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Just how important was the Jays' come-from-behind victory last night? Time will tell. While it could just be a blip of Chris Gomez magic, it might also be the game when the Jays, facing a stud starter with nary a break to be found, reversed their slide and began their ascension into relevance in the American League East.

In recent years, the Jays have owned the Orioles, but the new-look Birds trounced Toronto in three straight at SkyDome last weekend. Will it be "road sweet road" for the Jays?

The Orioles' offensive acquisitions have been hitting up a storm. More impressive, though -- and possibly more important to the club's early success -- has been the outstanding work up and down the Orioles bullpen. Other than a Jorge Julio gag job in Tampa a week and a half ago, Baltimore's bullpen has been as lights-out as any in baseball. Here's hoping the Jays channel some of last night's late-inning magic -- but a few early leads wouldn't hurt, either.

On to the Advance Scout!

* Last weekend's embarrassing series at SkyDome was the Birds' first sweep of the Jays since 1994 -- and Baltimore had some good clubs in that span ... The Jays had swept the Orioles in six of their previous sixteen series ... Until this week, the 9-5 Orioles hadn't been four games above .500 since May 2000 ... New manager Lee Mazzilli has been impressed with his crew: "This team always finds a way to get it done" ...

* Tonight's starter, Eric DuBose, hopes to stymie the Jays again ... Not that anyone wants to relive the debacle of last Sunday's game, but DuBose went seven shutout innings, allowing just one walk and three hits while striking out five ...

* Leadoff man Brian Roberts has hit in nine of his last ten games (.348), but had his eight-game hitting streak snapped on Wednesday ...

* Javy Lopez, continuing to improbably look like a bargain, had his career-high 13-game hitting streak snapped last night ... He also hit in his last three regular-season games of 2003 ... He's still hitting a robust .429/.508/.679 ... He's already racked up seven multi-hit games ...

* B.J. Ryan is coming into his own as a fine reliever this season ... His total stats on the year: 9 1/3 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 13 K ... Ryan credited Mark Wiley with helping him develop smoother mechanics -- and he also credited Mazzilli with using him against lefties and righties during spring training, enabling him to be comfortable during longer outings ... Mazzilli: "The key is try to put your guys in situations to succeed" ...

* His more veteran fellow lefty in the pen, Buddy Groom, also boasts an unblemished ERA ... Groom's season line: 4 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K ...

* Lefty long man John Parrish was off to a rocky start, but he tossed two perfect innings last night to earn his first win since September 2001 ...

* Tomorrow's starter, Ontario's own Erik Bedard, will start -- legally -- for the first time since his illegal start at Tropicana Field ...

* Rafael Palmeiro is hitting .300/.406/.460, but his 10/3 BB/K ratio is particularly impressive ... Interestingly, Raffy reached 17th place all-time in both the RBI and the total bases career ledgers on Tuesday ... Palmeiro is the all-time leader in Camden Yards homers with 102. Surprisingly, though, his 102nd last night was his first since May 1999, when he homered as a Ranger ... Palmeiro recently explained that he's struggling to undo his dead-pull swing that was well-suited to the Ballpark in Arlington. Raffy conceded that the pronounced shift most managers employ against him costs him about 20 net hits a year ...

* Melvin Mora continues to enjoy his hot start, as he's at .310/.385/.483 on the season ... Watch for the bunt single; Mora laid down a beauty last night ... Unfortunately, Mora is continuing to boot the ball all over third base as he struggles to adjust to his new position ...

* Jorge Julio has allowed only one run this season, and has chipped in with three straight scoreless outings ... Palmeiro: "If we can get to our bullpen with the lead, we're going to have a lot of wins" ...

* Jay Gibbons has made 13 starts this season. In one, he recorded two hits. In two, he went hitless. In the other ten, he's tallied exactly one hit ... Gibbons sat out Tuesday with a stiff lower back, but returned the next day ...

* Miguel Tejada has hit in six of his last seven (.400) ... He continues to hold the active ironman lead, having played in 608 straight games ...

* Crusty old David Segui has hit in six of his last seven (.355) ... He's putting up a .308/.386/.462 line thus far ... B.J. Surhoff gave Segui a day off to rest his sore knee on Tuesday ...

* Sunday's starter, Sir Sidney Ponson, was utterly brilliant in his last start on Tuesday ... In the O's' 9-1 win over Tampa Bay, Ponson went the distance, allowing just four hits and one walk ... Although he struck out just two, 71 of his 88 (!) pitches were for strikes ... Ponson: "My sinker was sinking and they hit the ball in the ground" ... Only six Tampa batters faced a 1-0 count in the game ... Ponson admitted that the Rays' propensity for first-pitch hacking helped him out: "I don't like strikeouts...When you throw strikeouts, you have to throw a lot of pitches. Why throw three, when you can throw one to get an out?" ...

