Looks like the Sox are getting good value in Frazier, not sure what Cinci is thinking though?  this trade might actually be a good example of prospects being overvalued - it reminds me of Oakland's half of the Donaldson deal in that sense

I also like the Lawrie pickup for the Sox, but they have to be an OF (preferably one who can actually catch- thats some ugly D) and a solid pitcher short of contending for the wild card don't they?  I've never really understood what Kenny Williams is up to, but he still has a job ...

They are definitely a team held back by some bad contracts - $43 million next year for Melky's iron glove, John Danks 89 mph FB and Adam Laroche's, uhh, beard?

As to the HOF vote - Hoffman is in good shape early with 67.3% plus on at least 7 of the partial ballots. I suspect a lot of voters are debating him big time with those 600 saves. If Rivera had stayed a starter I think Hoffman would've been a near lock by breaking the old save record by a mile with no one else charging at him, of course I thought that Lee Smith would've got in too.

Others over 50% are Curt Schilling and Barry Bonds. Garret Anderson has one fan, as does Jim Edmonds.

MLB Trade Rumours has their estimates for arbitration spending. Spoiler - Jays at $37.8 mil.

Thanks for this, it puts the inactivity at the winter meetings and what's left of free agency into context.

Committed salaries are at $99.85M as per Spotrac, so the Jays will be bumping up against $138.5M to start 2016 (assuming arbitration goes 'as expected').

Offloading Revere + Smoak, as was raised in the most recent thread, seems to present the biggest opportunity for improving the pitching staff given their respective salaries and positional depth. I know the bullpen needs to be rounded out and there is precious little room to do so given the budget Rogers has imposed, but I'm still not comfortable with the notion we'll get 5 full, quality seasons out of the 6 guys who are pegged for the rotation so far.

I would not be so quick to jettison Revere and Smoak. I'm not counting on any significant contribution from Saunders next year. Which leaves Pillar/Bautista/Revere/Pompey as the team's outfield depth chart. That works for me. Players get hurt. Depth is good. Revere has limited upside, but he also has limited downside. Ditto Smoak (to a lesser extent). Also, Smoak is a LHB and the Jays are short of those.

I'm not saying the Jays shouldn't trade them, but I don't think they should move them just to acquire some mediocre pitching.

I'm not saying the Jays shouldn't trade them, but I don't think they should move them just to acquire some mediocre pitching.

I agree on not being interested in mediocre pitching, but their combined contracts basically equate to JA Happ money (i.e. $10M in year 1), so I would hope they could do better.

I hear the Sox are looking for a shortstop??

How current are MLB's Arby projections? When they include an already signed Justin Smoak into pending/future projections, it make me wonder.

How current are MLB's Arby projections? When they include an already signed Justin Smoak into pending/future projections, it make me wonder.

Not sure what you mean by 'current', the projections are based on model developed by Matt Swartz and MLBTR, as stated in the first sentence of the link. As noted in the article, this model is referenced by some agents and teams during the arbitration process. Its accuracy is dependent on statistics and comparables.

It's not a 'tracker', if that's what you mean, so I doubt they care what Smoak actually signed for (which incidentally was altogether too much according to the model - consistent with how people reacted to the news here when the deal was announced).

which incidentally was altogether too much according to the model - consistent with how people reacted to the news here when the deal was announced).

The model uses the previous years salary.

Arbitration uses the record of the players past compensation.

Smoak made $1 million last year, but $2.4 million in 2014.

The model uses the previous years salary.

Arbitration uses the record of the players past compensation.

Smoak made $1 million last year, but $2.4 million in 2014.

My comment on Smoak being overpaid was based on his individual projection for 2015, which was $2M according to the model. If you click on the 'individual salary projections' link in the opening paragraph, it takes you to each player's expected contract.

To the Jays' credit, they did pay $1M less for Thole than the model projected.

Hypobole's point was that the model was probably inaccurate for Smoak, since he had a track record of being paid more than 1m

Don't understand the Frazier trade from anyone except LA's perspective (just getting different prospects they like more). Reds didn't get very much for a 4-5 WAR player under control and the White Sox keep going for it when they probably don't have the players to win. The Central is actually pretty strong with the Royals, Tigers, and Indians all having pretty good teams. Even the Twins are not a pushover. Where do the White Sox fall in this group? I'd still have them missing the playoffs. They could win I guess but they still have a lot of weaknesses (worst OF defense in baseball, no depth at all, ) and a terrible system so if this going for it fails, they will be bad for a long time.

Glevin

Sometimes trades never make sense or are not supposed to ever make sense. (It's not 100% impossible that a suitcase of money holdings Millions might trade hands.) The Trade you mentioned might have occurred because Chicago didn't have what the Reds wanted. Or weren't willing to give up.

Since 2012, Revere's WAR has been 2.8, 0.8, 2.1, and 1.9 respectively. His wRC+ has been 86, 92, 91, and 98 respectively. He's a solid player. Considering Saunders is coming off a serious knee injury and Pompey is better off starting the season in AAA (for depth and service time reasons if nothing else), I wouldn't be too quick to dump Revere. If you can get something decent for him, then sure, but there's no real reason to unless the saved money would be going towards a better player (and let's face it, that's not happening in this FA market). The one X factor is Saunders. If he comes to ST looking healthy and ready to bust out, then it will be a (good) problem. At that point you could consider moving Revere if there's still a market by that point. Right now it could be risky.

Reallocating wins to the pen and being stuck with inferior position player depth in the process is not going to help the team much. The Jays are clearly going cheap in the pen this season, which is fine, especially since middle relievers are getting $5M AAV nowadays. They just have to guess right on some of their acquisitions (like Biagini, for example).

