I think the Burrell signing is actually quite astute --- they've locked him in for what should be his most productive years, one season before he's likely to go ballistic on the league and post truly breakout numbers. He's got a great supporting cast; Thome in particular should be a great influence on Burrell off the field, where he's been a little slow to mature, and on the field, where Burrell will have better protection than any NL batter who doesn't look over to see Barry Bonds in the on-deck circle.

I understand it's a heavily backloaded contract too, which is likely another ramification of the luxury tax's expiration in several years' time, as well as a clever move to relieve some of the payroll strain this Phillies squad is inflicting on the bottom line. For all that, I expect this team to start slowly, costing Larry Bowa his job around May 20, to be followed by a hot streak over the summer and an easy victory over the Braves, whose decline has shifted from graceful to precipitous.

Ed Wade has taken a lot of deserved heat, from his high-priced middle relievers to his contribution to the Scott Rolen fiasco. But he also deserves a ton of credit for spotting talent (stealing Bobby Abreu, acquiring Vincente Padilla in the Schilling trade), developing it (Burrell, Duckworth, Wolf, Rollins) and adding key pieces at an opportune time (Thome, Bell and almost Glavine). I think it's time we moved him up onto the B-list of General Managers, with an option for A-list if he continues to do well.

J.P. will soon be all alone on the "eh?" list.

If there were character or injury issues with Burrell, this might seem excessive, but he's one of those special talents, like Roy Halladay, you make exceptions for. Thome will have his usual slow start and take a while to adjust to the NL, so it may be a convenient time to sack Bowa, the new skipper landing in a perfect spot. Larry could survive and win with this lineup. It's up to Wade, who has been good -- and lucky -- this winter. He outbid himself for Thome and Bell and had Millwood fall into his lap, but his team is the "most improved" frontrunner.

I think Burrell's signing was largely related to Bobby Abreu, who the Phillies would have gotten for way less had they signed him long-term before 2002. It's pretty clear after 1999 they should have inked him long-term to buy out his arbitration years and get themselves a better deal on his first couple free agent eligible years.

However, that's going to be one expensive lineup in 2006:

Burrell: 13 million
Abreu: 13 million
Thome: ~15 million

40+ million for 3 hitters. I hope their farm system comes up with some cheap players to pick up the slack...

jc

Jack, that's a good point. The problem with paying top dollar for all your good players is that you risk not being able to plug the gaping holes.

Also, add Mike Lieberthal at $7.5 million per season until 2005 (and maybe 2006 as well, or a $1.25 million buyout).

That being said, Abreu/Burrell/Thome are the best 2-4 or 3-5 combo in baseball. Of course, a three-man offense rarely gets the job done, but just two other hitters will get the runs flowing in a big, big way. If Lieberthal can stay healthy, he'll be one for 120 games a year, and maybe Marlon Byrd can be the other one. If not, Polanco has a shot (albeit a distant one) at being another, but there again you have someone who's about to get expensive.

Polanco's numbers are a lot better than I gave him credit for (maybe that's what happens when you are associated with players like Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen!) 288/330/403 is not bad at all for a middle infielder. He's still fairly young, so he could improve a little bit more and turn into a decent leadoff hitter.

If they bat Rollins #1 they are going to sacrifice a lot of outs. Polanco should hit there, followed by Abreu-Burrell-Thome in the 2-3-4 spots in the order. Then Bell and Lieberthal to clean up all that OBP. Byrd and Rollins should be at the bottom of the order until they demonstrate some consistent on-base skills.

That's a pretty scary lineup.

jc

It's a little unfair to say the Phillies are buying a title by signing one of their own players, who is still three years from free agency. And saying the Jays got cheaper and better is a tad specious. They'll be better because their young players will continue to improve, not because they were fiscally prudent.

Most everything Jordan says is true. Burrell will be a bargain at that salary. I don't know, however, what influence Thome will have as a "veteran presence." As for Thome adjusting to the NL, later this week I'll have something about how difficult or easy it is to change leagues. Might even throw something together about the myth of one player protecting another.

Finally: Placido Polanco a lead-off hitter? Ay, caramba!

"The Yankees could be dismissed as mavericks." Maybe not...see
www.theonion.com.

Nice grab, rodent, and thanks to a couple of other readers who e-mailed about this one; here's the link. Managing is always a challenge:

With so many egos to juggle and so many personnel decisions to make, Torre said his job will actually be harder this season, the lack of opposing players notwithstanding.