* With the team winning, Larry Bigbie's sluggish start (.208 with a .271 OBP) hasn't cost him any playing time ... Bigbie did, however, hit the decisive home run off of Justin Speier in last Saturday's 5-3 win ... Bigbie's not concerned: "I'm putting good swings on the ball, but the hits aren't coming. If I was really struggling and hitting little tappers, I'd be worried" ...

* Last night's Tampa-Baltimore game featured a starting pitching match-up between two players who went the same way in the same trade last season -- Kurt Ainsworth and Damian Moss ...

* Luis Matos is also slumping, as he's 1 for his last 11 (.091) ... Mazzilli continues to pencil him into centre, despite his ugly .176/.296/.196 line ... Matos has just eight singles and one double -- which was all the way back on April 6 -- to show for his season ...

* Chris Smith, the Orioles' first-round pick (seventh overall) in 2001 and yet another lefthanded pitching prospect, hit 90 mph this week, delighting the O's brass ... Smith missed the entire 2003 season with rotator cuff surgery ...

* Tomorrow will mark the 50th anniversary of the debut of the Orioles' first African-American player, reliever Jehosie Heard ... Heard was a teammate with the 16-year-old Willie Mays with the Birmingham Black Barons. Heard's pre-majors journey included a stint on Vancouver Island, with Victoria of the Class A Western International League ... When Heard made his Oriole debut in 1954, Baltimore was the only AL city with segregated hotels ...

Probable Batting Orders

*Note: The Jays are not scheduled to start a lefthanded starter this series.

vs. RH

4 Roberts
5 Mora
6 Tejada
3 Palmeiro
2 J Lopez
9 Gibbons
DH Segui
8 Matos
7 Bigbie


Pitching Probables

Friday: LH DuBose vs. Towers
Saturday: LH Bedard vs. Hentgen
Sunday: RH Ponson vs. Halladay

Bullpen Usage

Long: Bauer R, R Lopez R
Short: Groom L, Parrish L
Setup: Ryan L, DeJean R
Closer: Julio R

Advance Scout: Orioles, April 22-24 | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_A - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#69196) #
Ontario's own Erik Bedard, will start -- legally -- for the first time since his illegal start
Illegal starter? That sounds almost as twisted as an illegal immigrant but something tells me Bedard wasn't thrown out of the state for being an Oriole. What actually happened?

Melvin Mora
As long as Mora continues to hit AND boot balls I can be happy as a fan and a fantasy owner
Mike Green - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#69197) #
Reed Johnson leading off + Melvin Mora at third = bunt. Wonder if we'll see it. Great job with the Advance Scout, Mike D.
_Jurgen - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#69198) #
Assuming SuperLopez isn't exposed to Kryptonite, if any two of Ainsworth, Riley, Bedard, and DuBose can turn into consitent quality starters this year, this is a much better team than I gave them credit for in the off-season.

If all four find a groove they're probably (gasp) better than the 2004 Jays.

Maybe Joe Morgan isn't crazy after all.

I'm not so sure any club will be able to win 100 games in the East anymore.
Craig B - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#69199) #
If all four find a groove they're probably (gasp) better than the 2004 Jays.

Yeah, and if all four of the Jays' iffy starters in 2004 had "found a groove", they would probably have won at least the American League pennant if not the World Series.

There is no event less likely to happen in baseball than for four not-particularly-heralded young pitchers to have success together. In fact, it may well have never happened before.
Mike D - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#69200) #
A, the Orioles called Bedard up prematurely. They called him up ten days after the 25-man roster was announced (March 30), when in fact the rule states that you can't call anyone up until ten days since the particular team's first game, which was April 4.

The ineligible Bedard started a game, at Tampa Bay, before the ten-day period had run. Interestingly, Bedard got roughed up for three runs early and got a quick hook. The Orioles then came back to win. The Devil Rays protested that the game should be replayed or forfeited, but MLB instead slapped the O's with a fine.

Everything's on the level for this weekend.
Gitz - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#69201) #
Craig, I agree with Jurgen here -- to a point. (I mean, c'mon. Let's not get carried away.)

Riley and Ainsworth are somewhat heralded, and DuBose was a former #1 pick of the A's, though, granted, it wasn't Boy Genius Billy Beane who drafted him, or else he'd be far more hyped, but he was pretty good last year in very limited duty, and he's been OK this year, at least against the Jays, which, admittedly, has not been all that difficult, just as it wouldn't be that hard for me to finally end this sentence.