I would absolutely keep Revere. He was a key element down the stretch.

It is Smoak that I think is fungible.

The arbitration process, as I learned last year, has been quite inaccurate in valuing contributions of players.  MLBTR has an estimating device, which attempts to assess what arbitrators do on average having not much to do with the merit of the decisions.  It is a good effort.  It is important to acknowledge the arbitrariness (strange that arbitrary and arbitration have the same root) of some of the decisions; any such device is going to have a wide error bar.

Hypobole's point was that the model was probably inaccurate for Smoak, since he had a track record of being paid more than 1m

I'm sure it has its limitations and I don't expect the Jays will come in exactly at $37.8M (hopefully not higher!). In terms of Smoak specifically coming out of 2014 with the M's, I'm sure the model had difficulty with his limited playing time (80g) and future injury risk and how that might have affected his awful slash line (he had negative WAR that year).

It would have been interesting to see how accurate it would have been for Smoak this year, but the two sides short-circuited the process.

The fact that Saunders was tendered tells us his medicals are clear. If they tendered a guy whose medicals put him in serious doubt of contributing in 2016 then they're idiots.

Revere is a decent passable starter, but we likely have 5 starting calibre OF and that's more than just "good depth", that's a bonafide surplus. And moreover, Revere projects as the worst of those 5 offensively, and better than only Bautista defensively. Revere projects as the worst hitter in the entire lineuo, actually, and better than only our bench IF and C. And he's not very good defensively.

There is a very good chance that keeping and starting revere actually makes our team worse, especially since they'll give him the most PA on the team by hitting him leadoff.

With a lineup as good as ours, paying $7m for the "security" of having a barely average starter, when there's a good chance that we have 2 other OF that can replace him for cheaper - and quite possibly be significant upgrades on him - seems a bit of a waste to me. Especilly since we clearly need pitching help and apparently have no money left for it.

then again, given that we've loaded up on expensive mediocrity in the pitching staff, it is harder to see now how we could trade revere for a clear upgrade there anymore.

Gotta think that if Revere is dealt, the best that could be hoped for in return is a capable enough RP that would allow Sanchez to be bumped to the rotation.

The fact that Saunders was tendered tells us his medicals are clear. If they tendered a guy whose medicals put him in serious doubt of contributing in 2016 then they're idiots.

I wouldn't leap to conclusions. If Saunders had sustained his knee injury somewhere other than at a spring training facility, I would probably agree.  The club has made a big deal about improving those facilities, and it is possible that the tendering is part of a goodwill gesture on the part of the club, or even an undisclosed settlement of a claim.

Gibbons has said that he anticipates that Saunders will be affected by this injury for his career at some level.  That doesn't mean that he will be unable to contribute.  Harold Baines had a nasty knee injury history and moved from the outfield to DH at age 28.  He carried on until his 40s.  The Blue Jays, alas, do not need a DH.

Jays have signed Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal.

I would absolutely keep Revere. He was a key element down the stretch.

Given unlimited budget, I'd keep him too. Personally I rate him a bit higher than what his advanced metrics say. But then, given said budget, I'd also have kept Price and added Davis for funsies :)

Since team salary is remaining fixed, some hard choices have to be made and I think in this scenario, you prioritize the rotation (i.e. the biggest risk area IMO) over the LF spot, where you could get comparable production from others already on the roster.

Saunders had a pretty serious knee injury. To assume in December that he'll come back strong 4 months from now for a team that wants to win in 2016 would be a massive risk. It's possible the Jays were willing to take a $3M chance on Saunders given their lack of OF depth. Whether they are prepared to make him a 4th OF if everyone else stays remains to be seen. I don't think Gibbons will start him over Revere.

The one area where I think Revere's greatest strength will not be utilized by the Jays is his base running. He was 7/9 in SB's with the Jays (56 games). Prior to coming to the Jays he had 169 SB with 40 CS (~81%). That's a darn good base stealer. His lack of running might hurt his overall value to the Jays even though it has nothing to do with him. Maybe they'll run him more in 2016 if he's still around, but with Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion behind him, probably not.

Smoak: I find it doubtful the Jays would re-sign him to that sort of deal and then move him. It just doesn't seem like usual practice to go that route.

Colabello: Would have thought this might be who gets moved, but the club sounds fairly committed to him too. Also, he doesn't free up any salary space, so limited incentive, likely.

Revere: I think he's a solid option for LF, but would agree that the cash coming his way could probably be better allocated elsewhere.

Saunders: Similar to Smoak, would be a strange time to move him, and they haven't exactly done anything that would pump his value. I think he probably stays.

Pompey: Irrespective of how high you are on him, he's probably the one on this list with the most upside, and probably the most trade value as well. But he's also the only real backup CF option (I don't trust Saunders or Revere), so I'd be surprised if he is moved unless another CF is coming back.

Carrera: A solid 5th OF to have in the system that won't kill you. On this team, he's 6th. With Saunders health always a concern, and Pompey's ability to hold down an everyday job, and a complete lack of any trade value, I assume Carrera sticks around.

It's a weird situation the Jays are in. They certainly COULD deal an OF, but probably don't HAVE to (Pompey/Carrera could start in the minors if everyone else is healthy/productive). They can keep both Colabello and Smoak, but could probably survive with only one of them.

Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. From a certain perspective, if he's willing to be traded, Bautista being dealt may actually make the most sense, since you would upgrade defensively with either Saunders or Pompey, and a one-year $14m Bautista could get you a really nice piece in return (one year of Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden got 4 years of cheap Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins). I'm pretty confident that barring something dramatic, at least one of Bautista or EE is gone after this year (if not both), and pending on what the market would bear...

