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Winter still reigns in most parts of Canada, but on the Toronto baseball beat, you can see the first signs of a spring thaw. Ken Fidlin wrote a strongly positive column about the Jays' chances in 2004 and beyond in today's Sun (assuming you can find the column amidst all the sidebars and advertisements). Thanks to Jimmy Key's Christmas Lights, my favourite Box moniker, for the link.

There's nothing very new in the column about the Jays, although I did quite like this observation:

If this year is like most others, there will be great wads of newsprint wasted on daily descriptions of the competition for that final starter's position in Florida and then, a month into the season, the winner will be back in the minors.

Ain't that the truth. That phenomenon really speaks to the depressing tendency of many organizations to make snap decisions on who will start the season in the rotation or in left field, based on 40 springtime innings or plate appearances against other clubs' A-Ball prospects. And then they're shocked -- shocked! -- when the player who shone in March gets whipped in April. If Josh Towers emerges as fifth starter this spring, as is expected, then it will be based on his performance last year in the majors as much as on anything he does in Dunedin (it's also worth noting that thanks to the schedule, the Jays won't even need a fifth starter until a few weeks into the season).

This article is noteworthy, however, for what it represents: the first mainstream column in many years that's really excited about the Jays' chances and their new direction. Many of us here have seen the shift in the organization from the day JP Ricciardi took over, and have tracked the small but constantly growing signs of change for the better. But many scribes, mistaking deadwood-chopping for cost-cutting salary dumps, thought the Blue Jays were waving an organizational white flag in the interests of Rogers' bottom line. To be fair, they were entitled to be skeptical, and couldn't afford to take a fan's viewpoint. But even for all that, the thaw has been a long time coming.

What JP has accomplished here, after the first two years of rebuilding, is to turn the Jays' image from underachieving, overpaid slowpokes to young, hungry, hustling underdogs -- the part that every athlete and every team simply loves to play. The Jays are about to become underground heroes, sleepers who will soon break into the wider public consciousness, and people are starting to pick up on it. I still don't think the Jays are a playoff team, and although that has more to do with their division than with their talent, there are still verifiable holes on this team that will not be plugged all year. But they are starting to win the battles against apathy and cynicism in their hometown, and soon they'll be winning the war. This column may represent the first flag raised on the battlefield.
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_Paul D - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 11:07 AM EST (#79268) #
Interesting article. I have a question. I know that Griffin gets bashed alot here, but who in Toronto covers baseball and is good? I know Jeff Blair is okay... I only read the Globe and Mail. Are there good writers I"m missing at the Sun, Post or Star?
_Ryan - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 11:31 AM EST (#79269) #
Allan Ryan at the Star usually doesn't have an axe to grind. He's the only tollerable baseball writer at that paper. Geoff Baker occasionally says something insightful without any obvious bias.

Bob Elliott at the Sun is good for information, but if he tries to analyse anything you should ignore him. Plus, he's still bitter about his friends in the scouting department getting canned.

Mike Rutsey at the Sun is usually fair, but since he's mostly a beat writer there's not much of a chance to show any bias.

Among other Sun writers: Ken Fidlin and Mike Ulmer are hit-and-miss. Steve Simmons should be ignored.

John Lott at the National Post isn't bad when he does publish something (which is rare). Spencer Fordin at the official site is real good, but I have to wonder how objective he would be if the organization did do something worthy of criticism.
_Jordan - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 11:44 AM EST (#79270) #
Ryan, while I agree with your summary generally, I would be a little less harsh in places. White Jays notwithstanding, I think Geoff Baker is actually very good; he's tuned into what the organization is doing, even if he doesn't always agree with it. I have no problems with Allan Ryan.

I also like Mike Rutsey at the Sun, but I haven't seen enough of Ulmer or Fidlin to make a call either way. John Lott writes rarely at the Post, but when he does, I find it's very good. Spencer Fordin gets it, and is also very good; it's not easy when you're paid by the industry, but I find his writing does walk that line very well.

We'd be extremely remiss if we didn't mention Jeff Blair's partner, Stephen Brunt, who I consider probably the best of the mainstream baseball writers in Canada; the Globe is very well served by its baseball staff, and I look forward to a lot of coverage this year.

I think that covers everyone in the Toronto-area press whom I would recommend reading.
_Ryan - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 12:05 PM EST (#79271) #
Ryan, while I agree with your summary generally, I would be a little less harsh in places.

