevents AA from saddling us with a useless bat like Vizquel or JMac on the bench, too.
John Northey - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#264738) #
Not if Aviles is the starting 2B. It wouldn't take much for that to occur either - either status quo with Hech in AAA, or Escobar or Hech traded and no one else coming in for 2B/SS.

I fully expect AA to sign another middle infielder who can't hit as a backup plan then to try to improve overall - first you get livable options, then you upgrade seems to be his methodology. Problem is he has had troubles upgrading.
TamRa - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#264739) #
Someone said "we need a manager who's not dreaming of managing another team" - hey, Ernie Whitt is out there ;)

Anyway, regarding dealing a SS  - it's not for a pitcher but it seems to me that whatever faint hope we have of going after Justin Upton includes the ability to supply the with a major league SS. True, we'd have to add quite a bit beyond Escobar, but i'd want to be pretty confident we'd ruled out that possibility before I start trying to get a starting pitcher out of him. I agree pitching is a great need in the short term, but getting Upton would be huge. Plus, if you get Upton you might look at using Rasmus to get a pitcher and going with Gose in CF.

uglyone - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#264740) #
well, the problem now is that the IF market sucks.

To be honest, our best option on the FA market for 2B would be none other than Kelly Johnson. (And actually, now that I think about it, given that Aviles is quite good v. LHP, that makes even more sense to use them as a platoon there).

The only other real options are Scutaro (not an awful idea), Betencourt (bleh), Gonzalez (bleh), Hudson (bleh), maybe Keppinger if the Rays don't keep him (which I doubt).

The only really interesting potential trade option would be the Rangers trading one of Andrus, Kinsler, or Profar....which would be a great trade to get in on. No guarantes that they make a trde, though.
greenfrog - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#264741) #
The basic problem is that the stock of the Jays' main ML trade chips is down (Rasmus, Escobar, Arencibia). These are all players who could lose their starting role to prospects (Gose, Hechavarria, d'Arnaud) within the next year, but they aren't terribly desirable at present. (This is one reason among many why 2012 sucked.)

I know it's a tough pill to swallow, but I think AA should give them one last shot to rebuild value, then move them at the deadline or next off-season. I think you listen on Escobar this off-season, but he shouldn't be dumped on the A's or D-Backs at 50 cents on the loonie. IMO this could lead to another Aaron Hill situation in 2013 - a weak-hitting SS on the Jays (Aviles/Hechavarria) and a resurgent Escobar (3+ WAR) producing excellent value for someone else.

A new hitting coach might help with this plan.
Ryan Day - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#264742) #
... immediate reaction from Jays players on Twitter has been non-existent. Which suggests that nobody will be deeply mourning his farewell to the Jays.

Or it suggests the Jays have made an attempt to clamp down on Farrell-related comments, at least for a while. (I don't know exactly how much power they have in this respect.)
Chuck - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#264743) #

I fully expect AA to sign another middle infielder who can't hit as a backup plan then to try to improve overall

I think this will happen as well. I believe the starting SS/2B combo will be Escobar/Aviles with Hechavarria starting in AAA and perhaps forcing his way onto the roster mid-season. Or AA finds a taker for Escobar and Hechavarria/Aviles is the starting combo. Either way, a McCoy type, or a slightly better version, will serve as the backup. I don't believe an upgrade on Aviles will be pursued.

Given the presumed off-season focus on starting pitching, I think positions like 2B, LF and 1B/DH will fall by the wayside and be addressed with in-house solutions.

If AA is given the latitude to spend, maybe some surprises will be in store. I guess we'll wait and see.

Mike Green - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#264744) #
Aviles is quite a step down from Kelly Johnson as an everyday second baseman.  They have similar patterns- much better players two years ago than today.  Aviles has a wRC+ of 79 over the last two years; Johnson's is 90.  Johnson is a year younger and has been a better defender at second base so far, although maybe Butter will help Aviles leapfrog Johnson defensively.  I was skeptical that he could help Aaron Hill as much as he did, but Aviles is quite a few years older than Hill was at the time. 
greenfrog - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#264745) #
The A's trade for Chris Young is interesting - I wonder how many Bauxites would prefer to have him in CF next year over Rasmus (I might). We'll have to check the leaderboards at this time next year. Who will have produced more total WAR (offense + defence) in 2013, Rasmus or Young?
92-93 - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#264746) #
I don't see the relevance. Young comes with a 10m commitment, Rasmus will make around 5m this year. Young also costed a legitimate player in Pennington and a toolsy, 7-figure prospect in Cabrera that hasn't grown too old yet (anyone remember Richard Griffin's scouting trip on Yordy Cabrera?).
greenfrog - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#264747) #
KLaw (ESPN Insider): Oakland traded a surplus infielder + a marginal prospect for a CF with outstanding defence who should be good for a four-win season in 2013 (4.6 WAR seasons in 2010 and 2011) if healthy. Pennington is "a very good defensive shortstop who can't hit, doesn't have power and doesn't walk enough to make you forget the first two points."

I'm skeptical about the 4 WAR prediction for Young but it could happen. More than anything, I'm skeptical about Rasmus ever getting close to fulfilling his All-Star potential.

As for his salary, I guess it depends on your POV. The Jays could certainly afford to pay Young $10M before handing the reins to Gose full-time in 2014. Unless you think that the Jays have more severe payroll restrictions than Oakland has. In any event, after 2012, my radar lights up when Billy Beane makes a move.

Here's a thought experiment: do you think Beane would trade Young for Rasmus, straight up? I'm not sure he would.
electric carrot - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#264748) #
The Boston Globe betrays its condescending view of fans and media "from afar" (i.e. Canada) by dismissing legitimate criticisms of Farrell's in game management.  The reporter Chad Finn writes "Rumor has it he was terrible at coaching the power play."  Ha ha ha -- dismiss us now Red Sox Nation -- but I guarantee you that the telephone lines to radio call in shows in June, July, August and September will be aflame with angry words about poor in game tactics.  American arrogance knows no bounds and nearly always ends badly for the Americans in question. I give Farrell a year and a half before he's turfed.  Here's the link:
Matthew E - Monday, October 22 2012 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#264749) #
Assuming Mike Aviles plays second base for the Jays and plays about as well as his numbers suggest he will...

Here are all the Blue Jays second basemen in their history whose last names started with A, ranked best to least best.

Roberto Alomar
Mike Aviles
Russ Adams (primarily a shortstop; had some games at second)
Danny Ainge
Edgardo Alfonzo

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