Saunders has a common injury with a common surgery. To pretend it is career ender is silly. And if there are any indications it is that kind of injury, tendering him a guaranteed contract is even sillier.

"given their lack of OF depth"

Jays as of now have the deepest OF in baseball.

I would absolutely keep Revere. He was a key element down the stretch.

Vulg: Given unlimited budget, I'd keep him too. Personally I rate him a bit higher than what his advanced metrics say

The evaluation of Revere's defence in left-field is interesting.  We only have 848 innings in the last 3 years, and so the sample is very, very small.  DRS has him at +2 for plays made and -2 for arm or a net 0.  UZR has him -2.5 for range, -2.3 for arm and +1.5 for errors.  Inside Edge says that he made 3 of 10 remote plays (1-10%), 2 of 3 unlikely plays (10-40%), all 4 "even" plays, 9 of 10 likely plays (60 to 90%), and all 189 routine plays he had.  The Inside Edge numbers in this case correspond more closely with what I saw than the DRS or the UZR numbers.  I saw a left-fielder with very good range and a poor arm. 

Overall I'd say he's a net modest positive rather than a modest net negative out there.  If I'm right, he's a 2.5-3 WAR player if he can maintain his hitting and baserunning at the 2014-15 level (and that, of course, is far from a certainty. Nonetheless, as Magpie has pointed out, the Jays really have 3 players ideally suited to playing left-field with the current personnel- Revere, Pompey and Bautista.  The "low-risk" thing to do is to keep Revere in left-field, Bautista in right-field and Pompey in the minors.  It's not what I would do.

Saunders was supposed to be ready to go last spring. He hasn't played since.

Just because a surgical procedure is common (even assuming removal of 40% of one's meniscus is common) doesn't mean it can't or won't impair a player's career. Here, we're talking about an already-brittle player with a badly-injured knee who fell months behind in his recovery timetable and ultimately ended up missing the entire season, who will be expected to play outfield next season on turf-covered concrete. It's not exactly an ausipicious set of circumstances.

My hope is that the Jays get about 200-300 quality PA against RHP from Saunders in 2016.

My hope is that the Jays get about 200-300 quality PA against RHP from Saunders in 2016.

I'll second that. I'll also add that I hope he's still a plus defender; if you take that away from him, his fielding might make Jays fans pine for Melky Cabrera in left.

wade leblanc on a minor league deal is a pretty underwhelming name - I like that the team is going further afield for minor league signings this year, but LeBlanc was pretty dreadful in Japan last year and is the ultimate soft-tossing lefty.  primarily a starter, so perhaps he fills the Jeff Francis role in AAA.  Also hearing Cory Luebke's name - he was a good young arm until injuries wiped out most of his last 3 seasons.

Shapkins have talked about the need for at least 8 MLB starters - I sure hope LeBlanc isn't on that list.  Hard to know how they figure the depth right now - are Sanchez and Chavez starters in terms of the 8 MLB worthy guys?

 

An interesting rumour - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/toronto-blue-jays-interest-cory-luebke.html

A guy who was promising at one time but two Tommy John surgeries later has cost San Diego millions. If he'd sign for a year plus an option he'd be a very good one to take a flier on.

"Saunders has a common injury with a common surgery. To pretend it is career ender is silly. And if there are any indications it is that kind of injury, tendering him a guaranteed contract is even sillier."


Whether his injury will hurt his career means less to the Jays than what it means for his 2016 season. There's no guarantee he'll come back and produce like his pre-2015 days right away. To suggest it was a common surgery so he'll be back to normal just like that, while certainly possible, is not the smart play. Tommy John Surgery is common as well, that doesn't mean the pitcher will return to normal right off the bat. You still have to see how the player does.

I know you don't like depth, but I'd rather have a FO that is willing to enter the season with too much depth than too little. They can always make trades later. The Jays were playing a DH in LF for parts of last season because two of their projected OF's bombed (for varying reasons). They had the option of non-tendering Saunders, but chose to keep him for $3M. We'll see what their plan is soon enough, but I don't think they would have tendered him if they knew he was damaged goods. This might simply be a depth move to give them the option of trading Revere if they choose to.


"Jays as of now have the deepest OF in baseball."

Until Saunders proves he's on-field healthy, it's 3 OF's with one good prospect. If Saunders proves he's back to normal, then yes, it would be a deep OF, and they'd have to make moves accordingly at that point.

Pompey is a non-starter to me at this point. He should start the season in AAA unless two OF's get hurt prior to the season. This regime is smart enough to know about service time so I'm not as worried about them starting him in the Majors as I would have the previous regime. Pompey will be needed at some point in 2016 eventually, and will likely start in 2017 regardless.

"The Jays were playing a DH in LF for parts of last season because two of their projected OF's bombed (for varying reasons)"

and...?

did it hurt them?

and anyways, they chose to put cola out there for a whole 129pa beause they wanted to keep his bat in the lineup. they could have played carrera out there instead. and then recalled pompey when he was hot. that was their choice.

and I still can't get over how it's always the guys who talk most about youth who are scared to actually play it. How can pompey possibly be a "non starter" for you? Youth doesn't help if you don't use it.

"Mark Shapiro says real-grass playing surface for RC not a top priority. One of many stadium upgrades being considered. No costs available yet on grass project. Stadium upgrades 2B judged on cost/need. Grass nice to have, but “we don’t need it.”

Man he's on some kinda roll.

Fairservice nails it when he says that Shapiro is certainly good at managing expectations.

that's a bummer ... not sure why he is so definitive, although I'd guess it's cost.

investing in a natural playing surface with the accompanying reduction in wear and tear on the players seems like a Shapiro move.