Like many of Toronto's baseball writers, I'm a grump by nature. ;-)
_coliver - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 12:31 PM EST (#79272) #
It was nice to see some positive stuff. I have always enjoyed reading Fidlin.

Regarding the 5th starter and the overhype, two distinct years came to mind:

1. 1988: Todd Stottlemyre vs Bob Shirley. Todd got the spot, ended up in Syracuse for a while and Shirley became St. Catherines pitching coach. Jose Nunez should have been given that 5th spot.

2. 1991: The Great Canadian Hope, Denis Boucher. In June he was traded to Cleveland along with Glenallen Hill and Mark Whitten for Tom Candiotti. Candiotti ended up pitching poorly in the ALCS (anyone remember Larry Grossman's outstanding book, "A Baseball Addict's Diary"?)

Ah Memories...
_Matthew E - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 12:54 PM EST (#79273) #
I think the best 5th starter was probably Hentgen in '93. Well, he started out as the fifth starter, anyway. I was not a believer that year, but he turned me around in '94.

anyone remember Larry Grossman's outstanding book, "A Baseball Addict's Diary"?

I remember it, but I wouldn't go quite so far as to call it 'outstanding'. It was pretty okay.
_coliver - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 01:12 PM EST (#79274) #
To each their own, Grossman's book is one of my favorite all-time books on the Jays. It was based on a fan's perspective, which made it unique. He had a radio show the next year on CFRB on Sunday nights that was equally as enjoyable (I was on the show every week it was on). Grossman had a love for the game and an ability to relate well with the callers.
_Ryan Day - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 01:15 PM EST (#79275) #
I find the Sun's stuff hit and miss. (Aside from Simmons, that is, who seems to follow the "less is more" dictum when it comes to logic) They're not always brilliant, but at the same time there's no obvious agenda as there is with Griffin & Baker (whose work I find to be littered with snide asides and pot shots). I usually enjoy Bob Elliott's work, so long as he's not talking about the poor scouts who J.P. callously fired and, one suspects from Elliott's columns, later ran over with his car.
_Matthew E - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 01:47 PM EST (#79276) #
coliver: One of the problems with Grossman's book is that Jon Caulfield set the bar for seasonal-diary-of-a-Jays-fan books pretty high in '84 with his book Jays!, which is only the best book ever written about the Blue Jays. Grossman's book is still easily in the top half of Jays-related books. If I had to rank them:

1. Jays! (Jon Caulfield)
2. Diamond Dreams (Stephen Brunt)
3. Foul Balls (Alison Gordon)
4. Fungo Blues (Philippe van Rjndt and Patrick Blednick)
5. A Baseball Addict's Diary (Larry Grossman)
6. Game Day (Martin & Sean O'Malley)
7. Road to Glory (Tom Cheek and Howard Berger)
8. Tomorrow I'll Be Perfect (Dave Stieb and Kevin Boland)
9. Ballpark Figures (Larry Millson)
10. From Worst to First (Buck Martinez) (ranked this high because he seems to have written it all by himself)
11. The Last Out (Buck Martinez) (ranked this high because he seems to have written it all by himself)
12. Catch! (Ernie Whitt and Greg Cable)
13. Glory Jays (Rosie DiManno)
14. Hardball! (George Bell and Bob Elliott)
15. Second to None: The Roberto Alomar Story (Stephen Brunt)
16. Kelly! (Kevin Boland)

haven't read it: Good Timing (Paul Molitor and someone)
_S.K. - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 02:00 PM EST (#79277) #
I'd forgotten about Game Day. I enjoyed it immensely, though that was back in my unenlightened (read: young) sports-fan days. Particularly good was the chapter on the Rickey-Unit trade machinations, and how close the Jays came to getting Randy Johnson.
_Matthew E - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 02:29 PM EST (#79278) #
I probably should have included David Driscoll's Jays Jazz books in there too. How many were there? I tracked down two of 'em, '87 and '88 (or '86 and '87, depending on how you're counting). I guess I'd fit them between 9 and 10 on that list.
_Jordan - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 02:55 PM EST (#79279) #
That's a great list of books, Matthew -- but it's both sad and revealing that none of them were written after (or concern events after) 1994. That means there are two genres of Jays books waiting to be written: the post-Series decline of the organization (1994-2001) and the revitalized Ricciardi years (2001-?). Both of those, if done properly, would make fascinating reading.
_Blue in SK - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 03:25 PM EST (#79280) #
I hope I get his name right, but Shi Davidi does some good work covering the Jays as well. Although, he has yet to write frequently about them. And darned, if I can recall which media empire he works for.
_Ryan - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 03:26 PM EST (#79281) #
Davidi is with the Canadian Press.
_JayK - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 04:29 PM EST (#79282) #
If this new book, Chasing Steinbrenner, does deliver in following around J.P. for the season, where might it rank? It was a pretty odd season.
_Matthew E - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 04:40 PM EST (#79283) #
If this new book, Chasing Steinbrenner, does deliver in following around J.P. for the season, where might it rank?