But, yeah, you're right: asking four young pitchers, regardless whether you've got four Grade A prospects, to succeed as a group is a tall order, as they say. One or two could emerge, but no way do all four.
Mike Green - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#69202) #
Yes, the O's could be very good if two of Riley, Ainsworth, Bedard and Dubose are good and two are OK. Remember the Royals of 84 and 85-Saberhagen, Gubicza and Danny Jackson came on fast.

I'd say that the chances of this happening are maybe 1 in 10. It would not surprise me at all if Riley and Dubose are quite good- sub 3.7 ERAs say, and Ainsworth and Bedard end up with sub 4.7 ERAs. Add in Ponson, a half-decent bullpen and a very good offence and you have a winning ballclub.
Craig B - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#69203) #
Hey yeah! Those Royals are a great example of a team that landed a bunch of real good young pitching all at once. Good one, Mike.

So it can happen.

I'd say that the chances of this happening are maybe 1 in 10

I'd say maybe 100-1, maybe 125-1. That represents a 2-1 shot against for each player, which looks right.
_Cristian - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#69204) #
Last week, my BBFL team sat Dubose against the Jays and it cost me the week. Any thoughts on whether I should start him today? I'm leaning towards yes.
_earlweaverfan - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#69205) #
I am with all those people who say it is really hard for several young pitchers with one baseball club to burst on the scene and succeed at one time.

I believe that, even though one might argue that last year's Marlins were an example of that with Willis, Penny and Beckett all taking off at an early stage in their careers. (Sure, not all were rookies, but then neither is Ainsworth, e.g.)

If true, the implications of that scenario being hard to pull off (125 to 1, e.g.) are not happy for the Jays. I keep hearing from Jays fans that 2005 or 2006 will be the year of the breakthrough, but that scenario seems to count on McGowan, Bush, and Rosario hitting the starting roster (not to mention League and Peterson in the pen), and all of them living up to their potential, early on.

I do not believe it, and so I think 2007, and maybe 2008 will be the first realistic shot.
Gitz - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#69206) #
"The Year Of The Breakthrough?" Wrong thread to wonder post about an Al Stewart song, and that song's probably too good to belong on a worst-song list. (Do I have to do a smiley face to indicate I'm joking?)
Mike Green - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#69207) #
Cristian, assuming that your pitching is average or worse, I'd let Dubose pitch. Go ahead, sue me, if I'm wrong.
_Cristian - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#69208) #
My 30+ innings of 6+ ERA tells me that my pitching qualifies as worse than average. I'll start him but still cheer for the Blue Jays to clobber him, safe in the knowledge that even a Dubose meltdown won't have a huge detrimental effect on my my week.
_Magpie - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#69209) #
The 85 Royals are interesting - and its always depressing to remember them - but the young KC pitchers were obviously much further along in establishing themselves as major league pitchers. Coming into this season, the Orioles four young arms had a combined total of 10 ML wins and none of them had spent an entire season in a ML rotation. Saberhagen and Gubicza both won 10 games in 1984 (and Danny Jackson made 11 starts, going 2-6).

So the 2004 Orioles are not likely to be like the 85 Royals. OK? Please? Please? Not them too, we already got the Sox and the Yankees to fret over.... Give us a break sometime, Lord...
Coach - Friday, April 23 2004 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#69210) #
"I don't like strikeouts...When you throw strikeouts, you have to throw a lot of pitches. Why throw three, when you can throw one to get an out?"

Who knew that Ponson would ever figure this out? Not me.

Mazzilli: "The key is try to put your guys in situations to succeed"

That's a fine philosophy, but my first impression was that Lee also likes small-ball a bit too much, given his personnel. We'll see if he's any different at home.
_3RunHomer - Saturday, April 24 2004 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#69211) #
There is no event less likely to happen in baseball than for four not-particularly-heralded young pitchers to have success together.

Baseball Prospectus has certainly heralded Riley, Bedard, and Ainsworth over the last 3 years. Their injuries have hidden their talent to some degree.

The Os have their young talented pitchers in the majors this year ... so does that put them one season ahead of the Jays in the development cycle? The Jays young arms should begin arriving late this season ... at the same time that the Os' second wave (Maine, Bautista) arrive.
_Alex - Wednesday, April 28 2004 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#69212) #
http://www.iruda.com/smartsearch.cgi?username=&keywords=Orioles+Tickets
For the Orioles, don't forget Adam Lowen who could be the brightest
star of them all, a hard throwing lefty from Canada.
Advance Scout: Orioles, April 22-24 | 17 comments | Create New Account
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