I'm with ya Ugly, and I won't try to goad you on or anything, but by far the most enjoyable part of this offseason for me is reading as you fight the good fight on our current direction...

"did it hurt them?"

Yes. Cola was costing the team more runs on defense than his +.400 BABIP was providing on offense. The outfield was such a mess that Revere was a huge upgrade.


"and I still can't get over how it's always the guys who talk most about youth who are scared to actually play it. How can pompey possibly be a "non starter" for you? Youth doesn't help if you don't use it."

It just makes sense to have your prospects as depth to start a season. Groom him to start in 2017, but keeping him in AAA preserves some of his service clock, plus gives the team more depth in case of injuries. The Jays have solid vets who can handle LF for a year. Take advantage of it.

ESPN posted the latest Vegas Bovada odds

In the East:
Red Sox 9-1
Jays 16-1
Yankees 25-1
Orioles 50-1
Rays 66-1

Here's Schoefields take:
" The Red Sox have better odds than the Blue Jays. That could simply be a result of who's making the bets: There are probably more Red Sox fans betting than Blue Jays fans, thus lowering their odds. I do wonder about the Red Sox rotation: David Price is great, but Clay Buchholz is injury-prone and Rick Porcello is coming off a terrible season; the others are basically unproven or should be shifted to the bullpen (Joe Kelly). It could be a very good rotation but it could also be Price trying to carry a bunch of No. 4 and 5 starters."


http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/67155/current-world-series-odds-point-to-parity-problem-in-the-nl

The improved Red Sox bullpen may make life somewhat easier for the rotation (and Price in turn may make life easier for the bullpen).

I would not assume that Dombrowski is done making upgrades.

Blue Jays signed/signing/to sign LHP Wade LeBlanc (31) to a MiLB contract with Spring Training invite. He should be an upgrade on Jeff Francis, if needed.

On the scale of 1-10 on necessary non-player moves, a new Minor League complex heads the list, at least two spots. Necessary repairs/alterations/upgrades occupy most of the remaining spots. Actual real grass is coming, it just doesn't have any priority this year, because it sounds like a $100.0 Million plus price tag.

No-one has mentioned the Brad Penny signing...I guess because it is hardly worth mentioning.

No-one has mentioned the Brad Penny signing...I guess because it is hardly worth mentioning.

C'mon now, this would have been real exciting ... in 2004.

Man he's on some kinda roll.

Has nothing at all to do with Shapiro. This was entirely predictable when upgrades to the RC were announced a few months ago. In fact, I think I predicted it. it did not seem conceivable to me that the team would commit hundreds of millions of dollars of upgrades to a stadium before building a new one, and I don't think natural grass is a practical, or even conceivable, development in the RC. The notion that a Blue Jays executive, Mark Shapiro, woke up one morning and decided to 'cancel' natural grass in the RC is, put kindly, unlikely.

No-one has mentioned the Brad Penny signing...I guess because it is hardly worth mentioning.

Putting together a minor league pitching staff after most of the existing one was traded in 2015 will no doubt be a project.

Nothing is more important to a contending team than their AAA rotation. I appreciate Shap's laser focus on it.

Brad Penny is a perfectly good guy to sign to a AAA deal. He might rebound, probably won't but it is a cheap lottery ticket anyways. At the very least he'll be a good extra pitching coach in the spring via his experience in the majors if nothing else.

We should have some idea (?) of who is promoted to Buffalo as well as who returns. I think all MiLB signings should be evaluated as whether they are MLB driven or necessary bodies for AAA.

Any general manager who knows what he is doing signs a bunch of these guys and gives them spring training invites. It doesn't cost much money, it might give the fans in Buffalo some names to root for - and, what the hey, one of these guys might actually be able to pitch a bit.

The volume approach to finding the #4 and #5 guys in the bullpen is probably better than spending $10 million on somebody who will wind up with a 3.80 ERA or something like that. We don't need the equivalent of Maicer Izturis in the bullpen.

There are no #1 Pitchers left on the free Agent list. The slightly possible #2 Pitchers left are: Wei-Yin Chen (LHP),30-ish; Scott Kazmir (LHP), 32-ish; Mike Leake (RHP), 28-ish; Yovani Gallardo (RHP), 30-ish and Kenta Meada (RHP) 28-ish. Meada probably cannot sign until mid-January, which might slow down this bunch.

The volume approach to finding the #4 and #5 guys in the bullpen is probably better than spending $10 million on somebody who will wind up with a 3.80 ERA or something like that. We don't need the equivalent of Maicer Izturis in the bullpen.

Not that ERA is a strong predictor of the quality of innings offered, but a season of 3.80 ERA would be better than what Dickey (3.91), Chavez (4.18 in the AL West), and Hutchison (can't copy the infinite sign) provided last season. Happ's AL ERA with Seattle was 4.64 (his ~63 innings in the NL Central dragged it down to ~3.61).

Considering expected usage out of a 4th or 5th bullpen arm vs. potentially the 3rd best pitcher in your rotation, I sure hope they're still looking at major league starters instead of just Buffalo fodder. Next season should not be the time to have the Felix Doubronts of the world pitching meaningful innings.

Nothing is more important to a contending team than their AAA rotation.

Well, it is important, but I don't love Wade LeBlanc and Brad Penny for these roles - Penny's been dreadful in AAA for a few years now and is in his late 30s.  LeBlanc's fastball is in the mid 80s.  Minor league signings have limited upside by nature, but these guys appear to have none. 