It might rank anywhere. Well, not anywhere; the concept all by itself should put it above the bottom four I listed. At least as far as I'm concerned. After that, it depends on how good a writer the guy is. I'm looking forward to finding out.
Craig B - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 04:45 PM EST (#79284) #
Word on Diamond Dreams and Foul Balls.

We should write a book about the Ash era.
_Mark - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 04:47 PM EST (#79285) #
Anyone see the AL East Established Win Shares Report over at Baseball Crank? Toronto doesn't look all that great based on that analysis, but it's not predictive (thankfully!).
_Matthew E - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 04:56 PM EST (#79286) #
From that article:

they should clear 72 wins comfortably

Nothing like going out on a limb.
_Dr. Zarco - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 04:57 PM EST (#79287) #
Mark, that EWSL Report is rather interesting, but doesn't particularly mean a whole lot. Adding up totals just can't be a good way to measure a team. I know it's not supposed to be predictive, but hey, that's what we do in February. I wonder if this report has come out in past years and it compared to the actual standings. I guess my point is...SEVENTY TWO wins? Come on! By mid-late August maybe...
Coach - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 06:52 PM EST (#79288) #
the Globe is very well served by its baseball staff

Brunt is more of a general sports columnist now, though still excellent when he writes on baseball, and Blair does a terrific job, but you forgot the dean of the local press box, Larry Millson, who gives the Globe a talented triple threat. It's a shame that their paper doesn't give the sport more coverage, but the quality is superb.

Over the past three years, the Jays have finally made the transition, at least in the minds of people who are paying attention, from overpaid underachievers into one of baseball's "little engines that could," a hard-working, low-maintenance outfit that is easy to admire.

Fidlin, talking about how the club has shed its "lousy image," got everything right except the timing. The complete overhaul has taken only two years and a couple of months, which makes it all the more amazing.

It's refreshing to read anything in a local paper that acknowledges the huge strides made in such a short time. So far, everything has gone according to J.P.'s plan, and many of us who are paying attention agree: "This train just might arrive ahead of schedule."
Dave Till - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 07:15 PM EST (#79289) #
We should write a book about the Ash era.

You could call it Plenty of Seats Available in All Price Ranges.

:-)
_Matthew E - Monday, February 09 2004 @ 07:27 PM EST (#79290) #
Many of us here have seen the shift in the organization from the day JP Ricciardi took over, and have tracked the small but constantly growing signs of change for the better. But many scribes, mistaking deadwood-chopping for cost-cutting salary dumps, thought the Blue Jays were waving an organizational white flag in the interests of Rogers' bottom line. To be fair, they were entitled to be skeptical, and couldn't afford to take a fan's viewpoint.

I don't see that at all. We weren't optimistic because we were fans; we were optimistic because we had excellent reason to be. I don't blame the media for being skeptical; I do blame them for being cynical, and I blame them for not knowing what we knew.

Take me (late 2001 version). I had no insider connections of any kind, and I had little familiarity with and no mastery of any kind of advanced sabremetrics. I was just a guy who's read his Bill James and Rob Neyer. (All of which is basically still true.) So if I could figure out that Ricciardi was exactly what the Jays organization needed, how come the Toronto media couldn't? I mean, it's only their job to understand stuff like that.
_coliver - Tuesday, February 10 2004 @ 07:37 AM EST (#79291) #
Caulfield's book is the only one on the list that I have never read. Hopefully I can find a copy somewhere.

I remember Fungo Blues and really enjoying it...the first real unauthorized book on the Jays and the first book that really took a look at the Jays' minor league organization!
robertdudek - Wednesday, February 11 2004 @ 08:53 PM EST (#79292) #
I think it's because there was tons of skepticism about the "Sabermetric" (for lack of a better term) approach to organisation building in the mainstream media. There still is, though with more and more converts in front offices, it's going to get difficult to maintain the skepticism and not find yourself marginalised.

More and more insiders are talking about the "Beane approach" and that's going to force all the mainstream media to consider some of the new ideas.
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