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Over at Baseball Prospectus, Will Carroll is running a series of Team Health Reports for each major-league club. It's supposed to be an inventory of aches and pains currently afflicting various regulars and/or their propensity to break down over the course of the year. But since the Blue Jays are a relatively healthy bunch this spring (middle infielders notwithstanding), the Jays report is mostly a summary of organizational developments, and it's a very positive one.

Carroll talks about the organization's vision in numerous areas, starting with their courage to take three promising catching prospects out from behind the plate (and in Joe Lawrence's case, out of the organization). Frank Catalanotto's historical gimpiness is parsed, the club's careful handling of Roy Halladay is praised. and a Kelvim Escobar-Brandon Duckworth trade is proposed (great idea, but I don't think even Ed Wade would go for that).

The only odd thing for me was comparing Josh Phelps's likely career trajectory to Harold Baines. Granted that Phelps adjusts terrifically well and will likely be a better hitter for average than we think, he also has way more power in his tank than Baines ever did. To my mind, Phelps projects to a .275/.350 average/on-base line with anywhere from 35-45 HRs annually, depending on whether (as I suspect) the great baseball pendulum starts to swing back to the pitchers in this decade.
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_Cristian Coucho - Thursday, March 06 2003 @ 04:43 PM EST (#22241) #
I was surprised that Shannon Stewart was a given a green light with his hamstring problems.

I think he might have slipped under the radar.
Craig B - Thursday, March 06 2003 @ 05:10 PM EST (#22242) #
Since Stewart has gone over 145 games once in five years, I'm also surprised that he's green-lighted. Good call, Cristian.

I agree with Gideon that Harold Baines, a line-drive hitter who made good contact and a very nimble rightfielder, is a slightly bizarre comparison for Josh Phelps (Baines did have very good power though).

Phelps reminds me more of Mark McGwire (pre-strike version... not the dominant post-strike version), a comparison I can't get out of my head since Robert Dudek shouted it to me after a Roger Clemens fastball was mashed into the 500 level in left field at around 8:15pm last August 29.

Another good comparison would be Greg Luzinski... perhaps even better than early McGwire.
Coach - Thursday, March 06 2003 @ 05:14 PM EST (#22243) #
Woodward -- green? Flashing yellow is more like it. He was the starter for one day when he got hurt last summer, and he's got another "minor" problem right now. Delgado missed time with his back and knee last summer.

Halladay's workload has been discussed here before. Carroll agrees:

Despite the massive increase in innings, Halladay shouldn't be considered a more significant injury risk than any other pitcher. His mechanics, once retooled by a trip to Single-A, remain flawless, and there are few pitchers I would point to as more likely to repeat their 2002 performance and health.

I like the conclusion. To paraphrase, "Don't look back, Yankees and Red Sox, because somethin' might be gainin'."
robertdudek - Thursday, March 06 2003 @ 11:28 PM EST (#22244) #
"Baines to me is the definition of DH and a player whose career wouldn't have existed without the role."

That's a joke, right? Baines had 7 years as an above average right fielder.

This Phelps kid is going to slug .600 - and that time is not far away.
_R Billie - Friday, March 07 2003 @ 11:06 AM EST (#22245) #
I thought it was interesting that Will Caroll also had the same thoughts about a possible Escobar for Duckworth deal. I guess it will depend on how their camps go and how they start the season.
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