Hindsight helps, but last December we added 11 guys as waiver claims or minor league FAs - including Collabello and Carrera.   I'd like to see more guys AAAA guys like those two or Bo Schultz than ML vets who's careers are nearly over. 

I sure hope these aren't the imminent deals Adkins was talking about a few days ago. 

Last offseason jays built a rotation of Stroman, Buehrle, Dickey, Hutch, and Estrada. They had 2 kids as first extras in Sanchez and Norris (who together started 16gms with a 3.62era and the team went 7-9). After that that it was a crapshoot.

But even though we lost our best SP for the whole year, and even though our first choice fill in sanchez was injured, we still only ended up needing 10 starts from our #8-11 SP. They stunk and we went 3-7 in those 10, but it still wasn't that big a deal. if it had been hutch injured instead of stroman we'd have hardly felt the difference at the bottom of the rotation.

This season we've replaced buehrle and hutch with happ and chavez, with sanchez still in reserve and hutch replacing norris. It would be nice if we could get better performances from our 8-11 SPs than doubront/copeland/boyd/redmond gave us last year but it likely will be even a smaller factor than it was last year, unless stro is out all year again.

In the TGIF department, when David Price signed with Boston, I thought "it figures, another DP".  With that in mind, the DP team:

C- Darrell Porter
1B- Dan Pasqua
2B- Del Pratt
SS- Dustin Pedroia
3B- Dean Palmer
LF-David Peralta/Dave Philley
CF- Dode Paskert
RF- Dave Parker

Bench- Don Pavelitch (C), Dalton Pompey, Dickey Pearce (MI), Doc Prothro (CI)

SP- David Price
SP- Deacon Phillippe
SP- Dan Petry
SP- David Palmer
SP- David Phelps
RP- Dan Plesac
RP- Donn Pall
RP- Drew Pomeranz
RP- David Pauley
RP- Duane Pillette

I like what you are saying about our rotation uglyone.

IMO replacing Buehrle will be very hard. Because any of the 3 season Buehrles could be the one that shows up in 2016. They were all pretty good.

Stroman ... injuries happen. Hopefully not to him. So we should get a big boost here.

Dickey should give us some consistency. Hopefully. So that means the same as before. Which was good enough.

Estrada, Happ & Chavez have to perform at the RC. How much success is that? I for one need to see them do it. Estrada doing it for I year is just that. Maybe a 1 year wonder. Hopefully not.

I will be optimistic and say that Hutch and Sanchez become better rather than worse or stay the same.

So that is 6 SPs for the year's rotation. The next 2-4 starters that will get an opportunity will be a huge Question Mark. To bet on just one of them being decent is probably a really bad bet.

Stroman and Hutch contributing more than last year has to be a great bet IMO.

The Jays entered the off-season with zero AAA starters. These types of moves were kind of necessary. They have Diamond, Penny, and LeBlanc now, and still need a couple more. The only way you'll see good young starters in AAA is if the team develops them. Otherwise, you put a rotation of minor league vets out there to keep the Bisons happy and maybe if you get lucky one turns out to help the big league club some time during the season. Otherwise, it's just minor league filler.

The Jays made their big moves already (re-signing Estrada, trading for Chavez, and signing Happ). Chances are everything else will just be depth to prepare for injuries (Barney types) and some cheap gambles on relievers.

"The Jays made their big moves already (re-signing Estrada, trading for Chavez, and signing Happ)"

You are a funny guy, SK!

"Nothing is more important to a contending team than their AAA rotation."

Wait, nothing? You're a funny guy Ugly.

Doug Smith on the grass issue:

"I cannot think of such a promising off-season ruined by myopic ownership and management than this winter with that baseball team. I’d suggest practically all the goodwill they built in that engrossing last half of last season is gone now, frittered away by what I think is shortsightedness."

I don't quote this to beat a dead horse, but find it interesting that someone relatively outside of the baseball echo chamber has this opinion.  Mostly, I just wonder where the average fan feels - the who would go to a game or two but never call a show or post online about the Jays.

I can only assume Penny is being signed purely for Triple-A depth, similar to the role Randy Wolf played last year.

While, as noted, minor league signings tend to have limited upside by nature, there are occasionally some interesting names available on minor league deals. I think the Royals signing Dillon Gee is a good example of that. He's an arm who could potentially give the Royals some relatively useful starts at the back-end of the rotation. I understand his contract includes an opt-out, which may be what made him choose to sign with Kansas City, but not every minor league signing has as limited upside as Penny.

The Jays have reportedly claimed Junior Lake on waivers.  It's a little odd, since they're using a spot on the 40-man roster for an outfielder who seems unlikely to be needed.  You'd think they would use absolutely every available spot on the 40-man roster for pitchers.   However, I suppose Lake is a decent bounce-back candidate, since he's still just 25 and had a good rookie season at the age of 23.   This would be pure speculation, but maybe the Jays are planning to trade some of their OF depth (like Revere or Pompey or Saunders) and want some additional depth options.  But that's probably reading too much into this.

Lake at least has some good hitting numbers at the AAA level, and some experience as a CF, and even some SS experience.  Is he potentially a decent 4th OF if the Jays trade their other options?  Is he better defensively than Carrera?

The folks at Blue Jays Plus point out that Junior Lake is out of options.  And he has a 31.2% K rate.  They argue that Lake won't make the team unless there are injuries in spring training and he's needed as a 4th outfielder.  They don't see him as anything more than a 4th OF.

In that case, my question is:  why use a 40-man spot on him?  The spot could be better used for a reliever or a starter, since they need depth so badly in the bullpen and the Buffalo rotation.

You are a funny guy, SK!

