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Three pitchers with the AA Carolina Mudcats combined last night to throw a seven-inning no-hitter. This comes one night after the AA Akron Aeros had three pitchers combine on a seven-inning no-no of their own. And that followed by one night the wildly improbable nine-inning perfect game by AAA Nashville Sounds and former big-league journeyman John Wasdin.

Now, I'm no Jayson Stark, but I'm pretty sure that never before, on any combination of major- and minor-league levels, have there been no-hitters on three consecutive days in professional baseball. I don't even want to guess at the odds against it. There are caveats, of course: 21-out minor-league no-hitters aren't as impressive as the real thing, for one --- kind of like saying Dreamcatcher was a great movie except for the last half-hour. And the frigid weather lately has probably been an advantage to pitchers -- witness the 26K-duel between Javier Vazquez and Mark Prior in chilly Wrigley yesterday.

But even though these three straight no-hitters have only freak coincidence value, I'm taking them as a symbol of a deeper, unrelated trend: the gradual but definite swing of the pendulum back from the hitters' era of the '90s to a new pitchers' era of the '00s. The young guns that have emerged in the last few years -- Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf, Vincente Padilla, Brett Myers, Brandon Duckworth, Brad Penny, AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, Javier Vazquez, and Matt Morris, to name some -- and those yet to come, including the likes of Rich Harden and Jason Arnold, presage a new dominance of pitching. I predict that by 2006, we'll be looking back at the 60- and 70- home run seasons of the late '90s and shaking our heads in disbelief. Baseball is a game of cycles, and I think the pitching cycle is in ascendance.
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_Jordan - Thursday, April 10 2003 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#90976) #
Further to this topic, if you have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan has an article on current and future right-handed pitching studs.
Gitz - Thursday, April 10 2003 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#90977) #
Jordan,

That is quite a list of young pitchers; there are more top young pitchers than young hitters. In fact, a great deal more. Off the top of my frazzled head, I can't think of more than a handful or two of truly young impact hitters. Alex Rodriguez, Eric Chavez, Josh Phelps, Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, Pat Burrell, Lance Berkman. Even those guys aren't "young" in the sense that Prior and Beckett are young. Most of the established stars are in their late 20s, early 30s (and in the case of Barry Bonds, their late 30s), and their replacements are nowhere to be found.

Or are they? Is there a young hitter as good as any of those pitchers 25 or younger? I thought Dunn would be the one, and he may yet be, but he's taken a large step back. Phelps is good, but he's not as good as Oswalt or Zito, contextually, nor even as good as Prior. I know I'm missing a few hitters somewhere, so let's work on getting a list together of hitters who will have an impact similar to all those young arms. I'll start the list with Mark Texeira ...
_Sean - Thursday, April 10 2003 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#90978) #
This might be an appropriate venue to ask what non-free baseball content on the Web people spend money on, and why their purchases are worthwhile (eg. premium Prospectus). I don't currently do so, but would be willing to upon trusted recommendation.
Craig B - Thursday, April 10 2003 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#90979) #
There is so much good free stuff that I can't even get to, I simply don't have the time to buy anything. If I had more time to deal with baseball issues, I might, but I can't imagine anything out there that's non-free that I'd think was a good value.

I guess if I was a programmer looking for a daily- or real-time updated stats database which is automatically downloadable... now that Yahoo! no longer posts their .csv data, such a thing no longer exists for free.

I suppose the one thing I do "spend money for" is my SABR membership, which includes access to SABR Online (which I don't use) and SABR-L (which I do read quite assiduously). But it's not a question of paying for Web content.
_Jordan - Thursday, April 10 2003 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#90980) #
John, I tend to agree with your assessment, so let's see if we're on the right track. Let's identify the dominant and/or widely heralded young hitters and pitchers in the game and compare their numbers. We'll include prospects that still fall into the "can't-miss" category, even if they've struggled. For "young," let's say 25 or less on Opening Day 2003.

Hitters (10)
Hank Blalock
Sean Burroughs
Hee Seop Choi
Joe Crede
Mike Cuddyer
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Josh Phelps
Albert Pujols
Mark Teixeira

Pitchers (16)
Kurt Ainsworth
Jason Arnold
Josh Beckett
Mark Buehrle
Jesse Foppert
Rich Harden
Byung-Hyun Kim
Brett Myers
Odalis Perez
Joel Pineiro
Mark Prior
Francisco Rodriguez
CC Sabathia
Johan Santana
Jerome Williams
Barry Zito

These lists don't even fully illustrate the dominance of young pitchers. Several of the best young arms (Halladay, Oswalt, Morris, Mulder) were born in '77 and just missed the 25-and-under cutoff (though in fairness, so did Alfonso Soriano). Moreover, fewer than half the listed hitters have yet posted a single solid major-league season, while 9 of the 16 pitchers have already done so.

I've probably missed a few guys on either side, but overall, the pitchers appear to be ahead of the hitters at this stage. Here's hoping that injuries and don't take their toll on these young arms, and that the pendulum does indeed continue to swing back towards the moundsmen.
Coach - Friday, April 11 2003 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#90981) #
The pitchers are always ahead of the hitters early in the decade. :)

If the pendulum has already swung, which is hard to refute, it's going to be great for the Pastime. The noise about juiced baseballs and juiced players will diminish, and a 3-2 game has so much more drama than a 13-12 affair with a dozen pitching changes.

Not all of the young guns will achieve their considerable potential, but there's another big wave of pitching talent behind the guys already mentioned above. It's even possible that in 3-4 years, for the first time since over-expansion diluted the pool, there will be enough depth to fill 30 rotations with big-league arms.
robertdudek - Friday, April 11 2003 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#90982) #
I think that strikeouts and walks need to decrease if the game is to regain full health. I like Bill James' suggestions (in the NHBA) about moving the batter's box back and establishing and increasing the minimum circumference of the bat handle incrementally.

We need more balls in play and I'm afraid that the current crop of power pitchers will simply add to the already historic level of strikeouts.
Gitz - Friday, April 11 2003 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#90983) #
I think walks are actually down (no research from this hack) since MLB adopted the "real" strike zone.
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