Well, it's not the David Price + Craig Kimbrel + Jason Heyward type of off-season that Jays fans were demanding (since Rogers can afford it...and stuff), but that's most likely going to be the bulk of the significant off-season moves. The sooner people realize it, the sooner they can maybe move on and stop the sarcasm when the Jays do what every team does which is sign vets to fill minor league rotation spots.

Lake can hit lefties. Likely never goingg to hit righties though. defensive stats are mixed but it looks like he might play a capable corner OF.

pure platoon guy but could be a good platoon guy.

the optimist in me says this makes a trade of revere/smoak more likely.

How many LHPs are the Blue Jays likely to see in 2016?  Last year, they had about 3.5 times the number of PAs against RHPs than LHPs.  They would face the best ones and the others would get skipped because of Bautista, Donaldson etc.  It doesn't look to me like anything has changed.

Not exactly meriting a Faustian bargain, no-longer-Fausto has been signed to presumably share a locker next to Brad Penny's so they can reminisce about the good old days.

why use a 40-man spot on him? Unless you care about the $20k waiver fee, there's little harm in putting Lake on the 40-man roster now and continuing to look out for pitching depth, knowing that you can just waive Lake later. AA was notorious for this during the off-season, claiming several players who never made it to spring training and several who did end up making some sort of impact (see Colabello, Chris).

Well, it's not the David Price + Craig Kimbrel + Jason Heyward type of off-season that Jays fans were demanding (since Rogers can afford it...and stuff)

I don't recall anyone anywhere saying this, least of all demanding it.

I like the Roberto Hernandez signing, but I'm a bit meh on the other pitchers - it'd be nice to see some guys who can rack up the Ks.  Perhaps this is a Shadkins approach - our rule v guy doesn't get a lot of K's either- trying to take advantage of the D?

Hernandez and Penney both have opt-out clauses that allow them to leave the Jays in late March.  So, unless they have a bad spring training and nobody wants them, they'll probably leave the team at the end of the spring if they're not placed on the 25-man roster.  And both seem unlikely to make the 25-man roster, so it's probably adios to both.  They could follow in the footsteps of Dayan Viciedo, who had a decent spring training for the Jays last year and then simply departed at the end of March when his opt-out clause kicked in.

Dayan Viciedo returned to play AAA for the White Sox and Oakland.

Hernandez and Penney are as likely to get a few MLB starts in TO than anywhere else.
One could stick to Buffalo.

Junior Lake is a borderline MLB player, basically a Shortstop who can play Center and Left. He's under control through 2021, with a Service Time of 1.142. Guys like this come here and hit better, but not always well enough to matter. Some stay and work out, while others don't matter.

The Outfield consists of Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, Ben Revere, Michael Saunders and Dalton Pompey. The Middle Infield consist of Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. Injuries happen and multi-use players become more valuable than believed.

Love it or hate it; like it or dislike it; be indifferent or don't care; Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ are locks for the Rotation, while Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez and Brett Cecil are locks for the Bullpen.

Drew Hutchison and Jesse Chavez are presently 5th and 6th Starters (in some order). To make the Rotation ahead of these guys would suggest that Starter is as good as or better than they are, but might not. It's extremely doubtful Brad Penny can be that Pitcher, whether as Starter or Reliever. Roberto Hernandez on the other hand might, allowing Hutchison and Chavez to be 6th and 7th Starters. He might even make it as a Reliever. If not, it still nice to have competition and options.

I don't think anyone would object to competition for roster spots. Quite a few people might wonder if the players that are being signed will actually provide that competition. I don't think I am the only person who is completely underwhelmed by the players that are being considered as competition. It is very hard to hold Brad Penny up to the light and twist and turn him into some position that makes him seem as if he is a credible option for a Major League rotation spot in 2016.

I really hope we are not a .500 team at the All star break.

Stuff happened last year.

For roughly 100 gms we lost 50. What happened?

The offense did not score a lot every game.

We had some poor defense at times.

Pitching:- The pen had some issues. Loup should have been better. There had to have been other issues.

Pitching:- Rotation. Not enough/any lights out games. Did we shut out any one?

I think our hitters got enough clutch hits to bring in runs in close winnable games.

I also think we had enough depth.

Also many unknowns played well, Pillar, Goins & Cola.

For sure Ogator, bring on the competition, just get more creative with the competitors.

Good read on regime change at Fangraphs today ...Dave Laurilla quotes an anonymous front office exec about the changes in TO:  “I think what is maybe going to change in Toronto is that Alex Anthopoulos was extremely analytical, but also very creative. Not to say that the new group, under Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, won’t be creative, but I think they’ll be a little more measured and deliberate. I’m not saying there wasn’t a set plan with Alex, but at the same time, he was in on everything."

I'd say measured and deliberate sum things up thus far.

Luis Perez signed with the Yakult Swallows in Japan - my old fave team when I was there, they have a beautiful stadium and some truly bizarre fan celebrations (see below).  Good luck to him - at one point pre-injury he looked like he might be a good arm out of the pen for us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4z0l06aRhc

In the first half we saw a Jays team that could blow out people but had bad luck in 1 run games. Even with a better 2nd half they still were just 15-28 in 1 run games. If they were just under 500 in those they'd add 6 wins (21-22), if they played like they did overall (25-18 record then) that'd add 10 wins putting the Jays up to 103 wins - that is what dumb luck should've done but sometimes you flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row.

Overall the Jays sucked when scoring 3 or fewer, which is expected but not to the tune of going 8-48. 4-17 when scoring 3 runs (190 win percent). 4 ore more runs they were 500 or better at every level. That 4-17 should've been more like 7-14 at worst and closer to 10-11.

The flip side is when allowing 3 or less they were 60-13, but just 11-10 when allowing 3 runs, 49-3 when allowing 2 or fewer.

So, if this really was a 103 win quality team then the losses shouldn't have pushed them any lower than the 93 wins they actually had I figure.

"Not to say that the new group, under Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, won’t be creative, but I think they’ll be a little more measured and deliberate"

Yes, this is pretty much the same as my take the day before Anthopoulos decided to leave:

Shapiro seems to be a systems guy, while AA seems to be more of a creative genius who makes intuitive leaps and sees opportunities that other GMs might not see. I'm not sure how well the two would work together. That's just a guess based on limited information; they could end up having a fruitful working relationship.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20151024120523986

I really hope we are not a .500 team at the All star break.

Stuff happened last year.

Yeah, well, stuff always happens. Sometimes it doesn't matter. Three moves were made that totally changed this team. They are not the moves that might be expected.

1) Dioner Navarro is a Free Agent who signed with the Chicago. That made big changes on the Roster.
Russell Martin no longer catches R.A. Dickey so that's a big upgrade. He almost never hit better than Josh Thole when catching R.A., so this is a good move. If healthy, Josh Thole has hit better when he catches regularly, as in replacing Russell. The Jays signed C. Humberto Quintero (20th Nov.) as backup Knuckleball Catcher in AAA. I have no idea if any other moves get made here.
Justin Smoak and Chris Colabello will get more playing time as they don't need to share it with Dioner or with Edwin at 1B. I think that is a big upgrade. Having three players who can play 1B well enough is a luxury.

2) Chris Colabello is no longer the Jays' Left fielder. Thank you, thank you, thank you, that's a big upgrade.
The Jays made a decision on Michael Saunders when he was tendered a contract for 2016. He can play and he's better than Ben Revere. Ezequiel Carrera played better than expected when used and is still on the Roster. Gibbon's said Revere is his Lead-off hitter as long as he's a Blue Jay. Doesn't leave much room for Dalton Pompey?

3) Blue Jays claim SS/OF Junior Lake on waivers from Baltimore Orioles.
To play Shortstop you have to play your position well. To play your position well you have to learn how to play the position well. Trot Tulowitzki is a great Shortstop who will continue to be a very good Shortstop all his career. He' likely to be a middle of the order hitter for a long time. Jose Reyes was a great Shortstop who stopped being a good Shortstop years ago and stopped being a good lead-off hitter since 2013. Devon Travis is a very good Second Baseman who should thrive with Reyes gone as will Josh Donaldson. He hits well. Ryan Goins will always have a job, with his great defense at 2B and SS. Hitting will always be the issue with him. Darwin Barney is a very good defensive Second Baseman who hits fairly good in small sample sizes. Makes you wonder why they need Lake?

Pitching will be better because the Offense and Defense are better. How much better is unknown because it's still a work in progress. The three at the back of the Bullpen and the four in the Rotation make this a better Team. Just how much better it gets is the question?

We  had some poor defense at times.

Hopefully shortstop and left field and taken care of.

I don't know if Loup should have been better. I know that he should have seen fewer right handed batters.
If Osuna closes and Cecil sets him up, the pen could be effective early on, which wasn't the case last year.

I think Hernandez has a good chance of making the team. He's a solid depth SP option and can be a useful 'swing man' option out of the pen if/when Chavez gets the #5 spot. He still generates a lot of GB's and might be able to take advantage of the slower turf and improved infield defense (Donaldson-Tulo-Goins-Barney until Travis gets back). That would allow Hutchison to start in Buffalo.

The others look like minor league filler, unless Penny's velocity can make him a useful one inning reliever. At age 38, he's not going to get many chances to make the bigs as a starter, so I think he might stay in Buffalo, but who knows. Hernandez seems like someone who would opt out if he didn't make the team, as he's solid enough to be a useful long man option somewhere.

As far as Junior Lake, remains to be seen what the plan is there. His minor league performance has been good lately, but he's apparently out of options, so who knows what they have in mind.

New York Yankees were always able to keep guys like Penny, Hernandez and even better players in AAA without opt-outs, until needed. I learned it was simple, pay them $300.0 K to play there until needed.

Whispers today that Kazmir is linked to the A's, Orioles and Dodgers for a contract in the $12M - $13M AAV range, which is about $3M less than I speculated in the previous thread. Of course, the A's just picked up ex-Jay Henderson Alvarez on a 1 year, $4M deal with some incentives, which I think may turn into sneaky-good value given Hendo's age and performance prior to his shoulder troubles. The Royals also appear to be kicking the tires on Chen.

IMO, having teams like the A's, Orioles and Royals wade into the market signifies that buyers must believe there is price/performance value now that the initial fervor is over. It'll be interesting to see if the Jays stick to their fiscal constipation or if this is significantly enough lower 'risk' for them to reinforce their rotation or if they're really going to scrape the bottom of the barrel a couple of months from now.

First Team to offer four years signs Kazmir. But would 3 years and $45.0 Million do it?

Here are some arts recommendations for the holidays with baseball overtones.  The movie Spotlight is very fine.  It is very much rooted in its locale, Boston, and unsurprisingly the sports references are all Red Sox rather than Bruins, Celtics or Patriots. Roger Angell's latest collection is probably worth having.  Stacy May Fowles review here gives you a good idea about what to expect.

Things could be worse. MLB Trade Rumors says that... Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli may be the Indians’ last notable moves of the winter. They also got Dan Otero, Joe Thatcher, Joba Chamberlain, etc. That for a 500 team in a division with one strong team (KC) that has a budget issue.

Lets hope the new crew running the show here aren't as cowardly with acquisitions as the people they left behind in Cleveland.

Brendan Kennedy of the Star has a piece on Joe Sheehan, recently promoted to director of analytics.

This is the first I've heard of the Jays analytic database - "The BEEST", which functions as a "one-stop shop for all of the organization’s analytical tools, consolidating scouting and health reports with statistical projections and contract details."

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2015/12/19/the-jays-joe-sheehan-is-living-life-by-the-numbers.html

Leake signs with the Cards for 5yr/$80M with some incentives to push it a bit higher. So it looks like the Leake/Chen/Kazmir/Happ tier of FA pitching is going to range from $13M to $16M.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14420846/mike-leake-close-signing-deal-st-louis-cardinals

Of note: the Jays barely were top 10 for payroll in the end for 2015 - $135,728,804 vs #11 Cubs $133,051,389. I think it'll take $150 for 2016 to stay in the top 10. Of note: no team with a higher payroll made the ALCS or NLCS.

i wouldn't put happ and leake in the same tier. leake is a very reliable innings eater in his prime.

i wouldn't put happ and leake in the same tier. leake is a very reliable innings eater in his prime.

I was just grouping them in terms of annual salary. Price + Greinke vs. Zimmerman + Cueto vs. the group I listed above.

I agree with you in terms of who the better investment is, given track record and age. In this bunch, I'd want Leake > Kazmir = Chen > Happ.

If Kazmir does sign for the same AAV as Happ, that will be a fun direct comparison to track next season. The Jays jumped on him early, so I wonder if they feared his market value would be higher by the time more desirable SPs were off the market.

If any of you are like me, you'll be watching that HOF tracker I posted in the story above. Raines is now at 79.6% after 93 ballots. Also over 75% right now is Jeff Bagwell (84.9%), Ken Griffey Jr (100%), Mike Piazza (91.4%). Meanwhile Hoffman, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling are over 50% with Alan Trammel & Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens very close at 49.5%.

To stay on the ballot it is estimated it'll take 23 votes. Jeff Kent has 15 already so he is safe, Fred McGriff 18 so he should be safe too, Larry Walker only has 11 votes so far but should be OK (but his odds of ever getting in are low I'd say).

Raines is +8 vs last year with this set of voters. Edgar Martinez is the leader in gains at +16 so far as is Mussina. Bagwell is up 15 vs last year at this point.

Eric Thames won the MVP of the KBO league in South Korea. Is it now time to bring him to Toronto ?

I'd leave him there one more year - then we'll have a DH/RF slot open most likely and he'll be cheap. If he is ML minimum range then why not I'd say as he might have fixed any holes that killed him before.

Just for fun... 3 free agents this winter. One got a 3 year deal, one a 5 year, another still is out there and expected to get 4 years or more.

Age in 2016-BB/9:SO/9:HR/9 for 2015; lifetime
A) 28-2.4:4.7:1.3; 2.3:6.1:1.1
B) 32-2.9:7.6:1.0; 3.6:8.5:1.0
C) 33-2.4:7.9:0.8; 3.5:7.6:1.1

A got 3 years, A got 5, B is still out there. Given equivalent defenses which would you expect to have the best 2016 and beyond? I know I wouldn't want to bet on A with the low K rate in 2015 and by far the lowest K rate among all 3 yet he got the 5 year deal. B and C are pretty close, B better lifetime but C better in 2015 so it depends how you value recent vs lifetime I guess.

Most here I'm sure know who those 3 are. Leake, Kazmir, and Happ. Looking at their stats I'm a lot happier than I was at first with the signing of Happ. I remember liking the Jays getting him at first way back when but he never really did much here (90 ERA+ 291 IP) Yeah, it was the NL and only 1/2 a season that he took off in but if any of that was real he could be one of the biggest bargains of the winter.

Yeah, it was the NL and only 1/2 a season that he took off in but if any of that was real he could be one of the biggest bargains of the winter.

It was the NL against bad teams in the park that suppressed right handed hitting the most.

In 2016  with the improved defense I'm expecting 100 ERA+.

A 100 ERA+ if he can get enough innings in will replace Buehrle quite nicely (104 ERA+ 15-8 record).

Toronto has a great Offense; a very good Defense and a strong three in the Bullpen - none of this was here for most of last year.
All that J.A. Happ needs to do is replace Mark Buehrle and be equal to or better. That should be easy.
Marco Estrada replaces himself and should easily be better.
R.A. Dickey replaces R.A. Dickey and could have his best year ever.
Sanchez, 5 guys named "who" and Price won 17 games. Marcus Stroman needs to replace that. I think he'll be better.
Whomever replaces Drew Hutchison including himself just needs to be a bit better.

Yankees pick up Chapman for spare parts...

Yankees pick up Chapman for spare parts...

They get him on the cheap AND a possible suspension may work in the Yankees favor in terms of postponing his free agency as well.

Not sure the East will ever be as vulnerable as it was in 2015 again.

Is it the end of Andrew Miller the closer?

That's a nasty 7-8-9.

Here's hoping A-Rod has a horrible year.

The Blue Jays would not have gotten Chapman because they don't have four similar prospects that bad to trade.

Even assuming that he isn't suspended by MLB, Chapman essentially replaces Justin Wilson who in turn was very good for the Yankees last season. Personally, the cost of adding an alleged wife-beater in both goodwill and prospect capital seems awfully steep for the improvement they are likely to see. This, coming from a Dallas Cowboys fan that is still horrified that the team added Greg Hardy this previous offseason and is not the slightest bit upset at the team's misfortunes this year.